Bitcoin Depot (BTM) – Transaction Slowdown Drives Significant Fundamental Deterioration


Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delayed filing and significant operating deterioration. Bitcoin Depot disclosed it is unable to timely file its Form 10-Q, citing unreasonable effort and expense, while preliminary fiscal Q1 2026 results reflected a sharp deterioration in operating performance driven by regulatory impacts and enhanced compliance controls.

Revenue and gross profit collapse. Revenue declined 49.2% year-over-year, falling by $80.7 million in the quarter, while gross profit declined 85.5% to $4.5 million from $31.2 million in the prior-year period, reflecting significantly lower transaction volumes and substantial margin compression.


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Bitcoin Clears $80,000 for the First Time Since January — Is the Recovery Finally Real?

Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 barrier early Monday morning, touching an intraday high of $80,529 during Asian trading hours — its highest price since January 31, 2026. The move snapped a three-month ceiling that had resisted four separate recovery attempts and sent shockwaves through the short-seller community.

The catalyst wasn’t purely crypto-native. Over the weekend, President Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a U.S. military operation to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. The announcement, combined with signals of progress on Iran’s 14-point peace proposal, sent Brent crude retreating from a four-year high near $126 to around $107 a barrel. Risk appetite returned swiftly across global markets — and Bitcoin was a primary beneficiary.

Short Sellers Got Crushed

The $80K breach triggered a short squeeze that market participants had been bracing for. Approximately $303 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with $108 million of those forced out in a single hour as BTC held above the key level. Traders had been aggressively positioned against this break — and when the wall cracked, forced buybacks only amplified the move higher.

More Than a Price Level

The $80,000 threshold carries structural weight beyond its psychological significance. By pushing past $80K, Bitcoin also reclaimed its bull market support band — a moving average zone traders use to determine whether the broader trend is bullish or bearish — for the first time since November 2025. The previous four recovery attempts since the November decline each failed to accomplish this.

Bitcoin had spent the first quarter of 2026 largely trapped below $75,000, falling as low as $62,000 in February before a steady April recovery added roughly 14% month-over-month. Bitcoin is now up over 17% in the past month, with Ethereum gaining over 13% during the same period.

Institutional Demand Has Been Building Quietly

While retail sentiment has been largely absent, institutional buyers have been accumulating steadily. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $630 million in inflows in a single session last week, signaling strong conviction at these price levels. Bitcoin held on exchanges has simultaneously fallen to a seven-year low — a dynamic that historically precedes supply-driven price appreciation.

What Comes Next

The immediate technical picture points to a cluster of resistance between $82,000 and $84,500. A sustained move above $82,000 — roughly where Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average sits — would mark the first confirmed trend reversal signal of the year and could force remaining short sellers to cover at higher prices, further accelerating the move.

Prediction market participants currently give Bitcoin a 47% chance of reaching $85,000 by month-end, with only 21% odds of clearing $90,000 in May. The base case has BTC consolidating in the $78,000–$83,500 range while the market digests the breakout.

Still, the structural shift is notable. Three months of failed attempts, a geopolitical tailwind, a short squeeze, and a reclaimed technical level — for the first time in 2026, Bitcoin bulls have something concrete to point to. Whether this move holds will depend heavily on continued ETF inflows, macro stability, and whether spot demand catches up with the futures-driven April rally.

The $80,000 level has flipped from ceiling to battleground. The next few weeks will determine which side wins.

Iran’s Crypto Toll Play on the Strait of Hormuz Just Sent Bitcoin Above $71K

A geopolitical flashpoint became a crypto catalyst on Wednesday morning when reports emerged that Iran is moving to charge oil tankers a $1-per-barrel toll for Strait of Hormuz passage — with payment demanded exclusively in cryptocurrency.

The news hit markets fast. Bitcoin surged past $72,700 before settling above $71,700, a gain of roughly 5% on the session. Solana jumped 7% and Ethereum climbed 8% before both pared their steepest gains. No specific cryptocurrency was designated for payment, which may have contributed to the broad-based rally across the majors.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most consequential oil chokepoint. An estimated 20% of global petroleum supply transits through it daily. Tankers crossing the strait typically carry between 500,000 and 2 million barrels of crude, meaning a single passage could generate a toll ranging from $500,000 to $2 million — paid in digital assets.

Under the proposed framework, shipowners would be required to email Iranian authorities with a full cargo manifest. Iran would then determine the fee for safe passage. Vessels traveling empty would be permitted to cross at no charge. The approach essentially creates a state-sanctioned crypto revenue stream tied directly to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The timing is significant. This development surfaces just a day after President Trump announced a conditional ceasefire with Iran, one that specifically required the immediate and safe reopening of the strait. Iran has been using attacks on vessels in and around the Persian Gulf as leverage in negotiations, and has repeatedly asserted sovereignty over the waterway as a core condition for any peace agreement.

