Tonix plans to File a Clinical Trial Notification (CTN) in Japan and Investigational New Drug (IND) application in China to support a registration-enabling Asian Phase 3 study without dosage adjustment based on U.S. registrational Phase 3 data
Tonmya’s market exclusivity is supported by issued patents in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan; cyclobenzaprine is a new chemical entity in Japan and China
New Drug Application (NDA) submission to the U.S. FDA for the approval of Tonmya for the management of fibromyalgia planned for second half of 2024
CHATHAM, N.J., Feb. 27, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: TNXP) (Tonix or the Company), a biopharmaceutical company with marketed products and a pipeline of development candidates, announced positive results from its clinical pharmacokinetic (PK) bridging study of Tonmya™ (also known as TNX-102 SL, cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets) in healthy adult male and female ethnic Japanese and Chinese volunteers. Results indicate that key pharmacokinetic parameters of cyclobenzaprine are comparable in ethnic Japanese and Chinese volunteers to Caucasian volunteers from a prior PK study. Tonmya was generally well tolerated in the ethnic Japanese and Chinese healthy volunteers. The company expects these data to fulfill the requirement for a bridging study, and to support regulatory filings for clinical studies in Japan and China where cyclobenzaprine is a new chemical entity (NCE). Tonix holds issued patents for market exclusivity rights of Tonmya in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
This study characterized the PK profile and dose proportionality of Tonmya following administration in 20 healthy volunteers of documented Japanese or Chinese ancestry, and compared these findings to an existing PK dataset conducted under similar conditions in Caucasian volunteers.
“This bridging study is an important first step as we begin evaluating the potential for approval and marketing Tonmya in Japan and China. The results show a similar pharmacokinetic profile in ethnic Japanese and Chinese volunteers with a Caucasian comparator group,” said Seth Lederman, M.D., Chief Executive Officer of Tonix Pharmaceuticals. “As a result, we believe that these data, with supporting results recently reported from the positive Phase 3 RESILIENT study, are the only clinical data needed to support regulatory filings in Japan and China.”
Dr. Lederman continued, “With patents issued in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan expected to provide market exclusivity into 2034, we believe that Tonmya would be a welcome addition to the therapeutic options for fibromyalgia patients in East Asia and an attractive asset for the right development and commercialization partners in these markets. Cyclobenzaprine is an NCE in both of these countries. We plan to meet with Japan’s Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) and China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) to seek agreement on the development of Tonmya in Japan and China, respectively.”
About the Asia Bridging Study
The study was a randomized, single-dose, open-label, 2-way, crossover study design in ethnic Japanese (N=10) and Chinese (N=10) healthy male and female volunteers. The primary objective of the study was to characterize the PK profile and dose proportionality of Tonmya following administration of 2.8 mg and 5.6 mg (one and two 2.8 mg tablets) under fasting conditions in Japanese and Chinese volunteers, and to retrospectively compare these PK data with existing PK data of both cyclobenzaprine and norcyclobenzaprine from a prior Phase 1 study in Caucasian volunteers dosed under the same conditions. Safety and tolerability were also assessed. A 2.8 mg or 5.6 mg dose (2 X 2.8 mg tablet) of Tonmya was administered sublingually in the morning under fasted conditions. Blood samples were collected pre-dose and up to 15 days post-dose for analyte measurements, with a 28-day washout between periods. The primary PK endpoints were the total amount of cyclobenzaprine and metabolite norcyclobenzaprine in the blood (expressed as the area under the curve (AUC0-T)) and maximum concentration (expressed as Cmax).
Study Results
Pharmacokinetics Ethnic Japanese and Chinese volunteers were considered comparable on PK parameters for cyclobenzaprine following a 2.8 mg and 5.6 mg dose of Tonmya, and dose proportionality was demonstrated in both samples. Given that the similarity in PK profile between Japanese and Chinese volunteers was confirmed, the PK data from the two ethnic groups were pooled for the comparison between Asian (n=20) and Caucasian (n=16) volunteers. The PK parameters of cyclobenzaprine for Japanese, Chinese, and Caucasian groups were similar, with geometric mean ratios falling within the 90% confidence interval.
Safety
Tonmya was shown to be safe and well-tolerated at doses up to 5.6 mg as single sublingual administrations in healthy adult Japanese and Chinese volunteers.
The incidence of adverse events (AEs) and investigational product-related AEs was low. No volunteer discontinued due to an AE.
No clinically significant abnormal findings in laboratory parameters, ECGs, or other safety assessments were noted during the study. No severe AEs and no deaths were reported during the study.
Issued Patents in Japan, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
EUTECTIC FORMULATIONS
Country
Patent Number
Expected Expiry
China
ZL 201480024011.1
03/14/2034
China
ZL201910263541.6
03/14/2034
Hong Kong
HK1218727
03/14/2034
Japan
6310542
03/14/2034
Taiwan R.O.C.
I661825
03/14/2034
TRANSMUCOSAL ABSORPTION
Japan
6259452
06/14/2033
Taiwan R.O.C.
I590820
06/14/2033
Taiwan R.O.C.
I683660
06/14/2033
Taiwan R.O.C.
I642429
06/14/2033
Hong Kong
1209361
06/14/2033
About Tonmya* (also known as TNX-102 SL)
Tonmya is a centrally acting, non-opioid, non-addictive, bedtime medication. The tablet is a patented sublingual formulation of cyclobenzaprine hydrochloride developed for the management of fibromyalgia. In December 2023, the Company announced highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful topline results in RESILIENT, a second positive Phase 3 clinical trial of Tonmya for the management of fibromyalgia. In the study, Tonmya met its pre-specified primary endpoint, significantly reducing daily pain compared to placebo (p=0.00005) in participants with fibromyalgia. Statistically significant and clinically meaningful results were also seen in all key secondary endpoints related to improving sleep quality, reducing fatigue and improving overall fibromyalgia symptoms and function. RELIEF, the first positive Phase 3 trial of Tonmya in fibromyalgia, was completed in December 2020. It met its pre-specified primary endpoint of daily pain reduction compared to placebo (p=0.010) and showed activity in key secondary endpoints.
Tonix plans to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the second half of 2024 for Tonmya for the management of fibromyalgia.
