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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – New York NDRS; Raising Price Target

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Monday, April 01, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NYC NDRS. We hosted Orion CEO Travis Boone and CFO Scott Thanisch for a series of investor meetings in NYC last week. The key takeaway for us was management’s confidence in being able to capitalize on the significant upcycle in marine construction spending over the next several years.

Phase 2. Having completed Phase 1 of “righting the ship” in 2023, Orion is onto Phase 2 of its strategic plan: driving growth potential. Management highlighted numerous industry tailwinds across both business segments. Notably, the pipeline of opportunity has grown to over $11 billion from just $3 billion twelve months ago.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Schwazze (SHWZ) – Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results

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Monday, April 01, 2024

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Challenging Year. 2023 was a challenging year in both the Colorado and New Mexico markets highlighted by increasing competition and a supply/demand imbalance. In spite of the conditions, Schwazze continued to outperform the markets, a testament to management’s operating playbook, in our view.

4Q23. Revenue totaled $43.2 million, up from $40.1 million in 4Q22, but down sequentially reflecting typical seasonality. We had forecast $44.8 million. Driven by some one time charges, Schwazze reported a net loss of $30.9 million in 4Q23, or a loss of $0.43 per share, compared to a loss of $29.8 million, or a loss of $0.57 per share, last year. We had estimated a net loss of $10.1 million, or a loss of $0.13 per share.

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Alleviates A Stock Overhang

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Monday, April 01, 2024

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Repurchases shares. The company announced that it has repurchased and will retire 1.5 million of its shares from MSG National Properties for a $9.76 per share, or an attractive 11% discount from its closing price on March 29th. We believe that the repurchases alleviates a large overhang for the TSQ shares, with MSG now owning less than 200,000 shares post the repurchase. The move follows a 1.5 million share repurchase from MSG in June 2023 at $9.70 per share. 

Financially capable. As of December 31, there was $61 million in cash and it generated significant cash flow of $68 million last year. Furthermore, its debt leverage has been coming down, currently 4.4 times adj. EBITDA from over 5 times just 2 years earlier. Given its improving fundamental outlook, the board recently increased its annual dividend to $0.79 per share, offering a current annualized dividend yield at an attractive 7.2%. 

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AdTheorent Set to Go Private in $324 Million Cadent Acquisition

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Investors in the adtech company AdTheorent Holding Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTH) are set to receive a nice premium with the company’s announced acquisition by Cadent, LLC for $3.21 per share in cash.

The $324 million deal represents a 17% premium to AdTheorent’s 60-day volume-weighted average price and a 27% premium to its 90-day average as of March 28th. Upon completion of the transaction in the expected third quarter of 2024, AdTheorent will become a privately-held company under Cadent’s ownership.

Cadent is a leading provider of converged TV advertising solutions and is a portfolio company of the private equity firm Novacap. The combination allows Cadent to bolt-on AdTheorent’s machine learning advertising platform and technology.

For AdTheorent shareholders, the all-cash deal provides an attractive exit opportunity to cash out at a premium valuation. The company’s stock had traded between $2.15 and $3.35 over the past 52 weeks before the deal announcement sent shares surging over 40%.

AdTheorent’s board unanimously approved the transaction, stating that it “delivers immediate, certain and significant value” for shareholders. The company had gone public around two years ago, and CEO James Lawson noted that “the transaction validates the actions and investments we have made” positioning AdTheorent since then.

While the $3.21 per share price looks enticing for investors, AdTheorent did negotiate a 33-day “go-shop” period into the merger agreement. This allows the company’s advisors to actively solicit and consider superior proposals from other potential buyers through May 4th.

There is no guarantee that a better offer will emerge during the go-shop period. However, major AdTheorent shareholders controlling approximately 40% of the outstanding shares, including H.I.G. Growth Partners and company insiders, have already agreed to vote in favor of the Cadent transaction.

Unless a substantially higher bid comes in, the deal is expected to close in Q3 2024 after gaining AdTheorent shareholder approval and clearing regulatory hurdles including antitrust review.

For investors in AdTheorent, the timelines and deal certainty are important considerations. The deal with Cadent provides a unique opportunity to cash out at a premium valuation in the near-term. Alternatively, rejecting the deal leaves some possibility of a higher-priced acquisition down the road balanced against AdTheorent’s prospects and challenges operating independently.

