Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil Markets Rocked by OPEC+ Decision, US Tariffs, and Geopolitical Shifts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– OPEC+ surprises market with planned April output increase of 138,000 barrels per day
– US imposes new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering potential trade tensions
– Micro-cap energy stocks face potential volatility and consolidation opportunities

The global oil market is experiencing a pivotal moment that demands close scrutiny from energy sector investors. OPEC+ has recently confirmed a planned April output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, a decision that has immediately rippled through global energy markets. The financial implications are significant: Brent futures dropped 1.45% to $70.58 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.07% to $67.64, signaling a complex and potentially challenging investment landscape.

The current market dynamics are further complicated by a series of aggressive trade policies implemented by the U.S. administration. New tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with increased Chinese import tariffs from 10% to 20%, are creating a multilayered challenge for energy companies across the value chain. These policy shifts are particularly consequential for smaller energy firms that may lack the financial buffers of larger, more established corporations.

For investors focusing on small and micro-cap energy stocks, the current market presents a nuanced investment environment. The compressed profit margins resulting from these market conditions are likely to accelerate sector consolidation. Companies with robust balance sheets, operational efficiency, and strategic adaptability will be best positioned to weather this volatility.

Commodity market experts provide critical insights into these trends. Darren Lim from Phillip Nova emphasizes that the current market is being driven by a combination of OPEC+ output decisions and new tariff implementations. Goldman Sachs analysts offer additional perspective, noting that Russia’s oil flows remain more constrained by production targets than existing sanctions, with potential downside risks to oil price forecasts.

The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity to the investment calculus. President Trump’s recent pause in Ukraine military aid introduces additional uncertainty that could potentially reshape global oil market dynamics and existing sanctions frameworks. This geopolitical tension creates an additional variable for investors to consider when evaluating energy sector investments.

Investors in small and micro-cap energy stocks should focus on several key strategic considerations:

Fundamental Analysis: A deep dive into individual company financials is crucial. Look beyond surface-level metrics to understand each company’s true operational efficiency, debt levels, and ability to adapt to market fluctuations.

Geographical Diversification: Companies with operations across multiple regions may be better positioned to mitigate risks associated with localized economic or political challenges.

Technological Innovation: Energy firms investing in efficient extraction technologies and exploring alternative energy solutions may demonstrate greater long-term resilience.

Cost Management: In a volatile market, companies that can maintain lean operations and control production costs will have a significant competitive advantage.

While the current market presents significant challenges, it simultaneously creates opportunities for strategic investors. The potential for industry consolidation means that well-positioned companies could emerge as attractive acquisition targets or potential market leaders.

Market indicators suggest that volatility in the energy sector is likely to continue. Successful investment strategies will require a disciplined approach, continuous research, and the ability to adapt quickly to changing market conditions.

Investors should maintain a balanced perspective, recognizing that short-term market fluctuations do not necessarily indicate long-term sector performance. Careful analysis, diversification, and a forward-looking investment approach will be key to navigating these complex market dynamics.

Verb Technology Acquires AI-Powered Social Selling Platform LyveCom

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Verb Technology Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: VERB) has announced the acquisition of LyveCom, an AI-driven video commerce platform, in a move that positions its MARKET.live platform as one of the most advanced AI-powered social shopping solutions in the industry. The transaction, which is subject to standard conditions including an audit of LyveCom’s financial statements, is expected to close within 60 days. However, Phase 1 of the integration has already been completed, with the newly updated MARKET.live launching today.

The acquisition brings AI-powered technology that enables brands and merchants to deliver an omnichannel livestream shopping experience. This allows businesses to engage customers not just on the MARKET.live platform, but also across their own websites, mobile apps, and social media platforms. With AI-driven video content automation and personalized shopping experiences, the new capabilities streamline content production while expanding reach. LyveCom’s proprietary technology also allows livestreams and shoppable videos to be embedded directly onto merchant websites without affecting site speed. At the same time, content from TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube can be aggregated and repurposed into interactive shopping experiences, enhancing engagement without the need for constant content creation.

