slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com, Author at Channelchek

Coincheck Group Expands Global Footprint with 3iQ Acquisition

Posted on January 8, 2026January 8, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Coincheck Group N.V. (Nasdaq: CNCK) has announced a significant expansion of its institutional capabilities through an agreement to acquire approximately 97% of 3iQ Corp., a pioneering digital asset investment manager based in Ontario, Canada. The transaction values 3iQ at approximately $111.8 million and represents a strategic repositioning for the Japan-focused crypto exchange as it pursues aggressive global growth. For small cap investors seeking exposure to the digital asset infrastructure space, this deal offers a compelling case study in how emerging players are consolidating capabilities to compete against larger, established financial institutions entering the crypto market.

The all-stock transaction will see Coincheck Group issue 27.1 million newly issued ordinary shares to Monex Group, its majority shareholder and current owner of the 3iQ stake. Based on an agreed share price of $4.00, the deal also includes provisions for minority shareholders to receive up to 810,435 additional shares, potentially bringing Coincheck Group’s ownership to 100%. Subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, the acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.

Founded in 2012, 3iQ has established itself as a trailblazer in bringing digital assets into traditional investment frameworks. The company achieved several industry firsts, including launching North America’s first major exchange-listed Bitcoin and Ether funds on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2020, and introducing the world’s first Ethereum staking ETF in 2023. More recently, 3iQ launched one of the first Solana staking ETFs and a spot-based XRP ETF in 2025. The firm’s QMAP platform, launched in 2023, provides a managed account solution for sophisticated investors seeking risk-managed digital asset exposure. Its recent partnership with UAE-based Further Asset Management to launch a market-neutral, multi-strategy hedge fund demonstrates 3iQ’s expanding geographic reach and product sophistication.

For investors in Coincheck Group, this acquisition represents a meaningful pivot toward institutional services and geographic diversification. While Coincheck has dominated Japan’s retail crypto market—ranking number one in trading app downloads for over six consecutive years—the addition of 3iQ’s institutional infrastructure opens new revenue streams in North America and beyond. This is particularly significant for small cap investors, as the deal transforms CNCK from a single-market operator into a multi-jurisdictional player with products spanning retail trading, institutional prime brokerage, and regulated investment products. The company’s current market capitalization positions it as an accessible entry point for investors who believe traditional finance’s adoption of digital assets is still in early innings. CEO Gary Simanson emphasized that the combination positions Coincheck Group to serve traditional financial institutions now seeking digital asset exposure for their clients. The company expects the acquisition to be earnings accretive, while spreading its public company costs over a more diversified revenue base.

The 3iQ deal follows Coincheck Group’s October 2025 acquisition of Aplo SAS, a Paris-based crypto prime brokerage, and its March 2025 purchase of staking platform Next Finance Tech. Management has indicated plans to create revenue synergies across these businesses, with 3iQ and Aplo cross-selling services to their respective institutional clients, and Next Finance providing staking infrastructure across the group.

The transaction highlights Coincheck Group’s ambition to evolve from a Japan-centric retail exchange into a diversified, global digital asset services provider. For small cap investors, the key questions revolve around execution: Can management successfully integrate these disparate businesses? Will institutional clients embrace the combined platform? And can the company achieve the promised synergies? With 3iQ’s proven track record and Coincheck’s operational expertise, the foundation appears solid. Investors should monitor regulatory approval progress and watch for early signs of cross-selling success as the deal approaches its anticipated Q2 2026 close.

Comstock (LODE) – Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Permitting Milestone

Posted on January 8, 2026January 8, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, January 08, 2026

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Comstock Metals received its Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Air Pollution Control for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.

Closing in on the Written Determination Permit. The Air Quality Permit follows a notification of eligibility for a written determination permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Sustainable Materials Management, which is now through the public notice period. Once the written determination permit is final, the two permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of the recovery facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

AZZ (AZZ) – Third Quarter FY 2026 Results Outpace Expectations

Posted on January 8, 2026January 8, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, January 08, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of sales amounted to 21.4% compared to 22.5% during the third quarter of FY 2025.

