Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Kelly Services (KELYA) – Motion Recruitment Partners in the Fold

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, June 04, 2024

Kelly (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. We’re always thinking about what’s next in the evolving world of work, and we help people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. We directly employ nearly 350,000 people around the world and connect thousands more with work through our global network of talent suppliers and partners in our outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2021 was $4.9 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and let us help with what’s next for you.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Completed. Kelly Services has completed the acquisition of Motion Recruitment Partners, LLC (“MRP”), from Littlejohn & Co., LLC, a private investment firm. As we highlighted in past reports, this is a transformational acquisition for Kelly, the largest in its history. We believe MRP will be a key driver in Kelly posting a higher revenue growth rate as well as continued expansion of Kelly’s adjusted EBITDA margin.

MRP Refresher. MRP is the parent company to a group of leading global talent solution providers. The acquisition of MRP strengthens the scale and capabilities of Kelly’s staffing and consulting solutions across technology, telecommunications, and government specialties in North America, and recruitment process outsourcing solutions globally.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

NYSE Trading Halt Highlights Need for Robust Systems Amid Market Changes

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The New York Stock Exchange experienced a technical glitch this morning that triggered trading halts in dozens of stocks, including big names like Chipotle, Berkshire Hathaway, and the meme stock GameStop. The issue stemmed from problems with the price bands published by the Consolidated Tape Association, which are used to prevent excess volatility by pausing trading if prices move too far too quickly.

While the specific cause is still being investigated, the timing raised concerns given the recent move by U.S. stock exchanges to a one-day settlement cycle last week. This SEC-mandated change requires trades to be settled one day after execution instead of two, compressing timeframes for transferring securities.

Regulators and market participants have been on high alert for potential snags as systems adapt to the new settlement cycle. Today’s incident underscores the critical importance of robust trading infrastructure and risk controls as market practices evolve.

Halting Mechanism Kicks In
At around 11am ET, the NYSE listed over 60 stocks as temporarily halted due to hitting their “limit up, limit down” (LULD) bands, which are circuit breaker levels to prevent extreme price swings. While some of those may have been unrelated cases of normal volatility, many were likely impacted by the pricing data issue.

The stock seeing among the biggest volatility was GameStop, which spiked over 70% at the open before being halted. Speculation swirled that investor Keith Gill, known as “Roaring Kitty” from the 2021 meme stock frenzy, may have taken a large new position.

Trading resumed around 11:45am after the exchange confirmed the pricing data problems had been resolved. While temporary, such disruptions can impact market quality, trading execution and risk management for investors and firms.

Need for Resilient Systems
As financial markets continually evolve, today’s problems highlight the crucial need for exchanges, trading platforms, and market participants to have ultra-resilient, glitch-proof systems able to adapt flawlessly to changes. Even brief failures can undermine market confidence and integrity.

While technological errors are inevitable at times, regulators and investors alike will be scrutinizing today’s NYSE issue and responses carefully. Having rock-solid trading infrastructure and controls in place to prevent and handle disruptions seamlessly is essential for maintaining fair, orderly and efficient markets.

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Release – Graham Corporation Receives $17 Million of Orders to Support Energy and Petroleum Expansion Projects in North America and the Middle East

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on GHM

BATAVIA, N.Y.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Graham Corporation (NYSE: GHM) (“GHM” or “the Company”), a global leader in the design and manufacture of mission critical fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum technologies for the defense, space, energy, and process industries, today announced that it has received approximately $17 million of orders for two expansion projects in the energy and petrochemical markets.

Daniel J. Thoren, President and CEO, commented, “We are excited to work with our North American customer as they aim to create the world’s first net-zero carbon emissions integrated ethylene cracker and derivatives site. Graham’s surface condensers with custom venting package allow the turbine drives to operate at peak efficiency and are considered state of the art in our industry. Additionally, we received a notable order to support an expansion project in the Middle East, which we attribute to our strong relationship and our customer’s preference for our high-performance steam jet ejectors.”

The North American order includes three surface condenser systems for critical service in both a main process unit and utility unit. This project aims to advance the eco-friendliness of natural gas refining, with the collective goal to minimize carbon emissions throughout the production process. The order was received in April 2024 and approximately 50% of the revenue is expected to be recognized in fiscal 2025 with the remainder expected in fiscal 2026.

For the Middle East expansion project, the Company was awarded a contract to supply a new vacuum system for a crude to chemical vacuum distillation tower. This project aims to bolster the production of Group II and Group III Base Oils. This order was received in March 2024, with revenue expected to be recognized in fiscal 2025.

