Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Virtual Therapeutics Levels Up in Digital Mental Health With $276M Akili Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

One of the pioneering players in applying video game technology to treating mental health conditions is going all-in on its digital therapeutic ambitions. Virtual Therapeutics announced Monday it has struck a deal to acquire Akili, Inc. in an all-cash transaction valuing the digital therapeutics firm at $276 million.

The acquisition marks a bold consolidation move as Virtual Therapeutics aims to establish itself as a diversified leader in the rapidly evolving digital health landscape. Akili shareholders will receive $0.4340 per share under the terms of the agreement, representing an 85% premium to the stock’s closing price in late April before a strategic review was announced.

Virtual Therapeutics has built a portfolio of virtual reality and immersive game experiences explicitly designed to provide mental health and cognitive fitness solutions. By adding Akili’s clinically-validated mobile software products to its platform, the combined company can offer a multi-modal suite of digital therapeutic offerings across multiple therapeutic areas.

For Akili investors, the all-cash bid comes as a welcome event after a turbulent stretch for the newly-public company. Shares had plunged over 80% from their 2022 IPO price amid slower-than-expected uptake for its flagship ADHD treatment. The $276 million deal price provides Akili shareholders with a rare exit opportunity in the cash-burning digital health space.

Founded in 2011, Boston-based Akili pioneered a new category of medicine it calls “digital therapeutics” – video game-like software programs prescribed by doctors that are clinically validated to treat medical conditions directly through cognitive engagement and video inputs. Its lead product, EndeavorRx, was cleared by the FDA in 2020 as a treatment for children with ADHD.

Take a moment to discover more emerging growth biotechnology companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

Virtual Therapeutics has been taking a different tack, creating visually-rich, immersive game worlds as mental health interventions for conditions like depression, anxiety, PTSD and cognitive decline. The two approaches could prove complementary, with Akili’s mobile experiences providing one delivery mechanism and Virtual Therapeutics’ VR worlds offering an alternative modality.

Combining platforms may allow the merged company to deliver a truly multi-channel digital therapeutic offering spanning mobile, console and virtual reality environments. Cost synergies from eliminating redundancies in technology, R&D and sales infrastructure could also drive improved profitability over time.

For Virtual Therapeutics CEO and co-founder Dan Elenbaas, the Akili merger represents a major milestone in his mission to “bring behavioral health services to as many patients as possible” through engaging, accessible digital experiences. With clinical validation and regulatory clearance already in hand for Akili’s products, the road to scaling distribution and driving adoption may become clearer.

Weighing the deal’s benefits, BTIG analyst Mark Westbrook called the transaction “highly complementary” and stated it positions Virtual Therapeutics as a “clear leader” in delivering validated digital mental health solutions through novel experiential mediums like gaming.

While the digital therapeutics space is still in its infancy, the Virtual Therapeutics-Akili merger creates a formidable platform anchored by real-world clinical data and evidence. Akili gets taken private at a meaningful premium, while Virtual Therapeutics absorbs validated products to accelerate growth in its core mission of delivering modern, scalable solutions to the mental health crisis.

For healthcare investors seeking new frontiers, the combined digital mental health company resulting from this deal could be an enticing way to capitalize on gaming technology being repurposed for medical applications. Virtual reality video games may be just what the doctor ordered.

Tech Sell-Off Hits Broader Stock Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After a torrid five-week run higher, Wall Street took its foot off the gas this week as investors moved to book some profits. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8% over the last five sessions, ending an impressive stretch that saw the broad index rally over 6% since late April.

At the core of this week’s pullback was a cooldown in red-hot technology stocks benefiting from the artificial intelligence frenzy. Semiconductor giant Nvidia, whose blowout earnings last week turbocharged the AI trade, shed over 9% this week as traders moved to cash in some of those monster gains.

Other mega cap tech leaders like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet also gave back ground, contributing to a 2.4% weekly slide for the Nasdaq Composite. With Big Tech serving as a weight on the market’s shoulders, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn’t spared either – the blue-chip index dropped over 2% itself.

The downshift marked an overdue pause that refreshed for the often overly-exuberant market. After storming nearly 15% off the lows over the previous seven weeks, a little air had to come out of the balloon, even with economic data continuing to hold up.

On the economic front, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading rose 2.8% year-over-year in April, slightly exceeding estimates. While inflation remains stubbornly high, the lack of a major upside surprise helped soothe fears of the Fed needing to pivot towards an even more aggressive policy stance.

