Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD) – Cadrenal Reports 3Q24 With Tecarfarin Progress Updates

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Financial Condition Improved In 3Q24. Cadrenal reported a loss of $2.4 million or $(2.18) per share, adjusted for the 1-for-15 reverse split on August 20, 2024. This loss was slightly less than our projections. Cash on September 30 was $4.4 million, excluding financing that brought in $9.8 million after the close of the quarter. The company reported that its current cash balance was approximately $11.3 million on November 7, 2024.

The Tecarfarin Made Progress In Its Next Indication. Cadrenal held a Type-B meeting with the FDA to discuss the planned Phase 3 trial for use of tecarfarin in patients with left ventricular assist devices. The company will use the guidance and comments from the meeting to design the pivotal trial. Cadrenal also continued to discuss collaborating with Abbott about a clinical trial with patients that have the Abbott HeartMate 3, the only LVAD available in the United States. Cadrenal has Orphan Drug designation for the LVAD indication, providing a strong incentive for collaborations.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – In Danone’s Corner

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Support for Danone. In response to Lifeway’s rejection of the Danone offer to acquire the Company, yesterday, Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky released a statement stating, among other things, “we strongly support Danone’s offer, which represents a substantial premium over Lifeway’s recent share price and reflects their confidence in the growing U.S. kefir market…” They go on to say, “As we approach one of most significant and closely watched earnings releases in Lifeway’s history, we remain optimistic about the company’s potential and believe that Danone’s proposal presents a unique opportunity to enhance value for all shareholders.”

Ownership. According to their most recent amended 13D filing dated August 14th, Edward and Ludmila may be deemed to be the beneficial owners of an aggregate of 4,332,451 shares of common stock, representing approximately 29.3% of the outstanding shares of common stock. This includes 500,000 shares (3.3% of the outstanding) held in a trust of which Edward and Julie each own 50%. Danone owns 3,454,756 shares representing 23.4% of the outstanding. Together, Danone and the Smolyansky’s control over 50% of the outstanding, even if we split the 500,000 trust shares equally. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – First Look at 3Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Quarter. Kratos reported a solid quarter, with Unmanned Systems reporting 8.7% organic revenue growth. Turbine Technologies, Microwave Products, C5ISR, Defense  Rocket Support, and Training Solutions businesses also all reported organic revenue growth. This was offset by the previously reported and expected decline of approximately  $24.2 million in the Space and Satellite business, primarily resulting from the industry related impact from OEM delays.

3Q24 Results. Kratos reported revenue of $275.9 million, flat with the same period last year. We had estimated $280 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.6 million, compared to $27.7 million last year and our $21 million estimate. Reported net income was $3.2 million, or $0.02/sh, up from a $1.6 million loss, or a loss of $0.01/sh in 3Q23. Adjusted EPS was $0.11 compared to $0.12 last year. We were at $0.01 and $0.06, respectively.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Information Services Group (III) – A Look into the Third Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Hitting the Top of Revised Guidance. ISG reported revenue and net income at the top end of the Company’s revised guidance and in-line with our estimates. Revenue for the quarter was $61.3 million, which while down 15% from last year, was slightly above our estimate of $61 million. Net income was $1.1 million, or EPS of $0.02, beating out our estimate of $0.2 million or flat EPS.

Rising Client Demand. Management noted that ISG Tango now includes over $5 billion of contract value, up from $4 billion in the previous earnings release. Management is seeing signs that client demand in the U.S. is on the rise, translating to higher spending. We believe that the rise in contract value offers a sign towards higher spending on projects.


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GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO) – The Pieces are in Place; Poised for a Strong AEP

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 beat. The company reported Q3 revenue of $118.3 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $12.1 million, better than our estimates of $104.0 million and a loss of $14.1 million, respectively. Notably, the company benefited from improved efficiency with declines in direct costs of policy submissions and strong agent productivity.

Prepared for AEP. In our view, the company is well positioned heading onto this year’s Annual Enrolment Period (AEP) with several technological enhancements that drive favorable customer experiences and agent productivity. Using AI based tools, such as Plan GPT, the company has reduced its average call time from 90 minutes to 67 minutes. We believe the company could make additional incremental efficiency enhancements in Q4 and beyond, which could lead to more volume and margin improvement.   


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kelly Services (KELYA) – Reports 3Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Kelly (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. We’re always thinking about what’s next in the evolving world of work, and we help people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. We directly employ nearly 350,000 people around the world and connect thousands more with work through our global network of talent suppliers and partners in our outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2021 was $4.9 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and let us help with what’s next for you.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Challenges. In the third quarter, Kelly remained focused on what it could control, but the uncertain economic environment persisted, impacting consolidated results. On an organic basis, revenue rose in two of the business units, while gross profit rate fell in three of the four units. Integration costs related to the MRP acquisition of $6.1 million also impacted results. Investors reacted negatively to the results, sending the shares down 18% to $18.14.

3Q24 Results. Revenue of $1.038 billion, down 7.1% y-o-y, but essentially flat on an organic basis. We were at $1.075 billion, the same as the consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of $26.2 million, up 2.7% y-o-y, but below our $34 million estimate and consensus $33 million. Net income of $0.8 million, or $0.02/sh and adjusted EPS of $0.21, compared to $0.18 and $0.50 in 3Q23. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Schwazze (SHWZ) – Reports Preliminary 3Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Preliminary 3Q24 Results. Last night, Schwazze reported preliminary 3Q24 results. We believe the ongoing audit of past results is likely causing a delay in reporting results. According to the release, 3Q24 revenue is expected to be approximately $42 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $11 million. In 3Q23, Schwazze reported revenue of $46.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $14.1 million. We had estimated revenue of $44.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $10.3 million.