Despite the ceasefire announcement, transit through the strait as of Wednesday morning remained minimal. Maritime intelligence data indicates no meaningful resumption of shipping traffic, and sources in the region expressed skepticism about the near-term stability of the situation. The sentiment shift may be moving faster than actual shipping behavior or insurance underwriting.

The crypto angle here is more than a headline grab. If Iran formalizes a system where sovereign passage fees are collected in digital assets, it represents one of the most significant real-world use cases for cryptocurrency in geopolitical history. It would also signal that sanctioned regimes are increasingly viewing crypto not just as a workaround for dollar-denominated financial systems, but as a legitimate transactional layer for international commerce — even state-enforced commerce.

For crypto investors, this cuts two ways. On one hand, institutional demand signals a meaningful maturation of the asset class. On the other, the association with a sanctioned government conducting what amounts to maritime extortion is the kind of regulatory ammunition that tends to accelerate oversight conversations in Washington.

Oil markets told the other side of the story Wednesday. Crude futures dropped more than 15%, reflecting the prospect of a reopened strait and normalized supply flows — a sharp divergence from crypto’s upward trajectory.

The Strait of Hormuz has long been the pressure valve of global energy markets. What’s new is that it may now be generating pressure on crypto markets too.

Bitcoin Depot (BTM) – Leadership Reset Amid Regulatory Pressure and Revenue Diversification Efforts


Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Leadership transition introduces seasoned external operator. The company announced that CEO Scott Buchanan has stepped down effective March 23, 2026, with founder Brandon Mintz stepping down as Executive Chairman and remaining on the Board in an advisory capacity. The Board appointed Alex Holmes as CEO and Chairman. Mr. Holmes brings relevant experience from his tenure as CEO of MoneyGram, particularly in payments infrastructure and regulatory compliance.

Transition comes at a pivotal time for the business. The leadership changes follow a quarter impacted by regulatory headwinds and ahead of a guided 30% to 40% decline in core BTM revenue in 2026. At the same time, the company is beginning to pursue new business initiatives, including its expansion into peer-to-peer betting and merchant cash advances. While the company noted the departures were not due to disagreements, in our view, the timing suggests the Board may be positioning the company for its next phase of execution as it navigates both regulatory pressure and early-stage diversification efforts.


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Circle Stock Craters 20% as Clarity Act’s Stablecoin Yield Language Rattles Crypto Markets

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) suffered its steepest single-session decline since going public on Tuesday, plunging as much as 20% after reports surfaced that the latest draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act contains language that could severely restrict stablecoin yield programs — a business model central to how Circle and its partners generate revenue.

Coinbase (COIN), Circle’s primary distribution partner for its USDC stablecoin, fell roughly 8% in sympathy. The Circle-Coinbase revenue-sharing arrangement is a key reason Coinbase is directly exposed to any regulatory changes affecting USDC economics.

What the Clarity Act Says — and Why It Matters

The latest version of the Clarity Act, shaped by a compromise crafted by Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Thom Tillis, would ban yield payments for simply holding a stablecoin. Industry insiders who got their first look at the revised draft on Monday described the language as overly narrow and unclear, creating significant uncertainty for platforms that have built yield-based products around stablecoins.

The compromise would allow rewards programs tied to a user’s stablecoin activity, but not their balance — a meaningful distinction that would effectively prohibit programs that function like interest-bearing deposit accounts.

This is not a brand-new fight. The banking lobby has pushed hard to restrict stablecoin yield because yield-bearing stablecoins would functionally compete with savings accounts — if a stablecoin issuer offered 4% on a digital dollar balance, consumers have little incentive to park money in a traditional 0.5% checking account. Congress, through the GENIUS Act signed into law last July, already prohibited stablecoin issuers from paying yield directly. The Clarity Act debate is now about whether third-party platforms — like Coinbase — can offer those returns as an intermediary.

The OCC, in its proposed rulemaking to implement the GENIUS Act, suggested that close financial ties between stablecoin issuers and crypto platforms handling their tokens would make it highly likely that any yield paid through an intermediary constitutes an attempt to evade the GENIUS Act’s prohibition. That regulatory posture adds a second layer of pressure on the Circle-Coinbase model even before the Clarity Act is finalized.