*Tonmya™ is conditionally accepted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as the tradename for TNX-102 SL for the management of fibromyalgia. Tonmya has not been approved for any indication.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.*
Tonix is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing, licensing and commercializing therapeutics to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. Tonix’s development portfolio is focused on central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Tonix’s priority is to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA in the second half of 2024 for Tonmya, a product candidate for which two positive Phase 3 studies have been completed for the management of fibromyalgia. TNX-102 SL is also being developed to treat acute stress reaction as well as fibromyalgia-type Long COVID. Tonix’s CNS portfolio includes TNX-1300 (cocaine esterase) a biologic designed to treat cocaine intoxication with Breakthrough Therapy designation. Tonix’s immunology development portfolio consists of biologics to address organ transplant rejection, autoimmunity and cancer, including TNX-1500, which is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting CD40-ligand (CD40L or CD154) being developed for the prevention of allograft rejection and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. Tonix also has product candidates in development in the areas of rare disease and infectious disease. Tonix Medicines, our commercial subsidiary, markets Zembrace® SymTouch® (sumatriptan injection) 3 mg and Tosymra® (sumatriptan nasal spray) 10 mg for the treatment of acute migraine with or without aura in adults.
*Tonix’s product development candidates are investigational new drugs or biologics and have not been approved for any indication.
Zembrace SymTouch and Tosymra are registered trademarks of Tonix Medicines. All other marks are property of their respective owners.
This press release and further information about Tonix can be found at www.tonixpharma.com.
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “forecast,” “estimate,” “expect,” and “intend,” among others. These forward-looking statements are based on Tonix’s current expectations and actual results could differ materially. There are a number of factors that could cause actual events to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, risks related to the failure to obtain FDA clearances or approvals and noncompliance with FDA regulations; risks related to the failure to successfully market any of our products; risks related to the timing and progress of clinical development of our product candidates; our need for additional financing; uncertainties of patent protection and litigation; uncertainties of government or third party payor reimbursement; limited research and development efforts and dependence upon third parties; and substantial competition. As with any pharmaceutical under development, there are significant risks in the development, regulatory approval and commercialization of new products. Tonix does not undertake an obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. Investors should read the risk factors set forth in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on March 13, 2023, and periodic reports filed with the SEC on or after the date thereof. All of Tonix’s forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by all such risk factors and other cautionary statements. The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date thereof.
BEIJING, Feb. 27, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — QuantaSing Group Limited (NASDAQ: QSG) (“QuantaSing” or the “Company”), a leading online learning service provider in China, today announced that it plans to release its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, March 7, 2024.
The Company’s management will hold an earnings conference call at 07:00 A.M. Eastern Time on Thursday, March 7, 2024 (08:00 P.M. Beijing Time on the same day) to discuss the financial results.
Listeners may access the call by dialing the following numbers:
International: United States Toll Free: Mainland China Toll Free: Hong Kong Toll Free: Conference ID:
1-412-902-4272 1-888-346-8982 4001-201203 800-905945 QuantaSing Group Limited
The replay will be accessible through March 14, 2024 by dialing the following numbers:
International: United States Toll Free: Replay Access Code:
1-412-317-0088 1-877-344-7529 8029802
A live and archived webcast of the conference call will also be available at the Company’s investor relations website at https://ir.quantasing.com.
About QuantaSing Group Limited QuantaSing is a leading online service provider in China dedicated to improving people’s quality of life and well-being by providing lifelong personal learning and development opportunities. The Company is the largest service provider in China’s online adult learning market and China’s adult personal interest learning market in terms of revenue, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan based on data from 2022. By leveraging its proprietary tools and technology, QuantaSing offers easy-to-understand, affordable, and accessible online courses to adult learners under a variety of brands, including QiNiu, JiangZhen, and QianChi, empowering users to pursue personal development. Leveraging its extensive experience in individual online learning services, the Company has also expanded its services to corporate clients including, among others, marketing services and enterprise talent management services.
For more information, please visit: https://ir.quantasing.com.
CALGARY, AB, Feb. 26, 2024 /CNW/ – Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (TSXV:ALV) (OTCQX: ALVOF) announces our reserves as at December 31, 2023 with total proved plus probable (“2P”) reserves of 8.7 MMboe and a before tax net present value discounted at 10% (“NPV10”) of $309.7 million, risked best estimate contingent resources of 5.4 MMboe (NPV10 $126.1 million) and risked best estimate prospective resources of 9.6 Mmboe (NPV10 $184.9 million). The reserves and resources data set forth herein is based on an independent reserves and resources assessment and evaluation prepared by GLJ Ltd. (“GLJ”) dated February 26, 2024 with an effective date of December 31, 2023 (the “GLJ Reserves and Resources Report”).
The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report incorporates Alvopetro’s working interest share of remaining recoverable reserves held by Alvopetro in the Caburé and Murucututu natural gas fields and the Bom Lugar and Mãe-da-lua oil fields as well as Alvopetro’s working interest share of remaining recoverable resources held by Alvopetro in the Murucututu natural gas field. With respect to Murucututu, Bom Lugar, and Mãe-da-lua, Alvopetro’s working interest share is 100%. With respect to the unitized area (the “Unit”) which includes our Caburé and Caburé Leste fields (collectively referred to as “Caburé” in this news release) and two fields held by our third-party partner in the Unit, Alvopetro’s working interest share as of December 31, 2023 was 49.1%, with the remaining 50.9% held by our partner. As previously announced by the Company, the first redetermination of the working interests to each party commenced in the fourth quarter of 2023. The parties engaged an independent expert (the “Expert”) to evaluate the redetermination. Pursuant to the provisions of the UOA, where an Expert is engaged, the Expert’s determination shall be made using what is commonly referred to as the “pendulum” method of dispute resolution. Under this method, the Expert is not required or permitted to provide their own interpretation but is required to select the single Final Proposal (between the two partner’s respective Final Proposals), which, in the Expert’s opinion, provides the most technically justified result of the application of the relevant information and data and material provided to the Expert consistent with the UOA and all related documents. As of the date of this news release, the outcome of the Expert’s decision and the resulting working interest to Alvopetro following the decision is uncertain. The resulting impact on Alvopetro’s reserves and future cash flows may be material and may have a material adverse effect on Alvopetro. The impact on Alvopetro’s working interest will be effective on the first calendar day of the second month following the date of the decision of the Expert, subject to any government approvals that may be required. The decision of the Expert is expected near the end of the first quarter of 2024. The GLJ Reserves and Resource Report and the references included herein are based on the 49.1% interest in Caburé, Alvopetro’s working interest share as of December 31, 2023. The reserves data included in this news release and in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report may be materially impacted following the Expert’s decision.
