Tag: Economy

Consumer Confidence Jumps to Five-Month High, Signaling Economic Optimism

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. consumer confidence increased substantially in December to reach its highest level in five months, according to new data from the Conference Board. The confidence index now stands at 110.7, up sharply from 101.0 in November. This surge in optimism indicates consumers have a brighter economic outlook heading into 2024.

The gains in confidence were broad-based, occurring across all age groups and household income levels. In particular, confidence rose sharply among 35-54 year olds as well as those earning $125,000 per year or more. Consumers grew more upbeat about both current conditions and their short-term expectations for business, jobs, and income growth.

The large improvement in consumer spirits is likely the result of several positive economic developments in recent months. Stock markets have rebounded, mortgage rates have retreated from their peaks, and gas prices have declined significantly. Many shoppers also appear to be returning to more normal holiday spending after two years of pandemic-distorted patterns.

Labor Market Resilience Boosts Spending Power

Driving much of this economic optimism is the continued resilience in the labor market. The survey’s measure of jobs plentiful versus hard to get widened substantially in December. This correlates with the 3.7% unemployment rate, which remains near a 50-year low. Robust hiring conditions and rising wages are supporting the consumer spending that makes up 70% of GDP.

With inflationary pressures also showing signs of cooling from 40-year highs, households have more spending power heading into 2023. Consumers indicated plans to increase purchases of vehicles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months. This points to solid ongoing support for economic growth.

Fed Rate Hikes Could Be Nearing an End

Another factor buoying consumer sentiment is growing expectations that the Fed may pause its rapid interest rate hikes soon. After a cumulative 4.25 percentage points of tightening already delivered, markets are betting on a peak rate below 5% in early 2024.

This prospect of nearing an end to historically-aggressive Fed policy has sparked a powerful rally in rate-sensitive assets like bonds and stocks while boosting housing affordability. With inflation expectations among consumers also falling to the lowest since October 2020, pressure on the central bank to maintain its torrid tightening pace is declining.

Housing Market Poised for Rebound

One key area that could see a revival from lower rates is the housing sector. Existing home sales managed to eke out a small 0.8% gain in November following five straight months of declines. While higher mortgage rates earlier this year crushed housing affordability, the recent rate relief triggered a jump in homebuyer demand.

More consumers reported plans to purchase a home over the next six months than any time since August. However, extremely tight inventory continues hampering sales. There were just 1.13 million homes for sale last month, 60% below pre-pandemic levels. This lack of supply will likely drive further home price appreciation into 2024.

The median existing-home price rose 4% from last year to $387,600 in November. But lower mortgage rates could bring more sellers and buyers to the market. Citigroup economists project stronger price growth next spring and summer as rates have room to decrease further. This would provide a boost to household wealth and consumer spending power.

Economic Growth Appears Solid Entering 2024

Overall, with consumers opening their wallets and the job market thriving, most economists expect the US to avoid a downturn next year. The sharp rise in confidence, spending intentions, and housing market activity all point to continued economic growth in early 2024.

Inflation and Fed policy remain wildcards. But the latest data indicates the price surge has passed its peak. If this trend continues alongside avoiding a spike in unemployment, consumers look primed to keep leading GDP forward. Their renewed optimism signals economic momentum instead of approaching recession as 2024 gets underway.

Has The Fed Hit a Turning Point?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve is on the cusp of a significant policy shift. This Wednesday’s meeting marks a turning point, with a pause on rate increases and a focus on what lies ahead. While the immediate decision is anticipated, the subtle nuances of the Fed’s statement, economic projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference hold the key to understanding the future trajectory of monetary policy.

A Pause in the Rate Hike Cycle:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is virtually certain to hold the benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision reflects the Fed’s recognition of the recent slowdown in inflation, as evidenced by Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report showing core inflation at a 4% annual rate. The aggressive rate hikes have had their intended effect, and the Fed is now in a position to assess the impact and determine the next course of action.

Shifting Narrative: From Hiking to Cutting?

While the pause is a significant development, the Fed’s communication will provide further insights into their future plans. Economists anticipate subtle changes in the post-meeting statement, such as dropping the reference to “additional policy firming” and focusing on achieving the 2% inflation target. These changes would signal a shift in the narrative from focusing on rate hikes to considering potential cuts in the future.

The closely watched dot plot, which reflects individual members’ expectations for future interest rates, will also be scrutinized. The removal of the previously indicated rate increase for this year is expected, but the market’s anticipation of rate cuts starting in May 2024 might be perceived as overly aggressive. Most economists believe the Fed will take a more cautious approach, with cuts likely to materialize in the second half of 2024 or later.

Economic Outlook and the Real Rate:

Alongside the policy decision, the Fed will update its projections for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. While significant changes are not anticipated, these projections will provide valuable information about the current state of the economy and the Fed’s expectations for the future.

The real rate, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, is also a key factor in the Fed’s deliberations. Currently, the real rate stands at 1.8%, significantly above the neutral rate of 0.5%. This high real rate is considered restrictive, meaning it is slowing down economic activity. Chair Powell’s comments will be closely watched for any hints about how the Fed might balance the need to control inflation with the potential for slowing economic growth.

