Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which was 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of MariMed, Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $0.25 price target. MariMed is a cannabis brand powerhouse, in our view, with leading market shares in current markets and significant expansion potential both within existing markets and new greenfield markets.
MSO. With operations in six states, MariMed is a vertically integrated seed-to-sale cannabis provider. Following in the footsteps of successful consumer brands companies, MariMed has three market leading brands across its operations. We expect the Company to benefit from the growth of its brands in growing markets as well as the addition of new markets in Ohio, Illinois, and Delaware in 2025.
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Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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FY2025 Made Significant Progress. Unicycive reported a 4Q loss of $21.7 million or $(0.20) per share and a loss of $37.8 million or $(0.56) per share for FY2024. Cash on December 31, 2024 was $26.1 million. The most significant development, in our opinion, is the June 28, 2025, PFUFA date by which the FDA is required to answer to the Oxylanthanum (OLC) NDA.
OLC Launch is expected in Late 2025. The PDUFA date of June 28, 2025, is the statutory date by which the FDA is required to answer the NDA application. We expect OLC to be approved, based on its clinical trial data showing equivalence to lanthanum (Fosrenol, from Shire) with easier dosing, better patient compliance, and more patients reaching the target range for phosphate levels. An estimated 70% of the renal dialysis patients do not have adequate phosphate control. We believe its lower pill burden and improved patient compliance will lead to better outcomes with fewer morbidity events, leading to a strong market share.
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Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company discovering and developing novel antiviral therapeutics that target the replication process of influenza viruses, coronaviruses (including SARS-CoV-2), hepatitis C viruses and noroviruses. Cocrystal employs unique structure-based technologies and Nobel Prize-winning expertise to create first- and best-in-class antiviral drugs. For further information about Cocrystal, please visit www.cocrystalpharma.com.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Fourth Quarter and FY2024 Reported. Cocrystal reported a 4Q24 loss of $3.1 million or $(0.31) per share and a FY2024 loss of $17.5 million or $(1.72) per share. The company reviewed the progress it has made in 4Q24 and YTD with CC-988 for norovirus/coronavirus and with CPI-42344 for influenza. The cash balance on December 31, 2024, was $9.9 million.
Human Challenge Study Planned For CC-988 In Norovirus. Cocrystal is planning a human challenge study to test CC-988, its protease inhibitor for norovirus and coronaviruses. The new trial follows the results of the Phase 1 ascending dose studies announced in December 2024, showing safety and tolerability. Results from an additional high-dose cohort are expected in 2Q25. The Phase 2a human challenge study is expected to begin later in 2025.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Concession renewal in Ecuador. In March, Aurania filed the appropriate documentation for the 2025 renewal of its 42 mineral exploration concessions in southeastern Ecuador, along with a request to enter into an agreement for payment of the annual concession fees. The request was accepted, and the company is working with various governmental departments to negotiate an agreement. Aurania considers that by filing the concession renewals prior to the March 31 deadline, it maintains its property in Ecuador in good standing while a payment agreement is being finalized.
Kuri-Yawi IP geophysical survey. An induced polarization survey was completed at the Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target in late 2024. The survey confirmed the presence of a conductive area, which could be an epithermal conduit that Aurania has been targeting. Aurania’s geologists are currently studying and comparing data compiled to date from the IP survey, an airborne magnetic survey, field work, previous drilling data, and a MobileMT survey to define the best possible drill hole locations for a future drilling program.
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Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $26.2 million and $1.6 million, respectively. While revenue was modestly better than our estimate of $25.0 million, adj. EBITDA was a tad softer. Notably, the variance in adj. EBITDA was driven by an increased focus on in-house development, resulting in higher R&D costs. We view the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue stream as a favorable development.
Portfolio expansion. The company has been taking steps to offer more games and products that could drive revenue diversification. Notably, the company launched ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. Additionally, the company soft launched a new mobile app, SaltyTV, which offers original short film content. Furthermore, the company acquired eleven games in 2024, with several releases expected in 2025.
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Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q4 in line with previously revised guidance. Q4 and full year 2024 revenue of $9.1 million and $62.3 million, respectively, were in line with the company’s revised guidance but were below our expectations of $14.5 million and $67.7 million, respectively. Consequently, an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.4 million was below our estimate of a loss of $2.3 million. We believe that investors will likely focus on the revenue outlook, which appears encouraging.
A sanguine revenue outlook. Management highlighted recent client “wins”, which are expected to be reflected starting in Q2. We believe that this gave management confidence to provide full year 2025 revenue guidance of $90 million to $110 million. The high margin Buy Side segment is expected to be a key area of focus to grow revenue and achieve improved cash flow.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q Results. Revenue of $788 million rose 1.7% y-o-y, exceeded our expectation of $775 million, and was at the high end of guidance. Impacted by the revenue mix, gross margin of 31.9% was below our 33.3% projection. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $40.4 million, below our $52.5 million projection. Net income, aided by $21.8 million of favorable tax items, totaled $27.6 million, or $0.23/sh. Adjusted EPS was $0.26, up from $0.23 last year.
Promising Order Growth. Organic order growth in the fourth quarter was 9%, driven by a 12% increase in Americas orders and 1% International order growth. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year order growth in the Americas, reflecting continued gains in market share, in our view. Order growth was seen across most customer segments, with especially strong growth from large corporate and government customers.