The adtech sector has experienced significant volatility and compression in valuations over the past couple of years. In that context, AdTheorent’s ability to secure an all-cash transaction at a premium multiple could be viewed as a prudent move by the company’s board and leadership team.

As the “go-shop” period plays out over the next month, investors will be watching closely to see if any interloper emerges to potentially drive up the acquisition price for AdTheorent. But barring a topper bid, AdTheorent shareholders can likely bank on cashing in their stakes at a nice premium to recent trading prices before the company debuts as a Cadent subsidiary later this year.

Crypto’s Fallen Star: Sam Bankman-Fried Sentenced to 25 Years in Massive FTX Fraud Case

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The meteoric rise and catastrophic fall of Sam Bankman-Fried reached its climax on Thursday as the former cryptocurrency wunderkind was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for orchestrating a massive fraud that stole billions from customers of his failed FTX exchange. The sentence handed down by U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan represents a stunning downfall for the 32-year-old who was once hailed as the new face of the crypto industry before becoming a pariah following FTX’s implosion last year.

Bankman-Fried, who founded and led FTX until its rapid collapse in November 2022, was convicted in October of defrauding investors and misappropriating billions in customer funds. Prosecutors alleged the former billionaire siphoned $14 billion in customer deposits from FTX to fund risky bets at his Alameda Research hedge fund, while lying to investors and customers about FTX’s financial condition.

“He betrayed the trust of his customers, investors, lenders, and prosecutors with extraordinary measures of greed and arrogance,” Kaplan said in delivering the 25-year sentence. The judge lambasted Bankman-Fried’s “exceptional flexibility with the truth” and “brazenness” in carrying out the fraud schemes.

While his defense attorneys argued for leniency and just 6.5 years behind bars, prosecutors pushed for decades in prison, saying Bankman-Fried’s crimes represented one of the most brazen frauds in American history. In the end, the 25-year term landed in the middle, though Kaplan made clear his disdain for Bankman-Fried’s actions and lack of remorse, calling his conduct “reprehensible.”

The sentencing bookends a shocking downward spiral for the former crypto prodigy whose name was once synonymous with the soaring growth and potential of digital currencies and assets. At the height of his success, Bankman-Fried was celebrated for building a multi-billion dollar crypto empire while embracing ethics and effective altruism. But it all unraveled in spectacular fashion when the house of cards collapsed at FTX.

The fallout from FTX’s bankruptcy shook faith in the crypto industry to its core. Retail investors lost life savings, major companies faced financial ruin, and cries for more regulation rang out globally. In the immediate aftermath, Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies saw massive sell-offs amid a “crypto winter” as investors fled the sector.

However, over a year later, the crypto market has mounted a stunning resurgence that may signal the turning of the page on one of its darkest chapters. Led by Bitcoin’s meteoric rise above $30,000 for the first time since the FTX collapse, the total crypto market cap has rebounded to levels not seen since mid-2022.

The bulls have been let loose again as more institutional investors embrace crypto, with BlackRock recently launching a spot Bitcoin private trust to provide direct ownership of the leading digital currency. Crypto trading volumes and activity on leading exchanges like Coinbase and Binance have also surged.

While Bankman-Fried begins serving his decades-long sentence that will take him into his 50s, the cryptoworld he once towered over has re-emerged in full force. The scandals spurred greater regulatory scrutiny and industry reform, but it did not freeze out crypto’s underlying blockchain technology and innovative potential.

For the disgraced founder, his 25-year prison term essentially equates to a life sentence in the prime years of his career. The judge made clear that Bankman-Fried’s actions were “reprehensible” and deserved severe consequences as a deterrent to corporate bad actors. Crypto’s future, however, shines brightly again – a stark contrast to the deep craters left in the wake of FTX’s seismic implosion just over a year ago.

PDS Biotechnology (PDSB) – FY2023 Results Included Changes In Development Strategy

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Thursday, March 28, 2024

PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

FY2023 Financial Results Included Updated Clinical Trial Strategy. PDS Reported a FY2023 loss of $44.3 million or $(1.43) per share, with cash on December 31, 2023, of $42.9 million. Importantly, the company changed its clinical development plan for PDS1010 and PDS01ADC. The Phase 3 VERSAMUNE-003 will not begin as we expected in 1H24. A Phase 3 trial testing the Triple-Therapy combination will be conducted instead. 

