Category: Tech

China’s E-commerce Giants Surge After Stimulus Package Boost

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo stocks soar after China announces new monetary stimulus measures.
– The People’s Bank of China released $140 billion in liquidity by cutting interest rates and reserve requirements.
– Skepticism remains over whether these measures will lead to long-term economic recovery.

China’s major e-commerce players—Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo—saw a significant stock surge on Tuesday after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled its first major stimulus package since the pandemic. The central bank’s efforts aim to inject liquidity into the economy and spark growth amid ongoing challenges in the property market and reduced consumer demand.

Shares of Alibaba rose by 7%, while JD.com jumped 11%, and Pinduoduo saw an increase of nearly 10%. This sharp rise followed the PBOC’s announcement of key interest rate cuts and a reduction in reserve requirements for banks. These measures are expected to free up around 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in liquidity, making it easier for businesses and households to access loans at lower interest rates.

The stimulus comes at a critical time for China’s economy, which has been grappling with a cooling property market and weaker-than-expected demand in recent months. The government’s regulatory crackdown on tech companies over the last few years further compounded the struggles of companies like Alibaba and JD.com. At the height of this crackdown, Alibaba was slapped with a $2.6 billion fine for antitrust violations. Despite some recovery in 2024, these companies remain far from their 2020 stock price highs.

The tech sector, which includes major firms such as Baidu, Tencent, and NetEase, saw a broad rally following the announcement. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Hang Seng indexes all rose over 4%, reflecting optimism among investors about the new economic measures.

While the stock market responded favorably, some experts remain cautious about the long-term impact of China’s stimulus efforts. Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist, Jeffrey Kleintop, expressed doubts that these moves will be enough to stabilize China’s property market or significantly improve household incomes. “A lower mortgage rate on existing loans might help households, but it doesn’t do anything to arrest the decline in property prices or aggregate incomes or jobs,” said Kleintop. Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth echoed these sentiments, noting that similar announcements in the past have generated excitement but did not produce sustained economic improvements.

The stakes are high for China’s economy, which has long been seen as a key driver of global growth. As the world’s second-largest economy, a slowdown in China could have ripple effects across international markets. Investors are keenly watching whether these new stimulus measures will generate enough momentum to help China regain its footing and whether companies like Alibaba and JD.com can continue to capitalize on a more favorable economic environment.

Despite the skepticism, the stock surge offers a brief respite for Chinese e-commerce firms, which have faced intense pressure over the last few years. While these gains are encouraging, the question remains whether this upward trajectory will last or if more comprehensive measures will be needed to keep China’s economic recovery on track.

Key Factors Shaping Q3 2024’s Financial Markets

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

As we enter the third quarter of 2024, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming June jobs report, which will provide crucial insights into the state of the U.S. labor market. This report, set to be released on Friday, July 5, is expected to show a cooling but still resilient job market, with forecasts predicting 188,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added and unemployment holding steady at 4%.

The jobs report comes at a pivotal time, as the stock market has seen impressive gains in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 is up 14.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has surged over 18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, has posted a more modest gain of 3.8%.

These gains have been largely driven by a handful of tech giants, with over two-thirds of the S&P 500’s increase attributed to just seven companies: Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Broadcom. Notably, Nvidia alone accounts for nearly one-third of these gains, underscoring the outsized impact of the AI boom on market performance.

This concentration of gains has sparked debate among market watchers about whether the rally will broaden to other sectors in the second half of the year. So far, only two sectors – Communications Services and Information Technology – have outperformed the S&P 500, both up more than 18%.

The dominance of tech companies is expected to continue into the second quarter earnings season. The six largest tech firms (Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta) are projected to grow their earnings by an impressive 31.7%, far outpacing the overall S&P 500’s expected growth of 7.8%.

This stark contrast in earnings growth has helped fuel the ongoing rally in tech stocks. Since March 31, while the S&P 500’s earnings estimates have dipped by just 0.1% (compared to a typical 3.3% decline), estimates for the top six tech companies have actually been revised upward by 3.9%.

As we move into the third quarter, investors and analysts will be closely watching whether these tech behemoths can maintain their stellar performance. The sustainability of their earnings growth remains a key question that could significantly impact market direction in the coming months.

Meanwhile, the broader economic picture continues to evolve. Recent inflation data has shown positive trends, with prices increasing at their slowest pace since March 2021. This development, combined with signs of a gradual cooling in the labor market, has led some economists to argue that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.

However, the Fed has maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates, focusing on bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The upcoming jobs report and other economic indicators will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s future policy decisions.

