slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com, Author at Channelchek

Information Services Group (III) – AI Acquisition

Posted on January 20, 2026January 20, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

AI Maturity Index. Information Services Group has acquired the AI Maturity Index, a SaaS platform that allows organizations to assess the AI readiness of their workforces and improve their employees’ ability to leverage AI technology. The AI Maturity Index provides ISG with a high-impact, scalable entry point into every client’s AI journey. In its short time on the market, the AI Maturity Index has assessed more than 6,000 individual AI users and collected more than 400,000 data points—adoption that will expand exponentially as the platform gains broader use. Terms of the deal were not released.

Acceleration. The acquisition is part of a broader AI acceleration strategy by ISG that includes the formation of an AI Acceleration Unit that brings an integrated, expert-led approach to helping clients rapidly scale AI, and the upcoming launch of a proprietary insights platform with an AI-powered “intelligence advisor” to give organizations real-time access to highly sought-after ISG data and analysis.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

Worthington Steel to Acquire Kloeckner & Co in Transformative $2.4 Billion Deal

Posted on January 20, 2026January 20, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Worthington Steel announced it has entered into a business combination agreement to acquire Germany-based Kloeckner & Co, a move that will significantly reshape the North American metals processing landscape. The all-cash transaction positions Worthington Steel as the second-largest steel service center company in North America by revenue and marks a major expansion of its global footprint.

The acquisition brings together two highly complementary metal processing businesses with a combined revenue base of approximately $9.5 billion. Kloeckner & Co operates roughly 110 service center and processing locations across North America and Europe and offers a broad range of products, including carbon flat-roll steel, electrical steel, aluminum, stainless steel, and long products. In recent years, Kloeckner has increasingly focused on higher value-added processing and fabrication, aligning closely with Worthington Steel’s strategic priorities.

Worthington Steel expects the transaction to generate approximately $150 million in annual run-rate synergies, primarily through cost efficiencies, operational improvements, and commercial optimization in North America. These synergies are anticipated to be fully realized by the end of the company’s fiscal year 2028. The deal is expected to be substantially accretive to earnings per share within the first full year of operation.

“This is a strategic and transformative step in Worthington Steel’s growth journey,” said President and CEO Geoff Gilmore. He emphasized that the combination will strengthen customer relationships, expand product offerings, and create new growth opportunities for employees, while reinforcing a shared commitment to safety, quality, and operational excellence.

The transaction values Kloeckner & Co at an enterprise value of approximately $2.4 billion, representing an EV/EBITDA multiple of about 8.5x based on trailing twelve-month results, and roughly 5.5x when factoring in expected synergies. Worthington Steel expects the combined company to maintain margins above 7% while tripling its scale in terms of sales.

The acquisition will be executed through a voluntary public tender offer in Germany, with Kloeckner shareholders receiving €11 in cash per share. The offer is supported by SWOCTEM GmbH, Kloeckner’s largest shareholder, which owns approximately 42% of outstanding shares and has committed to tender its stake. Kloeckner’s management and supervisory boards have expressed support for the transaction, and the current leadership team is expected to remain in place following completion.

Financing for the acquisition will come from a combination of cash on hand and new debt, with the offer fully underwritten and not subject to financing conditions. Worthington Steel expects pro forma net leverage to be around 4.0x at closing, with a stated goal of reducing leverage below 2.5x within 24 months through deleveraging and synergy realization.

Completion of the transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and a minimum acceptance threshold of 65% of Kloeckner’s shares, with closing expected in the second half of 2026. If completed, the deal will create a more diversified, resilient metals processing leader with expanded geographic reach across North America and Europe, positioning Worthington Steel for accelerated long-term growth.

Trump Suggests Using Trade Penalties to Pressure Support for Greenland Plan

Posted on January 16, 2026January 16, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

President Donald Trump said Friday that he may impose new tariffs on foreign countries as part of an aggressive effort to pressure allies into supporting U.S. acquisition of Greenland, once again turning to trade penalties as a geopolitical bargaining tool.

Speaking at the White House during a health care–related event, Trump framed Greenland as a national security imperative and suggested tariffs could be used against countries that resist his ambitions. “We need Greenland for national security,” Trump said. “So I may do that. I may put a tariff on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland.”