The newly enhanced MARKET.live introduces several industry-changing innovations, including one-click simulcasting that allows brands to broadcast live shopping events across multiple platforms such as TikTok Shop, Shopify’s Shop App, and their own e-commerce websites. AI-powered tools will automate video content creation, while frictionless self-serve onboarding makes it easier for millions of Shopify merchants to integrate live and shoppable video in just three clicks. Strategic partnerships with Tapcart, Klaviyo, and Recharge will further expand MARKET.live’s reach in mobile commerce and direct-to-consumer brands. Additionally, an advanced analytics hub will provide real-time insights into shopper behavior, helping merchants refine their strategies and drive conversions.

The acquisition marks a major step toward establishing VERB’s MARKET.live as a leader in livestream and AI-powered social commerce. The platform’s integration with LyveCom’s AI solutions will enhance video content personalization, automate merchandising strategies, and improve conversion rates through AI-powered predictive analytics. The company also plans to launch AI avatar live shopping hosts, which will engage audiences in real time with near-human realism.

According to a report from The Business Research Company, the global social commerce industry is projected to surpass $1.29 trillion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 13.7%. VERB’s latest move signals its intent to dominate this rapidly expanding space by setting a new standard for AI-powered interactive video commerce. CEO Rory J. Cutaia reinforced the company’s commitment to innovation, stating that the acquisition ensures MARKET.live will bridge brands, marketplaces, and social platforms in a way that enhances engagement and drives sales.

With the integration of LyveCom’s technology, MARKET.live is now positioned as the go-to platform for brands looking to future-proof their business with AI-powered video commerce. As the industry shifts toward interactive shopping experiences, VERB’s strategic expansion underscores its ambition to lead the next evolution of social commerce.

Taiwan Semiconductor to Invest $100 Billion in US Chip Manufacturing

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) plans to invest $100 billion in US chip plants over the next four years.
– The investment aligns with efforts to establish the US as a leader in artificial intelligence and semiconductor production.
– The announcement follows US tariffs on semiconductor imports and ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on foreign chip manufacturing.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is preparing to make a historic $100 billion investment in US chip manufacturing, a move expected to bolster America’s position in the global semiconductor race. President Donald Trump is set to formally announce the initiative, which aims to expand domestic production capacity over the next four years.

The investment will fund multiple new semiconductor fabrication plants, reinforcing efforts to establish the United States as a key hub for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. This move is seen as a major step in reducing US dependence on foreign chip suppliers, particularly amid growing geopolitical tensions that have raised concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, plays a crucial role in supplying semiconductors to major technology firms such as Nvidia and Apple, both of which heavily rely on cutting-edge chips for artificial intelligence applications. The company has already established a presence in the US with its Arizona-based facilities, where it committed an initial $12 billion in 2020. Since then, its investment in the region has swelled to approximately $65 billion, with plans for a third factory already in motion.

The additional $100 billion investment signals a broader commitment to US-based production, which could help mitigate risks associated with global supply chain disruptions. This initiative aligns with the Trump administration’s strategy to strengthen domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports, particularly from Asia.

President Trump has long accused Taiwan of undercutting US chip manufacturing, advocating for tariffs on semiconductor imports as part of his broader trade policy. However, the latest investment from TSMC could help reshape this dynamic by bringing production closer to home, potentially easing tensions while reinforcing economic ties between the US and Taiwan.

Industry experts view this investment as a significant step toward securing US semiconductor supply chains. The recent CHIPS and Science Act, which provides funding to semiconductor companies expanding in the US, has played a role in attracting further investment from industry leaders. In January, TSMC’s Chief Financial Officer, Wendell Huang, expressed confidence that the US government would continue supporting the company’s expansion efforts.

While TSMC’s massive investment will primarily benefit large-scale semiconductor production, smaller cap chip manufacturers may experience mixed effects. On one hand, increased competition from a well-funded industry giant could challenge their market position. However, these companies may also benefit from enhanced supply chain infrastructure, new partnership opportunities, and greater government incentives aimed at bolstering domestic production.