Circle’s Recent Run — and the Reversal

The selloff comes after an extraordinary run for Circle shares. The stock rallied approximately 110% from around $60 in late February to a high of roughly $130 just last week, driven by strong quarterly results, explosive USDC circulation growth, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady — a key input since Circle generates the bulk of its revenue from interest earned on the Treasury-backed reserves underpinning USDC.

The company has also been expanding its footprint beyond stablecoin issuance. Last year, Circle launched Arc, a specialized blockchain designed to support global payments, foreign exchange, and tokenized real-world assets using USDC as its native currency — a bid to position itself as a broader fintech infrastructure play.

The Stakes for the Broader Crypto Ecosystem

Though the crypto industry scored a major win when the GENIUS Act became the first major U.S. law to govern a segment of the crypto industry, it was designed as the first step of a two-part policy approach, with the Clarity Act meant to be the more consequential full-fledged framework for digital assets.

Stablecoin yield has become the single largest sticking point standing between the crypto industry and that comprehensive regulatory framework. Until Tuesday’s language leak, markets had been pricing in a favorable resolution. That assumption just took a significant hit.

Bitcoin Depot (BTM) – Wave of Regulatory Action Weighs on Outlook


Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results. Bitcoin Depot reported Q4 revenue of $116.0 million, above our estimate of $112.0 million, reflecting somewhat stronger transaction activity than anticipated despite emerging regulatory headwinds. Adj. EBITDA of $1.6 million was below our forecast of $2.5 million due to higher operating expenses during the quarter.

Initial steps toward revenue diversification. The company is beginning to expand beyond the core Bitcoin ATM network through new fintech initiatives. It recently acquired Kutt, a peer-to-peer social betting platform, and launched ReadyBucks, a merchant cash advance platform targeting small businesses and gig workers. Management indicated that both initiative are starting small and not expected to materially impact near-term revenue.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – February Ethereum Metrics


Monday, March 09, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of February 2026. As of month end, the Company held approximately 155,434 ETH versus 155,239 ETH at the end of January. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,283 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,269, or about 89% of its total holdings as of February 28th.

Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 314 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 2.7%. Based on a closing ETH price of $1,965, as of February 28, 2026, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $305.4 million.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $71K as Crypto Markets Shake Off Geopolitical Shock

Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound this week, briefly climbing above $71,000 as digital assets recovered from a global risk-off selloff tied to escalating conflict in the Middle East. The move highlights the continued volatility—and resilience—of the world’s largest cryptocurrency as investors reassess its role in uncertain macro conditions.

The price of Bitcoin surged as much as 5.7% during Wednesday trading, reaching roughly $71,890, its highest level in nearly a month. While the rally cooled slightly during early New York trading, Bitcoin remained firmly above $71,000. Ether followed with a similar move, climbing more than 6% to around $2,090, while most major cryptocurrencies traded higher.

The rebound follows several turbulent sessions across global markets. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated after U.S. and Israeli forces carried out strikes in Iran, triggering widespread volatility across equities, commodities, and digital assets. Bitcoin dropped sharply during the initial reaction, briefly falling to about $63,000 before buyers stepped back in.

A key factor supporting the rebound has been continued demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States. According to Bloomberg data, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $680 million in combined inflows over Monday and Tuesday, suggesting institutional investors remain active participants in the asset class despite recent market stress.

For small- and middle-market investors, ETF flows remain an important signal of broader market sentiment. These investment vehicles have become one of the primary bridges connecting traditional capital markets with the crypto ecosystem. When inflows accelerate, they can amplify price momentum by channeling new institutional capital into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s recent performance has also revived the long-running debate over whether cryptocurrencies can function as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises. Crypto advocates have long positioned Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but that narrative has been inconsistent in practice.

In recent months, gold surged to record highs while Bitcoin struggled through a prolonged correction. Even after this week’s rally, Bitcoin remains roughly 40% below its October peak following a multi-month downturn.

However, over the past several days the relationship has temporarily flipped. While gold prices briefly dipped earlier this week amid shifting inflation expectations in bond markets, Bitcoin rallied nearly 9% from last Friday levels.

Some analysts believe traders may be positioning for potential monetary easing if global economic conditions deteriorate amid prolonged geopolitical conflict. Digital assets, which tend to benefit from liquidity-driven market environments, often attract speculative inflows during periods when investors anticipate easier financial conditions.

Despite the rebound, the broader backdrop remains fragile. Military exchanges between Israel and Iran have entered their fifth day, and global financial markets remain highly sensitive to additional developments. Equity volatility and shifting interest rate expectations continue to influence institutional positioning across asset classes—including crypto.

For now, Bitcoin’s recovery above $70,000 underscores the asset’s ability to rebound quickly after sharp drawdowns. But the same volatility that drives rapid rallies also leaves the market vulnerable to sudden reversals.

