Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Are Small-Caps Oversold? Why Now Might Be the Time to Start Your Shopping List

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The current market sentiment is one of extreme fear, with widespread selling across many small-cap stocks, especially those in the Russell 2000 index. A variety of factors, including tariffs and broader market uncertainty, have led to this wholesale selling, and as a result, many fundamentally strong small companies are being punished. However, for those willing to take a closer look, this fear-induced market drop may present some excellent investment opportunities.

On Friday, the Russell 2000 was down 27%, a sharp decline that reflects how smaller companies, particularly those in this index, are feeling the brunt of the market’s volatility. The Russell 2000 is made up of small-cap companies, which are inherently more volatile and have less liquidity than larger companies. As a result, they tend to experience more extreme price swings in response to broader market movements. This has created a situation where many small-cap stocks are now trading at huge discounts.

Take, for example, FreightCar America (RAIL). Just last December, this stock was trading at around $14. Now, it’s hovering around $4.50. Despite the severe decline, this is a stock that is fundamentally sound. The company is exempt from tariffs, has improved its financials with a successful refinancing deal in December, and has a solid business model. Yet, the stock continues to trade lower because of the broader market selloff affecting the Russell 2000 ETF. This creates a disconnect between the company’s true value and its current price.

Similarly, Graham (GHM), a defense manufacturer, was trading at $52 just a few months ago. Today, it’s at $27, representing a 50% discount on a fundamentally strong company. The Trump administration’s push to build more ships should actually work in Graham’s favor, making this steep decline even more perplexing. The fear in the market has led to excessive selling, but for long-term investors, this represents a buying opportunity.

And then there’s Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN), a biopharmaceutical company whose stock has dropped from $5.50 to $2.80. This is a company with improving fundamentals, particularly positive patient data, yet the stock price has fallen sharply. This disconnect between price and performance highlights how the selloff has been more about broader market panic than about the company’s intrinsic value.

The bottom line is that there are real bargains out there in small-cap stocks for individual investors who are willing to look past the short-term fear. The Russell 2000 index has been hit harder than other indexes due to the smaller size and lower liquidity of the companies involved. As a result, the impact of impulsive, panic-driven selling is more pronounced in this index than in the larger ones.

For investors with staying power, particularly those with a 2-3 year horizon, the current market turmoil presents a significant opportunity. Many of these companies, which are being unfairly dragged down by the broader market, have strong fundamentals and the potential to rebound once market sentiment stabilizes. As the market continues to digest these challenges, patient investors may see significant returns as these companies recover and grow.

Wall Street Roller Coaster: Early Gains Give Way to Sharp Losses Amid 104% Tariff Shock

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. markets experienced a dramatic reversal on Tuesday afternoon after early gains, following President Trump’s decision to impose a 104% tariff on Chinese imports.
– The benchmark indices reversed their earlier rally: the S&P 500 dipped about 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 2.2%, and the Dow slid by roughly 0.8% (around 300 points) after intraday gains exceeding 1,300 points.
– White House officials reiterated that reciprocal tariffs will remain in effect on Wednesday as negotiations continue, even as geopolitical tensions escalate.

In the early session, investors had rallied—the Dow had surged nearly 1,000 points, buoyed by optimism that tariff negotiations, especially with key players such as South Korea and China, might ease trade tensions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had pointed out that around 70 countries were in discussions with Washington, offering a glimmer of hope for relief.

However, that optimism was quickly upended. In a stunning turn of events, President Trump announced the imposition of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods—a move designed to further pressure Beijing in ongoing trade negotiations. The updated trade policy, which was set to go into effect at 12:01 am ET, spurred a sharp reversal in market sentiment. U.S. stocks tumbled in the afternoon session as investors reacted to the unexpected severity of the tariffs.

According to updated market reports, while the Dow had earlier rallied by more than 1,300 points, it eventually closed down roughly 300 points (a loss of about 0.8%). The S&P 500, which had enjoyed gains exceeding 4%, reversed course to fall by approximately 1.6%, narrowly avoiding a full-blown bear market. Likewise, the Nasdaq Composite fell around 2.2%. Data on trading volatility confirmed the dramatic shift; after spiking sharply earlier in the week, sentiment cooled briefly only to plunge following Trump’s tariff announcement.

