The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
USMS Contract. The GEO Group, through its GEO Transport subsidiary, has entered into a new 5-year contract, including option periods, with the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) for the provision of secure transportation and contract detention officer services across three service regions covering 26 federal judicial districts and spanning 14 states. The new contract highlights the Company’s diversified service platform, in our view, which provides the Company with numerous growth avenues.
Impact. The new contract is expected to generate up to approximately $147 million over the five-year period, or up to approximately $29 million in annualized revenues per full-year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Managed-Only services contracts, which average approximately 15%.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Award. Kratos was awarded a $25 million task order under the Command and Control System-Consolidated Sustainment and Resiliency contract with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command to support ground system capabilities for Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS). The ESS system will provide the survivable and endurable satellite communications capability for the Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications mission in all operational environments.
Details. The task order has a 34-month period of performance, which began on March 14th and will conclude on November 30, 2027. This was accomplished under the C-SAR single-award indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awarded to Kratos on November 15, 2023. The C-SAR IDIQ contract has a maximum value of $579 million to cover task/delivery orders to support operations, sustainment, enhancements, and constellation capacity.
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Key Points: – Small-cap defense companies operate in specialized sectors with higher agility and acquisition potential compared to mega-cap contractors – Cybersecurity, drone systems, and advanced materials offer the strongest growth opportunities in current geopolitical climate – Market volatility creates entry opportunities before institutional recognition drives valuations higher
While major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman capture headlines during geopolitical tensions, astute small-cap investors should turn their attention to the lesser-known defense players positioned to benefit from increased military spending and technological innovation. Small-cap defense companies often operate in specialized niches that make them indispensable to larger prime contractors and government agencies, and unlike their mega-cap counterparts, these firms can pivot quickly to emerging threats and technologies, making them attractive acquisition targets or compelling long-term growth stories.
The current geopolitical climate, highlighted by recent Middle East tensions and ongoing global conflicts, has created a sustained tailwind for defense spending. President Trump’s pledge of a $1 trillion defense budget, while potentially falling short in fiscal 2026, signals a multi-year commitment to military modernization that extends far beyond traditional weapons systems. This environment particularly benefits small-cap companies specializing in cybersecurity and electronic warfare, where firms focusing on cyber defense, electronic countermeasures, and signal intelligence are experiencing unprecedented demand. These companies often possess proprietary technologies that are difficult to replicate and command premium margins, creating substantial competitive advantages.
The drone revolution presents another compelling opportunity, extending beyond consumer applications into military reconnaissance, logistics, and combat operations. Small-cap manufacturers of specialized UAV components, software, and support systems are capturing market share from traditional aerospace giants, while companies developing next-generation materials for armor, stealth applications, and extreme environment operations often fly under the radar while generating substantial returns for early investors.
When evaluating small-cap defense opportunities, successful investors focus on companies with government contract diversification across multiple agencies and international allies to reduce single-customer risk. The most attractive investments typically feature proprietary technology through patents and specialized expertise that create competitive moats justifying premium valuations. Experienced management teams with deep defense industry connections and security clearances consistently accelerate contract wins, while financial discipline demonstrated through strong balance sheets and consistent cash flow generation proves crucial despite the lumpy nature of contract timing.
Small-cap defense investing requires careful risk assessment, as government budget cycles, security clearance requirements, and regulatory compliance create unique challenges. However, companies that successfully navigate these hurdles often enjoy sustained competitive advantages and multi-year revenue visibility that reward patient investors. The current environment of elevated geopolitical tensions, combined with technological disruption in warfare, creates an ideal backdrop for small-cap defense investments. While large-cap names grab immediate attention during crisis periods, the real long-term value creation often occurs in the innovative small companies that power the next generation of military capabilities. Smart investors should use market volatility as an opportunity to build positions in quality small-cap defense names before institutional recognition drives valuations higher.
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Acquisition. CoreCivic is expanding its Safety Segment with the proposed acquisition of The Farmville Detention Center in Farmville, Virginia, about 60 miles west of Richmond. Constructed in 2010, Farmville is a 736-bed facility that provides transportation, care, and civil detention services to adult male noncitizens through an Intergovernmental Service Agreement between Prince Edward County, Virginia, and U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement (“ICE”), which expires in March 2029.
