cpereira@noblefcm.com, Author at Channelchek

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – $49.6 Million Contract for Unmanned Targets

Posted on February 1, 2023February 1, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, February 01, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

BQM-177A Targets. Last night, the Department of Defense announced it has awarded Kratos a $49.6 million firm-fixed-price contract for the production and delivery of 55 full rate production Lot 4 BQM-177A Surface Launched Aerial Targets. Included in the award are 55 rocket assisted takeoff attachment kits, 277 mission kits, and associated technical and administrative data. The work is being conducted for the U.S. Navy, as well as the governments of Canada and Australia. The contract is expected to be completed in April 2024.

Valkyrie Flying at Eglin. Eglin Air Force Base recently conducted an operational experimentation test flight of the Valkyrie. Recall, this past fall, two government-owned Kratos XQ-58A Valkyries were transferred to Eglin. Notably, Eglin is an Air Force base as opposed to the Yuma Proving Ground, were the majority of the Valkyrie testing has been done, which is operated by the Army. The resources available at Eglin are a major reason XQ-58A testing found a new home at the base. The Eglin Range communications support infrastructure will allow engineers at the ground station in the Central Control Facility to monitor the vehicle’s performance during flight.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Embarking on a New Era of Growth

Posted on February 1, 2023February 1, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, February 01, 2023

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another stellar quarter. Alliance reported fourth quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $293.9 million and $1.63, respectively, compared to $130.2 million and $0.40 during the prior year period. We had forecast net income and EPU of $272.8 million and $1.42. The partnership’s coal and oil & gas royalties segments performed stronger than expected due to higher volumes and commodity prices.

Updating estimates. We have increased our 2023 EBITDA and earnings per unit estimates to $1.18 billion and $5.90, respectively, from $1.12 billion and $5.85. Based on contracted coal sales volumes in 2023 and 2024, the outlook for cash flow growth appears favorable. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes are expected to benefit from recent acquisitions, including the purchase of 2,682 net oil and gas royalty acres in the Permian Basin which is expected to close shortly with an effective date of January 1, 2023.

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Sierra Metals (SMT:CA) – Bolivar Shines During an Otherwise Challenging Quarter

Posted on January 30, 2023January 30, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Monday, January 30, 2023

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth quarter and full year 2022 production. During the fourth quarter, Sierra Metals produced 6.2 million pounds of copper, 2.1 million pounds of lead, 6.4 million pounds of zinc, 3.4 thousand ounces of gold, and 570 thousand ounces of silver. Compared with the prior year period, production of copper and gold increased 2% and 83%, respectively, while lead, zinc, and silver declined 66%, 57%, and 29%. On a sequential basis, gold production increased 55%, while lead, zinc, silver, and copper declined 47%, 41%, 15%, and 2%, respectively. Compared to 2021, gold production in 2022 increased 6%, while lead, zinc, silver, and copper production declined 56%, 52%, 27%, and 15%, respectively. Copper equivalent production decreased 15% versus the prior quarter, 21% versus the prior year period, and 29% on a full year basis.

Operational performance. During the fourth quarter, Sierra achieved meaningful improvement at the Bolivar mine due to infrastructure upgrades and advances in the mine’s development work. Compared to the prior quarter, copper equivalent production increased 69% due to a 19% increase in throughput and improved head grades. While Cusi silver equivalent production was relatively flat relative to the prior quarter, an 11% increase in throughput helped offset the impact of lower grades and recoveries. Yauricocha performance was negatively impacted by a progressive restart of operations following a mudslide that led to the suspension of operations late in the third quarter.

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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – A Harbinger of Things to Come?

Posted on January 30, 2023January 30, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Monday, January 30, 2023

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Quarterly cash distribution increased 40%. For the December 2022 quarter, ARLP unit holders will receive a cash distribution of $0.70 per unit, or $2.80 on an annualized basis, payable on February 14, 2023 to unit holders of record as of the February 7, 2023 close. The announced distribution represents a 180% increase over the cash distribution of $0.25 per unit for the quarter ended December 31, 2021 and a 40% increase over the cash distribution of $0.50 per unit for the quarter ended September 30, 2022. We had assumed the quarterly cash distribution would be increased to $0.55.

Fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. ARLP will report financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 before the market opens on Monday, January 30, 2023. Management will host a conference call for investors at 10:00 am ET on the same day.

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Vera Bradley (VRA) – Streamlined Leadership

Posted on January 27, 2023January 27, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, January 27, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Streamlined Leadership. We had an opportunity to speak with Vera Bradley management about the recently announced streamlined corporate structure designed to drive cost savings, add more focus on marketing and merchandising, and position the Company to deliver steady top- and bottom-line growth. Ultimately, the new structure should produce annualized savings of over $2 million, on top of the $25 million of cost reductions previously identified.

Specifics. As part of the new structure, the Company eliminated the positions of Vera Bradley Brand President, Chief Creative Officer, and Chief Revenue Officer. The Company will add a position of Senior Vice President of Merchandising and Design for Vera Bradley. In addition, Alison Hiatt has joined the Company as Chief Marketing Officer to oversee digital marketing, customer data, and ecommerce. Ms. Hiatt is an accomplished consumer and marketing leader with a versatile and deep track record of success for several industry-leading brands.

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Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Comstock Receives a Federal Grant to Accelerate Domestic Biofuel Production

Posted on January 27, 2023January 27, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, January 27, 2023

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

U.S. Department of Energy grant. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced $118 million in funding for 17 projects to accelerate the production of sustainable biofuels. Comstock Inc. was awarded a $2 million grant to build a pre-pilot scale system to demonstrate one of Comstock’s unique new pathways to produce renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, gasoline, and marine fuel from forestry residues and other forms of lignocellulosic biomass. According to the DOE, the selected projects will drive the domestic production of biofuels and bioproducts by advancing biorefinery development, from pre-pilot to demonstration, to create sustainable fuels that reduce emissions associated with fossil fuels.

A world-class roster of grant participants. Comstock has assembled an impressive team of collaborators, including Haldor Topsoe Holding A/S, Marathon Petroleum Company LP, Novozymes A/S, Xylome Corporation, RenFuel K2B AB, Emerging Fuels Technology Inc., the University of Nevada, Reno, the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Natural Resources Research Institute, and the State University of New York’s College of Environmental Science and Forestry.

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Item 9 Labs (INLB) – Reports 4Q and Full Year 2022 Results

Posted on January 26, 2023January 26, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, January 26, 2023

Item 9 Labs Corp. (OTCQX: INLB) is a vertically integrated cannabis operator and dispensary franchisor delivering premium products from its large-scale cultivation and production facilities in the United States. The award-winning Item 9 Labs brand specializes in best-in-class products and user experience across several cannabis categories. The company also offers a unique dispensary franchise model through the national Unity Rd. retail brand. Easing barriers to entry, the franchise provides an opportunity for both new and existing dispensary owners to leverage the knowledge, resources, and ongoing support needed to thrive in their state compliantly and successfully. Item 9 Labs brings the best industry practices to markets nationwide through distinctive retail experience, cultivation capabilities, and product innovation. The veteran management team combines a diverse skill set with deep experience in the cannabis sector, franchising, and the capital markets to lead a new generation of public cannabis companies that provide transparency, consistency, and well-being. Headquartered in Arizona, the company is currently expanding its operations space by up to 640,000-plus square feet on its 50-acre site, one of the largest properties in Arizona zoned to grow and cultivate flower. For additional information, visit https://investors.item9labscorp.com/.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Results. Item 9 Labs filed its 10K last week for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2022. While the Company did not press release the results, we backed into the 4Q22 results which shows revenue of $4 million and a $15 million operating loss, driven by a $409,000 impairment charge and a $9.5 million loss on assets held for sale. Item 9 Labs recorded a net loss for the quarter of $18.4 million, or a loss of $0.19 per share. We had forecast revenue of $5.5 million, a $2.2 million operating loss, and a net loss of $3.9 million, or a loss of $0.04 per share.

Still Winning Awards. Item 9 Labs continues to pile up awards for its products, which we believe will not only help the Company through the current challenging market but also positions the Company for above average growth as the cannabis market rebounds. BDSA recognized Item 9 Labs as one of the top 10 cannabis brands in Arizona overall, along with top five placements across multiple vape categories.

