GDEV (GDEV) – Profitability Momentum In Focus Ahead Of Q2 Results


Thursday, August 20, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results preview. We expect GDEV’s second-quarter results to reflect continued disciplined user acquisition spending and a focus on profitable growth. For context, Q1 revenue increased 2% to $99 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 15% to $18 million, benefiting from a 13% decline in selling and marketing expense, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. The return to top-line growth, following a revenue decline in fiscal 2025, is encouraging.

Facing a difficult revenue comparison. Q2 will lap a relatively strong year-ago quarter, when revenue increased 13% to $120 million, driven in part by elevated performance marketing investment. As such, we believe the more important read-through will be the company’s ability to sustain engagement and monetization while maintaining its more disciplined approach to marketing expenditures.


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Trump Paused 50% Tariffs on Canada Hours Before They Hit and the Markets Barely Moved

President Trump announced late Tuesday night he is pausing a scheduled 50% tariff on Canadian goods just hours before it was set to take effect at midnight, following eleventh-hour talks between US officials and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s team. Trump posted that the three-day pause reflects an agreement in principle between the two countries, subject to finalizing formal documents. Notably, US equity futures were essentially unchanged on the news, a muted reaction that tells its own story about how markets are actually reading this development.

Stocks were already under pressure heading into Wednesday, weathering a losing week driven by rising bond yields and oil prices, compounded by a Tuesday tech selloff that spread overnight into Asian markets, where Japan’s Nikkei fell 3% and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 5%. Against that backdrop, a last-minute tariff pause registering as a non-event for futures markets is itself informative. Trade policy experts have noted the Canadian tariffs, even if implemented, would likely have had limited direct economic impact given the narrower scope of affected goods compared to broader tariff actions earlier in the year. What markets appear to be reading instead is the signal this sends ahead of the larger prize: negotiations over the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, the actual trade framework governing the bulk of cross-border commerce among the three countries, which remains the more consequential outcome still to be determined.

This tariff pause arrives during an already data-heavy stretch for markets. The Federal Reserve released minutes from its July FOMC meeting the same day, offering additional detail on the internal debate over inflation and the path for interest rates that we detailed in our recent coverage of the divided committee heading into Jackson Hole. Separately, a wave of retail earnings from Target, Lowe’s, and TJX Companies is set to give investors a clearer read on consumer spending trends through the spring and summer, adding yet another variable competing for market attention this week.

For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, trade policy volatility of this kind carries outsized relevance. Smaller manufacturers, industrial suppliers, and companies with meaningful cross-border supply chains into Canada are directly exposed to tariff uncertainty in a way large multinational companies, with more diversified sourcing and pricing power, often are not. A three-day pause is not resolution, it is a postponement, and the underlying uncertainty over how USMCA negotiations ultimately land remains an open variable for exactly the kind of domestically focused small cap companies that make up a large share of the Russell 2000. Investors in this space should treat this development as one to watch closely rather than a settled outcome, since the finalized documents Trump referenced, and the broader trade framework they sit within, are what will actually determine whether this becomes a durable resolution or simply a delay before the next deadline.

VivoPower International PLC (VIVO) – De-Risked Nordic AI Infrastructure Pure-Play


Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

George Proost, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Shareholder debt fully retired, materially improving credit quality. On August 3, 2026, VivoPower eliminated 100% of its $28.8m shareholder debt principal owed to AWN Holdings. $16.5 million was converted under PIPE 2 and $12.3 million was repaid in cash. The move removes the associated interest expense and materially improves credit quality ahead of the Nordic AI buildout, leaving no principal obligation to AWN.

PIPE secured to fund the AI conversion. A $50 million PIPE priced at US$7.50 per share on July 29, 2026, was led by Blue Sky Capital, alongside Nordic, EU, and GCC institutional and family-office investors. Proceeds are directed at the Mo i Rana AI data center conversion in Norway and further debt reduction.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Moderna Doubled Today on a Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough

Moderna (Nasdaq: MRNA) shares more than doubled Wednesday after the company and Merck (NYSE: MRK) announced their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine met its primary and key secondary endpoints in a pivotal Phase 3 trial, the first positive late-stage result ever recorded for an individualized neoantigen cancer therapy and for any mRNA-based cancer treatment. The rally lifted biotech stocks broadly, with investors treating the result as validation for an entirely new category of oncology treatment that has been in development for more than a decade.

