Noble Capital Markets SPACtrac Report Thursday, March 02, 2023
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
The Deal. Better World Acquisition Corp. will be merging with Heritage Distilling Company, Inc. in a deal that will bring Heritage Distilling public. The deal, which values Heritage Distilling at an enterprise value of $122.2 million, provides growth capital to achieve Heritage Distilling’s aim to become the leading national craft spirits company.
The Target. Founded in 2012, Heritage Distilling is a leading, fast-growing distiller of innovative premium brands, with a history of award winning, innovative products. The Company is expanding its wholesale footprint nationwide in conjunction with RNDC, the second largest spirits distributor in the U.S., while its proprietary Tribal Beverage Network provides the potential of developing a “local” presence across the nation that will generate high margin, tax advantaged recurring revenue license streams.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Boca Raton, FL, March 1, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In a joint statement, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”) and Florida Atlantic University announced today that NobleCon19 – Noble’s 19th Annual Small Cap Investor Conference – will be held at the University’s College of Business Executive Education facility, Dec. 3-5, 2023, in Boca Raton, Florida. The 52,000 square foot, state-of-the-art facility was opened August 2020.
Noble has worked with the University for over a decade and was instrumental in the development of their Financial Analyst Program, and Noble’s Intern Program has generated great assets with graduates from the University. “We are extremely proud of our long-standing relationship with Florida Atlantic University,” said Nico Pronk, Noble’s President & CEO. “This new collaboration certainly elevates it to a whole new level.”
Vegar Wiik, Executive Director of the College of Business, Executive Education agrees, stating “Our vision for the College and this magnificent structure is to effectively integrate our curriculum with established businesses. Daniel Gropper, dean of FAU’s College of Business, said the financial industry is an important, integral part of the economy. “I can’t think of a better way to expose our students to the importance of emerging growth companies than to have 100 plus executive teams in the halls of our campus,” he said.
The entire College of Business Executive Education facility will transform into NobleCon19. Each presentation room will accommodate investors, in tiered seating with personal monitors. High-definition cameras, full-room microphones (to capture audience questions), three large screens, and full webcasting capabilities will offer the most technologically advanced conference environment on the circuit. Attendees will also experience similarly equipped rooms for panel presentations, private breakouts, and meetings, and in large gathering spaces, both indoors and out, as well as 800 free covered parking spaces. Florida Atlantic University is centrally located in Boca Raton, off I-95, only minutes from the Boca Raton Airport, and less than half an hour from Fort Lauderdale International Airport. Privaira, located at Boca Raton Airport is the official private air charter company for NobleCon19. A wide range of hotel accommodations are available within a five-mile radius, from economy to the ultra-luxurious “The Boca Raton.” Noble will be working with several properties to offer NobleCon19 attendees discounted rates.
The format of NobleCon will include company presentations followed by fire-side chats with Noble analysts, and select one-on-one meetings for qualified investors only, as well as several industry panel presentations. On the networking side, Noble is planning for informative keynote speakers and live entertainment, in an effort expand the business day in a more casual, conversational environment. All company presentations and panel discussions will be digitally streamed and made available exclusively on www.channelchek.com – Noble’s proprietary investment community portal.
Who should attend? Public companies from any business sector with market capitalizations of below $3-4 billion. Private companies planning a capital raise, considering becoming public, or an M&A event. NobleCon19 will suit every level of investor; high net worth individuals, family offices, self-directed investors, private equity, RIAs, financial advisors, equity analysts, and institutional investors. www.NobleCon19.com
About Florida Atlantic University
Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.
About Noble Capital Markets
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 as a full-service SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer, dedicated exclusively to serving underfollowed emerging growth companies through investment banking, wealth management, trading & execution, and equity research activities. Over the past 39 years, Noble has raised billions of dollars for companies and published more than 45,000 equity research reports. www.noblecapitalmarkets.comcontact@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Webinar. BIO (Biotechnology Innovation Organization, an industry group) sponsored a webinar titled, “Long COVID: What Will It Take To Accelerate Therapeutic Progress?” Speakers included officials from government, academia, and drug development companies to discuss the scientific basis of the condition, its public health implications, and its potential treatments. Presenting companies included Axcella Health (AXLA) and Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP).
Long COVID Symptoms and Prevalence. The program began with how Long COVID became recognized as a condition, its incidence, and its patient population. Scientific presentations showed the biological effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on cells in the body, including the connection between Long COVID and other chronic conditions such as CFS/ME (chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis). Symptoms and their duration can vary widely, including inflammation, fatigue, organ dysfunction, and reactivation of latent viral reservoirs. The presenters agreed that the range of symptoms and their variability will require numerous drugs.
Axcella Health Presented AXA1125. Chief Scientific Officer at Axcella Health, Dr. Margaret Koziel, presented the scientific basis for the use of AXA1125 in Long COVID, including its effects on inflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and fatigue. Data from the Phase 2a trial was presented, showing improvements in function, and biomarkers that correlate with reductions in inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction. The design of the Phase 2b/3 trial was also presented.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Presented Data From TNX-102 SL. Tonix is currently enrolling patients in its Phase 2 PREVAIL trial testing TNX-102 SL, sublingual cyclobenzaprine, in Long COVID. This trial is based on common symptoms with fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome, such as pain, fatigue, and insomnia. Projected enrollment is about 470 patients with a primary endpoint of change in daily pain score from baseline over the 14-week treatment period.
