Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Updated guidance reflects reduced production expectations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 31, 2024

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Management updated its 2023 guidance. The adjustment reflects a drop in production expectations. New guidance is significantly below the 9,700 boe/d production flow reported from the field on November 9, 2023. The decline may represent a sharper decline rate from initial production rates than had previously been expected by management. The drop in production lead to a sharp reduction in projected Adjusted Funds Flow and Free Funds Flow.

Management also sharply reduced its 2024 production estimates. New guidance calls for 2024 production that is only slightly higher than newly revised 2023 guidance despite the drilling of 14-15 new wells and an expected reduction in curtailment. While it is possible that management is simply being conservative, it may also reflect well decline rates as discussed above. 


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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – New Cost Reduction Plan

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 31, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Plan. ACCO announced a multi-year restructuring and cost savings program, with anticipated annualized pre-tax cost savings of at least $60 million. The Company expects to record a pre-tax restructuring charge for the period ended December 31, 2023 of approximately $13 million. This is in addition to a $9 million charge relating to the closure of the Sidney, NY facility. Total cash expenditures are expected to be $26 million with cash outflows of $18 million in 2024 and $8 million in 2025. The restructuring will better position the Company for long-term sustainable profitable growth, in our view, adding to the Company’s 2023 improvement in margins.

Details. The program incorporates initiatives to simplify and delayer the Company’s operating structure and reduce costs through headcount reductions, supply chain optimization, global footprint rationalization, and better leveraging of sourcing capabilities.


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Snail (SNAL) – Quarterly Preview

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Tweaking Q4 estimates. We are lowering our Q4 revenue forecast from $38 million to $31.6 million, reflecting deferred revenue that will be recognized in 2024. Despite the deferred revenue, we are conservatively maintaining our 2024 revenue forecast.

Engaged userbase. The company held the ARKade Ambassador program, an influencer initiative, from October 25 through year end. The initiative coincided with the release of Ark: Survival Ascended on Steam and drove significant viewer engagement. In total, the ARKade content received viewership of 186,509,155 minutes. 


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Moving Past a Challenging Fourth Quarter; ARLP Provides its 2024 Outlook

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, January 30, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results. Alliance reported fourth-quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $185.4 million and $0.88, respectively, compared to $296.9 million and $1.63 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $226.6 million and $1.02. On a full year basis, Alliance generated EBITDA and EPU of $933.1 million and $4.81, respectively, compared to our estimates of $969.9 million and $4.95. Fourth quarter results were negatively impacted by lower Appalachia coal volumes due to reduced recoveries, fewer operating units at MC Mining, and challenging conditions that delayed development of a new longwall district at Alliance’s Mettiki operation. Operating expenses increased $20.4 million due to outside coal purchases and accounted for a portion of the variance to our earnings estimate.

Management guidance for 2024. Total coal sales are expected to be in the range of 34.0 million to 35.8 million tons, while the coal sales price per ton is expected to be in the range of $61.75 to $63.75. Segmented adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold is expected to be $41.00 to $43.00. The company has committed and priced over 90% of 2024 expected coal sales volumes, or 32.5 million tons of which 4.1 million tons will be sold in the export market.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Awarded New ID/IQ for Sounding Rocket

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, January 29, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

ID/IQ Award. According to the daily Department of Defense contract award release, on Friday, Kratos Space & Missile Defense Systems Inc. was one of three firms awarded a multiple-award, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity, cost-plus-incentive-fee, cost-plus-fixed-fee, and firm-fixed-price contract with a combined maximum ceiling of $877 million with a nine-year ordering period for Sounding Rocket Program-4.

Sounding Rocket. Sounding Rocket is a multiyear contract where companies compete for orders to launch small rockets used to carry scientific instruments and experiments into suborbital space. Started in 2018, the original awardees for the seven year $424 million ID/IQ were Northrop Grumman and Space Vector. With the three new awardees announced Friday, the program has been extended until 2029 and the total projected value increased to $877 million. SRP-4 is run by the Space Systems Command’s small rocket program office.


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Labrador Gold Corp. (NKOSF) – Recent Drilling Results Underscore the Rich Discovery Potential of the Appleton Fault

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, January 26, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Recent drilling results. Labrador Gold released results from recent drilling targeting the Appleton Fault Zone. The drilling is part of the company’s 100,000-meter diamond drilling program at its 100%-owned Kingsway project. The most recent results are for holes drilled at Pristine, the northeast extension of Big Vein, initial holes at Knobby and Peter Easton, and the first hole in the recently identified HM occurrence. 

A new discovery at HM. The HM occurrence was discovered by prospecting and is roughly 570 meters along strike to the southwest of Big Vein. Hole K-23-334 tested for gold mineralization at depth below the quartz vein at surface. The hole returned gold grading 0.87 grams of gold per tonne over 55.9 meters, including a zone with visible gold that graded 38.37 grams of gold per tonne over 0.8 meters. Hole K-23-334 is the only hole drilled into this occurrence to date.


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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) – Hemisphere reports production levels near expectations, offers initial 2024 guidance

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, January 26, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Hemisphere Energy reported 2024-4Q production results. Hemisphere Energy reported production of 3,375 boe/d, a 16% increase over the same period in 2022 and an 11% increase over 2023-3Q results. Production for the most recent quarter surpassed the 3,325 boe/d rate we had been using in our models. 