The underlying commodity and service costs feeding into the PCE suggest inflation could start to moderate in the second half of 2023. That aligns with current Fed forecasts projecting two more 25 basis point rate hikes before calling it quits on this tightening cycle.

Assuming the Fed can stick the landing without snuffing out economic growth, conditions could remain conducive for further equity upside. History shows the S&P 500 tends to bottom around six months before the end of a tightening cycle – and rally sharply in the following 12 months.

This week’s dip may have seemed like an ominous turn, but it really just returned the major indexes back in line with the performance of other segments of the market. The Russell 2000 small-cap index and Russell 3000 representing the entire U.S. equity market have been lagging the S&P 500’s advance.

Over the past month, the Russell 3000 is up a more modest 2.8% versus a 5.2% gain for the big-cap dominated S&P 500. Small-caps as represented by the Russell 2000 have fared even worse with a 1.4% advance over that span.

Analysts pointed out small-caps have struggled to sustain upside momentum. Despite bouncing back from October’s lows, the Russell 2000 is still down 6% year-to-date versus a 10% rise for the large-cap Russell 1000.

Higher financing costs, softer economic growth prospects, and the fading benefits of 2022’s rally could continue to weigh on smaller stocks in the second half.

If large-cap tech remains under pressure, it could help narrow the performance gap – with the Russell mega-caps ceding some of their market-leading gains. But for now, most of Wall Street appears comfortable viewing this week’s pullback as simply clearing the way for the next move higher.

After all, some long-overdue profit-taking and consolidation can ultimately be healthy, helping reset overbought conditions and set the stage for sustained upside.

Salesforce Sell-Off Shakes Tech, AI Sectors But Could Spell Opportunity

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Salesforce’s shocking earnings miss and subsequent stock plunge sent shockwaves through the technology and artificial intelligence spaces on Thursday. But some investors see the dramatic selloff as a potential chance to buy into the AI growth story on the dip.

Shares of the cloud software giant cratered over 20% in early trading, putting the stock on pace for its worst single-day decline since going public nearly two decades ago. The plunge came after Salesforce reported its first top-line miss since 2006 and provided disappointing guidance, surprising Wall Street and raising concerns about cracks in business spending.

The selloff rapidly spread across the tech sector, with the Nasdaq tumbling over 2% as investors fled growth stocks. AI industry leaders were among the biggest drags on the index amid fears Salesforce’s shortfall could indicate broader economic turbulence.

While the numbers were clearly disappointing, some analysts remain steadfastly optimistic that Salesforce’s fortunes will turn as artificial intelligence proliferates. With $13.5 billion in cash and a portfolio of AI capabilities from its acquisition of startup Anthropic, contrarians are betting the company is well-positioned to monetize generative AI technologies over the long haul.

For small cap and retail traders, Salesforce’s dramatic share price compression could open an attractive entry point. The stock’s forward P/E has plunged below 20, near multi-year lows despite its exposure to the “game-changing AI theme.” With a market cap around $178 billion as of Thursday, some view Salesforce as a relative bargain in the potential AI winners circle.

AI economies of scale could help Salesforce flex its tech muscles again before too long. One firm expects the company to increasingly leverage AI not just for products, but also for improving productivity and driving revenue engine automation. Cost streamlining aided by AI could lift operating margins towards the company’s target over time.

For traders and institutions alike, the frenzied selling appears to be creating an intriguing disconnect between Salesforce’s current valuation and what bulls perceive as enviable AI exposure compared to pricier megacap tech names. If dark economic clouds do part, the recent plunge could mark an opportunistic entry point.

Volatility around AI innovators is likely to remain elevated as the marketplace continues rapidly evolving. However, Salesforce’s cloud presence, entrenched client base, and multi-billion AI investments suggest it’s far too early to throw in the towel on this pioneering tech trailblazer.

GTCR to Take Surmodics Private in $627 Million Medical Tech Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

One of the medical technology industry’s leading providers of coating systems and surface modification is being taken private by private equity firm GTCR in a $627 million deal. Surmodics (SRDX) announced Monday that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by GTCR in an all-cash transaction valuing the company at $43 per share.

The acquisition price represents a premium of over 41% to Surmodics’ average trading price over the past 30 days. It comes amid a broader push by private equity to double down on investments in the healthcare technology space as medical device innovation accelerates.

Surmodics has been a pioneer in the delivery of surface modification solutions that enhance the biocompatibility of medical products. The Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company’s technologies are used by blue-chip medical device manufacturers to enable products to interact more safely and effectively with the human body.

