Tag: PLTR

Palantir Surged 27% on Earnings. The Real Signal Is for Small-Cap AI Software

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Palantir ripped more than 27% higher Tuesday after a blowout quarter — but if you invest in small and micro caps, the move itself isn’t your story. The story is what it says about every AI software name that got left for dead earlier this year.

First, the numbers, because they’re staggering. Palantir grew total revenue 93% year over year in Q2, with US commercial revenue up a frankly absurd 149%. It lifted full-year guidance to 82% growth and posted $1.05 billion in adjusted net income. This is a company that only turned sustainably profitable in late 2023 and has done nothing but accelerate since. The stock has run from roughly $25 to north of $150 in two years. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank piled on, upgrading it to Buy with a $200 target and arguing Palantir is years ahead of the rest of software at turning AI hype into paying customers.

Fair enough. But here’s the part worth your attention.

For the first half of this year, AI was a threat to software stocks, not a tailwind. The fear was simple: if anyone can spin up an AI-coded tool, why pay for enterprise software at all? That panic hammered names like Salesforce and gutted valuations across the sector — small caps most of all, because they always get sold first and hardest. Palantir just punched a hole in that thesis. It showed, with real revenue, that AI demand can be additive to a data-software business rather than a wrecking ball.

That narrative shift is the read-through. When the market decides it wrongly wrote off a whole sector, the re-rating doesn’t stop at the $380 billion leader — it flows down to the smaller, cheaper names that got dumped indiscriminately. The AI software companies with real revenue traction, a defensible niche, and a visible path to profits are the ones that benefit when sentiment flips.

Which fires up the game every small-cap investor loves and should be careful with: the hunt for the “next Palantir.” Be skeptical here. For every genuine small-cap building durable AI-driven software, there are ten with a buzzword-stuffed deck and no customers. The tell isn’t the pitch — it’s accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a specific vertical or government niche the company actually owns. That’s what Palantir had before Wall Street noticed. Look for that same shape lower down the market-cap ladder.

One caveat you shouldn’t skip: don’t confuse the signal with the stock. Palantir trades at a valuation that assumes years of flawless execution — analysts flagged a growth-plus-margin profile far beyond the usual “Rule of 40” benchmark, which is remarkable, but it’s priced for perfection. For small-cap hunters, the play isn’t chasing Palantir up here. It’s treating this quarter as confirmation that the AI-software sell-off went too far, then finding the overlooked names that haven’t re-rated yet.

The giant just told you the tide is turning. Your edge is fishing where nobody else is looking.

Burry vs. Palantir: Is the AI Era Exposing a Crack in the Foundation?

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Michael Burry has built a career on being early — and loudly wrong before being right. The founder of Scion Asset Management, immortalized for his prescient bet against the U.S. housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, turned his sights on Palantir Technologies (PLTR) this week with a pointed post on X that sent the stock tumbling roughly 7% before he quietly deleted it.

The claim was simple and blunt, as Burry tends to be: Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude platform, is “eating Palantir’s lunch.”

Whether he’s right is a separate question. What’s not debatable is that the market paid attention.

What Burry Actually Said

Burry’s thesis centered on Anthropic’s explosive revenue growth — from $9 billion to $30 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in a matter of months — as evidence that enterprise customers are gravitating toward AI solutions that are “easier, cheaper, and more intuitive.” His argument frames Palantir less as a high-growth technology company and more as a labor-intensive consulting business, pointing to the company’s reliance on Forward Deployed Engineers (FDEs) — Palantir staff embedded inside client organizations for months at a time to implement and maintain its platforms.

That model, Burry argued, is structurally vulnerable as direct AI integrations become more accessible. “It took $PLTR 20 years to get to $5 billion,” he noted, while Anthropic is scaling at a pace that suggests the market may be ready to reward the brains of the AI revolution over the operating systems built around it.

This isn’t a new position for Burry. He disclosed a significant short position in Palantir via long-dated put options as far back as September 2025.

The Bull Case: Palantir’s Moat is Real

Not everyone on Wall Street is ready to write Palantir’s eulogy. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintains an Outperform rating with a $230 price target, arguing that Palantir occupies a uniquely defensible position at the intersection of AI and federal government infrastructure. The argument: you cannot run sophisticated AI on sensitive government data without the kind of secure, structured, and compliant data architecture that Palantir provides.

That argument gained added texture this year when the Trump administration banned Anthropic from Pentagon systems following a dispute over AI safety guardrails. Palantir was reportedly ordered to remove Claude from its Maven Smart System and rebuild parts of the platform. That incident, while disruptive in the short-term, arguably underscores the stickiness of Palantir’s enterprise relationships — and the risk that pure AI model providers face in regulated environments where trust, compliance, and security clearances matter as much as raw capability.