Conclusion. The BIO webinar speakers agreed that the high variability and large population would require several drugs to adequately treat patients. For Axcella, we believe the presentation could raise awareness of AXA1125 and its “Phase 2b/3 Ready” status, allowing it obtain trial funding through partnerships, government funding, or from investors. Tonix was able to present how TNX-102 SL overlaps with other pain syndromes and how it could treat symptoms, as well as to highlight its clinical milestones in the coming year.
Summary. BIO (Biotechnology Innovation Organization, and industry group) sponsored a webinar titled, “Long COVID: What Will It Take To Accelerate Therapeutic Progress?” Speakers included officials from government, academia, and drug development companies to discuss the scientific basis of the condition, its public health implications, and its potential treatments. Presenting companies included Axcella Health (AXLS) and Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP).
The program began with the history of Long COVID, how it became recognized as a condition, and its prevalence. Scientific presentations discussed the SARS-CoV-2 viral infection and its effects on different organs, as well as the mechanisms of infection that lead to fatigue, cerebral effects (brain fog), and chronic pain. The speakers pointed out that the range and severity of symptoms can vary widely, making it likely that numerous drugs will be needed.
The overlap between Long COVID and other chronic conditions, such as CFS/ME (chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis), was also discussed. The common features in these conditions were cited in the “National Research Action Plan on Long COVID”, published by the Department of Health and Human Services in August 2022.
Axcella Health Spoke About AXA1125. Chief Scientific Officer at Axcella Health, Dr. Margaret Koziel, presented the scientific basis for the use of AXA1125 in Long COVID, including its effect on inflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, epithelial dysfunction, and fatigue. Data from the Phase 2a trial was presented, showing improvements in physical and mental function. These data included biomarkers that correlate with improvements in inflammation and mitochondrial function. The design of the Phase 2b/3 trial was also presented.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Presented Data From TNX-102 SL. Tonix is currently enrolling patients in its Phase 2 PREVAIL trial testing TNX-102 SL, sublingual cyclobenzaprine, in Long COVID. This trial is based on common symptoms with fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome, such as pain, fatigue, and insomnia. Projected enrollment is about 470 patients with a primary endpoint of change in daily pain score from baseline over the 14-week treatment period.
TNX-102 SL showed positive results in its Phase 3 RELIEF study in fibromyalgia, although the confirmatory Phase 3 RALLY missed its primary endpoint. After analyzing the RALLY trial, the Phase 3 RESILIENT trial began. An interim analysis from the RESILIENT trial is expected in 2Q23.
Conclusion. The BIO webinar gave different perspectives on Long COVID and discussed different approaches to treatment. For Axcella, we believe the presentation could raise awareness of AXA1125 data and its “Phase 2b/3” ready status, allowing it obtain trial funding through partnerships, government funding, or from investors. For Tonix, presentations on the common features of Long COVID and chronic pain syndromes support the use of Tonix’s TNX-102 SL, and show how its Phase 2 PREVAIL clinical trial design could become an effective treatment.
All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.
This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.
Company Specific Disclosures
The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report. Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months
ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
WARNING
This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..
RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Overview: Entertainment and Leisure stocks have had a good start to the New Year, but the better performance has not erased the disaster that was 2022. We believe that stocks appear to be baking in a mild economic downturn, a soft landing, so to speak. Given that we are skeptic of the conventional thought, we take a cautious stance regarding the recent lift in valuations and encourage investors to take an accumulation approach.
Entertainment:Bowlero on a roll. The Noble Entertainment Index performed well, up 1.5% in the last 12 months, compared with negative returns for the S&P 500 (-7.1%). Although there were broad economic challenges over the past year, entertainment companies benefited from the general public’s return to “normal” following the COVID pandemic. We believe that in-person experiential entertainment recovery is still in its early stage and should continue into 2024.
Gaming: Looking for value in the rubble.The Noble Gaming Index is down 53.1% in the past year, well below the S&P 500, down 7.1%. But, recently, the Noble Gaming Index increased 12.9% in the last quarter, outperforming the 3.2% increase in the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. A reflex bounce? Short squeeze? Or, were the shares oversold? We encourage investors to play it safe.
Esports: Motorsport Games revs its engine. The company was full steam ahead in investing in its new product launches in 2023, but it was running out of cash. Fortunately, a couple of favorable moves to add liquidity set the stock soaring, up 1,600% in one day, creating further opportunities to raise cash. Now, flush with cash, investors look toward the product rollouts.
Leisure: Travel to new heights. The U.S. Travel Association updated its 2023 outlook, projecting a resilient domestic leisure travel market. Consumers appear eager to splurge on travel, in spite of the economic headwinds. We focus on one of our favorite internet media plays, Travelzoo. The company recently updated Fourth Quarter 2022 guidance with revenues expected to be roughly $18.5 million, a strong 31% increase year over year.