As we head into a holiday-shortened trading week, with markets closing early on July 3 and remaining closed on July 4 for Independence Day, investors will have limited time to digest the latest economic data. The week will see releases on manufacturing and services sector activity, job openings, and private payrolls, culminating in Friday’s all-important jobs report.

In conclusion, as we begin Q3 2024, the market remains buoyant but highly concentrated in the tech sector. The interplay between economic data, Fed policy, and the performance of tech giants will likely define the market’s trajectory in the coming months, with all eyes on whether the rally can broaden beyond the current narrow leadership.

Trump Media’s Truth Social Faces Market Turmoil as Shares Plummet

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The digital media landscape is witnessing a dramatic shakeup as Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind the conservative social network Truth Social, experiences a sharp decline in its stock value. The Nasdaq-listed company, trading under the ticker DJT, has seen its shares plummet by over 40% since early June, opening at a mere $27 per share on Thursday. This downturn has sent shockwaves through the social media stock market, raising questions about the future of alternative platforms in an increasingly competitive digital ecosystem.

The sell-off intensified Thursday, with shares sinking as much as 15% shortly after the opening bell, continuing a trend that has wiped billions from the company’s market capitalization. This steep decline has had a profound impact on the paper wealth of former President Donald Trump, the majority stakeholder in the company. Trump’s 114,750,000 shares, once valued at over $5.6 billion in early June, have now plummeted to around $3.2 billion – a staggering loss of approximately $2.4 billion in less than a month.

The catalyst for this market turbulence appears to be rooted in recent legal developments. The company’s stock began its downward spiral on May 30, coinciding with a New York jury’s decision to convict the former president on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. This legal setback has evidently shaken investor confidence, highlighting the potential risks associated with companies closely tied to controversial public figures.

Adding to the tumult, Trump Media recently reached a crucial milestone in its regulatory journey. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) declared the company’s registration statement effective, a development that triggered significant market reaction. The stock fell nearly 10% during Tuesday’s trading session on more than double the average volume, followed by a further 17% plunge in after-hours trading following the announcement.

This SEC approval marks a pivotal moment for Trump Media, authorizing early investors to exercise warrants and allowing stockholders to publicly resell securities covered by the registration statement. While this development provides greater liquidity for existing shareholders, it also introduces the potential for increased selling pressure, which could further impact the stock’s performance.

The volatility surrounding Trump Media serves as a case study in the challenges faced by emerging social media platforms as they navigate the complex interplay of market forces, regulatory requirements, and public perception. As the digital advertising landscape continues to evolve, investors and industry observers are closely watching how alternative social networks like Truth Social can carve out their niche and sustain growth in a highly competitive market.

The unfolding situation at Trump Media also underscores the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, particularly when dealing with stocks tied to high-profile individuals or emerging technologies. As the company strives to weather this storm, its ability to adapt to changing market conditions and demonstrate sustainable user growth will be crucial in regaining investor confidence.

In the broader context of social media innovation and digital marketing trends, the Trump Media saga highlights the ongoing shifts in online engagement and content monetization strategies. As users increasingly seek out niche platforms that align with their values and interests, the success of companies like Trump Media may hinge on their ability to foster engaged communities while navigating the complex regulatory and financial landscapes of the modern digital economy.

As this story continues to develop, it will undoubtedly remain a focal point for those interested in the intersection of technology, politics, and finance, offering valuable insights into the future of social media entrepreneurship and the challenges of building sustainable digital platforms in today’s rapidly changing online environment.

Nvidia’s Mega Stock Split Signals Opportunity for Emerging Growth Plays

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The opening trading bell on Monday ushered in a new era for semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA). The company’s white-hot stock began trading on a split-adjusted basis after undergoing a massive 10-for-1 stock split. This slashed Nvidia’s share price from over $1,200 to around $120, while multiplying the total shares outstanding tenfold.

For Nvidia, the split was a pragmatic move to make its stock more accessible to a wider range of investors after seeing its valuation soar past $3 trillion amid skyrocketing demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips. But the split also serves as an opportune reminder of the massive growth runway ahead for emerging players across the tech, AI, and semiconductor spaces.

As the appetite for advanced AI capabilities grows, companies able to provide the critical hardware, software, and cloud infrastructure are in the stratosphere in terms of market opportunity. Nvidia’s leadership position and shrewd strategic moves like this split should prompt investors to closely watch the rising cohort of potential AI/tech upstarts.

Why Stock Splits Matter
While stock splits have no impact on a company’s market capitalization or fundamentals, they do foster greater liquidity and affordability in trading the stock. This can open the floodgates for more participation from retail investors and ownership by funds previously restricted from buying such pricey shares.

