Category: Basic Materials

Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Establishing a Toehold in Critical Metals

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Potential critical metals recovery project. Aurania Resources Ltd. executed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Society for the Remediation and Environmental Development of the former Balangero asbestos mine, otherwise known as RSA, and Firestone Ventures Inc. Dr. Keith Barron, Aurania’s Chief Executive Officer and director, is the President and Director of Firestone. The MOU allows for data collection and sampling of tailings at the former Balangero mine, which operated from 1916 to 1990, and is near Turin, Italy. Aurania will evaluate the tailings to recover nickel and cobalt, two critical metals for electric battery production.

Pathway to a commercial agreement. The MOU has a one-year term, and if results prove favorable, the parties are expected to enter into a commercial agreement to extract metals from the waste piles. Firestone would then conduct carbon capture on the waste stream, using industrial carbon dioxide to neutralize the contained asbestos and convert it into a useful form of carbon. Aurania and Firestone have exclusive access to the site for this evaluation.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF) – Angel Island’s Commercial Appeal Grows with Lithium Hydroxide Production

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Century produces high-purity lithium hydroxide. Century Lithium produced its first samples of lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate derived from Angel Island’s lithium claystone deposit and treated at its demonstration plant using the company’s patent-pending alkaline leach and direct lithium extraction (DLE) process. Century had previously focused on making lithium carbonate. By producing high-purity lithium hydroxide, Century has demonstrated an ability to produce another major lithium product for the domestic market.

Pursuing a direct lithium conversion process. Lithium hydroxide samples were produced onsite in a batch process using conventional liming conversion with calcium hydroxide to produce lithium hydroxide with a purity level of 99.5% or greater. Century is pursuing a direct lithium conversion (DLC) process to produce lithium hydroxide directly from lithium chloride solution, which would bypass producing lithium carbonate in an intermediate stage to simplify the process and reduce energy consumption and operating costs.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

U.S. and Australia Seal $8.5B Critical Minerals Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a move with broad implications for the future of global supply chains and the defence technology sector, President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have signed a new agreement on critical minerals. This collaboration was unveiled at the White House on October 20, 2025, and establishes a formal partnership with a project pipeline that could reach $8.5 billion.​

Though the White House described the agreement as a framework, officials in both countries confirmed immediate capital is forthcoming for key initiatives. Over the next six months alone, the agreement will facilitate joint investments of more than $3 billion, with Australia and the U.S. directly contributing at least $1 billion in the near term. Much of this funding will be deployed into advanced processing and mining projects focused on rare earths and other critical minerals essential for high-tech manufacturing and defence, including electric vehicles, robotics, and semiconductors.​

The U.S. Export-Import Bank is prepared to offer at least $2.2 billion in letters of interest for project loans, which could unlock up to $5 billion in further investment. Alcoa and other major industrial players are already involved, with a particular emphasis on new rare earths separation facilities and a gallium refinery in Western Australia. The Pentagon is backing the gallium project, targeting a refinery output of 100 metric tons annually, a move that will significantly enhance non-Chinese supply for this vital semiconductor and electronics material.​

This agreement comes as the global race to secure critical minerals intensifies. China continues to dominate rare earth processing and recently implemented strict export controls, escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and its allies. The new U.S.–Australia framework marks a decisive shift away from Chinese supply chain dependence and signals a new era of industrial cooperation between Western allies.

The market outlook is robust: rare earths and related minerals are used in everything from precision-guided missile systems to wind turbines and next-generation batteries. With rising geopolitical risk and acute supply chain vulnerabilities exposed, government-backed efforts like this one are set to redefine project financing and resource development models. The pipeline also includes a three-country venture involving the U.S., Australia, and Japan, integrating expertise and industrial capacity across the Pacific.​

From the investor’s perspective, the partnership is about more than near-term capital flows. It reflects a “friend-shoring” philosophy, rerouting core inputs for modern industrial economies through trusted democratic partners. This is expected to benefit not only major participants like Alcoa but also small and micro-cap mining companies able to secure public or strategic backing for projects in Australia and allied regions. With the right execution, these upstream investments could set the stage for renewed growth and improved supply security throughout the clean energy and technology sectors

Rayonier and PotlatchDeltic Announce $8.2 Billion Merger to Create Timber Products Powerhouse

Posted on by cpatches

Deal to Form Second-Largest U.S. Public Timber and Wood Company Amid Tariff Tailwinds and Industry Consolidation

Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN) and PotlatchDeltic Corporation (Nasdaq: PCH) announced they have entered into a definitive all-stock merger of equals valued at approximately $8.2 billion, including $1.1 billion of net debt. The combined company will become the second-largest publicly traded timber and wood products enterprise in the United States, with roughly 4.2 million acres of timberland across 11 states and significant manufacturing and real estate operations.

