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Mortgage Rates Hit 7.4%, the Highest in Nearly Three Years

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The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.4% this week, according to Freddie Mac survey data through Wednesday, up from 7.28% a week earlier and the highest level in nearly three years. Other measures are higher still. Mortgage News Daily calculated 7.59% as of Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 7.49% average for the week through Friday, and Zillow data showed a 7.52% rate on a 30-year purchase loan today.

The climb has been steady. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 6.65% in late August, which means borrowing costs have risen by roughly three-quarters of a percentage point in about seven weeks. The average crossed 7% in late September for the first time in nearly three years and has kept climbing. On a $400,000 loan, a 7.4% rate means principal and interest of roughly $2,770 a month, about $290 more than at the 6.3% level of a year ago.

Mortgage rates are following bond yields higher as investors worry about government spending, inflation tied to the Iran war, and ongoing economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield has hovered around 5.3% this week, retreating slightly after briefly touching its highest level since 2002. That link to long-term yields explains why mortgage rates have kept rising even as expectations for another Fed hike in October have faded, since home loan costs track the bond market more closely than the Fed’s policy rate.

The housing market is showing the strain. One housing economist said the higher rates have unsettled the market, noting that pending home sales fell from a year earlier in both August and September, before rates even crossed 7%, and that sellers are cutting prices at a pace not seen in four years. Higher rates reduce what buyers can afford, which pushes sellers to lower prices to attract them, and it keeps many existing homeowners with lower-rate loans from listing at all.

Refinancing is not offering much of an escape either. Zillow data put the average 30-year refinance rate at 7.41% today and the 15-year at 6.76%, while 15-year purchase loans averaged 6.70%. For buyers weighing alternatives, a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.13%, only modestly below the 30-year fixed, which limits the appeal of taking on adjustable-rate risk.

Several upcoming data points will show whether rates are close to a peak: next week’s Freddie Mac survey, the September inflation report, and the Fed’s October 27 and 28 meeting, where futures see only a small chance of another hike.

For small and microcap investors, the mortgage market is a useful read on how long-term rates are feeding into the real economy. Housing-linked businesses, from builders and building products suppliers to real estate services and home improvement retailers, are typically among the first to feel higher borrowing costs, and smaller companies with less pricing power and more floating-rate debt feel it more acutely. Mortgage-related financial companies face the same pressure through lower loan volumes. Because long yields, not the Fed, are driving this move, relief is likely to depend on easing concerns about deficits and inflation rather than on the central bank pausing.

MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – Patient Enrollment Completed In THIO-101, Enrollment Milestone Reached In THIO-104

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Thursday, October 08, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

MAIA Reported Two Important Clinical Trial Milestones. MAIA announced the completion of enrollment for the Part C Expansion Stage of the THIO-101 trial. This part of THIO-101 has enrolled 150 patients. Separately, the Phase 3 THIO-104 trial reached enrollment of 65 patients, putting it on schedule to enroll 100 patients by YE2026. Reaching the full-year enrollment goal could allow an interim analysis in FY2027.

Results From THIO-101 Part C Have Been Positive To Date. As discussed in our Research Note on September 22, MAIA recently announced initial efficacy data from the THIO-101 Part C. The evaluable population, consisting of patients with at least one post-treatment evaluation by tumor scan, showed a disease control rate (DCR) of 90.5%. This far exceeds published studies that show a 25%–35% DCR for standard third-line chemotherapy regimens.


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Viatris to Acquire Pacira BioSciences for $1.65 Billion, Expanding Into Non-Opioid Pain Therapies

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Viatris (Nasdaq: VTRS) announced Thursday it has agreed to acquire Pacira BioSciences (Nasdaq: PCRX) for $36.50 per share in cash, an aggregate equity value of $1.65 billion. The deal gives Viatris two marketed, patent-protected non-opioid pain medicines and positions the company as a leader in a category where patients and physicians continue to look for alternatives to opioids.