About Graham Corporation

GHM is a global leader in the design and manufacture of mission critical fluid, power, heat transfer and vacuum technologies for the defense, space, energy and process industries. The Graham Manufacturing and Barber-Nichols’ global brands are built upon world-renowned engineering expertise in vacuum and heat transfer, cryogenic pumps and turbomachinery technologies, as well as its responsive and flexible service and the unsurpassed quality customers have come to expect from the Company’s products and systems.

Graham Corporation routinely posts news and other important information on its website, www.grahamcorp.com, where additional information on Graham Corporation and its businesses can be found.

Safe Harbor Regarding Forward Looking Statements

This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are identified by words such as “aims,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “potential,” and other similar words. All statements addressing operating performance, events, or developments that Graham Corporation expects or anticipates will occur in the future, including but not limited to, winning potential future or multi-year orders, potential revenues and timing of such revenues, capacity, demand growth, and delivering timely or otherwise on schedule are forward-looking statements. Because they are forward-looking, they should be evaluated in light of important risk factors and uncertainties. These risk factors and uncertainties are more fully described in Graham Corporation’s most recent Annual Report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including under the heading entitled “Risk Factors,” its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and other filings it makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should any of Graham Corporation’s underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those currently anticipated. In addition, undue reliance should not be placed on Graham Corporation’s forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, Graham Corporation disclaims any obligation to update or publicly announce any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements contained in this news release.

Christopher J. Thome
Vice President – Finance and CFO
Phone: (585) 343-2216

Deborah K. Pawlowski
Kei Advisors LLC
Phone: (716) 843-3908
dpawlowski@keiadvisors.com

Source: Graham Corporation

Released June 3, 2024

GameStop Stock Erupts Again as ‘Roaring Kitty’ Reveals $175 Million Position

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The original meme stock mania has been reawakened with a vengeance. GameStop (GME) shares skyrocketed over 70% amid frantic trading on Monday after retail trader Keith Gill, popularly known as “Roaring Kitty,” revealed a colossal new bullish position in the video game retailer.

In his first major post on Reddit in years, Gill shared a screenshot that appeared to show a staggering $175 million bet on GameStop. The purported stake consisted of 5 million shares valued at $116 million and $65.7 million worth of call options expiring in June.

The revelation instantly reignited the meme stock frenzy. Feverish trading volumes in GameStop stock spiked more than tenfold, briefly surpassing even the mighty Apple (AAPL) at one point. By mid-morning, GameStop’s heavily shorted shares had skyrocketed as high as 75% in an explosive upward move reminiscent of the legendary January 2021 short squeeze.

Fellow meme favorites like AMC Entertainment (AMC) caught a powerful sympathy rally bid as well, surging over 20% on massive volumes before getting temporarily halted. The meme stock comeback had arrived in full force.

Gill’s outsize position punched far above GameStop’s relatively small $7 billion market cap. Analysts noted the dramatic price impact stemmed from the stock’s concentrated short position, which got pulverized as the fortunes quickly shifted.

The sudden lurch higher put short sellers covering their losing bets on a pace to absorb nearly $1 billion in losses, according to analytics firm Ortex. GameStop once again became the most frenzied trading name across no-fee retail platforms like Robinhood (HOOD).

Longtime GameStop investors flooded Reddit forums like WallStreetBets and Superstonk with jubilant scenes. Rocket emojis and feverish rallying cries echoed the legendary meme stock heydays of 2021 as the “diamond hands” crowd smelled redemption.

However, some analysts cautioned that chasing GameStop’s vertigo-inducing rally carried substantial risks. The company continues grappling with operational challenges like slowing sales and a customer shift away from physical games toward digital downloads and streaming.

Still, the meme mania machine may be too powerful to stop now that it has been reactivated by its celebrity mascot. GameStop raised $933 million last month from a stock sale, taking advantage of May’s initial retail resurgence to fortify its turnaround ambitions.

While May’s hype dissipated quickly without broad staying power, the same explosive ingredients powering 2021’s mania remain in place today – and have only intensified with Gill’s outsized position. GameStop’s short interest spiked to nosebleed levels, leaving bearish traders acutely vulnerable to getting blown out by a sustained rally.

Those dynamics set the stage for an epic rematch between the “diamond hands” unleashed and hedge funds caught flat-footed. Redemption beckons for the OG meme crowd still down on their initial GameStop bets. Meanwhile, a new generation of retail traders is getting initiated into the frenzy, enticed by visions of generational wealth on a lucky long-shot wager.

There are no guarantees the meme stock fever lasts. But the tantalizing combination of high short interest, heavy retail buy interest, and now the return of an idolized icon like Roaring Kitty has all the makings of another wild speculative blowoff. The opening act of 2021’s wildest stock story may ultimately prove just the warmup before a shocking meme stock encore too insane to script.