Overview
Have economic prospects improved?
The Entertainment & Leisure industries performed better since the beginning of the year, providing some relief to the downturn that investors suffered in 2022. As Figure #1 Entertainment 12 Month Trailing Stock Performance highlights, the Entertainment and Leisure Indices are still recovering and many have yet to offset the 2022 declines, except for the Entertainment stocks. The Entertainment stocks not only have performed well in the first quarter, but have beat the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index over the past year. The Noble Entertainment Index is up a modest 1.5% in the past year, better than the general market’s 7.1% decline. It is important to note that the Noble Indices are market cap weighted. As such, not all stocks reflected the favorable relative performance.
What is driving the improved stock performance in the latest quarter? We believe that investors have become more positive about the economic outlook, with conventional wisdom now anticipating a soft economic landing or a mild economic recession. This is a shift toward an optimistic tone from one that anticipated a severe economic recession. The Federal Reserve caused the dire outlook. The Fed signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is arrested, in spite of the adverse impact on the economy and jobs. But, since then, conventional wisdom on the economy has brightened as inflation seems to have subsided. The more favorable economic outlook is exemplified by a Wall Street firm that decreased the risk of an economic recession in 2023 by a sizable 25%.
We tend to be skeptics and conservative. As such, we tend not to buy into strength. Our view is that the stocks were oversold and reflected recessionary type valuations. But, have the economic prospects really improved that much? We encourage investors to take an accumulation approach, focusing on some of our favorite stocks highlighted in this report, including Bowlero, Codere Online Luxembourg, Engine Gaming and Media, and Travelzoo.
Figure #1 Entertainment 12 Month Trailing Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Entertainment
Bowlero on a roll
The Noble Entertainment Index performed well, up 1.5% in the last 12 months, compared with negative returns for the S&P 500 down 7.1%. Although there were broad economic challenges over the past year, entertainment companies benefited from the general public’s return to “normal” following the COVID pandemic. We believe that the trend toward social gathering and in-person activities are helping to offset broader macroeconomic headwinds. While some industries received a boost during late 2020 and 2021 when consumers were spending stimulus checks on online shopping, the recovery for in-person entertainment has been more recent. In our view, the recovery in experiential, in-person entertainment appears to be gaining traction and the recovery could continue into 2024.
As Figure #2 Entertainment Revenue Growth illustrates, virtually all of the experiential entertainment companies reported strong revenue growth in the latest reported quarter, (the calendar third quarter end September 2022). One of the examples of the in-person recovery is in bowling centers, in general, and Bowlero, specifically. The company recently announced that it eclipsed $1 billion in Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) revenue as of December 31, 2022, which included 48% same store sales growth over the prior year. Additionally, Bowlero added 40 bowling centers over the past 18 months as it continues to successfully execute on its roll-up strategy. As revenues have improved, so too have margins. As Figure #3 Entertainment EBITDA Marginsillustrates, Bowlero delivered industry leading margins in the latest reported quarter at 24.8%.
Bowlero is on a roll. With the BOWL shares up roughly 50% in the past 12 months, the shares have outperformed both the Noble Entertainment Index up 1.5%, as well as the broader market, as measured by the S&P 500, which decreased -7.1%. In spite of the favorable fundamental tailwind, the shares trade in line with its experiential entertainment peers. Figure #4 Entertainment Comparables illustrates that the BOWL shares trade at 9.7 times Enterprise Value to our estimated 2023 adj. EBITDA, below the peer average of 10.7 times, despite the company’s industry leading fundamentals. Given its favorable fundamental outlook, prospects for enhanced revenue and cash flow growth through acquisitions and favorable internal growth, and compelling stock valuation, the BOWL shares lead our list for favorites in the Entertainment industry.
Figure #2 Entertainment Revenue Growth
Source: Company 10Qs
Figure #3 Entertainment EBITDA Margins
Source: Company 10Qs
Figure #4 Entertainment Comparables
Source: Company filings and Noble estimates
Gaming
Looking for value in the rubble
The Noble Gaming Index is down 53.1% in the past year, well below the S&P 500, down 7.1%. In our view, the poor performance of Gaming stocks was the result of investors trying to take risk off the table. Many Gaming companies are still in developmental stages, with high marketing and customer acquisition costs. As such, many in the industry are unprofitable and rely on the balance sheets to fund operations. Before Covid, these companies benefited from the easy money policies and favorable capital markets, which many relied on for funding. But, with the recent sharp rise in interest rates and difficult general market conditions to raise capital, the music has stopped. Gaming stock valuations are now more scrutinized, in an environment of increasing cost of capital. As such, we believe industry players that are already profitable, and those with little to no debt and ample cash on the balance sheet are best positioned for to lead the industry.