Powell’s Press Conference: Clues for the Future:

The press conference following the meeting will be the most anticipated event of the week. Chair Powell’s remarks will be analyzed for any clues about the Fed’s future plans. While Powell is likely to remain cautious, his comments could provide valuable insights into the Fed’s thinking and their views on the economic outlook.

Markets are eagerly anticipating any indication of a dovish pivot, which could lead to a further surge in equity prices. However, Powell may also address concerns about the recent loosening of financial conditions, emphasizing the Fed’s commitment to achieving their inflation target. Striking a balance between these competing concerns will be a major challenge for Powell and the FOMC.

Looking Ahead: A Cautious Path Forward

The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting marks a significant turning point in their fight against inflation. While the immediate pause in rate hikes is expected, the future trajectory of monetary policy remains uncertain. The Fed will closely monitor the economic data and adjust their policy as needed. The coming months are likely to be characterized by careful consideration and cautious action as the Fed navigates the complex task of balancing inflation control with economic growth.

This article has highlighted the key details of the upcoming Fed meeting and its potential impact on the economy and financial markets. By understanding the nuances of the Fed’s communication and the challenges they face, we can gain a deeper understanding of the future of monetary policy and its implications for businesses, consumers, and investors alike.

Slowing Labor Market Still Relatively Strong Heading into 2024

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest US jobs data released this week points to a cooling labor market as the country heads into 2024, although conditions remain relatively strong compared to historical averages. The Labor Department reported there were 8.7 million job openings in October, down significantly from 9.4 million in September and the lowest level since March 2021.

While job growth is moderating, the labor market retains a level of resilience as employers appear reluctant to lay off workers en masse despite economic uncertainties. The quits rate held steady in October, indicating many Americans still feel secure enough in their job prospects to leave current positions for better opportunities.

However, the days of workers having their pick of jobs may be over, at least for now. Job openings have declined in most sectors, especially healthcare, finance, and hospitality – fields that had gone on major hiring sprees during the pandemic recovery. This reversal follows a series of steep Fed interest rate hikes aimed at cooling runaway inflation by dampening demand across the economy.

So far the Fed seems to have achieved a soft landing for the job market. Employers added a steady 150,000 jobs in October and unemployment remains low at 3.7%. The most recent data is welcome news for the Fed as it tries to bring down consumer prices without triggering a recession and massive job losses.

Heading into 2024, economists expect monthly job gains will average around 170,000 – still solid but below 2023’s pace when the economy added over 400,000 jobs a month. Wage growth is anticipated to continue easing as well.

While layoffs remain limited for now, companies are taking a more cautious stance on hiring, noted Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Business leaders are prepared for an economic downturn, but they are not foreseeing the kind of massive job cuts that happened in past downturns,” she said.

Some sectors still hungry for workers

Certain sectors continue urgently hiring even as the broader labor market slows. Industries like healthcare and technology still report hundreds of thousands of open jobs. Despite downsizing at high-profile firms like Amazon, the tech sector remains starved for engineers, developers and AI talent.

Demand still outweighs supply for many skilled roles. “We have around 300,000 open computing jobs today versus an average of 60,000 open computing jobs before the pandemic,” said Allison Scott, Chief Research Officer at KLA.

Restaurants and the wider hospitality industry also plan to bulk up staffing after cutting back earlier this year. American Hotel & Lodging Association CEO Katherine Lugar expects hotels to hire over 700,000 workers in 2024.

Traffic, bookings and travel spending are rebounding. “As we continue working our way back, hiring has picked up,” Lugar noted.

Uncertainties Cloud 2024 Outlook

Economists warn many uncertainties persist around inflation, consumer spending and business sentiment heading into 2024. “The outlook for next year is tough to forecast,” said Oren Klachkin of Oxford Economics. “A lot hinges on whether the Fed can tame inflation without severely harming employment.”

While the Fed intends to keep rates elevated for some time, markets increasingly expect a rate cut in 2024 if inflation continues cooling and economic growth stalls.

For jobseekers and workers, 2024 promises slower but steadier hiring without the wage bidding wars and unprecedented quitting rates seen last year. However, landing a new job may require more effort amid mounting competition.

The days of an ultra-tight labor market may have passed, but for now at least, most employers still remain eager to retain and recruit staff despite the slowing economy. The soft landing continues, but turbulence could still be ahead.

NobleCon19 Economic Perspectives – 2024: Boom or Bust?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


The Economic Perspectives Panel’s discussions at the recent NobleCon19 emerging growth conference not only provided valuable insights into various sectors and the broader economic landscape but also served as a comprehensive analysis that captivated the audience’s attention. The panel, featuring a diverse range of experts from industry leaders to economists, offered nuanced perspectives on the challenges that have characterized markets since 2021 and identified potential opportunities, notably emphasizing the potential for undervalued small-cap investments.

The conference kicked off with an Economic Outlook Panel, expertly moderated by Michael Williams, a seasoned News Anchor at WPTV/NBC in West Palm Beach. Williams adeptly steered the discussions through key topics, leveraging the wealth of knowledge from panelists such as Lisa Knutson, COO of E.W. Scripps; Cary Marshall, CFO of Alliance Resource Partners; Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers; Shanoop Kothari, Co-CEO of LuxUrban Hotels; and Dan Thelen, Managing Director of Small/Mid Caps at Ancora.

