Category: Markets

Private Hiring Slows More Than Expected as Labor Market Cools

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The red-hot U.S. labor market showed further signs of cooling in May as private hiring slowed more than anticipated, according to the latest employment report from payroll processor ADP.

Companies added just 152,000 jobs last month, coming in well below economist projections of a 175,000 increase. It marked the lowest level of monthly job gains since January and a notable deceleration from April’s downwardly revised 188,000 figure.

The ADP report, which captures private payroll changes but not government hiring, suggests the robust labor market demand that has characterized the pandemic recovery is moderating amid higher interest rates, still-elevated inflation, and growing economic uncertainty.

“Job gains and pay growth are slowing going into the second half of the year,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “The labor market is solid, but we’re monitoring notable pockets of weakness tied to both producers and consumers.”

A Shift Toward Services
While goods-producing sectors like manufacturing, mining, and construction have driven solid hiring for much of the recovery, last month they contributed only 3,000 net new jobs.

Job creation was instead carried by services industries, led by trade/transportation/utilities with 55,000 new positions. Other strong areas included education/health services (+46,000), construction (+32,000), and other services (+21,000).

However, even within services there were weak spots, including the previously booming leisure/hospitality sector which saw just a 12,000 job gain in May. Professional/business services also posted a decline.

Manufacturers Slashing Payrolls
The report highlighted particular softness in the manufacturing sector, which shed 20,000 jobs last month amid a broader industrial slowdown.

Factories have been cutting payrolls for most of the past 18 months as higher material and energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and softening demand weighed on production. The sector has contracted in seven of the last eight months, according to survey data.

Regional manufacturing indexes have also pointed to slowing activity and employment levels, including the latest readings from the Dallas and Richmond Federal Reserve districts.

Small Businesses Feeling the Pinch
Companies with fewer than 50 employees were disproportionately impacted in May, seeing a net decrease in headcounts. Those with 20-49 workers reduced staffing levels by 36,000.

The pullback at smaller firms underscores how rapidly tightening financial conditions and ebbing consumer demand have started to squeeze profits and required some businesses to adjust their workforce levels.

Annual Pay Growth Steady at 5%
Despite some loss of momentum in overall hiring, the ADP report showed private wage growth stayed on a 5% annual trajectory last month, holding steady at that level for a third consecutive period.

The elevated but moderating pace of pay increases suggests employers are still working to attract and retain staff even as overall job creation starts to wane from its torrid pandemic-era pace.

While a single data point, the ADP release could preview what’s to come from the more comprehensive government nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday. Economists expect that report to show a 190,000 increase in total U.S. payrolls for May, slowing from April’s 253,000 gain.

As borrowing costs continue climbing and spending softens, further hiring deceleration across both goods and services sectors seems likely in the months ahead, though an outright decline remains unlikely based on most economic projections.

NYSE Trading Halt Highlights Need for Robust Systems Amid Market Changes

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The New York Stock Exchange experienced a technical glitch this morning that triggered trading halts in dozens of stocks, including big names like Chipotle, Berkshire Hathaway, and the meme stock GameStop. The issue stemmed from problems with the price bands published by the Consolidated Tape Association, which are used to prevent excess volatility by pausing trading if prices move too far too quickly.

While the specific cause is still being investigated, the timing raised concerns given the recent move by U.S. stock exchanges to a one-day settlement cycle last week. This SEC-mandated change requires trades to be settled one day after execution instead of two, compressing timeframes for transferring securities.

Regulators and market participants have been on high alert for potential snags as systems adapt to the new settlement cycle. Today’s incident underscores the critical importance of robust trading infrastructure and risk controls as market practices evolve.

Halting Mechanism Kicks In
At around 11am ET, the NYSE listed over 60 stocks as temporarily halted due to hitting their “limit up, limit down” (LULD) bands, which are circuit breaker levels to prevent extreme price swings. While some of those may have been unrelated cases of normal volatility, many were likely impacted by the pricing data issue.

The stock seeing among the biggest volatility was GameStop, which spiked over 70% at the open before being halted. Speculation swirled that investor Keith Gill, known as “Roaring Kitty” from the 2021 meme stock frenzy, may have taken a large new position.

Trading resumed around 11:45am after the exchange confirmed the pricing data problems had been resolved. While temporary, such disruptions can impact market quality, trading execution and risk management for investors and firms.