Our focus is on the shares of Codere Online Luxembourg, CDRO. The CDRO shares are down 42.4% in the last year, underperforming the S&P 500’s -7.1% return. However, despite a tough 12-month period, the CDRO shares outperformed the Noble Gaming Index, which dropped 53.1%. We believe that the relative outperformance of the CDRO shares over the past year reflects its better financial position than most of its peers. Most recently, the Noble Gaming Index improved, as illustrated in Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance. The Noble Gaming Index increased 12.9%, outperforming the 3.2% increase in the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. A reflex bounce? Short squeeze? Or, were the shares oversold? It appears to be all the above for many of the stocks in the index. The largest gains were from companies that appeared to be struggling and had favorable news. We believe that investing in struggling companies with limited access to capital is a dangerous place to be.
In terms of Codere Online Luxembourg, the fundamentals of the company appear favorable. Codere Online’s cash burn has been within expectations and the company had a strong cash balance of €72 million and virtually no long-term debt as of September 30, 2022. As such, the company appears positioned to continue executing its growth strategy in Latin America, which for the time being consists of broadening its presence in key markets such as Mexico and Columbia, and aggressively expanding in Argentina.
The company’s growth could be bolstered if Brazil begins regulating sports betting in 2023. Importantly, Entain CEO Jette Nygaard-Anderson, recently stated that she expects Brazil to complete process of regulating sports betting in 2023, citing new administration of President Lula. In summary, Codere Online is distinguished from many of its peers, with an established foothold in key Latin American markets, flush with cash to penetrate existing markets and enter new ones. It has the ability to become the industry leader in many of its markets.
Near current levels, the iGaming industry peer group is trading at 5.0 times Enterprise Value to 2023 revenues, illustrated in Figure #6 Gaming Comparables. Codere Online Luxemburg (CDRO) is one of our favorite plays in the iGaming industry due to several factors. As mentioned above, the company has virtually no long-term debt and €72 million in cash, as of September 30, 2022. We believe that the company has a favorable runway to reach cash flow breakeven while continuing to fund its expansion in the meantime. Furthermore, in our view, given its ability to invest in its developing markets, the company appears to have the ability to become the preeminent online gambling leader in many Latin American markets. Finally, the CDRO shares appear compelling, trading near 2.6 times expected 2023 revenue, well below peers. As a result, we view the CDRO shares as among our favorite online gambling plays, with the shares rated Outperform with $9 price target.
Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #6 Gaming Comparables
Source: Company filings and Noble estimates
Esports
Motorsport revs its engine
The Noble Esports Index was down 53% over the past year, underperforming the broader market, which was down 7%, as as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Not unlike many other emerging industries, Esports has been battered by macroeconomic headwinds over the past year. Investors are placing more importance on companies that are generating positive cash flow, rather than speculating on future profitability, given recessionary concerns and elevated interest rates. While the Esports industry has shown favorable trends in the number of viewers and hours watched, many companies are still burning cash and may need to raise additional capital. Total hours watched of esports content was up 40% in Q3 of 2022, illustrated in Figure #7 Esports Viewership.
The best performing stock in the Esports index was HUYA, which only declined by 9.7% on a TTM basis. Huya is the largest Esports live streaming platform in China and recently expanded into a variety of real-time events. Huya benefits from the favorable growth trends of the Esports and live streaming industries, as it does not rely on the popularity of a single game or tournament. The worst performing stock in the Esports index is Esports Entertainment Group (GMBL), which declined 97.2% on a TTM basis. The company burned through its cash and had limited access to additional capital.
In the latest quarter, however, the Noble Esports Index rebounded, up a strong 47.9%, as depicted in the earlier in Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance. The strength in the quarter was due to a relatively few number of stocks, including HUYA (up 135.8%) and two of our favorite plays, Motorsport Games (MSGM) and Engine Gaming and Media (GAME), which increased 68.9% and 149.8%, respectively. In fact, Motorsport Games increased a stunning 1,618.8% with a trading day following news of a debt for equity swap.
Motorsport Games revs its engine
Motorsport Games is a publisher of motorsport video games, with the rights to iconic racing franchises such as NASCAR and 24 Hour of LeMans. The company recently completed a debt for equity swap which led to a surprisingly strong increase in the stock valuation. This allowed the company to complete several direct offerings, eliminating all company debt and raising over $11 million in cash. The capital raise alleviated liquidity concerns, allowing the company to continue developing games. In our view, the launch of several games in 2023 should allow the company to swing toward cash flow break even. We have moved our rating to Market Perform given that the shares blew through our $9 price target. Our rating is under review as the company updates investors on its product rollout roadmap and the level of cash burn until it launches its upcoming products.
Engine Gaming & Media
Another one of our favorites is Engine Gaming & Media (GAME). Engine Gaming & Media is a multi-platform media company engaged in most aspects of the Esports industry. The company’s media division coordinates video access and advertising, data analytics, and connects advertisers to social influencers in the gaming industry. Figure #7 Esports Viewership and Figure #8 Esports Live Streaming are from Stream Hatchet, the company’s live streaming data and Esports analytics business.
The company reported its fiscal first quarter results on January 17, 2023, which beat our expectations. Notably, the company’s influencer and gaming analytics software as a service revenue, a key growth vehicle, grew revenue by a strong 34.6% on a year over year basis. In addition, the company plans to merge with GameSquare Esports, which it expects will provide scale and provide cost synergies. Management indicated that the combination should accelerate the new company’s path toward profitability. We plan to update our models as more details emerge regarding the upcoming merger.
