slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com, Author at Channelchek

Defense Stocks Back in Focus as Global Tensions Reshape Market Attention

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Rising geopolitical tensions are once again pushing defense and national security companies into the spotlight. As governments around the world increase military spending and prioritize advanced technologies, investors are taking a closer look at defense contractors that sit across the evolving security landscape.

While global conflict headlines often drive short-term market volatility, they can also highlight longer-term structural trends in defense spending. For small- and mid-cap investors, the most interesting opportunities may lie outside the largest prime contractors, among companies focused on emerging technologies, logistics, and next-generation defense systems.

Over the past several years, the defense industry has undergone a meaningful shift. Governments are investing not only in traditional military hardware, but also in autonomous systems, advanced communications, cyber defense, and mission support services. These areas often involve smaller or mid-sized publicly traded companies that provide specialized capabilities within the broader defense ecosystem.

One company frequently cited in discussions around next-generation defense technology is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (NASDAQ: KTOS). The company focuses on advanced technologies including unmanned aerial systems, satellite communications, and high-performance engineering solutions designed for national security applications. Kratos has positioned itself in areas such as affordable drone technology and space communications infrastructure—two segments receiving increasing attention as military strategies evolve toward autonomous and distributed systems.

Another company operating within the defense services ecosystem is V2X Inc. (NYSE: VVX). V2X provides mission-critical logistics, infrastructure, and operational support services to U.S. and allied defense organizations. These services include base operations support, supply chain management, and technology-enabled mission support—functions that are essential for maintaining global military readiness.

While companies like Kratos and V2X operate in different corners of the defense landscape, they illustrate how the sector has broadened beyond traditional weapons manufacturing. Modern defense capabilities rely on a complex network of technology providers, service contractors, and specialized engineering firms that support military operations both domestically and abroad.

Recent geopolitical developments have reinforced the importance of resilient supply chains, rapid deployment capabilities, and advanced surveillance technologies. These priorities are shaping procurement strategies across NATO members and other allied nations, many of which have committed to increasing defense budgets in the coming years.

For investors focused on small- and mid-cap equities, this dynamic creates a broader investable universe within the defense sector. Companies operating in niche areas—such as unmanned systems, military communications, cybersecurity, and logistics support—may benefit from increased demand as governments modernize their defense infrastructure.

At the same time, defense stocks can be influenced by political decisions, budget negotiations, and shifting geopolitical conditions. As a result, investors often evaluate these companies within the context of long-term spending cycles rather than short-term headlines.

The current global environment has underscored how critical defense readiness remains for governments worldwide. For market participants, it has also brought renewed attention to the companies providing the technologies and operational capabilities that underpin modern military strategy.

As geopolitical uncertainty persists, the defense sector is likely to remain an area closely watched by investors tracking global security trends and the companies positioned within this evolving industry.

GDEV (GDEV) – Delivering Strong Cash Flow

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $90.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $15.0 million. While revenue was modestly below our estimate of $99.0 million, adj. EBITDA was in line with our estimate of $15.1 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, the strong adj. EBITDA figure was largely driven by more efficient use of marketing spend, which decreased approximately 25% y-o-y.

Key operating metrics. Bookings and monthly paying users (MPU) decreased by 7% and 10%, respectively, compared with the prior year period, but the decrease was expected as the company is focused on the quality of gameplay and retaining high-quality users. Furthermore, the company’s strategy appears to be paying off, as average bookings per paying user (ABPPU) increased from $102 in Q4’24 to $106 in Q4’25.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

Newsmax (NMAX) – Quarterly Preview: Viewership Trends Appear Positive

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Viewership Milestone. The company announced that more than four million viewers tuned in to its broadcast and streaming platforms for its live coverage of the President’s State of the Union address on February 24. Notably, the Newsmax channel garnered 2.8 million total viewers, with an additional 1.3 million streaming the coverage on Newsmax2. The strong viewership marked a major ratings and digital engagement milestone, reflecting the network’s growing reach across traditional and digital platforms.