For investors, the latest price action serves as a reminder that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the broader macro ecosystem—responding not only to crypto-specific catalysts but also to geopolitical risk, liquidity conditions, and institutional capital flows.

As the digital asset market matures, these cross-market dynamics are likely to play an even larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Bitcoin Depot (BTM) – Reverse Stock Split


Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

BTM 1-for-7 reverse stock split. On February 23, 2026, the company’s Class A common stock began trading on a split-adjusted basis on Nasdaq. The action had been previously authorized by shareholders and approved by the Board and did not reflect any change in operating performance or strategy.

No alteration to economic ownership or fundamentals. Every seven shares outstanding were consolidated into one share, with fractional shares cashed out based on the pre-split VWAP. Authorized shares and par value remained unchanged, while public warrants, equity awards, and other convertible securities were adjusted proportionally, including a mechanical increase in the BTMWW warrant exercise price.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – January Ethereum Metrics


Monday, February 09, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of January 2026. As of month end, the Company held approximately 155,239 ETH versus 155,227 ETH at the end of December. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,236 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,266, or about 89% of its total holdings as of January 31st.

Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 344 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 2.9%. Based on a closing ETH price of $2,449, as of January 31, 2026, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $380.2 million.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital Inc. Reports Monthly Ethereum Treasury and Staking Metrics for January 2026

NEW YORK, February 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Bit Digital, Inc. (Nasdaq: BTBT) (“Bit Digital” or the “Company”) today announced its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of January 2026:

Key Highlights for January 2026

  • As of January 31, 2026, the Company held approximately 155,239.4[1] ETH.
  • Based on a closing ETH price of approximately $2,449, as of January 31, 2026, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $380.2 million.
  • The Company’s total average ETH acquisition price for all holdings was approximately $3,045 as of January 31, 2026.
  • The Company’s total staked ETH was ~138,266, or ~89% of its total holdings, as of January 31, 2026.
  • Staking operations generated approximately 344.0 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 2.9%.
  • Bit Digital shares outstanding were 324,202,059 as of January 31, 2026.
  • The Company maintains ownership of approximately 27.0 million WhiteFiber (WYFI) shares with a market value of approximately $527.6 million as of January 31, 2026. On January 28, 2026, Bit Digital reaffirmed its long-term investment in WhiteFiber and confirmed that it will not sell any of its WhiteFiber shares in any secondary offering or other discretionary disposition during 2026.

About Bit Digital
Bit Digital (NASDAQ: BTBT) is a Strategic Asset Company (SAC) focused on active participation in Ethereum infrastructure and controlling equity exposure to AI/HPC infrastructure through its majority ownership stake in WhiteFiber (NASDAQ: WYFI). The Company purchases and stakes ETH to generate protocol-native yield and participates directly in the Ethereum network. Bit Digital allocates capital with a focus on long-duration, foundational infrastructure and disciplined balance sheet management. For additional information, please contact [email protected] or follow us on LinkedIn or X.

Investor Notice
Investing in our securities involves a high degree of risk. Before making an investment decision, you should carefully consider the risks, uncertainties and forward-looking statements described under “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 (Annual Report) and any subsequently filed Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and any Current Reports on Form 8-K.  If any material risk was to occur, our business, financial condition or results of operations would likely suffer. In that event, the value of our securities could decline and you could lose part or all of your investment. The risks and uncertainties we describe are not the only ones facing us. Additional risks not presently known to us or that we currently deem immaterial may also impair our business operations. In addition, our past financial performance may not be a reliable indicator of future performance, and historical trends should not be used to anticipate results in the future. See “Safe Harbor Statement” below.

Safe Harbor Statement
This press release may contain certain “forward-looking statements” relating to the business of Bit Digital, Inc., and its subsidiary companies. All statements, other than statements of historical fact included herein are “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements are often identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “believes,” “expects,” or similar expressions, involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, and these expectations may prove to be incorrect. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release. The Company’s actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in the Company’s periodic reports that are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available on its website at http://www.sec.gov. All forward-looking statements attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these factors. Other than as required under the securities laws, the Company does not assume a duty to update these forward-looking statements.

[1] Includes approximately 15,236.4 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund.

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $65,000 as Volatility Tests Investor Conviction

Bitcoin has clawed its way back above the $65,000 mark, offering a brief sense of relief after a punishing selloff that has put the cryptocurrency on track for its steepest weekly decline since late 2022. The rebound comes amid signs that a broader rout in global technology stocks may be stabilizing, easing pressure on risk assets that had been aggressively sold across markets.