Virtual Therapeutics Levels Up in Digital Mental Health With $276M Akili Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

One of the pioneering players in applying video game technology to treating mental health conditions is going all-in on its digital therapeutic ambitions. Virtual Therapeutics announced Monday it has struck a deal to acquire Akili, Inc. in an all-cash transaction valuing the digital therapeutics firm at $276 million.

The acquisition marks a bold consolidation move as Virtual Therapeutics aims to establish itself as a diversified leader in the rapidly evolving digital health landscape. Akili shareholders will receive $0.4340 per share under the terms of the agreement, representing an 85% premium to the stock’s closing price in late April before a strategic review was announced.

Virtual Therapeutics has built a portfolio of virtual reality and immersive game experiences explicitly designed to provide mental health and cognitive fitness solutions. By adding Akili’s clinically-validated mobile software products to its platform, the combined company can offer a multi-modal suite of digital therapeutic offerings across multiple therapeutic areas.

For Akili investors, the all-cash bid comes as a welcome event after a turbulent stretch for the newly-public company. Shares had plunged over 80% from their 2022 IPO price amid slower-than-expected uptake for its flagship ADHD treatment. The $276 million deal price provides Akili shareholders with a rare exit opportunity in the cash-burning digital health space.

Founded in 2011, Boston-based Akili pioneered a new category of medicine it calls “digital therapeutics” – video game-like software programs prescribed by doctors that are clinically validated to treat medical conditions directly through cognitive engagement and video inputs. Its lead product, EndeavorRx, was cleared by the FDA in 2020 as a treatment for children with ADHD.

Take a moment to discover more emerging growth biotechnology companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

Virtual Therapeutics has been taking a different tack, creating visually-rich, immersive game worlds as mental health interventions for conditions like depression, anxiety, PTSD and cognitive decline. The two approaches could prove complementary, with Akili’s mobile experiences providing one delivery mechanism and Virtual Therapeutics’ VR worlds offering an alternative modality.

Combining platforms may allow the merged company to deliver a truly multi-channel digital therapeutic offering spanning mobile, console and virtual reality environments. Cost synergies from eliminating redundancies in technology, R&D and sales infrastructure could also drive improved profitability over time.

For Virtual Therapeutics CEO and co-founder Dan Elenbaas, the Akili merger represents a major milestone in his mission to “bring behavioral health services to as many patients as possible” through engaging, accessible digital experiences. With clinical validation and regulatory clearance already in hand for Akili’s products, the road to scaling distribution and driving adoption may become clearer.

Weighing the deal’s benefits, BTIG analyst Mark Westbrook called the transaction “highly complementary” and stated it positions Virtual Therapeutics as a “clear leader” in delivering validated digital mental health solutions through novel experiential mediums like gaming.

While the digital therapeutics space is still in its infancy, the Virtual Therapeutics-Akili merger creates a formidable platform anchored by real-world clinical data and evidence. Akili gets taken private at a meaningful premium, while Virtual Therapeutics absorbs validated products to accelerate growth in its core mission of delivering modern, scalable solutions to the mental health crisis.

For healthcare investors seeking new frontiers, the combined digital mental health company resulting from this deal could be an enticing way to capitalize on gaming technology being repurposed for medical applications. Virtual reality video games may be just what the doctor ordered.

Tech Sell-Off Hits Broader Stock Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After a torrid five-week run higher, Wall Street took its foot off the gas this week as investors moved to book some profits. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8% over the last five sessions, ending an impressive stretch that saw the broad index rally over 6% since late April.

At the core of this week’s pullback was a cooldown in red-hot technology stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence frenzy. Semiconductor giant Nvidia, whose blowout earnings last week turbocharged the AI trade, shed over 9% this week as traders moved to cash in some of those monster gains.

Other mega cap tech leaders like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet also gave back ground, contributing to a 2.4% weekly slide for the Nasdaq Composite. With Big Tech serving as a weight on the market’s shoulders, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn’t spared either – the blue-chip index dropped over 2% itself.

The downshift marked an overdue pause that refreshed for the often overly-exuberant market. After storming nearly 15% off the lows over the previous seven weeks, a little air had to come out of the balloon, even with economic data continuing to hold up.

On the economic front, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading rose 2.8% year-over-year in April, slightly exceeding estimates. While inflation remains stubbornly high, the lack of a major upside surprise helped soothe fears of the Fed needing to pivot towards an even more aggressive policy stance.

The underlying commodity and service costs feeding into the PCE suggest inflation could start to moderate in the second half of 2023. That aligns with current Fed forecasts projecting two more 25 basis point rate hikes before calling it quits on this tightening cycle.

