Release – Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Expands Oil & Gas Royalties Platform With $206 Million Acquisition

TULSA, Okla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) (“ARLP” or the “Partnership”) today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements to acquire certain general partner and limited partner interests in AllDale Minerals III, LP and AllDale Minerals IV, LP (collectively, “AllDale III & IV”) for approximately $206.2 million, subject to customary closing price adjustments.

The transaction implies an aggregate gross valuation for AllDale III & IV of approximately $410.0 million. The general partner and limited partner interests being sold by the third-party selling interest holders are valued at approximately $306.2 million, with $206.2 million of the interests to be acquired by ARLP and $100.0 million of the interests to be acquired by related parties of Joseph W. Craft III, ARLP’s Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer.

The difference between the $410.0 million aggregate gross valuation and the $306.2 million value of interests being acquired reflects existing interests already owned by ARLP and related parties of Mr. Craft.

Upon closing, ARLP’s aggregate economic interest across AllDale III & IV is expected to increase from approximately 5% to 61% and ARLP, through a wholly owned subsidiary, is expected to own 100% of the general partner interests of AllDale III & IV, that will be non-economic post-closing.

The agreements provide for an effective date of April 1, 2026, and the transaction is expected to close during July 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. Given the participation in the transaction by related parties of Mr. Craft, the terms of the transaction were approved by the conflicts committee of the Board of Directors of ARLP’s general partner, which is comprised entirely of independent directors.

AllDale III & IV Acquisition Highlights

  • AllDale III & IV hold approximately 48,500 net royalty acres (“NRAs”) across premier basins and resource plays including the Permian, Anadarko, Bakken, and Haynesville
  • The Permian represents approximately 7,300 of the NRAs and 52% of 1Q26 total royalty revenue
  • Average 1Q26 production of approximately 5,940 BOE per day in total and 3,665 BOE per day net to ARLP’s economic interests(1), consisting of 27% oil, 18% NGLs, and 55% natural gas
  • Approximately 67% of 1Q26 total royalty revenue was generated from oil
  • The acquisition further de-risks ARLP’s existing minerals portfolio via a gross core acreage expansion with limited overlap to ARLP’s existing royalty asset base
  • Meaningfully enhances ARLP’s northern Delaware, Anadarko, and Bakken positions, increasing trailing-twelve-month new wells placed on production by 59%, 78%, and 91%, respectively
  • Provides entry into the Haynesville, a key natural gas resource play supporting LNG export demand
  • Implied acquisition multiple on the general partner and limited partner interests being acquired by ARLP of approximately 5.0x projected next-twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA, based on commodity strip pricing as of June 5, 2026, and inclusive of existing AllDale III & IV hedges to be assumed at closing
  • Expected to be immediately accretive to ARLP’s free cash flow per unit, based on current assumptions
  • ARLP’s acquisition is expected to be funded through a combination of cash on hand, borrowings under ARLP’s revolving credit facility, and a new debt facility at Alliance Minerals, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of ARLP
  • Pro forma total leverage is expected to remain below 1.0x following the closing of the transaction

Pro Forma ARLP Oil & Gas Royalties Segment Highlights

Upon closing the transaction, ARLP is expected to have:

  • Control of approximately 115,680 NRAs, with over 44,770 NRAs in the Permian
  • Average 1Q26 production of approximately 17,295 BOE per day in total, and 14,285 BOE per day net to ARLP’s economic interests(1)
  • Exposure to 59 gross active rigs across the pro forma portfolio, including 47 gross active rigs on Permian acreage

(1) Net BOE per day attributable to ARLP’s economic interests represents ARLP’s acquired share of production after excluding noncontrolling interests.

Management Commentary

“This acquisition accelerates the continued growth of our Oil & Gas Royalties segment,” said Mr. Craft. “The AllDale III & IV portfolio adds scale and development upside across multiple U.S. basins, anchored by a meaningful Permian position. It also expands our natural gas footprint with entry into the Haynesville, a resource play well-positioned to benefit from long-term LNG export demand growth.”

Mr. Craft continued, “We believe this acquisition strengthens ARLP’s long-term royalty platform, broadens our exposure to high-quality operators and advances our long-term strategy of building a durable, cash-generating royalties business that complements our existing coal operations.”

Cary Marshall, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, added, “The participation by related parties of Mr. Craft is expected to enhance the capital efficiency of the transaction for ARLP. We expect this structure will generate attractive risk-adjusted returns, maintain pro forma leverage below 1.0x, and preserve liquidity for future growth opportunities.”

About Alliance Resource Partners, L.P.

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States, supplying reliable, affordable energy domestically and internationally to major utilities, metallurgical and industrial users. ARLP also generates operating and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic coal and oil & gas producing regions in the United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as a reliable energy partner for the future by pursuing opportunities that support the growth and development of energy-related technologies and infrastructure.

News, unit prices and additional information about ARLP, including filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), are available at www.arlp.com. For more information, contact the investor relations department of ARLP at (918) 295-7673 or via e-mail at [email protected].

