Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Showing The Rest How Its Done

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 09, 2025

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid first quarter results. Total company revenues were down a modest 1% to $98.7 million, in line with our $98.5 million estimate. Digital revenues increased 6.4%, nearly completely offsetting the weakness in legacy broadcast. Notably, Digital revenue in the quarter represented 57% of total revenue, but, more importantly, 62% of total company adj. EBITDA. Q1 adj. EBITDA of $18.1 million was better than our $17.0 million estimate.

Ignite continues to be on fire. Ignite, the company’s programmatic/advertising solutions business, increased revenues an attractive 7.6% in the quarter. Management indicated that the growth of Ignite will be enhanced by its white label initiative, which is expected to account for $10 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to grow to $50 million in the next 3 to 5 years and with a 20% operating margin. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Saga Communications (SGA) – Unique Digital Strategy Gains Traction

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 09, 2025

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 Results.  The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.5 million, both of which declined over the prior year period, but were modestly better than our estimates of $23.0 million and a loss of $1.1 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. Notably, the company is focused on its blended digital growth strategy and improving profitability. We believe the company’s strategic actions are a step in the right direction for returning toward revenue and adj. EBITDA growth.

Digital growth strategy. The company’s blended growth strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. Notably, year to date, the company has generated digital revenue of $5.3 million, surpassing the company’s $5.0 million generated for full year 2024. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) – A Solid Start to 2025

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 09, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Solid Start. ONE Group reported results modestly above our expectations for 1Q25. The accomplishments were driven by another quarter of sequential improvement in comparable sales trends, positive comparable sales at the Benihana restaurants, and strong positive transaction growth of 4.1% at the flagship STK brand.

1Q25 Results. ONE Group reported revenue of $211.1 million, up nearly 150% y-o-y, driven by the May 2024 Benihana acquisition. Same Store Sales declined 3.2%, compared to guidance of a negative 3-4%. Adjusted EBITDA was $25.2 million, up from $7.6 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.14, compared to an adjusted loss of $0.02/sh last year.


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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) – Navigating Economic Headwinds

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 09, 2025

Lucky Strike Entertainment is one of the world’s premier location-based entertainment platforms. With over 360 locations across North America, Lucky Strike Entertainment provides experiential offerings in bowling, amusements, water parks, and family entertainment centers. The company also owns the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling and a growing media property that boasts millions of fans around the globe. For more information on Lucky Strike Entertainment, please visit ir.luckystrikeent.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Lackluster Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $339.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $117.3 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $360.0 million and $130 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results.  Notably, the soft results were largely driven by a decrease in corporate events in California and Seattle, and partially offset by high single digit increase in food sales and stable retail and league business. While Q3 results were lackluster, we believe the company will gain momentum heading into the summer.

Favorable developments. The company’s Summer Season Pass program, aimed at driving retail traffic, increased sales by more than 200% compared with this time last year. Additionally, the company is heading into summer with three water parks and seven family entertainment centers that were acquired this year. We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from its enhanced scale, in spite of the economic uncertainty. 


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Nicola Mining Inc. (NIM:CA) – Multiple Avenues for Value Creation Supported by Operational Cash Flow

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. Nicola Mining is a unique junior exploration company because it offers discovery potential through its ownership of its flagship New Craigmont Copper Project, ownership of the Treasure Mountain high-grade silver-lead-zinc mine, a 75% economic interest in the Dominion Creek gold project, along with 100% ownership of the only mill permitted to receive and process material from throughout British Columbia. The company’s Merritt Mill, along with a sand/gravel pit and rock quarry, generates cash flow to support Nicola’s operations and exploration programs, which minimizes the need for dilutive equity issuance.

New Craigmont Copper Project. New Craigmont is in the Quesnel Trough, one of Canada’s most prolific copper belts, and is surrounded by past and present producing copper mines and is adjacent to Teck Resources’ Highland Valley Copper Mine, the largest copper mine in Canada. New Craigmont derives its name from the historic Craigmont open pit and underground mine that operated on the property from 1961 to 1982. The Craigmont mine produced over 36.75 million tons of ore with an average grade of 1.28% copper, yielding 900 million pounds of copper. The mine ceased operations in 1982 due to low copper prices.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Conduent (CNDT) – Posts Solid Q1 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $751 million, slightly below our estimate of $767 million, illustrated in Figure #1 CNDT Q1 Results. Quarterly adj. EBITDA of $37 million was significantly higher than our estimate of $14 million, driven by better-than-expected operating cost reductions as the company works to remove stranded costs from its 2024 divestitures. 

New business signings. During Q1, new business annual contract values (ACV) increased to $109 million, up 13.5% from $96 million in the prior year period. The total contract value (TCV) of the Q1 new business wins was $280 million, up an impressive 95.8%, year-over-year, indicating that management’s plan to return the organization to organic revenue growth is off to a good start, following a year that was more squarely focused on divestitures and debt reduction. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Exceeds 1Q25 Expectations; Raises Full Year Guidance

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Exceeds Expectations. Driven by an increase in occupancy to 77%, increased bed utilization, and cost management, CoreCivic exceeded internal expectations as well as our projections. Revenue was $488.6 million, better than our $480.1 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $81 million compared to our $69.1 million estimate. FFO was $0.45/sh versus our $0.35/sh estimate, and EPS was $0.23 compared to our estimate of $0.12. In 1Q24, CoreCivic reported revenue of $500.7 million, adjusted EBITDA of $89.5 million, EPS of $0.08, and adjusted EPS of $0.25. The previous year benefited from contracts that were eventually lost during the year.