All references herein to $ refer to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated.
December 31, 2023 GLJ Reserves and Resource Report:
Proved reserves (“1P”) decreased 30% to 2.7 MMboe Proved reserves mainly due to 2023 production and technical revisions related to the 197-1 and 183-1 Murucututu wells. Alvopetro is working to enhance production from these wells with optimizations in 2024.
2P reserves decreased 4% from 9.0 to 8.7 MMboe after 0.8 MMboe of production in 2023. Production in 2023 was offset by improved recovery factors at Caburé due to the agreed Unit development plan and new additions associated with the discovery at the 183-A3 well in the Caruaçu Formation.
Proved plus Probable plus Possible reserves (“3P”) increased to 15.2 MMboe from 14.4 MMboe as a result of additions associated with the discovery at the 183-A3 well in the Caruaçu Formation.
2P NPV10 decreased 11% to $309.7 million due to changes in forecast natural gas prices and 2023 production offset mainly by additional value associated with discovered zones in the Caruaçu Formation on our Murucututu natural gas field.
Risked best estimate contingent resources increased from 2.9 MMboe to 5.4 MMboe at December 31, 2023 with a NPV10 of $126.1 million, increases from December 31, 2022 of 84% and 103% respectively. The increases were associated with the discovery at the 183-A3 well in the Caruaçu Formation.
Risked best estimate prospective resources decreased from 12.5 MMboe to 9.6 MMboe with a NPV10 of $184.9 million, decreases of 23% and 29% respectively from December 31, 2022. The decrease was due primarily to adjustments to the probabilistic models incorporating the logs results for the Gomo zone at the 183-A3 well.
SUMMARY
December 31, 2023 Gross Reserve and Gross Resource Volumes: (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release
PRICING ASSUMPTIONS – FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS
GLJ employed the following pricing and inflation rate assumptions as of January 1, 2024 in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report in estimating reserves and resources data using forecast prices and costs.
Year
Brent Blend Crude Oil FOB North Sea ($/Bbl)
National Balancing Point (UK)($/MMBtu)
NYMEX Henry HubNear Month Contract($/MMBtu)
Alvopetro-Bahiagas Gas Contract$/MMBtu(Current Year)
As of February 1, 2024, Alvopetro’s contracted natural gas price under the terms of our long-term gas sales agreement is based on the ceiling price within the contract. Pricing is forecast to stay slightly below the ceiling for future price adjustments. The ceiling price incorporates assumed US inflation of 2%.
GLJ RESERVES AND RESOURCES REPORT
The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report has been prepared in accordance with the standards contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the “COGE Handbook”) that are consistent with the standards of National Instrument 51-101 (“NI 51-101”). GLJ is a qualified reserves evaluator as defined in NI 51-101. The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report was an evaluation of all reserves of Alvopetro including our working interest share as of December 31, 2023 of the Unit (referred to herein as the Caburé natural gas field), our Murucututu natural gas project, as well as our Bom Lugar and Mãe-da-lua oil fields. The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report also includes an evaluation of the gas resources of our Murucututu natural gas field. In addition to the reserves assigned to our Murucututu field, contingent resource was assigned to the area in proximity to our existing Murucututu reserves, deemed to be discovered. The area mapped by 3D seismic west and north of the area defined as contingent was assigned prospective resource. Additional reserves and resources information as required under NI 51-101 will be included in the Company’s Annual Information Form for the 2023 fiscal year which will be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) by April 30, 2024.
December 31, 2023 Reserves Information:
Summary of Reserves (1)(2)(3)
Light & Medium Oil
Conventional Natural Gas
Natural Gas Liquids
Oil Equivalent
Company Gross
Company Net
Company Gross
Company Net
Company Gross
Company Net
Company Gross
Company Net
(Mbbl)
(Mbbl)
(MMcf)
(MMcf)
(Mbbl)
(Mbbl)
(Mboe)
(Mboe)
Proved
Producing
8
7
11,460
11,000
122
117
2,039
1,957
Developed Non-Producing
142
133
–
–
–
–
142
133
Undeveloped
–
–
2,951
2,818
54
52
546
522
Total Proved
150
140
14,411
13,818
176
169
2,727
2,612
Probable
302
285
31,175
29,859
486
465
5,983
5,726
Total Proved plus Probable
451
425
45,586
43,677
662
634
8,711
8,338
Possible
224
211
34,253
32,785
565
540
6,497
6,215
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible
675
635
79,839
76,462
1,226
1,174
15,208
14,553
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release
Summary of Before Tax Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue – $000s(1)(2)(3)(7)(8)
Undiscounted
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Proved
Producing
114,762
106,922
100,204
94,364
89,230
Developed Non-Producing
6,337
5,157
4,257
3,570
3,040
Undeveloped
18,155
14,371
11,425
9,181
7,467
Total Proved
139,254
126,450
115,886
107,115
99,738
Probable
391,202
263,064
193,771
151,218
122,597
Total Proved plus Probable
530,456
389,514
309,657
258,333
222,335
Possible
538,835
271,641
172,416
124,475
96,580
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible
1,069,291
661,155
482,073
382,808
318,915
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release
Summary of After Tax Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue – $000s(1)(2)(3)(7)(8)
Undiscounted
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Proved
Producing
107,434
100,320
94,209
88,886
84,200
Developed Non-Producing
5,623
4,552
3,728
3,098
2,613
Undeveloped
14,191
11,454
9,192
7,412
6,022
Total Proved
127,248
116,326
107,129
99,396
92,834
Probable
297,522
205,240
153,457
120,748
98,250
Total Proved plus Probable
424,769
321,565
260,586
220,145
191,085
Possible
388,926
204,696
133,885
98,386
77,076
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible
813,695
526,262
394,471
318,531
268,160
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release
Future Development Costs (1)(2)(3)(7)(8)
The table below sets out the total development costs deducted in the estimation of future net revenue attributable to proved reserves, proved plus probable reserves and proved plus probable plus possible reserves (using forecast prices and costs), by field, in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report. Total development costs include capital costs for drilling and completing wells and for facilities but excludes abandonment and reclamation costs.
