V2X (VVX) – Follow-on Award


Thursday, September 24, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Business. V2X continues to add business with a recent follow-on award from the Air Force for base support services and a position on an ID/IQ supporting the Air Force’s Carriage Equipment Production Effort for the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) cruise missile program. Such awards demonstrate V2X’s strong position to bid for and win new and expanded business, in our opinion.

Follow-on. The Department of War announced that V2X Systems has been awarded an undefinitized contract action with a not-to-exceed ceiling price of $231.8 million, a modification to a previously awarded contract for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. The modification brings the total cumulative face value of the contract to $594.2 million. Work will be performed at Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base, Iraq, and is expected to be completed by July 17, 2027. Foreign Military Sales funds in the amount of $115.9 million are being obligated at the time of award.


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Swarmer to Acquire Ratel Robotics for Up to $224 Million, Expanding Into Unmanned Ground Systems

Swarmer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWMR) announced Thursday that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ratel Robotics, a leading Ukrainian manufacturer of unmanned ground vehicles, in a transaction valued at up to $224 million if all earnout milestones are achieved.

The acquisition would mark Swarmer’s first major deal under Chairman Erik Prince and significantly expand the company beyond autonomous drone software by adding a portfolio of combat-proven ground vehicles already being used in Ukraine for logistics, casualty evacuation, reconnaissance, demining and drone-launch missions.

The consideration will consist of a mix of cash and stock, with closing subject to customary legal, regulatory and shareholder approvals. More than 300 Ratel employees are expected to join Swarmer following the transaction, bringing the combined company to nearly 500 employees. Ratel founder and CEO Taras Ostapchuk is expected to remain in his role and report to Swarmer President and U.S. CEO Alex Fink.

From Drone Software to a Broader Autonomous Platform

Swarmer has built its business around vendor-agnostic autonomy software designed to allow a single operator to control large numbers of unmanned systems in real time. Its technology focuses on swarm coordination, distributed decision-making and integration across multiple unmanned platforms rather than manufacturing individual drones itself.

The company says its systems have supported more than 100,000 real-world combat missions in Ukraine since first being deployed there in April 2024. That operating history has given Swarmer access to large amounts of battlefield telemetry, sensor data and operational feedback that can be used to improve autonomous performance and resilience.

Ratel adds the hardware side of that equation. Its unmanned ground vehicles are designed for missions that place soldiers at particularly high risk, including supply delivery, casualty evacuation, engineering operations, mine clearance and strike support. The company is also expanding into unmanned aerial systems, mobile workshops and solar-powered trailers.

For Swarmer, the strategic logic is to combine its autonomy software with a broader base of battlefield-tested platforms rather than remaining solely at the software layer.

Ratel Brings Scale and Existing Defense Contracts

Ratel is not an early-stage prototype developer. The company has already secured approximately $86 million in contracts this year and is in discussions with multiple NATO countries through the “Build With Ukraine” initiative.

According to Swarmer, Ratel products represented approximately 37% of the 11 billion Ukrainian hryvnia, or roughly $247 million, spent by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense Procurement Agency on unmanned ground vehicle contracts between January 1 and April 18, 2026.

That installed base is particularly important in a defense market increasingly emphasizing systems that have already been tested in active combat environments. Ratel’s serial Ratel H and Ratel M vehicles carry NATO stock numbers and AQAP 2110 certification, giving the company a foundation for expansion beyond Ukraine.

Ground Robots Are Becoming a Bigger Part of Modern Warfare

The acquisition also reflects a broader shift in defense technology. Ukraine has become one of the world’s most active proving grounds for unmanned systems, with aerial drones receiving much of the attention early in the war. Ground robotics, however, are increasingly being used for missions where sending personnel creates unnecessary risk, including logistics, reconnaissance, casualty evacuation and perimeter support.

That trend fits directly with Swarmer’s view of Ratel’s vehicles as more than standalone ground robots. Management believes UGVs can serve as mobile launch platforms for drones, interceptors and other autonomous assets, creating integrated systems that operate across both ground and air domains.

Consolidation Comes to Ukraine’s Defense-Tech Industry

The transaction may also be significant as an early example of consolidation within Ukraine’s highly fragmented defense-technology sector. The country has developed hundreds of drone and robotics companies during the war, many of which have built products quickly around immediate battlefield requirements. That decentralized ecosystem helped accelerate innovation, but it has also produced a large number of relatively small manufacturers that can face difficulty scaling production, accessing Western capital and selling into larger NATO procurement programs.