Details. CoreCivic is paying $67 million for Farmville, or about $91,000 per bed. The transaction is expected to be funded with cash on hand and borrowings under the Company’s revolving credit facility. The acquisition is expected to close effective July 1st and will add approximately $40 million of incremental revenue on an annual basis. Using the Safety segment’s average 2024 operating margin, Farmville could add nearly $10 million of segment operating income on an annual basis.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Favorable Adelanto Outcome. The GEO Group received some more good news yesterday with the U.S. District Court, Central District of California, approving a settlement that allows for immediate full intake at GEO’s 1,940-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center in California. Recall, previous court rulings had limited the use of Adelanto based on the then prevailing COVID-19 conditions.
Another Uplift. Under a January 20025 ruling, the Court had allowed the facility to increase its population cap to 475 detainees. At full occupancy and under the current contract, GEO would see an uplift in revenue of some $31 million, with margins consistent with other Company-owned Secure Service facilities. Adding in Monday’s D. Ray James announcement, GEO could be looking at $100 million of additional revenue and approximately $26 million of net operating income on an annual basis.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q25 Results. Revenue rose 21% to $59.3 million versus $49.1 million in 4Q24 and our $56 million estimate. Gross margin was up 110 basis points to 27%. We were at 25%. Graham reported adjusted EBITDA of $7.65 million, up 159% y-o-y, and above our $5.4 million projection. GAAP and adjusted EPS were $0.40 and $0.43, respectively, compared to $0.12 and $0.15, respectively, last year. We were at $0.26 and $0.26.
Business Environment. Graham’s business environment remains favorable, as evidenced by the recent follow on Navy award. Increased Defense budgets and being in the right space should lead to additional revenue from the Defense sector. Space and Energy continue to have positive futures also, in our opinion.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Lawton Sale. The GEO Group announced it has entered into a purchase agreement to sell its Company-owned Lawton, OK, facility to the Oklahoma Department of Corrections for $312 million. This is one of two facilities GEO management had indicated were up for sale. The sale is expected to close by the end of July 2025.
Value Affirming. The Lawton sale re-affirms our belief in the value of GEO’s real estate assets, a value that significantly exceeds the current stock price. Based on the reported 2,682 beds, the purchase price is equivalent to $116,000/bd. With some 43,000 owned beds in the Safety segment alone, the potential value of the segment real estate would be $5 billion. We do not expect the sale to have a significant impact on reported EBITDA.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Increased Demand. As regular readers know, CoreCivic has seen increased demand for its services from ICE. The Company already has received new awards for beds and expects to re-open currently idled facilities for ICE. Increased occupancy could drive significant earnings growth. Occupancy in 1Q25 was 77%, still below the low 80% range in 2018/19. The Company showed various illustrative potential for increased demand that could add $73-$131 million of additional NOI.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
BOCA RATON, Fla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Jun. 5, 2025– The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO” or the “Company”) announced today that it has entered into a purchase agreement with the Oklahoma Department of Corrections for the sale of the GEO-owned Lawton Correctional Facility (the “Facility”) located in Lawton, Oklahoma for $312 million.
The sale of the Facility is expected to close on July 25, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, and GEO expects to transition Facility operations to the Oklahoma Department of Corrections simultaneously on July 25, 2025. GEO expects to use the net proceeds from the sale of the Facility to pay down debt and for general corporate purposes.
George C. Zoley, Executive Chairman of GEO, said, “The sale of our Company-owned Lawton Correctional Facility is expected to be a significant deleveraging event for our Company. We believe that this important transaction is representative of the intrinsic value of our Company-owned facilities, which total more than 52,000 beds. Our Management Team and Board of Directors remain focused on the disciplined allocation of capital to enhance long-term value for our shareholders.”