A prevailing sentiment among the panelists was the intriguing possibility of 2024 mirroring the economic resurgence experienced in 1990, a year that followed a challenging period. Notably, the consensus was that small-cap investments tend to outperform larger companies during economic recoveries due to their inherent agility and greater potential for growth. The panel expressed cautious optimism, suggesting that the Russell 2000 index might pleasantly surprise investors in the upcoming year.

The discussion also spotlighted sectors of particular interest, with media and advertising taking center stage. The anticipation of heavy political ad spending, estimated at an impressive $10-12 billion leading up to the 2024 election, captured the attention of the panel. Additionally, the oil and gas markets were under scrutiny, with a notable supply response identified as a contributing factor in curbing recent inflation concerns. Projections indicated a forecasted addition of 2.2 million extra barrels per day in the US in 2023, with prices already having experienced a 17% drop from their earlier peak in the year.

Delving into broader economic discussions, the panel highlighted the resilience observed in 2023 to date, supported by a robust labor market and excess pandemic savings fueling consumption. However, the panel cautioned against undue optimism, pointing to expectations of a potential slowdown in 2024, particularly as the Federal Reserve eases interest rates and government spending recedes. The acceptance of a 3-3.5% baseline inflation in the long term was posited as a necessary acknowledgment, notwithstanding the official 2% target.

While acknowledging potential risks in the commercial real estate sector, the panel expressed confidence that forward-thinking companies were actively engaged in cost-cutting measures and prudent inventory management. The overarching expectation was that stock returns would follow a trajectory reminiscent of the positive trends witnessed in 1990, thereby making small-cap investments an attractive prospect for investors keen on capitalizing on emerging opportunities.

Addressing the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on various facets of business and society, the panel collectively agreed that AI is not just a passing trend but a transformative force that is here to stay. Cary Marshall went as far as declaring, “AI is the electrification of this country.” While recognizing the potential for AI to reduce labor costs, the panelists cautioned that widespread adoption might take longer than initially anticipated. Jose Torres added a nuanced perspective, suggesting that AI could lead to shorter workdays but expressed concerns about the potential erosion of interpersonal skills critical for persuasion and influence.

In conclusion, the panel emphasized the indispensable need for mental toughness, emotion management, and discipline in navigating the inevitable cycles of the markets. Despite the multifaceted challenges, the prevailing sentiment was one of guarded optimism for the road ahead. As markets continue to evolve and present new dynamics, these key takeaways from the Economic Perspectives Panel offer invaluable insights for investors seeking to navigate the intricate landscape of emerging growth and economic recovery, providing a robust foundation for strategic decision-making in the ever-changing financial environment.

Inflation Edges Higher in October but Shows Ongoing Signs of Cooling

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

New government data released Thursday indicates that inflation ticked slightly higher in October but remained on a broader cooling trajectory as price pressures continue moderating from 40-year highs reached earlier this year. The report provides further evidence that the rapid pace of price increases may be starting to steadily decelerate, supporting the Federal Reserve’s recent inclination to halt its aggressive interest rate hike campaign.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.2% last month and 3.5% over the past year. This matched consensus economist forecasts. The core PCE index strips out volatile food and energy costs to provide a clearer view underlying price trends.

While still well above the Fed’s 2% target, the annual increase was down from 5.3% in February. The incremental monthly gain showed prices climbing at a more restrained pace after an intense burst earlier this year.

“The Fed is on hold for now but their pivot to rate cuts is getting closer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “Inflation is clearly slowing.”

Markets are already betting policymakers won’t hike rates again this cycle, and may even start cutting in 2024 to bolster growth as price pressures continue easing. The latest data provides credibility to the idea that the Fed’s rapid rate hikes since March, which have raised its benchmark to a 15-year high, have begun achieving their intended effect of reining in demand and cooling the economy enough to tame inflation back toward manageable levels.

Still Cautious on Further Easing

However, Fed officials stressed that rates will still need to remain at restrictive levels for some time to ensure inflation continues descending toward the central bank’s 2% target.

New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday he expects inflation to keep drifting lower, finally hitting the Fed’s goal by 2025. But he emphasized rates will likely need to stay elevated until then to completely quell price pressures.

Other Fed policymakers also struck a cautious tone on prematurely ending rate hikes before inflation is convincingly on a path back towards the 2% goal. Many noted that while price increases may be peaking, inflation remains stubbornly high and consumer demand continues holding up more than feared despite rapid rate rises this year.

Moderating Labor Market Could Allow Rate Cuts

There were some early signs in Thursday’s data that the torrid job market may also finally be cooling slightly after persisting at unsustainable levels through much of the year.

The report showed continuing jobless claims climbed to 1.93 million in mid-November, their highest mark since November 2021. The number of Americans applying for ongoing unemployment benefits has risen by more than 80,000 since October.

While still historically low, the increase could provide Fed officials confidence that their rate hikes have begun not only slowing demand and price growth, but also easing excessively tight labor market conditions they have said contributed to rapid wage and inflation surges.