In a press briefing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reinforced the administration’s hard-line stance, declaring that “Americans do not need other countries as much as other countries need us,” and affirming that President Trump’s resolve would not falter. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities warned that Beijing would “fight to the end” if the U.S. continued with what they termed trade “blackmail,” indicating that any progress in negotiations would be challenging.

Market analysts are now warning that the turnaround in sentiment could presage further volatility unless concrete progress is made on trade negotiations. “There has to be some staying power,” remarked Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management, noting that both corporations and individual investors seek stable, predictable policies before committing to long-term decisions.

As the session ended, while some investors were briefly encouraged by early morning gains and signals of impending deals, the stark reality of the tariff imposition quickly reset expectations. With reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect on Wednesday regardless of ongoing talks, the market faces a period of uncertainty as all eyes remain on the administration and Beijing for any signs of de-escalation.

Wesdome Gold Mines to Acquire Angus Gold in $40 Million Deal, Expanding Eagle River Footprint

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Wesdome expands Eagle River land package from 100 km² to 400 km², unifying exploration potential across multiple zones.
– Offer values Angus shares at a 59% premium with a significant cash component and equity in Wesdome.
– Wesdome plans to advance Angus’ exploration momentum with its resources, infrastructure, and capital strength.

Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. has announced the acquisition of Angus Gold Inc. in a $40 million deal that significantly expands its land position surrounding the Eagle River mine in Northern Ontario. The transaction, structured as a court-approved plan of arrangement, will see Wesdome acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Angus that it does not already own, offering shareholders a combination of cash and Wesdome shares. The offer values Angus at $0.77 per share—comprised of $0.62 in cash and 0.0096 of a Wesdome common share—representing a 59% premium to Angus’ 20-day volume-weighted average price as of April 4, 2025.

The acquisition will consolidate Wesdome’s Eagle River property with Angus’ Golden Sky project, creating a contiguous 400 square kilometre land package in the Mishibishu Lake greenstone belt. Wesdome currently owns about 10.4% of Angus’ shares and 14.9% on a partially diluted basis, and has secured lock-up agreements from shareholders representing approximately 47% of Angus’ outstanding shares. This strategic move positions Wesdome to capitalize on the regional geology and existing infrastructure to unlock value from underexplored zones adjacent to its operating mine.

According to Wesdome CEO Anthea Bath, the acquisition is a “logical and strategic tuck-in” that supports the company’s regional growth strategy and long-term commitment to the Eagle River camp. She emphasized that the acquisition enhances Wesdome’s ability to unlock new discoveries through exploration and complements the company’s goal of optimizing mill capacity with feed from high-potential zones nearby. The move underscores Wesdome’s confidence in the long-term geological potential of the region and its desire to become a more dominant player in the Ontario and Québec gold sectors.

Angus has spent over $20 million on exploration at Golden Sky since 2020, completing more than 40,000 metres of drilling and identifying promising zones like the Eagle River Splay and Cameron Lake banded iron formation. These zones have already delivered high-grade intercepts, and Wesdome intends to focus exploration efforts there in 2025. With its robust balance sheet and existing infrastructure, Wesdome plans to accelerate exploration and development while leveraging stakeholder and Indigenous relationships in the area. The proximity to Wesdome’s existing mill and operational support is expected to reduce timelines and costs associated with bringing any new discoveries into production.

For Angus shareholders, the transaction delivers a compelling financial return and access to a more diversified and capitalized gold producer. In addition to the immediate cash component, shareholders will receive equity in Wesdome, offering continued exposure to the upside potential of the assets they helped advance. Angus CEO Breanne Beh called the deal a validation of her team’s work and a logical next step to realize the full value of the exploration investment made over the past five years.

The deal is subject to shareholder approval, court approval, regulatory clearances, and other customary closing conditions. A special meeting of Angus shareholders is expected to take place in June 2025, with the transaction expected to close in the second quarter. Legal advisors include Stikeman Elliott LLP for Wesdome, and Peterson McVicar LLP and Mason Law LLP for Angus and its Special Committee, respectively. Evans & Evans, Inc. provided a fairness opinion, concluding the offer is fair to Angus shareholders from a financial standpoint.

Republic Airways and Mesa Air Group Merge to Form U.S. Regional Airline Powerhouse

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Republic and Mesa are merging to create a regional airline with 310 aircraft and over 1,250 daily flights.
– The new company will operate under Republic’s leadership with improved financial scale and stronger market presence.
– The merger brings together complementary networks and deepens partnerships with major U.S. airlines.

