Category: Markets

Housing Market Gains Momentum with Rising Supply and Record July Prices

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. home sales showed signs of renewed momentum in July, offering a glimmer of relief for buyers and sellers navigating one of the tightest housing markets in years. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes increased 2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units. That figure also marked a 0.8% gain compared with July 2024, defying expectations of a modest decline.

The pickup in activity reflects contracts that were signed earlier in the summer, when mortgage rates began to edge down from their spring highs. The average 30-year fixed mortgage briefly exceeded 7% in May but had retreated to around 6.67% by the end of June. That shift helped unlock demand from buyers who had been sidelined by affordability challenges.

At the same time, supply conditions continued to improve. The number of homes available for sale at the end of July climbed to 1.55 million, up nearly 16% from a year ago. That level represents a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since May 2020 but still short of the six-month threshold considered a balanced market. For prospective buyers, the increase in inventory has translated into more choice and slightly less upward pressure on prices.

Even so, home values remain stubbornly high. The median price of an existing home sold in July reached $422,400, a record for the month and 0.2% higher than a year earlier. That marked the 25th consecutive month of annual price gains, underscoring how persistent demand and limited long-term supply continue to shape the market. Still, with wage growth now outpacing home price appreciation in some regions, economists suggest the market could be approaching an inflection point where affordability begins to improve.

Regional and price-segment dynamics reveal additional shifts. Sales activity has been strongest at the higher end of the market, with transactions on homes priced above $1 million jumping more than 7% from a year ago. In contrast, sales of properties priced below $250,000 remained flat or declined, squeezed by limited availability and still-elevated borrowing costs. In the South, where condominium prices have fallen over the past year, demand for that segment showed particular resilience.

Market behavior also reflects growing participation from investors and cash buyers. Investors accounted for 20% of transactions in July, up sharply from 13% a year earlier, likely taking advantage of the increased supply. Meanwhile, 31% of sales were completed with all cash, compared with 27% last July. That unusually high share suggests that wealth from equities and housing gains is playing a greater role in the market.

Homes are also taking longer to sell. The typical property stayed on the market for 28 days in July, compared with 24 days a year ago. First-time buyers accounted for just 28% of sales, slipping from both June and the same month last year, reflecting the ongoing affordability strain at the entry level of the market.

Overall, July’s data points to a housing sector that is slowly recalibrating. Rising inventory and moderating mortgage rates are offering incremental relief, yet prices remain elevated, and demand is concentrated in higher price tiers. Whether the market has reached a true turning point may depend on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates and how quickly supply can return to more balanced levels.

Strong September Corporate Bond Issuance Expected Despite Rate Cut Uncertainty

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. corporate bond market is gearing up for a strong September, with investment-grade issuance expected to remain one of the highest of the year. Market strategists and bankers anticipate that companies will proceed with large volumes of bond sales despite a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Historically, September has been one of the busiest months for investment-grade corporate bond activity, averaging around $140 billion in new deals. Last year set a record, surpassing $172 billion, as companies took advantage of robust investor demand for higher-yielding assets. This year’s issuance is projected to be similarly active, driven primarily by corporate financing needs rather than short-term changes in interest rate forecasts.

Recent economic data has tempered expectations for a substantial Fed rate cut in the near term. Producer price growth accelerated, while consumer price increases aligned with forecasts, suggesting inflation remains stubborn. As a result, markets now anticipate smaller or delayed rate adjustments compared to earlier projections.

Despite the evolving interest rate outlook, corporate treasurers are unlikely to postpone planned September bond offerings. Issuance decisions are typically based on long-term funding strategies and capital requirements, not on the immediate direction of monetary policy. Analysts note that minor movements in yields or credit spreads rarely deter companies from moving forward during this historically active month.

Corporate credit spreads—the additional yield investors demand over U.S. Treasuries—have experienced only modest changes in recent weeks. On average, spreads tightened by about one basis point, leaving them close to multi-decade lows. Bond yields remain below January levels, maintaining favorable financing conditions for issuers.