Decision Was Driven By Data From Two Trials. PDS has completed two Phase 2 trials, its VERSATILE-002 trial and the Triple Combination Study conducted by the National Cancer Institute (NCI). VERSATILE-002 trial tested the combination of PDS0101 with Keytruda (pembrolizumab, a PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor), while the Triple Therapy Trial tested PDS0101, a checkpoint inhibitor, and PDS01ADC, a proprietary IL-12-derived molecule.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Boundless Bio $100M IPO to Advance Novel Cancer Therapies

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Boundless Bio, a biotech company pioneering a new approach to treating cancer, made its public debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange today in a $100 million initial public offering. The Cambridge, Massachusetts company is the latest biotech firm to go public in 2024 after last year’s IPO drought, pricing its shares at $16 each under the ticker symbol “BOLD.”

The $100 million capital raise will provide a major boost to Boundless Bio’s pipeline of experimental cancer therapies that target extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA), double-stranded DNA molecules that exist outside of chromosomes and can contain amplified oncogenes driving tumor growth.

“EcDNA represents an exciting new frontier in cancer biology and a promising opportunity for therapeutic intervention,” said Zachary Hartman, CEO of Boundless Bio. “With this successful IPO, we are now well-capitalized to advance our novel ecDNA-targeted candidates through clinical trials and hopefully translate this cutting-edge science into meaningful treatments for patients.”

Leading the way for Boundless is BBI-355, the company’s most advanced program that inhibits checkpoint kinase 1, an enzyme involved in ecDNA replication and transcription. BBI-355 is currently being evaluated in the Phase 1/2 POTENTIATE study, with initial data from up to 90 patients expected in the second half of this year.

Not far behind is BBI-825, an oral ribonucleotide reductase inhibitor that targets a different mechanism related to ecDNA biology. This second clinical candidate entered Phase 1/2 testing just last month in the STARMAP trial, with early results anticipated in late 2025.

In addition to developing therapeutics, a portion of the $100 million IPO proceeds will fund Boundless Bio’s efforts to create a diagnostic test called ECHO to detect ecDNA levels in cancer patients’ tumors. The company believes this could enable more precise treatment by identifying patients most likely to respond to ecDNA-targeted therapies.

The successful Nasdaq listing bucks the trend of a biotech IPO market that was essentially frozen in 2023 amid volatile market conditions. But investor sentiment appears to have rebounded in 2024, with Boundless Bio becoming the seventh biotech to go public so far this year.

“This is an incredibly promising time for Boundless Bio and for companies working on novel modalities that could reshape cancer treatment,” said Tricia Lorida, a biotech analyst at SVB Securities. “While ecDNA therapies are still at an early stage, there is certainly excitement around targeting these unique DNA drivers of tumor growth and genomic instability.”

Boundless Bio’s IPO was led by Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim Securities, Piper Sandler, and Leerink Partners as joint book-running managers. The company granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 937,500 shares at the IPO price, which could raise the total deal proceeds to $115 million if exercised in full.

With the $100 million-plus capital infusion, Boundless Bio is well-positioned to advance its pioneering work in the emerging field of ecDNA biology as the company aims to unlock new therapeutic options for cancer patients. The successful IPO marks an ambitious first step, but much will ride on the clinical data readouts expected over the next couple of years.

The successful $100 million IPO by Boundless Bio could pave the way for more biotech companies to tap the public markets in 2024 as investor appetite appears to be returning. After a dismal 2023 that saw very few biotechs go public, the new year has brought a flurry of IPO activity, with Boundless Bio becoming the seventh biotech to debut on the Nasdaq. Other drug developers waiting in the wings may seize the opportunity to join the IPO queue if market conditions remain favorable. An opening of the IPO window would provide a crucial capital infusion for biotech firms to continue advancing their R&D programs amid a challenging funding environment. While clinical data will ultimately determine the fates of these newly public companies, a reinvigorated IPO market bodes well for biotech innovation lingering in the pipeline.

