Key Points: – Lucid’s CEO calls the $1.75 billion raise a strategic decision to ensure growth and stability. – Investors reacted negatively, resulting in an 18% stock drop, the worst since 2021. – Lucid remains focused on long-term investments, including expanding production and launching new models.
Lucid Group’s CEO, Peter Rawlinson, defended the company’s recent decision to raise $1.75 billion through a public offering after the move triggered an 18% stock drop last week. Rawlinson explained that the capital raise was a timely, strategic decision intended to secure Lucid’s ongoing operations and growth, particularly as the company gears up to expand production and develop new electric vehicle (EV) models.
The capital raise, which included the sale of nearly 262.5 million shares of common stock, came just two months after Lucid received a $1.5 billion cash infusion from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). Despite this, the stock market reacted harshly, with analysts questioning the timing and necessity of the move, especially given Lucid’s reported liquidity of over $5 billion at the end of the third quarter.
Rawlinson, speaking to CNBC from the company’s offices in suburban Detroit, addressed the concerns by stating that the raise was anticipated. He noted that it was necessary to avoid issuing a “going concern” disclosure, which is required by Nasdaq-listed companies within 12 months of a potential financial runway issue.
However, Wall Street analysts, including Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, saw the capital raise as premature, noting it was “slightly larger and earlier than expected.” RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan echoed these concerns, pointing out that the raise followed closely after the PIF investment, leading some investors to question why Lucid needed additional funds at a time when its share price was depressed.
Despite the market’s negative reaction, Rawlinson remained steadfast, emphasizing that the capital raise extends Lucid’s financial stability through 2026. This financial security will allow Lucid to proceed with its long-term investment plans, which include expanding its factory in Arizona, building a new facility in Saudi Arabia, launching the new Gravity SUV, and enhancing its next-generation powertrain technology.
The stock dilution that accompanied the raise also caused concern among individual investors. However, Rawlinson noted that the continued backing of the PIF—Lucid’s largest shareholder—should be seen as a positive signal of confidence in the company’s future. PIF’s affiliate, Ayar Third Investment Co., purchased an additional 374.7 million shares of Lucid common stock as part of a pro-rata agreement to maintain its 59% ownership stake.
“If we didn’t go pro rata, it surely would be a signal that the PIF were losing faith in us,” Rawlinson emphasized.
Lucid has reported record deliveries in 2024 for its flagship all-electric sedan, the Air, and expects to produce 9,000 vehicles this year. The company also plans to begin production of the Gravity SUV by the end of 2024. However, despite these milestones, Lucid has faced challenges scaling its sales and financial performance due to high costs, slower-than-anticipated EV demand, and brand awareness issues.
Rawlinson acknowledged the capital-intensive nature of the company’s current operations but stressed that these investments are crucial for long-term growth.
As Tesla continues to dominate headlines with its electric vehicles and ambitious plans for autonomous driving, a less-discussed segment of the company is quietly becoming a potential game-changer. Tesla’s energy business, particularly its energy storage division, is showing signs of becoming a major contributor to the company’s bottom line and future growth prospects.
In a recent production and delivery report, Tesla revealed that it had deployed a record-breaking 9.4 GWh (gigawatt hours) of battery energy storage in the second quarter of 2024. This figure represents more than double the amount deployed in the first quarter, signaling explosive growth in this sector.
Tesla’s energy storage solutions range from residential Powerwall units to utility-scale Megapack installations. A single Powerwall can store enough energy to power a small home for a day, while a Megapack installation boasts the capacity to provide electricity to 3,600 homes for an hour. This scalability allows Tesla to cater to a wide range of customers, from individual homeowners to large utility companies and municipalities.
The financial performance of Tesla’s energy business is equally impressive. In the first quarter of 2024, the segment generated $1.6 billion in revenue and $403 million in gross profit. What’s particularly noteworthy is the gross margin of 24.6%, significantly higher than Tesla’s overall gross margin of 17.4% for the same period. This robust profitability comes at a crucial time for Tesla, as its automotive business faces margin pressure due to recent price cuts aimed at stimulating demand.
Wall Street is taking notice of this shift. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, dubbed the Q2 energy deployment figures a “show stealer” and valued Tesla Energy at $36 per Tesla share, or approximately $130 billion. This valuation suggests that the energy business could be a substantial component of Tesla’s market capitalization in the future.
The growth potential for Tesla’s energy storage business is closely tied to broader technological and infrastructure trends. The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence and the subsequent need for more data centers are expected to drive a “multigenerational increase in energy demand,” according to Jonas. This surge in electricity needs, coupled with the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources, positions Tesla’s energy storage solutions as a critical component of future power grids.
Moreover, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States is likely to accelerate investments in grid infrastructure, potentially creating more opportunities for Tesla’s energy products. As utilities and businesses look to modernize and stabilize the power grid, Tesla’s Megapack installations could play a crucial role in load balancing and ensuring reliable power supply.
While much of the investor focus has been on Tesla’s automotive innovations, including the anticipated launch of a lower-priced electric vehicle and the reveal of its robotaxi concept, the energy business could provide a significant upside surprise in upcoming earnings reports. This diversification of revenue streams may also help to stabilize Tesla’s financial performance, reducing its reliance on the cyclical automotive market.
