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Treasury Yields Keep Climbing. Even Fed-Adjacent Voices Are Taking Notice

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The bond market selloff we detailed just yesterday didn’t ease up, it accelerated. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.12% Wednesday, extending its climb to the highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield touched 5.4%, its highest level since 2004, while the 5-year yield also jumped to levels last seen in 2007. Rates have held at these elevated levels since.

The reaction from BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income carries particular weight given his background. Rick Rieder, who was among the finalists considered for the Federal Reserve chair position that ultimately went to Kevin Warsh, described the situation plainly, calling it not a crisis but an eye-opener, and something investors genuinely need to think through carefully. Coming from someone who was seriously considered for the job now shaping the Fed’s response to exactly this kind of market stress, that framing is worth taking seriously.

The catalysts behind the move are the same ones we’ve tracked closely this week, oil prices advancing again and business activity data coming in hotter than expected, both reinforcing concerns that the Fed may need to raise rates further. Fed officials are doing little to calm those fears. New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday it would be reasonable to expect another rate hike before year-end to bring inflation under control, echoing comments Fed Governor Michael Barr made just a day earlier. That’s now two sitting Fed officials publicly reinforcing the hawkish posture Warsh struck at his Jackson Hole speech last month, a signal that this isn’t isolated commentary but a genuinely coordinated message from the committee.

What makes Rieder’s specific choice of words notable is the distinction he’s drawing. Calling something an eye-opener rather than a crisis suggests this isn’t a moment of panic or dysfunction in the bond market itself, but rather a signal worth taking seriously about where borrowing costs are actually headed, and for how long. That’s a meaningfully different read than the alarm bells some market commentary has sounded, and it’s coming from someone with genuine insider perspective on how the Fed is likely thinking about this exact tradeoff.

For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, the practical stakes haven’t changed from what we outlined yesterday, they’ve simply intensified. Small and microcap businesses carry disproportionately more variable-rate debt than large cap peers, and every additional basis point on the 10-year and 30-year yields translates into real, rising borrowing costs for exactly this segment of the market. With two Fed officials now on record supporting further hikes and yields showing no sign of retreating, the higher-cost-of-capital environment weighing on small caps looks increasingly like the new baseline rather than a temporary spike, something worth watching closely heading into year-end.

V2X (VVX) – Follow-on Award

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Thursday, September 24, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Business. V2X continues to add business with a recent follow-on award from the Air Force for base support services and a position on an ID/IQ supporting the Air Force’s Carriage Equipment Production Effort for the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) cruise missile program. Such awards demonstrate V2X’s strong position to bid for and win new and expanded business, in our opinion.

Follow-on. The Department of War announced that V2X Systems has been awarded an undefinitized contract action with a not-to-exceed ceiling price of $231.8 million, a modification to a previously awarded contract for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. The modification brings the total cumulative face value of the contract to $594.2 million. Work will be performed at Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base, Iraq, and is expected to be completed by July 17, 2027. Foreign Military Sales funds in the amount of $115.9 million are being obligated at the time of award.


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NN (NNBR) – Raises Full Year Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Guide

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Thursday, September 24, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Raise. For the third time in 2026, NN management raised full-year guidance, reflecting the positive momentum of the business, in our view. Full-year revenue is now expected to be in the $470-$490 million range, with adjusted EBITDA now projected to be in the $58-$68 million range, up from a prior $460-$480 million and $55-$65 million, respectively. Initial 2026 guidance called for revenue in the $445-$465 million range and adjusted EBITDA in the $50-$60 million range.

Management Commentary. NN management noted, “Our business continues to build momentum as we ramp up in our key growth markets of Data Center, Defense & Electronics, and Medical, where demand for our solutions remains strong and actively expanding. Our year-to-date results and year-to-go forecast underpin this improved guidance and reflect the steady performance of our growth and cost programs.”


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NanoViricides (NNVC) – Phase 2 Clinical Trial For HV-387 In MPox Begins

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Thursday, September 24, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Phase 2 Trial Patient Enrollment Has Started. NanoViricides has begun enrolling patients in the Phase 2 clinical trial testing NV-387 for MPox Virus Infection in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This meets our expected timeframe for the start of the trial, with preliminary results expected in late 4Q26. We anticipate a second trial testing NV-387 to start shortly in the same region.

Phase 2 Trial Design. The trial is an open-label study designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of NV-387 compared with the standard of care. The trial is being conducted in Lodja, Sankuru Province, DRC, a remote province not (yet) affected by the Ebola outbreaks seen in other regions. NV-387 is formulated as an oral solid (gummies) that does not require refrigeration or cold storage, making it practical to administer in remote regions.