There is also a psychological element. Stock splits are often viewed as a bullish signal of a company having exceeded its prior growth expectations. The increased affordability and accessibility of shares can also fuel incremental investor demand alone. Research shows stocks that split their shares tend to outperform the broader market in the year after announcing their split.

Nvidia’s split checks all of these boxes. Its relentless 90%+ rally in 2024 has been fueled by insatiable demand for its AI hardware from juggernauts like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and a rapidly expanding set of sectors. Even after the split, analysts have an average price target north of $300 per share, implying over 140% upside potential from current levels. More affordable shares set the stage for further momentum.

Following the Leader
As the disruptive force of AI grows, more companies are racing to build their own chips, cloud services, and software tools to tap into this generational shift. Many of these upstarts could be prime candidates to pursue stock splits of their own as their solutions gain traction and valuations expand.

Keep an eye on AI semiconductor developers like Cerebras, SambaNova, and Groq that are designing specialized chips for AI workloads. There are also startups building their own AI cloud platforms and services like Anthropic, Cohere, and Adept that could become attractive public investment vehicles down the road.

Software players creating AI tools and applications tailored for specific industries like healthcare (Hugging Face), cybersecurity (Abnormal Security), or autonomous driving (Wayve) may also emerge as compelling split candidates as their categories take shape.

A rising tide of private capital being deployed into AI companies is fueling the rapid growth and maturation of many startups, pushing them closer to the public markets. Like Nvidia, those able to reach scale and capture significant market share should have ample justification to make their shares more affordable to incoming investors through splits.

Within the larger chip landscape, graphics processors tailored for AI and gaming workloads could become an M&A focus for incumbents like AMD, Intel, or Qualcomm looking to challenge Nvidia. Rising M&A premiums and valuations may incentivize others to split their shares as more investors jockey for exposure.

Bottom Line
Nvidia’s eye-popping stock split demonstrates the immense opportunity created by disruptive innovations like AI and generative technology. While still in its nascency, this revolution is rapidly ushering in a new wave of emerging tech leaders able to capitalize on this sea change.

Smart investors should monitor the publicly traded AI/chip space closely, keeping an eye out for the next stock split candidate as the next Nvidia may be just around the corner. As adoption further accelerates, these prospective splits could signal prime entry points for getting ahead of massive growth runways in these future-shaping fields.

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Quantum Computing: The Next Frontier After AI?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

With all the excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) and its rapidly advancing capabilities, you may be wondering what revolutionary technology could possibly follow in its footsteps. Well, the answer may lie in the strange and fascinating world of quantum computing.

At its core, quantum computing harnesses the mind-bending principles of quantum mechanics to process information in entirely new ways. While classical computers encode data into binary digits (bits) representing 0s and 1s, quantum computers use quantum bits (qubits) that can exist as 0s, 1s, or both at the same time. This quantum superposition unlocks exponentially higher computing power.

Still scratching your head? Let’s break it down further:

Quantum Parallelism
Classical computers are like meticulous accountants – they crunch through tasks and calculations in a linear, step-by-step fashion. Quantum computers are more like a team of intuitive savants able to consider multiple potential pathways and solutions simultaneously through quantum parallelism.

This ability to explore a multitude of possibilities at once makes quantum systems ideally suited to solve certain types of massively complex problems that classical computers would take an impractically long time to calculate. Examples include cryptography, complex simulations, optimization problems, and more.

Quantum Supremacy
While still in early stages, quantum computing has already demonstrated game-changing potential. In 2019, Google achieved what’s called “quantum supremacy” – using its Sycamore quantum processor to perform a specific computation in 200 seconds that would have taken the world’s most powerful classical supercomputer 10,000 years.

As quantum hardware and software mature, we could see breakthroughs in areas like materials science, logistics, finance, and pharmaceuticals that are currently bottlenecked by the limitations of classical computing power. Curing diseases, optimizing supply chains, advancing climate science – quantum computers may help bend what once seemed impossible.

The Next Investor Frontier?
The revolutionary implications of quantum computing extend to the investment world as well. A new wave of quantum computing startups and public companies are racing to build the foundations of this potentially world-changing technology.

Quantumscape (QS), IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing, and others are pioneering quantum hardware, software, encryption methods, and algorithms that could power the future quantum revolution. As this cutting-edge industry takes shape, it may present an attractive new sector for investors to explore and get in on the ground floor.

Much like the early days of classical computing or more recently the AI boom, the quantum computing space could deliver monumental returns for those who identify the key players and opportunities. And no doubt there will be new up-and-coming companies like Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT), introducing novel quantum technologies and approaches that could emerge as leaders. But separating reality from hype and making well-informed quantum investment decisions will be crucial given the highly complex and speculative nature of the field.