Industry experts expect that the two weeks leading up to Labor Day will be relatively quiet, as is common, but issuance is likely to accelerate sharply in September. With annual investment-grade supply in the U.S. often approaching $1.5 trillion, market participants anticipate continued heavy calendars in late summer and early fall.

The upcoming wave of bond sales will also be influenced by broader market dynamics, including investor appetite for corporate debt and the ongoing search for yield in a still-uncertain interest rate environment. Many institutional investors view investment-grade corporate bonds as an attractive balance between risk and return, especially when economic data signals resilience in corporate earnings and credit quality.

Overall, the combination of strong historical precedent, stable credit conditions, and ongoing financing needs suggests that September will remain a peak month for U.S. corporate bond issuance. Whether or not the Fed adjusts rates in the near term, companies are expected to press forward, ensuring the corporate bond market stays active as the year heads into its final quarter.

Producer Prices Jump Most in 3 Years: Complicates Fed’s Rate Cut Timeline

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve’s carefully orchestrated path toward interest rate cuts hit an unexpected roadblock Thursday as producer price data revealed the most significant inflationary surge in over three years, casting doubt on the central bank’s timeline for monetary easing.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9% in July, dramatically exceeding economists’ expectations of just 0.2% and marking the sharpest monthly increase since early 2022. This surge pushed annual producer inflation to 3.3%, the highest level since February and a stark reminder that the battle against rising prices remains far from over.

More concerning for policymakers was the performance of core producer prices, which strip out volatile food and energy costs to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. These prices rose 0.6% monthly, representing the largest increase since March 2022 and a significant acceleration from June’s flat reading. The annual core rate also hit 3.3%, matching February’s peak.

The timing of this inflation shock couldn’t be more problematic for the Federal Reserve. Just days after consumer price data showed inflation pressures remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, producer prices have delivered another unwelcome surprise. Markets, which had priced in a virtual certainty of rate cuts beginning in September, are now recalibrating their expectations.

This producer price acceleration tells a troubling story about cost pressures flowing through the economy. Unlike consumer prices, which measure what households pay, producer prices capture the costs businesses face when purchasing goods and services. When these prices rise rapidly, companies face a critical decision: absorb the higher costs and accept reduced profit margins, or pass them along to consumers through higher retail prices.

Recent evidence suggests businesses are increasingly choosing the latter option. Economists point to growing margin pressures from tariffs on imported goods as a key driver behind this trend. Analysis from Nationwide indicates that while companies initially absorbed most tariff-related cost increases, margins are becoming increasingly strained by higher costs for imported goods, leading to expectations of stronger price pass-through to consumers in coming months.

The mechanics behind July’s surge reveal interesting dynamics within the economy. Analysis from Capital Economics highlighted an unusual increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers, suggesting that some of the price increases reflect strategic business decisions rather than pure cost pressures. This margin expansion indicates companies may be regaining pricing power after years of competitive pressure.

Financial markets reacted swiftly to the news, with stock indices declining as investors grappled with the implications for Federal Reserve policy. The probability of a September rate cut, which stood at 100% just Wednesday, dropped to approximately 95% following the release, while expectations for a larger 0.5% cut nearly evaporated entirely.

The producer price shock arrives at a particularly sensitive moment for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to address the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22. This highly anticipated speech was expected to lay the groundwork for the Fed’s transition from restrictive monetary policy to a more accommodative stance. However, the recent inflation data complicates that narrative considerably.

For consumers already feeling the squeeze from elevated prices, the producer price surge offers little comfort. With businesses facing higher input costs and showing increased willingness to pass these expenses along, household budgets may face additional pressure in the months ahead. The disconnect between the Fed’s 2% inflation target and current price trends suggests that relief for American families remains elusive.

The path forward for monetary policy now appears more uncertain than at any point in recent months. While labor market softening and economic growth concerns continue to build the case for rate cuts, persistent inflation pressures argue for maintaining restrictive policies longer. Powell and his colleagues face the challenging task of balancing these competing forces while maintaining credibility in their inflation-fighting mission.