Big Pharma Goes Bio-Prospecting: Why Major Drug Makers Are Buying Innovative Biotech Startups

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The biotech sector has seen a flurry of acquisition activity in recent months, with large pharmaceutical companies opening their checkbooks to snap up promising small and micro-cap players. This deal-making frenzy underscores the value that nimble startups can bring to big pharma through their cutting-edge research and drug development pipelines.

For the pharmaceutical giants, acquiring innovative biotechs provides a vital influx of new drug candidates and therapies to revitalize stagnant pipelines and drive future revenue growth. Many large drug makers have struggled to internally develop enough new blockbuster treatments to replace aging cash cows going off-patent. Rather than go it alone in risky early-stage R&D, they are turning to biotech upstarts working at the frontiers of medicine.

These small biotech firms are proving to be fertile ground for novel drug discoveries. Despite their tiny team and budget, biotech startups can move nimbly to translate university research into therapeutic candidates. Their laser focus on narrow areas like orphan diseases, gene therapies, or targeted oncology treatments allows them to rapidly innovate in ways that large pharma bureaucracies cannot.

By acquiring these startups, big pharma gains a fast-track to promising new drugs and therapies that would take years and billions to develop internally. They can get first-mover advantage on groundbreaking new treatment modalities. Just as importantly, they acquire the entrepreneurial scientific talent behind the discoveries.

This acquisition appetite from pharma giants shows no signs of slowing. Just this month, AbbieVie acquired small biotech Landos Biopharma for $212 million to gain its promising autoimmune pipeline. AstraZeneca paid $2.4 billion for Fusion Pharmaceuticals and its next-gen oncology radioconjugates. The list goes on.

The drivers behind this deal surge were presciently spotted by Channelchek back in December 2023. Channelchek’s biotech research analysis predicted that the beaten-down biotech sector was poised for a major rebound, writing:

“The fresh upswing in biotech M&A follows a wave of dip buying from some the world’s largest asset managers in shares of industry leaders like Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been particularly aggressive stepping in to purchase stakes in key biopharma bluechips.”

Channelchek’s forecast proved accurate, as biotech stocks have rallied and M&A activity has heated up in recent months. Big pharma’s shopping spree for innovative biotechs continues to gain momentum.

As Nico Pronk, Chief Executive Officer at Noble Capital Markets, stated: “Our platform aims to help amplify the stories of these cutting-edge biotech innovators to the investors and strategic partners seeking out emerging growth opportunities.” There is a funding gulf that still exists for startups looking to take their discoveries to the next level.

For investors and emerging biotechs seeking to capitalize on this next wave of consolidation, Noble Capital Markets is hosting its Emerging Growth Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference on April 17-18, 2024. This online investor forum will allow public healthcare, biotech and medical devices firms to present their company stories directly to institutional funds, family offices, and retail investor audiences. To register for this event showcasing the future disruptors of healthcare, visit the conference registration page here.

The big pharma acquisition binge shines a light on the value that small, innovative biotech players can bring to the healthcare ecosystem through their scientific discoveries. With deep-pocketed buyers on the prowl, the stage is set for the next generation of medical breakthroughs to be commercialized at scale.

Alamos Gold’s Acquisition of Argonaut Gold Points to Renewed Anticipation Mining Sector

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The gold mining industry saw an intriguing deal announced this week, with mid-tier producer Alamos Gold Inc. unveiling plans to acquire smaller rival Argonaut Gold Inc. for US$325 million. The transaction highlights an ongoing trend of consolidation in the metals mining space, as bigger players look to grow through acquisitions of promising assets and companies.

For Alamos, the main prize in this deal is the Magino development project in Ontario, Canada owned by Argonaut. Located right next door to Alamos’ Island Gold mine, Magino provides the company an opportunity to combine the two operations into one large, low-cost complex. Alamos expects to realize over US$500 million in synergies by integrating the two adjacent mines.

The acquisition of Magino significantly increases Alamos’ production profile. The combined company is expected to produce over 600,000 ounces of gold annually in the near-term, with longer-term potential exceeding 900,000 ounces per year at declining costs. This expanded scale bolsters Alamos’ position as one of Canada’s largest and lowest cost gold producers.

While Alamos gains Magino through this transaction, Argonaut’s other assets in the U.S. and Mexico will be spun out into a newly created company called SpinCo that will be owned by Argonaut’s current shareholders. This includes the operating Florida Canyon mine in Nevada as well as several development and exploration projects in Mexico.