The statements and projections used throughout this release are based on current expectations. These statements and projections are forward-looking, and actual results may differ materially. These projections do not include the potential impact of any mergers, acquisitions or other business combinations that may occur after the date of this release. We have included more information below regarding business risks that could affect our results.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: With the exception of historical matters, any matters discussed in this press release are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Those forward-looking statements include expectations with respect to our future financial and operational performance, coal and oil & gas consumption and expected future prices, our ability to increase or maintain unitholder distributions in future quarters, business plans and potential growth with respect to our energy and infrastructure investments, optimizing cash flows, reducing operating and capital expenditures, infrastructure projects at our existing properties, growth in domestic electricity demand, preserving liquidity and maintaining financial flexibility, and our future repurchases of units. These risks to our ability to achieve these outcomes include, but are not limited to, the following: decline in the coal industry’s share of electricity generation, including as a result of environmental concerns related to coal mining and combustion, the cost and perceived benefits of other sources of electricity and fuels, such as oil & gas, nuclear energy, and renewable fuels and the retirement of coal-fired power plants in the U.S.; our ability to provide fuel for growth in domestic energy demand, should it materialize; changes in macroeconomic and market conditions and market volatility, and the impact of such changes and volatility on our financial position; changes in global economic and geo-political conditions or changes in industries in which our customers operate; changes in commodity prices, demand and availability which could affect our operating results and cash flows; impacts of geopolitical events, including the conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East; actions of the major oil-producing countries with respect to oil production volumes and prices and the direct and indirect impacts over the near and long term on oil & gas exploration and production operations at the properties in which we hold mineral interests; changes in competition in domestic and international coal markets and our ability to respond to such changes; potential shut-ins of production by the operators of the properties in which we hold oil & gas mineral interests due to low commodity prices or the lack of downstream demand or storage capacity; risks associated with the expansion of and investments into the infrastructure of our operations and properties, including the timing of such investments coming online; our ability to identify and complete acquisitions and to successfully integrate such acquisitions into our business and achieve the anticipated benefits therefrom; our ability to identify and invest in new energy and infrastructure ventures; the success of our development and growth plans for our wholly owned subsidiary, Matrix Design Group, LLC, and our investments in emerging and other infrastructure and technology companies; dependence on significant customer contracts, and failure of customers to renew existing contracts upon expiration; adjustments made in price, volume, or terms to existing coal supply agreements; the effects of and changes in trade, monetary and fiscal policies and laws, and the results of central bank policy actions including interest rates, bank failures, and associated liquidity risks; the effects of and changes in taxes or tariffs and other trade measures adopted or threatened by the United States and foreign governments, including the imposition of or increase in tariffs on steel and/or other raw materials; legislation, regulations, and court decisions and interpretations thereof, both domestic and foreign, including those relating to the environment and the release of greenhouse gases, such as state legislation seeking to impose liability on a wide range of energy companies under greenhouse gas “superfund” laws, mining, miner health and safety, hydraulic fracturing, and health care; deregulation of the electric utility industry or the effects of any adverse change in the coal industry, electric utility industry, or general economic conditions; investors’ and other stakeholders’ attention to sustainability matters; liquidity constraints, including those resulting from any future unavailability of financing; customer bankruptcies, cancellations or breaches to existing contracts, or other failures to perform; customer delays, failure to take coal under contracts or defaults in making payments; our productivity levels and margins earned on our coal sales; disruptions to oil & gas exploration and production operations at the properties in which we hold mineral interests; changes in equipment, raw material, service or labor costs or availability, including due to inflationary pressures or tariffs; changes in our ability to recruit, hire and maintain labor; our ability to maintain satisfactory relations with our employees; increases in labor costs, including increases in the costs of health insurance, adverse changes in work rules, or cash payments or projections associated with workers’ compensation claims; increases in transportation costs and risk of transportation delays or interruptions; operational interruptions due to geologic, permitting, labor, weather, supply chain shortage of equipment or mine supplies, or other factors; risks associated with major mine-related accidents, mine fires, mine floods or other interruptions; results of litigation, including claims not yet asserted; foreign currency fluctuations that could adversely affect the competitiveness of our coal abroad; difficulty maintaining our surety bonds for mine reclamation as well as workers’ compensation and black lung benefits; difficulty in making accurate assumptions and projections regarding post-mine reclamation as well as pension, black lung benefits, and other post-retirement benefit liabilities; uncertainties in estimating and replacing our coal mineral reserves and resources; uncertainties in estimating and replacing our oil & gas reserves; uncertainties in the amount of oil & gas production due to the level of drilling and completion activity by the operators of our oil & gas properties; the impact of current and potential changes to federal or state tax rules and regulations, including a loss or reduction of benefits from certain tax deductions and credits; difficulty obtaining commercial property insurance, and risks associated with our participation in the commercial insurance property program; evolving cybersecurity risks, such as those involving unauthorized access, denial-of-service attacks, malicious software, data privacy breaches by employees, insiders or others with authorized access, cyber or phishing attacks, ransomware, malware, social engineering, physical breaches, or other actions; and difficulty in making accurate assumptions and projections regarding future revenues and costs associated with equity investments in companies we do not control.

Additional information concerning these, and other factors can be found in ARLP’s public periodic filings with the SEC, including ARLP’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed on February 26, 2026, and ARLP’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, filed on May 8, 2026. Except as required by applicable securities laws, ARLP does not intend to update its forward-looking statements.

Contacts

Investor Relations Contact
Cary P. Marshall
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
918-295-7673
[email protected]

Release – Summit Midstream Secures Additional Double E Commitments and Extends Open Season Amid Strong Shipper Demand

HOUSTON, June 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Summit Midstream Corporation (NYSE: SMC) (“Summit,” “SMC” or the “Company”) today announced continued commercial execution across two of its key growth platforms, the Double E Pipeline in the Permian Basin and its crude oil gathering systems in the Williston Basin.

Highlights

  • Executed two new long-term firm transportation agreements totaling 150 MMcf/d, bringing total Double E open season commitments to 250 MMcf/d and total contracted capacity to approximately 1.9 Bcf/d
  • Extended Double E open season to June 30, 2026 given significant inbound interest; advanced discussions ongoing with multiple shippers in excess of available expansion capacity
  • Expect to FID Double E compression expansion by end of the summer; executed purchase order to secure turbine compressor units to maintain end of 2028 project in-service date
  • Executed a new crude gathering agreement in Divide County, North Dakota with more than 40,000-acre area of dedication; 15 new four-mile lateral well connects expected during fourth quarter 2026

Management Commentary

Heath Deneke, President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, commented, “We are very pleased with the progress we are making on obtaining commercial commitments to support the previously announced Double E Compression Expansion project and we remain on track to reach a project FID by the end of this summer. To date, we have executed 250 MMcf/d of long-term binding agreements during the open season with multiple Shippers. We have also entered into a firm option agreement to provide an additional 200 MMcf/d of capacity for a certain Shipper. Additionally, we continue to advance discussions with multiple Shippers, which collectively, have expressed interest well in excess of the 800 to 900 MMcf/d of expansion capacity. As a result, we have extended the open season through June 30 while we continue to work on securing additional binding commitments. The remaining available expansion capacity will be awarded on a first-come, first-served basis to Shippers that execute a binding precedent agreement.

“In the Williston, today’s announced commercial agreement is another example of Summit capturing growth as development activity in the basin continues to migrate towards our operating footprint in Williams and Divide Counties. With this additional long-term crude gathering agreement, we have now expanded our dedicated acreage footprint by more than 240,000 acres in just the past six months.”

