Korsana Biosciences Emerges from Cyclerion Merger with $380 Million and a Next-Generation Shot at Alzheimer’s

A small-cap reverse merger is giving birth to one of the better-funded Alzheimer’s plays to hit the public markets in recent memory. Cyclerion Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CYCN) and privately-held Korsana Biosciences announced a definitive all-stock merger agreement that will effectively hand the Nasdaq listing to Korsana, with the combined company rebranding as Korsana Biosciences and trading under the new ticker “KRSA.”

The deal comes packaged with serious capital behind it. Concurrent with the merger, Korsana secured approximately $380 million in a heavily oversubscribed private financing round led by Fairmount and Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners, with participation from a deep bench of institutional names including General Atlantic, Wellington Management, RA Capital Management, RTW Investments, and J.P. Morgan Life Sciences Private Capital, among others. That kind of syndicate doesn’t assemble around a science project — it assembles around conviction.

The combined company’s cash position at closing is expected to fund operations into 2029, providing runway through multiple critical clinical milestones.

The Science Behind the Capital

Korsana’s lead program, KRSA-028, is a next-generation shuttled monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid beta for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease — the same mechanism that underpins approved therapies like lecanemab and donanemab, but engineered to address their most significant limitations.

The differentiation lies in Korsana’s proprietary Therapeutic Targeting platform, known as THETA™. The platform incorporates clinically validated transferrin receptor (TfR1) and Fc engineering designed to dramatically improve brain delivery — getting more drug where it needs to go. KRSA-028 was specifically designed to increase amyloid plaque clearance while reducing the rate of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA), a safety concern that has complicated the commercial rollout of first-generation anti-amyloid therapies. It also targets a low-volume subcutaneous administration route, a meaningful convenience advantage over current IV-infusion dependent treatments.

Korsana is the seventh company to launch with assets discovered through Paragon Therapeutics, a track record that adds credibility to the platform’s pedigree.

Key Milestones on the Horizon

The $380 million in financing is structured to carry Korsana through two pivotal data readouts: Phase 1 healthy volunteer data from KRSA-028 expected in mid-2027, and interim proof-of-concept data measuring amyloid plaque clearance in Alzheimer’s patients expected by the end of 2027. If those readouts deliver, the story accelerates significantly.

The Mechanics of the Deal

Under the merger terms, existing Cyclerion shareholders will own approximately 1.5% of the combined company, with Korsana stockholders — inclusive of the private placement participants — holding the remaining 98.5%. That’s a near-total reset of the cap table, which is standard for this type of reverse merger structure where the private company is clearly the operating entity driving the deal.

The transaction has been approved by both boards and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to shareholder approvals and customary regulatory conditions including HSR clearance.

Wedbush Securities acted as exclusive strategic financial advisor to Korsana. Jefferies, TD Cowen, Stifel, and UBS served as placement agents. Ropes & Gray advised Cyclerion.

For small and microcap investors, the Korsana story is worth tracking closely. A well-capitalized, differentiated Alzheimer’s platform with a clear clinical timeline and institutional backing is exactly the kind of setup that can move quickly once data starts flowing.

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD) – Cadrenal Reports FY2025 With Clinical Progress


Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Progress On CAD-1005 Reported With FY2025 Results. Cadrenal reported a loss for 4Q25 of $3.0 million or $(1.42) per share and a FY2025 loss of $13.2 million or $(6.64) per share. Importantly, it recently held its End-Of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA to receive guidance for the planned Phase 3 trial for CAD-1005 in HIT (heparin-induced thrombocytopenia). The company had cash and equivalents of $4.0 million on December 31, 2025.

Lead Indication Reported Phase 2 Data. As discussed in our Research Note on February 25, Cadrenal reported results from its Phase 2 study of CAD-1005 in HIT. The trial was designed to show CAD-1005 improved platelet recovery and tested platelet count recovery as a biomarker for thrombosis and outcome. The data did not show a correlation between platelet count normalization and thrombotic events, but did show an important reduction in thrombotic events exceeding 25% in the CAD-1005 treatment arm compared with placebo.