The Alamos-Argonaut deal follows a number of similar acquisitions of smaller gold companies by more established miners over the past year. In 2023, Agnico Eagle Mines acquired Teck Resources’ minority stake in the Minas de San Nicolas mine in Mexico, while Kinross Gold acquired Great Bear Resources and its promising Dixie project in Ontario. Going back to 2022, there were several billion-dollar M&A transactions, including Newmont’s acquisition of Newcrest’s stake in the Cadia mine and Yamana Gold’s takeover by the Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle joint venture.

According to analysts, this renewed appetite for M&A activity reflects a growing consensus that a new bull cycle may be emerging for precious metals like gold and silver. Record high inflation rates, continued economic uncertainty, and a lack of major new production sources coming online have contributed to this increasingly bullish outlook.

The major gold producers are acquiring to restock their project pipelines and take advantage of prevailing low valuations for many junior developers and explorers. With higher metals prices anticipated, the big miners want to get positioned now ahead of the curve.

In addition to building out their growth profiles through M&A, the large miners are also investing heavily in exploration and advancing their existing development projects. This dual strategy of acquisitions and organic growth initiatives should help drive a new phase of production growth across the sector in the coming years as a potential bull market unfolds.

For smaller mining companies like Argonaut, deals like this provide an attractive exit opportunity and way to unlock value for shareholders. But they also highlight the continual restructuring happening in the mining space, as promising assets and companies get consolidated into the hands of more well-capitalized mid-tier and senior producers.

With metals prices expected to keep rising on the back of supply/demand imbalances, this wave of consolidation could be just the beginning. Analysts anticipate an acceleration of M&A activity as the big miners look to position themselves for the next bullish upswing in the commodity cycle.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list in the metals & mining sector.

Trump’s Truth Social Debut: A High-Stakes Gamble for Bullish Investors

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Donald Trump’s social media platform Truth Social hit the public markets with a bang, surging over 30% on its first day of trading and ballooning the former president’s stake in the company to over $5 billion. However, the staggering valuation and volatility highlight both the risks and potential rewards for investors looking to capitalize on Truth Social’s polarizing popularity.

Trading under the appropriate ticker DJT, Truth Social’s parent company managed to achieve a peak market capitalization around $9 billion despite the fledgling business having under $5 million in sales over the prior year. The massive $6.8 billion opening valuation put Truth Social on par with well-established companies like U.S. Steel and Skechers.

This eye-popping disconnect from financial fundamentals echoes the frenzied trading in meme stocks like GameStop that has gripped markets in recent years. In Truth Social’s case, the dramatic stock rise seems fueled largely by Trump’s devoted base of supporters, who have banded together to push up the shares.

For investors who bought in early, those efforts have paid off handsomely – at least on paper. However, cashing in those gains won’t be easy for Trump himself or others with a major stake. Stocks that go public through deals like Truth Social’s typically prohibit insider sales for 6 months.

Trump and the seven-member Truth Social board, stacked with allies like his son Don Jr., certainly have incentive to allow some profits to be taken off the table soon. Any signal of insider selling could severely dent the company’s lofty stock price if shareholders perceive waning confidence.

Therein lies one of the biggest risks surrounding an investment in Truth Social – the potential for exceedingly high volatility driven by speculation rather than business performance. If Trump’s devoted base sours on the company’s prospects, a spiral could ensue.

On the other hand, the frenzied first day demonstrated how Trump’s mere involvement and ability to marshal his base can supercharge an investment thesis, at least in the short term.

Additionally, Trump may receive tens of millions of extra shares if the sky-high valuation holds up in the coming weeks. This would further concentrate his influence over the company’s future.

For risk-tolerant investors, there’s also the potential that Truth Social could eventually disrupt incumbent social media platforms and transform into a financially viable business at scale. Though it has struggled against larger rivals thus far, Trump’s massive following of over 90 million combined on X and Facebook could provide a springboard.

From a trading perspective, Truth Social’s arrival has already juiced options volumes to potentially record levels. Traders loaded up on bullish call options betting on shares surging to $80 or $90 in a sign of the speculative frenzy around the stock.