Two of America’s key regional carriers, Republic Airways and Mesa Air Group, have announced a merger that will create a dominant force in the regional airline industry. The all-stock deal will form a new publicly traded entity under the name Republic Airways Holdings Inc., expected to trade under the NASDAQ symbol “RJET.”

The merger is designed to combine the strengths of both companies—complementary fleets, operations, and culture—into one streamlined, well-capitalized airline focused on regional connectivity. Together, they will operate a fleet of approximately 310 Embraer 170/175 jets and over 1,250 daily departures, supporting major partners including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines.

By joining forces, Republic and Mesa aim to achieve economies of scale that will enhance operational efficiency and financial resilience. The merger comes at a time when regional airlines face rising costs and increasing demand for consistent service across underserved U.S. markets. The combined airline is expected to generate approximately $1.9 billion in revenue, with EBITDA exceeding $320 million and pre-tax margins in the 7%–9% range (excluding one-time costs).

Republic brings financial strength to the deal, having reported $65 million in net income on $1.5 billion in revenue in 2024. Mesa, meanwhile, contributes valuable infrastructure and strategic relationships—especially with United Airlines. Under the new structure, Mesa will support United through a 10-year capacity purchase agreement, while Republic maintains its long-standing agreements with the big three U.S. carriers.

The merger is more than a numbers game. Both airlines share a strong safety culture, a focus on reliability, and a commitment to employee growth. Combining their networks will enhance geographic coverage while leveraging each carrier’s expertise in different regional hubs.

While the companies will initially operate under separate FAA certificates, a unified certificate is in the works. This transition period will allow the two operations to integrate smoothly while maintaining service continuity.

The combined company will also benefit from a stronger balance sheet, with pro forma cash and debt balances of $285 million and $1.1 billion, respectively. Importantly, Mesa will not contribute any existing debt to the new entity—strengthening the financial outlook from day one.

Republic’s executive team will lead the new company, with the board comprising six current Republic directors and one independent Mesa director. Mesa shareholders will own between 6% and 12% of the merged company depending on pre-close conditions, while Republic shareholders will own the majority stake at 88%.

The deal is expected to close in late Q3 or early Q4 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. For investors and customers alike, this merger signals a move toward a more robust and efficient regional airline that’s ready to meet future travel demand and economic challenges.

Russell Reconstitution 2025, What Investors Should Know

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Annual Russell Index Revision and Dates to Watch (2025)

The yearly process of recasting the Russell Indexes begins on Wednesday, April 30 and will be complete by market opening on June 30. During the period in between, FTSE Russell will rank stocks for additions, for deletions and evaluate the companies to make sure they conform overall. The methodology for inserting and removing tickers in the Russell 3000, Russell 2000, and Russell 1000 is intentionally transparent to help eliminate price shocks. Price movements do of course occur along the way, and investors try to foresee and capitalize on them. Channelchek will be providing updates that may uncover opportunities, or at least provide an understanding of stock price swings during this period.

Background

Russell index products are widely used by institutional and retail investors throughout the world. There is more than $20.1 trillion currently benchmarked to a Russell index. This includes approximately $12.1 trillion benchmarked to the Russell US Equity indexes. The trading volume of some companies moving into an index will heighten around the last Friday in June as fund managers seek to maintain level tracking with their benchmark target.

Opportunity

For non-passive investing, determining which stocks may benefit from moving up to a large-cap index, down to a smaller one, or into or out of the measurements is an annual event causing volatility around stocks. There has, of course, the potential for very profitable long and short trades. And the potential for an unwitting investor to be holding a company moving out of an index, which could cause less interest in the stock, and perhaps unfortunate performance.

Active investors should make themselves aware of the forces at play so they may either get out of the way or determine if they should become involved by taking positions with those being added or those at the end of their reign within one of the Russell measurements.

Dramatic Valuation Shifts

The leading industries and altered market-cap of companies of a year ago have changed dramatically from last year’s reconstitution. This will be reflected in the 2025 rebalancing and is going to impact a much larger number of companies than most years. That is to say, a higher percentage of companies than normal will move in, out, or to another index, and may be subject to amplified price movement.

The 2025 Russell Reconstitution Schedule:

• Wednesday, April 30th – “Rank Day” – Index membership eligibility for 2025 Russell Reconstitution determined from constituent market capitalization at market close.