The future development costs for the Caburé field include Alvopetro’s working interest share (49.1%) for three development wells in the proved category and an additional two development wells in the probable and possible categories. Also included in future development costs for Caburé are costs associated with a facilities upgrade planned at the field for compression of natural gas to be delivered to Alvopetro’s natural gas processing facility. In prior years, Alvopetro reflected all equipment rental payments associated with our Gas Treatment Agreement with Enerflex Ltd. as part of future development costs; however in 2023, such costs are now incorporated within operating expense along with other operating costs associated with the agreement. The future costs associated with equipment rental are also reflected as a capital lease obligation on our financial statements.
The future development costs for the Murucututu field in the proved category include one development well and stimulation costs for the 183-1 and 183-A3 wells and one project to improve recovery from the 197(1) well. The probable category also includes an additional two development wells along with additional stimulation projects at the 183-1 and 183-A3 wells. The possible category includes one additional well.
The future development costs for Bom Lugar in the proved category include costs to stimulate the BL-06 well drilled by Alvopetro in 2023. Costs in the probable category also include one development well and costs for facilities upgrade. Future development costs at the Mãe-da-lua field relate to a stimulation of the existing producing well.
Alvopetro’s share of future development costs are summarized as follows:
$000s, Undiscounted
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Remaining
Total
Proved
Caburé Natural Gas Field
6,993
–
–
–
–
–
6,993
Murucututu Gas Field
2,050
6,885
–
–
–
–
8,935
Bom Lugar Oil Field
–
510
–
–
–
–
510
Mãe-da-lua Oil Field
–
551
–
–
–
–
551
Total Proved
9,043
7,946
–
–
–
–
16,989
Proved Plus Probable
Caburé Natural Gas Field
6,993
2,504
–
–
–
–
9,497
Murucututu Gas Field
3,950
20,655
–
–
–
–
24,605
Bom Lugar Oil Field
–
6,059
–
–
–
–
6,059
Mãe-da-lua Oil Field
–
551
–
–
–
–
551
Total Proved Plus Probable
10,943
29,769
–
–
–
–
40,712
Proved Plus Probable Plus Possible
Caburé Natural Gas Field
6,993
2,504
–
–
–
–
9,497
Murucututu Gas Field
3,950
27,540
–
–
–
–
31,490
Bom Lugar Oil Field
–
6,059
–
–
–
–
6,059
Mãe-da-lua Oil Field
–
551
–
–
–
–
551
Total Proved Plus Probable Plus Possible
10,943
36,654
–
–
–
–
47,597
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release
Reconciliation of Alvopetro’s Gross Reserves (Before Royalty) (1)(2)(3)(8)
Proved(Mboe)
Probable(Mboe)
Proved Plus Probable(Mboe)
Possible(Mboe)
Proved plusProbable plus Possible(Mboe)
December 31, 2022
3,909
5,128
9,037
5,345
14,382
Discoveries
–
1,398
1,398
2,488
3,886
Extensions
–
148
148
(148)
–
Technical Revisions
(400)
(690)
(1,090)
(1,188)
(2,278)
Production
(782)
–
(782)
–
(782)
December 31, 2023
2,727
5,983
8,711
6,497
15,208
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
December 31, 2023 Murucututu Contingent Resources Information:
Summary of Unrisked Company Gross Contingent Resources (1)(2)(5)(6)
Development Pending Economic Contingent Resources
Low Estimate
Best Estimate
High Estimate
Conventional natural gas (MMcf)
20,952
32,062
35,433
Natural gas liquids (Mbbl)
386
591
653
Oil equivalent (Mboe)
3,878
5,935
6,559
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
Summary of Before Tax Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue of Unrisked Contingent Resources- $000s (1)(2)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Undiscounted
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Low Estimate
279,201
146,114
91,400
63,327
46,651
Best Estimate
470,246
226,624
139,760
97,612
73,016
High Estimate
540,860
246,103
148,348
102,781
76,691
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
The GLJ Contingent Resource Report for Murucututu assumes capital deployment starting in 2025 for the drilling and completion of wells with total project costs of $20.8 million and first commercial production in 2025. The information presented herein is based on company net project development costs. The recovery technology assumed for purposes of the estimate is based on established technologies utilized repeatedly in the industry.
There can be no certainty that the project will be developed on the timelines discussed herein. The project is based on a pre-development study. Development of the project is dependent on several contingencies as further described in this news release. Significant positive factors relevant to the estimate include existing production in close proximity, proximity to infrastructure, existing long-term gas sales agreement and corporate commitment to the project. Significant negative factors relevant to the estimate include reservoir performance and the economic viability of the project (with sensitivity to low commodity prices), access to and amount of capital required to develop resources at an acceptable cost, and regulatory approvals for planned activities including stimulations and new infrastructure developments.
Summary of Development Pending Risked Company Gross Contingent Resources(1)(2)(5)(6)
The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report estimates the Chance of Development as the product of two main contingencies associated with the project development, which are: 1) the probability of corporate sanctioning, which GLJ estimates at 95%; 2) the probability of finalization of a development plan, which GLJ estimates at 95%. The product of these two contingencies is 90%. As there is no risk related to discovery, the Chance of Commerciality for the contingent resource is therefore 90% which is the risk factor that has been applied to the Development Risked company gross contingent resources and the net present value figures reported below.
