Category: Economy

Trump Suggests Using Trade Penalties to Pressure Support for Greenland Plan

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

President Donald Trump said Friday that he may impose new tariffs on foreign countries as part of an aggressive effort to pressure allies into supporting U.S. acquisition of Greenland, once again turning to trade penalties as a geopolitical bargaining tool.

Speaking at the White House during a health care–related event, Trump framed Greenland as a national security imperative and suggested tariffs could be used against countries that resist his ambitions. “We need Greenland for national security,” Trump said. “So I may do that. I may put a tariff on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland.”

The comments mark a significant escalation in Trump’s long-running interest in acquiring the Arctic territory, which is an autonomous region of Denmark. While the U.S. already maintains a military base on the island, Trump has increasingly argued that outright ownership is necessary to counter growing influence from China and Russia in the Arctic.

The White House did not immediately clarify which countries could be targeted by the proposed tariffs or what form they might take. However, Trump’s remarks signal that trade policy may once again be deployed as leverage in diplomatic disputes, even those involving close U.S. allies.

Trump’s tariff threat comes amid mounting legal uncertainty surrounding his broader trade agenda. The president has dramatically expanded the use of tariffs since returning to office, pushing the average U.S. tariff rate to an estimated 17%. Many of these levies were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a move that has been repeatedly challenged in court.

Multiple lower courts have ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA, and the issue is now before the Supreme Court. A ruling from the high court could come soon and may determine whether the administration can continue imposing wide-ranging tariffs without congressional approval. Trump has warned that his economic agenda would be severely undermined if the court rules against him.

The Greenland comments also follow Trump’s recent use of tariff threats to pressure foreign governments on pharmaceutical pricing. The president has argued that U.S. drug prices should be aligned with lower prices paid overseas and said he warned foreign leaders to raise their prices or face steep tariffs on all exports to the United States.

“I’ve done it on drugs,” Trump said Friday. “I may do it for Greenland too.”

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly rejected the idea of a sale or transfer of sovereignty. Following meetings in Washington this week with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a delegation from Greenland and Denmark said they maintain a “fundamental disagreement” with the president’s position.

Trump has also previously suggested that the U.S. is weighing multiple options to secure Greenland, including economic pressure and, in extreme rhetoric, military considerations. Those statements have alarmed European allies and raised concerns about the long-term implications for NATO unity.

As the Supreme Court weighs the legality of Trump’s tariff powers and global trade partners respond to mounting uncertainty, the president’s Greenland push underscores how central tariffs have become to his foreign policy strategy. Whether the tactic yields concessions—or further strains alliances—may soon be tested.

Mortgage Rates Drop to Three-Year Low Following Trump’s $200 Billion Bond Purchase Plan

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a dramatic market shift that caught many economists off guard, mortgage rates have tumbled to their lowest point since September 2022, following President Trump’s bold announcement that government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.06% this week, down from 6.16% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. The 15-year rate similarly declined to 5.38% from 5.46%, marking a significant milestone for prospective homebuyers and homeowners considering refinancing.

The president’s January 8th social media post declaring he was “instructing my Representatives to BUY $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS” sent immediate ripples through financial markets. The announcement specifically targeted mortgage-backed securities, driving up demand for these bonds and subsequently pushing their yields downward—a direct pathway to lower consumer mortgage rates.

Market response was swift and substantial. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 16% surge in home purchase applications and a remarkable 40% jump in refinancing applications through the following Friday. These numbers suggest Americans are eager to capitalize on improved borrowing conditions after years of elevated rates that have kept many potential buyers sidelined.

“With mortgage rates much lower than a year ago and edging closer to 6 percent, MBA expects strong interest from homeowners seeking a refinance and would-be buyers stepping off the sidelines,” said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

However, industry experts are tempering expectations about a rapid housing market recovery. While lower rates provide relief, significant affordability challenges persist. Home prices remain elevated in many markets, and a substantial number of existing homeowners hold mortgages with rates far below current levels—creating what economists call the “lock-in effect” that discourages moving.

Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, projects mortgage rates will hover in the low-6% range throughout 2026, potentially supporting “modestly improving home sales.” Yet she emphasizes that any recovery will likely be “gradual rather than rapid” given persistent affordability constraints.

The policy move represents an unconventional approach to economic stimulus, directly targeting housing market conditions through government-sponsored enterprise balance sheets. While the immediate effect on rates has been clear, longer-term implications for the housing market, federal housing finance policy, and the broader economy remain subjects of intense debate among economists and policy analysts.

For now, Americans looking to enter the housing market or refinance existing mortgages have a window of opportunity that hasn’t existed since rates began their historic climb in late 2022.

U.S. Tariff Revenue Falls Sharply in December as Trade Volumes Continue to Reset

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. tariff revenue declined sharply in December, offering fresh evidence that President Trump’s aggressive trade policies are reshaping global commerce and slowing the flow of goods into American ports. A new report from the U.S. Treasury released Tuesday showed that $27.89 billion in tariff revenue was collected in December, nearly $3 billion less than in November and more than 10% below the October peak.

The December figure caps off a historically lucrative year for tariff collections, with total revenue reaching $264.05 billion in 2025—an unprecedented annual haul. However, it also marks the second consecutive monthly decline after the Trump administration rolled back or adjusted key tariffs late last year. October saw the highest monthly intake at $31.35 billion, followed by $30.76 billion in November before the more pronounced drop in December.

The downturn in tariff revenue reflects broader shifts in U.S. trade flows. Commerce Department data released alongside the Treasury report showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in November, the lowest level since mid-2009. While the data was delayed due to last fall’s government shutdown, it underscores a clear trend: less trade activity involving the United States, driven largely by sweeping tariff measures.

Administration officials have framed the shrinking trade deficit as a major policy success. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently credited President Trump’s trade agenda for the improvement, noting that the deficit has fallen back to levels not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. When Trump introduced his tariff regime earlier in the year, monthly customs revenues surged dramatically, rising from just $7.25 billion in February and climbing steadily through October.

Yet the recent step-down in revenue highlights the limits of tariffs as a long-term funding source. The Congressional Budget Office has already slashed its projected tariff receipts for the coming decade by roughly $1 trillion, suggesting that trade volumes are adjusting downward faster than policymakers initially anticipated. This has implications for Trump’s broader fiscal ambitions, many of which have leaned heavily on tariff income.

The president has repeatedly suggested that tariffs could fund a wide range of priorities, from tax cuts to infrastructure to national defense. Most recently, Trump argued that tariffs could support a proposed $500 billion annual increase in the U.S. military budget—a figure that exceeds twice the total tariff revenue collected in all of 2025.

Meanwhile, uncertainty continues to loom over global trade in 2026. The White House has issued new tariff threats, including a proposed 25% levy on goods from any country doing business with Iran. At the same time, a closely watched Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s broad “blanket” tariffs could arrive as early as this week.

Trade data underscores the scale of the shift already underway. Shipping analytics firm Project44 reported that U.S. imports from China fell 28% in 2025, while U.S. exports to China dropped 38%, describing the change as one of the sharpest bilateral trade contractions in recent history. While shipping volumes appear to be stabilizing, they are doing so at a markedly lower level.

As the U.S. recalibrates its trade posture, the rest of the world is moving in a different direction. The European Union recently approved a landmark free-trade agreement with Mercosur nations in Latin America, creating one of the world’s largest trade blocs and highlighting a growing divergence in global trade strategies.

U.S. Inflation Cools in December as Core Prices Rise at Slowest Pace Since 2021

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. inflation showed further signs of cooling in December, offering fresh evidence that price pressures across the economy are continuing to moderate as the year comes to a close. According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core consumer prices rose at their slowest annual pace since March 2021, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady in the near term.

On a core basis—excluding the volatile food and energy categories—prices increased 0.2% from November and rose 2.6% compared with a year earlier. That annual reading matched November’s figure and marked the weakest pace of core inflation in nearly five years. Headline inflation, which includes all categories, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, in line with economists’ expectations.

While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target, the steady downward trend over the past year has eased concerns that elevated prices could derail economic growth. Policymakers have increasingly signaled that inflation now poses less of a threat than a potential slowdown in the labor market, a view supported by recent economic data.

