Wider Quarterly Loss, But Cost Cuts Are Positive

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)

Wider Quarterly Loss, But Cost Cuts Are Positive

Gevo Inc is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company engaged in the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products based on isobutanol produced from renewable feedstocks. Its operating segments are the Gevo segment and the Gevo Development/Agri-Energy segment. By its segments, it is involved in research and development activities related to the future production of isobutanol, including the development of its biocatalysts, the production and sale of biojet fuel, its Retrofit process and the next generation of chemicals and biofuels that will be based on its isobutanol technology. Gevo Development/Agri-Energy is the key revenue generating segment which involves the operation of the Luverne Facility and production of ethanol, isobutanol and related products.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Wider 1Q2020 loss, but 2020 estimated EBITDA losses narrowed to $14.4 million due to idling of Luverne plant in response to ethanol market weakness. Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $(6.3)

    million was wider than $(4.0) million in 4Q2019 due to weaker ethanol market. Luverne plant idling reduces operating losses and improves cost structure to push quarterly cash burn down below the $4 million range.

    Solid progress on Phase 1 goal of lower carbon intensity. Luverne plant idled for foreseeable future, but no change in near-term strategy. Wind energy is now in place and biogas strategy continues with build out of renewable natural gas (RNG) production. Phase 2 expansion backed by existing supply portfolio. Supply agreements of 17 million gallons/year in place (valued at $600 million) and potential supply agreements in the up to 70 million gallons/year range (~$1.5 billion of added value) are ongoing despite the current turmoil in the airline/refining industries. Interest in commercializing the concept remains high and industry partners could be added shortly. Potential expansion plans include retro-fitting two other existing ethanol plants and…



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COVID to Impact Rest of 2020; Maintaining Outperform but Lowering Price Target

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Information Services (III)

COVID to Impact Rest of 2020; Maintaining Outperform but Lowering Price Target

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 70 of the top 100 enterprises in the world, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    COVID to Impact Rest of 2020. The COVID pandemic is impacting ISG’s business as clients are delaying or cancelling engagements, while ISG’s own events have gone virtual. The Company is working to assist clients through these challenging times using the successful Great Recession playbook. The length of the business downturn is uncertain at this time.

    Some Current and Possible Long-term Positives. ISG is seeing greater demand for certain services such as its rapid cost takeout, its vendor compliance and risk management, and asset monetization services. The business mix will benefit from a higher portion of higher margin services. Longer term, as businesses accelerate their digital transformation it could open greater opportunities for ISG….



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Strong 1Q20 Results

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Vectrus (VEC)

Strong 1Q20 Results

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. It operates as one segment and offer facility and logistics services and information technology and network communications services. The information technology and network communications capabilities consist of communications systems operations and maintenance, management and service support, systems installation and activation, system-of-systems engineering and software development, and mission support for the department of defense. The facility and logistics service include airfield management, ammunition management, civil engineering, communications, emergency services, life support activities, public works, security, transportation operations and others.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q20. Revenue of $351.7 million, up 7.9% y-o-y. Consensus was $337 million and we were at $350 million. EPS was $0.74, up from $0.62 in 2019. Consensus was $0.74 and we were at $0.69. Organic revenue growth was 4% and Advantor added $11.2 million. Management estimated COVID impacted revenue by $2.2 million and EPS by $0.02 in the quarter.

    Revenue Up in all Geographies and with all Major Customers. Revenue in Europe grew 15% to $32.3 million, U.S. by 14% to $81.4 million, and 5% in the Middle East to $237.9 million. Revenue from the Army grew 9.2% to $247.6 million. The Air Force was up 8% to $73.3 million, and Navy revenue rose 1.0% to $15.2 million. The Company’s focus on enhancing its portfolio of clients and…



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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) – Trying To Make A Dash To The Other Side

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS)

Trying To Make A Dash To The Other Side

CUMULUS MEDIA, Inc. (NASDAQ: CMLS) is a leading audio-first media and entertainment company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. CUMULUS MEDIA engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 428 owned-and-operated stations across 87 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, the Olympics, the GRAMMYS, the American Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across nearly 8,000 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. CUMULUS MEDIA provides advertisers with local impact and national reach through on-air, digital, mobile, and voice-activated media solutions, as well as access to integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, and live event experiences. CUMULUS MEDIA is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Q1 disappoints given impact from Covid. Total revenues of $227.9 million was below our $250.7 million estimate. We believe that the majority of the variance was due to the cancellation of the March Madness, NCAA Tournament, due to Covid 19. Operating cash flow (Adj. EBITDA) was $27.7 million versus our $34.3 million estimate.