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NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN) – NeuroSense Reports FY2025 With Outlook For The Year


Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

FY2025 Reported With PrimeC Progress Review. NeuroSense reported a loss for FY2025 of $11.1 million or $(0.44) per share. The company gave updates to its ongoing PrimeC development programs and expected milestones for the coming year in ALS and Alzheimer’s disease. As of December 31, 2025, NeuroSense had cash of approximately $0.2 million.

Phase 3 In ALS Has Received FDA Clearance. During November 2025, NeuroSense received FDA clearance to initiate the Phase 3 trial in ALS. The company has completed commercial-scale manufacturing and continues to prepare for the Phase 3 trial, which we expect to begin later in FY2026.


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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – MAIA Reports Two-Year Survival Data At Medical Conference


Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Data Presented Shows Long-Term Survival. MAIA presented data from its Phase 2 THIO-101 trial at the European Lung Cancer Congress 2026 (ELCC) held recently in Copenhagen, Denmark. The presentation included data from patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who had relapsed after treatment with standard chemotherapy. Data from 8 patients showed survival exceeding 2 years and greatly exceeded the expected survival for patients at their stage of disease.

Phase 2 Trial Design. THIO-101 was designed in three stages. Part A was basic safety, and Part B was a dose-finding stage. These two stages treated a total of 79 patients. The ongoing Part C is an expansion stage enrolling up to 48 participants in Asia and Europe. The patients are treated with ateganosine (aka THIO) followed by cemiplimab (Libtayo, from Regeneron). 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF) – Firing on All Cylinders


Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Expanded infill drill program. First Phosphate completed an expanded infill drill program, totaling approximately 40,000 meters, that was launched in October at its Begin-Lamarche property in Saguenay-Lac-St. Jean, Quebec. The drilling program, which was expanded from 30,000 meters of drilling, confirmed continuity of phosphate mineralization across the existing resource horizon and discovered two new mineralized intersects in the Northern and Southern zones.

Updated geological model. The incremental 10,000 meters of drilling was designed to better understand the new intersects and test mineralization at depth in areas across the Northern and Southern zones. The company is processing the full set of drill results from its original and expanded drill program with the goal of updating the geological model in the coming weeks.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GoHealth (GOCO) – Resetting the Model for Sustainable Growth


Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results weaker than expected. Full year 2025 revenue of $361.9 million was well below our $434.2 million estimate. Management emphasized that the Medicare Advantage market remains in a structural reset heading into 2026, with carriers prioritizing retention, member quality, margin integrity, and disciplined unit economics over enrollment growth. Full year 2025 adj. EBITDA loss estimate of $35.1 million was more than our loss estimate of $29.6 million. 

Strategic reset. The company has deliberately reduced Medicare Advantage enrollments where first-renewal economics were unattractive, prioritizing long-term profitability and appropriate consumer plan fit. At the same time, it has maintained leadership in Special Needs Plans (SNP), benefiting from carrier focus on high-need, high-retention populations. 


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The GLP-1 Race Goes Oral: FDA Approves Lilly’s Foundayo, Reshaping the Obesity Market and the Competitive Landscape

The FDA approved Eli Lilly’s (NYSE: LLY) Foundayo (orforglipron) today, a once-daily oral GLP-1 receptor agonist for adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related medical conditions. The approval marks a pivotal shift in one of the fastest-growing drug categories in history — and for small and microcap investors, the ripple effects are worth paying close attention to.

Foundayo joins Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill as the only two oral GLP-1 medications with FDA approval, but Lilly is positioning its drug as the more flexible option. Unlike the Wegovy pill, which must be taken in the morning 30 minutes before eating or drinking, Foundayo can be taken at any time of day and without restrictions on food and water.

It’s worth noting that Lilly is having one of the busiest 24-hour stretches in recent memory. Yesterday, the company announced a definitive agreement to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $47.00 per share — a deal valued at approximately $7.8 billion — to bolster its neuroscience pipeline in sleep-wake disorders. [Related: Eli Lilly Banks $6.3 Billion on Sleep Science with Centessa Pharmaceuticals Acquisition] Today’s FDA approval underscores just how aggressively Lilly is moving across multiple therapeutic fronts simultaneously.