Quantum Security
Encryption is a prime use case for quantum computing’s unique capabilities. By distributing keys using the counterintuitive principles of quantum mechanics like quantum entanglement, incredibly secure and tamper-proof encryption methods could be developed to protect data privacy and cybersecurity.

Conversely, quantum computers also pose a looming threat to current encryption standards by being able to rapidly decipher codes that are essentially unbreakable for classical systems. This “crypto apocalypse” is driving efforts to build quantum-proof encryption.

While the full implications aren’t yet clear, it’s evident that quantum computing introduces game-changing cybersecurity dynamics. Both the benefits of ultra-secure quantum encryption and the risks of current encryption being compromised by adversarial quantum processors must be grappled with.

Technical Challenges Remain
Of course, realizing the revolutionary potential of quantum computing will require overcoming major scientific and technical hurdles. Quantum bits are incredibly fragile, and constructing stable, large-scale quantum systems is an immense challenge that companies like IBM, Google, and IonQ are feverishly working towards.

Error correction, connectivity, and noise mitigation are also significant obstacles to developing fault-tolerant quantum computers that can reliably outperform classical systems on practical applications. Estimates vary, but it may still take a decade or more to achieve this “quantum advantage.”

But when that tipping point is reached, the real quantum disruption may begin. And we could be witnessing the birth of a new technological era as transformative as the original computing revolution – turbocharging progress across science, technology, society, and the markets.

While AI has dominated the emerging tech buzz, don’t lose sight of quantum computing lurking as the potentially bigger, more earth-shattering breakthrough looming over the horizon. The laws of quantum physics are strange and counter-intuitive. But the computing capabilities they enable could be truly paradigm-shifting – for investors and the world.

AI Supremacy: Nvidia Reigns as ChatGPT 4.0 Intensifies the Chip Wars

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The release of ChatGPT 4.0 by Anthropic has sent shockwaves through the tech world, with the AI model boasting unprecedented “human-level performance” across professional exams like the bar exam, SAT reading, and SAT math tests. As generative AI pioneers like OpenAI double down, one company has emerged as the indispensable force – Nvidia.

Nvidia’s cutting-edge GPUs provided the colossal computing power to train ChatGPT 4.0, which OpenAI hails as a seminal leap showcasing “more reliable, creative” intelligence than prior versions. The startup, backed by billions from Microsoft, turned to Microsoft Azure’s Nvidia-accelerated infrastructure to create what it calls the “largest” language model yet.

This scaling up of ever-larger foundational models at staggering financial costs is widely seen as key to recent AI breakthroughs. And Nvidia has established itself as the premier supplier of the high-performance parallelized hardware and software stack underpinning this generative AI revolution.

Major tech titans like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are all tapping Nvidia’s specialized AI acceleration capabilities. At Google’s latest conference, CEO Sundar Pichai highlighted their “longstanding Nvidia partnership”, with Google Cloud adopting Nvidia’s forthcoming Blackwell GPUs in 2025. Microsoft is expected to unveil Nvidia-powered AI advancements at its Build event this week.

The AI chip wars are white-hot as legacy CPU makers desperately try dislodging Nvidia’s pole position. However, the chipmaker’s first-mover innovations like its ubiquitous CUDA platform have cemented its technological lead. Nvidia’s co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang encapsulated this preeminence, proudly declaring Nvidia brought “the most advanced” chips for OpenAI’s milestone AI demo.

With the AI accelerator market projected to swell into the hundreds of billions, Nvidia is squarely at the center of an infrastructure arms race. Hyperscalers are spending billions building out global AI-optimized data centers, with Meta alone deploying 350,000 Nvidia GPUs. Each breakthrough like GPT-4.0’s human-level exam performance reinforces Nvidia’s mission-critical role.

For investors, Nvidia’s lofty valuation and triple-digit stock gains are underpinned by blistering financial performance riding the generative AI wave. With transformative, open-domain AI models like GPT-4.0 being commercialized, Nvidia’s high-margin GPU cycles will remain in insatiable demand at the vanguard of the AI big bang.

Competitive headwinds will persist, but Nvidia has executed flawlessly to become the catalyzing force powering the most remarkable AI achievements today. As GPT-4.0 showcases tantalizing human-level abilities, Nvidia’s unbridled prowess in the AI chip arena shows no signs of waning.