As markets await Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, one thing has become clear: the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions will require careful calibration as conflicting economic signals continue to complicate the monetary policy landscape.

July CPI Report Keeps Fed in Tight Spot as Rate-Cut Debate Heats Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

A fresh reading on inflation in July has left the Federal Reserve facing a difficult policy choice: act quickly to support a cooling labor market or hold steady to ensure inflation returns to target. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out food and energy, rose 3.1% year over year in July — above economists’ 3.0% forecast and up from 2.9% in June. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased 0.3%, matching expectations. Headline CPI rose 2.7% year over year, a touch below the 2.8% consensus.

The mixed picture — a slightly softer headline print but hotter core inflation — complicates the Fed’s September decision. Markets, however, have already swung toward loosening: futures traders are pricing in roughly a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September. That reflects growing concern about recent labor-market weakness and the potential political impetus for easing.

Employment data released earlier this month deepened that concern. The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and May and June payrolls were revised sharply lower by a combined 258,000. The three-month average for job growth is now about 35,000 — a pace many economists view as consistent with a significant cooling in hiring. Those revisions have amplified calls from some quarters of the Fed to move sooner on rate cuts to cushion the labor market.

At the same time, services inflation, the historically stickier component of the CPI, moved higher in July after moderating earlier in the year. Certain goods categories such as furniture and footwear also showed renewed upward pressure. Because core CPI and core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) tend to move together, the stronger core CPI reading raises the risk that core PCE will also show another above-target reading in coming reports, analysts say.

Policy makers at the Fed remain divided. Several regional presidents and officials have emphasized caution, arguing that elevated inflation — still more than a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% goal on a core basis — counsels patience. Others have pointed to the softening employment trend as a compelling reason to begin easing policy soon. That split was evident in recent public remarks from Fed officials, who ranged from urging a patient approach to signaling readiness to cut if labor-market deterioration continues.

The White House has also weighed in, increasing political pressure on the Fed to move. That intervention adds another dimension to an already fraught decision, though policymakers stress their commitment to independence and data-driven decisions.

Looking ahead, the Fed will watch August inflation components closely along with incoming employment and consumer spending data. If services inflation continues to run hot, the case for holding rates rises; if job growth further weakens and labor-market indicators soften, arguments for a September cut will strengthen.

For now, the July CPI leaves the Fed between two difficult paths: risk undermining the inflation fight by cutting too soon, or risk further labor-market deterioration by waiting. The choice in September will hinge on the next tranche of inflation and jobs data — and on how policymakers weigh those competing risks.

Who Could Lead the Fed Next? Waller’s Name Rises to the Top

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is gaining traction as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair under a potential second Trump administration, according to individuals familiar with the ongoing discussions. The Trump team reportedly favors Waller’s approach to monetary policy, highlighting his emphasis on forward-looking analysis and his institutional understanding of the Federal Reserve system.

Though Waller has not yet met with former President Trump personally, he has held discussions with members of Trump’s economic circle. His recent dissent from the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to hold interest rates steady has further elevated his profile. Waller, along with fellow Trump appointee Michelle Bowman, supported a rate cut in light of softening labor market data—a move that aligned with Trump’s long-standing desire for looser monetary policy.

Waller’s background adds weight to his candidacy. Before joining the Fed board in 2020, he was executive vice president and director of research at the St. Louis Fed. His nomination was narrowly confirmed by the Senate with a 48-47 vote. Since then, he has become a vocal figure within the central bank, notably clashing with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers in 2022 over inflation forecasts. Waller’s stance—that the Fed could rein in post-pandemic inflation without triggering a sharp rise in unemployment—ultimately proved accurate, strengthening his reputation among economic conservatives.

Trump’s shortlist includes former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Both men have also reportedly impressed Trump and his advisers, though Waller is viewed as the front-runner at this stage. Trump has confirmed that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are leading the search process.

The Trump team is also preparing to fill a vacant Fed board seat following the early departure of Governor Adriana Kugler. Trump has stated that this position will be temporarily filled, with a longer-term appointment expected in early 2026. That nominee is likely to favor lower interest rates—mirroring Trump’s preference for a more accommodative Fed.