Need for Resilient Systems
As financial markets continually evolve, today’s problems highlight the crucial need for exchanges, trading platforms, and market participants to have ultra-resilient, glitch-proof systems able to adapt flawlessly to changes. Even brief failures can undermine market confidence and integrity.

While technological errors are inevitable at times, regulators and investors alike will be scrutinizing today’s NYSE issue and responses carefully. Having rock-solid trading infrastructure and controls in place to prevent and handle disruptions seamlessly is essential for maintaining fair, orderly and efficient markets.

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GameStop Stock Erupts Again as ‘Roaring Kitty’ Reveals $175 Million Position

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The original meme stock mania has been reawakened with a vengeance. GameStop (GME) shares skyrocketed over 70% amid frantic trading on Monday after retail trader Keith Gill, popularly known as “Roaring Kitty,” revealed a colossal new bullish position in the video game retailer.

In his first major post on Reddit in years, Gill shared a screenshot that appeared to show a staggering $175 million bet on GameStop. The purported stake consisted of 5 million shares valued at $116 million and $65.7 million worth of call options expiring in June.

The revelation instantly reignited the meme stock frenzy. Feverish trading volumes in GameStop stock spiked more than tenfold, briefly surpassing even the mighty Apple (AAPL) at one point. By mid-morning, GameStop’s heavily shorted shares had skyrocketed as high as 75% in an explosive upward move reminiscent of the legendary January 2021 short squeeze.

Fellow meme favorites like AMC Entertainment (AMC) caught a powerful sympathy rally bid as well, surging over 20% on massive volumes before getting temporarily halted. The meme stock comeback had arrived in full force.

Gill’s outsize position punched far above GameStop’s relatively small $7 billion market cap. Analysts noted the dramatic price impact stemmed from the stock’s concentrated short position, which got pulverized as the fortunes quickly shifted.

The sudden lurch higher put short sellers covering their losing bets on a pace to absorb nearly $1 billion in losses, according to analytics firm Ortex. GameStop once again became the most frenzied trading name across no-fee retail platforms like Robinhood (HOOD).

Longtime GameStop investors flooded Reddit forums like WallStreetBets and Superstonk with jubilant scenes. Rocket emojis and feverish rallying cries echoed the legendary meme stock heydays of 2021 as the “diamond hands” crowd smelled redemption.

However, some analysts cautioned that chasing GameStop’s vertigo-inducing rally carried substantial risks. The company continues grappling with operational challenges like slowing sales and a customer shift away from physical games toward digital downloads and streaming.

Still, the meme mania machine may be too powerful to stop now that it has been reactivated by its celebrity mascot. GameStop raised $933 million last month from a stock sale, taking advantage of May’s initial retail resurgence to fortify its turnaround ambitions.

While May’s hype dissipated quickly without broad staying power, the same explosive ingredients powering 2021’s mania remain in place today – and have only intensified with Gill’s outsized position. GameStop’s short interest spiked to nosebleed levels, leaving bearish traders acutely vulnerable to getting blown out by a sustained rally.

Those dynamics set the stage for an epic rematch between the “diamond hands” unleashed and hedge funds caught flat-footed. Redemption beckons for the OG meme crowd still down on their initial GameStop bets. Meanwhile, a new generation of retail traders is getting initiated into the frenzy, enticed by visions of generational wealth on a lucky long-shot wager.

There are no guarantees the meme stock fever lasts. But the tantalizing combination of high short interest, heavy retail buy interest, and now the return of an idolized icon like Roaring Kitty has all the makings of another wild speculative blowoff. The opening act of 2021’s wildest stock story may ultimately prove just the warmup before a shocking meme stock encore too insane to script.

Tech Sell-Off Hits Broader Stock Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After a torrid five-week run higher, Wall Street took its foot off the gas this week as investors moved to book some profits. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8% over the last five sessions, ending an impressive stretch that saw the broad index rally over 6% since late April.

At the core of this week’s pullback was a cooldown in red-hot technology stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence frenzy. Semiconductor giant Nvidia, whose blowout earnings last week turbocharged the AI trade, shed over 9% this week as traders moved to cash in some of those monster gains.

Other mega cap tech leaders like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet also gave back ground, contributing to a 2.4% weekly slide for the Nasdaq Composite. With Big Tech serving as a weight on the market’s shoulders, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn’t spared either – the blue-chip index dropped over 2% itself.

The downshift marked an overdue pause that refreshed for the often overly-exuberant market. After storming nearly 15% off the lows over the previous seven weeks, a little air had to come out of the balloon, even with economic data continuing to hold up.