Assuming the Fed can stick the landing without snuffing out economic growth, conditions could remain conducive for further equity upside. History shows the S&P 500 tends to bottom around six months before the end of a tightening cycle – and rally sharply in the following 12 months.

This week’s dip may have seemed like an ominous turn, but it really just returned the major indexes back in line with the performance of other segments of the market. The Russell 2000 small-cap index and Russell 3000 representing the entire U.S. equity market have been lagging the S&P 500’s advance.

Over the past month, the Russell 3000 is up a more modest 2.8% versus a 5.2% gain for the big-cap dominated S&P 500. Small-caps as represented by the Russell 2000 have fared even worse with a 1.4% advance over that span.

Analysts pointed out small-caps have struggled to sustain upside momentum. Despite bouncing back from October’s lows, the Russell 2000 is still down 6% year-to-date versus a 10% rise for the large-cap Russell 1000.

Higher financing costs, softer economic growth prospects, and the fading benefits of 2022’s rally could continue to weigh on smaller stocks in the second half.

If large-cap tech remains under pressure, it could help narrow the performance gap – with the Russell mega-caps ceding some of their market-leading gains. But for now, most of Wall Street appears comfortable viewing this week’s pullback as simply clearing the way for the next move higher.

After all, some long-overdue profit-taking and consolidation can ultimately be healthy, helping reset overbought conditions and set the stage for sustained upside.

Salesforce Sell-Off Shakes Tech, AI Sectors But Could Spell Opportunity

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Salesforce’s shocking earnings miss and subsequent stock plunge sent shockwaves through the technology and artificial intelligence spaces on Thursday. But some investors see the dramatic selloff as a potential chance to buy into the AI growth story on the dip.

Shares of the cloud software giant cratered over 20% in early trading, putting the stock on pace for its worst single-day decline since going public nearly two decades ago. The plunge came after Salesforce reported its first top-line miss since 2006 and provided disappointing guidance, surprising Wall Street and raising concerns about cracks in business spending.

The selloff rapidly spread across the tech sector, with the Nasdaq tumbling over 2% as investors fled growth stocks. AI industry leaders were among the biggest drags on the index amid fears Salesforce’s shortfall could indicate broader economic turbulence.

While the numbers were clearly disappointing, some analysts remain steadfastly optimistic that Salesforce’s fortunes will turn as artificial intelligence proliferates. With $13.5 billion in cash and a portfolio of AI capabilities from its acquisition of startup Anthropic, contrarians are betting the company is well-positioned to monetize generative AI technologies over the long haul.

For small cap and retail traders, Salesforce’s dramatic share price compression could open an attractive entry point. The stock’s forward P/E has plunged below 20, near multi-year lows despite its exposure to the “game-changing AI theme.” With a market cap around $178 billion as of Thursday, some view Salesforce as a relative bargain in the potential AI winners circle.

AI economies of scale could help Salesforce flex its tech muscles again before too long. One firm expects the company to increasingly leverage AI not just for products, but also for improving productivity and driving revenue engine automation. Cost streamlining aided by AI could lift operating margins towards the company’s target over time.

For traders and institutions alike, the frenzied selling appears to be creating an intriguing disconnect between Salesforce’s current valuation and what bulls perceive as enviable AI exposure compared to pricier megacap tech names. If dark economic clouds do part, the recent plunge could mark an opportunistic entry point.

Volatility around AI innovators is likely to remain elevated as the marketplace continues rapidly evolving. However, Salesforce’s cloud presence, entrenched client base, and multi-billion AI investments suggest it’s far too early to throw in the towel on this pioneering tech trailblazer.

GTCR to Take Surmodics Private in $627 Million Medical Tech Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

One of the medical technology industry’s leading providers of coating systems and surface modification is being taken private by private equity firm GTCR in a $627 million deal. Surmodics (SRDX) announced Monday that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by GTCR in an all-cash transaction valuing the company at $43 per share.

The acquisition price represents a premium of over 41% to Surmodics’ average trading price over the past 30 days. It comes amid a broader push by private equity to double down on investments in the healthcare technology space as medical device innovation accelerates.

Surmodics has been a pioneer in the delivery of surface modification solutions that enhance the biocompatibility of medical products. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company’s technologies are used by blue-chip medical device manufacturers to enable products to interact more safely and effectively with the human body.

Its proprietary coating and treatment platforms are integrated into thousands of devices including vascular intervention technologies, minimally invasive surgical tools, in vitro diagnostics, and ophthalmic products. Surface treatments from Surmodics can improve device thromboresistance, lubricity, durability, adhesion, and biocompatibility.

