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Stock Market Launch Never Happened in September

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com
Image Credit: NASA Kennedy (Flickr)

Looking Back at September and Forward to the Fourth Quarter

September is behind us, and so are the first three quarters of 2022. Yet still, other than the U.S. dollar, there hasn’t been a moonshot in any major market or sector. September 2022 is best characterized by saying a few markets tried to get off the ground, but not unlike the Artemis rocket that was scheduled to go to the moon on September 3rd, the launches were scrubbed and are now on-hold. Maybe they’ll fly in October.

Below we look at the month behind us in stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto. We do this with confidence that they won’t all be grounded forever – and look to find clues as to how the final quarter of the year may treat investors.

Major Market Indicators Tracked Closely

Source: Koyfin

Out of the four closely followed benchmarks, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow 30, there was no runaway index either massively outperforming or underperforming. During the second week in September, the indexes teased that they were ready for take-off after they strung together several consecutive days where they were each up 1%-3%.

Reasons for the bounce that week include that a few of the indexes were approaching a technical floor, through which they’d be considered in a bear market. Stocks rarely break through support levels on their first try. In fact, they often bounce by a large degree.

Adding to the stock market’s climb to as much as up 4% on the month were strong economic numbers, which gave some participants comfort that the economy is still producing jobs and will withstand the Fed’s withdrawing accommodation. Others saw the sign of strong numbers as a sign that the Fed would drive up rates, drag the economy into a recession, and then ease policy by bringing rates back down. This forward-looking reasoning had them bullish.

Eventually, as the month moved along and Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, continued reiterating the central bank’s resolve, stock market investors stopped fighting the Fed – from  September 12th, until month-end, the indexes dropped between 12%-14%

Sectors Within S&P Index

Source: Koyfin

The two standout sectors within the S&P 500 include Health Care which was least negative at down 1.90%, and Biotech, down 4.42%. While this performance doesn’t seem like something to get overly excited about, the dynamics which have taken these two only half as down as the broader index are worth looking into. Both health care and biotech had once been in the stratosphere during the early and mid-pandemic era. As the potential for further benefit waned, these segments fell from their stratospheric highs. Currently, there is potential as large pharmaceutical companies are flush with cash from the pandemic, sit with patents approaching expiration, and biotech, with fresh patents and current R&D on the next generation of medicine, running low on funds. These conditions are ripe for partnerships and acquisitions to accelerate between the two. This may include some individual biotech companies surprising investors with some very good news in the coming months.

On the weak side is technology, which also is still coming down from the pandemic-induced high. The index is down 11.09%. Utilities are also underperforming the broader indexes as higher fuel costs for electric companies and higher interest rates erode the attractiveness of dividends paid on these stocks.

Gold and Bitcoin Performance

Source: Koyfin

Two non-equity assets, each claiming to be a safe haven during any market, political, or economic upheaval, outperformed the broader stock markets during September. Gold maintained its steady as she goes pace with very little volatility, while bitcoin had dramatic days on the up and downside, with each less than 3% lower than where they began the month.

Fixed Income Performance

Source: Koyfin

Interest rates were the topic on everyone’s mind throughout the month. Government bonds are valued 3.48% less than they were at the start of September, with uncharacteristic volatility late in the month as markets first began to fear the worst and then reversed with the BOE announcement that it would resume a less restrictive and possibly easier monetary policy.

High-yield bonds more closely track equities (and even bitcoin) than the interest rate markets. These bonds of less creditworthy issuers spent almost half the month in the positive before underperforming treasuries, which were in the red for all of the month. Tips or inflation-indexed treasuries shed 6.89% for its investors. The securities are sold off a spread to a similar maturity treasury, so they will generally move in the same direction. The Fed holds on its balance sheet a large (as a percentage outstanding) of these securities, this has disrupted the bonds’ use as either a hedge against inflation or a gauge to see where the markets think inflation is heading.

A number of Fed governors spoke during the last week of September. They are united in their message that they are only just beginning to move monetary policy to a place where the economy is in a healthy situation where inflation isn’t eroding the dollar’s purchasing power. None have begun to hint that the policy statement from the November 2nd meeting will look any different than the last.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/09/03/artemis-launch/

www.koyfin

Bassett Furniture (BSET) – Reports Fiscal Third Quarter Results

Posted on by cpatches


Friday, September 30, 2022

Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and retails home furnishings in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Logistical Services. It is involved in the design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of furniture products to a network of company-owned and licensee-owned Bassett Home Furnishings (BHF) retail stores, as well as independent furniture retailers; and wood and upholstery operations. As of September 16, 2017, the company operated a network of 91 company-and licensee-owned stores. It also provides shipping, delivery, and warehousing services to customers in the furniture industry. In addition, the company owns and leases retail store properties. It also distributes its products through other multi-line furniture stores, Bassett galleries or design centers, specialty stores, and mass merchants. Bassett Furniture Industries was founded in 1902 and is based in Bassett, Virginia.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q22 Results. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter ended August 27, 2022 was $118 million, up 12.5% over the prior year period. Wholesale revenue rose 8.3% to $79 million, while Retail revenue rose 21.0% to $70.9 million. Excluding a $4.6 million one-time gain, operating income was $6.1 million, up 22.1%. Bassett reported net income from continuing operations of $7.8 million, or $0.84 per share, compared to net income from continuing operations of $3.4 million, or $0.35 per share, in the prior year. We had forecast revenue of $120 million and EPS from continuing operations of $0.65.

