slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com, Author at Channelchek

Bit Digital (BTBT) – New Credit Agreement

Posted on June 24, 2025June 24, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Credit Agreement. Yesterday, Bit Digital’s WhiteFiber subsidiary announced a CAD$60 million credit facility with Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). We view this step favorably, as the facility not only provides funds to support the continued buildout of WhiteFiber’s Tier-3 AI data center portfolio but also is a confirmation of Bit Digital’s AI business model, in our view.

Terms. While we expect an 8-K to be filed with a full accounting of the terms, the credit agreement is among RBC and ENOVUM Data Centers Corp. and its Montreal II project as borrowers and guarantors, and is non-recourse to WhiteFiber or Bit Digital. It encompasses a real estate term loan, equipment financing, and a revolving facility. The facilities carry interest rates of CORRA plus 250 bps and a 3-year term.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

Tesla Stock Soars 9% After Elon Musk Announces Successful Robotaxi Launch in Austin

Posted on June 24, 2025June 24, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Key Points:
– Tesla launches its first robotaxi service in Austin with a limited group of early users.
– CEO Elon Musk praised the Tesla AI and chip teams and said rides cost a flat $4.20.
– Despite some operational hiccups, Tesla aims to scale rapidly, challenging Waymo and other rivals.

Tesla’s robotaxi service is currently running on a fleet of Model Y vehicles equipped with its advanced Full Self-Driving (FSD) Unsupervised software. The service is invite-only for now, offered to a community of Tesla enthusiasts, investors, and influencers who frequently promote the company across platforms such as X and YouTube.

Customers participating in the early rollout are charged a flat fare per ride, a detail personally shared by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. In typical fashion, Musk publicly celebrated the milestone, praising the Tesla AI and chip design teams for building the autonomous system from the ground up.

Many early riders reported smooth experiences with the service, some even completing numerous trips without issues. However, concerns remain. Observers have captured footage of the robotaxis performing unexpected maneuvers — including briefly driving against traffic or braking sharply in response to nearby vehicles. Critics argue that these incidents highlight the need for more transparency around safety and system limitations.

Tesla’s autonomous driving system has evolved significantly over the years. The company’s standard Autopilot and premium FSD Supervised features are already available in new EVs, offering capabilities like lane-keeping and automated navigation. However, the fully driverless system powering the robotaxi remains in limited release and is not yet available to the broader public.

The move into robotaxis puts Tesla in direct competition with established players such as Alphabet’s Waymo, which operates a growing fleet of driverless vehicles across multiple U.S. cities. In China, companies like Baidu’s Apollo Go and WeRide are also scaling rapidly, logging millions of autonomous trips annually.

Despite joining the race later than some of its competitors, Tesla brings brand power and a vertically integrated tech stack that could help it catch up quickly. Musk has previously said the company aims to deploy hundreds of thousands — if not over a million — fully autonomous vehicles in the coming years.

The initial rollout has not been without controversy. Some lawmakers and public safety advocates have urged Tesla to delay its robotaxi launch until more rigorous testing and safety data are available. Nonetheless, the company has pushed forward, confident in the capabilities of its proprietary AI systems.

As Tesla expands its service to new cities and gathers feedback from early riders, the robotaxi project is poised to reshape not only how people move but how they think about the future of car ownership, public transit, and automation. Whether Tesla can deliver safe, scalable, and competitive robotaxi experiences remains to be seen — but it’s clear that the road to autonomy has officially begun.

Oil Prices Fall Despite U.S.-Iran Strikes as Investors Discount Supply Threats

Posted on June 23, 2025June 23, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil prices tumbled over 3% on Monday despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as investors appeared to discount the threat of immediate disruptions to global crude supplies following Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. airbase in Qatar.

U.S. crude futures dropped by $2.32, or 3.14%, to settle at $71.52 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude declined by $2.41, or 3.13%, to $74.60. The sell-off marked a sharp reversal from gains seen Sunday evening, when Brent briefly surged above $81 following news of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard confirmed it had launched missiles at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, home to U.S. and coalition forces. While no casualties or infrastructure damage were reported, the strike underscored the escalating tit-for-tat between Tehran and Washington.

