Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Avid Bioservices to be Acquired by GHO Capital and Ampersand in $1.1 Billion Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Avid Bioservices will be acquired by GHO Capital and Ampersand Capital in a $1.1 billion deal, with a 13.8% per-share premium.
– Acquisition to enhance Avid’s biologics CDMO services with expanded resources for development and manufacturing.
– Expected to close in Q1 2025, enabling Avid to operate privately and accelerate its service offerings for the biotechnology sector.

Avid Bioservices, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDMO), a major biologics contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO), announced its acquisition by GHO Capital Partners LLP and Ampersand Capital Partners for approximately $1.1 billion. The all-cash transaction positions Avid for substantial growth, with the backing of experienced healthcare-focused investors to expand its development and manufacturing capabilities in the biotechnology sector. This acquisition marks a strategic move for GHO and Ampersand, leveraging Avid’s expertise to strengthen their portfolios in the life sciences industry.

Under the agreement terms, GHO and Ampersand will acquire Avid’s outstanding shares for $12.50 each in cash, reflecting a 13.8% premium over Avid’s closing share price and a 21.9% premium over its 20-day average. This values the transaction at $1.1 billion, enhancing Avid’s growth potential within a private company framework where it can develop its offerings with the support of dedicated capital and expanded industry networks.

Alan MacKay and Mike Mortimer, Managing Partners of GHO, expressed their excitement to work with Avid’s team to realize the company’s full potential, calling Avid “an ideal addition” that exemplifies their mission to improve healthcare access through efficient manufacturing and high-quality innovation. The deal will enable Avid to maintain its focus on serving the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, helping it meet growing demand for complex biologics at clinical and commercial stages. Additionally, the acquisition aligns with GHO and Ampersand’s broader healthcare strategies, aiming to optimize Avid’s impact in global markets.

Nick Green, President and CEO of Avid, noted that partnering with GHO and Ampersand comes at an opportune time, as Avid has been strategically expanding to meet a broader range of customer needs. He emphasized that this partnership will further Avid’s impact, positioning it to better serve biopharma innovators by utilizing GHO and Ampersand’s resources. “After years of investment and expansion, now is the right time to move forward as a private company,” Green stated, expressing confidence that this move will significantly enhance Avid’s capabilities.

The acquisition is expected to support Avid’s future projects, including cell line development, CGMP clinical and commercial manufacturing, analytical testing, and expanded services for early-stage programs. This additional support allows Avid to optimize customer offerings, broaden its expertise, and develop new industry capabilities that align with its dedication to quality and regulatory standards.

The acquisition, unanimously approved by Avid’s board of directors, is expected to close in Q1 2025, pending customary approvals. Avid’s shares will no longer be publicly traded after the acquisition, and the company will continue to operate under its current name and brand identity, with its headquarters remaining in Tustin, California. Financial and legal advising for Avid are being handled by Moelis & Company LLC and Cooley LLP, respectively, while GHO and Ampersand are advised by William Blair & Company and Ropes & Gray LLP.

This partnership reflects GHO and Ampersand’s strategic investment approach, enabling Avid to strengthen its leadership in biologics manufacturing and develop solutions that respond to high-growth demand in the industry.

Sonnet BioTherapeutics Announces $5 Million Offering and Surge in Trading Volume

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Sonnet BioTherapeutics priced a $5 million public offering to fund research and trials.
– The offering sparked a significant increase in Sonnet’s trading volume.
– Sonnet advances its FHAB platform with promising cancer treatments like SON-1411 and SON-1010.

Sonnet BioTherapeutics (NASDAQ: SONN), a clinical-stage biotech company specializing in oncology-focused immunotherapies, has priced a $5.0 million underwritten public offering. The offering includes 1,111,111 shares of common stock, each sold with one common warrant for the purchase of an additional two shares, at a combined price of $4.50 per share. This offering is set to close on or around November 7, 2024, and is expected to generate gross proceeds of approximately $5.0 million before underwriting discounts and commissions.

The proceeds from this offering are intended to fund Sonnet’s ongoing research and development, clinical trials, working capital, and liability repayments, advancing the company’s mission to develop novel biologic therapies for cancer treatment. While the offering is an exciting opportunity for the company to secure necessary funding, it also brings with it potential risks, including the possibility of shareholder dilution through the issuance of new shares and warrants.

