Nielsen is buying DoubleVerify for $13.60 a share in cash — a 30% premium, the press release says. That premium is real. It’s also about half of what DoubleVerify’s stock fetched the day it went public. Both things are true at once, and the gap between them is the most instructive part of this deal.
Here’s what happened. On Wednesday, Nielsen — itself taken private by a private equity consortium a few years back — agreed to acquire DoubleVerify (NYSE: DV) in an all-cash deal worth roughly $2.15 billion in enterprise value. Shareholders get $13.60 per share, a 30% premium to the stock’s 60-trading-day average through August 5. The deal should close by the first quarter of 2027, after which DoubleVerify delists from the NYSE, becomes a private company under Nielsen, and keeps its name. Providence Equity, which owns about 12%, has agreed to vote in favor.
DoubleVerify isn’t a broken company — and that’s the point. It’s the leading independent platform for ad verification: the plumbing that confirms a digital ad impression was actually seen by a real person, in a brand-safe place, free of fraud. It’s accredited, embedded in the workflows of the world’s biggest advertisers, and it works — 2025 revenue landed around $748 million, up roughly 14%, with real profit and strong free cash flow. A healthy, growing, cash-generative business.
So why is it being bought at $13.60?
Because the market stopped paying up for it. DoubleVerify went public in April 2021 at $27 a share and ran to nearly $47 within months, briefly worth more than $5 billion. Then ad-tech multiples collapsed. Even as the company kept growing revenue and profit year after year, the stock got cut in half, then cut again, bottoming below $8 last year. The business went up and to the right; the multiple went down and to the left. By this week the whole company was worth under $2 billion — less than half its peak value, despite being bigger and more profitable than it was then.
That’s the lesson for anyone hunting the small end of the market. A 30% premium sounds generous until you notice it’s measured off a badly depressed base. IPO buyers are being cashed out at roughly half their money; anyone who chased the 2021 hype is down far more. The premium is genuine against last month’s price — and a permanent loss against the promise the stock once carried.
It also explains the take-private wave we’ve watched all week. When public markets abandon a profitable company and refuse to re-rate it no matter how well it executes, someone with a longer horizon eventually buys the cash flows on the cheap. That’s exactly what Nielsen is doing — and it’s the same logic behind deal after deal in 2026: good small and mid-cap businesses quietly pulled off the public market at prices that reflect the market’s indifference, not the company’s quality.
For DoubleVerify shareholders, it’s a bittersweet exit — a premium today that locks in yesterday’s de-rating. For everyone else, it’s a map. The hunting ground right now is full of profitable, overlooked small-caps trading far below what they’re worth to a patient owner. And the public market keeps losing them, one deal at a time.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 7, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Execution Becomes the Investment Story EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – That Didn’t Take Long Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Multiple Value Drivers Emerging Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Q2 2026 Reported With Three Late-Stage Trials Advancing With A Stronger Balance Sheet Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Update for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Digital Momentum Accelerates
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.95 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Execution Becomes the Investment Story Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results fell short of expectations, reflecting both cyclical and structural pressures. Revenue declined 9.2% year over year, as retransmission blackouts with Comcast and DirecTV reduced distribution revenue by approximately $26.7 million, while continued weakness in national advertising and audience measurement challenges weighed on the Networks business.
Transformation efforts are accelerating and should improve earnings power over time. Management now expects to achieve approximately $100 million in annualized run-rate cost savings by year-end as part of its broader plan to deliver $125–150 million of incremental enterprise EBITDA by 2028 through AI, automation, and operational efficiencies.
EuroDry (EDRY/$29.82 | Price Target: $47) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q 2026 Financial Results. EuroDry Ltd. reported strong 2Q 2026 financial performance compared to the prior year period, driven primarily by a favorable dry bulk market and higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Total net revenues increased 57% year-over-year to $17.7 million, while average time charter equivalent rates more than doubled to $20,398 per day compared with $10,428 per day during the prior year period. Adjusted net income attributable to controlling shareholders amounted to $6.9 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $3.0 million, or $(1.10) per diluted share, in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $11.7 million compared to $1.9 million during the prior year period, reflecting strong operating leverage as TCE rates increased. We had projected 2Q revenue and adj. EBITDA of $17.4 million and $9.3 million, respectively.
Strong Operational Quarter. Fleet utilization improved to 100.0% compared to 99.3% during the prior year period, with commercial utilization at 100%, reflecting minimal downtime and effective charter execution. Vessel operating expenses declined modestly to $6,608 per day compared to $6,785 per day during the prior year period, while total operating expenses decreased to $7,444 per day compared to $7,539 during the second quarter of 2025.
Information Services Group (III/$5 | Price Target: $6.5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Quarter. ISG had a strong second quarter with both revenue and adjusted EBITDA above expectations. The second quarter marks the seventh quarter in a row that adjusted EBITDA has grown by double digits. Expanding margins reflect the continued evolution of ISG’s business toward higher-value advisory work, growth in recurring revenues, and increasing leverage from AI-enabled delivery, in our view.
AI Opportunity. AI is a tailwind for ISG. ISG is taking advantage of the need for AI, reshaping the business as an AI-centered technology research and advisory firm to drive stronger client demand and improve how services are delivered. Nearly half of ISG’s clients generated AI-related revenue during the quarter. Growth was broad-based across industries, led by consumer, health sciences, and manufacturing.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$57.41 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 That Didn’t Take Long Rating: OUTPERFORM
From Opportunity to Reality. Less than 48 hours after speaking of these potential opportunities (among a bunch of other opportunities), Kratos has been awarded a U.S. Army contract related to the Javelin Missile System, and Kratos partner Boeing announced it has been awarded a funding contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs that incorporate Kratos turbojet engines.
JDAM. The Air Force awarded Boeing a $75 million production contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs. The long-range variant adds a Kratos TDI-J85 turbojet providing 200 pounds of thrust to enable jets to attack from a much safer distance. The 2027 National Defense Authorization Act includes about $277 million for 1,150 upgraded JDAM guidance tail kits with M-Code GPS for the legacy munitions. Industry experts note the new version will cost far less than more exquisite stand-off munitions, so they should be considered as an affordable mass capability, playing right into Kratos’ key strengths, in our opinion.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.56 | Price Target: $2.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Multiple Value Drivers Emerging Rating: OUTPERFORM
Early results are encouraging. Kuya Silver reported encouraging preliminary sampling results from historic stockpiles and tailings at its Silver Kings Project in Northern Ontario, suggesting that previously mined above-ground materials may contain significant recoverable silver and cobalt. The strongest results came from the Kerr Lake Mill crushed stockpile, which returned a master composite grade of 168 g/t silver and 0.365% cobalt (276 g/t silver equivalent), while Frontier tailings returned 75 g/t silver and 0.037% cobalt. These findings support the company’s view that modern processing technologies could unlock value from legacy mining waste.
The program targeted multiple historic sites. The sampling program evaluated seven historic sites, including tailings facilities, blast rock stockpiles, and crushed material left by previous operators. These represent attractive reprocessing targets because historical mining methods were less efficient and often left behind economically valuable mineralization. While the results are preliminary and not representative of entire stockpiles, they demonstrate the potential for recovering silver, cobalt, and, in some cases, copper using modern sorting and processing techniques.
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.24 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Q2 2026 Reported With Three Late-Stage Trials Advancing With A Stronger Balance Sheet Rating: OUTPERFORM
Ocugen Raised Cash and Prepared To Begin Phase 3. Ocugen reported a 2Q26 loss of $24.9 million, or $(0.07) per share. The Operating Loss of $16.4 million was in line with our estimate, while a Loss on Extinguishment of Debt contributed $2.4 million to the Net Loss. Importantly, the company is planning to start the Phase 3 trial for OCU410 in GA-dAMD during 3Q, consistent with our expectations. In May 2026, the company issued Convertible Notes that raised approximately $112.5 million, ending the quarter with $100.4 million in cash.
Convertible Notes Balance Cash Needs With Dilution. In May 2026, the company issued $130.0 million in 6.75% Convertible Notes, adding net cash of approximately $112.5 million. About $32.7 million of the proceeds were used to repay a 12.25% interest loan. The remaining proceeds brought cash on hand to $100.4 million. This should provide sufficient cash to fund its three products through clinical trials, regulatory approval, and product launches through FY2028.
Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF/$0.03 | Price Target: $0.15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Update for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Making Significant Progress. Resolution Minerals has advanced the Horse Heaven Project as an integrated U.S. critical minerals platform encompassing antimony, tungsten, and gold. Antimony Ridge received FAST-41 Transparency Coverage, with Golden Gate receiving the same status after quarter-end, while Resolution was also admitted to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base Consortium. Together, these developments could accelerate permitting, enhance access to U.S. government and strategic funding channels, and reinforce the projects’ importance as a domestic critical-mineral supply source. Resolution continues to advance drilling, metallurgy, and permitting activities that support its long-term development strategy.
Project Highlights. Antimony Ridge continues to demonstrate excellent scale and grade, with more than 100 high-grade antimony veins identified and metallurgical testing producing a 99.38% antimony trioxide product. At Golden Gate, the company advanced a 13,700-meter drill program to support a maiden mineral resource estimate, while metallurgical testing returned strong gold recoveries that further de-risk future development. Post quarter-end, approximately half of the planned drilling program has been completed
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$6.33 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Digital Momentum Accelerates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 exceeded expectations. Revenue of $115.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million were within management’s guidance, while Digital Advertising accelerated to 11% year-over-year growth,driven by continued strength in programmatic advertising, owned-and-operated digital properties, and Media Partnerships.
Digital transformation gaining traction. Townsquare’s Digital First strategy continues to differentiate the company from traditional radio peers. During the first half of 2026, digital businesses generated 57% of total revenue and 59% of total segment profit, while the Media Partnerships platform expanded to 16 partners, creating a scalable, capital-light growth opportunity beyond the company’s owned markets.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 6, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q26 Results First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF)/OUTPERFORM – Federal Funding for Infrastructure Planning Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – New Awards Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q26 Operating Results InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Acquisition Enhances Outlook NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q26 Operating Results; Deleveraging Transaction ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Implementing the Asset Light Strategy
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$31.23 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q26 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. CoreCivic’s 2Q26 financial results exceeded management expectations, driven by lower operating costs and slightly higher populations from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Recent contracts at 4 facilities added $80.1 million to revenue and $20.1 million to operating income in the quarter. These facilities continue to be in various stages of activation.