On the economic front, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading rose 2.8% year-over-year in April, slightly exceeding estimates. While inflation remains stubbornly high, the lack of a major upside surprise helped soothe fears of the Fed needing to pivot towards an even more aggressive policy stance.

The underlying commodity and service costs feeding into the PCE suggest inflation could start to moderate in the second half of 2023. That aligns with current Fed forecasts projecting two more 25 basis point rate hikes before calling it quits on this tightening cycle.

Assuming the Fed can stick the landing without snuffing out economic growth, conditions could remain conducive for further equity upside. History shows the S&P 500 tends to bottom around six months before the end of a tightening cycle – and rally sharply in the following 12 months.

This week’s dip may have seemed like an ominous turn, but it really just returned the major indexes back in line with the performance of other segments of the market. The Russell 2000 small-cap index and Russell 3000 representing the entire U.S. equity market have been lagging the S&P 500’s advance.

Over the past month, the Russell 3000 is up a more modest 2.8% versus a 5.2% gain for the big-cap dominated S&P 500. Small-caps as represented by the Russell 2000 have fared even worse with a 1.4% advance over that span.

Analysts pointed out small-caps have struggled to sustain upside momentum. Despite bouncing back from October’s lows, the Russell 2000 is still down 6% year-to-date versus a 10% rise for the large-cap Russell 1000.

Higher financing costs, softer economic growth prospects, and the fading benefits of 2022’s rally could continue to weigh on smaller stocks in the second half.

If large-cap tech remains under pressure, it could help narrow the performance gap – with the Russell mega-caps ceding some of their market-leading gains. But for now, most of Wall Street appears comfortable viewing this week’s pullback as simply clearing the way for the next move higher.

After all, some long-overdue profit-taking and consolidation can ultimately be healthy, helping reset overbought conditions and set the stage for sustained upside.

Wall Street Under Pressure as Fed Rate Uncertainty Weighs

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Investors were squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates as Wall Street kicked off the new week on a sour note. The major indexes pulled back on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding nearly 1% to its lowest level in nearly a month.

The culprit? Rising Treasury yields across the board as expectations get muddled on when exactly the Fed will start cutting rates and by how much. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to a four-week high after an unexpectedly strong reading on U.S. consumer confidence.

This hits right at the heart of the stock market’s biggest preoccupation of late – will the Fed’s rate hiking campaign successfully tame inflation without severely denting economic growth? The conflicting signals have investors scratching their heads and selling stocks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq retreated from Tuesday’s milestone close above 17,000, with pressure on megacap names like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. The semiconductor index, a recent leadership group, dropped nearly 2%. Small-caps also got hit hard as the Russell 2000 fell over 1%.

Treasury yields climbing is a negative for valuations, especially in richly-valued sectors like tech. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked to its highest level since early May as rate concerns contributed to the market’s unease.

Investors began 2023 pricing in rate cuts as early as March, but sticky inflation readings and hawkish Fed rhetoric have walked back those expectations. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now only betting on a 25 basis point cut by November or December at the earliest.

The Fed’s “Beige Book” released Wednesday afternoon provided little clarity, depicting an economy expanding at a modest pace with elevated price pressures. Traders are now laser-focused on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Fed’s favored inflation metric.

Amid the cross-currents, there were pockets of strength driven by solid corporate news. Marathon Oil surged 8.7% after ConocoPhillips announced a $15 billion all-stock acquisition of the energy firm. DICK’S Sporting Goods and Abercrombie & Fitch also rallied double-digits after boosting their annual guidance.

But the broader market sold off, with declines across all eleven S&P 500 sectors. The airline industry was a notable laggard, with an airline stocks index tanking over 4% after American Airlines slashed its profit forecast.

For now, uncertainty continues to breed anxiety on Wall Street as investors attempt to gauge whether the Fed can orchestrate a long-hoped-for “soft landing” or if more turbulence is in store. All eyes will be laser-focused on upcoming inflation data and Fed speak for further clues on the path forward for interest rates.

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Russell Reconstitution 2024: The Ultimate Guide to This Year’s Index Shake-Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The annual Russell reconstitution is one of the biggest events in the investing world, shaping the composition of the widely followed Russell indexes, including the influential Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. This comprehensive process ensures these indexes accurately represent various U.S. market segments by reflecting changes in company market capitalizations and characteristics.

What is the Russell Reconstitution?
The Russell reconstitution is an annual rebalancing process where all Russell equity indexes undergo a complete overhaul. During reconstitution, the index provider FTSE Russell rebuilds the Russell indexes from the ground up based on new data on eligible stocks’ market caps, trading volumes, and other criteria.