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Mortgage Rates Just Hit a Two-Year High — Here’s What’s Going On

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Homebuyers hoping to catch a break before the year winds down are getting the opposite. The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.37% on Thursday, the highest level since May 2024, and it’s part of a broader climb that’s been building for weeks. Other trackers, which move a bit slower day to day, confirm the trend: Freddie Mac put the weekly average at 7.03%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association calculated it at 7.12% — both the highest readings since May 2024. As of today, purchase rates on a 30-year fixed sit around 7.20%, with 15-year fixed loans closer to 6.69%. Refinance rates are running similarly, at roughly 7.13% for a 30-year fixed and 6.59% for a 15-year.

The reason rates keep climbing comes down to the bond market. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield closely, and that yield has been on a tear, topping 5.1% this week for the first time in 19 years. Investors are demanding more return on that debt because of rising concern over oil prices, persistent inflation, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates further rather than ease up. When bond investors get spooked about inflation eating into their returns, they sell, yields rise to compensate, and mortgage rates follow right along. The timing is especially rough for buyers hoping to close before the 2026 season wraps and everyone shifts attention to the holidays.

What this actually means depends on where you sit. For buyers, every fraction of a percentage point compounds over 30 years — on a $400,000 loan, the gap between a 6.5% and 7.4% rate works out to roughly $230 more per month, or over $80,000 across the life of the loan. That’s exactly why locking your rate once you’ve found the house matters so much in a volatile stretch like this. For anyone considering a refinance, the math is less about whether now is universally “good” and more about your personal break-even point — the common rule of thumb is that it’s worth it if you can drop your rate by one to two percentage points, but you have to weigh that against closing costs, which typically run 2% to 6% of the loan amount, and how long you actually plan to stay in the home. And regardless of which side you’re on, the things you can control still move the needle: credit score, debt-to-income ratio, and down payment size all directly affect the rate a lender offers, so shopping around across banks, credit unions, and mortgage-specific lenders is worth the effort even when the overall market is expensive.

Zoomed out, today’s rates sting compared to the pandemic-era lows everyone remembers — the lowest 30-year rate on record was 2.65% back in January 2021, and it’s extremely unlikely we see anything close to that again soon. But rates near 7.4% are still within a historically normal range once you look back further than the last five years. That’s not much comfort if you’re staring down a monthly payment, but it’s useful context for understanding where we actually are, versus where we got used to being.

Junior Mining Consolidation Isn’t Coming. It’s Already Underway

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The Artemis Gold acquisition of Vista Gold we covered earlier this week wasn’t an isolated event. It was one data point in what industry data increasingly confirms is a genuine, extended wave of consolidation sweeping through the junior and intermediate mining sector, and the drivers behind it suggest this cycle has real staying power rather than representing a short-term spike.

The numbers tell a clear story. Global mining M&A totaled roughly $93.7 billion in completed deals during 2025, and gold and silver assets alone accounted for more than 77% of total deal volume in early 2026. The list of major transactions reads like a sector-wide roll-up already in progress, Gold Fields acquiring Gold Road Resources for approximately $2.4 billion, Northern Star Resources buying De Grey Mining for roughly $3.3 billion, Equinox Gold’s $2.8 billion purchase of Calibre Mining, Coeur Mining’s $1.7 billion acquisition of SilverCrest Metals, and Pan American Silver’s $2.1 billion takeover of MAG Silver. Mining stocks claimed a record 60% of the spots on this year’s TSX30, the annual ranking of Canada’s top-performing stocks, a genuinely striking signal of where investor capital has been flowing.

Three forces are converging to drive this cycle, and each appears structural rather than cyclical. First, reserve depletion. Major producers spent much of the 2010s underinvesting in exploration during a prolonged bear market, and many are now confronting genuinely thinning production pipelines that organic exploration alone cannot refill quickly enough. Acquiring juniors with already-defined, advanced-stage resources is simply faster than starting from scratch. Second, sustained strength in gold and silver prices has given larger producers the cash flow and equity currency to pursue acquisitions, while depressed valuations among smaller developers following years of underperformance have made those same juniors attractively priced targets. Third, and increasingly important, critical minerals supply security has become an explicit policy priority, with roughly a third of surveyed industry executives specifically expecting consolidation in this category as governments and producers alike race to secure supply chains independent of Chinese dominance, a theme we detailed closely when covering the Greenland security agreement earlier this year.