Those differentiated capabilities caught the eye of GTCR, which has significant experience investing in healthcare companies. The Chicago-based private equity firm currently manages over $25 billion in equity capital across multiple investment strategies.

For Surmodics shareholders, the $43 per share cash deal represents an attractive exit price. In addition to the 41% premium to the recent trading average, the buyout price is 26% higher than where the stock closed on Friday. The company’s shares soared 25% on Monday following news of the transaction.

Surmodics’ Board of Directors unanimously approved the merger agreement and recommends shareholders vote in favor of the deal. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2024, subject to shareholder approval, regulatory clearances, and other customary closing conditions.

Upon completion of the acquisition, Surmodics will become a privately held company and its shares will cease trading on the Nasdaq exchange.

The medical coatings and surface technology space has seen heightened M&A activity in recent years as major medical product companies seek to enhance their product pipelines. Private equity investors like GTCR have ample dry powder to deploy into healthcare sectors positioned for durable growth driven by demographic tailwinds and innovation.

While going private will provide Surmodics with flexibility to invest for the long-term, the $627 million price tag validates the company’s tools and know-how as essential for next-generation medical device engineering. As healthcare investors compete to back enablers of cutting-edge medical products, GTCR’s bet on Surmodics’ coating capabilities could pay off handsomely.

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Wall Street Under Pressure as Fed Rate Uncertainty Weighs

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Investors were squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates as Wall Street kicked off the new week on a sour note. The major indexes pulled back on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding nearly 1% to its lowest level in nearly a month.

The culprit? Rising Treasury yields across the board as expectations get muddled on when exactly the Fed will start cutting rates and by how much. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to a four-week high after an unexpectedly strong reading on U.S. consumer confidence.

This hits right at the heart of the stock market’s biggest preoccupation of late – will the Fed’s rate hiking campaign successfully tame inflation without severely denting economic growth? The conflicting signals have investors scratching their heads and selling stocks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq retreated from Tuesday’s milestone close above 17,000, with pressure on megacap names like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. The semiconductor index, a recent leadership group, dropped nearly 2%. Small-caps also got hit hard as the Russell 2000 fell over 1%.

Treasury yields climbing is a negative for valuations, especially in richly-valued sectors like tech. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked to its highest level since early May as rate concerns contributed to the market’s unease.

Investors began 2023 pricing in rate cuts as early as March, but sticky inflation readings and hawkish Fed rhetoric have walked back those expectations. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now only betting on a 25 basis point cut by November or December at the earliest.

The Fed’s “Beige Book” released Wednesday afternoon provided little clarity, depicting an economy expanding at a modest pace with elevated price pressures. Traders are now laser-focused on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Fed’s favored inflation metric.

Amid the cross-currents, there were pockets of strength driven by solid corporate news. Marathon Oil surged 8.7% after ConocoPhillips announced a $15 billion all-stock acquisition of the energy firm. DICK’S Sporting Goods and Abercrombie & Fitch also rallied double-digits after boosting their annual guidance.

But the broader market sold off, with declines across all eleven S&P 500 sectors. The airline industry was a notable laggard, with an airline stocks index tanking over 4% after American Airlines slashed its profit forecast.

For now, uncertainty continues to breed anxiety on Wall Street as investors attempt to gauge whether the Fed can orchestrate a long-hoped-for “soft landing” or if more turbulence is in store. All eyes will be laser-focused on upcoming inflation data and Fed speak for further clues on the path forward for interest rates.

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Charging Ahead: How U.S. Tariffs on Chinese EVs Will Impact the Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The United States government has fired a major salvo in the escalating electric vehicle (EV) battleground with China, slapping heavy tariffs on Chinese EV imports as well as key battery materials and components. While the move aims to protect American jobs and manufacturers, it carries significant implications for automakers, suppliers, and investor portfolios on both sides of the Pacific.

At the center of the new trade barriers is a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs entering the U.S. market. The administration has also imposed 25% duties on lithium-ion batteries, battery parts, and critical minerals like graphite, permanent magnets, and cobalt used in EV production.

For American automakers like Tesla, General Motors, and Ford, the tariffs could provide a substantial competitive advantage on home soil. By erecting steep import costs on Chinese EVs, it makes their domestically produced electric models immediately more price competitive versus foreign rivals. This pricing edge could help ramp up EV sales for Detroit’s Big Three as they work to gain traction in this burgeoning market.

The tariffs represent a major headache for Chinese automakers like BYD that have ambitions to crack the lucrative U.S. EV market. BYD and peers like Nio have been counting on American sales to drive their global expansion efforts. The 100% tariff makes their EVs essentially uncompetitive on price compared to domestic alternatives.