It’s worth noting that Tesla’s energy business isn’t limited to storage solutions. The company also produces solar roof tiles and conventional solar panels, although these products have received less attention in recent years. As the energy storage business continues to grow, it may create synergies with Tesla’s solar products, offering customers comprehensive energy solutions.
As we approach Tesla’s Q2 earnings report in July 2024, investors and analysts will be keenly watching the performance of the energy storage segment. If the strong deployment figures translate into substantial revenue and profit growth, it could mark a turning point in how the market perceives Tesla – not just as an automaker, but as a diversified energy and technology company.
In conclusion, Tesla’s energy storage business is emerging as a powerful growth driver for the company. With its impressive profit margins, scalable solutions, and alignment with global energy trends, this segment could play a crucial role in Tesla’s future success and valuation. As the world continues its transition to sustainable energy, Tesla appears well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced energy storage solutions.
As the world races towards a greener future, a new frontier has emerged in the metals and mining industry – the race to secure rare earth metals. These vital elements, with names like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, are the unsung heroes of the clean energy revolution, essential for everything from electric vehicle motors to wind turbines and rechargeable batteries.
And a recent game-changing discovery by Norwegian mining firm Rare Earths Norway could shake up the investment landscape in this lucrative sector.
Europe’s Rare Earth Jackpot In early June 2024, Rare Earths Norway announced the discovery of Europe’s largest proven deposit of rare earth elements in the Fen Carbonatite Complex, located in southeastern Norway. With an estimated 8.8 million metric tons of total rare earth oxides (TREOs), including a staggering 1.5 million metric tons of magnet-related rare earths, this find is a potential goldmine for savvy investors.
What makes this discovery so significant is that it represents one of the few major rare earth deposits not owned or controlled by China, which currently dominates the global supply chain. As the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, China accounts for a whopping 70% of global rare earth ore extraction and 90% of rare earth ore processing.
This reliance on China has raised concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical risks, prompting a global race to secure alternative sources of these critical minerals.
The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims to extract at least 10% of the bloc’s annual rare earth demand by 2030, and the Norwegian deposit could be a game-changer in achieving this goal.
The Clean Energy Metals Boom The demand for rare earth metals is expected to skyrocket in the coming years as the clean energy transition gathers momentum. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that today’s supply falls short of what is needed to transform the energy sector, highlighting the need for increased exploration and production.
Electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines are among the biggest drivers of rare earth demand. Neodymium, for instance, is a key component in the powerful permanent magnets used in EV motors and wind turbine generators. As the global EV market continues its rapid growth, with sales expected to surge from 6.6 million in 2022 to 26 million by 2030, according to BloombergNEF, the demand for these critical minerals will only intensify.
Investment Opportunities Abound The discovery of Europe’s largest rare earth deposit presents a multitude of investment opportunities for those willing to bet on the metals and mining sector’s transition to cleaner and more sustainable practices.
Rare Earths Norway itself could be a prime target for investors looking to get in on the ground floor. As the company works towards developing the first stage of mining by 2030, its stock could see significant upside potential as progress unfolds.
Beyond direct investment in mining companies, ancillary industries like mineral processing, refining, and specialized equipment manufacturing could also benefit from the rare earth metals boom.
Furthermore, companies focused on recycling and reclaiming rare earth materials from end-of-life products could play a crucial role in addressing supply shortages and reducing environmental impact.
Risks and Challenges Of course, investing in the metals and mining sector is not without its risks. Fluctuating commodity prices, geopolitical tensions, environmental concerns, and regulatory challenges are all factors that investors must carefully consider.
Additionally, developing a rare earth mine is a capital-intensive and time-consuming process, with significant upfront costs and potential delays.
However, for investors with a long-term perspective and a keen eye for emerging trends, the rare earth metals rush could present a unique opportunity to capitalize on the clean energy revolution’s insatiable appetite for these critical materials.
As the world transitions towards a more sustainable future, those who recognize the value of these unsung heroes – the rare earth metals – could be well-positioned to reap substantial rewards.
The United States government has fired a major salvo in the escalating electric vehicle (EV) battleground with China, slapping heavy tariffs on Chinese EV imports as well as key battery materials and components. While the move aims to protect American jobs and manufacturers, it carries significant implications for automakers, suppliers, and investor portfolios on both sides of the Pacific.
At the center of the new trade barriers is a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs entering the U.S. market. The administration has also imposed 25% duties on lithium-ion batteries, battery parts, and critical minerals like graphite, permanent magnets, and cobalt used in EV production.
For American automakers like Tesla, General Motors, and Ford, the tariffs could provide a substantial competitive advantage on home soil. By erecting steep import costs on Chinese EVs, it makes their domestically produced electric models immediately more price competitive versus foreign rivals. This pricing edge could help ramp up EV sales for Detroit’s Big Three as they work to gain traction in this burgeoning market.
The tariffs represent a major headache for Chinese automakers like BYD that have ambitions to crack the lucrative U.S. EV market. BYD and peers like Nio have been counting on American sales to drive their global expansion efforts. The 100% tariff makes their EVs essentially uncompetitive on price compared to domestic alternatives.
However, the calculus could change if Chinese EV makers ramp up battery production and vehicle assembly closer to U.S. shores. BYD has already established a manufacturing footprint in Mexico. If more production is localized in North America, Chinese brands may be able to circumvent the duties while realizing lower logistics costs.