The trial, called INTerpath-001, enrolled 1,137 patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer. Patients received either the vaccine, known as intismeran autogene, alongside Merck’s Keytruda, or Keytruda alone. The combination produced statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in recurrence-free survival, the trial’s primary endpoint, along with a secondary measure of how long patients went without their cancer spreading to distant parts of the body. No new safety signals emerged.

How the Vaccine Actually Works

What makes intismeran genuinely novel is that it is not a single, mass-produced product. Each dose is manufactured individually based on the specific mutational fingerprint of a patient’s own tumor, sequenced from surgically removed tissue, and designed to train the immune system to recognize as many as 34 distinct targets unique to that patient’s cancer. Neoantigen vaccines built on this personalized model have been discussed as a theoretical possibility in oncology for years. This is the first randomized Phase 3 trial to actually prove the concept works in a large patient population, which is precisely why the result is being described across the biotech industry as a landmark moment rather than an incremental clinical update. Notably, the trial was stopped at its first interim analysis, meaning the question of whether the vaccine ultimately extends overall survival, not just delays recurrence, remains open and could take years to fully answer. The companies have indicated they intend to pursue regulatory filings quickly, describing a timeline measured in months rather than years.

What It Means for Smaller Biotech Companies

For investors tracking small and microcap biotech, a validation event of this scale rarely stays contained to the two companies involved. Proof that personalized, sequencing-based cancer vaccines can succeed in a randomized Phase 3 trial provides real clinical and regulatory validation for an entire mechanism, and that validation tends to lift sentiment and capital allocation across every smaller company pursuing related or adjacent immuno-oncology approaches, not just the two large caps that generated today’s headline. Smaller oncology-focused biotechs, including companies like MAIA Biotechnology, both advancing their own differentiated approaches to hard-to-treat cancers, operate in exactly the kind of therapeutic environment where a breakthrough of this magnitude tends to draw renewed institutional attention to the broader category, even when their own mechanisms differ meaningfully from Moderna and Merck’s personalized vaccine platform.

This pattern is consistent with what we detailed in our recent look at the current biotech catalyst environment, where clinical breakthroughs at any point in the sector, whether at a large pharma partnership or a clinical-stage microcap, tend to reprice risk and opportunity across the entire space rather than staying isolated to a single company’s stock.

Anthropic Could Top SpaceX as the Largest IPO of 2026

The race for the largest IPO of 2026 has a new challenger, and it hasn’t even filed a public prospectus yet. Prediction market data from Polymarket shows Anthropic rapidly closing the gap with SpaceX for the title of the year’s biggest public offering, driven by revenue growth that is accelerating faster than most analysts had modeled just months ago. Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s annualized revenue for 2026 is now on track to top $65 billion, up sharply from a $47 billion pace in May, positioning the company for a potential fourth quarter market debut.

Notably, OpenAI, Anthropic’s chief rival and another company that could plausibly go public later this year, is not currently registering as a serious contender in the same prediction market data, despite its own scale and continued speculation about a near-term listing.

SpaceX Still Holds the Crown, for Now

For context on what Anthropic would actually need to beat, SpaceX priced its historic offering at $135 per share on June 11, selling 555.6 million shares and valuing the company at $1.78 trillion. The stock opened for trading the following day around $150 and climbed steadily through the session on heavy institutional and retail demand, closing its first day at $160.95, a 19.2% gain that instantly pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization to $2.1 trillion. Shares later peaked near $225 before falling to lows around $104 as investors grew concerned about upcoming lockup expirations and the scale of the company’s capital expenditure plans, a volatility pattern we detailed closely in our coverage of the debut itself. SpaceX has since recovered to roughly $146 a share, valuing the company at $1.93 trillion.

One market strategist covering the name recently argued that betting against Elon Musk has historically been a losing strategy and expects that to remain true here as well, while cautioning investors to prepare for continued sharp swings in either direction.

What the Anthropic Comparison Actually Reveals

Anthropic is currently valued at approximately $1 trillion in private markets, compared to $894 billion for OpenAI, according to Yahoo Finance private market tracking data. That $65 billion annualized revenue run rate is the more important number in this story, since prediction markets are not simply betting on company size, they are betting on whether Anthropic’s growth trajectory can support an offering large enough to eclipse SpaceX’s historic debut, an event we covered as it happened back on June 12.