Notably, Sonnet’s share price has seen increased volatility today, with trading volume significantly surging. This rise in trading activity follows the announcement of the offering and its anticipated closure. As is often the case with at-the-market offerings under Nasdaq rules, the pricing of the shares could pressure the stock value in the short term. However, investors may also be reacting positively to the financial backing that will enable Sonnet to accelerate the clinical development of its promising drug pipeline.

Sonnet is known for its proprietary FHAB (Fully Human Albumin Binding) platform, which enables the development of biologic drugs designed to target tumor and lymphatic tissues more efficiently. This technology utilizes a human single-chain antibody fragment (scFv) to hitch a ride on human serum albumin, guiding the drug directly to the target tissue for improved therapeutic effectiveness. The FHAB platform is adaptable, enabling the creation of a wide range of therapeutic candidates, including cytokines, peptides, antibodies, and vaccines.

One of Sonnet’s leading therapeutic candidates is SON-1411, a novel bifunctional fusion protein designed to enhance the efficacy of the immune response against cancer. SON-1411 combines IL-18BPR (a receptor that binds IL-18) with IL-12 and is linked to the FHAB platform. This innovative approach is aimed at overcoming limitations observed in previous IL-18-based therapies, which suffered from poor efficacy due to the presence of IL-18 binding protein (IL-18BP) in the tumor microenvironment. By modifying the IL-18 domain, SON-1411 seeks to bypass this issue and enhance the therapeutic potential of IL-18 in cancer treatment.

In addition to SON-1411, Sonnet is also advancing SON-1010, an IL-12-FHAB fusion protein, through clinical trials for solid tumors and ovarian cancer. The company is evaluating SON-1010 in collaboration with Roche, in combination with the immune checkpoint inhibitor atezolizumab, for the treatment of platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. Moreover, Sonnet is working on SON-1210, a combination of IL-12-FHAB and IL-15, for the treatment of solid tumors like pancreatic cancer.

Despite the potential dilution concerns stemming from the offering, the announcement underscores the company’s strategic commitment to advancing its promising drug candidates. As Sonnet BioTherapeutics progresses through clinical trials and secures additional funding, the surge in trading volume today suggests strong market interest in the company’s future prospects. The funding from the offering will be crucial in supporting Sonnet’s clinical trials and advancing the company’s vision of delivering targeted, effective treatments for cancer patients.

Trump Victory Sparks Surge in U.S. Stock Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq post significant gains following Trump’s presidential win.
– S&P Regional Banking ETF jumps over 10%, fueled by expectations of favorable financial policies.
– Tesla shares climb over 10% in response to anticipated business-friendly conditions.

U.S. stocks soared on Wednesday as investors reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory over Kamala Harris, marking his return to the White House. A pivotal call in Wisconsin by the Associated Press early that morning secured Trump the necessary electoral votes, generating a major market response across sectors. With Trump set to be the 47th president, major indices surged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked more than 1,100 points, or 2.7%, leading the rally. Following closely, the S&P 500 gained about 1.5%, while the tech-centric Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 2%.

The small-cap Russell 2000 posted particularly strong gains, jumping over 4.2% at the open, spurred by a surge in regional banks and financials. Many investors interpret Trump’s return as a sign of pro-business policies that could favor financial and industrial sectors, given his history of lower tax policies and financial deregulation during his previous term. The S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose more than 10% early Wednesday, underscoring this trend. Analysts believe that smaller regional banks are set to benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment, making financials one of the day’s top-performing sectors.

Beyond financial stocks, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.46%, reflecting higher confidence in economic growth under the incoming administration. Rising yields often signal investor optimism, though they also reflect anticipated inflation. The dollar also strengthened against major global currencies, and Bitcoin surged to an all-time high, with investors anticipating a favorable climate for cryptocurrency investments. The gains in both the dollar and Bitcoin underscore how investors are re-evaluating asset allocation based on the potential for significant economic and regulatory shifts in the U.S.