• Friday, May 23rd – Preliminary index additions & deletions membership lists posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.

•   Friday, May 30th, June 6th, 13th and 20th – Preliminary membership lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.

• Monday, June 9th – “Lock-down” period begins with the updates to reconstitution membership considered to be final.

• Friday, June 27th – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.

• Monday, June 30th – Equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.

Take-Away

The annual reconstitution is a significant driver of dramatic shifts in some stock prices as portfolio managers have their holding needs shifted within a very short period of time. Longer-term demand for certain equities is altered as well. Sizable price movements and volatility are expected, especially around the last week in June. In fact, the opening day of the reconstitution is typically one of the highest trading-volume days of the year in the US equity markets.

The market event impacts more than $9 trillion of investor assets benchmarked to or invested in products based on the Russell US Indexes. Portfolio managers that are required to track one of these indexes will work to have minimal portfolio slippage away from their benchmark.  The days and weeks from April 30th through the last Friday in June can create opportunities for investors seeking to benefit from price moves, Channelchek will be covering the event as stocks to be added to, or removed from this year’s Russell Reconstitution and other information plays out.

Russell 2000 Enters Bear Market as Tariffs and Economic Fears Weigh on Small Caps

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The Russell 2000 has officially entered a bear market, dropping over 20% from its record high.
– New tariffs and economic uncertainty have triggered a sell-off in small-cap stocks.
– The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and economic conditions will be crucial for potential recovery.

The Russell 2000, a key benchmark for small-cap stocks, officially entered bear market territory on Thursday, marking a significant downturn in U.S. equities. The index has plummeted over 20% from its record high in late November 2024, making it the first major U.S. stock measure to reach this threshold. The sell-off was fueled by ongoing economic uncertainty, aggressive new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, and rising concerns over an economic slowdown.

Following President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement, financial markets were hit with fresh waves of volatility. The sweeping trade measures, which raised tariffs on key trading partners, have rattled investors, particularly in small-cap stocks that rely more heavily on domestic revenues and supply chains. The Russell 2000 fell nearly 6% on Thursday alone, accelerating its decline into bear market territory.

Historically, small-cap stocks have been seen as beneficiaries of pro-business policies, including deregulation and tax cuts. However, the new tariffs have increased uncertainty, particularly for companies that depend on imported goods and materials. This has led to a sharp drop in stock values, with retail and manufacturing firms taking the brunt of the sell-off.

Another factor contributing to the downturn is the growing concern over a slowing economy. Analysts warn that higher tariffs could dampen consumer spending and business investment, leading to weaker earnings growth across multiple sectors. Small-cap companies, which typically have higher debt levels and less financial flexibility than large-cap counterparts, are particularly vulnerable in times of economic stress.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is also playing a role. Traders are anticipating potential rate cuts later in the year, with speculation that the Fed could step in if economic conditions worsen. Lower interest rates could provide some relief to small businesses, making borrowing costs more manageable, but the overall market sentiment remains bearish in the near term.

While small caps have suffered sharp losses, some analysts believe a turnaround could be on the horizon. Historically, small-cap stocks tend to outperform when economic conditions stabilize and interest rates decline. If the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts and trade tensions ease, investors may find new opportunities in the Russell 2000.

For now, however, volatility remains high, and concerns over tariffs, economic growth, and corporate earnings continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The broader market, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, has also faced steep declines, though neither index has yet reached bear market territory.

As traders look ahead, the next few months will be critical in determining whether small-cap stocks can recover or if further losses are on the horizon. The direction of trade policy, Federal Reserve decisions, and economic data will play key roles in shaping market performance through the rest of 2025.

Tariff Turmoil Puts a Freeze on Global M&A Dealmaking

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Trump’s new tariffs and China’s retaliation have frozen global M&A and IPO activity.
– Market volatility and uncertainty are derailing valuations and financing.
– Deal volumes are down sharply, and recession risks are rising.

Global mergers and acquisitions, as well as IPO activity, are rapidly cooling off amid escalating trade tensions triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new wave of tariffs. The sudden imposition of levies ranging from 10% to 50% has sent shockwaves through global markets, sparking sell-offs and forcing companies to delay or abandon major financial transactions.

The tariffs, announced midweek, were met with swift retaliation from China, which introduced its own export controls and new duties on U.S. imports. The tit-for-tat measures have introduced deep uncertainty into the financial landscape, making it significantly harder for firms to plan or complete deals.