Waller’s policy stance represents a clear contrast to Powell’s patient approach to rate changes. While Powell has pointed to a still-solid labor market and the need to assess the economic impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs, Waller has pushed for preemptive rate cuts, citing signs of cooling job growth. That divide has created friction between Powell and the Trump administration, with the former president repeatedly criticizing Powell for not acting aggressively enough.

Despite speculation, Waller has publicly maintained that he has not yet been approached by Trump. Speaking in July, he said, “If the president contacted me and said, ‘I want you to serve,’ I would do it,” but confirmed no such outreach had occurred.

Waller has also made clear his support for the Fed’s independence, calling it essential for economic stability. His willingness to accept criticism—whether from markets, politicians, or the public—adds to his appeal as a pragmatic and disciplined candidate for the role.

Global M&A Hits $2.6 Trillion in 2025, Fueled by AI and Growth Ambitions

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Global M&A value reaches $2.6 trillion YTD, the highest since the 2021 post-pandemic surge.
– AI, big tech, and private equity lead activity despite fewer total deals and tariff tensions.
– U.S. megadeals and renewed corporate confidence drive optimism for more deals ahead.

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity has surged to $2.6 trillion year-to-date, making 2025 the most active year since the 2021 boom, as companies aggressively pursue growth and innovation—particularly in artificial intelligence. The total value of deals has risen 28% from the same period last year, even though the actual number of transactions is down 16%, according to data from Dealogic.

Several U.S. megadeals have fueled the resurgence, including Union Pacific’s proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern and OpenAI’s massive $40 billion funding round led by Japan’s SoftBank. These transactions signal a bold appetite for scale and future-proofing in the face of evolving technologies and regulatory dynamics.

What’s driving this momentum? Experts say companies are seeking to stay ahead in a transformative AI race, while adapting to a more settled political and regulatory environment following the initial uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration’s trade tariffs and antitrust posture.

Private equity has also re-entered the scene with major moves. Examples include Sycamore Partners’ $10 billion buyout of Walgreens Boots Alliance and Advent’s revised $6.4 billion bid for UK firm Spectris. These moves show that buyout firms are growing confident in valuations and exit opportunities once again.

While healthcare led the charge in previous years, technology and electronics are now driving deal volume, especially in the U.S. and UK. Notable moves include Samsung’s $1.7 billion acquisition of FlaktGroup, which specializes in data center cooling—an essential infrastructure for AI systems.

The largest deal in EMEA this year came from Palo Alto Networks, which acquired Israeli cybersecurity company CyberArk for $25 billion. Rising AI-driven threats have made cybersecurity a top priority, prompting record valuations in the space.

Looking ahead, dealmakers at JPMorgan and other institutions remain bullish. The combination of AI demand, digital infrastructure needs, and steady leadership in corporate boardrooms suggests that the second half of 2025 could see even more high-profile M&A activity.

For further insights on cross-border opportunities, especially for European healthcare and life sciences firms, explore our on-demand webinar: Beyond Borders: Unlocking U.S Growth for European Health Care & Life Sciences.

U.S. Economy Adds Fewer Jobs Than Expected

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. labor market showed troubling signs of weakness in July, with only 73,000 jobs added—well below expectations and compounded by sharp downward revisions to prior months. May and June figures were slashed by a combined 258,000 jobs, revealing that the job market’s slowdown is more severe than initially reported.

Unemployment edged up to 4.2%, while the broader underemployment rate hit 7.9%, its highest level since March. Particularly alarming was a decline of 260,000 workers in the household survey, alongside a dip in labor force participation to 62.2%.

The July job gains were narrowly concentrated. Health care and social assistance accounted for 94% of the growth, adding 55,000 and 18,000 jobs respectively. Other sectors like retail and finance contributed modestly, while federal government jobs declined by 12,000—partly due to ongoing cuts under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Business and professional services also saw a 14,000 job loss.