The comments mark a significant escalation in Trump’s long-running interest in acquiring the Arctic territory, which is an autonomous region of Denmark. While the U.S. already maintains a military base on the island, Trump has increasingly argued that outright ownership is necessary to counter growing influence from China and Russia in the Arctic.

The White House did not immediately clarify which countries could be targeted by the proposed tariffs or what form they might take. However, Trump’s remarks signal that trade policy may once again be deployed as leverage in diplomatic disputes, even those involving close U.S. allies.

Trump’s tariff threat comes amid mounting legal uncertainty surrounding his broader trade agenda. The president has dramatically expanded the use of tariffs since returning to office, pushing the average U.S. tariff rate to an estimated 17%. Many of these levies were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a move that has been repeatedly challenged in court.

Multiple lower courts have ruled that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA, and the issue is now before the Supreme Court. A ruling from the high court could come soon and may determine whether the administration can continue imposing wide-ranging tariffs without congressional approval. Trump has warned that his economic agenda would be severely undermined if the court rules against him.

The Greenland comments also follow Trump’s recent use of tariff threats to pressure foreign governments on pharmaceutical pricing. The president has argued that U.S. drug prices should be aligned with lower prices paid overseas and said he warned foreign leaders to raise their prices or face steep tariffs on all exports to the United States.

“I’ve done it on drugs,” Trump said Friday. “I may do it for Greenland too.”

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, both Greenland and Denmark have repeatedly rejected the idea of a sale or transfer of sovereignty. Following meetings in Washington this week with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a delegation from Greenland and Denmark said they maintain a “fundamental disagreement” with the president’s position.

Trump has also previously suggested that the U.S. is weighing multiple options to secure Greenland, including economic pressure and, in extreme rhetoric, military considerations. Those statements have alarmed European allies and raised concerns about the long-term implications for NATO unity.

As the Supreme Court weighs the legality of Trump’s tariff powers and global trade partners respond to mounting uncertainty, the president’s Greenland push underscores how central tariffs have become to his foreign policy strategy. Whether the tactic yields concessions—or further strains alliances—may soon be tested.

Ocugen (OCGN) – Preliminary Phase 2 Data From OCU410 Shows Improvements in dAMD Geographic Atrophy

Posted on January 16, 2026January 16, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, January 16, 2026

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Positive Preliminary Data From The OCU410 Trial. Ocugen announced first data from its Phase 2 ArMaDa trial testing OCU410 in Geographic Atrophy associated with dry Age-related Macular Degeneration (GA-dAMD). The announcement included the patients who have reached 12 months after treatment, with 23 out of the total 51 patients enrolled. The data shows an overall 46% reduction in lesion growth compared with controls. We see this as a highly meaningful difference.

OCU410 Is A Single-Treatment Gene Therapy. OCU410 is being developed as gene therapy for patients with GA secondary to dry AMD. A single OCU410 intravitreal injection delivers RORA (retinoid-related orphan receptor alpha), a nuclear receptor that regulates key pathways involved in retinal homeostasis with four mechanisms of action.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Some Model Refinements

Posted on January 16, 2026January 16, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, January 16, 2026

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Model Refinements. Pre fourth quarter earnings, we went over our model and made some modest adjustments, as well as incorporated 2026 quarterly estimates. With the strong new contract awards in 2025, increased detention populations, and potential for additional awards in 2026, we believe CoreCivic is well positioned to post strong 2026 full year results.

Populations Continue to Rise. Overall, the ICE detainee population continues to increase, hitting just under 69,000 at year-end. This is up from approximately 39,000 at the end of 2024. We expect to see ICE detainee populations continue to increase over the course of 2026 as ICE brings on additional enforcement personnel. Increased populations bode well for CoreCivic.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT) – Acquires Formidable Technology Company

Posted on January 16, 2026January 16, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, January 16, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Dynamic acquisition. On December 31, 2025, the company acquired Endstate, a technology company focused on NFC-enabled authentication, digital product identity, and authenticated resale infrastructure for physical goods. Following the acquisition, the company formed a new wholly owned subsidiary, Endstate Authentic LLC. Details of the acquisition were not disclosed.