Segment results. While Metal Coatings sales were up 15.7% compared to the prior year quarter, Precoat Metals sales were down 1.8%. Metal Coatings delivered higher sales due to increased volume driven by infrastructure-related projects in several end markets. Precoat Metals experienced lower sales due to weaker end markets, including building construction, HVAC, and transportation, partially offset by container. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 30.3% for Metal Coatings and 19.7% for Precoat Metals.

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Bit Digital (BTBT) – Monthly ETH Production

Posted on January 8, 2026January 8, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, January 08, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the Company held approximately 155,227 ETH versus 154,398.7 ETH at the end of November. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,146.0 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company staked an additional 642 ETH during the month. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,263, or about 89% of its total holdings as of December 31st.

Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 389.6 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 3.5%. Based on a closing ETH price of $2,967, as of December 31, 2025, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $460.5 million.

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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – 2025 Review and 2026 Expectations

Posted on January 8, 2026January 8, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, January 08, 2026

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2025 Review. ACCO Brands’ 2025 narrative was dominated by a clear priority: defend profitability and cash generation in a soft demand environment, using restructuring and cost takeout as the primary levers while the top line remained pressured. Across the first three quarters of 2025, demand was weak and uneven globally, and Q3 in particular underscored that as sales came in lower than expected; however, the Company still delivered adjusted earnings in line with its outlook by expanding gross margin and lowering SG&A, demonstrating meaningful operating discipline.

2026 Preview. Looking into 2026, we believe the key question for investors is whether ACCO can convert its 2025 operational progress into a durable and investable story rather than a purely defensive one. The most important variable remains organic revenue stabilization: the Company has demonstrated the ability to protect earnings despite sales declines, but the market will require evidence that declines are moderating, particularly in the Americas, and that channel inventories and promotional intensity are improving rather than worsening.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Kuya Silver (KUYAF) – Vertically Integrating its Operation

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wednesday, January 07, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private Placement Financing. Kuya Silver Corporation (OTCQB: KUYAF, CSE: KUYA) announced a brokered private placement pursuant to the listed issuer financing exemption of up to 15.0 million units of the company at a price of C$1.00 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to C$15.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$1.30 per common share for a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.

Use of Proceeds. Kuya intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to advance the company’s Bethania project with the acquisition of and/or development of concentrate processing capacity. Kuya is evaluating several options, each of which is fully permitted and will allow the company to vertically integrate its production capabilities. Funds may also be used to explore the Silver Kings Project in Ontario, discretionary growth capital, and for general corporate purposes.

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First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF) – Transitioning from Exploration to Feasibility

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wednesday, January 07, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Offtake agreement. First Phosphate recently amended an offtake agreement that includes a US$0.53 million upfront pre-payment during the fourth quarter of FY 2026. The funds will be used to advance the Begin-Lamarche project towards a feasibility study and later, production. The prepayment is subject to refund should First Phosphate decide not to pursue a feasibility study or production, neither of which we anticipate. In our view, the prepayment validates downstream interest and reinforces the strategic relevance of the Company’s integrated phosphate platform.

Final tranches of private placement. The Company closed the third and fourth tranches of its oversubscribed non-brokered private placement in December, raising approximately $9.6 million in gross proceeds and bringing total capital raised since June 2022 to approximately $49.7 million. Following recent warrant exercises and the offtake pre-payment, management indicates cash on hand of approximately $24 million, which we believe is sufficient to fund planned activities through 2026 and into 2027.

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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Updating 2025 Estimates

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wednesday, January 07, 2026

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating 2025 estimates. We have lowered our Q4 and FY 2025 EPU estimates to $0.57 and $2.33, respectively, from $0.69 and $2.45. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 568 bitcoins as of September 30. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $114,056 on September 30. We anticipate the value of digital assets in Q4 2025 could decrease by approximately $15.1 million if all bitcoins were held through the fourth quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate.

Looking ahead. While our 2026 and 2027 estimates are unchanged, we think coal supply and demand fundamentals could strengthen going into 2027, which could have a positive impact on pricing. Actions taken by the Trump Administration are expected to support and sustain coal-fired power generation. Electricity demand growth is expected to be driven by industrial growth, electrification, and the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers.

