V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another Seat. V2X, through its Vertex Aerospace unit, was awarded a seat on the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program. CTR is a combined $3.5 billion ID/IQ multiple award vehicle, according to the Department of Defense daily awards notice. This award adds to V2X’s strong opportunity potential, in our view.
CTR. CTR is a ten-year cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost, cost-plus-award-fee, cost-plus-incentive-fee, firm-fixed-price, firm-fixed-price-level of effort, and time-and-materials contract. This contract will deliver a broad range of services and products to provide sustainable chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threat reduction capabilities to partner nations. The CTR Program partners with willing countries to reduce the threat from weapons of mass destruction and related materials, technologies, facilities, and expertise.
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The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Stock Sales. After the market closed yesterday, The GEO Group Executive Chairman George Zoley filed a Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission reporting the sale of GEO shares. We would note the sales were in connection with pre-arranged estate planning that ultimately will result in the sale of 230,918 GEO shares held by Mr. Zoley or trusts held for the benefit of his children.
Details. According to the filing, a total of 72,038 GEO shares were sold on 8/21 and 8/25 at prices ranging from $21.16-$21.72 per share. An additional 75,000 shares were reported sold for estate planning purposes on a Form 4 filed August 20th, with these shares sold at prices ranging from $20.93-$21.72 per share.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
ISAP RFP. In a somewhat surprising development, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has issued a request for proposals for the fifth iteration of its Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP), with a plan to award a potential $2 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Consensus expectations were that an RFP would be released more towards the end of 2025.
Details. The contract will have a maximum performance period of two years, divided into two one-year ordering periods, a significant change from the prior 5-year performance periods. Responses are due by September 1st, a much shorter period than the 6 weeks from the 2019 contract. The contract is scheduled to begin on October 1, 2025.
Best Value. Bids will be measured on the Best Value Trade-off principle, with the three evaluation factors being, in terms of importance, (i) prior experience, (ii) technical scenarios, and (iii) price. Prior experience and technical scenarios will be significantly more important than price.
Implication. The $2 billion max award over a two-year period suggests ICE is expecting a significant increase in the number of ISAP participants. We would note that in 2024 GEO, the long-time holder of the ISAP contract, generated approximately $330 million of revenue in its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, at a time when the average population was roughly 185,000.
Thoughts. The short response period, 2-year period of performance, and Best Value Trade-off principle would all appear to favor the incumbent contract holder, in this case, GEO, in our opinion. We are somewhat surprised ICE is not seeking multiple awardees, although the relatively short nature of this award may reflect a stop gap to enable ICE to figure out any complexities of having multiple awardees.
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Transition. CoreCivic announced President and COO Patrick Swindle will succeed current CEO Damon Hininger effective January 1, 2026. As part of the transition, Mr. Hininger and the Company have entered into a transition agreement with an effective date of January 1, 2026. Under the transition agreement, Mr. Hininger will work closely with both Mr. Swindle and Mr. Emkes, as a Special Advisor to the CEO and Chairman, to ensure a smooth transition. Mr. Hininger will resign from CoreCivic’s Board effective January 1, 2026, with Mr. Swindle appointed to fill the vacancy.
Patrick Swindle. Mr. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007 as Managing Director, Treasury, and has held numerous positions, including Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer; and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, before being promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer in January 2025. Prior to joining CoreCivic, Mr. Swindle spent ten years in equity research in the equity capital markets divisions of SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., and Avondale Partners, LLC.
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CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
West Tennessee. As anticipated, CoreCivic announced another new contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Through an intergovernmental services agreement (IGSA) between the City of Mason, Tennessee, and ICE, CoreCivic will resume operations at the Company’s 600-bed West Tennessee Detention Facility, a facility that has been idle since September 2021.
Details. The IGSA expires in August 2030 and may be further extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $30 million to $35 million, with margins consistent with the CoreCivic Safety segment.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Tuck-in. Last night, after the market closed, V2X announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire a specialized data engineering, intel mission support, and cyber solutions business serving the Intelligence Community (IC). The transaction is valued at approximately $24 million, net of estimated tax benefits. We expect additional details to follow.
