DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng’s hedge fund, High-Flyer Quant, has built pre-IPO positions in several of China’s most closely watched technology listings this year, including memory chipmaker CXMT and humanoid robot maker Unitree Robotics.
Two High-Flyer affiliates, Zhejiang High-Flyer Asset Management and Ningbo High-Flyer Quantitative Investment Management, took positions across a range of sectors ahead of these companies’ public debuts, spanning chip packaging, electronic components, renewable energy, and semiconductor supply-chain businesses. Nearly half of the funds’ allocations this year went to semiconductors and related supply-chain companies.
CXMT was the largest single position, with the two funds holding a combined pre-IPO stake estimated at $26 million. The stock surged 466% on its Shanghai debut last month, briefly making it China’s most valuable listed company, and has gained an additional 20% since then.
The funds also held a pre-IPO stake in Unitree Robotics estimated at $5.8 million. Unitree closed 460% above its IPO price on its first day of trading in Shanghai last week, though the stock has since fallen back about 27% from that peak.
DeepSeek itself took a separate and distinct position in Unitree, acquiring a 2.31% strategic allocation and agreeing to a 36-month lock-up period, three times longer than the 12-month hold most other strategic investors accepted in the same deal. This reflects a different objective than High-Flyer’s approach: DeepSeek’s stake functions as a long-term strategic holding tied to its position in the broader AI supply chain, while High-Flyer’s stake was structured as a return-seeking investment.
These pre-IPO opportunities have emerged in part because Beijing has been encouraging strategically important technology companies to list domestically rather than overseas, creating an environment where funds positioned early in sectors aligned with state industrial priorities, such as semiconductors and robotics, have captured outsized returns.
The strategy has carried real risk. During a global AI-chip selloff in July, only one of High-Flyer’s nine investment products avoided losses that month, according to state-backed media reporting. Chinese quant funds broadly recovered those losses by August.
Separately, DeepSeek’s own capital needs have grown substantially and now diverge sharply from High-Flyer’s scale. DeepSeek opened itself to outside investors for the first time this year, raising 50 billion yuan in its initial funding round, an amount exceeding half of High-Flyer’s total assets under management of 80 billion yuan. DeepSeek is reportedly now in discussions to raise at least $7.4 billion more in a second funding round, which would value the company at $74 billion. High-Flyer and DeepSeek did not respond to requests for comment on these transactions.
The Russell 2000 is having a year most investors thought they’d never see again. After more than a decade of trailing large-cap stocks, the small-cap benchmark has turned in its best first-half performance in 35 years, gaining about 22% by the midpoint of 2026 and outperforming the Nasdaq by roughly nine percentage points. For a market that has spent years defined by a handful of mega-cap tech names, that’s a meaningful shift in leadership. Here’s the case for why it may have room to continue.
The valuation gap is still historically wide. Even after the rally, small-cap stocks continue to trade at a discount to large caps, despite the gap narrowing in recent months. Some strategists put numbers on that gap directly: the Russell 2000 trades at its cheapest level relative to the Russell 1000 in 25 years. Cheap valuations alone don’t guarantee outperformance, but they mean small caps aren’t rallying from a stretched starting point the way parts of the large-cap market are.
Rate relief is doing real work. Small companies tend to carry more floating-rate debt than their large-cap peers, which makes them more sensitive to the direction of interest rates. Analysts have pointed to the lagged benefits of Federal Reserve rate cuts from late 2025, which have eased financial pressures on companies carrying floating-rate debt, as a real tailwind behind this year’s move. Lower borrowing costs flow through to smaller-company balance sheets faster and more directly than they do for cash-rich mega-caps.
The rally is broadening, not narrowing. Rather than a rotation away from AI, strategists have framed this move as a broadening of market participation beyond the small group of companies that have driven the market for years. Some analysts go further, arguing the market is now rewarding AI exposure more than current earnings, with unprofitable small caps leading their profitable peers — a sign investors are hunting for the next layer of AI beneficiaries beyond the Magnificent Seven.
There’s also a domestic and macro angle. Part of the appeal is that small caps carry less exposure to global trade tensions and mega-cap concentration risk, making them a relatively direct way to bet on U.S. economic resilience rather than global supply chains or a handful of concentrated tech bets.
The case isn’t unanimous.Not every strategist is convinced this is durable. Wolfe Research, for one, has attributed early-2026 strength largely to technical factors, including seasonal flows, year-end asset reallocation and a January reversal following tax-loss selling, and the firm’s stated view has been to “sell the rip in small caps and stick with large-cap leadership” rather than chase the move. That’s a useful reminder that a valuation discount and a rate tailwind don’t eliminate the sector’s historically higher volatility.
The bottom line is small caps enter the back half of 2026 with a rare combination — a historically wide valuation discount, a genuine rate tailwind, and a market that appears to be broadening its search for growth beyond mega-cap tech. Whether that turns into a multi-year cycle of outperformance or proves to be a technical catch-up trade will likely hinge on two things worth watching closely: whether the Fed continues easing, and whether small-cap earnings growth starts catching up to the price action that’s already happened.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 28, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – From Investment To Cash Flow Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – OVO Acquisition Establishes Multi-Brand Platform
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$6.26 | Price Target: $14.5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | From Investment To Cash Flow Rating: OUTPERFORM
A softer finish to the year. The company reported Q4 revenue of $303.9 million, modestly below our estimate of $314.0 million, while adj. EBITDA of $74.1 million missed our $88.0 million estimate by nearly 16%. Management attributed the revenue softness to unfavorable weather at its largest water parks and high viewership of the World Cup and NBA Finals.
June weighed on results. Management estimated the sports-related revenue impact at $7 million to $12 million and the incremental weather impact on the water parks at $3 million to $5 million. Despite these pressures, the underlying trends were stronger than the quarterly results suggest. Full-year same-store sales declined just 0.2%, marking the company’s best comp since fiscal 2023.
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$7.81 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | OVO Acquisition Establishes Multi-Brand Platform Rating: OUTPERFORM
A multi-brand platform expansion. On August 24, the company completed the acquisition of Drake’s October’s Very Own (OVO) operating business, including its 12 stores, e-commerce platform, wholesale relationships, employees, assets, and liabilities across Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
Acquisition details. OVO’s intellectual property was valued at approximately $117.6 million, with Authentic Brands Group owning 51%, Drake retaining 44%, and Vince purchasing the remaining 5% for $6 million. A portion of the proceeds from the IP sale was used to repay OVO’s debt and provide additional liquidity for its operating business, which Vince acquired for a nominal equity price of $3.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 27, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Liquidity Overshadows Underlying Stability
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$2.34) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Liquidity Overshadows Underlying Stability Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q2 results. Second-quarter revenue of $7.8 million declined 23% year over year and came in 11% below our $8.8 million estimate. The shortfall was concentrated among demand-side platform customers, with spending falling to zero from $2.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Excluding DSP customers, revenue grew 3% in the quarter and 5% year-to-date, suggesting the core managed-campaign business is roughly stable even as the reported line contracts.
Gross margin held with disciplined spending. Gross profit of $2.7 million represented 34% of revenue, down modestly from 35% a year ago and flat with the first quarter. Operating expenses of $5.6 million declined 7% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $2.3 million from $1.5 million a year earlier, well short of our $0.35 million loss estimate, and management’s second-half breakeven target now looks difficult to reach.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Profitability Outpaces Growth As Bookings Soften SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Cash Flow Inflection Takes Center Stage Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF)/OUTPERFORM – Black Creek Emerges as a Second Gold Center
GDEV (GDEV/$10.8 | Price Target: $70) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Profitability Outpaces Growth As Bookings Soften Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. GDEV reported Q2 revenue of $93.6 million, down 22%, and adj. EBITDA of $20.1 million, only down 7% year over year. Notably, the year-over-year revenue decrease was primarily driven by a decline in bookings. As illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results, both revenue and adj. EBITDA missed our estimates of $115 million and $26 million, respectively, though adj. EBITDA proved far more resilient than revenue.
Marketing discipline held margins. That resilience was largely due to lower selling and marketing expenses, which fell 38% to $32.7 million from $52.5 million, lifting the adj. EBITDA margin to roughly 21% from 18% even as revenue declined. The reduction stems from the company’s more disciplined strategy for user acquisition, which focuses on higher-value cohorts rather than volume.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$0.55 | Price Target: $3) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Cash Flow Inflection Takes Center Stage Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 profitability improves despite softer revenue. Fiscal fourth quarter revenue declined 7% to $321.7 million from $345.1 million in the prior-year period, while adj. EBITDA increased to $11.9 million from $2.7 million. Operating cash usage also improved sharply to $3.3 million from $37.5 million a year earlier, highlighting the company’s improving cash conversion.
Healthcare Services emerges as a key earnings driver. Healthcare Services generated Q4 revenue of $193.5 million and adj. EBITDA of $12.1 million, with SelectRx membership of approximately 109,000. Importantly, prescription utilization continues to increase even as membership growth moderates, while the Olathe facility provides capacity for more than 200,000 members and meaningful opportunity for additional operating leverage.
Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF/$1.98 | Price Target: $3.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Black Creek Emerges as a Second Gold Center Rating: OUTPERFORM
Flat is advancing rapidly. Tectonic is executing a five-rig, 40,000-meter drilling program at its flagship Flat Gold Project, with the primary objective of supporting a maiden NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate at Chicken Mountain in early 2027. The program is also targeting higher-grade mineralization and testing additional district-scale targets. The Chicken Mountain–Alpha Bowl system has already been traced for approximately 3.3 kilometers.
Black Creek is emerging as a second gold center. Tectonic released assay results from three holes drilled at the Black Creek target, including two reverse circulation and one diamond drill hole. Hole CMR26-152 returned 5.09 g/t gold over 21.34 meters, including 17.34 g/t over 6.10 meters. Hole CMR26-153 intersected a broader interval of 1.89 g/t over 57.91 meters, including 2.75 g/t over 38.10 meters, with higher-grade intervals of 6.31 g/t over 7.62 meters and 3.89 g/t over 6.10 meters. Diamond hole CMD26-041 returned 3.26 g/t over 5.06 meters and a deeper interval grading 16.73 g/t over 2.22 meters, including 29.91 g/t over 1.22 meters. Importantly, both RC holes ended in mineralization, indicating that the system remains open thus providing clear targets for deeper follow-up drilling.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
First Phosphate Corp. (PHOS)/OUTPERFORM – Definitive Mineral Resource Supports Transition to Feasibility Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Initial Assays Return Significant Gold Mineralization
First Phosphate Corp. (PHOS/$17.1 | Price Target: $25.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Definitive Mineral Resource Supports Transition to Feasibility Rating: OUTPERFORM
A stronger resource supports the transition to feasibility. First Phosphate’s definitive NI 43-101 report confirms approximately 204.7 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources grading roughly 6.05% phosphorus pentoxide (P2O5), including a 378% increase in indicated resources. Strong geological continuity, favorable metallurgy, and additional expansion potential at depth provide a stronger foundation for the Begin-Lamarche feasibility study.
The focus is shifting toward project development. With resource drilling mostly completed, First Phosphate is targeting completion of the feasibility study around January or February 2027, followed by permitting, financing, and a potential final investment decision. Development risk is further reduced by definitive offtake agreements, Canadian government funding, and potential international financing support.
Golden Gate South Discovery. Resolution Minerals confirmed a significant near-surface gold discovery at Golden Gate South within its 100%-owned Horse Heaven Antimony-Tungsten-Gold-Silver Project in Idaho. All three initial 2026 diamond holes intersected broad gold mineralization, extending the known mineralized system at least 2,000 meters south from Golden Gate North. The results, combined with gold-in-soil anomalies between the two areas, strengthen the potential that Golden Gate North and South are part of a much larger mineralized system along the Golden Gate Fault Zone.
Broad Gold Intercepts. The most significant hole, HH-GG26-003C, returned 305.7 meters grading 0.64 g/t gold from surface to the end of the hole, including several higher-grade zones of up to 17.25 meters at 1.19 g/t gold. The other two holes also encountered broad near-surface mineralization, including 87.87 meters at 0.52 g/t and 49.5 meters at 0.58 g/t gold. Collectively, the results are important because they demonstrate substantial widths of pervasive gold mineralization rather than isolated narrow intercepts, although additional drilling is required to establish true widths, continuity, and ultimately the potential size of the system.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 24, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Newsmax (NMAX)/OUTPERFORM – Higher-Margin Revenue Streams Lift Earnings Outlook Radio Broadcast Industry (Radio Broadcast) – Radio at an Inflection Point Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Increases Registered Direct Offering by $10 Million T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 2Q26 Results Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights from Deere’s 3Q26 Conference Call
Newsmax (NMAX/$10.75 | Price Target: $17) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Higher-Margin Revenue Streams Lift Earnings Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Record-Breaking Q2. The company reported its highest quarterly revenue of $54.1 million, up a solid 16.5% YoY, and adj. EBTDA of $5.7 million, both of which beat our estimates of $52.5 million and a loss of $0.675 million, respectively. Notably, the company generated its first profitable quarter as a public company, driven primarily by higher affiliate fees and licensing revenue.
Higher-margin revenue streams gaining momentum. Affiliate fee revenue increased 81.9% to $13.4 million, while licensing revenue increased 563.5% to $4.6 million. In our view, continued affiliate repricing and licensing growth should improve the company’s revenue mix and provide an increasingly important driver of margin expansion.
Radio Broadcast Industry Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Radio at an Inflection Point
Radio’s audience remains considerably more resilient than its advertising performance suggests. Consumer engagement has held up far better than traditional spot revenue, even as podcasts, streaming, and other audio alternatives have proliferated. This disconnect is central to the investment thesis: radio increasingly has a monetization problem rather than an audience problem, creating an opportunity if technology can narrow the gap.
The industry’s transformation is increasingly becoming an ad-tech and digital monetization story. Programmatic buying, improved attribution, first-party data, podcasts, and digital marketing services are expanding radio beyond the traditional station-and-spot model. The opportunity is to use radio’s existing reach, content, and advertiser relationships to participate in a much larger advertising market rather than simply defend its share of traditional radio spending.
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$10.45 | Price Target: $23) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Increases Registered Direct Offering by $10 Million Rating: OUTPERFORM
Upsized. Sky Harbour executed a third stock purchase agreement under its Registered Direct common stock placement. An additional one million shares were sold to M-Cor Capital at $10 per share, raising an additional $10 million on top of the original $40 million raised. We anticipate the additional capital to be used to support future hangar developments.
Portfolio I. Sky Harbour filed its monthly Construction Report for July 2026. The Company continued to make progress in June on its two remaining projects from the Obligated Group (PABs 2021 Series bond issue) – Opa Locka Phase 2 (OPF2) in Opa Locka, FL and Addison Phase 2 (ADS2) in Addison, TX. At OPF2, Alston Construction is substantially complete with construction. Temporary Certificates of Occupancy (TCO) have been issued for all hangars and the GSE. Tenants have started moving into the hangars, and the campus is in full operation. At ADS2 (Addison Airport), Ascend Aviation continues to work towards completion of the Earthwork and Utility scopes of work, with all site sanitary and water completed. The airside apron stabilization is completed, with 8 of 12 pours complete. All foundation piers have been completed on all hangars.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$20.61 | Price Target: $30) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Reports 2Q26 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. T3 Defense filed its 10Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The Company did not issue a press release on the quarterly results, nor did management hold a conference call. Revenue came in below our expectations, but gross margin and operating loss were better than expected. Non-cash items significantly impacted the bottom line. We hope to speak with management shortly to provide a deeper review of the quarter and update our models.
2Q26 Results. Revenue was $4.0 million, below our $4.5 million projection. Gross margin was 25.4% exceeding our 11.1% estimate. T3 reported an operating loss of $3.4 million compared to our projection of a $3.9 million loss. Net loss from continuing operations was $85.7 million and net loss was $81.4 million. T3 reported a loss per share of $182.80 (adjusted for the recent 1-for-125 reverse stock split).
Titan International (TWI/$7.15 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Highlights from Deere’s 3Q26 Conference Call Rating: OUTPERFORM
Deere Call. We reviewed Deere’s (NYSE:DE) 3Q26 results and conference call. Selling into Titan’s key end markets of Agriculture, Construction, and Consumer, Deere’s forward commentary can give a solid overview of Titan’s end markets and potential for improvement. Based on Deere’s comments, 2027 should show improvement across the board for Titan.
Construction. Order books for 2026 are largely full as demand fundamentals remain favorable across both the earthmoving and road building end markets. Large-scale infrastructure projects, data center construction, and pipeline activity continue to support robust customer demand. As a result, customer backlogs now extend well into fiscal year 2027, providing healthy visibility and optimism for next year.
Q2 and 1H FY 2026 Financial Performance. Kuya Silver generated Q2 FY 2026 revenue of $1,252,925, compared with $1,163,673 in the prior-year period. The company reported a net loss of $1,529,381, or $(0.01) per share, compared with a net loss of $282,559, or $(0.00) per share, in Q2 of FY 2025. During the 1H of FY 2026, revenue totaled $2,717,922, compared with $1,389,670 during the same period in FY 2025. The 1H net loss increased to $2,766,547, or $(0.01) per share, from $1,631,545, or $(0.01) per share, in the 1H of FY 2025. The greater loss reflected increased activity at the Bethania mine associated with the production ramp-up, as well as higher administrative expenses as Kuya expanded the organizational structure and capabilities required to support its growing operations. Increases in these line items were partially offset by higher revenue from Bethania and lower exploration and evaluation expenses.
Operational Momentum. Kuya continues to add contractors at the Bethania mine to augment its workforce, which is expected to accelerate mine development and underground drilling productivity during the remainder of the year. The mine team has initiated a focused development program and is allocating additional resources to unlock mineralized material for mining later in 2026 and into 2027. Key underground development initiatives, including construction of a new ramp and ore-handling systems to support the Phase 1 expansion to 350 tonnes per day, are progressing and are expected to improve operational stability and long-term production capacity.