Ultimately, while Truth Social’s jaw-dropping debut minted a new billionaire out of Trump, it has set the stage for a gladiator battle between bullish and bearish investors. With both immense risks and rewards, Truth Social is shaping up as the ultimate “investor Rorschach test” based on one’s convictions around Trump and his ability to create a viable media business.

Major Bridge Collapse in Baltimore Disrupts Shipping, Highlights Infrastructure Risks

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In a shocking incident early Tuesday morning, the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore collapsed after being struck by a large container ship. The bridge carried Interstate 695 over the Patapsco River, a critical transportation artery southeast of the Baltimore metropolitan area. Up to seven people may have fallen into the water after vehicles on the bridge were impacted, with two rescued so far.

This catastrophic event has wide-ranging implications, not just for the tragic loss of life and regional transportation, but also for the shipping and logistics industry. The container ship involved has been identified as the Singapore-flagged DALI, a 948-foot vessel chartered by shipping giant Maersk and operated by Synergy Marine Group.

While the cause is still under investigation, the incident starkly highlights the risks and vulnerabilities faced by the shipping industry and supply chains. A single accident can bring a vital port and transportation hub to a standstill. The U.S. Coast Guard has already suspended all vessel traffic in and out of the Port of Baltimore until further notice.

This is likely to cause significant disruptions and delays, not just for Baltimore but rippling across global shipping routes and supply chains that rely on the port. The Port of Baltimore handled over 15 million tons of foreign cargo in 2021 and is a critical gateway for international trade on the U.S. East Coast.

Investors in the shipping and logistics sectors will be watching developments closely. Major players like Maersk could face legal liabilities, higher insurance costs, reputational damage, and loss of business from prolonged port closures. Smaller shipping companies that rely on the Baltimore port may be even more heavily impacted operationally and financially.

The incident also casts a harsh spotlight on the state of U.S. infrastructure. Despite the Biden administration’s efforts through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, incidents like this underscore the costs and risks of deficient transportation infrastructure. According to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, over 43,000 bridges across the U.S. are classified as structurally deficient.

This could spur renewed focus on infrastructure spending and improvements, creating potential opportunities for companies involved in construction, engineering, and building materials. However, it also highlights risks for industries like trucking and logistics that depend heavily on safe and reliable transportation networks.

In the small cap space, companies with localized operations around the Baltimore area could face disruptions to business activity and supply chains. This may create trading opportunities for investors watching the impacts closely. Conversely, small caps that provide solutions for infrastructure monitoring, maintenance and security may see increased interest.

Overall, while the human toll is the primary tragedy, this incident is likely to have significant ripple effects across the economy, policy landscape and investment markets in the weeks and months ahead. Investors would be wise to closely monitor developments and reassess potential risks and opportunities across sectors like shipping, infrastructure, and industrial small caps.

Nuvation Bio Acquires AnHeart Therapeutics, Gains Promising Oncology Assets

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In a strategic move to strengthen its oncology pipeline, Nuvation Bio Inc. (NYSE: NUVB), a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel cancer therapies, has announced its acquisition of AnHeart Therapeutics Ltd. in an all-stock transaction. This acquisition promises to transform Nuvation Bio into a late-stage global oncology company, positioning it as a potential commercial organization by the end of 2025.

The deal, which is subject to approval by AnHeart’s shareholders and other customary closing conditions, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2024. Upon completion, the former shareholders of AnHeart will own approximately 33% of Nuvation Bio on a fully diluted basis, while the current stockholders of Nuvation Bio will retain a 67% stake.

The primary asset driving this acquisition is taletrectinib, AnHeart’s lead investigational therapy and a next-generation ROS1 inhibitor for the treatment of ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Taletrectinib has already received Breakthrough Therapy Designations from both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA).

Notably, taletrectinib is currently completing two pivotal Phase 2 studies, TRUST-I in China and TRUST-II, a global pivotal study, potentially positioning it as a best-in-class treatment option for patients with ROS1-positive NSCLC. The NMPA has also granted Priority Review Designation to New Drug Applications for taletrectinib, further underscoring its potential.

In addition to taletrectinib, the acquisition also brings safusidenib, a potentially best-in-class mutant IDH1 inhibitor, into Nuvation Bio’s pipeline. Safusidenib is currently being evaluated in a global Phase 2 study for the treatment of patients with grades 2 and 3 IDH1-mutant glioma.