Swarmer itself appears to be positioning the transaction as the beginning of a broader platform strategy. Prince has said the company intends to assemble battlefield-tested systems into a more integrated defense-technology offering, suggesting additional acquisitions could eventually follow.

Building an Integrated Autonomous Defense Company

For investors, the acquisition changes the profile of Swarmer in an important way. Until now, the company’s core value proposition has centered on the software layer — providing autonomy, coordination and decision-making capabilities that can work across different unmanned platforms. Ratel would add manufacturing, physical systems, existing government contracts and a sizable workforce operating directly inside Ukraine’s defense ecosystem.

That combination could allow Swarmer to pursue larger integrated programs while continuing to deploy its autonomy technology across third-party systems. Ratel extends that strategy onto the ground.

If the transaction closes and the two companies successfully integrate their technologies, Swarmer would emerge with a much broader portfolio spanning autonomous software, aerial systems and unmanned ground vehicles — all built around technologies that have already been exposed to real-world combat conditions.

For a defense industry increasingly focused on autonomy, interoperability and reducing the number of personnel placed in high-risk environments, that could make the Ratel acquisition more than simply an expansion of Swarmer’s product catalog. It could be an early step toward building a larger, multi-domain autonomous defense platform.

Investors following the broader defense technology sector can also explore Noble Capital Markets coverage of T3 Defense (NASDAQ: DFNS), a defense-focused holding company pursuing growth through acquisitions, and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (NASDAQ: KTOS), whose portfolio includes unmanned systems and other national security technologies.

T3 Defense (DFNS) – Reports 2Q26 Results


Monday, August 24, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. T3 Defense filed its 10Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The Company did not issue a press release on the quarterly results, nor did management hold a conference call. Revenue came in below our expectations, but gross margin and operating loss were better than expected. Non-cash items significantly impacted the bottom line. We hope to speak with management shortly to provide a deeper review of the quarter and update our models.

2Q26 Results. Revenue was $4.0 million, below our $4.5 million projection. Gross margin was 25.4% exceeding our 11.1% estimate. T3 reported an operating loss of $3.4 million compared to our projection of a $3.9 million loss. Net loss from continuing operations was $85.7 million and net loss was $81.4 million. T3 reported a loss per share of $182.80 (adjusted for the recent 1-for-125 reverse stock split).


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – That Didn’t Take Long


Friday, August 07, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

From Opportunity to Reality. Less than 48 hours after speaking of these potential opportunities (among a bunch of other opportunities), Kratos has been awarded a U.S. Army contract related to the Javelin Missile System, and Kratos partner Boeing announced it has been awarded a funding contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs that incorporate Kratos turbojet engines.

JDAM. The Air Force awarded Boeing a $75 million production contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs. The long-range variant adds a Kratos TDI-J85 turbojet providing 200 pounds of thrust to enable jets to attack from a much safer distance. The 2027 National Defense Authorization Act includes about $277 million for 1,150 upgraded JDAM guidance tail kits with M-Code GPS for the legacy munitions. Industry experts note the new version will cost far less than more exquisite stand-off munitions, so they should be considered as an affordable mass capability, playing right into Kratos’ key strengths, in our opinion.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Strong 2Q26 Top Line Growth; Momentum Continues to Build


Wednesday, August 05, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. Kratos’ second quarter results reflect strong execution by the Company, in our view. The Company’s strategy, including making internally funded investments to be first-to-market with relevant hardware and software that is engineered up front for affordable mass production at scale and is aligned with the Department of War’s priorities, continues to resonate, in our view.

2Q26 Results. Revenues for the second quarter were $458.8 million, above management’s guide of $400 million-$410 million. We were at $405 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $38.2 million, above the high end of the estimated range of $30 million-$35 million, reflecting the increased revenue and revenue mix. We had forecast $33 million. GAAP net income for 2Q26 was $4.4 million, and GAAP EPS was $0.02, compared to $2.9 million and  $0.02, respectively, for 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.21 for 2Q26, compared to $0.11 for 2Q25.


