Trump Suggests Using Trade Penalties to Pressure Support for Greenland Plan

President Donald Trump said Friday that he may impose new tariffs on foreign countries as part of an aggressive effort to pressure allies into supporting U.S. acquisition of Greenland, once again turning to trade penalties as a geopolitical bargaining tool.

Speaking at the White House during a health care–related event, Trump framed Greenland as a national security imperative and suggested tariffs could be used against countries that resist his ambitions. “We need Greenland for national security,” Trump said. “So I may do that. I may put a tariff on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland.”

The comments mark a significant escalation in Trump’s long-running interest in acquiring the Arctic territory, which is an autonomous region of Denmark. While the U.S. already maintains a military base on the island, Trump has increasingly argued that outright ownership is necessary to counter growing influence from China and Russia in the Arctic.

The White House did not immediately clarify which countries could be targeted by the proposed tariffs or what form they might take. However, Trump’s remarks signal that trade policy may once again be deployed as leverage in diplomatic disputes, even those involving close U.S. allies.

Trump’s tariff threat comes amid mounting legal uncertainty surrounding his broader trade agenda. The president has dramatically expanded the use of tariffs since returning to office, pushing the average U.S. tariff rate to an estimated 17%. Many of these levies were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a move that has been repeatedly challenged in court.

Multiple lower courts have ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA, and the issue is now before the Supreme Court. A ruling from the high court could come soon and may determine whether the administration can continue imposing wide-ranging tariffs without congressional approval. Trump has warned that his economic agenda would be severely undermined if the court rules against him.

The Greenland comments also follow Trump’s recent use of tariff threats to pressure foreign governments on pharmaceutical pricing. The president has argued that U.S. drug prices should be aligned with lower prices paid overseas and said he warned foreign leaders to raise their prices or face steep tariffs on all exports to the United States.

“I’ve done it on drugs,” Trump said Friday. “I may do it for Greenland too.”

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly rejected the idea of a sale or transfer of sovereignty. Following meetings in Washington this week with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a delegation from Greenland and Denmark said they maintain a “fundamental disagreement” with the president’s position.

Trump has also previously suggested that the U.S. is weighing multiple options to secure Greenland, including economic pressure and, in extreme rhetoric, military considerations. Those statements have alarmed European allies and raised concerns about the long-term implications for NATO unity.

As the Supreme Court weighs the legality of Trump’s tariff powers and global trade partners respond to mounting uncertainty, the president’s Greenland push underscores how central tariffs have become to his foreign policy strategy. Whether the tactic yields concessions—or further strains alliances—may soon be tested.

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Some Model Refinements


Friday, January 16, 2026

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Model Refinements. Pre fourth quarter earnings, we went over our model and made some modest adjustments, as well as incorporated 2026 quarterly estimates. With the strong new contract awards in 2025, increased detention populations, and potential for additional awards in 2026, we believe CoreCivic is well positioned to post strong 2026 full year results.

Populations Continue to Rise. Overall, the ICE detainee population continues to increase, hitting just under 69,000 at year-end. This is up from approximately 39,000 at the end of 2024. We expect to see ICE detainee populations continue to increase over the course of 2026 as ICE brings on additional enforcement personnel. Increased populations bode well for CoreCivic.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – Expansion of Services


Tuesday, December 23, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Award. GEO Group’s BI subsidiary has been awarded a contract by ICE for the provision of skip tracing services. Skip tracing services entail enhanced location research with identifiable information, commercial data verification, and physical observation to verify current address information and investigate alternative address information for individuals on the federal government’s non-detained docket. We view the announcement favorably and continue to believe there will be additional business to follow from ICE and GEO’s other government partners.

Details. The new contract has a term of two years, with an initial term of one year, effective  December 16, 2025, and an additional one-year period. The estimated revenue value of the two-year contract is up to approximately  $121 million. The format appears similar to the recent ISAP award won by BI, in our view.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – NobleCon21: Growth and More Growth Potential


Monday, December 08, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon21. We had the pleasure of hosting GEO CEO David Donahue at NobleCon21. Management spoke about the significant opportunity and growth in the secure services business for ICE and growth opportunities in the other businesses. A replay of the presentation can be found at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-geo-group-noblecon21-presentation-replay.

ICE. Just 1.5% of the nearly 17 million estimated total alien population in the U.S. is currently being managed, providing significant growth opportunity both in the secure services business as well as under the ISAP program. ICE’s goal remains for 100,000 beds. The current ICE population is over 65,000.


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CoreCivic Announces Expansion of Revolving Credit Facility By $300 Million

December 2, 2025

BRENTWOOD, Tenn., Dec. 02, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) (“CoreCivic” or the “Company”) announced today that it has entered into a First Amendment to its Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement to, among other things, increase the size of the “accordion” feature that provides for uncommitted incremental extensions of credit from $200 million to $300 million, and to exercise the full allotment by expanding the capacity under the Revolving Credit Facility from $275 million to $575 million effective December 1, 2025 (the “Amendment”). The Company currently has outstanding borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility of $165.0 million. Including outstanding letters of credit of $18.6 million and following the Amendment, the Company currently has additional borrowing capacity of $391.4 million.

David M. Garfinkle, CoreCivic’s Chief Financial Officer, commented, “As expressed on our last earnings call, with recent contract awards the Company is forecasting significant increases in revenues and cash flows going into 2026 and 2027. Expanding the size of our Revolving Credit Facility provides us with enhanced balance sheet flexibility while remaining positioned for strategic investments and long-term value creation, such as through our recently expanded buyback authorization.” Garfinkle continued, “I would like to thank the banks that participate in our bank credit facility. We are pleased to have such supportive banking relationships.”