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Bassett Furniture (BSET) – Solid 4Q22 but What About 2023?

Posted on January 26, 2023January 26, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Thursday, January 26, 2023

Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and retails home furnishings in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Logistical Services. It is involved in the design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of furniture products to a network of company-owned and licensee-owned Bassett Home Furnishings (BHF) retail stores, as well as independent furniture retailers; and wood and upholstery operations. As of September 16, 2017, the company operated a network of 91 company-and licensee-owned stores. It also provides shipping, delivery, and warehousing services to customers in the furniture industry. In addition, the company owns and leases retail store properties. It also distributes its products through other multi-line furniture stores, Bassett galleries or design centers, specialty stores, and mass merchants. Bassett Furniture Industries was founded in 1902 and is based in Bassett, Virginia.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Results. Basset reported revenue of $121 million for the fiscal fourth quarter, up 5.8% y-o-y, and above our $113 million estimate. Wholesale revenue declined 1.6% to $74.6 million, while Retail revenue rose 14.9% to $76.3 million. Operating income was $6.7 million, flat with the $6.6 million in 4Q21. Bassett reported net income of $5.0 million, or $0.55 per share, and $0.61 per share from continuing operations, compared to net income of $5.0 million, or $0.52 per share, and $0.49 per share from continuing operations, in the prior year. We had forecast EPS from continuing operations of $0.47.

Once Again, Retail the Star Performer. Continuing a trend, Bassett’s retail network was the quarter’s star performer, generating the fourth record quarter for the year, with fourth quarter deliveries of $76.3 million and $5.8 million of operating profit, more profitable than any previous comparable period on record.

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Element79 Gold Corp. (ELMGF) – Getting Their Sea Legs

Posted on January 25, 2023January 25, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Element79 Gold is a mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of mining properties for gold and associated metals. Element79 Gold has acquired its flagship Maverick Springs Project located in the famous gold mining district of northeastern Nevada, USA, between the Elko and White Pine Counties, where it has recently completed a 43-101-compliant, pit-constrained mineral resource estimate reflecting an Inferred resource of 3.71 million ounces of gold equivalent* “AuEq” at a grade of 0.92 g/t AuEq (0.34 g/t Au and 43.4 g/t Ag)) with an effective date of Feb. 4, 2022. The acquisition of the Maverick Springs Project also included a portfolio of 15 properties along the Battle Mountain trend in Nevada, which the Company is analyzing for further merit of exploration, along with the potential for sale or spin-out. In British Columbia, Element79 Gold has executed a Letter of Intent to acquire a private company which holds the option to 100% interest of the Snowbird High-Grade Gold Project, which consists of 10 mineral claims located in Central British Columbia, approximately 20km west of Fort St. James. In Peru, Element79 Gold has signed a letter of intent to acquire the business and assets of Calipuy Resources Inc., which holds 100% interest in the past-producing Lucero Mine, one of the highest-grade underground mines to be commercially mined in Peru’s history, as well as the past-producing Machacala Mine. The Company also has an option to acquire 100% interest in the Dale Property which consists of 90 unpatented mining claims located approximately 100 km southwest of Timmins, Ontario, Canada in the Timmins Mining Division, Dale Township.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

The new focus is focus. While acquisitions characterized the company’s development during the last two years, the company is now actively pursuing the sale, joint venture or spin-off of projects outside of the Maverick Springs project in Nevada and projects in Peru. The company is making progress toward closing the sale of its Long Peak, Stargo, Elder Creek, North Mill, and Elephant projects in Nevada.

Objectives for 2023. Plans associated with the company’s projects in Peru are nearly completed with the intention of beginning site work during the first calendar quarter of 2023. The company’s core focus is to commence preliminary production in Peru in 2023 to generate cash flow. With respect to the Maverick Springs project in Nevada, a re-logging, re-sampling, and petrographic program is planned to help define future drill targets.