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V2X (VVX) – Solid Second Quarter Results


Tuesday, August 04, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. V2X’s reported strong second quarter performance reflecting consistent strategic execution, robust demand for the Company’s differentiated capabilities, and continued alignment to national security priorities. The Company’s recent awards across modernization, global training, aerospace, and mission readiness reinforce the value of V2X’s end-to-end solutions, ability to support global no-fail missions, and pursuit of profitable growth opportunities, in our view.

2Q26 Results. V2X reported revenue of $1.26 billion, up $178.3 million year-over-year, representing a 16.5% increase. We were at $1.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $89.8 million, with a margin of 7.1%, representing an increase of 9% from the prior year. We had forecast $87 million and a 7.3% margin. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.64, up from $1.33 last year. We were at $1.44.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – More New Business


Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Business. Kratos continues to receive new business, confirming the large growth opportunities available, in our view. The new business highlights the Company’s operating philosophy of having the right products, in the right space, at the right time. The recent awards add to the pile of new business Kratos has been awarded so far in 2026.

C-UAS Award. Kratos was awarded a sole-source, single-award Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract for approximately $156 million by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Secure Transportation (OST) in support of Project Solar Shield. Under this new contract award, Kratos will provide mobile Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS) platforms designed to support OST’s critical National Security mission. The OST is responsible for the safe and secure ground and air transportation of nuclear weapons, weapon components, and special nuclear materials. Kratos was selected following a rigorous technical evaluation.


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T3 Defense (DFNS) – Stock Split Complete


Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reverse Stock Split. As outlined in prior reports, T3 underwent a 1-for-125 reverse stock split to regain compliance with Nasdaq regulations. As a result, the number of outstanding shares declined from approximately 139.8 million to approximately 1.1 million. We adjusted our model to reflect the impact on earnings per share.

Impact. Assuming the stock split only impacts the forward quarters, the 2Q adjusted net loss increases to $2.87/sh, 3Q to a loss of $2.16/sh, and 4Q to a net loss of $1.75/sh, up from a previous projected net loss of $0.06/sh, $0.03/sh, and $0.02 per share, respectively, Full year net loss increases to $3.90/sh, up from a prior full year net loss forecast of $0.50/sh. If we adjusted 1Q26 EPS loss to the 1.1 million outstanding shares, full-year net loss rises to $30.26/sh, which includes a number of one-time non-cash charges. The share change does not impact our estimates for adjusted EBITDA, which remains at a loss of $6 million for 2026.


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Lockheed Martin Unveiled a Patriot Missile That Costs Half as Much. The Real Story Is What It Means for the Defense Supply Chain

Lockheed Martin introduced a new, lower-cost version of its Patriot interceptor at the Farnborough Airshow on Monday, a move that reflects how fundamentally the economics of air defense have changed under the pressure of real-world conflict. The PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector, or PAC-3 ACE, is projected to cost less than half the price of the current PAC-3 MSE interceptor, which runs approximately $4 million per missile according to US Army budget documents. Initial production is expected to begin within 36 months, developed and manufactured jointly with US and European industry partners.

The announcement is not just a product launch. It is a direct response to a cost asymmetry problem that the Iran conflict has made impossible to ignore.

The Math That Forced the Decision

Throughout Operation Epic Fury, US forces in the Middle East have burned through finite interceptor stockpiles to counter Iranian drones that cost a fraction of the missiles used to destroy them. A single PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs roughly $4 million. An Iranian Shahed drone costs approximately $35,000. When you are spending more than 100 times the cost of the threat to defeat it, the economics of attrition work against you regardless of how effective the technology is.

That disparity has pushed the Pentagon and its prime contractors to rethink the entire approach to air defense procurement. The Missile Defense Agency launched a Low-Cost Interceptor program in late 2025 with a target price of $750,000 per unit. Lockheed’s PAC-3 ACE, at under $2 million, sits in the middle of the cost spectrum between that target and the current MSE, offering a bridge solution that can enter production faster because it is built on existing PAC-3 guidance technology and is compatible with legacy Patriot systems and the Integrated Battle Command System.

The European Manufacturing Push

Lockheed is not building this missile alone. The company has signaled its intention to develop PAC-3 ACE jointly with European defense partners and has expressed interest in eventually producing an entirely European-sourced variant manufactured on the continent. This follows a July 7 memorandum of understanding with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to establish the first European production center for the Army Tactical Missile System.