Snail (SNAL/$2.89 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Gamescom Lineup Puts the Non-ARK Pipeline on Display Rating: OUTPERFORM
Gamescom 2026 AAA unveiling. Snail announced its Gamescom 2026 lineup, headlined by the unveiling of its second internally developed AAA title in the 9 Yin Sutra universe, set in a parallel timeline and alternate universe to 9Yin Sutra: Immortal, which debuted at ChinaJoy on July 30th. In our note on August 12th, we had identified an unannounced AAA reveal at Gamescom as a near-term event, and the release confirms it.
The franchise builds. Both 9 Yin Sutra titles draw on the established Age of Wushu IP, offering different treatments of the same martial arts setting. Along with these titles, Snail will also show For The Stars, its space-survival AAA project. In our view, concentrating two out of the three AAA projects within a single IP family should improve development and marketing efficiency, while also making outcomes across those titles more correlated.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 20, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Profitability Momentum In Focus Ahead Of Q2 Results
GDEV (GDEV/$10.67 | Price Target: $70) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Profitability Momentum In Focus Ahead Of Q2 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results preview. We expect GDEV’s second-quarter results to reflect continued disciplined user acquisition spending and a focus on profitable growth. For context, Q1 revenue increased 2% to $99 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 15% to $18 million, benefiting from a 13% decline in selling and marketing expense, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. The return to top-line growth, following a revenue decline in fiscal 2025, is encouraging.
Facing a difficult revenue comparison. Q2 will lap a relatively strong year-ago quarter, when revenue increased 13% to $120 million, driven in part by elevated performance marketing investment. As such, we believe the more important read-through will be the company’s ability to sustain engagement and monetization while maintaining its more disciplined approach to marketing expenditures.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
VivoPower International PLC (VIVO)/OUTPERFORM – De-Risked Nordic AI Infrastructure Pure-Play
VivoPower International PLC (VIVO/$4.4 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | De-Risked Nordic AI Infrastructure Pure-Play Rating: OUTPERFORM
Shareholder debt fully retired, materially improving credit quality. On August 3, 2026, VivoPower eliminated 100% of its $28.8m shareholder debt principal owed to AWN Holdings. $16.5 million was converted under PIPE 2 and $12.3 million was repaid in cash. The move removes the associated interest expense and materially improves credit quality ahead of the Nordic AI buildout, leaving no principal obligation to AWN.
PIPE secured to fund the AI conversion. A $50 million PIPE priced at US$7.50 per share on July 29, 2026, was led by Blue Sky Capital, alongside Nordic, EU, and GCC institutional and family-office investors. Proceeds are directed at the Mo i Rana AI data center conversion in Norway and further debt reduction.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Double-Digit Revenue Growth, Improving Margins Signal Operating Leverage Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX)/OUTPERFORM – Reinvention Creates a Path to Sustainable Earnings Growth
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.2) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Double-Digit Revenue Growth, Improving Margins Signal Operating Leverage Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 revenue growth. QuoteMedia reported Q2 revenue of $5.45 million, up 11% YoY from $4.93 million, although below our $5.63 million estimate. The quarter marked the company’s second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth, supported by new client wins and expansion within existing enterprise relationships.
Improving profitability. Gross margin increased to 50% from 46% in the year-earlier period, while adj. EBITDA increased to $241,000 from $99,000. The net loss narrowed substantially to $362,000 from $854,000. We believe the improving results provide early evidence of the operating leverage inherent in the company’s business model.
Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX/$2.95 | Price Target: $5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Reinvention Creates a Path to Sustainable Earnings Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. Our constructive view reflects the company’s multiyear transformation through the Lexmark acquisition, expansion of IT Solutions and Digital Services, and continued focus on operating efficiency. We believe these initiatives can moderate revenue declines, improve profitability and cash generation, and ultimately support a multiyear earnings recovery and valuation re-rating.
Lexmark Integration Positioned to Drive Significant Profit Growth. The acquisition of Lexmark expands Xerox’s global scale and is expected to generate at least $350 million in gross cost synergies by the end of 2027. In our view, it provides a clear path toward ameaningful improvement in operating leverage and competitive positioning.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 17, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Further Expansion into Accessories Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q26 Reported With Review Of New “Three Pillars” Strategy DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – More Contract Movement Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Star Equity Holdings, Inc. (STRR)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Results And An Acquisition Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Commercialization Advances: Building Toward a Second-Half Revenue Inflection
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$4.34 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Further Expansion into Accessories Rating: OUTPERFORM
Trust Acquisition. On Friday, ACCO announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Trust, a European provider of computer and gaming accessories. The transaction is valued at approximately $57 million. The transaction will be financed through borrowings under ACCO’s revolving credit facility, with limited impact on pro forma leverage. The transaction is expected to close in late third quarter or early fourth quarter.
Who is Trust? Founded in 1983 and headquartered in the Netherlands, Trust is a well-recognized consumer electronics brand with more than 40 years of presence in PC accessories, gaming, smart home, and mobile accessories. The company offers a comprehensive product portfolio spanning keyboards, mice, headsets, speakers, webcams, chargers, and gaming peripherals, sold through a broad network of leading retailers, e-commerce platforms, and B2B channels. Trust operates an asset-light model with outsourced manufacturing and scalable sourcing and serves customers in Europe and Latin America.
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$1.86 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 2Q26 Reported With Review Of New “Three Pillars” Strategy Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q26 Reported With Review Of New Strategy and Product Data. Cadrenal reported a 2Q26 loss of $3.3 million, or $(1.14) per share. The company modified its strategy and plans to develop its products through collaborations, out-licensing agreements, and non-dilutive grants to conserve capital resources. On June 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $4.2 million, excluding proceeds from the private placement completed July 1. The private placement raised about $3.0 million, with warrants that could raise another $5.8 million upon exercise.
The Pipeline Has Been Reorganized Into “Three Pillars”. The company has divided the pipeline into products for Cardiac Acute Critical Care, Orphan Diseases, and Post-Operative Care. These divisions emphasize how the products can address important needs before and after cardiac surgery, as well as for patient populations with few options.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.66 | Price Target: $7) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 More Contract Movement Rating: OUTPERFORM
New ID/IQ. According to the Department of War’s daily contract award notifications, DLH has been named to the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific’s recent ID/IQ to provide operational exercise design and construction, operations and requirements analysis, concept formulation and development, feasibility demonstrations, and operational and technical support. This includes efforts to analyze and engineer operational, functional, and system requirements to establish national, theater, and force-level architecture. Additional efforts will include requirements verification and validation, engineering analysis, technical documentation, software and hardware design and implementation, as well as systems integration, test and evaluation, and demonstration. This is the second major ID/IQ to which DLH has been named recently.
Details. The contracting vehicle is a $278 million indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity, multiple-award contract with cost-plus-fixed-fee and cost-no-fee pricing. This seven-year contract includes one two-year option which, if exercised, would bring the potential value of this contract to $400 million. The period of performance is Aug. 12, 2026, through Aug. 12, 2031. DLH will have the opportunity to compete for task orders during the ordering period.
Euroseas (ESEA/$73.8 | Price Target: $92) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter Financial Results. Euroseas Ltd. reported solid second quarter 2026 financial performance supported by elevated charter rates, high fleet utilization, and disciplined cost management. While net revenues declined modestly to $56.5 million compared to $57.2 million in the prior year period due to a smaller average fleet size, adj. EBITDA increased to $40.1 million compared to $39.3 million during the second quarter of 2025, and adj. earnings per share increased to $4.70 from $4.20. We had projected net revenue of $56.5 million and adj. EBITDA of $40.1 million.
Outlook Remains Constructive. In our view, the near-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong charter rates, tight vessel availability in the feeder and intermediate segments of the containership market, and significant charter coverage through 2027. While market conditions could moderate as the supply of vessels increases and Red Sea routes potentially normalize, we think the feeder and intermediate segments are relatively well positioned versus larger vessel classes. Euroseas’ strong charter coverage of 96.0% in 2026, 81.3% in 2027, and 46.8% in 2028 is expected to insulate the company from any volatility in the market.
Star Equity Holdings, Inc. (STRR/$9.8 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Second Quarter Results And An Acquisition Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. In the second quarter, Business Services delivered modest revenue growth, with gross profit down slightly year-over-year, while Energy Services posted strong year-over-year gains in revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting activity increases and new client wins in the geothermal and mining industries. Building Solutions remained below management expectations due to market softness and contract timing.
2Q26 Results. Second quarter 2026 revenue was $54.9 million versus a pro forma $59.2 million in 2Q25. We were at $64 million. The delta was in Building Solutions, which continues to operate in a challenging environment. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.2 million versus a pro forma $8.5 million, which included a $5.5 million gain. Star reported an adjusted loss of $0.15/sh in 2Q26 compared to EPS of $0.20/sh in 2Q25.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.94 | Price Target: $5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Commercialization Advances: Building Toward a Second-Half Revenue Inflection Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results were softer than expected, largely due to timing. Revenue was approximately $1.1 million, compared with $1.3 million in the prior-year period, reflecting the Judith Ripka divestiture and delays associated with QVC’s bankruptcy and vendor-credit issues. Importantly, the QVC-related disruptions appear to have largely been resolved.
Commercialization remains the key story as the creator portfolio moves into the market. With the portfolio’s social media reach having expanded from roughly 5 million to more than 46 million followers, we believe the company has assembled a compelling audience from which to build consumer brands. The next several quarters should provide evidence regarding Xcel’s ability to convert that audience into sustainable royalty revenue.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 14, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q26 Reported With Several Tegoprubart Trial Updates InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Newsmax (NMAX)/OUTPERFORM – A Milestone Quarter for Growth and Profitability Saga Communications (SGA)/MARKET PERFORM – Investment Spending Weighs On Margins Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Second Quarter Results SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Another Quarter of Growth Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Creator-Commerce Strategy Advances Despite Slower Revenue Ramp
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.7 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 2Q26 Reported With Several Tegoprubart Trial Updates Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q Financial Results Were Within Expectations. Eledon reported a 2Q26 loss of $31.6 million or $(0.27) per share. The Operating Loss of $22.9 million was close to our estimate of $22.4 million, before a charge of $9.6 million for Changes In The Fair Value of Warrant Liabilities. The Net Loss excluding the non-cash charge would have been $22 million. Cash balance on June 30, 2026 was $ $88.8 million.
Preparations For A Global Phase 3 Trial In Kidney Transplantation Continue. During 2Q26, an End-Of-Phase 2 meeting was held with the FDA to discuss the Phase 3 trial design and requirements for a BLA submission. The Phase 3 trial has been designed to test tegoprubart against tacrolimus to prevent kidney transplant rejection. It is scheduled to begin in late 2026 with a target enrollment of about 600 patients. The Primary Endpoint will be non-inferiority based on a composite of BPAR (biopsy-proven acute rejection), graft loss, and death.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$11.89 | Price Target: $22) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. Duringthe second quarter of 2026, InPlay production averaged 18,663 barrels of oil equivalents per day (boe/d), compared with 20,401 boe/d in the prior-year quarter. Despite lower production, stronger commodity pricing drove oil and natural gas sales to C$124.1 million, up 35% from C$91.6 million during the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted funds flow increased 11% to C$44.7 million from $40.1 million, while adjusted funds flow per basic share increased 8% to C$1.61 from C$1.49.
Outlook for the remainder of 2026. Supported by stronger oil prices and the expected impact of its recently announced acquisition, InPlay’s 2026 guidance forecasts average annual production of 18,900 to 19,400 boe/d, with approximately 61% to 63% light oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), and adjusted funds flow of C$161 million to C$169 million, or approximately C$165 million at the midpoint.
Newsmax (NMAX/$9.49 | Price Target: $17) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 A Milestone Quarter for Growth and Profitability Rating: OUTPERFORM
A milestone quarter. Newsmax reported record Q2 revenue of $54.1 million, up 16.5%, while Adjusted EBITDA improved to $5.7 million from a loss of $3.8 million, and the company generated its first quarterly net income as a public company. We believe the results provide an important early indication of the operating leverage inherent in the business model.
Higher-margin revenue streams gaining momentum. Affiliate fee revenue increased 81.9% to $13.4 million, while licensing revenue increased 563.5% to $4.6 million. In our view, continued affiliate repricing and licensing growth should improve the company’s revenue mix and provide an increasingly important driver of margin expansion.
Saga Communications (SGA/$9.71) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Investment Spending Weighs On Margins Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q2 exceeded expectations. Revenue declined 6.5% year over year to $26.4 million, beating our estimate of $25.5 million by 3.5%. Additionally, adj. EBITDA of approximately $1.1 million compared favorably with our $0.1 million estimate. The beat reflected growth in blended digital revenue, which cushioned double-digit declines across the traditional broadcast business.
Digital continues to scale. Blended digital offering grew 60.8% during the quarter and was up 76.4% for the first 6 months of the year. Digital reached 19% of gross revenue in the first half compared with 14% a year ago. Management has brought search capabilities in-house with three dedicated specialists, hired and trained ten digital campaign managers, and migrated digital fulfillment to a new platform. In our view, the pace of blended digital growth is the most encouraging development in the quarter and the clearest evidence that the multi-year platform build is beginning to convert.
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$11 | Price Target: $23) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Solid Second Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. During the second quarter, the pace of investment and new construction at Sky Harbour continued to accelerate. Assets under construction and completed construction reached over $393 million, a $65 million increase year-to-date and the highest in six months in corporate history.
2Q26 Results. Sky Harbour 2Q26 revenue of $9.86 million rose nearly 50% y-o-y, driven by new campus openings in the past year and increases in occupancy and rental rates. Adjusted EBITDA improved to approximately negative $0.9 million in the second quarter of 2026 from a loss of $3.0 million in the second quarter of 2025. The Company reported a net loss of $1.2 million, or $0.04/sh, versus net income of $17.5 million, or $0.18/sh, in 2Q25, which was positively impacted by $21.8 million of unrealized gain on warrants.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.1 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Another Quarter of Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. SKYX Platforms just completed its 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. The Company is trending positively, generating record second quarter 2026 revenues. The Company’s builder and hotel segments are continuing to grow. With savings of up to 90% of time for installation or renovation, and up to 90% of the cost of renovation and installations, we believe SKYX’s value proposition is very strong in the hotels and builders segments. We believe the positive trends will continue to accelerate through the balance of 2026 as the Company continues to build out and execute on its channel strategy.
2Q26 Results. Revenue in 2Q26 rose 9.6% y-o-y to $25.27 million and was above our $24 million projection, with the increase due to an expansion of sales of SKYX products. The Company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $3.5 million, up slightly from last year’s $2.6 million loss. Net loss totaled $8.48 million, or $0.06/sh, versus a $9.1 million net loss, or $0.08/sh, in 2Q25.
Q2 results reflect a slower-than-anticipated revenue ramp, but underlying operating trends improved. Second quarter revenue of $1.1 million was below our $1.8 million estimate, largely reflecting the timing of the company’s creator-led brand commercialization and the divestiture of Judith Ripka. Importantly, adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially to a loss of $479,000 from roughly $700,000 in Q1, representing a 32% improvement, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results.
Creator-led brands begin to contribute; commercialization remains the key catalyst. Management attributed the improved adjusted EBITDA performance in part to product launches from two of its new influencer-led brands. We believe Xcel is transitioning from the investment and incubation phase of its transformation toward commercialization, with Jenny Martinez, Gemma Stafford, Cesar Millan, Coco Rocha, Christie Brinkley, and Longaberger providing multiple opportunities to expand product categories and distribution.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 13, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI)/OUTPERFORM – Q2 EBITDA Beat Validates Re-Margin Strategy Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q26 Reported As OLC Moving Forward With FDA Manufacturing Inspection
Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI/$21.73 | Price Target: $31) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Q2 EBITDA Beat Validates Re-Margin Strategy Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results highlight meaningful operating leverage. Second-quarter revenue was $44.1 million, while Adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 million was well above our previous $2.2 million estimate. We believe the results provide encouraging evidence that recent cost actions are materially improving EBITDA conversion despite continued pressure on traditional advertising.
Cost reductions are beginning to reshape the earnings profile. Operating expenses declined 13.2% year-over-year, and management implemented an additional $10 million of annualized expense reductions during the quarter, bringing total savings over the trailing twelve months to roughly $30 million. In our view, the magnitude of these savings suggests normalized earnings power could be greater than previously anticipated.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$5.39 | Price Target: $50) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 2Q26 Reported As OLC Moving Forward With FDA Manufacturing Inspection Rating: OUTPERFORM
OLC Is Moving Forward. Unicycive reported a 2Q26 loss of $1.7 million, or $(0.06) per share. The Operating Loss of $10.1 million was offset by $8.0 million in Change In Fair Value Of Warrant Liabilities, leading to a Net Loss To Common Shareholders of $1.7 million. Importantly, the FDA has given written notice of facility inspection to one of the OLC third-party manufacturers. Assuming the inspection results are positive, Unicycive will be able to resubmit its NDA for OLC. Cash and equivalents on June 30, 2026, were $61.4 million.
The Third-Party Inspection Could Complete The Missing Part Of The NDA. In June 2026, Unicycive received a CRL (Complete Response Letter) to its NDA for OLC. The stated reason was that the required FDA inspection of one of its third-party manufacturing vendors had not been performed. The notification of an inspection is good news that could allow the NDA to be resubmitted.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Positioned for a Stronger Second Half Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Forward To Product Milestones In The Second Half FY2026 Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Setting the Stage for a Stronger Second Half Summit Midstream Corp (SMC)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Results Exceed Expectations
Conduent (CNDT/$1.58 | Price Target: $5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Positioned for a Stronger Second Half Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results reflect ongoing transformation. Continuing operations revenue declined 11.9% to $531 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $16 million, or a 3.0% margin. Commercial remained pressured by contract losses and lower volumes, while Government results reflected the timing of Medicaid implementation activity.
Guidance supports a stronger second half. Management established 2026 continuing operations guidance of $2.15-$2.25 billion of revenue and $140-$170 million of adjusted EBITDA, implying a roughly 7% EBITDA margin at the midpoint. Our estimates of $2.21 billion and $157 million, respectively, are modestly above the midpoint of guidance.