About The GEO Group The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 98 facilities totaling approximately 77,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Use of forward-looking statements This news release may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and any such forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in GEO’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission including its Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this news release and are based on current expectations and involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Readers are strongly encouraged to read the full cautionary statements and risk factors contained in GEO’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including those referenced above. GEO disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
SAN DIEGO, June 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (Nasdaq: KTOS), a Technology Company in the Defense, National Security and Global Markets, and GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) today announced a formal teaming agreement to advance propulsion technologies for the next generation of affordable unmanned aerial systems and Collaborative Combat Aircraft-type (CCA-type) aircraft.
Eric DeMarco, President and CEO of Kratos, said, “Kratos’ strategically important Teaming Agreement with GE Aerospace continues to rapidly advance and expand, with the GEK family of engines targeting certain of the most important, mission critical and highest priority needs and requirements of United States National Security. At Kratos, affordability is a technology and delivering more capability for less cost as quickly as possible are key contributions we are bringing for truly industry leading GEK offerings with our partner and global leader GE Aerospace.”
“The formalization of this teaming agreement and initiation of development of these new engines mark another step forward in our dedication to providing affordable, adaptable, high-performance propulsion systems for the future force,” said Amy Gowder, President and CEO of Defense & Systems at GE Aerospace. “We’re thrilled to continue our collaboration with Kratos and accelerate development across various classes of unmanned systems.”
This collaboration strengthens Kratos’ ongoing partnership with GE Aerospace – building on last year’s Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to advance the development and production of small, cost-effective engines for unmanned platforms. The new teaming agreement expands on that MOU and provides the framework for the two companies to develop, manufacture, test, and field the GEK800 Engine, as well as collaborate on other low-cost expendable turbofan engines.
In addition to the joint work on the GEK800, the companies have commenced work on another new engine, the GEK1500. The engines under development support unmanned aerial systems (UAS), collaborative combat aircraft, and similar applications, positioning Kratos and GE Aerospace to offer affordable mass propulsion solutions across a range of next-generation defense applications for the Department of Defense.
Kratos brings more than 20 years of experience developing and producing small, affordable engines for UAS, drones, and missile platforms. GE Aerospace adds a century of expertise in propulsion technology and the ability to scale advanced designs into high-rate production —helping bridge the gap from prototype to deployment.
About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS) is a technology, products, system and software company addressing the defense, national security, and commercial markets. Kratos makes true internally funded research, development, capital and other investments, to rapidly develop, produce and field solutions that address our customers’ mission critical needs and requirements. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we seek to utilize proven, leading edge approaches and technology, not unproven bleeding edge approaches or technology, with Kratos’ approach designed to reduce cost, schedule and risk, enabling us to be first to market with cost effective solutions. We believe that Kratos is known as an innovative disruptive change agent in the industry, a company that is an expert in designing products and systems up front for successful rapid, large quantity, low-cost future manufacturing which is a value add competitive differentiator for our large traditional prime system integrator partners and also to our government and commercial customers. Kratos intends to pursue program and contract opportunities as the prime or lead contractor when we believe that our probability of win (PWin) is high and any investment required by Kratos is within our capital resource comfort level. We intend to partner and team with a large, traditional system integrator when our assessment of PWin is greater or required investment is beyond Kratos’ comfort level. Kratos’ primary business areas include virtualized ground systems for satellites and space vehicles including software for command & control (C2) and telemetry, tracking and control (TT&C), jet powered unmanned aerial drone systems, advanced vehicles and rocket systems, propulsion systems for drones, missiles, loitering munitions, supersonic systems, space craft and launch systems, C5ISR and microwave electronic products for missile, radar, missile defense, space, satellite, counter UAS, directed energy, communication and other systems, and virtual & augmented reality training systems for the warfighter. For more information, visit www.KratosDefense.com.
About GE Aerospace GE Aerospace is a global aerospace propulsion, services, and systems leader with an installed base of approximately 45,000 commercial and 25,000 military aircraft engines. With a global team of approximately 53,000 employees building on more than a century of innovation and learning, GE Aerospace is committed to inventing the future of flight, lifting people up, and bringing them home safely. Learn more about how GE Aerospace and its partners are defining flight for today, tomorrow, and the future at www.geaerospace.com.
