Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Activation. Yesterday, The GEO Group announced the activation of its previously idle Big Spring Complex in Texas. The Big Spring Complex is expected to generate approximately $200 million in annual revenues for GEO in the first full year of operations. The announcement is the second contract update in the past week. Not only do these contracts reinforce GEO’s ability to help its government partners meet their needs, but they also suggest ICE detainee populations should continue to rise, in our view.
Details. The contract is a 10-year intergovernmental service agreement between the City of Big Springs, Texas, and ICE. The facilities include the 1,404-bed Flightline Facility and the 925-bed Cedar Hill Facility. GEO will provide support services at the Big Springs Complex, which are expected to include the exclusive use of the Facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and transportation services.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Contract. The GEO Group entered into a new 10-year contract for the continued provision of support services at the GEO-owned 1,635-bed Northwest ICE Processing Center located in Tacoma, Washington. The new 10-year contract is expected to generate approximately $140 million in annual revenues for GEO and continue through October 27, 2036. We believe this demonstrates the ongoing attractiveness of GEO’s assets for its government partners.
Services. Support services at the Northwest ICE Processing Center are expected to include security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and transportation services.
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BOCA RATON, Fla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Oct. 19, 2026– The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO” or the “Company”) announced today that it completed the redemption of all of the $650,000,000 in outstanding aggregate principal amount of its 8.625%Senior Secured Notes due 2029 (CUSIP Nos. 36162JAG1 and U32352AF0) (the “2029 Senior Secured Notes”) on October 15, 2026 (the “Redemption Date”).
The redemption price for the 2029 Senior Secured Notes was equal to $1,043.13 per $1,000.00 original principal amount, or approximately $678 million, plus any accrued and unpaid interest up to, but excluding, the Redemption Date. The Indenture governing the 2029 Senior Secured Notes has been discharged. Payment of the redemption price for the 2029 Senior Secured Notes was made through the Depository Trust Company.
On October 6, 2026, GEO previously announced the closing of an amendment to the Company’s Amended Credit Agreement to extend the maturity of its $550 million Revolving Credit Facility to July 14, 2031 and to increase the Company’s restricted payments capacity. As of October 19, 2026, GEO had no outstanding borrowings under its Revolving Credit Facility.
Following this amendment and the discharge of the Indenture governing the 2029 Senior Secured Notes, GEO is permitted to make unlimited restricted payments, including share repurchases, under the Amended Credit Agreement, to the extent the Company’s total leverage ratio (as defined therein) calculated on a pro forma basis after giving effect to such restricted payment would be equal to or less than 2.25 to 1.00 and no default exists thereunder. Additionally, under the Indenture governing the Company’s $625 million 10.25% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2031, GEO is permitted to make unlimited restricted payments, including share repurchases, to the extent the Company’s consolidated total leverage ratio (as defined therein) calculated on a pro forma basis after giving effect to such restricted payment would be equal to or less than 2.00 to 1.00 and no default exists thereunder. On October 5, 2026, GEO previously announced that its Board of Directors approved a $750 million increase to the Company’s share repurchase authorization program, which is effective through December 31, 2029, from $500 million to $1.25 billion.
Following the redemption of the 2029 Senior Secured Notes, GEO’s outstanding gross debt totaled $625 million as of October 19, 2026, excluding mortgage debt on the Company’s Headquarters building with current principal balance of approximately $36 million.
About The GEO Group
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 97 facilities totaling approximately 76,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees.
Use of forward-looking statements
This news release may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and any such forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in GEO’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission including its Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this news release and are based on current expectations and involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Readers are strongly encouraged to read the full cautionary statements and risk factors contained in GEO’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including those referenced above. GEO disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Debt Redemption. The GEO Group is redeeming all of its $650 million 8.625% Senior Secured Notes due in 2029. The redemption will be funded from net proceeds of the facility sale announced Monday. We view this as a significant positive for the Company, reducing outstanding debt, eliminating interest payments, and setting the Company up to be more aggressive in its share repurchase program.
Details. The redemption price for the 2029 Senior Secured Notes will be equal to $1,043.13 per $1,000.00 original principal amount, or approximately $678 million, plus any accrued and unpaid interest. GEO is receiving a net $705 million from the facility sale and had another $55 million of cash on the balance sheet as of June 30th. The redemption of the 2029 Senior Secured Notes will occur on October 15, 2026. GEO will save some $56 million in annual interest expense.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Transition. On Friday, CoreCivic announced that Patrick Swindle was stepping down as President and Chief Executive Officer due to health reasons. Mr. Swindle also resigned from CoreCivic’s Board. The Board named Lucibeth N. Mayberry as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company. Ms. Mayberry also joined the Board. We believe CoreCivic’s deep bench of executives should make this a seamless transition.
Ms. Mayberry’s Background. Ms. Mayberry has served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer since May 2025. From October 2022 to May 2025, Ms. Mayberry served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Innovation Officer. Prior to assuming that role, Ms. Mayberry served as Executive Vice President, Real Estate from May 2015 until October 2022. She has previously served in various roles at CoreCivic since May 2003, including as Vice President, Deputy Chief Development Officer; Vice President, Research, Contract and Proposals; and Managing Director, State Partnership Relations.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
ASR. CoreCivic has decided how to use a portion of the proceeds from the facilities sale, and it’s a $500 million Accelerated Share Repurchase program. The Company already used over $600 million of net proceeds to reduce debt, and increased share repurchases were a logical use of additional funds, in our opinion. Upon completion of the ASR Agreement, the Company anticipates that approximately $255.8 million of share repurchase authorization will remain available.