An easing job market that reduces wage pressures could give the Fed leeway next year to shift their priority toward sustaining growth and cut rates to spur a slowing economy, especially as other inflationary pressures subside.

Consumers Keeping Pace For Now

On the growth side, the report showed some signs of resilience among consumers even in the face of elevated inflation and rising borrowing costs.

Personal income and consumer spending both edged up 0.2% in October, indicating households are so far keeping pace with rising prices digging into their paychecks. Services like travel and healthcare saw particularly solid spending last month.

Surveys show consumers remain relatively upbeat thanks to still-ample savings and solid income growth. But many Fed officials have noted anecdotally that households appear to be pulling back spending more than aggregate data indicates so far. Any sharper-than-expected deceleration in consumer demand would give policymakers leeway to pivot toward supporting growth.

Eyes on Services Inflation

Some economists noted that while goods prices have cooled sharply from peaks last year amid improving supply issues, services costs remain stubbornly high for now as resilience in consumer demand combined with rising wage growth enables firms to pass higher labor expenses to customers.

“Inflation is moderating with goods prices leading the charge,” said economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics. But she said core services costs actually ticked up in October, bearing monitoring to ensure price stability as the economy shifts more toward services consumption over goods.

With strong income gains and accumulated savings still underpinning spending for now, officials emphasized rates may need to stay higher for longer to ensure the progress made on easing price pressures sticks.

“I expect it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some me to fully restore balance and to bring inflation back to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis,” said the New York Fed’s Williams on Thursday.

Pending Home Sales Plunge to Lowest Levels in Over 20 Years

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly plunged in October to their lowest levels since record-keeping began over two decades ago, even below readings seen during the housing crisis in 2008.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Thursday that its index of pending sales contracts signed on existing homes retreated 1.5% from September. On an annual basis, signings were a staggering 8.5% lower than the same month last year.

October’s reading marks a continuation of the housing market’s steep slide over the past year from blistering pandemic-era sales levels as mortgage rates rocket higher in the most dramatic housing finance shake-up in decades.

“Recent weeks’ successive declines in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Spike in Mortgage Rates Strangles Demand

The October pending home sales data reflects buyer activity when popular 30-year fixed mortgage rates shot up above 8% in mid-October before settling back around 7% in more recent weeks.

Skyrocketing borrowing costs over the past year have rapidly depleted home shoppers’ budgets and purchasing power, squeezing huge numbers of Americans out of the market entirely and forcing others to downgrade to lower price points.

With the average rate on a 30-year fixed loan more than double year-ago levels despite the recent retreat, still-high financing costs in tandem with stubbornly elevated home prices continue dampening affordability and sales.

All U.S. regions saw contract signings decline on a monthly basis in October except the Northeast. The Western market, where homes are typically the nation’s most expensive, recorded the largest monthly drop.

Pending transactions fell across all price tiers below $500,000 while rising for homes above that threshold. The shift partly reflects moderately improving supply conditions on the high end, even as demand rapidly recedes at lower price points.

Home Prices Still Climbing for Now

Even against shrinking demand, exceedingly tight inventories of homes listed for sale have so far prevented any meaningful cooling in the torrid home price appreciation that’s stretched affordability near the breaking point for many buyers.

The median existing home sales price rose 6.6% on the year in October to $379,100. While marking a slowdown from mid-2021, when prices were soaring 20% annually, it still represents an acceleration over the 5.7% rate seen last October.

With few homes hitting the market, bidding wars continue breaking out for even modest starter homes in many areas. In such seller-favorable conditions, a plunge in overall sales does little to crimp further rapid home value growth.

Leading indicators suggest home prices likely still have further to climb before lackluster sales and eroding affordability force more substantive cooling. But shifts in home values and sales usually lag moves in rates and mortgage activity by several months.

“The significant decline in pending sales suggests…further weakness in closed existing home sales in upcoming months,” said Swiss bank UBS economist Jonathan Woloshin.

With mortgage activity plunging to a quarter-century low, actual completed sales are widely expected to continue deteriorating into early next year or beyond as the pipe of signed deals still working through the market keeps drying up.

Path Ahead for Housing Market

Most economists expect home sales will likely continue slumping over the next six months or so until lower financing costs combined with a slow improving inventory offer some stability.

“We think housing activity has little prospect of bottoming out until spring 2024, at the earliest,” said Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics. She projects existing home sales will fall nearly 25% in 2024 from current-year levels.

Other analysts say still-strong demographics and a solid job market should prevent an all-out housing collapse, but that robust spring and summer recovery rallies like those seen earlier this century are unlikely in coming years.

Instead, as mortgage rates settle somewhere above 6% and homes trickle back on the market, sales activity should slowly stabilize around 10-15% below 2018-2019 levels through 2024 and beyond – marking a ‘new normal’ after ultra-hot pandemic conditions.

“I expect mortgage rates to moderate…helping home sales firm up a bit, but still remain below pre-pandemic activity,” said Yun. With fresh records signaling just how devastating this year’s rate spike proved for buyers, Yun expects the spring thaw in housing demand could come slower next year than markets anticipate.