Several high-profile transactions are already on hold. Swedish fintech giant Klarna pulled its anticipated IPO, and San Francisco-based Chime is delaying its own offering. StubHub had been poised to launch an investor roadshow next week but paused those efforts amid rising volatility. Israeli fintech eToro also postponed presentations to investors, choosing to wait until the dust settles.

Behind the scenes, dealmakers are expressing growing concern over valuations, financing costs, and overall market stability. One London-based private equity firm backed out of acquiring a European mid-cap tech company at the last moment, citing the unpredictable macroeconomic environment.

The broader consequences are significant. When capital markets freeze, companies lose access to funding for growth, innovation, and expansion. A prolonged slump in M&A and IPO activity can feed into slower economic performance, especially if firms continue to retreat into risk-averse positions.

Even before this latest escalation, U.S. M&A activity had already been declining. Dealogic data shows a 13% drop in deal volume during Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year. While the tariffs themselves are a concern, it’s the uncertainty surrounding them—how long they’ll last, what further retaliations might follow, and how global partners will respond—that’s stalling boardroom confidence.

The equity markets have echoed that uncertainty. Major U.S. indices marked their worst losses since 2020 last week. JPMorgan has raised its estimate for a 2025 recession to 60%, warning that the combination of trade barriers and tighter monetary conditions could further strain business investment.

For companies considering going public, volatility is the dealbreaker. Pricing shares becomes nearly impossible when markets are swinging wildly, and potential investors are in defensive mode. That’s led several firms to adopt a “wait and see” approach, hoping that stability returns after the initial shock.

The next few weeks will be critical. If trade tensions escalate further, it may cement a prolonged freeze on dealmaking. But if policymakers signal clarity or retreat from aggressive postures, there’s a chance that M&A pipelines and IPO activity could recover by mid-year.

Until then, corporate America and global financial centers alike are bracing for more disruption.

Government Solutions Industry Report: New ICE Emergency Funding?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Emergency Funding. On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security submitted on SAM.gov for an emergency detention and related services strategic sourcing vehicle to bring an additional allotment of detention beds online nationwide, in compliance with the President’s Declaration of a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States and related Executive Orders. The maximum ceiling value of the vehicle is $45 billion.

Details. Under the RFP, the government anticipates making multiple indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awards. It appears the contract will have a two-year period of performance, from April 14, 2025, through April 13, 2027.  Responses are due by April 4th. Under the scope of work, the vendor may be required to provide infrastructure, staffing, services, and/or supplies necessary to provide safe and secure confinement for aliens in the administrative custody of ICE. Ground transportation services may also be required.

Current ICE Population. ICE populations have increased significantly under the new Administration. ADP during the month of October was 38,714, which rose to 40,205 for the month of January. ADP for March 1 through March 22nd was 47,304, while the population on that date was 47,892, according to ICE. There has not yet been a significant change in ATD populations.

Implications. Given the timelines involved and the scope of work required, this ID/IQ would seem to favor the abilities of both CoreCivic and GEO, given their history in the sector and the number of idle facilities that can be brought back online. ICE’s budget in 2024 was $9.7 billion, with about $3.3 billion dedicated to Enforcement and Removal Operations, so a new max of $45 billion is a major jump. If these types of funds are put to use in a timely manner, the current financial projections for both CoreCivic and GEO would prove conservative, in our view.

Research reports on companies mentioned in this report are available by clicking below:

CoreCivic (CXW)

The GEO Group (GEO)

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

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Oil Prices Plunge 7% as Trump Tariffs and OPEC+ Supply Hike Shake Global Markets

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil prices took a dramatic hit on Thursday, tumbling over 7% as panic selling gripped financial markets. The sharp decline followed former President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs and an unexpected supply increase from OPEC+, both of which fueled uncertainty about global demand and market stability.

By mid-morning, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (CL=F), the U.S. benchmark, had fallen 7.5% to around $66.10 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the global benchmark, dropped below $70 per barrel. This marked one of the largest single-day declines in recent months and signaled a potential shift in market sentiment.

The steep decline was largely driven by fear and uncertainty rather than immediate changes in supply and demand fundamentals, according to market analysts.