Details. The Company made a payment of $500 million to a financial institution on August 10, 2026, and expects to receive an initial delivery of approximately 12.4 million shares of CXW common stock (about 12.5% of the outstanding) from the financial institution, pursuant to the ASR Agreement. Based on Friday’s closing price, the initial 12.4 million shares would have used approximately $400 million of the $500 million.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Overview. As we highlighted in our First Look at CoreCivic’s operating results, the Company’s second quarter 2026 financial results exceeded management expectations, driven by lower operating costs and slightly higher populations from ICE. While the quarterly operating results were a positive in and of themselves, the major news came post-quarter’s end with the announcements of sales of four detention facilities to the Federal government for total gross proceeds of $2.2 billion and a net of approximately $1.6 billion. The Company remains in discussions with ICE for the potential sale of additional facilities, as well as for new contracts at existing and/or idle facilities.
Capital. With the facilities sold, the current capital structure has significantly changed. Net proceeds, after taxes and sale costs, were approximately $1.6 billion. The Company used $608.5 million to pay down debt, including $238.5 million of the 4.75% unsecured notes that will be repaid on August 12th. After income taxes and debt repayments, the Company will have approximately $1 billion of cash on hand, total debt outstanding of $739.1 million, and $553.3 million of borrowing capacity under the revolving credit facility.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Overview. GEO delivered better-than-expected performance in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting significant revenue growth from the contracts that the Company entered into throughout 2025. With recently signed new contracts and still significant idle capacity, we believe there remains substantial opportunity for additional increases in operating results.
2Q26 Results. Second quarter 2026 revenue was $732.1 million, up 15% y-o-y, and exceeding our $720 million projection. Adjusted EBITDA was up 20% to $142 million, or a 19.4% margin, and above our $129.3 million estimate. GEO reported 2Q26 net income attributable to GEO Operations of $47.5 million, or $0.36/sh, and $29.1 million, or $0.21/sh, in 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.37/sh, compared to $0.22/sh in 2Q25. We were at $0.28/sh for both.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
From Opportunity to Reality. Less than 48 hours after speaking of these potential opportunities (among a bunch of other opportunities), Kratos has been awarded a U.S. Army contract related to the Javelin Missile System, and Kratos partner Boeing announced it has been awarded a funding contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs that incorporate Kratos turbojet engines.
JDAM. The Air Force awarded Boeing a $75 million production contract to begin supplying long-range JDAMs. The long-range variant adds a Kratos TDI-J85 turbojet providing 200 pounds of thrust to enable jets to attack from a much safer distance. The 2027 National Defense Authorization Act includes about $277 million for 1,150 upgraded JDAM guidance tail kits with M-Code GPS for the legacy munitions. Industry experts note the new version will cost far less than more exquisite stand-off munitions, so they should be considered as an affordable mass capability, playing right into Kratos’ key strengths, in our opinion.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Overview. CoreCivic’s 2Q26 financial results exceeded management expectations, driven by lower operating costs and slightly higher populations from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Recent contracts at 4 facilities added $80.1 million to revenue and $20.1 million to operating income in the quarter. These facilities continue to be in various stages of activation.
2Q26 Results. Revenue increased 27.3% y-o-y to $684.9 million and was above our $618 million projection. Adjusted EBITDA was $109.4 million, compared to $103.3 million in 2Q25 and our $108.9 million estimate. Adjusted net income was $37.7 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, in 2Q26, compared with $39.7 million and $0.36, respectively, last year. We would note 2Q25 EPS benefited from $11.6 million, or $0.08 per share, of Employee Retention Credits, along with interest thereon, available under the CARES Act. Excluding the CARES Act benefit, 2Q26 adjusted EPS would have reflected more pronounced y-o-y growth.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Award. CoreCivic has been awarded a new contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to utilize the Company’s 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility located in Appleton, Minnesota, a facility that has been idle since 2010. Awards seem to be picking up once again, especially for previously idle facilities, suggesting to us that ICE is moving back to the tried-and-true detention operating model, with less focus on alternative detention models.
Impact. The new contract commences on August 11, 2026, for a term of five years. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Taking into account start-up activities and the phased commencement of intake operations, we currently expect an immaterial impact to earnings for the remainder of 2026. Once the facility is fully activated, management expects this facility to generate total annual revenue of approximately $75 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2027.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Contract. Hot on the heels of the Big Horn facility announcement, The GEO Group, Inc. has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the GEO-owned, 1,320-bed Rivers Facility in Winton, North Carolina. Yesterday’s announcement continues new award momentum, which we believe will continue into the second half of 2026.
Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $80 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the Facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Contract. The GEO Group has entered into a five-year support services contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 1,188-bed Big Horn Facility. GEO has entered into a lease agreement with the Facility owner. We view the new award positively and expect to see more such announcements going forward as ICE continues to seek out partners to assist the Agency in fulfilling its mission.
Details. The support services contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, excluding transportation revenue. GEO’s support services are expected to include the exclusive use of the facility by ICE, along with security, maintenance, and food services, as well as access to recreational amenities, medical care, and legal counsel.
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