This vital event maintains the integrity of Russell indexes as accurate benchmarks by updating their holdings to reflect the current landscape of the U.S. stock market. Reconstitution allows companies that have grown or shrunk in value to be properly represented in the appropriate Russell indexes.

The Importance of the Russell 3000 Index
A major focus of the reconstitution is the Russell 3000 Index, considered one of the leading benchmarks for the overall U.S. equity market. This index aims to capture 98% of U.S. stocks by market cap.

On May 24, 2024, FTSE Russell published its annual reconstitution updates, revealing notable new additions to the Russell 3000 like Ocugen, Eledon Pharmaceuticals, NN Inc., and Bitcoin Depot. Such changes highlight how reconstitution allows the index to evolve with the market.

The Closely Watched Russell 2000 Index
Another keenly watched Russell index is the small-cap Russell 2000, which tracks the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 by market cap. This index is considered a leading benchmark for small-cap U.S. stocks.

During reconstitution, companies can move in or out of the Russell 2000 based on changes to their market capitalization or investment style exposures like value vs growth. This rebalancing ensures the Russell 2000 precisely represents today’s small-cap universe.

IPO Additions Throughout the Year
In addition to the annual reset, FTSE Russell regularly adds eligible IPO stocks to its indexes on a quarterly basis. This allows newly public companies to quickly enter major benchmarks like the Russell 3000 instead of waiting for reconstitution.

Russell’s IPO treatment distinguishes between fully underwritten IPOs and partial or “best efforts” public offerings when determining appropriate share weights and eligibility.

Rebalancing Drives Major Trading Activity
Russell reconstitution is a major trading event, as index funds and ETFs tracking Russell benchmarks must rebalance their portfolios to match updated index constituents and weightings.

Estimates suggest hundreds of billions in assets follow the Russell benchmarks, meaning their reconstitution announcements can trigger massive shifts in demand for newly added or removed stocks.

Following Russell’s Transparent Methodology
FTSE Russell’s reconstitution process follows an objective, rules-based methodology spelled out in publicly available documentation. Key eligibility factors include:

  • Trading on eligible U.S. stock exchanges
  • Meeting minimum price, market cap, and liquidity thresholds
  • Sufficient public share float and voting rights
  • Eligible corporate structures like public operating companies

Staying on top of Russell’s transparent reconstitution rules allows investors to understand how index changes may impact their portfolios and positions.

The Russell Reconstitution’s Continuing Impact
As indexes like the Russell 3000 continue gaining prominence as core portfolio benchmarks, Russell reconstitution’s influence grows. The 2024 event reinforces the Russell indexes’ role in definitively capturing U.S. market performance by surgery evolving index holdings to match current realities.

Whether reallocating client assets, developing new index funds, or simply understanding market composition changes, the 2024 Russell reconstitution guide will prove essential reading for investors. Follow this yearly event closely, as it shapes the benchmarks driving U.S. equity allocations for years to come.

Upcoming 2024 Russell Reconstitution Schedule

Friday, May 31st, June 7th, 14th, and 21st – Preliminary membership lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6PM US eastern time.

Monday, June 10th – “Lock-down” period begins with the updates to reconstitution membership considered to be final.

Friday, June 28th – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.

Monday, July 1st – Equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.

Trade Settlement Just Accelerated – What It Means for Your Money

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

If you trade stocks, bonds or other securities, a major change is coming next week that could significantly impact your transactions and capital. On May 28th, the settlement cycle for trades in U.S. markets is shifting from the longstanding T+2 standard down to T+1.

What does this mean? Instead of having two business days after a trade execution to pay up and settle, you’ll now need to pony up your cash and securities just one day later under the accelerated T+1 timeline.

While seemingly a small change, this compression in the settlement schedule could have big ramifications for how you manage trades and the money involved. The transition is expected to cause disruptions, at least in the short-term, that all investors need to be prepared for.

For one, market participants anticipate a spike in trade settlement failures as brokers, banks and trading firms scramble to comply with the tighter T+1 window. With less time to line up cash and shares, there is higher risk that obligations don’t get met when due. History shows failure rates did jump when the U.S. shifted from T+3 to T+2 settlement back in 2017.

Settlement failures can lead to losses on trades, penalties, and reputational damage. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) expects “small changes” in fail rates initially, but any increase could create snags.