Wages grew at a moderate pace, up 0.3% for the month and 3.9% over the year, matching expectations. But the rise in long-term unemployment—now averaging 24.1 weeks—signals growing distress for job seekers.

Markets reacted swiftly: stock futures dropped and Treasury yields tumbled as investors priced in a higher chance of rate cuts. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September meeting jumped to over 75%, from just 40% the day before.

President Donald Trump, already frustrated with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, doubled down on his criticism. In an inflammatory Truth Social post, he called Powell a “stubborn MORON” and demanded immediate and aggressive rate cuts, even suggesting the Federal Open Market Committee override Powell’s leadership.

Despite Trump’s pressure, the Fed opted to hold rates steady in July. The latest jobs report may force reconsideration. Economists warn that companies are becoming more hesitant to hire due to higher costs, weak consumer demand, and lingering uncertainty from trade policy and tariffs.

While GDP growth posted a strong 3% in Q2, that number may be misleading. Analysts note that the figure was inflated by businesses stockpiling imports before Trump’s latest tariffs took effect in April, with underlying demand remaining weak.

As the labor market cools and political pressure mounts, the September Fed meeting could prove pivotal—not just for monetary policy, but for the broader economic trajectory heading into 2026.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs After Strong GDP Data as Fed Decision Looms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected economic growth reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate stance, even amid growing political pressure and global market sensitivities.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.368%, reflecting rising investor confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy. The 2-year and 30-year yields also increased, closing at 3.904% and 4.904%, respectively. The moves followed a sharp rebound in second-quarter GDP, which showed the economy growing at an annualized rate of 3% — well above forecasts and reversing a 0.5% decline from the first quarter.

This robust data supports the case for keeping rates steady, at least in the near term, as the Federal Reserve continues to weigh inflation trends, labor market resilience, and long-term growth prospects. The Fed is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5% during today’s announcement, but all eyes are on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for insight into what comes next.

Adding complexity to the current environment is an ongoing effort by former President Donald Trump to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates. Trump has criticized Powell’s leadership and floated the idea of replacing him in a potential second term. Despite this political noise, bond markets appear to be looking past the rhetoric, focusing instead on macroeconomic fundamentals. The continued rise in the 10-year yield suggests investors believe any leadership changes at the Fed would have little immediate impact on market direction.

Moreover, foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries could react to political instability or aggressive fiscal policy by offloading U.S. debt. This would push yields even higher, particularly if confidence in long-term economic or monetary policy erodes. The bond market’s sensitivity to global sentiment means that political pressure campaigns are unlikely to meaningfully influence interest rates without broader structural changes.

Adding further pressure is the threat of new tariffs, a cornerstone of Trump’s proposed economic agenda. Tariffs on imported goods would likely raise costs across the board, fueling inflation and reducing purchasing power domestically. As the U.S. imports many essential goods, any significant tariffs would shift costs onto consumers and businesses. This could complicate the Fed’s effort to keep core inflation within its 2% to 2.5% target range and delay any potential interest rate cuts.

For now, financial markets are signaling confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage the current environment, even if political rhetoric intensifies. Investors appear to be aligning their expectations with strong economic indicators and current inflation data rather than political speculation.

As the Federal Reserve’s decision looms, the upward movement in Treasury yields reflects not just optimism about U.S. growth, but also a more complex web of factors — from global capital flows and inflation expectations to political interference and international trade risks. The road ahead for monetary policy remains uncertain, but the market’s message is clear: economic fundamentals, not politics, will drive yields.

Hiring Hits 7-Month Low as Fed Eyes Soft Landing

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Job openings and hiring rates declined in June, pointing to a cooling labor market.
– Slower labor momentum may support interest rate cuts, benefiting small-cap stocks.
– Wage and recruitment pressure may ease for lean growth-stage companies.

U.S. job openings and hiring took a step back in June, signaling a potential shift in the labor market that middle-market investors should watch closely — not fear. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings slid to 7.44 million, while hiring dipped to 5.2 million, the lowest level seen since November 2024.

