Category: Markets

Wall Street Boosts S&P 500 Targets on AI Momentum and Earnings Strength

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wall Street’s bullish sentiment is gaining momentum as the S&P 500 hovers near record highs ahead of earnings season. Despite political uncertainty in Washington and lingering concerns about an “AI bubble,” several top strategists are raising their forecasts, pointing to what they describe as “fundamental strength” across corporate earnings and continued support from Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research lifted his S&P 500 target to 7,000, calling the ongoing rally a “slow-motion melt-up” fueled by resilient profits and Fed easing. Similarly, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel maintained a 7,750 base-case target for 2026, assigning a 30% probability to a “bubble scenario” that could propel the index to 9,000 if AI-driven capital investment accelerates.

Signs of that exuberance are already visible. On Monday, OpenAI revealed a multibillion-dollar deal with AMD, granting the ChatGPT maker rights to acquire up to 10% of the chip giant as part of what executives have dubbed “the world’s most ambitious AI buildout.” The announcement sparked renewed optimism in semiconductor and software names, reinforcing the view that AI investment remains the market’s primary growth engine.

Yet, opinions remain divided. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos recently described the AI boom as a “good kind of bubble” that could fuel long-term innovation and economic expansion. In contrast, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon urged caution, suggesting that some capital deployed in the AI race may not yield the expected returns, potentially setting up a correction in the next year or two.

That debate is playing out against elevated valuations. The S&P 500 is trading near 25 times expected 2025 earnings, a level DataTrek Research says “reflects complete confidence” that companies will deliver. Analysts project 13% earnings growth in 2026 and another 10% in 2027, driven primarily by the same mega-cap technology stocks that have led markets higher this year.

Big Tech now represents nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and other AI-focused firms comprising 48% of the index. Analysts note that “multiple expansion” in these names is the foundation of the bull case, with a record number of tech giants issuing positive earnings guidance last quarter — a signal that earnings momentum remains intact heading into Q3 results.

Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin argue that Wall Street’s current earnings forecasts are too conservative, citing strong macro data and robust AI-driven demand. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson echoed that optimism, noting that lower labor costs and pent-up demand could spark a return of “positive operating leverage” — where profits grow faster than revenues — not seen since 2021.

While some investors remain wary of inflation’s potential return, Wilson believes it could be a tailwind rather than a threat, with the Fed likely to tolerate higher prices as long as growth remains solid.

As earnings season begins, the question for investors is not whether the rally can continue — but whether it is still being driven by fundamentals or increasingly by momentum.

Federal Reserve Navigates Uncertainty Amid Missing Jobs Report

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

With a pivotal government jobs report missing due to a shutdown, the Federal Reserve faces an unusual challenge: steering monetary policy without its most relied-upon labor data. For small cap investors, these developments could signal both opportunity and risk in the months ahead.

Traditionally, the monthly nonfarm payrolls report serves as a critical guidepost for Federal Reserve officials setting interest rates. This month, that data’s absence leaves policymakers “flying blind,” navigating with only private sector and anecdotal sources. Despite this, markets remain confident that Fed rate cuts are still on the horizon. Traders currently price in a 97% chance of a quarter-point cut to 3.75–4% at the upcoming October meeting, with another probable reduction at the year’s end.

Without federal data, Fed officials are turning to private sources. ADP’s recent payroll report showed a surprising 32,000 job decline for September, while the Indeed Job Postings Index revealed a cooling labor market, with overall postings down 2.5% month-over-month, though still above pre-pandemic levels by 2.9%. Banking and finance was the only sector to show growth in job postings year-over-year, suggesting broad-based weakness elsewhere.

Wage growth, tracked by the Indeed Wage Tracker, has also lagged behind inflation in recent months, underscoring ongoing stagnation in the labor market. Layoff announcements reflect a mixed picture: Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 54,064 planned job cuts in September—a 37% drop from August—but overall layoff plans for Q3 are at their highest since 2020, possibly breaching one million for the year.

The lack of official jobs data has heightened uncertainty within the Federal Reserve. “Reliable federal data, especially related to price levels and inflation, is hard to replace,” said Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed, emphasizing the difficulty policymakers face in making informed decisions in uncertain times.

Policymaker opinion is split. Some, like Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, advocate caution, supporting one rate cut now but warning against aggressive easing that could stoke inflation risks. Conversely, Fed governor Michelle Bowman sees the central bank “at serious risk of being behind the curve” and suggests a more forceful response to what she calls a “deteriorating labor market.” Fed governor Stephen Miran even called for five additional cuts this year.

For small cap investors, these crosscurrents create a dynamic environment. The expected rate cuts could ease borrowing costs and fuel risk appetite, aiding smaller companies that depend on credit and consumer demand. However, if labor market weakness deepens or inflation stays stubbornly high, downside volatility could increase.

Private estimates suggest the government’s jobs tally for September would have been modest—workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs forecasts a gain of 60,000 jobs, while economists estimate around 50,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. This reinforces views of a slow recovery, not a robust rebound, and calls for careful positioning in sectors with demonstrated resilience.

Trump Expands Tariff Regime With Up to 100% Duties on Drugs, Furniture and Trucks

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping new round of tariffs on Thursday, targeting industries from pharmaceuticals to heavy trucks and furniture in what marks one of the most aggressive expansions of his trade agenda to date. The tariffs will range from 30% to 100%, with the heaviest duties falling on patented prescription drugs unless their producers establish manufacturing facilities within the United States.

The pharmaceutical sector sits at the center of the new policy. Under the plan, companies that are not actively building domestic plants face tariffs as high as 100% on patented drugs imported into the U.S. The administration has framed the move as a way to push drugmakers to “reshore” production after years of relying on overseas supply chains.

The measures add new layers to Trump’s already extensive tariff program, which has been rolled out in waves since 2018. While the pharmaceutical duties were previewed earlier this year, the inclusion of industries such as furniture and heavy trucks represents a new front in the administration’s trade efforts.

The White House is also signaling plans to reshape semiconductor supply chains. According to administration officials, chipmakers will be asked to manufacture in the U.S. at least as many chips as they sell domestically, with tariffs applied to firms that fail to meet a 1:1 production-to-import ratio. The move comes amid concerns about the nation’s reliance on foreign-made semiconductors, a vulnerability highlighted by recent supply disruptions.

Trump has suggested using tariff revenue to support U.S. farmers who may be squeezed by the new trade measures. He has argued that while agricultural producers could feel pain in the short term, tariff-driven policy shifts would ultimately benefit them. Still, it remains unclear how relief would be delivered. Any bailout plan could run into legal hurdles, with the Supreme Court preparing to weigh in on challenges to the tariff program. Lower courts have previously ruled against aspects of the administration’s trade authority, raising the possibility that billions in tariff collections could be subject to refund.

The tariff announcement arrives as the U.S. and China move toward broader trade negotiations. Reports indicate the two nations are finalizing a large aircraft purchase by Beijing, potentially involving Boeing, which could serve as a centerpiece of a wider agreement. Trump has described the discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping as “productive,” noting that the two leaders have agreed to continue talks in the coming months.

The administration has also linked progress in trade talks with other economic and political issues. Earlier this month, the White House confirmed that Oracle would participate in a U.S.-based consortium to manage TikTok operations, part of a wider effort to reshape the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

Investors remain divided on the long-term effects of the new tariffs. While supporters argue the measures will bring manufacturing jobs back to U.S. soil and strengthen domestic industries, critics warn that higher costs could be passed on to consumers and businesses, dampening growth. The pharmaceutical sector, in particular, could face significant disruption as companies weigh the high costs of reshoring production against the risk of steep import penalties.

With the 2024–2025 trade agenda expanding rapidly, the coming months will test whether the administration can balance its protectionist push with the need to maintain global supply chains and avoid further economic strain.

Jobless Claims Fall to 218,000, Beating Expectations as Economic Data Shows Resilience

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week, signaling continued resilience in the labor market even as hiring has slowed and the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on economic momentum.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, according to the Labor Department. That was a drop of 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised level and came in well below the consensus forecast of 235,000. Continuing claims, which measure those still receiving benefits, edged slightly lower to 1.926 million.

The latest claims figures arrive against a backdrop of uncertainty about the economy’s trajectory. Payroll growth has cooled, and job openings remain at multiyear lows. The Fed recently responded by cutting its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, its first reduction of 2025. Policymakers cited rising risks to employment as one factor behind the decision.

Still, the claims data suggests companies remain hesitant to lay off workers despite a noticeable pullback in hiring. Volatility in weekly figures continues, with Texas accounting for a sizable portion of recent swings, but the broader picture points to a labor market that is holding firmer than many expected.

Beyond the employment data, Thursday also brought signs of strength in other corners of the economy. Gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to an annualized gain of 3.8%. That marked a half-point improvement from the prior estimate and reflected stronger consumer spending than initially reported. Personal consumption, which makes up about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 2.5% pace, well above earlier estimates and the tepid 0.6% increase seen in the first quarter.

Durable goods orders added to the positive picture. Purchases of long-lasting items such as appliances, aircraft, and computers climbed 2.9% in August, defying forecasts for a decline and reversing a steep drop from July. Even excluding transportation equipment, orders grew 0.4% in the month and 1.9% when defense-related spending was excluded, underscoring broad-based demand.

The housing sector, which has been under pressure from higher borrowing costs, also showed signs of improvement. Sales of newly built homes jumped 20.5% in August, the largest monthly gain since early 2022. Existing home sales came in slightly ahead of expectations at an annualized rate of 4 million.

Taken together, the data paints a picture of an economy that continues to expand despite headwinds from tighter credit conditions, shifting trade policies, and global geopolitical challenges. Markets currently anticipate that the Fed will follow through with two more rate cuts before the end of the year, at its October and December meetings.

While policymakers acknowledge that growth is being restrained by elevated borrowing costs, they also see resilience across consumer spending, business investment, and labor markets. That combination has kept the outlook more balanced than some had feared heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Investors Lock in $43 Billion in Gains from U.S. Stock Funds

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. equity funds faced significant withdrawals last week as investors rushed to lock in profits following a powerful rally fueled by the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. According to LSEG Lipper data, equity funds saw $43.19 billion in outflows in the week ending September 17, marking the largest withdrawal since December 2024.

The selloff came just as the S&P 500 surged to a record 6,656.8, representing a nearly 38% climb from its April 2024 low of 4,835. The sharp rally, combined with stretched valuations, prompted investors to reallocate capital to safer assets. Market watchers noted that forward price-to-earnings ratios for the index are now sitting at levels rarely seen over the past two decades, making equities vulnerable to profit-taking and potential volatility.

Large-cap funds bore the brunt of the outflows, shedding $34.19 billion in the week — the biggest drawdown since at least 2020. Mid-cap funds also recorded $1.58 billion in redemptions, while small-cap funds bucked the trend with a modest $50 million in inflows. Sector funds were not spared either, with technology-focused vehicles suffering $2.84 billion in withdrawals, contributing to a net $1.24 billion outflow across all sectors.

While equities stumbled, fixed income funds continued to attract investor attention. U.S. bond funds saw $7.33 billion in fresh inflows, extending their streak to 22 consecutive weeks. Short-to-intermediate investment-grade funds led the way, alongside general domestic taxable fixed income products and municipal debt funds, which all posted over $1 billion in gains.

Meanwhile, money market funds experienced a sharp reversal. After three straight weeks of net inflows, investors pulled $23.65 billion, suggesting a shift away from cash holdings as capital moved into bonds and other yield-generating instruments.

The rotation underscores two structural themes shaping markets this fall: heightened caution on overextended equity valuations and a renewed appetite for fixed income as investors prepare for a more dovish Federal Reserve in the months ahead. With rate cuts expected to continue, bond yields remain attractive compared to the perceived risks of chasing equities at record highs.

This move comes just days after the Russell 2000 hit a record high, signaling shifting dynamics between large- and small-cap stocks. However, the latest flow data suggests that, despite optimism about monetary policy, many investors prefer to secure recent gains rather than risk a pullback.

The coming weeks will be pivotal as markets digest the Fed’s updated economic projections and policy guidance. Whether the current profit-taking proves temporary or marks the beginning of a broader correction may depend on how quickly earnings growth can catch up with elevated valuations.

Federal Reserve Delivers First Rate Cut of 2025, Signals More Easing Ahead

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time this year, reducing its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The move marks the Fed’s first policy easing since December and sets the stage for additional cuts as officials adjust to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation.

The decision, made in a split vote, reflects growing concern about slowing job growth and rising unemployment. In August, the economy added just 22,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. Recent revisions also showed weaker job growth in earlier months, reinforcing the case for easing monetary policy. The Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” projections now point to two more rate cuts before the end of 2025, up from earlier expectations.

The outlook among policymakers remains divided, however. The updated dot plot showed nine officials anticipating three cuts this year, six projecting just one, and a small minority envisioning either no cuts or significantly more. For 2026, the consensus is for one additional reduction.

Economic projections released alongside the decision highlight both resilience and challenges. Inflation is expected to rise 3.1% this year, unchanged from prior estimates, while GDP growth was upgraded slightly to 1.6% from 1.4%. The unemployment rate is forecast to reach 4.5% by year-end, reflecting mounting labor market softness.

The Fed’s move comes amid heightened political scrutiny. President Donald Trump has been pressing for lower interest rates, repeatedly criticizing the central bank for acting too slowly. His influence on the institution has grown, with newly confirmed governor Stephen Miran—previously a White House economic adviser—joining the board in time for this meeting. Miran favored a larger half-point cut, underscoring divisions within the Fed about how aggressively to ease policy.

At the same time, Trump has sought to reshape the central bank’s leadership. His administration attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook, but courts have so far blocked the effort. Cook participated in this week’s meeting following rulings that found insufficient grounds for her dismissal. The legal battle over her position is expected to continue, potentially reaching the Supreme Court.

The Fed now faces the delicate task of balancing weaker labor data with inflation that remains well above its 2% target. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 3.1% in August, matching July’s reading and showing little progress in bringing inflation lower. This persistence complicates the Fed’s ability to cut rates quickly without risking renewed price pressures.

For financial markets, the latest move confirms expectations of a shift toward looser monetary policy. Investors had already priced in a September cut, but the signal of further easing provided an additional boost to assets that benefit from lower rates, including equities and gold. The dollar weakened following the announcement, reflecting anticipation of easier financial conditions.

As the year progresses, the central bank’s policy path will remain a focal point for markets, businesses, and households. With economic data softening and political pressures intensifying, the Fed’s challenge will be to support growth without reigniting inflation risks.

Russell 2000 Rally Gains Steam With Rate Cuts on the Horizon

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks smaller and riskier U.S. companies, has staged an impressive rally in recent weeks — and analysts believe the momentum could last well into the next 12 months.

Since the end of July, the Russell 2000 has climbed nearly 10%, more than double the advance of the S&P 500. Wall Street strategists see room for an additional 20% gain in the index over the next year, compared to expectations of an 11% rise in the broader S&P 500, according to Bloomberg data.

The outlook is notable given small caps’ underperformance in recent years. Since 2020, the Russell 2000 has consistently lagged behind large-cap peers. Even after the latest rebound, the index trails the S&P 500 for 2025. However, analysts argue that a shift in monetary policy could change the dynamic.

With the Federal Reserve expected to begin cutting interest rates, borrowing costs for smaller firms are likely to ease, providing a meaningful boost to margins. Because companies in the Russell 2000 are more sensitive to credit conditions, lower rates could spark renewed investor interest and broaden a bull market that has so far been led by large-cap names.

Recent market reactions highlight the trend. After new inflation and jobs data reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts, the Russell 2000 rose 1.2% in a single session, outpacing the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain. Investors appear to be positioning for an extended period of small-cap outperformance.

Corporate earnings are also helping the case. In the second quarter, more than 60% of Russell 2000 companies beat profit forecasts, with average revenue growth surpassing expectations by 130 basis points. Stronger earnings, combined with rate cuts and attractive valuations, provide what some strategists describe as a compelling setup for small-cap equities.

Valuations remain a central theme. While the Russell 2000’s price-to-earnings ratio has risen to slightly above its long-term average following the recent rally, the index still trades at a wide discount to large-cap stocks. This valuation gap, coupled with improved sentiment, suggests further upside potential.

Options activity reflects the growing bullish stance. Data from Cboe Global Markets indicates stronger demand for upside calls on the Russell 2000 than on the S&P 500, showing investors are positioning for continued gains in areas where they remain underexposed.

Fund flows are also supportive. Passive investments into small-cap funds have turned positive, reversing prior outflows. Some strategists caution that sustained gains will still depend on broader economic momentum, but improving earnings revisions and investor interest point to a constructive backdrop.

Wall Street firms including Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and U.S. Bank have highlighted small caps as an underappreciated segment with significant catch-up potential. If the Fed delivers the expected series of rate cuts, the coming year could see the Russell 2000 play a leading role in U.S. equity markets for the first time in years.

Inflation Rises in August, Fed Faces Tough Balancing Act on Rates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. inflation edged higher in August, complicating the Federal Reserve’s decision-making as it prepares for its September policy meeting. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year, up from July’s 2.7% pace, while monthly prices climbed 0.4%—a faster increase than the prior month. The uptick was fueled by persistently high gasoline prices and firmer food costs, underscoring the challenge of controlling inflation while navigating a slowing economy.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 3.1% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%, marking the strongest two-month stretch in half a year. Travel and transportation costs stood out as particular pressure points, with airfares jumping nearly 6% in August after a strong gain the previous month. Vehicle prices, both new and used, also reversed earlier declines. Meanwhile, some categories showed moderation, such as medical care and communication services, which provided modest relief.

While the inflation data reflects lingering price pressures, the labor market tells a different story. Weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000—the highest level in nearly four years—suggesting that hiring momentum continues to cool. This comes on the heels of government revisions showing that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported between March 2024 and March 2025. Taken together, the data points to a labor market losing steam even as certain costs remain stubborn.

Markets are betting that the Fed will still cut interest rates next week, with traders pricing in an 88% probability of a quarter-point reduction and an 11% chance of a half-point move. By year-end, expectations remain for a total of 75 basis points in cuts. For policymakers, the dilemma is clear: inflation is not fully under control, but economic softness is becoming too pronounced to ignore.

The inflation numbers also highlight the effect of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are filtering into consumer prices unevenly. Gasoline and travel costs remain elevated, while categories such as lodging and some services show weakness, pointing to households feeling the pinch in essential spending areas. At the same time, producer prices declined 0.1% in August, suggesting that businesses are absorbing some of the additional costs rather than passing them entirely to consumers.

The Federal Reserve now faces a delicate balancing act. Cutting rates too aggressively could risk reigniting inflationary pressures, especially if energy and trade-related costs remain sticky. Moving too cautiously, however, could deepen the strain on employment and consumer confidence, potentially tipping the economy toward recessionary conditions.

Investors are watching closely not only for the rate decision but also for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging. With both inflation and unemployment data pulling in different directions, the September meeting will serve as a pivotal moment for how the Fed charts its course through a complex and fragile economic backdrop.

US Jobs Revision Wipes Out 911,000 Positions, Raising Alarms About Economic Momentum

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. labor market just got a reality check — and it’s a sobering one. A government revision revealed that the economy employed 911,000 fewer people as of March 2025 than initially reported, exposing a far weaker job market than policymakers and the public had believed. The new data, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shows the slowdown began months before the summer headlines of weakening payrolls and rising unemployment.

The revision, covering the 12 months between March 2024 and March 2025, slashes average monthly job gains from an already modest 147,000 to just 71,000. For context, that’s less than half the pace originally reported and a figure that suggests the labor market was cooling long before the recent downturn. Economists had anticipated downward revisions, but the scale was startling — many expected about 700,000 fewer jobs, while the actual figure exceeded even the most pessimistic forecasts.

Industries that once looked like pillars of resilience proved more fragile under scrutiny. Leisure and hospitality was revised down by 176,000 jobs, erasing gains that had been touted as proof of post-pandemic recovery strength. Professional and business services followed with a downward revision of 158,000 jobs, signaling weakness in white-collar employment as well. Overall, the private sector absorbed the brunt, losing 880,000 jobs in the revision, while government payrolls were adjusted down by 31,000.

These annual revisions are routine, as the BLS incorporates more accurate data like unemployment insurance filings. But the magnitude of recent adjustments has been unusually large, feeding political tensions and raising questions about the reliability of initial reporting. Last year’s revision cut 818,000 jobs, landing right in the middle of the presidential campaign and fueling criticism from then-candidate Donald Trump.

Now, President Trump is in office and once again pointing to the BLS, accusing it of producing “phony” numbers. He has already dismissed the agency’s former commissioner and nominated E.J. Antoni, a vocal critic from the Heritage Foundation, to lead the bureau. Antoni’s confirmation battle will likely intensify after this revision, as the administration pushes for overhauls in how labor data is collected and reported.

Beyond politics, the numbers matter for the Federal Reserve, which is under pressure to respond to slowing job growth and signs of economic fragility. Trump and his allies argue Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been “too late” in cutting rates, claiming the central bank clung too rigidly to its 2% inflation target at the expense of growth. The White House could now use these revisions as further evidence to press its case.

For millions of Americans, though, the revisions underscore a more personal reality. A job market once presented as resilient is now revealed to have been much shakier. With fewer jobs than thought, weaker household income growth, and rising uncertainty, the labor market is entering a precarious phase. The debate in Washington may revolve around statistics, but the impact is being felt in homes and businesses across the country.

Job Openings Slip Below Jobless Figures for First Time Since 2021

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

For the first time in more than four years, the number of unemployed Americans has surpassed the number of available job openings, highlighting a turning point in the post-pandemic labor recovery. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), there were 7.18 million vacancies compared with 7.25 million unemployed workers. This pushed the ratio of job openings to job seekers down to 0.99, the lowest level since April 2021.

The shift marks a departure from the tight labor conditions that dominated much of the past three years, when employers struggled to attract talent and job seekers often had multiple options. Instead, the balance has tipped slightly in favor of employers, with fewer roles available and greater competition among applicants.

The data suggests the softer labor conditions are being driven more by a slowdown in hiring demand than a surge in job losses. Layoffs remain relatively subdued, indicating that workers currently employed are not facing widespread displacement. Instead, the challenge lies with individuals attempting to re-enter the workforce or find new opportunities after leaving prior roles.

Economists noted that job openings have been gradually trending lower throughout 2024 and 2025, rather than collapsing suddenly. This indicates a measured cooling rather than a shock-driven downturn, which is consistent with an economy that is slowing toward equilibrium rather than tipping into recession.

On the supply side, labor force participation fell to its lowest since late 2022. Demographics are partly to blame: the U.S. workforce continues to age, and participation among older workers has steadily declined. Policy also plays a role, as more restrictive immigration measures in recent years have limited the inflow of working-age migrants, reducing available labor.

While fewer workers in the labor pool can put pressure on certain industries still seeking talent, it also means that the rise in unemployment is cushioned compared to previous downturns. With both supply and demand easing at the same time, the job market appears to be rebalancing rather than unraveling.

For job seekers, the environment has become more competitive. Workers without recent employment may find it harder to secure positions, as openings are spread more thinly across industries. However, the relative stability of layoffs indicates that those currently in jobs are less vulnerable to sudden cuts, reducing the risk of mass unemployment events that typically accompany recessions.