There are also concerns that risks and cash crunches could migrate to other areas like foreign exchange funding markets. Foreign investors holding trillions in U.S. securities may face challenges sourcing dollars for transactions in the compressed T+1 timeframe. This could drive demand for overnight lending at elevated interest rates.

Similarly, the shortened settlement cycle could disrupt securities lending by reducing the availability of shares to borrow if there is less time to recall loaned stocks before settling trades.

While ultimately aimed at reducing risks long-term, the shortened T+1 settlement period represents a monumental operational change that the investing industry has been scrambling to prepare for. Over 1,000 different firms have been coordinating testing, setting up monitoring “command centers”, and adjusting processes.

Even with months of planning, there could still be issues and errors in the first few days and weeks as standard practices adapt to the quicker timeline. Major transition risk points to watch include May 29th when trades from both the final T+2 date and first T+1 date converge, creating an expected settlement volume surge.

For all investors, some key implications are clear – be ready for potential trade failures and funding crunches, have contingency plans in place, and expect a Period of adjustment as the new accelerated T+1 regime takes hold. Flexibility and patience may be required as longstanding settlement processes are overhauled practically overnight.

The shift to T+1 is considered vital to modernizing market plumbing. But adapting to its faster payment cadence will put investors’ operational capabilities and capital management to the test like never before.

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Small Cap Stocks Could Soar Next – Here’s Why the Russell Rally May Be Imminent

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The major U.S. stock indexes have been on a tear in 2024, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recently locking in fresh 52-week highs. However, one area of the market that has yet to fully participate in the rally is small-cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. While the Russell 2000 is still up around 4% year-to-date, it has significantly lagged the double-digit gains of its large-cap counterparts.

This underperformance from smaller companies may seem perplexing given the robust economic growth and strong corporate earnings that have powered stocks higher. However, there are a couple potential factors holding small caps back for now.

First, investor sentiment remains somewhat cautious after the banking turmoil of 2023. While the systemic crisis was averted, tighter lending standards could disproportionately impact smaller businesses that rely more heavily on bank financing. Recent upticks in loan activity provide some optimism that credit conditions may be thawing.

The other overhang for small caps has been the aggressive interest rate hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Higher borrowing costs weigh more heavily on smaller companies compared to their large-cap peers. However, the Fed is now expected to pivot towards rate cuts later in 2024 once inflation is tamed, providing a potential catalyst for small-cap outperformance.

Historically, small caps have tended to lead coming out of economic downturns and in the early stages of new bull markets. Their higher growth orientation allows them to capitalize more quickly on an inflection in the business cycle. A timely Fed pivot to lower rates could be the rocket fuel that allows the Russell 2000 to start playing catch-up in the second half of 2024.

For investors, any near-term consolidation in small caps may present opportunistic entry points in this economically-sensitive segment of the market. While volatility should be expected, the lofty valuations of large-cap tech and momentum plays leave less room for further upside. Well-managed small caps with pricing power and secure funding could offer asymmetric upside as the economic landscape becomes more hospitable in the latter part of the year.

For long-term investors, any potential small-cap rebound could be particularly compelling given the cyclical nature of small versus large-cap performance. Over decades of market history, there has been a tendency for leadership to rotate between the two size segments. After large caps dominated the past decade, buoyed by the tech titans and slow-growth environment, the economic restart could allow small caps to regain leadership.

From a portfolio construction standpoint, maintaining exposure to both small and large caps can provide important diversification benefits. The low correlation between the size segments helps smooth out overall equity volatility. And for investors already overweight large caps after years of outperformance, trimming some of those positions to reallocate towards small caps could prove timely.

While major indexes continue grinding higher, prudent investors should avoid complacency and think about positioning for what could be a new market regime. Small caps have historically possessed a robust return premium over large caps. As the economic backdrops evolves, 2024 may mark the start of small caps returning to form as drivers of broad market returns once again.

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Dow Smashes Through 40,000 as Unstoppable Rally Reaches New Heights

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a feat cementing the relentless momentum of the historic bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has obliterated the 40,000 milestone for the first time ever. The blue-chip index’s new record high represents the culmination of a stupendous 15-month surge, defying fears of an economic downturn while leaving skeptics grasping for explanations.

The Dow’s ascension through 40,000 highlights the astounding resilience fueling U.S. equities. Robust corporate profits, rapidly cooling inflation, and rising optimism over the Federal Reserve’s ability to orchestrate a “soft landing” have emboldened investors. Propelling the rally, expectations have solidified that the central bank is nearing the conclusion of its aggressive rate hiking campaign to subdue elevated prices.