For investors, this development could signal a bullish outlook for the semiconductor sector. Larger players like Nvidia, Intel, and AMD may see increased demand for domestically produced chips, while smaller firms could attract interest based on their role in supporting new manufacturing initiatives. Market analysts will be watching closely to assess which companies stand to gain the most from this significant shift in semiconductor production.

The expansion of US-based semiconductor manufacturing is expected to create thousands of high-skilled jobs while positioning the country as a leader in AI-driven innovation. Analysts believe the move will help stabilize chip supply and reduce costs for American companies reliant on advanced semiconductors.

With formal announcements expected in the coming days, industry stakeholders and policymakers will closely watch how this investment unfolds. The next steps will likely involve site selection, workforce training initiatives, and government incentives to ensure the success of these new facilities.

As TSMC deepens its US footprint, the semiconductor industry braces for a transformative shift that could redefine global supply chains for years to come.

US Manufacturing Holds Steady in February Amid Tariff Concerns

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– US manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.3 in February, signaling continued but slowing growth.
– Concerns over new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China are creating uncertainty for manufacturers.
– Prices for raw materials surged to their highest levels since June 2022, potentially impacting production costs.

The US manufacturing sector remained stable in February, though concerns over looming tariffs threatened to disrupt recent gains. While the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered at 50.3—just above the threshold for expansion—key indicators such as new orders and employment showed signs of weakness.

The report indicated that while the manufacturing industry is maintaining momentum, companies are growing increasingly uneasy about potential tariffs on goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China. The uncertainty surrounding these trade policies has led to a slowdown in new orders, as customers hesitate to commit to long-term contracts.

Tariffs Fuel Uncertainty and Price Increases
Manufacturers reported that trade tensions and prospective retaliatory measures from key US partners were affecting business sentiment. Firms in the chemical and transportation equipment industries, in particular, noted disruptions caused by a lack of clear guidance on tariff implementation. The uncertainty has also impacted investment decisions, with businesses pausing expansion plans.

At the same time, prices for manufacturing inputs surged to their highest levels since June 2022. The ISM’s price index jumped to 62.4 from 54.9 in January, reflecting the growing cost of raw materials. Many manufacturers are concerned that rising costs will eventually be passed on to consumers, potentially reversing recent efforts to stabilize inflation.

Employment and Supply Chain Challenges
Employment in the sector contracted after briefly expanding in January. The manufacturing employment index fell to 47.6, suggesting that firms are pulling back on hiring in response to economic uncertainty. With weaker demand and higher costs, companies are taking a cautious approach to workforce expansion.

Supply chains, which had been recovering from disruptions in previous years, also showed signs of strain. The ISM supplier deliveries index increased to 54.5, indicating longer wait times for materials. This is typically a sign of strong demand, but in this case, it reflects supply chain bottlenecks and manufacturers front-loading inventory in anticipation of potential tariff impacts.

Looking Ahead
With the Trump administration expected to finalize tariff decisions in the coming days, manufacturers remain on edge. Industries reliant on imported steel, aluminum, and electronic components could face the greatest challenges, particularly as suppliers adjust pricing in response to trade policy changes.

The ISM report follows a series of economic data releases that suggest the US economy may have lost momentum in early 2025. Weak consumer spending, a widening goods trade deficit, and a decline in homebuilding all point to a more cautious economic outlook. Some economists now believe that GDP could contract in the first quarter.

As the manufacturing sector braces for potential headwinds, all eyes remain on the White House’s next moves regarding tariffs. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether February’s stability can be sustained or if rising costs and trade uncertainty will trigger a broader slowdown.