Its proprietary coating and treatment platforms are integrated into thousands of devices including vascular intervention technologies, minimally invasive surgical tools, in vitro diagnostics, and ophthalmic products. Surface treatments from Surmodics can improve device thromboresistance, lubricity, durability, adhesion, and biocompatibility.

Those differentiated capabilities caught the eye of GTCR, which has significant experience investing in healthcare companies. The Chicago-based private equity firm currently manages over $25 billion in equity capital across multiple investment strategies.

For Surmodics shareholders, the $43 per share cash deal represents an attractive exit price. In addition to the 41% premium to the recent trading average, the buyout price is 26% higher than where the stock closed on Friday. The company’s shares soared 25% on Monday following news of the transaction.

Surmodics’ Board of Directors unanimously approved the merger agreement and recommends shareholders vote in favor of the deal. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2024, subject to shareholder approval, regulatory clearances, and other customary closing conditions.

Upon completion of the acquisition, Surmodics will become a privately held company and its shares will cease trading on the Nasdaq exchange.

The medical coatings and surface technology space has seen heightened M&A activity in recent years as major medical product companies seek to enhance their product pipelines. Private equity investors like GTCR have ample dry powder to deploy into healthcare sectors positioned for durable growth driven by demographic tailwinds and innovation.

While going private will provide Surmodics with flexibility to invest for the long-term, the $627 million price tag validates the company’s tools and know-how as essential for next-generation medical device engineering. As healthcare investors compete to back enablers of cutting-edge medical products, GTCR’s bet on Surmodics’ coating capabilities could pay off handsomely.

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Wall Street Under Pressure as Fed Rate Uncertainty Weighs

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Investors were squarely focused on the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates as Wall Street kicked off the new week on a sour note. The major indexes pulled back on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding nearly 1% to its lowest level in nearly a month.

The culprit? Rising Treasury yields across the board as expectations get muddled on when exactly the Fed will start cutting rates and by how much. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to a four-week high after an unexpectedly strong reading on U.S. consumer confidence.

This hits right at the heart of the stock market’s biggest preoccupation of late – will the Fed’s rate hiking campaign successfully tame inflation without severely denting economic growth? The conflicting signals have investors scratching their heads and selling stocks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq retreated from Tuesday’s milestone close above 17,000, with pressure on megacap names like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. The semiconductor index, a recent leadership group, dropped nearly 2%. Small-caps also got hit hard as the Russell 2000 fell over 1%.

Treasury yields climbing is a negative for valuations, especially in richly-valued sectors like tech. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked to its highest level since early May as rate concerns contributed to the market’s unease.

Investors began 2023 pricing in rate cuts as early as March, but sticky inflation readings and hawkish Fed rhetoric have walked back those expectations. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now only betting on a 25 basis point cut by November or December at the earliest.

The Fed’s “Beige Book” released Wednesday afternoon provided little clarity, depicting an economy expanding at a modest pace with elevated price pressures. Traders are now laser-focused on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Fed’s favored inflation metric.

Amid the cross-currents, there were pockets of strength driven by solid corporate news. Marathon Oil surged 8.7% after ConocoPhillips announced a $15 billion all-stock acquisition of the energy firm. DICK’S Sporting Goods and Abercrombie & Fitch also rallied double-digits after boosting their annual guidance.

But the broader market sold off, with declines across all eleven S&P 500 sectors. The airline industry was a notable laggard, with an airline stocks index tanking over 4% after American Airlines slashed its profit forecast.

For now, uncertainty continues to breed anxiety on Wall Street as investors attempt to gauge whether the Fed can orchestrate a long-hoped-for “soft landing” or if more turbulence is in store. All eyes will be laser-focused on upcoming inflation data and Fed speak for further clues on the path forward for interest rates.

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Charging Ahead: How U.S. Tariffs on Chinese EVs Will Impact the Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The United States government has fired a major salvo in the escalating electric vehicle (EV) battleground with China, slapping heavy tariffs on Chinese EV imports as well as key battery materials and components. While the move aims to protect American jobs and manufacturers, it carries significant implications for automakers, suppliers, and investor portfolios on both sides of the Pacific.

At the center of the new trade barriers is a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs entering the U.S. market. The administration has also imposed 25% duties on lithium-ion batteries, battery parts, and critical minerals like graphite, permanent magnets, and cobalt used in EV production.

