The annual Russell Index reconstitution, which took effect after market close on Friday, June 27, 2025, marked a significant milestone in the small and mid-cap investment landscape. This 37th annual reconstitution represents the final annual rebalancing before FTSE Russell transitions to a semi-annual schedule, making it particularly noteworthy for investors focused on emerging growth companies.
Historically, Russell Reconstitution Day represents the biggest trading close of the year, with last year’s event generating $220 billion in U.S. equity trading volume. This year’s rebalancing has brought several compelling additions to the Russell indexes, particularly in the biotechnology and technology sectors, offering new opportunities for investors seeking exposure to innovative small and mid-cap companies.
Notable New Additions to Watch
Among the most intriguing additions to the Russell indexes this year are several companies that exemplify the dynamic nature of today’s small-cap market. Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) announced its inclusion in both the broad-market Russell 3000 Index and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, representing a significant validation of the fully-integrated biotechnology company’s market position and growth trajectory.
Tonix’s addition is particularly noteworthy given the company’s focus on developing treatments across multiple therapeutic areas. The inclusion in these widely-followed indexes is expected to increase institutional investor attention and potentially improve liquidity for the stock, making it more accessible to a broader range of portfolio managers and ETF providers.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) represents another compelling story in the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical space. The company focuses on developing immune-modulating therapies for life-threatening conditions, positioning it at the forefront of innovative medical treatment development. With analyst price targets averaging $10.40 and ranging from $8.00 to $16.00, representing a potential 230% upside from recent trading levels, the stock demonstrates the significant growth potential that Russell Index inclusion can help unlock.
Comstock (LODE) and SKYX Platforms (SKYX) round out a diverse group of new additions that span multiple sectors, from natural resources to technology platforms. These companies represent the type of emerging businesses that the Russell reconstitution process is designed to capture, ensuring that the indexes remain representative of the evolving U.S. equity market landscape.
The Russell reconstitution process serves as a crucial barometer for middle market health and provides institutional validation for growing companies. The process realigns membership across the Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Russell 3000, and Russell Microcap indexes to reflect changes in market capitalization and structure, ensuring these benchmarks accurately represent the current market environment.
For investors focused on small and mid-cap opportunities, these new additions represent companies that have demonstrated sufficient growth, liquidity, and market acceptance to meet Russell’s stringent inclusion criteria. The reconstitution process, which began on April 30 and culminated with the June 27 implementation, involves comprehensive evaluation of company fundamentals and market positioning.
As the Russell indexes transition to semi-annual reconstitution in the future, this year’s additions take on added significance, representing the final cohort selected through the traditional annual process that has guided small-cap investing for decades.
To learn more about emerging opportunities in the small and mid-cap market, join us at Noble Capital Markets’ upcoming Virtual Equity Conference on October 8-9, where we’ll feature presentations from promising growth companies and insights from leading market experts.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Approval Delay Is Not A Surprise. Unicycive announced that it has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) in response to its New Drug Application (NDA) for Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC). This was expected following the announcement earlier this month stating that the FDA manufacturing inspection had found deficiencies with one of the OLC contract manufacturers. The company has switched to one of its other manufacturers, which we believe can resolve the issues quickly. We see approval possible around 4Q25 to 1Q26.
Plans To Address The Issues. Unicycive plans to hold a Type A meeting with the FDA to determine its requirements for resolution of the issues cited in the CRL. The company’s second manufacturer already produces OLC and has been generating data for FDA certification. This should allow Unicycive to submit any additional data requested quickly to resolve the issue.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Capital Raise. Kratos completed its previously announced offering of Kratos common stock, raising $575 million in gross proceeds, at a public offering price of $38.50 per share, for a total of 14,935,065 shares of common stock, which includes the exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase additional shares. Net proceeds from the offering were approximately $556 million. Noble Capital participated as a co-manager of the offering.
Use of Proceeds. Kratos expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to (i) fund investments and capital expenditures to scale and successfully execute on large, mission critical National Security priorities related to existing programs, recent program awards and significant high-probability pipeline opportunities; (ii) to finance important customer and program targeted acquisitions; (iii) and for general corporate purposes.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Awards. Yesterday, Great Lakes provided an update on some recent awards. Each of the awards adds to the Company’s significant backlog, which stood at approximately $1 billion with an additional $265 million in low bids and options pending award at the end of the first quarter. The large backlog, with a majority being higher margin capital projects, provides strong visibility for 2025 and into 2026.
Woodside LNG. The Company received Notice to Proceed from Bechtel Energy for dredging work on the Woodside Louisiana LNG project. The first phase of work, which was awarded in the second quarter of 2025, includes the construction of a ship berthing basin for use by large LNG carriers, with potential for award of two options to expand the scope of construction for additional ship berths. Dredging operations are expected to commence in early 2026.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Some Award Updates Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Completes $575 Million Capital Raise Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – CRL Letter Received As Second Manufacturer Generates Data
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$12.19 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Award Updates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Awards. Yesterday, Great Lakes provided an update on some recent awards. Each of the awards adds to the Company’s significant backlog, which stood at approximately $1 billion with an additional $265 million in low bids and options pending award at the end of the first quarter. The large backlog, with a majority being higher margin capital projects, provides strong visibility for 2025 and into 2026.
Woodside LNG. The Company received Notice to Proceed from Bechtel Energy for dredging work on the Woodside Louisiana LNG project. The first phase of work, which was awarded in the second quarter of 2025, includes the construction of a ship berthing basin for use by large LNG carriers, with potential for award of two options to expand the scope of construction for additional ship berths. Dredging operations are expected to commence in early 2026.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$46.45 | Price Target: $44) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Completes $575 Million Capital Raise Rating: OUTPERFORM
Capital Raise. Kratos completed its previously announced offering of Kratos common stock, raising $575 million in gross proceeds, at a public offering price of $38.50 per share, for a total of 14,935,065 shares of common stock, which includes the exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase additional shares. Net proceeds from the offering were approximately $556 million. Noble Capital participated as a co-manager of the offering.
Use of Proceeds. Kratos expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to (i) fund investments and capital expenditures to scale and successfully execute on large, mission critical National Security priorities related to existing programs, recent program awards and significant high-probability pipeline opportunities; (ii) to finance important customer and program targeted acquisitions; (iii) and for general corporate purposes.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$4.77 | Price Target: $60) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CRL Letter Received As Second Manufacturer Generates Data Rating: OUTPERFORM
Approval Delay Is Not A Surprise. Unicycive announced that it has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) in response to its New Drug Application (NDA) for Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC). This was expected following the announcement earlier this month stating that the FDA manufacturing inspection had found deficiencies with one of the OLC contract manufacturers. The company has switched to one of its other manufacturers, which we believe can resolve the issues quickly. We see approval possible around 4Q25 to 1Q26.
Plans To Address The Issues. Unicycive plans to hold a Type A meeting with the FDA to determine its requirements for resolution of the issues cited in the CRL. The company’s second manufacturer already produces OLC and has been generating data for FDA certification. This should allow Unicycive to submit any additional data requested quickly to resolve the issue.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Promising New Data Highlights the Potential for a Significant Copper Discovery
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.17 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Promising New Data Highlights the Potential for a Significant Copper Discovery Rating: OUTPERFORM
Application of two-dimensional inversion technology. Aurania Resources announced that six highly conductive anomalies have been revealed at the company’s Awacha porphyry copper target based on reprocessed data from a 2021 mobile magnetotellurics (MobileMT) survey using the latest two-dimensional (2D) inversion technology. Compared to the previously employed 1D algorithm, the 2.5D code accounts for the actual topography of the area, resulting in more accurate mapping of subsurface conductivity.
Six promising anomalies at Awacha. New inversion data has confirmed the presence of six high-conductivity anomalies that begin 250 meters from the surface and exhibit deep roots. The anomalies are of significant interest because zones of elevated conductivity often correlate with porphyry copper deposits due to the presence of conductive sulphide minerals and porphyry-related alteration.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 27, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9 Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – A Flurry of News Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – An $118 Million Contract
AZZ (AZZ/$92.75 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increase in the quarterly cash dividend. AZZ announced a 17.6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.20 per share, or $0.80 on an annualized basis, from $0.17 per share, or $0.68 on an annualized basis. The dividend is payable on July 31 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 10. In our view, the dividend increase reflects management’s confidence in the company’s near- and long-term outlook.
First Quarter FY 2026 financial results. AZZ will release its first quarter financial results after the market close on Wednesday, July 9. Management will host an investor conference call and webcast on Thursday, July 10, at 11:00 am ET. We look forward to an update regarding the company’s new aluminum coil coating facility in Washington, Missouri, that is ramping up production, along with a review of market fundamentals and the company’s capital allocation priorities.
Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.99 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Flurry of News Rating: OUTPERFORM
News. Bit Digital released a flurry of news over the past two days, including a strategic shift in its business strategy, the potential IPO of its WhiteFiber subsidiary, and a $150 million equity offering. Needless to say, a lot to digest. If completed, the announced shifts would result in a significant change to Bit Digital.
Ethereum Focus. Operationally, Bit Digital will exit the bitcoin mining business and transition to become a pure-play Ethereum staking and treasury company. Given the economics of bitcoin mining versus Ethereum staking, we see the rationale in the move. The Company has commenced a strategic alternatives process for the Bitcoin mining operations.
Steelcase (SCS/$10.89 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Environment. Steelcase continues to face a mixed environment, both on a vertical basis and a geographical basis. The key large corporate customer cohort is doing well, driven by a number of factors such as return to office, but education and government have been hit by funding uncertainties. Germany and France remain sluggish in the key small-to-mid-sized business, but India and China are doing better.
International Actions. Steelcase is taking steps to implement additional cost reduction efforts in Europe, given the weak macroeconomic factors and lower demand in France and Germany. A goal of these actions is to get the International segment back to profitability.
V2X (VVX/$48.47 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An $118 Million Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
Support Services. According to the daily Department of Defense contract announcements, V2X subsidiary Vectrus Systems has been awarded an $118 million cost-plus-fixed-fee undefinitized contract for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. This is another in a long line of recent wins for V2X, demonstrating the V2X value proposition and confirming the significant traction on near-term Foreign Military and International opportunities previously highlighted by management.
Details. The contract provides for base operating support, base life support, and security services. Work will be performed at Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base, Iraq, and is expected to be completed by Nov. 30, 2026. This contract involves Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Iraq. This contract was a sole source acquisition. FMS funds in the amount of $57.8 million are being obligated at the time of award.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, June 26, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – First Look At A Solid First Quarter
Steelcase (SCS/$10.62 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look At A Solid First Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q26. Steelcase reported solid results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue grew 7% y-o-y to $779 million, towards the upper end of guidance. We had forecast $760 million and the consensus was $762 million. Gross margin of 33.9% was up 170 bp y-o-y and above management’s 33% guide. Steelcase reported net income of $13.6 million, or EPS of $0.11, and adjusted EPS of $0.20, compared to $10.9 million, $0.09, and $0.16, respectively, last year. We were at adjusted EPS of $0.14, while consensus was $0.13.
Quarterly Drivers. The Americas business was up 9%, both on a reported and organic basis, driven by a higher beginning backlog compared to the prior year and included strong growth from large corporate, government, and healthcare customers. International was up 1% on a reported basis but down 1% on an organic basis, driven by declines in Germany and France, mostly offset by growth in India, the UK, and China.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE) /MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with Virtus Renewables
Comstock (LODE/$3.55) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Strategic Partnership with Virtus Renewables Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Strategic partnership with Virtus. Comstock Metals forged a strategic partnership with Virtus Renewables Service Group Inc. Comstock and Virtus will jointly develop and deliver comprehensive recycling, decommissioning, and logistics solutions designed to suit the specific needs of the renewable energy markets. The partnership enables a systemwide service offering with expanded industry reach to offer environmentally conscious solutions for renewable energy clients across the United States.
Mutual benefits. Virtus offers a comprehensive suite of operations, project management, and maintenance services for solar and battery storage projects. Combining Virtus’s end-to-end renewable energy service expertise with Comstock’s industry-leading, zero-landfill solution enhances its ability to serve the renewable energy market and benefit from a full lifecycle certification process that adheres to the highest standards of sustainability, reliability, and service. Comstock is the first solar panel recycling company in North America to be certified by Sustainable Electronics Recycling International (SERI) to the R2v3/RIOS Responsible Recycling Standard.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – New Credit Agreement Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Potential Fuel for Growth Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Merger Agreement Moves NeoCart Into A New Company QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target On Favorable Outlook
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.32 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | New Credit Agreement Rating: OUTPERFORM
Credit Agreement. Yesterday, Bit Digital’s WhiteFiber subsidiary announced a CAD$60 million credit facility with Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). We view this step favorably, as the facility not only provides funds to support the continued buildout of WhiteFiber’s Tier-3 AI data center portfolio but also is a confirmation of Bit Digital’s AI business model, in our view.
Terms. While we expect an 8-K to be filed with a full accounting of the terms, the credit agreement is among RBC and ENOVUM Data Centers Corp. and its Montreal II project as borrowers and guarantors, and is non-recourse to WhiteFiber or Bit Digital. It encompasses a real estate term loan, equipment financing, and a revolving facility. The facilities carry interest rates of CORRA plus 250 bps and a 3-year term.
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$5.35 | Price Target: $9) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Potential Fuel for Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Shelf registration. On June 20, the company filed a registration statement with the SEC for a $100 million mixed securities shelf registration, which could include Class A common stock, preferred shares, warrants, and units. The registration statement also included an at the money (ATM) sales agreement, which will allow the company to sell up to $50 million in class A common shares directly into the market.
Bolstering capital availability. We view the registration positively, as it provides the company with flexibility to raise capital opportunistically based on market conditions and the strength of BTM’s share price, which is up approximately 230% year-to-date. Importantly, this added capital access could support strategic initiatives such as tuck-in acquisitions or the purchase of additional kiosks, positioning the company to accelerate its network expansion and long-term revenue growth trajectory.
Ocugen (OCGN/$0.98 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Merger Agreement Moves NeoCart Into A New Company Rating: OUTPERFORM
NeoCart Transferred To Form New Regenerative Medicine Company. Ocugen has announced that it has entered into a merger agreement with Carisma Therapeutics to form a new company. Ocugen will transfer its wholly-owned regenerative medicine division, OrthoCellix, including NeoCart, an autologous cartilage implant technology that uses a patient’s cells to repair articular cartilage defects in the knee. The all-stock transaction is valued at $150 million, with Ocugen shareholders owning 90% of the new company.
We Expect The New Company To Accelerate NeoCart Development. Ocugen has been refining the Phase 3 trial design and has planned to start Phase 3 trials during FY2025. NeoCart has received Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation, which accelerates BLA review and could lead to faster approval. While the NeoCart data has been strong, NeoCart was a legacy product that was acquired by Ocugen as part of its 2019 reverse merger with Histogenics. Regenerative medicine is outside Ocugen’s main focus, and we believe it can be developed more rapidly by a company focused on regenerative medicine.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.16 | Price Target: $0.23) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Raising Price Target On Favorable Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 Results. The company reported solid Q1 results, with revenue growing 3% over the prior year period to $4.8 million, marking the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million in Q1 was moderately lower than our estimate of $0.5 million estimate. We believe its business pipeline appears to be improving and should gain momentum throughout the year and into 2026.
Capitalizing less development costs. Notably, the company capitalized less development costs in Q1 than in prior quarters, leading to more development costs expensed in Q1. While this impacted Q1, we believe that margins should improve as the company begins to recognize the revenue from the new business “wins” in future quarters. Furthermore, the company will be expensing development costs at a similar rate to Q1 moving forward.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.51 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Craigmont drilling program. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) has commenced the 2025 exploration and diamond drilling program at its New Craigmont Copper Project, which will entail 4,000 to 5,000 meters of drilling. The program is expected to run from June through September and cost $1.5 million to $2.0 million. The purpose of the 2025 program is to collect geological data for target development for a potential porphyry copper system at New Craigmont.
Identifying targets using artificial intelligence. In collaboration with ALS Geoanalytics (formerly ALS GoldSpot), five priority targets, three of which are included in the 2025 program, were identified using artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to analyze and correlate geophysical and geochemical data from Nicola’s exploration data. The collaboration harnesses the power of AI to identify high-potential targets which could increase the probability of successful outcomes.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to 2025 MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA)/OUTPERFORM – Roche Forms Agreement For THIO Combination Studies Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected
Euroseas (ESEA/$45.69 | Price Target: $53) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Strong Start to 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter 2025 financial results. Euroseas Ltd. reported adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $37.1 million and $3.76, respectively, compared to $24.6 million and $2.66 during the prior year period. Revenue increased due to a higher average number of vessels compared to the same period last year, while operating expenses declined. We had projected adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $34.7 million and $3.35, respectively. Relative to our estimates, revenues were higher, based on an average daily time charter equivalent rate of $27,806, versus our estimate of $26,221, while operating expenses were lower. Vessel operating expenses totaled $12.3 million compared to our estimate of $13.3 million.
