cpereira@noblefcm.com, Author at Channelchek

The GEO Group (GEO) – Second Quarter Results Released

Posted on August 10, 2023August 10, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, August 10, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $593.9 million, up from $588.2 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $129.0 million, EPS was $0.20, and adjusted EPS $0.24. In the year ago period, GEO reported $132.3 million, $0.37, and $0.42, respectively. We had forecast $587 million, $124.1 million, $0.20, and $0.20, respectively.

ISAP? A key factor in 2H23 performance will be the number of participants under the ISAP program. Numbers have fallen for longer than management had originally expected but recent policy initiatives should result in participant stabilization, if not increases in 2H23.

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Townsquare Media (TSQ) – A Surprising Reaction To An In-Line Quarter

Posted on August 10, 2023August 10, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In-line Q2 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $121.2 million and adj. EBITDA of $28.6 million, both of which were in line with our estimates. The company’s revenue performance, which was roughly flat yoy, was among the best in the industry, on average down 4%.

Favorable digital outlook. Q2 digital revenue grew 4% from the prior year period and comprised 52% of total company revenue, more than two times the industry average. Notably, Ignite grew revenue by 11% and its operating profit margin were an impressive 35%. Importantly, we view 2023 as a year of investment for Townsquare Interactive, with revenue and margin growth expected in 2024.

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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – A Solid 2Q23 Beat

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another Excellent Quarter. Driven by expansion of existing programs, new awards, and recompete wins, V2X reported excellent results for 2Q23. Revenue of $977.9 million was up 10.2% on a pro forma basis, and well above our $905 million forecast. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $76.4 million, versus our $64.5 million estimate. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.01 compared to our $0.74 estimate.

Opportunity Remains Robust. V2X was awarded approximately $2.1 billion of awards in the quarter, with a book-to-bill of 2.2x. Backlog grew 10% to $13 billion. The Company has $5 billion of bids awaiting award and we believe V2X is well positioned to win its fair share. The overall market opportunity exceeds $160 billion.

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Salem Media Group (SALM) – Its Back Is Against The Wall, But…

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Soft Q2 results. Revenues of $65.8 million were better than our $64.2 million estimate, driven by improved Digital Media and Publishing revenue. Adj. EBITDA of $2.7 million was below our $3.8 million estimate, reflecting higher than expected expenses as the company continues heightened investments to ramp its digital businesses.

Lowering full year 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. Flowing through the Q2 results and our Q3 and Q4 revisions, we are largely maintaining our full year 2023 revenue estimate at $261.6 million and lowering our full year 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate from $18.5 million to $16.1 million. We are maintaining our full year 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate of $26.9 million at this time, which conservatively anticipates an influx of roughly $6.8 million in high margin Political advertising.

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Saga Communications, Inc. (SGA) – The Prettiest One At The Dance

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations, television stations and state radio networks. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 26 markets, including 61 FM and 30 AM radio stations, 3 state radio networks, 2 farm radio networks, 5 television stations and 4 low power television stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio and television stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Classic Hits, Adult Contemporary, Active Rock, Oldies, News/Talk, Country and Classical. Saga’s television stations are affiliated with CBS and Fox in Joplin, MO; CBS in Greenville, MS; ABC, Fox, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in Victoria, TX. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on the NYSE Amex under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. Solid Q2 revenue of $29.2 million was 1.7% better than our estimate of $28.7 million. Adj. EBITDA in quarter was $5.8 million, beating our estimate of $5.2 million by 12%. While total revenue was down a modest 2.2% year over year, there were some strong greenshoots: National advertising increased 12%, Non-Traditional Revenue increased 10% and Digital revenue increased an impressive 17%.

Favorable digital growth trajectory. The company’s digital segment had a strong performance and now comprises 9% of total company revenue. Notably, e-commerce was particularly strong, with revenue growth of over 100%. Additionally, the company is expanding its online newspaper, Clarksville Now, in two new markets. We believe the company’s favorable digital initiatives could accelerate digital revenue growth over the next several quarters.

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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – 2Q23 Reported With Trial Enrollment Making Progress

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second Quarter Reported With Trial Progress. MAIA reported a 2Q23 loss of $(4.5) million or $(0.35) per share, consistent with our expectations. The company gave updates to its Phase 2 THIO-101 clinical trial testing THIO in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), including continued enrollment and survival of patients treated to date. Cash as of June 30, 2023 was $9.1 million.

THIO-101 Trial Update. The THIO-101 trial tests THIO in combination with Libtayo, (cemiplimab, a PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor from Regeneron) giving two mechanisms of action against the cancer cell. Patients in the trial have progressive or relapsing non-small cell lung cancer after being treated with a checkpoint inhibitor. As of July 2023, 35 patients have been enrolled, an increase over the 29 patients last reported in June 2023. We expect top-line Overall Response Rate data in late fall (3Q/4Q) 2023.

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FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) – Upping Factory Utilization and Other Business Notes

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Factory Utilization. FAT Brands has completed the rollout of cookie offerings at burger portfolio restaurants nationwide, including Fatburger, Johnny Rockets, and Elevation Burger. While consumers will benefit from additional menu choices, the real key is the potential for increased utilization of the manufacturing facility. Recall, this is an asset management will look to monetize and higher utilization will result in increased value for the asset.