Low Estimate
Best Estimate
High Estimate
Conventional natural gas (MMcf)
18,909
28,936
31,978
Natural gas liquids (Mbbl)
349
533
590
Oil equivalent (Mboe)
3,500
5,356
5,919
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
Summary of Development Pending Risked Before Tax Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue of Contingent Resources- $000s(1)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Undiscounted
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Low Estimate
251,978
131,868
82,489
57,153
42,102
Best Estimate
424,397
204,528
126,134
88,095
65,897
High Estimate
488,126
222,108
133,884
92,760
69,214
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
December 31, 2023 Murucututu Prospective Resources Information:
Summary of Unrisked Company Gross Prospective Resources (1)(2)(4)(6)
Prospective Resources
Low
Best
High
Conventional natural gas (MMcf)
31,903
64,251
101,392
Natural gas liquids (Mbbl)
588
1,184
1,869
Oil equivalent (Mboe)
5,905
11,893
18,768
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
Summary of Before Tax Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue of Unrisked Prospective Resources – $000s (1)(4)(6)(7)(8)
Undiscounted
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Low Estimate
395,126
179,911
96,052
56,094
34,354
Best Estimate
959,658
413,788
227,919
142,785
96,201
High Estimate
1,628,234
680,308
376,039
240,051
165,845
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report for Murucututu prospective resources assumes capital deployment starting in 2026 for the drilling and completion of wells and pipeline expansion costs, with total project costs of $75.8 million and first commercial production in 2026. The information presented herein is based on company project development costs. The recovery technology assumed for purposes of the estimate is based on established technologies utilized repeatedly in the industry.
There can be no certainty that the project will be developed on the timelines discussed herein. Development of the project is dependent on several contingencies as further described in this news release. The project is based on a conceptual study. Significant positive factors relevant to the estimate include existing production in close proximity, proximity to infrastructure, existing long-term gas sales agreement and corporate commitment to the project. Significant negative factors relevant to the estimate include reservoir performance and the economic viability of the project (with sensitivity to low commodity prices), access to and amount of capital required to develop resources at an acceptable cost, and regulatory approvals for planned activities including stimulations and new infrastructure developments.
Summary of Development Risked Company Gross Prospective Resources(1)(2)(4)(6)
The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report estimates the Chance of Commerciality as the product between the Chance of Discovery and the Chance of Development. The Chance of Discovery of the prospective resources has been assessed at 90%, while the Chance of Development has been assessed as the same as for the Contingent Resources described above at 90%. The resulting Chance of Commerciality is 81%, which has been applied to the company gross unrisked prospective resources and the net present value figures reported below.
Low
Best
High
Conventional natural gas (MMcf)
25,876
52,112
82,237
Natural gas liquids (Mbbl)
477
961
1,516
Oil equivalent (Mboe)
4,790
9,646
15,222
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
Summary of Development Risked Before Tax Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue of Prospective Resources- $000s(1)(4)(6)(7)(8)
Undiscounted
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
Low Estimate
320,477
145,922
77,906
45,497
27,864
Best Estimate
778,356
335,614
184,859
115,810
78,027
High Estimate
1,320,623
551,782
304,997
194,700
134,513
See ‘Footnotes’ section at the end of this news release.
Upcoming 2023 Results and Live Webcast
Alvopetro anticipates announcing its 2023 fourth quarter and year-end results on March 19, 2024 after markets close and will host a live webcast to discuss the results at 8:00am Mountain time, on March 20, 2024. Details for joining the event are as follows:
The webcast will include a question-and-answer period. Online participants will be able to ask questions through the Zoom portal. Dial-in participants can email questions directly to socialmedia@alvopetro.com.
References to Company Gross reserves or Company Gross Resources means the total working interest share of remaining recoverable reserves or resources held by Alvopetro before deductions of royalties payable to others and without including any royalty interests held by Alvopetro. With respect to the Caburé natural gas field, Alvopetro’s working interest was 49.1% as of December 31, 2023 but is subject to redetermination, the first of which is currently underway. The outcome of this redetermination is unknown and the resulting impact on the reserves presented herein may be material.
(2)
The tables above are a summary of the reserves of Alvopetro and the net present value of future net revenue attributable to such reserves as evaluated in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report based on forecast price and cost assumptions. The tables summarize the data contained in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report and as a result may contain slightly different numbers than such report due to rounding. Also due to rounding, certain columns may not add exactly.
(3)
Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
(4)
Prospective Resources are defined in the COGE Handbook as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered and even if discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion. Prospective Resources are further subdivided in accordance with the level of certainty associated with recoverable estimates assuming their discovery as described in footnote 6.
(5)
Contingent Resources are defined in the COGE Handbook as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage. Contingent Resources are further classified in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates as described in footnote 6 and may be subclassified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status. The Contingent Resources estimated in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report are classified as “economic contingent resources”, which are those contingent resources that are currently economically recoverable. All such resources are further sub-classified with a project status of “development pending”, meaning that resolution of the final conditions for development are being actively pursued. The recovery estimates of the Company’s contingent resources provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated resources will be recovered. There is uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. Actual recovered resource may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
(6)
Low Estimate: This is considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90 percent probability (P90) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate.
Best Estimate: This is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent probability (P50) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
High Estimate: This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the high estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 10 percent probability (P10) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.
(7)
The net present value of future net revenue attributable to Alvopetro’s reserves and resources are stated without provision for interest costs and general and administrative costs, but after providing for estimated royalties, production costs, development costs, other income, future capital expenditures, well abandonment and reclamation costs for only those wells assigned reserves and material dedicated gathering systems and facilities. The net present values of future net revenue attributable to Alvopetro’s reserves and resources estimated by GLJ do not represent the fair market value of those reserves. Other assumptions and qualifications relating to costs, prices for future production and other matters are summarized herein. The recovery and reserve and resource estimates of the Company’s reserves and resources provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves and resources will be recovered. Actual reserves and resources may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
(8)
GLJ’s January 1, 2024 escalated price forecast is used in the determination of future gas sales prices under Alvopetro’s long-term gas sales agreement and for all forecasted oil sales and natural gas liquids sales. See https://www.gljpc.com/sites/default/files/pricing/Jan24.pdf for GLJ’s price forecast.
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’svision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
All amounts contained in this news release are in United States dollars, except as otherwise noted.
Abbreviations:
1P
=
proved reserves
2P
=
proved plus probable reserves
3P
=
proved plus probable plus possible reserves
Mbbl
=
thousands of barrels
Mboe
=
thousand barrels of oil equivalent
MMbtu
=
million British Thermal Units
MMcf
=
million cubic feet
MMboe
=
million barrels of oil equivalent
$000s
=
thousands of U.S. dollars
Oil and Natural Gas Advisories
Oil and Natural Gas Reserves
The disclosure in this news release summarizes certain information contained in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report but represents only a portion of the disclosure required under NI 51-101. Full disclosure with respect to the Company’s reserves as at December 31, 2023 will be included in the Company’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2023 which will be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) on or before April 30, 2024. The GLJ Reserves and Resources Report incorporates Alvopetro’s working interest share of remaining recoverable reserves and resources. With respect to the Caburé natural gas field, Alvopetro’s working interest was 49.1% as of December 31, 2023 but is subject to redetermination, the first of which is currently underway. The outcome of this redetermination is unknown and the resulting impact on the reserves and the net presented value of future net revenue attributable to such reserves as presented herein may be material.