For American automakers like Tesla, General Motors, and Ford, the tariffs could provide a substantial competitive advantage on home soil. By erecting steep import costs on Chinese EVs, it makes their domestically produced electric models immediately more price competitive versus foreign rivals. This pricing edge could help ramp up EV sales for Detroit’s Big Three as they work to gain traction in this burgeoning market.

The tariffs represent a major headache for Chinese automakers like BYD that have ambitions to crack the lucrative U.S. EV market. BYD and peers like Nio have been counting on American sales to drive their global expansion efforts. The 100% tariff makes their EVs essentially uncompetitive on price compared to domestic alternatives.

However, the calculus could change if Chinese EV makers ramp up battery production and vehicle assembly closer to U.S. shores. BYD has already established a manufacturing footprint in Mexico. If more production is localized in North America, Chinese brands may be able to circumvent the duties while realizing lower logistics costs.

The impacts extend beyond just automakers. Battery material suppliers and lithium producers could face production cuts and lower pricing if Chinese EV demand softens due to fewer exports heading stateside. Major lithium producers like Albemarle and SQM saw shares dip as the tariff news increased global oversupply fears.

But if U.S. electric vehicle adoption accelerates in response to the import barriers, it could create new demand for lithium and other battery materials from domestic sources, analysts note. North American miners and processors may emerge as beneficiaries as automakers look to localize their supply chains.

Of course, trade disputes cut both ways. There are risks that China could retaliate against major U.S. exports or American companies operating in the country. That creates potential headwinds for a wide range of U.S. multinationals like Apple, Boeing, and Starbucks that rely on Chinese production and consumption. Any tit-for-tat actions could ripple across the global economy.

The levies also raise costs across EV supply chains at a vulnerable time. With inflation already depressing consumer demand, pricier batteries and components could curb the pace of electrification both in the U.S. and globally if passed along to car buyers. Conversely, domestic automakers have leeway to absorb higher input expenses to gain market share from Chinese imports.

With EV competition heating up between the world’s two largest economies, investors will need to scrupulously analyze potential winners and losers from the unfolding trade battle across the electric auto ecosystem. In the near-term, the tariffs appear to boost American legacy automakers while putting China’s crop of upstart EV makers on the defensive. Global battery and mineral suppliers face an uncertain shake-up.

Over the longer haul, costs, capital outlays, production geography, and consumer demand dynamics will ultimately determine the fallout’s enduring market impacts. The new levies represent a double-edged sword potentially accelerating the EV transition in the U.S. while fracturing previously integrated cross-border supply lines.

Prudent investors should weigh both the risks and opportunities across the entire EV value chain. While headline-grabbing, tariffs alone won’t determine winners and losers in the seismic shift to electric mobility taking shape globally. Proactively adjusting portfolios to the changing landscape will be crucial for optimizing exposures.

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Release – Ocugen Set to Join Russell 3000® Index Effective June 28, 2024

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on OCGN

MALVERN, Pa., May 28, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ocugen, Inc. (Ocugen or the Company) (NASDAQ: OCGN), a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines, today announced its expected upcoming inclusion in the Russell 3000® Index, according to preliminary Russell reconstruction information posted on the FTSE Russell website. The newly reconstructed index will take effect after the market closes on June 28, 2024.

“Inclusion of Ocugen to the Russell 3000® Index is our latest milestone, adding to what has already been a transformational year for the Company with three of our game-changing modifier gene therapies targeting blindness diseases—both rare and those affecting millions—in clinical trials,” said Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Chairman, CEO, and Co-founder of Ocugen. “This ranking signifies the value of our pipeline, including the recently initiated Phase 3 liMeliGhT clinical trial of OCU400 for broad retinitis pigmentosa, and robust growth strategy, supporting our efforts to enable long-term shareholder value, garner significant visibility of Ocugen within the investment community, and broaden our shareholder base.”

The annual Russell 3000® Index reconstitution measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 96% of the investable U.S. equity market as of Tuesday, April 30.

Membership in the U.S. Russell 3000® remains in place for one year and means automatic inclusion in the appropriate growth and value style indexes. FTSE Russell determines membership for its Russell indexes primarily by objective, market-capitalization rankings, and style attributes.

Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors for index funds and as benchmarks for active investment strategies. Russell’s U.S. indexes serve as the benchmark for about $10.5 trillion in assets as of the close of December 2023. Russell indexes are part of FTSE Russell, a leading global index provider.