However, the calculus could change if Chinese EV makers ramp up battery production and vehicle assembly closer to U.S. shores. BYD has already established a manufacturing footprint in Mexico. If more production is localized in North America, Chinese brands may be able to circumvent the duties while realizing lower logistics costs.

The impacts extend beyond just automakers. Battery material suppliers and lithium producers could face production cuts and lower pricing if Chinese EV demand softens due to fewer exports heading stateside. Major lithium producers like Albemarle and SQM saw shares dip as the tariff news increased global oversupply fears.

But if U.S. electric vehicle adoption accelerates in response to the import barriers, it could create new demand for lithium and other battery materials from domestic sources, analysts note. North American miners and processors may emerge as beneficiaries as automakers look to localize their supply chains.

Of course, trade disputes cut both ways. There are risks that China could retaliate against major U.S. exports or American companies operating in the country. That creates potential headwinds for a wide range of U.S. multinationals like Apple, Boeing, and Starbucks that rely on Chinese production and consumption. Any tit-for-tat actions could ripple across the global economy.

The levies also raise costs across EV supply chains at a vulnerable time. With inflation already depressing consumer demand, pricier batteries and components could curb the pace of electrification both in the U.S. and globally if passed along to car buyers. Conversely, domestic automakers have leeway to absorb higher input expenses to gain market share from Chinese imports.

With EV competition heating up between the world’s two largest economies, investors will need to scrupulously analyze potential winners and losers from the unfolding trade battle across the electric auto ecosystem. In the near-term, the tariffs appear to boost American legacy automakers while putting China’s crop of upstart EV makers on the defensive. Global battery and mineral suppliers face an uncertain shake-up.

Over the longer haul, costs, capital outlays, production geography, and consumer demand dynamics will ultimately determine the fallout’s enduring market impacts. The new levies represent a double-edged sword potentially accelerating the EV transition in the U.S. while fracturing previously integrated cross-border supply lines.

Prudent investors should weigh both the risks and opportunities across the entire EV value chain. While headline-grabbing, tariffs alone won’t determine winners and losers in the seismic shift to electric mobility taking shape globally. Proactively adjusting portfolios to the changing landscape will be crucial for optimizing exposures.

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Release – Ocugen Set to Join Russell 3000® Index Effective June 28, 2024

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on OCGN

MALVERN, Pa., May 28, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ocugen, Inc. (Ocugen or the Company) (NASDAQ: OCGN), a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines, today announced its expected upcoming inclusion in the Russell 3000® Index, according to preliminary Russell reconstruction information posted on the FTSE Russell website. The newly reconstructed index will take effect after the market closes on June 28, 2024.

“Inclusion of Ocugen to the Russell 3000® Index is our latest milestone, adding to what has already been a transformational year for the Company with three of our game-changing modifier gene therapies targeting blindness diseases—both rare and those affecting millions—in clinical trials,” said Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Chairman, CEO, and Co-founder of Ocugen. “This ranking signifies the value of our pipeline, including the recently initiated Phase 3 liMeliGhT clinical trial of OCU400 for broad retinitis pigmentosa, and robust growth strategy, supporting our efforts to enable long-term shareholder value, garner significant visibility of Ocugen within the investment community, and broaden our shareholder base.”

The annual Russell 3000® Index reconstitution measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market as of Tuesday, April 30.

Membership in the U.S. Russell 3000® remains in place for one year and means automatic inclusion in the appropriate growth and value style indexes. FTSE Russell determines membership for its Russell indexes primarily by objective, market-capitalization rankings, and style attributes.

Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors for index funds and as benchmarks for active investment strategies. Russell’s U.S. indexes serve as the benchmark for about $10.5 trillion in assets as of the close of December 2023. Russell indexes are part of FTSE Russell, a leading global index provider.

About FTSE Russell:
FTSE Russell is a leading global provider of benchmarking, analytics, and data solutions for investors, giving them a precise view of the market relevant to their investment process. A comprehensive range of reliable and accurate indexes provides investors worldwide with the tools they require to measure and benchmark markets across asset classes, styles, or strategies.

FTSE Russell index expertise and products are used extensively by institutional and retail investors globally. For over 30 years, leading asset owners, asset managers, ETF providers and investment banks have chosen FTSE Russell indexes to benchmark their investment performance and create ETFs, structured products, and index-based derivatives.

FTSE Russell is focused on applying the highest industry standards in index design and governance, employing transparent rules-based methodology informed by independent committees of leading market participants. FTSE Russell fully embraces the IOSCO Principles, and its Statement of Compliance has received independent assurance. Index innovation is driven by client needs and customer partnerships, allowing FTSE Russell to continually enhance the breadth, depth and reach of its offering.