Vinyl is just the start. Notably, the Endstate technology is currently used by Alliance Authentic for the sale of limited-edition, numbered, blockchain-authenticated vinyl records and a commission-based secondary marketplace that is expected to generate high-margin recurring revenue. Importantly, while the company currently only offers vinyl on this platform, we believe there is a significant opportunity for product category growth, given the company’s large selection of physical media and collectables.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Mortgage Rates Drop to Three-Year Low Following Trump’s $200 Billion Bond Purchase Plan

Posted on January 15, 2026January 15, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a dramatic market shift that caught many economists off guard, mortgage rates have tumbled to their lowest point since September 2022, following President Trump’s bold announcement that government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.06% this week, down from 6.16% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. The 15-year rate similarly declined to 5.38% from 5.46%, marking a significant milestone for prospective homebuyers and homeowners considering refinancing.

The president’s January 8th social media post declaring he was “instructing my Representatives to BUY $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS” sent immediate ripples through financial markets. The announcement specifically targeted mortgage-backed securities, driving up demand for these bonds and subsequently pushing their yields downward—a direct pathway to lower consumer mortgage rates.

Market response was swift and substantial. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 16% surge in home purchase applications and a remarkable 40% jump in refinancing applications through the following Friday. These numbers suggest Americans are eager to capitalize on improved borrowing conditions after years of elevated rates that have kept many potential buyers sidelined.

“With mortgage rates much lower than a year ago and edging closer to 6 percent, MBA expects strong interest from homeowners seeking a refinance and would-be buyers stepping off the sidelines,” said Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

However, industry experts are tempering expectations about a rapid housing market recovery. While lower rates provide relief, significant affordability challenges persist. Home prices remain elevated in many markets, and a substantial number of existing homeowners hold mortgages with rates far below current levels—creating what economists call the “lock-in effect” that discourages moving.

Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, projects mortgage rates will hover in the low-6% range throughout 2026, potentially supporting “modestly improving home sales.” Yet she emphasizes that any recovery will likely be “gradual rather than rapid” given persistent affordability constraints.

The policy move represents an unconventional approach to economic stimulus, directly targeting housing market conditions through government-sponsored enterprise balance sheets. While the immediate effect on rates has been clear, longer-term implications for the housing market, federal housing finance policy, and the broader economy remain subjects of intense debate among economists and policy analysts.

For now, Americans looking to enter the housing market or refinance existing mortgages have a window of opportunity that hasn’t existed since rates began their historic climb in late 2022.

Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF) – Preparing for Growth: Expanding Milling Capacity

Posted on January 15, 2026January 15, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Upsized Private Placement Financing. Due to strong support from shareholders and new institutional investors, Nicola Mining upsized its previously announced non-brokered private placement from C$1.0 million to C$3.0 million with the issuance of up to a total of ~3.3 million units at a price of C$0.90 per unit, including ~1.1 million issued during the first closing on the same terms. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at a price of C$1.10 per share for a period of three years following the closing of the offering. The expiry of the warrants may be accelerated subject to certain conditions.

Use of Proceeds. Nicola’s Merritt Mill is the sole facility in British Columbia permitted to receive and process third-party gold and silver feed from across the province. Funds generated from the financing will be used for the purchase and installation of milling equipment to expand Merritt Mill processing capacity from ~200 tonnes per day to ~500 tonnes per day, the addition of a secondary ball mill, supplementary cleaner flotation cells, and associated pumping infrastructure. Spare bowl and mantle assemblies may be procured to support routine crusher maintenance and ensure operational reliability.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Taiwan’s $500 Billion Chip Deal: A Game-Changer for Small and Mid-Cap Suppliers

Posted on January 15, 2026January 15, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The semiconductor industry just witnessed what could be its most significant announcement in decades. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed Thursday that Taiwan has committed to a staggering $500 billion investment in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing—$250 billion from Taiwanese companies and another $250 billion from the island’s government. For investors focused on small and mid-cap stocks, this massive capital deployment represents a potential goldmine of opportunities that extends far beyond the headline-grabbing chip manufacturers.