Economists pointed to signs that underlying inflation pressures are genuinely cooling. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, noted that December’s softer core reading came despite some price rebounds following unusually weak data in October and November. This, he said, suggests that inflation momentum has meaningfully slowed rather than temporarily paused.

The CPI report follows last week’s December jobs data, which showed the unemployment rate pulling back from a four-year high. Together, the inflation and labor market reports have strengthened investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its January 27–28 policy meeting. Futures market data from CME Group now indicate a roughly 95% probability that rates will remain steady.

A closer look at the report revealed mixed price trends for households. Food inflation remained a notable pressure point, with food prices rising 0.7% in December, outpacing overall inflation. Five of the six major grocery store food categories posted monthly increases, including grains, dairy, fruits, and beverages. Only meat prices declined, slipping 0.2% during the month.

Offsetting some of those pressures were declines in several key core categories. Used car and truck prices fell 1.7% in December, while airline fares dropped 0.5%. Transportation services overall also declined by 0.5%, helping keep core inflation contained.

Energy prices provided additional relief. Gasoline prices plunged 5.3% in December amid falling oil prices, contributing to a 2% monthly decline in the energy index. These declines helped temper headline inflation despite higher food costs.

Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic described the report as “very encouraging,” adding that it supports expectations that lingering tariff-related pressures on goods prices will fade in 2026. As inflation continues to cool and economic growth remains resilient, markets and policymakers alike appear increasingly confident that the worst of the inflation surge is firmly in the past.

DOJ Opens Case Against Fed Chair Powell

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed Sunday that the U.S. Department of Justice has issued grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve, opening a case that could potentially lead to a criminal indictment against him. The development marks a dramatic escalation in tensions between the central bank and the Trump administration, with Powell characterizing the move as part of an ongoing pressure campaign over interest rate policy.

According to Powell, the subpoenas are tied to his testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in June, where he addressed scrutiny surrounding cost overruns in the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation project. Powell has consistently disputed claims that the renovation involved luxury features or legal violations, stating that public reports and political accusations have been inaccurate and misleading.

In a recorded statement released Sunday night, Powell suggested the DOJ’s action goes beyond a factual dispute over his testimony. Instead, he framed the case as a response to the Federal Reserve’s refusal to align interest rate decisions with political demands.

“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public,” Powell said, “rather than following the preferences of the President.”

Powell emphasized that the issue at stake is whether monetary policy will continue to be guided by economic data and evidence, or whether it will be shaped by political pressure and intimidation. He defended his tenure at the Fed, noting that he has served under both Democratic and Republican administrations and has consistently followed the Fed’s congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.

The DOJ subpoenas come after months of increasingly public conflict between Powell and President Trump. The president has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates aggressively enough, despite the central bank beginning to ease policy in late 2025. After holding rates steady for much of the year, the Fed implemented three quarter-point rate cuts in September, October, and December, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

The dispute has also centered on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation in Washington, D.C. Trump has accused Powell of mismanagement and suggested the project’s cost ballooned to more than $3 billion — a figure Powell disputes. In July, Trump made a rare visit to the Fed’s headquarters, publicly clashing with Powell over the scope and cost of the renovations.

Powell testified to lawmakers that there were no luxury additions such as special elevators, rooftop gardens, or water features, countering allegations from administration officials that the project was “ostentatious” or unlawful.

President Trump told NBC News Sunday night that he was unaware of the DOJ probe. However, he reiterated criticism of Powell’s leadership, arguing that interest rates remain too high. When asked whether the investigation was intended to pressure the Fed, Trump denied the suggestion.

Market analysts warn that the case could have broader implications. Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI described the situation as an unprecedented confrontation, noting that how policymakers, investors, and Congress respond could determine whether Federal Reserve independence remains firmly protected.

The Justice Department has not publicly commented on the subpoenas. For now, Powell says he intends to continue leading the central bank as confirmed by the Senate, warning that the use of criminal investigations in monetary policy disputes could undermine institutional credibility.

“Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats,” Powell said, as the case places the Fed at the center of a historic legal and political clash.

America’s Hiring Stall: What the Weak Jobs Market Means for Investors in 2026

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The final U.S. jobs report of 2025 delivered a sobering message: the labor market has slowed to a crawl. With just 50,000 jobs added in December, the year closed with the weakest pace of hiring outside of a recession in more than two decades. For investors—particularly those focused on small-cap stocks—this shift carries important implications as the economy enters 2026.

Total payroll growth for 2025 reached only 584,000 jobs, a dramatic fall from the roughly 2 million jobs added in 2024. Monthly gains averaged fewer than 50,000 positions, a level economists say is consistent with stagnation rather than expansion. While the unemployment rate dipped modestly to 4.4%, the decline was driven more by a shrinking labor force than by robust hiring.

Digging deeper, the data reveals a fragile employment landscape. Job creation was heavily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, which together accounted for the majority of gains. Outside of those sectors, many industries experienced flat or negative hiring trends. Economists warn that future data revisions could show that overall employment actually contracted during parts of the year.

This environment has produced what many describe as a “no-hire, no-fire” economy. Companies are reluctant to lay off workers, but equally hesitant to expand payrolls amid higher borrowing costs, slower consumer demand, and lingering uncertainty around policy and global growth. For workers, this has translated into longer job searches and declining confidence. The share of unemployed individuals out of work for more than six months has risen sharply, signaling deeper structural weakness.

For investors, especially in the small-cap space, these conditions cut both ways. Slower job growth tends to pressure consumer spending, which can weigh on revenue for domestically focused companies. At the same time, a cooling labor market strengthens the case for interest rate relief later in 2026. If the Federal Reserve responds to weakening employment trends with rate cuts, smaller companies—often more sensitive to financing costs—could benefit disproportionately.

There are also early signs that the slowdown may be stabilizing. Layoff announcements declined in December, and private payroll data suggests hiring may be finding a floor. Some economists believe the worst of the labor market deceleration could already be behind us, setting the stage for a gradual recovery rather than a sharp downturn.

For small-cap investors, selectivity will be key. Businesses with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and exposure to resilient sectors may outperform if growth remains muted. Meanwhile, any meaningful improvement in hiring or labor participation could act as a catalyst for a broader re-rating across the small-cap universe.

As 2026 unfolds, the jobs market will remain a critical signal to watch. Whether this slowdown proves to be a pause—or a warning—will shape market sentiment, monetary policy, and investment opportunity in the months ahead.

US Labor Market Shows Continued Weakness as November Job Openings Miss Expectations

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The US labor market’s sluggish trajectory continued in November, with newly released government data revealing a sharper-than-expected decline in job openings and historically weak hiring activity. The figures paint a picture of an economy caught in what economists are calling a “no-hire, no-fire” limbo, where employers remain cautious about expansion while largely avoiding layoffs.

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 7.15 million job openings at the end of November, falling short of the 7.6 million economists had projected. This marks a continuation of the downward trend in available positions, with October’s figures also revised lower from 7.7 million to 7.45 million. The decline was particularly pronounced in accommodation and food services as well as transportation and warehousing, though construction showed some gains.

The timing of these weakness signals is notable, as November also saw the unemployment rate climb to a four-year high of 4.6%. This combination of rising joblessness and declining opportunities suggests the labor market may be losing momentum more rapidly than many forecasters anticipated.

Perhaps most concerning is the collapse in hiring activity. The hiring rate dropped to just 3.2% in November, marking one of the weakest readings since the Great Recession. Only April 2020, during the depths of the pandemic lockdowns, recorded a lower rate at 3.1%. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, characterized the situation bluntly as a “hiring recession,” noting that virtually no jobs have been added outside the healthcare sector since April.

The data reveals an economy where workers and employers alike are playing it safe. While separations held steady at 5.1 million—unchanged from both October and the previous year—the quits rate rose to 2%. This metric, traditionally viewed as a gauge of worker confidence, suggests employees retain some optimism about finding new opportunities, even as hiring activity stalls.