Great American Cookie. The cookie concept has opened its 400th location, and operates in 31 states and five countries around the world. In the last two years, the brand has experienced accelerated growth, opening 73 new locations and entering new states such as Alaska, Arizona, Illinois and New Mexico. Just like the cookie roll out to the burger concepts, each additional Great American Cookie location adds to factory utilization.

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EuroDry (EDRY) – Shipping rates fall, a vessel is detained, operating costs rise

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results continue to slide in response to falling shipping rates and a ship detention. Average TCE rates, which showed signs of improving in April, fell in May and June to an average quarterly rate of $12,179/day versus $23,490/day. Eurodry reported that one of its ships was detained for 35 days (out of service 48 days) due to alleged pollution violations resulting in the cancellation of a high-priced charter.

Operating costs rose. Total operating costs ($12.7m versus $10.2m) rose sharply. Higher voyage expenses are related to the ship detention. Management described the rise in vessel operating expenses relative to last year as due to “inflationary increases” although that explanation does not adequately explain the quarter-over-quarter increase ($12.7m versus $11.8m) in costs.

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

More ICE Funding? CoreCivic had a 45% increase in ICE populations from the ending of Title 42 through July 31, 2023. Further increases in populations will partly depend on funding. Already, DHS has reprogrammed existing funds and, reportedly, will seek $2 billion in supplemental funds to address shortfalls related to border security. The additional funds, if approved, are expected to fund detention spaces, alternative-to-detention tracking programs, and transportation work. Such an increase should benefit CoreCivic, in our view.

And More For Fiscal 2024? In late July, the Homeland Security bill for fiscal 2024 was approved by the full committee in the House. The bill provides $3.55 billion for custody operations, which is more than ever previously appropriated, to fund an average daily ICE detainee population of 41,500, a significant increase from the 34,000 level. While much negotiations remain to be had, such a funding increase would be a strong positive.

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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Second Quarter First Look and Management Transition

Posted on August 9, 2023August 9, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second Quarter Results. ACCO reported net sales of $493.6 million compared to $521.0 million last year. We projected revenue of $490 million. Adverse foreign exchange reduced sales by $0.8 million, or less than 1%. Comparable sales fell 5.1%. ACCO had net income of $26.4 million, or $0.27 per diluted, compared to $39.4 million, or $0.40, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.38, above the Company’s outlook. We estimated net income of $20 million or diluted EPS of $0.21.

Change in Guidance. ACCO is changing their outlook for the full year 2023, as sales are expected to be down 1-3% from the previous 4-7%, including a 1.5% positive impact from foreign exchange. The Company is maintaining its adjusted EPS outlook ($1.08-$1.12 range), is raising its free cash flow outlook to at least $110 million from a prior $100 million, and is lowering its expected consolidated leverage ratio of 3.3x to 3.5x from 3.5x to 3.7x. All of these are positive developments that stem from the Company’s restructuring process announced earlier this year, in our view.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Reports Second Quarter Results

Posted on August 8, 2023August 8, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q23 Results. Results came in above expectations. Revenue totaled $256.9 million, up 14.6% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $21.6 million, up from $17.7 million in 2Q22. GAAP EPS loss was $0.02 and adjusted EPS was $0.09, compared to a EPS loss of $0.04 and adjusted EPS of $0.07, respectively, a year ago. We had forecasted $235 million, $16.5 million, $(0.03), and $0.06, respectively.

Solid Organic Growth In KGS. The Government Solutions Segment saw overall revenue increase 22.1% to $204.8 million. Organic growth for KGS grew 17.1% in the quarter, with organic growth across all businesses within KGS and notable increases in the Space and Satellite, Turbine Technologies, Microwave products, and C5ISR units.

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Gray Television (GTN) – Leading The Industry

Posted on August 8, 2023August 8, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $813 million, better than our estimate of $802 million; adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $225 million, beating our estimate of $187 million by 20%. Notably, Local and National core advertising revenues performed strongly, increasing in the low single-digits from the prior year period.

Positive momentum. In our view, the company’s Local and National core advertising growth was impressive, with many industry peers reporting declines. Notably, management highlighted that National and Local advertising are pacing up in Q3 as well. We believe the company has favorable operating momentum, given its resilient advertising revenues and expected influx of political revenue later this year and in 2024.

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Energy Fuels (UUUU) – Progress one quarter at a time

Posted on August 8, 2023August 8, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. Energy Fuels also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and is ramping up commercial-scale production of REE carbonate. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, as well as REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Energy Fuels reported 2023-2Q results in line with expectations as rare earth element carbonite sales expand. Uranium sales to a major nuclear utility kicked in and rare earth carbonate sales accelerated. Of note, uranium sales were done at an operating cost of $26.40/lb. below the price in our models. Also notable was an increase in REE sales after several quarters of sales being limited by monzanite supply issues.

With sales still in the early stages, operating line items were fairly predictable. Of course, the Energy Fuel story has never been about near-term results. Instead, the stock moves on corporate developments. And, while there have been some setbacks (REE supply issues, share dilution, foreign uranium supply competition), the company has made steady progress in recent quarters towards its goals.

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