Retail the Star. Once again, Bassett’s retail network was the quarter’s star performer, with “best ever” third quarter deliveries of $70.9 million and $4.5 million of operating profit. Segment operating profits in the first nine months exceed any full year performance to date.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Axcella Therapeutics (AXLA) – Interim Analysis Shows Signs of Early Efficacy

Posted on by cpatches


Friday, September 30, 2022

Axcella is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering a new approach to treat complex diseases using compositions of endogenous metabolic modulators (EMMs). The company’s product candidates are comprised of EMMs and derivatives that are engineered in distinct combinations and ratios to restore cellular homeostasis in multiple key biological pathways and improve cellular energetic efficiency. Axcella’s pipeline includes lead therapeutic candidates in Phase 2 development for the treatment of Long COVID and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and the reduction in risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) recurrence. The company’s unique model allows for the evaluation of its EMM compositions through non-IND clinical studies or IND clinical trials. For more information, please visit www.axcellatx.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Axcella Announced Positive Interim NASH Results.  An interim analysis from the Phase 2b EMMPACT Study of AXA1125 in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) showed improvements in measures of liver fibrosis and liver fat. The data presented was from patients who had been treated for 12 and 24 weeks of the 48-week treatment period. The study is continuing as planned, and we believe the interim data raise the probability of success for the trial.

Study Design and Analysis. The EMMPACT study was designed to test two doses of AXA1125 against placebo.  Patients receive either placebo, low dose (45.2g/day), or high dose (67.8g/day) twice daily for 48 weeks. It has a target enrollment of 270 patients with biopsy-confirmed Stage 2 or Stage 3 NASH, divided into three arms with 90 patients each. The interim analysis used non-invasive tests to evaluate reduction in liver fibrosis and inflammation.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Wisdom of Crowds in Predicting and Forecasting

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: slgckgc (Flickr)

Nobel Prizes, Election Outcomes and Sports Championships – Prediction Markets Try to Foresee the Future

Who will win Nobel Prizes in 2022? Wikipedia posits a handful of contenders for Physiology or Medicine, about 20 different possible winners for the Peace Prize and several dozen potential winners of the Literature Prize. But since the Swedish Academy never announces nominees in advance, there are few insights indicating who will win, or even if the eventual winner is on a given list.

Are there ways to predict the future winners?

The Delphi approach, named after the oracle in ancient Greece, gathers multiple rounds of opinions from a group of experts to generate a prediction. Gambling firms provide betting odds on the likelihood that specific competitors will win. Crowdsourced competitions, such as the Yahoo Soccer World Cup “Pick-Em,” have participants predict individual contest winners and then aggregate the results.

Another approach is a prediction market that provides insight into what people expect will happen in the future by creating a stock market-like environment to capture the “wisdom of the crowd.” Groups and crowds often are collectively smarter than individuals when many independent opinions are combined.

This article was republished  with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Daniel O’Leary, Professor of Accounting and Information Systems, University of Southern California.

As an accounting and information systems professor at the University of Southern California, I investigate issues related to the crowd both in my research and in my teaching. Here’s how prediction markets harness what the crowd thinks to forecast the future.

The Wisdom of the Market

In prediction markets, participants buy and sell stocks. Each stock’s price is tied to a different event happening in the future. Information about the future is captured in the stock prices.

For instance, in a prediction market focused on the Nobel Peace Prize, maybe Greta Thunberg is trading at $0.10 while Pope Francis is trading at $0.15, and the stocks for the entire group of candidates add up to sum to $1. The prices reflect the traders’ aggregated beliefs about the probability of their winning – a higher price means a higher perceived likelihood of winning.

Examples of Prediction Markets

Anyone can get in on the prediction game by trading on one of these markets or even just checking out which stocks are up or down.

Market nameURLAffiliated university
Iowa Electronic Marketshttps://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/University of Iowa
PredictIthttps://www.predictit.org/University of Wellington
Hollywood Stock Exchangehttps://www.hsx.com/N/A
Polymarkethttps://polymarket.com/marketsN/A
Table: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND  Get the data

Prediction markets have various ways of setting stock prices. The Iowa Electronic Markets took following approach during the 2020 U.S. presidential election:

  • Stock DEM2020 pays off $1 if the Democratic candidate wins, and $0 otherwise,
  • Stock REP2020 pays off $1 if the Republican candidate wins, and $0 otherwise.

The stock prices capture the probabilities of each candidate winning, in two mutually exclusive events. If the price of DEM2020 is $0.52, then that is treated as the probability of that event occurring – a 52% chance. If DEM2020 is $0.52, then REP2020 is $0.48.

Prediction markets may use real money, or they can use play money. Google’s market used what it called “Goobles,” while the Hollywood Stock Exchange uses Hollywood Dollars. The Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt, both sponsored by universities, use real money. Researchers have found that there are no differences in the performance of markets using real money versus those using play money.

Although using play money makes it possible for many people to participate, one potential challenge for prediction markets that don’t use real money is gaining and maintaining interested participants. Despite using different devices to keep up engagement, such as leader boards indicating who has accumulated the biggest portfolio, there is literally no money on the table to keep participants interested in the market.

Market participants who know more about the game might better predict winners. Image Credit: Marco verch (Flickr)

Participants Bring Their Knowledge to the Market

Prediction markets and crowdsourcing do not function in a vacuum.

Researchers have found that information about events finds its way into the prediction processes from various sources. For example, when I analyzed the relationship between the betting odds and the Yahoo Pick-Em crowd’s guesses for the 2014 FIFA World Cup, I found that there was no statistical difference between the proportion of correct guesses in each. My conclusion is that either the crowd’s guesses incorporated the betting odds information or the crowd’s guesses added up to the same result by some other means.

Generally, prediction markets use play money or are run by non-profit universities to study markets, elections and human decision making. Although gambling houses can take bets for many activities, external prediction markets are more restricted in the activities they can be used to investigate, and are typically limited to elections. However, internal prediction markets – run within a corporation, for instance – can explore almost any topic of interest.

Typically, prediction markets function better with informed participants. Although using so-called inside information is illegal in some markets, including the New York Stock Exchange, there generally are no such limitations in prediction markets, or other crowdsourcing approaches. If those with inside information were to participate in a prediction market, it would likely lead to more accurate stock prices, as insiders make trades informed by their knowledge. However, if others find out that a participant has inside information, then they may very well try to gain access to that info, follow the insider’s actions or even decide to leave the unfair market.