Double E Pipeline — Compression Expansion Open Season Update

As part of the ongoing binding open season for Double E’s Compression Expansion project, we have now executed three long-term firm transportation agreements totaling 250 MMcf/d and we have entered into a firm option agreement for an additional 200 MMcf/d of capacity which may be executed by the Shipper this summer. Additionally, we have received an affirmative FID notice on a processing plant expansion from the Shipper on the previously announced 230 MMcf/d firm transportation agreement. With the 250 MMcf/d of new binding agreements entered into thus far during the open season and the affirmative FID on the previously announced 230 MMcf/d firm transportation agreement, Double E’s total contracted firm capacity has increased to approximately 1.9 Bcf/d.

As a result of the ongoing significant level of interest received from prospective Shippers, Double E has extended the binding open season through June 30, 2026. The Company believes the expansion capacity could ultimately be oversubscribed and is awarding available capacity to Shippers that execute binding precedent agreements on a first-come, first-served basis.

Double E’s Compression Expansion project would increase the pipeline’s capacity by approximately 50%, from approximately 1.6 Bcf/d to approximately 2.4 Bcf/d. The Company expects to reach a formal final investment decision by the end of summer 2026. In advance of the FID, Double E has recently executed a purchase order to acquire gas turbine compressors to secure the long lead time equipment necessary for the project and maintain the Company’s end of 2028 targeted in-service date. Additionally, Double E anticipates filing its 7c certificate application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission later this year.

Williston Basin — New Crude Oil Gathering Agreement

Summit has executed a new crude oil gathering agreement with a producer in Divide County, North Dakota. The agreement includes a 40,000-acre area of dedication contiguous to Summit’s existing Polar and Divide systems, and the Company expects to connect 15 four-mile lateral wells associated with the agreement by year-end 2026.

This agreement is similar in structure to the new crude oil gathering agreement Summit announced in its fourth quarter 2025 earnings results. Taken together, these agreements reflect increasing operator engagement in the northern and western portions of the Williston Basin, where Summit’s infrastructure is well positioned to service incremental development as activity migrates towards our operating footprint in Williams and Divide counties. Summit remains well positioned to continue to expand its customer base and contracted dedicated acreage position as operators continue to pursue 3- and 4-mile lateral development programs in these areas.

About Summit Midstream Corporation

SMC is a value-driven corporation focused on developing, owning and operating midstream energy infrastructure assets that are strategically located in the core producing areas of unconventional resource basins, primarily shale formations, in the continental United States. SMC provides natural gas, crude oil and produced water gathering, processing and transportation services pursuant to primarily long-term, fee-based agreements with customers and counterparties in five unconventional resource basins: (i) the Williston Basin, which includes the Bakken and Three Forks shale formations in North Dakota; (ii) the Denver-Julesburg Basin, which includes the Niobrara and Codell shale formations in Colorado and Wyoming; (iii) the Fort Worth Basin, which includes the Barnett Shale formation in Texas; (iv) the Arkoma Basin, which includes the Woodford and Caney shale formations in Oklahoma; and (v) the Piceance Basin, which includes the Mesaverde formation as well as the Mancos and Niobrara shale formations in Colorado. SMC has an equity method investment in Double E Pipeline, LLC, which provides interstate natural gas transportation service from multiple receipt points in the Delaware Basin to various delivery points in and around the Waha Hub in Texas. SMC is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release includes certain statements concerning expectations for the future that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may project, indicate or imply future results, events, performance or achievements and may contain the words “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “believe,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions, or future conditional verbs such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “would” and “could.” In addition, any statement concerning future financial performance (including future revenues, earnings or growth rates), repurchases of the Company’s common stock, payment of dividends on any series of stock, ongoing business strategies and possible actions taken by SMC or its subsidiaries are also forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements also contain known and unknown risks and uncertainties (many of which are difficult to predict and beyond management’s control) that may cause SMC’s actual results in future periods to differ materially from anticipated or projected results. An extensive list of specific material risks and uncertainties affecting SMC is contained in its 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16, 2026, as amended and updated from time to time. Any forward-looking statements in this press release are made as of the date of this press release and SMC undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new information or events.

Cision View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/summit-midstream-secures-additional-double-e-commitments-and-extends-open-season-amid-strong-shipper-demand-302793484.html

SOURCE Summit Midstream Corporation

832-413-4770, [email protected]

The Russell Reconstitution Enters Lock-Down Today. Here Is What Happens Next and Why It Matters

If you have been following the small and microcap market closely over the past several weeks, today marks a significant checkpoint. Monday June 8 is the official “lock-down” date in the 2026 Russell US Indexes reconstitution schedule — the point at which preliminary membership changes are considered final and the market begins positioning in earnest for one of the highest trading volume events of the entire year.

The reconstitution itself happens after the close on Friday June 26. Markets open on Monday June 29 with the newly rebalanced indexes in effect. Between now and then, every dollar benchmarked to the Russell family of indexes — which collectively underpin trillions in passive investment products, ETFs, and institutional mandates — begins its systematic repositioning process.

What the 2026 Reconstitution Actually Shows

The preliminary data released by FTSE Russell on May 22 tells a specific story about where the US equity market stands after a year of significant movement. The total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 — the broad index tracking the largest 3,000 US-listed companies — rose 29% year over year to $75.6 trillion as of the April 30 rank day. That growth was driven primarily by continued mega-cap strength, with the ten largest companies in the index growing their combined market cap 47% to $26.4 trillion. But the preliminary data also confirms what we have been covering here throughout May and early June: small cap companies posted strong gains of their own, and market breadth is genuinely improving.

The migration numbers tell the story at the company level. Sixty-two companies are graduating from the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000 — meaning they have grown large enough to cross into large cap territory. Of those, technology and industrials companies account for the largest share with 18 additions each, followed by healthcare with seven. At the same time, 237 companies are being added to the Russell 2000 this cycle, including 37 moving down from the Russell 1000 and a significant cohort of healthcare names — 87 in total — joining the small cap index.

Why Lock-Down Day Matters for Active Investors

The mechanics of reconstitution create predictable price dynamics that active investors in the small cap space have historically used to their advantage. Stocks confirmed to be added to the Russell 2000 or Russell 1000 attract forced buying from passive funds and ETFs that must replicate the index composition. Stocks being deleted face the opposite — forced selling by the same funds regardless of underlying fundamentals. Both effects tend to be most pronounced in the days immediately before and after reconstitution day itself.