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US Labor Market Shows Continued Weakness as November Job Openings Miss Expectations

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The US labor market’s sluggish trajectory continued in November, with newly released government data revealing a sharper-than-expected decline in job openings and historically weak hiring activity. The figures paint a picture of an economy caught in what economists are calling a “no-hire, no-fire” limbo, where employers remain cautious about expansion while largely avoiding layoffs.

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 7.15 million job openings at the end of November, falling short of the 7.6 million economists had projected. This marks a continuation of the downward trend in available positions, with October’s figures also revised lower from 7.7 million to 7.45 million. The decline was particularly pronounced in accommodation and food services as well as transportation and warehousing, though construction showed some gains.

The timing of these weakness signals is notable, as November also saw the unemployment rate climb to a four-year high of 4.6%. This combination of rising joblessness and declining opportunities suggests the labor market may be losing momentum more rapidly than many forecasters anticipated.

Perhaps most concerning is the collapse in hiring activity. The hiring rate dropped to just 3.2% in November, marking one of the weakest readings since the Great Recession. Only April 2020, during the depths of the pandemic lockdowns, recorded a lower rate at 3.1%. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, characterized the situation bluntly as a “hiring recession,” noting that virtually no jobs have been added outside the healthcare sector since April.

The data reveals an economy where workers and employers alike are playing it safe. While separations held steady at 5.1 million—unchanged from both October and the previous year—the quits rate rose to 2%. This metric, traditionally viewed as a gauge of worker confidence, suggests employees retain some optimism about finding new opportunities, even as hiring activity stalls.

Not all indicators are pointing downward, however. Data from payroll processor ADP showed private employers added 41,000 positions in December, recovering from losses in the previous month. Bank of America’s internal employment analysis echoed this modest improvement, suggesting that the worst of the labor market slowdown may be behind us. The bank’s institute noted that while the “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic persists, there are signs that the deceleration may have stabilized.

As markets await Friday’s official unemployment data for December, the November figures serve as a reminder of the delicate balance facing policymakers. The Federal Reserve must navigate between supporting a weakening labor market and managing inflation concerns, all while employers demonstrate reluctance to commit to significant workforce expansion.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether this represents a temporary soft patch or the beginning of a more sustained period of labor market weakness.

Copper Retreats From Record Highs as Profit-Taking Erases Recent Gains

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After an extraordinary rally that saw copper prices surge more than 40% in 2025, the industrial metal has tumbled from record highs as traders rush to lock in profits from what many analysts are calling an overheated market. The sharp reversal underscores the volatility gripping global commodity markets and raises questions about whether the recent bull run in metals can sustain its momentum.

Copper futures dropped 2.6% to close at $12,899.50 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, part of a broader selloff that saw nickel plunge 3.4% and zinc fall by similar margins. The decline marks a dramatic shift from the frenzied buying that characterized recent weeks, driven largely by speculative capital flooding into China’s domestic metals markets.

The rapid ascent had left many market participants nervous. Ed Meir, an analyst at Marex, noted that the markets are experiencing a broad retreat typical of situations where price movements become oversized. Base metals analysts have been scrambling to justify valuations that climbed faster than underlying fundamentals could support, and the correction appears to be the market’s way of restoring equilibrium.

Copper’s remarkable 40% gain in 2025 represented its strongest annual performance since the recovery year of 2009. The rally was fueled by a perfect storm of supply disruptions at major mines and strategic stockpiling by traders anticipating potential US tariffs on metal imports. This combination of tight supply and precautionary demand pushed prices to levels that, in hindsight, may have been unsustainable in the short term.

Nickel’s trajectory proved even more dramatic. The battery and stainless steel component notched its biggest single-day gain in over three years on Tuesday, surging as much as 10.5% intraday before reaching a fresh 19-month high Wednesday morning. However, the euphoria was short-lived as profit-taking quickly reversed those gains.

