Release – Kratos Awarded $61.1 Million Navy Contract Modification for Full-Rate Production of 70 BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Targets and Equipment

February 25, 2026

SAN DIEGO, Feb. 25, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS), a leader in defense, national security and global markets, announced today that it has been awarded a $61,068,139 modification to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N0001923C0021) by the U.S. Navy. This contract modification exercises options to procure full-rate production Lot Seven for 70 of the BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Targets, along with 70 Rocket-Assisted Takeoff (RATO) attachment kits and associated technical and administrative data. The systems will support weapons system test and evaluation and fleet training requirements for the U.S. Navy.

“Achieving full-rate production of the BQM-177A reflects the Navy’s continued confidence in Kratos’ ability to deliver reliable, high-performance aerial target systems at scale,” said Steve Fendley, President of Kratos Unmanned Systems Division. “This award underscores our commitment to providing affordable, mission-relevant unmanned systems that directly support Navy training, test, and evaluation requirements while maintaining production readiness for future demand. As with all previous awards or modifications, the exercise of this final option is at the maximum negotiated production quantity of seventy aircraft resulting in a total contract value of $238,798,157. In anticipation of further full rate production contracts, Kratos is continuing to invest in capital production improvements that will further improve either our capacity or efficiency.”

The BQM-177A is a subsonic, surface-launched aerial target designed to support realistic threat representation for advanced weapons testing and fleet training operations.

Work under the contract is expected to be performed in the following locations (with the expected share of the work): Sacramento, California (50%); Dallas, Texas (20%); Fort Walton Beach, Florida (5%); Blacksburg, Virginia (4%); Santa Ana, California (2%); Newton, Kansas (2%); Concord, California (2%); Milwaukie, Oregon (2%); Chatsworth, California (2%); and various other locations within the continental United States (11%). The contract is expected to be completed in August 2028.

About Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS) is a technology, products, system and software company addressing the defense, national security, and commercial markets. Kratos makes true internally funded research, development, capital and other investments, to rapidly develop, produce and field solutions that address our customers’ mission critical needs and requirements. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we seek to utilize proven, leading edge approaches and technology, not unproven bleeding edge approaches or technology, with Kratos’ approach designed to reduce cost, schedule and risk, enabling us to be first to market with cost effective solutions. We believe that Kratos is known as an innovative disruptive change agent in the industry, a company that is an expert in designing products and systems up front for successful rapid, large quantity, low-cost future manufacturing which is a value add competitive differentiator for our large traditional prime system integrator partners and also to our government and commercial customers. Kratos intends to pursue program and contract opportunities as the prime or lead contractor when we believe that our probability of win (PWin) is high and any investment required by Kratos is within our capital resource comfort level. We intend to partner and team with a large, traditional system integrator when our assessment of PWin is greater or required investment is beyond Kratos’ comfort level. Kratos’ primary business areas include virtualized ground systems for satellites and space vehicles including software for command & control (C2) and telemetry, tracking and control (TT&C), jet powered unmanned aerial drone systems, advanced vehicles and rocket systems, propulsion systems for drones, missiles, loitering munitions, supersonic systems, space craft and launch systems, C5ISR and microwave electronic products for missile, radar, missile defense, space, satellite, counter UAS, directed energy, communication and other systems, and virtual & augmented reality training systems for the warfighter. For more information, visit www.KratosDefense.com.

Notice Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are made on the basis of the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of the management of Kratos and are subject to significant risks and uncertainty. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Kratos undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Although Kratos believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, these statements involve many risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from what may be expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. For a further discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed in these forward-looking statements, as well as risks relating to the business of Kratos in general, see the risk disclosures in the Annual Report on Form 10-K of Kratos for the year ended December 28, 2025, and in subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K and other filings made with the SEC by Kratos.

Press Contact:
Claire Cantrell
claire.cantrell@kratosdefense.com

Investor Information:
877-934-4687
investor@kratosdefense.com

Strait of Hormuz Partially Closed as Iran Holds Nuclear Talks with U.S.

Iran on Tuesday announced a partial and temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important oil chokepoints, as the country conducts military drills in the waterway. The move comes as Tehran and the United States hold renewed nuclear negotiations in Geneva, raising tensions across global energy markets.