Technology stocks, and particularly Tesla, were other standout winners. Tesla’s stock shot up by more than 10%, propelled by CEO Elon Musk’s open support of Trump and the potential for business-friendly policies. Musk has previously praised Trump’s tax and regulatory agenda, and with renewed market optimism, analysts expect Tesla and other growth-driven tech companies to benefit from potentially eased restrictions. The strong performance across tech stocks highlights broader investor enthusiasm for sectors with substantial growth potential under Trump’s policies.

Meanwhile, uncertainty around Congress control remains, as Republicans have flipped the Senate, while the House remains too close to call. Control of both chambers could substantially influence the type and extent of economic policies Trump can implement. As of now, investors are weighing scenarios around tax reform, stimulus packages, and regulatory adjustments that could impact sectors like energy, infrastructure, and finance.

The presidential election outcome is expected to drive market momentum in the near term, particularly in areas like financial services, infrastructure, and industrials. The anticipated mix of fiscal stimulus, tax policy changes, and deregulation, while not fully certain, reflects investor sentiment in favor of economic expansion under Trump’s leadership. How the markets react in the longer term will depend on the clarity of legislative actions and potential shifts in U.S. trade policy.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Strong Results Continue

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Results. Revenue for the quarter was up $74 million from last year to $191.2 million, beating our estimate of $185 million. Continued strong results from the Company’s capital and coastal protection projects contributed to the growth. Gross margin improved from 7.7% to 19.0%. Net income totaled $8.9 million, or EPS of $0.13, from a net loss of $6.2 million or $0.09/sh last year. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $27 million from $5.3 million last year.

Net Income. We would note reported net income was negatively impacted by two events we, and we believe other analysts had not included in their estimates. First, the Company moved forward a dry docking into the third quarter to take advantage of the recent strong awards and second, the impact of incentive comp taken in the quarter. Together, these two items increased expenses by an estimated $5-$6 million in the quarter.


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OpenAI Moves Beyond Software with Robotics-Focused Hire and $400M Investment

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Former Meta AR head Caitlin Kalinowski joins OpenAI to lead its robotics and hardware division.
– OpenAI invests in Physical Intelligence, a $2.4 billion robotics startup, as part of its hardware push.
– Kalinowski’s hire underscores OpenAI’s move to embed AI into consumer-facing, physical devices.

OpenAI has taken a major step in its robotics and hardware ambitions by hiring Caitlin “CK” Kalinowski, former head of Meta’s Orion augmented reality glasses project, to lead the company’s robotics and consumer hardware initiatives. Kalinowski, an experienced hardware engineer and executive, announced her new role on LinkedIn and X on Monday, stating that her initial focus at OpenAI will be “bringing AI into the physical world” through robotics work and strategic partnerships.

The move comes as OpenAI, best known for its chatbot ChatGPT, increasingly signals its intention to expand beyond software into physical technology. Kalinowski’s background includes nearly two and a half years at Meta leading the development of Orion, a pioneering AR glasses project initially known as Project Nazare, as well as nine years working on VR headsets for Meta’s Oculus division. Before her time at Meta, Kalinowski spent nearly six years at Apple, contributing to the design of MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models.

The timing of Kalinowski’s hiring aligns with OpenAI’s recent investment in Physical Intelligence, a robotics startup based in San Francisco that raised $400 million in funding. The investment round also saw contributions from high-profile investors including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Thrive Capital, Lux Capital, and Bond Capital, and the startup’s post-money valuation now stands at $2.4 billion. Physical Intelligence aims to bring general-purpose AI into real-world applications, using large-scale AI models and algorithms to power autonomous robots.

This latest move reflects OpenAI’s strategic push to establish itself as a leading force in consumer hardware, with a focus on embedding its AI capabilities into physical devices. This aligns with its recent partnership with Jony Ive, former Apple design chief, to conceptualize and develop an AI-driven consumer device. These developments indicate that OpenAI is not only aiming to develop software but is also working toward integrating its advanced AI capabilities into everyday, tangible products.