Under the terms of the agreement, PotlatchDeltic shareholders will receive 1.7339 shares of Rayonier common stock for each PotlatchDeltic share — an implied value of $44.11 per share and an 8.25% premium to PotlatchDeltic’s October 10 closing price. Rayonier shareholders will own approximately 54% of the combined company, while PotlatchDeltic investors will hold 46%. The merger, unanimously approved by both boards, is expected to close in late Q1 or early Q2 2026.

The announcement coincided with the Trump administration’s implementation of 10% tariffs on imported timber and lumber — a policy shift expected to benefit U.S. producers. The companies cited improving long-term demand for housing and construction materials, despite recent headwinds from elevated mortgage rates and weaker housing activity.

“Combining two exceptional land resources companies creates enhanced value for our shareholders and other stakeholders,” said Mark McHugh, President and CEO of Rayonier, who will continue in that role post-merger. “Rayonier and PotlatchDeltic share a commitment to sustainability and a legacy of excellence in delivering land resources to their highest and best use.”

Eric Cremers, President and CEO of PotlatchDeltic, added, “This merger is a watershed moment for both companies. Our complementary assets and shared vision will unlock opportunities to create significant strategic and financial benefits beyond what either could achieve independently.”

The combined company will operate under a new name to be announced prior to closing. It will have an estimated pro forma equity market capitalization of $7.1 billion and be positioned to capitalize on multiple growth avenues — from timber harvesting and lumber manufacturing to higher-and-better-use (HBU) real estate development and natural climate solutions.

Operationally, the merger brings together approximately 3.2 million acres of timberland in the U.S. South and 931,000 acres in the Pacific Northwest. The company will operate seven wood products facilities, including six lumber mills with annual capacity of 1.2 billion board feet and one plywood mill producing 150 million square feet. It also expects to realize $40 million in annual run-rate synergies within two years of closing, driven by overhead and operational efficiencies.

In addition to its timber and manufacturing assets, the combined company will have an established real estate development platform with ongoing projects in Arkansas, Florida, and Georgia. Both firms highlighted strong prospects in land-based and natural climate solutions, including solar, carbon capture, and voluntary carbon markets.

Financially, the new company will have a pro forma net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 2.5x and maintain investment-grade credit ratings. It plans to sustain regular dividend payments through completion of the merger and target long-term dividend growth as synergies are realized.

Upon closing, the leadership team will draw from both organizations. McHugh will serve as President and CEO, with Wayne Wasechek (PotlatchDeltic) as CFO, Rhett Rogers (Rayonier) as EVP of Land Resources, and Ashlee Cribb (PotlatchDeltic) as EVP of Wood Products. Cremers will become Executive Chair of the Board for 24 months following the merger, with board representation split evenly between both companies.

Silver Breaks $50: Precious Metal Hits Four-Decade High as Investors Flock to Safe Havens

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Silver has shattered a historic milestone, climbing past $50 per ounce for the first time since 1980 — marking one of the most significant rallies in the metals market in over forty years. The surge, up roughly 75% year-to-date, underscores a powerful combination of investor demand, industrial consumption, and persistent supply shortages.

While gold has dominated headlines with its record-breaking ascent above $4,000 per ounce, silver’s breakout is capturing equal attention. Often referred to as “gold’s more affordable cousin,” silver is benefiting from the same wave of safe-haven buying driven by global economic uncertainty, political instability, and weakening confidence in traditional fiat currencies.

This rally isn’t just about market sentiment. Silver’s unique dual identity — as both an investment asset and a critical industrial material — has amplified its momentum. The metal is an essential component in solar panels, electric vehicles, data centers, and smartphone manufacturing, making it a cornerstone of the modern green and tech economies.