The impacts extend beyond just automakers. Battery material suppliers and lithium producers could face production cuts and lower pricing if Chinese EV demand softens due to fewer exports heading stateside. Major lithium producers like Albemarle and SQM saw shares dip as the tariff news increased global oversupply fears.
But if U.S. electric vehicle adoption accelerates in response to the import barriers, it could create new demand for lithium and other battery materials from domestic sources, analysts note. North American miners and processors may emerge as beneficiaries as automakers look to localize their supply chains.
Of course, trade disputes cut both ways. There are risks that China could retaliate against major U.S. exports or American companies operating in the country. That creates potential headwinds for a wide range of U.S. multinationals like Apple, Boeing, and Starbucks that rely on Chinese production and consumption. Any tit-for-tat actions could ripple across the global economy.
The levies also raise costs across EV supply chains at a vulnerable time. With inflation already depressing consumer demand, pricier batteries and components could curb the pace of electrification both in the U.S. and globally if passed along to car buyers. Conversely, domestic automakers have leeway to absorb higher input expenses to gain market share from Chinese imports.
With EV competition heating up between the world’s two largest economies, investors will need to scrupulously analyze potential winners and losers from the unfolding trade battle across the electric auto ecosystem. In the near-term, the tariffs appear to boost American legacy automakers while putting China’s crop of upstart EV makers on the defensive. Global battery and mineral suppliers face an uncertain shake-up.
Over the longer haul, costs, capital outlays, production geography, and consumer demand dynamics will ultimately determine the fallout’s enduring market impacts. The new levies represent a double-edged sword potentially accelerating the EV transition in the U.S. while fracturing previously integrated cross-border supply lines.
Prudent investors should weigh both the risks and opportunities across the entire EV value chain. While headline-grabbing, tariffs alone won’t determine winners and losers in the seismic shift to electric mobility taking shape globally. Proactively adjusting portfolios to the changing landscape will be crucial for optimizing exposures.
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The electric vehicle revolution continues full-throttle, with Chinese luxury upstart Zeekr making a bold $5.1 billion debut on U.S. public markets this week. In an oversubscribed IPO that priced at the top of its indicated range, the Geely-backed marque has staked an immediate claim as a formidable new contender vying for a slice of the world’s largest EV market.
For investors, Zeekr’s sizzling public premiere throws fresh gas on the opportunities — and risks — of betting on China’s increasingly crowded field of ambitious EV trailblazers. While backing the next disruptive Tesla remains a tantalizing prospect, the playing field has rapidly evolved into a multi-player battlefield where winners and losers will be harshly divisive.
Zeekr certainly checks many of the boxes that have catalyzed the staggering valuations already assigned to Chinese EV leaders like Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto. It boasts sleek vehicle designs, advanced proprietary technologies, and a promising initial sales ramp located at the epicenter of the global EV transformation underway.
The company’s $441 million capital raise provides ample fuel for scaling up manufacturing, developing future products, expanding sales and marketing reach, and potentially complementing its luxury sedan and SUV lineup with additional high-end models. An early valuation of over $5 billion reflects lofty aspirations and embeds expectations for exponential growth in the years ahead.
But it also invites intense scrutiny as Zeekr contends with automotive stalwarts like BYD and upstarts like Nio, along with a rising EV tide from Detroit’s revered marques and European juggernauts. Even perceived victories on sales metrics can prove ephemeral. Just this week, reports indicated Zeekr may have overtaken Tesla for EV deliveries in its home province only to see the more veteran American rival surge back ahead in ensuing days.
With so many players rushing toward electrification, from startups to multi-national conglomerates, successfully navigating the terrain demands more than just leading technologies or early sales momentum. Forging an indelible brand identity, sustainable competitive advantages, and durable customer loyalty could ultimately separate the sector’s long-term winners from its bevy of also-rans.
For Chinese EV entrants like Zeekr, carving out meaningful market share is only step one. Generating consistent profitability and free cash flows will be critical for delivering on the premium valuations embedded in frothy public offerings. So far, even category leaders have struggled to stem losses and burned through billions in pursuing aggressive growth and vertical integration strategies.
Investors bullish on Zeekr’s potential need to weigh the company’s limited operating history and scant financial resources compared to deep-pocketed incumbents and well-capitalized rivals that have amassed years of EV production experience and built extensive supply chains and global sales footprints.
There’s also escalating geopolitical overhang to consider following recent trade tensions and economic maneuverings that elevate risks for indirect Chinese investment exposures. Plenty of speculators have been burned before chasing overheated IPOs at record valuations, only to see shares plummet amid misaligned expectations and deteriorating macroeconomic crosswinds.
Still, for intrepid investors with sky-high conviction in China’s ability to continue dominating EV production value chains, Zeekr’s early innings positioning as a luxe vertical disruptor could allow for savvy entry points. The company hits all the checkboxes that have fueled explosive growth stories in the past, from brash ambitions to cutting-edge technologies to heavyweight strategic backers.
Over the long haul, investor returns in the EV space will ultimately hinge on identifying the handful of players positioned to endure the coming shakeout and cement permanent towerholds. For risk-tolerant portfolios able to withstand volatility, Zeekr’s high-flying market entrance marks a milestone in automotive’s most pivotal technological transition in over a century.