With the addition of Kalinowski, OpenAI gains expertise from a seasoned professional with a strong background in both augmented reality and consumer hardware, positioning the company to bring its AI advancements to life in ways that go beyond the digital realm. As OpenAI enters this new territory, Kalinowski’s experience in AR, VR, and consumer technology will likely be instrumental in helping the company transition its AI models from conceptual applications to real-world, user-friendly products.

Kalinowski’s start date at OpenAI is Tuesday, Nov. 5, marking the beginning of a new chapter for OpenAI as it takes significant strides toward expanding its footprint in robotics and consumer hardware.

Major Drilling Expands South American Presence with Acquisition of Explomin

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Acquisition strengthens Major Drilling’s presence in Peru and expands access to Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Spain.
– Adds 92 drills, increasing Major Drilling’s fleet to 701, reinforcing its industry leadership.
– Initial $63M payment, plus $22M potential earn-out based on Explomin’s EBITDA growth targets.

In a strategic move to bolster its drilling capabilities and expand its footprint in South America, Major Drilling Group International Inc. has announced the acquisition of Explomin Perforaciones, a leading drilling contractor based in Lima, Peru. The deal, valued up to $85 million USD, is expected to significantly enhance Major Drilling’s access to the copper market and increase its service offerings in specialty drilling.

Explomin is one of the largest specialty drillers in South America, offering deep-hole, directional, high-altitude, and underground drilling services. The acquisition strengthens Major Drilling’s portfolio in copper and other essential minerals, which aligns with its growth strategy focused on geographical and service expansion.

In the twelve months ending October 31, 2024, Explomin generated approximately $95 million USD in revenue, with an EBITDA of $16 million USD, underscoring its solid standing in the industry. Around 90% of Explomin’s revenue is derived from partnerships with senior mining companies, a client base that Major Drilling expects to build upon.

Major Drilling’s CEO, Denis Larocque, highlighted the strategic value of this acquisition, noting that it aligns with the company’s long-term growth objectives, supports sustainable development goals, and builds on both companies’ shared cultural and operational values. Carlos Urrea, Chairman of Explomin, emphasized the potential for continued growth and praised the contributions of Explomin’s team, stating that the partnership would position both companies to thrive.

Under the acquisition agreement, Major Drilling paid an upfront cash amount of $63 million USD with the potential for an additional $22 million USD contingent on Explomin meeting specific EBITDA milestones over the next three years. This structure incentivizes Explomin to achieve an average annual EBITDA of $21 million USD during the earn-out period. Funding for this acquisition is supported by Major Drilling’s current cash reserves and debt facilities, reflecting the company’s strong financial position.

This acquisition positions Major Drilling to capitalize on increasing demand in the copper market and enhances its service portfolio in high-growth regions. The integration of Explomin is expected to be accretive, contributing positively to Major Drilling’s revenue streams and expanding its influence in the competitive mining sector.

Dollar Declines as Investors Pull Back from ‘Trump Trades’ Amid Election and Fed Rate Cut Anticipation

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The dollar hit a two-week low, driven by election uncertainty and profit-taking on “Trump trades.”
– Investors anticipate a 0.25% Fed rate cut on Thursday, with further cuts likely in early 2025.
– The Bank of England and other central banks are also expected to ease rates amid market volatility.

The U.S. dollar fell to a two-week low on Monday, with investors taking profits from “Trump trades” ahead of the closely contested U.S. election and an expected Federal Reserve rate cut. The euro gained 0.7% to $1.0906, while the dollar weakened by nearly 1% against the yen to 151.645, and the dollar index slipped to 103.65.

Markets are seeing increased volatility as the presidential race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump tightens. Polls show a slight edge for Harris in key battleground states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, leading some investors to unwind dollar positions they had previously built around a potential Trump win. Betting markets have also shifted, with odds for a Trump victory narrowing over the last week.

Kenneth Broux, Societe Generale’s head of corporate research in FX and rates, noted that investors are adjusting positions in response to new polling data, which showed Harris slightly ahead in some swing states. “Markets are very stretched – long dollars, short Treasuries – into the vote tomorrow, so it’s only natural we are adjusting some of that positioning,” Broux explained.