The accuracy of prediction markets depends on many factors, including who is in the market, what their biases are and how heterogeneous the participants are. Accuracy can also depend on how many people are in the market – more is generally better – and the extent to which they are informed about the events of interest.

Researchers have found that prediction markets have outperformed polls in presidential elections roughly 75% of the time. But accurate results are not guaranteed. For example, prediction markets did not correctly predict that Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidency in 2016.

Who Will be in Stockholm for the Ceremony?

In 2011, Harvard University economics faculty had a real-money prediction market site, referred to as “the world’s most accurate prediction market.” The site had been used for predicting the Nobel Prize in Economics, but Harvard advised the site to shut down.

I couldn’t find any current public prediction markets active for the 2022 Nobel Prizes.

For the moment, perhaps the closest to participating in a Nobel prediction market would be to place a bet at one of the gambling houses that takes bets on the Nobel Prizes. Or find a Nobel Prize Pick-Em site, propose such an event to an existing prediction market or build your own prediction market using some of the available software.

If you know of one, let me know, I want to play.

New Data Indicates Inflationary Recession

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Tom Fisk (Pexels)

Inflation Still Surprisingly Strong and Economy Weak

Two important numbers were released on the last day of September. One was based on old news but significant in its finality; it’s the final revision to GDP for the second quarter. The next is viewed as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE deflator. The final GDP number will make it more difficult for public officials or pundits to suggest we can avoid a recession in 2022, and the second did not give any hope that the Fed will have any reason to change course on tightening.

A Recession By Any Other Name

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the indicator that reflects the amount of output produced quarterly in a country. In the U.S., the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases two estimates of quarterly GDP, known as the advance and preliminary estimates, in the two months before the release of the final number. So until the final number prints, the number GDP measure is subject to revision.

On September 30, 2022, the Final GDP report for the second quarter was released by the BEA. The report shows that GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1). This decline in economic output follows a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022.

Do two-quarters of a receding economy, based on GDP, indicate the U.S. is in the recessionary part of the business cycle? Most textbooks would agree with that definition. However, there is a Business Cycle Dating Committee within the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that determines and labels where the nation is within the economic cycles; they have not made any declaration.

So far, in 2022, the economy has not experienced any economic growth. If the six months of contraction is eventually deemed an official recession, it will thus far have been a shallow one, characterized by strong employment.

Price Increases Higher than Expected

Inflation is still on many investor’s radar. The Fed is targeting reducing inflation to its 2% target. The inflation measure they use for this target is the PCE Deflator. That measure was released this morning, and it validates the aggressive actions being taken by the Federal Reserve. And suggests the Fed has a lot more work to do.

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which the Fed targets at 2%, rose 6.2% in August from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported. Underlying inflation, as measured by a core reading that excludes food and energy prices, rose 4.9% from 4.7% previously.

These numbers are well in excess of the Fed’s target and seemingly trending upward. Expectations are the Fed will provide up to another 150 bp increase (1.50%) over the coming months. This would cause the Fed Funds rate to trade near 5%. There is nothing in today’s release that would likely cause expectations to change.

Stagflation?

High inflation and negative growth have many repeating the word “stagflation”. Stagflation has one more element missing, which is high unemployment. The current economic conditions in the U.S. include high demand for workers, this shortage actually helps feed into the inflation the Fed is trying to tame.

Take Away

The economy contracted slightly in the second quarter of 2022. The decline in production was smaller than measured during the first quarter. Federal Reserve policymakers saw one more reason to keep applying the economic brake pedal by taking money out of the economy, increasing upward rate pressures. The Fed caused rates to rise from 40-year lows faster than any time since the 1980s.

Stock market participants are factored into the Fed’s policy only to the extent that market moves may impact inflation or employment. The markets (stocks, bonds, real estate, gold) are negative on the year. There are some who suggest the Fed will use this as a signal to alter policy, if the Fed bowed to any of the markets listed here, the sign of weakness might actually cause a market collapse in stocks and bonds.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-2nd

https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2022-and-annual-update

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seen-keeping-big-rate-131814754.html

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2014/may/do-revisions-to-gdp-follow-patterns

https://www.learningmarkets.com/who-decides-when-we-are-in-a-recession

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Release – Ayala Pharmaceuticals to Host Key Opinion Leader Webinar on Desmoid Tumors

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research, News, and Market Data on AYLA

September 29, 2022

  • Event will feature a review of data from part A of the Phase 2/3 RINGSIDE trial of AL102
  • KOLs and management to present on Thursday, October 6th @ 8 AM ET

REHOVOT, Israel and WILMINGTON, Del., Sept. 29, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ayala Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: AYLA), a clinical-stage oncology company focused on developing and commercializing small molecule therapeutics for patients suffering from rare tumors and aggressive cancers, today announced that it will host a key opinion leader (KOL) webinar on unmet medical needs and evolving treatment landscape of desmoid tumors on Thursday, October 6, 2022, at 8:00 am ET.

The webinar will include presentations by Professors Bernd Kasper, MD, Ph.D., from the Mannheim University Medical Center, and Robin Jones, MD, from The Royal Marsden Hospital and Institute of Cancer Research. Prof. Kasper will discuss the current treatment landscape for desmoid tumors and Prof. Jones will review the positive data from Part A of the ongoing Phase 2/3 RINGSIDE trial of AL102 that were presented at ESMO 2022.

Ayala management will provide a company update. A live Q&A session will follow the formal presentations. To register for the event, please click here.