While the headlines suggest cooling momentum, the broader story may hold more nuanced opportunities, especially for investors focused on small and micro-cap companies. A slower labor market, in combination with steady inflation data, could strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to hold — or even cut — interest rates in the coming months. That shift would support capital access and investor appetite for growth-stage businesses that have been squeezed by tight monetary policy.

Though hiring dipped, layoffs remain notably low, and the quits rate — a proxy for worker confidence — held steady at 2%. Economists are describing this as a market in “stasis,” but for long-term investors, the pause could be a prelude to renewed acceleration.

For small-cap companies, especially those in labor-sensitive sectors like retail, logistics, and light manufacturing, a cooling hiring pace may relieve wage pressure and improve margins. It also puts less strain on recruitment, potentially helping leaner firms maintain productivity without costly hiring sprees.

Meanwhile, private sector ADP data revealed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June — the first negative reading since March 2023 — and consumer confidence continues to weaken. Yet, this cooling sentiment could signal that wage inflation, a concern for the Fed, is abating. Should that trend continue, it strengthens the case for interest rate cuts by year-end — a move that historically benefits risk assets and small-cap equities more than their large-cap peers.

This week’s data will culminate in Friday’s July jobs report, which economists expect to show 101,000 jobs added and a rise in unemployment to 4.2%. If confirmed, it could validate investor bets on a looser monetary stance and provide a tailwind for undervalued companies that have struggled under high-rate conditions.

For middle-market investors, this is a moment to dig deeper into companies with strong fundamentals but weakened valuations. Lower rates could reignite M&A activity and growth funding in the lower end of the public markets. And while the broader labor market narrative may appear sluggish, it’s precisely this cooling that could set the stage for a more accommodative environment in the quarters ahead.

Lawsuit Pressures Fed to Open Doors: Could Transparency Shift Market Dynamics?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Azoria Capital sues the Federal Reserve, demanding public access to FOMC meetings.
– The lawsuit challenges the Fed’s closed-door practices under a 1976 federal law.
– Rising political pressure may reshape how investors engage with monetary policy decisions.

In a dramatic turn that could upend decades of Federal Reserve protocol, asset manager Azoria Capital filed a lawsuit Thursday demanding the central bank’s monetary policy meetings be opened to the public. The suit, lodged in a Washington, D.C. federal court, accuses the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of violating a 1976 transparency law by continuing to hold closed-door deliberations.

The timing couldn’t be more critical. The FOMC is set to meet July 29–30, and Azoria is seeking a temporary restraining order that would force those discussions—typically among the most market-sensitive of any U.S. institution—into the public sphere.

Behind the suit is James Fishback, Azoria Capital’s CEO and a figure closely tied to the Trump administration. Fishback contends the FOMC’s secrecy isn’t just outdated—it’s damaging. “By operating beyond public scrutiny, the FOMC is deliberately undermining the accountability envisioned by Congress,” the lawsuit claims, adding that real-time access to Fed discussions would give investors critical tools to navigate volatility sparked by monetary shifts.

The move comes as President Trump, currently touring the Fed’s $2.5 billion refurbishment project in Washington, escalates his criticism of central bank leadership. Trump has long accused Chair Jerome Powell and other officials of keeping interest rates unnecessarily high—claims echoed in Azoria’s filing, which alleges the Fed’s policy stance is “politically motivated” and intended to sabotage the administration’s economic agenda.

While the Fed hasn’t raised rates during Trump’s term so far, it has also declined to cut them, preferring to take a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of new trade and fiscal policies. Yet that inaction has drawn ire from two sides—those demanding tighter control of inflation and those, like the administration, calling for looser credit to fuel growth.

Market reaction to the lawsuit has been cautious but curious. The idea of live-streamed or even partially open FOMC meetings could fundamentally alter the pace at which market participants digest rate signals. That shift could lead to sharper intraday volatility but also present opportunities for nimble traders and small-cap managers who thrive in environments of rapid change.