Strong Business Spending and Government Demand Drive Upward Q3 GDP Revision

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

US economic output grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the third quarter, according to revised GDP data released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. The upgraded third quarter growth paints a picture of resilient business and government spending offsetting slowing consumer demand.

GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 5.2% during the July to September period, topping the advance reading of 4.9% growth. Upward revisions were fueled primarily by fixed business investment and government expenditures proving stronger than expected.

Corporate Investments Defy Recession Fears
As rising rates threaten housing and construction, many economists feared companies would pull back on equipment investments amid an uncertain outlook. However, nonresidential fixed investment, encompassing structures, equipment, intellectual property and more, rose 1.3% in Q3.

While this marked a steep decline from 6.1% growth in Q2, business spending has moderated far less than feared. Companies seem focused on funding promising productivity enhancements even as they trim costs elsewhere. Tech and machinery upgrades that drive efficiency and cut costs over the long term remain attractive.

Surprisingly resilient corporate investment provided vital ballast for growth last quarter. Coupled with still-healthy consumer spending, albeit revised down slightly, business capital outlays appear sufficient to keep the US out of recession territory for now.

Government Spending Spikes
In addition to business investment, government expenditures at the federal, state and local levels increased 5.8% in Q3, meaningfully higher than early readings. Surging defense spending as well as state investments in education drove elevated government consumption.

With Democrats in control of Congress and the White House, pandemic-era support programs also continued stimulating significant public sector demand.

Consumer Engine Slows but Remains Solid
Although personal consumption spending fell short of initial 4% growth estimates and instead rose a still-strong 3.6%, households continue underpinning US growth. A super-tight jobs market, rising wages and abundant savings for higher-income Americans seem sufficient to maintain solid consumer demand.

However, with borrowing costs jumping and inflation eating away at incomes, an evident slowdown in spending ahead of the crucial holiday season presents economic risks. Any further erosion of consumption could spur layoffs and trigger recessionary conditions. For now at least, consumers appear positioned to continue carrying the torch.

Strong Growth But Uncertainty Lingers
Thanks to business and government resilience, Q3 expansion topped already lofty expectations. This provides a sturdy launching pad heading into year-end. But with the Fed aggressively tightening policy and key trading partners teetering on the brink of recession, clouds linger on the horizon. Another quarter of solid growth could be the high water mark before a challenging 2024.

Yellen: Food, Rent Inflation Clouding View of Economy

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently pointed to persistently high food and rent prices as a major reason why public perception of the economy remains negative, despite progress on overall inflation. With President Biden’s reelection chances closely tied to economic views, this consumer disconnect poses a threat.

In an interview with CNBC, Yellen acknowledged inflation rates have meaningfully declined from last year’s 40-year highs. However, she noted that “Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic.”

While the administration touts top-line statistics pointing to economic strength, Yellen admitted that “this remains notable to people who go to the store and shop.”

Rent inflation also sticks out painfully to consumers, even as broader price growth cools. “Rents are rising less quickly now, but are certainly higher than they were before the pandemic,” Yellen said.

Polls Reveal Sour Public Mood Despite “Bidenomics”

This stubborn inflation in highly visible categories is clashing with the White House’s rosier messaging. The administration has dubbed the economy “Bidenomics” and trumpets metrics like robust job gains.

But almost 60% of voters disapprove of Biden’s economic leadership in the latest polling. His approval rating lags the economic data as people feel pinched by prices at the grocery store and housing costs.

Per Yellen, the disconnect boils down to prices remaining “higher than they used to be accustomed to.” She stressed the administration must now “explain to Americans what President Biden has done to improve the economy.”

Yellen expressed optimism views will shift “as inflation comes down, prices stop rising, and the labor market remains strong.” Time will tell if this turnaround happens soon enough to impact the 2024 election.

Food Prices Remain a Stinging Reminder of Inflation’s Sting

Of all consumer goods, food prices stand out as a persistent driver of inflation angst. Grocery bills grew 12% year-over-year in October, far above the 7.7% overall inflation rate. From eggs to lunch meats, few foods escape sticker shock at the store.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine damaged vital grain supplies, resulting in huge price spikes for wheat, corn and cooking oils. Lingering supply chain dysfunction continues hampering food transport and packaging.

Restaurants also face higher food costs, which owners pass along through bigger menu price tags. Rising labor costs further squeeze restaurant margins.

In all, grocery and dining prices have become stinging daily reminders that inflation remains an economic burden. This clouds public sentiment despite falling gas prices and cheaper consumer goods.

Rents and Housing Costs Also Weigh Heavily on Consumers

Along with food, Yellen called out persistent rent inflation as a culprit of economic gloom. Annual rent growth sits around 7%, down from last year but still squeezing household budgets.

Low rental vacancy rates give landlords continued pricing power in many markets. While mortgage rates have shot higher, rents have yet to meaningfully slow for lack of alternatives.

Surging rents are especially painful due to housing’s outsize impact on living costs. One report estimated that housing accounts for 40% of a typical family’s inflation burden.

Beyond rent, housing costs like property taxes, homeowner insurance, and home services are also outpacing overall inflation. And higher mortgage rates make buying a home even less affordable.

These housing stresses help explain why such a large majority of Americans still rate current economic conditions as poor. With shelter eating up more paychecks, consumers feel deprived despite broader progress.