Despite the headline risk, oil markets remained notably calm. “The market is pricing in a de-escalation path,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical risk at Rystad Energy. “But the potential for things to unravel very quickly still exists.”

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, took to social media to urge for lower oil prices, telling “everyone” — likely including domestic producers — to help keep prices in check. The president’s comments reflect his administration’s concern over inflation ahead of the November election.

Geopolitical Flashpoint: Strait of Hormuz

The key long-term risk remains Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes daily. Iranian state media reported that parliament supported shutting down the vital waterway, although the final decision lies with Iran’s national security council.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran, noting that the Islamic Republic relies on the strait for its own oil exports. “We retain options to deal with that,” Rubio said, hinting at potential multilateral military responses.

Rubio also urged China, Iran’s top oil customer, to use its influence to dissuade Tehran from taking further steps that could disrupt regional stability. “About half of China’s seaborne oil comes through that corridor,” he said.

Market Psychology: Risk vs. Supply

Despite the barrage of developments, investors seem confident that major disruptions to supply remain unlikely in the short term. Iran continues to export nearly 1.84 million barrels per day, largely to China, and major production hubs remain operational.

Memories of 2019 — when Iranian-linked groups targeted Saudi oil facilities — and the subsequent quick recovery, may also be tempering investor anxiety. Additionally, diplomatic overtures between Iran and Saudi Arabia are viewed as a stabilizing factor in an otherwise volatile region.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it is closely monitoring the situation and is prepared to release strategic reserves if necessary. The IEA currently holds 1.2 billion barrels in emergency stockpiles.

For now, oil prices may remain rangebound as investors weigh the potential for further escalation against the apparent reluctance from both sides to push the conflict to extremes.

Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF) – Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling

Posted on June 23, 2025June 23, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, June 23, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Craigmont drilling program. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) has commenced the 2025 exploration and diamond drilling program at its New Craigmont Copper Project, which will entail 4,000 to 5,000 meters of drilling. The program is expected to run from June through September and cost $1.5 million to $2.0 million. The purpose of the 2025 program is to collect geological data for target development for a potential porphyry copper system at New Craigmont.

Identifying targets using artificial intelligence. In collaboration with ALS Geoanalytics (formerly ALS GoldSpot), five priority targets, three of which are included in the 2025 program, were identified using artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to analyze and correlate geophysical and geochemical data from Nicola’s exploration data. The collaboration harnesses the power of AI to identify high-potential targets which could increase the probability of successful outcomes.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Oil Prices Rise for Third Week as Markets Brace for Trump’s Decision on Iran

Posted on June 20, 2025June 20, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil markets wrapped up their third consecutive week of gains on Friday as investors watched closely for U.S. President Donald Trump’s next move regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled just below $75 per barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, hovered around $76, both on track to post roughly 3% gains for the week.

The latest rally in oil prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions ignited by renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran. While the conflict hasn’t disrupted oil flows yet, the mere prospect of a wider regional escalation has kept traders on edge.

Early Friday trading saw a slight dip in prices as Trump signaled a potential preference for diplomacy over immediate military intervention. “We’ll give diplomacy a chance,” he told reporters on Thursday, suggesting that a final decision on U.S. involvement is still pending. This hint of restraint helped cool the market’s reaction temporarily but did little to derail the broader upward trend in crude prices.

Despite rising oil prices, analysts from major financial institutions remain cautious about the long-term impact of the conflict on global energy markets. Citi’s commodities research team believes the risk of significant supply disruption remains limited.

“Disrupting oil supply isn’t in the interest of either Iran or the U.S.,” said Spiro Dounis, Citi’s senior energy analyst. He noted that even if Iran’s 1.1 million barrels per day of oil exports were completely halted, Brent prices would likely rise only modestly to the $75–78 range — not far above current levels.

Goldman Sachs offered a more dramatic short-term outlook, estimating that in the event of an actual disruption, oil prices could temporarily surge to $90 per barrel. However, the bank expects prices to normalize over the next year, potentially falling back to the $60 range in 2026 as supply recovers.

Importantly, current oil flows remain uninterrupted. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most crucial maritime oil chokepoints — continue unimpeded, and Iranian exports have not declined, easing some of the market’s worst fears.