2Q26 Results. Revenue increased 27.3% y-o-y to $684.9 million and was above our $618 million projection. Adjusted EBITDA was $109.4 million, compared to $103.3 million in 2Q25 and our $108.9 million estimate. Adjusted net income was $37.7 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, in 2Q26, compared with $39.7 million and $0.36, respectively, last year. We would note 2Q25 EPS benefited from $11.6 million, or $0.08 per share, of Employee Retention Credits, along with interest thereon, available under the CARES Act. Excluding the CARES Act benefit, 2Q26 adjusted EPS would have reflected more pronounced y-o-y growth.
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$1.18 | Price Target: $2) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Federal Funding for Infrastructure Planning Rating: OUTPERFORM
Federal Funding for Begin-Lamarche. First Phosphate Corp. has finalized agreements with the Government of Canada to receive C$4.84 million in non-repayable funding through Natural Resources Canada’s First and Last Mile Fund to support infrastructure planning for its Bégin-Lamarche phosphate deposit in Québec. The new funding builds on the C$16.7 million previously awarded by NRCan in March 2026, demonstrating continued federal support for advancing the strategic critical minerals project.
Investments in Infrastructure Planning. The funding will support two key initiatives: 1) approximately C$3.07 million for studies and design of a 161-kV power transmission line and substations, and 2) approximately C$1.77 million for planning a new mine access road and evaluating upgrades to bypass roads to support transportation between Begin-Lamarche and regional infrastructure, including rail links and the Port of Saguenay. Both projects include technical, environmental, and economic studies, engineering design, and consultation with indigenous communities and the public.
Graham (GHM/$104.47) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 New Awards Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Awards. Graham Corporation was awarded two contracts for a combined value of over $43 million. These awards reflect the continued demand the Company is seeing across its defense platforms. The revenue for the contracts will be reflected in the Company’s first and second fiscal year 2027 backlog.
MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight Torpedo. The first award is a follow-on fourth option year supporting the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight Torpedo program, awarded in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended June 30, 2026. The Company will continue to provide alternators and regulators under this option year.
Information Services Group (III/$4.26 | Price Target: $6.5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q26 Operating Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Information Services Group had a very strong second quarter, generating the highest quarterly revenue since 2023. Growth in the quarter was led by Europe, up 10%, and the Americas, up 7%, while recurring revenues reached a new quarterly high of $30 million, driven by the Company’s AI-centered research and governance services.
2Q26 Results. Reported revenues for the second quarter were $65.5 million, up 6.4% from $61.6 million in the prior year, and above our $63 million projection. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $9.4 million, up 13% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.3%, compared with 13.5% in the prior year’s second quarter. We were at $8.45 million and 13.4%, respectively. ISG reported adjusted net income for 2Q26 of $5.0 million, or $0.10 per share, compared with adjusted net income of $4.1 million, or $0.08 per share, in 2Q25. We had projected $4.4 million and $0.09/sh.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$10.45 | Price Target: $22) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Strategic Acquisition Enhances Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Accretive Strategic Acquisition. InPlay Oil announced the acquisition of a private oil and gas producer for C$54.25 million, adding approximately 1,400 boe/d of oil-weighted production and increasing company-wide production to more than 20,100 boe/d. The acquired assets are contiguous with InPlay’s existing operations, enabling approximately C$2.5 million of annual cost synergies, while adding 50 drilling locations and immediately enhancing adjusted funds flow and free adjusted funds flow on a per-share basis. The transaction is expected to close by the end of August, subject to customary closing conditions. Post-close, InPlay expects to have more than 450 total drilling locations, including approximately 230 Tier-1 locations.
Corporate Guidance. InPlay continues to execute strongly, with recent Cardium wells materially outperforming expectations and being drilled ahead of schedule, allowing InPlay to expand its 2026 drilling program to 17 net wells on a pro forma basis. Reflecting stronger operational performance and the acquisition, management increased 2026 guidance, including adjusted funds flow (AFF) to C$161 million to C$169 million, free adjusted funds flow (FAFF) to C$79 million to C$89 million, and FAFF yield to 19% to 21%, despite higher capital spending of C$80 million to C$82 million.
NN (NNBR/$3.9 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q26 Operating Results; Deleveraging Transaction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. NN delivered strong financial performance in 2Q26 with record results in many areas. The Company’s 5-pillar growth program is delivering results. New sales are higher margin, attached to higher-growth-rate end markets, and mostly immediate 2026 startup. The second half of 2026 is expected to reflect continued momentum and strong financial performance.
2Q26 Results. Net sales for 2Q26 were $128.7 million, an increase of 19.3% compared to net sales of $107.9 million for the same period in 2025. We were at $116 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $17.9 million, an increase of 36.1% compared to adjusted EBITDA of $13.2 million for 2Q25, primarily driven by improved sales mix and operating performance. We had projected $15 million. Adjusted net income was $5.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted common share, an increase of $4.7 million, or $0.09 per diluted common share, compared to adjusted net income of $0.7 million, or $0.02 per diluted common share, in 2Q25. We were at $2.2 million and $0.04, respectively.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$1.78 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Implementing the Asset Light Strategy Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. The ONE Group Hospitality’s second quarter 2026 results underscore the momentum the Company is building across the portfolio, driven by the continued strength of the Company’s Vibe Dining brands. Consolidated comparable sales were positive, with positive transaction growth across all segments. Quarterly margin performance was strong, with the consolidated margin expanding 110 basis points to 16.4%.
2Q26 Results. ONE Group reported 2Q26 revenue of $200.5 million, down 3.3% from $207.4 million for the same quarter last year. The decrease was primarily attributable to the closed grill concept restaurants, partially offset by an increase in comparable restaurant sales and sales from new restaurants opened since July 2025. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to ONE Group was $21.1 million in 2Q26 compared to $23.4 million in 2Q25, a decrease of 9.7%, primarily due to increased investment in marketing during the quarter and an increase in general and administrative expenses, excluding stock-based compensation.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Momentum Continues Building CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Opening Another Previously Idle Facility FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates Based on Higher Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 2Q26 Top Line Growth; Momentum Continues to Build Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Branded Products Powers Earnings Growth
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$3.89 | Price Target: $7) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Momentum Continues Building Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. CVG delivered year-over-year revenue growth across all three segments, reflecting ongoing efforts to reduce end-market concentration in cyclical North American Class 8 truck exposure through geographic and end-market diversification. While there are still macroeconomic uncertainties to monitor, CVG is hitting its stride as new business wins are ramping coincidentally with a recovery in key end markets.
2Q26 Results. CVG reported 2Q26 revenue of $195.2 million, up from $172 million in the year-ago period, a 13.5% increase, driven by increased customer demand in international markets and the ramp of previously awarded new business wins across all three operating segments. We were at $173 million. Gross margin improved both y-o-y and sequentially to 12.9%. One-time items impacted the reported bottom line. On an adjusted basis, CVG reported a net loss of $0.13/sh, up from a loss of $0.09/sh last year, reflecting increased incentive comp expense in 2Q26 over 2Q25.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$30.15 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Opening Another Previously Idle Facility Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. CoreCivic has been awarded a new contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to utilize the Company’s 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility located in Appleton, Minnesota, a facility that has been idle since 2010. Awards seem to be picking up once again, especially for previously idle facilities, suggesting to us that ICE is moving back to the tried-and-true detention operating model, with less focus on alternative detention models.
Impact. The new contract commences on August 11, 2026, for a term of five years. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Taking into account start-up activities and the phased commencement of intake operations, we currently expect an immaterial impact to earnings for the remainder of 2026. Once the facility is fully activated, management expects this facility to generate total annual revenue of approximately $75 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2027.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.54 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. RAIL generated a 2Q FY26 adjusted net loss to common stockholders of $821.0 thousand, or $(0.02) per share, compared to adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.11 per share, during the prior year period. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue amounted to 5.5% compared to 15.0% in 2Q FY 2025. Revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $113.1 million and 927, compared to $118.6 million and 939 during the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $1.2 million compared to $9.3 million in 2Q FY 2025.
Updated FY 2026 Guidance. Management updated its FY 2026 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 3,500 to 3,900, revenue in the range of $410 to $460 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $36 to $44 million. Prior guidance projected railcar deliveries in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $41 to $50 million.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$10.65 | Price Target: $20) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Updating Estimates Based on Higher Second Quarter Crude Oil Prices Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. We have increased our Q2 FY2026 revenue, adjusted funds flow (AFF), and AFF per share estimates to C$122.0 million, C$49.6 million, and C$1.77, respectively, from C$104.0 million, C$36.2 million, and C$1.29. While we have lowered our production estimate to 18,663 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from 18,875 boe/d due to Q2 weather impacts, the increases in our estimates are largely due to higher crude oil prices. For FY 2026, we now project revenue, AFF, and AFF per share of C$425.6 million, C$162.5 million, and C$5.80, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of C$406.2 million, C$148.4 million, and C$5.29. Our FY 2026 average production forecast of 18,900 boe/d is unchanged.
Outlook. InPlay has approximately 190 Tier 1 drilling locations that provide an estimated 10 to 15 years of high-return inventory. The company’s low-decline asset base supports sustainable free cash flow generation while limiting capital requirements needed to maintain production. Conservative leverage provides capacity for future acquisitions while maintaining shareholder returns through the dividend.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$51.87 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Strong 2Q26 Top Line Growth; Momentum Continues to Build Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Kratos’ second quarter results reflect strong execution by the Company, in our view. The Company’s strategy, including making internally funded investments to be first-to-market with relevant hardware and software that is engineered up front for affordable mass production at scale and is aligned with the Department of War’s priorities, continues to resonate, in our view.