Figure #9 Esports Comparables highlight the stock valuations in the Esports industry. The valuations of many of the stocks, including Motorsport Games and Engine Gaming and Media are in flux. As mentioned, Motorsport Games significantly improved its financial position with recent equity raises and debt for equity swaps. Engine Gaming and Media’s fundamentals likely will change with a planned merger. In our view, the latest quarter has been a watershed moment for these companies. We look forward toward reevaluating our models, ratings and price targets upon more details on the developments from the respective companies.
Figure #7 Esports Viewership
Source: Stream Hatchet
Figure #8 Esports Live Streaming
Source: Stream Hatchet
Figure #9 Esports Comparables
Source: Company filings and Noble estimates
Leisure
Travel to new heights
Once again, we focus on the travel industry in our Leisure section due to some favorable developments and outlook. Notably, the U.S. Travel Foundation forecasts an increase in travel spending in 2023 above both 2022 and 2019 levels. This would indicate that the travel industry has fully recovered from the depressed Covid impacted levels. Airline flights are full and there is high demand for hotels, even though pricing for those rooms are significantly higher. What is driving the demand and will it continue?
For the U.S., there are three factors influencing the relatively favorable outlook for the U.S. travel industry. The domestic leisure travel has been resilient in spite of higher gas prices, hotel rooms and airline tickets. A recent article from Forbes suggests that U.S. leisure travel is rebounding despite inflation as it is one area where people are willing to splurge. A second contributing factor to the favorable outlook is Business travel. Business travel is expected to be somewhat weaker in 2023 given the prospect of a mild economic recession in 2023. But, the business travel outlook is improved as a severe economic downturn appears less likely. The weak area has been international inbound travel to the U.S. We believe that this is a function of the strong U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies. On the flip side, international travel from the U.S. appears to be favorable given the U.S. dollar strength.
We believe that the inflationary trends, higher airline fares and hotel rates, as well as sluggish international travel, all have prompted travelers to seek travel deals. Consequently, one of our favorite plays on the travel industry, Travelzoo, has seen fundamental improvement. As an internet media company, its business is derived from its advertisers and travel partners to offer travel deals to its customers. This is different from travel suppliers and online travel agencies that rely on travel demand. Notably, Travelzoo recently updated its fourth quarter revenue guidance to be roughly $18.5 million, an increase of a strong 31% year over year, in line with our forecast.
Travelzoo is one of our favorite plays for the recovering travel industry. The shares are down roughly 46% in the past year, which we believe could present an attractive entry point for investors. Since reaching lows in December near $4.11 per share, the TZOO shares have rallied, up roughly 25% since that time. In our view, the shares may have reacted to a recent merger involving its founder, Ralph Bartel. The merger brought with it an influx of cash, but increased Mr. Bartels ownership of the company from slightly over 50% to over 60%. We view the move favorably as it provides increase liquidity for the company. Given the prospect for a favorable environment for travel deals, we view Travelzoo as among our favored ways to play the travel industry and the subsequent improved advertising from its travel partners. We rate the shares Outperform with a $9 price target.
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All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.
This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG), founded in 2001 and based in the City of Industry, Calif., near Los Angeles, is a leading global online retailer for PC hardware, consumer electronics, gaming peripherals, home appliances, automotive and lifestyle technology. Newegg also serves businesses’ e-commerce needs with marketing, supply chain and technical solutions in a single platform. For more information, please visit Newegg.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We believe Newegg has a platform that is positioned to benefit from a fast-growing e-commerce vertical, namely, electronics. The company’s platforms serve both B2B and B2C customers on an international scale, reaching more than 20 countries. Moreover, the company has additional growth opportunities through expansion into other e-commerce verticals.
Growing e-commerce market. The global retail e-commerce market is expected to grow at 13.5% CAGR from 2019-2026. Notably, the North American technology e-commerce market, Newegg’s area of focus, is expected to grow even faster, at 25% CAGR over the same period.
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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updating estimates. While our 2023 earnings per unit estimate is unchanged at $5.90, we have made several adjustments in our model resulting in a modest reduction in EBITDA to $1.14 billion from $1.18 billion. Operating, depreciation, depletion and amortization, and general and administration expenses were increased, while net interest expense and income tax expense were lowered. Estimates for certain line items are now more aligned with management guidance.
Attractive total return potential. In our view, the stock price did not respond in line with the partnership’s outstanding fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results, along with the 40% increase in its quarterly cash distribution per unit to $0.70 or $2.80 on an annualized basis. The indicated distribution rate represents a 12.6% yield based on the recent closing price and an 8.75% yield based on our price target of $32 per unit implying total return potential of greater than 50%.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Baudax Bio is a pharmaceutical company focused on innovative products for acute care settings. ANJESO is the first and only 24-hour, intravenous (IV) COX-2 preferential non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) for the management of moderate to severe pain. In addition to ANJESO, Baudax Bio has a pipeline of other innovative pharmaceutical assets including two novel neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBs) and a proprietary chemical reversal agent specific to these NMBs. For more information, please visit www.baudaxbio.com.