    Radio takes a big hit. Radio broadcasting has been uniquely hit given stay at home rules that limit driving in cars where listenership largely happens. The second quarter spot advertising decline is expected to be roughly 50%. We are lowering our Q2 revenue and cash flow estimates and full year 2020 and 2021 estimates to reflect a…



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Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) – Wider Quarterly Loss, But Cost Cuts Are Positive

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)

Wider Quarterly Loss, But Cost Cuts Are Positive

Gevo Inc is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company engaged in the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products based on isobutanol produced from renewable feedstocks. Its operating segments are the Gevo segment and the Gevo Development/Agri-Energy segment. By its segments, it is involved in research and development activities related to the future production of isobutanol, including the development of its biocatalysts, the production and sale of biojet fuel, its Retrofit process and the next generation of chemicals and biofuels that will be based on its isobutanol technology. Gevo Development/Agri-Energy is the key revenue generating segment which involves the operation of the Luverne Facility and production of ethanol, isobutanol and related products.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Wider 1Q2020 loss, but 2020 estimated EBITDA losses narrowed to $14.4 million due to idling of Luverne plant in response to ethanol market weakness. Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $(6.3)

    million was wider than $(4.0) million in 4Q2019 due to weaker ethanol market. Luverne plant idling reduces operating losses and improves cost structure to push quarterly cash burn down below the $4 million range.

    Solid progress on Phase 1 goal of lower carbon intensity. Luverne plant idled for foreseeable future, but no change in near-term strategy. Wind energy is now in place and biogas strategy continues with build out of renewable natural gas (RNG) production. Phase 2 expansion backed by existing supply portfolio. Supply agreements of 17 million gallons/year in place (valued at $600 million) and potential supply agreements in the up to 70 million gallons/year range (~$1.5 billion of added value) are ongoing despite the current turmoil in the airline/refining industries. Interest in commercializing the concept remains high and industry partners could be added shortly. Potential expansion plans include retro-fitting two other existing ethanol plants and…



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Information Services (III) – COVID to Impact Rest of 2020; Maintaining Outperform but Lowering Price Target

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Information Services (III)

COVID to Impact Rest of 2020; Maintaining Outperform but Lowering Price Target

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 70 of the top 100 enterprises in the world, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    COVID to Impact Rest of 2020. The COVID pandemic is impacting ISG’s business as clients are delaying or cancelling engagements, while ISG’s own events have gone virtual. The Company is working to assist clients through these challenging times using the successful Great Recession playbook. The length of the business downturn is uncertain at this time.

    Some Current and Possible Long-term Positives. ISG is seeing greater demand for certain services such as its rapid cost takeout, its vendor compliance and risk management, and asset monetization services. The business mix will benefit from a higher portion of higher margin services. Longer term, as businesses accelerate their digital transformation it could open greater opportunities for ISG….



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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
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Vectrus (VEC) – Strong 1Q20 Results

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Vectrus (VEC)

Strong 1Q20 Results

Vectrus Inc is a U.S.-based company that provides services to the U.S. government. It operates as one segment and offer facility and logistics services and information technology and network communications services. The information technology and network communications capabilities consist of communications systems operations and maintenance, management and service support, systems installation and activation, system-of-systems engineering and software development, and mission support for the department of defense. The facility and logistics service include airfield management, ammunition management, civil engineering, communications, emergency services, life support activities, public works, security, transportation operations and others.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q20. Revenue of $351.7 million, up 7.9% y-o-y. Consensus was $337 million and we were at $350 million. EPS was $0.74, up from $0.62 in 2019. Consensus was $0.74 and we were at $0.69. Organic revenue growth was 4% and Advantor added $11.2 million. Management estimated COVID impacted revenue by $2.2 million and EPS by $0.02 in the quarter.

