Thursday, June 11, 2026
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
George Proost, Research Intern, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updating Estimates. We made modest adjustments to our Q2 and full-year 2026 estimates. We now project Q2 revenue of $111.9 million, adjusted EBITDA of $5.9 million, and EPS of $0.01, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $100.9 million, $7.2 million, and $0.04. While our 2026 delivery estimate remains unchanged at 4,100 units, we pulled forward 100 units from the third quarter into the second quarter. We lowered our margin expectations in the second quarter due to product mix. Our full-year revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates are $509.0 million, $46.5 million, and $0.46, respectively, compared to previous estimates of $510.0 million, $41.8 million, and $0.48. We expect a strong second half.
Near-Term Outlook. The value of RAIL’s Q1 2026 backlog increased 13.5% sequentially to approximately $156 million based on 2,058 railcars. We think the company’s order activity has accelerated as customers have started to place orders following a period of deferment. A growing backlog provides revenue visibility for the next several quarters. Corporate 2026 guidance suggests railcar deliveries in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $41 to $50 million.
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