Ratings Leadership. The network’s total audience exceeded the combined viewership of Fox Business, CNBC, and NewsNation by 23%. Throughout the evening, the Newsmax team provided continuous updates on Newsmax.com and engaged more than 23 million social media followers. Additionally, a wide range of lawmakers, administration officials, and political commentators joined the network on both broadcast and streaming coverage.

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FreightCar America (RAIL) – Q4′ 2025 Financial Results Below Our Estimates

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4′ 2025 financial results. RAIL generated Q4′ 2025 adj. net income of $4.9 million or $0.16 per share, compared to net income of $8.0 million or $0.21 per share in Q4′ 2024. We had projected net income of $6.1 million or $0.18 per share. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue decreased to 13.4% compared to 15.3% in Q4′ 2024 and our estimate of 14.0%. Revenue declined to $125.6 million compared to $137.7 million during the prior year period, while rail car deliveries increased to 1,172 compared to 1,019 units. We had projected rail car deliveries of 1,557 and revenue of $139.9 million. Adj. EBITDA declined to $10.4 million compared to $13.9 million in Q4′ 2024. We had forecasted adj. EBITDA of $12.5 million.

FY2026 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,000 to 4,500, revenue in the range of $500 to $550 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $41 to $50 million. In FY2025, railcar deliveries were 4,125, revenue amounted to $501.0 million, and adjusted EBITDA totaled $44.8 million. FY2026 guidance is below our current 2026 estimates. Following relatively soft industry orders during the fourth quarter of 2025, we think management is taking a conservative view based on an increasingly uncertain economic outlook and an EOY 2025 backlog of 1,926 units valued at $137.5 million. Moreover, 2026 adj. EBITDA guidance reflects facility lease expenses recorded in cost of goods sold instead of previously classified within interest expense. On a lease-adjusted basis, 2025 adj. EBITDA was $41.2 million.

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Ackman Returns to IPO Market With Ambitious Pershing Square Offering

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is once again turning to public markets to expand his investment platform, unveiling plans for a combined offering that could raise as much as $10 billion. The deal would bring a new closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA Ltd., to the New York Stock Exchange while also giving investors equity exposure to Pershing Square Inc., the hedge fund management firm behind the strategy.

The structure of the proposed IPO is designed to give investors exposure to both the investment vehicle and the management company. Under the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, investors who purchase shares in the Pershing Square USA closed-end fund will also receive shares in Pershing Square Inc. For every 100 shares purchased in the fund at $50 per share, investors will receive 20 shares in the management company at no additional cost.

The combined offering aims to raise between $5 billion and $10 billion, positioning it as one of the more notable capital markets transactions of the year. If successful, the deal would further expand Pershing Square’s access to permanent capital and broaden its base of public-market investors.

Pershing Square has built its reputation around concentrated investments in a limited number of companies, often paired with activist engagement. The firm currently manages approximately $30.7 billion in assets, with about $20.7 billion representing fee-paying capital as of the end of 2025.

The IPO also reflects Ackman’s longer-term vision of creating a publicly traded investment platform similar in structure to Berkshire Hathaway, allowing investors to participate in the firm’s long-term investment strategy through publicly listed securities.

The strategy arrives at a time of heightened market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and shifting global economic conditions. For investment firms that rely on long-term value-oriented strategies, volatile markets can create opportunities to acquire companies at lower valuations.

Pershing Square USA is expected to focus on acquiring significant stakes in a relatively small group of businesses, continuing the firm’s long-standing investment philosophy of concentrated positions. The firm’s core funds have historically held large stakes in companies such as Alphabet, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and Brookfield.

Part of the capital being raised in the offering will come from a previously secured private placement totaling roughly $2.8 billion. Those funds were committed by institutional investors including family offices, pension funds, and insurance companies. Participants in the private placement are expected to receive additional shares in the management company compared to public investors.

Once the transaction is completed, Pershing Square Inc. and Pershing Square USA are expected to trade as separate publicly listed entities. The closed-end fund will list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol PSUS, while the asset management company is expected to trade under the ticker PS.