According to Iranian state media, the closure is tied to a Revolutionary Guard exercise described as a “Smart Control” drill aimed at strengthening operational readiness and reinforcing deterrence capabilities. Officials characterized the move as precautionary and temporary, designed to ensure shipping safety during live-fire activities in designated areas of the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but critical passage linking oil producers in the Middle East with key markets in Asia, Europe, and beyond. Roughly 13 million barrels per day of crude oil passed through the waterway in 2025, accounting for approximately 31% of global seaborne crude flows, according to market intelligence firm Kpler. Any disruption — even a short-term one — carries significant implications for global energy security and oil price stability.

Markets reacted swiftly to the news, though the response was measured. Oil prices initially climbed on fears of supply interruptions but later pared gains as reports indicated that shipping delays would likely be minimal and temporary. Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $67.48 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.4% to $62.65.

Shipping industry representatives suggested the impact would likely be limited. The live-fire exercise overlaps with part of the inbound traffic lane of the strait’s Traffic Separation Scheme, prompting vessels to avoid the area for several hours. Given heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, commercial shipping operators are expected to comply fully with Iranian guidance to minimize risk.

The timing of the maneuver is particularly significant. It marks the first partial shutdown of the strait since January, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened potential military action against Tehran. The renewed nuclear discussions in Geneva are aimed at resolving long-standing disputes over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian officials indicated that both sides reached an understanding on certain guiding principles during the talks, though substantial work remains before any formal agreement is achieved.

Energy markets remain sensitive to developments in the region. The combination of diplomatic negotiations and visible military positioning has heightened uncertainty, even as oil supply continues to flow. While Tuesday’s closure appears temporary and controlled, it serves as a reminder of how quickly geopolitical risks can ripple through commodity markets.

For investors and policymakers, the episode reinforces a broader truth: chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz represent both physical and psychological pressure points in the global energy system. Even limited disruptions can trigger volatility, particularly when layered on top of fragile diplomatic dynamics.

As negotiations continue, traders will closely monitor shipping flows, military activity, and official statements from both Tehran and Washington. In a world where energy markets remain tightly interconnected, stability in the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional concern — it is a global one.

The GEO Group (GEO) – Solid 4Q25 Results


Tuesday, February 17, 2026

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. The GEO Group reported solid fourth quarter operating results. The census across the Company’s active ICE facilities have continued to steadily increase from the third quarter at approximately 22,000 to presently approximately 24,000, which is the highest level of ICE populations in the Company’s history. Mix change in the ISAP program could lead to higher revenue, even with relatively stable populations.

4Q25 Results. Revenue of $707.7 million was above our $665 million estimate and is up 16.5% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025 was approximately $126 million, up from approximately $108 million reported for the prior year’s fourth quarter. We were at $120 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.25 compared to $0.13 in 4Q24.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – A Strong End to the Year


Tuesday, February 17, 2026

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. CoreCivic reported a strong 4Q25, with management revenue from U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE), CXW’s largest government partner, more than doubling from the fourth quarter of 2024. Revenue from state customers increased 5.0% y-o-y. CoreCivic’s balance sheet remains strong, ending the quarter with leverage, measured as net debt to adjusted EBITDA, at 2.8x for the trailing twelve months.

4Q25 Results. Revenue was $603.9 million, up from $479.3 million in 4Q24 and our $595.8 million estimate, driven by higher populations. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $92.5 million, compared to $74.2 million last year and our $80.9 million projection. Adjusted EPS was $0.27 versus $0.16 last year.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Thoughts on Current Environment


Friday, February 06, 2026

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Environment. The current operating environment remains charged, as evidenced by the daily news. Nonetheless, we would point out that a key platform of the Trump Administration remains illegal immigration, and we do not expect that to change. Funding remains available under The One Big Beautiful Bill. And, historically, enforcement operations remain ongoing even in the face of a government shutdown.

Less New Awards Than Anticipated. The pace of new awards has been less than we had expected over the past few months. Whether this is just a temporary pause due to the significant number of new awards in 2025, the most recent new contract for GEO was the December skip tracing services contract worth up to $121 million of revenue over a two year period.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Graham (GHM) – Adds a Third Pillar


Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

An Acquisition. Graham has acquired FlackTek, a pioneer in advanced mixing and material processing solutions. The acquisition adds advanced materials processing as a third core platform for Graham, alongside Graham Manufacturing, specializing in vacuum & heat transfer, and Barber-Nichols, specializing in turbomachinery. FlackTek adds a proven and defensible product portfolio with a shared customer base and an installed footprint that extends across the full value chain, from upstream to downstream production and quality control.