June 26 consistently ranks among the highest single-day trading volume events of the year precisely because of the scale of simultaneous repositioning happening across the index. This year that dynamic is amplified by an additional layer of significance.

A Historic Change to the Reconstitution Process

2026 marks the first time since 1989 that FTSE Russell is running a semi-annual reconstitution schedule. Rather than one annual rebalance in June, the indexes will now be updated twice a year — with a second reconstitution scheduled after the close on Friday December 11, 2026. The shift is designed to more accurately capture the pace at which companies are moving across market cap segments in today’s environment and to reduce the distortive impact of concentrating all index-related trading into a single annual event.

For small and microcap investors, the semi-annual schedule has a direct implication: the window between when a company’s fundamentals change and when those changes are reflected in index composition is now meaningfully shorter. Companies growing rapidly into small cap territory, or contracting out of it, will be captured and repositioned faster than at any point in the past 37 years.

We have been covering the small cap outperformance story throughout May and into June — from the valuation discount that still exists relative to large caps, to the record microcap returns that most investors have not fully noticed. The Russell reconstitution on June 26 is the structural mechanism through which much of that market evolution gets formally recognized and institutionally repriced. Mark the date.

The Russell Reconstitution 2026 Preliminary List

The preliminary list of stocks to be included in the Russell Reconstitution, and also which Russell Index, is a significant day for many stock investors and the impacted companies as well. This year, it occurred on Friday, May 22. The list, although preliminary and subject to refinements each Friday through June, includes the stocks believed to meet the requirements based on valuations taken on April 30. This is the first official filing from the popular index provider, and it gives the investor public an early look at what to expect when the indexes are reconstituted. The reconstitution can be expected to impact prices as index fund managers readjust their holdings. The event also, for many, redefines the market-cap levels that are considered small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap. This year carries an added dimension: for the first time since 1989, FTSE Russell has moved to a semi-annual reconstitution schedule. That means the June event will be followed by a second reconstitution in December.

Background

The Russell Reconstitution reconfigures the membership of the Russell indexes by defining the top 3,000 stocks based on market cap (Russell 3000), then the top 1,000 stocks (Russell 1000), and reclassifying the remaining 2,000 stocks to form the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. These serve as a benchmark for many institutional investors, as the indexes reflect the performance of the U.S. equity market across different market-cap classifications. An estimated $11 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the Russell Indexes, which makes the annual reconstitution process one of the most consequential events in the equity markets each year. By adding, removing, and reweighting stocks, the reconstitution process ensures the indexes accurately represent the market.

The Preliminary List, published after the market closed on May 22, 2026, is a critical step in the market cap reclassification process. It gives market participants an initial look at potential additions and deletions from the indexes. Stocks on this preliminary roster often experience increased attention from investors, since the list signals where buying or selling pressure could build once the final reconstitution is completed.

The June 2026 reconstitution reflects a U.S. equity market with continued strength among mega-cap leaders and improving breadth in small-cap segments. Technology and Industrials led movement into the Russell 1000, while companies across several industries replenished the Russell 2000, reinforcing its role as a pipeline for emerging companies.

The newly reconstituted indexes become live after the market close on June 26, 2026.

Implications for Investors

The release of the Russell Preliminary List on May 22 could provide opportunities for investors, including:

Enhanced Market Visibility. Companies listed on the Preliminary List may experience increased trading volumes and heightened market attention, or even scrutiny, as investors evaluate their potential inclusion in the Russell indexes.

Potential Price Movements. Stocks slated for addition or deletion from the indexes can experience price volatility as market participants adjust their positions ahead of the anticipated reconstitution changes.

Portfolio Adjustments. Active managers who track the Russell indexes may need to realign their portfolios to reflect the new index constituents, which can trigger buying or selling activity in affected stocks.

Semi-Annual Impact. The move to a twice-yearly reconstitution schedule in 2026 means these dynamics will now play out two times per year. Investors and IR teams should start preparing for a December reconstitution cycle as well, with a second rank day expected in the fall.

Investor Considerations

Stock market participants should keep the following in mind when analyzing the Preliminary List and its potential impact:

Upcoming Update Dates. Following the May 22 preliminary release, updated lists will be posted after 6 PM ET on May 29, June 5, June 12, and June 18. The reconstitution becomes final after the close of U.S. equity markets on June 26, 2026. Watching these updates is the best way to track actual index membership changes as they develop.

Final Reconstitution. The Preliminary List is subject to changes before the final reconstitution. Updates may occur due to faulty data or significant corporate changes, such as a merger, that took place after the April 30 market cap snapshot.

Fundamental Analysis. The fundamentals and financial health of the companies should always be among the most important factors for non-index investors to consider. Historically, potential additions have often presented attractive investment opportunities, while potential deletions may result in a stock receiving less attention from the broader market.

Take Away

The Preliminary List released on May 22, 2026, is an important early step in the Russell Reconstitution process. This year it also marks a structural change in how the reconstitution works, with the shift to semi-annual rebalancing adding a new layer of relevance for investors and companies alike. The stocks listed may experience increased market visibility and price movement in the weeks ahead, but the list remains subject to changes through June 18. The final reconstitution takes effect after market close on June 26. As always, thorough fundamental analysis, including earnings, growth potential, and liquidity, should guide investment decisions. For more information to evaluate small-cap names, look to Channelchek as a source of data on over 6,000 small-cap companies

The Most Pessimistic American Consumer Sentiment in 74 Years Just Sent the Market a Warning

The University of Michigan released its final May Consumer Sentiment reading Friday morning and the number landed well below even the most pessimistic forecasts. The index came in at 44.8 — a new all-time record low in a survey that has been tracking American consumer attitudes since 1952. The reading missed the consensus estimate of 48.2 by a wide margin, fell five full points from April’s already-depressed 49.8, and marked the third consecutive month of decline. No monthly reading in the survey’s 74-year history has ever been lower.

To place that in context: this reading is worse than June 2022 at the peak of post-pandemic inflation. Worse than the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. Worse than the early 1980s when Paul Volcker was hiking rates into double digits to break inflation. The American consumer, by this measure, has never been less confident about the economy than they are right now.