Pacira’s portfolio rests on EXPAREL, a long-acting local anesthetic used to manage pain after surgery, and ZILRETTA, an extended-release injection for osteoarthritis knee pain. Company materials cite up to a 78% decrease in opioid consumption with EXPAREL, though the release notes the clinical benefit of that reduction was not demonstrated. Over the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, Pacira generated about $746 million in revenue and $177 million in adjusted EBITDA. On equity value alone, the price works out to roughly 2.2 times revenue and 9.3 times adjusted EBITDA. GAAP net income over the same period was a much smaller $14.6 million, reflecting significant amortization of acquired intangibles and stock-based compensation.

Viatris says the acquisition advances its push to build an innovative medicines business, and that the products complement its fast-acting meloxicam opportunity in pain. The company also gains Pacira’s U.S. commercial, market access, medical affairs, and research capabilities, along with a pipeline led by a Phase 2 gene therapy candidate for knee osteoarthritis. Viatris plans to apply its expertise in intellectual property and product lifecycle management to extend the portfolio’s reach, including across select international markets where it already operates.

Viatris expects to fund the deal primarily from excess cash, with the remainder from short-term borrowings, and says the impact on its gross leverage ratio will be minimal. The transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to its financial guidance metrics. It will be structured as a tender offer followed by a second-step merger at the same price, with both boards having unanimously approved and Pacira’s board recommending that shareholders tender. Closing requires that a majority of Pacira’s outstanding shares be tendered and that the regulatory waiting period expire, and is expected by the end of 2026. Once complete, Pacira will be delisted from Nasdaq. Viatris will discuss the transaction when it reports third-quarter results on November 5.

Pacira’s leadership said the company has helped nearly 20 million patients access non-opioid pain management and that Viatris’ scale and resources will help bring its therapies to more patients.

The thesis behind the deal is worth examining. Viatris highlighted its record of sustaining sales after competition arrives, a reminder that protected products do not stay protected forever and that part of what Viatris is paying for is its ability to manage that transition.

For small and microcap investors, the takeaway is that commercial-stage healthcare companies with profitable, differentiated products are drawing strategic interest at disciplined valuations. Roughly nine times adjusted EBITDA on equity value is a useful benchmark for smaller specialty pharma and medical technology companies with established revenue, and it reinforces a theme running through this year’s healthcare deal activity, including Supernus’s merger with Indivior and MiMedx’s acquisition of Sanara MedTech. Companies still in development are a different proposition, since their deal values depend far more on clinical milestones than on current earnings.

Take a moment to take a look at more emerging growth biotech companies by looking at Noble’s Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

Fed Was Unanimous on the September Hike, but October Odds Have Faded

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Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting, released Wednesday, show that every participant agreed interest rates needed to move higher. The committee voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate, its first increase in three years, and most members projected at least one more quarter-point hike before the end of the year.

The minutes describe a committee that saw inflation as elevated and the labor market as near full employment, with some signs of strengthening. Economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. Almost all participants judged that risks to inflation were tilted to the upside, while risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced. That balance of risks was the basis for the hike.

But the data since that meeting has shifted the picture. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 3% in August, below the 3.3% economists expected and down from 3.3% in July. Then the September jobs report came in far weaker than forecast, with just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2% from 4.1%. In other words, the two conditions that justified the hike, stubborn inflation and a firming labor market, both looked softer within weeks.

Several officials had already begun tempering expectations before the jobs report. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both acknowledged that inflation remains too high but said the central bank should take time to assess whether it is on a downward path. Williams said there is no need for urgency after the September increase and that the Fed has time to gather more information. That marks a notable shift from late September, when other officials were publicly arguing that more hikes were needed. Core inflation at 3% is still well above the Fed’s 2% target, so the debate now appears to be about timing rather than direction.

Markets have adjusted accordingly. The Fed meets again October 27 and 28, and futures now price only about a 17% chance of a hike at that meeting, down from roughly two-thirds in late September. The odds of a hike in December sit near 70%, which suggests traders see the Fed pausing rather than finishing.