Details. The purchase price is $35 million, which was paid 85% in cash and 15% using 75,818 GHM shares. There is a potential $25 million in future performance-based cash earnouts over 4 years based upon achieving progressively increasing adjusted EBITDA performance targets. The base purchase price is approximately 12x FlackTek’s projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA. FlackTek generates approximately $30 million in annualized revenue.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – Expansion of Credit Facility


Monday, January 26, 2026

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Credit Facility. The GEO Group amended its Credit Agreement, increasing GEO’s revolving credit facility to $550 million from a prior $450 million. The increase was effective as of January 20th. The increase provides the Company with additional financial flexibility, in our view, to further invest in growth opportunities and/or increase the share repurchase activity.

Share Repurchases. Recall, back in November, GEO announced an expansion of its share repurchase authorization to $500  million and extended the expiration date to  December 31, 2029. As of  November 6, 2025, the Company had approximately $458 million of repurchase authorization available under the share repurchase program. At the current price, the $100 million, if all used to repurchase shares, would further reduce the share count by approximately 5.38 million shares.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Trump Walks Back Europe Tariffs After Greenland Talks Yield Deal Framework

President Donald Trump abruptly reversed course on proposed tariffs against European nations on Wednesday, announcing he would suspend the planned measures after reaching what he described as a “framework of a future deal” related to Greenland and broader Arctic cooperation.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the agreement-in-principle followed discussions with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and would benefit both the United States and its allies. As a result, the tariffs that were scheduled to take effect on February 1 will no longer move forward, easing market tensions that had flared over the past several days.

“This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America, and all NATO Nations,” Trump wrote, adding that further details would be released as negotiations progress.

The announcement marked a sharp shift from Trump’s weekend threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries that he claimed were obstructing U.S. efforts to pursue a deal involving Greenland, with rates set to rise to 25% by June if no agreement was reached. The proposed tariffs would have applied broadly to all goods imported from the affected nations, sparking fears of renewed transatlantic trade conflict.

Those concerns quickly reverberated through financial markets, contributing to volatility as investors weighed the prospect of escalating tariffs between long-standing allies. European leaders responded forcefully, with the European Parliament freezing a ratification vote on a U.S.–EU trade agreement and EU officials reportedly exploring retaliatory tariffs on up to $108 billion worth of American exports.

Trump’s reversal helped stabilize sentiment, at least temporarily, by removing the immediate threat of trade disruption.

The tariff dispute stemmed from Trump’s renewed push for negotiations over Greenland, a Danish territory with growing strategic importance due to its location and natural resources. Speaking earlier Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump called for “immediate negotiations” while signaling he was ruling out the use of military force.

His comments walked a careful line—pressing European partners for cooperation while stopping short of overt escalation. “You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and we will remember,” Trump said, underscoring the pressure campaign that preceded the tariff threats.

While details of the Greenland framework remain scarce, Trump indicated the discussions would extend beyond Greenland itself to include broader Arctic coordination, an area of increasing geopolitical competition.

The episode unfolded against ongoing legal uncertainty surrounding Trump’s global tariff authority. The U.S. Supreme Court has so far declined to issue rulings this year on challenges to the legality and scope of his trade duties, leaving unresolved questions about executive power in trade policy.

Trump said Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will lead negotiations going forward. He also praised NATO allies for increasing defense spending, a recurring theme in his foreign policy messaging.

For now, the suspension of tariffs offers breathing room for markets and diplomats alike. But with negotiations still incomplete, investors and U.S. allies will be watching closely to see whether the “framework” evolves into a durable agreement—or another flashpoint in an increasingly unpredictable trade landscape.

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – A Strong Start to the Year


Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Raising PT to $145. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and raising our price target on KTOS shares to $145 from a previous $95. KTOS shares are up 72% YTD, compared to 1.4% for the S&P 500, continuing the outperformance seen over the past three years. We believe the abundant opportunities across the business, potential positive increases in the defense budget, and solid execution present strong financial upside potential.

Defense Budget. Interest in the defense sector is partially being driven by the Trump Administration’s goal to increase the 2027 Defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion, up from approximately $1 trillion in 2026. Significantly, as relates to Kratos, a key focus of any increased spending will be on drones, autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and space, all key areas of Kratos.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Trump Suggests Using Trade Penalties to Pressure Support for Greenland Plan

President Donald Trump said Friday that he may impose new tariffs on foreign countries as part of an aggressive effort to pressure allies into supporting U.S. acquisition of Greenland, once again turning to trade penalties as a geopolitical bargaining tool.