“Silver’s industrial demand is skyrocketing, particularly with the ongoing boom in renewable energy and semiconductor expansion,” noted market strategists. “This growing utility, combined with investors seeking protection against inflation and currency risk, is creating a perfect storm for price growth.”

According to analysts, 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit in the silver market. Sluggish mining output and limited new production are struggling to keep pace with global demand, further tightening supply. Many traders believe this imbalance could sustain elevated prices well into 2026.

Silver’s rally closely mirrors gold’s performance, but it’s also outpacing it in percentage terms. While gold has climbed around 51% this year, silver’s 75% surge and platinum’s 80% gain highlight the broad strength of the precious metals sector. The upward trend is being fueled by concerns about inflation, tariffs, central bank policy independence, and rising national debt levels.

At the institutional level, hedge funds and asset managers are rotating capital into tangible assets like precious metals and Bitcoin as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to silver — particularly the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) — have seen record inflows not witnessed since 2020.

With demand surging and inventories thinning, analysts suggest silver may be entering a sustained breakout phase rather than a short-term spike. For retail and small-cap investors alike, the current rally presents both opportunity and volatility — hallmarks of a market on the move.

Gold Keeps Breaking Records as Global Demand Surges

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold prices have shattered records yet again, surging past $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history as investors continue to flock to the safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty and expectations of deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yellow metal’s meteoric rise marks one of the strongest rallies in decades, gaining more than 50% year-to-date — its best annual performance since 1979.

According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their largest quarterly inflows on record, with investors pouring in more than $26 billion during the third quarter of 2025. North American funds led the surge, followed by European and Asian markets, as geopolitical tensions, volatile currencies, and concerns over central bank policy fueled the rush into gold.

Analysts noted that a combination of economic uncertainty, political instability, and weakening confidence in traditional currencies has been fueling record levels of investment in gold. They suggested that even modest shifts of capital away from the bond market toward gold could be enough to push prices significantly higher.

Gold’s recent rally has been closely tied to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates to support the slowing economy. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to both institutional and retail investors.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened, further boosting gold’s appeal. As the greenback loses strength, international buyers gain more purchasing power, often resulting in increased gold demand.

The gold market’s explosive momentum has also led to a surge in trading activity. Average daily trading volumes climbed 34% month over month, hitting all-time highs as prices broke new records 13 times in September alone.

Wall Street remains bullish. Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed gold as its “highest-conviction long recommendation,” forecasting that continued monetary easing and persistent global tensions could keep driving the metal upward.

Analysts predicts that gold could reach $4,500 by mid-2026, with a potential breakout toward $5,000 per ounce if capital continues to rotate out of government bonds and into precious metals.

As global markets navigate uncertainty — from geopolitical flashpoints to currency instability — gold’s appeal as a safe, tangible store of value remains as strong as ever. For now, the metal’s relentless climb shows no signs of slowing.

Critical Minerals Take Center Stage as U.S. Accelerates Domestic Mining Investments

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Trilogy Metals’ stock has skyrocketed following news that the Trump administration has taken a 10% stake in the company and approved a long-debated access road to Alaska’s Ambler Mining District. The move marks a major step in the administration’s ongoing push to strengthen the U.S. supply chain for critical minerals and metals—resources essential to clean energy, defense, and technology production.

Shares of Trilogy Metals surged more than 200% after reports confirmed that the administration invested roughly $35.6 million for the initial stake, with options to expand its position further. The approval of the Ambler Access Project is equally significant, as it clears the way for road construction to one of Alaska’s most mineral-rich areas, known to contain large deposits of copper, cobalt, silver, and other valuable metals.

The Ambler project, previously blocked due to environmental and tribal concerns, now represents one of the most promising developments in North American mining infrastructure. The administration justified the decision on the basis of national interest, emphasizing the need for reliable access to domestic sources of critical materials. To address environmental worries, the plan reportedly includes measures to protect local wildlife and mitigate ecological disruption.

This latest investment is part of a broader strategy that has seen the administration take direct stakes in several companies tied to the U.S. mineral supply chain. Earlier this year, similar investments were made in Lithium Americas and MP Materials—both key players in lithium and rare earth mining. These moves, combined with support for projects like Arizona’s Resolution copper mine and semiconductor manufacturing expansion, highlight a coordinated effort to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign suppliers, particularly China.