“Current discussions about an expected increase in oil production by the OPEC+ and uncertainties about the real impact of the recently announced tariffs are creating downward pressure on oil prices,” said Francisco Penafiel, managing director of investment banking at Noble Capital Markets. “We feel this volatility will continue at least in the near term, until we start measuring the effects from the tariffs and favorable oil market fundamentals prevail over fears of a global economic downturn affecting global demand.”

“The panic selling that’s occurring is very likely an over-exaggeration of the true fundamentals,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities. “Near term, however, there’s a lot of unknowns, so you’re seeing a lot of funds unwind positions.”

Investors had been bullish on oil prices in recent weeks, expecting geopolitical tensions and supply constraints to keep the market tight. However, the combination of Trump’s aggressive trade policies and OPEC+’s decision to boost production has introduced fresh concerns about oversupply and weaker global demand.

Adding to the selloff, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced they would increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May.

While markets had anticipated some additional supply, the move was larger than expected, deepening losses in crude prices.

With global supply now expected to rise and demand potentially slowing due to economic uncertainty, traders are recalibrating their outlooks for oil prices heading into the second half of 2025.

Trump’s new tariff policies have raised concerns about the broader impact on economic growth. While energy imports were not specifically targeted in the latest round of tariffs, the indirect effects could be significant.

China, the world’s largest crude importer, now faces a 54% tariff on U.S. goods. If the Chinese economy slows as a result, its demand for oil could weaken, further pressuring global crude markets.

Before Thursday’s selloff, oil prices had been rising due to Trump’s pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia to curb their oil exports. This rally had already driven U.S. gas prices to their highest levels since September, with the national average nearing $3.25 per gallon.

With oil prices now plunging, the outlook remains uncertain. If crude prices continue to fall, gas prices could stabilize or even decline. However, if global trade tensions persist and economic growth slows, oil demand could remain under pressure in the months ahead.

For now, investors are bracing for more volatility as geopolitical risks and market uncertainty take center stage.

Bidding War Heats Up as TikTok Faces Looming U.S. Deadline

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Takeaways:
– Amazon and OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely have joined the bidding war for TikTok ahead of the April 5 U.S. divestment deadline.
– Private equity firms and venture capital groups are exploring alternative funding options, including a potential buyout led by Oracle.
– Regulatory concerns over Chinese ownership continue to drive the push for a sale, with the U.S. government insisting on a deal that reduces Beijing’s influence.

As the April 5 deadline for TikTok’s U.S. divestment nears, the competition to acquire the short-video giant is intensifying. The latest bidders to emerge include tech giant Amazon and a consortium led by OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely, joining an already crowded field of private equity firms and venture capital investors looking to take control of TikTok’s U.S. operations. With the looming threat of a ban, TikTok’s fate remains uncertain, and the final buyer will play a crucial role in shaping the future of one of the world’s most popular social media platforms.

Amazon has reportedly sent a letter to Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming its interest in acquiring TikTok. Though Amazon has not publicly commented on its bid, the news has already made waves—Amazon’s stock rose by 2% following reports of its interest. The tech giant has long sought to strengthen its presence in social media, having previously acquired Twitch in 2014 and attempted to launch a TikTok-style feature called Inspire, which was later scrapped. If successful, an Amazon acquisition of TikTok would not only expand its reach among younger audiences but could also enhance its advertising business and e-commerce ecosystem.

Meanwhile, several private equity firms and venture capital groups are exploring potential deals. Blackstone is in discussions to join ByteDance’s non-Chinese investors, such as Susquehanna International Group and General Atlantic, to fund a U.S. takeover. Separately, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is backing an effort led by Oracle to acquire TikTok’s U.S. business, a move that would sever the platform from its Chinese parent company.

In a surprising twist, Tim Stokely, the founder of OnlyFans, has thrown his hat into the ring. His new startup, Zoop, has partnered with a cryptocurrency foundation to submit a late-stage bid for TikTok. While the details of Zoop’s financial backing remain unclear, Stokely’s involvement signals an unconventional approach to TikTok’s future ownership, raising questions about how it might change the platform’s business model, content policies, and monetization strategy.

The U.S. government remains firm in its stance that TikTok’s Chinese ownership presents a national security risk. The 2024 law requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok by January 19 was passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, and failure to comply could result in a complete U.S. ban of the app. Washington officials argue that Chinese ownership could allow Beijing to influence U.S. users and collect vast amounts of American user data. ByteDance and TikTok have repeatedly denied these claims.