Professor Robin Jones is Head of the Sarcoma Unit at The Royal Marsden Hospital and Team Leader in Sarcoma Clinical Trials at The Institute of Cancer Research. Professor Jones received his medical training at Guy’s and St Thomas’ Hospital and his oncology training at The Royal Marsden. Between 2010 and 2014 he was Head of the Sarcoma Program at the University of Washington/Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. His research focuses on developing novel therapies for soft tissue sarcomas and he is currently working on a number of trials of investigational agents as well as laboratory-based studies.

Professor Bernd Kasper is Chair of the Mannheim Cancer Center (MCC) at the Mannheim University Medical Center. Professor Kasper received his MD from Heidelberg University in 2000 and also studied at the Imperial College School of Medicine, Jules Bordet Institute in Brussels, and in South Kerala, India. He has a lifetime professional dedication to patient care and research in soft tissue sarcomas, desmoid-type fibromatosis, and gastrointestinal stromal tumors and is the Principal Investigator of several national and international trials.

AL102 is being evaluated in the ongoing RINGSIDE pivotal Phase 2/3 clinical trial in desmoid tumors. Positive interim results from Part A, the Phase 2 segment of this study, were presented at ESMO 2022, showing efficacy across all cohorts, with early tumor responses that deepened over time. AL102 was well tolerated, which could allow for long term treatment of patients. The company has initiated Part B of RINGSIDE (Phase 3), as well as enrolling patients in an open label extension study.

About the RINGSIDE study
The RINGSIDE pivotal Phase 2/3 study is a randomized global multi-center trial. Part A of the study is evaluating the efficacy, safety, tolerability, and tumor volume by MRI after 16 weeks of AL102 in patients with desmoid tumors. It enrolled 42 patients and is evaluating 3 doses of AL102. Patients who participated in Part A are eligible to enroll into an open-label extension study at the Part B selected dose of 1.2 mg daily, and long-term efficacy and safety will be monitored.

Part B of the study, the Phase 3 segment, has been initiated. This is a double-blind, placebo-controlled segment enrolling up to 156 patients with progressive disease, comparing AL102 at 1.2 mg once daily to placebo. The primary endpoint for Part B is progression-free survival (PFS) with secondary endpoints including objective response rate (ORR), duration of response (DOR), tumor volume reduction, and patient-reported Quality of Life (QOL) measures. For more information on the RINGSIDE Phase 2/3 study with AL102 for the treatment of desmoid tumors, please visit ClinicalTrials.gov and reference Identifier NCT04871282 (RINGSIDE).

About Desmoid Tumors
Desmoid tumors, also called aggressive fibromatosis or desmoid-type fibromatosis, are rare connective tissue tumors that typically arise in the upper and lower extremities, abdominal wall, head and neck area, mesenteric root, and chest wall with the potential to arise in additional parts of the body. Desmoid tumors do not metastasize, but often aggressively infiltrate neurovascular structures and vital organs. People living with desmoid tumors are often limited in their daily life due to chronic pain, functional deficits, general decrease in their quality of life and organ dysfunction. Desmoid tumors have an annual incidence of approximately 1,700 patients in the United States and typically occur in patients between the ages of 15 and 60 years. They are most commonly diagnosed in young adults between 30-40 years of age and are more prevalent in females. Today, surgery is no longer regarded as the cornerstone treatment of desmoid tumors due to a high rate of recurrence post-surgery and there are currently no FDA-approved systemic therapies for the treatment of unresectable, recurrent or progressive desmoid tumors.

About Ayala Pharmaceuticals
Ayala Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a clinical-stage oncology company focused on developing and commercializing small molecule therapeutics for patients suffering from rare tumors and aggressive cancers. Ayala’s approach is focused on predicating, identifying and addressing tumorigenic drivers of cancer through a combination of its bioinformatics platform and next-generation sequencing to deliver targeted therapies to underserved patient populations. The company has two product candidates under development, AL101 and AL102, targeting the aberrant activation of the Notch pathway with gamma secretase inhibitors to treat a variety of tumors including Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma (ACC), T-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (T-ALL), Desmoid Tumors and Multiple Myeloma (MM). AL101, has received Fast Track Designation and Orphan Drug Designation from the U.S. FDA and is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial for patients with ACC (ACCURACY) bearing Notch activating mutations. AL102 is currently in a Pivotal Phase 2/3 clinical trials for patients with desmoid tumors (RINGSIDE). For more information, visit www.ayalapharma.com. 

Contacts:

Investors:
Joyce Allaire
LifeSci Advisors LLC
+1-617-435-6602
jallaire@lifesciadvisors.com

Ayala Pharmaceuticals:
+1-857-444-0553
info@ayalapharma.com 

Media:
Tricia Persad-Bevil
JPA
+44-7792-524442

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements contained in this press release that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements, including statements relating to our development of AL102, the promise and potential impact of AL102, the timing and results of our clinical trials or readouts, the prevalence of desmoid tumors and the treatment required to manage the disease, and the design of our clinical trials. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. The words ”may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “could,” “intend,” “target,” “project,” “estimate,” “believe,” “predict,” “potential” or “continue” or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words.