For investors in the middle market and beyond, the lawsuit underscores a growing theme: political and legal challenges are no longer background noise—they are becoming tradable events. Should Azoria’s case gain traction, it could pave the way for real-time transparency around monetary policy, potentially giving smaller firms an edge over traditional gatekeepers.

Whether or not the courts side with Azoria, the message is clear—investors are demanding a seat at the Fed’s table. And in a climate where every basis point counts, that demand might just get louder.

Could Capital Gains Tax Cuts on Home Sales Spark a Real Estate Revival for Small-Cap Investors?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Trump says his administration is exploring the removal of capital gains taxes on home sales.
– The move could unlock capital, boost housing turnover, and benefit housing-related sectors.
– Middle-market and small-cap real estate and home improvement firms could see upside from rising transaction activity.

In a surprising policy hint that could reshape the U.S. housing market, President Donald Trump said Tuesday his administration is “thinking about no tax on capital gains on houses.” The statement, delivered from the Oval Office, comes as part of a broader economic playbook aimed at fueling consumer momentum ahead of the 2026 election cycle.

Currently, profits from home sales are subject to capital gains taxes, though homeowners selling their primary residences can deduct up to $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (married) under existing law. Trump’s proposal — which aligns with a new bill introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — would eliminate capital gains tax altogether on home sales, potentially removing one of the biggest friction points in residential real estate.

For investors — particularly in the middle market and small-cap sectors — the implications could be significant.

Removing capital gains tax on homes could encourage long-time homeowners to sell, freeing up inventory in tight markets and fueling demand for adjacent sectors: real estate brokerages, mortgage services, homebuilders, renovation companies, and material suppliers. Small-cap firms in these industries, which have lagged amid high interest rates and a sluggish housing turnover rate, may find themselves back in favor.

The policy could also revive investor sentiment in the residential property space. With more liquidity available and tax incentives restored, buyers may re-enter the market more aggressively, especially if paired with a future Fed rate cut — something Trump alluded to when he said, “If the Fed would lower the rates, we wouldn’t even have to do that.”

From a strategic standpoint, eliminating taxes on home sales would shift housing from being just a lifestyle decision to a more liquid investment vehicle — benefiting not only homeowners but potentially boosting real estate stocks, REITs, and companies supporting the housing ecosystem.

Critics argue such a move could overheat the housing market or primarily benefit wealthier Americans. However, for investors with an eye on undervalued small-cap plays, this policy could be the catalyst that reopens stalled growth pipelines in sectors tied to home transactions — particularly construction, hardware, lending tech, and residential services.

It also ties into a broader trend: a return to asset-based investing over speculative tech — with hard assets like homes, precious metals, and infrastructure increasingly seen as reliable anchors during fiscal uncertainty.

While the proposal is far from finalized, the conversation alone signals that real estate is back on the national economic agenda — and may offer renewed upside for investors willing to look beyond the large caps.

Stocks Climb Toward Records as Retail Strength and Earnings Drive Optimism

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– S&P 500 and Nasdaq near record highs as strong June retail sales and jobless claims data signal economic resilience.
– Tech sector leads gains, boosted by TSMC’s record earnings and rising AI-related demand.
– Investors look past political noise, focusing instead on steady consumer activity and strong corporate performance.

U.S. stock markets continued their upward momentum on Thursday, with major indexes climbing toward record highs as upbeat economic data and solid corporate earnings supported investor sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were both on track to close at fresh all-time highs, bolstered by renewed strength in technology stocks and encouraging signals from consumers and the labor market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted modest gains, contributing to a broadly positive tone across equities.

Retail sales rose in June, easing concerns that recently imposed tariffs by President Donald Trump would dampen consumer spending. The rebound in sales provided reassurance that household demand remains resilient, even amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. The data served as a key indicator of economic stability, reinforcing the notion that U.S. consumers—who drive a significant portion of economic activity—remain active despite geopolitical and financial headwinds.

At the same time, the Department of Labor reported that weekly jobless claims fell to 221,000 in the week ending July 12, the lowest in three months. After an uptick in claims earlier this spring, the recent decline suggests that the labor market remains relatively strong. The drop in new unemployment filings adds to growing optimism that the broader economy is on stable footing heading into the second half of the year.