To comply with U.S. regulations, discussions are underway to create a new U.S.-based TikTok entity where Chinese ownership would be reduced below 20%. However, finalizing such a deal within days remains a significant challenge.

With multiple bidders vying for control and just days left to finalize a deal, TikTok’s future in the U.S. hangs in the balance. If no agreement is reached by April 5, the platform could face severe restrictions or even an outright ban. Whether Amazon, private equity investors, or unexpected players like Stokely’s Zoop ultimately take control, the outcome will have significant implications for the social media landscape and digital advertising industry.

Celsius Holdings Completes $1.8 Billion Acquisition of Alani Nu, Expanding Functional Beverage Portfolio

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Celsius acquires Alani Nu for $1.8B, expanding its zero-sugar beverage lineup.
– Alani Nu stays under Celsius, with leadership advising for brand continuity.
– The deal boosts market reach, blending Alani Nu’s online strength with Celsius’ retail power.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: CELH) has finalized its $1.8 billion acquisition of Alani Nutrition LLC (Alani Nu), strengthening its position in the rapidly growing functional beverage market. The deal, which includes $150 million in tax assets, effectively brings the net purchase price to $1.65 billion, paid through a combination of cash and stock. This acquisition expands Celsius’ portfolio of zero-sugar, health-focused energy drinks and positions the company to capitalize on increasing consumer demand for better-for-you beverage options.

Celsius has built a strong brand by catering to fitness-conscious consumers looking for functional energy drinks with zero sugar. With Alani Nu now under its umbrella, the company gains access to an established brand with a loyal following in the health and wellness space. The acquisition aligns with Celsius’ mission to provide innovative and flavorful products that cater to active lifestyles.

“The closing of this transaction further strengthens our ability to grow the energy drink category and reach new consumers who seek better-for-you, functional beverages as a healthier alternative to traditional, sugary energy drinks,” said John Fieldly, Chairman and CEO of Celsius Holdings.

Alani Nu, co-founded by fitness influencer Katy Hearn, has rapidly grown into a recognizable name in the industry, offering a variety of products including energy drinks, protein powders, and supplements. The brand’s appeal among health-conscious consumers makes it a natural fit within Celsius’ growing portfolio.

Under the terms of the deal, Alani Nu will continue to operate within Celsius, ensuring continuity in branding and product offerings. Key leadership members from Alani Nu will serve as advisors to Celsius, helping to maintain the brand’s identity while leveraging Celsius’ infrastructure and distribution network to expand its reach.

“Alani Nu has built a strong brand and a differentiated consumer base, which we believe will thrive and grow within the Celsius family,” said Alani Nu co-founder Max Clemons. “Thank you to the many Alani Nu employees and partners who have helped inspire and support our customers in their pursuit of active, wellness lifestyles. I look forward to working with the Celsius team to make Alani Nu products available to many more people and to continue creating great-tasting, functional products aligned with today’s wellness lifestyles.”

This acquisition is expected to unlock significant growth opportunities for both brands. Celsius’ established presence in retail and convenience store channels will provide Alani Nu with broader distribution, while Alani Nu’s strong online and direct-to-consumer business will complement Celsius’ expansion efforts.

The global energy drink and functional beverage market has seen substantial growth as consumers increasingly seek out healthier alternatives. With the addition of Alani Nu, Celsius is well-positioned to compete with industry giants like Monster and Red Bull by offering a broader range of health-conscious products.

As Celsius continues to innovate and expand, this acquisition sets the stage for increased market penetration, product innovation, and consumer engagement. By combining forces, Celsius and Alani Nu aim to reshape the functional beverage landscape and provide more options for those seeking energy and wellness in their drinks.

Job Openings Drop to Four-Year Low as Labor Market Cools

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Job openings fell to 7.57 million, the lowest level since September 2024, signaling a cooling labor market.
– Hiring remained flat while the quits rate declined, indicating weaker worker confidence.
– Consumer concerns about unemployment are rising, with surveys showing the highest job loss expectations since 2009.

The US labor market showed further signs of cooling in February as job openings fell to their lowest level since September 2024. According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, job openings dropped to 7.57 million, down from 7.76 million in January. This marks one of the lowest levels since early 2021 and continues the trend of a gradually slowing labor market.