Industry analysts point to a fairly consistent profile among likely takeover targets, advanced-stage resources located in stable, Tier-1 mining jurisdictions, high-grade or district-scale potential, reasonable valuations following recent market corrections, and experienced management teams with a track record of either developing or successfully exiting projects.

That profile is worth keeping in mind when evaluating smaller companies in this space. Junior developers advancing resources in favorable jurisdictions such as Century Lithium, working a lithium project in Nevada, Kuya Silver, developing precious metals assets in Peru, Tectonic Metals, advancing gold exploration in Alaska, and Power Metallic Mines, exploring nickel and copper deposits in Quebec, all sit in exactly the category this consolidation wave has been targeting, smaller companies with defined, advanced-stage projects in stable jurisdictions that larger, cash-generative producers are actively seeking to acquire.

None of this guarantees any individual company becomes a takeover target, and early-stage mining developers carry substantial execution, financing, and geological risk regardless of broader sector M&A trends. But the structural case for continued consolidation, depleted major-producer pipelines, strong commodity prices, and mounting critical minerals policy pressure, looks considerably more durable than a passing trend.

Take a moment and take a look at more small cap mining companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list.

Oil Just Fell to a Two-Week Low. Saudi Arabia and Iraq Are Quietly Rerouting Around the Strait of Hormuz

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Oil prices extended a six-session decline Wednesday, with Brent crude falling to $98.16 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate dropping to $89.01, both settling at roughly two-week lows. Brent closed below $100 a barrel Tuesday for the first time since September 8, a notable reversal after weeks of escalation-driven price spikes that we’ve tracked closely throughout this conflict.

Two forces are driving the decline, and both matter for understanding where oil heads next. The first is diplomatic. President Trump warned Tuesday that the US could take severe action against Iran, while simultaneously saying his envoys had held productive talks with Iranian mediators in New York and describing real momentum toward reaching a deal to end the nearly seven-month war. Markets appear to be choosing to price in the possibility of talks succeeding, even amid continued tough rhetoric on both sides.

The second, more concrete factor is supply, and it’s arguably the more important development. Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea on Tuesday, a route that reroutes roughly 4 million barrels per day, about 4% of global oil supply, around the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The pipeline had been shut since September 11 following drone attacks Saudi Arabia has blamed on Iraqi militia forces. Saudi Arabia is also now offering additional barrels to Asian refiners for pickup outside the strait altogether. Iraq is following a similar playbook, with its oil minister confirming exports have climbed above 3 million barrels per day and stating the country expects to boost shipments routed through Turkey to more than 600,000 barrels per day. Shiptracking data shows Iraqi exports climbing in August from July’s levels, though they still remain below the roughly 3.4 to 3.7 million barrel per day pace seen before the war began.

Adding further downward pressure, industry data released Tuesday showed US crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels last week, catching analysts off guard, who had broadly expected a decline.

For investors tracking the small and microcap space, this shift is worth watching closely, and it cuts in the opposite direction from what we detailed when covering diesel’s all-time high and the broader oil surge earlier this month. Consumer-facing companies in transportation, logistics, and hospitality, squeezed hard by the run-up in fuel costs, stand to benefit if this decline holds and extends toward the pump, a group that includes companies like Commercial Vehicle Group, a supplier to the trucking industry, and The ONE Group Hospitality, a restaurant operator directly exposed to consumer discretionary spending. Domestic energy producers, conversely, face renewed margin pressure as prices retreat from the highs that supported their economics all summer, a dynamic worth watching for companies like InPlay Oil and Alliance Resource Partners. Whether this reversal proves durable likely depends on whether the diplomatic momentum Trump described translates into an actual agreement, or whether these alternative supply routes simply prove temporary workarounds to a conflict still very much unresolved.

Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) – Tegoprubart Extension Study Maintains Improvement Over Tacrolimus

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Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Long-Term Data Updated At Transplant Conference. Eledon presented an update to the Phase 2 BESTOW Extension study at the International Congress of The Transplantation Society. Analysis up to 24 months after transplantation showed that patients treated with tegoprubart had statistically significant improvements in kidney function compared with patients treated with tacrolimus. Separately, tegoprubart has also received Fast Track designation from the FDA in the kidney transplant indication.

Updated Extension Study Data. Patients completing the BESTOW trial were entered into an Extension Stage to follow outcomes after the trial period ended. At 18, 21, and 24 months, tegoprubart patients had a higher eGFR of about 71 mL/min/1.73m2 compared with 58 mL/min/1.73m2 for tacrolimus, with differences that were statistically significant. Tegoprubart patients showed a continued improvement in eGFR after the trial, while tacrolimus patients showed a gradual but steady decline.