2Q26 Results. Revenues for the second quarter were $458.8 million, above management’s guide of $400 million-$410 million. We were at $405 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $38.2 million, above the high end of the estimated range of $30 million-$35 million, reflecting the increased revenue and revenue mix. We had forecast $33 million. GAAP net income for 2Q26 was $4.4 million, and GAAP EPS was $0.02, compared to $2.9 million and $0.02, respectively, for 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.21 for 2Q26, compared to $0.11 for 2Q25.
Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$13.95 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | Branded Products Powers Earnings Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
An impressive earnings beat. Q2 revenue increased 2.6% to $147.8 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 26.6% to $7.7 million and adjusted EPS more than doubled to $0.21. The results beat our estimates of $143.8 million, $6.5 million, and $0.08 per share, respectively.
Branded Products powers the recovery. Revenue advanced 6.2%, and segment EBITDA increased 24.9% to $11.2 million, supported by a favorable customer mix, improved sourcing, and growing volumes from existing customers. Management indicated that the segment has favorable operating momentum into the second half.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – RAIL Provides Updated Outlook; Webinar at 11:00 AM ET V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Second Quarter Results
FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.24 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 RAIL Provides Updated Outlook; Webinar at 11:00 AM ET Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. RAIL generated a 2Q FY26 adjusted net loss to common stockholders of $821.0 thousand, or $(0.02) per share, compared to adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.11 per share, during the prior year period. We had projected net income of $350 thousand or $0.01 per share. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue amounted to 5.5% compared to 15.0% in 2Q FY 2025. Revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $113.1 million and 927, compared to $118.6 million and 939 during the prior year period. We had forecast revenue of $112.3 million and deliveries of 923. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $1.2 million compared to $9.3 million in 2Q FY 2025 and our estimate of $5.7 million. We had projected higher gross margin.
Updated FY 2026 Guidance. Management updated its FY 2026 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 3,500 to 3,900, revenue in the range of $410 to $460 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $36 to $44 million. Prior guidance projected railcar deliveries in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $41 to $50 million. Our current estimates are at the low end of prior guidance. We will update our estimates following today’s investor call.
V2X (VVX/$86.38 | Price Target: $92) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Solid Second Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. V2X’s reported strong second quarter performance reflecting consistent strategic execution, robust demand for the Company’s differentiated capabilities, and continued alignment to national security priorities. The Company’s recent awards across modernization, global training, aerospace, and mission readiness reinforce the value of V2X’s end-to-end solutions, ability to support global no-fail missions, and pursuit of profitable growth opportunities, in our view.
2Q26 Results. V2X reported revenue of $1.26 billion, up $178.3 million year-over-year, representing a 16.5% increase. We were at $1.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $89.8 million, with a margin of 7.1%, representing an increase of 9% from the prior year. We had forecast $87 million and a 7.3% margin. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.64, up from $1.33 last year. We were at $1.44.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 3, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Execution Drives Higher 2026 Outlook Perfect (PERF)/MARKET PERFORM – Merger Agreement Signed; Share Performance Now Tied to Closing
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$4.22 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Operating Environment. While parts of the operating business are performing well, such as EPOS and back-to-school, other segments remain challenged, especially the International segment both economically and geopolitically, and Brazil as we await elections there. Nonetheless, we remain confident in management’s ability to navigate the environment and emerge even stronger with increased market share.
Capital. At quarter’s end, ACCO had $106.4 million of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. Consolidated leverage ratio at quarter’s end was 4.3x and is expected to end the year in the 3.7x-3.9x range. At quarter’s end, there was approximately $205 million available for borrowing under the revolver. We believe ACCO is well positioned to fund both organic and inorganic growth opportunities.
Codere Online (CDRO/$9.18 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Strong Execution Drives Higher 2026 Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Quarter Across Core Markets. Codere Online reported Q2 net gaming revenue of €69.4 million, up 27% year over year and above our €60.0 million estimate, driven by robust performance in both Spain (+25%) and Mexico (+24%). Active customers increased 12%, while average monthly spend per active customer rose 13%, demonstrating healthy customer engagement and monetization.
Profitability Continues to Improve. Adjusted EBITDA increased to €5.8 million, better than our €2.5 million estimate and €2.3 million in the prior-year period, reflecting improved marketing efficiency and operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 8.4% from 4.3% a year ago, highlighting the scalability of the company’s platform.
Perfect (PERF/$1.92) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Merger Agreement Signed; Share Performance Now Tied to Closing Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Definitive merger agreement signed. Perfect has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by a consortium led by founder and CEO Alice Chang for $2.00 per share in cash. A higher bid remains possible, but unlikely given buyer protections.
Transaction risk materially reduced. The merger was unanimously approved by the Board following the recommendation of an independent Special Committee. In addition, the buyer group has secured voting support representing approximately 53.4% of the outstanding shares and 81.2% of the Company’s voting power. There is an 8% dissenting-share condition, although the controlling group’s voting support still makes shareholder approval highly likely.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 31, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 2Q26 Results AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – AZZ Acquires Seattle Galvanizing Company, Inc. Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – A Standout Second Quarter DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – A New DLH Emerging Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Record Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF)/OUTPERFORM – Moving in the Right Direction Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – A Solid 2Q26 But Still Waiting on Ag Rebound
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$4.23 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 First Look at 2Q26 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. ACCO delivered a strong second quarter, with sales and adjusted EPS exceeding both prior-year results and our estimates. In the Americas segment, sales benefited from strong back-to-school sell-in and better-than-expected performance in Mexico. The International segment faced market softness and shipment disruptions from a planned systems upgrade at ACCO’s largest distribution center in EMEA, which is now complete.
2Q26 Results. Second quarter net sales increased 5.1% to $415.1 million from $394.8 million in 2025. The increase reflected 5.7% from the EPOS acquisition and 1.7% from favorable foreign exchange. Comparable sales declined 2.3% as growth in the Americas segment’s learning and creative category was more than offset by softness in the International segment and technology peripherals globally. Net income was $14.1 million, or $0.15/sh, compared with $29.2 million, or $0.31/sh, in 2025. Adjusted net income increased to $27.4 million from $25.8 million in 2025, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.29 from $0.28 in 2025.
Acquisition of Seattle Galvanizing Company. AZZ Inc. announced the acquisition of Seattle Galvanizing Company, Inc., a privately held provider of both hot-dip and spin galvanizing solutions that is headquartered in Arlington, Washington. The acquisition expands AZZ Metal Coatings’ geographic footprint into the Pacific Northwest by establishing a platform to serve both hot-dip and spin galvanizing customers across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Western Montana, and Alaska from two Seattle-area locations. Seattle Galvanizing Company will be integrated into AZZ Metal Coatings’ existing network of hot-dip galvanizing and spin plants, increasing its total network to 43 sites in North America.
The Pacific Northwest’s Largest Galvanizer. Founded in 1962, Seattle Galvanizing has built a strong reputation for quality, service, and technical capability and has the capacity to process over 50,000 tons of steel. The first state-of-the-art hot-dip galvanizing facility features a 45-foot kettle, the largest in the Pacific Northwest, that will enable AZZ to process larger and more complex steel structures. A second and recently completed 38,000-square-foot spin galvanizing location was purpose-built to coat small to medium-sized metal components.
Codere Online (CDRO/$9.27 | Price Target: $14) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 George Proost [email protected] | A Standout Second Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. The company achieved its highest quarterly revenue to date of €69.4 million, up 27% year over year and nearly 16% above our estimate of €60 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Reported adj. EBITDA of €5.8 million also beat our estimate of €2.5 million, driven primarily by exceptional World Cup engagement and robust performance in its core markets of Spain and Mexico.
World Cup Success. The company delivered strong performance around the World Cup. Total stakes during the event reached approximately €63 million, a 180% increase over the 2022 tournament’s levels. Additionally, the company acquired around 40,000 new customers during the event, with a 56% increase in unique users.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.9 | Price Target: $7) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 A New DLH Emerging Rating: OUTPERFORM
3QFY26 Results. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter of 2026 totaled $44.2 million, down from $83.3 million in 3Q25 and below our $50 million estimate. Gross margin of 16.7% fell from 19.1% last year and was below our 20% projection. Partly reflecting one-time charges, DLH reported a net loss of $16.8 million, or $1.16/sh, versus net income of $289,000, or $0.02/sh last year. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.4 million, or 7.6% of revenue, down from $8.1 million and 9.7% last year. Notably, the final CMOP contracts transitioned during the quarter.
Operating Environment. Organic growth continues to be the number one corporate priority. Organic growth will come from two sources: on-contract growth and new awards. We believe on-contract growth will drive near-term growth. Management has a number of contracts with clients that can be expanded. In terms of new business, the government procurement markets have demonstrated improved clarity and stability in recent months, marking a significant improvement in the contracting environment when compared to fiscal 2025 and earlier in 2026.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$17.82 | Price Target: $28) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Record Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Record Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results. Seanergy reported revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $55.7 million, $41.5 million, and $1.32, respectively, compared to $37.5 million, $18.3 million, and $0.18 during the prior year period. We had projected revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $54.9 million, $38.4 million, and $1.15, respectively. Second quarter financial results reflected both materially higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates compared to the prior year quarter and lower-than-expected interest and finance costs relative to our estimates.
Updating Estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS estimates to $205.9 million, $134.2 million, and $3.70, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $203.2 million, $131.3 million, and $3.50. Our revised estimates reflect higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates and fewer off-hire days.
Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF/$1.5 | Price Target: $3.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Moving in the Right Direction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tier 1 Gold Deposit Potential. Tectonic Metals Inc. is a Canadian mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold projects in Alaska, one of the world’s premier mining jurisdictions. The company’s flagship asset is the district-scale Flat Gold Project in southwestern Alaska, which hosts a rapidly growing intrusion-related gold system with multi-million-ounce potential and remains the primary focus of exploration and resource expansion. Tectonic also owns the Tibbs Gold Project in Alaska’s Goodpaster Mining District.
Expanding the Leadership Team. Tectonic Metals recently appointed Ms. Keren Yun as Vice President, Investor Relations to lead investor relations, stakeholder engagement, and capital markets communications. Her appointment will strengthen the company’s engagement with the investment community as the company advances the Flat Gold Project and executes its district-scale exploration strategy. Ms. Yun is a strategic communications and investor relations professional with over two decades of experience working with exploration, development, and producing companies across the global mining sector. Prior to joining Tectonic, Ms. Yun led communications initiatives supporting Wyloo’s Eagle Nest Project in Ontario.