Gregory Aurand, Senior Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Phase II Trial For Patients Undergoing Elective Surgery. TheBX1000 neuromuscular blocker is an intermediate-duration agent (~45 minutes) enrolling 80 patients in a Phase II trial. The randomized, double-blind, active-controlled IV-administered clinical trial compares three different doses of BX1000 (0.15 mg/kg IV, 0.25 mg/kg IV, 0.35 mg/kg IV) to a standard dose (0.6 mg/kg IV) of rocuronium, a standard of care blocking agent. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05687253)
Primary Endpoints And Secondary Endpoints. The primary endpoints assess the time frame needed to reach intubation conditions (time frame is within 2 minutes of administration) and also assess, using a standardized scale (Poor, Good, Excellent), the proportion of patients meeting Good or Excellent conditions. Secondary endpoints assess the safety and tolerability profile of BX1000.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Harte Hanks (NASDAQ: HHS) is a leading global customer experience company whose mission is to partner with clients to provide them with CX strategy, data-driven analytics and actionable insights combined with seamless program execution to better understand, attract, and engage their customers. Using its unparalleled resources and award-winning talent in the areas of Customer Care, Fulfillment and Logistics, and Marketing Services, Harte Hanks has a proven track record of driving results for some of the world’s premier brands including Bank of America, GlaxoSmithKline, Unilever, Pfizer, HBOMax, Volvo, Ford, FedEx, Midea, Sony, and IBM among others. Headquartered in Chelmsford, Massachusetts , Harte Hanks has over 2,500 employees in offices across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific .
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q4 Preview. Fundamentals at the company appear favorable and Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates appear to be on target. We are adjusting our EPS estimate to reflect the repurchase of its convertible preferred shares with Wipro. The agreement was for liquidation value at $9.9 million, plus 100,000 HHS shares. Due to an accounting treatment, the company is expected to report a non cash $1.6 million loss on the repurchase. We are adjusting our Q4 EPS from $0.34 to $0.12 to reflect this charge.
Q1 Outlook. The company’s first quarter revenue mix is expected to skew toward lower margin revenue business, plus the company is expected to spend more heavily on technology investments and for the integration of a recent acquisition, InsideOut. Q1 revenues are expected to increase year over year, but Adj. EBITDA is expected to be lower.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
We saved you the trip! Last month, Noble Capital Markets’ equity analysts and investment bankers attended the most important healthcare investment symposium in the industry which connects global industry leaders, emerging fast-growth companies, innovative technology creators and members of the investment community. They attended meetings, networking events and interviewed c-suite executives. They shared their collective takeaways and interviewed a selection of the company executives during this virtual event presented by Channelchek. The next best thing to being there! Watch the replays below:
Noble Capital Markets Equity Analysts Robert LeBoyer and Greg Aurand provide their takeaways from the conference along with some industry outlook for 2023 and beyond.
The S&P 500 increased by 7% during the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the first time the Index had increased since fourth quarter of 2021. We also saw signs of life in two of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices: Noble’s eSports and iGaming Index increased (+13%) and outperformed the broader market (which we define as the S&P 500) while Noble’s MarTech Index also increased (+6%), roughly in-line with the market. This marked the second quarter in a row in which the eSports and iGaming Index not only increased but significantly outperformed the broader market, following several quarters of underperformance. Laggards during the fourth quarter were Noble’s Digital Media Index (-5%), Social Media Index (-7%) and Ad Tech Index (-20%).
Noble Indices are market cap weighted, and we attribute the relative strength of the eSports and iGaming Index to its largest constituent, Flutter Entertainment (ISE: FLTR). Flutter shares finished the year at $127.80, down only 8% from the start of the year, despite trading as low as $76 per share in mid-July. Investors appear to appreciate Flutter’s FanDuel business and its market leading position and competitive advantage, something that Flutter management highlighted during a November Investor Day. Management also laid out a case to increase U.S. revenues by 5x and achieve margins of 25%-30% implying EBITDA of up to $5 billion in 8 years-time, quadruple its levels today. Despite the overall strength of the eSports and iGaming Index, share price gains within the sector were not widely dispersed. Only 3 of the 16 stocks in eSports and iGaming sector finished the quarter up, including Engine Gaming and Media (GAME, +71%) and SportRadar Group (SRAD; +13%).
Noble’s MarTech Index increased by 6% with 11 of the 22 stocks in the index posting gains, led by Yext (YEXT; +46%), Shopify (SHOP; +29%), LiveRamp (RAMP; +29%) and Adobe (ADBE; +22%). This marks significant improvement from last quarter when only 4 of the sectors’ stocks finished the quarter in positive territory. MarTech stocks have suffered from a market resetting of revenue multiples which began when the Fed began raising rates. MarTech share price declines in the first, second and third quarters of 2022 were mostly driven by multiple compression as investors rotated out of high-flying tech sectors where companies had chased growth at all costs (at the expense of profitability). Only 7 of the MarTech companies in the Index posted positive EBITDA in the latest quarter.