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Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF) – Advancing Plans for a Stand-Alone Merchant Chlor-Alkali Plant

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Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Advancing a merchant chlor-alkali plant. Century Lithium plans to develop a commercial-scale chlor-alkali plant in the Western United States that would produce chlorine, hydrochloric acid, and sodium hydroxide from sodium chloride, water, and electricity. The plant is expected to initially produce at a rate of 300 short tons per day (st/d) of chlorine, with potential expansion to 600 st/d depending on regional demand and the supply needs of Angel Island.

Early offtake interest provides commercial support. Century has signed eight non-binding Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) that could collectively fully utilize the plant’s initial production, while discussions with additional customers are ongoing. The company is evaluating sites in Nevada and Utah based on power, feedstock, rail access, permitting, and proximity to customers, with final site selection expected following completion of due diligence.


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Nvidia’s Stock Got Cheaper While Its Business Got Stronger

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Here’s a genuinely strange fact about the world’s most valuable company. Nvidia shares are trading at less than 17 times expected profit over the next 12 months, the cheapest valuation the stock has carried in more than a decade. That multiple is roughly half what Nvidia commanded in 2025, when its revenue and profit growth were actually slower than they are now, and it’s down sharply from more than 25 times earnings estimates as recently as May.

Normally, a stock getting cheaper while its fundamentals get stronger would be viewed as an obvious buying opportunity. What makes this situation genuinely worth examining is that the market appears to be sending a very specific signal, expressing real skepticism about whether Nvidia’s current earnings power is sustainable, even as the numbers themselves remain extraordinary. Nvidia’s revenue and net income are projected to jump 90% and 99%, respectively, in the current fiscal year, up from 65% growth for both metrics the year before, and the company recently guided for 70% sales growth in fiscal 2028, well above the 45% growth analysts had previously expected.

The disconnect gets stranger when you compare Nvidia to its own sector. Nvidia shares are up 22% in 2026, the second-best performance among the Magnificent Seven behind only Apple. That sounds strong until you look at the rest of the semiconductor industry, which is up nearly 76% this year. Rivals Intel and AMD have each gained more than 180%, and memory chipmaker Micron has led the pack. Nvidia currently ranks as the fifth-worst performer within its own sector index, which as a whole trades at roughly 20 times estimated profit, still cheaper than Nvidia carried a year ago, but meaningfully richer than where Nvidia sits today. Nvidia’s CEO addressed this tension directly at a recent industry conference, describing the company as what he called the world’s first and only growth value stock, arguing it is simultaneously growing rapidly and becoming more undervalued at the same time, a combination he characterized as widely misunderstood by the market.

Part of what’s weighing on the valuation is margin pressure. Nvidia posted a 75% gross margin last quarter, but that figure is projected to shrink to below 72% in the fourth quarter before recovering, driven largely by rising costs for components like memory chips. There’s also a competitive undercurrent building. Several of Nvidia’s largest customers, including Meta and Alphabet, have been developing their own AI chips in-house, and as more hyperscalers pursue that path, some market strategists expect Nvidia’s dominant market position to erode gradually over time, which would put continued pressure on margins rather than allow them to recover.

Not everyone reads the setup as bearish, however. Other market observers argue the more relevant question is what would actually need to happen for Nvidia’s current valuation to be justified, either a meaningful pullback in hyperscaler AI spending or a regulatory shift that slows AI development materially, and neither scenario currently looks likely. Under that view, a stock priced as though slower growth is already baked in, while actual demand signals continue pointing higher, represents a favorable entry point rather than a warning sign.

For investors tracking the broader AI infrastructure and semiconductor supply chain, this divergence between Nvidia and its smaller, faster-moving peers is worth watching closely, a topic we’ve followed since the earlier days of the sector’s AI-driven repricing. Smaller companies supplying components, materials, and specialized hardware into this same ecosystem are, in effect, operating in a market where investors are actively debating whether the dominant player’s premium is deserved or overextended, a debate whose outcome will likely ripple through valuations across the entire chip supply chain, not just Nvidia’s own stock.

The AI Jobs Debate Is More Complicated Than It Looks

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The early success of Meta’s Muse AI agent has reignited a question that has been building all year: if AI tools can perform tasks inside a company quickly and cheaply, how much longer do companies keep paying humans to do the same work? Apollo Global Management’s chief economist addressed that tension directly in a recent interview, suggesting the labor market impact of tools like Muse is still a waiting game, one where the full effect simply hasn’t shown up in the data yet.