A key factor cushioning the market is spare production capacity among OPEC+ members. The alliance, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been gradually increasing output in recent months, providing a potential buffer against sudden supply shocks.

“Above-average global spare capacity — equivalent to 4–5% of global demand — is the main cushion against Iran-specific disruptions,” said Goldman’s Daan Struyven. He pointed to the bloc’s strategic unwinding of production cuts as a stabilizing force in the current market environment.

With uncertainty still looming over the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term. Much will depend on whether Trump follows through with military action or continues to push for a diplomatic resolution. For now, investors will be watching closely, knowing that even the perception of risk can be enough to sway global oil markets.

Nutriband (NTRB) – Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected

Posted on June 20, 2025June 20, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, June 20, 2025

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Preparing For AVERSA Fentanyl Clinical Testing. Nutriband and its partner Kindeva announced that it has completed commercial manufacturing processes and scale-up for AVERSA Fentanyl, its abuse-deterrent fentanyl patch. This allows the company begin manufacturing clinical supplies and filing the IND (Investigational New Drug application) for the Phase 1 clinical study within the timeframe we anticipated. Only a single Phase 1 study is needed to file the application for marketing approval.

Manufacturing Completion Is A Significant Milestone. This scale-up is a significant step that demonstrates the ability to apply Kindeva’s transdermal patch technology for commercial scale production of AVERSA Fentanyl patches. We expect the IND filing to be completed shortly, with clinical testing to follow as expected.

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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – Roche Forms Supply Agreement For THIO Combination Studies

Posted on June 20, 2025June 20, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, June 20, 2025

MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

MAIA Makes Its Third Supply Agreement. MAIA announced that it has entered a supply agreement with Genentech/Roche to test THIO (ateganosine) in combination with Tecentriq (atezolizumab, Roche’s PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor) for the treatment of several hard-to-treat cancers. MAIA now has supply agreements to test THIO in combination with checkpoint inhibitors from three global pharmaceutical companies, which we see as an indicator of interest for future partnerships.

PD-1 or PD-1L? That Is The Question. Checkpoint inhibitors block the interaction of the surface proteins PD-1 (programmed death receptor-1) with PD-1L (the programed death receptor-1 ligand). When the PD-1 receptor binds to the PD-1L ligand, it inhibits the immune response. Checkpoint inhibitors are monoclonal antibody drugs against PD-1 or PD-L1 that block this interaction, allowing cancer cells to be recognized by a patient’s immune system and killed.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Euroseas (ESEA) – Strong Start to 2025

Posted on June 20, 2025June 20, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, June 20, 2025

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter 2025 financial results. Euroseas Ltd. reported adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $37.1 million and $3.76, respectively, compared to $24.6 million and $2.66 during the prior year period. Revenue increased due to a higher average number of vessels compared to the same period last year, while operating expenses declined. We had projected adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $34.7 million and $3.35, respectively. Relative to our estimates, revenues were higher, based on an average daily time charter equivalent rate of $27,806, versus our estimate of $26,221, while operating expenses were lower. Vessel operating expenses totaled $12.3 million compared to our estimate of $13.3 million.

Market outlook. The containership sector may face some challenges, including the potential for transit to resume through the Suez Canal, weaker economic conditions due to fluid trade policies, and a high industry order book, which could increase the supply of vessels. However, the company’s strong charter coverage through 2026 could insulate it from the potential for lower rates. Moreover, the feeder and intermediate segments of the market have relatively low order books, and demand for vessels remains strong.

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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

U.S. Considers Ending Chip Waivers to China, Sending Semiconductor Stocks Lower

Posted on June 20, 2025June 20, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Semiconductor stocks stumbled Friday after reports surfaced that the U.S. government is considering revoking waivers that currently allow major global chipmakers to use American technology in their Chinese operations.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department official Jeffrey Kessler informed executives from Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) earlier this week that the Biden administration is reviewing whether to terminate these exemptions. The waivers had enabled companies to export U.S. chipmaking tools and software to facilities in China, despite existing export controls.

The news triggered a wave of selling across the semiconductor sector. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped around 1%, while individual stocks including Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Marvell Technology fell roughly 1%. TSMC shares declined more than 2% as investors reacted to the potential disruption to its China-based operations.