Nutriband (NTRB/$3.18 | Price Target: $15) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Looking Forward To Product Milestones In The Second Half FY2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
AVERSA Fentanyl Continues To Make Progress. Nutriband has been working in several areas to advance AVERSA Fentanyl toward the market. These include preparations for the registration trial, manufacturing, and commercialization. We continue to see AVERSA Fentanyl as an important product that could make fentanyl a safe, abuse-resistant option for pain relief.
Clinical Trial Expected Later In FY2026. The AVERSA Fentanyl application for FDA approval requires only a single clinical trial providing data to show that Fentanyl abusers prefer generic patches to the abuse-deterrent AVERSA technology. We expect this to be a short trial with a relatively small number of patients. Manufacturing clinical supplies is progressing, with the trial expected to begin around late Fall 2026.
Snail (SNAL/$4.49 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Setting the Stage for a Stronger Second Half Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results Were Soft, Ahead of a Busier Second Half. Second quarter revenue declined to $19.7 million from $22.2 million, while bookings decreased to $21.8 million from $27.1 million, and EBITDA was a $3.0 million loss versus a $2.4 million loss in the prior-year period. Despite the softer quarter, first-half revenue increased 11.1% to $47.0 million, while EBITDA improved to a loss of $0.6 million from a loss of $5.8 million.
Second-Half Setup Improves Following Major ARK Content Releases. Shortly after quarter-end, Snail released Tides of Fortune, Genesis Part 1 Ascended, and Dragontopia, establishing a more active content cadence for the remainder of 2026. Management believes the broader ARK slate through 2027 provides a strong foundation for improved monetization and revenue visibility.
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. Summit Midstream generated $155.0 million of revenue, up 10.6% from the prior year quarter, and reported net income attributable to Summit Midstream Corp. of $1.6 million, or $0.11 per share, compared with a net loss of $8.0 million, or $(0.66) per share, during the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $60.7 million compared to $61.1 million during the prior year period, as stronger Rockies and Permian performance was offset by weaker Mid-Con and Piceance segment results. We had forecast revenue of $144.4 million and adj. EBITDA of $59.7 million. Distributable cash flow increased to $36.8 million from $32.4 million, and free cash flow increased modestly to $9.4 million compared to $9.2 million during the second quarter of 2025. Sequentially, SMC’s second quarter results demonstrated meaningful improvement, supported by stronger producer activity and higher throughput across much of the portfolio.
Guidance Narrowed. Management narrowed its FY 2026 guidance range for adj. EBITDA to $235 million to $255 million from $225 million to $265 million, and increased capital expenditure guidance to $100 million to $120 million from $85 million to $105 million. The increased capital budget is primarily tied to approximately 30 additional Williston Basin well connections and incremental investment in the Double E pipeline, while accelerating producer activity, additional firm transportation agreements, and a potential Double E compression expansion support the longer-term growth outlook.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Execution Takes Center Stage CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – $500 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase NanoViricides (NNVC)/OUTPERFORM – NanoViricides Receives Regulatory Approval To Begin Phase 2 For Ebola In Africa NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN)/OUTPERFORM – NeuroSense Announces Target Date For Canadian PrimeC Approval Application Summit Midstream Corp (SMC)/OUTPERFORM – Improving Growth Outlook and Operational Momentum The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Finding Its Footing in Retail
Conduent (CNDT/$1.56 | Price Target: $5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Execution Takes Center Stage Rating: OUTPERFORM
Execution continues to improve. Management reiterated that second quarter results were in line with expectations while highlighting meaningful progress across its five strategic priorities, including cost reduction, financial discipline, portfolio optimization, and pipeline conversion. Six months into the transformation, management believes the company is beginning to see tangible operational improvements.
Transportation exit strengthens the financial profile. The announced sales of the Transit and Tolling businesses are expected to generate approximately $234 million of gross proceeds, reduce off-balance-sheet obligations by roughly 80%, lower capital requirements, and provide significant flexibility to reduce debt while sharpening management’s focus on its core businesses.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$33 | Price Target: $42) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 $500 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Rating: OUTPERFORM
ASR. CoreCivic has decided how to use a portion of the proceeds from the facilities sale, and it’s a $500 million Accelerated Share Repurchase program. The Company already used over $600 million of net proceeds to reduce debt, and increased share repurchases were a logical use of additional funds, in our opinion. Upon completion of the ASR Agreement, the Company anticipates that approximately $255.8 million of share repurchase authorization will remain available.
Details. The Company made a payment of $500 million to a financial institution on August 10, 2026, and expects to receive an initial delivery of approximately 12.4 million shares of CXW common stock (about 12.5% of the outstanding) from the financial institution, pursuant to the ASR Agreement. Based on Friday’s closing price, the initial 12.4 million shares would have used approximately $400 million of the $500 million.
NanoViricides (NNVC/$1.4 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 NanoViricides Receives Regulatory Approval To Begin Phase 2 For Ebola In Africa Rating: OUTPERFORM
Regulatory Approval Allows the Phase 2 Trial for NV-387 To Begin. NanoViricides has received approval to proceed with its Phase 2 trial of NV-387 for the treatment of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We expect the Ebola trial to be followed by a separate Phase 2 trial in Mpox, also to be conducted in the DRC. This is consistent with our expected time frame for the trials.
Previous Preparations Should Allow Treatment To Start Soon. NanoViricides has completed delivery of clinical supplies of NV-387 oral solid formulation (gummies) for treatment of the trial. The trial will be conducted by OM Sai Clinical Research, a contract research organization (CRO) based in India. The CRO has assembled a clinical team with a Principal Investigator, local clinicians, and a university in the region to support the trial. The approval by ACOREP (Autorité Congolaise de Réglementation Pharmaceutique, the Congolese Pharmaceutical Regulatory Authority) should allow the trial to start patient treatment shortly.
NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN/$0.48 | Price Target: $9) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 NeuroSense Announces Target Date For Canadian PrimeC Approval Application Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pre-Application Process Has Been Completed. NeuroSense announced that it has completed Pre-NDS meetings with Health Canada and plans to submit a New Drug Submission (NDS) for PrimeC in its ALS indication. These meetings focused on whether the data could support approval and the submission requirements. The target date is December 2026. We see this as good news that is consistent with our expectations.
We View The Canadian NDS Process As An Important Milestone For PrimeC. The NDS application will include the Phase 2b PARADIGM trial data, with additional preclinical and supporting data. The primary endpoint in the trial showed a reduction in TDP-43 (TAR DNA-binding Protein 43, a protein that drives ALS progression and deterioration). The data also showed increased median survival, improved functional assessments, biomarkers showing slower disease progression, as well as safety and tolerability. Approval would be based on Health Canada’s analysis of these data.
Summit Midstream Corp (SMC/$31.84 | Price Target: $49) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Improving Growth Outlook and Operational Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. Summit Midstream generated $155.0 million of revenue, up 10.6% from the prior-year quarter, and reported net income attributable to Summit Midstream Corp. of $1.6 million, or $0.11 per share, compared with a net loss of $8.0 million, or $(0.66) per share, during the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $60.7 million compared to $61.1 million during the prior year period, as stronger Rockies and Permian performance was offset by weaker Mid-Con and Piceance segment results. We had forecast revenue of $144.4 million and adj. EBITDA of $59.7 million. Distributable cash flow increased to $36.8 million from $32.4 million, and free cash flow increased modestly to $9.4 million compared to $9.2 million during the second quarter of 2025. Sequentially, SMC’s second quarter results demonstrated meaningful improvement, supported by stronger producer activity and higher throughput volume across much of the portfolio.
Guidance Narrowed. Management narrowed its FY 2026 guidance range for adj. EBITDA to $235 million to $255 million from $225 million to $265 million, and increased capital expenditure guidance to $100 million to $120 million from $85 million to $105 million. The increased capital budget is primarily tied to approximately 30 additional Williston Basin well connections and incremental investment in the Double E pipeline, while accelerating producer activity, additional firm transportation agreements, and a potential Double E compression expansion support the longer-term growth outlook.
The Beachbody Company (BODI/$10.22 | Price Target: $22) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Finding Its Footing in Retail Rating: OUTPERFORM
Another profitable quarter. Q2 revenue of $49.6 million exceeded the midpoint of guidance, while adjusted EBITDA of $6.7 million exceeded the high end and marked the company’s 11th consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. While revenues were in line, the company exceeded our $4.5 million adj. EBITDA estimate.
Retail traction encouraging. Shakeology distribution expanded to 131 Sprouts stores, with early reorders supporting favorable sell-through, while the company recently launched in 481 Vitamin Shoppe locations. Approximately 12 additional retail decisions are expected between mid-September and late November.
Overview. As we highlighted in our First Look at CoreCivic’s operating results, the Company’s second quarter 2026 financial results exceeded management expectations, driven by lower operating costs and slightly higher populations from ICE. While the quarterly operating results were a positive in and of themselves, the major news came post-quarter’s end with the announcements of sales of four detention facilities to the Federal government for total gross proceeds of $2.2 billion and a net of approximately $1.6 billion. The Company remains in discussions with ICE for the potential sale of additional facilities, as well as for new contracts at existing and/or idle facilities.
Capital. With the facilities sold, the current capital structure has significantly changed. Net proceeds, after taxes and sale costs, were approximately $1.6 billion. The Company used $608.5 million to pay down debt, including $238.5 million of the 4.75% unsecured notes that will be repaid on August 12th. After income taxes and debt repayments, the Company will have approximately $1 billion of cash on hand, total debt outstanding of $739.1 million, and $553.3 million of borrowing capacity under the revolving credit facility.
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.32 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Transformation and Regulatory Change Create Long-Term Upside Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Q2 results, but EBITDA outlook remains intact. Second-quarter results reflected continued pressure in the Scripps Networks business from weak national advertising, retransmission disruptions, and Nielsen measurement changes. However, stronger political advertising guidance and accelerated transformation savings largely offset these headwinds, leading us to maintain our 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate despite modest revenue revisions.
Transformation plan gains momentum. Management increased its expected year-end transformation run-rate savings to $100 million, up from $75 million previously, reinforcing confidence in its target of delivering $125–150 million of incremental annualized EBITDA by 2028 through AI, automation, and operational modernization.
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$1.29 | Price Target: $2) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Nasdaq Uplisting Enhances and Expands Investor Access Rating: OUTPERFORM
Nasdaq Listing. First Phosphate’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) will uplist to the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker PHOS, effective August 10, 2026. The ADR ratio remains 10 common shares per ADR, and existing Level 1 ADRs will be delisted from the OTCQX and automatically converted to Level 2 ADRs for Nasdaq trading. First Phosphate’s currently listed common shares on the OTCQX, CSE, and Frankfurt Stock Exchange are unaffected. Uplisting to Nasdaq is expected to enhance U.S. market access for First Phosphate, which is developing a vertically integrated North American supply chain for LFP battery materials used for energy storage, data centers, robotics, mobility, and national security applications.
No New Capital. First Phosphate is the second self-sponsored ADR to uplist to Nasdaq and the first to do so without a concurrent capital raise. The Nasdaq uplisting does not involve issuing additional shares or raising new capital. Investors may continue converting First Phosphate common shares into ADRs at no cost through The Bank of New York Mellon, the depositary bank for the First Phosphate ADR program, until December 31, 2026. First Phosphate is well funded with more than C$30 million in treasury and access to C$21.5 million in Canadian government contributions, providing funding through a final investment decision (FID).
Graham (GHM/$111.68) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Strong Start to Fiscal 2027 Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Overview. Graham’s first quarter results reflect continued disciplined execution. The Company experienced revenue growth across all business units, reflecting the strength of Graham’s diversified business model and strong demand for the Company’s mission-critical technologies. Bookings remained strong, and backlog was at a record level.
1Q27 Results. First quarter fiscal 2027 net sales were $71.3 million, up $15.9 million, or 29%. We had projected $66 million. 1Q27 adjusted EBITDA increased 28% to $8.8 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.3%, which was consistent with the prior year period. We were at $8.3 million and 12.7%. Graham reported 1Q27 adjusted net income of $5.7 million, or $0.49/sh, compared with $4.9 million and $0.45/sh last year. This exceeded our $5.1 million and $0.43/sh estimate.
The Cullgen Acquisition Highlights 2Q26. Gyre reported a 2Q26 loss of $14.3 million, or $(0.12) per share. Revenues of $29.1 million compared with $22.5 million in 1Q26, consistent with our estimates. We have expected a transition year between Etuary market maturity and the expected hydronidone launch, supplemented by the Cullgen acquisition. Revenue guidance for FY2026 was reiterated at $100.5 to $111.0 million. Cash and equivalents on June 30, 2026 were $103.2 million.
Hydronidone NDA Accepted For Review. In May 2026, the New Drug Application (NDA) for hydronidone (previously F351) was accepted for review by the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) of China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA). This followed the Priority Review status granted by the NMPA in March.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$15.19 | Price Target: $19) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Improving Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. In the second quarter of 2026, Kelly exceeded guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin, driven by growing momentum from the Company’s growth and efficiency initiatives as well as constructive demand trends in parts of the portfolio. Notably, Kelly delivered sequential improvements in each of the business segments.
2Q26 Results. Revenue was $1.04 billion, down approximately 5.8% y-o-y, but significantly better than the expected 7-9% revenue decline. We were at $1.01 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q26 was $16.1 million, a 3.0% margin, above management’s 2.5% projection. We were at $25 million and 2.5%. Adjusted EPS was $0.37 versus $0.54 in 2Q25. We had estimated $0.30.
NN (NNBR/$3.77 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 A New Era Rating: OUTPERFORM
A New Era. NN delivered strong financial performance in the second quarter with record results in many areas. These new sales are higher margin, attached to higher growth rate end markets, and mostly immediate 2026 startup. The Company is achieving many multi-year goals and revising outlooks-including raising full-year guidance- based upon actual results. And, significantly, post-quarter-end management implemented what can only be described as a game-changing restructuring of the capital structure.
Growth. During the quarter, NN secured significant 2026 immediate-supply awards for Data Center liquid cooling products, robotic surgery medical products, and defense products. New business wins through July totaled $80 million. Management increased the full-year new business win goal from $80 million to the $100 million range.
The GEO Group (GEO/$30.69 | Price Target: $40) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Strong 2Q; Raising Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. GEO delivered better-than-expected performance in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting significant revenue growth from the contracts that the Company entered into throughout 2025. With recently signed new contracts and still significant idle capacity, we believe there remains substantial opportunity for additional increases in operating results.
2Q26 Results. Second quarter 2026 revenue was $732.1 million, up 15% y-o-y, and exceeding our $720 million projection. Adjusted EBITDA was up 20% to $142 million, or a 19.4% margin, and above our $129.3 million estimate. GEO reported 2Q26 net income attributable to GEO Operations of $47.5 million, or $0.36/sh, and $29.1 million, or $0.21/sh, in 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.37/sh, compared to $0.22/sh in 2Q25. We were at $0.28/sh for both.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 7, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Execution Becomes the Investment Story EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – That Didn’t Take Long Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Multiple Value Drivers Emerging Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Q2 2026 Reported With Three Late-Stage Trials Advancing With A Stronger Balance Sheet Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Update for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Digital Momentum Accelerates
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.95 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Execution Becomes the Investment Story Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results fell short of expectations, reflecting both cyclical and structural pressures. Revenue declined 9.2% year over year, as retransmission blackouts with Comcast and DirecTV reduced distribution revenue by approximately $26.7 million, while continued weakness in national advertising and audience measurement challenges weighed on the Networks business.
Transformation efforts are accelerating and should improve earnings power over time. Management now expects to achieve approximately $100 million in annualized run-rate cost savings by year-end as part of its broader plan to deliver $125–150 million of incremental enterprise EBITDA by 2028 through AI, automation, and operational efficiencies.
EuroDry (EDRY/$29.82 | Price Target: $47) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q 2026 Financial Results. EuroDry Ltd. reported strong 2Q 2026 financial performance compared to the prior year period, driven primarily by a favorable dry bulk market and higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Total net revenues increased 57% year-over-year to $17.7 million, while average time charter equivalent rates more than doubled to $20,398 per day compared with $10,428 per day during the prior year period. Adjusted net income attributable to controlling shareholders amounted to $6.9 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.0 million, or $(1.10) per diluted share, in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $11.7 million compared to $1.9 million during the prior year period, reflecting strong operating leverage as TCE rates increased. We had projected 2Q revenue and adj. EBITDA of $17.4 million and $9.3 million, respectively.
Strong Operational Quarter. Fleet utilization improved to 100.0% compared to 99.3% during the prior year period, with commercial utilization at 100%, reflecting minimal downtime and effective charter execution. Vessel operating expenses declined modestly to $6,608 per day compared to $6,785 per day during the prior year period, while total operating expenses decreased to $7,444 per day compared to $7,539 during the second quarter of 2025.
Information Services Group (III/$5 | Price Target: $6.5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Quarter. ISG had a strong second quarter with both revenue and adjusted EBITDA above expectations. The second quarter marks the seventh quarter in a row that adjusted EBITDA has grown by double digits. Expanding margins reflect the continued evolution of ISG’s business toward higher-value advisory work, growth in recurring revenues, and increasing leverage from AI-enabled delivery, in our view.
AI Opportunity. AI is a tailwind for ISG. ISG is taking advantage of the need for AI, reshaping the business as an AI-centered technology research and advisory firm to drive stronger client demand and improve how services are delivered. Nearly half of ISG’s clients generated AI-related revenue during the quarter. Growth was broad-based across industries, led by consumer, health sciences, and manufacturing.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$57.41 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 That Didn’t Take Long Rating: OUTPERFORM
From Opportunity to Reality. Less than 48 hours after speaking of these potential opportunities (among a bunch of other opportunities), Kratos has been awarded a U.S. Army contract related to the Javelin Missile System, and Kratos partner Boeing announced it has been awarded a funding contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs that incorporate Kratos turbojet engines.