More Business. In addition to the 2,400 bed Dilley facility, CoreCivic has received letter agreements from ICE for the potential activation of the 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Reception Center in Leavenworth, Kansas and at the 2,560-bed California City Immigration Processing Center in California City, California. Management anticipates additional contracting activity as 2025 progresses.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – Post Call Comments

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Promising Signs. Management highlighted the success of the Company’s ongoing efforts to improve cash flow and pay down debt. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 improved across several important financial metrics, resulting in increased profitability and margin growth due to operational efficiencies from the lower cost structure.

Reorganization. This quarter, the company launched its new segment structure: Global Seating, Global Electrical Systems, and Trim Systems and Components. The revised structure aims to better connect with the end market customer and sharpen the Company’s focus on the business units.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – A Step In The Right Direction

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 Results. Sales for the first quarter were $1.699 billion compared to $1.869 billion last year but were above our expectations of $1.625 billion. Net loss totaled $29 million, or a loss of $0.97/sh, compared to a net income of $15 million, or $0.40/sh, in the prior year. Adjusted EPS was $1.06, which surpassed our estimate of $0.58/sh, but was lower than $1.31 last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $76 million beat our estimate of $59 million and decreased from $91 million last year.

Favorable Developments. The initial hospitality partnership covers approximately 15,000 potential customer locations within a national hotel management group and is expected to provide a foundation for long-term growth in the segment and adjacent industries. Notably, the company is building inventory and hiring experienced sales personnel to support growth. We believe its actions will drive meaningful growth in the hospitality segment, with meaningful contributions in the second half of 2025.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

The GEO Group (GEO) – 1Q25 Results Lag Estimates; but Growth Story Remains Intact

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q25 Results. Revenue of $604.9 million, compared to $605.7 million in 1Q24 and our $608 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $99.8 million, down from $117.6 million in 1Q24 and our $114 million estimate. GEO reported net income of $19.6 million, or EPS of $0.14, compared to $22.7 million, or $0.14/sh, in the same period last year.

Ready To Go. GEO remains poised to assist the Federal government in its immigration policies. We have previously discussed a number of new contracts for the Company, and we anticipate additional awards over the remainder of 2025. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

NN, Inc. (NNBR) – First Look at the First Quarter of 2025

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Commercial Traction Building. NN added $16.4 million of new business in the first quarter. The Company is well on pace to hit the lower end of its $60 to $70 million full-year target. NN continues to see positive traction in targeted markets, including medical, high-value automotive, and electrical components. Additionally, the Company’s commercial pipeline is strong at over $740 million.

Mixed Financial Start Amidst Transition. First quarter net sales came in at $105.7 million, compared to $121.2 million a year ago, with the decline primarily reflecting the Lubbock sale and rationalized business lines. On a pro forma basis, revenue was down just 1.3% year-over-year. Power Solutions declined to $43.5 million from $48.2 million in 2024 due to the sale of Lubbock. Mobile Solutions revenue fell to $62.2 million compared to $73.1 million during the same prior year period, due to the closing of the Juarez plant. Adjusted EBITDA was $10.6 million, slightly lower than last year’s $11.3 million and lower than our $11.6 million estimate. Adjusted EPS loss for the quarter improved year-over-year to $0.03 from a loss of $0.08.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – First Look into 2Q25

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 08, 2025

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Tempered Results. DLH reported fiscal second quarter 2025 results in-line with our projections. Financial results continue to be negatively impacted by small business set asides and the run off of acquired small business revenue. Despite these headwinds, DLH’s core services revenue remained strong as the Company delivered cutting-edge solutions in support of customers’ mission-critical work.

2Q25 Results. Revenue declined 11.7% to $89.2 million in 2Q25, driven by small business conversions, but was in-line with our $90 million projection. DLH’s adjusted EBITDA totaled $9.4 million, down from $10.2 million in 2Q24. We were at $9.75 million. Net income was $0.9 million, or $0.06/sh, compared to $1.6 million, or $0.12/sh, last year and our estimate of $1.0 million, or $0.07/sh.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail, Inc. (SNAL) – Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Favorable content updates. The company recently announced favorable developments that highlight the execution of its strategic initiatives to diversify revenue and drive player engagement. Notably, in April, the company released two new titles under its independent publishing label, Wandering Wizard, and provided new content in Ark: Survival Ascended (ASA) and Bellwright.

Driving player engagement. In April, the company released Eggcellent Adventure on ASA, an Easter themed seasonal event, and launched the Extinction map on Ark: Ultimate Mobile Edition. As a reminder, ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition was released in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. In our view, the new content releases are illustrative of its strategic initiatives to enhance player engagement.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.