Market outlook. The containership sector may face some challenges, including the potential for transit to resume through the Suez Canal, weaker economic conditions due to fluid trade policies, and a high industry order book, which could increase the supply of vessels. However, the company’s strong charter coverage through 2026 could insulate it from the potential for lower rates. Moreover, the feeder and intermediate segments of the market have relatively low order books, and demand for vessels remains strong.
MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA/$1.8 | Price Target: $14) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Roche Forms Agreement For THIO Combination Studies Rating: OUTPERFORM
MAIA Makes Its Third Supply Agreement. MAIA announced that it has entered a supply agreement with Genentech/Roche to test THIO (ateganosine) in combination with Tecentriq (atezolizumab, Roche’s PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor) for the treatment of several hard-to-treat cancers. MAIA now has supply agreements to test THIO in combination with checkpoint inhibitors from three global pharmaceutical companies, which we see as an indicator of interest for future partnerships.
PD-1 or PD-1L? That Is The Question. Checkpoint inhibitors block the interaction of the surface proteins PD-1 (programmed death receptor-1) with PD-1L (the programed death receptor-1 ligand). When the PD-1 receptor binds to the PD-1L ligand, it inhibits the immune response. Checkpoint inhibitors are monoclonal antibody drugs against PD-1 or PD-L1 that block this interaction, allowing cancer cells to be recognized by a patient’s immune system and killed.
Nutriband (NTRB/$7.79 | Price Target: $15) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected Rating: OUTPERFORM
Preparing For AVERSA Fentanyl Clinical Testing. Nutriband and its partner Kindeva announced that it has completed commercial manufacturing processes and scale-up for AVERSA Fentanyl, its abuse-deterrent fentanyl patch. This allows the company begin manufacturing clinical supplies and filing the IND (Investigational New Drug application) for the Phase 1 clinical study within the timeframe we anticipated. Only a single Phase 1 study is needed to file the application for marketing approval.
Manufacturing Completion Is A Significant Milestone. This scale-up is a significant step that demonstrates the ability to apply Kindeva’s transdermal patch technology for commercial scale production of AVERSA Fentanyl patches. We expect the IND filing to be completed shortly, with clinical testing to follow as expected.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected
GoHealth (GOCO/$5.46 | Price Target: $25) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Vijay Kotte, CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Kotte highlighted the company’s proprietary technology, consumer-centric Medicare policy platform, and gave an update on recent developments. A rebroadcast is available here.
Purpose-built technology. Mr. Kotte emphasized the company’s use of proprietary machine learning tools alongside licensed agents to tailor recommendations to each consumer’s needs. With Medicare beneficiaries typically choosing from 40–50 plans, this technology plays a key role in efficiently identifying the most suitable options.
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$1.48 | Price Target: $2.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. the company reported Q1 revenue of $57.9 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, both of which were better than our estimates of $56.0 million and a loss of $5.5 million, respectively. Notably, while revenue and adj. EBITDA are both modestly lower than the prior year period; we view the Q1 results favorably, given the company’s ability to manage the uncertain tariff outlook.
Tariff mitigation. The company highlighted that it has been taking steps to reduce its exposure to China, currently roughly 60% of its cost of goods sold. Notably, the company is sourcing from other countries and expects that China will be roughly 25% of its cost of goods by the end of 2025. The company has leadership located in the sourcing countries to ensure product quality.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – EMA Allows GEO-MVA To Leapfrog To Phase 3 Trial In EU Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – New Award and Expansion; Raising PT Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Stargardt Disease Program Moves To Phase 2/3 Trial SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – New USMS Transportation Contract
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.32 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 EMA Allows GEO-MVA To Leapfrog To Phase 3 Trial In EU Rating: OUTPERFORM
GEO-MVA Gets An Accelerated Pathway To European Approval. GeoVax announced that it has received guidance from the EMA (European Medicines Agency) that provides an accelerated path to approval for GEO-MVA, its modified vaccinia ankara (MVA) based vaccine for smallpox/Mpox. It will only be required to conduct immune-bridging and toxicity studies before moving directly to Phase 3. This cuts several years from development time and saves many millions of dollars in clinical expenses.
Only Phase 3 Will Be Needed. The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the EMA stated that only requirements before beginning a Phase 3 study will be a non-clinical immuno-bridging and toxicity studies. No Phase 1 or Phase 2 studies are required. An MAA regulatory application can be submitted after a single, Phase 3 immuno-bridging study against the approved MVA vaccine (Imvanex or Jynneos, from Bavarian Nordic). The proposed endpoints of the study would be demonstration of immunogenicity to show non-inferiority.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$41.21 | Price Target: $44) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | New Award and Expansion; Raising PT Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. Kratos was awarded a $25 million task order under the Command and Control System-Consolidated Sustainment and Resiliency contract with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command to support ground system capabilities for Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS). The ESS system will provide the survivable and endurable satellite communications capability for the Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications mission in all operational environments.
Details. The task order has a 34-month period of performance, which began on March 14th and will conclude on November 30, 2027. This was accomplished under the C-SAR single-award indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awarded to Kratos on November 15, 2023. The C-SAR IDIQ contract has a maximum value of $579 million to cover task/delivery orders to support operations, sustainment, enhancements, and constellation capacity.
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.16 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Stargardt Disease Program Moves To Phase 2/3 Trial Rating: OUTPERFORM
OCU410ST Cleared To Begin Confirmatory Trial. Ocugen announced that the FDA has approved its IND amendment to allow OCU410ST to begin its Phase 2/3 pivotal confirmatory trial. This will become the second Ocugen product to move into a Phase 2/3 confirmatory trial, and keeps the company on schedule to meet its goal of submitting three BLAs in the three years between 2026-28.
Brief Description of Stargardt Disease. Stargardt disease is a rare autosomal recessive disease caused by mutations in the ABCA4 gene in the retina. Progressive loss of photoreceptor cells in the retina typically starts at a young age, leading to blindness. Ocugen has received Orphan Drug designation and Rare Pediatric Disease Designation (RPDD) for diseases associated with ABCA4 diseases, including Stargardt, retinitis pigmentosa 19, and cone-rod dystrophy 3.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.26 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Lenny Sokolow, Co-CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Sokolow discussed the company’s innovative technology, commercial partnerships, and its quest for mandatory standardization with the NEC, among other topics. A rebroadcast is available here.
Mandatory standardization efforts getting a boost. Management remains optimistic about its push for mandatory standardization, citing recent backing from a prominent government safety leader. The company’s “Code Team” expects further support from key safety organizations to advance its ceiling receptacle technology as a regulatory standard.
The GEO Group (GEO/$24.9 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 New USMS Transportation Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
USMS Contract. The GEO Group, through its GEO Transport subsidiary, has entered into a new 5-year contract, including option periods, with the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) for the provision of secure transportation and contract detention officer services across three service regions covering 26 federal judicial districts and spanning 14 states. The new contract highlights the Company’s diversified service platform, in our view, which provides the Company with numerous growth avenues.
Impact. The new contract is expected to generate up to approximately $147 million over the five-year period, or up to approximately $29 million in annualized revenues per full-year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Managed-Only services contracts, which average approximately 15%.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – A New Addition To The Russell
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$9.73 | Price Target: $23) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Tim Herr, Senior Vice President of Finance, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Herr highlighted the company’s high-margin leasing model, market opportunity, and strategic initiatives. A rebroadcast is available here.
Attractive unit economics driven by high-margin lease model. Sky Harbour secures long-term airport ground leases at highly favorable rates, often below $1 per square foot annually. Although only 25–33% of each site is convertible into revenue-generating hangar space, that portion can lease for $40 or more per square foot, creating a substantial economic spread.
Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.79 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights its investment merits. On June 5, the company presented at the Noble Virtual Conference to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Michael Benstock, CEO, and Mike Koempel, CFO, highlighted the company’s diverse business segments, favorable history of growth, and solid financial position. A replay of the presentation is available for viewing here.
Diverse business segments. The company operates three distinct business segments: Healthcare Apparel, Branded Products, and Contact Centers. Importantly, all three of the company’s segments have favorable organic growth opportunities, are profitable, and have compelling acquisition target opportunities. Furthermore, the company has a solid history of growth, with consolidated revenue growing at an 8% CAGR from 2019 through 2024.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.5 | Price Target: $28) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A New Addition To The Russell Rating: OUTPERFORM
Joining the Russell. On June 10, the company announced that it is expected to join the Russell 3000 Index at market open on June 27. Notably, membership in the Russell 3000 Index, which remains active for one year, provides the company with automatic inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index.
Improved share visibility. In our view, joining the Russell Indices could provide a meaningful impact for the TZOO shares. Notably, we believe the inclusion in the Russell indices is likely to enhance the company’s share visibility among institutional investors and has the potential to increase trading volume, improve share liquidity, and introduce new investors to the company. As such, we view the development favorably.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 13, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Pelicoin Pick-Up: A Nice Tuck-In Acquisition FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Modest Adjustments to Our 2025 Quarterly Estimates; No Change to Full Year Projections Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$6.25 | Price Target: $9) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Pelicoin Pick-Up: A Nice Tuck-In Acquisition Rating: OUTPERFORM
Bolsters its southern operations. On June 11, the company announced that it had acquired the assets of Pelicoin, a crypto ATM company with operations in the Gulf South (particularly MS, AL, TX, TN). The additional kiosks, which we believe to be roughly 50, are expected to be fully integrated within several weeks.
Industry consolidation. In our view, the acquisition demonstrates the attractive industry consolidation opportunity for the company. Notably, the Pelicoin acquisition marks the second time in the last 18 months that the company has opportunistically added to its kiosk fleet. In April 2024, the company acquired 2,300 kiosks at a 50% discount from a defunct operator. We believe, with its healthy cash balance of $35 million (as of 3/31/25), the company is well positioned to continue to consolidate the industry as opportunities arise.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.9 | Price Target: $13.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Modest Adjustments to Our 2025 Quarterly Estimates; No Change to Full Year Projections Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. While we are maintaining our 2025 rail car delivery estimate of 4,710, we have lowered our second quarter expectations to 850 from 950 and increased our third quarter estimate to 1,790 from 1,690. Our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates are unchanged at $45.9 million, and $0.47, respectively. However, our second and third quarter EPS estimates are $0.06 and $0.20, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $0.07 and $0.19.
Flexible production schedule. With FreightCar’s asset-based lending facility, the company has greater flexibility to manage its production schedule, given that it can borrow against inventory. The company has the ability to produce rail cars associated with firm orders and hold them for delivery to suit customer needs.
Noble Virtual Conference. On June 4, the company presented at the Noble Virtual Conference to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Heidy Chow, CFO, and Peter Lin, Sr. Manager, FP&A, highlighted the company’s release roadmap, unique product offerings, and portfolio diversification. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here.
Favorable release roadmap. The company has a busy release roadmap for 2025, which includes a 10th-anniversary expansion pack for ARK: Survival Evolved, a new expansion pack for ARK: Survival Ascended, and the release of Bellwright on Xbox in Q4. Additionally, nine new gaming titles are slated for 2025, including Robots at Midnight, Honeycomb, and Echoes of Elysium, which could have breakout potential. Additionally, the company recently expanded into new entertainment categories to further expand its portfolio.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, June 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – An Acquisition GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction Metals & Mining (Metals & Mining) – Metals and Mining Spotlight: Rare Earth Elements
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$21.44 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An Acquisition Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquisition. CoreCivic is expanding its Safety Segment with the proposed acquisition of The Farmville Detention Center in Farmville, Virginia, about 60 miles west of Richmond. Constructed in 2010, Farmville is a 736-bed facility that provides transportation, care, and civil detention services to adult male noncitizens through an Intergovernmental Service Agreement between Prince Edward County, Virginia, and U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement (“ICE”), which expires in March 2029.
Details. CoreCivic is paying $67 million for Farmville, or about $91,000 per bed. The transaction is expected to be funded with cash on hand and borrowings under the Company’s revolving credit facility. The acquisition is expected to close effective July 1st and will add approximately $40 million of incremental revenue on an annual basis. Using the Safety segment’s average 2024 operating margin, Farmville could add nearly $10 million of segment operating income on an annual basis.
GDEV (GDEV/$21.21 | Price Target: $70) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $97.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $15.6 million, both of which easily surpassed our estimates of $87.0 million and a loss of $0.6 million, respectively. Notably, while revenue decreased 9% from last year, adj. EBITDA was up substantially from a loss of roughly $1.0 million. The improvement in adj. EBITDA was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of marketing spend and focus on profitability.
Key operating metrics. Bookings and monthly paying users decreased by 25% and 26%, respectively, compared to the prior year period, but the decrease was expected as the company is focused on improving the quality of gameplay and not over-monetizing its user base. For example, average bookings per paying user (ABPPU) increased from $88 in Q1’24 to $90 in Q1’25, despite a decrease in monthly paying users.
Demand for rare earth elements expected to grow. Demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow meaningfully through 2030 and beyond, driven by electric vehicles, wind turbines, grid upgrades, and advanced defense technologies. According to the IEA, global rare earth demand could double by 2050 under a net-zero scenario, underscoring the growing strategic relevance in the global energy transition.
China dominates the REE market. According to the 2024 edition of the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, China accounted for 67.9% of rare earth mineral production in 2023 and 38.1% of rare earth mineral reserves, while accounting for most of the midstream and downstream capacity. While mining activity is gradually diversifying, the refining stage remains concentrated. This level of concentration poses a risk to both the U.S. supply chain and national security.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Century Lithium Commences LIFE Offering Financing MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Another Arrow in the Quiver The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Good News Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – FDA Finds Deficiencies At Third-Party Manufacturing Subcontractor – Approval Could Be Delayed Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Positioned For A Much Bigger Company
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.21 | Price Target: $2.3) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Century Lithium Commences LIFE Offering Financing Rating: OUTPERFORM
LIFE offering. Century Lithium has commenced an offering, under the Listed Issuer Financing Exemption (LIFE), to raise a minimum of C$2,000,000 and a maximum of C$5,000,000 with an offering of up to 16,666,667 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.45 for a period of 24 months following the issuance of the units. After selling commissions, fees, and estimated offering costs, the company expects to receive net proceeds of C$1,810,000 to C$4,600,000.
Use of net proceeds. Net proceeds from the financing will be used to complete an updated feasibility study for the company’s Angel Island Lithium Project, complete the project’s Plan of Operations, work towards National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance, and general working capital. The offering is expected to close on or about July 7 and is not expected to close in tranches.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.71) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Another Arrow in the Quiver Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Another Arrow. Yesterday, MustGrow added another arrow to its NexusBioAg product quiver with the signing of a distribution agreement with Phospholutions Inc., whereby MustGrow will sell Phospholutions’ RhizoSorb product in Canada. The new agreement further broadens NexusBioAg’s product offerings in Canada.
RhizoSorb. Phospholutions’ mission is to enhance global phosphorus use, a critical fertilizer for food production. Phosphorus is the second most used nutrient in global food production. RhizoSorb was developed to cut costs and reduce the environmental impact of fertilizer use by releasing nutrients in the soil more efficiently. The product has been through over 500 trials, including over 400 field trials. Notably, Phospholutions has signed a distribution agreement with The Andersons (NASDAQ:ANDE) for RhizoSorb distribution in the U.S.
The GEO Group (GEO/$26.96 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some More Good News Rating: OUTPERFORM
Favorable Adelanto Outcome. The GEO Group received some more good news yesterday with the U.S. District Court, Central District of California, approving a settlement that allows for immediate full intake at GEO’s 1,940-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center in California. Recall, previous court rulings had limited the use of Adelanto based on the then prevailing COVID-19 conditions.
Another Uplift. Under a January 20025 ruling, the Court had allowed the facility to increase its population cap to 475 detainees. At full occupancy and under the current contract, GEO would see an uplift in revenue of some $31 million, with margins consistent with other Company-owned Secure Service facilities. Adding in Monday’s D. Ray James announcement, GEO could be looking at $100 million of additional revenue and approximately $26 million of net operating income on an annual basis.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.53 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 FDA Finds Deficiencies At Third-Party Manufacturing Subcontractor – Approval Could Be Delayed Rating: OUTPERFORM
Approval May Come After The PDUFA Date Of June 28. Unicycive announced that an FDA inspection has found deficiencies with the cGMP (certified Good Manufacturing Practice) compliance at a third-party manufacturing subcontractor. The company’s product, OLC, is manufactured by a contract manufacturer with other subcontractors. The deficiency does not involve the active pharmaceutical compound (APC) and may be related to final finishing and packaging operations.