Titan International (TWI/$7.36 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 A Solid 2Q26 But Still Waiting on Ag Rebound Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Titan’s second quarter results reflect solid improvement from the prior year. The Company continues to benefit from its diverse business model, even in the face of ongoing challenging Agriculture end markets. This quarter, it was the Consumer segment that drove performance. Titan’s one-stop-shop product and distribution strategy is a key element of the diverse business model, in our view.
2Q26 Results. Driven by a 27.2% increase in Consumer segment revenue, Titan’s consolidated revenue grew 5.2% to $484 million in the second quarter. This was towards the high end of management’s guidance. We were at $480 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $34 million was up 13.3% y-o-y and exceeded the high end of management’s guidance. We were at $29 million. Titan reported quarterly net income of $6.3 million, or $0.09/sh, partly driven by tariff refund recoveries.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 30, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Governance Simplification Enhances Flexibility EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Intermediate-Term Outlook Remains Favorable; Updating Estimates Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – OCU410 Granted RMAT Designation in Geographic Atrophy The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Another New Contract
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$5.85 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Governance Simplification Enhances Flexibility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Governance Structure Simplified. Alliance Entertainment has amended its Certificate of Incorporation to eliminate the voting rights of its Class E common stock, leaving Class A common stockholders with exclusive voting control while preserving the Class E shares’ economic conversion rights. We view the amendment as a meaningful simplification of the company’s capital structure that should improve governance transparency.
Economic Interests Remain Unchanged. Importantly, the amendment does not affect the economic value of the Class E shares. The shares remain convertible into Class A stock upon specified triggering events and continue to participate economically on an as-converted basis, indicating that the amendment is purely a governance enhancement rather than a dilution event.
Updating Estimates. We have adjusted our second-quarter 2026 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS estimates to $17.4 million, $9.3 million, and $1.44, respectively, from $17.3 million, $8.4 million, and $1.18. Our estimates reflect modestly higher time charter equivalent rates and lower voyage expenses due to lower fuel costs. For FY 2026, we forecast revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $66.0 million, $31.9 million, and $4.27, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of $65.3 million, $30.5 million, and $3.87.
Intermediate-Term Outlook Remains Constructive. The intermediate-term outlook for the dry bulk shipping industry remains favorable, supported by strengthening charter rates, resilient demand for iron ore, grain, and bauxite, and a highly supportive supply backdrop. A historically low order book, limited shipyard capacity, an aging global fleet, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations are expected to constrain vessel supply growth and support freight rates through 2026. While the 2027 outlook offers less certainty, EuroDry has the flexibility to respond to market conditions by increasing its fixed-rate charter coverage.
RMAT Designation Brings Regulatory Advantages For OCU410. Ocugen announced that the FDA has granted Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation to OCU410 for Geographic Atrophy secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration (GA-AMD). The RMAT designation was granted after FDA evaluation of Phase 2 data and provides significant benefits, including Fast Track and Breakthrough Therapy designations.
RMAT Designation Carries Benefits During Clinical Development. The RMAT designation is granted to drugs that address a serious condition with significant unmet need. There are several benefits, including more frequent FDA communications and guidance during clinical trials and the BLA process. This increased FDA contact could allow Ocugen to address development questions earlier, reducing regulatory uncertainty and streamlining the review.
The GEO Group (GEO/$29.95 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Another New Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Contract. Hot on the heels of the Big Horn facility announcement, The GEO Group, Inc. has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the GEO-owned, 1,320-bed Rivers Facility in Winton, North Carolina. Yesterday’s announcement continues new award momentum, which we believe will continue into the second half of 2026.
Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $80 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the Facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – GeoVax Reports 2Q26 With Clinical Study Plans Moving Forward Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Investment Quarter Masks Long-Term Value
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.73 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 GeoVax Reports 2Q26 With Clinical Study Plans Moving Forward Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Reported 2Q26 With Updates For GEO-MVA and Oncology Programs. GeoVax reported a 2Q26 net loss of $4.4 million or $(0.97) per share, lower than our expected loss of $5.8 million. R&D expenses were lower than we projected due to strategic changes, with priority given to preparations for the upcoming Phase 3 trial of GEO-MVA in MPox and the Phase 2 trial of Gedeptin in oncology. Cash on June 30, 2026 was approximately $3.1 million.
Strategic Changes Lowered The 2Q26 Loss. As discussed in our Research Note on May 27, GeoVax will focus on GEO-MVA in infectious diseases and Gedeptin in oncology. These programs have established regulatory pathways, patient needs, and market potential.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$7.55 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Investment Quarter Masks Long-Term Value Rating: OUTPERFORM
Accelerated membership investment weighed heavily on Q2 results. Revenue declined 3% to $23.2 million, while Travelzoo reported a $2.8 million operating loss and a non-GAAP operating loss of $2.1 million. The decline reflected geopolitical uncertainty across Travelzoo’s markets and a deliberate increase in member-acquisition spending.
The recurring-revenue strategy is gaining measurable traction. Membership and subscription revenue increased to approximately $5.0 million in Q2 from $3.0 million in the prior-year period, while deferred revenue rose 54% from year-end to $13.4 million. Membership renewals reached a record level.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI)/OUTPERFORM – Building a More Resilient Local Media Platform First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Momentum Perfect (PERF)/MARKET PERFORM – Fundamentals Overshadowed by Pending Buyout
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.63 | Price Target: $33.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter Financial Results. Compared to the prior year period, second-quarter 2026 revenue increased to $551.6 million from $547.5 million due to strong oil & gas royalty revenues, increased coal sales volumes, and higher other revenues, partially offset by a lower average realized coal sales price per ton. Adjusted EBITDA increased 14.7% to $185.7 million compared to $161.9 million in the second quarter of last year. Adjusted net income attributable to ARLP increased to $79.6 million, or $0.61 per unit, compared to $59.4 million, or $0.46 per unit, during the prior year period. Second quarter financial results were largely in line with our estimates. We had projected total revenue of $553.5 million, adj. EBITDA of $181.2 million, and EPU of $0.62.
Oil & Gas Royalties Remain a Key Growth Driver. The oil & gas royalties segment delivered record quarterly revenue and segment adjusted EBITDA, driven by increased volumes and higher commodity prices. On July 1, ARLP closed the $206.2 million AllDale III and IV acquisition. Crude oil volumes are now expected to be in the range of 1.95 million to 2.05 million barrels, natural gas volumes are expected to be in the range of 10.0 million to 10.5 million MCF, and liquids volumes are expected to be in the range of 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels.
Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI/$21 | Price Target: $31) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Building a More Resilient Local Media Platform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Executing a multi-year turnaround strategy. Management is focused on three strategic priorities: stabilizing local direct advertising, expanding higher-margin owned-and-operated digital products, and strengthening the balance sheet through disciplined deleveraging. We believe successful execution could materially improve the company’s earnings profile over the next several years.
Digital mix continues to improve. Digital revenue represented more than 25% of total company revenue during the first quarter of 2026, while owned-and-operated digital products increased to approximately 65% of digital revenue. We believe the improving revenue mix should support higher margins, stronger customer retention, and improved free cash flow generation over time.
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$1.06 | Price Target: $2) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Gaining Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Building North America’s LFP Supply Chain. First Phosphate Corp. is a Québec-based critical minerals development company focused on establishing a fully integrated North American lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery materials supply chain. First Phosphate is dedicated exclusively to supplying the rapidly expanding LFP battery market through the production of high-purity igneous phosphate, purified phosphoric acid, and iron phosphate precursor materials.
Differentiated with Significant Competitive Advantages. First Phosphate benefits from significant competitive advantages and differentiation within both the phosphate industry and the broader critical minerals sector. Most phosphate producers worldwide focus on fertilizer markets using sedimentary phosphate deposits that require significant upgrading and are generally less suitable for producing battery-grade phosphoric acid. By contrast, First Phosphate is exclusively targeting the LFP battery industry using rare high-purity igneous phosphate, allowing it to focus on higher-value specialty battery materials.
Perfect (PERF/$1.93) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Fundamentals Overshadowed by Pending Buyout Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Another quarter of improving profitability. Revenue remained stable while higher gross margins and disciplined expense management drove another quarter of improving earnings quality.
AI SaaS model continues to scale. Gross margins remained above 80%, demonstrating the attractive economics of the company’s subscription-driven AI platform and expanding operating leverage.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 24, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Board Member Assumes Expanded Role Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 4Q26 Results In-line with Expectations SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Q4 Preview—Building Toward a Cash Flow Inflection
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.14 | Price Target: $0.3) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Board Member Assumes Expanded Role Rating: OUTPERFORM
Supporting Project Advancement. Aurania Resources has appointed current independent director Mr. Thomas Ullrich as Special Advisor, effective immediately, to support the advancement of the company’s strategic projects. Working closely with President and Chief Executive Officer Dr. Keith Barron, Mr. Ullrich will provide strategic guidance on operational and mineral exploration activities, evaluate strategic opportunities, assist with project management, strengthen industry relationships, and help prioritize key initiatives across the company’s portfolio while continuing to serve on the Board of Directors.
Leveraging Experience and Expertise. Mr. Ullrich offers more than 35 years of experience in mineral exploration and geoscience, with expertise encompassing technical exploration, project evaluation, and capital markets. He currently serves as Chief Executive Officer and a director of Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. and previously held senior technical roles with Antofagasta Minerals and Almaden Minerals, where he managed the drill program that led to the discovery of the Ixtaca silver-gold deposit in Mexico. We think Mr. Ullrich’s expanded role will enhance Aurania’s ability to advance its exploration and development initiatives to create long-term shareholder value.
Overview. Resources Connection’s 4Q26 results were mostly in line with management expectations. Overall industry conditions were consistent with 3Q26, suggesting the market is stabilizing. During the quarter, RGP continued to make focused investments to support future growth, which we are hopeful will occur in 2HFY27.
