Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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BQM-177A Targets. Last night, the Department of Defense announced it has awarded Kratos a $49.6 million firm-fixed-price contract for the production and delivery of 55 full rate production Lot 4 BQM-177A Surface Launched Aerial Targets. Included in the award are 55 rocket assisted takeoff attachment kits, 277 mission kits, and associated technical and administrative data. The work is being conducted for the U.S. Navy, as well as the governments of Canada and Australia. The contract is expected to be completed in April 2024.
Valkyrie Flying at Eglin. Eglin Air Force Base recently conducted an operational experimentation test flight of the Valkyrie. Recall, this past fall, two government-owned Kratos XQ-58A Valkyries were transferred to Eglin. Notably, Eglin is an Air Force base as opposed to the Yuma Proving Ground, were the majority of the Valkyrie testing has been done, which is operated by the Army. The resources available at Eglin are a major reason XQ-58A testing found a new home at the base. The Eglin Range communications support infrastructure will allow engineers at the ground station in the Central Control Facility to monitor the vehicle’s performance during flight.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Another stellar quarter. Alliance reported fourth quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $293.9 million and $1.63, respectively, compared to $130.2 million and $0.40 during the prior year period. We had forecast net income and EPU of $272.8 million and $1.42. The partnership’s coal and oil & gas royalties segments performed stronger than expected due to higher volumes and commodity prices.
Updating estimates. We have increased our 2023 EBITDA and earnings per unit estimates to $1.18 billion and $5.90, respectively, from $1.12 billion and $5.85. Based on contracted coal sales volumes in 2023 and 2024, the outlook for cash flow growth appears favorable. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes are expected to benefit from recent acquisitions, including the purchase of 2,682 net oil and gas royalty acres in the Permian Basin which is expected to close shortly with an effective date of January 1, 2023.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Jerome Powell and FOMC Will “continue to monitor the implications of incoming information”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise overnight interest rates from the previous target of 4.25% – 4.50% to the new target of 4.50% – 4.75%. This was announced at the conclusion of the Committee’s first scheduled meeting of 2023. The monetary policy shift in bank lending rates was as expected by economists and the markets as the overwhelming consensus was for a 25 bp move. It has been less than 12 months since the Fed began this tightening cycle, overnight rates since the beginning of last year have increased from near 0.00% to the current target of up to 4.75%.
One recent market focus has been that inflation has been, by most measures, trending lower each month. While lower increases may suggest that inflation is successfully being wrung out of the system, Powell and the other FOMC members have a 2% target for inflation which guides their policy. The current level is more than two times as high. The art of being the nation’s top bankers and economists trying to provide a soft landing for the still strong economy, is difficult. The result of the actions taken by the Fed can only be seen in the rearview mirror, months after the action.
Synopsis of Fed Decisions
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 4.75 percent, effective February 2, 2023. In a related decision, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.65 percent, effective February 2, 2023.
Text from Federal Reserve’s Statement February 1, 2023
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Take-Away
Higher interest rates can weigh on stocks as companies that rely on borrowing may find their cost of capital has increased. The risk of inflation also weighs on the markets. Additionally, investors find that alternative investments that pay a known yield may, at some point, be preferred to equities. For these reasons, higher interest rates are of concern to the stock market investor. However, an unhealthy, highly inflationary economy also comes at a cost to the economy, businesses, and households.
The statement suggests the Fed continues to remain data dependent, but expects further increases will follow. The statement did not provide strong guidance as to what to expect following future meetings.
Chairman Powell’s 2:30 PM ET press conference can be viewed here.
Microbes in Your Food Can Help or Hinder Your Body’s Defenses Against Cancer – How Diet Influences the Conflict Between Cell ‘Cooperators’ and ‘Cheaters’
The microbes living in your food can affect your risk of cancer. While some help your body fight cancer, others help tumors evolve and grow.
Gut microbes can influence your cancer risk by changing how your cells behave. Many cancer-protective microbes support normal, cooperative behavior of cells. Meanwhile, cancer-inducing microbes undermine cellular cooperation and increase your risk of cancer in the process.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Gissel Marquez Alcaraz, Ph.D. Student in Evolutionary Biology, Arizona State University and Athena Aktipis, Associate Professor of Psychology, Center for Evolution and Medicine, Arizona State University.
We are evolutionary biologists who study how cooperation and conflict occur inside the human body, including the ways cancer can evolve to exploit the body. Our systematic review examines how diet and the microbiome affect the ways the cells in your body interact with each other and either increase or decrease your risk of cancer.
Cancer is a Breakdown of Cell Cooperation
Every human body is a symphony of multicellular cooperation. Thirty trillion cells cooperate and coordinate with each other to make us viable multicellular organisms.
For multicellular cooperation to work, cells must engage in behaviors that serve the collective. These include controlled cell division, proper cell death, resource sharing, division of labor and protection of the extracellular environment. Multicellular cooperation is what allows the body to function effectively. If genetic mutations interfere with these proper behaviors, they can lead to the breakdown of cellular cooperation and the emergence of cancer.
Cancer cells can be thought of as cellular cheaters because they do not follow the rules of cooperative behavior. They mutate uncontrollably, evade cell death and take up excessive resources at the expense of the other cells. As these cheater cells replicate, cancer in the body begins to grow.
Cancer is fundamentally a problem of having multiple cells living together in one organism. As such, it has been around since the origins of multicellular life. This means that cancer suppression mechanisms have been evolving for hundreds of millions of years to help keep would-be cancer cells in check. Cells monitor themselves for mutations and induce cell death, also known as apoptosis, when necessary. Cells also monitor their neighbors for evidence of abnormal behavior, sending signals to aberrant cells to induce apoptosis. In addition, the body’s immune system monitors tissues for cancer cells to destroy them.