Good News and Bad News. The FDA stated that the manufacturing deficiencies must be resolved before product label discussions can proceed. We interpret this to mean that the FDA review of the clinical data has been completed, the manufacturing inspection was conducted, and product labeling remains as the final step before approval. Although the manufacturing deficiencies have stopped the labeling discussion, we expect NDA approval when corrected.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$1.91 | Price Target: $12) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Positioned For A Much Bigger Company Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. First quarter results indicated a modest improvement from Q4, but it was a slow start to the year. First quarter revenues were $1.3 million, and the company reported an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.7 million from continuing operations. We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from a number of favorable developments, including the launch of new brands, contributions from Halston, and a lower cost base.
Strategic partnerships. Notably, the company announced a series of new strategic partnerships this year with Jenny Martinez, Gemma Stafford, and Cesar Millan. These new strategic partnerships expand the company’s product offerings into pet products, bakeware, kitchenware, and home essentials. Furthermore, the new celebrity partnerships bring a large number of social media followers, which supports the company’s effort to reach 100 million social media followers in 2026.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Maximizing the Value of Comstock’s Mining Assets Graham (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – A Record Year With Momentum Continuing to Build Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Nicola Receives a Multi-Year Exploration Permit for the Treasure Mountain Project Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – We Don’t Live In That Neighborhood
Comstock (LODE/$3.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Maximizing the Value of Comstock’s Mining Assets Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Amended agreement with Mackay Precious Metals. Comstock Inc. amended the membership interest purchase agreement to sell 100% of its northern most patented and unpatented mining claims, mineral exploration rights and town lots owned by Comstock Northern Exploration, LLC, plus the 25% issued and outstanding membership interest that Comstock owns in Pelen LLC to Mackay Precious Metals Inc. Consideration includes $2.95 million in cash plus a 1.5% NSR production royalty associated with the properties.
More favorable terms. The amendment increases the sale price to $2.95 million in cash from the previous $2.75 million in both cash and stock, thus increasing the cash component of the transaction by $1.2 million. Comstock previously received $1.0 million in cash. The remaining $1.95 million is due in a series of payments in June, July, and ending on or before August 30. Additionally, Mackay will transfer approximately 300 acres of patented and unpatented mining properties in Lyon County, Nevada, that are adjacent to and expand the area of Comstock’s Dayton Consolidated and Spring Valley mineral claims and lands for no consideration.
Graham (GHM/$44.66 | Price Target: $52) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | A Record Year With Momentum Continuing to Build Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q25 Results. Revenue rose 21% to $59.3 million versus $49.1 million in 4Q24 and our $56 million estimate. Gross margin was up 110 basis points to 27%. We were at 25%. Graham reported adjusted EBITDA of $7.65 million, up 159% y-o-y, and above our $5.4 million projection. GAAP and adjusted EPS were $0.40 and $0.43, respectively, compared to $0.12 and $0.15, respectively, last year. We were at $0.26 and $0.26.
Business Environment. Graham’s business environment remains favorable, as evidenced by the recent follow on Navy award. Increased Defense budgets and being in the right space should lead to additional revenue from the Defense sector. Space and Energy continue to have positive futures also, in our opinion.
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.33 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Nicola Receives a Multi-Year Exploration Permit for the Treasure Mountain Project Rating: OUTPERFORM
Treasure Mountain. Nicola Mining’s (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) Treasure Mountain Project is a 100% owned high-grade silver, lead, and zinc past-producing underground mine located 29 kilometers northeast of Hope, British Columbia. It offers significant exploration potential and has a valid permit (M-239) for mining operations through April 26, 2032, that permits the company to mine up to 60,000 tonnes per year. The company holds 31 contiguous mineral claims over an area of approximately 2,200 hectares and one mining lease covering 335 hectares, including 248 hectares of historic workings.
Receipt of exploration permit. On June 4, Nicola Mining received a multi-year area-based (MYAB) exploration permit to conduct extensive exploration at Treasure Mountain. The MYAB permit allows the company to carry out exploration activities, including 30 drill holes, 1,400 meters of trenching, 4,500 meters of trail building, and 20 kilometers of geophysical surveys over the next five years within certain boundaries of the project.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$7.28 | Price Target: $21) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | We Don’t Live In That Neighborhood Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. This report highlights Townsquare Media’s participation in Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Bill Wilson, CEO, Stuart Rosenstein, CFO, and Claire Yanicay, Executive VP IR, provided insights on the company’s Digital strategy and favorable revenue and growth outlook. In addition, management highlighted its goal to reduce debt leverage. A rebroadcast is available here.
Digital to approach 70% of total company revenues. Currently, Digital accounts for roughly 55% of total company revenues and 55% of cash flow. Management indicated that Digital should continue to grow at favorable growth rates, with expected small declines in its legacy broadcast business. As such, management stated that total Digital revenues should approach 70% of total company revenue and cash flow contributions in the long term.
Increased Demand. As regular readers know, CoreCivic has seen increased demand for its services from ICE. The Company already has received new awards for beds and expects to re-open currently idled facilities for ICE. Increased occupancy could drive significant earnings growth. Occupancy in 1Q25 was 77%, still below the low 80% range in 2018/19. The Company showed various illustrative potential for increased demand that could add $73-$131 million of additional NOI.
Pipeline. FAT Brands new store pipeline consists of approximately 1,100 units already paid for by franchisees, which will add some $50-60 million of incremental EBITDA once opened. With some 250 new unit agreements per year and some 100+ new openings per year, we expect the pipeline to be a key driver of financial performance going forward.
Value Creation Opportunity. A key chart in Kelly’s presentation highlights how the implied value of Kelly’s individual businesses and their valuation multiples relative to peers implies considerable upside potential. Based on Kelly’s current enterprise value and the historic valuation multiple of the peer group, management believes KELYA shares have a nearly 100% upside opportunity at this time.
Tariff Impact. With production sourced and sold in-country, the direct impact of tariffs on NN is expected to be minimal. The Company has seen some modest indirect impact, mostly related to deferred decision making on the part of clients and/or consumers. Once tariffs have stabilized, we expect any indirect impacts to be minimal.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$3.55 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Leader. With approximately 165 locations, ONE Group is a leader in Vibe dining through its ownership of STK, Benihana, Kona Grill, and RA Sushi. Notably, Vibe dining customers tend to generate higher average checks while only remaining in the restaurant for slightly longer than traditional restaurant customers.
Transformation. RGP’s business transformation has uniquely positioned the Company to capitalize on shifting demand in its end markets. RGP’s diversified client base and high retention reduce risk and drive long-term value, in our view. The Company’s business is diversified across industries, regions, and service lines, while high retention is growing the lifetime value of clients.
RTO Trends. While overall office occupancy improvement trends have somewhat flattened, Steelcase’s key end market, firms in Class A office space, are improving as more large companies are becoming more aggressive about employees returning to the office. And split working environments can be a benefit to Steelcase as employees need to set up work-from-home offices. Steelcase continues to lead the transformation of the workplace.
The GEO Group (GEO/$26.95 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Lawton Sale and D. Ray James Approval Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lawton Sale. The GEO Group announced it has entered into a purchase agreement to sell its Company-owned Lawton, OK, facility to the Oklahoma Department of Corrections for $312 million. This is one of two facilities GEO management had indicated were up for sale. The sale is expected to close by the end of July 2025.
Value Affirming. The Lawton sale re-affirms our belief in the value of GEO’s real estate assets, a value that significantly exceeds the current stock price. Based on the reported 2,682 beds, the purchase price is equivalent to $116,000/bd. With some 43,000 owned beds in the Safety segment alone, the potential value of the segment real estate would be $5 billion. We do not expect the sale to have a significant impact on reported EBITDA.
Elevated Baseline. Titan’s multi-year strategic transformation has elevated the baseline for the Company. An optimized product portfolio, strong customer relationships, expanded aftermarket business, and long-term tailwinds have increased Titan’s earnings power to $250-$300 million of adjusted EBITDA mid-cycle.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Sustained Market Weakness Weighs on Performance MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA)/OUTPERFORM – THIO Update Shows Another Increase In Overall Survival
EuroDry (EDRY/$8.28) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Sustained Market Weakness Weighs on Performance Rating: MARKET PERFORM
First quarter financial results. Eurodry Ltd. reported an adjusted first quarter net loss of $5.7 million, or ($2.07) per share, compared to a loss of $3.2 million, or ($1.18) per share, during the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at a loss of $1.0 million, down from a gain of $2.1 million during the first quarter of last year. While revenue was slightly above our expectations, operating expenses were approximately $2.0 million higher than estimated due to increased repair costs. Overall, the quarterly results reflected the ongoing market challenges as charter rates remain near five-year lows due to challenging supply and demand trends.
Updating 2025 estimates. Based on the lower-than-expected first quarter results and management’s outlook, we are lowering our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to $9.3 million and ($3.79), respectively, down from $19.6 million and ($0.43). While we expect the second quarter to show a slight rebound, the weak market conditions are expected to persist and could constrain rates through the balance of the year.
MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA/$1.95 | Price Target: $14) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 THIO Update Shows Another Increase In Overall Survival Rating: OUTPERFORM
New THIO-101 Update Presented AT ASCO. MAIA presented updated data from its THIO-101 trial showing median overall survival increased as more patients advanced through treatment. Data presented showed a median overall survival of 17.8 months for patients receiving the combination of THIO and the PD-1 inhibitor, Libtayo (cemiplimab, a checkpoint inhibitor from Regeneron), an increase from 16.9 months reported in January 2025.
Survival Improved As More Patients Completed The Study. Updated data was presented at the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 2025 Annual Meeting, with more patients treated for longer periods. The median overall survival reported was 17.8 months compared with the expected survival of 5.8 months for standard of care therapy. This was an improvement from 16.9 months (n=22 patients) reported in January 2025 and 10.6 months (n=19 patients) reported in August 2024.
New M/V Emmanuel P time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. secured a new time charter contract for its 4,250 twenty-foot-equivalent (TEU) intermediate containership, M/V Emmanuel P, for a minimum of 36 months to a maximum period of 38 months, at the option of the charterer, at a gross daily rate of $38,000. The new contract represents a significant improvement compared to the previous rate of $21,000 per day. Following the completion of a scheduled drydock and installation of energy saving devices, the new charter is expected to commence upon delivery of the vessel from the shipyard in the first half of September.
Agreement to sell the M/V Marcos. Euroseas Ltd. recently signed an agreement to sell the M/V Marcos V, a 6,350 twenty-foot-equivalent unit (TEU) intermediate containership, to an unaffiliated third party for $50 million. The vessel will be delivered to the buyer in October 2025. ESEA expects to recognize a gain of ~$8.5 million, or $1.20 per share. The vessel was acquired in the fourth quarter of 2021 for $40 million. During its ownership, Euroseas Ltd. realized more than five times its original equity investment.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.31 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Positive Cash Flow Outlook Still In Tact Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. First quarter results indicated a modest improvement from Q4, but it was a slow start to the year. First quarter revenues were $1.3 million, and the company reported an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.7 million from continuing operations. We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from a number of favorable developments, including the launch of new brands, contributions from Halston, and a lower cost base.
Positive outlook. The company indicated that it plans to be adj. EBITDA $1 million to $2.5 million positive for full year 2025 in spite of the potential impact of trade policies and disruption from headquarter consolidation at HSN and QVC. The outlook is supported by significant cost reductions that are expected to be at a run rate of $2.5 million per quarter and building royalty revenue from GIII and its Halston brand. Most of the trade policy uncertainty is focused on the second half of the year.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – An Off Road Leader; Initiating Research Coverage
Titan International (TWI/$7.6 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An Off Road Leader; Initiating Research Coverage Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiation of Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of Titan International with an Outperform rating and an $11 price target. Titan is a worldwide leader in the manufacture of off road wheels, tires, and undercarriages for the agriculture, construction, mining, and consumer space.
Transformation. Titan has undergone a strategic transformation since 2019. Management has restructured the Company, eliminating non-core assets, improving the balance sheet, and diversifying the business through acquisitions. Though still subject to cyclicality of its end markets, we believe Titan is well positioned to capitalize on improving end market demand.
Files 20-F with SEC. On June 2, the company announced the filing of its 2024 annual report with the SEC. As a reminder, the company was not in compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements regarding the timely filing of financial results and requested a hearing to review the delisting determination. The issue started with a change in the company’s auditors.
Satisfying listing requirements. Notably, with the filing of its 20-F, the company believes it has regained compliance with the Nasdaq listing requirements and does not anticipate the hearing requested on May 22 will be necessary. Importantly, the filing puts the company back on track with its financial reporting.
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.32 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Switching into High Gear Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter 2025 financial results. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) reported a first quarter 2025 loss of C$475,808 or C$(0.00) per share compared to a loss of C$1,028,129 or $(0.01) per share during the prior year period. We had projected a loss of C$1,044,879 or C$(0.01) per share. The variance to our estimates was largely due to a gain on marketable securities. We increased our 2025 net income and EPS estimates to C$8,803,755 and C$0.05 per share, respectively, from C$7,724,367 and C$0.04. We updated our commodity grade assumptions, along with higher metals price estimates based on actual April and May pricing and CME futures settlements for the remainder of the year.
Mill operations to commence shortly. We expect Nicola Mining to commence milling operations on or around June 15. On May 11, Talisker Resources Ltd. (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF) began trucking run of mine material from its Mustang Mine to Nicola’s Craigmont Mill in British Columbia. Approximately 2,000 tonnes of ore had been delivered as of June 1, and we expect a stockpile of 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes prior to the mill commencing operations.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Primed for Progress DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – A Steady Accumulator Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Another New Contract Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q26 Results Within Expectations The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – An ISAP Extension?
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.17 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Primed for Progress Rating: OUTPERFORM
Annual general meeting. Aurania Resources will host its Annual Meeting of Shareholders at 1:30 pm ET on Thursday, June 12. Shareholders will vote to elect directors, appoint McGovern Hurley LLP as auditor for the ensuing year, and approve Aurania’s incentive stock option plan. Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman, President, and CEO, is expected to provide a brief update on activities following the formal part of the meeting. Aurania will provide a link to a video and/or audio replay of Dr. Barron’s update.
First quarter financial results. As an exploration company, Aurania does not generate revenue and incurs costs to advance its projects. During the first quarter, the company reported a net loss of C$5,106,264 or C$(0.05) per share compared to a loss of C$4,736,264 or C$(0.07) per share during the prior year period. Weighted average shares outstanding increased to 104,168,397 compared to 67,471,7737 during the first quarter of 2024. Exploration expenditures increased to C$3,949,010 compared to C$3,536,819 during the prior year period to fund activities in both Ecuador and France.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Steady Accumulator Rating: OUTPERFORM
An Accumulator. Mink Brook Capital has been a steady accumulator of DLHC shares, amassing 2,164,058 DLHC shares, representing approximately 15% of the outstanding shares. Mink Brook first filed a schedule 13G back in early July 2024, disclosing a 5% holding of DLHC shares. The investment firm has continuously added to its stake since then. Mink Brook is the second largest holder of DLHC shares, only behind long-term holder Wynnefield Capital, owner of approximately 25.6% of the shares.
Who Is Mink Brook? Florida based Mink Brook was founded in May 2019 by William Mueller. Mr. Mueller had spent the past decade successfully investing and advising capital in the small-cap space. He desired to form an investment firm that would provide investors with idiosyncratic, uncorrelated returns by focusing on companies outside of major indexes. As of March 31st, the investment management firm had 32 positions with a market value of $95 million. Mink Brook’s DLH holding was the manager’s sixth largest by market cap.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.18 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Another New Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. In Friday’s Department of Defense contract releases, Great Lakes was awarded a new $35.8 million dredging contract for Galveston, TX. The contract should be completed by the beginning of November 2025. We view this as Great Lakes filling in the very limited open 2025 calendar.
Empire 1 Restarted. In mid-May, the stop work order on the Empire 1 offshore wind project was lifted allowing construction activities to resume. Equinor will perform an updated assessment of the project economics in the second quarter. Empire aims to be able to execute planned activities in the offshore installation window in 2025 and reach its planned commercial operation date in 2027. Empire will engage with suppliers and regulatory bodies to reduce the impact of the stop work order. This is positive news for the still under construction Acadia.