Corporate earnings also played a major role in Thursday’s market momentum. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a key supplier to Nvidia and other major chipmakers, posted record quarterly profits, citing strong demand for artificial intelligence-related components. The announcement sent TSMC shares higher and sparked a rally among semiconductor stocks, further fueling the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s gains. Meanwhile, PepsiCo surprised investors with a revenue beat and revised its 2025 profit forecast to a smaller decline, suggesting stronger-than-expected consumer demand in the beverage and snack sectors.

Attention also turned to Netflix, which was scheduled to report earnings after the market close. As the first of the Big Tech companies to release quarterly results this season, the streaming giant’s performance is seen as a bellwether for investor expectations in the sector. Netflix shares have been on a strong run in 2025, reflecting optimism about its growth trajectory and content strategy.

In the background, political developments in Washington continued to simmer, with President Trump’s criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drawing attention. While Trump said he had no current plans to remove Powell, his public comments have reignited speculation about potential interference with central bank policy. However, markets appeared to shrug off the rhetoric for now, focusing instead on tangible economic and earnings data.

Looking ahead, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting in two weeks. Market expectations overwhelmingly point to no change in interest rates, as inflation data remains mixed and the Fed stays cautious. For the moment, the combination of strong consumer data, robust earnings, and a relatively stable economic outlook appears to be outweighing political noise, helping stocks push further into record territory.

Inflation Ticks Up in June as Tariffs and Essentials Drive Prices Higher

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. consumers felt a noticeable pinch in June as inflation climbed to 2.7% annually, up from 2.4% in May. With global trade tensions escalating and new tariffs on imports taking effect, everyday essentials like food, healthcare, and shelter are becoming more expensive—leaving many Americans bracing for what’s next.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released Tuesday, signals that inflationary pressures remain persistent despite previous signs of cooling. While prices for airfare and automobiles—both new and used—eased slightly, other critical categories saw continued increases.

One key concern behind June’s uptick: the return of global trade tariffs. Analysts point to rising prices in categories that are closely tied to international trade, such as furniture, appliances, and clothing. Household furnishings, for example, jumped 1% in June—the sharpest increase since early 2022—suggesting that tariffs are starting to filter through to consumer prices.

Recreation and apparel costs also edged higher, adding to speculation that the economic fallout from tariffs may only be getting started.

Food inflation continues to strain household budgets. Grocery prices rose another 0.3% in June, matching May’s increase and marking a 2.4% year-over-year rise. Meat prices, particularly beef, have remained stubbornly high. Ground beef now averages $6.10 per pound—nearly 10% more than this time last year. Steak prices soared even higher, with a 12.4% annual jump.

While egg prices have finally begun to fall—dropping 7.4% from May—their average price of $3.78 per dozen remains significantly higher than the $2.72 average just a year ago. Eating out also became more expensive, with restaurant prices climbing 0.4% in June and up 3.8% year-over-year.

Healthcare costs continue to rise at a steady pace. Medical services were up 0.6% from May and 3.4% from a year ago. Hospital services and nursing home care saw even larger increases, at 4.2% and 5.1% respectively. Health insurance premiums also edged higher, up 3.4% from last year.

Shelter costs—typically the largest portion of household expenses—rose another 0.2% last month and are now 3.8% higher than June 2024. However, increased apartment construction and cooling home prices may offer a slight reprieve in coming months.

There was at least one bright spot for consumers: gasoline. Prices at the pump rose 1% in June but remain 8.3% lower than a year ago. AAA reports a national average of $3.15 per gallon, down from $3.52 last summer.

Used car prices dipped 0.7% monthly, and new vehicle prices fell 0.3%—further signaling stabilization after pandemic-era surges.

With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, economists expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. The hotter-than-expected June data may also delay hopes for a rate cut in September.

For now, households are being forced to navigate a landscape where necessities cost more and relief remains limited—especially if tariffs continue to ripple through the economy.