All Eyes on Food and Housing Costs as Midterms Approach

Yellen made clear that stubborn inflation in categories like food and rent is the administration’s biggest obstacle to touting economic gains. As President Biden gears up for a likely 2024 reelection bid, perceptions of the economy will carry substantial weight.

Democrats are hoping the public mood brightens as the impact of cooling prices materializes. But that remains uncertain with high-visibility costs still stinging consumers.

If relief arrives soon across grocery aisles and rent rolls, voters may yet reward President Biden and Democrats for delivering an overdue inflation reprieve. But the clock is ticking with the 2024 campaign cycle fast approaching.

For now, Biden’s political fate remains tied to the cost of bread and monthly housing bills. If lidding inflation can make such necessities feel affordable again, the president may stand to benefit.

Millions of Gig Workers May Be Missing from Monthly Jobs Data

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Each month the U.S. Labor Department releases its closely-watched jobs report, providing key employment statistics that the Federal Reserve monitors to gauge the health of the economy. However, new research suggests these monthly figures may be significantly undercounting workers, specifically those in the rising “gig economy.”

Economists estimate the undercount could range from hundreds of thousands to as many as 13 million gig workers. This discrepancy suggests the labor market may be even tighter than the official statistics indicate, allowing more room for employment growth before hitting problematic levels of inflation.

Gig Workers Slip Through the Cracks

Gig workers, such as Uber drivers, freelancers, and casual laborers, often don’t consider themselves part of the workforce or even “employed” in the traditional sense. As a result, when responding to government labor surveys, they fail to identify themselves as active participants in the job market.

Researchers Anat Bracha and Mary Burke examined this response pattern by comparing informal work surveys with standard employment surveys. They uncovered a troubling gap where potentially millions of gig workers get missed each month in the jobs data.

For the Fed, Underestimating Tightness Raises Risks

For the Federal Reserve, accurate employment statistics are critical to promoting its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. If the labor market is tighter than the data suggests, it could force Fed policymakers to act more aggressively with interest rate hikes to ward off inflationary pressures.

An undercount means the economy likely has more remaining labor supply before hitting problematic levels of inflation-fueling tightness. With more Americans able to work productively without triggering price hikes, the Fed may not need to cool off the job market as quickly.

Implications for Fed Policy Decisions

In recent years, the Fed has dramatically revised its estimates for full employment to account for the lack of rising inflation despite ultra-low unemployment. Recognizing millions more gig workers could further adjust views on labor market capacity.

According to the researchers, the uncounted gig workers indicate the economy has had more room to grow without excessive inflation than recognized. As a result, they argue the Fed’s benchmark for tight labor markets could be revised upwards, allowing for less aggressive rate hikes.

Gig Workforce Expected to Expand Post-Pandemic

The gig economy workforce has swelled over the past decade. But the COVID-19 pandemic triggered massive layoffs, confusing estimates of its true size.

As the economy rebounds, gig work is expected to continue expanding. Younger generations show a preference for the flexibility of gig roles over traditional 9-to-5 employment. Moreover, companies are incentivized to hire temporary contract laborers to reduce benefit costs.

Accurately capturing this crucial and expanding segment of the workforce in monthly jobs data is necessary for the Fed to make informed policy moves. The research highlights an urgent need to refine labor survey approaches to avoid missteps.

Adapting Surveys to Evolve with the Economy

Government surveys designed decades ago need to adapt to reflect the rapidly changing nature of work. Respondents should be explicitly asked whether they engage in gig work and probed on their monthly hours and earnings.

Modernizing measurement approaches could reveal a hidden bounty of untapped labor supply and productivity from gig workers. With more accurate insight into true employment levels, the Fed can better balance its dual goals and promote an economy that benefits all Americans.

Stock Markets Rally Back: A Beacon of Hope Emerges

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After a tumultuous year marked by soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty, the stock markets are finally beginning to show signs of recovery. The recent surge in the Russell 2000, a small-cap index, is a particularly encouraging sign, indicating that investors are regaining confidence and seeking out growth opportunities. This positive momentum is fueled by several factors, including signs of inflation subsiding, the likelihood of no further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and renewed interest in small-cap companies.

Inflation Under Control

The primary driver of the market’s recent rally is the easing of inflationary pressures. After reaching a 40-year high in June, inflation has been steadily declining, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing a year-over-year increase of 6.2%. This moderation in inflation is a welcome relief for investors and consumers alike, as it reduces the burden on household budgets and businesses’ operating costs.

No More Rate Hikes on the Horizon

In response to the surge in inflation, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive monetary tightening campaign, raising interest rates at an unprecedented pace. These rate hikes were necessary to curb inflation but also had a dampening effect on economic growth and put downward pressure on stock prices. However, with inflation now on a downward trajectory, the Fed is expected to slow down its rate-hiking cycle. This prospect is positive for the stock market, as it reduces the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions and allows businesses and investors to plan accordingly.

Capital Flows Back to Small Caps

The recent rally in the Russell 2000 is a testament to the renewed interest in small-cap companies. These companies, often considered to be more sensitive to economic conditions than their larger counterparts, have been hit hard by the market volatility of the past year. However, as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook, they are turning their attention back to small caps, which offer the potential for higher growth and returns.