With a potentially ambiguous outcome, traders are also pricing in a high likelihood of post-election volatility. Options markets show increased demand for protection against market swings, with the one-week implied volatility for euro/dollar reaching its highest since early 2023. Implied volatility is also elevated for the Chinese offshore yuan and the Mexican peso, highlighting concerns about trade and economic policy changes following the election.

Alongside election jitters, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week is another key focus. The central bank is expected to announce a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, marking a departure from the larger 0.5% cut implemented previously. CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 98% probability of this smaller rate reduction, with market odds favoring further cuts through early 2025. According to Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs, the Fed’s projected path for rates appears more dovish than current market pricing, with Hatzius suggesting four consecutive cuts in early 2025.

The Bank of England (BoE) is also set to meet this Thursday, where it is expected to implement a 0.25% rate cut amid recent bond market volatility and concerns about the UK’s fiscal policy. Following the Labour government’s recent budget, UK gilts saw a steep selloff, and the British pound briefly dipped before rebounding to $1.29820. Meanwhile, other central banks, including the Riksbank and the Norges Bank, are anticipated to make dovish policy moves this week, with the Riksbank expected to ease rates by 0.5% and the Norges Bank likely to hold steady.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged at its Tuesday meeting, while China’s National People’s Congress, which convenes this week, is expected to announce further economic stimulus measures.

The interplay between the U.S. election and potential rate cuts from major central banks has intensified uncertainty in the currency markets, as investors monitor for clues on how fiscal and monetary policy shifts will shape the global economic outlook.

Treasury Yields Drop Ahead of Election and Fed Decision

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors shifted to safer assets amid election and Fed uncertainty.
– Polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat, raising concerns about congressional control and potential policy impacts.
– A quarter-point rate cut is widely expected from the Federal Reserve this week, aimed at stimulating economic growth.

US Treasury yields fell on Monday as investors braced for a high-stakes week, with the upcoming U.S. presidential election and a key Federal Reserve rate decision poised to influence the economy and markets. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped nine basis points to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield decreased by over six basis points to 4.14%. These declines come as investors shift focus to safer assets amid election uncertainty and expected economic shifts. Yields, which move inversely to bond prices, reflected some caution as traders weigh potential election outcomes and their economic implications.

Polls indicate a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with NBC News showing the candidates locked at 49% each. Investors are particularly attentive to which party will control Congress, as this could dictate future policy moves, ranging from government spending to tax reforms. A split Congress would likely mean legislative gridlock, whereas a unified government might lead to significant policy changes. The election results could potentially impact stock markets, which experienced a volatile Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 225 points or 0.5%, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipping by 0.2%.

In addition to the election, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Thursday could mark another pivotal moment for markets. Analysts widely anticipate a quarter-point rate cut following the Fed’s recent 50 basis point cut in September. Traders are pricing in a 99% probability of this move, as tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A rate cut could reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth, potentially offsetting some of the anticipated volatility tied to the election.

Also weighing on markets were economic data points, with September factory orders down 0.5% in line with expectations. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due on Tuesday, and these indicators may provide additional insight into the economy’s current health as markets prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Thursday. Analysts suggest Powell’s statements could hint at the Fed’s future outlook for rates, as the central bank navigates a gradually slowing economy.

The shift towards Treasurys reflects a defensive stance by investors seeking stability amid looming uncertainties. Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, suggested patience will be crucial for investors as they navigate potential market noise surrounding the election. The Treasury market’s reaction indicates some investors are bracing for turbulence in stocks if the election results lead to unexpected outcomes. The safe-haven nature of U.S. bonds offers a buffer for investors looking to mitigate risk in a potentially volatile environment.

Adding to market dynamics, Nvidia shares climbed 2% on Monday after it was announced the company would replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a change reflecting Nvidia’s year-to-date rise of 178% as it capitalizes on the AI sector. This development underscores a broader trend where technology and AI stocks remain central to market sentiment.

As election day approaches, financial markets are set to respond not only to the presidential outcome but also to shifts in Congress. With the Fed’s decision and further economic indicators expected this week, both equities and bond markets may experience heightened volatility, particularly if post-election policy signals lead to significant shifts in fiscal or monetary policy.