Not all indicators are pointing downward, however. Data from payroll processor ADP showed private employers added 41,000 positions in December, recovering from losses in the previous month. Bank of America’s internal employment analysis echoed this modest improvement, suggesting that the worst of the labor market slowdown may be behind us. The bank’s institute noted that while the “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic persists, there are signs that the deceleration may have stabilized.

As markets await Friday’s official unemployment data for December, the November figures serve as a reminder of the delicate balance facing policymakers. The Federal Reserve must navigate between supporting a weakening labor market and managing inflation concerns, all while employers demonstrate reluctance to commit to significant workforce expansion.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether this represents a temporary soft patch or the beginning of a more sustained period of labor market weakness.

Long-Maturity Treasuries Slide Into 2026 After Strong 2025 Gains

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Long-maturity U.S. Treasuries opened 2026 on a cautious note, following the market’s most robust annual performance in five years. While last year saw substantial gains for government bonds, investors are now recalibrating as the potential for additional Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts raises concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability.

The 30-year Treasury yield rose roughly two basis points to 4.87%, reflecting modest losses but signaling increased volatility after last year’s record gains. In contrast, shorter-dated Treasuries, which are more directly influenced by Fed policy, remained relatively stable or slightly lower. This divergence continues the trend observed in late 2025, when the Fed cut its target range by three quarter-point moves, leading short-term yields lower while long-term rates were supported by economic resilience and fiscal pressures.

Investor focus has shifted to how a potential new Fed leadership might approach monetary policy. Long-term bond yields face upward pressure not only from prospective rate cuts but also from the U.S. government’s challenging fiscal outlook and signs of continued economic strength. Data released late last year indicated the U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years, complicating the narrative that rate reductions alone would sustain low yields.

Market participants are also closely watching interest-rate derivatives. Recent trading shows heavy demand for options that protect against the federal funds rate dropping to 0% from its current 3.5% range, while swap contracts suggest a more moderate decline toward a 3% floor by year-end. These instruments highlight investor uncertainty over the Fed’s next moves and underline the tension between potential policy easing and persistent inflation, which remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

Despite these concerns, Treasuries continue to serve a strategic role for investors. Portfolio managers cite historically high stock valuations as a compelling reason to maintain exposure to government bonds, providing a hedge against market corrections. James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management, notes that volatility is likely to return to bond markets as investors wrestle with the Fed’s evolving policy stance. This environment may produce short-term swings in long-term yields, even as the overall trend for bonds remains influenced by macroeconomic fundamentals.

Globally, bond markets are experiencing similar pressures. Germany’s 10-year yields climbed six basis points to 2.91%, while the UK’s 10-year yield rose five basis points to 4.53%. In Australia, 10-year bonds slumped as yields jumped eight basis points on speculation that rising commodity prices could accelerate growth and prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates. Meanwhile, January marks one of the busiest months for new corporate bond issuance, increasing competition for investor capital and adding another layer of pressure on Treasury prices.

Looking ahead, Treasuries are expected to remain a key tool for risk management, particularly for investors balancing exposure to equities and small caps. While the bond market’s exceptional 2025 performance sets a high bar, 2026 may bring more volatility and narrower returns, underscoring the importance of strategic positioning across maturities.

2025 Year-End Wrap: Small-Cap Investors Eye Mining, Biotech, and Tech for 2026 Opportunities

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

As 2025 comes to a close, the investment landscape has offered a year of contrasts. Mega-cap tech stocks dominated headlines, driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, while the small-cap sector faced a challenging environment, weighed down by elevated interest rates, cautious credit markets, and selective investor demand. Yet for those focused on quality small-cap companies, the year also laid the groundwork for potential gains in 2026, particularly in mining, biotech, and technology sectors.

The Russell 2000, a key small-cap benchmark, lagged behind the broader S&P 500 in 2025. Despite underperformance, this divergence has created opportunity. Valuation gaps between small caps and large caps widened, offering investors attractive entry points in companies with strong fundamentals. Small-cap stocks with solid balance sheets and consistent cash flow outperformed peers reliant on speculative growth or cheap capital.