Nutriband (NTRB/$6.5 | Price Target: $13) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 1Q26 Results Within Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Net Loss of $1.4 Million Was Less Than We Expected. 1Q25 Nutriband reported a loss for 1Q26, ended April 30, 2025, of $1.4 million or $(0.12) per share. Product Sales were $0.67 million, slightly below the $0.7 million we had estimated. Importantly, the company made progress advancing its abuse-resistant AVERSA Fentanyl patch toward clinical testing. We expect future revenues to be driven by AVERSA Fentanyl and see the current product sales as a means to offset the cost of product development. Cash at the end of the quarter was $3.0 million.
Total Expenses Were Below Expectations. During the quarter, COGS were $0.4 million or 62% of sales, lower than the 70% we had expected and the 65% seen for FY2024. SG&A and R&D were both close to our estimates, with Total Expenses of $2.1 million lower than our estimate of $2.5 million. We had initially allowed for a stock offering during the quarter that would have increased the Weighted Average Shares Outstanding to 13.2 million, compared with the reported 11.1 million.
The GEO Group (GEO/$27.14 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An ISAP Extension? Rating: OUTPERFORM
Enter Negotiations for Extension. On Friday, it was announced the government intends to enter into negotiations with GEO’s BI subsidiary for a one year extension of the ISAP program, which is currently effective through July 31, 2025. We would view an extension of this program as a significant positive for GEO in both the near-term and longer term.
A Positive Future? Acknowledging Friday’s release is limited to extending the current contract for a year, the verbiage used by the government contracting agency highlights the moat GEO has built around the business, suggesting the Company should be in the catbird’s seat for a longer term renewal. For example, the government states, “Market research conducted by the Office of Acquisition Management revealed that there is only one responsible source because the current contractor is uniquely positioned to maintain existing operations of the program without transitioning active program participants between contractor solutions.”
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – DOGE Concerns Offer Attractive Investment Opportunity Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Building A Sizeable Social Media Presence
Conduent (CNDT/$2.23 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 DOGE Concerns Offer Attractive Investment Opportunity Rating: OUTPERFORM
Investment thesis on track. We believe the company is on track to deliver on our full-year revenue and adj. EBITDA forecast, despite investor concerns around federal budget cuts, to which we believe the company has limited actual exposure. Moreover, although there may be some concerns over disruption from potential new asset sales, we anticipate that additional sales would likely focus on lower-margin business units and could help to bolster the company’s long-term cashflow margin profile.
Re-affirming full year 2025 estimates. While we are largely maintaining our full year estimates, we are fine-tuning the quarterly cadence of adj. EBITDA to better reflect seasonality. Our Q2 and Q3 adj. EBITDA estimates are raised to $33 million and $52 million, respectively, while Q4 is lowered to $54 million, reflecting factors tied to SNAP and Medicare enrollment. We expect 2026 revenue growth of 3% to $3.22 billion with adj. EBITDA margin expansion to 8.0%.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.57 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Building A Sizeable Social Media Presence Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lackluster Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.8 million, both of which were well below our estimates of $2.6 million and $0.2 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, while Q4 results were softer than expected, the company has signed several new brands this year, which have yet to impact operating results. Importantly, the new brand launches have increased the company’s total social media following from 5 million to 45 million over the past five months, a significant step towards reaching its goal of 100 million followers.
Preliminary Q1 results. Additionally, the company provided preliminary Q1 results of $1.33 million in revenue, a decrease from $2.18 million last year, and an expected net loss of roughly $2.67 million, which is an improvement from a net loss of $6.35 million last year. The improvement in net loss is attributable to a $0.8 million improvement in core operating results and a $2.3 million impairment charge recorded in the prior year period.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – A Pivotal Milestone; Reports 1Q25 Results SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Joining the Russell Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – An Investment Opportunity In Keeping With Its Name
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.65) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Pivotal Milestone; Reports 1Q25 Results Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Milestone Quarter. MustGrow’s 1Q25 was a pivotal milestone in the Company’s evolution, with the Company recording its first full quarter since the NexusBioAg acquisition at the end of 2024. MustGrow reported significant sales revenue for the first time, although higher expenses resulting from the acquisition drove a higher net loss.
1Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $3.78 million (all figures are Canadian $), compared to our $2.6 million estimate and zero in the year ago quarter. Gross margin was 14.3%, below our estimated 19.2%. MustGrow recorded a net loss of $1.6 million, or a loss of $0.03/sh, versus our estimate of a loss of $570,000, or a loss of $0.01/sh. In 1Q24, the Company reported a loss of $1.0 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.32 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Joining the Russell Rating: OUTPERFORM
Joining the Russell Indices. FTSE Russell recently included the company in its preliminary additions to the Russell 2000 and broader Russell 3000 indices as part of its annual reconstitution. The inclusion will become effective at market open on June 27, offering a notable validation milestone for the company.
An important milestone. We believe this development could be a meaningful catalyst for SKYX. In our view, inclusion in the Russell indices will drive greater visibility among institutional investors and has the potential to increase average daily trading volume in the shares, supporting improved liquidity and broader shareholder participation.
Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.66 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | An Investment Opportunity In Keeping With Its Name Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage with Outperform rating and $16 price target. Our favorable rating is based on a company in sectors that should grow faster than the US economy, a seasoned, successful management team, a capable balance sheet positioned to support acquisition fueled growth, a history of return of capital to shareholders and a compelling stock valuation.
Favorable industry trends. The company operates in three distinct sectors, healthcare apparel, branded products and call centers. Each segment has favorable, above-average organic growth characteristics, is profitable, and has compelling acquisition target opportunities for enhanced long-term revenue and cash flow growth.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Graham (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – Awarded Large Follow-on Contract Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Better-than-Expected First Quarter Results
Graham (GHM/$40.77 | Price Target: $52) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Awarded Large Follow-on Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. Yesterday, Graham announced that its Barber-Nichols subsidiary was awarded a $136.5 million follow-on contract to support the U.S. Navy’s Virginia Class Submarine program. This new award strengthens Graham’s position as a critical supplier to the U.S. Navy’s undersea programs.
Details. The contract period of performance extends from April 2025 through February 2034. Graham recognized approximately $50 million in backlog from the contract during the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025 to procure long-lead-time materials. As a reminder, the backlog at the end of the fiscal third quarter totaled $384.7 million, just below a record high.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$6.31 | Price Target: $9.25) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Better-than-Expected First Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter results. Seanergy reported first-quarter net revenues of $24.2 million, slightly ahead of our estimate of $23.5 million, due to a higher-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rate. Adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) were $8.0 million and a loss of $0.27, respectively, compared to our estimates of $6.1 million and a loss of $0.38. The better-than-anticipated results are reflective of higher revenues as well as lower costs due to savings in general and administrative expenses.
Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 revenue estimates to $142.9 million from $142.5 million. Additionally, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $70.5 million and $0.74, respectively, up from $68.1 million and $0.59. These revisions are reflective of management’s guidance of better-than-expected TCE rates and fewer dry-docking days, resulting in higher operating days and lower expenses.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Comstock Achieves a Transformative Milestone
Comstock (LODE/$3.05) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Comstock Achieves a Transformative Milestone Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Annual general meeting. Comstock Inc. recently hosted its virtual annual general meeting. Shareholders voted to: 1) elect seven named nominees to the Board of Directors for the ensuing year or, if earlier, until their successors are duly elected and qualified, 2) to ratify the appointment of Assure CPA, LLC as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and 3) to approve a non-binding advisory resolution for the compensation of named executive officers.
Separation of Comstock Fuels. Comstock Inc. officially separated and contributed the assets that formerly comprised Comstock’s fuels segment into Bioleum Corporation, a newly formed company that will operate independently with the objective of becoming a publicly traded company.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to the Year QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Delivers Encouraging Q1 Results
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.26 | Price Target: $2.3) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Strong Start to the Year Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. Hemisphere generated first quarter oil and gas revenue of C$27.3 million, an increase of 30.4% year-over-year, and above our estimate of C$24.4 million. Net income amounted to C$8.9 million or C$0.09 per share compared to C$6.8 million or C$0.07 per share during the prior year period and our estimates of C$8.2 million or C$0.08 per share. The strong earnings were reflective of a 22.3% year-over-year increase in production to 3,833 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from 3,133 boe/d, along with better-than-expected commodity pricing due to the company’s strategic hedging. Adjusted funds flow (AFF) amounted to C$12.7 million or C$0.13 per diluted share compared to C$10.1 million or C$0.10 per diluted share during the prior year period. We had forecasted AFF of C$11.2 million.
Updating estimates. Based on first quarter results and management’s production guidance of 3,800 boe/d for the second quarter, we are raising our 2025 revenue estimates to C$98.2 million from C$94.8 million. We have modestly increased our operating expense estimate to C$38.4 million from C$37.6 million. Additionally, we are raising our net income and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to C$31.3 million and C$0.30, from C$30.3 million and C$0.29. We expect full year 2025 AFF of C$44.7 million, up from our previous estimate of C$43.0 million.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.16 | Price Target: $0.2) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Delivers Encouraging Q1 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $4.8 million, which increased 3% over the prior year period, and was in line with our estimate of $4.8 million. Notably, revenue in Q1 was highest amount of quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Moreover, the company recorded adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million in Q1, which was moderately lower than our estimate of $0.5 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results.
Q1 adj. EBITDA impact. Notably, adj. EBITDA in Q1 was impacted by the company capitalizing less development costs than in prior quarters, leading to more development costs expensed in Q1. Importantly, the increase in development costs that were expensed did not have an impact on cashflow. Furthermore, the company highlighted that it will be expensing development costs at a similar rate to Q1, which was higher than in previous quarters, moving forward.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Right Time, Right Place, Right Project
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.35 | Price Target: $2.30) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Right Time, Right Place, Right Project RATING: OUTPERFORM
Investor webinar. Century Lithium recently discussed the Angel Island Lithium project during an insightful investor webinar. Key highlights included: 1) Angel Island is an advanced project with one of the largest lithium deposits in the United States, 2) the project employs a proven patent-pending process for chloride leaching, along with direct lithium extraction to produce lithium carbonate, 3) Century has a secured a 1,770 acre-feet per year water rights permit, and 4) the company has demonstrated its ability to consistently produce battery grade lithium carbonate on-site at its pilot plant in Amargosa Valley, Nevada.
Nearing completion of a Plan of Operations. Management expects to submit a Plan of Operations to the Bureau of Land Management within the next few months, which would enable the company to initiate the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) permitting process. We anticipate the NEPA permitting process could take between 12 and 24 months, depending on whether an environmental assessment or environmental impact statement is required. An environmental impact statement generally takes longer.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – There Is A Path Forward
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.53) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | There Is A Path Forward Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Taking the necessary steps to remain listed. The company faces a two pronged battle to remain listed on the NASDAQ. On one front, it must address the shareholder equity deficiency. And, on the other front, it must address the stock price, which is trading below $1. We view the issues separately and believe that the company has a strategy to remain listed on both fronts.
Addressing the shareholder deficit. The company has a program to raise capital through an equity reserve facility to address its shareholder deficit issue to comply with a NASDAQ requirement. To date, the company has raised $7 million on its $20 million facility. The company could raise even more capital when it becomes S3 eligible at the end of Summer. Currently, the company is $23 million short of turning shareholder equity positive.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, May 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 1Q25 Results Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Clinical Trial Milestone Updates Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Mexican Metrics Drive Favorable Results Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Phase 2 Results Expected In 4Q25 GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Strong Start Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Merritt Mill Expected to Commence Operations in June V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Another Proposed Stock Sale
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.38 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Reports 1Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Overview. Bit Digital’s first quarter results were affected by mark-to-market losses on digital assets and lower bitcoin mining revenue, both of which reflected industry-wide headwinds and the strategic rebalancing of the business. The Company continued to make meaningful progress in scaling the infrastructure platform and diversifying revenue streams.
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $25.1 million was down 17% y-o-y as digital asset mining revenue fell 64%, while cloud services revenue jumped 84%. We were at $24.8 million. Driven by $49.3 million of mark-to-market losses on digital assets, Bit Digital reported a net loss of $57.7 million, or $0.32/sh, compared to a loss of $11.9 million, or $0.09/sh, last year. We projected a loss of $13.1 million, or $0.07/sh.
Fourth Quarter Included New Data On Norovirus Variants. Cocrystal reported a 1Q25 loss of $2.3 million or $(0.23) per share. During the quarter the company announced Phase 1 results from its CDI-988 study in norovirus. Importantly, preclinical data showed efficacy against new norovirus variants. We believe this provides additional support to Cocrystal’s method of targeting highly-conserved viral replication enzymes to make effective drugs against both current and future variants. Cash on March 31, 2025 was $6.9 million.
CDI-988 Activity Includes New Variant Strains. CDI-988 is a protease inhibitor in development for norovirus and corona virus. CDI-988 has shown activity against multiple strains, with new preclinical data in April 2025 showing efficacy against the GII.17 and GII.4 strains that have recently been most prevalent. Results from the Phase 1 high-dose cohort in healthy subjects is expected to be announced in 2Q2025. A human challenge trial is planned for later in FY2025 to evaluate CDI-988 for treatment and prophylaxis against norovirus.
Solid start to the year. First quarter revenues increased a solid 7.5% to €57.0 million, beating our €55.0 million estimate, in spite of currency headwinds. On a constant currency basis, revenues would have increased a strong 17%. Adj. EBITDA of €1.8 million, was slightly better than our €1.4 million estimate.
Maintain full year 2025 estimates, tweaking upward 2026 estimates. Management reiterated revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance for the full year 2025. We anticipate that revenues will accelerate to the high single digits to the low double digits in the third and fourth quarter, respectively. We are tweaking upward our full year 2026 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates on the the favorable momentum in Mexico and prospects for lower marketing spend.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$2.87 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 1Q25 Reported With Phase 2 Results Expected In 4Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Had Lower Expenses Than We Projected. Eledon reported a loss of $6.5 million or $(0.08) per share, including a gain of $10.1 million related to fair value of warrant liabilities. Without this one-time item, the loss would have been $16.6 million or $(0.21) per share, as Research and Development expense increased less from the previous quarters than we anticipated. We expect R&D to be relatively steady as the Phase 1b and Phase 2 BESTOW trials conclude later in FY2025. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $124.9 million.
Phase 1b Trial Data Expected Mid-Year. The Phase 1b open-label trial is testing an anti-rejection regimen using tegoprubart in kidney transplantation. We see this as important data, since the Phase 2 BESTOW trial is testing this regimen against the standard regimen with tacrolimus. Since historical data for the tacrolimus regimen has been published, we believe the Phase 1b data has some predictive value for the Phase 2 BESTROW trial.
GDEV (GDEV/$15.61 | Price Target: $70) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Off To A Strong Start Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $97.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $15.6 million, both of which easily surpassed our estimates of $87.0 million and a loss of $0.6 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. Notably, while revenue decreased 9% from last year, adj. EBITDA was up substantially from a loss of roughly $1.0 million. The improvement in adj. EBITDA was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of marketing spend and focus on profitability.
Key operating metrics. Notably, while bookings and monthly paying users decreased by 25% and 26%, respectively, compared to the prior year period, the decrease was largely expected as the company is focused on improving the quality of gameplay and not over-monetizing its user base. For example, average bookings per paying user (ABPPU) increased from $88 in Q1’24 to $90 in Q1’25, despite a decrease in monthly paying users.
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.36 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Merritt Mill Expected to Commence Operations in June Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cash flow sources to support operations. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) is advancing its flagship New Craigmont Copper Project and owns 100% of the past-producing Treasure Mountain high-grade silver, lead, and zinc underground mine with significant exploration potential and an active mining permit. Nicola distinguishes itself by offering investors significant discovery and value creation potential through its exploration activities at New Craigmont and Treasure Mountain while generating cash flows from the Craigmont Mill, which processes ore from third parties, a sand and gravel pit, rock quarry, and ready-mix cement plant.
A modern mill to serve British Columbia. The Craigmont Mill in Merritt, British Columbia is equipped to process 200 tonnes of ore per day and is authorized for custom milling. Notably, the Merritt Mill is the sole facility in British Columbia permitted to receive and process third-party gold and silver feed from across the province. Nicola has executed Milling and Profit Share Agreements with several key partners, and a sales contract that enables global distribution of gold and silver concentrate.
V2X (VVX/$48.02 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Another Proposed Stock Sale Rating: OUTPERFORM
Proposed Sale. On Friday, V2X announced AIP, through Vertex Holdco, will sell an additional two million VVX shares on an underwritten basis. The underwriter will have the option to purchase an additional 300,000 shares. V2X is not selling any shares of common stock in the offering, and V2X will not receive any proceeds from the offering by Vertex Aerospace. The offering is expected to close on or about May 19, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.