While giants like TSMC will dominate news coverage, the real story for small-cap investors lies in the extensive supply chain required to build and operate semiconductor fabrication facilities. Each new fab requires specialized equipment manufacturers, chemical suppliers, industrial gas producers, precision tooling companies, and advanced materials providers—many of which operate in the small to mid-cap range. Companies producing ultra-pure chemicals, photoresist materials, silicon wafers, and specialty gases could see order books expand dramatically. The construction phase alone will create demand for specialized contractors, clean room equipment manufacturers, and industrial automation providers that may currently fly under Wall Street’s radar.

The scale of this investment means new facilities will require substantial infrastructure development. Regional utilities, water treatment specialists, and industrial real estate developers in semiconductor-friendly states like Arizona, Texas, and Ohio stand to benefit significantly. Small-cap engineering firms with expertise in fab construction and environmental systems could see their prospects transform overnight. The ongoing operational needs of these facilities create sustained demand for maintenance services, logistics providers, and specialized workforce training companies—sectors where nimble mid-market players often excel.

Semiconductor manufacturing requires thousands of specialized components and systems. While industry leaders like Applied Materials and Lam Research will capture major contracts, numerous smaller suppliers provide niche equipment for testing, metrology, wafer handling, and process control. These companies often trade at more attractive valuations than their large-cap counterparts while offering leveraged exposure to industry growth. The hiring demands from a $500 billion investment will be extraordinary as well. Technical staffing agencies, specialized recruiters, and workforce development companies could experience substantial growth. Communities hosting these facilities will need expanded housing, services, and infrastructure—benefiting regional banks, homebuilders, and service providers in those markets.

Savvy small-cap investors should begin identifying companies with existing relationships in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly those with capacity to scale rapidly. Look for firms with proprietary technologies, high switching costs, and strong balance sheets capable of supporting growth. However, investors should remain mindful of execution risks. Not all suppliers will secure contracts, and the timeline for this investment will likely span years rather than quarters. Patience and selectivity will be essential.

Taiwan’s historic commitment to U.S. semiconductor manufacturing represents more than geopolitical realignment—it’s a catalyst that could reshape the small and mid-cap investment landscape for the next decade. While mega-cap chip stocks may grab headlines, the most compelling risk-reward opportunities often emerge further down the supply chain, where smaller companies can leverage this unprecedented capital influx into outsized growth. For investors willing to dig deeper, the $500 billion question isn’t just about chips—it’s about identifying tomorrow’s winners today.

Metals at Record Highs: A Warning Sign for the Economy?

Posted on January 15, 2026January 15, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

When virtually every metal on the commodities board flashes red-hot price signals simultaneously, savvy investors know to pay attention. Today’s market presents exactly that scenario, with precious and industrial metals alike reaching or approaching all-time highs—a phenomenon that historically precedes significant economic turbulence.

Gold continues setting fresh records, trading around $4,650 per ounce today after gaining roughly 73% over the past year. But gold’s ascent tells only part of the story. Silver has exploded to around $92 per ounce, marking an extraordinary 200% year-over-year surge. Platinum has climbed to approximately $2,411 per ounce, up 158% from last year, while palladium has nearly doubled, rising about 100% to trade near $1,907 per ounce.

The industrial metals complex mirrors this feverish activity. Copper smashed through $13,300 per metric ton today, marking a 38-40% year-over-year gain and setting new all-time highs. The surge reflects both AI-driven infrastructure demand and tariff-induced inventory stockpiling, with U.S. COMEX inventories ballooning from under 100,000 metric tons to over 500,000 metric tons in just one year.

When both safe-haven metals and industrial commodities rally simultaneously, it signals a dangerous market dynamic. Precious metals typically surge when investors flee traditional assets, seeking refuge from inflation, currency devaluation, or geopolitical instability. Industrial metals, conversely, usually rise on strong economic demand. Their concurrent ascent suggests investors are hedging against economic chaos while supply disruptions create artificial scarcity.

Base metal prices fall by around 30% on average during recessions, according to analysis from major financial institutions. The current recession risk for 2025 stands at 60%, with tariff-driven cuts to economic growth forecasts prompting analysts to turn bearish on near-term base metals prices. The mining sector itself appears to be pricing in recessionary conditions already.

The rally’s drivers paint a troubling picture. Supply disruptions from mining accidents and labor strikes have constrained copper output globally. Federal Reserve independence concerns following a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell have driven safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, geopolitical flashpoints from Venezuela to Iran add fuel to the fire. Central bank gold purchases and rate cut expectations signal policymakers’ own concerns about economic stability.