Whether this latest entrant can thrive — or get quickly upended — remains speculative. But the feeding frenzy greeting its arrival underscores insatiable market enthusiasm for staking a claim in the Great EV Migration shaping up on both sides of the Pacific. As this white-hot battlefield heats up, investors must carefully separate the true disruptors reshaping mobility from the litany of overvaluated upstarts soon to be stranded along the road to electrification.
In the rapidly evolving world of technology, Elon Musk and Tesla are shaking things up with what appears to be a strategic shift towards artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. As electric vehicle (EV) demand cools in 2024, Tesla seems to be pivoting its focus to autonomy, Full Self-Driving (FSD), and its hotly anticipated robotaxi program. This potential redirection has piqued the interest of investors, particularly those hunting for undervalued and overlooked opportunities among small and micro-cap stocks.
The signs of transformation at Tesla have been mounting. Most notably, the company recently announced layoffs impacting over 10% of its global workforce, with key executives departing in what Musk framed as part of the “next phase of growth.” Compounding the speculation, reports emerged that Tesla shelved plans for its $25,000 next-generation Model 2 vehicle to prioritize the robotaxi initiative instead.
Musk himself has stoked the flames, proclaiming on Twitter that “Tesla is an AI/robotics and sustainable energy company.” This bold statement marks a clear departure from Tesla’s automotive roots, signaling that a broader pivot to artificial intelligence may be underway.
Analysts tracking the company have been sounding alarms. Emmanuel Rosner at Deutsche Bank believes Tesla’s future now hinges on “cracking the code on full driverless autonomy” – a formidable challenge layered with significant technological, regulatory and operational hurdles. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas went so far as to say “it seems” Tesla is exiting the traditional EV auto industry altogether, though he doesn’t expect vehicle production to cease immediately.
For investors, particularly those scouring small and micro-cap stocks for overlooked gems, Tesla’s AI ambitions could foreshadow seismic shifts ahead. Analysts warn of a “potentially painful transition in ownership base” as dyed-in-the-wool electric vehicle investors may “throw in the towel” and be replaced by tech funds with far longer investment horizons suited for frontier AI bets.
If Tesla does successfully reinvent itself as an AI juggernaut, sector valuations and comparable companies would be turned on their head. Traditional automotive benchmarks may no longer apply, forcing investors to reimagine their investment theses from scratch.
To be sure, the rewards of being at the vanguard of automated driving and machine intelligence could be immense. But the associated risks are equally daunting as Tesla stares down imposing technological barriers, regulatory quicksand, and operational growing pains. For nimble investors, the transformation could open doors to diversify into AI and robotics through an established player boasting visionary leadership and deep pockets.
When Tesla reports first quarter earnings next week, all eyes will be glued to Elon Musk for clarity and insight into precisely where he plans to steer this potential AI metamorphosis. The report could prove revelatory in glimpsing the future trajectory of a company that may be in the midst of redefining itself as the vanguard of a new technological epoch.
For small and micro-cap investors perpetually searching for the next undervalued, under-the-radar opportunity, Tesla’s AI aspirations warrant close scrutiny. While hazards abound, the potential rewards of getting in on the ground floor of a transformative technology upstart could be nothing short of game-changing.
In a move that has sent shockwaves through the electric vehicle industry, Tesla Inc. announced plans to lay off more than 10% of its global workforce. The decision, confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in an internal memo, comes on the heels of a disappointing first-quarter delivery report that missed analyst estimates and left the company with an excess inventory of over 46,000 vehicles.
The layoffs, which are expected to impact at least 14,000 employees out of Tesla’s 140,000-strong workforce, are part of a broader effort to cut costs and increase productivity as the company prepares for its “next phase of growth,” according to Musk’s memo. The move underscores the challenges facing Tesla amid a slowdown in EV demand, both in the United States and globally.
“As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity,” Musk wrote in the memo. “As part of this effort, we have done a thorough review of the organization and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount by more than 10% globally. There is nothing I hate more, but it must be done.”
The announcement has sent shockwaves through the industry, with analysts offering mixed reactions to the news. Dan Ives, a noted Tesla bull at Wedbush Securities, described the layoffs as an “ominous signal” that speaks to tough times ahead for the company. “Demand has been soft globally, and this is an unfortunately necessary move for Tesla to cut costs with a softer growth outlook,” Ives said, adding that the move signals that Musk is navigating a “Category 5 storm.”
However, not all analysts view the layoffs as a negative development. Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, sees the move as consistent with actions undertaken by other automakers – and particularly EV pure-plays such as Rivian and Lucid – amid slowing EV growth rates. “We view the announcement as a sign of the times, but the fact Tesla is taking action to reduce costs amid the slowdown should be positive for the bottom line,” Nelson said.
The layoffs come at a critical juncture for Tesla, which has long been hailed as a pioneer in the electric vehicle space. After years of breakneck growth and ambitious expansion plans, the company now finds itself grappling with a rapidly changing market landscape. Rising interest rates and higher overall prices have dampened consumer demand for electric vehicles, while increased competition from legacy automakers and upstart EV manufacturers has intensified pressure on Tesla to maintain its competitive edge.