Post Sale Ownership. Following the offering, Vertex Aerospace will continue to beneficially own 12,167,286 shares, or approximately 38.4%, of V2X’s outstanding common stock after giving effect to the offering (or 11,867,286 shares, or approximately 37.4%, if the underwriter fully exercises its option to purchase additional shares).
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Q1 Results Exceed on Revenue and Margin Strength Zomedica (ZOMDF)/OUTPERFORM – Restructuring Begins To Bear Fruit In 1Q25
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$2.09 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Q1 Results Exceed on Revenue and Margin Strength Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Q1 results. The company reported 18.5% revenue growth in Q1 to $164.2 million, better than our estimate of $151.0 million. Adj. EBITDA was $20.3 million, significantly better than our estimate of $12.8 million, on the back of strong 20% gross margins (our estimate was 17%).
Ramping in Internationally. Management highlighted that the company deployed roughly 150 kiosks in Australia to date, with approximately 150 additional kiosks ready for deployment. Moreover, the company is evaluating at least 2 additional countries for potential expansion later in 2025.
Zomedica (ZOMDF/$0.06 | Price Target: $0.25) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Restructuring Begins To Bear Fruit In 1Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Showed Expected Year-Over-Year Growth. Zomedica reported 1Q25 loss of $63.9 million or $(0.07) per share, including an Impairment Expense of $55.8 million related to the company’s lower market capitalization and stock price. Excluding this charge, Net Loss would have been about $8.0 million. Revenues of $6.5 million showed an annual increase of 3.8% over 1Q24. As expected, there was a seasonal decline from 4Q24 due to the year-end effect on equipment spending. Cash and equivalents on March 31, 2025 were $64.6 million.
Product Mix Reflects Growing User Base. During the quarter, Consumables increased to 70% of sales with Capital Equipment at 30% of sales. This shifting product mix reflects an increasing total number of instruments in use and more assay offerings to increase utilization of each instrument. We expect the consumable segment to continue its growth as additional capital equipment sales add to the user base and introduction of new assays increases the number of tests run on each instrument.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Leasing Momentum Drives Favorable Revenue Cadence SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – U.S. Partnership and Automation Bolster Production Agility Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Good Start Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported As OLC PDUFA Date Approaches
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$12.32 | Price Target: $23) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Leasing Momentum Drives Favorable Revenue Cadence Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $5.6 million, better than our estimate of $5.1 million. An adj. EBITDA loss of $3.3 million was roughly in line with our estimate of a loss of $3.4 million.
New campuses leasing up. Notably, the company’s new campus at Phoenix Deerfield Airport (DVT) welcomed its first tenants, while Dallas (ADS) and Denver (APA) are also in the phase 1 lease-up process and should welcome tenants within weeks. The continued lease up of these three campuses is expected to be a significant driver of sequential revenue improvement throughout the balance of the year.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.35 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 U.S. Partnership and Automation Bolster Production Agility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $20.1 million, in line with our estimate of $20.4 million. An adj. EBITDA loss of $3.6 million was also largely in line with our loss estimate of $3.4 million.
Flexible production capabilities. In response to recent tariff-related uncertainty, the company established a partnership with U.S.-based Profab Electronics, enhancing its production flexibility. While elevated tariffs remain a policy risk, recent pauses have mitigated any near-term disruption to the company’s production partnerships in Southeast Asia.
Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $20.1 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.3 million, both of which were better than estimates of $18.0 million and a loss of $4.5 million, respectively. Notably, revenue increased 42.5% over the prior year period and was driven by ARK Ultimate Mobile Edition, released in December 2024, and less deferred revenue associated with ARK: Survival Ascended sales.
Favorable outlook. The company has several releases slated for 2025, including a 10th-anniversary expansion pack for ARK: Survival Evolved, the release of Bellwright on Xbox in Q4, and new content for Ark: Ultimate Mobile Edition. Additionally, the company is releasing nine new titles in 2025, including Robots at Midnight, Honeycomb, and Echoes of Elysium, which could have breakout potential. We view the company’s efforts to drive user engagement and diversify revenue streams favorably
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.56 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 1Q25 Reported As OLC PDUFA Date Approaches Rating: OUTPERFORM
Counting Down To The OLC PDUFA Date. Unicycive reported a 1Q25 loss of $21.2 million or $(0.61) per share, consistent with our estimates. We continue to expect approval of OLC (oxylanthanum carbonate) around its PDUFA date of June 28, followed by its launch later in the year. The company had $19.8 million in cash on March 31, 2025.
OLC Reduces Pill Burden To Improve Compliance. OLC is Unicycive proprietary formulation of lanthanum carbonate. It was developed to reduce serum phosphate levels in renal dialysis patients with only two small pills per day. We expect OLC to compete against Fosrenol (from Shire), the approved formulation of lanthanum, that requires chewing 3 to 6 large pills each day. This difference makes patient compliance easier.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Refined Model GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Diversifying Revenues With A New Offering Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – A More Sober View, But Still Positive Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Preparations For TNX-102 SL Launch in 4Q25
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.83 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Refined Model Rating: OUTPERFORM
Refined Model. We had an opportunity to dig deep into our model with DLH management. As a result of our discussion, we revised our model. While minor, the changes do impact quarterly EPS, so we believe a model revision is instructional for investors.
Changes. We increased our D&A expense in both the third and fourth quarters to $4.25 million from our prior $4 million. In addition, we increased our fourth quarter interest expense to $3.75 million from a prior $3.5 million. We kept our tax rate at 30%. As a result of the changes, our third quarter net income and EPS declined to $350,000 and $0.02, compared to $525,000 and $0.04, respectively, and our fourth quarter declines to $350,000 and $0.02 from $700,000 and $0.05, respectively. For the full year, EPS is now $0.19 versus a prior $0.22.
GoHealth (GOCO/$8.11 | Price Target: $25) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Diversifying Revenues With A New Offering Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $221.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $42.1 million. The results were below our estimates of $235.0 million in revenue and $49.3 million in adj. EBITDA. Notably, the results did align with management’s previous commentary that the company would execute favorable year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter (revenue was up 19% and adj. was up 56%).
Testing final expense offering. The company recently launched GoHealth Protect, which is its guaranteed acceptance life insurance (final expense) offering. For now, the company is testing out which products fit best with consumers and what the demand function looks like across the Medicare eligible population. Importantly, as the final expense business scales, we believe it could help to balance out the company’s quarterly revenue profile, which is currently concentrated around Q4 and Q1.
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$9.16 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 A More Sober View, But Still Positive Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lackluster Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $339.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $117.3 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $360.0 million and $130 million, respectively. Notably, the soft results were largely driven by a decrease in corporate events in California and Seattle and partially offset by a high single-digit increase in food sales and stable retail and league business. While Q3 results were lackluster, we believe the company will gain momentum heading into the summer.
Pulls guidance. While the company did not provide guidance due to economic uncertainty, we believe that the company will demonstrate solid results in the coming quarters, supported by recent acquisitions, new centers, and strong sales in its Summer Season Pass program. Importantly, management highlighted its focus on expense management, with capital expenditures down 20% year to date, which is expected to continue into next year.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$20.18 | Price Target: $70) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 1Q25 Reported With Preparations For TNX-102 SL Launch in 4Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Reported With Product Updates. Tonix reported a 1Q25 loss of $16.8 million or $(2.84) per share, a smaller loss than we had estimated. Product sales were $2.4 million, slightly lower than the $2.6 million in 4Q24. Gross margins were 61%, an improvement over the 54% seen in 4Q24. TNX-102 SL has a PDUFA date of August 15, and preparations continue for launch in 4Q25. Cash on hand on March 31 was $131.7 million.
Anticipation Builds For TNX-102 SL PDUFA Date. We believe the two Phase 3 trials support product approval for TNX-102 SL in its fibromyalgia indication. As we have described in previous Research Notes, fibromyalgia is currently treated with a combination of pain relievers (opioid and neurological), antidepressants, and insomnia drugs. TNX-102 SL could become the first drug to relieve all major symptoms without side effects from each class of drug.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 13, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Highlighted By Product Launch With Phase 3 Data Expected In 2Q25 NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary – Transformation Progressing Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – A Long Digital Runway Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating 2025 Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Prescription for Profit: Targets Pharmacy Margin Expansion V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$10.83 | Price Target: $20) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 1Q25 Highlighted By Product Launch With Phase 3 Data Expected In 2Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Reported With Product Launch and Clinical Trial Updates. Gyre reported Net Income of $3.7 million with Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders of $2.7 million or $(0.03) per share. Data analysis for the Phase 3 Hydronidone trial in CHB-ALF (chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis) is ongoing, with a data announcement expected during 2Q25. The company also launched avatrombopag in China and plans to launch nintedanib during 2Q25. The cash balance on March 31, 2025 was $51.3 million.
Product Sales Declined But Gross Margin Was As Expected. Product sales were $22.1 million, a decline from $27.8 million in 4Q24. The decline in sales of Etuary, its drug for ITP, was attributed to the economic conditions in China and the shift in marketing resources away from Etuary and toward the new products, nintedanib and avatrombopag. Gross Margin of 96% was as we expected despite lower product volume.
NN (NNBR/$1.88 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Post Call Commentary – Transformation Progressing Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformation Plan on Track. The enterprise transformation is now roughly 70% complete. Notably, the diversification is away from the automotive industry. Of the $160 million (peak value) of new wins over the past seven quarters, one-quarter are non-auto, and about half of the pipeline is now in non-auto verticals.
New Business. NN shifted the business development focus to closing and winning immediate ramp up sales, given the softness in certain end markets. The Company now has 120 programs that are ramping up this year worth $55 million
Saga Communications (SGA/$11.41 | Price Target: $18) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 A Long Digital Runway Rating: OUTPERFORM
Favorable Digital growth outlook. Digital revenues are expected to accelerate to 18% revenue growth in Q2 versus 13.5% in Q1. Year to date, the company generated $5.5 million in digital revenue, surpassing the $5.0 million generated for full year 2024. We believe that the company’s Digital businesses should grow faster than industry averages.
Q1 Overview. The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.5 million, both of which declined over the prior year period, but were modestly better than our estimates of $23.0 million and a loss of $1.1 million. Notably, the company is focused on its blended digital growth strategy and improving profitability. We believe the company’s strategic actions are a step in the right direction for returning toward revenue and adj. EBITDA growth.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$5.98 | Price Target: $11.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updating 2025 Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating first quarter estimates. We are revising our first quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $6.1 million and a loss of $0.38, respectively, from $6.0 million and a loss of $0.39. The revisions are driven by fewer dry-docking days during the quarter and an increase in operating days to 1,716 from 1,691. We also expect lower general and administrative costs, though this benefit is partially offset by higher vessel expenses tied to an increase in estimated ownership days.
Full year 2025 estimates. We are lowering our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $68.1 million and $0.59, down from $79.6 million and $1.17, respectively. The downward revisions reflect lower time charter rates and fewer operating days of 7,241 compared to our previous estimate of 7,391 due to an increase in the number of dry-docking days during the year. We have lowered our total revenue forecast to $142.5 million from $154.9 million. We modestly lowered our operating expense estimate to $111.7 million from $113.2 million, driven by expectations for lower general and administrative costs.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.35 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Prescription for Profit: Targets Pharmacy Margin Expansion Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY Q3 results. The company reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $408.2 million, largely in line with our estimate of $417.0 million. Adj. EBITDA of $37.7 million was 10% lower than our estimate of $41.8 million, the variance largely due to higher cost of revenue.
Focusing on Pharmacy efficiency. In April, the company opened its new fulfillment center in Kansas, which is expected to drive higher profitability in the Healthcare Services segment over the long-term through newer technology and machinery. We expect the new facility to be a drag on profitability over the next quarter or so, however, due to the investments the company is making in the facility. The launch of the new facility aligns with the company’s goal to focus more on Healthcare Service profitability, given the scale that the segment has already achieved (approx. 106k SelectRx members).
V2X (VVX/$51.41 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Repurchase Program. Yesterday, V2X announced that its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program under which the Company may purchase, from time to time, up to $100 million of the Company’s common stock for a three-year term ending on May 12, 2028.
Why? According to management, the share repurchase program reflects the strength of the business and management’s commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through a disciplined capital allocation strategy. As of yesterday’s close, the $100 million represents approximately 6.1% of the outstanding shares. To remind investors, private equity firm AIP owns about 45% of the outstanding shares.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, May 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Gaining Momentum CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Riding the Wave E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Sports Gives It A Leg Up FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 1Q25 Results Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – MRP Integration Drives Strong Results Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Well Positioned to Benefit From Administration Priorities MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With All Three Main Clinical Trials On Schedule Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Initiation of Coverage: A Long Cashflow Growth Runway
Investor webinar. Comstock recently hosted a webinar to discuss the company’s first-quarter 2025 financial and operational performance, milestones associated with its renewable fuels and metals recycling platforms, and the outlook for the remainder of 2025. While Comstock continues to make rapid progress toward commercializing its Fuels and Metals businesses, perhaps the most significant achievement has been laying the financial foundation and framework for capitalizing its businesses to facilitate growth. These include LODE’s maintenance of the authorized share count, the recent share consolidation, a Series A financing for Comstock Fuels, and seeking financial and strategic partners to provide direct subsidiary-level financing.
Upcoming milestones. While Comstock summarized corporate and subsidiary-level objectives for 2025, we view several as significant. These include: 1) completing a Comstock Fuels Series A financing during the second quarter, 2) receipt of permits to expand Comstock Metals’ storage capacity and for the construction of its first industry-scale facility, 3) advancing project level financing for subsidiary projects, 4) the planned spin-off of Comstock Fuels, and 5) finalizing a plan to monetize Comstock’s properties and water rights in Silver Springs, Nevada.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$21.88 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Riding the Wave Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Rising Tide. This is a significant moment of time in CoreCivic’s history, in our opinion. Never in the 42-year company history has there been so much activity and demand for CoreCivic’s services. As we have stated in prior reports, demand for the Company’s services could have a significant upside impact on operating results.
1Q25. First quarter revenue came in at $488.6 million, compared to $500.7 million last year and our $480 estimate, with the decline related to the absence of revenue from the Dilley and CalCity facilities in 1Q25. Adjusted EBITDA was $78.3 million versus $89.5 million. CoreCivic reported EPS of $0.23 compared to an adjusted $0.25 last year and our $0.12 estimate.
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.32 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Sports Gives It A Leg Up Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 better than expected. The first quarter results were solid, beating expectations. Total revenues were $524.4 million, better than our $519.5 million estimate. Importantly, the largest revenue variance was due to better than expected core advertising, which carries incrementally higher margins. Combined with earlier cost reductions, particularly in its Network segment, the company roundly beat adj. EBITDA expectations, $75.6 million versus our $56.5 million estimate.
Powering through the headwinds. The company gave encouraging Q2 revenue guidance, reflecting improving core advertising trends and strong Connected TV revenue. Core advertising is expected to be down more modestly in Q2 than in Q1, driven by ad demand for its sports programming. Connected TV is expected to continue its favorable revenue trajectory (which was up 42% in Q1).
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.75 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Progressing. In spite of the uncertain economy, FAT Brands continued to make progress during 1Q25. A total of 23 locations were opened in 1Q25, up 37% from 1Q24. YTD, the Company has signed agreements for an additional 100-plus locations, adding to the over 1,000 location pipeline. The initial Twin Hospitality distribution was accomplished and one of the whole business securitizations was amended.
1Q25 Results. Revenue was $142 million, down from $152 million in the year ago period, impacted by a 3.4% system-wide same store sale decline and lower revenues due to the closure of one Smokey Bones location during its conversion to a Twin Peaks lodge, partially offset by revenues generated by new Twin Peaks lodges. Reported loss was $46 million, or $2.73/sh, compared to a net loss of $38.3 million, or $2.37/sh, in 1Q24.
Information Services Group (III/$4.64 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Reports 1Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. Reported Q1 revenue of $59.6 million, slightly over the top end of management’s issued guidance and our estimate of $59.0 million. Net income totaled $1.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, an improvement from a loss of $3.4 million, or $0.07 per share, last year. We estimated net income of $0.78 million or $0.02 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.4 million, near the high end of management’s issued guidance and above our estimate of $6.5 million. Adjusted EPS for Q1 came in at $0.07 per share, up from $0.01 per share last year, and above our estimate of $0.05 per share.
Economic Outlook. ISG is well positioned to capitalize on market disruption as clients accelerate digital transformation, adopting cloud solutions, modernizing infrastructure, and deploying AI operations to improve IT performance and reduce costs. These industry shifts align directly with ISG’s core strengths in digital strategy, sourcing advisory, and cost optimization.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$12.09 | Price Target: $27) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | MRP Integration Drives Strong Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. The Company recorded revenue of $1.16 billion, up 11.5% year-over-year, in line with our estimate of $1.16 billion. Adj. EBITDA came in at $34.9 million, up 4.8% over the prior year period and modestly lower than our estimate of $36.5 million. Adj. EBITDA margin decreased 20 basis points to 3.0%. Furthermore, Kelly reported net income of $0.16/sh. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $0.39/sh compared to $0.56/sh last year and our estimate of $0.60/sh.