“This transaction represents a significant milestone for our company and reflects Nuvation Bio’s continued commitment to developing therapies for patients with the most difficult-to-treat cancers,” said David Hung, M.D., Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Nuvation Bio. “AnHeart’s lead asset, taletrectinib, which will become our lead asset as it completes two pivotal studies, is a differentiated, next-generation ROS1 inhibitor with a potentially best-in-class profile that may overcome the significant limitations of existing therapies.”

For Nuvation Bio, this all-stock acquisition preserves the company’s robust cash balance, enabling the development of both the newly acquired assets and its existing pipeline without the immediate need to raise additional capital. This financial strength positions Nuvation Bio to execute its development strategy effectively and advance its combined portfolio of differentiated oncology therapeutic candidates.

The acquisition also brings together the talented teams from both companies, with Nuvation Bio’s current management team, including Dr. Hung, remaining at the helm. Additionally, Min Cui, Ph.D., Founder and Managing Director of Decheng Capital, an investor in AnHeart, and Junyuan Jerry Wang, Ph.D., Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of AnHeart, will join Nuvation Bio’s board of directors.

As the demand for innovative cancer therapies continues to grow, Nuvation Bio’s acquisition of AnHeart Therapeutics represents a strategic move to bolster its oncology pipeline and position itself as a potential commercial organization in the near future. With taletrectinib and safusidenib as promising additions to its portfolio, Nuvation Bio is poised to make significant strides in addressing the unmet needs of patients with challenging forms of cancer.

AbbVie’s Acquisition of Landos Biopharma Highlights Potential in Small-Cap Biotech

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In a strategic move that could have significant implications for the small-cap biotech sector, pharmaceutical giant AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) announced its acquisition of Landos Biopharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: LABP), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel oral therapeutics for autoimmune diseases. The deal, valued at approximately $212.5 million including contingent value rights, underscores the growing interest and potential in the small-cap biotech space, particularly in the field of inflammatory and autoimmune diseases.

Under the terms of the agreement, AbbVie will acquire Landos at $20.42 per share in cash upon closing, plus a contingent value right of up to $11.14 per share, subject to the achievement of a clinical development milestone. The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2024, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Landos’ stockholders.

The primary asset driving this deal is NX-13, Landos’ lead investigational asset and a first-in-class, oral NLRX1 agonist with a bimodal mechanism of action. NX-13 is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC), a chronic inflammatory bowel disease affecting millions worldwide.

“With this acquisition, we aim to advance the clinical development of NX-13, a differentiated, first-in-class, oral asset with the potential to make a difference in the lives of people living with ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease,” said Roopal Thakkar, M.D., AbbVie’s senior vice president and chief medical officer, global therapeutics.

NX-13’s unique bimodal mechanism of action, which is both anti-inflammatory and facilitates epithelial repair, could provide a novel approach to treating UC and other inflammatory bowel diseases. If successful, it could address a significant unmet need in this therapeutic area.

The acquisition underscores AbbVie’s commitment to strengthening its portfolio in inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, which represent a substantial market opportunity. According to estimates, the global inflammatory bowel disease treatment market is projected to reach $8.6 billion by 2027, driven by factors such as increasing prevalence, rising healthcare expenditure, and a growing focus on developing targeted therapies.

For small-cap investors, this deal highlights the potential value and attractiveness of emerging biotech companies with promising pipeline candidates. As larger pharmaceutical companies seek to bolster their portfolios and drive innovation, strategic acquisitions of small-cap biotechs with compelling assets can provide attractive exit opportunities and significant returns for investors.

This acquisition also comes at an opportune time, as Noble Capital Markets’ upcoming virtual healthcare event on April 17-18 will showcase emerging growth companies in the healthcare, biotech, and medical device industries. Investors interested in exploring opportunities in the small-cap biotech space should mark their calendars for this event, which promises to provide valuable insights and potential investment prospects in this dynamic sector.

With the rising interest in novel therapies for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, the AbbVie-Landos deal serves as a reminder of the potential value that can be unlocked in the small-cap biotech realm. As larger players seek to fortify their pipelines, the spotlight on promising small-cap innovators is likely to intensify, presenting exciting opportunities for investors in this space.