The pattern is clear: Lockheed is investing in distributed manufacturing capacity across allied nations rather than concentrating production domestically. That approach strengthens the broader defense industrial base, reduces supply chain bottlenecks, and gives NATO members the ability to produce and stockpile interoperable interceptors locally rather than depending entirely on American production during a crisis.

Where Small Cap Defense and Industrial Companies Fit

For investors tracking the defense and industrial sectors below the $2 billion market cap threshold, the shift toward distributed, cost-optimized defense manufacturing creates a meaningful opportunity set. When a prime contractor like Lockheed commits to building cheaper weapons with a broader supplier base across multiple countries, it pulls smaller specialized manufacturers, component suppliers, and defense services companies into the production chain.

Defense services contractors like V2X, which provides mission-critical support across military operations and logistics, and specialized defense technology companies like T3 Defense sit in the exact part of the ecosystem that benefits when defense procurement scales horizontally rather than concentrating vertically through a single prime. Precision component manufacturers like NN Inc., which produces highly engineered parts for defense and industrial applications, are also positioned in the supply chain that affordable, high-volume interceptor production would activate.

The defense industry spent decades optimizing for performance at any cost. The Iran conflict exposed that model’s limitations in real time. What comes next is a manufacturing and procurement shift toward affordability, volume, and distributed production, and the smaller companies with the right capabilities are the ones best positioned to fill the gaps the primes cannot fill alone.

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Building Momentum


Friday, July 17, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Momentum. Recent awards, facilities expansion, world events, and increasing defense spending worldwide are combining to provide positive momentum to Kratos’ business, in our view. With proven, existing products focused on key areas of new Defense priorities, we continue to believe Kratos is well-positioned to capitalize on the current operating environment.

$400M Hypersonics. The Company recently received approximately $400 million in funding from the Department of War (DoW) related to certain hypersonic systems and other National Security related programs. Notably, beginning in June and both increasing and accelerating into July, Kratos is seeing significant funding from the DoW, which is expected to accelerate the Company’s organic growth rate, increase operating cash receipts, while reducing customer receivables, inventory, and assets where Kratos had previously “leaned forward” to ensure Kratos met or exceeded customers’ schedule-related and other expectations.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – New Contract with ICE; Raising Price Target


Thursday, July 16, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Contract. The GEO Group has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 1,188-bed Big Horn Facility. GEO has entered into a lease agreement with the Facility owner. We view the new award positively and expect to see more such announcements going forward as ICE continues to seek out partners to assist the Agency in fulfilling its mission.

Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, excluding transportation revenue. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.


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T3 Defense (DFNS) – Reverse Split


Thursday, July 16, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reverse Split. T3 is implementing a 50-for-1 reverse stock split. The reverse stock split will become effective as of 12:01 a.m., Eastern Time, on July 20, 2026, and the Company’s common stock will begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market on a split-adjusted basis when the market opens on July 20, 2026.

Rationale. The Company is implementing the reverse stock split to raise the per-share bid price of the Company’s common stock above $1.00 per share and bring the Company back into compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a). The Company will have regained compliance once the Company’s shares trade at or above $1.00 for a minimum of 10 consecutive trading days, at which time Nasdaq will provide the Company with notice that it has regained compliance.


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T3 Defense (DFNS) – Another Acquisition


Monday, July 13, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another Acquisition. On Friday, T3 Defense announced the acquisition of a 60% stake in Project35, a leading Israeli developer and manufacturer of drones, aerial interceptors and counter-UAV systems for Tier-1 defense customers in Israel and around the world. The acquisition launches T3 Defense into the center of the fast-expanding drone and counter-UAV (C-UAV) armament market, adding field-proven platforms and a new class of autonomous interceptor to its portfolio.

Terms. Under the terms of the transaction, T3 acquired its stake for 21,059,871 shares of T3 Defense common stock and a 12% promissory note due one day before the anniversary date in the principal amount of $1,250,000. At a current stock price of approximately $0.11, the value of the deal is about $3.56 million. Following closing, T3 Defense expects to work with Project35’s management team to support commercialization, production scaling, and expansion into additional customer programs, in addition to investing $2.5 million directly into the company’s operations over the next 12 months.


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