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Is Elon Musk Transforming Tesla Into an AI Company?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In the rapidly evolving world of technology, Elon Musk and Tesla are shaking things up with what appears to be a strategic shift towards artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. As electric vehicle (EV) demand cools in 2024, Tesla seems to be pivoting its focus to autonomy, Full Self-Driving (FSD), and its hotly anticipated robotaxi program. This potential redirection has piqued the interest of investors, particularly those hunting for undervalued and overlooked opportunities among small and micro-cap stocks.

The signs of transformation at Tesla have been mounting. Most notably, the company recently announced layoffs impacting over 10% of its global workforce, with key executives departing in what Musk framed as part of the “next phase of growth.” Compounding the speculation, reports emerged that Tesla shelved plans for its $25,000 next-generation Model 2 vehicle to prioritize the robotaxi initiative instead.

Musk himself has stoked the flames, proclaiming on Twitter that “Tesla is an AI/robotics and sustainable energy company.” This bold statement marks a clear departure from Tesla’s automotive roots, signaling that a broader pivot to artificial intelligence may be underway.

Analysts tracking the company have been sounding alarms. Emmanuel Rosner at Deutsche Bank believes Tesla’s future now hinges on “cracking the code on full driverless autonomy” – a formidable challenge layered with significant technological, regulatory and operational hurdles. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas went so far as to say “it seems” Tesla is exiting the traditional EV auto industry altogether, though he doesn’t expect vehicle production to cease immediately.

For investors, particularly those scouring small and micro-cap stocks for overlooked gems, Tesla’s AI ambitions could foreshadow seismic shifts ahead. Analysts warn of a “potentially painful transition in ownership base” as dyed-in-the-wool electric vehicle investors may “throw in the towel” and be replaced by tech funds with far longer investment horizons suited for frontier AI bets.

If Tesla does successfully reinvent itself as an AI juggernaut, sector valuations and comparable companies would be turned on their head. Traditional automotive benchmarks may no longer apply, forcing investors to reimagine their investment theses from scratch.

To be sure, the rewards of being at the vanguard of automated driving and machine intelligence could be immense. But the associated risks are equally daunting as Tesla stares down imposing technological barriers, regulatory quicksand, and operational growing pains. For nimble investors, the transformation could open doors to diversify into AI and robotics through an established player boasting visionary leadership and deep pockets.

When Tesla reports first quarter earnings next week, all eyes will be glued to Elon Musk for clarity and insight into precisely where he plans to steer this potential AI metamorphosis. The report could prove revelatory in glimpsing the future trajectory of a company that may be in the midst of redefining itself as the vanguard of a new technological epoch.

For small and micro-cap investors perpetually searching for the next undervalued, under-the-radar opportunity, Tesla’s AI aspirations warrant close scrutiny. While hazards abound, the potential rewards of getting in on the ground floor of a transformative technology upstart could be nothing short of game-changing.

Google Unveils Custom Axion Chips in Cloud Computing Arms Race

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In the cloud computing battle among tech titans like Amazon, Microsoft and Google, the latest salvo comes from the internet search giant. Google (GOOG, GOOGL) has unveiled its custom Axion chips based on Arm (ARM) designs to try to reduce costs, boost performance for AI workloads, and cut reliance on outside vendors like Nvidia (NVDA).

The move puts Google in the company of rivals who have rolled out their own in-house processors in recent years. Amazon introduced its Graviton Arm chips in 2018, while Microsoft launched Arm-based chips just last November. Even smaller player Alibaba got into the custom silicon act back in 2021.

The economics have become compelling for the hyperscalers to design their own chips instead of relying on x86 processors from Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD). Amazon has claimed its Graviton chips can provide up to 40% better price/performance compared to standard x86 instances. Google says its Axion chip offers 30% better performance than the fastest general-purpose Arm cloud VMs and a 50% boost over comparable x86 VMs. The chips also provide around 60% more energy efficiency than x86 instances for certain workloads.

Arm’s instruction set architecture allows for more compact and efficient chip designs compared to the complex x86 architecture. While Arm chips have traditionally been used in smartphones and other mobile devices, the cloud titans are now tapping Arm to power their data center workloads. The parallel computing performance of Arm chips also gives them an edge for AI applications which can leverage massive parallelism.

For Google, the new Axion CPUs are just the latest addition to its in-house chip portfolio. The company has designed its own Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for years, with the latest Cloud TPU v5P unveiled in December being a powerhouse for AI training and inference. It has partnered with Broadcom (AVGO) to build the TPUs, with Broadcom’s CEO Hock Tan boasting last month that Google had bought “a ton” of chips from them.

Google plans to initially use the Axion CPUs for its internal workloads like the YouTube ads business, BigTable and Spanner databases, and BigQuery analytics before making them available externally. Companies like Snap (SNAP), Datadog, Elastic and OpenX are among the initial customers interested in tapping Google’s Arm silicon.