JDAM. The Air Force awarded Boeing a $75 million production contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs. The long-range variant adds a Kratos TDI-J85 turbojet providing 200 pounds of thrust to enable jets to attack from a much safer distance. The 2027 National Defense Authorization Act includes about $277 million for 1,150 upgraded JDAM guidance tail kits with M-Code GPS for the legacy munitions. Industry experts note the new version will cost far less than more exquisite stand-off munitions, so they should be considered as an affordable mass capability, playing right into Kratos’ key strengths, in our opinion.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.56 | Price Target: $2.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Multiple Value Drivers Emerging Rating: OUTPERFORM
Early results are encouraging. Kuya Silver reported encouraging preliminary sampling results from historic stockpiles and tailings at its Silver Kings Project in Northern Ontario, suggesting that previously mined above-ground materials may contain significant recoverable silver and cobalt. The strongest results came from the Kerr Lake Mill crushed stockpile, which returned a master composite grade of 168 g/t silver and 0.365% cobalt (276 g/t silver equivalent), while Frontier tailings returned 75 g/t silver and 0.037% cobalt. These findings support the company’s view that modern processing technologies could unlock value from legacy mining waste.
The program targeted multiple historic sites. The sampling program evaluated seven historic sites, including tailings facilities, blast rock stockpiles, and crushed material left by previous operators. These represent attractive reprocessing targets because historical mining methods were less efficient and often left behind economically valuable mineralization. While the results are preliminary and not representative of entire stockpiles, they demonstrate the potential for recovering silver, cobalt, and, in some cases, copper using modern sorting and processing techniques.
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.24 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Q2 2026 Reported With Three Late-Stage Trials Advancing With A Stronger Balance Sheet Rating: OUTPERFORM
Ocugen Raised Cash and Prepared To Begin Phase 3. Ocugen reported a 2Q26 loss of $24.9 million, or $(0.07) per share. The Operating Loss of $16.4 million was in line with our estimate, while a Loss on Extinguishment of Debt contributed $2.4 million to the Net Loss. Importantly, the company is planning to start the Phase 3 trial for OCU410 in GA-dAMD during 3Q, consistent with our expectations. In May 2026, the company issued Convertible Notes that raised approximately $112.5 million, ending the quarter with $100.4 million in cash.
Convertible Notes Balance Cash Needs With Dilution. In May 2026, the company issued $130.0 million in 6.75% Convertible Notes, adding net cash of approximately $112.5 million. About $32.7 million of the proceeds were used to repay a 12.25% interest loan. The remaining proceeds brought cash on hand to $100.4 million. This should provide sufficient cash to fund its three products through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and product launches through FY2028.
Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF/$0.03 | Price Target: $0.15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Update for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Making Significant Progress. Resolution Minerals has advanced the Horse Heaven Project as an integrated U.S. critical minerals platform encompassing antimony, tungsten, and gold. Antimony Ridge received FAST-41 Transparency Coverage, with Golden Gate receiving the same status after quarter-end, while Resolution was also admitted to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base Consortium. Together, these developments could accelerate permitting, enhance access to U.S. government and strategic funding channels, and reinforce the projects’ importance as a domestic critical-mineral supply source. Resolution continues to advance drilling, metallurgy, and permitting activities that support its long-term development strategy.
Project Highlights. Antimony Ridge continues to demonstrate excellent scale and grade, with more than 100 high-grade antimony veins identified and metallurgical testing producing a 99.38% antimony trioxide product. At Golden Gate, the company advanced a 13,700-meter drill program to support a maiden mineral resource estimate, while metallurgical testing returned strong gold recoveries that further de-risk future development. Post quarter-end, approximately half of the planned drilling program has been completed
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$6.33 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Digital Momentum Accelerates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 exceeded expectations. Revenue of $115.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million were within management’s guidance, while Digital Advertising accelerated to 11% year-over-year growth,driven by continued strength in programmatic advertising, owned-and-operated digital properties, and Media Partnerships.
Digital transformation gaining traction. Townsquare’s Digital First strategy continues to differentiate the company from traditional radio peers. During the first half of 2026, digital businesses generated 57% of total revenue and 59% of total segment profit, while the Media Partnerships platform expanded to 16 partners, creating a scalable, capital-light growth opportunity beyond the company’s owned markets.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 6, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q26 Results First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF)/OUTPERFORM – Federal Funding for Infrastructure Planning Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – New Awards Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q26 Operating Results InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Acquisition Enhances Outlook NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q26 Operating Results; Deleveraging Transaction ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Implementing the Asset Light Strategy
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$31.23 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q26 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. CoreCivic’s 2Q26 financial results exceeded management expectations, driven by lower operating costs and slightly higher populations from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Recent contracts at 4 facilities added $80.1 million to revenue and $20.1 million to operating income in the quarter. These facilities continue to be in various stages of activation.
2Q26 Results. Revenue increased 27.3% y-o-y to $684.9 million and was above our $618 million projection. Adjusted EBITDA was $109.4 million, compared to $103.3 million in 2Q25 and our $108.9 million estimate. Adjusted net income was $37.7 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, in 2Q26, compared with $39.7 million and $0.36, respectively, last year. We would note 2Q25 EPS benefited from $11.6 million, or $0.08 per share, of Employee Retention Credits, along with interest thereon, available under the CARES Act. Excluding the CARES Act benefit, 2Q26 adjusted EPS would have reflected more pronounced y-o-y growth.
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$1.18 | Price Target: $2) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Federal Funding for Infrastructure Planning Rating: OUTPERFORM
Federal Funding for Begin-Lamarche. First Phosphate Corp. has finalized agreements with the Government of Canada to receive C$4.84 million in non-repayable funding through Natural Resources Canada’s First and Last Mile Fund to support infrastructure planning for its Bégin-Lamarche phosphate deposit in Québec. The new funding builds on the C$16.7 million previously awarded by NRCan in March 2026, demonstrating continued federal support for advancing the strategic critical minerals project.
Investments in Infrastructure Planning. The funding will support two key initiatives: 1) approximately C$3.07 million for studies and design of a 161-kV power transmission line and substations, and 2) approximately C$1.77 million for planning a new mine access road and evaluating upgrades to bypass roads to support transportation between Begin-Lamarche and regional infrastructure, including rail links and the Port of Saguenay. Both projects include technical, environmental, and economic studies, engineering design, and consultation with indigenous communities and the public.
Graham (GHM/$104.47) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 New Awards Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Awards. Graham Corporation was awarded two contracts for a combined value of over $43 million. These awards reflect the continued demand the Company is seeing across its defense platforms. The revenue for the contracts will be reflected in the Company’s first and second fiscal year 2027 backlog.
MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight Torpedo. The first award is a follow-on fourth option year supporting the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight Torpedo program, awarded in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended June 30, 2026. The Company will continue to provide alternators and regulators under this option year.
Information Services Group (III/$4.26 | Price Target: $6.5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q26 Operating Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Information Services Group had a very strong second quarter, generating the highest quarterly revenue since 2023. Growth in the quarter was led by Europe, up 10%, and the Americas, up 7%, while recurring revenues reached a new quarterly high of $30 million, driven by the Company’s AI-centered research and governance services.
2Q26 Results. Reported revenues for the second quarter were $65.5 million, up 6.4% from $61.6 million in the prior year, and above our $63 million projection. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $9.4 million, up 13% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.3%, compared with 13.5% in the prior year’s second quarter. We were at $8.45 million and 13.4%, respectively. ISG reported adjusted net income for 2Q26 of $5.0 million, or $0.10 per share, compared with adjusted net income of $4.1 million, or $0.08 per share, in 2Q25. We had projected $4.4 million and $0.09/sh.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$10.45 | Price Target: $22) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Strategic Acquisition Enhances Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Accretive Strategic Acquisition. InPlay Oil announced the acquisition of a private oil and gas producer for C$54.25 million, adding approximately 1,400 boe/d of oil-weighted production and increasing company-wide production to more than 20,100 boe/d. The acquired assets are contiguous with InPlay’s existing operations, enabling approximately C$2.5 million of annual cost synergies, while adding 50 drilling locations and immediately enhancing adjusted funds flow and free adjusted funds flow on a per-share basis. The transaction is expected to close by the end of August, subject to customary closing conditions. Post-close, InPlay expects to have more than 450 total drilling locations, including approximately 230 Tier-1 locations.
Corporate Guidance. InPlay continues to execute strongly, with recent Cardium wells materially outperforming expectations and being drilled ahead of schedule, allowing InPlay to expand its 2026 drilling program to 17 net wells on a pro forma basis. Reflecting stronger operational performance and the acquisition, management increased 2026 guidance, including adjusted funds flow (AFF) to C$161 million to C$169 million, free adjusted funds flow (FAFF) to C$79 million to C$89 million, and FAFF yield to 19% to 21%, despite higher capital spending of C$80 million to C$82 million.
NN (NNBR/$3.9 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q26 Operating Results; Deleveraging Transaction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. NN delivered strong financial performance in 2Q26 with record results in many areas. The Company’s 5-pillar growth program is delivering results. New sales are higher margin, attached to higher-growth-rate end markets, and mostly immediate 2026 startup. The second half of 2026 is expected to reflect continued momentum and strong financial performance.
2Q26 Results. Net sales for 2Q26 were $128.7 million, an increase of 19.3% compared to net sales of $107.9 million for the same period in 2025. We were at $116 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.9 million, an increase of 36.1% compared to adjusted EBITDA of $13.2 million for 2Q25, primarily driven by improved sales mix and operating performance. We had projected $15 million. Adjusted net income was $5.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted common share, an increase of $4.7 million, or $0.09 per diluted common share, compared to adjusted net income of $0.7 million, or $0.02 per diluted common share, in 2Q25. We were at $2.2 million and $0.04, respectively.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$1.78 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Implementing the Asset Light Strategy Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. The ONE Group Hospitality’s second quarter 2026 results underscore the momentum the Company is building across the portfolio, driven by the continued strength of the Company’s Vibe Dining brands. Consolidated comparable sales were positive, with positive transaction growth across all segments. Quarterly margin performance was strong, with the consolidated margin expanding 110 basis points to 16.4%.
2Q26 Results. ONE Group reported 2Q26 revenue of $200.5 million, down 3.3% from $207.4 million for the same quarter last year. The decrease was primarily attributable to the closed grill concept restaurants, partially offset by an increase in comparable restaurant sales and sales from new restaurants opened since July 2025. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to ONE Group was $21.1 million in 2Q26 compared to $23.4 million in 2Q25, a decrease of 9.7%, primarily due to increased investment in marketing during the quarter and an increase in general and administrative expenses, excluding stock-based compensation.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Momentum Continues Building CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Opening Another Previously Idle Facility FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates Based on Higher Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 2Q26 Top Line Growth; Momentum Continues to Build Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Branded Products Powers Earnings Growth
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$3.89 | Price Target: $7) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Momentum Continues Building Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. CVG delivered year-over-year revenue growth across all three segments, reflecting ongoing efforts to reduce end-market concentration in cyclical North American Class 8 truck exposure through geographic and end-market diversification. While there are still macroeconomic uncertainties to monitor, CVG is hitting its stride as new business wins are ramping coincidentally with a recovery in key end markets.
2Q26 Results. CVG reported 2Q26 revenue of $195.2 million, up from $172 million in the year-ago period, a 13.5% increase, driven by increased customer demand in international markets and the ramp of previously awarded new business wins across all three operating segments. We were at $173 million. Gross margin improved both y-o-y and sequentially to 12.9%. One-time items impacted the reported bottom line. On an adjusted basis, CVG reported a net loss of $0.13/sh, up from a loss of $0.09/sh last year, reflecting increased incentive comp expense in 2Q26 over 2Q25.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$30.15 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Opening Another Previously Idle Facility Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. CoreCivic has been awarded a new contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to utilize the Company’s 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility located in Appleton, Minnesota, a facility that has been idle since 2010. Awards seem to be picking up once again, especially for previously idle facilities, suggesting to us that ICE is moving back to the tried-and-true detention operating model, with less focus on alternative detention models.
Impact. The new contract commences on August 11, 2026, for a term of five years. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Taking into account start-up activities and the phased commencement of intake operations, we currently expect an immaterial impact to earnings for the remainder of 2026. Once the facility is fully activated, management expects this facility to generate total annual revenue of approximately $75 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2027.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.54 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. RAIL generated a 2Q FY26 adjusted net loss to common stockholders of $821.0 thousand, or $(0.02) per share, compared to adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.11 per share, during the prior year period. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue amounted to 5.5% compared to 15.0% in 2Q FY 2025. Revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $113.1 million and 927, compared to $118.6 million and 939 during the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $1.2 million compared to $9.3 million in 2Q FY 2025.
Updated FY 2026 Guidance. Management updated its FY 2026 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 3,500 to 3,900, revenue in the range of $410 to $460 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $36 to $44 million. Prior guidance projected railcar deliveries in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $41 to $50 million.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$10.65 | Price Target: $20) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Updating Estimates Based on Higher Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. We have increased our Q2 FY2026 revenue, adjusted funds flow (AFF), and AFF per share estimates to C$122.0 million, C$49.6 million, and C$1.77, respectively, from C$104.0 million, C$36.2 million, and C$1.29. While we have lowered our production estimate to 18,663 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from 18,875 boe/d due to Q2 weather impacts, the increases in our estimates are largely due to higher crude oil prices. For FY 2026, we now project revenue, AFF, and AFF per share of C$425.6 million, C$162.5 million, and C$5.80, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of C$406.2 million, C$148.4 million, and C$5.29. Our FY 2026 average production forecast of 18,900 boe/d is unchanged.
Outlook. InPlay has approximately 190 Tier 1 drilling locations that provide an estimated 10 to 15 years of high-return inventory. The company’s low-decline asset base supports sustainable free cash flow generation while limiting capital requirements needed to maintain production. Conservative leverage provides capacity for future acquisitions while maintaining shareholder returns through the dividend.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$51.87 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Strong 2Q26 Top Line Growth; Momentum Continues to Build Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Kratos’ second quarter results reflect strong execution by the Company, in our view. The Company’s strategy, including making internally funded investments to be first-to-market with relevant hardware and software that is engineered up front for affordable mass production at scale and is aligned with the Department of War’s priorities, continues to resonate, in our view.
2Q26 Results. Revenues for the second quarter were $458.8 million, above management’s guide of $400 million-$410 million. We were at $405 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $38.2 million, above the high end of the estimated range of $30 million-$35 million, reflecting the increased revenue and revenue mix. We had forecast $33 million. GAAP net income for 2Q26 was $4.4 million, and GAAP EPS was $0.02, compared to $2.9 million and $0.02, respectively, for 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.21 for 2Q26, compared to $0.11 for 2Q25.
Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$13.95 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Branded Products Powers Earnings Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
An impressive earnings beat. Q2 revenue increased 2.6% to $147.8 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 26.6% to $7.7 million and adjusted EPS more than doubled to $0.21. The results beat our estimates of $143.8 million, $6.5 million, and $0.08 per share, respectively.
Branded Products powers the recovery. Revenue advanced 6.2%, and segment EBITDA increased 24.9% to $11.2 million, supported by a favorable customer mix, improved sourcing, and growing volumes from existing customers. Management indicated that the segment has favorable operating momentum into the second half.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – RAIL Provides Updated Outlook; Webinar at 11:00 AM ET V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Second Quarter Results
FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.24 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 RAIL Provides Updated Outlook; Webinar at 11:00 AM ET Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. RAIL generated a 2Q FY26 adjusted net loss to common stockholders of $821.0 thousand, or $(0.02) per share, compared to adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.11 per share, during the prior year period. We had projected net income of $350 thousand or $0.01 per share. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue amounted to 5.5% compared to 15.0% in 2Q FY 2025. Revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $113.1 million and 927, compared to $118.6 million and 939 during the prior year period. We had forecast revenue of $112.3 million and deliveries of 923. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $1.2 million compared to $9.3 million in 2Q FY 2025 and our estimate of $5.7 million. We had projected higher gross margin.
Updated FY 2026 Guidance. Management updated its FY 2026 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 3,500 to 3,900, revenue in the range of $410 to $460 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $36 to $44 million. Prior guidance projected railcar deliveries in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $41 to $50 million. Our current estimates are at the low end of prior guidance. We will update our estimates following today’s investor call.
V2X (VVX/$86.38 | Price Target: $92) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Solid Second Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. V2X’s reported strong second quarter performance reflecting consistent strategic execution, robust demand for the Company’s differentiated capabilities, and continued alignment to national security priorities. The Company’s recent awards across modernization, global training, aerospace, and mission readiness reinforce the value of V2X’s end-to-end solutions, ability to support global no-fail missions, and pursuit of profitable growth opportunities, in our view.
2Q26 Results. V2X reported revenue of $1.26 billion, up $178.3 million year-over-year, representing a 16.5% increase. We were at $1.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $89.8 million, with a margin of 7.1%, representing an increase of 9% from the prior year. We had forecast $87 million and a 7.3% margin. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.64, up from $1.33 last year. We were at $1.44.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 3, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Execution Drives Higher 2026 Outlook Perfect (PERF)/MARKET PERFORM – Merger Agreement Signed; Share Performance Now Tied to Closing
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$4.22 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Operating Environment. While parts of the operating business are performing well, such as EPOS and back-to-school, other segments remain challenged, especially the International segment both economically and geopolitically, and Brazil as we await elections there. Nonetheless, we remain confident in management’s ability to navigate the environment and emerge even stronger with increased market share.
Capital. At quarter’s end, ACCO had $106.4 million of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. Consolidated leverage ratio at quarter’s end was 4.3x and is expected to end the year in the 3.7x-3.9x range. At quarter’s end, there was approximately $205 million available for borrowing under the revolver. We believe ACCO is well positioned to fund both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.
Codere Online (CDRO/$9.18 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Strong Execution Drives Higher 2026 Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Quarter Across Core Markets. Codere Online reported Q2 net gaming revenue of €69.4 million, up 27% year over year and above our €60.0 million estimate, driven by robust performance in both Spain (+25%) and Mexico (+24%). Active customers increased 12%, while average monthly spend per active customer rose 13%, demonstrating healthy customer engagement and monetization.
Profitability Continues to Improve. Adjusted EBITDA increased to €5.8 million, better than our €2.5 million estimate and €2.3 million in the prior-year period, reflecting improved marketing efficiency and operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 8.4% from 4.3% a year ago, highlighting the scalability of the company’s platform.
Perfect (PERF/$1.92) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Merger Agreement Signed; Share Performance Now Tied to Closing Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Definitive merger agreement signed. Perfect has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by a consortium led by founder and CEO Alice Chang for $2.00 per share in cash. A higher bid remains possible, but unlikely given buyer protections.