4Q26 Details. Revenue of $106.1 million was down 18.3% on a constant currency basis y-o-y but was within management’s $104-$109 guide. 4Q26 also had one less week of billable activity compared to 4Q25. Gross margin of 37.6% was down from 40.2% y-o-y but exceeded the top end of management’s guide. Adjusted EPS was a net loss of $0.07 compared to EPS of $0.16 in 4Q25.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$0.7 | Price Target: $5) Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler [email protected] | Q4 Preview—Building Toward a Cash Flow Inflection Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 Should Reinforce Improving Cash Flow Story. Although fourth quarter revenue should normalize following the seasonally strong Medicare enrollment period, we expect another quarter of healthy profitability and cash generation that reinforces management’s expectation for a significant cash flow acceleration entering fiscal 2027.
Senior Business Demonstrates Structural Earnings Strength. Even amid continued Medicare Advantage disruption, the Senior business has consistently produced EBITDA margins above 25% during enrollment periods. We expect another solid quarter as disciplined marketing spend and strong customer retention continue to support attractive economics.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 23, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Changes Create A New Cardiac Acute Critical Care Franchise Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates; Growth Outlook Remains Favorable
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$2.1 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Strategic Changes Create A New Cardiac Acute Critical Care Franchise Rating: OUTPERFORM
Advancing Products Through Partnerships. Cadrenal announced that it has modified its development strategy and product pipeline to focus on therapies for cardiac surgical care and orphan cardiac conditions. It now plans to advance the products through development partnerships, licensing, and commercialization agreements to minimize capital expenditures. This announcement formalizes the transition we have seen over the past several months.
Building A “Cardiac Acute Critical Care Franchise”. Cadrenal has refined its clinical focus to late-stage critical-care cardiovascular products for conditions with no effective treatments. It now plans to form partnerships for CAD-1005, frunexian, and tecarfarin, avoiding the large capital raises needed to fund further clinical trials.
Updating Estimates. We have increased our 2Q 2026 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS estimates to $54.9 million, $38.4 million, and $1.15, respectively, from $50.0 million, $35.2 million, and $1.00. Our estimates reflect higher time charter equivalent rates than previously estimated. Moreover, we have lowered our estimates for vessel operating expenses in the second quarter and increased our estimate for general and administrative expenses in the second and third quarters. For FY 2026, we forecast revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS of $203.2 million, $131.3 million, and $3.50, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of $198.3 million, $130.2 million, and $3.45.
Constructive Outlook. Seanergy’s outlook remains constructive, supported by favorable Capesize market fundamentals, a disciplined capital allocation strategy, and a multi-year fleet modernization program that positions the company to benefit from what we think will be a structurally attractive market through 2029. Following a strong first quarter in which the company reported significantly higher earnings and cash flow, we expect the momentum to continue, with second quarter time charter equivalent (TCE) rates projected to be approximately $31,430 per day.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc. Supports Aftermarket Expansion Strategy Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – More New Business Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Bethania Delivers Record Quarter as Production Gains Momentum
FreightCar America (RAIL/$7.81 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc. Supports Aftermarket Expansion Strategy Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc. FreightCar America announced the acquisition of Southern Parts & Equipment, Inc., a Monroe, Georgia-based distributor of reconditioned, new, and used railcar parts and equipment. The transaction, funded with cash, represents the company’s second acquisition in the railcar aftermarket segment within the past year.
A Growing Aftermarket Platform. The acquisition advances RAIL’s strategy of building a larger, more diversified aftermarket business that generates recurring revenue and reduces the cyclicality of new railcar manufacturing. Founded in 1988, SP&E has established a strong reputation serving railcar repair shops and private railcar owners. The transaction expands FreightCar’s customer base, enhances sourcing capabilities, and creates additional cross-selling opportunities across its growing aftermarket platform.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$48.21 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 More New Business Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Business. Kratos continues to receive new business, confirming the large growth opportunities available, in our view. The new business highlights the Company’s operating philosophy of having the right products, in the right space, at the right time. The recent awards add to the pile of new business Kratos has been awarded so far in 2026.
C-UAS Award. Kratos was awarded a sole-source, single-award Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract for approximately $156 million by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Secure Transportation (OST) in support of Project Solar Shield. Under this new contract award, Kratos will provide mobile Counter-Unmanned Aircraft System (C-UAS) platforms designed to support OST’s critical National Security mission. The OST is responsible for the safe and secure ground and air transportation of nuclear weapons, weapon components, and special nuclear materials. Kratos was selected following a rigorous technical evaluation.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.47 | Price Target: $2.5) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Bethania Delivers Record Quarter as Production Gains Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Operating Momentum. Kuya Silver reported another record quarter at its Bethania mine, with mined mineralized material increasing 66% sequentially to 5,097 tonnes. The company also achieved record quarterly silver production of 23,912 ounces or 30,559 silver-equivalent ounces, along with record monthly production in June as underground development, mine sequencing, and production rates continued to improve. Management expects recoveries and grades to continue strengthening as the operation advances toward steady-state production.
Quarterly Financial Highlights. Revenue for the quarter totaled approximately $1.25 million, generated primarily from silver sales, which accounted for 87% of total revenue. Metal sold included 17,450 ounces of silver or 20,006 ounces of silver equivalent. The company realized an average silver selling price of $72 per ounce during the quarter, benefiting from a favorable silver price environment. While quarterly silver sales volumes were lower than the prior year due to the timing of sales, higher realized silver prices supported revenue growth as production continued to ramp toward higher sustainable mining rates. We expect the company to release full second quarter financial and operational results in mid-August.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI)/OUTPERFORM – Modifications To Phase 3 FLAMINGO-01 Trial Raise Probability Of Success NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Further Expansion in the Defense Industry T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Stock Split Complete
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI/$14.07 | Price Target: $45) Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625 Modifications To Phase 3 FLAMINGO-01 Trial Raise Probability Of Success Rating: OUTPERFORM
Trial Modifications Announced. Greenwich Pharmaceuticals announced modifications to the Phase 3 FLAMINGO-01 trial testing GLS-100 for the prevention of recurrent breast cancer. Several changes reflect preliminary findings and allow for increased enrollment in the pivotal arm of the trial. We believe the changes increase the likelihood of positive results in the interim and the final analyses, as well as potentially doubling the market.
The Original Phase 3 Design. The original trial design screened patients for HLA type, an immune system classification. Patients with HLA-A*02, the most common type, were randomized into two double-blind arms testing GLSI-100 against a placebo control. The non-HLA-A*02 patients were entered into an open-label arm. Following the standard of care treatment for breast cancer, patients were given six monthly doses of GLSI-100, then boosters every 6 months for 11 total doses.
NN (NNBR/$3.48 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Further Expansion in the Defense Industry Rating: OUTPERFORM
Contract Manufacturing. NN continues to expand into new and adjacent segments, providing the Company with strong growth opportunities, in our view. Most recently, NN successfully entered the Tier 1 contract manufacturing industry for firearm components in the United States market.
Details. NN’s contract manufacturing agreement is to mass-produce completed firearms products for a leading provider of firearms products in the U.S. This new business begins in the third quarter and will continue ramping up through 2028. This new business is expected to add between $12 million and $15 million in sales. Due to the multipart complexity of this new product line, these products are now the highest-priced products in the Company’s portfolio of new products.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$4.26 | Price Target: $20) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Stock Split Complete Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse Stock Split. As outlined in prior reports, T3 underwent a 1-for-125 reverse stock split to regain compliance with Nasdaq regulations. As a result, the number of outstanding shares declined from approximately 139.8 million to approximately 1.1 million. We adjusted our model to reflect the impact on earnings per share.
Impact. Assuming the stock split only impacts the forward quarters, the 2Q adjusted net loss increases to $2.87/sh, 3Q to a loss of $2.16/sh, and 4Q to a net loss of $1.75/sh, up from a previous projected net loss of $0.06/sh, $0.03/sh, and $0.02 per share, respectively, Full year net loss increases to $3.90/sh, up from a prior full year net loss forecast of $0.50/sh. If we adjusted 1Q26 EPS loss to the 1.1 million outstanding shares, full-year net loss rises to $30.26/sh, which includes a number of one-time non-cash charges. The share change does not impact our estimates for adjusted EBITDA, which remains at a loss of $6 million for 2026.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 17, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Building Momentum Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF)/OUTPERFORM – Resolution Minerals Receives FAST-41 Designation for Golden Gate T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Increases Reverse Split Ratio to 1-for-125 from 1-for-50
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$46.96 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Building Momentum Rating: OUTPERFORM
Momentum. Recent awards, facilities expansion, world events, and increasing defense spending worldwide are combining to provide positive momentum to Kratos’ business, in our view. With proven, existing products focused on key areas of new Defense priorities, we continue to believe Kratos is well-positioned to capitalize on the current operating environment.
$400M Hypersonics. The Company recently received approximately $400 million in funding from the Department of War (DoW) related to certain hypersonic systems and other National Security related programs. Notably, beginning in June and both increasing and accelerating into July, Kratos is seeing significant funding from the DoW, which is expected to accelerate the Company’s organic growth rate, increase operating cash receipts, while reducing customer receivables, inventory, and assets where Kratos had previously “leaned forward” to ensure Kratos met or exceeded customers’ schedule-related and other expectations.
Resolution Minerals Ltd (RLMLF/$0.04 | Price Target: $0.15) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Resolution Minerals Receives FAST-41 Designation for Golden Gate Rating: OUTPERFORM
Golden Gate FAST-41 Designation. Resolution Minerals’ Golden Gate Project in Idaho has been granted FAST-41 Transparency Coverage by the U.S. Federal Permitting Council, making it the Company’s second project to receive the designation after Antimony Ridge. The designation highlights the strategic importance of the Horse Heaven Project as a domestic source of tungsten, antimony, and gold and is expected to accelerate permitting through enhanced federal coordination and oversight.