    Revenue Up in all Geographies and with all Major Customers. Revenue in Europe grew 15% to $32.3 million, U.S. by 14% to $81.4 million, and 5% in the Middle East to $237.9 million. Revenue from the Army grew 9.2% to $247.6 million. The Air Force was up 8% to $73.3 million, and Navy revenue rose 1.0% to $15.2 million. The Company’s focus on enhancing its portfolio of clients and…



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First Quarter In-Line but COVID Impacting 2Q

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Information Services (III)

First Quarter In-Line but COVID Impacting 2Q

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 70 of the top 100 enterprises in the world, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q20 Results. Revenue totaled $63.7 million, in-line with our $64 million estimate. GAAP net loss was $0.03 versus our $0.01 loss estimate with the difference mostly in higher interest expenses and a lower tax benefit than we had forecast. Adjusted EPS was $0.02 for the quarter versus our $0.04 projection. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $3.5 million compared to our $4.25 million estimate.

    Solid Cash Flow in Quarter, Balance Sheet Remains a Strength. For the quarter, ISG CFFO totaled $4.6 million, compared to $1.3 million in the year ago period. ISG repurchased $3.4 million of stock in the quarter. Cash at quarter’s end was $17.5 million and the Company will benefit in this time of crisis from its recently amended credit agreement which reduces annual principal payments by 61% to $4.3 million, lowers borrowing costs, and provides access to a…



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Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)

Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Scorpio Bulkers Inc is a shipping company based in Monaco. It owns and operates a fleet of modern mid to large-size dry bulk carriers which provide marine transportation for major bulks, which include iron ore, coal and grain and minor bulks which include bauxite, fertilizers and steel products internationally. In terms of its dead weight tonnage, its vessels are classified as Capesize, Kamsarmax and Ultramax, by the order of highest to lowest capacity, with Kamsarmax accounting for the highest revenue.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q2020 results below expectations and a weak start to the year due to COVID-19 disruptions. Reported EBITDA was negative $100.1 million, but excluding non-cash items of $105.7 million, adjusted EBITDA was $5.6 million in 1Q2020, down sharply from $32.8 million in 1Q2019. Reported net losses of $124.7 million, or $18.12/diluted share, included mark-tomarket investment losses of $88.7 million and write-downs of $17.0 million on planned asset sales.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimates to reflect 2Q2020 forward cover and the weaker than expected outlook. TCE rate weakness has lingered into the quarter due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 virus and several vessels have been repositioned away from weak markets. As a result, the 2Q2020 forward cover is muted with 64% of days booked at $7,149/day for Kamsarmaxes and 69% of days booked at $4,076/day for Ultramaxes. Given the slow start to the year and weaker forward cover, we are revising our 2020 EBITDA estimate to $23.2 million from $80.0 million, based on…



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Ceapro (CRPOF)(CZO:CA) – Pursuing Novel Nutraceutical and Biopharmaceutical Markets

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Ceapro (CRPOF)(CZO:CA)

Research Initiation-Pursuing Novel Nutraceutical and Biopharmaceutical Markets

Ceapro, Inc. is a publicly-held (TSX-V: CZO, OTCQX: CRPOF) Canadian biotechnology company developing and commercializing “active ingredients” for the healthcare and cosmetic industries. Ceapro’s active ingredients are primarily derived from oats and other renewable plant resources. The Company utilizes its proprietary plant extraction-based manufacturing process to supply active ingredients based on “oat beta glucan and avenanthramides”. Ceapro has patented a technology known as “Pressurized Gas eXpanded (PGX) technology”, which has superior features when compared to conventional drying and purification technologies. Using PGX technology, Ceapro generates novel biopolymers and biocomposites with micro/nanoparticles.

Cosme Ordonez, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Initiating Coverage. We are initiating research coverage on Ceapro, Inc.

    Revenue Generating Biotechnology Company. Ceapro is a commercial stage Canadian biotechnology company selling active ingredients for the personal care, cosmetic and healthcare industries. In F2019, the Company generated total revenue of $12.9 mm (11% growth) and CFO of $0.9 mm. Ceapro’s active ingredients are used by household name brands in the personal care markets including Johnson & Johnson’s Aveeno line of products, Neutrogena, and Lubriderm.

