The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.6% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, quickening from the 0.2% rise seen in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report. Over the past 12 months through August, headline CPI inflation stands at 3.7% before seasonal adjustment, up from 3.2% for the 12-month period ending in July.
The August monthly gain was primarily driven by a spike of 10.6% in the gasoline index. Gasoline was coming off a tamer 0.2% increase in July. Food prices also contributed to inflationary pressures, with the food at home index edging up 0.2% again last month. The food away from home index rose 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the energy index excluding gasoline picked up as well. Natural gas costs ticked up 0.1%, electricity prices rose 0.2%, and fuel oil prices surged 9.1%.
The core CPI, which removes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3% in August after a 0.2% gain in July. The shelter index has been a main driver of core inflation. It covers rental costs and owners’ equivalent rent, both of which have rapidly increased due to imbalances between housing supply and demand.
On an annual basis, the energy index has fallen 3.6%, as gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil costs are down over the past 12 months. However, the food and core indexes are up 4.3% and 4.3% year-over-year, respectively.
Within the core CPI, the main drivers have been shelter costs, up 7.3% over the last 12 months, along with auto insurance (+19.1%), recreation services (+3.5%), personal care (+5.8%) and new vehicles (+2.9%). Medical care services inflation has also accelerated to 6.6% over the past year.
Geographically, inflation varies significantly by region. The Northeast has seen 4.2% CPI inflation over the past year, the Midwest 3.9%, the South 3.7%, and the West just 2.9%. By city size, larger metropolitan areas over 1.5 million people have experienced 3.8% inflation, compared to 3.6% for mid-sized cities and 3.7% in smaller cities.
August’s monthly data shows inflation quickened after signs of cooling in July. While gasoline futures retreated in September, shelter inflation remains stubbornly high with no meaningful relief expected until mortgage rates decline substantially.
With core inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target, further interest rate hikes are anticipated to combat still-high inflation. But the path to a soft economic landing appears increasingly narrow amid recession risks.
The next CPI update will be released in mid-October, shedding light on whether persistent pricing pressures are continuing to squeeze household budgets. For now, the August report shows inflation picking up steam after the prior month’s encouraging data.
Looking Ahead
Consumers may get temporary relief in the near term at the gas pump, as oil and gasoline futures prices pulled back in September following OPEC’s modest production cut.
Yet the larger concern remains the entrenched inflation in essentials like food, rent and medical care. Shelter inflation in particular has shown little sign of abating, as rental rates and housing prices remain disconnected from incomes.
Mortgage rates have soared above 6% in 2023 after starting the year around 3%. The sharp rise in financing costs continues to shut many homebuyers out of the market. Until mortgage rates meaningfully decline, shelter inflation is likely to persist.
And that will be challenging as long as the Fed keeps interest rates elevated. Monetary policy has lagged in responding to inflation, putting central bankers in catch-up mode. Further rate hikes are expected in the coming months absent a significant cooling in pricing pressures.
But the risks of the Fed overtightening and spurring a recession continue to intensify. The path to a soft landing for the economy is looking increasingly precarious.
For consumers, it means further inflationary pain is likely in store before a sustained moderation emerges. Budgets will remain pressured by pricier essentials, leaving less room for discretionary purchases.
While the monthly data will remain volatile, the overall trend points to stubborn inflation persisting through year-end. The Fed will be closely watching to see if their actions to date have slowed price gains enough. If not, consumers should prepare for more rate hikes and resulting economic uncertainty into 2024.