MRP Integration. The majority of MRP operations were absorbed into the SET segment. However, MRP’s Sevenstep business, along with the OCG and P&I segments, have been combined into Enterprise Talent Management (ETM). In connection with the integration and realignment, Kelly took a $10.7 million charge in the quarter.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$33.61 | Price Target: $38) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Well Positioned to Benefit From Administration Priorities Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased $25.4 million to $302.6 million from $277.2 million in 1Q24. We had forecast revenue of $290 million. Kratos reported adjusted EBITDA of $26.7 million, compared to $26 million in 1Q24 and our $22.5 million estimate. Diluted GAAP EPS was $0.03 versus breakeven last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.12 up from $0.11 last year.
Positioning. With expectations the Defense budget will soon exceed $1 trillion and a major emphasis from the government on increasing innovation, reducing cost, increasing efficiencies, receiving more for less, and rapidly fielding relevant hardware and systems now, we believe Kratos is extremely well positioned.
MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Making Progress Rating: OUTPERFORM
Moving Forward. MariMed brands continue to capture more share across the markets served. The Company expanded into 70 new storefronts in the quarter. Although MariMed’s brands are already top sellers in their markets, we believe there is a significant opportunity to seize additional market share.
1Q25. Revenue in the first quarter of 2025 of $38 million was virtually unchanged from the first quarter of 2024. We had projected $38.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.56 million, down from $4.66 million last year. Reported net loss was $5.4 million, or $0.01/sh, compared to a net loss of $1.3 million, or breakeven, last year.
Ocugen (OCGN/$0.67 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 1Q25 Reported With All Three Main Clinical Trials On Schedule Rating: OUTPERFORM
Clinical Programs Meet Or Beat Expected Timeframes. Ocugen reported a 1Q25 loss of $15.4 million or $(0.05) per share, consistent with our estimates. The company’s three clinical trial continue to progress on schedule, with the first BLA application expected in mid-2026. Its fourth product, OCU200, initiated Phase 1 patient treatment during the quarter. Cash balance on March 31 was $38.1 million, projected to fund operations through early FY2026.
OCU400 Trial Continues To Lead The Way. The OCU400 liMeliGhT (pronounced “Limelight”) Phase 3 trial in RP continues to enroll patients, with completion expected around YE2025. The study enrolls patients over 5 years of age with any combination of over 100 mutations that cause RP. These patients are at stages ranging from early to advanced RP.
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$11.42 | Price Target: $23) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Initiation of Coverage: A Long Cashflow Growth Runway Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $23 price target. Sky Harbour Group (NYSE: SKYH) is a specialized aviation infrastructure developer focused on private and business aviation hangar facilities. It develops premium-grade hangar campuses under long-term ground lease agreements. With low land costs, tax-exempt financing, and strong tenant demand, we believe SKYH is positioned to deliver robust rental revenue growth and long-term free cash flow generation.
High-margin leasing model. Sky Harbour leases airport land at favorable long-term rates that are often under $1 per square foot annually. While only a fraction (1/4-1/3) of the land footprint is usable as rentable hangar space, this space can command upwards of $40 per square foot in rent. This creates a significant spread for SKYH. Furthermore, the company owns a prefabricated steel manufacturer, allowing for cost controls and delivery reliability.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)/MARKET PERFORM – Recent Quarter Highlights Significant Challenges Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Cadrenal Reports Tecarfarin Updates With 1Q25 Report DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 1Q25 InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Revising Estimates Based on Updated Corporate Guidance Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 1Q25 Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Navigating Economic Headwinds ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – A Solid Start to 2025 Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Unique Digital Strategy Gains Traction Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Showing The Rest How Its Done
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS/$5.79) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Recent Quarter Highlights Significant Challenges Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Fiscal Q3 disappoints. Fiscal Q3 revenues of $311.5 million was well below our $367.8 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA loss of $38.6 million was below our seasonal loss estimate of $12.4 million. In spite of a good Valentine’s Day, fiscal third quarter results were adversely affected by weakened consumer confidence and macro economic forces.
Pulls guidance. In lieu of recent trade policies and a weakened consumer, management pulled fiscal full year 2025 guidance. We estimate that fiscal Q4 revenues will decline roughly 6.3% (including the benefit of Easter) and that the company will report an adj. EBITDA loss of $20.5 million. Fiscal full year 2025 revenue and adj. EBIDA are revised to $1.687 billion and $29.2 million, respectively.
First Quarter Was Highlighted By The Collaboration With Abbott. Cadrenal Therapeutics reported a 1Q25 loss of $3.8 million or $(2.09) per share. An important development during the quarter was an agreement with Abbott to develop tecarfarin in LVADs (Left Ventricular Assist Devices). As planned, the company held a meeting with the FDA to discuss the next steps for clinical development of tecarfarin, its anticoagulant. Cash on March 31, 2025 was $7.3 million.
Meeting For Clinical Development Guidance Held With FDA. Cadrenal and the FDA held a meeting to discuss plans to conduct clinical trials to support an application for tecarfarin approval. The FDA gave guidance on the design and data requirements. Cadrenal plans to use the information to plan the final study design then submit it to the FDA for review and feedback.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.08 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary and Updated Models Rating: OUTPERFORM
Moving Forward. While the path forward has been more challenging than we had anticipated, we believe DLH remains on the right path to strong operating results. We believe the Company’s core competencies are well aligned with the Federal government’s goals.
New Business. Management expects some $1 billion of business to be awarded by the end of the fiscal year, providing a substantial opportunity for DLH to win its fair share and drive organic growth in 2026. Yesterday, the Company announced it had been awarded a five year task order valued at up to $37.7 million to continue delivering scientific research and development, modeling & simulation, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotic process automation, biomedical engineering, and cloud-enabled big data analytic solutions for the Telemedicine and Advanced Technology Research Center.
Information Services Group (III/$4 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | First Look 1Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. Reported Q1 revenue of $59.6 million, slightly over the top end of management’s issued guidance and our estimate of $59.0 million. Net income totaled $1.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, an improvement from a loss of $3.4 million, or $0.07 per share, last year. We estimated a net income of $0.78 million or $0.02 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.4 million, near the high end of management’s issued guidance and above our estimate of $6.5 million. Adjusted EPS for Q1 came in at $0.07 per share, up from $0.01 per share last year, and above our estimate of $0.05 per share.
Favorable Developments. Notably, adj. EBITDA increased 68%, and adj. EBITDA margin increased by more than 550 basis points compared to the prior year period. The favorable growth in adj. EBITDA and adj. EBITDA margin are reflective of the Company’s disciplined operating approach and improved business mix. Additionally, we believe the Company is well-positioned to benefit from the uncertain economic environment as more companies look to optimize costs with investments in technology.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$4.96 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Revising Estimates Based on Updated Corporate Guidance Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. InPlay Oil reported a first quarter net loss of C$2.9 million or C$0.18 per share compared to net income of C$1.7 million or C$0.02 per share during the prior year period. This was below our net income estimate of C$4.2 million or C$0.15 per share, primarily due to an unrealized loss on derivative contracts of C$4.6 million and higher-than-expected expenses. Moreover, commodity prices declined slightly during the first quarter, leading to lower revenues of C$38.4 million compared to our estimate of C$40.4 million.
Corporate 2025 guidance. The company generated quarterly production of 9,076 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a 5% increase year-over-year and above our expectations of 8,800 boe/d. The company is raising its estimated field production expectations to 21,500 boe/d, a marked increase from 18,750 boe/d, and expects 2025 full year production to be in the range of 16,000 to 16,800 boe/d. Revenue guidance has been adjusted downward to C$46.75 to C$51.75 boe/d from C$56.50 to C$61.50 boe/d. Adjusted funds flow is expected to be between C$124 million and C$133 million, down from $204 million.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$12.53 | Price Target: $27) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | First Look 1Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. The Company recorded revenue of $1.16 billion, up 11.5% year over year, in line with our estimate of $1.16 billion. Adj. EBITDA came in at $34.9 million, up 4.8% over the prior year period and modestly lower than our estimate of $36.5 million. Adj. EBITDA margin decreased 20 basis points to 3.0%. Furthermore, Kelly reported net income of $0.16/sh. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $0.39/sh compared to $0.56/sh last year and our estimate of $0.60/sh.
Solid Results. The y-o-y revenue growth of 11.5% was largely driven by the Company’s May 2024 acquisition of Motion Recruitment Partners (MRP). On an organic basis, total revenue was only up 0.2%, which includes a 0.8% decrease in revenue from U.S. federal contractors and a 6.3% increase in Education segment revenue.
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$8.31 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Navigating Economic Headwinds Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lackluster Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $339.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $117.3 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $360.0 million and $130 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Notably, the soft results were largely driven by a decrease in corporate events in California and Seattle, and partially offset by high single digit increase in food sales and stable retail and league business. While Q3 results were lackluster, we believe the company will gain momentum heading into the summer.
Favorable developments. The company’s Summer Season Pass program, aimed at driving retail traffic, increased sales by more than 200% compared with this time last year. Additionally, the company is heading into summer with three water parks and seven family entertainment centers that were acquired this year. We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from its enhanced scale, in spite of the economic uncertainty.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$3.52 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Solid Start to 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Solid Start. ONE Group reported results modestly above our expectations for 1Q25. The accomplishments were driven by another quarter of sequential improvement in comparable sales trends, positive comparable sales at the Benihana restaurants, and strong positive transaction growth of 4.1% at the flagship STK brand.
1Q25 Results. ONE Group reported revenue of $211.1 million, up nearly 150% y-o-y, driven by the May 2024 Benihana acquisition. Same Store Sales declined 3.2%, compared to guidance of a negative 3-4%. Adjusted EBITDA was $25.2 million, up from $7.6 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.14, compared to an adjusted loss of $0.02/sh last year.
Saga Communications (SGA/$11.75 | Price Target: $18) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Unique Digital Strategy Gains Traction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.5 million, both of which declined over the prior year period, but were modestly better than our estimates of $23.0 million and a loss of $1.1 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. Notably, the company is focused on its blended digital growth strategy and improving profitability. We believe the company’s strategic actions are a step in the right direction for returning toward revenue and adj. EBITDA growth.
Digital growth strategy. The company’s blended growth strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. Notably, year to date, the company has generated digital revenue of $5.3 million, surpassing the company’s $5.0 million generated for full year 2024.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$7.1 | Price Target: $21) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Showing The Rest How Its Done Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid first quarter results. Total company revenues were down a modest 1% to $98.7 million, in line with our $98.5 million estimate. Digital revenues increased 6.4%, nearly completely offsetting the weakness in legacy broadcast. Notably, Digital revenue in the quarter represented 57% of total revenue, but, more importantly, 62% of total company adj. EBITDA. Q1 adj. EBITDA of $18.1 million was better than our $17.0 million estimate.
Ignite continues to be on fire. Ignite, the company’s programmatic/advertising solutions business, increased revenues an attractive 7.6% in the quarter. Management indicated that the growth of Ignite will be enhanced by its white label initiative, which is expected to account for $10 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to grow to $50 million in the next 3 to 5 years and with a 20% operating margin.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Comments Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Posts Solid Q1 Results CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Exceeds 1Q25 Expectations; Raises Full Year Guidance DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – First Look into 2Q25 Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Multiple Avenues for Value Creation Supported by Operational Cash Flow NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at the First Quarter of 2025 The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Results Lag Estimates; but Growth Story Remains Intact The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – A Step In The Right Direction
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.03 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Post Call Comments Rating: OUTPERFORM
Promising Signs. Management highlighted the success of the Company’s ongoing efforts to improve cash flow and pay down debt. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 improved across several important financial metrics, resulting in increased profitability and margin growth due to operational efficiencies from the lower cost structure.
Reorganization. This quarter, the company launched its new segment structure: Global Seating, Global Electrical Systems, and Trim Systems and Components. The revised structure aims to better connect with the end market customer and sharpen the Company’s focus on the business units.
Conduent (CNDT/$1.98 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Posts Solid Q1 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $751 million, slightly below our estimate of $767 million, illustrated in Figure #1 CNDT Q1 Results. Quarterly adj. EBITDA of $37 million was significantly higher than our estimate of $14 million, driven by better-than-expected operating cost reductions as the company works to remove stranded costs from its 2024 divestitures.
New business signings. During Q1, new business annual contract values (ACV) increased to $109 million, up 13.5% from $96 million in the prior year period. The total contract value (TCV) of the Q1 new business wins was $280 million, up an impressive 95.8%, year-over-year, indicating that management’s plan to return the organization to organic revenue growth is off to a good start, following a year that was more squarely focused on divestitures and debt reduction.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$22.6 | Price Target: $25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Exceeds 1Q25 Expectations; Raises Full Year Guidance Rating: OUTPERFORM
Exceeds Expectations. Driven by an increase in occupancy to 77%, increased bed utilization, and cost management, CoreCivic exceeded internal expectations as well as our projections. Revenue was $488.6 million, better than our $480.1 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $81 million compared to our $69.1 million estimate. FFO was $0.45/sh versus our $0.35/sh estimate, and EPS was $0.23 compared to our estimate of $0.12. In 1Q24, CoreCivic reported revenue of $500.7 million, adjusted EBITDA of $89.5 million, EPS of $0.08, and adjusted EPS of $0.25. The previous year benefited from contracts that were eventually lost during the year.
More Business. In addition to the 2,400 bed Dilley facility, CoreCivic has received letter agreements from ICE for the potential activation of the 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Reception Center in Leavenworth, Kansas and at the 2,560-bed California City Immigration Processing Center in California City, California. Management anticipates additional contracting activity as 2025 progresses.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.05 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look into 2Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tempered Results. DLH reported fiscal second quarter 2025 results in-line with our projections. Financial results continue to be negatively impacted by small business set asides and the run off of acquired small business revenue. Despite these headwinds, DLH’s core services revenue remained strong as the Company delivered cutting-edge solutions in support of customers’ mission-critical work.
2Q25 Results. Revenue declined 11.7% to $89.2 million in 2Q25, driven by small business conversions, but was in-line with our $90 million projection. DLH’s adjusted EBITDA totaled $9.4 million, down from $10.2 million in 2Q24. We were at $9.75 million. Net income was $0.9 million, or $0.06/sh, compared to $1.6 million, or $0.12/sh, last year and our estimate of $1.0 million, or $0.07/sh.
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.26 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Multiple Avenues for Value Creation Supported by Operational Cash Flow Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. Nicola Mining is a unique junior exploration company because it offers discovery potential through its ownership of its flagship New Craigmont Copper Project, ownership of the Treasure Mountain high-grade silver-lead-zinc mine, a 75% economic interest in the Dominion Creek gold project, along with 100% ownership of the only mill permitted to receive and process material from throughout British Columbia. The company’s Merritt Mill, along with a sand/gravel pit and rock quarry, generates cash flow to support Nicola’s operations and exploration programs, which minimizes the need for dilutive equity issuance.
New Craigmont Copper Project. New Craigmont is in the Quesnel Trough, one of Canada’s most prolific copper belts, and is surrounded by past and present producing copper mines and is adjacent to Teck Resources’ Highland Valley Copper Mine, the largest copper mine in Canada. New Craigmont derives its name from the historic Craigmont open pit and underground mine that operated on the property from 1961 to 1982. The Craigmont mine produced over 36.75 million tons of ore with an average grade of 1.28% copper, yielding 900 million pounds of copper. The mine ceased operations in 1982 due to low copper prices.
NN (NNBR/$1.83 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | First Look at the First Quarter of 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Commercial Traction Building. NN added $16.4 million of new business in the first quarter. The Company is well on pace to hit the lower end of its $60 to $70 million full-year target. NN continues to see positive traction in targeted markets, including medical, high-value automotive, and electrical components. Additionally, the Company’s commercial pipeline is strong at over $740 million.
Mixed Financial Start Amidst Transition. First quarter net sales came in at $105.7 million, compared to $121.2 million a year ago, with the decline primarily reflecting the Lubbock sale and rationalized business lines. On a pro forma basis, revenue was down just 1.3% year-over-year. Power Solutions declined to $43.5 million from $48.2 million in 2024 due to the sale of Lubbock. Mobile Solutions revenue fell to $62.2 million compared to $73.1 million during the same prior year period, due to the closing of the Juarez plant. Adjusted EBITDA was $10.6 million, slightly lower than last year’s $11.3 million and lower than our $11.6 million estimate. Adjusted EPS loss for the quarter improved year-over-year to $0.03 from a loss of $0.08.