Unlike traditional mutual funds, closed-end funds issue a fixed number of shares that trade on an exchange. Because of this structure, the market price of the shares can trade at a premium or discount to the value of the underlying portfolio holdings.

Pershing Square already operates a similar structure through Pershing Square Holdings Ltd., its London-listed closed-end fund, which manages more than $17 billion in assets but currently trades at a discount to its net asset value.

Major investment banks including Citigroup, UBS, Bank of America, Jefferies, and Wells Fargo are leading the underwriting for the IPO.

The offering represents Ackman’s latest effort to expand Pershing Square’s reach in public markets while building a larger permanent capital base to support its long-term investment strategy.

Oil Spike Sends Airline Stocks Lower as Fuel Costs Surge

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Airline stocks moved sharply lower Monday as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, raising concerns about rising jet fuel costs and pressure on industry profitability.

Shares of major U.S. carriers fell after crude oil briefly climbed above $110 per barrel, the highest level since 2022. The move followed escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and United Airlines all declined in early trading before trimming some losses. Domestic-focused carriers including Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways, and Alaska Air Group also traded lower as investors weighed the financial impact of higher fuel prices.

Fuel represents one of the largest operating expenses for airlines, typically accounting for roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of total costs. When oil prices climb quickly, airlines often face immediate margin pressure, particularly if ticket prices cannot be adjusted quickly enough to offset the increase.

Jet fuel prices have climbed significantly in recent weeks, rising by as much as $1.75 per gallon. At those levels, the largest U.S. airlines could see quarterly fuel expenses increase by roughly $1.5 billion each if elevated prices persist. Across the three largest carriers, the additional costs could approach $5 billion.

Higher fuel costs often translate into higher ticket prices as airlines attempt to protect margins. Carriers may adjust fares, reduce promotional pricing, or alter route capacity in response to sustained increases in fuel expenses.

The current price spike also highlights the industry’s increased exposure to energy market volatility. Many airlines previously used fuel hedging strategies to limit the impact of oil price swings. Over the past decade, however, most carriers have moved away from large-scale hedging programs after experiencing losses during periods of falling oil prices. Southwest Airlines, long known for its fuel hedging approach, ended its program in 2025.

In addition to rising energy costs, airlines are facing operational disruptions tied to the conflict. Thousands of flights have been grounded globally as airlines reroute aircraft away from affected airspace, leaving travelers stranded and adding complexity to airline scheduling.

European airline stocks also declined amid the developments. Lufthansa shares dropped roughly 5%, while International Consolidated Airlines Group, the parent company of British Airways and Aer Lingus, fell about 3%. Air France-KLM also moved lower during the session.

The latest selloff adds to a difficult year for airline equities. Shares of Delta, American, and United are down roughly 20% to 30% year to date. Domestic carriers such as JetBlue, Southwest, and Alaska Air have also experienced steep declines in recent weeks.

For investors, the move underscores how closely airline performance remains tied to global energy markets. Even with steady travel demand, sudden spikes in oil prices can quickly reshape the profitability outlook for carriers.

If crude oil remains elevated, airlines may continue adjusting pricing strategies and operating plans as they navigate the industry’s most volatile cost variable.

Oil Breaks $100 as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Supply

Posted on March 10, 2026March 10, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Global oil markets have entered a new period of volatility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push crude prices sharply higher. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on Monday, briefly nearing $120 before easing, as disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz threaten one of the world’s most critical energy supply routes.

The price spike follows escalating military conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow maritime corridor that typically carries about one-fifth of global oil shipments — has effectively halted most tanker traffic amid security threats and heightened military activity. With oil unable to move freely from the region, supply constraints are rapidly tightening global markets.

Producers across the Middle East are already responding to the bottleneck. Saudi Arabia has begun cutting production as storage facilities fill up due to limited export capacity. Neighboring producers including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq have taken similar steps, reducing output as crude inventories accumulate while export routes remain restricted.