Graham (GHM) – A Solid 2Q26


Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. Graham put up solid results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The Company executed well across all the business lines, driving broad based-growth. Demand across the end markets remains healthy, and the Defense and Space markets continue to see robust activity.

2Q26 Results.  Revenue grew 23% to $66 million, driven by solid performance across all end markets. We were at $59 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.3 million, up 12% from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 9.5%. We had forecasted $6.2 million and 10.4%. Net income for the quarter was $0.28 per diluted share, and adjusted net income was $0.31 per diluted share. We were at $0.30 and $0.32, respectively.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – Solid Performance; Attractive Entry Point


Monday, November 10, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. GEO Group reported 3Q25 results at or above expectations, excluding one-time impacts. Nonetheless, the shares sold off on concerns about the pace of detentions and uncertain additional facility activations. Notably, since the beginning of the year, GEO has entered into new or expanded contracts that represent over $460 million in new incremental annualized revenues that are already under contract and are expected to normalize in 2026. This represents the largest amount of new business the Company has won in a single year in its history.

3Q25 Results. Revenue of $682.3 million rose 13.1% y-o-y. We were at $650 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $120.1 million, or a 17.6% margin compared to $118.6 million, or a 19.7% margin. GAAP EPS was impacted by a $232.4 million gain from the sale of Lawton and a $37.7 million non-cash charge in connection with litigation. Adjusted EPS was $0.25 versus $0.21 last year and our $0.22 estimate.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Attractive Risk/Reward Opportunity


Monday, November 10, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. With four new contracts during the quarter, CoreCivic made substantial progress in contracting to use a significant portion of its idle facility capacity in the quarter. The four new contracts effective in the third quarter are expected to generate approximately $320 million of annual revenue once the facilities achieve stabilized occupancy. Notably, CoreCivic’s detention populations and revenues have been unaffected by the government shutdown.

3Q25 Results. Revenue of $580.4 million rose 18.1% y-o-y, driven by increased populations. We were at $550 million. CoreCivic recorded adjusted EBITDA of $88.8 million, up 6.6% y-o-y, but slightly below our $91.8 million estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.24, up 26.3% y-o-y and in-line with our $0.27 estimate. Normalized FFO was $0.48, up 11.6% y-o-y and in-line with our $0.48 estimate.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look at Third Quarter 2025


Thursday, November 06, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q25 Results. Revenue of $580.1 million was up 18.1% y-o-y and exceeded our $550.6 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $88.8 million, up 6.6% y-o-y and just below our $91.7 million estimate. Net income totaled $26.3 million, or $0.24/sh, compared to $21.1 million, or $0.19/sh, last year. We were at $0.27/sh. CoreCivic is benefiting from ongoing demand for its services across its government partners, but particularly ICE.

ICE. ICE revenue increased 54.6% y-o-y to $215.9 million. With law enforcement as an essential government service, the extended government shutdown is not impacting detention populations or revenues. CoreCivic began receiving ICE populations at the newly reopened California City and West Tennessee facilities late in the third quarter, with stabilized occupancy expected during 1Q26.


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Graham (GHM) – A Tuck In Acquisition


Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

An Acquisition. Yesterday, after the market close, Graham announced the acquisition of certain specified assets of Xdot Bearing Technologies (“Xdot”), a specialized consulting, design, and engineering firm focused on foil bearing technology. While the acquisition price was not revealed, Graham noted Xdot has annual sales of approximately $1 million and is expected to be slightly accretive to the Company’s fiscal year 2026 GAAP net income.

Xdot. Xdot has developed and patented a breakthrough foil bearing design that delivers superior performance while lowering development and production costs. Xdot’s products are complementary to the existing product portfolio of Graham’s Barber-Nichols (BN) subsidiary and will expand capabilities within BN. Notably, Dr. Erik Swanson, Founder, President, and Chief Engineer of Xdot is a world renowned expert in foil bearing analysis, application, and fabrication and will join the BN team upon closing.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights


Monday, October 13, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noble Virtual Conference. CoreCivic CFO David Garfinkle and Managing Director of Investor Relations Jeb Bachmann presented at the Noble Virtual Conference. Highlights included increased demand, long-term trends, and return of capital. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/corecivic-cxw-noble-capital-markets-virtual-conference-replay-october-2025.

Market Share. CoreCivic remains the largest non-government owner of correctional and detention real estate in the U.S., owning approximately 57% of all privately owned correctional and detention capacity. The Company manages approximately 41% of all privately managed correctional and detention capacity.


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V2X (VVX) – Some More Awards


Thursday, October 02, 2025

V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Awards. V2X has been the recipient of new awards, including one focused on extending the life-cycle of existing platforms and another driving connectivity and communications. In total, the three new awards total over $580 million of contract value, assuming all funds are spent. We view the recent wins as further confirmation of V2X’s ability to provide full mission lifecycle solutions.

Center Display Units. V2X’s Vertex Modernization and Sustainment unit was awarded by the Air Force a five-year ID/IQ contract with a single five-year option (10 years total) with a contract ceiling of $425 million for center display units (CDU), according to the Department of War’s daily contract awards. V2X will supply the Air Force with the following hardware during this period: CDU full kits, CDU line replaceable units, CDU shop replaceable units, and various other support hardware as required.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – An Award for Diamondback


Thursday, October 02, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Diamondback. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced it was awarded a new contract under an Intergovernmental Services Agreement between the Oklahoma Department of Corrections and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to resume operations at the Company’s 2,160-bed Diamondback Correctional Facility, a facility that has been idle since 2010.

Details. The new contract commenced on September 30, 2025, for a term of five years and may be extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $100 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the first quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2026.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.