The GEO Group (GEO/$27.32 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 1Q25 Results Lag Estimates; but Growth Story Remains Intact Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $604.9 million, compared to $605.7 million in 1Q24 and our $608 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $99.8 million, down from $117.6 million in 1Q24 and our $114 million estimate. GEO reported net income of $19.6 million, or EPS of $0.14, compared to $22.7 million, or $0.14/sh, in the same period last year.
Ready To Go. GEO remains poised to assist the Federal government in its immigration policies. We have previously discussed a number of new contracts for the Company, and we anticipate additional awards over the remainder of 2025.
The ODP Corporation (ODP/$13.79 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Step In The Right Direction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. Sales for the first quarter were $1.699 billion compared to $1.869 billion last year but were above our expectations of $1.625 billion. Net loss totaled $29 million, or a loss of $0.97/sh, compared to a net income of $15 million, or $0.40/sh, in the prior year. Adjusted EPS was $1.06, which surpassed our estimate of $0.58/sh, but was lower than $1.31 last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $76 million beat our estimate of $59 million and decreased from $91 million last year.
Favorable Developments. The initial hospitality partnership covers approximately 15,000 potential customer locations within a national hotel management group and is expected to provide a foundation for long-term growth in the segment and adjacent industries. Notably, the company is building inventory and hiring experienced sales personnel to support growth. We believe its actions will drive meaningful growth in the hospitality segment, with meaningful contributions in the second half of 2025.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 1Q25 Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Tackling Its Challenges FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Exceeded Our Estimates Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – An Exceptional Quarter Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$0.9 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | First Look at 1Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Performance Continues to Struggle. First quarter revenue declined 12.7% to $169.8 million from $194.6 million during the same prior year period. The revenue outperformed our estimate of $160.0 million. Operating income and adjusted operating income of $1.4 million and $2.1 million, respectively, decreased by $3.1 million and $4.2 million. Net loss totaled $3.1 million, or $0.09/share, and adjusted net loss totaled $2.6 million, or $0.08/share. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $5.8 million from $9.7 million.
Continued Headwinds. 2025 continues the trends of last year, with challenging global construction and agricultural end markets and lower customer demand across all segments. Furthermore, the recent policy changes and subsequent economic environment have temporarily driven further market confusion. ACT Research projects 2025 North American Class 8 truck production levels to be around 255,000 units compared to 333,372 in 2024, while the Construction and Agriculture markets are projected to be down 5-15% in 2025.
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.88) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Tackling Its Challenges Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Mixed Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $8.2 million, below our estimate of $10.5 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, which was in line with our estimate of a loss of $3.1 million. Notably, the variance in revenue was attributed to softness in the company’s sell-side business, which is still recovering from the defamatory article that was released in 2024. Sell-side revenue trends improved from Q4 when taking into account the seasonality strong quarter and influx of $700,000 in Political advertising.
Segment results. The company reported Q1 Buy-side revenue of $6.1 million, an increase of 6.1% over the prior year period and in line with our estimate of $6.5 million. While Sell-side revenue of $2.0 million was lower than our $4.0 million estimate, the segment should improve volume in the second half of the year, which should provide a meaningful step up in revenue.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.81 | Price Target: $13.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 First Quarter Results Exceeded Our Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. FreightCar America reported net income of $1.604 million or $0.05 per share compared to our estimate of $1.223 million or $0.03 per share. The variances to our estimates were largely revenue and margin driven. As expected, revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $96.3 million and 710, respectively, compared to $161.1 million and 1,223 during the first quarter of 2024. Our estimates were $82.5 million and 700. During the quarter, a portion of RAIL’s railcar production capacity was utilized for custom fabrications by its Aftermarket segment. Management expected lower deliveries to be reflected in first quarter revenues. Gross profit and margin improved to $14.4 million and 14.9%, respectively, compared to $11.4 million and 7.1% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million compared to $6.1 million during the first quarter of 2024. RAIL generated free cash flow of $12.5 million and ended the quarter with $54.1 million in cash.
No Change to 2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Compared to 2024, railcar deliveries, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA are expected to increase 7.7%, 0.6%, and 7.0%, respectively, at the midpoints of guidance.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$10 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | An Exceptional Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Exceptional Quarter. Driven by strong project performance and high utilization, as all active dredges were operational, Great Lakes generated exceptional operating results in the quarter, significantly exceeding our, and consensus, estimates. While, planned drydockings will impact future quarters, the $1+ billion backlog and strong operating environment bode well for the Company.
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $242.9 million in 1Q25 was up 22.3% from $198.7 million in 1Q24, and above our $215.5 million estimate. Gross margin improved to 28.6% from 22.9% last year and our 21.1% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $60.1 million versus $42.9 million in 1Q24 and our $39.5 million estimate. Net income for 1Q25 totaled $33.4 million, or $0.49/sh, up from $21.0 million and $0.31/sh last year. We had an estimated net income of $17 million or $0.25/sh.
Snail (SNAL/$0.98 | Price Target: $4) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Favorable content updates. The company recently announced favorable developments that highlight the execution of its strategic initiatives to diversify revenue and drive player engagement. Notably, in April, the company released two new titles under its independent publishing label, Wandering Wizard, and provided new content in Ark: Survival Ascended (ASA) and Bellwright.
Driving player engagement. In April, the company released Eggcellent Adventure on ASA, an Easter themed seasonal event, and launched the Extinction map on Ark: Ultimate Mobile Edition. As a reminder, ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition was released in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. In our view, the new content releases are illustrative of its strategic initiatives to enhance player engagement.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Aurania Closes Final Tranche of Private Placement Financing FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – RAIL Exceeds Our First Quarter Expectations; Investor Call at 11:00 am ET V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25, Expanding Opportunities
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.18 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Aurania Closes Final Tranche of Private Placement Financing Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private placement financing. Aurania Resources closed the second and final tranche of its non-brokered private placement financing. A total of 2,569,022 units of the company were sold under the second tranche at a price of C$0.30 per unit. Including the first tranche which closed on April 17, Aurania issued 5,751,921 units for gross proceeds of C$1,725,577. Net proceeds will be used to fund general working capital needs and may be used to pay mineral concession fees in Ecuador.
Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the date of issuance.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.25 | Price Target: $13.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 RAIL Exceeds Our First Quarter Expectations; Investor Call at 11:00 am ET Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. FreightCar America earned adjusted net income of $1.604 million or $0.05 per share compared to our estimate of $1.223 million or $0.03 per share. The variance to our estimates were largely revenue and margin driven. As expected, revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $96.3 million and 710, respectively, compared to $161.1 million and 1,223 during the first quarter of 2023. Our estimates were $82.5 million and 700. During the quarter, a portion of RAIL’s railcar production capacity was utilized to build spare parts for its Aftermarket segment. Management expected lower deliveries to be reflected in first quarter revenues. Gross profit and margin improved to $14.4 million and 14.9%, respectively, compared to $11.4 million and 7.1% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million compared to $6.1 million during the first quarter of 2023. RAIL generated free cash flow of $12.5 million and ended the quarter with $54.1 million in cash.
Favorable outlook. First quarter sales activity was strong with 1,250 railcars ordered. With a backlog of 3,337 units valued at $318 million, we expect deliveries to accelerate throughout the year.
V2X (VVX/$48.92 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Solid 1Q25, Expanding Opportunities Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strategy Working. V2X’s unique full-lifecycle, mission-driven strategy is working, resulting in not only an expanded opportunity set but significantly larger individual opportunities than in the past. The Company’s focus on enhancing mission effectiveness, extending asset utilization, reducing costs, and improving security and mission outcomes dovetails nicely with the focus of the DoD and the current Administration.
1Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $1.015 billion compared to $1.01 billion in 1Q24 and our $1.04 billion estimate, with 10% y-o-y growth in Indopacom the driver. Adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, down slightly from $69 million last year and in-line with our estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.98, up from $0.90 last year and our $0.89 estimate.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, May 5, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/MARKET PERFORM – Near Term Tariff Turbulence Likely
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.67 | Price Target: $12) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Control What Can Be Controlled. Given the uncertain economic situation, management is focused on what they can control. The prime examples being the multi-year cost out program and the effort to move manufacturing for U.S. based consumption to the lowest cost geographical areas possible. Management also continues to push forward its new product program to capture additional sales.
Cost Reduction Program. ACCO’s $100 million cost reduction program remains on track, with SG&A costs down y-o-y primarily due to the program. Management estimates some $7 million of savings during 1Q25, and the Company remains on track to deliver $40 million of savings in 2025. This will help alleviate some of the pressure from tariff uncertainty.
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$2.25) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Near Term Tariff Turbulence Likely Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Favorable Fourth Quarter Results. Fourth quarter total company revenues increased an attractive 6.2% to $79.95 million, well above our $71.5 million estimate, primarily due to strong growth in its Wholesale business. Due to price integrity, gross margins substantially improved 470 basis points to 50.1%. As a result, adj. EBITDA in the latest quarter was $3.58 million, better than our $1.5 million estimate.
Adjusting estimates lower. Management guided fiscal first quarter revenues to be down 5%, with gross margins likely down 500 basis points. Notably, the first quarter guidance did not reflect the current U.S. trade policy. While the full extent of the company’s tariff mitigation plans are fluid, we believe that there will be some adverse revenue and cost of goods impact.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25 Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Skating On Thin Ice GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.86 | Price Target: $12) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid 1Q25. In the historically smallest quarter, ACCO reported revenue in-line with guidance while exceeding adjusted EPS guidance during the quarter. However, increased market uncertainties driven by global trade dynamics is resulting in limited visibility beyond 2Q25. Management’s strategic management of its supplier base and ability to accelerate supply chain moves should lessen the impact of tariffs.
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $317.4 million was within management’s $315-$325 million guidance. We were at $315 million. Revenue was down 11.6% y-o-y, with comp sales off 8.3%. Adverse forex reduced revenue by 3.3%. The revenue decline was driven by softer global demand for certain office products and gaming accessories, partially offset by growth in computer accessories. Gross margin improved 60bp y-o-y to 31.4%.
Q1 revenue weaker than expected. Total company revenues declined 6.4% to $187.3 million, weaker than our 4.8% decline and $190.4 million estimates, respectively. Due to previous cost reductions, the company achieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $3.5 million versus our estimate of $3.4 million.
Digital Marketing Services (DMS) revenue surges. DMS revenues, which account for roughly 30% of the digital segment, increased a strong 30%. Management indicated that DMS Q2 revenue pacings have accelerated to 35% growth. Notably, the digital segment accounted for 20% of total company revenues.
First Quarter Included Contract Revenues. GeoVax reported a 1Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.45) per share, a smaller loss than we had expected. The quarter included $1.6 million in Contract Revenue from the BARDA contract in preparation for the Phase 2 trial. Since the contract was cancelled on April 11, 2025, the 2Q25 results will include some final contract work. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $7.4 million.
CM04S1 Continues Development With Focus On Immunocompromised Patients. The current focus of CM04S1 development is in immunocompromised patients, a population estimated at 40 million patients in the US alone. Data from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 clinical trials for CM04S1 was presented at the 25th World Vaccine Congress. The two Phase 2 trials in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and stem cell transplants continue to enroll patients, while the Phase 2 Healthy Adult Booster trial is expected to report data during 2Q25.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.43 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye Rating: OUTPERFORM
Collaboration with a UTG. United Trademark Group (UTG) made a $9 million strategic investment in Xcel Brands and announced a strategic partnership. The investment bolstered the company’s balance sheet and provided more favorable debt covenant terms. In addition, UTG has performance warrants, exercisable over 7 years, that could bring in an additional $13 million if exercised.
Increased financial flexibility. United Trademark Group (UTG) took a $9 million strategic investment in the form of a Paid In Kind (PIK) loan. UTG was also issued performance based warrants that could add $13 million, if exercised. We believe that the funds will be used to support the growth of recently announced brands and provide financial flexibility to acquire or develop additional brands.
Private placement financing. Aurania recently closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman, President, and CEO, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively. Aurania expects to close the final tranche of its non-brokered private placement on or around May 5.
Loan agreement. Dr. Keith Barron has also agreed to provide a loan of up to US$2,094,500 to the company. The loan will be advanced from time to time in mutually agreed upon principal amounts. The loan is unsecured and bears interest at 2% per annum. The proceeds are expected to be used to fund Aurania’s remaining 2024 mineral concession fees in Ecuador, which are due on May 1.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$33.78 | Price Target: $38) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Favorable Tailwinds? Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Trillion Dollard Defense Budget? House Republicans have released legislation that would increase Pentagon spending by $150 billion. The proposal was approved by the House Armed Services Committee and, when combined with the already approved government fiscal year 2025 $886 billion defense budget, the added dollars would bring defense spending to more than $1 trillion for the first time. A significant portion of the recent budget increases target areas in Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our opinion, which could provide additional upside to the Company.
Missile Defense. Approximately $25 billion of the $150 billion proposed increase would be earmarked for the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. Recall, Golden Dome would be a shield intended to protect the continental U.S. against advanced missiles. Golden Dome is another project that aligns with Kratos’ capabilities, in our view.
Fiscal Year 2025 Reported. Nutriband reported its financial results for FY2025, ended January 31, 2025, with a 4Q25 loss of $5.5 million or ($0.50) per share and a loss of $10.5 million or $(0.99) per share. Preparations for the abuse-deterrence clinical testing continue, with an NDA expected toward 4Q25 or early 2026. As of January 31, 2025, the cash balance was $4.3 million.
Revenue For The Pocono Pharmaceutical Division Met Expectations. The Pocono Pharmaceutical division revenue for FY2025 was $2.1 million, with 4Q25 consistent with previous quarters. Gross margin improved in 4Q25 to 45% of sales, the highest level of the year. Nutriband has extended its contract manufacturing collaboration with KT tape, the kinesiology tape company, with modest growth in our projections for FY2026.
V2X (VVX/$49.76 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some More Awards Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Awards. V2X continues to win new awards, and if current Defense budget proposals resulting in the first $1 trillion budget for fiscal year 2025 move to fruition, the award environment should remain target rich for the Company
Navy Contract. Earlier this week, the Company was awarded a $103 million contract by the U.S. Navy for Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) maintenance of C-26 aircraft. Under this contract, V2X will continue providing comprehensive CLS support, including aircraft engineering, upgrades, maintenance, and modifications. The award reinforces V2X’s role as the best-value provider for this critical mission, in our view.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Solid Start
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$27.07 | Price Target: $31) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $159.9 million and $0.57, respectively, compared to $238.4 million and $1.21 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $143.8 million and $0.48. While total revenue of $540.5 million was just shy of our $541.1 million estimate, we underestimated coal sales and overstated transportation revenue. Consequently, transportation expense was also overstated. Total operating expenses were $446.2 million compared to our $462.3 million forecast.
Corporate outlook for 2025 and 2026. Management’s guidance for 2025 was little changed, except for increasing the range for total coal sales tonnage, increasing expense as a percentage of oil & gas royalty revenue, depreciation expense, and lowering net interest expense expectations. For 2026, management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower. Due to higher-priced, multi-contracts rolling off, the average sales price per ton could be 4% to 5% below the midpoint of ARLP’s 2025 guidance. We think planned 2025 long wall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset lower prices.
Perfect (PERF/$1.92 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue growth of 13.4% year over year to $16.0 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $16.2 million. Adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million was better than our estimate of $0.4 million.
B2C momentum. The strong quarterly revenue growth was driven by the company’s B2C segment. Importantly, the company is in the midst of optimizing pricing for its popular beauty app subscription and recently introduced a higher margin premium subscription plan. We believe the B2C segment is poised for continued revenue growth throughout 2025.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$16.12 | Price Target: $28) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Off To A Solid Start Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reports solid Q1 results. Q1 revenues accelerated, up 5.3%, from the 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, reflecting the early adoption of the company’s transformative migration toward a subscription model. Results were in line with expectations, with adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million and positive free cash flow generation of $3.3 million.
Revenues expected to accelerate. Management indicated that second quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate, double the rate of the first quarter’s 5.3%. The enhanced revenue growth reflects the success of converting legacy subscribers to a paid subscription. The paid subscription began in the first quarter of 2025, with subscription revenues recognized pro-ratably over the subscription period. As such, we expect that revenue growth will accelerate as it adds subscriptions throughout the year.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – April News Roundup
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.69 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 April News Roundup Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fazoli’s Securitization. FAT Brands amended the Fazoli’s whole business securitization credit facility. The amendments extended the repayment and call dates from January 2025 to July 2026 and from July 2023 to October 2025, respectively, while also relaxing certain covenants, providing FAT greater operational flexibility. The new agreement also permits FAT to sell off the corporate-owned Fazoli locations.