History offers a stark lesson. Similar across-the-board metal rallies preceded the 2008 financial crisis and the early 1980s stagflation. When prices become untethered from fundamental demand and instead reflect fear, speculation, and monetary desperation, corrections inevitably follow—often accompanied by broader economic pain.

For small-cap investors, this environment demands defensive positioning. Companies with strong balance sheets, minimal commodity exposure, and recession-resistant business models deserve premium valuations. The metals market is flashing a warning sign that prudent investors ignore at their peril.

U.S. Tariff Revenue Falls Sharply in December as Trade Volumes Continue to Reset

Posted on January 14, 2026January 14, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. tariff revenue declined sharply in December, offering fresh evidence that President Trump’s aggressive trade policies are reshaping global commerce and slowing the flow of goods into American ports. A new report from the U.S. Treasury released Tuesday showed that $27.89 billion in tariff revenue was collected in December, nearly $3 billion less than in November and more than 10% below the October peak.

The December figure caps off a historically lucrative year for tariff collections, with total revenue reaching $264.05 billion in 2025—an unprecedented annual haul. However, it also marks the second consecutive monthly decline after the Trump administration rolled back or adjusted key tariffs late last year. October saw the highest monthly intake at $31.35 billion, followed by $30.76 billion in November before the more pronounced drop in December.

The downturn in tariff revenue reflects broader shifts in U.S. trade flows. Commerce Department data released alongside the Treasury report showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in November, the lowest level since mid-2009. While the data was delayed due to last fall’s government shutdown, it underscores a clear trend: less trade activity involving the United States, driven largely by sweeping tariff measures.

Administration officials have framed the shrinking trade deficit as a major policy success. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently credited President Trump’s trade agenda for the improvement, noting that the deficit has fallen back to levels not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. When Trump introduced his tariff regime earlier in the year, monthly customs revenues surged dramatically, rising from just $7.25 billion in February and climbing steadily through October.

Yet the recent step-down in revenue highlights the limits of tariffs as a long-term funding source. The Congressional Budget Office has already slashed its projected tariff receipts for the coming decade by roughly $1 trillion, suggesting that trade volumes are adjusting downward faster than policymakers initially anticipated. This has implications for Trump’s broader fiscal ambitions, many of which have leaned heavily on tariff income.

The president has repeatedly suggested that tariffs could fund a wide range of priorities, from tax cuts to infrastructure to national defense. Most recently, Trump argued that tariffs could support a proposed $500 billion annual increase in the U.S. military budget—a figure that exceeds twice the total tariff revenue collected in all of 2025.

Meanwhile, uncertainty continues to loom over global trade in 2026. The White House has issued new tariff threats, including a proposed 25% levy on goods from any country doing business with Iran. At the same time, a closely watched Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump’s broad “blanket” tariffs could arrive as early as this week.

Trade data underscores the scale of the shift already underway. Shipping analytics firm Project44 reported that U.S. imports from China fell 28% in 2025, while U.S. exports to China dropped 38%, describing the change as one of the sharpest bilateral trade contractions in recent history. While shipping volumes appear to be stabilizing, they are doing so at a markedly lower level.

As the U.S. recalibrates its trade posture, the rest of the world is moving in a different direction. The European Union recently approved a landmark free-trade agreement with Mercosur nations in Latin America, creating one of the world’s largest trade blocs and highlighting a growing divergence in global trade strategies.

Oil Prices Surge to Two-Month High as Iran Tensions Threaten Global Energy Markets

Posted on January 14, 2026January 14, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil markets are experiencing their sharpest rally in months as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran send shockwaves through global energy trading. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have climbed more than 10% over the past week, with prices reaching levels not seen since October.

The rally comes as widespread protests continue to rock Iran, prompting President Trump to warn that the country’s ruling regime would face serious consequences. This marks a significant shift in market attention from Venezuela, where oil shipments have recently resumed, back to Iran—what energy experts are calling the nerve center of global oil markets.

Iran’s position in the global oil landscape is uniquely influential for two critical reasons. First, the country produces over 3 million barrels daily and exports approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. Beyond current production, Iran sits atop more than 200 billion barrels of proven reserves, ranking third globally behind only Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Unlike Venezuelan crude, Iran’s lighter, medium-weight oil is easier to refine and more desirable for buyers.