Certain sectors stood out for resilience and growth. Mining and natural resources small caps benefited from ongoing global demand for metals and energy transition materials. Lithium, copper, and critical minerals companies were particularly well-positioned as governments and private companies accelerated clean energy initiatives. These companies not only captured investor interest but also provided a hedge against inflation and volatility in broader equity markets.

The biotech sector saw selective strength as well. Smaller firms focused on innovative therapies, AI-assisted drug discovery, and niche medical devices attracted attention despite macroeconomic headwinds. With continued demand for breakthroughs in personalized medicine, gene therapy, and diagnostic technology, biotech small caps offered a combination of growth potential and sector tailwinds. Investors increasingly favored companies demonstrating revenue traction or near-term product catalysts over speculative pipeline stories.

Technology-focused small caps, including niche AI, cybersecurity, and software-as-a-service providers, also experienced renewed interest. While mega-cap tech firms dominated headlines, small-cap innovators positioned in AI infrastructure, enterprise solutions, and specialized tech services saw capital flow in. These companies benefited from both secular growth trends and attractive valuations relative to large peers, making them a compelling segment for investors looking to balance growth with risk management.

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook for small-cap equities appears cautiously optimistic. Analysts expect stabilization in interest rates, improving liquidity conditions, and renewed investor rotation from high-valuation mega caps into undervalued small caps. Investors are likely to focus on quality, balance sheet strength, and exposure to durable economic trends, particularly in mining, biotech, and technology. These sectors are well-positioned to capture structural tailwinds, whether from AI adoption, healthcare innovation, or energy transition.

While selectivity will be critical, the combination of lower valuations, sector-specific growth opportunities, and improving market sentiment provides a favorable backdrop for small-cap investors. Those disciplined in stock selection and sector focus may find meaningful upside potential as the market moves into 2026.

In summary, 2025 highlighted the challenges of small-cap investing but also underscored key opportunities. Mining, biotech, and technology sectors emerged as standout areas, offering both resilience and growth potential. As investors enter 2026, the small-cap space remains a fertile ground for disciplined, research-driven investment strategies.

Why Elevated U.S. Tariffs Are Becoming a Long-Term Reality — and What It Means for Small-Cap Stocks

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. tariff policy has undergone a dramatic transformation in 2025, reshaping the economic backdrop that investors will carry into the new year. Average tariff rates that once hovered near historic lows have surged above 15%, marking one of the sharpest shifts toward protectionism in decades. As 2026 approaches, market analysts widely expect these levels to remain largely intact, creating a new operating environment for companies—especially small-cap firms that are more sensitive to input costs and domestic demand.

Policy expectations across Wall Street suggest that the current tariff framework is no longer temporary. Multiple economic models now assume an average tariff rate near 15% through at least the first half of 2026. While limited exemptions may be granted on select goods, few observers see a broad rollback on the horizon. The implication is that businesses, investors, and consumers must adjust to tariffs as a structural feature of the U.S. economy rather than a short-term negotiating tactic.

Legal challenges to the administration’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs could introduce volatility, but most experts believe these efforts will not materially change the outcome. Even if courts restrict certain tariff powers, alternative statutory tools remain available to maintain similar rate levels. For markets, this means that any legal disruption is likely to be brief and tactical, not transformational.

Political incentives further reinforce the durability of current tariff policy. Trade protection has become a cornerstone of the administration’s broader economic agenda, tied to reshoring manufacturing, strengthening supply chains, and generating government revenue. Tariff collections in 2025 have already reached historically high levels, strengthening the case for maintaining the policy despite concerns over rising costs.

For small-cap companies, the persistence of elevated tariffs presents a mixed picture. On one hand, firms that rely heavily on imported inputs face margin pressure as higher costs work their way through supply chains. Many companies were able to temporarily cushion the impact by building inventory ahead of tariff increases, but those buffers are now thinning. As restocking occurs at higher tariff rates, pricing decisions will become more difficult—particularly for smaller businesses with limited pricing power.