2022 – A Year That Internet and Digital Media Investors Would Like to Forget
While there were signs of life in the fourth quarter of 2022 for the Internet and Digital Media sectors, 2022 was a year most investors in these sectors would like to forget. Every one of these sectors substantially underperformed the S&P 500 last year. The S&P 500 Index finished the year down 19% which was substantially better than Noble’s eSports and iGaming Index (-35%), Digital Media Index (-41%), MarTech Index (-52%), Social Media Index (-63%), and Ad Tech Index (-63%). Rather than focus on the stocks that significantly underperformed their respective Indices (and there are many), we would rather focus on the three stocks that finished 2022 up for the year.
Harte Hanks (HHS) – Shares of Harte Hanks increased by 53% in 2022, which continued its multi-year turnaround from a highly levered and unprofitable business (in 2019), to a double-digit EBITDA margin business with a debt-free balance sheet (in 2022).
Tencent (TME) – Shares of Tencent increased by 21% in 2022. Shares declined earlier in the year as China’s economy slowed as it maintained its Zero Covid-19 lockdown, but surged in the fourth quarter as it appeared that the company would enjoy an increase in demand as China begins easing Covid restrictions.
Perion Networks (PERI) – Perion shares increased by 5% in 2022 as Perion consistently beat expectations and raised its guidance throughout 2022. In the first week of 2023, the company once again pre-announced better than expected results for the fourth quarter, and shares are already up 18% since the start of the new year.
2022 M&A – A Tale of Two Halves
When we look back at last year from an M&A perspective, we can say that 2022 was another year of robust M&A activity. The total number of deals increased by just under 2%, as we tracked 667 deals in 2022 compared to 657 deals in 2021. Deal values were up a robust 71% in 2022 to $241 billion, up from $141 billion in 2021. The fact that deal value was so significantly higher happened despite the fact that there were far fewer deals where the transaction value was disclosed in 2022 compared to 2021. In 2022, there were 184 deals where the purchase price was disclosed, significantly lower than the 264 deals where the purchase price was disclosed in 2021.
2022 – A Year of Mega Deals
The biggest difference between 2022 and 2021 was two “mega” deals that were announced in 2022: Microsoft’s $69 billion announced acquisition of Activision Blizzard (which the Federal Trade Commission is seeking to block) and Elon Musk/Kingdom Holding’s $46 billion acquisition of Twitter. In fact, there were six transactions in 2022 that exceeded $10 billion in deal value, while there were only 2 such deals in 2021. Five of the 6 largest transactions of 2022 took place in the first half of the year. Half the largest M&A deals in 2022 were in the video or mobile gaming sector.
Only Adobe’s $19 billion announced acquisition of Figma took place in the second half of the year, which is not surprising given that the cost of financing M&A transactions using debt increased by approximately 300 basis points as the Fed continued to raise rates to fight inflation. Given the higher cost of financing deals, in 2023 we are not likely to see as many mega deals particularly at the relatively elevated EBITDA multiples shown above.
4Q 2022 M&A: A Chink in the Armor – M&A Activity and Deal Values Slide
Through the first three quarters of the year in 2022, we noted how well M&A had held up despite public equity market declines, Fed rate hikes, elevated inflation, contractionary monetary policy and geopolitical conflict. While the M&A market stayed resilient throughout most of 2022, it is clear that we began to see some “chinks in the armor” in 4Q 2022. We are not surprised by this relative weakness given the economic uncertainty and an inability to accurately forecast revenue and earnings trends for both acquirors and target companies alike.
Deal making in the fourth quarter of 2022 slowed both from a deal volume and deal value perspective. The total number of deals we tracked in the Internet and Digital Media space fell by 17% to 145 deals in 4Q 2022 compared to 174 deals in 4Q 2021. On a sequential basis, the total number of deals fell by 14% to 143 deals compared to 167 deals in 3Q 2022.
The biggest change was in deal value, where the total dollar value of deals fell by 70% to $9.1 billion in 4Q 2022 compared to $30.1 billion in 4Q 2021. On a sequential basis, deal value fell by 69% in 4Q 2022 from $29.1 billion in deal value in 3Q 2022.
The tale of two halves is best represented by the chart below.
From a deal volume perspective, the most active sectors we tracked were Digital Content (40 deals), Marketing Tech (36 deals), Agency & Analytics (32 deals) and Information Services (12 deals). From a deal value perspective, the Information Services sector had the largest dollar value of transactions ($3.3 billion), followed by eCommerce ($1.7 billion), Mar Tech ($1.2 billion), and Mobile ($1.2 billion).
During the fourth quarter there were a dozen announced deals in the video gaming sector, but the sector did not register as a top sector based on deal value. In fact, only 2 of the 12 deals that were announced included the purchase price: Churchill Down’s $250 million acquisition of horse racing game provider Exacta Systems and Playstudios’ $97 million acquisition of mobile game developer Branium Studios. The largest deals in the quarter by dollar value are shown below.