These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the following: we have incurred significant losses since inception and anticipate that we will continue to incur losses for the foreseeable future; we are not currently profitable, and we may never achieve or sustain profitability; we will require additional capital to fund our operations, and if we fail to obtain necessary financing, we may not be able to complete the development and commercialization of AL101 and AL102; we have a limited operating history and no history of commercializing pharmaceutical products, which may make it difficult to evaluate the prospects for our future viability; we are heavily dependent on the success of AL101 and AL102, our most advanced product candidates, which are still under clinical development, and if either AL101 or AL102 does not receive regulatory approval or is not successfully commercialized, our business may be harmed; due to our limited resources and access to capital, we must prioritize development of certain programs and product candidates; these decisions may prove to be wrong and may adversely affect our business; the outbreak of COVID-19, may adversely affect our business, including our clinical trials; our ability to use our net operating loss carry forwards to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations; our product candidates are designed for patients with genetically defined cancers, which is a rapidly evolving area of science, and the approach we are taking to discover and develop product candidates is novel and may never lead to marketable products; we were not involved in the early development of our lead product candidates, therefore, we are dependent on third parties having accurately generated, collected and interpreted data from certain preclinical studies and clinical trials for our product candidates; enrollment and retention of patients in clinical trials is an expensive and time-consuming process and could be made more difficult or rendered impossible by multiple factors outside our control; if we do not achieve our projected development and commercialization goals in the timeframes we announce and expect, the commercialization of our product candidates may be delayed and our business will be harmed; our product candidates may cause serious adverse events or undesirable side effects, which may delay or prevent marketing approval, or, if approved, require them to be taken off the market, require them to include safety warnings or otherwise limit their sales; the market opportunities for AL101 and AL102, if approved, may be smaller than we anticipate; we may not be successful in developing, or collaborating with others to develop, diagnostic tests to identify patients with Notch-activating mutations; we have never obtained marketing approval for a product candidate and we may be unable to obtain, or may be delayed in obtaining, marketing approval for any of our product candidates; even if we obtain FDA approval for our product candidates in the United States, we may never obtain approval for or commercialize them in any other jurisdiction, which would limit our ability to realize their full market potential; we have been granted Orphan Drug Designation for AL101 for the treatment of ACC and may seek Orphan Drug Designation for other indications or product candidates, and we may be unable to maintain the benefits associated with Orphan Drug Designation, including the potential for market exclusivity, and may not receive Orphan Drug Designation for other indications or for our other product candidates; although we have received Fast Track designation for AL101, and may seek Fast Track designation for our other product candidates, such designations may not actually lead to a faster development timeline, regulatory review or approval process; we face significant competition from other biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies and our operating results will suffer if we fail to compete effectively; we are dependent on a small number of suppliers for some of the materials used to manufacture our product candidates, and on one company for the manufacture of the active pharmaceutical ingredient for each of our product candidates; if we are unable to enter into new collaborations, or if these collaborations are not successful, our business could be adversely affected; enacted and future healthcare legislation may increase the difficulty and cost for us to obtain marketing approval of and commercialize our product candidates, if approved, and may affect the prices we may set; if we are unable to obtain, maintain, protect and enforce patent and other intellectual property protection for our technology and products or if the scope of the patent or other intellectual property protection obtained is not sufficiently broad, our competitors could develop and commercialize products and technology similar or identical to ours, and we may not be able to compete effectively in our markets; we may engage in acquisitions or in-licensing transactions that could disrupt our business, cause dilution to our stockholders or reduce our financial resources; and risks related to our operations in Israel could materially adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.

These and other important factors discussed under the caption “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 28, 2022 and our other filings with the SEC, could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made in this press release. Any such forward-looking statements represent management’s estimates as of the date of this press release. New risk factors and uncertainties may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible to predict all risk factors and uncertainties. While we may elect to update such forward-looking statements at some point in the future, except as required by law, we disclaim any obligation to do so, even if subsequent events cause our views to change. Although we believe the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any date subsequent to the date of this press release.

Release – Motorsport Games and Frankie Zombie Announce Partnership to Expand Audience Offerings With Upcoming Artistic and Philanthropic Activations

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research, News, and Market Data on MSGM

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

THE CONTEMPORARY ARTIST AND LEADING MOTORSPORTS VIDEO GAME PUBLISHER COLLABORATE WITH LIVE FAST MOTORSPORTS FOR UPCOMING NASCAR CUP SERIES AND CHARITY EVENTS

MIAMI, Sept. 29, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) —  Motorsport Games Inc. (NASDAQ: MSGM) (“Motorsport Games”), a leading racing game developer, publisher and esports ecosystem provider of official motorsport racing series throughout the world, announces today its partnership with contemporary artist Frankie Zombie. The partnership, done in collaboration with Live Fast Motorsports, will see a series of charity activations and a custom-made, stock-car paint scheme for the No. 78 Ford Mustang.

The Frankie Zombie-designed custom paint scheme will be showcased and driven by BJ McLeod during the NASCAR Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400 on October 23rd at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Prior to watching McLeod race in the custom wrapping, fans will be able to download the paint scheme as part of the NASCAR 21: Ignition Victory Edition, 2022 Throwback Pack DLC, Season Pass 2 and  Season Pass Complete for Xbox, PlayStation and PC through the Steam store. Players that purchase NASCAR 21: Ignition Victory Edition, Season Pass 2 or Season Pass Complete will have access to the custom-designed scheme on October 6, weeks before the car hits the track in real life.

In addition to designing the custom wrap for the NASCAR Cup Series race, Zombie will be appearing at a series of in-person, live painting events during the weekends of the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (October 8th and 9th) and the aforementioned Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (October 22nd and 23rd). At the events, two additional car hoods with custom-designed wrappings done by Zombie will be raffled off for charity, with the proceeds going to Speedway Children’s Charity and the NASCAR Foundation, a  leading charity that works to improve the lives of children who need it most in the NASCAR communities, through the Speediatrics Children’s Fund and the Betty Jane France Humanitarian Award.

“We’re excited to kick off our partnership with Frankie Zombie, as it will push our philanthropic efforts forward, pay respect to the art community and provide a new way for our community to interact with the sport,” said Jay Pennell, Brand Manager, NASCAR at Motorsport Games. “It is an ongoing priority for Motorsport Games to take new approaches in expanding our audience offerings and events and we feel Frankie is the perfect person to help bridge fans together through crossover appeal. Frankie is a one-of-a-kind artist, and we hope this upcoming initiative will not only welcome a new community into the Motorsport Games ecosystem, but give our pre-existing fans even more unique and creative elements to our in-person activations and game offerings.”

“Converting a NASCAR stock car into a piece of art is not something you would typically see nor expect, and as a lifelong fan of racing, I cannot wait to see the design putting in 400 laps of racing,” said Frankie Zombie. “I’m excited to partner with Motorsport Games and Live Fast Motorsports to bring these paint schemes to life for fans and help them gain a new appreciation for art and vice versa. I encourage everyone to come to the live painting events to be a part of some great initiatives for charity.”