What’s Driving It

The culprits are not subtle. One-third of survey respondents spontaneously cited gasoline prices — unprompted — as a primary concern. Roughly 30% mentioned tariffs. The Iran conflict, now in its twelfth week, has pushed the national gas average to $4.56 per gallon according to AAA, up more than 50% since hostilities began February 28, and GasBuddy projects the summer average could reach $4.80 per gallon with $5 possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Inflation expectations are deteriorating further rather than stabilizing. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from earlier in the month while long-run expectations rose from 3.5% in April to 3.9% in May — the highest reading since the Iran conflict began and well above the 2.8% to 3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024. Surveys director Joanne Hsu noted that consumers appear to be moving beyond viewing the inflation pressure as temporary, increasingly worried it will spread beyond fuel prices and persist over the long run.

The demographic breakdown adds another layer. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees — groups most sensitive to gas and grocery price increases — posted the sharpest sentiment declines. Independents and Republicans reached their lowest readings of Trump’s second term. The breadth of the deterioration, cutting across income levels, age groups, and political affiliations, signals this is not a narrow or politically driven reading. It is a broad-based erosion of consumer confidence.

The Direct Small Cap Implication

Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator — it tells you where spending is headed before the spending data confirms it. And for small and microcap investors, the message embedded in Friday’s reading is direct: companies that depend on discretionary consumer spending are heading into Q2 earnings season with the wind at their back nowhere.

Consumer-facing small caps in casual dining, specialty retail, leisure travel, and discretionary goods are the most exposed. Unlike large cap consumer companies with global revenue diversification and balance sheet depth to absorb volume softness, smaller operators have limited buffers. Margin compression from elevated input and fuel costs combined with softening top-line demand is a particularly difficult combination for companies already operating on thin margins.

The record low also raises the stakes for the Federal Reserve. Weak consumer confidence alongside elevated inflation expectations is the definition of a stagflationary signal — and a Fed led by incoming Chair Kevin Warsh that leans hawkish has limited room to provide relief. Rate cuts that smaller companies have been counting on to refinance variable-rate debt are moving further off the table with every data point like this one.

Seventy-four years of data. The American consumer has never felt worse. That number belongs in every small cap portfolio conversation happening right now.

Release – ISG Event to Explore How Enterprises Are Delivering Strategic Value From AI

STAMFORD, Conn.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Information Services Group (ISG) (Nasdaq: III), a global AI-centered technology research and advisory firm, will welcome enterprise leaders to the 2026 ISG AI Impact Summit to share strategies for delivering measurable, sustainable business value from AI initiatives.

Leaders from DraftKings, State Street, Pfizer, New York Life Insurance Company, Novartis, CVS Health, Bank of America, National Grid, SharkNinja and more will join the event, June 2 – 3 at the Wyndham Boston Beacon Hill. The summit agenda will focus on strategies for realizing value from AI and overcoming the challenges of fragmented operating models, inadequate governance and data architectures and unclear accountability for humans and AI systems.

“Organizations are confronting deeper operational questions around accountability, governance, ROI and infrastructure readiness, as AI evolves from a productivity tool into an autonomous operating layer,” said Loren Absher, director and Americas lead, ISG AI Advisory, and host of the ISG AI Impact Summit Boston. “The next phase of enterprise AI is about redesigning how business gets done.”

On the first day of the summit, Brian Walker, senior vice president of AI and Operations at DraftKings, will deliver a keynote session, “Building the AI-Native Operation: Lessons From Inside DraftKings,” on how AI is reshaping engineering, product and operational workflows, offering insights on how to decide whether to build, buy or partner for AI at scale.

The “Closing the AI ROI Gap: Why Investment is Outpacing Impact” panel discussion will feature Barbara Widholm, vice president, emerging technologies, State Street; Vivek Mukhatyar, GenAI medical engagement lead, Pfizer, and Abhishek Kumar, corporate vice president, New York Life Insurance Company, discussing the widening disconnect between AI spending and measurable business outcomes, including challenges related to governance, value attribution and scaling AI adoption.

Scott Bradley, vice president, AI & Innovation, Novartis; Radha Kuchibhotla, lead director, AI solutions design, CVS Health, and Maharaj Mukherjee, senior AI architect and senior vice president, Bank of America, will join the “Accountability by Design (not by Accident)” panel discussion to discuss governance, decision rights and accountability frameworks for human-AI operating models.

Day one will conclude with the ISG Startup Challenge, featuring Ajay Joshi, CEO, CipherSonic AI; Madhu Kumar, CEO, Amadis Technologies, and Shrey Sambhwani, chief product officer, Linc AI, pitching their innovative AI solutions to a panel of judges for an audience vote.

On day two of the summit, Bethany Singer-Baefsky, chief privacy and data governance officer, National Grid, will deliver the keynote presentation, “Governance is Not a Four-Letter-Word (but T-Rex is): Responsible AI as Competitive Advantage,” demonstrating how AI governance and data protection can drive innovation and enterprise differentiation.

Elaine Desmond, senior director, Shared Services for BJ’s Wholesale Club, will join the “New Economics of AI: Build, Buy, and the Cost Models Behind Scaling” panel discussion, and Akiba Stern, partner with Loeb & Loeb, LLP, will share practical takeaways for negotiating, in “Rewriting the Rules: What AI Is Doing to Your Contracts (and Your Leverage).”

The “Production-Ready Data: Bridging the Gap Between Insight and Action” panel discussion will feature Rohit Arora, senior director, Privacy and AI Governance, SharkNinja, and Vipul Maheshwari, vice president, Technology, Pacific Life, examining why analytics-grade data often fails to support autonomous AI decision-making and what organizations must do to create auditable, explainable and production-ready data environments.

Additional summit sessions will explore the changing economics of enterprise AI, the trade-offs and architectural implications of AI platform and tooling decisions, and how enterprises can balance autonomy, flexibility and sustainable cost management.

Accenture, Wipro and Infosys are sponsors of the ISG AI Impact Summit. Additional information and registration are available on the event website.

About ISG

ISG (Nasdaq: III) is a global AI-centered technology research and advisory firm. A trusted partner to more than 900 clients, including 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is a long-time leader in technology and business services that is now at the forefront of leveraging AI to help organizations achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm, founded in 2006, is known for its proprietary market data and research, in-depth knowledge and governance of provider ecosystems, and the expertise of its 1,500 professionals worldwide working together to help clients maximize the value of their technology investments.

Press Contacts:
Laura Hupprich, ISG
+1 203-517-3132
[email protected]

EriK Arvidson, Matter Communications for ISG
+1 978-518-4542
[email protected]

Source: Information Services Group, Inc.