FTSE Russell is wholly owned by London Stock Exchange Group. For more information, visit: https://www.lseg.com/en/ftse-russell.

About Ocugen, Inc.
Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines that improve health and offer hope for patients across the globe. We are making an impact on patient’s lives through courageous innovation—forging new scientific paths that harness our unique intellectual and human capital. Our breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with a single product, and we are advancing research in infectious diseases to support public health and orthopedic diseases to address unmet medical needs. Discover more at www.ocugen.com and follow us on X and LinkedIn.

Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, but not limited to, statements regarding the Company’s expected inclusion in the Russell 3000 ® Index, qualitative assessments of available data, potential benefits, expectations for ongoing clinical trials, anticipated regulatory filings and anticipated development timelines, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We may, in some cases, use terms such as “predicts,” “believes,” “potential,” “proposed,” “continue,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “may,” “could,” “might,” “will,” “should,” or other words that convey uncertainty of future events or outcomes to identify these forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to numerous important factors, risks, and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ materially from our current expectations, including, but not limited to, the risks that changes may be made to the preliminary Russell reconstruction lists prior to finalization, that preliminary, interim and top-line clinical trial results may not be indicative of, and may differ from, final clinical data; that unfavorable new clinical trial data may emerge in ongoing clinical trials or through further analyses of existing clinical trial data; that earlier non-clinical and clinical data and testing of may not be predictive of the results or success of later clinical trials; and that that clinical trial data are subject to differing interpretations and assessments, including by regulatory authorities. These and other risks and uncertainties are more fully described in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the risk factors described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the quarterly and annual reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release. Except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements contained in this press release whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, after the date of this press release.

Contact:
Tiffany Hamilton
Head of Communications
Tiffany.Hamilton@ocugen.com

Russell Reconstitution 2024: The Ultimate Guide to This Year’s Index Shake-Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The annual Russell reconstitution is one of the biggest events in the investing world, shaping the composition of the widely followed Russell indexes, including the influential Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. This comprehensive process ensures these indexes accurately represent various U.S. market segments by reflecting changes in company market capitalizations and characteristics.

What is the Russell Reconstitution?
The Russell reconstitution is an annual rebalancing process where all Russell equity indexes undergo a complete overhaul. During reconstitution, the index provider FTSE Russell rebuilds the Russell indexes from the ground up based on new data on eligible stocks’ market caps, trading volumes, and other criteria.

This vital event maintains the integrity of Russell indexes as accurate benchmarks by updating their holdings to reflect the current landscape of the U.S. stock market. Reconstitution allows companies that have grown or shrunk in value to be properly represented in the appropriate Russell indexes.

The Importance of the Russell 3000 Index
A major focus of the reconstitution is the Russell 3000 Index, considered one of the leading benchmarks for the overall U.S. equity market. This index aims to capture 98% of U.S. stocks by market cap.

On May 24, 2024, FTSE Russell published its annual reconstitution updates, revealing notable new additions to the Russell 3000 like Ocugen, Eledon Pharmaceuticals, NN Inc., and Bitcoin Depot. Such changes highlight how reconstitution allows the index to evolve with the market.

The Closely Watched Russell 2000 Index
Another keenly watched Russell index is the small-cap Russell 2000, which tracks the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 by market cap. This index is considered a leading benchmark for small-cap U.S. stocks.

During reconstitution, companies can move in or out of the Russell 2000 based on changes to their market capitalization or investment style exposures like value vs growth. This rebalancing ensures the Russell 2000 precisely represents today’s small-cap universe.

IPO Additions Throughout the Year
In addition to the annual reset, FTSE Russell regularly adds eligible IPO stocks to its indexes on a quarterly basis. This allows newly public companies to quickly enter major benchmarks like the Russell 3000 instead of waiting for reconstitution.

Russell’s IPO treatment distinguishes between fully underwritten IPOs and partial or “best efforts” public offerings when determining appropriate share weights and eligibility.

Rebalancing Drives Major Trading Activity
Russell reconstitution is a major trading event, as index funds and ETFs tracking Russell benchmarks must rebalance their portfolios to match updated index constituents and weightings.

Estimates suggest hundreds of billions in assets follow the Russell benchmarks, meaning their reconstitution announcements can trigger massive shifts in demand for newly added or removed stocks.

Following Russell’s Transparent Methodology
FTSE Russell’s reconstitution process follows an objective, rules-based methodology spelled out in publicly available documentation. Key eligibility factors include:

  • Trading on eligible U.S. stock exchanges
  • Meeting minimum price, market cap, and liquidity thresholds
  • Sufficient public share float and voting rights
  • Eligible corporate structures like public operating companies

Staying on top of Russell’s transparent reconstitution rules allows investors to understand how index changes may impact their portfolios and positions.