Musk has repeatedly emphasized the importance of affordability in driving EV adoption, fueling speculation that Tesla was working on a next-generation vehicle that would start at around $25,000. However, recent reports suggesting that the company had canceled the project were met with a swift denial from Musk, who instead teased the debut of a Tesla robotaxi on August 8.
As Tesla prepares to report its first-quarter earnings on April 23, all eyes will be on the company’s ability to weather the current storm and chart a course for long-term growth. The layoffs, while painful, may be a necessary step in ensuring Tesla’s long-term competitiveness in an increasingly crowded and challenging market.
Ford Motor Company has pumped the brakes on its plans to rapidly electrify its vehicle lineup, announcing delays for two hotly anticipated all-electric models – a three-row SUV and a pickup truck. The automaker cited the need to allow more time for consumer demand and new battery technologies to develop further before committing to these capital-intensive vehicle programs.
The multi-row electric SUV initially targeted for production in 2025 at Ford’s Oakville, Canada plant has been pushed back to at least 2027. And the electric pickup previously slated for late 2025 is now not expected until 2026. This recalibrated roadmap represents a significant detour from Ford’s earlier aggressive EV roadmap, and has notable implications both for Ford and the overall electric vehicle market trajectory.
For Ford, the delays allow the company to be more judicious with its investments at a time when EV adoption has been slower and more costly than many projected. Ford lost $4.7 billion on its electric vehicle efforts in 2023 alone. By taking a more measured approach, Ford can hopefully time these program launches better with consumer readiness and technological advancements that could make the vehicles more compelling and profitable.
However, the setbacks also risk Ford falling behind leaders like Tesla, Hyundai/Kia, and Chinese EV makers BYD and Xiaomi in the fierce electric vehicle battle. Both Tesla and Hyundai/Kia outsold Ford’s EV lineup in the first quarter of 2024, while BYD is gearing up to launch its first electric pickup truck to challenge Ford in that key segment.
For investors, Ford’s pulled-back EV plans could be seen as a prudent way to limit the staggering losses in that part of the business for now. But it also injects more uncertainty around Ford’s long-term EV positioning and market share outlook. Competition is intensifying rapidly with new electric offerings from virtually every major automaker, including emerging players like Xiaomi looking to grab a piece of the EV pie.
Tesla maintains a clear lead, but its growth has slowed as rivals have released more compelling electric models across more vehicle segments. If companies like Hyundai, GM, Volkswagen, BYD and others can continue gaining traction, Ford could find itself scrambling if it is late to market with mainstream electric SUV and truck options that are so pivotal to its product mix.
The EV delays underscore the challenging transitions legacy automakers face in balancing investments for the electric future while still deriving most of their profits from sales of internal combustion engine vehicles today. Stock investors seem to be giving Ford the benefit of the doubt for now, with shares trading close to 52-week highs. But delivering on execution with these postponed electric models has become even more crucial for Ford to remain relevant and profitable over the long haul as new EV competitors emerge.
General Motors (GM) announced Wednesday its largest investment yet to lock up critical raw materials needed for its ambitious electric vehicle (EV) production plans. The Detroit automaker said it will spend $19 billion over the next decade to source cathode materials from South Korean supplier LG Chem.
The materials—including nickel, cobalt, manganese and aluminum—are key ingredients for the lithium-ion batteries that power EVs. Under the agreement spanning 2026-2035, LG Chem will ship over 500,000 tons of cathode materials to GM’s joint battery cell plants with LG spinoff Ultium Cells in the United States.
GM stated this is enough supply for approximately 5 million EVs with an estimated range of over 300 miles per charge. The materials will come from an LG Chem plant currently under construction in Tennessee.
For GM, signing a long-term purchase agreement helps mitigate risks around securing sufficient future EV battery supplies amid intensifying competition. As automakers collectively invest billions to shift their lineups to mostly EVs by 2030, critical mineral shortages could constrain production plans.
“This contract builds on GM’s commitment to create a strong, sustainable battery EV supply chain to support our fast-growing EV production needs,” said Jeff Morrison, GM vice president of global purchasing and supply chain.
The LG Chem deal ranks among the largest—if not the largest—EV supply contract inked by GM to date. It highlights an urgency by the company to lock up raw materials as the global auto industry accelerates its electric shift. GM aspires to exclusively sell EVs by 2035.
However, the 14-year LG Chem agreement also implies GM may be adapting its EV strategy to account for adoption happening slower than anticipated. The original pact was scheduled to expire in 2030, but GM extended it another five years.
After initially forecasting aggressive EV sales growth, GM has pulled back on targets amid steeping battery costs and strained consumer budgets. “We’re also being a little bit prudent about the pace at which the transition occurs,” said CEO Mary Barra.
Nonetheless, GM remains laser-focused on its EV future. It recently announced a $650 million investment to expand production of its profitable full-size SUVs—but as electric versions only by 2024. “We have the manufacturing flexibility to build EVs at scale,” said Barra.
For investors, GM’s major bet on EVs represents an opportunity to capitalize on the immense growth projected in the electric vehicle market over the next decade. Research firm IDTechEx forecasts the EV market will balloon from $287 billion in 2021 to over $1.3 trillion by 2031 as adoption accelerates globally. GM’s plan to phase out gas-powered cars and transition to an all-electric lineup positions it as a leading EV player in this booming new automotive era.