For investors watching the 2026 IPO calendar, and by extension the broader capital rotation such offerings tend to trigger across public markets, this is worth tracking closely for a specific reason. When Anthropic filed confidentially for its IPO this summer at a reported valuation approaching $965 billion, we noted that the AI capital cycle had entered a genuinely new phase. A fourth quarter debut that could rival or exceed SpaceX’s own historic listing would represent the clearest confirmation yet of that thesis, and would likely reignite the same kind of capital rotation into smaller AI infrastructure and services companies that followed SpaceX’s own debut in June.

30-Year Treasury Yields Just Hit Their Highest Level Since 2007. Four Forces Are Colliding at Once.

The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.327% on Tuesday, its highest level in 19 years, as stalled talks to end the US-Iran war and renewed fears of escalation pushed oil prices above $90 a barrel and reignited inflation concerns across global markets. The benchmark 10-year yield rose to 4.739%. The selloff was not contained to US markets either, spreading to Japan, where the 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year peak, and to Europe, where Germany’s 10-year Bund yield touched its highest level since 2011 and France’s 10-year yield reached a 17-year high.

The proximate trigger is the same conflict that has driven energy markets and inflation expectations for much of the year. Iran told officials it would shift to a fully offensive military posture after negotiations toward a permanent end to the war stalled, while Washington has ruled out extending the ceasefire agreement reached in June. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut, the best-case scenario according to strategists covering the region is a prolonged standoff that continues restricting crude flows, while the worst case is a resumption of active fighting.

This Is Not Just an Oil Story

What makes this move genuinely notable is that oil and geopolitics are only part of the explanation. Analysts covering global rates point to at least three additional structural forces pushing long-term yields higher independent of the Iran conflict. The surge in borrowing from AI hyperscalers, whose capital expenditure plans have accelerated sharply throughout 2026, is forcing bond buyers to demand higher returns to absorb the flood of new debt hitting markets. A rising US budget deficit is compounding that pressure, with recent Treasury auctions drawing unusual attention, a 10-year note auction clearing at 4.683%, its highest yield in 19 years, and a 30-year bond auction stopping at 5.216%, a 25-year peak.

Notably, one strategist covering the move specifically named Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s shift toward a more opaque communication style as a contributing factor to rising yields, a shift in tone that has drawn scrutiny ahead of his upcoming Jackson Hole address and the market confusion that followed his July press conference. Reduced clarity from the Fed appears to be compounding, rather than easing, the uncertainty already priced into long-duration debt.

For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, this combination of forces is directly consequential. Small and microcap companies carry disproportionately more variable-rate debt than large cap peers, and a 30-year yield at its highest level since 2007 signals that the higher-cost-of-capital environment weighing on smaller businesses is not easing, it is intensifying. One market strategist noted that for much of the past 15 years, investors operated in a market where stable-to-falling rates consistently supported higher stock prices, but recent Treasury auctions suggest that landscape is genuinely shifting, with investors increasingly focused on the growing scale of US debt and questions about fiscal discipline. For small cap investors, that shift deserves close attention heading into the fall.

Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX) – Reinvention Creates a Path to Sustainable Earnings Growth


Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. Our constructive view reflects the company’s multiyear transformation through the Lexmark acquisition, expansion of IT Solutions and Digital Services, and continued focus on operating efficiency. We believe these initiatives can moderate revenue declines, improve profitability and cash generation, and ultimately support a multiyear earnings recovery and valuation re-rating.

Lexmark Integration Positioned to Drive Significant Profit Growth. The acquisition of Lexmark expands Xerox’s global scale and is expected to generate at least $350 million in gross cost synergies by the end of 2027. In our view, it provides a clear path toward ameaningful improvement in operating leverage and competitive positioning.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI) – Double-Digit Revenue Growth, Improving Margins Signal Operating Leverage


Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

George Proost, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 revenue growth. QuoteMedia reported Q2 revenue of $5.45 million, up 11% YoY from $4.93 million, although below our $5.63 million estimate. The quarter marked the company’s second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth, supported by new client wins and expansion within existing enterprise relationships.