Analysts warn the supply impact could intensify if the disruption continues. JPMorgan estimates Middle Eastern production shut-ins could exceed four million barrels per day within weeks if the closure persists. The region accounts for roughly one-third of global oil output, making any sustained disruption highly significant for energy markets.

While producers attempt to redirect shipments through alternative routes, options remain limited. Saudi Arabia has increased shipments through pipelines to its Red Sea port of Yanbu, but the infrastructure cannot fully replace volumes normally transported through Hormuz.

The resulting supply uncertainty has sent shockwaves across energy markets. Diesel prices have surged alongside crude, with European gasoil futures climbing above $170 per barrel. Several governments are already weighing intervention measures. China has reportedly instructed major refiners to suspend gasoline and diesel exports, while South Korea is reviewing whether to implement an oil price cap for the first time in three decades.

Consumers are beginning to feel the impact. In the United States, gasoline prices have climbed nearly $0.50 per gallon in just one week, reaching a national average of roughly $3.47 per gallon, according to AAA. Analysts estimate prices could approach $4 per gallon within the next month if crude oil remains elevated.

The relationship between crude and retail fuel costs is direct. Industry estimates suggest every $10 increase in oil prices typically adds about $0.25 per gallon at the pump. With crude rising more than $20 in recent days, the upward pressure on gasoline prices is already visible.

Diesel costs are climbing even faster, with national averages approaching $4.66 per gallon. Because diesel powers the majority of freight transportation in the U.S., higher fuel prices could ripple through the broader economy by increasing the cost of moving goods. That dynamic often translates into higher prices for groceries, clothing, and construction materials.

Economists are also warning that the surge in energy prices could complicate the broader economic outlook. Rising fuel costs combined with slowing growth indicators have revived concerns about stagflation — a scenario where inflation accelerates even as economic activity weakens.

For now, markets remain focused on the duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The longer shipping remains constrained, the more global inventories may tighten, potentially forcing prices higher until demand adjusts or supply routes reopen.

Europe-US Cross-Border Deals

Posted on March 9, 2026March 9, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Welcome to a multi-part article series authored by leading cross-border M&A professionals from CBIZ, Greenberg Traurig LLP, Noble Capital Markets, and Pathfinder Advisors LLC. This series provides a comprehensive guide for middle-market and larger European companies and investors seeking strategic acquisitions in the U.S. across the manufacturing, distribution, logistics, business services, and retail sectors. It will illuminate the compelling market dynamics, operational advantages, and strategic imperatives driving these transatlantic deals now, while also offering practical insights on navigating the complexities of U.S. market entry, robust financial and operational due diligence, talent integration, and regulatory considerations. The series aims to equip company owners, corporate development executives, family offices, and private equity professionals with the knowledge to unlock significant value and establish a resilient U.S. presence.

In an era defined by rapid economic shifts and evolving global dynamics, European enterprises may now have unprecedented opportunities to look across the Atlantic for strategic growth opportunities. The U.S. market, with its vast scale and inherent resilience, could present a compelling landscape for inbound M&A.

This first article in our series explores why the current climate favors European acquirers and how strategic U.S. acquisitions could unlock significant value and establish a robust, resilient long-term presence.

Capitalizing on Change: Why Now is the Right Time For European Enterprises to Acquire U.S. Companies

Article 2:

Expanding Your Footprint: Strategic Opportunities in U.S. Manufacturing, Distribution & Logistics

This article delves into the specific operational and technological advantages awaiting European acquirers in U.S. manufacturing, distribution, and logistics. Acquiring existing U.S. assets in these sectors provides a potent pathway to not only immediate market entry but also the creation of a more resilient, efficient, and technologically advanced global enterprise.

Article 3:

Seizing the U.S. Edge – Strategic M&A for European Industrial & Commercial Leaders

As European manufacturing and logistics firms solidify their North American foundations, a parallel wave of strategic acquisition is transforming the U.S. service and retail landscape. For the European acquirer, the U.S. “Service Economy” represents more than just a massive consumer base; it is a gateway to specialized talent pools, cutting-edge digital platforms, and a resilient commercial ecosystem that can de-risk a global portfolio.