Golden Gate Plan of Operations. The Golden Gate Project is part of Resolution’s 15,000-acre Horse Heaven Project, which also includes the Antimony Ridge target, the Johnson Creek Tungsten Mill, and historical tungsten stockpiles. The Company has submitted a Plan of Operations that includes construction of new access roads, up to 340 drill holes and 2,000 feet of trenching, while continuing a fully funded 45-hole drilling program to advance resource definition.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$0.05 | Price Target: $0.8) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Increases Reverse Split Ratio to 1-for-125 from 1-for-50 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increased Ratio. Yesterday, T3 announced that, given the recent stock activity, the T3 Board of Directors determined to significantly increase the ratio from the 1-for-50 disclosed in July 13th’s 8-K to 1-for-125. T3 Defense still expects that its common stock will open for trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market on a reverse split-adjusted basis on July 20, 2026, under the existing trading symbol “DFNS”.
Impact. At the Effective Date of the reverse stock split, every 125 shares of common stock outstanding and held of record by each stockholder of the Company will be automatically reclassified into one new share of Common Stock, reducing the number of shares of common stock issued and outstanding from approximately 139.8 million to approximately 1 million. We will update our models and price target following the split.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 16, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Century Lithium Advances Commercial Readiness CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Redeeming 4.75% Notes Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF)/OUTPERFORM – Advancing the Nisk Project Toward Development T3 Defense (DFNS)/OUTPERFORM – Reverse Split The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – New Contract with ICE; Raising Price Target
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.18 | Price Target: $3.05) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Century Lithium Advances Commercial Readiness Rating: OUTPERFORM
Angel Island Lithium Carbonate to High-Purity Lithium Metal. Century Lithium announced that lithium carbonate produced from its wholly owned Angel Island Lithium Project in Nevada was successfully converted into high-purity lithium metal by Alpha-En Corporation using its proprietary extraction and electrodeposition technology and subsequently incorporated into cylindrical battery cells manufactured by EaglePicher Technologies. The work was completed under the U.S. Army Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, which supports the development of technologies critical to national defense.
Strong Battery Performance. Testing demonstrated that the lithium metal anodes met EaglePicher’s performance specifications and delivered higher operating voltages and improved power performance compared with control cells. These results highlight the suitability of Angel Island lithium for advanced, high-energy battery applications while validating the project’s potential to supply a domestic source of battery-grade lithium for defense-related technologies.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$31.09 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Redeeming 4.75% Notes Rating: OUTPERFORM
Redemption. CoreCivic has elected to redeem in full the 4.75% Senior Notes due 2027 that remain outstanding on August 12, 2026. This was an expected use of funds from the recently announced sale of two facilities to the Federal government. As of July 13, 2026, the principal amount of the outstanding 2027 Notes was $238,468,000. We anticipate additional debt reduction with a portion of the remaining sale proceeds.
Detail. The 2027 Notes will be redeemed at a redemption price equal to 100.000% of the principal amount of the then-outstanding 2027 Notes, plus the applicable “make-whole” premium specified in the indenture, as supplemented, governing the 2027 Senior Notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but not including, the Redemption Date. We estimate the annual interest expense savings to be approximately $11.3 million.
Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF/$0.74 | Price Target: $2.65) Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272 Advancing the Nisk Project Toward Development Rating: OUTPERFORM
Building Momentum. Power Metallic is advancing the Nisk Project from exploration toward development, with a maiden NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate expected by the end of July 2026, followed by a Preliminary Economic Assessment which we anticipate could be completed in December 2026. The addition of mining executive Mr. Christopher Beal as Vice President of Operations further strengthens the company’s technical and operational capabilities as it progresses toward engineering studies and future development.
Drilling Continues to Deliver. Recent drilling reinforced the exceptional quality of the Lion Zone, highlighted by an intercept of 36.42 meters grading 2.83% copper equivalent, including 6.0 meters grading 12.38% copper equivalent. Combined with consistently high-grade drill results, strong metallurgical recoveries, and multiple target areas, the Nisk Project has the potential to become a significant polymetallic mining district.
T3 Defense (DFNS/$0.07 | Price Target: $0.8) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 Reverse Split Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse Split. T3 is implementing a 50-for-1 reverse stock split. The reverse stock split will become effective as of 12:01 a.m., Eastern Time, on July 20, 2026, and the Company’s common stock will begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market on a split-adjusted basis when the market opens on July 20, 2026.
Rationale. The Company is implementing the reverse stock split to raise the per-share bid price of the Company’s common stock above $1.00 per share and bring the Company back into compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(a). The Company will have regained compliance once the Company’s shares trade at or above $1.00 for a minimum of 10 consecutive trading days, at which time Nasdaq will provide the Company with notice that it has regained compliance.
The GEO Group (GEO/$29.82 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes [email protected] | 561-999-2262 New Contract with ICE; Raising Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Contract. The GEO Group has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 1,188-bed Big Horn Facility. GEO has entered into a lease agreement with the Facility owner. We view the new award positively and expect to see more such announcements going forward as ICE continues to seek out partners to assist the Agency in fulfilling its mission.
Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, excluding transportation revenue. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.
Dream Finders Homes finally got its target. After pursuing Beazer Homes in public for three months, the two builders agreed Wednesday to a deal — and the way it came together says a lot about what beaten-down small-caps are actually worth.
The terms: Dream Finders (NYSE: DFH) will acquire Beazer (NYSE: BZH) in an all-cash transaction worth roughly $2.2 billion in enterprise value, paying $33.50 a share. The combination creates the sixth-largest homebuilder in the country, spanning 26 markets and about 520 active communities across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Texas, the West and the Midwest. Dream Finders expects more than $100 million in annual cost synergies and says the deal will be double-digit-percentage accretive to earnings in year one. It’s targeted to close in the fourth quarter, pending Beazer shareholder and regulatory approval.
This didn’t come out of nowhere. Dream Finders first bid for Beazer back in May, took its case public to pressure Beazer’s board, then raised its offer — from an initial proposal, to $32 a share in late June, to the final $33.50. Beazer resisted, then came to the table. Its CEO framed the outcome plainly: a significant, certain cash return for shareholders in an uncertain market. A persistent acquirer wore down a reluctant target, and both sides decided a bird in hand beat the alternative.
Now the part worth slowing down for. That $33.50 is roughly a 70% premium to where Beazer traded before Dream Finders’ pursuit went public — and it’s still only 0.8 times Beazer’s book value. Both numbers are true at once. Beazer’s stock, like much of the homebuilding sector, had been trading well below the accounting value of its land and finished homes, because high mortgage rates and shaky affordability had the market pricing builders for a downturn. So Dream Finders is buying hard assets for less than book value while handing Beazer’s shareholders a fat premium over where those same assets were being valued. The public market underpriced the balance sheet; a strategic buyer pounced.
That’s the pattern small-cap investors should file away, because it’s the same one running through deal after deal this year. When public markets discount an entire sector below the value of its assets, buyers with a longer horizon step in and roll up the cheap ones. Homebuilding is consolidating — scale drives down costs on purchasing, overhead, and in-house mortgage and title — and the cheapest way to buy scale right now is to buy a rival trading below book. Expect more of it while rates stay high and small builders stay cheap.
None of this is free money. Dream Finders is layering on financing and integration risk, housing demand is genuinely uncertain, and buying below book only pays if those assets hold their value. Beazer’s holders get certainty; Dream Finders’ holders are making a leveraged bet that scale wins.
The headline is “sixth-largest homebuilder.” The quieter lesson is the useful one: in a market that’s written off rate-sensitive sectors, real value is sitting in plain view on small-cap balance sheets — and patient buyers are the ones collecting it.
Everyone will watch Friday’s jobs report for what it says about the Fed. Small-cap investors should watch it more closely than anyone — because no corner of the market is more exposed to the number, and none needs a more specific outcome.
Here’s the setup. Economists expect the US economy added about 80,000 jobs in July, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. That would be a step up from June’s soft 57,000. The supporting data this week has been a mixed bag that mostly leans benign: job openings barely moved, ADP’s private hiring gauge came in light but wages for job-switchers ticked higher, and the outplacement firm Challenger reported fewer planned layoffs and more planned hiring. A Bank of America analysis even suggested payroll growth may have picked up in July, with the gains skewed toward lower-income households — whose after-tax pay is now growing faster than higher earners’ for the first time since late 2024.
So why does this matter more to small caps than to the giants at the top of the index?
Because small companies live and die on the cost of capital. They carry more floating-rate debt, they refinance more often, and they lack the fortress balance sheets and overseas cash piles that insulate the mega-caps. When the Fed’s rate path shifts, it moves small caps first and hardest. And the jobs report is the single biggest input into that path. They’re also overwhelmingly domestic, so the health of the US labor market is the health of their customers.
Now the part that makes Friday genuinely tricky: small caps need a Goldilocks number.
Too hot, and the story turns against them. A blowout print sends Treasury yields higher and pushes rate cuts further out — exactly what played out midweek, with yields climbing and the Russell 2000 slipping while the Dow gave back its record run. Too cold, and a different fear takes over: small caps are the most economically sensitive part of the market, so a number weak enough to whisper “recession” hits them harder than anyone. What they want is the narrow middle — cooling enough to keep the Fed cutting, steady enough to keep the expansion intact.
The timing raises the stakes. This lands just as small-cap earnings growth has finally started outpacing large-caps and the market’s rally is broadening beyond a handful of AI names. A friendly jobs number could be the spark that extends that rotation. An ugly one could smother it before it gets going.
One caution worth keeping in view: don’t overtrade a single data point. Payroll figures have been noisy and heavily revised lately — June disappointed, earlier months were marked down — and the reliability of the data itself has been a live debate. One print is a data point, not a trend.
Still, watch Friday closely. The headlines will fixate on the top-line number and the Fed. The more interesting question sits one rung down the market-cap ladder: whether small caps get the number they need to keep their moment alive.
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TARS) announced Thursday it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire privately held Alkeus Pharmaceuticals, adding gildeuretinol, an investigational once-daily oral therapy for Stargardt disease, to its growing eye care pipeline. Under the terms of the agreement, Tarsus will pay approximately $450 million upfront, including $270 million in cash, with up to $350 million in additional milestone payments and low-to-mid single digit royalties on future product sales.
Alongside the acquisition, Tarsus secured $125 million in gross proceeds through an oversubscribed private placement equity financing, giving the company additional capital to fund the integration and continued clinical development of its expanding pipeline. The deal is expected to close later in 2026, subject to customary closing conditions.