About FTSE Russell:
FTSE Russell is a leading global provider of benchmarking, analytics, and data solutions for investors, giving them a precise view of the market relevant to their investment process. A comprehensive range of reliable and accurate indexes provides investors worldwide with the tools they require to measure and benchmark markets across asset classes, styles, or strategies.

FTSE Russell index expertise and products are used extensively by institutional and retail investors globally. For over 30 years, leading asset owners, asset managers, ETF providers and investment banks have chosen FTSE Russell indexes to benchmark their investment performance and create ETFs, structured products, and index-based derivatives.

FTSE Russell is focused on applying the highest industry standards in index design and governance, employing transparent rules-based methodology informed by independent committees of leading market participants. FTSE Russell fully embraces the IOSCO Principles, and its Statement of Compliance has received independent assurance. Index innovation is driven by client needs and customer partnerships, allowing FTSE Russell to continually enhance the breadth, depth and reach of its offering.

FTSE Russell is wholly owned by London Stock Exchange Group. For more information, visit: https://www.lseg.com/en/ftse-russell.

About Ocugen, Inc.
Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines that improve health and offer hope for patients across the globe. We are making an impact on patient’s lives through courageous innovation—forging new scientific paths that harness our unique intellectual and human capital. Our breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with a single product, and we are advancing research in infectious diseases to support public health and orthopedic diseases to address unmet medical needs. Discover more at www.ocugen.com and follow us on X and LinkedIn.

Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, but not limited to, statements regarding the Company’s expected inclusion in the Russell 3000 ® Index, qualitative assessments of available data, potential benefits, expectations for ongoing clinical trials, anticipated regulatory filings and anticipated development timelines, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We may, in some cases, use terms such as “predicts,” “believes,” “potential,” “proposed,” “continue,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “may,” “could,” “might,” “will,” “should,” or other words that convey uncertainty of future events or outcomes to identify these forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to numerous important factors, risks, and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ materially from our current expectations, including, but not limited to, the risks that changes may be made to the preliminary Russell reconstruction lists prior to finalization, that preliminary, interim and top-line clinical trial results may not be indicative of, and may differ from, final clinical data; that unfavorable new clinical trial data may emerge in ongoing clinical trials or through further analyses of existing clinical trial data; that earlier non-clinical and clinical data and testing of may not be predictive of the results or success of later clinical trials; and that that clinical trial data are subject to differing interpretations and assessments, including by regulatory authorities. These and other risks and uncertainties are more fully described in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the risk factors described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the quarterly and annual reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release. Except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements contained in this press release whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, after the date of this press release.

Contact:
Tiffany Hamilton
Head of Communications
Tiffany.Hamilton@ocugen.com

Russell Reconstitution 2024: The Ultimate Guide to This Year’s Index Shake-Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The annual Russell reconstitution is one of the biggest events in the investing world, shaping the composition of the widely followed Russell indexes, including the influential Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. This comprehensive process ensures these indexes accurately represent various U.S. market segments by reflecting changes in company market capitalizations and characteristics.

What is the Russell Reconstitution?
The Russell reconstitution is an annual rebalancing process where all Russell equity indexes undergo a complete overhaul. During reconstitution, the index provider FTSE Russell rebuilds the Russell indexes from the ground up based on new data on eligible stocks’ market caps, trading volumes, and other criteria.

This vital event maintains the integrity of Russell indexes as accurate benchmarks by updating their holdings to reflect the current landscape of the U.S. stock market. Reconstitution allows companies that have grown or shrunk in value to be properly represented in the appropriate Russell indexes.

The Importance of the Russell 3000 Index
A major focus of the reconstitution is the Russell 3000 Index, considered one of the leading benchmarks for the overall U.S. equity market. This index aims to capture 98% of U.S. stocks by market cap.

On May 24, 2024, FTSE Russell published its annual reconstitution updates, revealing notable new additions to the Russell 3000 like Ocugen, Eledon Pharmaceuticals, NN Inc., and Bitcoin Depot. Such changes highlight how reconstitution allows the index to evolve with the market.

The Closely Watched Russell 2000 Index
Another keenly watched Russell index is the small-cap Russell 2000, which tracks the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 by market cap. This index is considered a leading benchmark for small-cap U.S. stocks.

During reconstitution, companies can move in or out of the Russell 2000 based on changes to their market capitalization or investment style exposures like value vs growth. This rebalancing ensures the Russell 2000 precisely represents today’s small-cap universe.