October Jobs Report Reveals Sharp Slowdown Amid Strikes and Weather Impacts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– October saw a low 12,000 jobs added, largely due to strikes and weather impacts.
– Unemployment remained at 4.1%, while wage growth rose to 4.1% year-over-year.
– Fed rate cut likelihood increased to 99% following this report.

The US labor market added only 12,000 jobs in October, significantly below the anticipated 100,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This marked a sharp slowdown from September’s revised 223,000 job gain and reflected several temporary pressures, including a Boeing worker strike and recent hurricanes. However, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, as the BLS noted that different data collection methods account for the varying indicators.

Manufacturing saw the biggest impact, with a 46,000 job decline largely attributed to the strike, while weather disruptions affected employment across multiple industries. Wage growth, a critical measure for inflation, rose to 4.1% on an annual basis, up from September’s 4%. On a monthly basis, wages grew 0.4%, also slightly above expectations. Labor force participation slipped to 62.6%, down from 62.7% the previous month.

This jobs report also comes as a pivotal data point for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates, scheduled for Nov. 7. Market predictions now put a 99% likelihood on a 25-basis-point rate cut, up from a 95% chance before the report’s release. However, the Fed may focus on broader trends showing the labor market’s gradual cooling beyond these temporary effects. Recent BLS data from September also indicated declining job openings and a reduced quits rate, signaling lower worker confidence and easing hiring pressures.

Economists believe the October job numbers, while unusually low, reflect temporary factors rather than underlying economic weakness. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, suggested ignoring the low job addition figure and focusing on the consistent 4.1% unemployment rate as a more stable indicator of labor market conditions. Carson Group’s global macro strategist, Sonu Varghese, noted that this cooling labor market trend aligns with the Fed’s interest rate cut trajectory for November and December.

Microsoft Stock Drops as AI Spending Weighs on Profits Amid Slower Cloud Growth

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– Microsoft stock drops over 5% following a cautious Q2 forecast, marking its worst one-day fall in two years.
– Rising AI and cloud investments contribute to a 50% surge in property and equipment spending, raising profitability concerns.
– Azure’s growth slows amid supply chain delays, as Microsoft continues aggressive AI investment with OpenAI.

Microsoft’s shares plummeted over 5% on Thursday following a quarterly forecast that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, marking its steepest drop since October 2022. Despite better-than-anticipated revenue and earnings for the recent quarter, the software giant’s guidance for the December period led investors to re-evaluate the impact of high spending on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud infrastructure.

The tech giant reported a 16% revenue increase year-over-year, reaching $65.59 billion, beating the $64.51 billion estimate. Earnings per share also exceeded predictions, landing at $3.30 against an expected $3.10. Net income rose to $24.67 billion, up from $22.29 billion in the same quarter the previous year, indicating robust performance in core business areas, particularly in cloud services.

However, Microsoft’s forecast for its December quarter revenue—projected between $68.1 billion and $69.1 billion—fell slightly below analysts’ expectations of $69.83 billion. While these numbers imply a 10.6% growth in revenue, the miss signals potential challenges ahead as AI and cloud infrastructure investments weigh heavily on profitability. Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform saw a 33% growth this quarter, yet growth projections for the next quarter suggest a slight deceleration, expected between 31% and 32%, according to CFO Amy Hood.

In comparison, Google recently reported 35% growth in its cloud division, and Amazon, the leader in cloud services, is set to release its own earnings, with analysts keenly watching its results for further insights into the competitive cloud landscape. Microsoft has continued to ramp up spending to expand its AI capabilities, particularly through its $14 billion investment in OpenAI, valued at $157 billion. The company expects a significant $1.5 billion loss on this investment in the current quarter due to substantial operational expenses.

CEO Satya Nadella acknowledged supply chain delays in data center infrastructure from external suppliers, which are likely to affect Microsoft’s ability to meet rising demand for its services this quarter. Nadella remains optimistic that these challenges will ease later in the fiscal year as supply and demand align more closely.

Microsoft’s substantial investments in AI and infrastructure have not come without financial strain. Property and equipment expenses surged 50% year-over-year to nearly $14.92 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. This hike reflects Microsoft’s commitment to maintaining a competitive edge in AI and cloud services but also raises questions regarding the sustainability of such high spending levels.