Small Caps: The Valuation Gap Is Flashing Opportunity

A significant valuation disconnect has been building in U.S. equity markets for nearly three years — and the Q1 2026 earnings season made it harder to ignore.

Small and microcap companies are delivering some of the strongest earnings growth numbers in years, yet their valuation multiples remain near historic lows relative to large caps. For investors willing to look beyond the mega-cap trade, the message is clear:

Small caps may be entering one of the more attractive valuation reset windows in a generation.

Where Valuations Stand Right Now

The S&P 500 currently trades at approximately 22x forward earnings, above both its five-year and ten-year averages. By comparison, profitable Russell 2000 companies trade closer to 14–15x, while the S&P 600 small cap index trades around 15.8x.

That places the large-cap valuation premium at roughly 30% to 42% over small caps — one of the widest spreads seen in the past two decades.

The valuation disconnect is even more pronounced when looking at EV/EBIT, a metric many institutional investors prefer for cross-cap comparisons. According to Royce Investment Partners, the Russell 2000’s EV/EBIT relative to large caps is near its lowest level in more than 25 years.

Large caps continue to trade at a meaningful premium, while small caps remain discounted despite improving earnings momentum.

What the Earnings Data Shows

The valuation gap would be easier to justify if small caps were underperforming fundamentally. But that is not what the data shows.

Heading into Q1 2026, the Russell 2000 carried consensus earnings growth expectations of approximately 44.9% year over year, with revenue growth projected at 5.2%. That combination suggests improving operating leverage as smaller companies recover from a prolonged period of pressure caused by higher rates, inflation, and tighter capital conditions.

Performance has already started to reflect the shift.

Small-cap earnings expectations have accelerated meaningfully, suggesting improving operating leverage after years of margin pressure

The Historical Context

For much of the past 25 years, small caps traded at a valuation premium to large caps because of their higher growth potential. That relationship inverted during the higher-rate cycle, as smaller companies faced greater pressure from financing costs, inflation, and reduced investor risk appetite.

That inversion pushed the valuation spread to levels not seen since the dot-com era.

Historically, when valuation gaps between small and large caps have reached this kind of extreme, small caps have often gone on to deliver above-average returns over the following three to five years.

One additional data point reinforces the opportunity: the Russell 2000’s weight within the Russell 3000 currently sits at approximately 4.6%, well below its historical average of 7.6%. In other words, small caps remain structurally underrepresented in the broader market.

Small and microcap stocks have materially outperformed over the past year, yet their relative valuations remain near historical lows.

Time to Revisit Small Caps

  • Strong earnings growth.
  • Historically discounted valuations.
  • Improving fundamentals.
  • Low investor allocation.

That combination may create one of the more compelling small and microcap opportunities investors have seen in years.

Against this backdrop, Noble Capital Markets will host its upcoming Virtual Small Cap Conference on June 3–4, giving investors an opportunity to hear directly from emerging growth companies across multiple sectors.

For investors looking to identify opportunities before broader market recognition returns to the asset class, this may be an important time to listen, compare, and look deeper into the small-cap universe.

The valuation gap is real. The earnings recovery is underway. The time to revisit small caps may be now.

Trump Leaves Beijing With Promises But No Deal — What the Summit Outcome Means for Small Cap Investors

President Trump departed Beijing Friday after a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, accompanied by 16 of America’s top executives and a list of commitments that both sides characterized as productive. The problem for markets: no formal agreements were signed, no tariff frameworks were finalized, and the rally that sent the Dow above 50,000 on Thursday is now partially reversing as investors digest the gap between the summit’s tone and its tangible output.

The Dow fell more than 400 points Friday morning. The Nasdaq dropped over 1.5%. The Russell 2000 — the benchmark most closely tied to small cap performance — fell 1.63%, giving back a meaningful portion of this week’s gains.

What Was Agreed — and What Wasn’t

The summit produced several headline-generating commitments. China agreed to purchase American oil, which sent crude prices higher Friday. Both sides called for improved bilateral ties and established new boards for economic and AI oversight. Xi reportedly told assembled US CEOs — including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Tesla’s Elon Musk, and Apple’s Tim Cook — that China’s door would open wider to American business.

But the specifics that markets were hoping for — a meaningful reduction in tariff rates, a structured technology trade framework, or concrete steps toward resolving the broader trade imbalance — did not materialize before Trump’s departure. The president described the conversations as “fantastic” and said “a lot of different problems” had been resolved, but produced no documentation to back those claims before leaving Beijing.

Why Small Caps Feel This More Acutely

Large multinational corporations have the geographic diversification and financial flexibility to weather prolonged trade uncertainty. Small and microcap companies largely do not. Many domestic manufacturers in the sub-$2 billion market cap space have been operating under tariff-driven cost pressures for months, pricing in relief that has yet to arrive.

Supply chain uncertainty — particularly for companies sourcing components or raw materials with any China exposure — remains unresolved. Until a formal tariff reduction framework is in place, small manufacturers, consumer goods companies, and technology hardware assemblers face the same input cost environment they have been navigating all year.

The Russell 2000’s outsized Friday decline relative to the large-cap indices reflects this reality. Small caps had priced in optimism. The summit delivered goodwill, not policy.

The Longer Game

The establishment of bilateral boards for economic and AI oversight is worth monitoring. If those structures produce actionable outcomes over the coming months, they could serve as a foundation for more substantive trade normalization — which would disproportionately benefit smaller, domestically focused companies that have been most exposed to the tariff environment.

The China oil purchase commitment, if executed at scale, creates a real demand catalyst for American energy producers, a sector where small and microcap names are well represented.

For now, though, the summit’s most honest takeaway is this: the relationship is warmer, the dialogue is open, and the hard work of deal-making remains unfinished. Markets that rallied on the promise are now recalibrating to the reality. Small cap investors should be watching the Russell 2000 closely in the sessions ahead — it will be among the first to signal whether this pullback is a pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.

Release – XCEL BRANDS Announces Renowned Dog Behaviorist and Television Personality Cesar Millan to Premiere on QVC

Primary Logo

Research News and Market Data on XELB

May 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT

PDF Version

NEW YORK, May 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Xcel Brands (NASDAQ: XELB), an industry leading media and consumer products company specializing in building influencer led brands through social commerce and live streaming, is excited to announce, Cesar Millan will be premiering with his new pet multi category collection Trust, Respect, Love by Cesar Millan on QVC (September, 2026).