Notice Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this press release may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are made on the basis of the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of the management of Kratos and are subject to significant risks and uncertainty. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Kratos undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Although Kratos believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, these statements involve many risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from what may be expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. For a further discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed in these forward-looking statements, as well as risks relating to the business of Kratos in general, see the risk disclosures in the Annual Report on Form 10-K of Kratos for the year ended December 29, 2024, and in subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K and other filings made with the SEC by Kratos.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Enter Negotiations for Extension. On Friday, it was announced the government intends to enter into negotiations with GEO’s BI subsidiary for a one year extension of the ISAP program, which is currently effective through July 31, 2025. We would view an extension of this program as a significant positive for GEO in both the near-term and longer term.
A Positive Future? Acknowledging Friday’s release is limited to extending the current contract for a year, the verbiage used by the government contracting agency highlights the moat GEO has built around the business, suggesting the Company should be in the catbird’s seat for a longer term renewal. For example, the government states, “Market research conducted by the Office of Acquisition Management revealed that there is only one responsible source because the current contractor is uniquely positioned to maintain existing operations of the program without transitioning active program participants between contractor solutions.”
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Award. Yesterday, Graham announced that its Barber-Nichols subsidiary was awarded a $136.5 million follow-on contract to support the U.S. Navy’s Virginia Class Submarine program. This new award strengthens Graham’s position as a critical supplier to the U.S. Navy’s undersea programs.
Details. The contract period of performance extends from April 2025 through February 2034. Graham recognized approximately $50 million in backlog from the contract during the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025 to procure long-lead-time materials. As a reminder, the backlog at the end of the fiscal third quarter totaled $384.7 million, just below a record high.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
U.S. oil production is approaching a turning point, according to Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice. In a letter to shareholders this week, Stice warned that domestic output has likely peaked and will begin to decline in the coming months, citing falling crude prices and slowing industry activity as key factors.
“U.S. onshore oil production has likely peaked and will begin to decline this quarter,” Stice wrote. “We are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices.”
The warning comes as U.S. crude prices have dropped roughly 17% this year, weighed down by fears of a global economic slowdown tied to President Donald Trump’s renewed tariffs and an aggressive supply push from OPEC+ producers. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude briefly surged 4% on Tuesday to $59.56 per barrel amid expectations that U.S. supply will tighten.
Stice emphasized that adjusted for inflation, oil is now cheaper than it has been in nearly every quarter since 2004—excluding the pandemic collapse in 2020. That pricing reality, he said, is forcing producers to slash spending and slow operations, threatening broader economic impacts.
Diamondback, a major producer in the Permian Basin and one of the largest independent oil companies in the U.S., has already reduced its capital spending by $400 million for the year. The company now plans to drill between 385 to 435 wells and complete 475 to 550, while maintaining reduced rig and crew levels.
“We’ve dropped three rigs and one completion crew, and expect to stay at those levels for most of Q3,” Stice said.
The U.S. shale boom of the last 15 years helped make the country the world’s top fossil fuel producer, outpacing even Saudi Arabia and Russia. That shift reshaped the U.S. economy, reduced reliance on foreign energy, and strengthened national security. But Stice now warns that this progress is at risk.
“Today’s prices, volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty have put this progress in jeopardy,” he said.
Fracking activity is already falling sharply. The number of completion crews is down 15% nationwide and 20% in the Permian Basin since January, Stice said. Oil-directed drilling rigs are expected to drop nearly 10% by the end of Q2, with further declines projected in the third quarter.
Adding to the pressure are rising costs tied to tariffs. Stice said Trump’s steel tariffs have added around $40 million annually to Diamondback’s expenses, raising well costs by about 1%. While some of this impact may be offset by operational efficiencies, the CEO warned that sustaining current output levels at lower prices may no longer be financially viable.
Stice likened the situation to approaching a red light while driving: “We are taking our foot off the accelerator. If the light turns green, we’ll hit the gas again—but we’re prepared to brake if needed.”
As the U.S. energy sector confronts an increasingly uncertain landscape, the prospect of declining domestic production is no longer just a possibility—it’s becoming a reality.