The nickel rally had been propelled by genuine supply concerns in top producer Indonesia, where government plans to reduce production and impose punitive fines on miners violating forestry permits threatened to disrupt output significantly. Chinese traders also contributed to the buying frenzy, stocking up ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday when industrial activity traditionally slows.

Yet beneath the speculative fervor lies a more sobering reality. As Fan Jianyuan, an analyst at Mysteel Global, pointed out, the rally was largely driven by financial capital inflows rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics. The nickel market remains in surplus, with years of surging Indonesian production having driven global inventories sharply higher. Evidence of continued oversupply emerged Wednesday when London Metal Exchange stockpiles jumped by the most in six years.

This disconnect between speculative enthusiasm and fundamental realities highlights the challenge facing metals markets. While many traders maintain bullish long-term views on copper and other industrial metals—driven by electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and the green transition—the speed and magnitude of recent price movements have created conditions ripe for volatile corrections.

For investors and industry participants, the lesson is clear: even markets with strong structural tailwinds can experience sharp reversals when prices outpace fundamentals. As the dust settles from this latest selloff, the focus will return to whether underlying demand can justify the elevated price levels that remain despite the recent pullback.

Nvidia’s CES Comments Ignite Breakout Rally in Sandisk Shares

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Sandisk Corp. has emerged as one of the most explosive stocks in the early days of 2026, with a rally that has captured Wall Street’s attention and reshaped expectations for the memory and storage sector. Shares of the company surged as much as 25% on Tuesday, marking their best intraday performance since February and pushing the stock to a fresh record high. The move followed comments from Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang at the CES technology conference, where he underscored the critical — and largely untapped — role of storage in the artificial intelligence boom.

Sandisk’s gains extend far beyond a single trading session. The stock has climbed more than 40% in the first three trading days of the new year and has skyrocketed roughly 1,050% since bottoming out in April 2025. On Tuesday alone, it stood as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, outpacing peers across the memory and storage ecosystem. Western Digital and Seagate Technology also posted double-digit percentage gains, reflecting renewed enthusiasm for companies tied to data storage infrastructure.

At the heart of the rally are Huang’s remarks about what he described as a massive, underserved market. Speaking at CES, the Nvidia CEO said storage represents “a completely unserved market today,” adding that it could become the largest storage market in the world as it evolves to hold the working memory of artificial intelligence systems. His comments reinforced a growing narrative that AI’s next phase will not be limited to compute power alone, but will increasingly depend on fast, scalable, and affordable memory and storage solutions.

Industry fundamentals appear to support that thesis. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jake Silverman, tight supply conditions and rising memory prices are already benefiting digital storage companies. The surge in demand is being driven by both AI training and inferencing, which require enormous volumes of data to be stored, accessed, and processed efficiently. Huang’s CES commentary, Silverman noted, suggests that demand for NAND storage will remain strong across Nvidia-powered systems.

Pricing trends add further fuel to the bullish outlook. Memory prices have been climbing steadily, and reports from Korea Economic Daily indicate that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are seeking to raise server DRAM prices by as much as 60% to 70% in the first quarter compared with the prior quarter. Such increases signal a supply-demand imbalance that could continue to lift margins across the sector.

Wall Street analysts are increasingly framing Sandisk and its peers as central players in the next leg of the AI investment cycle. Bank of America analysts, led by Wamsi Mohan, recently described memory and storage companies as “key beneficiaries” of the push toward AI inferencing and edge computing in 2026. As organizations retain more data for training, analytics, and regulatory compliance, demand for storage is expected to surge. Mohan highlighted expanding use cases across drones, surveillance systems, vehicles, and sports technology as areas of rapid growth.

While the AI narrative has so far been dominated by capital spending on chips and data centers, analysts argue that the focus is beginning to shift. Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, AI inferencing — and the storage required to support it — may dominate the next wave of hardware investment. For Sandisk, that shift has already translated into a historic rally, and investors are betting the momentum is far from over.

Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE) – Hydronidone NDA Planned For 1H26, Meeting Expected Milestone

Posted on January 6, 2026January 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, January 06, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Positive Guidance Received From CDE. Gyre announced that its majority-owned subsidiary in China, Gyre Pharmaceuticals Ltd, has completed pre-NDA discussions with the Chinese Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE). The CDE indicated that the Phase 3 data meets the requirements for approval in chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis, as expected. An NDA submission is planned for 1H26, meeting our expected milestones for the product and the company.

Approval Would Allow Full Commercialization. Under the CDE regulations, the Phase 3 supports Conditional Approval for Hydronidone, allowing full commercialization. As part of the approval, company agrees to conduct a Phase 3c study after commercialization to confirm the effects seen in Phase 3. This is similar to a Phase 4 study in the US. The study design has not be finalized, although we expect similar endpoints for confirmation of the Phase 3 data.

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Nvidia’s Market Dominance Faces Growing Challenges in 2026

Posted on January 6, 2026January 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The world’s most valuable company is entering 2026 on uncertain footing. Nvidia shares have declined roughly 8% since hitting a record on October 29, losing $460 billion in market value over recent months while underperforming the broader S&P 500. The pullback comes as investors question the sustainability of AI spending and whether the chip giant can maintain its stranglehold on the accelerator market.

The decline is striking given Nvidia’s remarkable three-year run, which saw the stock surge more than 1,200% since late 2022 and pushed its market capitalization above $5 trillion at its peak. The company remains the single biggest contributor to the current bull market, accounting for approximately 16% of the S&P 500’s advance since October 2022—more than double Apple’s contribution. Any sustained weakness in Nvidia would reverberate across most equity portfolios.

Competition is intensifying from multiple directions. Advanced Micro Devices has secured major data center contracts with OpenAI and Oracle, with its data center revenue projected to jump about 60% to nearly $26 billion in 2026. More significantly, Nvidia’s largest customers are developing their own chips to circumvent the expense of buying Nvidia’s accelerators, which can exceed $30,000 each. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—collectively representing over 40% of Nvidia’s revenue—are all building internal alternatives.

Google has been working on tensor processing units for over a decade and recently optimized its latest Gemini AI chatbot to run on these proprietary chips. The company announced a chip deal with Anthropic valued in the tens of billions of dollars, and reports suggest Meta is negotiating to rent Google Cloud chips for use in 2027 data centers. This shift toward custom silicon is lifting companies like Broadcom, whose application-specific integrated circuit business has helped vault its market capitalization to $1.6 trillion, surpassing Tesla.

Nvidia’s December licensing deal with startup chipmaker Groq appears to acknowledge the growing demand for specialized, lower-cost alternatives. The company plans to incorporate elements of Groq’s low-latency semiconductor technology into future designs, suggesting even the market leader recognizes it must adapt to changing customer preferences.

Despite these headwinds, Wall Street remains largely bullish. Of the 82 analysts covering Nvidia, 76 maintain buy ratings with only one recommending a sale. The average price target implies a 37% gain over the next year, which would push the company’s valuation above $6 trillion. CEO Jensen Huang declared at CES that demand for Nvidia GPUs is “skyrocketing” as AI models increase by an order of magnitude annually, with the company’s next-generation Rubin chips nearing release.

Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia’s profit margins as competition heats up. The company’s gross margin dipped in fiscal 2026 due to higher costs from ramping up its Blackwell chip series, falling to a projected 71.2% from the mid-70s percentage range in previous years. Management expects margins to recover to around 75% in fiscal 2027, but any shortfall would likely trigger concern on Wall Street.

Interestingly, Nvidia trades at a relatively modest valuation of 25 times forward earnings despite expectations for 57% profit growth on a 53% revenue increase in its next fiscal year. This multiple is lower than most Magnificent Seven stocks except Meta, and cheaper than over a quarter of S&P 500 companies. Some analysts view this as opportunity, arguing the stock is priced as if the AI cycle has already ended.

The AI infrastructure buildout remains massive, with Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta projected to spend over $400 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, much of it directed toward data center equipment. Even as Big Tech develops internal chips, the computing power requirements are so enormous that companies continue purchasing Nvidia’s products. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expect Nvidia’s market share to remain intact for the foreseeable future, though maintaining 90% dominance will clearly be more challenging than before.