What Alkeus Brings to Tarsus
Stargardt disease is a rare, inherited retinal disorder that currently has no FDA-approved treatments, making it exactly the kind of high unmet need indication that commands significant strategic value despite years remaining before any potential approval. Gildeuretinol has already been studied in more than 400 individuals, demonstrating a favorable tolerability and efficacy profile, and has received both Breakthrough Therapy and Orphan Drug designations from the FDA, two regulatory signals that typically accelerate development timelines and reflect meaningful confidence in a drug’s underlying science.
The catch, and the reason this deal is genuinely a long-term bet, is timing. Topline data from the pivotal Phase 3 NORTHSTAR trial is not expected until the second half of 2029, meaning Tarsus is paying $450 million upfront for an asset that will not produce a definitive readout for roughly three more years.
A Pattern, Not a One-Off Deal
This is not Tarsus’s first eye care acquisition this year. The Alkeus deal builds directly on the company’s recent acquisition of iRenix Medical, which brought IRX-101, a potential ocular antiseptic, into the fold. Combined with its existing pipeline, which includes TP-04 for ocular rosacea and TP-05 for Lyme disease prevention, both currently in Phase 2, Tarsus is deliberately assembling one of the more comprehensive eye care pipelines in the industry rather than remaining a single-product company.
That strategy is being funded by genuine commercial strength. Tarsus reported second quarter 2026 net product sales of $173.9 million for its lead commercial product XDEMVY, an increase of more than 69% year over year, and raised its full-year 2026 XDEMVY sales guidance to a range of $685 million to $705 million. That accelerating commercial performance gives Tarsus the balance sheet flexibility to fund a multi-year pipeline bet like Alkeus while continuing to invest across its broader portfolio.
What It Means for Investors Tracking Ophthalmology and Rare Disease
For investors tracking small and mid cap companies in ophthalmology and inherited retinal disease, this transaction reinforces just how much strategic value the market continues to assign to differentiated science addressing conditions with no approved treatment options, even when the definitive clinical proof point sits years in the future. The broader inherited retinal disease space remains an area of active development, with companies like Ocugen continuing to advance gene therapy programs targeting similar categories of rare, previously untreatable retinal conditions.
Tarsus is betting that being the eye care company with the deepest pipeline, not just the strongest single product, is what builds durable value over the next decade. The market’s initial reaction, with shares pulling back modestly in premarket trading, suggests investors are still digesting the size of the bet relative to how far away the payoff actually is.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Awards. Graham Corporation was awarded two contracts for a combined value of over $43 million. These awards reflect the continued demand the Company is seeing across its defense platforms. The revenue for the contracts will be reflected in the Company’s first and second fiscal year 2027 backlog.
MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight Torpedo. The first award is a follow-on fourth option year supporting the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight Torpedo program, awarded in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended June 30, 2026. The Company will continue to provide alternators and regulators under this option year.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Wall Street woke up Wednesday to more of what it’s gotten all week: record highs, falling oil, and a fragile peace headline out of the Middle East. The financial press will lead with the Dow. The more useful question for anyone investing below the mega-cap tier is what cheaper crude actually does to small caps.
Start with the setup. After a searing rally that pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to record closes Tuesday, US futures steadied Wednesday morning. Oil fell for a third straight session — Brent slipped near $78 and WTI dropped under $75 — on growing hope that the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil, could reopen. Qatar said a US–Iran proposal has been drafted, and Iran is reportedly weighing whether to let European navies clear mines from the waterway. Asia cheered it overnight, with South Korea’s KOSPI jumping 4%. Gold pushed higher, the VIX stayed calm, and Russell 2000 futures held firm.
Here’s why small-cap investors should care more than the headline suggests.
Small companies are the most exposed to the price of energy — and the most helped when it falls. They’re overwhelmingly domestic, they run thinner margins, and they lack the global hedging desks and pricing power of the mega-caps. When crude drops, the input-cost relief flows straight to the bottom line of small-cap industrials, transports, manufacturers, and consumer names. Cheaper oil is, in effect, a stealth margin boost for the exact companies that live closest to the edge on the income statement.
There’s a second-order effect that matters even more. Lower oil feeds disinflation, disinflation keeps the Fed’s rate-cut path alive, and small caps are the single most rate-sensitive corner of the market. Pair that with this week’s soft ADP jobs number and you get a macro mix that has historically favored the little guys.
Now the honest other side, because it cuts both ways. Energy is a meaningful slice of the Russell 2000, and cheaper crude squeezes small-cap exploration and production names hard. If your small-cap exposure leans toward oil and gas, this is a headwind, not a tailwind. The net effect depends entirely on what you own.
Step back, though, and the direction of travel is the story. The rally is finally broadening beyond the handful of AI mega-caps that carried it for two years — the Russell is joining the record run, not watching from the sidelines. A de-risking geopolitical backdrop, falling oil, and an easing Fed is the kind of trifecta that tends to reward the laggards. For two years, small caps have been the laggard.
One caveat to keep front and center: this peace is fragile, and a single headline could send oil right back up. Don’t build a thesis on a diplomatic maybe. But watch the setup. While everyone fixates on the Dow printing another record, the more interesting move may be one rung down the market-cap ladder — where the companies most helped by cheap oil and cheap money have been overlooked the longest.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Second Quarter FY 2026 Financial Results. RAIL generated a 2Q FY26 adjusted net loss to common stockholders of $821.0 thousand, or $(0.02) per share, compared to adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.11 per share, during the prior year period. We had projected net income of $350 thousand or $0.01 per share. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue amounted to 5.5% compared to 15.0% in 2Q FY 2025. Revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $113.1 million and 927, compared to $118.6 million and 939 during the prior year period. We had forecast revenue of $112.3 million and deliveries of 923. Adj. EBITDA amounted to $1.2 million compared to $9.3 million in 2Q FY 2025 and our estimate of $5.7 million. We had projected higher gross margin.
Updated FY 2026 Guidance. Management updated its FY 2026 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 3,500 to 3,900, revenue in the range of $410 to $460 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $36 to $44 million. Prior guidance projected railcar deliveries in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adj. EBITDA in the range of $41 to $50 million. Our current estimates are at the low end of prior guidance. We will update our estimates following today’s investor call.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SUPN) and Indivior Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: INDV) announced Monday they have entered into a definitive agreement to combine in a tax-free, all-stock merger of equals, creating a new company focused entirely on central nervous system disease. The combined entity will be named Supernus, Inc., trade on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker SUPN, and be headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
The transaction is expected to generate pro forma net revenue of approximately $2.2 billion and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $888 million, alongside roughly $125 million in expected annual cost synergies. Closing is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, and the boards of both companies have unanimously approved the deal.
How the Merger Is Structured
The deal terms reveal a genuine merger of equals rather than a straightforward acquisition. Supernus stockholders will receive 1.5401 shares of Indivior common stock for each Supernus share they hold, resulting in Indivior stockholders owning approximately 56.5% of the combined company and Supernus stockholders owning approximately 43.5%, on a fully diluted basis.
Ahead of closing, Indivior stockholders will also receive a one-time special cash dividend totaling $1.0 billion. That dividend will be funded through a combination of existing cash on hand and a $650 million term loan facility committed by Citibank. Jack Khattar, currently President and CEO of Supernus, will lead the combined company in that same role, while Tony Kingsley, currently a member of Indivior’s board, will serve as Board Chair.
Two Complementary CNS Franchises Coming Together
The strategic logic centers on scale and portfolio diversification within neuroscience. Supernus has built its business around psychiatric and neurological conditions, while Indivior has focused heavily on addiction treatment. Together, the combined company will market 11 differentiated commercial medicines spanning psychiatry, neurology, and addiction, a breadth that neither company could offer independently at this scale.
That diversification matters strategically because CNS drug development is notoriously difficult, with high clinical failure rates and long development timelines. A combined commercial portfolio spanning multiple CNS subcategories reduces the company’s dependence on any single therapeutic area or product cycle, while giving it a broader sales and marketing infrastructure to support both existing products and future pipeline candidates.
A Financially Disciplined Combination
Alongside the merger announcement, Supernus also raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance, moving its prior range of $1.215 billion to $1.285 billion up to a new range of $1.295 billion to $1.365 billion, above the consensus estimate of $1.245 billion, a signal of underlying business strength independent of the transaction itself.
The combined company is projected to carry net debt of roughly $878 million against its earnings base, translating to a net leverage ratio below 1 times EBITDA. That conservative balance sheet is a notable feature of the deal, giving the newly formed Supernus, Inc. meaningful financial flexibility to continue investing in its internal pipeline while also pursuing additional strategic acquisitions once the merger closes.
What It Means for Investors Tracking Specialty Pharma
For investors following small and mid cap pharmaceutical companies, this deal illustrates a consolidation pattern that continues to play out across specialty therapeutic areas. Two mid-sized companies, each strong in a narrower CNS niche, are combining to build the kind of commercial scale, balance sheet strength, and portfolio diversification that increasingly determines competitive positioning in specialty pharma, without either company needing to be acquired outright by a larger strategic buyer. The broader CNS space remains one of the more active areas of biopharmaceutical development, with clinical-stage companies like NeuroSense Therapeutics continuing to advance novel approaches to neurological disease even as larger, more established players consolidate around commercial scale.
Amazon shares jumped 10% in premarket trading Friday after the company topped second quarter expectations, driven by an acceleration in Amazon Web Services that one analyst covering the stock described as a genuine home run for the company. The results stood in sharp contrast to the mixed reception several other mega cap earnings reports have received this season.
AWS generated $42.2 billion in second quarter revenue, up 36.7% year over year, with strength across both its core cloud business and its expanding AI services. Amazon disclosed that its AI and custom chip businesses have each individually surpassed a $25 billion annualized revenue run rate, a figure that underscores just how quickly the AI infrastructure side of the business has scaled. The company’s custom chip business is now growing at a triple-digit year-over-year rate.