The case for concern is real and growing. Block, the payments company led by Jack Dorsey, cut 40% of its staff this year. Layoffs have swept through Amazon, Dell, Oracle, Coinbase, Cloudflare, and Meta itself, several of which we’ve tracked closely as part of the broader corporate efficiency wave reshaping how companies think about headcount in the AI era. Uber recently announced it would cut 10% of its workforce to capture what it described as significant efficiencies. These are not struggling companies making defensive cuts, they are profitable, growing businesses choosing to operate with fewer people even as they invest heavily in AI capability, a pattern that has now repeated across enough companies to look structural rather than coincidental.

Staffing and workforce advisory firms sit closest to this shift and are worth watching as a real-time indicator of how it plays out. Companies like Kelly Services and Resources Connection, both providers of staffing and flexible workforce solutions, along with Information Services Group, which advises corporations on technology sourcing and digital transformation decisions, are positioned to see these dynamics well before they show up in national jobs data. If companies are genuinely substituting AI for headcount at scale, these firms would likely see it first in shifting client demand for permanent placements versus flexible or project-based talent.

But the labor market data complicates the doom-and-gloom narrative considerably. Through August, the US economy added roughly 640,000 net nonfarm payroll jobs, averaging about 80,000 new positions per month, numbers that don’t reflect a labor market in collapse. Apollo’s economist made a useful distinction on this point, noting that while tools like Muse will genuinely eliminate some jobs, the new products and business activity AI enables will also create employment elsewhere, meaning this isn’t simply a displacement story, it’s a broader story about how AI reshapes business dynamics and, ultimately, aggregate employment in ways that cut in both directions simultaneously.

There’s an added wrinkle worth watching closely. A recent Gartner survey projects that by 2029, roughly 30% of employees laid off due to AI will need to be rehired, at meaningfully higher cost than their original positions carried. That’s a notable admission that some of this year’s efficiency-driven cuts may prove to be overcorrections, companies discovering that certain roles genuinely required human judgment or oversight AI couldn’t fully replace, and having to pay a premium to bring that expertise back.

For investors, this debate is no longer background noise, it’s showing up directly in the data that moves markets. Monthly jobs reports, which we’ve covered closely as they’ve swung between blowout beats and unexpected losses this year, are taking on greater weight precisely because AI-driven labor market shifts are becoming a genuine wildcard in how those numbers get interpreted. For companies in the small and microcap space, this dynamic cuts two ways worth watching. Smaller companies with leaner existing headcount may be structurally better positioned to adopt AI efficiently without the large-scale layoffs playing out at bigger firms, while companies specifically building AI tools, agents, and workflow automation software for business customers sit squarely in the path of demand created by this exact shift. Whether AI ultimately proves to be a net job destroyer or a net job reshuffler remains genuinely unresolved, and that uncertainty itself is becoming a market-moving variable heading into the final months of the year.

MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – Heading Into 4Q After Strong Clinical Progress

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Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Phase 2 Extension Stage Has Begun Treatment At US Sites. MAIA began treating patients at three US sites in the Part C Expansion Phase of its Phase 2 THIO-101 trial. The trial tests ateganosine (aka THIO) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and had completed the planned patient enrollment at international sites worldwide. Two additional US sites are expected to open during 2026.

Initial Data Shows Consistent Efficacy. In June 2026, MAIA announced initial efficacy data from the ongoing Phase 2 THIO-101 Part C Expansion Stage. Patients with at least one post-treatment evaluation by tumor scan showed a disease control rate (DCR) of 90.5% in the evaluable population. We believe that data consistent with Parts A and B could allow the company to apply for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review.


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Titan International (TWI) – To Sell ITM Business

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Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Sale. Titan International entered into an agreement to sell its Italtractor ITM undercarriage business. The sale is expected to generate cash value of approximately $285 million, which includes a $207 million initial purchase price, $6 million of potential earnout proceeds, $23 million of customary adjustments based on ITM’s net assets and financial position at closing, and $49 million of dividends, consisting of $38 million received in recent years and $11 million expected prior to closing. The deal is expected to close in early January.

Focus. We expect Titan to use the proceeds to sharpen its focus on the core global wheel and tire operations serving the agriculture, construction, and consumer markets. Investments are expected to be focused on the Company’s highest growth opportunities and may include the purchase of adjacent businesses. A portion of the proceeds may be used to reduce outstanding net debt, which totaled $413 million as of June 30th.


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