Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Outlook for 2026. Hemisphere Energy released 2026 guidance outlining a C$12.0 million capital program, expected to support ~6.3% growth in average annual production to approximately 3,900 boe/d, compared to our estimated 2025 average of 3,670 boe/d. The capital program is expected to be fully funded from adjusted funds flow and is designed to provide disciplined year-over-year growth while protecting the balance sheet and maintaining shareholder returns. Production is expected to remain 99% heavy oil, supported primarily by polymer flood enhanced oil recovery at Atlee Buffalo.
Updating estimates. We are trimming our 2026 revenue estimate to C$89.9 million from C$93.7 million due to lower production and commodity price estimates. Our production and WTI crude oil price estimates are now 3,900 boe/d and US$60 compared to our previous estimates of 4,080 boe/d and US$65. Despite the lower revenue outlook, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased modestly to C$40.0 million from C$39.7 million, reflecting lower assumed operating costs, improved differentials, and a reduced royalty burden. AFF per share remains unchanged at C$0.40.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – January 28, 2026) – Hemisphere Energy Corporation (TSXV: HME) (OTCQX: HMENF) (“Hemisphere” or the “Company”) is pleased to declare a quarterly dividend to shareholders, deliver guidance for 2026, and provide a corporate update.
Quarterly Dividend
Hemisphere is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.025 per common share in accordance with the Company’s dividend policy. The dividend will be paid on February 26, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 12, 2026. The dividend is designated as an eligible dividend for income tax purposes.
2026 Corporate Guidance
Hemisphere’s Board of Directors has approved a 2026 capital program of approximately $12 million, which provides the Company disciplined year-over-year growth, while protecting the balance sheet and maintaining shareholder returns. The budget will be entirely funded by Hemisphere’s estimated 2026 adjusted funds flow1 (“AFF”) of $40 million.
After all capital expenditures1, 2026 free funds flow1 (“FFF”) is expected to be $28 million, of which approximately 35% will be allocated to quarterly base dividends. The balance of cash will be used for discretionary purposes, which may include potential acceleration of development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and additional return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) program and/or special dividends. In 2025, two special dividends totaling $5.8 million ($0.06/share) were paid to shareholders in addition to Hemisphere’s base quarterly dividends of $9.6 million ($0.10/share). Coupled with $6.4 million ($0.04/share) spent on the Company’s NCIB, total shareholder returns for 2025 amounted to $21.8 million ($0.23/share).
Highlights and assumptions of Hemisphere’s guidance at US$60/bbl WTI are as follows:
Average annual production of 3,900 boe/d (99% heavy oil)
Average WTI price of US$60/bbl, with sensitivities shown at US$50/bbl and US$70/bbl
WCS differential of US$12.50/bbl and quality adjustment of $4.00/bbl
Cdn$ to US$ exchange rate of 0.72
Operating and transportation costs of $15.00/boe
Royalties of 16% at US$60/bbl WTI, 14% at US$50/bbl WTI, and 18% at US$70/bbl WTI
Net G&A of $3.47/boe
Tax Costs of $5.54/boe at US$60/bbl WTI, $2.98/boe at US$50/bbl WTI, $7.88/boe at US$70/bbl WTI
Capital expenditures1 of $12.0 million includes $0.4 million of asset retirement obligations (“ARO”)
2026 Corporate Guidance(2)
US$50 WTI
US$60 WTI
US$70 WTI
Adjusted Funds Flow (AFF)
$ million
28
40
51
AFF per Basic Share(1,3)
$/share
0.30
0.42
0.54
Capital Expenditures& ARO
$ million
12
12
12
Free Funds Flow (FFF)
$ million
16
28
39
FFF per Basic Share(1,3)
$/share
0.17
0.29
0.41
Base Dividend per Basic Share(3)
$/share
0.10
0.10
0.10
Notes:
(1)AFF, Capital Expenditures, and FFF (including per share amounts) are non-IFRS financial measures that are forward-looking and do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. AFF per basic share and FFF per basic share are non-IFRS financial ratios that are forward looking and do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar ratios presented by other entities and include non-IFRS financial measure components of AFF and FFF. See “Non-IFRS Measures”. (2)See assumptions noted above within “2026 Corporate Guidance”. (3)Using a 2026 weighted average of 94.6 million basic shares issued and outstanding. (4)The amounts above do not include potential future purchases through the Company’s NCIB program or other discretionary uses of available funds.