Transaction risk materially reduced. The merger was unanimously approved by the Board following the recommendation of an independent Special Committee. In addition, the buyer group has secured voting support representing approximately 53.4% of the outstanding shares and 81.2% of the Company’s voting power. There is an 8% dissenting-share condition, although the controlling group’s voting support still makes shareholder approval highly likely.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 31, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 2Q26 Results AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – AZZ Acquires Seattle Galvanizing Company, Inc. Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – A Standout Second Quarter DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – A New DLH Emerging Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Record Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF)/OUTPERFORM – Moving in the Right Direction Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – A Solid 2Q26 But Still Waiting on Ag Rebound
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$4.23 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look at 2Q26 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. ACCO delivered a strong second quarter, with sales and adjusted EPS exceeding both prior-year results and our estimates. In the Americas segment, sales benefited from strong back-to-school sell-in and better-than-expected performance in Mexico. The International segment faced market softness and shipment disruptions from a planned systems upgrade at ACCO’s largest distribution center in EMEA, which is now complete.
2Q26 Results. Second quarter net sales increased 5.1% to $415.1 million from $394.8 million in 2025. The increase reflected 5.7% from the EPOS acquisition and 1.7% from favorable foreign exchange. Comparable sales declined 2.3% as growth in the Americas segment’s learning and creative category was more than offset by softness in the International segment and technology peripherals globally. Net income was $14.1 million, or $0.15/sh, compared with $29.2 million, or $0.31/sh, in 2025. Adjusted net income increased to $27.4 million from $25.8 million in 2025, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.29 from $0.28 in 2025.
Acquisition of Seattle Galvanizing Company. AZZ Inc. announced the acquisition of Seattle Galvanizing Company, Inc., a privately held provider of both hot-dip and spin galvanizing solutions that is headquartered in Arlington, Washington. The acquisition expands AZZ Metal Coatings’ geographic footprint into the Pacific Northwest by establishing a platform to serve both hot-dip and spin galvanizing customers across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Western Montana, and Alaska from two Seattle-area locations. Seattle Galvanizing Company will be integrated into AZZ Metal Coatings’ existing network of hot-dip galvanizing and spin plants, increasing its total network to 43 sites in North America.
The Pacific Northwest’s Largest Galvanizer. Founded in 1962, Seattle Galvanizing has built a strong reputation for quality, service, and technical capability and has the capacity to process over 50,000 tons of steel. The first state-of-the-art hot-dip galvanizing facility features a 45-foot kettle, the largest in the Pacific Northwest, that will enable AZZ to process larger and more complex steel structures. A second and recently completed 38,000-square-foot spin galvanizing location was purpose-built to coat small to medium-sized metal components.
Codere Online (CDRO/$9.27 | Price Target: $14) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | A Standout Second Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. The company achieved its highest quarterly revenue to date of €69.4 million, up 27% year over year and nearly 16% above our estimate of €60 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Reported adj. EBITDA of €5.8 million also beat our estimate of €2.5 million, driven primarily by exceptional World Cup engagement and robust performance in its core markets of Spain and Mexico.
World Cup Success. The company delivered strong performance around the World Cup. Total stakes during the event reached approximately €63 million, a 180% increase over the 2022 tournament’s levels. Additionally, the company acquired around 40,000 new customers during the event, with a 56% increase in unique users.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.9 | Price Target: $7) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 A New DLH Emerging Rating: OUTPERFORM
3QFY26 Results. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter of 2026 totaled $44.2 million, down from $83.3 million in 3Q25 and below our $50 million estimate. Gross margin of 16.7% fell from 19.1% last year and was below our 20% projection. Partly reflecting one-time charges, DLH reported a net loss of $16.8 million, or $1.16/sh, versus net income of $289,000, or $0.02/sh last year. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.4 million, or 7.6% of revenue, down from $8.1 million and 9.7% last year. Notably, the final CMOP contracts transitioned during the quarter.
Operating Environment. Organic growth continues to be the number one corporate priority. Organic growth will come from two sources: on-contract growth and new awards. We believe on-contract growth will drive near-term growth. Management has a number of contracts with clients that can be expanded. In terms of new business, the government procurement markets have demonstrated improved clarity and stability in recent months, marking a significant improvement in the contracting environment when compared to fiscal 2025 and earlier in 2026.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$17.82 | Price Target: $28) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Record Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Record Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results. Seanergy reported revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $55.7 million, $41.5 million, and $1.32, respectively, compared to $37.5 million, $18.3 million, and $0.18 during the prior year period. We had projected revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $54.9 million, $38.4 million, and $1.15, respectively. Second quarter financial results reflected both materially higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates compared to the prior year quarter and lower-than-expected interest and finance costs relative to our estimates.
Updating Estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS estimates to $205.9 million, $134.2 million, and $3.70, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $203.2 million, $131.3 million, and $3.50. Our revised estimates reflect higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates and fewer off-hire days.
Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF/$1.5 | Price Target: $3.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Moving in the Right Direction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tier 1 Gold Deposit Potential. Tectonic Metals Inc. is a Canadian mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold projects in Alaska, one of the world’s premier mining jurisdictions. The company’s flagship asset is the district-scale Flat Gold Project in southwestern Alaska, which hosts a rapidly growing intrusion-related gold system with multi-million-ounce potential and remains the primary focus of exploration and resource expansion. Tectonic also owns the Tibbs Gold Project in Alaska’s Goodpaster Mining District.
Expanding the Leadership Team. Tectonic Metals recently appointed Ms. Keren Yun as Vice President, Investor Relations to lead investor relations, stakeholder engagement, and capital markets communications. Her appointment will strengthen the company’s engagement with the investment community as the company advances the Flat Gold Project and executes its district-scale exploration strategy. Ms. Yun is a strategic communications and investor relations professional with over two decades of experience working with exploration, development, and producing companies across the global mining sector. Prior to joining Tectonic, Ms. Yun led communications initiatives supporting Wyloo’s Eagle Nest Project in Ontario.
Titan International (TWI/$7.36 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 A Solid 2Q26 But Still Waiting on Ag Rebound Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Titan’s second quarter results reflect solid improvement from the prior year. The Company continues to benefit from its diverse business model, even in the face of ongoing challenging Agriculture end markets. This quarter, it was the Consumer segment that drove performance. Titan’s one-stop-shop product and distribution strategy is a key element of the diverse business model, in our view.
2Q26 Results. Driven by a 27.2% increase in Consumer segment revenue, Titan’s consolidated revenue grew 5.2% to $484 million in the second quarter. This was towards the high end of management’s guidance. We were at $480 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $34 million was up 13.3% y-o-y and exceeded the high end of management’s guidance. We were at $29 million. Titan reported quarterly net income of $6.3 million, or $0.09/sh, partly driven by tariff refund recoveries.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 30, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Governance Simplification Enhances Flexibility EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Intermediate-Term Outlook Remains Favorable; Updating Estimates Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – OCU410 Granted RMAT Designation in Geographic Atrophy The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Another New Contract
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$5.85 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Governance Simplification Enhances Flexibility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Governance Structure Simplified. Alliance Entertainment has amended its Certificate of Incorporation to eliminate the voting rights of its Class E common stock, leaving Class A common stockholders with exclusive voting control while preserving the Class E shares’ economic conversion rights. We view the amendment as a meaningful simplification of the company’s capital structure that should improve governance transparency.
Economic Interests Remain Unchanged. Importantly, the amendment does not affect the economic value of the Class E shares. The shares remain convertible into Class A stock upon specified triggering events and continue to participate economically on an as-converted basis, indicating that the amendment is purely a governance enhancement rather than a dilution event.
Updating Estimates. We have adjusted our second-quarter 2026 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS estimates to $17.4 million, $9.3 million, and $1.44, respectively, from $17.3 million, $8.4 million, and $1.18. Our estimates reflect modestly higher time charter equivalent rates and lower voyage expenses due to lower fuel costs. For FY 2026, we forecast revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $66.0 million, $31.9 million, and $4.27, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of $65.3 million, $30.5 million, and $3.87.
Intermediate-Term Outlook Remains Constructive. The intermediate-term outlook for the dry bulk shipping industry remains favorable, supported by strengthening charter rates, resilient demand for iron ore, grain, and bauxite, and a highly supportive supply backdrop. A historically low order book, limited shipyard capacity, an aging global fleet, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations are expected to constrain vessel supply growth and support freight rates through 2026. While the 2027 outlook offers less certainty, EuroDry has the flexibility to respond to market conditions by increasing its fixed-rate charter coverage.
RMAT Designation Brings Regulatory Advantages For OCU410. Ocugen announced that the FDA has granted Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation to OCU410 for Geographic Atrophy secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration (GA-AMD). The RMAT designation was granted after FDA evaluation of Phase 2 data and provides significant benefits, including Fast Track and Breakthrough Therapy designations.
RMAT Designation Carries Benefits During Clinical Development. The RMAT designation is granted to drugs that address a serious condition with significant unmet need. There are several benefits, including more frequent FDA communications and guidance during clinical trials and the BLA process. This increased FDA contact could allow Ocugen to address development questions earlier, reducing regulatory uncertainty and streamlining the review.
The GEO Group (GEO/$29.95 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Another New Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Contract. Hot on the heels of the Big Horn facility announcement, The GEO Group, Inc. has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the GEO-owned, 1,320-bed Rivers Facility in Winton, North Carolina. Yesterday’s announcement continues new award momentum, which we believe will continue into the second half of 2026.
Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $80 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the Facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – GeoVax Reports 2Q26 With Clinical Study Plans Moving Forward Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Investment Quarter Masks Long-Term Value
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.73 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 GeoVax Reports 2Q26 With Clinical Study Plans Moving Forward Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Reported 2Q26 With Updates For GEO-MVA and Oncology Programs. GeoVax reported a 2Q26 net loss of $4.4 million or $(0.97) per share, lower than our expected loss of $5.8 million. R&D expenses were lower than we projected due to strategic changes, with priority given to preparations for the upcoming Phase 3 trial of GEO-MVA in MPox and the Phase 2 trial of Gedeptin in oncology. Cash on June 30, 2026 was approximately $3.1 million.
Strategic Changes Lowered The 2Q26 Loss. As discussed in our Research Note on May 27, GeoVax will focus on GEO-MVA in infectious diseases and Gedeptin in oncology. These programs have established regulatory pathways, patient needs, and market potential.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$7.55 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Investment Quarter Masks Long-Term Value Rating: OUTPERFORM
Accelerated membership investment weighed heavily on Q2 results. Revenue declined 3% to $23.2 million, while Travelzoo reported a $2.8 million operating loss and a non-GAAP operating loss of $2.1 million. The decline reflected geopolitical uncertainty across Travelzoo’s markets and a deliberate increase in member-acquisition spending.
The recurring-revenue strategy is gaining measurable traction. Membership and subscription revenue increased to approximately $5.0 million in Q2 from $3.0 million in the prior-year period, while deferred revenue rose 54% from year-end to $13.4 million. Membership renewals reached a record level.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI)/OUTPERFORM – Building a More Resilient Local Media Platform First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Momentum Perfect (PERF)/MARKET PERFORM – Fundamentals Overshadowed by Pending Buyout
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.63 | Price Target: $33.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter Financial Results. Compared to the prior year period, second-quarter 2026 revenue increased to $551.6 million from $547.5 million due to strong oil & gas royalty revenues, increased coal sales volumes, and higher other revenues, partially offset by a lower average realized coal sales price per ton. Adjusted EBITDA increased 14.7% to $185.7 million compared to $161.9 million in the second quarter of last year. Adjusted net income attributable to ARLP increased to $79.6 million, or $0.61 per unit, compared to $59.4 million, or $0.46 per unit, during the prior year period. Second quarter financial results were largely in line with our estimates. We had projected total revenue of $553.5 million, adj. EBITDA of $181.2 million, and EPU of $0.62.
Oil & Gas Royalties Remain a Key Growth Driver. The oil & gas royalties segment delivered record quarterly revenue and segment adjusted EBITDA, driven by increased volumes and higher commodity prices. On July 1, ARLP closed the $206.2 million AllDale III and IV acquisition. Crude oil volumes are now expected to be in the range of 1.95 million to 2.05 million barrels, natural gas volumes are expected to be in the range of 10.0 million to 10.5 million MCF, and liquids volumes are expected to be in the range of 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels.
Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI/$21 | Price Target: $31) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Building a More Resilient Local Media Platform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Executing a multi-year turnaround strategy. Management is focused on three strategic priorities: stabilizing local direct advertising, expanding higher-margin owned-and-operated digital products, and strengthening the balance sheet through disciplined deleveraging. We believe successful execution could materially improve the company’s earnings profile over the next several years.
Digital mix continues to improve. Digital revenue represented more than 25% of total company revenue during the first quarter of 2026, while owned-and-operated digital products increased to approximately 65% of digital revenue. We believe the improving revenue mix should support higher margins, stronger customer retention, and improved free cash flow generation over time.
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$1.06 | Price Target: $2) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Gaining Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Building North America’s LFP Supply Chain. First Phosphate Corp. is a Québec-based critical minerals development company focused on establishing a fully integrated North American lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery materials supply chain. First Phosphate is dedicated exclusively to supplying the rapidly expanding LFP battery market through the production of high-purity igneous phosphate, purified phosphoric acid, and iron phosphate precursor materials.
Differentiated with Significant Competitive Advantages. First Phosphate benefits from significant competitive advantages and differentiation within both the phosphate industry and the broader critical minerals sector. Most phosphate producers worldwide focus on fertilizer markets using sedimentary phosphate deposits that require significant upgrading and are generally less suitable for producing battery-grade phosphoric acid. By contrast, First Phosphate is exclusively targeting the LFP battery industry using rare high-purity igneous phosphate, allowing it to focus on higher-value specialty battery materials.
Perfect (PERF/$1.93) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Fundamentals Overshadowed by Pending Buyout Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Another quarter of improving profitability. Revenue remained stable while higher gross margins and disciplined expense management drove another quarter of improving earnings quality.
AI SaaS model continues to scale. Gross margins remained above 80%, demonstrating the attractive economics of the company’s subscription-driven AI platform and expanding operating leverage.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 24, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Board Member Assumes Expanded Role Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 4Q26 Results In-line with Expectations SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Q4 Preview—Building Toward a Cash Flow Inflection
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.14 | Price Target: $0.3) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Board Member Assumes Expanded Role Rating: OUTPERFORM
Supporting Project Advancement. Aurania Resources has appointed current independent director Mr. Thomas Ullrich as Special Advisor, effective immediately, to support the advancement of the company’s strategic projects. Working closely with President and Chief Executive Officer Dr. Keith Barron, Mr. Ullrich will provide strategic guidance on operational and mineral exploration activities, evaluate strategic opportunities, assist with project management, strengthen industry relationships, and help prioritize key initiatives across the company’s portfolio while continuing to serve on the Board of Directors.
Leveraging Experience and Expertise. Mr. Ullrich offers more than 35 years of experience in mineral exploration and geoscience, with expertise encompassing technical exploration, project evaluation, and capital markets. He currently serves as Chief Executive Officer and a director of Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. and previously held senior technical roles with Antofagasta Minerals and Almaden Minerals, where he managed the drill program that led to the discovery of the Ixtaca silver-gold deposit in Mexico. We think Mr. Ullrich’s expanded role will enhance Aurania’s ability to advance its exploration and development initiatives to create long-term shareholder value.
Overview. Resources Connection’s 4Q26 results were mostly in line with management expectations. Overall industry conditions were consistent with 3Q26, suggesting the market is stabilizing. During the quarter, RGP continued to make focused investments to support future growth, which we are hopeful will occur in 2HFY27.
4Q26 Details. Revenue of $106.1 million was down 18.3% on a constant currency basis y-o-y but was within management’s $104-$109 guide. 4Q26 also had one less week of billable activity compared to 4Q25. Gross margin of 37.6% was down from 40.2% y-o-y but exceeded the top end of management’s guide. Adjusted EPS was a net loss of $0.07 compared to EPS of $0.16 in 4Q25.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$0.7 | Price Target: $5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Q4 Preview—Building Toward a Cash Flow Inflection Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 Should Reinforce Improving Cash Flow Story. Although fourth quarter revenue should normalize following the seasonally strong Medicare enrollment period, we expect another quarter of healthy profitability and cash generation that reinforces management’s expectation for a significant cash flow acceleration entering fiscal 2027.
Senior Business Demonstrates Structural Earnings Strength. Even amid continued Medicare Advantage disruption, the Senior business has consistently produced EBITDA margins above 25% during enrollment periods. We expect another solid quarter as disciplined marketing spend and strong customer retention continue to support attractive economics.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 23, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Changes Create A New Cardiac Acute Critical Care Franchise Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates; Growth Outlook Remains Favorable
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$2.1 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Strategic Changes Create A New Cardiac Acute Critical Care Franchise Rating: OUTPERFORM
Advancing Products Through Partnerships. Cadrenal announced that it has modified its development strategy and product pipeline to focus on therapies for cardiac surgical care and orphan cardiac conditions. It now plans to advance the products through development partnerships, licensing, and commercialization agreements to minimize capital expenditures. This announcement formalizes the transition we have seen over the past several months.
Building A “Cardiac Acute Critical Care Franchise”. Cadrenal has refined its clinical focus to late-stage critical-care cardiovascular products for conditions with no effective treatments. It now plans to form partnerships for CAD-1005, frunexian, and tecarfarin, avoiding the large capital raises needed to fund further clinical trials.
Updating Estimates. We have increased our 2Q 2026 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS estimates to $54.9 million, $38.4 million, and $1.15, respectively, from $50.0 million, $35.2 million, and $1.00. Our estimates reflect higher time charter equivalent rates than previously estimated. Moreover, we have lowered our estimates for vessel operating expenses in the second quarter and increased our estimate for general and administrative expenses in the second and third quarters. For FY 2026, we forecast revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $203.2 million, $131.3 million, and $3.50, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of $198.3 million, $130.2 million, and $3.45.