Known worldwide for his training philosophy and decades of experience rehabilitating dogs and educating owners, Cesar Millan’s latest project will provide high quality and advanced products. 

The Trust, Respect, Love by Cesar Millan collection will feature a curated assortment of pet essentials and lifestyle products created to enhance daily routines for both dogs and their owners. Inspired by Cesar Millan’s lifelong mission to educate and empower pet owners, the brand reflects a balanced approach to care, connection, and companionship. 

“Cesar Millan is one of the most trusted names in the pet industry, and the Trust Respect Love by Cesar Millan brand perfectly captures the deep connection people have with their pets today,” said Robert D’Loren, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “This collection was designed to bring together style, function, and purpose through elevated pet products that reflect Cesar’s philosophy and resonate with today’s pet owners. We are thrilled to introduce this brand to QVC customers worldwide.”  

“For me, trust, respect, and love are the foundations of every relationship with a dog,” said Cesar Millan. “This collection is about bringing those principles into everyday life with products that support both pets and the people who love them.” 

About Cesar Millan  
Cesar Millan is a world-renowned dog behaviorist with over 25 years of experience transforming relationships between humans and their dogs. As the original host of the hit TV series, the Dog Whisperer, to his most recent Better Human, Better Dog, to his best-selling books and iconic workshops, Cesar has become a trusted guide for millions of dog lovers worldwide. With a social media following of over 21 million people and a legacy that spans two decades on television around the world, Cesar’s influence extends far and wide. Trusted by celebrities, world leaders, and first-time pet owners alike, Cesar is committed to helping you achieve lasting harmony with your dog. Cesar moves forward in his journey with purpose and you can follow this journey at www.cesarmillan.com

For further information please contact: 

Gaetano Mastropasqua 
[email protected]

About Xcel Brands 

Xcel Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: XELB) is a media and consumer products company engaged in the design, licensing, marketing, live streaming, and social commerce sales of branded apparel, footwear, accessories, fine jewelry, home goods and other consumer products, and the acquisition of dynamic consumer lifestyle brands. Xcel was founded in 2011 with a vision to reimagine shopping, entertainment, and social media as social commerce. Xcel owns the Halston and C. Wonder brands, as well as the co-branded collaboration brands Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley, Trust. Respect. Love by Cesar Millan, GemmaMade by Gemma Stafford and Off/Duty by Coco Rocha brand and holds noncontrolling interests or long-term license agreement in Mesa Mia by Jenny Martinez. Xcel also owns and manages the Longaberger by Shannon Doherty brand through its controlling interest in Longaberger Licensing, LLC. Xcel is pioneering a modern consumer products sales strategy which includes the promotion and sale of products under its brands through interactive television, digital live-stream shopping, social commerce, brick-and-mortar retailers, and e-commerce channels to be everywhere its customer’s shop. The company’s previously owned and current brands have generated more than $5 billion in retail sales via livestreaming in interactive television and digital channels alone and has over 20,000 hours of content production time in live-stream and social commerce. The brand portfolio reaches more than 46 million social media followers with broadcast reaching 200 million households. Headquartered in New York City, Xcel Brands is led by an executive team with significant live streaming, production, merchandising, design, marketing, retailing, and licensing experience, and a proven track record of success in elevating branded consumer products companies. For more information, visit www.xcelbrands.com

For further information please contact: 

Seth Burroughs 
Xcel Brands 
[email protected] 

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/76a02c6c-f596-427e-8419-a87d9770209c

Primary Logo
Cesar Millan

 

Cesar Millan with dog

Source: Xcel Brands, Inc

The Russell Preliminary Lists Drop in 10 Days. Here’s What Investors Should Be Thinking About Now

Rank Day is behind us. On April 30, FTSE Russell locked in the closing market capitalizations that will determine which companies get added to, removed from, or shuffled between the Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000, and Russell Microcap indexes. The data is set. What comes next is where investor attention needs to be focused.

The first preliminary additions and deletions list publishes on May 22 — ten days from today — after 6 PM ET. If you’ve been following our coverage of this year’s reconstitution, you already know why 2026 carries more structural weight than any reconstitution in decades. If you’re just catching up, start here: Russell Reconstitution 2026 — What Investors Should Know and Rank Day Coverage.

Here’s what’s changed since April 30 and why it matters.

The Market Has Moved Since Rank Day

The twelve days since rank day have not been quiet. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported April CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year, with energy prices surging 3.8% in a single month on the back of ongoing Middle East conflict and elevated oil above $100 a barrel. Rate cut expectations for 2026 have effectively been wiped off the table. Consumer sentiment sits near historic lows.

At the same time, small caps have been dealing with a bifurcated environment — some sectors, particularly defense and domestic manufacturing, have seen meaningful appreciation, while rate-sensitive and consumer-facing names continue to struggle. That divergence matters enormously in a reconstitution year, because companies near the market cap breakpoints on April 30 may have landed in very different positions than they would have a month earlier.

What the Preliminary Lists Could Show

The market volatility of the past twelve months has reshuffled market caps across the small and microcap universe more dramatically than most years. That sets up for a higher-than-normal number of index movers — companies graduating to the Russell 1000, falling into the Russell 2000, or dropping out of the Russell indexes entirely. Defense and energy-adjacent names that have appreciated significantly may be candidates for upward migration. On the other side, consumer discretionary and rate-sensitive small caps that have seen compression could face demotion or deletion.

The stocks to watch most closely are those sitting right at the boundary between indexes. For companies near the Russell 1000/2000 breakpoint, passive fund flows triggered by an index move can be substantial — and the price action in the weeks following the preliminary list often front-runs the actual reconstitution.

The Window That Matters Most

The preliminary list on May 22 is the starting gun, not the finish line. Updated lists follow on May 29, June 5, June 12, and June 18. The lock-down period — when membership is considered final — begins June 8. Reconstitution takes effect after the close on June 26.

That means the actionable window for investors runs from the moment the first preliminary list drops through the lockdown on June 8. Historically, the most significant price moves around reconstitution happen in this period, not on recon day itself. By the time June 26 arrives, passive funds benchmarked to Russell indexes are simply executing what the market has largely already priced in.

With more than $12 trillion benchmarked to Russell U.S. Equity indexes, the capital flows triggered by even a single significant addition or deletion can be meaningful — especially for smaller companies with lower liquidity.