The ripple effects of these initiatives extend beyond the headline companies. Smaller-cap mining and exploration firms, many of which struggle to secure funding or regulatory approval, could see renewed investor interest as confidence builds in the sector. The U.S. government’s involvement signals a stronger commitment to domestic resource development, which could make financing and partnerships easier to obtain for junior mining companies.

Moreover, rising demand for materials like copper, cobalt, and lithium—driven by the energy transition, electric vehicles, and AI data centers—continues to push commodity prices higher. Smaller players positioned near viable deposits may become acquisition targets or strategic partners for larger corporations aiming to secure supply lines. As institutional investors seek exposure to the metals space, many could turn to small- and mid-cap miners as leveraged opportunities for growth.

However, this surge in optimism also brings potential volatility. Commodity-dependent small caps are notoriously cyclical, and their valuations can swing sharply with policy shifts, environmental challenges, or fluctuations in global metal prices. Still, the overarching narrative remains favorable: a renewed national focus on critical mineral independence, supported by both public and private capital, may ignite a renaissance in the U.S. mining and metals sector.

In the wake of Trilogy Metals’ dramatic rally, market watchers are increasingly eyeing other under-the-radar resource companies that could benefit from this wave of strategic investment. If current trends persist, the metals sector—long overshadowed by tech and energy—could become one of the most dynamic areas for small-cap growth over the next several years.

Gold Miners Outshine AI Stocks in 2025 With 135% Rally, Drawing Small-Cap Investor Interest

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold stocks have emerged as one of the most powerful performers in 2025, eclipsing the high-flying semiconductor sector and catching the attention of investors seeking value beyond artificial intelligence. While much of the market narrative this year has revolved around chipmakers riding the AI boom, gold miners have quietly delivered staggering gains — up more than 135% — and positioned themselves as an unexpected leader in global equities.

The rally has been fueled by multiple forces. Central banks have accelerated purchases of gold as part of a broader de-dollarization trend, while investors have sought safe-haven assets amid heightened economic uncertainty. Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds have further supported the surge. As a result, gold itself has climbed more than 45% this year, setting new all-time highs and marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.

This has translated into significant upside for miners. Global heavyweights such as Newmont Corp. and Agnico Eagle Mines have seen their shares more than double, while Zijin Mining has surged over 130% in Hong Kong. In London, Fresnillo Plc has nearly quadrupled, becoming the standout performer in the FTSE 100. Yet, the momentum is not limited to large caps. Smaller mining companies — particularly those with scalable production capacity and strong cost control — are increasingly attractive to investors looking for opportunities that combine growth with relative undervaluation.

One of the striking differences between gold equities and semiconductor stocks lies in valuations. The MSCI Gold Miners Index currently trades at around 13 times forward earnings, slightly below its five-year average, suggesting the rally is backed by fundamentals. In contrast, the semiconductor index trades near 29 times earnings, well above its historical trend. For small-cap investors, this dynamic suggests gold miners may still offer more sustainable upside, especially as earnings growth outpaces share price appreciation.

Beyond valuations, sector fundamentals point to further resilience. Elevated margins, robust cash flows, and disciplined capital management have allowed gold miners to reinvest in operations while returning capital to shareholders. The sector is benefiting from margin expansion as gold prices remain elevated, giving even mid-tier and junior miners the potential to outperform. For small-cap investors, this creates a unique entry point into a sector often overlooked during periods of tech dominance.

While enthusiasm around AI-driven chipmakers is unlikely to fade, the current cycle underscores the importance of diversification. Investors chasing technology gains may risk overlooking industries where fundamentals remain strong, valuations are reasonable, and long-term demand drivers are intact. The outperformance of gold miners in 2025 serves as a reminder that market leadership can emerge from unexpected places — and for small-cap investors willing to broaden their focus, the precious metals sector offers compelling opportunities.

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF) – Progress on the Permitting Front

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, October 02, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Moving through the permitting process. Century has completed all required environmental baseline studies to begin Angel Island’s National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) permitting process, which is expected to take up to two years before reaching a record of decision. The studies will be used by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to support the company’s upcoming Plan of Operations submission and subsequent NEPA analysis. 