To keep up with the latest Motorsport Games news, visit www.motorsportgames.com and follow on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.

About Motorsport Games:
Motorsport Games, a Motorsport Network company, is a leading racing game developer, publisher and esports ecosystem provider of official motorsport racing series throughout the world. Combining innovative and engaging video games with exciting esports competitions and content for racing fans and gamers, Motorsport Games strives to make the joy of racing accessible to everyone. The Company is the officially licensed video game developer and publisher for iconic motorsport racing series across PC, PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo Switch and mobile, including NASCAR, INDYCAR, 24 Hours of Le Mans and the British Touring Car Championship (“BTCC”), as well as the industry leading rFactor 2 and KartKraft simulations. RFactor 2 also serves as the official sim racing platform of Formula E, while also powering Formula 1™ centers through a partnership with Kindred Concepts. Motorsport Games is an award-winning esports partner of choice for 24 Hours of Le Mans, Formula E, BTCC, the FIA World Rallycross Championship and the eNASCAR Heat Pro League, among others. Motorsport Games is building a virtual racing ecosystem where each product drives excitement, every esports event is an adventure and every story inspires.

Forward-Looking Statements: Certain statements in this press release which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and are provided pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any statements in this press release that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed forward-looking statements. Words such as “continue,” “will,” “may,” “could,” “should,” “expect,” “expected,” “plans,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements concerning the timing, participants and expected benefits of the activations, such as expanding the Company’s audience offerings and events, welcoming a new community into the Motorsport Games ecosystem, and giving the Company’s pre-existing fans even more unique and creative elements to its in-person activations and game offerings. All forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, many of which are generally outside the control of Motorsport Games and are difficult to predict. Examples of such risks and uncertainties include, without limitation: difficulties, delays in or unanticipated events that may impact the timing and expected benefits of the activations, such as due to unexpected changes in the event participants, as well as less than anticipated participation in the activations. Factors other than those referred to above could also cause Motorsport Games’ results to differ materially from expected results. Additional factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements can be found in Motorsport Games’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021, its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC during 2022, as well as in its subsequent filings with the SEC. Motorsport Games anticipates that subsequent events and developments may cause its plans, intentions and expectations to change. Motorsport Games assumes no obligation, and it specifically disclaims any intention or obligation, to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as expressly required by law. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and should not be relied upon as representing Motorsport Games’ plans and expectations as of any subsequent date. Additionally, the business and financial materials and any other statement or disclosure on, or made available through, Motorsport Games’ website or other websites referenced or linked to this press release shall not be incorporated by reference into this press release.

Website and Social Media Disclosure:

Investors and others should note that we announce material financial information to our investors using our investor relations website (ir.motorsportgames.com), SEC filings, press releases, public conference calls and webcasts. We use these channels, as well as social media and blogs, to communicate with our investors and the public about our company and our products. It is possible that the information we post on our websites, social media and blogs could be deemed to be material information. Therefore, we encourage investors, the media and others interested in our company to review the information we post on the websites, social media channels and blogs, including the following (which list we will update from time to time on our investor relations website):

  Websites  Social Media  
  motorsportgames.com  Twitter: @msportgames & @traxiongg
  traxion.gg  Instagram: msportgames & traxiongg
  motorsport.com  Facebook: Motorsport Games & traxiongg
   LinkedIn: Motorsport Games
   Twitch: traxiongg
   Reddit: traxiongg

The contents of these websites and social media channels are not part of, nor will they be incorporated by reference into, this press release.

Press:  
ASTRSK PR
motorsportgames@astrskpr.com 

Photos accompanying this announcement are available at

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/714df437-1ea4-412f-9b6d-108858d26757

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/bbf0bbda-17da-4d49-89cf-c4500483b666

Release – Ocugen, Inc. to Present at Chardan’s 6th Annual Genetic Medicines Conference

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research, News, and Markt Data on OCGN

September 29, 2022

MALVERN, Pa., Sept. 29, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ocugen, Inc. (“Ocugen” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: OCGN), a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines, today announced that Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of Ocugen, will participate in an in-person fireside chat at the Chardan 6th Annual Genetic Medicines Conference being held October 3-4, 2022 in New York, NY.

Details regarding Dr. Musunuri’s fireside chat are as follows:

Event: Chardan 6th Annual Genetic Medicines Conference
Date: October 4, 2022
Time: 8:30 – 8:55 a.m. ET
Location: Westin Grand Central Hotel
Webcast: Live Fireside Chat

A live video webcast beginning at 8:30 a.m. ET on the day of the presentation will be available on the events page of the Ocugen investor site. The webcast replay will be archived for 90 days following the event.

About Ocugen, Inc.
Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines that improve health and offer hope for patients across the globe. We are making an impact on patient’s lives through courageous innovation—forging new scientific paths that harness our unique intellectual and human capital. Our breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with a single product, and we are advancing research in infectious diseases to support public health and orthopedic diseases to address unmet medical needs. Discover more at www.ocugen.com and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We may, in some cases, use terms such as “predicts,” “believes,” “potential,” “proposed,” “continue,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “may,” “could,” “might,” “will,” “should,” or other words that convey uncertainty of future events or outcomes to identify these forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to numerous important factors, risks, and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ materially from our current expectations. These and other risks and uncertainties are more fully described in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the risk factors described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the quarterly and annual reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release. Except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements contained in this press release whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, after the date of this press release.

Contact:
Tiffany Hamilton
Head of Communications
IR@ocugen.com 

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Rediscovering the Special Sauce

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com


Thursday, September 29, 2022

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Production surpassing expectations. InPlay announced production levels of 9,600 boe/d, a significant increase over 2022-2Q average of 9,063 BOE/d. Management now believes 2022 production will be at the upper half of a previously stated range of 9,150-9,400 BOE/d. so we are raising our production forecast to 9,400 BOE/d. In addition, two other wells will be brought to production in the next few days leading us to believe production will continue to grow into the fourth quarter.