The Numbers Behind the Pill

In the ATTAIN-1 trial, patients receiving the highest dose who remained on treatment lost a mean of 27.3 pounds (12.4%) compared with 2.2 pounds (0.9%) among those receiving placebo. That’s meaningfully below the 20%+ weight loss seen with injectable GLP-1s like Zepbound, but Lilly isn’t positioning this as a replacement — it’s positioning it as an on-ramp.

Analysts estimate Foundayo sales will reach $14.79 billion by 2030, compared to expectations of $24.68 billion for Zepbound. On pricing, eligible people with commercial insurance may pay as little as $25 per month, self-pay patients can access it starting at $149 per month, and eligible Medicare Part D patients may access it for $50 per month beginning July 1, 2026.

The FDA reviewed the Foundayo application in just 50 days under a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher pilot program, making it the fastest approval of a new molecular entity since 2002. That regulatory speed is its own headline.

What This Means for the Broader Market

The oral GLP-1 approval isn’t just a Lilly story — it’s a market structure story. Injectable GLP-1s built a massive but friction-filled market: cold storage requirements, weekly injection routines, and access barriers kept a significant portion of eligible patients on the sidelines. Fewer than 1 in 10 people who could benefit from a GLP-1 are currently taking one. A pill changes that calculus dramatically, and a larger addressable patient pool creates downstream opportunities across the healthcare ecosystem.

For smaller companies building in adjacent spaces — weight management technology platforms, metabolic disease diagnostics, complementary therapeutics — this approval accelerates the market they’re betting on. Novo Nordisk’s early data already suggests the pill is expanding the obesity treatment market rather than simply cannibalizing injectable demand, with more than 600,000 prescriptions for the Wegovy pill recorded in March alone.

The Competitive Pressure Is Real

Lilly’s approval also puts pressure on every company in the obesity space without an oral option. Novo has a head start on the pill market but carries the food and water restriction disadvantage. Other GLP-1 developers — many of them smaller biotechs — now face an even higher innovation bar. The era of “we have a GLP-1” being sufficient is over. Differentiation by mechanism, convenience, side effect profile, or patient population is now the only viable path to relevance.

Lilly expects Foundayo approval in more than 40 countries over the next year and has invested more than $55 billion in manufacturing since 2020 to support global scale — a moat that smaller competitors cannot easily replicate, making niche differentiation even more critical for emerging players.

The oral GLP-1 market is now officially open. The question for small and microcap investors is which companies are building the infrastructure, tools, and therapies that benefit from a world where obesity treatment becomes a daily pill.

Biogen Banks $5.6 Billion on Apellis as Big Pharma M&A Appetite for Biotech Heats Up

Biogen (Nasdaq: BIIB) is making its most consequential portfolio move in years, announcing a definitive agreement to acquire Apellis Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: APLS) for $41.00 per share in cash — an upfront equity consideration of approximately $5.6 billion — plus a contingent value right (CVR) tied to future sales milestones for its flagship eye disease therapy. The deal closed out March with a statement: big pharma is hungry, and specialty biotech is on the menu.

The transaction carries an 86% premium to Apellis’ 90-day volume-weighted average stock price and a 35% premium to its 52-week high. It is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.

What Biogen Is Getting

At the center of the deal are two commercialized complement-targeting therapies: SYFOVRE® (pegcetacoplan injection), approved for geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to age-related macular degeneration, and EMPAVELI® (pegcetacoplan), approved across three rare immune-mediated conditions — C3 glomerulopathy (C3G), primary IC-MPGN, and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH).

Together, the two drugs generated $689 million in combined net product revenue in 2025, with growth expected in the mid-to-high teens annually through at least 2028. For a company navigating revenue headwinds from its legacy MS portfolio, that near-term visibility is exactly what Biogen needed.

SYFOVRE holds particular strategic weight as the first-ever approved therapy for geographic atrophy — a progressive retinal disease affecting more than five million people globally. Long-term efficacy data shows the drug can delay GA lesion progression by approximately 1.5 years in key patient populations, giving the asset durable commercial runway. The GA space is one that smaller innovators are also actively pursuing. Ocugen (Nasdaq: OCGN), is developing a gene therapy approach targeting inherited retinal diseases — the kind of differentiated, mechanism-driven science that has increasingly attracted large-cap attention.