France Growth. Also, during the month, FAT announced a new partnership to expand Fatburger across France, with the opening of 30 units over the next three years, with five units expected to be opened in 2026. FAT’s partner has a vast amount of experience within the restaurant space and successfully operates their own restaurant franchise in the country.
Get the Full Report
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 28, 2025
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.79) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Reports 4Q25 Results Rating: MARKET PERFORM
4Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $118.8 million, reflecting initial sales of TerraSante product. We were at $25,000. Net loss totaled $1.2 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh, in line with our estimate. For the full year, MustGrow reported revenue of $398,018 and a net loss of $4.9 Million, or a loss of $0.09/sh, also inline with our expectations.
Capital Raise. In mid-January, MustGrow raised $2.585 million of capital through the sale of convertible debentures. Combined with the $3 million of cash at year-end, we believe the Company has sufficient liquidity until significant revenue begins, which we expect this year.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Market Share
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.45 | Price Target: $13.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Gaining Market Share Rating: OUTPERFORM
Robust first quarter order activity. During the first quarter ending on March 31, FreightCar America received orders for a total of 1,250 railcars valued at approximately $141 million. Based on the Railway Supply Institute’s American Railway Car Institute Committee (ARCI) first quarter 2025 reporting statistics, industry orders totaled 5,085 railcars, while deliveries amounted to 7,810. Freight Car’s orders represented approximately 25% of all new railcars ordered during the quarter and 36% of FreightCar America’s addressable market.
2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Our current 2025 estimates include railcar deliveries of 4,700 units, revenue of $562.5 million, and EBITDA of $45.4 million. While first quarter orders of 1,250 was above our estimate of 1,000, our estimate for first quarter deliveries is unchanged.
Plans to delist. The company announced plans to move its stock from the Nasdaq to the OTC market effective May 2nd. Cumulus received a delisting warning a month earlier from Nasdaq for not meeting a $10 million minimum stockholders’ equity requirement. The company determined that will not appeal given the time, effort and cost of to remain on Nasdaq.
Ticker remains CMLS. The company has applied and qualified to list on the OTC Markets’ OTCQB market tier and expects that its shares will trade at the open on May 2 under its current trading symbol CMLS. The company indicated that it plans to continue to file periodic and other required reports with the SEC.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026 Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Taking Measures To Remain Listed ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.87 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (NASDAQ:STKS) with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. The ONE Group is an international restaurant company that develops and operates upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges and provides hospitality management services for hotels, casinos and other high-end venues both in the U.S. and internationally.
A Leader in Vibe Dining. ONE Group is a leader in the “Vibe Dining” subsegment. Vibe Dining is characterized by a quality culinary experience complimented with an engaging social scene, such as DJ’s and dancing. While not a new theme, Vibe Dining is being pushed by a generation of consumers looking for more than just food for their dollar. As a category, Vibe Dining is projected to continue to grow at above average rates.
AZZ (AZZ/$80.06 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.
Updating estimates. We project FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of $1.676 billion, $381.7 million, and $5.83 respectively. Our FY 2026 estimates reflect a gross margin of $408.7 million or 24.4% of sales. We have assumed the company accelerates debt repayment to lower interest expense to offset the reduction of equity in earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries caused by the AVAIL JV’s sale of its Electric Products business.
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.55) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Taking Measures To Remain Listed Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Listing requirements not met. The company initially received a notification that it was not in compliance with the Nasdaq’s minimum stockholder equity requirement in October 2024. The company subsequently submitted a plan to regain compliance in February 2025 and was granted an extension until April 16, 2025. However, on April 16, the company had not regained compliance and received a letter of determination from Nasdaq on April 17.
Letter of determination. The letter of determination stated the company did not meet the terms of its extension, due to a noncomplete capital raise that was laid out in its plan to regain compliance, and ultimately did not meet the stockholders’ equity requirement. We believe that the company is working on capital raising initiatives, which should put the company back in compliance. The Class A Common stock is scheduled to be suspended from trading at market open on April 28. The company has filed for a hearing which should delay the delisting process for at least 35 days.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some LOGCAP Extensions
AZZ (AZZ/$77.62 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.
Debt reduction. During FY 2025, AZZ generated operating cash flow of $249.9 million and reduced debt by $110 million. Management expects to accelerate debt repayments with proceeds from the AVAIL transaction which is expected to close in the first quarter of FY 2026. We estimate FY 2026 debt repayments could approach $300 million. At the end of FY 2025, AZZ’s net leverage was below 2.5x trailing twelve months EBITDA.
Share consolidation. As of April 21, 2025, InPlay Oil shares are trading on a post-consolidation basis, with 27,939,437 common shares outstanding. The terms of the share consolidation were one post-consolidation common share per six pre-consolidation common shares. Fractional shares resulting from the consolidation were rounded down to the nearest whole number.
Updating estimates and price target. We are updating our 2025 estimates to reflect fewer shares outstanding and lower crude oil price estimates. For 2025, we are lowering our oil and gas revenue and earnings per share estimates to C$318.7 million and C$1.34, from C$333.5 million and C$1.46, both adjusted for the share consolidation. Moreover, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) to C$149.5 million from C$161.6 million. We are maintaining our production estimate of 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) post the Pembina acquisition, which averages 15,816 boe/d for the full-year 2025.
NN (NNBR/$1.71 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 New Business Wins. NN achieved 1Q25 new business wins of $16.4 million, a solid performance given the state of the economy, in our view. In the same period last year, new business wins totaled $17.2 million. NN is well on its way to meeting its 2025 goal of $65 million in new business wins.
Diversified Backlog and Pipeline. New business wins for the quarter were focused on electrical and power products, medical, non-automotive industrial products, and automotive products. Roughly half of the nearly $700 million pipeline is in these targeted areas.
V2X (VVX/$46.83 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Some LOGCAP Extensions Rating: OUTPERFORM
LOGCAP Extensions. V2X has been notified by the U.S. Army that it will extend the current period of performance (PoP) for the various task orders under the LOGCAP V ID/IQ contract to support U.S. military operations worldwide. The Company’s Kuwait Task Order (TO), Iraq Task Order, and INDOPACOM Task Order are scheduled to extend through June 2030. Given the size of LOGCAP V, we view this as a significant positive for the Company.
SAM.gov. According to the filing on SAM.gov, the Army sought to increase the overall PoP for the current LOGCAP performance task orders (PTOs) to match the PoPs of the aligned Set the Theater (STT) task orders. The LOGCAP STT TOs were awarded as a base year plus nine one-year option periods.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – 2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.2 | Price Target: $0.55) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private placement financing. Aurania Resources Ltd. closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and a director, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively.
Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the first tranche. To accommodate demand, Aurania may increase the size of the offering by up to 25% and expects to close the remaining tranche(s) on or around April 24.
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.27 | Price Target: $2.3) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | 2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full-year 2024 financial results. Hemisphere Energy reported full-year net income and earnings per share of C$33.1 million and C$0.33, respectively, slightly above our estimates of C$32.3 million and C$0.32. The variance is mainly due to stronger oil pricing of $79.48, compared to our estimate of $76.31. Year-over-year, oil and natural gas revenue increased ~18% to C$79.7 million from C$67.7 million. This increase was driven by increased production and more robust pricing of 3,436 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and $79.48, respectively, compared to 3,125 boe/d and $74.07. Likewise, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased 16% in 2024 to C$45.8 million from C$39.4 million in 2023. We had forecast AFF of C$45.4 million.
Updating estimates. Based on lower crude oil price estimates, we are lowering our 2025 net income and earnings per share estimates to C$30.3 million and C$0.29, respectively, from C$37.2 million and C$0.37. Additionally, we are decreasing our adjusted funds flow estimate to C$42.9 million from C$50.6 million. We are maintaining our 2025 average daily production estimate of 3,900 boe/d, an increase of ~14% over 2024.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Term Loan Refi Completed QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – A Sanguine Outlook For 2025
Comstock (LODE/$2.16) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Partnership with RWE. Comstock Metals entered into a Master Services Agreement with RWE Clean Energy, the U.S. subsidiary of RWE, which operates a renewable energy portfolio of approximately 10 gigawatts. It is the third largest owner and operator of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage in the United States. Comstock Metals will provide RWE with recycling, decommissioning, and logistics services for their U.S. solar installations to ensure a zero-landfill solution for 100% of the recovered solar panel materials.
Industry-scale facility. Comstock Metals has operated a demonstration-scale solar panel recycling facility since 2024. The company generates revenue through service fees for decommissioning, tipping fees for receiving and processing end-of-life solar panels, and offtake sales of high-value recycled materials, including aluminum, copper, glass, and concentrated precious metals. Comstock expects to spend $6 million to build its first large-scale facility in 2025. The project will be commissioned in 2026 and will scale in two phases, with initial capacity of up to 50,000 tons annually by 2026, and then to 100,000 tons annually.
NN (NNBR/$1.63 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Term Loan Refi Completed Rating: OUTPERFORM
Term Loan Refi. NN announced the successful completion of its term loan refinancing. The new term loan has multiple improved operational features that management expects will enable the Company to improve and grow faster. Combined with the $65 million ABL refinancing announced in January, yesterday’s announcement sets the stage for a new chapter for NN, in our view.
Details. Although we are awaiting an 8-K filing to drill down into all the terms of the new financing, the term loan is $118 million, with a 2030 maturity. There is a $10 million add-on feature for certain borrowing and improved leverage and liquidity covenants. However, the interest rates are slightly higher than the previous term loan. Marathon Asset Management is the new lender.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.2) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Sanguine Outlook For 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
2024 in the rearview mirror. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reduced spending or discontinued services entirely.
2025 revenue outlook appears more promising. Management indicated that the Q1 revenue outlook should significantly improve, with Q1 expected to achieve the highest quarterly revenue in company’s history, near $5 million. Notably, management indicated that it is currently not affected by the geopolitical environment or the impact of tariffs. As such, it remains sanguine about the opportunity for the company to achieve at least $20 million in revenue for full year 2025.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Not Getting Revenue Traction
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.26) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Not Getting Revenue Traction Rating: OUTPERFORM
In-line results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reducing spending or discontinuing services entirely.
A difficult year. During the company’s Q3 earnings call, management highlighted the loss of a large client and indicated that some of its other clients are facing financial hardship, even though management indicated that there was a strong pipeline, albeit with a long ramp-up period. As such, the year-end results were largely expected to be lackluster.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – First Cerebras Systems Location Secured GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs
Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.85 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | First Cerebras Systems Location Secured Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Tier 3 Site. Bit Digital announced that it has secured the rights to a new data center site in Saint-Jérôme, Québec (to be known as Montreal-3). This site, which is under development, will support the previously announced 5MW colocation agreement with Cerebras Systems, a leader in generative AI infrastructure.
Details. The facility spans approximately 202,000 square feet on 7.7 acres. In addition to the current Cerebras agreement, the facility has future expansion potential, subject to utility approvals. The transaction was executed under a lease-to-own structure, which includes a fixed-price purchase option exercisable within 12 months. The lease term is 20 years, with two 5-year extension options. The facility is being retrofitted to Tier 3 standards. Bit Digital expects development costs to total approximately CAD $55 million (approximately $40MM USD), and a targeted go-live date of July 2025.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.07 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Has Received A Stop Work Order For The Phase 2b Trial. GeoVax has received a Stop Work order for its BARDA-sponsored Phase 2b trial testing of CM04S1 for COVID-19. We have known about other Project NextGen-funded COVID-19 trials that were halted, but hoped the CM04S1 program would continue.
Background On The Phase 2 Trial. In June 2024, BARDA (an office within HHS) selected CM04S1 for a Phase 2b trial to test efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety for protection against COVID-19 as part of Project NexGen. We had expected GeoVax to receive about $25 million for its work on trial design and supplies to be receive
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Moving Up in the League Table
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$0.93 | Price Target: $3.75) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Moving Up in the League Table Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformative acquisition closed. InPlay Oil recently closed its acquisition of Cardium light oil focused assets in the Pembina area of Alberta from Obsidian Energy for net consideration of approximately $301 million. The transaction more than doubles InPlay’s total output to 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). The assets are 68% weighted in oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) and have a low decline rate of 22%. Management expects greater production, a lower decline rate, and enhanced operational efficiency. Following the completion of the acquisition, InPlay had 167,636,627 shares issued and outstanding.
Share consolidation. Effective April 14, InPlay will implement a share consolidation based on one common share for six common shares. The consolidation was unanimously approved by the company’s board and by 96.56% of the votes cast during a special meeting of shareholders. Post-consolidation, InPlay will have approximately 27,939,438 common shares issued and outstanding. The shares are expected to begin trading on a post-consolidation basis two to three trading days following the effective date.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Saga Communications (SGA/$11.5 | Price Target: $18) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Is It Time To Buy The Stock? Rating: OUTPERFORM
Attractive opportunity. The SGA stock is down 48% over the past year, which we believe is largely due to macroeconomic uncertainty impacting advertising revenue and a digital segment that is still early in its development. With some of the noise related to the late filing and activist shareholders quelled for the time being, the company is fully focused on its growth strategy. Given that radio stocks typically experience early cycle recoveries, we believe investors should have the SGA shares on their radar screens.
Cost-effective digital growth strategy. A key focus of the company is reducing costs that have no impact on revenue and continuing to emphasize the roll out of its blended digital advertising strategy. Notably, the blended strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. We view the company’s emphasis on the unique strategy favorably.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Working Capital
Snail (SNAL/$0.77 | Price Target: $4) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Increasing Working Capital Rating: OUTPERFORM
Completes a private placement. The Company completed a private placement offering of two unsecured convertible promissory notes for a combined total of $3.3 million. The notes were sold at a 10% discount to the principal amount and will pay a 5% Paid-In-Kind (PIK) annualized dividend. The proceeds will be used to increase working capital to support its projects and game releases in 2025.
Convertible features. The notes are convertible into shares of Class A Common Stock at $5.00 on any trading day during the five trading days prior to the conversion date. The notes mature in February 2026. Interest to be Paid-In-Kind (PIK) on the convertible notes will begin May 2025 and will be paid in 10 equal payments.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – New Business; Successful ReFi
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.87 | Price Target: $32) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources Rating: OUTPERFORM
Biden-era policies disadvantaged coal-fired power plants. In May 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule that amended the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to make it more stringent. The rule placed severe burdens on coal-fired power plants and required compliance with standards premised on the application of costly emissions-control technologies that, for many coal plants, were not commercially viable. The new carbon emission rules were expected to accelerate coal-fired power plant retirements.
Taking a pragmatic and realistic approach. On April 8, President Trump took actions through proclamation and executive order to, 1) reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry, 2) protect American energy from state overreach, 3) strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid, and 4) provide two years of relief from stringent Biden-era environmental regulations by allowing certain coal plants to comply with a less stringent version of the MATS rule. Moreover, the actions are intended to reduce regulatory burdens and promote coal exports.
V2X (VVX/$45.66 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 New Business; Successful ReFi Rating: OUTPERFORM
COBRA DANE. V2X has been awarded a $62 million contract extension to continue ensuring the operational readiness of the COBRA DANE radar system in Alaska. In addition to ensuring operational readiness, V2X has incorporated various engineering enhancements into this essential system, extending its capabilities and readiness. This full-spectrum support emphasizes V2X’s differentiated capabilities, in our view. The extension work is expected to be completed by March 2027.
TESS ID/IQ. V2X won a seat on the Bridge to Enduring Synthetic Training Environment Tactical Engagement Simulation Systems (TESS). This contract supports the U.S. Army’s TESS devices, a vital component of its live training capabilities, by extending their product life and ensuring they meet the Army’s evolving requirements. The ID/IQ contract includes a ten-year performance period consisting of a five-year base period and two options with a ceiling value of $921 million. This award complements V2X’s previously won $3.7 billion Warfighter Readiness task order.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Euroseas (ESEA/$28.13 | Price Target: $44) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for the M/V Monica at a gross daily rate of $23,500 for a minimum period of 24 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 26 months at the charterer’s option. The M/V Monica is a 1,800 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) feeder container ship. The new charter is expected to commence between the end of April and mid-May 2025.
Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new time charter is an improvement over the previous contract rate of $16,000 per day and is expected to contribute EBITDA of $12.1 million during the minimum contracted period. The new time charter enhances Euroseas’ charter coverage for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 to ~94% and ~58%, respectively.
GDEV (GDEV/$9.7 | Price Target: $70) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A More Profitable Growth Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which were 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
