V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Awards. V2X has been the recipient of new awards, including one focused on extending the life-cycle of existing platforms and another driving connectivity and communications. In total, the three new awards total over $580 million of contract value, assuming all funds are spent. We view the recent wins as further confirmation of V2X’s ability to provide full mission lifecycle solutions.
Center Display Units. V2X’s Vertex Modernization and Sustainment unit was awarded by the Air Force a five-year ID/IQ contract with a single five-year option (10 years total) with a contract ceiling of $425 million for center display units (CDU), according to the Department of War’s daily contract awards. V2X will supply the Air Force with the following hardware during this period: CDU full kits, CDU line replaceable units, CDU shop replaceable units, and various other support hardware as required.
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CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Diamondback. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced it was awarded a new contract under an Intergovernmental Services Agreement between the Oklahoma Department of Corrections and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to resume operations at the Company’s 2,160-bed Diamondback Correctional Facility, a facility that has been idle since 2010.
Details. The new contract commenced on September 30, 2025, for a term of five years and may be extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $100 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the first quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2026.
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The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
ISAP Award. As we had expected, The GEO Group has retained the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (“ISAP”) contract. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) awarded the contract to GEO’s BI subsidiary for the continued provision of electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision services. It is a two-year contract, which will have an initial term of one year, effective October 1, 2025, with an additional one-year option period.
Long-time Services Provider. BI has provided technology solutions, holistic case management, supervision, monitoring, and compliance services under the ISAP contract for over 21 years and has achieved high levels of compliance using a wide range of technologies and case management services over that time.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Contract Awards. As anticipated, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) awarded CoreCivic two new contracts, which, once fully activated, would generate total annual revenue of approximately $200 million. The two facilities, California City and Midwest Regional, had been operating under Letter Contracts with ICE, which enable CoreCivic to begin operations at a facility while negotiating a longer-term contract. Both facilities were idle at the beginning of the year.
California City. CoreCivic has been preparing to accept detainees at the 2,560-bed California City facility since April 1, 2025. The Company began receiving detainees at the facility on August 27, 2025. Management currently expects the activation to be complete in 1Q26, achieving a normalized run-rate in 2Q26. Total annual revenue, once the activation is complete, is expected to be approximately $130 million. The new contract expires in August 2027.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another Sale. Private-equity firm American Industrial Partners (AIP), through its Vertex Aerospace subsidiary, sold another 1.7 million VVX shares on September 11th. According to the amended 13D filing, the shares were sold at a price of $52.203 per share through a Rule 144 sale. As we have stated in the past, we continue to expect AIP to sell off its V2X holding over time.
Ownership. Following the most recent share sale, AIP’s ownership is now 8,467,286 VVX shares, representing 26.9% of the outstanding common of V2X. This is down from the 18,591,866 VVX shares, or 61.1% of the then outstanding common, held by AIP just after the Vectrus/Vertex merger in July 2022.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Contracts. The Florida Department of Corrections has issued Notices of Intent to Award three managed-only contracts to GEO for the assumption of management and support services at the 985-bed Bay Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility and the 1,884-bed Graceville Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility and for the continuation of management and support services at the 985-bed Moore Haven Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility.
Details. The three contracts are expected to have an initial term of three years, effective July 1, 2026, with unlimited two-year renewal option periods. On a combined basis, the three contracts are expected to generate approximately $130 million in annualized revenues, including approximately $100 million in new incremental annualized revenues for GEO. While the new contracts will not begin until next year, the new awards reflect GEO’s ability to provide the services demanded by its government partners, in our view.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another Seat. V2X, through its Vertex Aerospace unit, was awarded a seat on the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program. CTR is a combined $3.5 billion ID/IQ multiple award vehicle, according to the Department of Defense daily awards notice. This award adds to V2X’s strong opportunity potential, in our view.
CTR. CTR is a ten-year cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost, cost-plus-award-fee, cost-plus-incentive-fee, firm-fixed-price, firm-fixed-price-level of effort, and time-and-materials contract. This contract will deliver a broad range of services and products to provide sustainable chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threat reduction capabilities to partner nations. The CTR Program partners with willing countries to reduce the threat from weapons of mass destruction and related materials, technologies, facilities, and expertise.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Stock Sales. After the market closed yesterday, The GEO Group Executive Chairman George Zoley filed a Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission reporting the sale of GEO shares. We would note the sales were in connection with pre-arranged estate planning that ultimately will result in the sale of 230,918 GEO shares held by Mr. Zoley or trusts held for the benefit of his children.