Channelchek will be covering the May 22 preliminary list in detail as it’s released. Ten days. Watch this space.

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Quarter 2026 Post Call Update


Monday, May 11, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Environment. CoreCivic’s near-term performance will reflect the ultimate moves ICE makes. We continue to believe the services provided by CoreCivic are the best value for the Federal government to manage the immigration crisis. We believe the new leadership at DHS is likely to continue to pursue the use of private operators going forward.

Clinical Solutions Pharmacy Acquisition. As mentioned in our initial First Look at 1Q26, subsequent to the quarter’s end, CoreCivic acquired  Clinical Solutions Pharmacy (“CSP”), one of the largest providers of mail order pharmacy services to correctional facilities in the United States. We expect the acquisition of CSP to diversify CoreCivic’s cash flows in a complementary business and a growing market. We believe there are additional opportunities for CoreCivic to expand this business further.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Akamai’s $1.8 Billion Deal With Anthropic Just Sent the Stock Up 28% — and Rewrites the Company’s Growth Story

Akamai Technologies (Nasdaq: AKAM) surged nearly 28% on Friday after Bloomberg reported the company has signed a seven-year, $1.8 billion cloud computing deal with Anthropic — the AI company behind the Claude family of large language models — to help meet what Anthropic describes as explosive and still-accelerating demand for its AI software. The contract is the largest in Akamai’s history and marks a significant pivot for a company that has built most of its business around content delivery networks and cybersecurity services.

Akamai had disclosed the agreement Thursday, describing it only as a deal with a “leading frontier model provider” without naming the counterparty. The identity of that provider — Anthropic — was confirmed Friday through sources familiar with the matter, per Bloomberg. Neither company commented publicly on the details.

The context driving the deal makes the scale easier to understand. Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei said this week at a public conference that his company experienced 80x growth in annualized revenue and usage in the first quarter of 2026 alone, driven by surging enterprise adoption of Claude for software development, workflow automation, and other AI-assisted tasks. That kind of growth rate creates an infrastructure procurement challenge that most companies would struggle to solve quickly — and Anthropic has been solving it aggressively. In addition to Akamai, the company has separately secured computing capacity through Alphabet’s Google and Elon Musk’s SpaceX in deals announced in recent weeks.

For Akamai, the significance of landing this contract goes well beyond the revenue figure. The company has been investing steadily in cloud computing infrastructure in an effort to grow beyond its legacy CDN and cybersecurity business, which — while profitable — has faced saturation and margin pressure. A seven-year, $1.8 billion commitment from one of the most prominent AI companies in the world is exactly the kind of anchor contract that validates a multi-year infrastructure buildout and gives the market a reason to re-rate the stock. Friday’s 28% move reflects not just the deal itself but a reassessment of what Akamai’s computing business could become if it continues to attract AI-scale customers at this level.

For investors watching the AI infrastructure buildout broadly, the Anthropic-Akamai deal is another data point in a clear and continuing theme: the most consequential compute deals being signed right now are not going exclusively to the hyperscalers. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are still capturing the majority of AI cloud spending, but frontier AI labs are actively diversifying their infrastructure dependencies — and that is creating real commercial opportunities for companies like Akamai that have built credible distributed computing capacity at scale.

The broader implication for small and microcap investors is worth keeping in mind as well. Every dollar of infrastructure spending at the frontier AI layer flows downstream — into hardware, data center components, cooling systems, fiber networks, and specialized software. Companies across those supply chains that are positioned to benefit from a sustained, multi-year AI infrastructure buildout remain one of the more compelling structural themes in the small-cap space right now.

Akamai’s stock closed Friday at levels not seen in over a year. The company has not provided additional public details on the deal terms beyond confirming the seven-year compute contract.

April Jobs Report Blows Past Estimates — But the Fed Isn’t Celebrating. Inflation Is Still the Problem.

The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April — nearly double the 65,000 analysts had forecast — and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, according to Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release. On the surface, it’s a resilient labor market. Beneath it, the picture is more complicated, and for investors watching the Federal Reserve’s next move, the report effectively confirms what markets had already suspected: rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon.

Job growth, which had been narrowly concentrated in healthcare for much of the year, showed some broadening in April, with gains in transportation, warehousing, and retail. That’s the good news. The bad news is that manufacturing employment declined and federal government payrolls continued to shrink — two sectors that tend to have downstream effects on smaller companies in industrial supply chains and government contracting. The labor force participation rate slipped further to 61.8%, down from 62.5% in January, a trend that complicates the headline unemployment number and signals that some workers are simply exiting the labor pool rather than finding jobs.

Monthly payroll data has also been unusually erratic this year. February showed a notable revision to a loss of 156,000 jobs, March was revised up to 185,000, and January produced 160,000. The April beat, while welcome, arrives in a context where the underlying trend line is genuinely difficult to read. That volatility, combined with an unemployment rate that has held in a narrow 4.3%–4.5% band, suggests the labor market is stable but not accelerating — and probably not deteriorating either.

With the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate looking reasonably solid, central bank officials have pivoted their focus squarely toward inflation. The Fed’s preferred gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures index — rose 3.5% in March on a headline basis, up sharply from 2.8% in February. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, came in at 3.2%. Both figures are well above the Fed’s 2% target, and inflation has now been running above that target for more than five years.

The concerns deepening at the Fed go beyond domestic data. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing energy prices higher, and several Fed officials flagged this week that sustained elevated energy costs could crimp consumer spending, slow business investment, and — critically — feed back into inflation even as demand softens. Tariffs are adding further upward pressure on goods prices. It’s a stagflationary cocktail that gives the Fed very little room to maneuver in either direction.

For small and microcap investors, the implications are direct. A Fed that is frozen in place — unable to cut because of inflation, unwilling to hike without clearer deterioration in employment — is a Fed that keeps borrowing costs elevated for longer. For smaller companies that rely on access to credit markets to fund growth, acquisitions, or operations, that environment remains a genuine headwind. Deal financing stays expensive. Multiples on growth-oriented companies stay compressed. The companies that will outperform in this environment are those generating cash, managing debt conservatively, and positioned in sectors with pricing power.

Kevin Warsh is set to take over as Federal Reserve Chair in less than two weeks. His first policy decision will be made against one of the more complex macroeconomic backdrops in recent memory.