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GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q24 Meets Expectations As Pipeline Advances. GeoVax reported 4Q24 loss of $8.3 million or $(0.88) per share and a loss of $25.0 million or $(4.82) per share for FY2024. The company updated its three clinical programs with CM04S1, the Gedeptin Phase 2, and the MVA program, which continue to make progress as expected. On December 31, 2024, cash on hand was $5.5 million, excluding the proceeds of a $4.5 million offering completed in March 2025.
Clinical Supplies Were Made for the CM04S1 Phase 2b BARDA Trial. Geovax has manufactured clinical supplies for the Phase 2b trial, testing CM04S1 as a booster for healthy adults who have received an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19. This trial is sponsored by a BARDA grant, with estimated revenues of $25 to $45 million for the company, plus about $350 million allocated for direct clinical trial expenses. The trial is now expected to begin late in 2025 to early 2026.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Investor webinar. Century Lithium recently discussed the Angel Island Lithium project during an insightful investor webinar. Key highlights included: 1) Angel Island is an advanced project with one of the largest lithium deposits in the United States, 2) the project employs a proven patent-pending process for chloride leaching, along with direct lithium extraction to produce lithium carbonate, 3) Century has a secured a 1,770 acre-feet per year water rights permit, and 4) the company has demonstrated its ability to consistently produce battery grade lithium carbonate on-site at its pilot plant in Amargosa Valley, Nevada.
Updated feasibility study. Century Lithium recently completed an initial internal optimization study of the project and identified potential cost reductions of up to 25%, or $395.2 million, associated with the project’s Phase I capital expenditures totaling $1,580.7 billion. We think additional cost-reduction measures could apply to the second and third production phases of the project. Century expects to complete an updated feasibility study as early as by year-end.
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Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $26.2 million and $1.6 million, respectively. While revenue was modestly better than our estimate of $25.0 million, adj. EBITDA was a tad softer, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, the variance in adj. EBITDA was driven by an increased focus on in-house development, resulting in higher R&D costs. We view the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue stream as a favorable development.
Portfolio expansion. The company has been taking steps to offer more games and products that could drive revenue diversification. Notably, the company launched ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. Additionally, the company soft launched a new mobile app, SaltyTV, which offers original short film content. Furthermore, the company acquired eleven games in 2024, with several releases expected in 2025.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
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Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Favorable revenue growth. The company reported 7% year-over-year revenue growth to $23.7 million, largely in line with our estimate of $24.0 million. The adj. EBITDA loss of $3.8 million was greater than our estimated loss of $2.1 million, due to gross margin compression resulting from a shift in product mix on the company’s lighting website.
Mandatory standardization application. Management noted that the company’s team responsible for applying the mandatory standardization to the National Electrical Code believes it will receive assistance from certain key organizations during its application process. This is due to the significant safety advantages of the company’s technology. We view this development favorably, as the prospect of mandatory standardization represents a potentially transformative revenue opportunity for the company.
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Tonix is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, licensing, acquiring and developing therapeutics and diagnostics to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. Tonix’s portfolio is composed of immunology, rare disease, infectious disease, and central nervous system (CNS) product candidates. Tonix’s immunology portfolio includes biologics to address organ transplant rejection, autoimmunity and cancer, including TNX-15001 which is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting CD40-ligand being developed for the prevention of allograft and xenograft rejection and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. A Phase 1 study of TNX-1500 is expected to be initiated in the second half of 2022. Tonix’s rare disease portfolio includes TNX-29002 for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome. TNX-2900 has been granted Orphan-Drug Designation by the FDA. Tonix’s infectious disease pipeline includes a vaccine in development to prevent smallpox and monkeypox called TNX-8013, next-generation vaccines to prevent COVID-19, and an antiviral to treat COVID-19. Tonix’s lead vaccine candidates for COVID-19 are TNX-1840 and TNX-18504, which are live virus vaccines based on Tonix’s recombinant pox vaccine (RPV) platform. TNX-35005 (sangivamycin, i.v. solution) is a small molecule antiviral drug to treat acute COVID-19 and is in the pre-IND stage of development. TNX-102 SL6, (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets), is a small molecule drug being developed to treat Long COVID, a chronic post-acute COVID-19 condition. Tonix expects to initiate a Phase 2 study in Long COVID in the second quarter of 2022. The Company’s CNS portfolio includes both small molecules and biologics to treat pain, neurologic, psychiatric and addiction conditions. Tonix’s lead CNS candidate, TNX-102 SL, is in mid-Phase 3 development for the management of fibromyalgia with a new Phase 3 study launched in the second quarter of 2022. Finally, TNX-13007 is a biologic designed to treat cocaine intoxication that is expected to start a Phase 2 trial in the second quarter of 2022. TNX-1300 has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
No Advisory Panel Required. Tonix has been informed that the FDA will not require an Advisory Committee Meeting to determine approvability of the NDA for Tonmya (TNX-102 SL). We see this as a sign that the NDA review has not raised questions about the clinical trial data, potential patient use, or other factors that would be answered by an Advisory Committee. Since the trial met its primary endpoint and all six secondary endpoints with high statistical significance, we interpret this to be a positive sign.
FDA Advisory Panel Hearings Evaluate and Provide Insight To Trial Data. As part of its NDA review process, the FDA may schedule an Advisory Committee hearing. The committee members each bring expertise in aspects of clinical practice, research, or statistical analysis. At a hearing, the company presents its analysis of the trial and the data, followed by the FDA’s analysis. The Committee members then ask questions to make recommendations for or against NDA approval and/or product labeling. We see the review without an Advisory Committee as a sign that the FDA does not need additional information on efficacy or safety.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