Despite the bounce, the damage has already been done. Bitcoin is still down nearly 14% on the week, reflecting how quickly sentiment has shifted after months of fragility in digital asset markets. Prices earlier dipped close to $60,000, a level that rattled traders who had grown accustomed to sharp rallies fueled by optimism around artificial intelligence, crypto-friendly political rhetoric, and expanding institutional participation.

The current downturn highlights how closely bitcoin has become linked to the wider tech and macro trade. As leveraged positions in equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies were unwound, bitcoin was swept up in the selloff. What was once marketed as a hedge against traditional markets is again behaving like a high-beta risk asset, moving in step with broader shifts in investor appetite for risk.

Ethereum has followed a similar path. While ether has rebounded toward $1,900, it remains deep in the red for the week and significantly lower year-to-date. The weakness across major tokens underscores the broader cooling of enthusiasm toward crypto after last year’s explosive rally ended abruptly.

Since peaking in early October, the total crypto market has shed roughly $2 trillion in value, according to industry data. More than half of that decline has occurred in just the past month, as investors reassess assumptions that prices would continue climbing without interruption. Analysts point to excessive leverage and crowded positioning as key contributors to the speed and severity of the pullback.

Another headwind has come from U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have seen sustained outflows in recent months. Billions of dollars have exited these products since November, signaling that institutional investors are reducing exposure rather than stepping in to buy the dip. That shift has removed a major source of support that previously helped absorb selling pressure.

Still, some market participants caution against interpreting the move toward $60,000 as a sign that crypto’s long-term story is broken. Instead, they argue the pullback reflects a normalization process after speculative narratives ran ahead of fundamentals. In this view, the current volatility is forcing traders to confront real risk management rather than relying on momentum alone.

Whether bitcoin’s recovery above $65,000 marks the beginning of a more durable rebound remains uncertain. Much will depend on broader market conditions, particularly the trajectory of equities and interest rates. For now, bitcoin’s price action serves as a reminder that even the most popular digital assets are not immune to sharp corrections—and that conviction is tested most when volatility returns.

Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $78,000, but Bearish Momentum Persists

Bitcoin steadied near $78,000 on Monday following a sharp weekend sell-off, but market strategists continue to warn that the recent pause may offer little reassurance to investors expecting a sustained rebound. While prices have stabilized in the short term, sentiment across the crypto market remains fragile, with technical indicators and positioning data suggesting the broader downtrend is still intact.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell sharply over the weekend, briefly touching its lowest level since April of last year and extending its losing streak to a fourth consecutive month. Bitcoin is now down more than 12% year to date after a disappointing 2025 that eroded confidence among both retail and institutional investors. Ether has fared even worse, plunging roughly 23% since the start of the year. In aggregate, the crypto market has shed an estimated $1.7 trillion in value, or nearly 40% from its peak last year, according to industry data.

The latest leg lower coincided with a broader risk-off move across global markets. On Friday, President Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. Markets largely view Warsh as hawkish, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated. That shift weighed on assets sensitive to liquidity conditions, including cryptocurrencies, precious metals, and other speculative investments.

Gold and industrial metals also sold off sharply, underscoring a broader retreat from inflation hedges and high-volatility assets. For crypto markets, which have historically thrived in periods of abundant liquidity, the evolving rate outlook continues to act as a meaningful headwind.

Strategists at 10X Research noted that flow and positioning data indicate investors are not yet prepared to buy the dip. Instead of rotating capital back into risk assets, traders appear focused on deleveraging and unwinding existing positions. That behavior typically reflects caution rather than capitulation and suggests the market may require more time before establishing a durable bottom.

While sentiment and technical indicators are approaching historically oversold levels, analysts caution that such conditions alone are not sufficient to trigger a sustained rally. In the absence of a clear catalyst — such as a shift in Federal Reserve policy or a resurgence in risk appetite — there is little urgency for sidelined capital to re-enter the market. Bitcoin’s next key support level sits near $73,000, an area closely watched by traders if selling pressure resumes.

Not all strategists are uniformly bearish. Fundstrat’s head of digital assets, Sean Farrell, pointed to the mid-$70,000 range as a logical technical support zone, noting that it previously served as both resistance and support during major market inflection points in 2024 and 2025. Farrell suggested that the recent pullback and signs of capitulation could create a more attractive near-term risk-reward setup, though he emphasized that any allocation should remain modest.

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold near $78,000 may slow the pace of declines, but it has yet to signal a meaningful trend reversal. Until macro conditions improve or a decisive catalyst emerges, volatility and downside risk remain central features of the crypto landscape.