Boeing 737 MAX: What’s Taking So Long?

Boeing 737 MAX: What’s Taking So Long?

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced point of view; sources listed in the “Balanced” section)

Boeing’s troubles began on October 29, 2018, when Lion Air Flight 610 experienced problems shortly after takeoff, struggled to ascend at a stable speed, and then crashed, killing all 189 passengers. Then on March 10th, while the investigation into the Lion Air crash was still underway, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 experienced disturbingly similar issues leading it to crash shortly after takeoff, killing all 157 people on board. In both instances, the pilots were flying a brand-new Boeing 737 MAX.

The 737 MAX was the fastest-selling airplane in Boeing (BA) history with about 5,000 orders from more than 100 customers worldwide. The model has completed thousands of successful flights and was widely considered by industry experts to be a safe aircraft. Nevertheless, following the crash of Flight 302, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) moved to temporarily ground the entire global fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircrafts.

Now, about a year after the first crash, half a year after its “temporary” grounding, and after thousands of canceled flights, the plane has yet to return to the skies. Originally, the company had hoped the aircraft model could return to service as soon as April. However, concerns regarding not only the plane itself, but also Boeing’s and the FAA’s approval processes has delayed the 737 MAX’s return to service. Currently, an international panel of air-safety regulators is finishing a report that is expected to criticize the FAA’s certification process. International regulators speculate that the FAA’s delegation of the assessment of certain flight-control features to Boeing and inadequate data sharing with foreign authorities during its certification likely contributed to the tragic events. Varying opinions on technical and procedural standards between international agencies has now spiraled into political and diplomatic clashes. The seemingly endless number of obstacles to the re-certification of the aircraft inspires the question, “Will the 737 MAX ever return to the sky?”

Directed Energy Weapons: Star Wars Redux?

Directed Energy Weapons: Star Wars Redux?

Recent tests of prototype directed energy weapons (DEW) have made it clear that this form of weaponry has moved beyond just a theoretical concept. Although lasers were first demonstrated in 1960, advances in a wide range of science disciplines have allowed various forms of DEWs to be refined for both civilian and military uses. Weapons classified as DEWs include high energy lasers, electromagnetic railguns, and radio frequency weapons such as high-power microwaves and ultra-wideband weapons. So how close are we to the deployment of DEWs and what is driving the development of such weapons? Are the latest class of DEWs real or is this a Star Wars redux?

How Will Rising Trade Tensions Impact the Aerospace Industry?

How Will Rising Trade Tensions
Impact the Aerospace Industry?

Last July, US President Donald Trump imposed a large number of tariffs on China, hoping to strike up a deal for better trade practices. So far, the US has implemented tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese products and China has responded with about $185 billion on US goods. At this point, neither side is willing to back down, and many industries are starting to feel the effects. As trade has been the biggest sector affected, airlines are planning for lowered overall profits.

Research – Vectrus (VEC) – Today’s Investments Will Pay Off Tomorrow

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Vectrus (VEC)

Today’s Investments Will Pay Off Tomorrow

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. The company generates nearly all its revenue from the United States Department of Defense. The company offerings are categorized into three types; infrastructure asset management services, logistics and supply-chain management services, and information technology and network communication services.

Joe Gomes, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Mixed 2Q19 Results. Vectrus reported revenue of $331.6 million, up 3.3% from $321.1 million in 2Q18, and above our $327 million estimate. EPS came in at $0.66, versus $0.81 in 2Q18 and our $0.76 estimate. EPS was negatively impacted by $0.08 per share of one time costs and the pull forward of certain investments. Vectrus did show sequential improvement in revenue, EBITDA margin, and EPS.
  • Revenue Diversification Continues. Vectrus’ focus on diversifying its revenue sources continues to show improvement. In the quarter, Air Force revenue jumped…



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Research – Ducommun (DCO) – Can Momentum in Commercial Aerospace Outlast 737 MAX Headwinds?

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Ducommun (DCO)

Can Momentum in Commercial Aerospace Outlast 737 MAX Headwinds?

Ducommun Inc is a leading global provider of engineering & manufacturing services for high-performance products & high-cost-of failure applications used primarily in the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical & other industries.

Christian Herbosa, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Q2 Top and Bottom Line Beat. Revenues of $180.5 million reflected a year-over-year increase of 16.6% and meaningfully exceeded consensus expectations of $167.9 million. Higher than expected sales and strong company performance drove DCO’s Q2 earnings per share of $0.66 to beat analyst consensus estimates of $0.57. 
  • Commercial Aerospace Drives Growth. DCO’s additional content and higher build rates on platforms like…



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Research – DLH Holdings Corp (DLHC) – What Do 3Q19 Results Tell Us About the Combined Company?

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

DLH Corporation (DLHC)

What Do 3Q19 Results Tell Us About the Combined Company?

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offer services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of defense and other government agencies.

Joe Gomes, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • 3Q19 Operating Results. DLH reported revenue of $38.7 million and diluted EPS of $0.06 for the third quarter. Included in revenue is a $4.5 million contribution from SSS and included in EPS is a $0.07 per share charge reflecting acquisition costs. Adjusting for SSS, DLH would have reported revenue of $34.2 million and EPS of $0.13, in-line with our forecast of $34 million and $0.12 EPS.
  • Pro Forma Results. On a pro forma basis for the quarter, the combined entity would have generated revenue of…



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research – Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Will the Outperformance Continue?

Thursday, August 1, 2019

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)

Will the Outperformance Continue?

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. provides engineering, information technology (IT) services, and warfighter solutions primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Kratos Government Solutions (KGS) and Public Safety and Security (PSS).