On the other hand, small-cap stocks with domestic production, localized supply chains, or exposure to U.S. manufacturing could benefit from a more protected competitive landscape. Tariffs may reduce foreign competition in certain sectors, allowing domestic players to capture market share or stabilize pricing. For investors focused on small caps, this dynamic makes sector selection increasingly important.

Looking ahead, 2026 is shaping up to be the year when the economic consequences of tariffs become more visible. While some easing could occur around politically sensitive consumer goods, analysts do not expect a meaningful decline in overall rates. Instead, the emphasis is likely to shift toward managing the downstream effects on inflation, corporate earnings, and consumer spending.

For small-cap investors, clarity may be the most valuable takeaway. With tariff policy appearing set for the foreseeable future, markets can move past speculation and focus on fundamentals. Companies that adapt efficiently—by reshoring production, renegotiating supplier contracts, or passing through costs strategically—may emerge stronger. In a higher-tariff world, resilience and adaptability could become defining traits of the next generation of small-cap winners.

Homebuyer Momentum Builds as Pending Home Sales Record Biggest Monthly Jump Since Early 2023

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. housing market showed renewed signs of life in November as pending home sales posted their strongest monthly increase in nearly two years. New data from the National Association of Realtors reveals that contract signings rose 3.3% compared with October, far exceeding expectations and signaling that buyer activity may be stabilizing after a prolonged slowdown.

Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator for the housing market because homes typically go under contract one to two months before a sale is finalized. The November increase pushed the Pending Home Sales Index up to 79.2, a notable improvement even though the reading remains below the long-term benchmark of 100, which reflects average activity levels in 2001. Compared with November of last year, pending sales increased 2.6%, suggesting demand is gradually recovering.

One of the most important drivers behind the uptick in housing activity has been improving affordability. Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs, providing relief to buyers who had been priced out of the market. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered near 6.2% in recent months, down from approximately 7% earlier in 2025 and well below levels seen during the summer. Even modest declines in interest rates can significantly reduce monthly mortgage payments, encouraging more buyers to re-enter the market.

Slower home price growth has also contributed to rising buyer confidence. After years of rapid appreciation, price gains have moderated across much of the country, helping incomes catch up with housing costs. At the same time, wage growth has remained relatively strong, further supporting affordability and boosting purchasing power.

Regionally, pending home sales rose across all parts of the United States in November. The West recorded the largest month-over-month increase at 9.2%, reflecting strong pent-up demand in markets that were previously among the most constrained by affordability challenges. Gains in the Midwest, South, and Northeast suggest the recovery is becoming more evenly distributed rather than concentrated in isolated markets.

Inventory levels, while still tight by historical standards, have improved compared with last year. More homes available for sale have given buyers greater flexibility and reduced competitive pressures that previously discouraged many from making offers. This gradual improvement in supply has helped support the rise in contract activity without reigniting runaway price growth.

Despite the positive momentum, the housing market remains in a fragile recovery phase. Overall home sales in 2025 are still expected to rank near three-decade lows, underscoring how deeply elevated interest rates disrupted activity over the past several years. Many homeowners remain reluctant to sell because doing so would mean giving up ultra-low mortgage rates secured before 2022.

Looking ahead, housing market forecasts suggest a slow and uneven normalization rather than a sharp rebound. Continued declines in mortgage rates, steady wage growth, and incremental improvements in inventory will be critical to sustaining buyer demand. November’s surge in pending home sales does not mark a full recovery, but it does indicate that homebuyer momentum is building and that the long housing slowdown may be starting to ease.

This combination of improving affordability, stabilizing prices, and renewed buyer interest positions the housing market for a potentially stronger 2026 if current trends continue.

Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Sets New 2025 Record as Wall Street Extends Winning Streak

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high and extending Wall Street’s winning streak to four consecutive sessions, as investors looked past stronger-than-expected economic data and adjusted expectations around interest rate cuts.

The S&P 500 rose 0.46% to a record close of 6,909.79, marking its latest milestone in 2025. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.57%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained a more modest 0.16%. The steady advance comes as equities rebound from recent volatility, with markets finding renewed momentum heading into the final trading days before the Christmas holiday.