Constructive Outlook. Seanergy’s outlook remains constructive, supported by favorable Capesize market fundamentals, a disciplined capital allocation strategy, and a multi-year fleet modernization program that positions the company to benefit from what we think will be a structurally attractive market through 2029. Following a strong first quarter in which the company reported significantly higher earnings and cash flow, we expect the momentum to continue, with second quarter time charter equivalent (TCE) rates projected to be approximately $31,430 per day.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc. Supports Aftermarket Expansion Strategy Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – More New Business Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Bethania Delivers Record Quarter as Production Gains Momentum
FreightCar America (RAIL/$7.81 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc. Supports Aftermarket Expansion Strategy Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc. FreightCar America announced the acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc., a Monroe, Georgia-based distributor of reconditioned, new, and used railcar parts and equipment. The transaction, funded with cash, represents the company’s second acquisition in the railcar aftermarket segment within the past year.
A Growing Aftermarket Platform. The acquisition advances RAIL’s strategy of building a larger, more diversified aftermarket business that generates recurring revenue and reduces the cyclicality of new railcar manufacturing. Founded in 1988, SP&E has established a strong reputation serving railcar repair shops and private railcar owners. The transaction expands FreightCar’s customer base, enhances sourcing capabilities, and creates additional cross-selling opportunities across its growing aftermarket platform.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$48.21 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 More New Business Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Business. Kratos continues to receive new business, confirming the large growth opportunities available, in our view. The new business highlights the Company’s operating philosophy of having the right products, in the right space, at the right time. The recent awards add to the pile of new business Kratos has been awarded so far in 2026.
C-UAS Award. Kratos was awarded a sole-source, single-award Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract for approximately $156 million by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Secure Transportation (OST) in support of Project Solar Shield. Under this new contract award, Kratos will provide mobile Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS) platforms designed to support OST’s critical National Security mission. The OST is responsible for the safe and secure ground and air transportation of nuclear weapons, weapon components, and special nuclear materials. Kratos was selected following a rigorous technical evaluation.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.47 | Price Target: $2.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Bethania Delivers Record Quarter as Production Gains Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Operating Momentum. Kuya Silver reported another record quarter at its Bethania mine, with mined mineralized material increasing 66% sequentially to 5,097 tonnes. The company also achieved record quarterly silver production of 23,912 ounces or 30,559 silver-equivalent ounces, along with record monthly production in June as underground development, mine sequencing, and production rates continued to improve. Management expects recoveries and grades to continue strengthening as the operation advances toward steady-state production.
Quarterly Financial Highlights. Revenue for the quarter totaled approximately $1.25 million, generated primarily from silver sales, which accounted for 87% of total revenue. Metal sold included 17,450 ounces of silver or 20,006 ounces of silver equivalent. The company realized an average silver selling price of $72 per ounce during the quarter, benefiting from a favorable silver price environment. While quarterly silver sales volumes were lower than the prior year due to the timing of sales, higher realized silver prices supported revenue growth as production continued to ramp toward higher sustainable mining rates. We expect the company to release full second quarter financial and operational results in mid-August.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI)/OUTPERFORM – Modifications To Phase 3 FLAMINGO-01 Trial Raise Probability Of Success NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Further Expansion in the Defense Industry T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Stock Split Complete
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI/$14.07 | Price Target: $45) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Modifications To Phase 3 FLAMINGO-01 Trial Raise Probability Of Success Rating: OUTPERFORM
Trial Modifications Announced. Greenwich Pharmaceuticals announced modifications to the Phase 3 FLAMINGO-01 trial testing GLS-100 for the prevention of recurrent breast cancer. Several changes reflect preliminary findings and allow for increased enrollment in the pivotal arm of the trial. We believe the changes increase the likelihood of positive results in the interim and the final analyses, as well as potentially doubling the market.
The Original Phase 3 Design. The original trial design screened patients for HLA type, an immune system classification. Patients with HLA-A*02, the most common type, were randomized into two double-blind arms testing GLSI-100 against a placebo control. The non-HLA-A*02 patients were entered into an open-label arm. Following the standard of care treatment for breast cancer, patients were given six monthly doses of GLSI-100, then boosters every 6 months for 11 total doses.
NN (NNBR/$3.48 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Further Expansion in the Defense Industry Rating: OUTPERFORM
Contract Manufacturing. NN continues to expand into new and adjacent segments, providing the Company with strong growth opportunities, in our view. Most recently, NN successfully entered the Tier 1 contract manufacturing industry for firearm components in the United States market.
Details. NN’s contract manufacturing agreement is to mass-produce completed firearms products for a leading provider of firearms products in the U.S. This new business begins in the third quarter and will continue ramping up through 2028. This new business is expected to add between $12 million and $15 million in sales. Due to the multipart complexity of this new product line, these products are now the highest-priced products in the Company’s portfolio of new products.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$4.26 | Price Target: $20) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Stock Split Complete Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse Stock Split. As outlined in prior reports, T3 underwent a 1-for-125 reverse stock split to regain compliance with Nasdaq regulations. As a result, the number of outstanding shares declined from approximately 139.8 million to approximately 1.1 million. We adjusted our model to reflect the impact on earnings per share.
Impact. Assuming the stock split only impacts the forward quarters, the 2Q adjusted net loss increases to $2.87/sh, 3Q to a loss of $2.16/sh, and 4Q to a net loss of $1.75/sh, up from a previous projected net loss of $0.06/sh, $0.03/sh, and $0.02 per share, respectively, Full year net loss increases to $3.90/sh, up from a prior full year net loss forecast of $0.50/sh. If we adjusted 1Q26 EPS loss to the 1.1 million outstanding shares, full-year net loss rises to $30.26/sh, which includes a number of one-time non-cash charges. The share change does not impact our estimates for adjusted EBITDA, which remains at a loss of $6 million for 2026.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 17, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Building Momentum Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Resolution Minerals Receives FAST-41 Designation for Golden Gate T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Increases Reverse Split Ratio to 1-for-125 from 1-for-50
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$46.96 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Building Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Momentum. Recent awards, facilities expansion, world events, and increasing defense spending worldwide are combining to provide positive momentum to Kratos’ business, in our view. With proven, existing products focused on key areas of new Defense priorities, we continue to believe Kratos is well-positioned to capitalize on the current operating environment.
$400M Hypersonics. The Company recently received approximately $400 million in funding from the Department of War (DoW) related to certain hypersonic systems and other National Security related programs. Notably, beginning in June and both increasing and accelerating into July, Kratos is seeing significant funding from the DoW, which is expected to accelerate the Company’s organic growth rate, increase operating cash receipts, while reducing customer receivables, inventory, and assets where Kratos had previously “leaned forward” to ensure Kratos met or exceeded customers’ schedule-related and other expectations.
Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF/$0.04 | Price Target: $0.15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Resolution Minerals Receives FAST-41 Designation for Golden Gate Rating: OUTPERFORM
Golden Gate FAST-41 Designation. Resolution Minerals’ Golden Gate Project in Idaho has been granted FAST-41 Transparency Coverage by the U.S. Federal Permitting Council, making it the Company’s second project to receive the designation after Antimony Ridge. The designation highlights the strategic importance of the Horse Heaven Project as a domestic source of tungsten, antimony, and gold and is expected to accelerate permitting through enhanced federal coordination and oversight.
Golden Gate Plan of Operations. The Golden Gate Project is part of Resolution’s 15,000-acre Horse Heaven Project, which also includes the Antimony Ridge target, the Johnson Creek Tungsten Mill, and historical tungsten stockpiles. The Company has submitted a Plan of Operations that includes construction of new access roads, up to 340 drill holes and 2,000 feet of trenching, while continuing a fully funded 45-hole drilling program to advance resource definition.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$0.05 | Price Target: $0.8) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Increases Reverse Split Ratio to 1-for-125 from 1-for-50 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increased Ratio. Yesterday, T3 announced that, given the recent stock activity, the T3 Board of Directors determined to significantly increase the ratio from the 1-for-50 disclosed in July 13th’s 8-K to 1-for-125. T3 Defense still expects that its common stock will open for trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market on a reverse split-adjusted basis on July 20, 2026, under the existing trading symbol “DFNS”.
Impact. At the Effective Date of the reverse stock split, every 125 shares of common stock outstanding and held of record by each stockholder of the Company will be automatically reclassified into one new share of Common Stock, reducing the number of shares of common stock issued and outstanding from approximately 139.8 million to approximately 1 million. We will update our models and price target following the split.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 16, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Century Lithium Advances Commercial Readiness CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Redeeming 4.75% Notes Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF)/OUTPERFORM – Advancing the Nisk Project Toward Development T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Reverse Split The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – New Contract with ICE; Raising Price Target
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.18 | Price Target: $3.05) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Century Lithium Advances Commercial Readiness Rating: OUTPERFORM
Angel Island Lithium Carbonate to High-Purity Lithium Metal. Century Lithium announced that lithium carbonate produced from its wholly owned Angel Island Lithium Project in Nevada was successfully converted into high-purity lithium metal by Alpha-En Corporation using its proprietary extraction and electrodeposition technology and subsequently incorporated into cylindrical battery cells manufactured by EaglePicher Technologies. The work was completed under the U.S. Army Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, which supports the development of technologies critical to national defense.
Strong Battery Performance. Testing demonstrated that the lithium metal anodes met EaglePicher’s performance specifications and delivered higher operating voltages and improved power performance compared with control cells. These results highlight the suitability of Angel Island lithium for advanced, high-energy battery applications while validating the project’s potential to supply a domestic source of battery-grade lithium for defense-related technologies.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$31.09 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Redeeming 4.75% Notes Rating: OUTPERFORM
Redemption. CoreCivic has elected to redeem in full the 4.75% Senior Notes due 2027 that remain outstanding on August 12, 2026. This was an expected use of funds from the recently announced sale of two facilities to the Federal government. As of July 13, 2026, the principal amount of the outstanding 2027 Notes was $238,468,000. We anticipate additional debt reduction with a portion of the remaining sale proceeds.
Detail. The 2027 Notes will be redeemed at a redemption price equal to 100.000% of the principal amount of the then-outstanding 2027 Notes, plus the applicable “make-whole” premium specified in the indenture, as supplemented, governing the 2027 Senior Notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but not including, the Redemption Date. We estimate the annual interest expense savings to be approximately $11.3 million.
Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF/$0.74 | Price Target: $2.65) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Advancing the Nisk Project Toward Development Rating: OUTPERFORM
Building Momentum. Power Metallic is advancing the Nisk Project from exploration toward development, with a maiden NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate expected by the end of July 2026, followed by a Preliminary Economic Assessment which we anticipate could be completed in December 2026. The addition of mining executive Mr. Christopher Beal as Vice President of Operations further strengthens the company’s technical and operational capabilities as it progresses toward engineering studies and future development.
Drilling Continues to Deliver. Recent drilling reinforced the exceptional quality of the Lion Zone, highlighted by an intercept of 36.42 meters grading 2.83% copper equivalent, including 6.0 meters grading 12.38% copper equivalent. Combined with consistently high-grade drill results, strong metallurgical recoveries, and multiple target areas, the Nisk Project has the potential to become a significant polymetallic mining district.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$0.07 | Price Target: $0.8) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Reverse Split Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse Split. T3 is implementing a 50-for-1 reverse stock split. The reverse stock split will become effective as of 12:01 a.m., Eastern Time, on July 20, 2026, and the Company’s common stock will begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market on a split-adjusted basis when the market opens on July 20, 2026.
Rationale. The Company is implementing the reverse stock split to raise the per-share bid price of the Company’s common stock above $1.00 per share and bring the Company back into compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a). The Company will have regained compliance once the Company’s shares trade at or above $1.00 for a minimum of 10 consecutive trading days, at which time Nasdaq will provide the Company with notice that it has regained compliance.
The GEO Group (GEO/$29.82 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 New Contract with ICE; Raising Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Contract. The GEO Group has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 1,188-bed Big Horn Facility. GEO has entered into a lease agreement with the Facility owner. We view the new award positively and expect to see more such announcements going forward as ICE continues to seek out partners to assist the Agency in fulfilling its mission.
Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, excluding transportation revenue. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.
New unemployment filings dropped for a second straight week, pointing to a labor market that stays steady even as hiring cools, giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on inflation. But a separate report showed the goods trade deficit widening to its largest in over a year, a reminder that the growth story beneath the calm jobs data is more complicated.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 203,000 for the week ended August 22, the Labor Department said, below the 208,000 economists expected and a second straight weekly decline. Claims have spent the year in a tight 189,000–230,000 band and are now near the low end, signaling that employers aren’t shedding workers even if they aren’t hiring aggressively. Despite a surprise dip in July payrolls, unemployment edged down again to a historically low 4.1%.
Continuing claims, a rough proxy for how hard it is to find new work, fell 18,000 to 1.778 million, the lowest in a month. That week also aligned with the survey period for the August payrolls report, giving it extra weight.
Some analysts argue the picture is steadier than the official figures imply. Private data from payroll processors and labor-market analytics firms point to a job market in better balance than the choppier government numbers suggest, with modest but consistent private hiring roughly at the pace needed to keep unemployment flat.
A stable labor market frees the Fed to keep leaning against inflation, which has run above its 2% target for 65 consecutive months. That’s the backdrop as policymakers gather in Jackson Hole, where Chair Kevin Warsh delivers a closely watched keynote Friday, under pressure to address whether inflation is still a threat.
He isn’t short on colleagues sounding the alarm. Three voting members dissented last month against holding rates at 3.50%–3.75%, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge held at 3.7%. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid called inflation stubborn and sticky; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee named it his top worry.
The goods trade deficit widened to $118.8 billion in July from $101.4 billion in June, the largest since March 2025, when importers front-loaded ahead of “Liberation Day” tariffs. It’s an awkward figure for a White House leaning on tariffs to shrink the gap.
Exports slipped 2.9% to $199.4 billion, dragged by an 11.2% drop in industrial goods. Imports climbed 3.7% to $318.2 billion, powered by an 11.3% surge in capital-goods imports tied to the AI buildout. Oxford Economics’ Matthew Martin expects that demand to persist into 2027. But the near-term cost is to GDP, with trade likely a drag for a fourth straight quarter, an estimated one-point hit in Q3 after subtracting 1.14 points in Q2.
Two reports, two signals. Jobs data says the foundation is intact, giving the Fed cover to focus on prices; trade data says the AI boom lifting markets is also weighing on output. Warsh’s Friday remarks are the next place to look.
Volato Group (NYSE American: SOAR), which built its business around AI-powered software for aviation and operates the Vaunt private aviation membership marketplace, has signed a definitive agreement to merge with Alignment Engine, an Ohio-based AI infrastructure company, in a transaction valuing Alignment Engine at approximately $500 million. Volato will remain the publicly traded parent company once the deal closes, but the combination represents a complete transformation of what the company actually does, pivoting from aviation technology toward data centers, high-performance computing, and AI infrastructure.
The centerpiece of the deal is Alignment Engine’s powered industrial campus in Ohio, which currently has 154 megawatts of available power with total planned capacity of 480 megawatts. Volato intends to use that infrastructure to support high-performance GPU compute and networking for AI training and inference, along with other compute-intensive workloads, positioning the combined company to lease or operate data center capacity for AI customers rather than continuing to build aviation software.
This transaction did not appear out of nowhere. In June, Volato secured a $2.2 million strategic investment led by Catheter Precision specifically to strengthen its balance sheet while it evaluated acquisition and merger opportunities in AI infrastructure, data infrastructure, compute, and power generation. That investment came shortly after Volato terminated a previously announced transaction with a different party, and the company disclosed at the time it had already received two unsolicited, non-binding letters of intent related to AI data center and power generation opportunities. This merger with Alignment Engine appears to be the outcome of that broader strategic search.
Investors need to weigh this deal with real care. Volato is transforming from a small, aviation-focused company with no meaningful prior track record in data center development or operation into an AI infrastructure platform almost overnight. Alignment Engine’s power capacity is genuine and substantial, but having available power is only one piece of what it actually takes to build, finance, and operate a functioning data center campus at scale, additional capital for construction, cooling infrastructure, customer contracts, and specialized operational expertise all still need to come together. The company’s own recent history, including a terminated prior transaction and a small bridge investment just to fund due diligence on opportunities like this one, reflects a business still very much in transition rather than one with established execution in this space.
That said, the strategic logic behind the pivot is consistent with the broader data center construction boom we detailed in a recent cornerstone piece on this exact theme, where power availability has become one of the single largest bottlenecks constraining new AI infrastructure development nationally. A company with 154 megawatts already available, rather than merely planned, is positioning itself around a genuine scarcity in that buildout. Whether Volato can successfully execute on that opportunity, rather than simply owning the right raw materials, will be the real test in the months ahead.
Tesla will unveil the production version of its Cybercab at a launch event in Austin on September 3, according to invitations that surfaced among Tesla watchers over the weekend and were subsequently confirmed by outlets covering the electric vehicle industry. The vehicle itself is notable for what it lacks: no steering wheel, no pedals, a two-seat design built entirely around autonomy rather than adapted from an existing model. It represents Tesla’s first vehicle engineered purely to run on the company’s Full Self-Driving software as part of the robotaxi fleet the company launched in Austin last year using modified Model Ys.
Tesla shares were little changed on the unofficial confirmation, but the muted stock reaction understates just how much is actually riding on this vehicle’s success. Tesla’s current valuation carries a meaningful premium built on the assumption that the company can convert its robotaxi ambitions into an autonomous ride-hailing network at scale, in addition to selling Full Self-Driving subscriptions to private owners at software-like profit margins rather than traditional auto manufacturing margins. The Cybercab is the physical product meant to prove that thesis works.
A Competitive Landscape Just Got Clearer
The timing is notable for a second reason. Last week, the Nevada Transportation Authority unanimously approved permits clearing Tesla, Alphabet’s Waymo, and Uber to operate commercial robotaxis in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, authorizing up to 8,000 driverless vehicles over the next twelve months. Tesla secured the largest allocation at roughly 5,000 vehicles, though the company’s Cybercab chief engineer told regulators Tesla expects to actually field closer to 2,500 within the year, noting the 5,000 figure has always represented a ceiling rather than a target. Waymo, widely viewed as the current leader in autonomous ride-hailing, was cleared for up to 1,000 vehicles, while Uber secured roughly 1,100 combined through partnerships with Hyundai-backed Motional and Amazon’s Zoox unit.