A pause would not necessarily bring relief to long-term borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield is still near 5.3%, and much of the recent rise has reflected investors demanding higher real returns to hold long-dated debt rather than the Fed’s policy rate, a dynamic that a pause in hikes may do little to change.

For small and microcap investors, the shift matters. Roughly 32% of Russell 2000 companies carry floating-rate debt, compared with about 6% of S&P 500 companies, so changes in the expected path of short-term rates flow more directly into smaller companies’ interest costs. A pause at the current range of 3.75% to 4.00% would stabilize that expense, while a December hike would extend it. The weaker jobs data cuts both ways, since easing rate pressure helps leveraged balance sheets but a cooling labor market can hurt consumer-facing companies that depend on household spending, such as restaurant operator The ONE Group Hospitality and travel deals publisher Travelzoo.

Small Caps are Bending, Not Breaking, as Credit Stress Builds

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Stocks are at records, credit markets are showing strain, and small caps are in the middle of the debate. The picture is more mixed than the headlines suggest.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on Tuesday. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,830, about 8% below its third-quarter high of 3,068 but still up roughly 14% this year, after finishing 2025 near 2,482. As of July, it had also outpaced the S&P 500 over six months (16.9% versus 8.9%) and one year (20.0% versus 9.9%), according to Benzinga.

The pressure is real. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.27% on Tuesday, a level not seen since 2002. JPMorgan strategists say deeply distressed leveraged loans are at their highest since March 2020, and spreads on CCC-rated bonds have passed 1,000 basis points.

Those figures describe leveraged loans and junk bonds, though, not the companies in the Russell 2000.

Where small caps stand

Small caps do carry more rate risk. Interest expense takes up 31% of EBITDA at Russell 2000 companies, versus 6.7% for the S&P 500, and about 30% of their debt is floating-rate, according to July data from The Kobeissi Letter.

But that sensitivity works in both directions. When oil prices fell and rate expectations eased this spring, the Russell 2000 gained about 11.7% in the first 20 days of April, per 24/7 Wall St. The index has since recovered about 16% from its low during the Iran war selloff, breaking out of a multi-year base near 2,000 and closing the second quarter at 3,024.

Debt is concentrated, and many companies are cushioned

Not every small cap is carrying a heavy load. A 2024 Wellington analysis found that half of the Russell 2000’s debt sits with just 10% of its companies, while 33% held net cash, versus 13% for the S&P 500.

That study predates this year’s rate moves, but it points to a market where stress is concentrated rather than universal. JPMorgan’s latest data fits that pattern: technology accounts for 39% of distressed loans, with software borrowers facing more than $100 billion of maturing debt. Nearly 40% of the index’s companies are unprofitable, which also means a majority are not.

Signs of resilience

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said weeks ago, after the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike, that the labor market’s relative strength suggested higher borrowing costs had not yet turned into broader economic stress. On Tuesday, he warned that spreads could eventually widen as governments and AI spending compete for capital.

Markets are calm for now. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed near 15. JPMorgan projects a 2.25% default rate this year, though it expects defaults to rise next year.

What could help

Investors will be watching the 10-year yield, CCC spreads and the Fed’s next meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. Falling yields would ease refinancing for the many small caps with debt coming due, and third-quarter earnings should show how companies are managing interest costs. Oil, trading near $90 a barrel, is another swing factor: its drop in April helped reset rate expectations.

Credit conditions are tightening, but small caps have already shown they can rebound when pressure eases. For companies with solid balance sheets, the data point to a hurdle rather than a roadblock.

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) – Q1 Headwinds, Full-Year Outlook Intact

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Wednesday, October 07, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

George Proost, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 expectations reset. We are lowering our fiscal Q1 revenue and adj. EBITDA forecasts to $299.0 million and $72.5 million, down from $307.0 million and $77.0 million, respectively. The revision largely reflects softer-than-expected water-park results due to unfavorable weather, pricing, and season-pass decisions, as well as lingering disruption from the World Cup.