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Progress as Consumer Spending Dips

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Core PCE inflation eased to 2.6% annually in January, aligning with economist expectations
– Personal income surged 0.9%, more than double the forecasted 0.4% increase
– Consumer spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% despite higher incomes, as savings rate jumped to 4.6%

Inflation continued its gradual retreat in January according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, though concerns about President Trump’s tariff plans are casting a shadow over future price stability, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% for the month and 2.5% annually, while the core measure—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—maintained the same monthly increase but showed a 2.6% year-over-year rate. The annual core figure represents a meaningful step down from December’s upwardly revised 2.9%.

These figures aligned precisely with economist expectations and suggest the Fed’s aggressive interest rate campaign continues to yield results, albeit at a slower pace than policymakers might prefer. The central bank targets 2% inflation as its long-term goal.

“The inflation report was good, but we’re not done,” said Jose Rasco, chief investment officer for the Americas at HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management. “So that prudent patient Powell, as I call him, is going to remain in play, and I think he’s going to wait.”

Perhaps more surprising were the income and spending components of the report. Personal income surged 0.9% in January—more than double the 0.4% forecast—but this windfall didn’t translate to higher consumer spending. Instead, Americans reduced their expenditures by 0.2%, contradicting expectations for a slight 0.1% increase. The personal savings rate jumped to 4.6%, suggesting consumers may be growing more cautious about economic conditions.

Within the report’s details, goods prices increased 0.5%, driven by a 0.9% rise in motor vehicles and parts, along with a 2% jump in gasoline prices. Services inflation showed more restraint at 0.2%, while housing costs rose 0.3%.

The data arrives as Federal Reserve officials continue deliberating their next steps for monetary policy. In recent weeks, policymakers have expressed cautious optimism about the inflation trajectory but remain adamant about seeing more evidence that price pressures are sustainably returning to their 2% target before implementing further interest rate reductions.

Following the report’s release, financial markets modestly increased the probability of a June interest rate cut, with futures traders now seeing just over 70% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts by year-end, though odds for a third reduction have been rising in recent days.

While consumers are more familiar with the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—which showed 3% headline inflation and 3.3% core inflation in January—the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE measure because it captures a broader range of consumer spending, accounts for substitution effects when prices change, and places significantly less emphasis on housing costs.

The subdued spending figures present a curious economic paradox: despite strong income growth, consumers appear increasingly cautious. This restraint could help cool inflation further but might also signal weakening consumer confidence—the primary engine of American economic growth.

Financial markets responded positively to the report, with stock futures pointing higher and Treasury yields mostly declining, suggesting investors view the data as supporting the case for eventual monetary easing while not indicating immediate economic trouble.

Treasury Rally Pushes Yields Below 4% as Inflation Shows Signs of Cooling

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Short-term Treasury yields fell under 4% as inflation cooled and GDP forecasts weakened, boosting rate-cut expectations.
– Traders anticipate a July rate cut and over 60 basis points of relief by year-end, driving a strong February rally.
– Softer data and policy shifts have investors prioritizing economic slowdown risks over inflation fears.

A powerful rally in U.S. Treasuries has slashed short-term bond yields below 4% for the first time since October, sparked by cooling inflation and shaky economic growth signals. Investors are piling into bets that the Federal Reserve will soon lower interest rates, possibly as early as midyear, giving the bond market a jolt of momentum.

The rally gained steam on Friday as yields on two- and three-year Treasury notes dropped by up to six basis points. This followed a disappointing January personal spending report and a steep revision in the Atlanta Fed’s first-quarter GDP estimate, which nosedived to -1.5% from a prior 2.3%. Even the less volatile 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.22%, its lowest since December, signaling broad market confidence in a softer economic outlook.

This month, Treasuries are poised for their biggest gain since July, with a key bond index climbing 1.7% through Thursday. That’s the strongest yearly start since 2020, up 2.2% so far. Analysts attribute the surge to a wave of lackluster economic data over the past week, flipping the script on expectations that the Fed might hold rates steady indefinitely.

Market players are now anticipating a quarter-point rate cut by July, with over 60 basis points of easing baked in by December. The latest personal consumption expenditures data for January, showing inflation easing as expected, has fueled this shift. Investors see it as a green light for the Fed to pivot toward supporting growth rather than just wrestling price pressures.