IPO Additions Throughout the Year
In addition to the annual reset, FTSE Russell regularly adds eligible IPO stocks to its indexes on a quarterly basis. This allows newly public companies to quickly enter major benchmarks like the Russell 3000 instead of waiting for reconstitution.

Russell’s IPO treatment distinguishes between fully underwritten IPOs and partial or “best efforts” public offerings when determining appropriate share weights and eligibility.

Rebalancing Drives Major Trading Activity
Russell reconstitution is a major trading event, as index funds and ETFs tracking Russell benchmarks must rebalance their portfolios to match updated index constituents and weightings.

Estimates suggest hundreds of billions in assets follow the Russell benchmarks, meaning their reconstitution announcements can trigger massive shifts in demand for newly added or removed stocks.

Following Russell’s Transparent Methodology
FTSE Russell’s reconstitution process follows an objective, rules-based methodology spelled out in publicly available documentation. Key eligibility factors include:

  • Trading on eligible U.S. stock exchanges
  • Meeting minimum price, market cap, and liquidity thresholds
  • Sufficient public share float and voting rights
  • Eligible corporate structures like public operating companies

Staying on top of Russell’s transparent reconstitution rules allows investors to understand how index changes may impact their portfolios and positions.

The Russell Reconstitution’s Continuing Impact
As indexes like the Russell 3000 continue gaining prominence as core portfolio benchmarks, Russell reconstitution’s influence grows. The 2024 event reinforces the Russell indexes’ role in definitively capturing U.S. market performance by surgery evolving index holdings to match current realities.

Whether reallocating client assets, developing new index funds, or simply understanding market composition changes, the 2024 Russell reconstitution guide will prove essential reading for investors. Follow this yearly event closely, as it shapes the benchmarks driving U.S. equity allocations for years to come.

Upcoming 2024 Russell Reconstitution Schedule

Friday, May 31st, June 7th, 14th, and 21st – Preliminary membership lists (reflecting any updates) posted to the FTSE Russell website after 6PM US eastern time.

Monday, June 10th – “Lock-down” period begins with the updates to reconstitution membership considered to be final.

Friday, June 28th – Russell Reconstitution is final after the close of the US equity markets.

Monday, July 1st – Equity markets open with the newly reconstituted Russell US Indexes.

Bitcoin Mining Showdown: Riot Platforms’ Power Play for Bitfarms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a bold move that could significantly reshape the cryptocurrency mining industry, Riot Platforms Inc. has made an unsolicited offer to acquire rival Bitcoin miner Bitfarms Ltd. for $950 million. This acquisition bid, which includes both cash and stock, values Bitfarms at $2.30 per share, a 20% premium over its pre-offer trading price. Riot’s aggressive strategy is driven by recent industry dynamics and Bitfarms’ internal challenges, and it has the potential to profoundly impact the Bitcoin mining landscape.

Riot Platforms, already a major player in the Bitcoin mining sector, has taken a 9.25% stake in Bitfarms, making it the largest shareholder. This move follows Bitfarms’ management turmoil, including the firing of interim CEO Geoffrey Morphy, who is now suing the company for $27 million in damages. Riot’s initial offer, made on April 22, was rejected by Bitfarms’ board without substantive dialogue. Undeterred, Riot plans to call a shareholder meeting to appoint new independent directors, signaling a clear intention to influence Bitfarms’ strategic direction.

The proposed acquisition highlights a significant trend in the Bitcoin mining sector: consolidation. This trend has been accelerated by the recent Bitcoin “halving,” an event that occurs approximately every four years and cuts the rewards miners receive for validating transactions by 50%. This reduction in rewards tightens margins and pushes miners to either scale operations or seek consolidation to maintain profitability.

For Riot, absorbing Bitfarms would create the largest Bitcoin miner globally, based on projected computing power growth. This expansion would significantly enhance Riot’s Bitcoin production capabilities, positioning it alongside industry giants like Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. and CleanSpark Inc. The increased scale and capacity would provide Riot with greater negotiating power, more efficient operations, and improved resilience against market fluctuations and rising energy costs.

Riot’s pursuit of Bitfarms sends a clear message to other players in the Bitcoin mining space: scale is essential for survival and success in the post-halving era. Smaller miners, already struggling with reduced revenues and limited access to capital, may find it increasingly challenging to compete against larger, resource-rich companies. This could trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions as miners seek to consolidate resources, optimize operations, and leverage economies of scale.

For instance, Bitcoin miner Stronghold Digital Mining Inc. is already exploring strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. As the industry adapts to the new economic realities imposed by the halving, more companies might follow suit, either by seeking mergers or becoming acquisition targets themselves.