All net present values in this press release are based on estimates of future operating and capital costs and GLJ’s forecast prices as of December 31, 2023. The reserves definitions used in this evaluation are the standards defined by COGEH reserve definitions and are consistent with NI 51-101 and used by GLJ. The net present values of future net revenue attributable to the Alvopetro’s reserves estimated by GLJ do not represent the fair market value of those reserves. Other assumptions and qualifications relating to costs, prices for future production and other matters are summarized herein. The recovery and reserve estimates of the Company’s reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
Contingent Resources
This news release discloses estimates of Alvopetro’s contingent resources and the net present value associated with net revenues associated with the production of such contingent resources as included in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such contingent resources and the estimated future net revenues do not necessarily represent the fair market value of such contingent resources. Estimates of contingent resources involve additional risks over estimates of reserves. Full disclosure with respect to the Company’s contingent resources as at December 31, 2023 will be contained in the Company’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2023 which will be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) on or before April 30, 2024.
Prospective Resources
This news release discloses estimates of Alvopetro’s prospective resources included in the GLJ Reserves and Resources Report. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered and even if discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion. Estimates of prospective resources involve additional risks over estimates of reserves. The accuracy of any resources estimate is a function of the quality and quantity of available data and of engineering interpretation and judgment. While resources presented herein are considered reasonable, the estimates should be accepted with the understanding that reservoir performance subsequent to the date of the estimate may justify revision, either upward or downward. Full disclosure with respect to the Company’s prospective resources as at December 31, 2023 will be contained in the Company’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2023 which will be filed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) on or before April 30, 2024.
Boe Disclosure
The term barrels of oil equivalent (“boe”) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet per barrel (6Mcf/bbl) of natural gas to barrels of oil equivalence is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. All boe conversions in this news release are derived from converting gas to oil in the ratio mix of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil.
Forward-Looking Statements and Cautionary Language
This news release contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “will”, “expect”, “intend” and other similar words or expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information. Forward‐looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. A number of factors could cause actual results to vary significantly from the expectations discussed in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect current assumptions and expectations regarding future events. Accordingly, when relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, Alvopetro cautions readers not to place undue reliance on these statements, as forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties. More particularly and without limitation, this news release contains forward-looking information concerning the redetermination and Alvopetro’s working interest share of the unitized area and the potential impact of the redetermination on Alvopetro, plans relating to the Company’s operational activities, proposed development activities and the timing for such activities, capital spending levels and future capital costs, the expected natural gas price, gas sales and gas deliveries under Alvopetro’s long-term gas sales agreement. The forward‐looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Alvopetro, including but not limited to expectations and assumptions concerning the timing of regulatory licenses and approvals, equipment availability, the success of future drilling, completion, testing, recompletion and development activities, the performance of producing wells and reservoirs, well development and operating performance, expectations regarding Alvopetro’s working interest and the outcome of any redeterminations, environmental regulation, including regulation relating to hydraulic fracturing and stimulation, the ability to monetize hydrocarbons discovered, the outlook for commodity markets and ability to access capital markets, foreign exchange rates, general economic and business conditions, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, weather and access to drilling locations, the availability and cost of labour and services, the regulatory and legal environment and other risks associated with oil and gas operations. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect. Actual results achieved during the forecast period will vary from the information provided herein as a result of numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors. Although Alvopetro believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information because Alvopetro can give no assurance that it will prove to be correct. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Additional information on factors that could affect the operations or financial results of Alvopetro are included in our annual information form which may be accessed on Alvopetro’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca). The forward-looking information contained in this news release is made as of the date hereof and Alvopetro undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
Texas-based Atlas Energy Solutions announced a definitive agreement this week to acquire major frac sand producer Hi-Crush in a deal valued at $450 million. The acquisition will expand Atlas’ production capacity and logistics capabilities, cementing its position as the largest integrated frac sand provider in the vital Permian Basin oilfields.
The upfront payment includes $150 million in cash and $175 million in Atlas common stock. An additional $125 million deferred cash payment was also agreed in the form of a seller’s note. The deal is expected to close within weeks, likely before the end of Q1 2024.
For oilfield services provider Atlas, the purchase significantly bulks up its presence across the Permian, where the majority of US shale oil production is centered. Atlas gains Hi-Crush’s sand mining and processing facilities in the basin as well as its advanced logistics services.
Most notably, Hi-Crush operates the OnCore processing network, which uses mobile sand mine and coating units that can be quickly deployed near well sites. OnCore’s distributed approach minimizes transportation costs and complex logistics getting sand to customers.
Hi-Crush also owns the Pronghorn logistics business, which provides sand delivery and wellsite storage services across multiple shale basins. Pronghorn will complement Atlas’ own Dune Express last-mile trucking operations in the Delaware Basin portion of the Permian.
Combined, the deal creates a frac sand production and delivery juggernaut with true basin-wide coverage. Atlas CEO Bud Brigham called the deal “transformative for our industry, employees, customers, and shareholders.”
Doubling Down on the Permian
The Permian Basin is the epicenter of US shale, accounting for over 40% of total oil production. With activity rebounding amid higher energy prices, reliable local sources of frac sand are in high demand.
Atlas says the acquired assets will boost its total sand production capacity to around 28 million tons per year. Over 80% of its expanded capacity is already contracted, guaranteeing strong cash flow.
Management expects Hi-Crush to contribute $110-125 million in additional EBITDA in 2024 alone. The valuation of about 3 times EBITDA is seen as attractive by Atlas.
Combined operations across its Midland and Delaware Basin hubs will also drive significant cost efficiencies. Optimized logistics and asset utilization could yield over $20 million in annual savings by 2026 according to Atlas projections.
The single largest driver of well productivity gains in shale has been using more sand per frack. Sand volumes have doubled over the past decade. Reliable regional sand mines and efficient last-mile delivery offered by the merged Atlas-Hi-Crush will be key to this trend continuing.