Cells that are able to evade detection, avoid apoptosis and replicate quickly have an evolutionary advantage within the body over cells that behave normally. This process within the body, called somatic evolution, is what leads cancer cells to grow and make people sick.
Microbes Can Help or Hinder Cell Cooperation
Microbes can affect cancer risk through changing the ways that the cells of the body interact with one another.
Some microbes can protect against cancer by helping maintain a healthy environment in the gut, reducing inflammation and DNA damage, and even by directly limiting tumor growth. Cancer-protective microbes like Lactobacillus pentosus, Lactobacillus gasseri and Bifidobacterium bifidum are found in the environment and different foods, and can live in the gut. These microbes promote cooperation among cells and limit the function of cheating cells by strengthening the body’s cancer defenses. Lactobacillus acidophilus, for example, increases the production of a protein called IL-12 that stimulates immune cells to act against tumors and suppress their growth.
Other microbes can promote cancer by inducing mutations in healthy cells that make it more likely for cellular cheaters to emerge and outcompete cooperative cells. Cancer-inducing microbes such as Enterococcus faecalis, Helicobacter pylori and Papillomavirus are associated with increased tumor burden and cancer progression. They can release toxins that damage DNA, change gene expression and increase the proliferation of tumor cells. Helicobacter pylori, for example, can induce cancer by secreting a protein called Tipα that can penetrate cells, alter their gene expression and drive gastric cancer.
Healthy Diet with Cancer-Protective Microbes
Because what you eat determines the amount of cancer-inducing and cancer-preventing microbes inside your body, we believe that the microbes we consume and cultivate are an important component of a healthy diet.
Beneficial microbes are typically found in fermented and plant-based diets, which include foods like vegetables, fruits, yogurt and whole grains. These foods have high nutritional value and contain microbes that increase the immune system’s ability to fight cancer and lower overall inflammation. High-fiber foods are prebiotic in the sense that they provide resources that help beneficial microbes thrive and subsequently provide benefits for their hosts. Many cancer-fighting microbes are abundantly present in fermented and high-fiber foods.
In contrast, harmful microbes can be found in highly-processed and meat-based diets. The Western diet, for example, contains an abundance of red and processed meats, fried food and high-sugar foods. It has been long known that meat-based diets are linked to higher cancer prevalence, and that red meat is a carcinogen. Studies have shown that meat-based diets are associated with cancer-inducing microbes including Fusobacteria and Peptostreptococcus in both humans and other species.
Microbes can enhance or interfere with how the body’s cells cooperate to prevent cancer. We believe that purposefully cultivating a microbiome that promotes cooperation among our cells can help reduce cancer risk.
Corporate Debt for Equity Swap Announcements Can Have an Immediate Impact on Share Price
AMC Theatres (AMC, APE) announced plans to hold a meeting in mid-March on capital restructuring. One of the expected outcomes is a plan to swap equity for some outstanding debt. APE shares jumped after the announcement. Another company this week, Motorsports Games (MSGM), shares skyrocketed triple-digits after its announcement to shore up company finances with a debt-for-equity swap. What is a debt/equity swap, and does it always lead to strengthening share prices?
Debt for Equity Swap Basics
Two methods by which companies finance their operations, growth, or other investment is by issuing stock (equity), or borrowing (debt). Both have advantages and disadvantages. One reason a company may swap equity for debt is to restructure and reduce borrowings with a creditor. Perhaps cash flow is tight and restrictive, yet the entity is still viable. Cutting interest costs frees capital and may even help the lender avoid problems receiving timely payments.
The company may also use the method to strengthen its balance sheet by altering the proportion of debt to equity.
Motorsports Games Swap
In the case of Motorsports Games (MSGM), the company had fallen out of compliance with the rules required to maintain a listing on the Nasdaq exchange. MSGMs change in corporate financing allowed it to move back into full compliance with Nasdaq, while repaying $1 million in debt with 338,983 shares of stock. The move has the added benefit of increasing liquidity and reducing interest expense.
According to a research note by Mike Kupinski, Director of Research at Noble Capital Markets, “Following the swap, the parent company increased its ownership from 700,000 shares to 1,038,983 shares, representing 62.1% of the votes outstanding.” Kupinski said, “The move significantly improves the company’s liquidity and reduces its interest expense. Notably, the move adds confidence that Motorsport Network has confidence in Motorsport Games.”
The CEO of AMC, Adam Aron, has proven to be very creative with financing. The company managed to cash in on a windfall after its share price soared during periods when shorts in the company had been severely squeezed by retail traders. This has left the company with enviable options. The company is planning a capital restructuring, including swapping equity for its debt. Details of this won’t be released until next month after AMC Theatres holds a special meeting on March 14 to discuss the deal.
If past history is any indication, there will be a lot of chatter and trading activity in AMC and APE before and after the meeting.
Take Away
The primary reason for a company to contemplate a debt-to-equity swap is to adjust its financing to improve financial conditions. In some cases, the company finds itself being hurt by the cost of servicing its debt, this offers relief. Avoiding any negative news surrounding missing a payment or even bankruptcy is often an underlying reason.
But there can be as many reasons as there are corporate situations. Motorsports Games seem to have hit a home run for their shareholders and their holding company as its share price is now trading over 700% above where it had been before the announced plans.
The massive increase in share price of MSGM is unusual, gains this large are situation dependent. Maintaining a position on a major exchange certainly fed into the rally in its shares.