The Commerce Department’s move signals a possible escalation in the ongoing tech tensions between Washington and Beijing. Although the two nations recently agreed on the framework of a second trade deal during meetings in London, the Biden administration has continued to tighten restrictions on advanced chip technology exports, citing national security concerns.

“These waivers were a key lifeline for chipmakers operating in China,” said Adam Kinley, an analyst at EastWest Securities. “If revoked, companies like TSMC and Samsung could face operational hurdles, reallocation costs, and potentially a sharp drop in revenue tied to China-based production.”

The semiconductor industry has already been navigating growing restrictions. In 2022 and 2023, the U.S. introduced sweeping controls limiting China’s access to advanced AI chips and tools required for high-end semiconductor fabrication. The latest efforts to close loopholes reflect Washington’s concern that Beijing could exploit foreign chip factories operating inside China to circumvent those controls.

The impact of these export curbs is already being felt. Nvidia, a leading AI chipmaker, disclosed last month that U.S. government restrictions on its China-bound H20 chips contributed to an estimated $8 billion hit in sales. CEO Jensen Huang described the China market—once worth $50 billion to U.S. chip companies—as “effectively closed.”

The potential rollback of waivers could further strain U.S.-China trade relations, particularly as China has denounced these restrictions as discriminatory. While the current policy discussions are ongoing and no final decision has been made, the possibility of more sweeping limits has introduced fresh volatility into the sector.

Investors and chipmakers alike will be watching closely for any formal announcements in the coming weeks. A reversal of the waivers would force affected companies to reevaluate supply chains, consider shifting manufacturing operations out of China, and potentially delay production schedules.

In the near term, analysts expect heightened market sensitivity to any government signals or diplomatic developments related to U.S.-China tech policy. As Washington balances national security priorities with global economic interests, the semiconductor industry finds itself once again at the center of geopolitical risk.

GENIUS Act Passes Senate: What It Means for Crypto and Stablecoin Investors

Posted on June 18, 2025June 18, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a historic move for the crypto industry, the U.S. Senate has passed the GENIUS Act—short for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins—laying the foundation for the first federal framework governing stablecoins. Though the bill still awaits approval from the House of Representatives and President Trump’s signature, its Senate passage marks a seismic shift in crypto policy that could reshape the digital asset landscape.

Stablecoins, digital tokens typically pegged to the U.S. dollar, are widely used for trading, payments, and preserving value in volatile markets. The GENIUS Act aims to bring oversight and legitimacy to this rapidly growing segment by requiring issuers to maintain full reserves in cash or U.S. Treasury assets, undergo routine audits, and publicly disclose their reserve compositions monthly.

The legislation has already catalyzed a dramatic response. According to CoinDesk, the total market capitalization of stablecoins surged to a record $251.7 billion, reflecting a 22% year-to-date increase. Industry leaders, including Circle (CRCL)—the largest U.S. stablecoin issuer—have hailed the bill as a breakthrough. Circle’s stock has soared 400% since going public in early June, signaling investor confidence in the sector’s regulated future.

“This bill gives us the right foundation,” said Dante Disparte, Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer. “Whether you’re a bank, a fintech, or a non-bank issuer, you now have a common regulatory floor.”

One of the most consequential elements of the GENIUS Act is its two-tiered regulatory approach: large issuers with over $10 billion in assets will fall under federal oversight, led by the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), while smaller issuers will be supervised by state regulators. Additionally, the act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest, a provision meant to draw a clear line between digital currencies and traditional savings products.

The bill also restricts members of Congress and their families from profiting off stablecoin ventures—though notably excludes President Trump and his family, sparking some partisan criticism. Trump’s growing involvement in the sector, including the launch of USD1 stablecoin by his crypto firm World Liberty Financial, has raised eyebrows and energized Republican support.

Big banks and corporations are now eyeing stablecoin issuance. Bank of America has confirmed it is exploring options, and Amazon and Walmart are reportedly assessing opportunities, though both companies remain cautious. The potential for new entrants to bypass traditional payment rails like Visa and Mastercard could be disruptive—and lucrative.