Light at the End of the Tunnel

The stock market’s recent rally is a promising sign that the worst may be over for investors. While there may still be challenges ahead, the easing of inflation, the prospect of no further rate hikes, and the renewed interest in small-cap companies suggest that there is light at the end of the tunnel. As investors regain confidence and seek out growth opportunities, the stock market is poised for a continued recovery.

Additional Factors Contributing to the Rally

In addition to the factors mentioned above, there are a few other developments that are contributing to the stock market’s recovery. These include:

  • Strong corporate earnings: Despite the economic slowdown, many companies have reported better-than-expected earnings in recent quarters. This suggests that businesses are able to navigate the current challenges and remain profitable.
  • Improved investor sentiment: Investor sentiment has improved in recent months, as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook and the prospects for corporate earnings.
  • Increased retail investor participation: Retail investors have been a major force in the stock market in recent years, and their continued participation is helping to support the rally.

The Road Ahead

While the stock market has shown signs of recovery, there are still some risks that investors should be aware of. These include:

  • The possibility of a recession: While the economy is slowing down, there is still a possibility that it could tip into a recession. This would have a negative impact on corporate earnings and stock prices.
  • Geopolitical tensions: The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty and could lead to market volatility.
  • Rising interest rates: Even if the Fed slows down its rate-hiking cycle, interest rates are still expected to be higher than they were before the pandemic. This could continue to put pressure on stock prices.

Despite these risks, the overall outlook for the stock market is positive. The easing of inflation, the prospect of no further rate hikes, and the renewed interest in small-cap companies are all positive signs that suggest the market is on a path to recovery. As investors regain confidence and seek out growth opportunities, the stock market is poised to continue its upward trajectory.

From Inflation to Deflation: A Seasonal Shift in Consumer Prices

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Consumers tapped out from inflation may finally get a reprieve this holiday season in the form of falling prices. According to Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, deflation could be on the horizon.

On a Thursday earnings call, McMillon said the retail giant expects to see deflationary trends emerge in the coming weeks and months. He pointed to general merchandise and key grocery items like eggs, chicken, and seafood that have already seen notable price decreases.

McMillon added that even stubbornly high prices for pantry staples are expected to start dropping soon. “In the U.S., we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” he said, welcoming the change as a benefit to financially strapped customers.

His comments echo optimism from other major retailers that inflation may have peaked. Earlier this week, Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail remarked that “the worst of the inflationary environment is behind us.”

Government data also hints the pricing pressures are easing. The consumer price index (CPI) for October was flat compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, dipped to a two-year low.

This emerging deflationary environment is a reprieve after over a year of runaway inflation that drove the cost of living to 40-year highs. Everything from groceries to household utilities saw dramatic price hikes that squeezed family budgets.

But the October CPI readings suggest the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes are having the desired effect of reining in excessive inflation. As supply chains normalize and consumer demand cools, prices are softening across many categories.

For instance, the American Farm Bureau Federation calculates that the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 will be $64.05 this year – down 4.5% from 2022’s record high of $67.01. The drop is attributed largely to a decrease in turkey prices.

Still, consumers aren’t out of the woods yet when it comes to stubborn inflation on essentials. While prices are down from their peak, they remain elevated compared to historical norms.

Grocery prices at Walmart are up mid-single digits versus 2022, though up high-teens compared to 2019. Many other household basics like rent, medical care, and vehicle insurance continue to rise at above average rates.

And American shopping habits reflect the impact of lingering inflation. Walmart CFO John David Rainey noted consumers have waited for discounts before purchasing goods such as Black Friday deals.

McMillon indicated shoppers are still monitoring spending carefully. So while deflationary pressure is a tailwind, Walmart doesn’t expect an abrupt return to pre-pandemic spending patterns.

The retailer hopes to see food prices in particular come down faster, as grocery inflation eats up a significant chunk of household budgets. But experts warn it could take the rest of 2023 before inflation fully normalizes.

Consumers have been resilient yet cautious under economic uncertainty. If deflation takes root across the retail landscape, it could provide much-needed relief to wallets and mark a turning point toward recovery. For now, the environment looks favorable for a little more jingle in shoppers’ pockets this holiday season.

US Economy Achieving ‘Soft Landing’ as Inflation Cools Without Recession

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Against the odds, the US economy appears poised to stick the landing from a period of scorching inflation without plunging into recession. This smooth descent towards more normal inflation, known as a “soft landing”, has defied most economists’ expectations thus far.

Just months ago, fears of an imminent downturn were widespread. Yet October’s inflation print showed consumer prices rising 3.2% annually – down markedly from a 40-year high of 9.1% in 2022. More importantly, core inflation excluding food and energy eased to 2.8% over the last 5 months – barely above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

This disinflation is occurring while job gains continue and economic growth rebounds. Employers added a solid 204,000 jobs per month over the past quarter. GDP growth also accelerated to a robust 4.9% annualized pace in Q3, its fastest since late 2021.