While Google’s cloud business still lags behind Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, representing just 7.5% cloud infrastructure market share in 2022 compared to 62% for the leaders, every bit of performance and cost advantage helps. Custom Arm chips could give Google Cloud a pricing edge to win over more customers in the relentless cloud wars.

For investors, the Axion chips are worth watching as part of Google’s broader strategy to compete more effectively against Amazon and Microsoft in the rapidly growing cloud computing market. While Google generates over 75% of revenue from advertising currently, cloud is growing faster and is already profitable. Any assets like custom silicon that can help Google grab more cloud market share could pay off for the company and its shareholders over time.

The chip ambitions also have implications for other players in the semiconductor space like Arm, Nvidia, AMD and Intel. As cloud heavyweights increasingly go their own way with custom designs, it potentially limits their future chip demand from traditional providers. Arm could be a bright spot as its instruction set architecture becomes more embedded in data centers. But greater in-house chip efforts cast a cloud over prospects for current data center CPU vendors.

Snail (SNAL) – Underlying Trends Appear Favorable

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noisy Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $28.6 million and missed our estimate of $31.6 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was $3.6 million, substantially below our estimate of $12.4 million. Figure #1 Q4 Results illustrates the company’s recent performance. Notably, the results were driven by higher than expected deferred revenue, related to DLC packages included in the sale of ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA). 

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across the five DLCS that are included in the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025. 


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Amazon Doubles Down on AI Revolution with $4 Billion Anthropic Investment

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is in full swing, and tech giants are racing to secure their footholds in this transformative space. Amazon’s recent $4 billion investment in Anthropic, a leading AI research company, is a bold move that underscores the e-commerce giant’s commitment to staying at the forefront of this technological shift.

The investment, which includes an initial $1.25 billion investment made last September and an additional $2.75 billion announced recently, is part of a broader strategic collaboration between the two companies. This collaboration aims to bring Anthropic’s advanced generative AI technologies, including the powerful Claude AI models, to Amazon’s cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The AI revolution is disrupting industries across the board, from healthcare and finance to manufacturing and entertainment. Companies that can harness the power of AI stand to gain a significant competitive advantage, and Amazon recognizes the immense potential of this technology.

By partnering with Anthropic, Amazon is positioning itself as a leading provider of AI solutions for businesses of all sizes. The company’s cloud computing platform, AWS, will serve as the primary cloud provider for Anthropic’s mission-critical workloads, including safety research and future foundation model development.

Moreover, AWS customers will gain access to Anthropic’s advanced AI models, such as the Claude 3 family, which has demonstrated near-human levels of responsiveness, improved accuracy, and new vision capabilities. This partnership promises to unlock exciting opportunities for customers to innovate with generative AI quickly, securely, and responsibly.

The tech sector has been experiencing a remarkable rally driven by the AI boom, and Amazon’s investment in Anthropic is a testament to this trend. As AI continues to reshape industries and create new possibilities, companies that embrace this technology early on are likely to reap significant rewards.

Amazon’s strategic move not only positions the company as a leader in the AI space but also highlights the growing importance of AI in driving innovation and creating value across industries. As the AI revolution continues to unfold, we can expect to see more companies investing heavily in this game-changing technology, shaping the future of how we live, work, and interact with the world around us.

Apple’s AI Ambitions Could Involve Major Partnerships

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Apple is actively exploring partnerships with tech giants like Google and OpenAI as it accelerates its artificial intelligence efforts, according to a recent report from Bloomberg. The iPhone maker is said to be in “active negotiations” with Google to integrate the search giant’s Gemini generative AI into future Apple products and services.

The potential deal would give Apple access to Google’s advanced AI capabilities, allowing it to rapidly implement features like AI-powered text and image generation into offerings like iOS, Siri, and its productivity apps. Bloomberg reports that Apple has also considered integrating OpenAI’s viral ChatGPT model, highlighting the company’s willingness to leverage external AI expertise.

This openness to AI partnerships represents a strategic shift for the traditionally vertically integrated Apple. CEO Tim Cook confirmed earlier this year that the company is devoting “tremendous time and effort” to generative AI, with plans to release AI-powered features to consumers “later this year” with iOS 18. However, Apple’s in-house AI development efforts are reportedly lagging rivals.

While Apple employees have been testing an internal AI assistant called “Apple GPT,” the company’s generative AI tech is described as less capable than that of Microsoft, Google, and others. A partnership would allow Apple to utilize cutting-edge cloud AI while its own large language model, codenamed “Ajax,” continues development.