Drilling success leads to more activity. The company is adding two Extended Reach Horizontal (ERH) wells in 2022. We suspect InPlay may be drilling ERH wells to forego building infrastructure. In addition to drilling longer well spurs, management announced that it is planning to move part of its 2023 drilling program into late 2022. InPlay is adding two horizontal wells in the Belly River where it has not drilled since 2016. Management believes utilizing the success it has found in the Cardium play (Pembina and Willesden Green) will translate into the Belly River.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – 2Q22 Operating Results Released

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com


Thursday, September 29, 2022

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q22 Results. Lifeway reported mixed results in its delayed filing for the second quarter of 2022. Revenue of $33.5 million was up 14.8% y-o-y, but fell short of our $34.5 million estimate. Strong expense control, however, resulted in net income of $120,000, or $0.01 per share, compared to our forecast of a net loss of $340,000, or a loss of $0.02 per share.

GM Still Pressured. Unfavorable milk pricing continued to negatively impact gross margin in 2Q22. Combined with increased pricing of freight costs and other costs, gross margin in 2Q22 fell to 17.0% from 26.3% in 2Q21. We expect continued pressure in milk pricing in 2H22.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Ocugen (OCGN) – Nasal COVID-19 Vaccine Licensed For Development

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com


Thursday, September 29, 2022

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product, Covaxin, is a killed-virus vaccine for COVID-19 in-licensed from Bharat Biotech (India). The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Vaccine For Protection and Prevention of Transmission.  Ocugen has licensed a nasally administered COVID-19 vaccine from Washington University.  Preclinical models show the vaccine produces a strong immune response in the tissues of the nasal passages and respiratory tract where the SARS-CoV-2 virus enters the body and first colonizes.  This strong local immunity could potentially stop both infection and transmission.  Ocugen plans to develop the vaccine as a “universal booster” for protection against current and future strains. 

The Vaccine Has Been Licensed For Other Territories.  Ocugen’s partner for Covaxin, Bharat Biotech (India), has also licensed the vaccine from Washington University and received Emergency Use authorization for India.  We see this as positive sign for regulatory approval in the US and other territories.  Ocugen plans to begin discussions with the FDA to determine the clinical requirements for approval.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

What Traders and Investors Know, But Forget to Do

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Anna Nekrashevich (Pexels)

When Markets are Stormy, Remind Yourself of these Three Rules

Investing is necessary to help build for a future where inflation hasn’t eaten away at savings. But when the investment markets have been at their most difficult in years, most long-term investors have found their investment portfolios have gone into reverse. Many have then committed more cash to their eroding positions as the “buy the dip” thinking, up until recently, has, overall, worked out. 

Whether by managing several billion for a large mutual fund or by keeping my household’s stock portfolio out of trouble, I’ve learned a lot. Most of what has been fruitful seems basic but is often forgotten when battling the markets. The information is easy to convey, the actions take discipline. Here are three key thoughts and actions to help you make decisions.

Know that There are Good and Bad Days

Do you fish? Most people understand fishing. You use past experience and current conditions to estimate (guess) what kind of fish might be biting. You then gather the right equipment and bring yourself to the place where you’re most likely to catch something worthwhile and at a time when the fish are most likely to satisfy your desire to catch them.

You choose the tackle that has been most productive for whatever you’re fishing for, get your lines in the water, and then sit patiently.

More often than not, when fishing, things don’t go as planned. The fish may not be as eager to get caught as you had hoped, or you might quickly catch as much as your freezer can hold, or the law allows. Sometimes a boat comes by and cuts your line. Stuff happens.

If the fish aren’t biting, you evaluate if waiting will yield more than fishing elsewhere. If they instead are biting like crazy, and there seems to be a storm approaching, it might be best to reduce your risk and head back before being caught in a storm. Often the best fishing is right before or after a storm, mid storm is a net negative and could be damaging.

Treat investing like fishing. Learn the best spots for the current conditions. This could be industry sectors, or segments based on market cap., within the categories, ask what companies have the highest probability of a positive outcome. Read up on the companies and see what professional analysts are saying about the financials, business model, management, and outlook. As with fishing, the old guy at the dock that has been fishing the area for years may steer you into (or out of) a boatload of success. Still, use your own judgment, and never act on a hot tip blindly.

Investing, like fishing, can be most successful before or after a storm. Taking positions in the middle is for thrill seekers, not investors. 

Have a Plan

Seems simple enough. If you are fishing, you may schedule yourself for what time of day the fish are likely to be feeding, and if they aren’t, how long, you’ll wait before you try a different lure or a different location? You’re likely to have several hooks in the water at different depths and a plan to switch to whichever depth is getting the most action.

Moving to a different fishing spot when the one you’re at is still productive may seem unreasonable, but if other fishermen have moved to fish where you are, taking your current catch and moving to where you think you’ll do better can be smart.

As a portfolio manager, I held dozens of positions simultaneously, they all had a purpose. If I couldn’t say what the expectations were of any position, I got rid of it. Rolling the dice is expensive. My portfolio objective was to beat the benchmark and consistently be a top-five fund in the category. My plan to accomplish the objective was to have pre-assessed the possibilities before entering any position. I also told myself what I’d do when any of them occurred. In this way, I had a plan for most all scenarios.

The plan helped prevent me from ever trying to take more out of a trade than it is willing to give. It also forced me to never enter a position without having done my homework on the company and the environment in which the company operates.

Technology makes it easier than ever to do preliminary reading and research. Channelchek and other outlets for quality research, coupled with information and tools usually provided by your broker, means today’s retail investor has more than most professionals did in 2000.