Deal Could Kickstart Consolidation
The Atlas-Hi-Crush deal is the largest merger in the frac sand space since Covia Holdings combined Fairmount Santrol and Unimin Corporation in 2018. It could mark the return of consolidation for an industry that remains fragmented.
With sand demand direct correlated to drilling activity, the sector saw major distress when oil prices cratered during the pandemic. A wave of sand mine closures and bankruptcies ensued.
Now with activity resurging, the remaining suppliers are ripe for consolidation. As the new clear capacity leader, Atlas will be a prime mover in any forthcoming deals. The company could look to expand beyond its Permian base into other major shale basins like the Eagle Ford and Bakken.
Competitors will also look to bulk up to remain competitive. Smaller players reliant on 3rd party logistics may need to team up to match the integrated model that Atlas has now assembled via M&A.
Another motivator for deals is the large capital investments needed for next-generation sand mines and processing plants. Building greenfield capacity from scratch is challenging, making acquiring existing assets logical. Larger players can also negotiate better long-term customer contracts.
What’s Next for Atlas
For Atlas leadership, executing the integration of Hi-Crush assets and personnel will be the top priority in coming months. Realizing projected synergies through joint logistics operations will be vital.
The company will also continue building out its Dune Express trucking fleet and last-mile transloading facilities. Completing this Permian-wide sand delivery network remains core to its strategy.
With sand capacity now exceeding demand, maintaining a cost advantage will be crucial if drilling activity slows. Optimized logistics and Basin-wide scale gives Atlas flexibility to withstand any turbulence ahead.
Thanks to its ample cash reserves and still-prudent balance sheet, the company also has latitude to continue pursuing acquisitions or invest in new technologies that widen its moat. More deals to bolster Atlas’ capabilities beyond frac sand provision could be in the cards.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Capital Raise. After the market close on Thursday, Kratos announced the pricing of an underwritten offering of 16,666,667 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $18.00 per share. The net proceeds to Kratos from the offering, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions, are expected to be approximately $288 million. Kratos also granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 2,500,000 shares of common stock. All of the shares in the offering are to be sold by Kratos. The offering is expected to close on February 27, 2024, subject to customary closing conditions. We would note Noble Capital was part of the underwriting group.
Uses. Kratos expects to use the net proceeds to facilitate its long-term strategy, including potential investment in facilities, expanding manufacturing capacity, and anticipated capital expenditures for expansion of current sole-source/single award programs and high probability pipeline opportunities. Other uses are to further strengthen the Company’s balance sheet in anticipation of upcoming customer and partner decisions and source selection on additional large, new program and contract opportunities and for general corporate purposes, including paydown of debt.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. Energy Fuels also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and is ramping up commercial-scale production of REE carbonate. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, as well as REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Energy Fuels reported financial results for the quarter and the year that were largely expected. Earnings for 2024 were $99.8 million or $0.62 per share. However, the positive results were due to a $119 million or $0.73 per share nonrecurring gain on the sale of property. Excluding the sale, the company would have reported a $20 million or $0.12 per share loss for the year. Quarterly losses were slightly higher than expected on limited sales.
Energy Fuel’s liquidity position has grown dramatically in recent quarters. As of December 31, 2023, the company had $222.34 million of working capital and no debt. With such a large liquidity position, the company is well positioned to expand operations without seeking external financing. This includes restarting uranium mining operations but could also fund all or most of the proposed REE Oxide circuit expansion.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Setting the Table. ACCO management had laid out a number of key priorities at the beginning of 2023 to set the Company on a path of sustainable, profitable growth. The key elements of the program were achieved. Gross margin improved 428 basis points y-o-y, restructuring efforts are right-sizing SG&A and the facility footprint, inventory was reduced by $68 million, and strong FCF enabled debt to be reduced by $88 million.
But Top Line Challenges Remain. Comparable revenue fell 6.5% y-o-y. Weak computer and gaming accessory sales, lower than expected “return-to-office” trends, and tight inventory management by customers all impacted the top line. We expect a number of these challenges to reverse course in 2024, although the pace will be measured and likely benefit 2H24.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate led by legendary investor Warren Buffett, was in the news this week after posting strong fourth quarter financial results. However, the company’s stock price slipped after Buffett warned of more modest growth prospects ahead and new legal risks facing one of Berkshire’s businesses were highlighted.
In his widely-read annual letter to shareholders released over the weekend, the 93-year-old Buffett reported that Berkshire’s operating profit soared 21% to $37.4 billion in 2022. These stellar results were driven by gains in the company’s massive insurance operations, which include brands like GEICO and General Re. Berkshire also boasted enormous cash reserves topping $167 billion by the end of last year.
This kind of performance has led some investors to speculate that Berkshire may soon reach a $1 trillion valuation, joining an elite club of companies like Apple and Microsoft. But Buffett himself threw cold water on expectations that Berkshire would continue to post outsized growth, stating “All in all, we have no possibility of eye-popping performance.”
In plain English, Buffett was telling shareholders not to expect Berkshire to significantly outperform the overall stock market going forward. He admitted the conglomerate, which owns over 90 businesses ranging from railroads to candy makers, now lacks enough attractive investment options to “move the needle.”
Still, Buffett assured investors that conservatively-managed Berkshire is “built to last” even in turbulent times. He also confirmed that his trusted deputy, Greg Abel, is ready to smoothly take over managing the company when needed.
But some cracks in Berkshire’s fortress-like foundation were revealed this week when the company disclosed new legal risks facing one of its utilities, PacificCorp. PacificCorp, which operates as Rocky Mountain Power, may be sued by the federal government over alleged failure to prevent a major wildfire in Oregon in 2020.
Buffett’s letter predicted the total costs of wildfires, which are becoming larger and more frequent across the Western U.S., will weigh on Berkshire’s utility earnings for many years. This warning likely contributed to the company’s stock slipping from all-time highs reached after the strong quarterly results were announced.
While Berkshire still posted impressive overall gains last year, the legal overhang on one of its utilities and Buffett’s clear message that Berkshire’s best growth is likely in the past may temper investor enthusiasm going forward. The legendary investor, who has delivered 20% average annual returns to shareholders over 50 years, is clearly preparing investors for more modest goals ahead.