The JOLTS report adds to the broader picture of a cooling labor market but stops short of signaling a contraction. Payroll gains and unemployment rates remain within ranges considered sustainable by economists, suggesting that conditions are closer to a long-term “steady state” rather than a downturn. The upcoming August employment report will provide further clarity, particularly on whether employers are continuing to add jobs at a pace consistent with stable growth.

Treasury Yields Spike as 30-Year Nears 5% Amid Global Bond Sell-Off

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, as long-dated European bonds sold off and a busy slate of corporate debt offerings pressured markets. The 30-year Treasury yield approached the 5% mark, reflecting investor concern over the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy and broader economic conditions.

The move came as traders returned from the holiday weekend, digesting weak ISM manufacturing data that signaled softness in employment, overall activity, and prices paid, although new orders showed some recovery. Benchmark Treasury yields climbed roughly three basis points across the curve, with the 10-year and 30-year notes leading the advance. Block trades, including a large buyer of 10,000 10-year note contracts, helped stabilize yields near their session highs.

Yields in the United Kingdom and Europe also surged, contributing to pressure on U.S. debt markets. Analysts suggest that global long-term rates are recalibrating in response to rising inflation expectations abroad and uncertainties in policy direction. John Briggs, head of U.S. rates strategy at Natixis North America, noted that the 30-year approaching 5% is not a “magical number” but reflects genuine concerns about the path of long-dated bonds globally.

Investors are pricing in expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month, though bets remain modest. Currently, futures indicate roughly 22 basis points of a quarter-point reduction at September’s meeting, with slightly more than two total quarter-point cuts priced by year-end. Analysts caution that the magnitude of easing will depend heavily on the August jobs report due Friday, which will offer a key read on the labor market and economic momentum.

The labor market is central to the Fed’s policy outlook. Governor Christopher Waller has expressed support for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting, but signaled that more aggressive easing could be warranted if employment data show pronounced weakness and inflation remains contained. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate August payrolls rose by only 75,000, with the unemployment rate inching up to 4.3%.

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, emphasized that Treasury yields are pricing in uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves. She highlighted the market’s sensitivity to coherent policy signals and the potential for the jobs report to influence the term premium, particularly in longer maturities.

The spike in yields has important implications for investors and corporations alike. Higher long-term rates increase borrowing costs for issuers and can weigh on equity valuations, particularly for growth and rate-sensitive sectors. Conversely, rate volatility may offer opportunities for fixed-income investors to adjust portfolios in anticipation of potential Fed easing.

Traders also note that September is historically a weak month for long-dated interest-rate exposure, which could compound volatility as markets digest both domestic and international developments. Any deviation from expectations in the jobs report or inflation metrics could sharply alter Treasury pricing and market sentiment.

As the week progresses, all eyes will be on Friday’s employment figures, which are expected to set the tone for the Fed’s September policy decision. Until then, Treasury markets remain on edge, balancing global pressures, domestic economic signals, and uncertainty around the central bank’s path forward.

Housing Market Gains Momentum with Rising Supply and Record July Prices

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. home sales showed signs of renewed momentum in July, offering a glimmer of relief for buyers and sellers navigating one of the tightest housing markets in years. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes increased 2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units. That figure also marked a 0.8% gain compared with July 2024, defying expectations of a modest decline.

The pickup in activity reflects contracts that were signed earlier in the summer, when mortgage rates began to edge down from their spring highs. The average 30-year fixed mortgage briefly exceeded 7% in May but had retreated to around 6.67% by the end of June. That shift helped unlock demand from buyers who had been sidelined by affordability challenges.

At the same time, supply conditions continued to improve. The number of homes available for sale at the end of July climbed to 1.55 million, up nearly 16% from a year ago. That level represents a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since May 2020 but still short of the six-month threshold considered a balanced market. For prospective buyers, the increase in inventory has translated into more choice and slightly less upward pressure on prices.

Even so, home values remain stubbornly high. The median price of an existing home sold in July reached $422,400, a record for the month and 0.2% higher than a year earlier. That marked the 25th consecutive month of annual price gains, underscoring how persistent demand and limited long-term supply continue to shape the market. Still, with wage growth now outpacing home price appreciation in some regions, economists suggest the market could be approaching an inflection point where affordability begins to improve.

Regional and price-segment dynamics reveal additional shifts. Sales activity has been strongest at the higher end of the market, with transactions on homes priced above $1 million jumping more than 7% from a year ago. In contrast, sales of properties priced below $250,000 remained flat or declined, squeezed by limited availability and still-elevated borrowing costs. In the South, where condominium prices have fallen over the past year, demand for that segment showed particular resilience.

Market behavior also reflects growing participation from investors and cash buyers. Investors accounted for 20% of transactions in July, up sharply from 13% a year earlier, likely taking advantage of the increased supply. Meanwhile, 31% of sales were completed with all cash, compared with 27% last July. That unusually high share suggests that wealth from equities and housing gains is playing a greater role in the market.

Homes are also taking longer to sell. The typical property stayed on the market for 28 days in July, compared with 24 days a year ago. First-time buyers accounted for just 28% of sales, slipping from both June and the same month last year, reflecting the ongoing affordability strain at the entry level of the market.

Overall, July’s data points to a housing sector that is slowly recalibrating. Rising inventory and moderating mortgage rates are offering incremental relief, yet prices remain elevated, and demand is concentrated in higher price tiers. Whether the market has reached a true turning point may depend on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates and how quickly supply can return to more balanced levels.

Strong September Corporate Bond Issuance Expected Despite Rate Cut Uncertainty

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. corporate bond market is gearing up for a strong September, with investment-grade issuance expected to remain one of the highest of the year. Market strategists and bankers anticipate that companies will proceed with large volumes of bond sales despite a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Historically, September has been one of the busiest months for investment-grade corporate bond activity, averaging around $140 billion in new deals. Last year set a record, surpassing $172 billion, as companies took advantage of robust investor demand for higher-yielding assets. This year’s issuance is projected to be similarly active, driven primarily by corporate financing needs rather than short-term changes in interest rate forecasts.

Recent economic data has tempered expectations for a substantial Fed rate cut in the near term. Producer price growth accelerated, while consumer price increases aligned with forecasts, suggesting inflation remains stubborn. As a result, markets now anticipate smaller or delayed rate adjustments compared to earlier projections.

Despite the evolving interest rate outlook, corporate treasurers are unlikely to postpone planned September bond offerings. Issuance decisions are typically based on long-term funding strategies and capital requirements, not on the immediate direction of monetary policy. Analysts note that minor movements in yields or credit spreads rarely deter companies from moving forward during this historically active month.

Corporate credit spreads—the additional yield investors demand over U.S. Treasuries—have experienced only modest changes in recent weeks. On average, spreads tightened by about one basis point, leaving them close to multi-decade lows. Bond yields remain below January levels, maintaining favorable financing conditions for issuers.

Industry experts expect that the two weeks leading up to Labor Day will be relatively quiet, as is common, but issuance is likely to accelerate sharply in September. With annual investment-grade supply in the U.S. often approaching $1.5 trillion, market participants anticipate continued heavy calendars in late summer and early fall.

The upcoming wave of bond sales will also be influenced by broader market dynamics, including investor appetite for corporate debt and the ongoing search for yield in a still-uncertain interest rate environment. Many institutional investors view investment-grade corporate bonds as an attractive balance between risk and return, especially when economic data signals resilience in corporate earnings and credit quality.

Overall, the combination of strong historical precedent, stable credit conditions, and ongoing financing needs suggests that September will remain a peak month for U.S. corporate bond issuance. Whether or not the Fed adjusts rates in the near term, companies are expected to press forward, ensuring the corporate bond market stays active as the year heads into its final quarter.