Analysts from BofA Global Research still advise buying Microsoft stock despite the conservative outlook, suggesting that the firm’s core growth engines, like Azure and Office, remain solid. However, they note that the significant AI infrastructure spending may weigh on short-term profitability. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s shares, which were up 9% for the year, trail the Nasdaq’s 21% increase year-to-date, revealing investor caution around Microsoft’s aggressive spending strategy in AI.

As the tech sector continues to pivot towards AI and cloud solutions, Microsoft’s situation exemplifies the challenges of balancing growth with heavy investment costs. While the company’s AI ambitions signal promising long-term growth, the cautious near-term outlook on profitability could lead to further stock volatility as investors navigate the risks and rewards associated with Microsoft’s AI and cloud strategy.

Fed Poised for Rate Cut After Weak October Jobs Report and Hiring Revisions

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The Fed is on track for a 0.25% rate cut in November, with another likely in December.
– October saw only 12,000 jobs added, with hurricanes and strikes impacting hiring.
– Downward revisions for August and September reinforce a cooling labor market.

The Federal Reserve is set to move forward with an anticipated 0.25% rate cut next week, following weaker-than-expected jobs data for October. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, a sharp decline from previous months. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with a significant strike at Boeing, played a role in reducing hiring across multiple industries. Additionally, revised data showed downward adjustments for August and September, signaling a cooling labor market.

The October jobs report and recent revisions provide further evidence that the labor market has slowed from the high-demand levels seen in recent years. As inflation moderates, Federal Reserve officials see this as a favorable environment to begin loosening the restrictive rates they implemented to contain rising prices. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 0.5% in September, and it signaled intentions to cut rates gradually through the end of the year. According to Steven Blitz, Chief U.S. Economist at TS Lombard, the Fed is likely to reduce rates by a further 0.25% in both November and December, aiming for a target range between 4% and 4.25% by year-end.

Job market indicators have continued to soften, as shown in the Fed’s Beige Book, which highlighted flat economic activity across most U.S. regions since early September. Meanwhile, job openings have been steadily decreasing, suggesting that demand for new hires is easing. Although the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 2.8% rate in Q3, driven by robust consumer spending, Fed policymakers remain cautious. Several officials have recently voiced a preference for a measured approach to further cuts, citing the mixed signals between consumer demand and labor market pressures.

The BLS reported that October’s labor market data was affected by temporary disruptions, but it could not definitively quantify the hurricanes’ impact on job additions. Even so, most policymakers and market participants agree that this report doesn’t alter the Fed’s previous position. Vanguard senior economist Josh Hirt commented that, aside from October’s numbers, the year-to-date data reflects a healthy labor market. However, with the Fed’s rate reductions expected to provide stimulus, officials remain attentive to the broader trends in economic activity and employment stability.

The Fed’s gradual approach to rate adjustments aligns with its broader economic strategy: while inflation remains a concern, the cooling labor market and job revisions provide the flexibility needed to support growth without risking excessive inflationary pressures. The Fed’s decision on November 7, just after the U.S. presidential election, will be closely watched as it marks a pivotal point in the central bank’s policy response to evolving economic conditions.

Nasdaq, S&P 500 Slide as Meta and Microsoft Trigger AI Spending Concerns

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Meta and Microsoft’s AI spending plans trigger a broad tech stock decline.
– U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 4.33%, pressuring equities.
– Core PCE inflation and jobless claims data keep Fed policy under scrutiny.

Wall Street’s main indexes dropped sharply on Thursday, driven by renewed concerns over Big Tech’s escalating artificial intelligence (AI) expenses. While both Meta and Microsoft posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings, their plans to increase already significant spending on AI infrastructure raised red flags among investors. This push toward higher AI investment triggered a sell-off in the technology sector as fears surfaced that such costs could eat into future profitability.

The Nasdaq Composite, heavily influenced by tech giants, fell approximately 2%, while the S&P 500 dropped about 1.6%, reflecting the widespread impact of these concerns. Meta and Microsoft’s focus on AI investments caused their shares to slide, signaling that, despite their strong earnings, heightened spending in this area could offset potential gains. This trend extended to other major technology companies, such as Amazon and Apple, which are also slated to report earnings soon. Investors will closely monitor their results as the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants—the group of leading high-value companies that have largely driven market gains—determine much of the market sentiment around AI and technology spending.