Still, some warn it’s early days. The GDP snapshot won’t be finalized until late April, leaving room for surprises. For now, two-year yields sit below 4%, and 10-year yields hover under 4.24%. Experts say the rally’s staying power hinges on upcoming heavy-hitters like next week’s jobs report—if it flags a slowdown, the case for rate cuts strengthens.

A week ago, 10-year yields topped 4.5%, with fears of tariff-fueled inflation looming large. But recent tariff threats and talk of federal job cuts have shifted focus to growth risks instead. Investors are shedding bearish positions, and some are even betting yields could sink below 4% if hiring falters and unemployment climbs.

The Fed, meanwhile, is stuck in a tricky spot with inflation still above its 2% goal. If push comes to shove, many believe it’ll lean toward bolstering growth—a move the market’s already pricing in. As February closes, index fund buying could nudge yields lower still, amplifying the rally.

This swift turnaround underscores the bond market’s sensitivity to shifting winds. With jobs data on deck, all eyes are on whether this Treasury boom has legs.

Perfect (PERF) – Positioning for New Revenue Opportunities

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $15.9 million, largely in line with our estimate of $16.2 million and up 12.4%, year-over-year. Adj. EBITDA of $0.25 million was below our estimate of $0.91 million, due primarily to lower-than-expected gross margins. This was likely due to the increased proportion of lower-margin B2C revenue as a share of total revenue.

Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. In our view, the company is poised to drive favorable revenue growth through expansion into untapped markets. For example, the emergence of its Skincare AI service allows it to reach new categories of clients. Through the recent Wannaby acquisition, the company also expanded its virtual try-on service offering to include additional fashion categories.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – A Look into the Fourth Quarter

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q Results. Revenues for the fourth quarter slightly declined to $607.7 million from $608.3 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $108.0 million, down from $129.0 million last year. Net income was $15.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, down from $25.2 million, or $0.17 per share, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.13 per diluted share versus $0.29 per share the prior year. Earnings and adjusted EBITDA were below expectations, primarily due to higher general and administrative expenses incurred during the fourth quarter of 2024.

New ICE Contract. Also announced was the award of a 15-year, fixed-price contract by ICE to provide support services for the establishment of a federal immigration processing center at the company-owned, 1,000 bed Delaney Hall facility in Newark, NJ. The contract is expected to generate in excess of $60 million in its first full year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Secure Services facilities. The idle facility is expected to be activated in 2Q 2025, with revenues and earnings from the new contract normalizing during the second half of 2025.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GoHealth (GOCO) – Delivers a Robust Annual Enrollment Period

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Q4. The company delivered impressive Q4 results driven by strong market dynamics during the Medicare Advantage Annual Enrollment Period (AEP). Quarterly revenue of $389.1 million was 16% stronger than our estimate of $336.0 million, and adj. EBITDA of $117.8 million exceeded our estimate of $80.4 million by 47%.

Improved efficiency. Average agent handle time was down roughly 9% from the prior year period and direct operating cost per policy submission was down 27% to $501. We believe these improvements are attributable to the company’s agent training and technology tool enhancements. Moreover, we believe the company’s focus on increasing productivity per agent could drive additional margin improvement over time.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – A Look at the Fourth Quarter

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q Results. Revenues for the fourth quarter totaled $145.3 million compared to $158.6 million last year. The prior year included an extra week, resulting in an additional $11.3 million being added. Adjusted EBITDA was $14.4 million compared to $27.0 million last year. Net loss totaled $67.4 million, or $4.06 per share, compared to $26.2 million, or $1.68 per share, in the prior year. Included in the loss was $30.6 million in goodwill impairment.