Management gives initial 2024 production, pricing, and cost guidance. Management gave initial 2024 production, cash flow and capital expenditure guidance. Guidance was largely in line with our expectations. 


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AZZ Inc. (AZZ) – Estimates and target raised to reflect higher margins and peer group comps.

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, January 25, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fiscal third quarter results continued AZZ’s upward trend. AZZ reported strong results in the third quarter as sales continued to expand and operating margins increased. While there was a nonrecurring boost to AZZ’s nonconsolidated division, that should not take away from favorable results at AZZ’s Metal Coating and Precoat Metals divisions. We look for top-line growth to continue at a 2-3% rate and for EBITDA margins to continue to expand towards 25% with a continued shift toward the higher-margin Metal Coating division.

Coating company stocks have risen in recent months. The DJIA has risen 14% in the last three months. AZZ’s increase of 33% over that time period leads its coating peer group, but other stocks such as Chemours (CC) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) have also risen more than 25%. As a result, the peer group median forward P/E has risen to 17 times from 15 times and the median EV/EBITDA has increased to 13 times from 10 times.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

YS Biopharma Co., Ltd. (YS) – Supply Disruptions Still Hit the Quarter, But Outlook Remains Strong

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 24, 2024

https://www.ysbiopharm.comSector(s): Healthcare Industry: Biotechnology Full Time Employees: 865 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Dr. Hui Shao Pres, CEO & Exec. Director N/A N/A 1969 Ms. Chunyuan Wu Chief Financial Officer

Gregory Aurand, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reported fiscal Q2 2024 and 1H 2024.  In the fiscal Q2 ended September 30, 2023, YS Biopharma reported revenues of RMB96.82 million, and RMB273.1 million for the first six months of fiscal 2024.  We expected RMB121.8 million and RMB298.1 million, respectively. In the fiscal Q2, the Company reported a net loss of RMB103.7 million, or a loss of RMB1.13 per share, vs. our expected loss of RMB78.7 million, or a loss of RMB0.82 per share.

Revenues were still impacted by Covid-related issues. The Company has been working to improve raw material supply, inventory management and production output. Vaccine production returned to normal levels during the quarter, with the FQ2 expected to be the last quarter impacted by the Covid-related production delays. Management now expects third quarter YSJA vaccine revenues to be more normalized, increasing approximately 50% sequentially.


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FAT Brands (FAT) – Another Year of Store Growth

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 24, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Growth. FAT Brands continued growth in 2023 of new store openings and development agreements. As we have stated in past reports, new store openings is a “cost free” way of increasing revenue and EBITDA for the Company. The development pipeline could add some $50-$60 million of adjusted EBITDA once deployed.

Numbers. During 2023, a total of 125 new locations were opened, below the full year goal of 150, although the shortfall is just delayed, in our opinion. Notably, several of FAT Brands’ newest stores opened in non-traditional spaces, such as airports, hospitals, and theme parks. The Company added a total of over 200 stores to the unit development pipeline, which now exceeds 1,200 locations. We anticipate approximately 150 new store locations to be opened in 2024.


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EuroDry (EDRY) – Outlook for EuroDry Improving – Price Target Raised

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 24, 2024

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Rising shipping rates. Shipping rates have risen in recent months. EuroDry management reports a 2024 BPI rate of $14,225 due, in part, to conflict in the Red Sea. Although the overall impact on shipping rates is modest, we would remind investors that EuroDry is more sensitive to shipping rates than any of the shipping companies we follow. 

Longer-term shipping rate outlook remains positive. Recent rate weakness has largely been attributed to decreased demand for steel by China. EuroDry believes the Far East and Africa will provide future growth. Increased demand for ships comes at the same time as ship availability is reduced. Growing port congestion and environmentally mandated slower ship speeds combine to add days to shipping routes, reducing the availability of ships. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – AI Revenue Has Begun

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

AI Revenue. Bit Digital announced revenue from its AI contract has started, a significant milestone, in our view. The AI business diversifies the Company revenue base from the mining operations and will provide a steady source of revenue with strong margin contribution. With the anticipated growth of the AI industry, we believe there will be more such contracts to come.

Details. As of yesterday, 192 servers, representing 1,536 GPUs, began generating revenue. An additional 64 servers, representing 512 GPUs, are expected to start earning revenue by the end of January 2024. The total contract value for the 2,048 GPUs is worth more than $50 million of annualized revenue to Bit Digital.


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AdTheorent (ADTH) – More Tools in the Toolbelt

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Key partnerships announced. The company kicked off 2024 with two important announcements this month regarding technology partnerships, one with Jounce Media and one with Adelaide. The partnerships will help the company focus on high quality ad inventory and increase its performance measurement capabilities.  

Inventory quality. Through its partnership with Jounce, a media consulting group, the company will access key bid stream data. This data will allow the DSP to avoid made for advertising (MFA) sites. MFAs are clickbait websites that exist to sell ads and, as such, represent low quality ad inventory. Excluding such sites should enhance the DSP’s effectiveness.


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