Speaking at the White House during a health care–related event, Trump framed Greenland as a national security imperative and suggested tariffs could be used against countries that resist his ambitions. “We need Greenland for national security,” Trump said. “So I may do that. I may put a tariff on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland.”

The comments mark a significant escalation in Trump’s long-running interest in acquiring the Arctic territory, which is an autonomous region of Denmark. While the U.S. already maintains a military base on the island, Trump has increasingly argued that outright ownership is necessary to counter growing influence from China and Russia in the Arctic.

The White House did not immediately clarify which countries could be targeted by the proposed tariffs or what form they might take. However, Trump’s remarks signal that trade policy may once again be deployed as leverage in diplomatic disputes, even those involving close U.S. allies.

Trump’s tariff threat comes amid mounting legal uncertainty surrounding his broader trade agenda. The president has dramatically expanded the use of tariffs since returning to office, pushing the average U.S. tariff rate to an estimated 17%. Many of these levies were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a move that has been repeatedly challenged in court.

Multiple lower courts have ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA, and the issue is now before the Supreme Court. A ruling from the high court could come soon and may determine whether the administration can continue imposing wide-ranging tariffs without congressional approval. Trump has warned that his economic agenda would be severely undermined if the court rules against him.

The Greenland comments also follow Trump’s recent use of tariff threats to pressure foreign governments on pharmaceutical pricing. The president has argued that U.S. drug prices should be aligned with lower prices paid overseas and said he warned foreign leaders to raise their prices or face steep tariffs on all exports to the United States.

“I’ve done it on drugs,” Trump said Friday. “I may do it for Greenland too.”

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly rejected the idea of a sale or transfer of sovereignty. Following meetings in Washington this week with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a delegation from Greenland and Denmark said they maintain a “fundamental disagreement” with the president’s position.

Trump has also previously suggested that the U.S. is weighing multiple options to secure Greenland, including economic pressure and, in extreme rhetoric, military considerations. Those statements have alarmed European allies and raised concerns about the long-term implications for NATO unity.

As the Supreme Court weighs the legality of Trump’s tariff powers and global trade partners respond to mounting uncertainty, the president’s Greenland push underscores how central tariffs have become to his foreign policy strategy. Whether the tactic yields concessions—or further strains alliances—may soon be tested.

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Some Model Refinements


Friday, January 16, 2026

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Model Refinements. Pre fourth quarter earnings, we went over our model and made some modest adjustments, as well as incorporated 2026 quarterly estimates. With the strong new contract awards in 2025, increased detention populations, and potential for additional awards in 2026, we believe CoreCivic is well positioned to post strong 2026 full year results.

Populations Continue to Rise. Overall, the ICE detainee population continues to increase, hitting just under 69,000 at year-end. This is up from approximately 39,000 at the end of 2024. We expect to see ICE detainee populations continue to increase over the course of 2026 as ICE brings on additional enforcement personnel. Increased populations bode well for CoreCivic.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Expansion of Services


Tuesday, December 23, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Award. GEO Group’s BI subsidiary has been awarded a contract by ICE for the provision of skip tracing services. Skip tracing services entail enhanced location research with identifiable information, commercial data verification, and physical observation to verify current address information and investigate alternative address information for individuals on the federal government’s non-detained docket. We view the announcement favorably and continue to believe there will be additional business to follow from ICE and GEO’s other government partners.

Details. The new contract has a term of two years, with an initial term of one year, effective  December 16, 2025, and an additional one-year period. The estimated revenue value of the two-year contract is up to approximately  $121 million. The format appears similar to the recent ISAP award won by BI, in our view.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – NobleCon21: Growth and More Growth Potential


Monday, December 08, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon21. We had the pleasure of hosting GEO CEO David Donahue at NobleCon21. Management spoke about the significant opportunity and growth in the secure services business for ICE and growth opportunities in the other businesses. A replay of the presentation can be found at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-geo-group-noblecon21-presentation-replay.

ICE. Just 1.5% of the nearly 17 million estimated total alien population in the U.S. is currently being managed, providing significant growth opportunity both in the secure services business as well as under the ISAP program. ICE’s goal remains for 100,000 beds. The current ICE population is over 65,000.


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