Water-park weakness appears fixable. While weather and an aggressive, roughly 30% price increase pressured attendance, per-capita spending improved, and labor costs declined. Management plans to recalibrate pricing, start selling season passes earlier, and further optimize admissions to position the parks for improved performance next season.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – To Redeem Debt, Extend Credit Facility

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Wednesday, October 07, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Debt Redemption. The GEO Group is redeeming all of its $650 million 8.625% Senior Secured Notes due in 2029. The redemption will be funded from net proceeds of the facility sale announced Monday. We view this as a significant positive for the Company, reducing outstanding debt, eliminating interest payments, and setting the Company up to be more aggressive in its share repurchase program.

Details. The redemption price for the 2029 Senior Secured Notes will be equal to $1,043.13 per $1,000.00 original principal amount, or approximately $678 million, plus any accrued and unpaid interest. GEO is receiving a net $705 million from the facility sale and had another $55 million of cash on the balance sheet as of June 30th. The redemption of the 2029 Senior Secured Notes will occur on October 15, 2026. GEO will save some $56 million in annual interest expense.


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Conduent (CNDT) – Transit Sale Closes; Deleveraging Story Advances

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Wednesday, October 07, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

George Proost, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Transit sale completed. Conduent completed the previously announced sale of its public transit and fare collection business to Modaxo on October 1. In our view, the closing represents another important step in the company’s efforts to simplify its portfolio, reduce financial leverage, and focus resources on its core Commercial and Government businesses.

$125 million earmarked for debt reduction. Conduent received $140 million in cash consideration at closing and expects to use $125 million of net proceeds to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility. We view the debt reduction favorably and believe the improved balance sheet should enhance the company’s financial flexibility as management executes its ASCEND strategy.


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Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI) – Positioning For The Next Step

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Wednesday, October 07, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

George Proost, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Revising estimates. We are lowering our second-half 2026 revenue expectations to reflect a softer advertising environment, including lower expectations for core and political advertising. We now forecast Q3 revenue of $42.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 million, followed by Q4 revenue of $49.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $6.5 million.

Cost reductions are providing support. Despite the challenging revenue environment, we believe Beasley’s significantly lower operating cost structure is beginning to meaningfully benefit profitability. We forecast full-year 2026 revenue to decline 13.1% to $178.9 million, while adjusted EBITDA increases 45.2% to $15.3 million and the adjusted EBITDA margin expands to 8.5% from 5.1% in 2025.


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Google Signs $4.3 Billion, 20-Year Nuclear Power Deal With Constellation Energy

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Google (Nasdaq: GOOG, GOOGL) announced Tuesday a $4.3 billion agreement with Constellation Energy (Nasdaq: CEG) to bring 890 megawatts of nuclear power online through a 20-year power purchase agreement, the latest step in the technology industry’s race to secure electricity for the AI buildout. Constellation shares were up more than 12% in Tuesday trading, while Google was slightly lower.

The new capacity will not come from new reactors. It will come from upgrades at six existing nuclear plants across Illinois, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including modernized turbines, steam generators, and digital control systems. Upgrading existing plants is generally a faster route to new capacity than building reactors from scratch, which can take years to permit and construct. By the usual rule of thumb that a gigawatt powers nearly 800,000 homes, 890 megawatts is enough for roughly 700,000.

The structure matters for both sides. Google says the contract gives Constellation the revenue certainty it needs to invest in updates to 11 of its reactors, and that it is designed so utility customers do not absorb added costs from the AI boom. Constellation will also use Google’s Gemini Enterprise software for site selection, outage management, and infrastructure protection, which makes this a technology partnership as well as a power contract.