Meanwhile, LG Chem said it aims to “bolster cooperation with GM in the North American market” through the expanded cathode materials agreement. The supplier has jockeyed with China’s CATL for the title of world’s top EV battery maker.
For both LG and GM, ensuring cathode supply security with a US-based plant mitigates geopolitical risks. President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act requires automakers to source critical minerals domestically or from allies to qualify for EV tax credits.
While the road to an all-electric future remains bumpy, GM’s huge bet on sourcing vital battery ingredients shows its commitment to phasing out the internal combustion engine. As Barra stated, “We’re on our way to an all-electric portfolio.”
Electric vehicle technology firm Exro Technologies is acquiring e-mobility drivetrain maker SEA Electric in an all-stock $300 million deal. The strategic merger combines two complementary electric propulsion platforms, setting the stage to disrupt the surging commercial EV space.
For investors, the transaction provides Exro with enhanced scale, revenue, and a clear path to profitability. With SEA’s major OEM customers like Volvo and Toyota, over 1,000 EV system orders are forecast for 2024 generating above $200 million sales.
The consolidated entity targets delivery of complete, next-gen propulsion solutions demanded by fleet operators and manufacturers transitioning to electric. Significant synergies, cross-selling opportunities, and cost savings are expected from the integration of the companies’ technologies.
Massive Addressable Market
Exro’s battery control electronics and SEA’s full electric drive systems together optimize EV power, efficiency, and costs. This unique, end-to-end capability unlocks a share of the enormous global commercial EV market.
Market research firm IDTechEx sees the medium and heavy commercial EV market reaching over $140 billion annually by 2031. With increasingly stringent emissions regulations worldwide, electrifying trucks, buses, construction equipment and beyond offers massive potential.
Exro and SEA aim to be at the forefront of this shift providing the integrated propulsion technologies enabling OEMs to electrify their offerings at scale.
Key Customer Wins
A huge value driver is SEA Electric’s multi-year supply agreements with heavy-duty truck leaders Mack and Hino for thousands of initial EV systems. This provides the merged Exro with committed volumes and Tier 1 auto relationships to leverage.
SEA’s proven proprietary technology underwent extensive validation by the major OEMs. Having signed binding long-term deals, SEA Electric immediately thrusts Exro into a commanding competitive position and cash flow generation.
Clear Path to Profitability
Beyond the technology and growth synergies, the transaction offers investors a profitability catalyst for Exro. Management estimates achieving positive cash flow within 12 months post-close given the ramping order book.
This would mark a key inflection point in Exro’s maturation toward becoming a fully self-sustaining EV enterprise. Profitability could further enhance access to capital to fuel expansion efforts.
The merger is subject to shareholder greenlighting, but the strategic fit and near-term income opportunity make a compelling case. With Polestar and others vying in electric commercial vehicles, Exro seizes pole position through its SEA Electric deal.
Owners of electric vehicles (EVs) are accustomed to plugging into charging stations at home and at work and filling up their batteries with electricity from the power grid. But someday soon, when these drivers plug in, their cars will also have the capacity to reverse the flow and send electrons back to the grid. As the number of EVs climbs, the fleet’s batteries could serve as a cost-effective, large-scale energy source, with potentially dramatic impacts on the energy transition, according to a new paper published by an MIT team in the journal Energy Advances.
“At scale, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) can boost renewable energy growth, displacing the need for stationary energy storage and decreasing reliance on firm [always-on] generators, such as natural gas, that are traditionally used to balance wind and solar intermittency,” says Jim Owens, lead author and a doctoral student in the MIT Department of Chemical Engineering. Additional authors include Emre Gençer, a principal research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI), and Ian Miller, a research specialist for MITEI at the time of the study.
The group’s work is the first comprehensive, systems-based analysis of future power systems, drawing on a novel mix of computational models integrating such factors as carbon emission goals, variable renewable energy (VRE) generation, and costs of building energy storage, production, and transmission infrastructure.
“We explored not just how EVs could provide service back to the grid — thinking of these vehicles almost like energy storage on wheels — but also the value of V2G applications to the entire energy system and if EVs could reduce the cost of decarbonizing the power system,” says Gençer. “The results were surprising; I personally didn’t believe we’d have so much potential here.”
Displacing New Infrastructure
As the United States and other nations pursue stringent goals to limit carbon emissions, electrification of transportation has taken off, with the rate of EV adoption rapidly accelerating. (Some projections show EVs supplanting internal combustion vehicles over the next 30 years.) With the rise of emission-free driving, though, there will be increased demand for energy. “The challenge is ensuring both that there’s enough electricity to charge the vehicles and that this electricity is coming from renewable sources,” says Gençer.
But solar and wind energy is intermittent. Without adequate backup for these sources, such as stationary energy storage facilities using lithium-ion batteries, for instance, or large-scale, natural gas- or hydrogen-fueled power plants, achieving clean energy goals will prove elusive. More vexing, costs for building the necessary new energy infrastructure runs to the hundreds of billions.
This is precisely where V2G can play a critical, and welcome, role, the researchers reported. In their case study of a theoretical New England power system meeting strict carbon constraints, for instance, the team found that participation from just 13.9 percent of the region’s 8 million light-duty (passenger) EVs displaced 14.7 gigawatts of stationary energy storage. This added up to $700 million in savings — the anticipated costs of building new storage capacity.