For Google, scoring an AI integration deal with its chief mobile rival would be a coup – expanding its AI’s reach to over 2 billion active iPhones globally. It could also strengthen Google’s position amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny over its lucrative deals making Google Search the default on Apple devices.

The two tech titans already have an $18 billion annual agreement in place for Google to be the preloaded search engine on iPhones and iPads. Adding AI services could make this partnership even more lucrative and harder for regulators to disentangle.

However, the deal risks being perceived as an admission from Apple that its AI capabilities lag behind Google’s, at least for now. Apple prides itself on cutting-edge silicon and integrated hardware/software experiences. Relying on Google’s AI could undermine its position as an innovation leader.

Apple may aim to provide on-device AI through its own models, while tapping Google’s cloud AI for more intensive generative tasks like text prompts or image creation. It’s already taken this hybrid approach with other services like Maps and web search.

Another complicating factor is Apple’s historical stance on privacy and protecting user data. Integrating Google’s AI could raise concerns about data sharing and usage policies that differ from Apple’s privacy-centric approach.

While the negotiations underscore Apple’s AI ambitions, many details remain unclear – including potential branding, business terms, technical implementation, or whether a deal will even be reached. Bloomberg reports any announcement is unlikely before Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

As the AI Arms race intensifies, Apple is evidently willing to consider previously unorthodox partnerships and concessions to avoid falling behind rivals in this revolutionary technological domain. How it balances AI capabilities with its core principles and ultimately delivers its AI-powered user experiences will be crucial to maintaining its industry-leading device ecosystem.

Meta and Microsoft Achieve $1 Trillion Milestones as AI Investments Pay Off

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Two of the biggest tech giants, Meta and Microsoft, recently hit major market cap milestones as part of the ongoing record rally in tech stocks.

Meta’s market cap surpassed the $1 trillion during intraday trading on January 24th, marking the first time the company reclaimed this valuation since 2021. Meta previously hit the $1 trillion mark in September 2021 at the height of its stock’s popularity.

Driving Meta’s soaring stock price is a nearly 200% surge over the past year, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg enacted cost-cutting that included laying off over 20,000 employees. After its stock plummeted to a six-year low in 2022, Zuckerberg has described 2023 as a “year of efficiency.”

Shareholders are bullish on Meta’s focus on expanding its position in artificial intelligence. Last week, Zuckerberg revealed the company is ramping up AI investments, procuring hundreds of thousands of high-powered AI chips from Nvidia. This signals Meta is spending billions to compete in the red-hot AI space.

On the same day Meta topped $1 trillion, Microsoft also briefly surpassed the $3 trillion mark during trading on January 24th. This comes around two weeks after Microsoft temporarily overtook Apple as the world’s most valuable company in mid-January. While Apple has since regained the top valuation spot, Microsoft remains hot on its heels.

Fueling Microsoft’s continued share price gains is optimism around the company’s AI initiatives. Microsoft stock is up over 7% year-to-date amid strong demand for AI capabilities, especially in generative AI.

Analysts predict Microsoft will post a solid earnings beat for its upcoming quarterly report, citing its leadership in enterprise-level AI as a key advantage. Microsoft seems poised to capitalize on the explosion of interest in AI technologies like ChatGPT.

AI Arms Race

The back-to-back market cap milestones from Meta and Microsoft highlight the massive investments pouring into artificial intelligence right now.

With breakout successes like ChatGPT demonstrating new possibilities for generative AI, tech giants are racing to stake their claims. The companies leading development of advanced AI stand to reap substantial rewards.

Both Meta and Microsoft are positioning themselves at the forefront of this AI arms race. In addition to its major chip purchases, Meta recently unveiled its own chatbot project, BlenderBot. Microsoft is integrating generative AI into Bing search and other offerings.

The tech world’s strike into AI looks poised to pay off based on the positive investor sentiment boosting Meta and Microsoft’s valuations. However, the AI hype cycle could eventually lead to a correction for these high-flying stocks.

For now, shareholders seem willing to bet on the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. And the tech giants pouring money into AI research appear ready to capitalize on this enthusiasm.

Big Tech Boosts Markets

Meta and Microsoft reaching new market cap heights also highlights the outsized impact of Big Tech on the broader stock market. The performance of tech stocks is a key factor driving indexes like the S&P 500 to record levels.

Despite some pockets of weakness, optimism around AI and other emerging technologies continues fueling upward momentum. The Nasdaq index, heavily weighted toward tech, rose over 12% in 2023 even as the overall market declined.