That approval gives investors a genuinely useful, apples-to-apples comparison point across three major public companies, Tesla, Alphabet, and Uber, all racing toward commercial autonomous ride-hailing in the same market simultaneously. Local taxi and livery operators have already pushed back, warning of oversaturation and congestion risk, and Tesla still faces the harder task of proving to regulators and the public that a Cybercab can operate safely with genuinely no one in the driver’s seat, not just in a permitted market but at the commercial scale its valuation assumes.
For investors tracking the broader market beyond Tesla itself, this launch and the accompanying Nevada approval illustrate something worth watching closely: autonomous vehicle technology is no longer a distant, speculative theme confined to a single company’s investor presentations. It is now a live, permitted, multi-company competitive race playing out in real regulatory jurisdictions, with real vehicle counts attached. That shift creates downstream implications for smaller companies supplying the sensors, lidar systems, mapping software, and specialized components that every one of these robotaxi fleets, regardless of which company ultimately wins market share, will need in growing volume as commercial deployment expands beyond pilot markets like Austin and Las Vegas into additional cities over the coming years.
The race for the largest IPO of 2026 has a new challenger, and it hasn’t even filed a public prospectus yet. Prediction market data from Polymarket shows Anthropic rapidly closing the gap with SpaceX for the title of the year’s biggest public offering, driven by revenue growth that is accelerating faster than most analysts had modeled just months ago. Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s annualized revenue for 2026 is now on track to top $65 billion, up sharply from a $47 billion pace in May, positioning the company for a potential fourth quarter market debut.
Notably, OpenAI, Anthropic’s chief rival and another company that could plausibly go public later this year, is not currently registering as a serious contender in the same prediction market data, despite its own scale and continued speculation about a near-term listing.
SpaceX Still Holds the Crown, for Now
For context on what Anthropic would actually need to beat, SpaceX priced its historic offering at $135 per share on June 11, selling 555.6 million shares and valuing the company at $1.78 trillion. The stock opened for trading the following day around $150 and climbed steadily through the session on heavy institutional and retail demand, closing its first day at $160.95, a 19.2% gain that instantly pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization to $2.1 trillion. Shares later peaked near $225 before falling to lows around $104 as investors grew concerned about upcoming lockup expirations and the scale of the company’s capital expenditure plans, a volatility pattern we detailed closely in our coverage of the debut itself. SpaceX has since recovered to roughly $146 a share, valuing the company at $1.93 trillion.
One market strategist covering the name recently argued that betting against Elon Musk has historically been a losing strategy and expects that to remain true here as well, while cautioning investors to prepare for continued sharp swings in either direction.
What the Anthropic Comparison Actually Reveals
Anthropic is currently valued at approximately $1 trillion in private markets, compared to $894 billion for OpenAI, according to Yahoo Finance private market tracking data. That $65 billion annualized revenue run rate is the more important number in this story, since prediction markets are not simply betting on company size, they are betting on whether Anthropic’s growth trajectory can support an offering large enough to eclipse SpaceX’s historic debut, an event we covered as it happened back on June 12.
For investors watching the 2026 IPO calendar, and by extension the broader capital rotation such offerings tend to trigger across public markets, this is worth tracking closely for a specific reason. When Anthropic filed confidentially for its IPO this summer at a reported valuation approaching $965 billion, we noted that the AI capital cycle had entered a genuinely new phase. A fourth quarter debut that could rival or exceed SpaceX’s own historic listing would represent the clearest confirmation yet of that thesis, and would likely reignite the same kind of capital rotation into smaller AI infrastructure and services companies that followed SpaceX’s own debut in June.
The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.327% on Tuesday, its highest level in 19 years, as stalled talks to end the US-Iran war and renewed fears of escalation pushed oil prices above $90 a barrel and reignited inflation concerns across global markets. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to 4.739%. The selloff was not contained to US markets either, spreading to Japan, where the 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year peak, and to Europe, where Germany’s 10-year Bund yield touched its highest level since 2011 and France’s 10-year yield reached a 17-year high.
The proximate trigger is the same conflict that has driven energy markets and inflation expectations for much of the year. Iran told officials it would shift to a fully offensive military posture after negotiations toward a permanent end to the war stalled, while Washington has ruled out extending the ceasefire agreement reached in June. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut, the best-case scenario according to strategists covering the region is a prolonged standoff that continues restricting crude flows, while the worst case is a resumption of active fighting.
This Is Not Just an Oil Story
What makes this move genuinely notable is that oil and geopolitics are only part of the explanation. Analysts covering global rates point to at least three additional structural forces pushing long-term yields higher independent of the Iran conflict. The surge in borrowing from AI hyperscalers, whose capital expenditure plans have accelerated sharply throughout 2026, is forcing bond buyers to demand higher returns to absorb the flood of new debt hitting markets. A rising US budget deficit is compounding that pressure, with recent Treasury auctions drawing unusual attention, a 10-year note auction clearing at 4.683%, its highest yield in 19 years, and a 30-year bond auction stopping at 5.216%, a 25-year peak.
Notably, one strategist covering the move specifically named Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s shift toward a more opaque communication style as a contributing factor to rising yields, a shift in tone that has drawn scrutiny ahead of his upcoming Jackson Hole address and the market confusion that followed his July press conference. Reduced clarity from the Fed appears to be compounding, rather than easing, the uncertainty already priced into long-duration debt.
For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, this combination of forces is directly consequential. Small and microcap companies carry disproportionately more variable-rate debt than large cap peers, and a 30-year yield at its highest level since 2007 signals that the higher-cost-of-capital environment weighing on smaller businesses is not easing, it is intensifying. One market strategist noted that for much of the past 15 years, investors operated in a market where stable-to-falling rates consistently supported higher stock prices, but recent Treasury auctions suggest that landscape is genuinely shifting, with investors increasingly focused on the growing scale of US debt and questions about fiscal discipline. For small cap investors, that shift deserves close attention heading into the fall.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. Our constructive view reflects the company’s multiyear transformation through the Lexmark acquisition, expansion of IT Solutions and Digital Services, and continued focus on operating efficiency. We believe these initiatives can moderate revenue declines, improve profitability and cash generation, and ultimately support a multiyear earnings recovery and valuation re-rating.
Lexmark Integration Positioned to Drive Significant Profit Growth. The acquisition of Lexmark expands Xerox’s global scale and is expected to generate at least $350 million in gross cost synergies by the end of 2027. In our view, it provides a clear path toward ameaningful improvement in operating leverage and competitive positioning.
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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Small-cap stocks just delivered their best first half on record, and almost nobody is talking about where the money went next.
U.S. small caps returned 22.93% in the first half of 2026, outpacing large caps at 9.55% by the widest margin in history for that stretch. It is the kind of number that normally sends investors scrambling to add exposure. Yet the flow of capital into small-cap funds tells a different story, one that raises an obvious question: if small caps are winning this decisively, why hasn’t the money followed?
The data shows a real disconnect. Small-cap ETFs pulled in roughly $7 billion during the first half of the year. Large-cap ETFs, by comparison, absorbed $309 billion over the same period. On the mutual fund side, small-cap funds have seen about $8 billion in net inflows year to date, a modest turnaround after $8 billion in outflows the year before. Actively managed small-cap funds have fared even worse, continuing to lose assets as investors keep shifting toward passive strategies more broadly.
In other words, small caps are outperforming while investors remain largely on the sidelines. That gap between performance and participation is unusual, and some market strategists see it as meaningful. State Street has pointed to the lag as a sign the rally may have room to keep running, arguing that a rotation this significant with so little capital chasing it is not the profile of a crowded trade. If allocators eventually catch up to the performance numbers, the argument goes, the current move could extend further rather than reverse.
Not everyone is convinced. BlackRock has reportedly kept a more cautious stance on small caps as a group, citing ongoing uncertainty around financing conditions and the broader macro backdrop. Smaller companies tend to carry more floating-rate debt and less balance sheet cushion than their large-cap counterparts, which makes them more sensitive to shifts in interest rates and credit availability. That sensitivity cuts both ways. It can amplify gains when conditions turn favorable, but it can just as easily amplify losses if the environment shifts.
There is also a more speculative data point worth noting with some caution. MoneyFlows, a firm that tracks proprietary money-flow signals, claims that nearly 98% of its tracked equity inflows this year have gone into companies with market capitalizations under $300 billion, which it frames as evidence of institutional accumulation building beneath the surface. Unlike the ETF and mutual fund flow data from sources such as Morningstar and State Street, this is a promotional research product, and the claim should be weighed accordingly.
What is clear is that small caps have already made their move on performance. Whether capital flows catch up, stall, or reverse from here may say more about the durability of this rally than the first-half numbers themselves. For investors watching the space, the next few months of fund flow data could matter as much as the earnings results that got small caps here in the first place.
Federal Reserve officials gather in Jackson Hole in two weeks for a symposium that arrives at a genuinely pivotal moment for the central bank. All eyes will be on Chair Kevin Warsh’s first speech in that role, historically a venue Fed chairs use to set the table for upcoming policy decisions or signal structural shifts in approach. This year, the stakes are higher than usual, following a July 29 meeting that left markets confused and a policy committee that appears genuinely divided.
At that meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive session, as expected. What rattled markets was Warsh’s press conference performance, where he repeatedly deflected questions about why the Fed was not raising rates and suggested that rising bond yields themselves were doing some of the Fed’s tightening work. Markets responded by aggressively pricing in more than two rate hikes in the weeks that followed, alongside genuine uncertainty about whether the committee has a coherent strategy at all.
Since that meeting, the incoming data has offered modest relief. Core CPI rose 2.5% year over year in July, marking a second consecutive month of cooling from 2.6% in June and 2.9% in May. Producer price data told a more mixed story. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 4.7% year over year, slightly hotter than expected though down from June’s 5.1% pace, while the monthly reading cooled to 0.2% from an upwardly revised 0.4% in June.
Both figures feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due for release August 26, just days before the Jackson Hole gathering. Economists estimate core PCE rose somewhere between 0.16% and 0.3% in July, a range wide enough that it genuinely could push the committee in either direction.
The range of professional forecasts illustrates just how unresolved this debate is. Some economists estimate July’s core PCE reading held firm enough to keep the annual rate sticky near 3.3%, arguing that could actually harden the resolve of policy hawks rather than ease it. Others view the broader disinflation trend, tied to fading tariff effects and easing oil prices following the resolution of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, as evidence the Fed can remain patient through year-end, while still leaving the door open to tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. A third camp sees the data pointing toward a soft enough reading to pull the three-month annualized core PCE rate down to 2.5%, which would make a September hike look considerably less likely than markets currently expect.
That range of outside opinion mirrors a genuine split inside the Fed itself. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting, has continued arguing publicly that more than one rate increase is needed to bring inflation fully under control. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams has suggested that if monthly core PCE consistently prints around 0.2% through the second half of the year, it would signal inflation returning to target on its own, without further tightening. Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, now outside the institution, has cautioned that one or two encouraging months of data is not persuasive evidence that underlying inflation pressure, elevated for more than five years, is genuinely breaking, particularly with the labor market still near full employment.
For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, this unresolved debate matters directly. Small and microcap companies carry disproportionately more variable-rate debt than large cap peers, making their borrowing costs highly sensitive to exactly the kind of uncertainty currently surrounding the Fed’s next move. The market will receive one more full month of inflation data, including the volatile August CPI report, before the September meeting itself, meaning the path forward remains almost entirely data-dependent. Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be the first real signal of how he is weighing that data, and small cap investors watching the cost of capital heading into the fall would do well to treat it as required listening.
Mobix Labs (Nasdaq: MOBX), a semiconductor and defense electronics company, announced Wednesday it has signed a definitive all-stock agreement to acquire Special Project Delivery, a pre-revenue infrastructure development platform pursuing rare earth elements, critical minerals, energy storage, and Western US water resources. The deal is structured with consideration capped at 4.8 million Mobix shares, with closing targeted before the end of 2026, subject to shareholder approval.
Shares of Mobix climbed 5% in premarket trading following the announcement, recovering from a nearly 6% decline the prior session.
This is not a typical semiconductor company acquisition. Mobix currently supplies advanced wireless components and RF technology used in aerospace, defense, and homeland security systems, work that includes existing relationships with Boeing on 737 aircraft programs. The SPD deal adds an entirely different layer to that business: upstream control over the raw materials, energy infrastructure, and water resources that defense manufacturing and critical mineral processing actually depend on.
Mobix Chairman Jim Peterson framed the deal as central to the company’s broader National Security Matters initiative, describing control of strategic domestic mineral rights as fundamental to America’s long-term industrial strength. That initiative, launched earlier this year, has already included a separate acquisition of drone maker Vision Aerial, positioning Mobix as a company trying to assemble components, autonomous systems, and now raw materials under a single national security platform, rather than remaining a narrow RF and semiconductor supplier.
Investors need to understand what this transaction is and is not. SPD is explicitly described as pre-revenue, meaning it currently generates no sales. The company’s positioning across rare earth elements, critical minerals, energy storage, and water infrastructure remains largely conceptual at this stage, with no specific mineral deposits, resource grades, separation technology, capital expenditure estimates, permitting status, or customer commitments disclosed publicly as part of this announcement. Mobix itself is a microcap company that has carried substantial losses and limited liquidity in its own recent financial history.
This combination of a loss-making microcap acquirer and a pre-revenue target operating in a capital-intensive, multi-year development category, rare earth and critical mineral processing, is a materially higher-risk profile than a typical revenue-generating acquisition. The strategic thesis, positioning around America’s push to reduce dependence on foreign rare earth supply chains, is genuinely timely and aligned with a broader theme playing out across defense and industrial policy in 2026. But thematic alignment and executable, funded infrastructure are two very different things at this stage of the deal.
Why the Theme Itself Is Worth Watching Regardless
Independent of this specific transaction’s execution risk, the broader push toward domestic rare earth and critical mineral supply chains remains one of the more significant structural themes in the small cap space this year. Government-backed investment in quantum computing, semiconductor manufacturing, and critical minerals has accelerated sharply, and smaller companies positioning early in that supply chain, whether through actual production assets or, as in this case, an earlier-stage development platform, are drawing real investor attention as a result.
For investors tracking this space, the Mobix-SPD deal is a useful case study in distinguishing between a company aligning itself with a compelling macro theme and a company that has actually built or acquired producing assets within that theme. The rare earth and critical minerals buildout in the United States is real and accelerating. Whether any single microcap deal successfully executes on that opportunity is a separate question entirely, one that depends on capital access, permitting, technical validation, and years of infrastructure development still ahead.
CALGARY, AB, Aug. 13, 2026 /CNW/ — InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (TASE: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. InPlay’s unaudited interim financial statements and notes, and Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 will be available at “www.sedarplus.ca” and the Company’s website at “www.inplayoil.com“. An updated corporate presentation will be available on our website in due course.
Second Quarter 2026 Highlights:
Achieved average quarterly production of 18,663 boe/d(1) (62% light crude oil and NGLs), a 2% increase from Q1 2026.
Improved light oil production to 9,382 bbl/d, a 6% increase from Q1 2026. Light crude oil weighting improved by 3% from Q1 2026 driving stronger per boe netbacks and returns.
Realized strong operating income of $68.4 million, a 50% increase from Q1 2026, resulting in an operating income profit margin(4) of 55%, a 7% improvement from Q1 2026. Field operating netbacks(4) improved to $40.26/boe, an increase of 46% compared to Q1 2026.
Delivered Adjusted Funds Flow (“AFF”)(2) of $44.7 million ($1.61 per weighted average basic share(3)), a 48% increase from Q1 2026.
Generated significant Free Adjusted Funds Flow (“FAFF”)(4) of $28.4 million.
Returned $7.6 million to shareholders via monthly dividends (7.2% yield relative to current share price). Since November 2022, InPlay has returned $82 million ($4.14/share) to shareholders through dividends, including dividends declared to date in the third quarter.
Under the Normal Course Issuer Bid initiated on May 21, 2026, began repurchasing shares in June and 0.5% of outstanding shares were cancelled.
Subsequent Events:
On August 5, 2026, the Company announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a private oil and gas producer for cash consideration of $54.25 million, prior to closing adjustments adding 1,400 boe/d of current production and 50 additional net drilling locations all in our core Pembina area.
On July 24, 2026, the Company renewed its Senior Credit Facility, which now consists of committed amounts of a $140 million revolving line of credit and a $50 million operating line of credit. In addition, the borrowing base was expanded by $60 million, for a total borrowing base of $250 million.
Message to Shareholders:
The second quarter of 2026 was another period of strong execution for InPlay. Operationally, InPlay’s first half capital program was executed under budget and ahead of schedule, continuing our track-record of doing more with less. InPlay’s H1 2026 drilling program also achieved IP rates that were 30% – 48% ahead of our internal projections, resulting in corporate oil production exceeding internal forecasts.
The combination of high oil prices and strong oil production led to InPlay delivering quarterly AFF of $44.7 million, the highest quarterly level in its 10- year history as a public company. InPlay also returned $7.6 million ($0.27/share) to shareholders through dividends and repurchased $2.2 million (0.5% of shares outstanding), while also reducing net debt.
InPlay’s financial strength positioned the Company to be able to sign a definitive agreement to acquire a private oil and gas producer for cash consideration of $54.25 million (the “Acquisition“), funded entirely through our recently expanded credit capacity. Completing an acquisition of this quality without dilution to shareholders directly enhances per share growth and accretion. The Acquisition is expected to be 18% accretive on both AFF per share and FAFF per share, while adding 1,400 boe/d of production (85% liquids) and 50 net drilling locations in our core areas.
The Acquisition builds on InPlay’s decade-long track record of value-add M&A, utilizing conservative leverage ratios to acquire high-quality, free cash flow generating assets to generate sustainable long-term shareholder returns while maintaining a conservative balance sheet. This approach supports the rapid repayment of acquisition debt, positioning the Company for the next accretive opportunity. The Acquisition advances InPlay’s strategy of building a disciplined, sustainable light oil growth company by increasing production, AFF and FAFF per share while expanding its high-quality drilling inventory. The complementary assets of the Acquisition directly offset InPlay’s existing operations and infrastructure, delivering immediate operational synergies.