Their paper also described the role EV batteries could play at times of peak demand, such as hot summer days. “V2G technology has the ability to inject electricity back into the system to cover these episodes, so we don’t need to install or invest in additional natural gas turbines,” says Owens. “The way that EVs and V2G can influence the future of our power systems is one of the most exciting and novel aspects of our study.”
Modeling Power
To investigate the impacts of V2G on their hypothetical New England power system, the researchers integrated their EV travel and V2G service models with two of MITEI’s existing modeling tools: the Sustainable Energy System Analysis Modeling Environment (SESAME) to project vehicle fleet and electricity demand growth, and GenX, which models the investment and operation costs of electricity generation, storage, and transmission systems. They incorporated such inputs as different EV participation rates, costs of generation for conventional and renewable power suppliers, charging infrastructure upgrades, travel demand for vehicles, changes in electricity demand, and EV battery costs.
Their analysis found benefits from V2G applications in power systems (in terms of displacing energy storage and firm generation) at all levels of carbon emission restrictions, including one with no emissions caps at all. However, their models suggest that V2G delivers the greatest value to the power system when carbon constraints are most aggressive — at 10 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour load. Total system savings from V2G ranged from $183 million to $1,326 million, reflecting EV participation rates between 5 percent and 80 percent.
“Our study has begun to uncover the inherent value V2G has for a future power system, demonstrating that there is a lot of money we can save that would otherwise be spent on storage and firm generation,” says Owens.
Harnessing V2G
For scientists seeking ways to decarbonize the economy, the vision of millions of EVs parked in garages or in office spaces and plugged into the grid for 90 percent of their operating lives proves an irresistible provocation. “There is all this storage sitting right there, a huge available capacity that will only grow, and it is wasted unless we take full advantage of it,” says Gençer.
This is not a distant prospect. Startup companies are currently testing software that would allow two-way communication between EVs and grid operators or other entities. With the right algorithms, EVs would charge from and dispatch energy to the grid according to profiles tailored to each car owner’s needs, never depleting the battery and endangering a commute.
“We don’t assume all vehicles will be available to send energy back to the grid at the same time, at 6 p.m. for instance, when most commuters return home in the early evening,” says Gençer. He believes that the vastly varied schedules of EV drivers will make enough battery power available to cover spikes in electricity use over an average 24-hour period. And there are other potential sources of battery power down the road, such as electric school buses that are employed only for short stints during the day and then sit idle.
The MIT team acknowledges the challenges of V2G consumer buy-in. While EV owners relish a clean, green drive, they may not be as enthusiastic handing over access to their car’s battery to a utility or an aggregator working with power system operators. Policies and incentives would help.
“Since you’re providing a service to the grid, much as solar panel users do, you could be paid for your participation, and paid at a premium when electricity prices are very high,” says Gençer.
“People may not be willing to participate ’round the clock, but if we have blackout scenarios like in Texas last year, or hot-day congestion on transmission lines, maybe we can turn on these vehicles for 24 to 48 hours, sending energy back to the system,” adds Owens. “If there’s a power outage and people wave a bunch of money at you, you might be willing to talk.”
“Basically, I think this comes back to all of us being in this together, right?” says Gençer. “As you contribute to society by giving this service to the grid, you will get the full benefit of reducing system costs, and also help to decarbonize the system faster and to a greater extent.”
Actionable Insights
Owens, who is building his dissertation on V2G research, is now investigating the potential impact of heavy-duty electric vehicles in decarbonizing the power system. “The last-mile delivery trucks of companies like Amazon and FedEx are likely to be the earliest adopters of EVs,” Owen says. “They are appealing because they have regularly scheduled routes during the day and go back to the depot at night, which makes them very useful for providing electricity and balancing services in the power system.”
Owens is committed to “providing insights that are actionable by system planners, operators, and to a certain extent, investors,” he says. His work might come into play in determining what kind of charging infrastructure should be built, and where.
“Our analysis is really timely because the EV market has not yet been developed,” says Gençer. “This means we can share our insights with vehicle manufacturers and system operators — potentially influencing them to invest in V2G technologies, avoiding the costs of building utility-scale storage, and enabling the transition to a cleaner future. It’s a huge win, within our grasp.”
The research for this study was funded by MITEI’s Future Energy Systems Center.
Is Hydrogen, Not Lithium-ion, the Automotive World’s Real Future?
Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries provide incredibly functional and versatile storage of electric power for cell phones, laptops, leaf blowers, Bluetooth speakers, and a myriad of other portable electric tools and appliances. But is it the best way to store power to drive the big motors found in a car or tractor-trailer? Hydrogen could provide a lighter, more potent, less environmentally harmful way to store power. And with greater range. Are car companies being steered down an inferior or potentially impossible path?
China plans to have a million hydrogen-powered vehicles on roads by 2035, and Japan, which has a much smaller population, is shooting for 800,000 units by 2030. Perhaps the world’s most abundant element is worth a deeper look before billions are spent on infrastructure to support the Li-ion model.
What’s a Fuel Cell
According to ThoughtCo.com, the most abundant element in the universe is hydrogen, making up about three-quarters of all things. Helium, then oxygen, makes up most of the rest of all matter. By comparison, all of the other elements are rare.