Navigating this transition from “Industrial Footprint” to “Commercial Dominance” requires a nuanced understanding of the U.S. consumer and the specialized expertise that defines American business services.

Information Services Group (III) – AI Demand Drives Solid Results

Posted on March 9, 2026March 9, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, March 09, 2026

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q425. Operating performance in 4Q25 was solid and came in at the upper end of management’s guidance. Revenue came in at $61.2 million, up 6% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA grew 24% to $8.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 189 basis points to 13.2%. ISG reported GAAP net income of $2.6 million, or EPS of $0.05/sh, compared to $3.0 million, or EPS of $0.06/sh, last year, which included a $2.3 million gain from the sale of the automation unit. Adjusted EPS was $0.08 versus $0.06 last year.

AI and Recurring Revenue. Management noted AI-related activities represented nearly 35% of quarterly revenue, up from approximately 10% a year ago. For the full year, AI-related revenue accounted for nearly 30% of total revenue, roughly three times last year’s proportion. Recurring revenue totaled $112 million, representing 46% of annual revenue, while recurring revenues grew 13% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. We expect both AI-related and recurring revenue to increase going forward.

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Bit Digital (BTBT) – February Ethereum Metrics

Posted on March 9, 2026March 9, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, March 09, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of February 2026. As of month end, the Company held approximately 155,434 ETH versus 155,239 ETH at the end of January. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,283 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,269, or about 89% of its total holdings as of February 28th.

Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 314 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 2.7%. Based on a closing ETH price of $1,965, as of February 28, 2026, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $305.4 million.

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Weak Jobs Report and Oil Shock Leave Fed in Policy Limbo

Posted on March 9, 2026March 9, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve faces a complicated policy backdrop after a surprisingly weak February jobs report collided with rising oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflicting signals highlight the challenge policymakers face as they balance slowing labor market momentum with renewed inflation risks.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January. Economists had expected modest job growth, making the decline a notable miss that suggests hiring momentum may be softening.

Despite the negative headline figure, policymakers appear unlikely to move quickly toward rate cuts. Higher oil prices linked to the conflict involving Iran could feed into broader inflation pressures, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the current environment presents risks on both sides of the economic outlook. Weak labor data could argue for easing policy, but persistent energy price increases could make inflation more difficult to contain.

Some economists believe February’s employment figures were distorted by temporary factors. Healthcare payrolls, one of the most consistent sources of job growth in recent years, were affected by a large Kaiser Permanente worker strike that temporarily removed roughly 30,000 employees from payroll counts. Those positions are widely expected to return in March once the strike activity ends.

Severe winter storms across parts of the country also likely disrupted hiring and payroll reporting during the survey period, potentially exaggerating the weakness in the data.

Even with those temporary disruptions, revisions to prior months suggest hiring momentum had already been slowing. Employment figures for December and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000 jobs, reinforcing the view that labor market growth has cooled compared with the stronger pace seen through much of 2024 and early 2025.

Recent employment gains have also fallen below what economists consider the break-even level needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. With slower population growth tied to declining birth rates and tighter immigration policies, that break-even threshold is now estimated around 30,000 jobs per month, significantly lower than historical levels.

At the same time, structural changes may be shaping hiring behavior across industries. Demographic shifts are gradually reducing labor force participation as older workers retire, while many companies are reassessing workforce needs as artificial intelligence and automation expand into more job functions.

Employers in some sectors appear to be slowing hiring decisions while evaluating how new technologies could fill skill gaps or improve productivity.

These dynamics leave the Federal Reserve navigating a narrow path. A sustained deterioration in labor market conditions could strengthen the case for rate cuts, but rising energy prices could revive inflation concerns just as policymakers believed price pressures were easing.

For now, the central bank may prefer to remain patient and wait for additional economic data before adjusting interest rates.

The February report underscores how quickly the economic narrative can shift. With labor market trends softening, geopolitical tensions influencing energy prices, and structural changes reshaping employment patterns, the Fed may remain in a holding pattern as it evaluates the evolving risks to growth and inflation.

Jobs Report Shock: U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February as Unemployment Ticks Higher

Posted on March 6, 2026March 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. labor market delivered an unpleasant surprise in February.

According to new Labor Department data released Friday, the economy lost 92,000 jobs, sharply missing economists’ expectations for a 55,000-job gain. The report also pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.4%, adding to concerns that the early-year hiring rebound may be losing momentum.

For investors and policymakers watching closely, the data suggests the labor market may be entering a softer phase after months of uneven job growth.

A Sudden Shift in the Hiring Trend

February’s decline stands in stark contrast to January’s previously reported 130,000 payroll increase, which had raised hopes that hiring was stabilizing. However, revisions to prior months painted a weaker picture.

January’s gains were revised down by 4,000 jobs, while December’s data was adjusted from a 48,000 increase to a loss of 17,000 positions. Combined, those revisions removed 69,000 jobs from prior employment estimates.

Taken together with February’s decline, the labor market appears significantly weaker than many economists expected at the start of 2026.

Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, described the data bluntly on social media, calling the release an “ugly report.”

The combination of falling payrolls and rising unemployment reinforced concerns that labor demand may be cooling across multiple sectors.

Long-Term Unemployment Edges Higher

Another notable signal from the report was the rise in long-term unemployment.

The share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or longer climbed to 25.3% of total unemployed workers, suggesting that some displaced workers are taking longer to reenter the workforce.

While still well below levels seen during major recessions, the increase may indicate early stress in certain parts of the job market.

Labor economists often watch this metric closely because rising long-term unemployment can signal a more persistent slowdown in hiring.

Healthcare Disruptions Skew the Numbers

One key factor behind February’s weak headline number was disruption in the healthcare sector.

Healthcare payrolls fell by 28,000 jobs, largely due to strike activity. A major labor dispute involving 31,000 Kaiser Permanente healthcare workers in California and Hawaii temporarily removed employees from payroll counts during the survey period.

Healthcare and social assistance have been among the most reliable sources of job creation in recent years, making the decline especially notable.

Without the strike-related losses, February’s employment picture may have looked somewhat stronger.

A Narrow Engine for Job Growth

Even with the healthcare setback, social assistance jobs—such as home health and personal care aides—rose by 9,000 positions, representing one of the few areas of expansion in the report.

The data highlights how concentrated job growth has become in recent years. Healthcare and social services have carried much of the employment expansion while other sectors remain more uneven.

For markets, the report could carry implications for Federal Reserve policy expectations, as investors assess whether cooling labor conditions might influence interest-rate decisions later this year.

While a single report does not define a broader trend, February’s numbers underscore how fragile the labor market recovery may be heading into the spring.

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Pembina Assets Shine, Disciplined Outlook

Posted on March 6, 2026March 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, March 06, 2026

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2025 financial results. InPlay Oil reported full-year 2025 adjusted funds flow (AFF) of C$114.4 million, or C$4.68 per share, above our estimate of C$112.9 million, or C$4.58 per share. Revenue for the year totaled C$291.4 million, ahead of our C$290.6 million forecast, as stronger Q4 production of 19,589 boe/d exceeded our estimate of 19,419 boe/d, in addition to stronger than expected AECO pricing. Full-year production averaged 17,043 boe/d, slightly above our 17,000 boe/d estimate.

Updated 2026 estimates. In the first quarter of 2026, we expect now revenues of C$79.9 million, AFF of C$27.4 million, and AFF per share of C$0.98, compared to prior estimates of C$79.0 million, C$26.6 million, and C$0.95, respectively. For the full-year 2026, we now estimate revenues of C$340.1 million, AFF of C$126.7 million, and AFF per share of C$4.53, up from C$340.1 million, C$125.2 million, and C$4.45. We are maintaining our production estimate of 18,605 boe/d in the first quarter and 18,900 boe/d for the year. These estimates are reflective of slightly higher commodity pricing.

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