Making Progress. In spite of the challenging operating environment, Schwazze continued to generate momentum from its retail growth and optimization initiatives in the quarter, reflected by the Company once again outpacing two highly competitive markets while generating sequential improvements in profitability and positive cash flow from operations. Management noted increased store traffic in both Colorado and New Mexico.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Another Solid Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q24 Results. CoreCivic’s financial results for the third quarter of 2024 demonstrated the Company’s continued strong operating momentum. Increased occupancy and higher per diems drove the increased revenue in the quarter. While ICE populations were relatively stable in the quarter, management did note populations have increased by 5% since the beginning of October. Operating margin increased compared with the prior-year quarter through continued cost management and strong demand for CXW’s services.

Opportunity. Obviously, with the coming change in the President, most industry observers expect to see a step change in the use of services provided by the industry. There also is significant opportunity at the state and local levels being driven by increasing jail populations, forecasts for prison population’s to rise over the next five years, ongoing staffing issues, and an aging physical stock.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Digital Revenue Gains Momentum

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In line quarter. Total company revenues of $115.3 million was roughly flat with the year earlier period and in line with our $115.0 million estimate. Q3 adj. EBITDA was $25.5 million versus our $26.5 million estimate. Notably, the results were in line with the company’s previous guidance. 

Digital revenue accelerates. Total digital revenue swung positive in the latest quarter, up 1.1%, the first time since q2 2023. The revenue improvement was led by its Ignite business (up 4.7%) and a significant moderation in the revenue decline at Townsquare Ignite (down 5.8%, much better than down 12.9% in Q2). Management indicated that Ignite’s Q4 revenue growth should triple to near 15% and Interactive should swing positive. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Saga Communications (SGA) – Resilient Amidst Economic Headwinds

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 08, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $28.1 million and adj. EBITDA of $3.6 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $28.7 million and $3.6 million, respectively. Notably, the company ended an unprofitable relationship with a digital services provider, which contributed to digital revenue growth slowing to 3.2% in Q3. While we anticipate this will make year-over-year digital revenue comparisons difficult in the short term, we believe the company’s digital segment offers a favorable growth outlook.

Q4 outlook. Management indicated that Q4 revenue is pacing down low to mid-single digits, highlighting a difficult advertising market that is feeling the effects of the high interest rate environment. Furthermore, operating expenses on a same station basis are guided to increase in the range of 3% – 5% over the prior year period. We anticipate this increase will largely be attributed to investments in the company’s digital growth initiatives.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – Accelerating B2B Pivot

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 07, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q24 Results. Weak macroeconomic and business conditions resulted in challenging performance in the quarter. Third quarter revenue of $1.78 billion declined 11% y-o-y. Adjusted operating income was $41 million, down from $112 million in 3Q23. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $62 million from $138 million. ODP reported adjusted net income from continuing operations of $24 million, or EPS of $0.71, versus $85 million, or EPS of $2.17, in the same period last time.

Accelerating the Pivot. Given the recent operating challenges, ODP is accelerating its B2B pivot. The Company is leveraging its differentiated core strengths to pivot towards higher growth B2B opportunities. Recent contract wins, including a 10-year $1.5 billion contract with a reseller organization and a new contract with one of the world’s largest social media-focused e-commerce companies, are reflective of these efforts.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) – Third Quarter Financial Results Exceed Our Estimates

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 07, 2024

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is a prominent pure-play Capesize shipping company listed in the U.S. capital markets. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of Capesize vessels. The Company’s operating fleet consists of 18 vessels (1 Newcastlemax and 17 Capesize) with an average age of approximately 13.4 years and an aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,236,212 dwt. Upon completion of the delivery of the previously announced Capesize vessel acquisition, the Company’s operating fleet will consist of 19 vessels (1 Newcastlemax and 18 Capesize) with an aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,417,608 dwt. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands and has executive offices in Glyfada, Greece. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP”.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. The company reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $26.8 million and $0.69, respectively, exceeding our estimates of $25.5 million and $0.61. Revenue was $1.1 million above our estimate, while expenses were only modestly higher. The variance to our net revenue estimate is attributed to lower commissions and greater fees from related parties. Operating income was $17.7 million compared to our estimate of $17.0 million. 

Updating estimates. We are lowering our 2024 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $101.7 million and $2.52, respectively, from our previous estimates of $102.1 million and $2.56. Additionally, we are lowering our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $93.7 million and $1.93, respectively, from $102.0 million and $2.39. The revisions are mainly due to lower time charter equivalent (TCE) rates and more dry-docking days in 2025, resulting in lower operating days and net revenue than previously estimated.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Solid 3Q24 Results – A First Look

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 07, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Results and a Favorable Reaction. CoreCivic reported above expected 3Q24 results, driven by higher compensated occupancy and continued cost management. Notably, the results were achieved even with the headwinds of CalCity and South Texas, which resulted in ICE revenue declining 3.4% y-o-y. Excluding the South Texas facility, ICE revenue rose 10.9% y-o-y. CXW shares reacted favorably to the election results, rising nearly 30% to close at $17.58 yesterday.

Third Quarter Detail. Total revenue was at $491.6 million (including $5.7 million of deferred revenue related to South Texas), above our forecast of $479.5 million and above last year’s $483.7 million. Occupancy rates increased to 75.2% from 72.0% in the prior year. Operating margin improved 130 basis points y-o-y, reflecting the increased top line and cost control. Adjusted EBITDA was $83.3 million, up from $75.2 million. Net income was $21.1 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to $13.9 million or $0.12 last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.20 versus $0.14 last year. We estimated net income of $10 million or $0.09 per diluted share.


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