IC Expansion. The acquisition advances V2X’s strategic growth objectives and further extends its reach beyond traditional defense markets, enabling the Company to pursue a greater share of the National Intelligence Program budget and related opportunities. The acquisition adds some 70 people to V2X.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another Sale. AIP, through its Vertex Aerospace Holdco LLC sub, is selling another 2 million shares of VVX stock through an offering that is expected to close on August 11th. This will be the fourth such sale as the private equity firm continues to lighten its V2X holdings.
V2X to Buy. Subject to the closing of the offering, V2X has agreed to purchase 200,000 shares of V2X’s common stock that are subject to the offering at a price per share of common stock equal to the price to be paid to Vertex Aerospace by the underwriter. V2X intends to fund the repurchase of its common stock with cash on hand. This will cost approximately $10 million,
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CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Availability. Increased use of CoreCivic’s remaining beds will help drive operating results going forward. If all of the idle 13,419 beds were activated, this would imply around $500 million in annual revenue, and around $200 million to $225 million in incremental EBITDA.
Activations. During the quarter, CoreCivic made substantial progress in reactivating three previously idled facilities, and the Company’s activation teams are preparing for additional contracting activity. Management noted that CoreCivic is in advanced negotiations to activate a fourth idle facility and has just begun negotiations for a fifth facility.
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The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
2Q25 Results. Revenue increased to $636.2 million from $607.2 million. We were at $615 million. Adjusted EBITDA was relatively flat at $118.6 million, or 18.6% of revenue, compared with $119.3 million, or 19.6% of revenue, last year, which was impacted by growth investments. GEO recorded adjusted EPS of $0.22 in 2Q25, flat with last year.
Growth. Management outlined additional growth opportunities over and above those already announced this year. For example, activation of the 5,900 idle beds could add $310 million to revenue, while temporary expanded capacity at facilities by another 5,000 beds could add another $250 million. Management noted ISAP growth is likely a 2026 plan.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Increasing Demand. Increasing demand for the solutions provided, particularly from ICE, contributed to a strong second quarter, as nationwide detention populations under ICE custody reached an all-time high. ICE revenue rose 17.2% y-o-y, but we also note revenue from state partners increased 5.2% y-o-y and U.S. Marshals revenue increased 2.7% y-o-y.
2Q25 Results. Revenue was $538.2 million in 2Q25, up from $490.1 million last year. We were at $500.6 million. Safety and Community average occupancy increased to 76.8% from 74.3%, even with an overhang from the recently activated California City facility. Adjusted EBITDA was $103.3 million, up 23.2% y-o-y. NFFO per share was $0.59, up 40.5%. CoreCivic reported adjusted EPS of $0.36, up 80%.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
2Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $1.078 billion, essentially flat with last year’s $1.072 billion and was in-line with our $1.08 billion estimate. Helped by the pull forward of the conclusion of a non-recurring contractual commitment, adjusted EBITDA was $82.4 million, or a 7.6% margin, compared to $72.3 million, or a 6.7% margin, last year. V2X reported adjusted EPS of $1.33 for 2Q25, up from $0.83 in 2Q24.
Moving Up to Franchise Programs. Highlighted by last week’s T-6 services award, V2X’s pipeline is reflecting larger, franchise type programs. These programs typically leverage all of V2X’s mission critical capabilities. Management noted the 3-year qualified pipeline is now approximately $50 billion in size.
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V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Award. V2X, Inc. has been awarded a $4.3 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract by the U.S. Air Force for Contractor Operated and Maintained Supply services in support of the T-6 aircraft. This is one of the largest contracts in V2X history and highlights the Company’s operating capabilities, in our view.
Details. This contract provides support for safe flyable aircraft to meet users’ daily flight schedule and depot requirements consistent with Department of Defense and commercial sector best practices in procuring, producing, and delivering products and services to customers. Work will be performed at a variety of military bases across the continental U.S. and is expected to be completed by July 31, 2034. This contract was a competitive source selection with three offers received.
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Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Follow-on Order. Yesterday, Graham Corporation announced the Company was awarded a follow-on order to produce critical hardware for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo program. This was a sole sourced award. Graham typically receives an annual order for this program once funding is approved for the current year’s supply.
MK48 Program. The follow-on order is valued at approximately $25.5 million. Graham manufactures and tests the alternators and regulators for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo through its Barber-Nichols subsidiary. We believe there are two more option years remaining under the current program in which 50-120 MK 48s are produced annually.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