The Russell Reconstitution’s Continuing Impact
As indexes like the Russell 3000 continue gaining prominence as core portfolio benchmarks, Russell reconstitution’s influence grows. The 2024 event reinforces the Russell indexes’ role in definitively capturing U.S. market performance by surgery evolving index holdings to match current realities.

Whether reallocating client assets, developing new index funds, or simply understanding market composition changes, the 2024 Russell reconstitution guide will prove essential reading for investors. Follow this yearly event closely, as it shapes the benchmarks driving U.S. equity allocations for years to come.

Upcoming 2024 Russell Reconstitution Schedule

Friday, May 31st, June 7th, 14th, and 21st – Preliminary membership lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6PM US eastern time.

Monday, June 10th – “Lock-down” period begins with the updates to reconstitution membership considered to be final.

Friday, June 28th – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.

Monday, July 1st – Equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.

Bitcoin Mining Showdown: Riot Platforms’ Power Play for Bitfarms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a bold move that could significantly reshape the cryptocurrency mining industry, Riot Platforms Inc. has made an unsolicited offer to acquire rival Bitcoin miner Bitfarms Ltd. for $950 million. This acquisition bid, which includes both cash and stock, values Bitfarms at $2.30 per share, a 20% premium over its pre-offer trading price. Riot’s aggressive strategy is driven by recent industry dynamics and Bitfarms’ internal challenges, and it has the potential to profoundly impact the Bitcoin mining landscape.

Riot Platforms, already a major player in the Bitcoin mining sector, has taken a 9.25% stake in Bitfarms, making it the largest shareholder. This move follows Bitfarms’ management turmoil, including the firing of interim CEO Geoffrey Morphy, who is now suing the company for $27 million in damages. Riot’s initial offer, made on April 22, was rejected by Bitfarms’ board without substantive dialogue. Undeterred, Riot plans to call a shareholder meeting to appoint new independent directors, signaling a clear intention to influence Bitfarms’ strategic direction.

The proposed acquisition highlights a significant trend in the Bitcoin mining sector: consolidation. This trend has been accelerated by the recent Bitcoin “halving,” an event that occurs approximately every four years and cuts the rewards miners receive for validating transactions by 50%. This reduction in rewards tightens margins and pushes miners to either scale operations or seek consolidation to maintain profitability.

For Riot, absorbing Bitfarms would create the largest Bitcoin miner globally, based on projected computing power growth. This expansion would significantly enhance Riot’s Bitcoin production capabilities, positioning it alongside industry giants like Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. and CleanSpark Inc. The increased scale and capacity would provide Riot with greater negotiating power, more efficient operations, and improved resilience against market fluctuations and rising energy costs.

Riot’s pursuit of Bitfarms sends a clear message to other players in the Bitcoin mining space: scale is essential for survival and success in the post-halving era. Smaller miners, already struggling with reduced revenues and limited access to capital, may find it increasingly challenging to compete against larger, resource-rich companies. This could trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions as miners seek to consolidate resources, optimize operations, and leverage economies of scale.

For instance, Bitcoin miner Stronghold Digital Mining Inc. is already exploring strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. As the industry adapts to the new economic realities imposed by the halving, more companies might follow suit, either by seeking mergers or becoming acquisition targets themselves.

The consolidation trend among Bitcoin miners has broader implications for the cryptocurrency industry. Firstly, it could lead to increased centralization of mining power, potentially raising concerns about the decentralization ethos of Bitcoin. However, it could also result in more efficient and stable mining operations, reducing the risk of disruptions and enhancing the overall security and reliability of the Bitcoin network.

Moreover, large-scale miners like Riot, with significant resources and capacity, are better positioned to adopt sustainable practices and negotiate favorable energy contracts, potentially addressing some of the environmental criticisms faced by the industry.

Riot Platforms’ bid to acquire Bitfarms marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of Bitcoin mining. This strategic move underscores the importance of scale in navigating the post-halving landscape and sets the stage for further consolidation in the industry. For investors and stakeholders in the cryptocurrency space, this development highlights the dynamic and competitive nature of Bitcoin mining, where agility, resources, and strategic vision are key to thriving in an ever-evolving market. As the industry continues to mature, the actions of major players like Riot will undoubtedly shape the future of cryptocurrency mining and its role within the broader financial ecosystem.

Take a moment to take a look at Bit Digital, a large-scale bitcoin mining business with operations across the U.S. and Canada.