Corporate Outlook
Hemisphere’s corporate production to date in January is trending over 3,800 boe/d (99% heavy oil; field estimates from January 1 to 25, 2026). Over 95% of the Company’s production base is supported by enhanced oil recovery (“EOR”) polymer floods, with the effect of lower corporate decline rates, reduced capital requirements for production replacement, and higher free cash flows for shareholder returns.
Hemisphere entered 2026 debt-free with a positive working capital position of more than $7 million. Together with its projected $40 million AFF (US$60 WTI) for the year, the Company has a great deal of room to flexibly expand or reduce its planned $12 million capital program as market conditions evolve, while still returning significant value to shareholders and advancing strategic growth initiatives.
About Hemisphere Energy Corporation
Hemisphere is a dividend-paying Canadian oil company focused on maximizing value-per-share growth with the sustainable development of its high netback, low decline conventional heavy oil assets through polymer flood EOR methods. Hemisphere trades on the TSX Venture Exchange as a Tier 1 issuer under the symbol “HME” and on the OTCQX Venture Marketplace under the symbol “HMENF”.
For further information, please visit the Company’s website at www.hemisphereenergy.ca to view its corporate presentation or contact:
Don Simmons, President & Chief Executive Officer Telephone: (604) 685-9255 Email: [email protected]
Certain statements included in this news release constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as anticipate, continue, estimate, expect, forecast, may, will, project, could, plan, intend, should, believe, outlook, potential, target, and similar words suggesting future events or future performance. In particular, but without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this news release includes forward-looking statements regarding the record date and payment date for Hemisphere’s quarterly dividend; that Hemisphere’s 2026 capital budget is planned to be entirely funded by Hemisphere’s estimated $40 million AFF (US$60 WTI); Hemisphere’s anticipation that approximately 35% of estimated $28 million in FFF will be paid in quarterly dividends with the balance of cash being used for discretionary purposes; the expected manner in which the Company’s 2026 capital budget will be spent, including the timing of such expenditures and any discretionary amounts, which may include potential acceleration of other development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s NCIB program and/or dividends, and the anticipated effects thereof, including as set forth under “2026 Corporate Guidance” and the Company’s dividend policy and the other matters and guidance set forth under “2026 Corporate Guidance”; and management’s belief that the 2026 development plan provides disciplined production growth while protecting the balance sheet, maintaining shareholder returns, and advancing strategic growth initiatives, with flexibility built in to allow for necessary adjustments based on market conditions.
Forward‐looking statements are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of Hemisphere which have been used to develop such statements and information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Hemisphere believes that the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward‐looking statements because Hemisphere can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein (including the assumptions noted in respect of “2026 Corporate Guidance”), assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the current and go-forward oil price environment; that Hemisphere will continue to conduct its operations in a manner consistent with past operations; continued trade-agreements remain in place and no trade related disputes will develop, including tariffs on Canadian energy production to the United States will be applicable, that results from drilling and development activities are consistent with past operations; the quality of the reservoirs in which Hemisphere operates and continued performance from existing wells; the continued and timely development of infrastructure in areas of new production; inflationary pressure and related costs; that the Company’s dividend policy will remain the same and the Company will continue to be able to declare dividends; the accuracy of the estimates of Hemisphere’s reserve volumes; certain commodity price and other cost assumptions; continued availability of debt and equity financing and cash flow to fund Hemisphere’s current and future plans and expenditures; the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which Hemisphere operates; the general continuance of current industry conditions; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which Hemisphere has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain financing on acceptable terms; field production rates and decline rates; the accuracy of the Company’s reservoir modelling; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and expansion and the ability of Hemisphere to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which Hemisphere operates; and the ability of Hemisphere to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.
The forward‐looking statements included in this news release are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forward‐looking statements including, without limitation: changes in commodity prices; regulatory risks, including penalties or other remedial actions, the ability of the Company to maintain legal title to its properties; changes in the demand for or supply of Hemisphere’s products, the early stage of development of some of the evaluated areas and zones; unanticipated operating results or production declines; results of Hemisphere’s waterflood operations; the ability of Hemisphere to, pending future events, return capital to shareholders as a result of any required third party approvals; changes in budgets; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans of Hemisphere or by third party operators of Hemisphere’s properties, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of Hemisphere’s oil and gas reserve volumes; limited, unfavourable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time‐to‐time in Hemisphere’s public disclosure documents, (including, without limitation, those risks identified in this news release and in Hemisphere’s most recent Annual Information Form).
The forward‐looking statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date of this news release, and Hemisphere does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Forward-Looking Financial Information
This news release may contain future oriented financial information (“FOFI”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including with respect to the Company’s anticipated 2026 Free Funds Flow, Capital Expenditures and Adjusted Funds Flow (including where applicable per share amounts). The FOFI has been prepared by management to provide an outlook of the Company’s activities and results. The FOFI has been prepared based on a number of assumptions including the assumptions discussed and disclosed above, including in relation to “2026 Corporate Guidance” above and “Forward-Looking Statements” above and that the Company is cash taxable in 2026. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on FOFI. The Company’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these FOFI, or if any of them do so, what benefits the Company will derive therefrom. The Company has included the FOFI in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on the Company’s future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Non-IFRS and Other Measures
This news release contains terms that are non-IFRS measures or ratios that are forward-looking and commonly used in the oil and gas industry which are not defined by or calculated in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”), such as: (i) adjusted funds flow (ii) adjusted funds flow per basic share; (iii) capital expenditures; (iv) free funds flow; and (v) free funds flow per basic share. These terms should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than the comparable IFRS measures (as determined in accordance with IFRS) which in the case of funds flow is cash provided by operating activities, in the case of adjusted funds flow (and adjusted funds flow per share) is cash provided by operating activities and in the case of capital expenditures is cash flow used in investing activities. There is no IFRS measure that is reasonably comparable to free funds flow. These measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry and by Hemisphere to provide shareholders and potential investors with additional information regarding: (i) in the case of adjusted funds flow and free funds flow, the Company’s ability to generate the funds necessary to support future growth through capital investment and to repay any debt.
Hemisphere’s determination of these measures may not be comparable to that reported by other companies. Adjusted funds flow is calculated as cash generated by operating activities, before changes in non-cash working capital and adjusted for any decommissioning expenditures; Adjusted funds flow per share is calculated using the outstanding basic shares of the company as footnoted in the 2026 Corporate Guidance table; Free Funds Flow is calculated as Adjusted Funds Flow less capital expenditures; and Free funds flow per share is calculated using the outstanding basic shares of the company as footnoted in the 2026 Corporate Guidance table. The Company has provided additional information on how these measures are calculated, including a reconciliation of such measures to their comparable IFRS measure, in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2024 and the interim period ended September 30, 2025, which are available under the Company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca.
In respect of any forward-looking non-IFRS measures, there is no significant difference between the non-GAAP financial measure that are forward-looking information and the equivalent historical non-GAAP financial measures.
In this news release, Hemisphere uses the term market capitalization at year-end. Hemisphere’s market capitalization was $186.1 million based on 94,481,702 shares outstanding and the Company’s closing price of $1.97 per share on December 31, 2025.
All amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.
Oil and Gas Advisories
Any references in this news release to recent production rates (including as a result of recent waterflood activities) which may be considered to be initial rates and are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons; however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will continue production and decline thereafter and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company. Such rates are based on field estimates and may be based on limited data available at this time.
A barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In addition, given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Definitions and Abbreviations
bbl
Barrel
WTI
West Texas Intermediate
bbl/d
barrels per day
WCS
Western Canadian Select
$/bbl
dollar per barrel
US$
United States Dollar
boe
barrel of oil equivalent
Cdn$
Canadian Dollar
boe/d
barrel of oil equivalent per day
IFRS
International Financial Reporting Standards
$/boe
dollar per barrel of oil equivalent
G&A
General and Administrative Costs
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
A sweeping winter storm moving across the United States is not only threatening travel and power reliability for millions of Americans, but also placing intense pressure on energy companies as demand spikes and infrastructure faces severe stress. From Texas to the Northeast, utilities, power generators, and natural gas suppliers are being tested by the combination of extreme weather and soaring consumption.
In Texas, where freezing rain and snow are expected to arrive by Friday evening, the state’s energy sector faces one of its most critical moments in years. Electricity demand is projected to surge to more than 84 gigawatts Monday morning, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), nearing the state’s all-time record. For power generators, this represents both an opportunity for higher revenues and a risk of operational failure if equipment is unable to perform in icy conditions.
Utilities operating on the Texas grid remain under scrutiny following the catastrophic winter storm of 2021. While significant investments have been made to winterize power plants and natural gas infrastructure, ice accumulation and extreme cold could still disrupt fuel supply, particularly for gas-fired power plants that dominate the state’s generation mix. Any outages would not only strain the grid but expose utilities to reputational damage and regulatory consequences.
Natural gas producers and pipeline operators are already seeing dramatic price impacts. Futures prices have climbed more than 70% this week, while spot prices in some regions have surged to extraordinary levels. For gas producers, especially those with exposure to spot markets, the price spikes could translate into short-term windfall revenues. However, pipeline constraints and weather-related disruptions may limit their ability to fully capitalize on higher prices, highlighting the importance of infrastructure resilience.
In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, power markets operated by PJM Interconnection are preparing for sustained high demand as heavy snowfall and frigid temperatures move in. PJM has asked generators to delay maintenance and ensure maximum availability through early next week. Power prices in the region have already surged, benefiting generators with reliable capacity while increasing costs for utilities and retail energy suppliers that must purchase electricity at elevated rates.
The storm also arrives amid growing structural strain on the U.S. grid. The PJM region is home to the country’s highest concentration of data centers, particularly in northern Virginia, where electricity demand is rising rapidly due to the expansion of artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The combination of extreme weather and data-driven demand underscores the challenges facing utilities tasked with balancing reliability, affordability, and growth.
Energy infrastructure companies, including those providing grid services, battery storage, and demand-response solutions, may also come into sharper focus. In recent years, flexible demand programs—where large consumers reduce usage during peak periods—have played a critical role in avoiding widespread outages. Companies offering these services stand to gain as grid operators increasingly rely on non-traditional tools to maintain stability.
As the storm unfolds, investors and policymakers alike will be watching how energy companies perform under stress. The event could reinforce the case for continued investment in grid modernization, weatherization, and diversified energy sources—areas likely to shape the energy sector’s outlook long after the snow melts.
Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE: UUUU) announced plans to acquire Australian Strategic Materials Limited (ASX: ASM) in a move that will create what the company touts as the largest fully integrated rare-earth element (REE) producer outside of China. The transaction, valued at approximately US$299 million (A$447 million), positions Energy Fuels as a vertically integrated “mine-to-metal & alloy” REE champion, addressing critical gaps in global supply chains for magnets used in automotive, robotics, energy, and defense applications.
The acquisition will combine ASM’s operating Korean Metals Plant (KMP) and its planned American Metals Plant (AMP) with Energy Fuels’ existing REE oxide production at the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only U.S. facility capable of separating monazite concentrates into both light and heavy REE oxides. ASM’s KMP is one of the few facilities outside China producing REE metals and alloys, including neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb), along with neodymium-iron (NdFeB) and dysprosium-iron (DyFe) alloys.
By combining low-cost REE separation with downstream metal and alloy conversion, Energy Fuels expects to enhance vertical integration, margin capture, and market share across the rare-earth value chain. The acquisition addresses one of the most persistent vulnerabilities in ex-China REE supply chains: limited downstream refining and alloy production capacity.
Energy Fuels will also gain access to ASM’s Dubbo REE Project in New South Wales, Australia, further expanding its pipeline of REE development projects. These include the Donald project in Victoria, Australia, the Vara Mada project in Madagascar, and the Bahia project in Brazil, all aimed at supplying feed materials for the White Mesa Mill expansion. Post-expansion, White Mesa is planned to produce 6,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of NdPr oxides, 240 tpa of Dy, and 66 tpa of Tb oxides, while the planned AMP in the U.S. is expected to produce 2,000 tpa of REE alloys.
Mark S. Chalmers, CEO of Energy Fuels, emphasized the strategic rationale, stating, “The proposed acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials brings us much closer to our goal of creating the largest fully integrated producer of REE materials outside of China. This transaction expands our suite of REE products, strengthens our ex-China supply chain position, and provides increased margins, cashflows, and market share for our shareholders.”
ASM shareholders will receive 0.053 Energy Fuels shares or CHESS Depository Interests per ASM share, plus a special dividend of up to A$0.13, representing a total implied value of A$1.60 per share. Post-closing, ASM shareholders will own roughly 5.8% of Energy Fuels’ outstanding shares. The transaction remains subject to ASM shareholder approval, regulatory approvals in Australia, and customary closing conditions, with implementation expected by late June 2026.
For small-cap investors, this acquisition highlights the potential value of vertically integrated rare-earth companies in securing strategic market positions. By combining production of REE oxides, metals, and alloys, Energy Fuels not only reduces reliance on China but also enhances its long-term growth potential in a high-demand sector crucial to green energy, electronics, and defense applications.
Oil markets are experiencing their sharpest rally in months as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran send shockwaves through global energy trading. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have climbed more than 10% over the past week, with prices reaching levels not seen since October.
The rally comes as widespread protests continue to rock Iran, prompting President Trump to warn that the country’s ruling regime would face serious consequences. This marks a significant shift in market attention from Venezuela, where oil shipments have recently resumed, back to Iran—what energy experts are calling the nerve center of global oil markets.
Iran’s position in the global oil landscape is uniquely influential for two critical reasons. First, the country produces over 3 million barrels daily and exports approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. Beyond current production, Iran sits atop more than 200 billion barrels of proven reserves, ranking third globally behind only Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Unlike Venezuelan crude, Iran’s lighter, medium-weight oil is easier to refine and more desirable for buyers.
Second, and perhaps more critically, Iran largely controls the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway that serves as one of the world’s most vital oil chokepoints. Roughly 20 million barrels per day, representing about 25% of global seaborne petroleum trade, flows through this strategic passage. Any closure or disruption would immediately send prices soaring.
Historical precedent underscores this vulnerability. When Israeli forces struck Iranian military and nuclear sites last June, Brent crude jumped 7% in a single day despite the Strait never actually closing.
Energy analysts warn that sustained civil unrest could disrupt Iran’s oil infrastructure. Widespread upheaval might prevent skilled workers from reaching production and export facilities, while basic services like electricity could become unreliable. Experts suggest at least limited production interruptions are likely if tensions continue escalating.
A worst-case scenario would mirror the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when political upheaval cut the country’s oil production nearly in half—from over 5.7 million barrels per day to just 3.2 million barrels. While analysts consider a complete production collapse unlikely, even partial disruptions would significantly impact global supplies.
The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Tehran, announcing immediate 25% tariffs on any country conducting business with Iran. The president has also signaled support for protesters facing violent crackdowns that have reportedly killed thousands amid internet blackouts.
China, which purchases more than 80% of Iranian crude, would feel immediate effects from any export disruptions. Chinese refiners might shift demand toward Russian oil or tap domestic reserves that Beijing has been stockpiling as geopolitical insurance.
Despite the price spike, some analysts urge caution. The global oil market currently faces a supply glut of approximately 3.6 million barrels per day, which could absorb moderate disruptions. However, trading activity tells a different story—Monday saw record volume in Brent crude call options as traders hedge against sudden price spikes, while volatility indicators have reached their highest levels since last summer’s strikes.
For now, markets remain on edge, closely watching whether Iran’s internal turmoil will translate into the sustained supply disruption that could send prices substantially higher.
The artificial intelligence boom is no longer just about software models and chips—it’s increasingly about power, land, and infrastructure. That reality came into sharp focus this week as OpenAI and SoftBank jointly committed $1 billion to SB Energy, a fast-growing energy and data center infrastructure company positioned at the center of America’s AI buildout.
Under the deal, OpenAI and SoftBank will each invest $500 million to support SB Energy’s expansion as a large-scale developer and operator of data centers. As part of the partnership, SB Energy has been selected to build and operate OpenAI’s 1.2-gigawatt data center in Milam County, Texas, a facility large enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes. The investment highlights a critical shift: for AI leaders, securing reliable energy has become as strategic as securing advanced chips.
AI workloads are extraordinarily power-hungry. Training and running large language models requires enormous computing capacity, which in turn drives unprecedented electricity demand. As a result, hyperscalers and AI developers are now racing to lock down long-term energy sources and infrastructure partners to avoid future bottlenecks. In this environment, companies that can deliver power at scale are emerging as essential enablers of the AI economy.
SB Energy represents a hybrid model well-suited for this moment. Originally founded as a renewable energy and storage developer and long backed by SoftBank, the company has expanded aggressively into data center development, ownership, and operations. This dual exposure to both energy production and digital infrastructure positions SB Energy as a critical middle layer between power generation and AI compute demand.
The investment also ties directly into OpenAI’s Stargate initiative, a massive joint effort with partners including SoftBank and Oracle to invest up to $500 billion in U.S. AI infrastructure over the next four years. Stargate’s ambition underscores how central physical infrastructure has become to sustaining AI growth—and why capital is flowing into companies that can execute at scale.
From an investor’s perspective, this trend carries important implications. While mega-cap tech companies dominate AI headlines, much of the real opportunity may lie one layer below, in infrastructure providers, energy developers, and specialized operators that enable AI expansion. These businesses often generate long-term contracted revenue and may benefit from structural demand regardless of short-term swings in AI sentiment.
However, the rapid interconnection between AI firms, financiers, and infrastructure developers also introduces risk. Heavy capital commitments assume that AI demand will continue to rise at an aggressive pace. If adoption slows or efficiency gains reduce power needs, some projects could face pressure. Investors should therefore favor companies with diversified customers, strong balance sheets, and assets that retain value beyond AI-specific use cases.
Ultimately, the OpenAI–SoftBank investment in SB Energy signals a broader shift: AI is becoming an infrastructure-driven industry. For investors willing to look beyond the obvious names, the companies powering the AI revolution—literally—may offer some of the most compelling opportunities in the years ahead.
Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Comstock Metals received its Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Air Pollution Control for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.
Closing in on the Written Determination Permit. The Air Quality Permit follows a notification of eligibility for a written determination permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Sustainable Materials Management, which is now through the public notice period. Once the written determination permit is final, the two permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of the recovery facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updating 2025 estimates. We have lowered our Q4 and FY 2025 EPU estimates to $0.57 and $2.33, respectively, from $0.69 and $2.45. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 568 bitcoins as of September 30. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $114,056 on September 30. We anticipate the value of digital assets in Q4 2025 could decrease by approximately $15.1 million if all bitcoins were held through the fourth quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate.
Looking ahead. While our 2026 and 2027 estimates are unchanged, we think coal supply and demand fundamentals could strengthen going into 2027, which could have a positive impact on pricing. Actions taken by the Trump Administration are expected to support and sustain coal-fired power generation. Electricity demand growth is expected to be driven by industrial growth, electrification, and the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers.
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When Michael Burry makes a move, investors pay attention. The man who famously predicted the 2008 housing crisis has been quietly holding a position since 2020 that suddenly looks prescient following this weekend’s dramatic events in Venezuela. In a Monday blog post on Substack, Burry revealed he’s owned Valero Energy for five years, describing himself as “more resolved to holding it even longer” after President Trump’s pledge to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector.
Burry’s thesis is straightforward but powerful. Many Gulf Coast refineries were specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude, meaning they’ve been operating with suboptimal feedstock for years due to sanctions and Venezuela’s production collapse. As Venezuelan oil flows return, these refineries should see improved margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel. Valero shares surged nearly 10% on Monday, vindicating Burry’s patience. The refiner’s capability to efficiently process heavy, high-sulfur crude creates a natural moat that Burry clearly recognized back in 2020, long before this political inflection point.
But Burry isn’t just focused on the obvious large-cap play. He specifically mentioned that smaller refiners like PBF Energy and HF Sinclair could also benefit, even if Venezuelan oil returns only gradually. This acknowledgment of opportunity across the market cap spectrum is noteworthy and particularly relevant for small-cap investors looking beyond the headlines. While any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan exports will likely take years, Burry’s willingness to highlight mid-sized players suggests he sees value throughout the sector.
The investor’s analysis extends beyond refining. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has suffered from decades of underinvestment, creating substantial demand for oilfield services companies if large-scale rehabilitation begins. Burry disclosed he owns Halliburton and sees potential upside for Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, companies that could be contracted to rebuild deteriorated pipelines and refineries. His comment about potentially buying more Halliburton shares or LEAPs—long-term options contracts—reveals his conviction level and provides a template for how investors might gain leveraged exposure while managing risk.
The timing of Burry’s revelation is significant. He’s held Valero since 2020, a period when Venezuela remained under heavy sanctions and most investors dismissed Venezuelan oil as a dead opportunity. This patience reflects his contrarian nature and willingness to endure extended periods where the market disagrees with his thesis. Wall Street analysts are now rushing to validate what Burry saw years ago, with multiple firms highlighting Valero as a top beneficiary of increased Venezuelan supply.
For small-cap investors, Burry’s framework offers valuable lessons. His mention of PBF Energy and HF Sinclair demonstrates that opportunities exist throughout the market cap structure for companies with the right capabilities. His focus on oilfield services points to second-order effects many investors overlook while fixated on the obvious refining story. And his use of LEAPs shows how options strategies can create leveraged exposure to multi-year themes.
Several key themes emerge from Burry’s playbook. He identified a structural advantage that created long-term value regardless of short-term volatility. He took a multi-year view, holding through uncertainty when the thesis wasn’t working. He’s thinking beyond the obvious, considering services companies and smaller refiners alongside his flagship position. And he’s using options to potentially leverage conviction while managing downside.
The Venezuela oil story is just beginning, and meaningful recovery will take years. But Burry has never been deterred by uncertainty—he’s built his fortune by being right when conventional wisdom said he was wrong. His five-year bet is now in the spotlight, and for those willing to think in multi-year timeframes and look beyond the headlines, his framework offers a roadmap for finding similar asymmetric opportunities.
The weekend capture of Nicolás Maduro and President Trump’s subsequent pledge to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector sent shockwaves through oil markets on Monday. While headlines focused on the major players—Chevron surging 6.3%, ConocoPhillips and Exxon climbing, and oil-service giants like Halliburton, SLB, and Baker Hughes all jumping over 5%—savvy small-cap investors should be asking a different question: Where are the overlooked opportunities in this historic shift?
Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest crude reserves, yet years of corruption, underinvestment, and sanctions have decimated its infrastructure. Experts estimate a full revival could require upwards of $100 billion and take many years to complete. Trump’s commitment to having major US oil companies “spend billions of dollars” to fix the “badly broken infrastructure” represents one of the largest potential reconstruction efforts in the energy sector’s recent history. But here’s what the major media coverage misses: the oil majors can’t do this alone.
While Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips will undoubtedly lead the charge—with Chevron already producing roughly 20% of Venezuela’s current output—the sheer scale of reconstruction needed creates a massive opportunity ecosystem that extends far beyond the Fortune 500. The infrastructure damage is comprehensive. Fires, thefts, equipment failures, and decades of neglect have left refineries, pipelines, storage facilities, and drilling operations in tatters. Rebuilding this complex network will require specialized services, equipment manufacturers, logistics providers, and niche technical expertise that major oil companies typically outsource.
While Halliburton and SLB dominate headlines, smaller oilfield services companies with expertise in heavy crude production, well rehabilitation, and aging infrastructure repair could see significant contract opportunities. These nimbler firms often provide specialized services that complement—rather than compete with—the major service providers. The reconstruction will require massive quantities of pumps, valves, drilling equipment, and replacement parts. Small-cap manufacturers and distributors specializing in oil and gas equipment could see order books fill rapidly, particularly those with experience in heavy crude operations or refinery equipment.
Moving equipment, materials, and eventually crude oil will require expanded logistics capabilities. Small-cap shipping companies, port services providers, and specialized transportation firms operating in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean could benefit from increased traffic between US Gulf Coast refineries and Venezuelan facilities. Any major reconstruction effort will also require environmental remediation, safety consulting, and regulatory compliance services. Smaller firms specializing in industrial cleanup, environmental monitoring, and workplace safety for hazardous environments may find significant opportunities.
Venezuela produces heavy crude that’s particularly valuable to Gulf Coast refineries, which are specifically designed to process it. This geographic and operational connection means US-based small-cap companies serving the Gulf Coast refining complex are naturally positioned to extend their services southward. The interrelationship between US refining infrastructure and Venezuelan crude creates a natural expansion pathway for regional players.
Smart investors must acknowledge significant risks. The article notes uncertainty about whether global oil companies will commit substantial capital to a country run by a temporary US-backed government without established legal and fiscal frameworks. ConocoPhillips called speculation about future activities “premature,” and ExxonMobil’s CEO indicated the company would be “cautious” given past asset expropriations. For small-cap companies, these political and regulatory risks are magnified. Smaller firms have less capital cushion to absorb losses and less negotiating power in unstable environments. Any investment thesis predicated on Venezuelan reconstruction must account for potential delays, political volatility, and the possibility that the opportunity never fully materializes.
While Monday’s market action rewarded the obvious beneficiaries, patient small-cap investors should be conducting deeper research into companies positioned along the value chain of Venezuelan oil reconstruction. The opportunity is real—$100 billion doesn’t get spent without creating ripples throughout the entire industry ecosystem—but it will require careful analysis to separate companies with genuine exposure from those merely riding headline momentum. The Venezuelan energy revival may be a major-cap story on the surface, but the small-cap opportunities hiding beneath could prove equally compelling for investors willing to do the work.
BYD Co., the Chinese electric vehicle giant, has hit a major milestone, surpassing Tesla Inc. to claim the title of the world’s largest electric vehicle maker in 2025. The achievement comes amid a challenging backdrop for China’s auto market, with heightened domestic competition and shifting government incentives.
The Shenzhen-based company delivered a total of 4.6 million vehicles last year, representing a 7.7% increase from 2024, and meeting the full-year sales target it set in September. Nearly half of these vehicles—2.26 million—were fully electric, with the remainder comprising plug-in hybrid models. In contrast, Tesla’s full-year deliveries are projected to reach approximately 1.66 million vehicles, marking its second consecutive annual decline. The US automaker’s fourth-quarter shipments alone were down 11% from a year earlier.
BYD’s milestone was reflected in market performance, with its Hong Kong-listed shares rising as much as 2.3% on the first trading day of 2026. Despite this growth, the company faces significant pressure in the year ahead. China’s reduction of certain EV purchase incentives and an influx of new domestic models have intensified competition. Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp., among others, have launched new vehicles that are capturing consumer attention, making the domestic landscape more challenging.
Chief Executive Officer Wang Chuanfu acknowledged that BYD’s technological lead over competitors has narrowed, affecting domestic sales. However, he expressed confidence in the company’s 120,000-strong engineering team and hinted at upcoming breakthroughs that could help BYD regain an edge.
International markets have emerged as a bright spot for BYD. Overseas deliveries reached 1.05 million units in 2025, surpassing expectations and helping offset domestic softness. The company has set ambitious targets for 2026, aiming to sell between 1.5 million and 1.6 million vehicles outside China. Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley forecast that new product launches and a refreshed technology platform could further strengthen BYD’s global competitiveness.
Nevertheless, the company faces financial and regulatory hurdles. BYD posted back-to-back quarterly profit declines in 2025 and has been at the center of China’s efforts to curb aggressive EV discounting. This regulatory scrutiny may accelerate consolidation within the industry and reshape the competitive hierarchy.
Tesla, meanwhile, is grappling with its own set of challenges. Production line adjustments for the redesigned Model Y slowed early 2025 deliveries, while the US elimination of federal EV purchase incentives is expected to weigh on demand. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk’s controversial political profile has reportedly deterred some buyers, further complicating the company’s outlook.
Despite these headwinds, BYD appears poised to maintain its lead. Analyst estimates suggest total sales could reach 5.3 million units in 2026, allowing the company to solidify its position as the top global EV maker. With growing overseas momentum, strategic product launches, and continued investment in technology, BYD is not just overtaking Tesla—it is reshaping the global electric vehicle landscape.
CALGARY AB, Jan. 2, 2026 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) is pleased to confirm that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.09 per common share payable on January 30, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on January 15, 2026. The monthly cash dividend is expected to be designated as an “eligible dividend” for Canadian federal and provincial income tax purposes.
About InPlay Oil Corp.
InPlay is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
For further information please contact: Doug Bartole, President and Chief Executive Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0632; Darren Dittmer, Chief Financial Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0634
Alphabet is making a decisive move to secure the energy backbone of its artificial intelligence ambitions. The Google parent announced it will acquire clean energy developer Intersect in a $4.75 billion cash deal, including assumed debt, underscoring how access to power has become a strategic priority in the global AI race.
The acquisition comes as Big Tech companies pour billions into expanding computing capacity to support generative AI models, cloud services, and data centers — all of which require enormous and reliable amounts of electricity. As U.S. power grids strain to keep pace with surging demand, technology firms are increasingly turning upstream, investing directly in energy generation rather than relying solely on utilities.
Intersect brings scale that few developers can match. The company has roughly $15 billion in assets that are either operating or under construction, with projects expected to deliver about 10.8 gigawatts of power by 2028. That capacity is more than twenty times the electricity generated by the Hoover Dam, highlighting the magnitude of energy now required to sustain AI-driven growth.
Under the agreement, Alphabet will acquire Intersect’s energy and data center projects that are currently under development or construction. These assets are designed to support large-scale computing infrastructure, aligning closely with Google’s expanding network of U.S. data centers. Intersect’s operations will remain separate from Alphabet, preserving operational independence while strategically supporting Google’s long-term power needs.
Notably, Intersect’s existing operating assets in Texas and its operating and in-development projects in California will not be included in the deal. Those assets will continue as an independent business backed by existing investors. Among them is Quantum, a clean energy storage system in Texas built directly alongside a Google data center campus — a model increasingly favored by hyperscalers seeking to pair computing facilities with on-site or adjacent power sources.
The deal builds on Alphabet’s broader push into energy partnerships. Earlier this month, NextEra Energy expanded its collaboration with Google Cloud to develop new energy supplies across the U.S. Together, these moves signal a shift in how tech giants approach infrastructure: energy security is no longer a background consideration, but a core component of competitive advantage.
For Alphabet, the acquisition also reinforces its commitment to clean energy. As AI workloads expand, the environmental footprint of data centers has drawn scrutiny from regulators and investors alike. By investing directly in renewable generation and energy storage, Alphabet aims to mitigate emissions while insulating itself from grid bottlenecks, price volatility, and regulatory risk.
Intersect will also explore emerging energy technologies to diversify supply, according to Alphabet, positioning the company to adapt as AI-driven electricity demand continues to grow. This forward-looking approach reflects a broader industry trend, where control over power generation is becoming just as critical as control over chips, data, and algorithms.
Ultimately, Alphabet’s purchase of Intersect highlights a defining reality of the AI era: the battle for intelligence is also a battle for energy. As demand accelerates, companies that can secure scalable, reliable, and clean power may hold a decisive edge in shaping the future of technology.