Labor Market Adjusting to New Economic Reality

The decline in job openings signals a shift in employer demand, potentially in response to higher interest rates and economic uncertainty. Despite this, the labor market remains stable enough that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust its stance on interest rates in the near term.

Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten noted, “The February JOLTS report showed some cooling of labor market conditions but is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve from its view that the job market is stable enough to withstand an extended period of unchanged interest rates as the central bank monitors progress on inflation.”

The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring these labor market trends as it weighs potential rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors currently see a 66% chance of a rate cut by the Fed’s June meeting.

Hiring and Quit Rates Near Decade Lows

The JOLTS report also highlighted that hiring remained relatively flat, with 5.4 million new hires in February, up slightly from January’s 5.39 million. The hiring rate held steady at 3.4%.

Meanwhile, the quits rate—a measure of worker confidence in the job market—fell to 2% from 2.1% in the prior month. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows, which raises concerns about future labor market weakness.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, warned that a further slowdown in hiring and an increase in layoffs could pose risks to the economy. “If we think we’re going to see layoffs increase, which I very much anticipate going forward, and we continue to have pretty tepid job growth, that’s a problem,” Hooper said. She added that this situation could increase the risk of stagflation or a broader economic slowdown.

Consumer Sentiment Worsens Amid Labor Market Uncertainty

Public sentiment about the labor market is also turning negative. A recent survey from the University of Michigan showed that two-thirds of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise within the next year—the highest reading since 2009.

In another sign of weakening labor demand, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing employment index fell to 44.7% in February, its lowest level since September 2024.

Despite these concerns, official labor data has yet to reflect significant job losses. Economists expect the March employment report, set for release on Friday, to show a net gain of 140,000 jobs, slightly lower than February’s 151,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%.

With job openings declining and consumer sentiment weakening, all eyes are on the upcoming labor reports to see whether the slowdown deepens or if the job market can maintain stability in the coming months.

Endeavour Silver Expands into Peru with Strategic Acquisition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Endeavour Silver enters Peru with a new silver-gold project, expanding beyond Mexico.
– Diversifies operations in a top silver-producing country for long-term growth.
– Strong exploration potential with high-grade mineralization and existing infrastructure.

Endeavour Silver, a mid-tier silver producer with operations primarily in Mexico, has signed an agreement to acquire a high-potential project in Peru. The acquisition aligns with the company’s long-term goal of diversifying its portfolio beyond Mexico while increasing its production pipeline.

The newly acquired project is located in a historically prolific mining district known for its high-grade silver and gold deposits. With existing infrastructure and promising exploration potential, the site offers Endeavour an opportunity to accelerate development while leveraging its operational expertise in underground silver mining.

For Endeavour Silver, expanding into Peru is a natural progression. The company has successfully built and operated several silver mines in Mexico, including its flagship Guanaceví and Bolañitos operations. By entering Peru, one of the world’s top silver-producing nations, Endeavour is positioning itself for sustainable growth amid rising global demand for silver and gold.

The deal also reduces the company’s reliance on a single jurisdiction, a move that could mitigate geopolitical risks associated with operating exclusively in Mexico. With silver prices showing strength due to increasing industrial and investment demand, Endeavour Silver’s expansion comes at an opportune time.

The newly acquired project boasts a combination of historical high-grade production and strong exploration upside. Preliminary geological assessments indicate the presence of high-quality silver and gold mineralization, suggesting strong resource expansion potential.

Endeavour Silver plans to commence a detailed exploration program, including drilling and metallurgical testing, to assess the project’s full potential. Depending on results, the company aims to advance toward development and production in the coming years.

For investors, Endeavour Silver’s move into Peru signals a commitment to long-term growth and value creation. Expanding into a new mining-friendly jurisdiction with a high-potential project could enhance the company’s production profile and profitability.

The announcement also underscores the broader trend of small and mid-cap miners looking beyond their traditional operating regions to capitalize on attractive, underdeveloped assets. As silver demand remains strong due to its industrial applications (such as in solar panels and electronics) and investment appeal, Endeavour’s strategic expansion could position it as a key player in the evolving market.

Endeavour Silver’s acquisition in Peru is a bold step that could redefine its future. By entering a world-class mining jurisdiction with a high-grade project, the company is strengthening its asset base while de-risking its geographic exposure. With exploration efforts set to begin, investors will be watching closely to see how the company unlocks value from this newly acquired asset.