Some analysts believe Berkshire’s stock may be approaching full valuation given the cautious outlook expressed by Buffett. The company’s enormous size also limits its ability to find investments large enough to significantly boost future growth. However, Berkshire still possesses an unparalleled collection of businesses that generate steady profits year after year. For long-term investors, Berkshire remains a rock-solid holding despite its fainter future growth prospects.
Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q4 Results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $864.0 million, edging our estimate of $857.0 million by 0.8%. Notably, Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was a strong $216.0 million, surpassing our estimate of $189.0 million by 14.3%. The results are illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. The quarter was driven by lower than expected operating expenses. Importantly, the company is anticipating a favorable influx of high margin political revenue in 2024.
2024 outlook. In our view, the company stands to benefit from several favorable factors in 2024. Notably, we are forecasting $655.0 million in high margin political revenue for full year 2024, which should aid the company in its debt reduction efforts. Additionally, the company’s production companies are guided to produce $110.0 million in revenue in 2024, a step up from $86 million in 2023. We believe there could be positive upside in our 2024 estimates.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Exceeds Q4 estimates. Q4 was solid, beating our revenue estimate by 3.8% and our adj. EBITDA estimate by 13.4%. Revenues were down 9.6% to $615.8 million due to the absence of year earlier Political and weak National advertising. Recent cost initiatives allowed the company to improve adj. EBITDA margins to 19.1% versus our 17.5% estimate.
Improving advertising trends. The company reported a 1% increase in Core advertising with a favorable outlook of flat to up 1% for the upcoming quarter. Furthermore, its Network business appears to be on the mend, with significantly higher (30%) scatter prices heading into an upfront season. Lastly, management provided guidance for Political that was higher than our estimate to a range of $210 million to $250 million.
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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
CEO Steps Away. Friday, Schwazze announced Nirup Krishnamurthy’s resignation as Schwazze Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board of Directors, effective February 20, 2024, due to personal reasons. In his place, Forrest Hoffmaster, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, has been appointed to the additional role of interim CEO.
Forrest Hoffmaster. Mr. Hoffmaster joined the Company in January 2023, bringing over 30 years of executive experience in finance and operations for both public and private companies. Prior to Schwazze, Mr. Hoffmaster served as CEO of New Seasons Market, a specialty gourmet food retailer, where he navigated the company through one of the most disruptive periods in the retail grocery industry. Under his leadership, Mr. Hoffmaster implemented a focused growth and cost optimization program, enabling the company to grow EBITDA by over 30% in two years. Prior to New Seasons Market, Forrest held leadership positions with other leading grocers, including Whole Foods Market and H-E-B.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Upgrade to Outperform. We are upgrading our rating on Lifeway shares to Outperform from Market Perform with a $14 price target. Since peaking on November 14th at an intra-day high of $17.33, LWAY shares have drifted lower, closing Friday at $10.51, modestly above the lowest closing price since mid-November of $9.38.
A Look Back. LWAY shares have been on a roller coaster ride since mid-August 2023, driven by a combination of improving operational performance, including a number of record quarters, and takeover speculation, in our view. The shares ran up from $6.50 in mid-August to $12.40 by mid-September, back below $10 by the end of September, back above $12 by mid-November, plunging to $9.38 on November 13th before hitting a 52-week high of $17.33 ten days later. Since the 52-week high, the shares have drifted lower. Notably, during the run up, ADV often exceeded 100,000 shares per day, compared to less than 20,000 prior to the run up. More recently, ADV has settled in the 20,000-40,000 range.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
AT&T’s stock fell over 2% on Thursday as a prolonged nationwide wireless network outage left tens of thousands of customers without service for nearly 12 hours. The incident highlighted the fragile nature of even robust technology systems and underscored the financial risks that outages pose for tech companies.
The outage began early Thursday morning as customers across AT&T’s coverage areas found themselves unable to make calls, send texts, or access the internet on their mobile devices. AT&T has not disclosed the exact cause, but said a mistake during network upgrades triggered the disruption. At its peak, over 74,000 customers reported issues to tracking site DownDetector, with the true number likely much higher.
For nearly the entire business day on Thursday, AT&T technicians scrambled to identify and resolve the problem. Service was gradually restored through the late morning and early afternoon, until the company declared the outage fully fixed by 3pm Eastern Time.
AT&T posted an apology on social media and said keeping customers connected is its top priority. However, many users vented anger and distrust over the company’s lack of transparency during the incident. The outage also raised alarm among public safety officials, with some police departments reporting 911 call centers being overwhelmed by people testing whether their phones worked.
The tech failure could not have come at a worse time for AT&T, which has invested heavily in promoting the reliability of its wireless network. Outages of this magnitude are extremely rare among top US carriers, representing a black eye for AT&T. It also stoked fears of potential security breaches, despite no evidence currently that the incident was caused by hackers.
AT&T’s stock fell 2.4% on Thursday as news of the outage spread. While the drop was in line with broader market declines, it highlighted the direct financial impact technology outages can inflict on companies. Network reliability and uptime are key competitive advantages for telecom firms. Losing service risks customers defecting to rival providers, while also incurring significant repair costs.
Beyond the immediate share price hit, the outage threatens to tarnish AT&T’s brand reputation with both consumers and enterprise clients. Trust is difficult to regain once damaged in the tech world. And promises of redundancy and resilience ring hollow in light of a nationwide failure.
For tech companies in general, outages are a lurking vulnerability that can rapidly erase market value. A six-hour Facebook outage last year wiped more than $6 billion off the company’s market capitalization as investors reacted to the impacts. While rare, even brief disruptions undermine faith in tech firms’ abilities to deliver services.
Thursday’s incident demonstrates the fragility hidden beneath the sheen of advanced networks and technology infrastructure. No system is immune to unforeseen failures, whether from technical glitches, human errors or malicious attacks. For AT&T and its competitors, the priority must be minimizing downtime through proactive maintenance, redundancy mechanisms and rapid response programs.
Moving forward, AT&T will work aggressively to assure customers and shareholders that its network has been shored up and risks have been addressed. But the outage will likely not be forgotten soon, neither by frustrated consumers nor by skittish investors. It reinforces the reality that even multi-billion dollar tech giants are vulnerable when their complex systems falter. For the telecom industry, upholding continuously reliable service remains an endless and uphill battle.