Second, and perhaps more critically, Iran largely controls the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway that serves as one of the world’s most vital oil chokepoints. Roughly 20 million barrels per day, representing about 25% of global seaborne petroleum trade, flows through this strategic passage. Any closure or disruption would immediately send prices soaring.

Historical precedent underscores this vulnerability. When Israeli forces struck Iranian military and nuclear sites last June, Brent crude jumped 7% in a single day despite the Strait never actually closing.

Energy analysts warn that sustained civil unrest could disrupt Iran’s oil infrastructure. Widespread upheaval might prevent skilled workers from reaching production and export facilities, while basic services like electricity could become unreliable. Experts suggest at least limited production interruptions are likely if tensions continue escalating.

A worst-case scenario would mirror the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when political upheaval cut the country’s oil production nearly in half—from over 5.7 million barrels per day to just 3.2 million barrels. While analysts consider a complete production collapse unlikely, even partial disruptions would significantly impact global supplies.

The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Tehran, announcing immediate 25% tariffs on any country conducting business with Iran. The president has also signaled support for protesters facing violent crackdowns that have reportedly killed thousands amid internet blackouts.

China, which purchases more than 80% of Iranian crude, would feel immediate effects from any export disruptions. Chinese refiners might shift demand toward Russian oil or tap domestic reserves that Beijing has been stockpiling as geopolitical insurance.

Despite the price spike, some analysts urge caution. The global oil market currently faces a supply glut of approximately 3.6 million barrels per day, which could absorb moderate disruptions. However, trading activity tells a different story—Monday saw record volume in Brent crude call options as traders hedge against sudden price spikes, while volatility indicators have reached their highest levels since last summer’s strikes.

For now, markets remain on edge, closely watching whether Iran’s internal turmoil will translate into the sustained supply disruption that could send prices substantially higher.

U.S. Inflation Cools in December as Core Prices Rise at Slowest Pace Since 2021

Posted on January 13, 2026January 13, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. inflation showed further signs of cooling in December, offering fresh evidence that price pressures across the economy are continuing to moderate as the year comes to a close. According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core consumer prices rose at their slowest annual pace since March 2021, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady in the near term.

On a core basis—excluding the volatile food and energy categories—prices increased 0.2% from November and rose 2.6% compared with a year earlier. That annual reading matched November’s figure and marked the weakest pace of core inflation in nearly five years. Headline inflation, which includes all categories, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, in line with economists’ expectations.

While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target, the steady downward trend over the past year has eased concerns that elevated prices could derail economic growth. Policymakers have increasingly signaled that inflation now poses less of a threat than a potential slowdown in the labor market, a view supported by recent economic data.

Economists pointed to signs that underlying inflation pressures are genuinely cooling. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, noted that December’s softer core reading came despite some price rebounds following unusually weak data in October and November. This, he said, suggests that inflation momentum has meaningfully slowed rather than temporarily paused.

The CPI report follows last week’s December jobs data, which showed the unemployment rate pulling back from a four-year high. Together, the inflation and labor market reports have strengthened investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its January 27–28 policy meeting. Futures market data from CME Group now indicate a roughly 95% probability that rates will remain steady.

A closer look at the report revealed mixed price trends for households. Food inflation remained a notable pressure point, with food prices rising 0.7% in December, outpacing overall inflation. Five of the six major grocery store food categories posted monthly increases, including grains, dairy, fruits, and beverages. Only meat prices declined, slipping 0.2% during the month.

Offsetting some of those pressures were declines in several key core categories. Used car and truck prices fell 1.7% in December, while airline fares dropped 0.5%. Transportation services overall also declined by 0.5%, helping keep core inflation contained.

Energy prices provided additional relief. Gasoline prices plunged 5.3% in December amid falling oil prices, contributing to a 2% monthly decline in the energy index. These declines helped temper headline inflation despite higher food costs.

Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic described the report as “very encouraging,” adding that it supports expectations that lingering tariff-related pressures on goods prices will fade in 2026. As inflation continues to cool and economic growth remains resilient, markets and policymakers alike appear increasingly confident that the worst of the inflation surge is firmly in the past.