The consolidation trend among Bitcoin miners has broader implications for the cryptocurrency industry. Firstly, it could lead to increased centralization of mining power, potentially raising concerns about the decentralization ethos of Bitcoin. However, it could also result in more efficient and stable mining operations, reducing the risk of disruptions and enhancing the overall security and reliability of the Bitcoin network.

Moreover, large-scale miners like Riot, with significant resources and capacity, are better positioned to adopt sustainable practices and negotiate favorable energy contracts, potentially addressing some of the environmental criticisms faced by the industry.

Riot Platforms’ bid to acquire Bitfarms marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of Bitcoin mining. This strategic move underscores the importance of scale in navigating the post-halving landscape and sets the stage for further consolidation in the industry. For investors and stakeholders in the cryptocurrency space, this development highlights the dynamic and competitive nature of Bitcoin mining, where agility, resources, and strategic vision are key to thriving in an ever-evolving market. As the industry continues to mature, the actions of major players like Riot will undoubtedly shape the future of cryptocurrency mining and its role within the broader financial ecosystem.

Take a moment to take a look at Bit Digital, a large-scale bitcoin mining business with operations across the U.S. and Canada.

Ether ETFs Get Green Light, Ushering In New Era for Crypto Investing

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The crypto world was abuzz this week as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light for the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that will track the price of ether, the cryptocurrency powering the Ethereum blockchain.

In a little-noticed release on Thursday evening, the SEC approved a rule change by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that effectively opens the door for ether ETFs to be listed and traded just like their bitcoin counterparts.

This landmark decision represents a major milestone for the crypto industry’s evolution into mainstream finance. It grants ether, after years of regulatory ambiguity, a legitimacy akin to that bestowed upon bitcoin last year when the first bitcoin ETFs hit the market.

“This is a huge development that really drives home ether’s commodity status from a regulatory perspective,” said Rachel Lin, CEO of crypto derivatives platform SynFutures. “It will allow investors, from retail to institutional, to gain exposure to ether through a regulated, familiar investment vehicle.”

Ether is the second-largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin with a market cap of around $220 billion. It has rapidly emerged as a crucial piece of infrastructure undergirding large swaths of crypto and blockchain applications beyond just a medium of exchange.

The Ethereum network hosts a multitude of decentralized apps and services, including large stablecoin ecosystems, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms for lending/borrowing, and a rapidly expanding universe of blockchain-based games and metaverse projects. All these rely on ether as the “gas” that powers the network.

Major crypto companies quickly celebrated the ruling as catalyzing new growth for the ecosystem. “This approval from the SEC will allow millions of investors to embrace crypto in a familiar, regulated way,” said David Puth, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange CoinX.

The decision paves the way for asset managers to launch ether ETFs that directly hold the cryptocurrency, similar to existing bitcoin offerings like the Bitcoin ETF. This could drive significant new investment into ether from both institutional players seeking crypto exposure without holding the underlying asset, as well as retail investors who want a simple ether investment product available in traditional brokerage accounts.

However, some key questions remain around which specific ETF proposals will get approved, when they might begin trading, and whether they will be physically-backed with actual ether or employ indirect exposure through derivatives.

Leading ETF issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and WisdomTree have active filings for ether ETFs that could get a look. But smaller players like Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest were among the first movers on bitcoin ETF filings and could be better positioned for any initial ether product launches as well.

While the ether ETFs have a regulatory greenlight, they will still need to be approved on an individual basis by the SEC and the exchanges they list on. Industry analysts expect a speedy process, with the first launch potentially coming in the next few months.

For ether investors who have waited years for this moment, simple and convenient access to the world’s most actively utilized crypto network through traditional market infrastructure is almost at hand. The launch of ether ETFs may turbocharge investment into the Ethereum ecosystem – and accelerate the momentum behind crypto’s move into mainstream finance.

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Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – What is in Store for the Remainder of 2024?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, May 24, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Drilling to resume later in the year. Maple Gold has been undertaking a systematic compilation and review of its technical database associated with its 400 square kilometer property package. Maple Gold’s technical team is nearing completion of a new three-dimensional litho-structural model to support a focused ranking and prioritization of property-wide drill targets to be tested later this year. Maple also initiated high resolution drone magnetic surveys in selected areas which will be completed in the second quarter of 2024.