Palantir has also posted ten consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth, a track record that speaks for itself regardless of how the competitive landscape evolves.

The Bear Case: Valuation Leaves Little Room for Error

Where the bull case gets complicated is on valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh, while acknowledging Palantir’s standing as a “clear winner through the first stage of the AI cycle,” has flagged that the stock currently trades at roughly 38 times 2027 sales. At that multiple, even strong execution may not be enough to drive meaningful upside. The bar is simply very high.

Burry’s consulting-business critique also has some factual grounding. Palantir’s 10-K does categorize its FDE deployments under professional services — a labor-driven revenue model that is inherently harder to scale than a software subscription or API-based product. As Anthropic and similar companies lower the barrier to deploying enterprise AI, the question of whether Palantir’s hands-on model remains a differentiator or becomes a liability is a fair one to ask.

The Bigger Picture

What this week’s episode illustrates isn’t necessarily that Burry is right or wrong about Palantir specifically. It’s that the AI investment landscape is entering a more complex phase — one where the market is beginning to draw distinctions between infrastructure plays, model providers, and application layers, and debating which of those tiers captures the most durable value.

Anthropic’s valuation recently reached $380 billion, a figure that reflects investor conviction that the model layer is where the leverage lives. Palantir’s case rests on the idea that data infrastructure and operational trust — particularly in government — represent a moat that model providers cannot easily replicate.

Both arguments have merit. The risk for investors is that at current valuations, both stocks demand a level of confidence in the future that leaves little margin for disappointment.

As always, one social media post — even a deleted one — is not a thesis. But when Michael Burry posts, it’s worth understanding exactly what he’s saying and why the market reacted the way it did.

Palantir Soars 25% to Record High as AI Drives Strong Earnings and Growth

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Key Points:
– Palantir stock surged 25% to a record high following better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and strong guidance.
– The company’s U.S. commercial revenue grew 64% year over year, while U.S. government revenues rose 45%.
– CEO Alex Karp emphasized Palantir’s pivotal role in AI and national security, predicting sustained momentum over the next three to five years.

Palantir Technologies saw its stock price soar by 25% on Tuesday, hitting a record high after delivering robust fourth-quarter earnings and an optimistic outlook fueled by artificial intelligence (AI) advancements. The Denver-based software company reported adjusted earnings of 14 cents per share on revenue of $828 million, surpassing analysts’ expectations of 11 cents per share and $776 million in revenue.

The company also provided strong guidance for the first quarter of 2025, forecasting revenue between $858 million and $862 million—well above the $799 million analysts had anticipated. For the full year, Palantir expects revenue between $3.74 billion and $3.76 billion, again exceeding estimates of $3.52 billion. This impressive performance has driven Palantir’s stock up 36% year-to-date, continuing its explosive 340% growth throughout 2024 as AI adoption accelerates.

CEO and co-founder Alex Karp attributed the company’s momentum to the increasing adoption of its AI-powered platforms across both commercial and government sectors. Palantir’s U.S. commercial revenue surged 64% year over year, while its U.S. government revenue climbed 45%. Karp described the company’s trajectory as “unlike anything that has come before,” reinforcing its dominance in AI and data analytics.

Palantir, long recognized for its work with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, has also seen rising demand for its AI-driven commercial software solutions. The company expects U.S. commercial sales to grow by 54% in 2025, reflecting broader enthusiasm for AI-driven business intelligence and operational efficiency.

“We are at the very beginning of our trajectory and the AI revolution,” Karp said in his letter to shareholders. “We plan to be a cornerstone—if not the cornerstone—company driving this transformation in the U.S. over the next three to five years.”

Karp also emphasized Palantir’s commitment to national security, stating that the company is “very long America” and aims to enhance U.S. military capabilities to deter potential adversaries. His comments come amid rising competition in AI, particularly following China’s DeepSeek AI breakthroughs, which have raised concerns over technological supremacy and national security implications.

The strong earnings report prompted several Wall Street firms to raise their price targets for Palantir’s stock. Bank of America analyst Mariana Perez Mora called Palantir an AI “value adder” and increased her price target, while Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from underweight to equal weight. Analyst Sanjit Singh admitted that concerns over slowing growth had been overstated, saying, “Given the strength of the outlook, we acknowledge that we were wrong about our core fundamental catalyst of slowing growth below the 30% level.”

With AI adoption showing no signs of slowing, Palantir’s strong financial results and forward-looking guidance have solidified its status as a key player in the evolving AI landscape. Investors remain highly optimistic about the company’s future, as it continues to expand its AI-powered solutions across both public and private sectors.