Such resilience has led forecasters like Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten to now predict, “What we are expecting now is a soft landing.” Avoiding outright recession while taming inflation would be a major feat. In the past 80 years, the Fed has never managed it without sparking downturns.

Cooling inflation gives the central bank room to moderate its fierce rate hike campaign. Since March, the Fed lifted its benchmark rate range to a restrictive 5.25%-5.50% from near zero to squash rising prices.

Investors are betting these tightening efforts have succeeded, with futures implying rate cuts could come as early as May 2023. Markets rallied strongly after October’s consumer price report.

Risks Remain
However, risks abound on the path to a soft landing. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s goal, consumer spending is softening, and ongoing rate hikes could still bite.

“It looks like a soft landing until there’s some turbulence and things get hairier,” warns Indeed economist Nick Bunker.

While consumers powered the economy earlier in recovery, retail sales just declined for the first time since March. Major retailers like Home Depot and Target reveal shoppers are pulling back. If consumers continue retreating, recession odds could rise again.

The Fed likely needs more definitive proof before declaring victory over inflation. Chairman Jerome Powell still stresses the need for “sufficiently restrictive” rates to hit the 2% target sustainably.

Further shocks like energy price spikes or financial instability could also knock the economy off its delicate balancing act. For now, the coveted soft landing finally looks achievable, but hazards remain if inflation or growth falter.

Navigating the Descent
Amid this precarious environment, how should investors, policymakers and everyday Americans navigate the descent?

For the Fed, it means walking a tightrope between overtightening and loosening prematurely. Moving too fast risks recession, while moving too slowly allows inflation to become re-entrenched. Gradually slowing rate hikes as data improves can guide a gentle landing.

Investors should prepare for further turbulence, holding diversified assets that hedge against inflation or market swings. Seeking prudent VALUE rather than chasing speculative growth is wise at this late stage of recovery.

Consumers may need to budget conservatively, pay down debts, and boost emergency savings funds. With caution, America may yet stick an elusive soft landing during this perilous inflationary journey.

Congress Averts Government Shutdown, But Fight Over Debt Limit Looms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

With a government shutdown set to hit at the end of this week if new funding legislation wasn’t passed, Congress has acted swiftly to approve a short-term spending bill. The so-called “continuing resolution” will keep federal agencies open and running until January 19 for some programs and February 2 for others.

The bill easily cleared the Democratic-controlled House on Tuesday with bipartisan support. This followed the backing of Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had proposed the novel “laddered” approach to stagger program expiration dates. The bill now heads to the Senate, where both Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have voiced support. With President Biden also signaling he will sign it, a shutdown appears to have been averted.

For investors, the passage of this stopgap bill means reduced short-term economic uncertainty. A shutdown would have disrupted many key government services as hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed. This can dampen consumer and business sentiment. While the stock market has mostly shaken off prior shutdowns, an extended one could still eventually take a toll.

Yet longer-term risks remain on the horizon, especially regarding the fast-approaching debt ceiling. Come June, the government will hit its statutory borrowing limit, which could set up an intense fiscal battle. If the ceiling isn’t raised or suspended in time, the U.S. could default on its debt for the first time ever. Such an unprecedented event would surely roil markets.

With Speaker Johnson facing pressure from the right flank of his Republican caucus to extract steep spending cuts and other concessions in exchange for lifting the borrowing cap, the stage is set for a high-stakes showdown. Democrats have adamantly opposed using the debt limit as a bargaining chip.

For now, investors may breathe a small sigh of relief. But the reprieve could be short-lived. Once the government funding issue is settled, focus will shift to addressing the debt ceiling well before the June deadline. Otherwise, a far more damaging crisis than a temporary shutdown could be on tap, potentially threatening the full faith and credit of the United States along with the stability of financial markets.

Beyond the recurring fiscal battles, investors will continue monitoring the overall health of the U.S. economy amid rising interest rates and stubborn inflation. Though job growth and consumer spending have been bright spots, risks of recession still loom. Stock market volatility reflects these crosscurrents. For long-term investors, diversification and temperance remain key as policy uncertainty persists.

Looking ahead, the specter of a government default looms large. The debt ceiling debate is a critical juncture that could have widespread implications not just for the financial markets but for the broader economy. The potential fallout from a failure to raise the debt ceiling includes disruptions in government payments, increased borrowing costs, and a loss of confidence in the U.S. financial system.

The debt ceiling has been a recurrent point of contention in recent years, with temporary agreements often reached to avert a crisis. However, the underlying issues of fiscal responsibility, spending priorities, and partisan gridlock persist. The consequences of a protracted deadlock on the debt ceiling could be severe, with ripple effects felt globally.

In the midst of these challenges, investors must navigate an environment marked by uncertainty. While the short-term resolution of the government funding issue provides a momentary sense of stability, the underlying risks and complexities of fiscal policy remain. As the nation grapples with these fiscal challenges, market participants should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies to navigate potential shifts in the economic landscape.

In conclusion, the recent passage of the short-term spending bill averted an immediate government shutdown, providing a respite for investors. However, the focus now turns to the looming debt ceiling debate, introducing a new set of challenges and uncertainties. As events unfold, market participants will need to carefully assess the evolving situation and make informed decisions to mitigate risks in an ever-changing economic and political landscape.