There are combustion engines that run on hydrogen, but it’s fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) that are driven by motors, similar to those now going into Fords, Teslas and Volvos. The FCEV uses a hydrogen fuel cell.
These electric power storing fuel cells consist of a positive (cathode) and a negative electrode (anode), separated by an electrolyte membrane to chemically release electricity. This happens when oxygen from the surrounding air is exposed to the cathode. As liquid hydrogen, which fills the fuel cell in similar quantities that may be required of gas or diesel in a fossil fuel-powered vehicle, accumulates on the anode, they break apart into protons and electrons from the reaction with the electrolyte.
As protons travel through the membrane to the cathode, electrons are forced through a circuit. The circuit includes the electric motor, which releases the power to drive the vehicle down the road, powering an electric motor in the process. The electrons complete the path and reach the protons on the cathode; here, they react with oxygen to create H20 vapor.
Benefits to Cars and Trucks
The emissions of an FCEV, if you can call it that, is pure water. This is the very definition of clean and sustainable for the planet. In fact, the water vapor released is completely recyclable. But with it being composed of two of the most abundant elements, the need to recycle it as a way to store energy doesn’t exist.
Cars and large trucks have a far longer range than battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The fuel cells can convert far more stored hydrogen into electricity than current EV batteries, making their range more in line with what drivers of cars and trucks expect from their vehicles.
The speed of powering up the fuel cell is also similar to refueling a vehicle with petrol. Refilling the fuel cell takes minutes. The combination of longer range and speed to get back on the road makes it a functionally attractive option for drivers.
Downside
Similar to recharging a lithium-ion battery, a power source is needed. Currently, this power source isn’t often wind, solar, or tidal, it’s fossil fuels. Hydrogen produced by coal or oil is seen as having dirty electrons; hydrogen produced by natural gas is called blue hydrogen. Using wind or sun to turn water into its atomic components is possible and does not need to be done in a large refinery in some remote place, but the outlets for this still need to be built.
The main reason is the lack of infrastructure. In order for hydrogen cars to become a viable option, there needs to be a network of refueling stations in place. This is a chicken-and-egg situation as car manufacturers are reluctant to mass-produce FCEVs without the existing infrastructure, and investors are unwilling to build hydrogen refueling stations without strong demand for them. Sales of fuel cell-powered vehicles in the U.S. in 2021 totaled 3,341. There aren’t entrepreneurs or even energy companies racing out to build a hydrogen refilling station when they’re not likely to experience any business.
Take Away
Although hydrogen still isn’t becoming a mainstream option, it is an alternative fuel source that is certainly worth keeping an eye on. With the right infrastructure in place, hydrogen cars could become a viable option for those looking for a clean and sustainable way to power their vehicles — if not now, definitely in the future.
EV Motorcycle Division Merged with SPAC and Goes Full Throttle at Market Open
Harley-Davidson’s EV electric-motorcycle division was just merged with the SPAC (special purpose acquisition corporation) AEA-Bridges (IMPX). The newly merged company, retaining the name LiveWire (LVWR) accelerated from the opening bell on day one. It quickly rose 23.9% in the first half hour of trading. While the company then gravitated back toward its opening price, the performance for these SPAC investors this year far exceeds that of the major indices.
The relative success of this reverse merger demonstrates that so-called blank check companies can still provide value to investors and can still strike deals with a quality target.
The current decline in valuations of companies and assets through 2022 may even serve to make for a target-rich environment for SPACS still trying to find an exceptional deal for their SPAC investors.
LiveWire, which will continue operating under this name and trading with ticker $LVWR, had been a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG). The iconic motorcycle maker and merchandise licenser retained a controlling (75%) interest in the e-motorcycle operation after the deal closed.
The stock had been halted after hitting NYSE circuit breakers on its first trading day (September 27) because of volatility. The morning range has been down as much as 4.2% and up as much as 23.9% in within the first half hour after the open. The stock, which began as an IPO pre-merger at $10, opened the year at $9.99 and is now trading about 10% below. The overall market, as measured by the S&P 500, is down 23.76% on the year.
Livewire likes it to be known that they are the “first and only” electric-vehicle motorcycle company in the U.S. to be listed on the NYSE. They raised approximately $334 million in proceeds from the acquisition.
Harley-Davidson’s stock ran up 1.5% in morning trading. It has climbed 14.8% over the past three months, during that period, the S&P 500 index has lost 5.2%.
More About LiveWire
LiveWire describes itself as the future in the making for the pursuit of urban adventure and beyond.
It draws on its long history, having begun ten years ago as a disruptor from the shops of Harley-Davidson. This gives it a giant head start in the EV sector. LiveWire’s ambition is to be the most desirable electric motorcycle brand in the world. With a dedicated focus on EV, LiveWire plans to develop the technology of the future and to invest in the capabilities needed to lead the transformation of motorcycling.
Harley-Davidson
Harley Davidson intends to build on it’s legend of leading the industry through innovation, evolution and emotion. It imparted on LiveWire the understanding that the product represents more than its utility. For its customers, Harley’s represent the timeless pursuit of adventure and freedom for the soul. The company’s focus is to maintain its place as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world. The 75% ownership in Livewire, plus the cash infusion, should serve to allow its investment in the EV sector to take an even larger role in electrified transportation.