Market pricing now reflects two quarter-point interest rate cuts likely by year-end, with overwhelming odds of the first reduction materializing as soon as September. The dovish pivot aligns with this week’s cooler-than-anticipated consumer price data, relieving pressure on the Fed to maintain its hawkish posture.

The Dow’s remarkable feat has been powered by heroic gains among its elite constituents throughout 2023. Semiconductor titan Nvidia has skyrocketed 94% higher amid the AI frenzy. Industrial titans like 3M, Salesforce, Boeing and Walgreens Boots Alliance have all tacked on over 20%. Even beleaguered First Republic Bank remains up 17% year-to-date despite its recent turmoil.

For investors, the Dow’s breach of 40,000 represents the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. The milestone solidifies the “Goldilocks” scenario playing out of moderating inflation and resilient growth, providing a springboard for further gains as concerns over economic overheating fade. While risks remain of a potential inflationary resurgence, excessively tight labor conditions forcing more Fed hawkishness, or a hard landing, the prevailing mood is overwhelmingly bullish.

Stretched valuations, with the S&P 500 trading north of 20x forward earnings, represent a valid concern. But traders and Wall Street strategists remain steadfastly focused on embracing the upside, brushing aside such worries amid a torrent of positive price momentum and fundamentals. The Dow’s coronation at 40,000 is emblematic of this euphoric mindset.

For the record books, the Dow ultimately settled the session at 39,869.38, up over 19% year-to-date after reaching an intraday record of 40,038.87 before paring gains. While symbolic, the new milestone supremely underscores the dynamism and strength across Corporate America’s boardrooms and C-suites. With earnings continuing to impress amid the rate cutting pivot, many on Wall Street expect the stock market’s electrifying run to continue regaling investors.

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Russell Reconstitution 2024, What Investors Should Know

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Annual Russell Index Revision and Dates to Watch (2024)

The yearly process of recasting the Russell Indexes begins on Tuesday, April 30 and will be complete by market opening on June 30. During the period in between, FTSE Russell will rank stocks for additions, for deletions and evaluate the companies to make sure they conform overall. The methodology for inserting and removing tickers in the Russell 3000, Russell 2000, and Russell 1000 is intentionally transparent to help eliminate price shocks. Price movements do of course occur along the way, and investors try to foresee and capitalize on them. Channelchek will be providing updates that may uncover opportunities, or at least provide an understanding of stock price swings during this period.

Background

Russell index products are widely used by institutional and retail investors throughout the world. There is more than $20.1 trillion currently benchmarked to a Russell index. This includes approximately $12.1 trillion benchmarked to the Russell US Equity indexes. The trading volume of some companies moving into an index will heighten around the last Friday in June as fund managers seek to maintain level tracking with their benchmark target.

Opportunity

For non-passive investing, determining which stocks may benefit from moving up to a large-cap index, down to a smaller one, or into or out of the measurements is an annual event causing volatility around stocks. There has, of course, the potential for very profitable long and short trades. And the potential for an unwitting investor to be holding a company moving out of an index, which could cause less interest in the stock, and perhaps unfortunate performance.

Active investors should make themselves aware of the forces at play so they may either get out of the way or determine if they should become involved by taking positions with those being added or those at the end of their reign within one of the Russell measurements.

Dramatic Valuation Shifts

The leading industries and altered market-cap of companies of a year ago have changed dramatically from last year’s reconstitution. This will be reflected in the 2023 rebalancing and is going to impact a much larger number of companies than most years. That is to say, a higher percentage of companies than normal will move in, out, or to another index, and may be subject to amplified price movement.

The 2024 Russell Reconstitution Schedule:

• Tuesday, April 30th – “Rank Day” – Index membership eligibility for 2024 Russell Reconstitution determined from constituent market capitalization at market close.

• Friday, May 24 – Preliminary index additions & deletions membership lists posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.

•   Friday, May 31st, June 7th, 14th and 21st – Preliminary membership lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6 PM US eastern time.

• Monday, June 10th – “Lock-down” period begins with the updates to reconstitution membership considered to be final.

• Friday, June 28th – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.

• Monday, July 1st – Equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.

Take-Away

The annual reconstitution is a significant driver of dramatic shifts in some stock prices as portfolio managers have their holding needs shifted within a very short period of time. Longer-term demand for certain equities is altered as well. Sizable price movements and volatility are expected, especially around the last week in June. In fact, the opening day of the reconstitution is typically one of the highest trading-volume days of the year in the US equity markets.