This dynamic shows no signs of changing in 2024. Tech stocks led markets higher to begin the year, with the Nasdaq up close to 10% in January as of this writing. Stocks like Meta and Microsoft hitting new milestones reflects their leadership in this rally.

However, extended runs by Big Tech raise risks of overheating and heighten their influence on market swings. With Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and other tech giants comprising over 20% of the S&P 500, their performance significantly impacts overall returns.

Nonetheless, bullish sentiment toward AI and other disruptive tech breakthroughs appears likely to keep lifting valuations. As giants like Meta and Microsoft position themselves to capitalize on these trends, their gravity on markets looks set to rise.

SoftBank Bounces Back: $7.6B T-Mobile Win Boosts Assets After String of Investment Flops

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group saw its shares soar 5% this week after announcing it will receive a windfall stake in T-Mobile US worth $7.59 billion. The deal highlights a reversal of fortunes for SoftBank and its founder Masayoshi Son, who has weathered missteps like the WeWork debacle but is now reaping rewards from past telecom investments.

The share acquisition comes through an agreement made during the merger of SoftBank’s US telecom unit Sprint and T-Mobile. With the merger complete and certain conditions met, SoftBank will receive 48.75 million T-Mobile shares, doubling its stake in the mobile carrier from 3.75% to 7.64%.

This is a big win for SoftBank as it substantially increases its portfolio of listed assets. SoftBank has worked to shift towards more conservative investments after facing heavy criticism for pouring money into overvalued late-stage startups like WeWork. The Japanese firm was forced to bail out WeWork after its failed IPO in 2019, leading to billions in losses.

However, the T-Mobile windfall, along with the recent blockbuster IPO of SoftBank-owned chip designer Arm, helps balance the books. It also bumps SoftBank’s internal rate of return on its original Sprint investment to 25.5%, a solid result.

SoftBank Trading at Steep Discount Despite Strong Assets

Even with missteps like WeWork, SoftBank still holds an impressive array of assets from its years of prolific venture investing. Yet the Japanese firm trades at a 45% discount to the value of its holdings, presenting an opportunity for investors.

The influx of liquid T-Mobile shares adds more tangible value compared to some of SoftBank’s private startup investments. Having more listed stocks helps improve SoftBank’s loan-to-value ratio, giving it more marginable equity relative to debt obligations.

This could help narrow the gap between SoftBank’s market capitalization and net asset value. The T-Mobile windfall and Arm IPO shore up SoftBank’s balance sheet with listed assets at a time when the gap between its market cap and value of holdings remains substantial.

Son’s Missteps Bring Scrutiny But Vision Still Intact

While the WeWork bet soured investor perception of SoftBank’s investment strategy, Son has shown he still has an eye for disruption. His early investments in Alibaba and Yahoo! set the stage for his later dominance in late-stage startup funding.

However, the WeWork debacle led Son to pledge increased financial discipline and a shift towards AI-focused companies. Recent wins like the Coupang IPO and rising value of holdings like DoorDash reassure investors that Son still knows how to pick winners early.

SoftBank also stands to benefit from Son’s long-term vision on the potential of AI, having acquired chipmakers like Arm to position itself as a leader in the so-called Information Revolution. As AI comes to dominate technology over the next decade, SoftBank’s early moves could pay off handsomely if Son’s predictions come true.

T-Mobile Deal Highlights Importance of Sprint Merger

While US regulators initially balked at the T-Mobile/Sprint merger over competition concerns, the deal is now paying off for SoftBank. The Japanese firm’s persistence in pursuing the merger exemplifies its long-term approach, as the benefits are now apparent.

The combined T-Mobile/Sprint is now a much stronger competitor versus Verizon and AT&T, going from the 4th largest US wireless carrier to 2nd largest. T-Mobile has aggressively expanded its 5G network and subscriber base since completion of the merger in 2020.

SoftBank also benefited by negotiating the share acquisition as part of the original merger agreement, allowing it to substantially increase its T-Mobile stake down the road at minimal additional cost.

Final Thoughts

The T-Mobile share acquisition highlights a reversal of fortunes for SoftBank after missteps like WeWork resulted in negative headlines and billions in losses. While the firm still trades at a discount to the value of its holdings, the T-Mobile windfall and Arm IPO help increase its listed assets versus debt.

Son’s long-term vision and willingness to make bold bets still drive SoftBank, even if investments like WeWork went sour. With the US telco mission accomplished by enabling the Sprint/T-Mobile merger, SoftBank now has both its legacy telecom investment and new T-Mobile shares paying off. Looking ahead, SoftBank is well-positioned in AI and next-gen chips to ride disruption waves far into the future if Son’s predictions on technology evolution prove prescient.