The Nephrology Angle

Beyond the immediate revenue story, the strategic rationale runs deeper into kidney disease. Apellis brings an established nephrology sales infrastructure that Biogen intends to leverage for felzartamab, its Phase 3 kidney disease candidate with a first trial readout expected in the first half of 2027.

EMPAVELI’s rare kidney disease approvals — including the only FDA-approved treatment for pediatric patients with C3G and the first approval for post-transplant C3G recurrence — underscore how defensible rare nephrology positions can be. Two other emerging growth companies are staking ground in adjacent kidney disease spaces: Unicycive Therapeutics (Nasdaq: UNCY), developing oxylanthanum carbonate for hyperphosphatemia in chronic kidney disease patients, and Eledon Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ELDN), advancing therapies focused on reducing kidney transplant rejection. The Biogen-Apellis deal reinforces that nephrology is becoming a high-value destination for large-cap dealmaking.

A Market Signal Worth Noting

The Apellis acquisition didn’t land in a vacuum. Earlier today, Eli Lilly announced a separate agreement to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $47.00 per share — a deal valued at approximately $7.8 billion including contingent payments — to bolster its neuroscience pipeline in sleep-wake disorders. Two major biotech acquisitions announced on the same day signals something broader: pharmaceutical companies with strong balance sheets are actively scanning for de-risked, commercially validated or late-stage assets, and they’re willing to pay premium prices to get them.

For investors tracking small and microcap biotech, that backdrop matters. Companies building real clinical differentiation in immunology, nephrology, and ophthalmology are operating in exactly the spaces that large pharma is now paying billions to enter.

CVR Structure and Financial Outlook

The CVR entitles Apellis shareholders to two potential payments of $2 per share, contingent on SYFOVRE hitting $1.5 billion and $2 billion in annual global net sales between 2027 and 2030. Biogen expects the deal to be increasingly accretive to non-GAAP diluted EPS starting in 2027, with full de-leveraging targeted by end of 2027.

Eli Lilly Invests $6.3 Billion on Sleep Science with Centessa Pharmaceuticals Acquisition

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is making one of its boldest neuroscience moves yet, announcing a definitive agreement to acquire clinical-stage biotech Centessa Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CNTA) in a deal valued at up to $47.00 per share — representing a total potential equity value approaching $7.8 billion when contingent payments are included.

The upfront cash consideration of $38.00 per share reflects an aggregate equity value of approximately $6.3 billion and carries a 40.5% premium to Centessa’s 30-day volume-weighted average trading price ended March 30, 2026. Shareholders will also receive one non-transferable contingent value right (CVR) worth up to an additional $9.00 per share, tied to three FDA approval milestones for Centessa’s lead drug candidates.

What Lilly Is Really Buying

The deal is fundamentally about orexin receptor 2 (OX2R) science — a mechanism that sits at the neurobiological center of how the brain regulates the sleep-wake cycle. Centessa has spent years building what it believes is a potential best-in-class pipeline of OX2R agonists, with its lead candidate cleminorexton (formerly ORX750) having already shown promising Phase 2a clinical data across three major sleep disorders: narcolepsy type 1, narcolepsy type 2, and idiopathic hypersomnia.

Beyond cleminorexton, Centessa’s portfolio includes additional clinical and preclinical-stage assets targeting neurological, neurodegenerative, and neuropsychiatric indications — giving Lilly a broader platform than a single drug acquisition would suggest.

The CVR Structure

The contingent value rights break down as follows: $2.00 per CVR upon FDA approval of cleminorexton or ORX142 for narcolepsy type 2 before the fifth anniversary of close; $5.00 per CVR upon FDA approval for idiopathic hypersomnia within the same window; and $2.00 per CVR upon the first FDA approval of either candidate for any indication before January 1, 2030.

CVR structures are increasingly common in biopharma M&A as a tool to bridge valuation gaps between buyers and sellers when clinical outcomes remain uncertain. For Centessa shareholders, the arrangement means meaningful upside if the pipeline delivers — but no guarantees.

Strategic Fit and Timing

The acquisition lands at a moment when sleep disorder therapeutics are gaining serious commercial momentum. The emergence of orexin-based therapies — like Idorsia’s daridorexant and Eisai and Biogen’s lemborexant — has validated the mechanism on the wake-promotion side of the equation. Centessa’s OX2R agonist approach works in the opposite direction, promoting wakefulness rather than suppressing it, which addresses a different and underserved patient population.

For Lilly, a company already navigating massive commercial demands from its GLP-1 and Alzheimer’s franchises, adding a differentiated neuroscience platform signals a commitment to diversifying its long-range pipeline.

The transaction is structured as a scheme of arrangement under English and Welsh law and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, pending Centessa shareholder approval, High Court sanction, and customary regulatory clearances. Approximately 24.1% of Centessa’s outstanding shares are already locked up through voting and support agreements signed by major investors including Medicxi Ventures, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic.

Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY) – FY2025 Loss Reported With OLC PDUFA Data Approaching


Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NDA Sumisssion Was Accepted In January. Unicycive reported loss for FYQ25 of $26.6 million or $(1.67) per share. Importantly, the resubmission of the NDA for oxylanthanum calcium (OLC), its phosphate binder for controlling high phosphate levels in renal dialysis patients, was accepted for filing by the FDA. The PDUFA data is June 19, 2026. Cash on December 31, 2026 was $54.9 million, which we estimate is sufficient to last through product launch and the first quarter of OLC sales.

We Believe Previous Issues Have Been Settled. The NDA was submitted in December 2025 and accepted for filing in January. FDA acceptance and notification of the PDUFA date signifies that the application is complete for review. There were no questions about the third-party manufacturing issue that stopped the review process in June 2025. We believe the corrective actions have addressed the problem, allowing for marketing approval by June 2026.


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Iran’s Fifth Week: The Domino That Could Send Oil Prices Into Uncharted Territory

Oil markets opened the week in full crisis mode — and two developments over the weekend made clear that this conflict is far from finding a ceiling.

Brent crude traded near $108 per barrel Monday morning while WTI crossed $102, each up roughly 3% on the session and more than 70% above where they started the year. The war in Iran is now in its fifth week, and the supply picture just got significantly more complicated.

A Second Chokepoint Enters the Picture

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since early March, stripping roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply from world markets in a single stroke. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline — the only meaningful rerouting option — is already running at its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day with zero room to expand.

Now a second chokepoint is under direct threat. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen are positioning to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the narrow passage between Yemen and Djibouti that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Every westbound oil tanker that escapes Hormuz via Saudi Arabia’s pipeline must still transit this corridor to reach European and Atlantic markets. Insurance costs for Red Sea routes are climbing sharply and shipowners are already pulling back.

If the Bab el-Mandeb is closed, the market loses another estimated 7 million barrels per day — stacked on top of the 15 million already offline. That math would represent the most severe supply disruption in recorded energy history, eclipsing the 1973 oil shock in scale and speed.

Washington Raises the Stakes

The second driver of Monday’s move came from the White House. President Trump renewed explicit threats to destroy Iran’s oil infrastructure, power generation plants, and desalination facilities if a deal is not reached imminently. The U.S. now has approximately 50,000 troops deployed to the Gulf, including elite rapid-entry units. A Wall Street Journal report Sunday evening added that the administration is weighing a special operations mission to extract uranium from Iran’s underground nuclear compounds — a scenario that analysts broadly view as an immediate and severe escalation trigger.

Treasury Secretary Bessent offered a partial offset, hinting at potential U.S. or multinational naval escorts to restore navigation through the straits — which briefly pulled futures off their highs at Monday’s open. But the underlying tension held. Iran has continued to insist it is not in active negotiations, even as Trump has claimed “great progress” toward a deal.

JPMorgan’s commodities strategy team, led by Natasha Kaneva, wrote Sunday that markets are still underestimating the downside risks. The concern, they noted, is no longer whether this escalates further — it’s when.

The Broader Market Fallout

The energy crisis is metastasizing beyond the oil patch. European gas storage entered this conflict at historically low levels — roughly 30% capacity — after a harsh winter. Dutch TTF gas benchmarks have nearly doubled since hostilities began. Chemical and steel manufacturers across the UK and EU have imposed surcharges of up to 30% to offset surging input costs. The ECB has already postponed planned rate cuts and revised its inflation forecasts higher.

The International Energy Agency announced what would be the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in its history — 400 million barrels — as a near-term stabilizer. It addresses the pressure but not the cause. With two chokepoints now in play, no diplomatic resolution on the table, and 50,000 U.S. troops in the region, the structural bid under oil prices isn’t dissipating this week.

The energy industry’s own assessment is blunt: this may only be the beginning of the supply shock, not the peak of it.

FreightCar America (RAIL) – Updating Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform


Monday, March 30, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We revised our FY 2026 estimates to reflect lower margins in the first and second quarters. While our full year revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates are unchanged, the quarterly allocations have shifted. We forecast first quarter revenue, EBITDA, and EPS of $86.0 million, $7.0 million, and $0.04, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $89.0 million, $8.8 million, and $0.08. We have assumed growing Aftermarket segment revenue throughout the year. Our FY 2026 revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates remain $525.0 million, $44.5 million, and $0.54, respectively. 

Lowering 1H’ 2026 expectations. We think the first quarter of 2026 will reflect the fewest deliveries during the year, along with a less favorable product mix. Accordingly, we expect 2026 deliveries, revenue, and earnings to be weighted toward the second half of the year, supported by higher volumes, an improved product mix, and increased contributions from new builds and retrofit programs.


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The Market Is Speaking in Two Languages Today — and Both Matter

Monday’s session delivered one of the cleanest market splits in recent weeks — energy surging, semiconductors cratering, and the major indexes going their separate ways as Wall Street entered a holiday-shortened trading week with no shortage of unresolved questions.

The Dow Jones added roughly 0.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.7% and the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1.1% by afternoon trading. Both the Dow and Nasdaq are now in correction territory following last week’s close. The divergence wasn’t noise — it reflected two very real and competing forces battling for the market’s direction.

The Chip Selloff Has a New Villain

Micron led semiconductor stocks sharply lower on Monday, falling more than 10% in afternoon trading. Sandisk shed 8%, Intel dropped 4%, AMD fell close to 3%, and Nvidia gave back roughly 1%. The across-the-board weakness extended a sell-off that began last week and found fresh fuel over the weekend.

The catalyst is a Google algorithm called TurboQuant, announced last week, which allows AI models to run more efficiently by cutting the amount of memory required. The implications for memory chip demand — and pricing — are exactly what the market is now attempting to price in. If AI workloads require meaningfully less memory bandwidth to operate, the demand thesis underpinning names like Micron gets complicated fast.

The debate is far from settled. Experts argue that memory chip pricing could stay firm through 2027, pointing to continued strength in AI data center demand with no signs of a slowdown and supply conditions tight enough to drive price inflation in several chip categories. That’s a reasonable counter — but on a Monday in a correction, the market is choosing the bearish read first and asking questions later.

Oil Doesn’t Care About Algorithms

On the other side of the ledger, crude had another strong session. Brent held above $107 per barrel and WTI crossed $103 as the Iran conflict continued to dominate commodity markets. President Trump added fresh fuel Monday, telling the Financial Times that his preference is for the U.S. to control Iran’s oil industry indefinitely — language that signals the conflict’s resolution is not imminent and that supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and now the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could persist for weeks or months.

Energy was the one sector that didn’t need to rationalize its rally today. The math is straightforward: supply is constrained, no deal is in sight, and $100+ oil is becoming the baseline assumption rather than the shock scenario.

Eyes on the Week Ahead

With Friday’s session closed for Good Friday, this is a compressed week with outsized data. JOLTS, ADP private payrolls, and the March jobs report all land before the long weekend — and after the January-February whipsaw in employment numbers, each print carries extra weight. Nike’s earnings will offer a read on consumer health that the macro data alone can’t provide.

The setup: a market digesting a genuine technology disruption narrative while simultaneously pricing in the worst energy crisis in a generation. That’s not a market that moves in one direction.