FAST-41 designation. In August 2025, Angel Island was formally designated as a FAST-41 Transparency project under a federal initiative designed to improve the transparency, coordination, and timeliness of the federal environmental review and permitting process. The designation reflects Angel Island’s strategic importance in supporting the U.S. critical minerals supply chain. We think the Angel Island project is well-positioned for a timely progression through the permitting process.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – U.S. Coal as a Strategic and Competitive Advantage

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, September 30, 2025

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Investments to reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry.  The U.S. Department of Energy announced a $625 million program to expand and reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry. This includes $350 million to recommission or modernize coal power units, $175 million for coal power projects directly benefiting rural communities, $50 million to support advanced wastewater management systems to enable coal plants to extend their service life and reduce operational costs, $25 million for dual-firing retrofits, and $25 million for development and testing of natural gas cofiring systems.

Expanded coal leasing on federal lands. Moreover, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced it is making up to 13.1 million acres of federal land available for coal leasing and streamlining approvals for projects. The Department is accelerating efforts to fast-track projects that can recover strategic minerals from mine waste and abandoned sites. The One Big Beautiful Bill, passed on July 4, established lower coal leasing royalty rates of not more than 7% for both surface and underground mines for the period July 4, 2025, to September 30, 2034.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gold Hits Record High Above $3,800 as Dollar Weakens and US Shutdown Looms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold extended its powerful rally on Monday, breaking above $3,800 an ounce for the first time as a weaker dollar and growing political uncertainty in Washington sent investors rushing toward safe-haven assets. The move underscores gold’s role as one of the top-performing investments of 2025, with prices already soaring more than 45% year-to-date.

Spot gold climbed as much as 2% to $3,833.59 an ounce, eclipsing last week’s record and securing a seventh consecutive weekly advance. The broader precious metals complex followed suit, with silver, platinum, and palladium also notching sizable gains. Silver jumped to $46.87, its highest level since 2011, while platinum briefly traded above $1,600 for the first time in more than a decade.

The surge comes as investors brace for the possibility of a US government shutdown. Without a short-term spending deal, federal funding will lapse this week, stalling critical government services and delaying key economic data releases, including September’s jobs report. Such an outcome could inject fresh volatility into financial markets, intensifying demand for gold as a defensive asset.

At the same time, the dollar slipped against major peers, further fueling gold’s rise. A softer greenback typically makes precious metals more affordable for international buyers, expanding global demand. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% on Monday, extending recent weakness as traders weighed the implications of fiscal gridlock in Washington.

Beyond near-term political risks, gold continues to benefit from shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Weaker job growth or signs of cooling inflation could strengthen the case for another rate cut when the Fed meets in October. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making the metal more attractive to both institutional and retail investors.

Despite ongoing debate among Fed officials about the pace of easing, markets are increasingly betting on additional support. That prospect, coupled with concerns about the central bank’s independence amid political pressures, has encouraged investors to seek hedges in tangible assets such as gold.

This year’s rally has been reinforced by sustained demand from both central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gold-backed ETFs now hold their largest reserves since 2022, reflecting consistent inflows as investors look to diversify portfolios and guard against macroeconomic risks. Meanwhile, central banks across Asia and the Middle East have continued adding to their bullion reserves, contributing to persistent tightness in the physical market.

Silver, platinum, and palladium markets are also showing signs of strain. Analysts note that lease rates — the cost of borrowing metal — for these commodities have surged well above normal levels, signaling limited availability. Additional volatility may emerge as the US reviews potential tariffs on platinum-group metals, a move that could further squeeze supply.

With gold repeatedly setting new highs, questions are mounting about whether the rally is overextended. Yet many analysts argue bullion remains reasonably priced relative to the dollar and Treasury markets. As long as political risks remain elevated, the dollar stays under pressure, and the Fed leans toward easing, gold may continue to climb into uncharted territory.

For investors, the latest breakout reinforces gold’s dual role as both a crisis hedge and a long-term portfolio stabilizer. If Washington fails to reach a spending compromise, the metal’s safe-haven status could push prices toward fresh records before year-end.

Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Heightened Risk in Ecuador

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, September 26, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. As an exploration company, Aurania does not generate revenue and has expenses to advance its projects. During the second quarter of 2025, the company generated a net loss of C$1,610,843 or C$0.01 per share. We had projected a loss of C$1,432,419 or C$0.01 per share. The variance to our estimate was mostly due to higher exploration expenditures, along with higher stock-based compensation. We project a full-year 2025 net loss of C$11.1 million, or C$(0.10) per share, compared to our prior loss estimate of C$10.5 million, or C$(0.09) per share.

Mining service fee. Ecuador recently implemented a new mining service fee on the resource sector (refer to our note dated July 29, 2025). The Ecuadorian Control and Regulation Agency (ARCOM) requested payment from Aurania of US$2,012,618 by July 31, 2025, representing one month of the total annual fee of US$24,151,420. While the penalty for non-payment is unclear, we think Aurania is withholding payment until it becomes clear whether TASA will stand in its current form due to multiple constitutional challenges.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Lithium Americas Stock Nearly Doubles as U.S. Government Weighs Stake in Thacker Pass Mine

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shares of Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) soared nearly 100% on Wednesday after reports that the Trump administration is considering taking a stake in the company as part of a renegotiated federal loan package tied to the development of the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada.

According to Reuters, the administration is seeking as much as a 10% equity stake in the Vancouver-based miner. The proposed arrangement comes as Lithium Americas works through terms of a $2.26 billion loan from the Department of Energy, originally granted during the first Trump administration.

Under the current negotiations, the company has offered the government no-cost warrants for up to 10% of its common stock. At the same time, the administration is reportedly pressing General Motors (NYSE: GM) — which owns a 38% stake in Thacker Pass and has invested $625 million — for purchase guarantees that would help shore up demand for the lithium produced at the site. GM shares ticked higher by more than 2% on the news.

A Strategic Lithium Project

Thacker Pass is expected to play a central role in U.S. energy security. Once operational, the project is projected to be the largest lithium mining operation in the Western Hemisphere. Its first production phase, slated for 2028, is forecast to produce more than 40,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate annually — enough to power batteries for roughly 800,000 electric vehicles.

For perspective, Albemarle’s (NYSE: ALB) Silver Peak mine in Nevada, currently the only operating lithium mine in the U.S., produces fewer than 5,000 metric tons per year. This makes Thacker Pass a significant leap in domestic production capacity at a time when global demand for electric vehicles, battery storage, and clean energy technologies is surging.

China currently dominates the global lithium industry, producing more than 40,000 metric tons per year and refining more than 65% of the world’s supply. By comparison, the U.S. refines less than 3%. This imbalance has made lithium one of the most strategically sensitive commodities in the energy transition.

“Lithium is the new oil,” said one energy analyst, noting that securing supply has become a cornerstone of U.S. industrial policy. “Without it, you can’t scale EV adoption or battery storage, and that makes projects like Thacker Pass crucial to long-term energy independence.”

The government’s interest in Lithium Americas follows similar moves to shore up domestic supply chains for other critical materials. In July, MP Materials (NYSE: MP) announced a multibillion-dollar deal with the Department of Defense that made the government its largest shareholder, boosting MP’s stock more than 50%. Meanwhile, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has climbed over 25% since talks of a potential government stake in the chipmaker became public.

This pattern underscores the administration’s strategy of leveraging federal investment to reduce reliance on foreign sources of essential resources, from rare earth elements to semiconductors.

Lithium Americas stock traded at $6.09 as of 2:08 p.m. EDT, up more than 98% on the day. The sharp rally comes despite ongoing weakness in lithium prices, which have fallen over the past year amid oversupply from China. Futures for lithium carbonate are down more than 12%, while lithium hydroxide has dropped more than 4.5%.

Those price pressures have raised concerns about the financial viability of large-scale U.S. mining projects. The administration’s involvement could provide a stabilizing force, ensuring that key projects like Thacker Pass remain on track. The first loan draw is expected this month, with construction at the Nevada site already underway.

For now, investors appear to be betting that federal backing — and a potential government equity stake — could cement Lithium Americas’ role as a cornerstone of America’s clean energy future.

Take a moment and take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list.