Development Pipeline. During 2024, the Company expanded its footprint by opening 92 restaurants and signing over 250 new franchise agreements, increasing the development pipeline to 1,000 locations. Management expects to add more than 100 additional restaurants in 2025, with 17 already opened in the new year, which we believe can be further accretive to the Company’s annual adjusted EBITDA.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Revenue Visibility Remains Elusive

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results in-line with expectations. The company reported Q4 revenue of $218.6 million, in line with our estimate of $219.0 million, and adj. EBITDA of $25.0 million, which was better than our estimate of $21.5 million. In our view, the quarter is illustrative of the company’s successful efforts to reduce costs and drive efficiencies, while managing the impact of macroeconomic headwinds and secular challenges on its businesses.

Continued weak revenue outlook. Management provided revenue pacings of a decline in the mid single digits for Q1 2025, slightly softer than our expectations. The company is being adversely affected by weak local and National spot advertising and headwinds from a loss of flagship podcast programming. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – ICE Adding Capacity

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Additional Capacity. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced the Company entered into contract modifications with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) at various facilities for up to an additional 1,036 beds. We view this as the first step by ICE to add capacity in its efforts to enforce President Trump’s crackdown on undocumented migrants. We anticipate additional contracting activity that will help satisfy ICE’s growing needs.

Details. ICE entered into contract modifications to add capacity for up to a total of 784 detainees at CoreCivic’s 2,016-bed Northeast Ohio Correctional Center, its 1,072-bed Nevada Southern Detention Center, and its 1,600-bed Cimarron Correctional Facility in Oklahoma. In addition, CoreCivic has obtained a contract modification to specify that ICE may use up to 252 beds at its 2,672-bed Tallahatchie County Correctional Facility in Mississippi.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Weekly Jobless Data Reveals Unexpected Spike in Unemployment Claims

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Initial unemployment claims jumped 22,000 to 242,000, exceeding economists’ forecast of 221,000
– Federal worker layoffs from Trump’s DOGE initiative haven’t yet appeared in federal unemployment data
– Consumer confidence in job availability declining despite historically low overall layoff rates

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits jumped more than anticipated last week, according to the latest data released by the Labor Department. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ended February 22, significantly exceeding economists’ projections of 221,000 claims.

Despite this unexpected rise, experts caution that the increase may not indicate a fundamental shift in labor market conditions. The Labor Department noted that seasonal adjustment factors—the models used to strip out normal fluctuations from the data—tend to artificially inflate claims figures around this time of year.

The report comes amid growing concerns about potential economic impacts from the Trump administration’s recent policies, particularly the mass layoffs of probationary federal government workers. Many of these employees were terminated around February 14 by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an entity created by President Trump and led by billionaire Elon Musk.

“These firings likely add up to the biggest layoff in the history of the United States,” said Michele Evermore, a Senior Fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance and former deputy director for policy in the Labor Department’s Office of Unemployment Insurance Modernization. Evermore warned that “economic pain is contagious” and that federal layoffs could trigger broader economic hardship.

Interestingly, the report showed no immediate impact from these federal workforce reductions in the separate unemployment compensation for federal employees program, which is reported with a one-week lag. However, economists warn that the reduction in money flowing through the economy from lost paychecks and spending cuts could eventually lead to private-sector job losses.

The so-called continuing claims—representing people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid—actually fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.862 million during the week ending February 15. This figure is used when surveying households for February’s unemployment rate, which stood at 4.0% in January.

Despite the overall resilience of the labor market, there are signs that households are growing more anxious about their job prospects. A Conference Board survey published Tuesday revealed that the share of consumers who viewed jobs as “plentiful” dropped to a five-month low in February, while the proportion describing jobs as “hard to get” reached its highest level since October.

For the Federal Reserve, these labor market signals provide critical input as policymakers monitor the economic impacts of the administration’s fiscal, trade, and immigration policies—many of which economists view as potentially inflationary. Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed policymakers expressing concern about higher inflation resulting from Trump’s initial policy proposals.

The central bank has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after reducing it by 100 basis points since September 2024. This followed an aggressive tightening cycle that raised rates by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation.

For now, historically low layoffs continue to support economic expansion, though upcoming reports will be closely watched for any signs that the federal workforce reductions are beginning to impact broader employment trends.