Bond markets added another layer of volatility to the day’s trading activity. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.33%, its highest level in months. A stronger dollar also accompanied this climb in yields, placing additional pressure on stocks, particularly in sectors sensitive to rate fluctuations. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the UK faced a bond market sell-off, fueled by inflation fears related to recent fiscal stimulus, adding further tension to global markets.

Compounding the market’s cautious mood was new economic data reflecting inflationary pressures and resilient employment. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge, showed core inflation rising 2.7% in September, maintaining August’s rate and slightly exceeding economists’ expectations. The data hints that inflationary forces might still be persistent, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve as it prepares for its next policy meeting. Investors are now left questioning whether the Fed might adjust its rate policy to control inflation, particularly as a series of rate cuts had been anticipated.

Additionally, weekly jobless claims fell to 216,000, a five-month low that was below market expectations of 230,000. This lower-than-expected figure further indicates a strong job market, a factor that could complicate the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Combined with last month’s spike in private payrolls, this data builds a case for economic resilience, though the Fed must balance this with inflation management. With the critical monthly jobs report due Friday, investors anticipate further insights into employment trends and inflation risks as they navigate these mixed signals.

This blend of rising bond yields, mixed tech earnings, and economic data reflecting both inflation and robust employment presents a complex landscape for investors. The challenges of AI’s impact on Big Tech’s financials, alongside uncertain Fed policy in the face of economic data, have amplified market volatility. The coming weeks, including additional earnings from major tech players, Middle Eastern tensions, the Nov. 5 U.S. election, and the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting, suggest that market fluctuations will likely continue.

Super Micro Computer Stock Plummets After Ernst & Young Resignation

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Super Micro Computer’s stock plummeted over 30% after EY resigned, citing a lack of trust in management’s financial representations.
– The resignation follows allegations from Hindenburg Research of accounting manipulation and an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.
– The company’s future remains uncertain as it navigates significant financial and regulatory challenges.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) faced a dramatic setback today, with shares plunging over 30% following the resignation of its accounting firm, Ernst & Young (EY). This sudden market reaction has raised alarms among investors, spotlighting significant concerns about the company’s financial integrity and future prospects.

In a filing with the SEC, EY disclosed that it could no longer rely on management’s representations or the Audit Committee’s assurances, leading to its resignation while conducting an audit for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024. This lack of confidence from a major accounting firm is particularly troubling, considering the scrutiny surrounding Super Micro’s financial practices. In its response, Super Micro expressed disagreement with EY’s decision, emphasizing that its Special Committee has yet to finalize its review. Nonetheless, the company stated it takes EY’s concerns seriously and will carefully consider the findings and any recommended actions.

EY’s resignation comes on the heels of a scathing report from Hindenburg Research, which accused Super Micro of accounting manipulation and highlighted several red flags, including undisclosed related party transactions and potential sanctions violations. Following this report, Super Micro’s stock took a nosedive, dropping nearly 20% after the company delayed its annual report filing on August 28, 2024. To date, Super Micro has not filed its annual report for the 2024 fiscal year, which has further exacerbated investor anxiety.

Adding to the turbulence, the U.S. Department of Justice has reportedly launched an investigation into Super Micro Computer. While this inquiry is still in its early stages, it underscores the serious nature of the allegations and the potential legal repercussions for the company. The combination of regulatory scrutiny and damaging reports has created a challenging landscape for Super Micro, making it increasingly difficult to regain investor confidence.

Once a darling in the AI data center space, Super Micro’s stock had been buoyed by strong investor interest earlier this year. However, today’s sharp decline reflects a stark shift in sentiment. The outcomes of the Special Committee’s review and the DOJ investigation will be crucial in shaping the company’s path forward.

Super Micro Computer is at a critical juncture following EY’s resignation and mounting regulatory pressures. The company’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its future trajectory. As always, thorough research and a clear understanding of the associated risks are essential for anyone observing this tumultuous environment.