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Defense Metals Corp. (DFMTF) – Last but Not Least

Posted on January 25, 2023January 25, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Defense Metals Corp. is a mineral exploration and development company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral deposits containing metals and elements commonly used in the electric power market, defense industry, national security sector and in the production of green energy technologies, such as, rare earths magnets used in wind turbines and in permanent magnet motors for electric vehicles. Defense Metals owns 100% of the Wicheeda Rare Earth Element Property located near Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. Defense Metals Corp. trades in Canada under the symbol “DEFN” on the TSX Venture Exchange, in the United States, under “DFMTF” on the OTCQB and in Germany on the Frankfurt Exchange under “35D”.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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2022 drill program. The 2022 resource expansion, delineation, and pit slope geotechnical drill program comprised 18 core drill holes totaling 5,510 meters. Defense Metals released results for the remaining two drill holes, representing 295 meters of drilling, completed during 2022. Assay results have been released for all 18 holes drilled during the 2022 program.

Recent assay results. Recent results were from two exploration geotechnical core drill holes, one of which returned the best drill intercept, on a grade-times-width basis, of the entire 2022 drilling program. Defense Metals expects to update the Wicheeda mineral resource to include results from 10,859 meters of drilling in 47 core holes completed during the 2021 and 2022 drilling programs that were not included in the preliminary economic assessment (PEA).

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Cypress Development (CYDVF) – Feasibility Study On Track for Mid-Year 2023 Completion; Corporate Name Change

Posted on January 25, 2023January 25, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Corporate name change. Cypress Development’s Board of Directors approved a corporate name change to Century Lithium Corp. which is subject to approval by the TSX Venture Exchange (TSXV). While the TSXV ticker symbol will change, the ticker symbol on the OTCQX will not. Cypress will issue a news release announcing the date that trading under the new name, symbol, and CUSIP number will commence. We think the new name will help increase awareness among investors given that it more closely identifies the company with its mission.

Feasibility study expected by the end of 2Q 2023. The feasibility study for the Clayton Valley Lithium project is advancing on schedule with completion anticipated by mid-year. On-site infrastructure designs, including mine, processing plant and tailings, and waste storage facilities are completed. Cost and market studies are underway, along with assessments for construction, component lead-time and off-site infrastructure. Efforts are being made to initiate federal, state, and local permitting for the project, along with an evaluation of associated infrastructure.

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Cumulus Media (CMLS) – A Tough Year On The Horizon

Posted on January 25, 2023January 25, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Tough comps ahead. The conventional investment scenario is to expect a weak first half of 2023 and a stronger second half. However, we believe the absence of high margin political advertising and the dissolution of the WynnBet partnership calls for a more conservative outlook for 2023. In our view, there are troubling near term signs for the company that have led us to take a more sober outlook for 2023.

Economic headwinds and National advertising. Weakness in National advertising continues to be prevalent as macroeconomic headwinds persist. Additionally, we believe Local advertising is starting to show weakness.

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Axcella Therapeutics (AXLA) – Long COVID Phase 2b/3 Trial Changes The AXA1125 Outlook

Posted on January 25, 2023January 25, 2023 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Axcella is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering a new approach to treat complex diseases using compositions of endogenous metabolic modulators (EMMs). The company’s product candidates are comprised of EMMs and derivatives that are engineered in distinct combinations and ratios to restore cellular homeostasis in multiple key biological pathways and improve cellular energetic efficiency. Axcella’s pipeline includes lead therapeutic candidates in Phase 2 development for the treatment of Long COVID and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and the reduction in risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) recurrence. The company’s unique model allows for the evaluation of its EMM compositions through non-IND clinical studies or IND clinical trials. For more information, please visit www.axcellatx.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Regulators Agree With Axcella’s Plan For A Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial. Axcella Heath announced that US and UK regulators have agreed to a plan for a global Phase 2b/3 study of AXA1125 in Long COVID-19 patients. An IND has been submitted to the FDA for trials in the US, and agreement from the UK regulators has been received. The Phase 2b/3 trial will include other countries to support worldwide approvals. We see this as an important milestone for AXA1125 and the future of the company.

The Trial Announcement Reduces Uncertainty Around AXA1125. As discussed in our Research Note on August 3, results from the Phase 2a trial in Long COVID showed a significant improvement in the physical fatigue, mental fatigue, and the 6-minute walk test. In December 2022, the company restructured to preserve cash, raising uncertainty about further development for the drug. The announcement of the Phase 2b/3 IND submission provides a development plan, allowing investors to assess timeframes and progress toward the market.

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