Despite concerns over investor runs and tech monopolies, the GENIUS Act includes strict consumer protection clauses, criminal penalties for noncompliance, and Treasury approval for tech firms wishing to issue stablecoins. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projects the U.S. stablecoin market could exceed $2 trillion by 2028 if the bill becomes law.

As the House prepares to review the bill—possibly attaching it to broader crypto legislation—investors are bracing for what could be the most significant wave of adoption and innovation in crypto history. If passed in full, the GENIUS Act could signal not just regulation—but a rebranding of stablecoins from speculative tools to mainstream financial instruments.

Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected

Posted on June 18, 2025June 18, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q1 results. the company reported Q1 revenue of $57.9 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, both of which were better than our estimates of $56.0 million and a loss of $5.5 million, respectively. Notably, while revenue and adj. EBITDA are both modestly lower than the prior year period; we view the Q1 results favorably, given the company’s ability to manage the uncertain tariff outlook.

Tariff mitigation. The company highlighted that it has been taking steps to reduce its exposure to China, currently roughly 60% of its cost of goods sold. Notably, the company is sourcing from other countries and expects that China will be roughly 25% of its cost of goods by the end of 2025. The company has leadership located in the sourcing countries to ensure product quality.

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GoHealth (GOCO) – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights

Posted on June 18, 2025June 18, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Vijay Kotte, CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Kotte highlighted the company’s proprietary technology, consumer-centric Medicare policy platform, and gave an update on recent developments. A rebroadcast is available here.

Purpose-built technology. Mr. Kotte emphasized the company’s use of proprietary machine learning tools alongside licensed agents to tailor recommendations to each consumer’s needs. With Medicare beneficiaries typically choosing from 40–50 plans, this technology plays a key role in efficiently identifying the most suitable options.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Interest Rates on Hold Again as Fed Maintains Forecast for Two Cuts

Posted on June 18, 2025June 18, 2025 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, keeping its benchmark rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% and reaffirming its forecast for two interest rate cuts before the end of 2025. The decision, which was supported unanimously by the Federal Open Market Committee, underscores the central bank’s cautious approach as it navigates a complex economic environment shaped by persistent inflation, slower growth expectations, and growing political pressure from the Trump administration.

Despite recent signs that inflation has eased modestly, the Fed raised its inflation outlook for the year. Officials now expect core PCE inflation, the central bank’s preferred metric, to end 2025 at 3.1%, up from a previous estimate of 2.8%. That adjustment reflects concerns that tariffs and other policy shifts under President Trump’s administration may continue to elevate prices and complicate the Fed’s path to achieving its 2% inflation target. At the same time, economic growth projections were lowered, with the Fed now anticipating annual GDP growth of 1.4%, down from 1.7%. The unemployment rate is also expected to climb slightly, from 4.4% to 4.5%, signaling a potential slowdown in the labor market as higher borrowing costs weigh on hiring and business investment.

The Fed’s statement noted that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished, but remains elevated,” marking a shift in tone from earlier warnings that uncertainty was rising. While this change suggests that some risks may be stabilizing, policymakers remain sharply divided over the appropriate course of action. Eight officials project two rate cuts this year, while seven expect no cuts at all. Two members see a single cut, and two others anticipate as many as three. This internal split reflects the complexity of balancing inflation management with support for economic growth, particularly in a volatile political climate.

President Trump, who has been increasingly vocal in his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, once again expressed dissatisfaction with the central bank’s approach. Hours before the rate announcement, Trump took aim at Powell in front of reporters, joking that he might appoint himself to the Fed, claiming, “Maybe I should go to the Fed; I’d do a much better job.” He continued his push for lower rates by declaring that inflation is no longer a concern, stating, “We have no inflation, we have only success.” This political pressure has not gone unnoticed, but Powell and other Fed officials appear focused on maintaining their independence and credibility by anchoring decisions in economic data rather than political narratives.

Markets responded calmly to the announcement, with the S&P 500 rising 0.18% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.21%. Investors largely interpreted the Fed’s decision as a sign that rate cuts remain on the table, just not at the pace the White House may want. For now, the Fed continues to walk a careful line, seeking to bring inflation down without derailing a fragile recovery. With just months left in the year and political tensions rising, all eyes will remain on Powell and the FOMC as they weigh their next move.