Details. According to the filing, a total of 72,038 GEO shares were sold on 8/21 and 8/25 at prices ranging from $21.16-$21.72 per share. An additional 75,000 shares were reported sold for estate planning purposes on a Form 4 filed August 20th, with these shares sold at prices ranging from $20.93-$21.72 per share.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
ISAP RFP. In a somewhat surprising development, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has issued a request for proposals for the fifth iteration of its Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP), with a plan to award a potential $2 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Consensus expectations were that an RFP would be released more towards the end of 2025.
Details. The contract will have a maximum performance period of two years, divided into two one-year ordering periods, a significant change from the prior 5-year performance periods. Responses are due by September 1st, a much shorter period than the 6 weeks from the 2019 contract. The contract is scheduled to begin on October 1, 2025.
Best Value. Bids will be measured on the Best Value Trade-off principle, with the three evaluation factors being, in terms of importance, (i) prior experience, (ii) technical scenarios, and (iii) price. Prior experience and technical scenarios will be significantly more important than price.
Implication. The $2 billion max award over a two-year period suggests ICE is expecting a significant increase in the number of ISAP participants. We would note that in 2024 GEO, the long-time holder of the ISAP contract, generated approximately $330 million of revenue in its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, at a time when the average population was roughly 185,000.
Thoughts. The short response period, 2-year period of performance, and Best Value Trade-off principle would all appear to favor the incumbent contract holder, in this case, GEO, in our opinion. We are somewhat surprised ICE is not seeking multiple awardees, although the relatively short nature of this award may reflect a stop gap to enable ICE to figure out any complexities of having multiple awardees.
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Transition. CoreCivic announced President and COO Patrick Swindle will succeed current CEO Damon Hininger effective January 1, 2026. As part of the transition, Mr. Hininger and the Company have entered into a transition agreement with an effective date of January 1, 2026. Under the transition agreement, Mr. Hininger will work closely with both Mr. Swindle and Mr. Emkes, as a Special Advisor to the CEO and Chairman, to ensure a smooth transition. Mr. Hininger will resign from CoreCivic’s Board effective January 1, 2026, with Mr. Swindle appointed to fill the vacancy.
Patrick Swindle. Mr. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007 as Managing Director, Treasury, and has held numerous positions, including Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer; and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, before being promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer in January 2025. Prior to joining CoreCivic, Mr. Swindle spent ten years in equity research in the equity capital markets divisions of SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., and Avondale Partners, LLC.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
West Tennessee. As anticipated, CoreCivic announced another new contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Through an intergovernmental services agreement (IGSA) between the City of Mason, Tennessee, and ICE, CoreCivic will resume operations at the Company’s 600-bed West Tennessee Detention Facility, a facility that has been idle since September 2021.
Details. The IGSA expires in August 2030 and may be further extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $30 million to $35 million, with margins consistent with the CoreCivic Safety segment.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Tuck-in. Last night, after the market closed, V2X announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire a specialized data engineering, intel mission support, and cyber solutions business serving the Intelligence Community (IC). The transaction is valued at approximately $24 million, net of estimated tax benefits. We expect additional details to follow.
IC Expansion. The acquisition advances V2X’s strategic growth objectives and further extends its reach beyond traditional defense markets, enabling the Company to pursue a greater share of the National Intelligence Program budget and related opportunities. The acquisition adds some 70 people to V2X.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another Sale. AIP, through its Vertex Aerospace Holdco LLC sub, is selling another 2 million shares of VVX stock through an offering that is expected to close on August 11th. This will be the fourth such sale as the private equity firm continues to lighten its V2X holdings.
V2X to Buy. Subject to the closing of the offering, V2X has agreed to purchase 200,000 shares of V2X’s common stock that are subject to the offering at a price per share of common stock equal to the price to be paid to Vertex Aerospace by the underwriter. V2X intends to fund the repurchase of its common stock with cash on hand. This will cost approximately $10 million,
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