The market event impacts more than $9 trillion of investor assets benchmarked to or invested in products based on the Russell US Indexes. Portfolio managers that are required to track one of these indexes will work to have minimal portfolio slippage away from their benchmark.  The days and weeks from April 30 through the last Friday in June can create opportunities for investors seeking to benefit from price moves, Channelchek will be covering the event as stocks to be added to, or removed from this year’s Russell Reconstitution and other information plays out.

Take a look at the Russell Reconstitution Guide for 2025

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GameStop Frenzy Erupts as “Roaring Kitty” Resurfaces After 3 Years

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In an explosive return, the man who inspired the historic GameStop “meme stock” mania in 2021 has re-emerged from a three-year hiatus – sending shockwaves through Wall Street once again.

Keith Gill, known online as the legendary “Roaring Kitty” had been silent across social media since rallying an “ape army” of retail traders to bet big against hedge funds that were shorting GameStop stock. That is, until May 13th, 2024, when he ominously posted a simple image of an intensely focused video gamer to his X account.

The GameStop “Roaring Kitty” Rallying Cry Heard Again
It was all the wake-up call the meme stock movement needed. Within hours of Gill’s first post in over 1,000 days, shares of GameStop Corp (GME) were halted for volatility multiple times as they skyrocketed as much as 110%. When the mayhem settled, the video game retailer’s stock closed a staggering 70% higher on the day.

The Roaring Kitty-inspired surge was a flashback to January 2021, when GameStop became the poster child for a new era of disruption on Wall Street. Gill’s passionate YouTube streams advocating for the struggling company had mobilized a horde of online day traders from the Reddit forum r/WallStreetBets.

By piling into GameStop shares and options contracts, these self-dubbed “apes” triggered a cataclysmic short squeeze – forcing institutional investors with massive bearish bets against GME to cover their positions at rapidly escalating prices. Within two weeks, the stock had captured the world’s attention by inexplicably spiking over 2,700% from $17.25 to an intraday peak of $483.

Hedge Fund Decimation and Hollywood Deals
Billion-dollar hedge funds like Melvin Capital were decimated by the GameStop short squeeze, requiring emergency cash injections to stay afloat. The historic market event shined a light on the fragility of Wall Street’s short-selling practices and the power of unified retail investors.

Roaring Kitty himself faced intense scrutiny over his role. Gill testified before Congress about his GameStop windfall and was slapped with a class-action lawsuit alleging he misrepresented his expertise. The saga even inspired the 2023 feature film “Dumb Money,” with actor Paul Dano portraying Gill’s journey to meme stock fame.

Can Lightning Strike Twice for Meme Stocks?
While the hype around GameStop had cooled off in recent years, Roaring Kitty’s comeback appearance instantly rejuvenated the movement he started. But can retail traders engineer another shocking short squeeze against institutional behemoths?

GameStop’s core business remains on shaky ground against digital downloads and e-commerce juggernauts. In its latest earnings report, the company posted lower revenue and cut jobs to reduce costs, showing its stock may still be disconnected from fundamentals.

However, with Roaring Kitty leading the rallying cry once more, the army of “ape” traders is ready to shake up the establishment all over again. And with nearly 25% of GameStop’s shares still sold short, the conditions may be ripe for another seismic confrontation in the meme stock revolution.

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Robinhood’s Crypto Arm Receives Wells Notice from SEC: What Investors Need to Know

Posted on by cpatches

On May 4, 2024, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) announced that its cryptocurrency trading division, Robinhood Crypto, had been served with a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The news sent ripples through the market, prompting concerns among investors and stakeholders. But what exactly does this mean for Robinhood and its investors?

A Wells notice is not a confirmation of guilt but rather a formal notification from the SEC indicating its intent to recommend enforcement action against a company or individual. In Robinhood’s case, the SEC alleges potential violations of Sections 15(a) and 17A of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. This notice follows a prior SEC investigation into Robinhood Crypto’s cryptocurrency listings, custody practices, and platform operations.

Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance, and corporate affairs officer, emphasized the company’s stance, stating, “We firmly believe that the assets listed on our platform are not securities and we look forward to engaging with the SEC to make clear just how weak any case against Robinhood Crypto would be.” Despite the Wells notice, Robinhood remains resolute in its position regarding the nature of the assets listed on its platform.