Google is not alone in locking up nuclear supply. Microsoft signed a 20-year agreement with Constellation in 2024 to source power from a previously shuttered reactor at Three Mile Island by 2028. Amazon has signed its own nuclear power deal with Constellation, and Meta has agreed to a 20-year purchase of power from Vistra’s plants and also has a 20-year agreement for the output of Constellation’s Clinton plant in Illinois. That gives Constellation long-term agreements with four of the largest technology companies. Google has also invested in nuclear projects in Georgia, Iowa, and Tennessee, and companies across the industry are exploring small modular reactors designed to deliver megawatts rather than a full gigawatt.

The pattern points to where the AI buildout is actually constrained. Chips and data center shells can be ordered, but reliable around-the-clock power cannot be added quickly. That is why the largest buyers are signing two-decade contracts years before the electricity arrives, a dynamic that runs through the US data center construction boom. It also helps explain why a single contract can move a power generator’s stock by double digits, since it converts uncertain future demand into contracted revenue. Nuclear carries a lingering public stigma, but it offers clean, steady output compared with carbon-based options.

For small and microcap investors, the read-through is about the supply chain around power rather than the contracts themselves. Upgrading six plants and eleven reactors means demand for turbine and steam generator components, digital controls, engineering services, and grid equipment, areas where smaller specialized companies operate. The caution is that Constellation’s jump shows how quickly the market prices in announced deals. Whether smaller names benefit depends on whether orders actually reach them and whether the hyperscalers keep spending at the current pace while borrowing costs stay elevated.

The GEO Group (GEO) – A Sale; Increased Buyback Authorization

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Tuesday, October 06, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Facilities Sale. The GEO Group has sold its Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center complex to the Federal government for $950 million, or a net of $705 million. This is the first facility sale by GEO to the Department of Homeland Security and follows similar transactions earlier this year by competitor CoreCivic to DHS. The sale provides a solid foundation for the value of GEO’s assets in our view.

Details. The Adelanto complex consists of 3 buildings with a total of 2,644 beds. On a consolidated basis, the sale price equates to over $359,000/bed. GEO expects to continue providing support services to the Federal government at these locations under the existing contract agreement, although we would expect some changes to the contract as GEO no longer owns the facilities. The current contract runs through mid-December 2029 with a 5-year option period.


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Tectonic Metals Inc. (TETOF) – Preparing for the Next Phase of Growth

Posted on by [email protected]


Tuesday, October 06, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Senior leadership team appointment. Effective October 1, Tectonic appointed Mr. Eduard Epshtein, CPA, CA, as Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary. Mr. Epshtein has more than 20 years of capital markets, project development, transactions, and corporate finance experience, including 16 years as Chief Financial Officer of Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC, TSX: LAC). During his tenure, Lithium Americas evolved from an exploration-stage company into a NYSE-listed producer with a market capitalization exceeding US$5 billion.

Experience aligned with Tectonic’s next phase. We view the appointment positively given Mr. Epshtein’s experience advancing major resource projects from exploration through construction and production. His experience with project finance, strategic partnerships, joint ventures, offtake arrangements, M&A, and corporate governance should become increasingly relevant as Tectonic moves Flat from exploration toward resource definition and economic evaluation.


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NN (NNBR) – A Deeper Look Into the Implications of the PIPE Transaction

Posted on by [email protected]


Tuesday, October 06, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Transaction. As noted, NN is eliminating its outstanding Preferred stock, which will eliminate the associated dividends that cost the Company approximately $19 million in 2025. NN issued 11.3 million shares in the PIPE transaction and an additional 4.8 million pre-funded warrants. Eliminating the dividends and increasing the share count would lower our 4Q26 estimated loss per share to $0.03 from a prior $0.06. The elimination of $122.1 million of outstanding preferred stock as of June 30th significantly improves NN’s capital structure.

Term Loan. At the end of June, NN had $133.5 million outstanding under its term loan facility at a 13.5% interest rate. We believe the elimination of the preferred, along with solid operating performance, gives management the opportunity to refi the term debt at a lower rate. For illustrative purposes, reducing the interest rate to 10% from 13.5% would save the Company $4.6 million in annual interest costs, or about $0.04/sh, based on 100 million shares outstanding.


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