Significant depth potential at Douay. The 2022 Douay mineral resource estimate addressed optimizing complementary open-pit and underground scenarios. Resources below the pit have significant potential for expansion given the limited amount of drilling below approximately 300 meters vertical depth. Deep drilling in 2023 confirmed continuity of the mineralized system at depth. Maple Gold intends to increase the underground gold resource to two million ounces largely by drilling near and below the base of the pit.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Euroseas (ESEA) – Results below expectations on higher drydocking costs but near-term outlook still bright.

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, May 24, 2024

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Euroseas reported results below expectations mainly due to higher drydocking costs. Vessel utilization and shipping rates were near expectations. With ship repairs completed and new vessels on the way, the company is well positioned to take advantage of an improved shipping rate environment. While the existing fleet is largely chartered out, the addition of four newbuild vessels increases the company’s leverage to shipping rates. 

Management expects some shipping rate softness in 2025 due to the large number of vessel additions industry wide year to date. Shipping rates have benefitted from the conflict in the Red Sea, which has caused ships to take longer routes. Should conflicts abate, rates could weaken as decreased demand for ships is met with additional vessel supply. We would not be surprised to see management increase its 2025 charter position ahead of any weakness.

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Behind the Scenes of Biotech’s Battle for the Billion-Dollar Diet Pill

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

For biotech investors scouring for the next big opportunity, the massive manufacturing expansions underway at pharma giant Eli Lilly (LLY) are worth a close look. The company just announced another staggering $5.3 billion investment into a key production facility in Indiana to crank up supply of its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs.

This commitment brings Lilly’s total investment at the Lebanon, Indiana site to an incredible $9 billion – representing the firm’s largest-ever manufacturing bet in its nearly 150-year history. It highlights the huge demand that Lilly’s game-changing medications like Mounjaro and Zepbound are facing from physicians and patients alike.

For small biotech firms developing the next generation of weight loss, diabetes and metabolism therapies, Lilly’s supply chain moves send an important signal – this market is headed for explosive growth in the coming years. Companies sitting on promising pipeline candidates could emerge as attractive buyout targets.

At the heart of Lilly’s expansion plans are its incretin drugs, which mimic gut hormones to suppress appetite and regulate blood sugar. Mounjaro, approved for diabetes, and Zepbound, greenlit for chronic weight management, both contain the active ingredient tirzepatide.

Since their launches, demand for these effective and convenient once-weekly injectable treatments has far outstripped supply. Shortages have been widespread in the U.S. as Lilly raced to build out its production infrastructure.

The new $9 billion Indiana campus will be instrumental in increasing Lilly’s capacity to manufacture tirzepatide at scale. When fully operational in 2028, it will employ around 900 skilled workers including scientists, engineers and technicians.

But this plant is just one piece of Lilly’s supply chain mobilization for incretin drugs. Since 2020, the company has plowed over $18 billion into building, acquiring and expanding manufacturing sites in the U.S. and Europe. New facilities are also coming online in North Carolina, Ireland and Germany through 2026.

These investments are already paying dividends. On its latest earnings call, Lilly hiked its 2023 revenue guidance by $2 billion, citing greater visibility into ramping up production of Mounjaro, Zepbound and its incretin pipeline over the remainder of the year.

For small biotechs, the supply chain frenzy at Lilly underscores the commercial opportunity in obesity, diabetes and metabolism. With over 40% of U.S. adults classified as obese, safe and effective chronic weight management regimens like Lilly’s incretin franchise could disrupt a massive global market worth billions annually.

Take a moment to look at more emerging growth biotechnology companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

The manufacturing expansions suggest appetite for these therapies will continue to surge, fueling demand for the next generation of medications offering better efficacy, tolerability and dosing schedules. Smaller drug developers operating in this space could become prime M&A candidates as deep-pocketed pharmas look to build out their obesity and diabetes portfolios.

Case in point: Lilly itself acquired Zepbound through its $8 billion buyout of Protunor Biopharma in 2022. Several major deals have already reshaped the incretin drug landscape in recent years, including Pfizer’s $6.7 billion purchase of Akero Therapeutics for its NASH/diabetes pipeline.

With its bold investments, Lilly is putting its money where its mouth is when it comes to obesity and metabolic disease. For lean biotechs advancing the next wave of therapies in this booming treatment category, that could spell opportunity knocking in the form of lucrative buyout offers or partnerships down the line.

Keep an eye on this space as Lilly’s supply chain moves underscore that the fight against fat is only just beginning for the pharmaceutical industry.