The receipt of a Wells notice can have multifaceted implications for both the company and its investors. From a financial perspective, Robinhood could face increased legal costs associated with defending against potential enforcement actions. Moreover, the company’s reputation may suffer, potentially leading to decreased investor confidence and stock price volatility. However, it’s essential to note that a Wells notice does not guarantee the ultimate filing of enforcement actions, and the outcome of any regulatory proceedings remains uncertain.

Following the announcement, Robinhood’s stock experienced a brief downturn in pre-market trading, dropping as much as 9%. However, the stock quickly rebounded after the opening bell. Year-to-date, Robinhood’s stock has seen substantial growth, up more than 43%, while bitcoin futures have climbed over 50%. The market’s reaction underscores the uncertainty surrounding the potential implications of the Wells notice on Robinhood’s future performance.

As Robinhood prepares to navigate the regulatory landscape in response to the Wells notice, investors should closely monitor developments and assess the potential impact on the company’s operations and financial health. While uncertainties loom, Robinhood’s proactive approach and commitment to engaging with the SEC signal its intent to address regulatory concerns head-on. Ultimately, the resolution of this matter will shape the trajectory of Robinhood’s journey in the crypto space and its relationship with investors moving forward.

Yellen Sounds Alarm on “Impossible” Housing Market for First-Time Buyers

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

For investors looking at hot housing sectors, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just aired some cold hard truths about the brutal landscape facing first-time homebuyers. In testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, the former Federal Reserve chair minced no words in declaring it “almost impossible” for those trying to get that coveted first rung on the property ladder.

“With house prices having gone up and now with much higher interest and mortgage rates, it’s almost impossible for first-time buyers,” Yellen bluntly stated, citing the twin pains of home price appreciation and elevated financing costs.

Her candid assessment encapsulates the scorching environment scorching the dreams of millions of aspiring homeowners. After a pandemic-driven housing boom, the headwinds buffeting the entry-level market show no signs of abating:

Prices at Nosebleed Heights
According to Zillow data, a staggering 550 U.S. cities now have median home values topping the once-unthinkable $1 million mark. California accounts for nearly 40% of those cities, with the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas ground zero for pricing outliers.

Mortgage Rates Kryptonite
The days of locking in a 30-year mortgage under 3% now seem quaint relics. As the Fed jacked rates higher to tame inflation, average mortgage rates soared past 7% as of early 2024 – more than double pandemic-era levels. For cash-strapped first-timers, that translates into over $600 extra in monthly payments for a $400,000 loan.

Inventory Drought
Perhaps the biggest obstacle is critically low supply pipelines thanks to existing homeowners being financially “locked-in” to their low mortgage rates, as Yellen described it. They are disincentivized from listing and moving to avoid securing a new mortgage at higher rates – leading to a self-perpetuating cycle.

Rapacious Investor Competition
Even affordable starter homes in short supply are being ravenously consumed by investors. A Redfin report showed they purchased over 1 in 4 U.S. homes in Q4 2023 alone. With hedge funds and private equity firms devoting massive capital to residential real estate, it’s perhaps the biggest pricing pressure of all.

Yellen herself acknowledged the troubling dynamic, stating “We know that affordable housing and starter homes are an area where we really need to do a lot to increase availability.”

So what is being done to combat the brutal affordability crisis freezing out so many first-time buyers? The Biden administration has floated a novel twin tax credit concept:

  • A $10,000 credit for first-time homebuyers could provide vital funds for larger down payments to offset higher rates.
  • A separate $10,000 credit incentivizing existing owners to sell their “starter home” when upsizing could modestly relieve inventory shortages.

Some lawmakers are taking a more forceful approach – moving to punish corporate real estate investors gobbling up residential properties. Proposals include revoking depreciation and mortgage interest deductions, penalty taxes, and even mandates to divest rental home portfolios over time.

Whether such measures gain traction remains to be seen. But there’s no denying the current state of housing markets represents something close to a perfect storm for strivers trying to get in the game.

As an investor, the opportunities are evident amid the obstacles:

  • A generational housing shortage should keep upward pressure on asset pricing
  • Financing challenges and inventory scarcity create huge pent-up demand tailwinds for homebuilders
  • Solutions like single-family rental operators may temporarily ease entry-level pressures
  • And any public-private innovations that help reignite first-time buyer demand could be lucrative portfolio additions

Because for now – as Janet Yellen so starkly articulated – breaking into the housing market as a newcomer is indeed “almost impossible” based on today’s towering barriers. Sometimes the frank truth is the first step towards meaningful investment opportunities.