A Record Quarter of Growth
CEO Andy Jassy told investors on the earnings call that AWS added over $4.6 billion in revenue quarter over quarter, roughly 80% more than the company’s largest previous quarterly increase. The segment’s backlog now stands at $496 billion, growing at a triple-digit rate year over year. Jassy noted that customers continue choosing AWS for the breadth of its capabilities, particularly the ability to run AI inference near existing applications and data, a capability AWS offers more extensively than its competitors.
AWS is now running at approximately a $170 billion annual revenue run rate, more than four times larger than it was in 2019, illustrating the scale of growth the cloud division has achieved over the past several years.
The Capex Number That Matters
Heading into the report, Wall Street had been closely watching two things: AWS growth and capital expenditures tied to AI infrastructure. Amazon delivered on both fronts, but not in the direction some investors might have expected given the market’s recent skepticism toward AI spending. The company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to approximately $220 billion, up from its prior guidance of roughly $200 billion.
In a market environment where companies like Oracle and Tesla have seen their stocks punished for similarly aggressive AI-related spending increases, Amazon’s reception was notably different. Wall Street appeared willing to look past the higher spending given AWS’s accelerating growth and expanding operating margins, a combination that suggests the capital is translating into measurable revenue rather than simply funding future capacity that has yet to prove out. Jassy indicated that demand for AI and cloud computing continues to outstrip available server capacity, with planned 2027 expansion already largely booked into 2028.
What It Means for Smaller Companies in the AI Supply Chain
For investors tracking the broader technology and infrastructure ecosystem, Amazon’s report offers a useful counterpoint to the AI spending anxiety that has weighed on chip and infrastructure names throughout the summer. When a hyperscaler raises capital expenditure guidance and the market responds positively rather than punitively, it signals renewed confidence that AI infrastructure demand remains durable, at least when that spending is paired with visible, accelerating revenue growth like AWS delivered this quarter.
That distinction matters considerably for smaller companies supplying components, power infrastructure, cooling systems, and specialized hardware into the broader AI buildout. A $220 billion capital expenditure plan does not get executed through Amazon’s own engineering teams alone. It flows through an extensive supplier base, and this quarter’s results suggest that demand signal remains firmly intact even as some large cap names in the space have faced renewed investor scrutiny in recent weeks.
HOUSTON, July 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Summit Midstream Corporation (NYSE: SMC) (“Summit”, “SMC” or the “Company”) announced today that it will report operating and financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on Monday, August 10, 2026, after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call
SMC will host a conference call at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on August 11, 2026, to discuss its quarterly operating and financial results. The call can be accessed via teleconference at: Q2 2026 Summit Midstream Corporation Earnings Conference Call (https://register-conf.media-server.com/register/BI8cebf785fce846a9bb80ae80660d3cbc). Once registration is completed, participants will receive a dial-in number along with a personalized PIN to access the call. While not required, it is recommended that participants join 10 minutes prior to the event start. The conference call, live webcast and archive of the call can be accessed through the Investors section of SMC’s website at www.summitmidstream.com.
About Summit Midstream Corporation
SMC is a value-driven corporation focused on developing, owning and operating midstream energy infrastructure assets that are strategically located in the core producing areas of unconventional resource basins, primarily shale formations, in the continental United States. SMC provides natural gas, crude oil and produced water gathering, processing and transportation services pursuant to primarily long-term, fee-based agreements with customers and counterparties in five unconventional resource basins: (i) the Williston Basin, which includes the Bakken and Three Forks shale formations in North Dakota; (ii) the Denver-Julesburg Basin, which includes the Niobrara and Codell shale formations in Colorado and Wyoming; (iii) the Fort Worth Basin, which includes the Barnett Shale formation in Texas; (iv) the Arkoma Basin, which includes the Woodford and Caney shale formations in Oklahoma; and (v) the Piceance Basin, which includes the Mesaverde formation as well as the Mancos and Niobrara shale formations in Colorado. SMC has an equity method investment in Double E Pipeline, LLC, which provides interstate natural gas transportation service from multiple receipt points in the Delaware Basin to various delivery points in and around the Waha Hub in Texas. SMC is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release includes certain statements concerning expectations for the future that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may project, indicate or imply future results, events, performance or achievements and may contain the words “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “believe,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions, or future conditional verbs such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “would” and “could.” In addition, any statement concerning future financial performance (including future revenues, earnings or growth rates), payment of dividends on any series of stock, ongoing business strategies and possible actions taken by SMC or its subsidiaries are also forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements also contain known and unknown risks and uncertainties (many of which are difficult to predict and beyond management’s control) that may cause SMC’s actual results in future periods to differ materially from anticipated or projected results. An extensive list of specific material risks and uncertainties affecting SMC is contained in its 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on March 16, 2026, as amended and updated from time to time. Any forward-looking statements in this press release are made as of the date of this press release and SMC undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new information or events.
Intercontinental Exchange announced this morning it will acquire MarketAxess Holdings for $167 per share in cash, a 33% premium that values the fixed income trading platform at roughly $6 billion in equity value and $5.7 billion in total enterprise value. It’s a deal aimed squarely at a problem that has persisted through decades of financial market modernization: the bond market still trades like it’s 1995.
That is not an exaggeration. The global fixed income market carries an estimated $145.1 trillion in outstanding debt, dwarfing the equity markets in size, yet bond trading remains disproportionately manual, conducted bilaterally over phone calls and instant messages between dealers, with wide bid-ask spreads and limited price transparency. Stocks solved this problem years ago through centralized, electronic exchanges. Bonds never fully did, and that gap is exactly what ICE is paying to close.
MarketAxess brings the piece ICE has been missing. The platform connects roughly 2,100 institutional investors and broker-dealers across more than 90 countries, enabling electronic trading in corporate bonds, municipal debt, emerging market bonds, and U.S. Treasuries. ICE, meanwhile, has spent years building out the surrounding infrastructure, a retail and wealth-focused bond trading franchise, fixed income data and analytics, and a global index business, without ever owning the institutional execution network to tie it all together. ICE Chair and CEO Jeff Sprecher framed the deal as a continuation of a strategy the company has run for two decades: find the largest, least efficient corners of finance and rebuild them with better technology, the same playbook ICE has already applied to energy markets, credit default swaps, and mortgage technology.
The financial structure of the deal is worth noting for what it signals about ICE’s confidence in the combination. The transaction is being financed entirely in cash through newly issued debt, a mix of bonds, a term loan, and commercial paper, and ICE is simultaneously increasing its quarterly share repurchase baseline to $400 million from $350 million rather than pausing buybacks to conserve cash. The company expects the deal to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share in its first full year, with $100 million in annual run-rate cost synergies expected within three years. ICE’s gross leverage will begin at 3.4 times pro forma EBITDA, with a target of returning to 3.0 times or below within 18 to 24 months, a timeline that suggests management views the combined business as strongly cash generative even while absorbing new debt.
For a deal of this size in market infrastructure, the strategic logic is straightforward enough that it barely needs translation. Consolidated liquidity pools tend to produce tighter pricing and lower transaction costs for everyone trading on them, which is the same network effect that has driven exchange consolidation across asset classes for years. MarketAxess CEO Chris Concannon pointed to the complementary nature of the two businesses, MarketAxess brings the institutional trading network, ICE brings retail protocols, data, and connectivity, as the combination’s core rationale.
The deal still requires MarketAxess shareholder approval and customary regulatory clearances, with closing targeted for the first half of 2027. Boards at both companies have already approved it unanimously.
Grant Thornton Advisors announced Wednesday it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire CBIZ (NYSE: CBZ), a professional services firm listed on the New York Stock Exchange, in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of $5 billion. Under the terms of the deal, CBIZ shareholders will receive $55.00 per share, representing a 54% premium to the company’s 30-day volume-weighted average price and roughly an 18% premium to CBIZ’s most recent closing price. The transaction is described as the largest of its kind in more than 25 years.
The deal is backed by New Mountain Capital, which previously led a May 2024 investment in Grant Thornton Advisors and has now committed $5.2 billion in financing to support this acquisition as well. CBIZ’s board unanimously approved the transaction and is recommending shareholders vote in favor of it. Closing is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
A Genuine Industry Heavyweight
The combination reshapes the upper tier of the professional services industry. CBIZ currently ranks No. 8 on Accounting Today’s 2026 Top 100 Firms list with $2.8 billion in revenue, while Grant Thornton sits at No. 9 with $2.5 billion. Once combined, the merged firm is expected to become the fifth-largest professional services provider in the United States, generating more than $5 billion in domestic revenue and nearly $7.5 billion globally, operating across more than 20 countries with a workforce exceeding 34,500 professionals.
CBIZ President and CEO Jerry Grisko called it a historic combination with a strong cultural and strategic fit, framing the deal as one that creates new opportunity for employees while delivering significant value to shareholders.
What the Deal Is Actually Built Around
The stated strategic rationale centers on three areas: expanding Grant Thornton’s AI-enabled service delivery capabilities, growing its multinational footprint, and deepening industry specialization across both firms’ combined client base. As part of the restructuring, CBIZ’s Benefits and Insurance Services segment will be spun off as an independent, growth-oriented company, a signal that the combined entity intends to sharpen its focus on core advisory, tax, and accounting services rather than retain every existing business line.
The deal includes a go-shop period running through August 27, 2026, during which CBIZ may solicit superior competing proposals, alongside standard no-shop and termination provisions once that window closes. CBIZ’s board also adopted change-in-control severance, retention, and transaction bonus programs the same day the deal was announced, a customary step designed to retain key personnel through the transition.
The Numbers Behind the Timing
The announcement landed alongside CBIZ’s own second quarter results. For the first half of 2026, the company reported revenue of $1.53 billion, up modestly year over year, with net income rising 4.1% to $171.4 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share increasing 3.6% to $3.44. CBIZ also repurchased approximately 2.5 million shares for roughly $70 million during the period, while reducing net leverage to 3.4 times, down from the prior year.
Why This Matters Beyond Accounting
For investors tracking consolidation trends across professional and business services, this deal reinforces a pattern playing out broadly this year. Private equity-backed platforms are aggressively pursuing scale in fragmented service industries, betting that combining AI capability, specialized talent, and multinational reach creates durable competitive advantages that smaller, standalone firms increasingly struggle to match on their own.
View original content to download multimedia:
