Category: Economy

Wall Street Boosts S&P 500 Targets on AI Momentum and Earnings Strength

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wall Street’s bullish sentiment is gaining momentum as the S&P 500 hovers near record highs ahead of earnings season. Despite political uncertainty in Washington and lingering concerns about an “AI bubble,” several top strategists are raising their forecasts, pointing to what they describe as “fundamental strength” across corporate earnings and continued support from Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research lifted his S&P 500 target to 7,000, calling the ongoing rally a “slow-motion melt-up” fueled by resilient profits and Fed easing. Similarly, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel maintained a 7,750 base-case target for 2026, assigning a 30% probability to a “bubble scenario” that could propel the index to 9,000 if AI-driven capital investment accelerates.

Signs of that exuberance are already visible. On Monday, OpenAI revealed a multibillion-dollar deal with AMD, granting the ChatGPT maker rights to acquire up to 10% of the chip giant as part of what executives have dubbed “the world’s most ambitious AI buildout.” The announcement sparked renewed optimism in semiconductor and software names, reinforcing the view that AI investment remains the market’s primary growth engine.

Yet, opinions remain divided. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos recently described the AI boom as a “good kind of bubble” that could fuel long-term innovation and economic expansion. In contrast, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon urged caution, suggesting that some capital deployed in the AI race may not yield the expected returns, potentially setting up a correction in the next year or two.

That debate is playing out against elevated valuations. The S&P 500 is trading near 25 times expected 2025 earnings, a level DataTrek Research says “reflects complete confidence” that companies will deliver. Analysts project 13% earnings growth in 2026 and another 10% in 2027, driven primarily by the same mega-cap technology stocks that have led markets higher this year.

Big Tech now represents nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and other AI-focused firms comprising 48% of the index. Analysts note that “multiple expansion” in these names is the foundation of the bull case, with a record number of tech giants issuing positive earnings guidance last quarter — a signal that earnings momentum remains intact heading into Q3 results.

Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin argue that Wall Street’s current earnings forecasts are too conservative, citing strong macro data and robust AI-driven demand. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson echoed that optimism, noting that lower labor costs and pent-up demand could spark a return of “positive operating leverage” — where profits grow faster than revenues — not seen since 2021.

While some investors remain wary of inflation’s potential return, Wilson believes it could be a tailwind rather than a threat, with the Fed likely to tolerate higher prices as long as growth remains solid.

As earnings season begins, the question for investors is not whether the rally can continue — but whether it is still being driven by fundamentals or increasingly by momentum.

Federal Reserve Navigates Uncertainty Amid Missing Jobs Report

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

With a pivotal government jobs report missing due to a shutdown, the Federal Reserve faces an unusual challenge: steering monetary policy without its most relied-upon labor data. For small cap investors, these developments could signal both opportunity and risk in the months ahead.

Traditionally, the monthly nonfarm payrolls report serves as a critical guidepost for Federal Reserve officials setting interest rates. This month, that data’s absence leaves policymakers “flying blind,” navigating with only private sector and anecdotal sources. Despite this, markets remain confident that Fed rate cuts are still on the horizon. Traders currently price in a 97% chance of a quarter-point cut to 3.75–4% at the upcoming October meeting, with another probable reduction at the year’s end.

Without federal data, Fed officials are turning to private sources. ADP’s recent payroll report showed a surprising 32,000 job decline for September, while the Indeed Job Postings Index revealed a cooling labor market, with overall postings down 2.5% month-over-month, though still above pre-pandemic levels by 2.9%. Banking and finance was the only sector to show growth in job postings year-over-year, suggesting broad-based weakness elsewhere.

Wage growth, tracked by the Indeed Wage Tracker, has also lagged behind inflation in recent months, underscoring ongoing stagnation in the labor market. Layoff announcements reflect a mixed picture: Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 54,064 planned job cuts in September—a 37% drop from August—but overall layoff plans for Q3 are at their highest since 2020, possibly breaching one million for the year.

The lack of official jobs data has heightened uncertainty within the Federal Reserve. “Reliable federal data, especially related to price levels and inflation, is hard to replace,” said Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed, emphasizing the difficulty policymakers face in making informed decisions in uncertain times.

Policymaker opinion is split. Some, like Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, advocate caution, supporting one rate cut now but warning against aggressive easing that could stoke inflation risks. Conversely, Fed governor Michelle Bowman sees the central bank “at serious risk of being behind the curve” and suggests a more forceful response to what she calls a “deteriorating labor market.” Fed governor Stephen Miran even called for five additional cuts this year.

For small cap investors, these crosscurrents create a dynamic environment. The expected rate cuts could ease borrowing costs and fuel risk appetite, aiding smaller companies that depend on credit and consumer demand. However, if labor market weakness deepens or inflation stays stubbornly high, downside volatility could increase.

Private estimates suggest the government’s jobs tally for September would have been modest—workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs forecasts a gain of 60,000 jobs, while economists estimate around 50,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. This reinforces views of a slow recovery, not a robust rebound, and calls for careful positioning in sectors with demonstrated resilience.

Jobless Claims Fall to 218,000, Beating Expectations as Economic Data Shows Resilience

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week, signaling continued resilience in the labor market even as hiring has slowed and the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on economic momentum.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, according to the Labor Department. That was a drop of 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised level and came in well below the consensus forecast of 235,000. Continuing claims, which measure those still receiving benefits, edged slightly lower to 1.926 million.

The latest claims figures arrive against a backdrop of uncertainty about the economy’s trajectory. Payroll growth has cooled, and job openings remain at multiyear lows. The Fed recently responded by cutting its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, its first reduction of 2025. Policymakers cited rising risks to employment as one factor behind the decision.

Still, the claims data suggests companies remain hesitant to lay off workers despite a noticeable pullback in hiring. Volatility in weekly figures continues, with Texas accounting for a sizable portion of recent swings, but the broader picture points to a labor market that is holding firmer than many expected.

Beyond the employment data, Thursday also brought signs of strength in other corners of the economy. Gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to an annualized gain of 3.8%. That marked a half-point improvement from the prior estimate and reflected stronger consumer spending than initially reported. Personal consumption, which makes up about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 2.5% pace, well above earlier estimates and the tepid 0.6% increase seen in the first quarter.

Durable goods orders added to the positive picture. Purchases of long-lasting items such as appliances, aircraft, and computers climbed 2.9% in August, defying forecasts for a decline and reversing a steep drop from July. Even excluding transportation equipment, orders grew 0.4% in the month and 1.9% when defense-related spending was excluded, underscoring broad-based demand.

The housing sector, which has been under pressure from higher borrowing costs, also showed signs of improvement. Sales of newly built homes jumped 20.5% in August, the largest monthly gain since early 2022. Existing home sales came in slightly ahead of expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million.

Taken together, the data paints a picture of an economy that continues to expand despite headwinds from tighter credit conditions, shifting trade policies, and global geopolitical challenges. Markets currently anticipate that the Fed will follow through with two more rate cuts before the end of the year, at its October and December meetings.

While policymakers acknowledge that growth is being restrained by elevated borrowing costs, they also see resilience across consumer spending, business investment, and labor markets. That combination has kept the outlook more balanced than some had feared heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Investors Lock in $43 Billion in Gains from U.S. Stock Funds

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. equity funds faced significant withdrawals last week as investors rushed to lock in profits following a powerful rally fueled by the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. According to LSEG Lipper data, equity funds saw $43.19 billion in outflows in the week ending September 17, marking the largest withdrawal since December 2024.

The selloff came just as the S&P 500 surged to a record 6,656.8, representing a nearly 38% climb from its April 2024 low of 4,835. The sharp rally, combined with stretched valuations, prompted investors to reallocate capital to safer assets. Market watchers noted that forward price-to-earnings ratios for the index are now sitting at levels rarely seen over the past two decades, making equities vulnerable to profit-taking and potential volatility.

Large-cap funds bore the brunt of the outflows, shedding $34.19 billion in the week — the biggest drawdown since at least 2020. Mid-cap funds also recorded $1.58 billion in redemptions, while small-cap funds bucked the trend with a modest $50 million in inflows. Sector funds were not spared either, with technology-focused vehicles suffering $2.84 billion in withdrawals, contributing to a net $1.24 billion outflow across all sectors.

While equities stumbled, fixed income funds continued to attract investor attention. U.S. bond funds saw $7.33 billion in fresh inflows, extending their streak to 22 consecutive weeks. Short-to-intermediate investment-grade funds led the way, alongside general domestic taxable fixed income products and municipal debt funds, which all posted over $1 billion in gains.

Meanwhile, money market funds experienced a sharp reversal. After three straight weeks of net inflows, investors pulled $23.65 billion, suggesting a shift away from cash holdings as capital moved into bonds and other yield-generating instruments.

The rotation underscores two structural themes shaping markets this fall: heightened caution on overextended equity valuations and a renewed appetite for fixed income as investors prepare for a more dovish Federal Reserve in the months ahead. With rate cuts expected to continue, bond yields remain attractive compared to the perceived risks of chasing equities at record highs.

This move comes just days after the Russell 2000 hit a record high, signaling shifting dynamics between large- and small-cap stocks. However, the latest flow data suggests that, despite optimism about monetary policy, many investors prefer to secure recent gains rather than risk a pullback.

The coming weeks will be pivotal as markets digest the Fed’s updated economic projections and policy guidance. Whether the current profit-taking proves temporary or marks the beginning of a broader correction may depend on how quickly earnings growth can catch up with elevated valuations.

Federal Reserve Delivers First Rate Cut of 2025, Signals More Easing Ahead

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time this year, reducing its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The move marks the Fed’s first policy easing since December and sets the stage for additional cuts as officials adjust to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation.

The decision, made in a split vote, reflects growing concern about slowing job growth and rising unemployment. In August, the economy added just 22,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. Recent revisions also showed weaker job growth in earlier months, reinforcing the case for easing monetary policy. The Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” projections now point to two more rate cuts before the end of 2025, up from earlier expectations.

The outlook among policymakers remains divided, however. The updated dot plot showed nine officials anticipating three cuts this year, six projecting just one, and a small minority envisioning either no cuts or significantly more. For 2026, the consensus is for one additional reduction.

Economic projections released alongside the decision highlight both resilience and challenges. Inflation is expected to rise 3.1% this year, unchanged from prior estimates, while GDP growth was upgraded slightly to 1.6% from 1.4%. The unemployment rate is forecast to reach 4.5% by year-end, reflecting mounting labor market softness.

The Fed’s move comes amid heightened political scrutiny. President Donald Trump has been pressing for lower interest rates, repeatedly criticizing the central bank for acting too slowly. His influence on the institution has grown, with newly confirmed governor Stephen Miran—previously a White House economic adviser—joining the board in time for this meeting. Miran favored a larger half-point cut, underscoring divisions within the Fed about how aggressively to ease policy.

At the same time, Trump has sought to reshape the central bank’s leadership. His administration attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook, but courts have so far blocked the effort. Cook participated in this week’s meeting following rulings that found insufficient grounds for her dismissal. The legal battle over her position is expected to continue, potentially reaching the Supreme Court.

The Fed now faces the delicate task of balancing weaker labor data with inflation that remains well above its 2% target. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 3.1% in August, matching July’s reading and showing little progress in bringing inflation lower. This persistence complicates the Fed’s ability to cut rates quickly without risking renewed price pressures.

For financial markets, the latest move confirms expectations of a shift toward looser monetary policy. Investors had already priced in a September cut, but the signal of further easing provided an additional boost to assets that benefit from lower rates, including equities and gold. The dollar weakened following the announcement, reflecting anticipation of easier financial conditions.

As the year progresses, the central bank’s policy path will remain a focal point for markets, businesses, and households. With economic data softening and political pressures intensifying, the Fed’s challenge will be to support growth without reigniting inflation risks.

Winklevoss Twins Take Gemini Public

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The wave of cryptocurrency-linked companies hitting the public markets this year gained fresh momentum on Friday, as Gemini Space Station made its long-awaited debut on the Nasdaq.

Shares in the exchange, founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, opened at $37.01 after its initial public offering was priced at $28. Within minutes, the stock soared above $45 before retreating to trade around $35 by mid-afternoon. Even after paring gains, Gemini shares were still up more than 20% from their offering price, valuing the company at roughly $1.5 billion.

The trading session wasn’t without drama. A sharp spike in volatility triggered an automatic 10-minute halt shortly after the open, a common safeguard for new listings experiencing outsized swings.

The offering itself raised approximately $425 million, reflecting robust investor demand. Pricing came in well above early estimates of $17 to $19, which were later raised to $24 to $26. By the time Gemini hit the market, enthusiasm had pushed the IPO into the upper range of expectations.

Gemini enters public trading during an especially fertile period for crypto-related IPOs. In June, stablecoin operator Circle Internet Group priced its shares at $31 before closing its first day at $83. Two months later, fintech exchange Bullish went public at $37 and ended its first session near $68. Just yesterday, Figure Technologies, another blockchain player, surged more than 40% in its debut.

These strong first-day performances reflect a broader investor appetite for digital-asset infrastructure, even amid lingering questions around regulation and long-term adoption. Data shows tech IPOs overall have averaged a 36% first-day return over the past year, but crypto-linked listings have consistently outpaced that benchmark.

For Gemini, the IPO marks both a validation and an expansion opportunity. The firm currently manages more than $21 billion in assets and serves approximately 10,000 institutional clients worldwide. Beyond its core exchange platform, the company has diversified into stablecoins, a U.S. credit card product, and a studio dedicated to nonfungible tokens (NFTs).

The timing is strategic. With digital assets edging closer to mainstream financial adoption and institutional participation rising, public investors are eager to gain direct exposure to companies positioned at the center of this ecosystem. Gemini’s listing provides exactly that.

The company’s trajectory also underscores how far the Winklevoss brothers have come since their early public battles in the tech world. Once known primarily for their legal dispute with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, the twins have steadily built Gemini into a brand synonymous with regulatory compliance, security, and user trust in crypto markets.

As the stock settles in the days ahead, traders and analysts will be watching closely to see whether Gemini can maintain momentum — and whether this latest IPO is another signal that crypto finance is entering a new phase of market maturity.

Inflation Rises in August, Fed Faces Tough Balancing Act on Rates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. inflation edged higher in August, complicating the Federal Reserve’s decision-making as it prepares for its September policy meeting. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year, up from July’s 2.7% pace, while monthly prices climbed 0.4%—a faster increase than the prior month. The uptick was fueled by persistently high gasoline prices and firmer food costs, underscoring the challenge of controlling inflation while navigating a slowing economy.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 3.1% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%, marking the strongest two-month stretch in half a year. Travel and transportation costs stood out as particular pressure points, with airfares jumping nearly 6% in August after a strong gain the previous month. Vehicle prices, both new and used, also reversed earlier declines. Meanwhile, some categories showed moderation, such as medical care and communication services, which provided modest relief.

While the inflation data reflects lingering price pressures, the labor market tells a different story. Weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000—the highest level in nearly four years—suggesting that hiring momentum continues to cool. This comes on the heels of government revisions showing that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported between March 2024 and March 2025. Taken together, the data points to a labor market losing steam even as certain costs remain stubborn.

Markets are betting that the Fed will still cut interest rates next week, with traders pricing in an 88% probability of a quarter-point reduction and an 11% chance of a half-point move. By year-end, expectations remain for a total of 75 basis points in cuts. For policymakers, the dilemma is clear: inflation is not fully under control, but economic softness is becoming too pronounced to ignore.

The inflation numbers also highlight the effect of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are filtering into consumer prices unevenly. Gasoline and travel costs remain elevated, while categories such as lodging and some services show weakness, pointing to households feeling the pinch in essential spending areas. At the same time, producer prices declined 0.1% in August, suggesting that businesses are absorbing some of the additional costs rather than passing them entirely to consumers.

The Federal Reserve now faces a delicate balancing act. Cutting rates too aggressively could risk reigniting inflationary pressures, especially if energy and trade-related costs remain sticky. Moving too cautiously, however, could deepen the strain on employment and consumer confidence, potentially tipping the economy toward recessionary conditions.

Investors are watching closely not only for the rate decision but also for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging. With both inflation and unemployment data pulling in different directions, the September meeting will serve as a pivotal moment for how the Fed charts its course through a complex and fragile economic backdrop.

US Jobs Revision Wipes Out 911,000 Positions, Raising Alarms About Economic Momentum

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. labor market just got a reality check — and it’s a sobering one. A government revision revealed that the economy employed 911,000 fewer people as of March 2025 than initially reported, exposing a far weaker job market than policymakers and the public had believed. The new data, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shows the slowdown began months before the summer headlines of weakening payrolls and rising unemployment.

The revision, covering the 12 months between March 2024 and March 2025, slashes average monthly job gains from an already modest 147,000 to just 71,000. For context, that’s less than half the pace originally reported and a figure that suggests the labor market was cooling long before the recent downturn. Economists had anticipated downward revisions, but the scale was startling — many expected about 700,000 fewer jobs, while the actual figure exceeded even the most pessimistic forecasts.

Industries that once looked like pillars of resilience proved more fragile under scrutiny. Leisure and hospitality was revised down by 176,000 jobs, erasing gains that had been touted as proof of post-pandemic recovery strength. Professional and business services followed with a downward revision of 158,000 jobs, signaling weakness in white-collar employment as well. Overall, the private sector absorbed the brunt, losing 880,000 jobs in the revision, while government payrolls were adjusted down by 31,000.

These annual revisions are routine, as the BLS incorporates more accurate data like unemployment insurance filings. But the magnitude of recent adjustments has been unusually large, feeding political tensions and raising questions about the reliability of initial reporting. Last year’s revision cut 818,000 jobs, landing right in the middle of the presidential campaign and fueling criticism from then-candidate Donald Trump.

Now, President Trump is in office and once again pointing to the BLS, accusing it of producing “phony” numbers. He has already dismissed the agency’s former commissioner and nominated E.J. Antoni, a vocal critic from the Heritage Foundation, to lead the bureau. Antoni’s confirmation battle will likely intensify after this revision, as the administration pushes for overhauls in how labor data is collected and reported.

Beyond politics, the numbers matter for the Federal Reserve, which is under pressure to respond to slowing job growth and signs of economic fragility. Trump and his allies argue Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been “too late” in cutting rates, claiming the central bank clung too rigidly to its 2% inflation target at the expense of growth. The White House could now use these revisions as further evidence to press its case.

For millions of Americans, though, the revisions underscore a more personal reality. A job market once presented as resilient is now revealed to have been much shakier. With fewer jobs than thought, weaker household income growth, and rising uncertainty, the labor market is entering a precarious phase. The debate in Washington may revolve around statistics, but the impact is being felt in homes and businesses across the country.

Mortgage Rates Sink to 6.5% but Affordability Still Freezes Buyers

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Mortgage rates have drifted lower once again, hitting a fresh low for 2025, but the relief has yet to thaw an otherwise sluggish housing market. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.5% this week, down slightly from 6.56% the prior week and the lowest level since October 2024. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate also moved lower to 5.6%. The decline extends a trend that has carried through much of the summer as bond yields fell alongside growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.

Yet even as borrowing costs reach their most attractive levels in nearly a year, homebuyers remain cautious. Mortgage Bankers Association data showed purchase applications dropped 3% from the previous week, signaling that lower rates are not drawing many new entrants into the market. Refinancing activity, which tends to be more rate-sensitive, rose by just 1%, suggesting only a modest response among households looking to restructure existing debt. Brokerage Redfin described the current environment as one producing a “trickle, not a surge” of demand, with affordability challenges still weighing heavily on potential buyers.

The central issue remains housing affordability. Home prices, while cooling in some regions, are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and many prospective buyers remain priced out despite the recent dip in borrowing costs. Supply shortages also persist as homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates during 2020 and 2021 are reluctant to sell, limiting inventory and keeping prices from adjusting downward in a meaningful way. This lock-in effect continues to hold back mobility in the market, even as conditions grow more favorable on the financing side.

Attention now shifts to broader economic forces that could determine whether mortgage rates continue to ease. Treasury yields, which mortgage rates closely track, have been under pressure as investors reassess the path of monetary policy. The upcoming August jobs report will be critical in shaping those expectations. If employment data comes in weaker than forecast, markets are likely to bet more aggressively on Fed rate cuts, which could drive borrowing costs lower still. Conversely, a strong report could quickly reverse recent gains, sending yields and mortgage rates higher again.

Recent indicators suggest the labor market is losing momentum. Job openings in July fell to their lowest level in ten months, with fewer available positions relative to unemployed workers. Meanwhile, private payroll data from ADP showed the economy added just 54,000 jobs in August, underscoring the slowdown. Economists point out that while layoffs remain limited, the ability for unemployed workers to re-enter the job market has become more difficult, reflecting a gradual cooling rather than a sharp downturn.

For now, mortgage rates are at their most favorable point in nearly a year, but affordability barriers, limited supply, and broader economic uncertainty mean the housing market remains stuck in neutral. The next move may depend less on where rates are today and more on whether labor market weakness forces the Fed to deliver deeper cuts that could eventually bring real relief to buyers.

Job Openings Slip Below Jobless Figures for First Time Since 2021

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For the first time in more than four years, the number of unemployed Americans has surpassed the number of available job openings, highlighting a turning point in the post-pandemic labor recovery. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), there were 7.18 million vacancies compared with 7.25 million unemployed workers. This pushed the ratio of job openings to job seekers down to 0.99, the lowest level since April 2021.

The shift marks a departure from the tight labor conditions that dominated much of the past three years, when employers struggled to attract talent and job seekers often had multiple options. Instead, the balance has tipped slightly in favor of employers, with fewer roles available and greater competition among applicants.

The data suggests the softer labor conditions are being driven more by a slowdown in hiring demand than a surge in job losses. Layoffs remain relatively subdued, indicating that workers currently employed are not facing widespread displacement. Instead, the challenge lies with individuals attempting to re-enter the workforce or find new opportunities after leaving prior roles.

Economists noted that job openings have been gradually trending lower throughout 2024 and 2025, rather than collapsing suddenly. This indicates a measured cooling rather than a shock-driven downturn, which is consistent with an economy that is slowing toward equilibrium rather than tipping into recession.

On the supply side, labor force participation fell to its lowest since late 2022. Demographics are partly to blame: the U.S. workforce continues to age, and participation among older workers has steadily declined. Policy also plays a role, as more restrictive immigration measures in recent years have limited the inflow of working-age migrants, reducing available labor.

While fewer workers in the labor pool can put pressure on certain industries still seeking talent, it also means that the rise in unemployment is cushioned compared to previous downturns. With both supply and demand easing at the same time, the job market appears to be rebalancing rather than unraveling.

For job seekers, the environment has become more competitive. Workers without recent employment may find it harder to secure positions, as openings are spread more thinly across industries. However, the relative stability of layoffs indicates that those currently in jobs are less vulnerable to sudden cuts, reducing the risk of mass unemployment events that typically accompany recessions.

The JOLTS report adds to the broader picture of a cooling labor market but stops short of signaling a contraction. Payroll gains and unemployment rates remain within ranges considered sustainable by economists, suggesting that conditions are closer to a long-term “steady state” rather than a downturn. The upcoming August employment report will provide further clarity, particularly on whether employers are continuing to add jobs at a pace consistent with stable growth.

Treasury Yields Spike as 30-Year Nears 5% Amid Global Bond Sell-Off

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, as long-dated European bonds sold off and a busy slate of corporate debt offerings pressured markets. The 30-year Treasury yield approached the 5% mark, reflecting investor concern over the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and broader economic conditions.

The move came as traders returned from the holiday weekend, digesting weak ISM manufacturing data that signaled softness in employment, overall activity, and prices paid, although new orders showed some recovery. Benchmark Treasury yields climbed roughly three basis points across the curve, with the 10-year and 30-year notes leading the advance. Block trades, including a large buyer of 10,000 10-year note contracts, helped stabilize yields near their session highs.

Yields in the United Kingdom and Europe also surged, contributing to pressure on U.S. debt markets. Analysts suggest that global long-term rates are recalibrating in response to rising inflation expectations abroad and uncertainties in policy direction. John Briggs, head of U.S. rates strategy at Natixis North America, noted that the 30-year approaching 5% is not a “magical number” but reflects genuine concerns about the path of long-dated bonds globally.

Investors are pricing in expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month, though bets remain modest. Currently, futures indicate roughly 22 basis points of a quarter-point reduction at September’s meeting, with slightly more than two total quarter-point cuts priced by year-end. Analysts caution that the magnitude of easing will depend heavily on the August jobs report due Friday, which will offer a key read on the labor market and economic momentum.

The labor market is central to the Fed’s policy outlook. Governor Christopher Waller has expressed support for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting, but signaled that more aggressive easing could be warranted if employment data show pronounced weakness and inflation remains contained. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate August payrolls rose by only 75,000, with the unemployment rate inching up to 4.3%.

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, emphasized that Treasury yields are pricing in uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves. She highlighted the market’s sensitivity to coherent policy signals and the potential for the jobs report to influence the term premium, particularly in longer maturities.

The spike in yields has important implications for investors and corporations alike. Higher long-term rates increase borrowing costs for issuers and can weigh on equity valuations, particularly for growth and rate-sensitive sectors. Conversely, rate volatility may offer opportunities for fixed-income investors to adjust portfolios in anticipation of potential Fed easing.

Traders also note that September is historically a weak month for long-dated interest-rate exposure, which could compound volatility as markets digest both domestic and international developments. Any deviation from expectations in the jobs report or inflation metrics could sharply alter Treasury pricing and market sentiment.

As the week progresses, all eyes will be on Friday’s employment figures, which are expected to set the tone for the Fed’s September policy decision. Until then, Treasury markets remain on edge, balancing global pressures, domestic economic signals, and uncertainty around the central bank’s path forward.

Housing Market Gains Momentum with Rising Supply and Record July Prices

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. home sales showed signs of renewed momentum in July, offering a glimmer of relief for buyers and sellers navigating one of the tightest housing markets in years. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes increased 2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units. That figure also marked a 0.8% gain compared with July 2024, defying expectations of a modest decline.

The pickup in activity reflects contracts that were signed earlier in the summer, when mortgage rates began to edge down from their spring highs. The average 30-year fixed mortgage briefly exceeded 7% in May but had retreated to around 6.67% by the end of June. That shift helped unlock demand from buyers who had been sidelined by affordability challenges.

At the same time, supply conditions continued to improve. The number of homes available for sale at the end of July climbed to 1.55 million, up nearly 16% from a year ago. That level represents a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since May 2020 but still short of the six-month threshold considered a balanced market. For prospective buyers, the increase in inventory has translated into more choice and slightly less upward pressure on prices.

Even so, home values remain stubbornly high. The median price of an existing home sold in July reached $422,400, a record for the month and 0.2% higher than a year earlier. That marked the 25th consecutive month of annual price gains, underscoring how persistent demand and limited long-term supply continue to shape the market. Still, with wage growth now outpacing home price appreciation in some regions, economists suggest the market could be approaching an inflection point where affordability begins to improve.

Regional and price-segment dynamics reveal additional shifts. Sales activity has been strongest at the higher end of the market, with transactions on homes priced above $1 million jumping more than 7% from a year ago. In contrast, sales of properties priced below $250,000 remained flat or declined, squeezed by limited availability and still-elevated borrowing costs. In the South, where condominium prices have fallen over the past year, demand for that segment showed particular resilience.

Market behavior also reflects growing participation from investors and cash buyers. Investors accounted for 20% of transactions in July, up sharply from 13% a year earlier, likely taking advantage of the increased supply. Meanwhile, 31% of sales were completed with all cash, compared with 27% last July. That unusually high share suggests that wealth from equities and housing gains is playing a greater role in the market.

Homes are also taking longer to sell. The typical property stayed on the market for 28 days in July, compared with 24 days a year ago. First-time buyers accounted for just 28% of sales, slipping from both June and the same month last year, reflecting the ongoing affordability strain at the entry level of the market.

Overall, July’s data points to a housing sector that is slowly recalibrating. Rising inventory and moderating mortgage rates are offering incremental relief, yet prices remain elevated, and demand is concentrated in higher price tiers. Whether the market has reached a true turning point may depend on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates and how quickly supply can return to more balanced levels.

Mortgage Rates Fall to Lowest Level Since 2024, But Relief May Be Short-Lived

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. mortgage rates dropped this week to their lowest point in nearly a year, offering a glimmer of relief for homeowners and prospective buyers navigating an expensive housing market. According to Freddie Mac data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.58%, down from 6.63% last week and the lowest reading since October 2024. The 15-year fixed rate also eased slightly, falling to 5.71%.

The decline comes as financial markets grow more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates in September. Although mortgage rates aren’t set directly by the Fed, they tend to move in tandem with expectations about the central bank’s future policy decisions.

Weak job growth in recent months and inflation figures that undershot economists’ projections have increased the likelihood of a rate cut. Traders now see a more than 90% probability of the Fed reducing rates by 25 basis points next month. That anticipation has already been factored into mortgage pricing, helping push borrowing costs lower.

Economists caution that borrowers shouldn’t assume today’s levels will continue falling. With much of the expected Fed policy shift already “priced in,” mortgage rates may hover in the current range rather than dropping sharply after the central bank makes its move. Some analysts even suggest volatility could return as new economic data on jobs, wages, and consumer spending is released in the coming weeks.

In other words, the window for buyers to lock in a rate in the mid-6% range may be limited.

For now, the latest decline in borrowing costs has sparked a modest uptick in refinancing activity. Applications to refinance existing mortgages rose 23% in the past week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications, however, barely moved, rising just 1% as affordability challenges continue to weigh heavily on potential buyers.

Even at 6.58%, mortgage rates remain well above pre-2022 levels, when many borrowers were able to secure loans below 4%. Combined with elevated home prices and limited housing supply, that means affordability remains stretched for first-time buyers in particular.

The direction of mortgage rates through the rest of 2025 will depend largely on how quickly the economy cools and how aggressive the Fed becomes in easing monetary policy. If inflation continues to trend lower and job growth slows further, rates could remain at the lower end of their recent range. However, any surprises in economic data could push borrowing costs higher again.

For now, borrowers considering a purchase or refinance may find this moment to be one of the most favorable opportunities since late last year.