Part of the plan should be when to do nothing. The top portfolio managers get paid quite well to do very little each day except monitoring positions in case something, based on their plan, happens. Don’t ever transact because you’re bored. Each position should have a purpose, if there is something else that is likely to better provide that purpose, no-cost trading makes it efficient to adjust your holdings. But if it is doing everything it should, doing nothing is often the best action. Sit on your hands.

Plan your trade, trade your plan, and get out when it is not the best commitment of your money.

Know What You Trade

I’m a student of and a participant in the markets, I suppose I’m also a teacher of sorts, but I never stop learning. This makes me a generalist in many categories, with above-average knowledge in a few. It’s important to know your investment realm. If your fishing is to stand waist deep in water with a flyrod catching more than anyone else on the river, it doesn’t mean you’d have the ability to go offshore and have any success. In fact, offshore, you’d probably throw up. Flyfishing and deep sea fishing are related but not the same. If you knowledgeably trade a few small-cap mining stocks and decide to one day buy TSLA or AAPL, your experience may not translate well.  If either one dropped $50 a share, it might make you want to throw up.

Knowing different investment types and sectors better so you can focus on those you’re best suited to is, like everything else, education and experience.

Learn to decipher what is good information and what is mostly entertainment. Then immerse yourself. Don’t feel that you have to go where the crowd is. Social media has been powerful in getting us to follow the crowd, but defining the right or best thing for us is critical to any success. No one knows what you want more than you, no one knows what you can stomach better than you, and not everyone enjoys any type of fishing or any type of investing. For those people, there are food stores and wealth managers or funds.

Take Away

No matter the caliber of trader/investor, when markets are turbulent, it’s a good habit to refresh yourself on basics. These investing basics include you don’t always have to be in the market – you can expect to run into problem periods, it’s better to avoid these storms than have to rebuild afterward. Also, pre-thinking actions in an “if this, then that” format before even entering a position will prevent bigger problems and provide greater success. Decision-making while the market is either making you euphoric or the market is punching you in the face is the wrong time.  Better decisions are made when thinking clearly. If you don’t think you enjoy investing, leave it to someone else, not everything is for everybody.

For those wishing to hone their expertise, try to learn about everything, but pick a few specialties. I know people that only trade the FAANG stocks and have superior performance. I know others that focus only on biotech and overtime have done well. Then there is the person that only invests in companies with products or services they themselves use, no matter what your focus is, read up on the company and understand how it trades and what its business is impacted by.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/three-rules-successful-traders-follow

Will the Fed Yield on Raising Yields?

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: QuoteInspector.com (Flickr)

Foundational Changes in Stocks and Bonds

It’s a small world, and as we’ve seen, if something happens with one trading partner, it impacts them all.

Rapid moves and turnarounds in the U.S. Treasury market, considered the bedrock of all other markets, have increased the volatility in equity markets, commodities trading, and, more directly to, currency exchange rates across the globe. The uncertainty has caused investment capital to gravitate to U.S. markets; however, prolonged gyrations, especially in “risk-free” U.S. Treasuries, could put many investors on the sidelines and weaken asset prices globally.

The U.S./U.K. Example

At the end of 2021, the ten-year U.S. Treasury note was yielding 1.5%. Earlier this week a ten-year U.S. Treasury (backed by the same entity that backs the U.S. Currency) rose to yield 4%. That’s a 270% rise in the yield – for bondholders, prices of bonds decline as yields rise. So while the stock market frets over what a Federal Reserve increase in rates may do for equities, bond market investors can usually pull out a calculator and get a fairly precise answer as to how bonds will reprice. If the reaction is radically different, an important foundation is lost. The reaction has been unpredictable.

While the ten-year did hit 4% this week, after lingering around 3.50% the prior week, the yield abruptly dropped after news from across the Atlantic that England’s central bank, the Bank of England (BOE), was taking steps to halt rate increases, effectively implementing quantitative easing. The BOE buying bonds puts pound sterling into their economy and adds to inflation pressures. The immediate reaction was for rates to come down, there, in the U.S., and in other economies that have been tightening. This provided a feeling of relief from equity markets, as it was a sign that the central banks may one by one abandon their plans to fight inflation, choosing instead to fuel it.

The BOE’s move to buy bonds “on whatever scale is necessary” to stabilize its bond market, a move that followed large tax cuts last week by the U.K. government, despite double-digit inflation, many believe indicates a possible problem with a major financial institution or pension fund.

The world’s markets don’t trade in a vacuum. The sudden reversal in the U.K. to stop interest rate hikes and perhaps lower rates brought a positive tone to stocks and bonds in U.S. markets, each having historically challenging years. The conversation in the U.S. is that the Fed may have to pause its own aggressive direction. This would be either because increased rates would further strengthen the dollar, or because the U.S. may have its own underlying time bomb(s), institutions that would fail or bubbles that could burst.

The rallies in the U.S. stock and bond markets gained momentum after the BOE move as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data showed reduced expectations of a terminal or neutral Fed Funds rate of 5%, with expectations now for the policy rate to top out around 4.25-4.5%.

Take Away

While the Fed taking its foot off the brake pedal would be a remarkable turnaround after Chairman Powell’s efforts to be clear about his intent to tighten, the reasons for the CME data shift are twofold. First, the Fed won’t be able to keep aggressively raising rates ad simultaneously reducing bond holdings (shrink its balance sheet), because the strong U.S. dollar is disrupting global markets. Secondly, as mentioned before, checking the health of major institutions, housing, and pension funds in the U.S. may be prudent before administering more economic medicine.

Uncertainty has the effect of investors pulling assets out of markets and businesses acting with more caution. Hopefully, clarity, one way or the other, soon presents itself so volatility is reduced and investors can better understand the playing field. 

Paul Hoffman Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/cme

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-fear-bond-market-turmoil-is-entering-a-new-phase-11664443801?mod=hp_lead_pos3