    Transition to become a Biopharmaceutical Company. While continuing to grow its active ingredients base business, Ceapro’s management plans to leverage its proprietary PGX manufacturing technology to develop novel products based on oat beta glucan and avenanthramides to pursuit nutraceutical, cosmeceutical and


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Aurania Resources (AUIAF)(ARU:CA) – LiDAR Surveys Yield Valuable Leads

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)(ARU:CA)

LiDAR Surveys Yield Valuable Leads

As of April 24, 2020, Noble Capital Markets research on Aurania Resources is published under ticker symbols (AUIAF and ARU:CA). The price target is in USD and based on ticker symbol AUIAF. Research reports dated prior to April 24, 2020 may not follow these guidelines and could account for a variance in the price target.
Aurania Resources Ltd. is a Canada-based junior mining exploration company engaged in the identification, evaluation, acquisition, and exploration of mineral property interests, with a focus on precious metals and copper. Its flagship asset, The Lost Cities-Cutucu Project, is in southeastern Ecuador in the Province of Morona-Santiago. The company also has several minor projects in Switzerland.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    LiDAR images yield clues in locating historic mining centers. Images from a recent LiDAR survey revealed a potential historic road that is up to 60 meters wide in the central part of the Lost Cities project and is thought to have been constructed during the Colonial Spanish period. This finding, along with another historic path discovered in late 2019, could yield more clues to the location of the historic gold mining centers of Sevilla de Oro and Logrono de los Caballeros, both believed to be within the Lost Cities project area. In addition to helping detect remnants of infrastructure, LiDAR surveys are being used to refine targets for gold and copper exploration.

    Vein system identified at Tiria. LiDAR imagery also identified a vein system that coincides with areas containing silver in soil samples from the Tiria South epithermal gold and silver target. If a vein system is confirmed by field work, the target for follow up work would be the…



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Information Services (III) – First Quarter In-Line but COVID Impacting 2Q

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Information Services (III)

First Quarter In-Line but COVID Impacting 2Q

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 70 of the top 100 enterprises in the world, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q20 Results. Revenue totaled $63.7 million, in-line with our $64 million estimate. GAAP net loss was $0.03 versus our $0.01 loss estimate with the difference mostly in higher interest expenses and a lower tax benefit than we had forecast. Adjusted EPS was $0.02 for the quarter versus our $0.04 projection. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $3.5 million compared to our $4.25 million estimate.

    Solid Cash Flow in Quarter, Balance Sheet Remains a Strength. For the quarter, ISG CFFO totaled $4.6 million, compared to $1.3 million in the year ago period. ISG repurchased $3.4 million of stock in the quarter. Cash at quarter’s end was $17.5 million and the Company will benefit in this time of crisis from its recently amended credit agreement which reduces annual principal payments by 61% to $4.3 million, lowers borrowing costs, and provides access to a…



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Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) – Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)

Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Scorpio Bulkers Inc is a shipping company based in Monaco. It owns and operates a fleet of modern mid to large-size dry bulk carriers which provide marine transportation for major bulks, which include iron ore, coal and grain and minor bulks which include bauxite, fertilizers and steel products internationally. In terms of its dead weight tonnage, its vessels are classified as Capesize, Kamsarmax and Ultramax, by the order of highest to lowest capacity, with Kamsarmax accounting for the highest revenue.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q2020 results below expectations and a weak start to the year due to COVID-19 disruptions. Reported EBITDA was negative $100.1 million, but excluding non-cash items of $105.7 million, adjusted EBITDA was $5.6 million in 1Q2020, down sharply from $32.8 million in 1Q2019. Reported net losses of $124.7 million, or $18.12/diluted share, included mark-tomarket investment losses of $88.7 million and write-downs of $17.0 million on planned asset sales.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimates to reflect 2Q2020 forward cover and the weaker than expected outlook. TCE rate weakness has lingered into the quarter due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 virus and several vessels have been repositioned away from weak markets. As a result, the 2Q2020 forward cover is muted with 64% of days booked at $7,149/day for Kamsarmaxes and 69% of days booked at $4,076/day for Ultramaxes. Given the slow start to the year and weaker forward cover, we are revising our 2020 EBITDA estimate to $23.2 million from $80.0 million, based on…



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