Joe Gomes, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Excellent 2Q19 Operating Results. Kratos posted strong 2Q revenue of $187.9 million and adjusted EBITDA of $19.2 million, above management’s guidance of $175-$185 million and $16-$18 million. We had projected revenue of $175 million and adjusted EBITDA of $15 million. Excluding Florida Turbine revenues, revenue grew organically 12.9%.
  • Hitting on All Cylinders. In 2Q, every Kratos business unit generated sequential organic revenue growth. Unmanned Systems revenue of $42.5 million was up…



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Research – Albany International Corp. (AIN) – Woah… Why were aerospace margins so strong this quarter?

Thursday, August 1, 2019

Albany International Corp. (AIN)

Woah… Why were aerospace margins so strong this quarter?

Albany International Corp. is a textiles and materials processing company. The Company operates through two segments: Machine Clothing (MC) and Albany Engineered Composites (AEC). Its MC segment supplies permeable and impermeable belts used in the manufacture of paper, paperboard, nonwovens, fiber cement and various other industrial applications.

Christian Herbosa, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Q2 Earnings Beat. Second quarter sales of $273.9 million came in slightly higher than our estimate of $270 million and was a 7.3% increase over the same period last year. Consolidated earnings of $34.1 million, however, delivered a substantial beat to our estimate of $26.8 million.
  • AEC Drives Margin Enhancement. The earnings beat this quarter was primarily driven by the AEC Segment. AEC adjusted EBITDA margins of 24% were meaningfully higher than past performance, our estimates, and company guidance. These results, however, may…



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Research – Orion Group Holdings – Another Project Award Boosts Record Backlog and Reinforces Positive Outlook.

Thursday, June 18, 2019

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

Another Project Award Boosts Record Backlog and Reinforces Positive Outlook.

Orion Group Holdings Inc is a US-based company which provides solutions in marine construction, design and specialty services both on and off the water in the continental US, Alaska, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Another large Marine award. Dredging work of $52 million on a crude oil export terminal should begin in 4Q2019 and run into 3Q2020. Dredging will allow Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to load at South Texas Gateway Terminal project. Design and demo work could expand the scope of the project for ORN and validate the emerging industrial strategy.
  • Award should push 2Q2019 backlog into $650 million range, another record. Combined with the large Terminal 5 project in Seattle that should begin this …



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Research – DLH Holdings (DLHC) – An Early Look at the Combined DLH and Social & Scientific Systems

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)

An Early Look at the Combined DLH and Social & Scientific Systems

DLH Holdings Corp is a provider of technology-enabled business process outsourcing and program management solutions in the United States. The company offer services to several government agencies which include the Department of veteran affairs, Department of health and human services, Department of defense and other government agencies.    

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Management Call. DLH management recently held a conference call to provide additional detail of the June 10th announcement of the Social & Scientific Systems (SSS) acquisition. The $70 million purchase, $63 million net of tax benefits, valued SSS at roughly 1x sales and 11x EBITDA. These multiples are in-line with industry metrics.
  • Acquisition Begins VA COMP De-Risking.. SSS significantly de-risks the potential loss of the VA-COMP business, in our view. SSS provides diversification for DLH, both on a revenue and end customer basis, and will broaden and… 


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Research – One Stop Systems (OSS) – What Impact Will the $60 Million OEM Agreement Have?

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

One Stop Systems (OSS)

What Impact Will the $60 Million OEM Agreement Have?

One Stop Systems Inc is US-based company which is principally engaged in designing, manufacturing, marketing high-end systems for high performance computing (HPC) applications. The company offers custom servers, compute accelerators, solid-state storage arrays and system expansion systems.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • OEM Agreement. OSS signed an exclusive five-year OEM and supply agreement with major customer Disguise Systems for media and entertainment servers. The agreement solidifies the relationship between the firms, in our view.
  • $60 Million Minimum Level. The agreement calls for a minimum $60 million of purchases over the five-year term, with the minimums rising from $10 million to…


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Research – Vectrus (VEC) – What does Advantor Systems add to Vectrus?

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Vectrus (VEC)

What does Advantor Systems add to Vectrus?

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. The company generates nearly all its revenue from the United States Department of Defense. The company offerings are categorized into three types; infrastructure asset management services, logistics and supply-chain management services, and information technology and network communication services.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to full report for price target, fundamental analysis and rating.

  • Advantor Systems Acquisition. Yesterday, Vectrus announced the acquisition of Advantor Systems Corporation, a leading provider of integrated electronic security systems to the federal government. Vectrus acquired the $35 million revenue company for $44 million, using cash on hand and the Company’s credit facility.
  • Market Leader. Deployed at over 2,000 client sites worldwide, Advantor is the only vertically integrated and accredited C3 networked security technology platform. Advantor clients include…


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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
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Research – Vectrus (VEC) – Named to Another Contract; Massaging Estimate

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Vectrus (VEC)

Solid 2018 performance; on track for five year goal of $2.5B revenue and 7% EBITDA margin.

Vectrus Inc is a
U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. The company
generates nearly all its revenue from the United States Department of Defense.
The company offerings are categorized into three types; infrastructure
asset management services, logistics and supply-chain management
services, and information technology and
network communication services.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RATING: OUTPERFORM

  • Named to Another Contract. In early June, Vectrus was named as one of 11 firms by the Department of State to the ID/IQ Diplomatic Platform Support Services (DiPSS) contract. With a ceiling value of $6 billion, DiPSS provides a full range of services for life support services, logistical services, and operations and maintenance services to the State Department across the globe.
  • A New Client, Playing to VEC’s Strengths. While it is a ID/IQ contract, the State Department further expands Vectrus’ client base and plays…  

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    certification and important disclosures included in full report. 
    NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
    this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
    making any investment decision.