Improving profitability. Gross margin increased to 50% from 46% in the year-earlier period, while adj. EBITDA increased to $241,000 from $99,000. The net loss narrowed substantially to $362,000 from $854,000. We believe the improving results provide early evidence of the operating leverage inherent in the company’s business model.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Everyone Sees the Small Cap Rally. Almost No One Is Buying It

Small-cap stocks just delivered their best first half on record, and almost nobody is talking about where the money went next.

U.S. small caps returned 22.93% in the first half of 2026, outpacing large caps at 9.55% by the widest margin in history for that stretch. It is the kind of number that normally sends investors scrambling to add exposure. Yet the flow of capital into small-cap funds tells a different story, one that raises an obvious question: if small caps are winning this decisively, why hasn’t the money followed?

The data shows a real disconnect. Small-cap ETFs pulled in roughly $7 billion during the first half of the year. Large-cap ETFs, by comparison, absorbed $309 billion over the same period. On the mutual fund side, small-cap funds have seen about $8 billion in net inflows year to date, a modest turnaround after $8 billion in outflows the year before. Actively managed small-cap funds have fared even worse, continuing to lose assets as investors keep shifting toward passive strategies more broadly.

In other words, small caps are outperforming while investors remain largely on the sidelines. That gap between performance and participation is unusual, and some market strategists see it as meaningful. State Street has pointed to the lag as a sign the rally may have room to keep running, arguing that a rotation this significant with so little capital chasing it is not the profile of a crowded trade. If allocators eventually catch up to the performance numbers, the argument goes, the current move could extend further rather than reverse.

Not everyone is convinced. BlackRock has reportedly kept a more cautious stance on small caps as a group, citing ongoing uncertainty around financing conditions and the broader macro backdrop. Smaller companies tend to carry more floating-rate debt and less balance sheet cushion than their large-cap counterparts, which makes them more sensitive to shifts in interest rates and credit availability. That sensitivity cuts both ways. It can amplify gains when conditions turn favorable, but it can just as easily amplify losses if the environment shifts.

There is also a more speculative data point worth noting with some caution. MoneyFlows, a firm that tracks proprietary money-flow signals, claims that nearly 98% of its tracked equity inflows this year have gone into companies with market capitalizations under $300 billion, which it frames as evidence of institutional accumulation building beneath the surface. Unlike the ETF and mutual fund flow data from sources such as Morningstar and State Street, this is a promotional research product, and the claim should be weighed accordingly.

What is clear is that small caps have already made their move on performance. Whether capital flows catch up, stall, or reverse from here may say more about the durability of this rally than the first-half numbers themselves. For investors watching the space, the next few months of fund flow data could matter as much as the earnings results that got small caps here in the first place.

Fulcrum Therapeutics Is Becoming a Migraine Drug Company. Here Is How

Fulcrum Therapeutics (Nasdaq: FULC) announced Monday it has entered into a definitive agreement to merge with privately held Slate Medicines in an all-stock transaction. The combined company will operate under the Slate Medicines name and pivot entirely away from Fulcrum’s original rare hematological disease pipeline toward Slate’s portfolio of next-generation migraine therapeutics. Alongside the merger, the companies announced an oversubscribed $245 million private placement from a syndicate of healthcare investors, expected to fund the combined operations into 2029.

This deal follows one of the more difficult stretches in Fulcrum’s history, and understanding that context is essential to understanding why this transaction exists at all. In June, Fulcrum discontinued development of pociredir, its lead drug candidate for sickle cell disease, after the FDA raised concerns about the drug’s benefit-risk profile in a recent meeting. Regulators specifically flagged an unexpectedly high rate of secondary hematologic malignancies observed in patients treated with a chemically related PRC2 inhibitor from another company, a drug that its own manufacturer had voluntarily pulled from shelves worldwide earlier this year. Fulcrum’s stock fell more than 50% on the news, and the company subsequently laid off 48 of its 57 employees, roughly 85% of its workforce, while beginning a formal review of strategic alternatives that included a merger, business combination, or other transaction. As of March 31, Fulcrum held $333.3 million in cash and marketable securities, enough runway to keep the company operating into 2029 on its own. Separately, and worth noting for full transparency, a law firm publicly announced last week it is investigating potential securities law violations tied to Fulcrum’s disclosures around the pociredir discontinuation. That investigation is ongoing and its outcome, if any, is not yet known.