InPlay’s year to date capital program has been completed below budget, allowing the Company to increase the number of planned wells by 30% with only a 15% increase in capital (from mid-point). InPlay expanded its pre-acquisition capital program to drill a total of 15.0 net Cardium wells, an increase from 13.0 net (mid-point) Cardium wells in our original capital budget. In addition, 2.0 net Belly River wells are planned on the acquired assets, resulting in a pro forma capital program of $80 – $82 million drilling 17.0 net horizontal wells.
InPlay has increased 2026 average annual production guidance to 18,900 boe/d – 19,400 boe/d(1) (61% – 63% light oil and NGLs). The Company also increased 2026 AFF by 12% to $165 million (mid-point) from $147 million (mid-point), with no change to commodity price assumptions. This is expected to increase FAFF by 9% from $77 million (mid-point) to $84 million (mid-point), equating to a FAFF yield(4) of 20% (mid-point). The Company’s leverage metrics are projected to remain strong with net debt to Q4 2026 EBITDA(4) now forecasted to be 1.25x (mid-point).
Further information related to the Acquisition and revised pro forma guidance is outlined in the Company’s August 5, 2026 Press Release (Press Release – August 5, 2026).
Second Quarter 2026 Financial & Operations Overview:
InPlay completed an active capital program during the second quarter, investing $16.3 million to complete and bring on production three (3.0 net) Pembina Cardium wells drilled in the first quarter of 2026, and to drill and complete three (3.0 net) additional Pembina Cardium wells. Operational execution remained strong during the quarter, with drilling and completion operations under budget. The three most recent wells were drilled approximately 40 days ahead of schedule, as field access occurred earlier than typically anticipated following spring break-up, which was beneficial as wet weather in the second half of June and into mid-July caused delays to the start of our H2 2026 drilling program.
Quarterly production averaged 18,663 boe/d(1) (62% light crude oil and NGLs), representing a 2% increase from the first quarter of 2026. Quarterly crude oil production averaged 9,382 bbl/d, a 6% increase from the first quarter of 2026. Oil production remained strong throughout the quarter and exceeded internal forecasts.
The second quarter was our largest to date for turnaround activity and resulted in slightly increased operating costs compared to the first quarter of 2026, as well as the reactivation of shut-in, low-rate wells that went down in a lower commodity environment and are economic to return to production in the strong commodity price environment.
InPlay generated record quarterly AFF of $44.7 million ($1.61 per basic share), representing a 48% increase from the first quarter of 2026. These results were achieved despite realizing $14.1 million in hedging losses, primarily reflecting the significant increase in WTI during the quarter relative to the hedges required by our first-lien lenders to facilitate the 2025 acquisition. The Company expects minimal hedge losses in the future at our current commodity price forecast as significantly less crude oil volumes are hedged going forward and due to our strong natural gas hedges. This is reflected in the mark-to-market value of the Company’s hedges, which was an asset of $6.9 million at June 30, 2026 compared to a liability of $30.5 million at March 31, 2026. Details of the Company’s current hedges are provided in the “Hedging Summary” section of the Reader Advisories.
During the quarter, InPlay paid dividends of $7.6 million to shareholders, representing a 7.2% yield relative to our current share price. Since November 2022, InPlay has distributed $82 million ($4.14/share) in dividends, including dividends declared to date in the third quarter.
Net income of $22.9 million ($0.82 per basic share; $0.78 per diluted share), was realized in the second quarter of 2026 which includes a $37 million unrealized mark-to-market gain on the Company’s hedge portfolio.
Financial and Operating Results:
On behalf of our employees, management team and Board of Directors, we thank our shareholders for their continued support. With a high-quality asset base, a strengthened outlook and the recently announced acquisition, InPlay is well positioned to continue generating sustainable free cash flow and long-term shareholder value.
For further information please contact: Doug Bartole, President and Chief Executive Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0632; Kevin Leonard, Vice President Corporate & Business Development, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0635
Reader Advisories
Hedging Summary
Commodity Hedges
Foreign Exchange Hedges
Currency
USD refers to United States Dollars, NIS or ILS refers to New Israeli Shekels and CAD refers to Canadian Dollars.
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Throughout this document and other materials disclosed by the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to, or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance. Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and other financial measures provides useful information to shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the Company’s ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay’s business performance against prior periods on a comparable basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the terms “free adjusted funds flow”, “operating income”, “operating netback per boe”, “operating income profit margin” and “Net Debt to EBITDA”. Management believes these measures and ratios are helpful supplementary measures of financial and operating performance and provide users with similar, but potentially not comparable, information that is commonly used by other oil and natural gas companies. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than “profit before taxes”, “profit and comprehensive income”, “adjusted funds flow”, “capital expenditures”, “net debt” or assets and liabilities as determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of the Company’s performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow / FAFF Yield
Management considers FAFF and FAFF Yield as important measures to identify the Company’s ability to improve its financial condition through debt repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. FAFF should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF less exploration and development capital expenditures and property dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate acquisitions, repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures or potentially return of capital to shareholders. Free adjusted funds flow yield is calculated by the Company as free adjusted funds flow divided by the market capitalization of the Company. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast FAFF and FAFF yield.
Operating Income/Operating Netback per boe/Operating Income Profit Margin
InPlay uses “operating income”, “operating netback per boe” and “operating income profit margin” as key performance indicators. Operating income is calculated by the Company as oil and natural gas sales less royalties, operating expenses and transportation expenses and is a measure of the profitability of operations before administrative, share-based compensation, financing and other non-cash items. Management considers operating income an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability. Operating income should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than net income as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Operating netback per boe is calculated by the Company as operating income divided by average production for the respective period. Management considers operating netback per boe an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability per unit of production. Operating income profit margin is calculated by the Company as operating income as a percentage of oil and natural gas sales. Management considers operating income profit margin an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates how efficiently the Company generates field level profits from its sales revenue. Refer below for a calculation of operating income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit margin. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast operating income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit margin.
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as it is a key metric to identify the Company’s ability to fund financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations. EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve months preceding the net debt date is used in the calculation. This measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the Company’s Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast Net Debt to EBITDA.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an important measure of InPlay’s ability to generate the funds necessary to finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. All references to adjusted funds flow throughout this document are calculated as funds flow adjusting for foreign exchange loss, transaction and integration costs and decommissioning expenditures. Foreign exchange loss is primarily an unrealized movement on the Company’s NIS denominated Bonds due to movements in the CAD/NIS exchange rate. In addition, InPlay has effectively mitigated its exposure to fluctuations in the CAD to NIS exchange rate on the NIS denominated Bond by entering into NIS/CAD foreign exchange hedges with notional amounts and terms that align with the future cash outflow requirements of the Bonds. Therefore, at the end of the life of the Bonds, the FX impact on the Company will be insignificant. Transaction and integration costs are non-recurring costs for the purposes of an acquisition, making the exclusion of these items relevant in Management’s view to the reader in the evaluation of InPlay’s operating performance. Decommissioning expenditures are adjusted from funds flow as they are incurred on a discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on previous operating assets. The Company also presents adjusted funds flow per share whereby per share amounts are calculated using weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the calculation of profit per common share.
Net Debt
Net debt is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The Company closely monitors its capital structure with the goal of maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The Company monitors net debt as part of its capital structure. The Company uses net debt (Long-term debt (Bond at inception value) plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less accounts receivables and accrued receivables, restricted cash, cash and cash equivalents, prepaid expenses and deposits and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding debt. Management considers net debt an important measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.
Supplementary Measures
“Average realized crude oil price” is comprised of crude oil commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s crude oil volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized NGL price” is comprised of NGL commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s NGL volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized natural gas price” is comprised of natural gas commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s natural gas volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized commodity price” is comprised of commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average basic share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the basic weighted average common shares.
“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average diluted share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the diluted weighted average common shares.
“Adjusted funds flow per boe” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by total production.
Forward-Looking Information and Statements
This document contains certain forward-looking information and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “expect”, “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “should”, “believe”, “plans”, “intends”, “forecast” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this document contains forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the following: the Company’s business strategy, milestones and objectives; the anticipated funding and timing of the Acquisition, including the use of the Company’s credit facility and anticipated borrowing capacity; the anticipated timing of the closing of the Acquisition; the anticipated benefits of the Acquisition, including the impact of the Acquisition on the Company’s operations, inventory and development opportunities; financial results and shareholder returns; anticipated production from the acquired assets associated with the Acquisition; anticipated production following completion of the Acquisition; anticipated increases in light oil production and product mix; expected accretion to AFF per share; FAFF per share, production per share and funds flow netback metrics; anticipated FAFF and FAFF yield; anticipated dividends and dividend yield; anticipated benefits of the Company’s NCIB and shareholder return strategy; anticipated operating netbacks, operating income and FAFF generated by the acquired assets associated with the Acquisition; anticipated operating, infrastructure, administrative and other synergies associated with the Acquisition, including anticipated annual cost savings and the expectation that no additions to corporate office personnel will be required; anticipated Belly River production, development opportunities and drilling inventory associated with the acquired assets, including identified drilling locations and expected payout periods; the satisfaction or waiver of the closing conditions to the Acquisition; anticipated future liquidity, financial flexibility, borrowing capacity and financial capacity; anticipated net debt and Net Debt to EBITDA ratios; future development, exploration, acquisition and infrastructure activities and related capital expenditures; the Company’s planned 2026 capital program; the amount and timing of capital projects; the number of wells expected to be drilled and completed; the Company’s asset retirement and decommissioning activities; the Company’s 2026 guidance; the Company’s anticipated 2026 annual average production and product mix; future oil, natural gas and NGL prices; future results from operations and operating metrics, including AFF, FAFF, operating income, operating netbacks, operating income profit margins and Net Debt to EBITDA; future costs, expenses and royalty rates; future interest costs; the exchange rates between USD and CAD and between NIS and CAD; methods of funding the Company’s capital program; future debt levels, leverage ratios, dividends, share repurchase and other shareholder return initiatives; and other similar statements.
The internal projections, expectations, or beliefs underlying the 2026 capital budget and associated guidance are subject to change in light of, among other factors, changes to U.S. economic, regulatory and/or trade policies (including tariffs), the impact of world events including the Russia/Ukraine conflict and wars in the Middle East, ongoing results, prevailing economic circumstances, volatile commodity prices, and changes in industry conditions and regulations. InPlay’s 2026 financial outlook and guidance provides shareholders with relevant information on management’s expectations for results of operations, excluding any potential acquisitions or dispositions (other than the Acquisition), for such time periods based upon the key assumptions outlined herein. Readers are cautioned that events or circumstances could cause capital plans and associated results to differ materially from those predicted and InPlay’s guidance for 2026 may not be appropriate for other purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on same.
Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of InPlay which have been used to develop such statements and information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the current U.S. economic, regulatory and/or trade policies; the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the anticipated tax treatment of the monthly base dividend; that (i) the tariffs that are currently in effect on goods exported from or imported into Canada continue in effect for an extended period of time, the tariffs that have been threatened are implemented, that tariffs that are currently suspended are reactivated, the rate or scope of tariffs are increased, or new tariffs are imposed, including on oil and natural gas, (ii) the U.S. and/or Canada imposes any other form of tax, restriction or prohibition on the import or export of products from one country to the other, including on oil and natural gas, and (iii) the tariffs imposed or threatened to be imposed by the U.S. on other countries and retaliatory tariffs imposed or threatened to be imposed by other countries on the U.S., will trigger a broader global trade war which could have a material adverse effect on the Canadian, U.S. and global economies, and by extension the Canadian oil and natural gas industry and the Company, including by decreasing demand for (and the price of) oil and natural gas, disrupting supply chains, increasing costs, causing volatility in global financial markets, and limiting access to financing; the duration and impact of tariffs that are currently in effect on goods exported from or imported into Canada, and that other than the tariffs that are currently in effect, neither the U.S. nor Canada (i) increases the rate or scope of such tariffs, reenacts tariffs that are currently suspended, or imposes new tariffs, on the import of goods from one country to the other, including on oil and natural gas, and/or (ii) imposes any other form of tax, restriction or prohibition on the import or export of products from one country to the other, including on oil and natural gas; changes in political and economic conditions, including risks associated with tariffs, export taxes, export restrictions or other trade actions; impacts of any tariffs imposed on Canadian exports into the United States by the Trump administration and any retaliatory steps taken by the Canadian federal government; that InPlay’s results and operations could be adversely affected by economic or geopolitical developments, including protectionist trade policies such as tariffs, or other events; conditions in international markets, including social and political conditions, civil unrest, terrorist activity, governmental changes, restrictions on the ability to transfer capital across borders, tariffs and other protectionist measures; field production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and the ability of InPlay to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; that various conditions to a shareholder return strategy can be satisfied; the ongoing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and wars in the Middle East; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are cautioned that the Company’s future dividend payments to shareholders of the Company, if any, and the level thereof will be subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The Company’s dividend policy and funds available for the payment of dividends, if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among other things, levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial requirements for the Company’s operations and execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in commodity prices and working capital, the timing and amount of capital expenditures, credit facility availability and limitations on distributions existing thereunder, and other factors beyond the Company’s control. Further, the ability of the Company to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws, including satisfaction of solvency tests under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta), and satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions contained in the agreements governing the Company’s outstanding indebtedness. Further, the actual amount, the declaration date, the record date and the payment date of any dividend are subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. There can be no assurance that InPlay will pay dividends in the future.
The forward-looking information and statements included herein are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information or statements including, without limitation: changes in industry regulations and legislation (including, but not limited to, tax laws, royalties, and environmental regulations); that (i) the tariffs that are currently in effect on goods exported from or imported into Canada continue in effect for an extended period of time, the tariffs that have been threatened are implemented, that tariffs that are currently suspended are reactivated, the rate or scope of tariffs are increased, or new tariffs are imposed, including on oil and natural gas, (ii) the U.S. and/or Canada imposes any other form of tax, restriction or prohibition on the import or export of products from one country to the other, including on oil and natural gas, and (iii) the tariffs imposed or threatened to be imposed by the U.S. on other countries and retaliatory tariffs imposed or threatened to be imposed by other countries on the U.S., will trigger a broader global trade war which could have a material adverse effect on the Canadian, U.S. and global economies, and by extension the Canadian oil and natural gas industry and the Company, including by decreasing demand for (and the price of) oil and natural gas, disrupting supply chains, increasing costs, causing volatility in global financial markets, and limiting access to financing; the continuing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; potential changes to U.S. economic, regulatory and/or trade policies as a result of a change in government; inflation and the risk of a global recession; changes in our planned capital program; changes in our approach to shareholder returns; changes in commodity prices and other assumptions outlined herein; the risk that dividend payments may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the potential for variation in the quality of the reservoirs in which InPlay operates; changes in the demand for or supply of InPlay’s products; unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans or strategies of InPlay or by third party operators of InPlay’s properties; changes in InPlay’s credit structure, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of InPlay’s light crude oil and natural gas reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time-to-time in InPlay’s continuous disclosure documents filed on SEDAR+ including InPlay’s Annual Information Form dated March 30, 2026 and InPlay’s annual management’s discussion & analysis for the year ended December 31, 2025.
This document contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, “FOFI“) about InPlay’s financial and leverage targets and objectives, potential dividends, and beliefs underlying our 2026 capital budget, anticipated 2026 production and associated guidance, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. The actual results of operations of InPlay and the resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set forth in this document and such variation may be material. InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management’s reasonable estimates and judgments. However, because this information is subjective and subject to numerous risks, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. Except as required by applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes no obligation to update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this document was made as of the date of this document and was provided for the purpose of providing further information about InPlay’s anticipated future business operations and strategy. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this document should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
The forward-looking statements and FOFI contained in this document speak only as of the date hereof and InPlay does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward-looking statements or FOFI, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Risk Factors to FLI
Risk factors that could materially impact successful execution and actual results of the Company’s 2026 capital program and associated guidance and estimates include:
risks related to an international trade war, including the risk that the U.S. government imposes additional tariffs on Canadian goods, including crude oil and natural gas, and that such tariffs (and/or the Canadian government’s response to such tariffs) adversely affect the demand and/or market price for the Company’s products and/or otherwise adversely affects the Company;
volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
the Company’s ability to secure financing for the 2026 capital program and longer-term capital plans sourced from AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity issuance, infrastructure financing or some combination thereof; and
those additional risk factors set forth in the Company’s MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on SEDAR+.
Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to FLI
The key budget and underlying material assumptions used by the Company in the development of its 2026 guidance are as follows:
Test Results and Initial Production Rates
Any references in this press release to initial production (“IP”) rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will continue production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. Test results and IP rates disclosed herein, particularly those short in duration, may not necessarily be indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out and thus certain of the test results provided herein should be considered to be preliminary until such analysis or interpretation has been completed. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production of the Company.
Production Breakdown by Product Type:
Disclosure of production on a per boe basis in this document consists of the constituent product types as defined in National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101“) and their respective quantities disclosed in the table below:
References to crude oil, light oil, NGLs or natural gas production in this press release refer to the light and medium crude oil, natural gas liquids and conventional natural gas product types, respectively, as defined in NI 51-101.
BOE Equivalent
Barrel of oil equivalents or BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different than the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a 6:1 conversion basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Dividends
InPlay’s future shareholder distributions, including but not limited to the payment of dividends, if any, and the level thereof is uncertain. Any decision to pay dividends on InPlay’s shares (including the actual amount, the declaration date, the record date and the payment date in connection therewith and any special dividends) will be subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors and may depend on a variety of factors, including, without limitation, InPlay’s business performance, financial condition, financial requirements, growth plans, expected capital requirements and other conditions existing at such future time including, without limitation, contractual restrictions and satisfaction of the solvency tests imposed on InPlay under applicable corporate law. Further, the actual amount, the declaration date, the record date and the payment date of any dividend are subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors. There can be no assurance that InPlay will pay dividends in the future.