Tuesday’s rally unfolded despite data showing the U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly robust pace over the summer. According to the first read on third-quarter gross domestic product, the economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized rate—well above the 3.3% economists had expected. The report, delayed earlier by government shutdown disruptions, also highlighted resilient consumer spending, reinforcing the view that economic activity remains strong even as borrowing costs stay elevated.

That strength prompted traders to dial back expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in more than an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its January meeting, up from roughly 75% just a week ago. While investors still anticipate two rate cuts by the end of next year, the timing appears less certain as economic data continues to show resilience.

Adding nuance to the outlook, December consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed sentiment falling for a fifth straight month. The decline underscores a disconnect between hard economic data and consumer perceptions, suggesting households remain uneasy about inflation, interest rates, and the broader cost of living despite strong growth figures.

Beyond equities, commodities were a major highlight. Gold and silver prices continued their powerful rally, putting both precious metals on track for their strongest annual performance in more than 40 years. Copper also surged to a new record above $12,000 per ton, reflecting ongoing demand tied to infrastructure spending, electrification, and global supply constraints.

Corporate news added to the bullish tone. Shares of Novo Nordisk jumped after the Danish pharmaceutical giant received official U.S. approval to market its Wegovy weight-loss drug, reinforcing investor enthusiasm around the booming obesity treatment market. In the technology sector, megacap names led gains, with semiconductor stocks climbing and artificial intelligence heavyweight Nvidia helping lift the broader Nasdaq. Alphabet shares also advanced, contributing to the tech sector’s leadership.

Looking ahead, trading volumes are expected to thin as markets head into the holiday break. U.S. stock markets will close early on Wednesday and remain shut on Thursday for Christmas. Still, with the S&P 500 at record highs and investor optimism returning, attention is turning to whether a traditional “Santa Claus rally” could carry stocks into the new year, even as questions around interest rates and economic momentum remain firmly in focus.

November Jobs Report Signals Labor Softening—but Leaves the Fed on Hold

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The November jobs report offered fresh signs that the U.S. labor market is cooling, but not enough to materially alter the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy outlook. While the data points to slower hiring and a higher unemployment rate, policymakers and economists broadly agree that the figures fall short of triggering an immediate shift toward additional rate cuts.

According to the latest report, the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, a modest rebound after a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in more than four years. Under normal circumstances, a jump of that magnitude might raise alarms at the Fed. This time, however, the context surrounding the data matters just as much as the headline numbers.

Economists caution that recent employment figures may be distorted by technical and temporary factors, including the lingering effects of the government shutdown that spanned October and part of November. The Labor Department itself flagged higher-than-usual uncertainty in the data, citing lower survey response rates, changes in weighting methodology, and the use of a two-month analysis window instead of a single month. These quirks make it harder to draw firm conclusions about the true underlying trend in the labor market.

A significant portion of the weakness also stems from government employment. Federal payrolls declined sharply as deferred resignations tied to earlier buyout programs finally showed up in official counts. Since peaking earlier in the year, federal employment has fallen by more than a quarter-million jobs. While that has pushed the unemployment rate higher, it does not necessarily reflect broader weakness in private-sector hiring.

At the same time, labor force participation rose in November, suggesting that more people are actively looking for work. That dynamic can temporarily lift the unemployment rate even if the economy is not deteriorating rapidly. In other words, the increase in joblessness may be more about shifting labor supply than collapsing demand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized the need for caution when interpreting recent data. He has noted that both labor and inflation metrics may be distorted, not just volatile, and warned against overreacting to any single report. Some Fed watchers believe monthly payroll growth may be overstated and that underlying job creation could be closer to flat or slightly negative—a scenario consistent with a late-cycle slowdown rather than an outright downturn.

For now, the November report reinforces the Fed’s patient stance. Labor market softness appears real, but there is little evidence that the broader economy has stalled. Inflation trends and upcoming employment data, particularly for December and January, will be critical in determining whether policymakers feel confident enough to resume cutting rates.

In short, November’s jobs data neither forces the Fed’s hand nor closes the door on future easing. It keeps policymakers in wait-and-see mode—alert to downside risks, but not yet convinced that the economy requires immediate additional support.