Slate’s lead candidate, SLTE-1009, is a clinical-stage subcutaneous monoclonal antibody targeting PACAP and VIP pathways, developed as a potentially best-in-class preventative treatment for migraine. Migraine remains a large and underserved therapeutic market, and antibody-based preventative treatments targeting neuropeptide pathways have become one of the more actively pursued mechanisms in the space over the past several years.

A Familiar Small Cap Biotech Pattern

This transaction follows a structure we have covered before on ChannelChek: a publicly traded biotech whose original clinical program failed, leaving it with a Nasdaq listing, meaningful cash reserves, and no viable path forward on its own, becomes the vehicle through which a well-funded private biotech gains public market access without pursuing a traditional IPO. Rather than navigating the lengthy IPO process independently, Slate secures a public listing, a syndicate of institutional capital, and immediate resources to advance its lead asset, all in a single coordinated transaction.

For investors tracking this space, the Fulcrum-Slate combination is a useful reminder that a failed clinical trial does not automatically end a company’s story, particularly when meaningful cash remains on the balance sheet. It also underscores a genuine risk worth weighing carefully: shareholders who bought into Fulcrum’s original rare disease thesis are now effectively invested in an entirely different company, pursuing an unrelated therapeutic area, following a transaction that arrives while questions about the prior program’s disclosures remain unresolved. Reverse mergers of this type can create real value when the incoming asset is genuinely differentiated, but investors should evaluate the new company on its own clinical and commercial merits rather than assuming continuity with the business they originally invested in.

Xcel Brands (XELB) – Commercialization Advances: Building Toward a Second-Half Revenue Inflection


Monday, August 17, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

George Proost, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results were softer than expected, largely due to timing. Revenue was approximately $1.1 million, compared with $1.3 million in the prior-year period, reflecting the Judith Ripka divestiture and delays associated with QVC’s bankruptcy and vendor-credit issues. Importantly, the QVC-related disruptions appear to have largely been resolved.

Commercialization remains the key story as the creator portfolio moves into the market. With the portfolio’s social media reach having expanded from roughly 5 million to more than 46 million followers, we believe the company has assembled a compelling audience from which to build consumer brands. The next several quarters should provide evidence regarding Xcel’s ability to convert that audience into sustainable royalty revenue.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Star Equity Holdings, Inc. (STRR) – Second Quarter Results And An Acquisition


Monday, August 17, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. In the second quarter, Business Services delivered modest revenue growth, with gross profit down slightly year-over-year, while Energy Services posted strong year-over-year gains in revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting activity increases and new client wins in the geothermal and mining industries. Building Solutions remained below management expectations due to market softness and contract timing.

2Q26 Results. Second quarter 2026 revenue was $54.9 million versus a pro forma $59.2 million in 2Q25. We were at $64 million. The delta was in Building Solutions, which continues to operate in a challenging environment. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.2 million versus a pro forma $8.5 million, which included a $5.5 million gain. Star reported an adjusted loss of $0.15/sh in 2Q26 compared to EPS of $0.20/sh in 2Q25.


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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Euroseas (ESEA) – Second Quarter 2026 Review and Outlook


Monday, August 17, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second Quarter Financial Results. Euroseas Ltd. reported solid second quarter 2026 financial performance supported by elevated charter rates, high fleet utilization, and disciplined cost management. While net revenues declined modestly to $56.5 million compared to $57.2 million in the prior year period due to a smaller average fleet size, adj. EBITDA increased to $40.1 million compared to $39.3 million during the second quarter of 2025, and adj. earnings per share increased to $4.70 from $4.20. We had projected net revenue of $56.5 million and adj. EBITDA of $40.1 million. 

Outlook Remains Constructive. In our viewthe near-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong charter rates, tight vessel availability in the feeder and intermediate segments of the containership market, and significant charter coverage through 2027. While market conditions could moderate as the supply of vessels increases and Red Sea routes potentially normalize, we think the feeder and intermediate segments are relatively well positioned versus larger vessel classes. Euroseas’ strong charter coverage of 96.0% in 2026, 81.3% in 2027, and 46.8% in 2028 is expected to insulate the company from any volatility in the market.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.