Digital Advertising
Digital Advertising Outlook for 2023
Last October eMarketer revised lower its 2023 U.S. digital advertising forecast by $5.5 billion, from $284.1 billion to $278.6 billion. While this sounds like a substantial drop, in percentage terms they lowered their 2023 forecast by only 2 percentage points, from 14% growth to 12% growth. Most of the global ad agencies expect digital to continue to grow by double digits driven by dollars migrating to such digital ad channels as retail media and connected TV. Both sectors continue to demonstrate impressive growth.
Retail Media – A retail media network is a retailer-owned advertising service that allows marketers to purchase advertising space across all digital assets owned by a retail business, using the retailer’s first-party data to connect with shoppers throughout their buying journey. eMarketer forecasts that retail media ad spending in the U.S. grew by 31% last year to $41 billion and will grow to $61 billion over the next two years, by which time it will equate to 20% of all digital advertising. The leaders in retail media are Amazon, Walmart and Instacart.
Through a retail media network, partners (advertisers) get direct access to a retailer’s customers. The benefit to the partners/advertisers is that they get access to first party data. Retailers own and store this data and allow advertisers to access them through their retail media programs. The first party data is valuable because it is collected at the point of sale allowing brands to get better insights into purchase behavior. Traditional retailers are beginning to follow suit. Traditional retailers with the largest digital audiences (per comScore) are Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, CVS, Walgreens, Costco and Kohls.
On January 10th, Microsoft announced that it intended to create the industry’s most complete omnichannel retail media technology stack supported by its Promote IQ platform, a company Microsoft acquired in 2019. We expect companies that serve the retail media sector from an Ad Tech or Mar Tech standpoint are poised to benefit from secular trends in this sector.
Connected TV (CTV) – Last July, Nielsen announced that for the first time U.S. streaming TV viewership was larger than cable TV viewing. In July 2022, eMarketer forecast that CTV advertising would reach $18.9 billion in 2022. However, in October 2022,
eMarketer raised its forecast for CTV advertising by $2.3 billion to $21.2 billion in 2022. In October, the forecaster also raised its 2023 CTV advertising forecast by $3 billion to $26.9 billion, up from $23.9 billion in the July 2022 forecast. The big increase is due primarily to Netflix and Disney+ announcing they were launching ad supported tiers to their streaming offerings.
The ability to target specific audiences and measure specific outcomes tied to the ads that viewers watched has made CTV a force to be reckoned with, particularly for those advertisers that are never quite sure which of their advertising mediums provide the highest returns. Historically, TV was a mass medium used by large brands that wanted massive reach. CTV has opened the door to a wider variety of advertisers that are looking to reach more targeted, even niche, audiences. According to MNTN, a connected TV performance marketing platform, many CTV advertisers are first-time TV advertisers. With new FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) channels coming online every month, there is no shortage of supply coming to market. This is just one reason why eMarketer predicts CTV advertising to grow by $10+ billion over the next two years and reach nearly $32 billion in advertising revenue in 2024. Ad Tech or Mar Tech companies that serve this market are also poised to benefit from secular viewing trends and the advertising dollars that are migrating to these platforms.
TRADITIONAL MEDIA COMMENTARY
The following is an excerpt from a recent note by Noble’s Media Equity Research Analyst Michael Kupinski
Overview – Will It Be A Happy New Year?
2022 was one of the worst for media stock performance in recent memory, with stocks across traditional and digital media sectors down over 40% or more. Media stocks underperformed the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, which was down a more moderate 19% on a comparable basis for the full year 2022. It is typical for media stocks to underperform in a late-stage economic cycle or in the midst of an economic downturn, but the significant stock declines are stunning. Macro-economic issues including inflation, rising interest rates, and the prospect of a looming economic downturn all contributed to the poor performance.
The question is “will 2023 be better?” We believe so. There has been recent signs of life. The S&P 500 increased by 7% during the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the first time the Index had increased since fourth quarter of 2021. Notably, the Noble Publishing Index outperformed the general market in the latest quarter. However, the full impact of the recent interest rate increase likely have not been reflected in the economy. Many media stocks seem to anticipate an economic downturn, but current fundamentals do not appear to be in a freefall and may be better than expected. If the economy further deteriorates from the recent or future rate hikes, it appears now that it may adversely affect the second half of 2023. Advertising pacings appear to be holding up well so far in the first half 2023. Notably, media stocks may begin to anticipate an improving economic outlook and overlook the weak fundamental environment in the second half.
Conventional thought anticipates that increasing concerns over an economic recession may prompt mortgage rates to trend lower in 2023. Furthermore, it is possible that the Fed may lower interest rates if inflation moderates, although the Fed is not currently anticipating rate decreases in 2023. Nonetheless, this paints a favorable picture for media stocks in 2023. Traditionally, the best time to buy media stocks is in the midst of an economic downturn. In addition, these consumer cyclical stocks tend to be among the first movers in an early-stage economic cycle and tend to perform well in a moderating interest rate environment. As mentioned earlier, the stocks may currently be oversold given the prospect that the current fundamental environment is better than anticipated.
What is the risk to this favorable outlook? We believe that the resurging Chinese economy may be disruptive. Within the last month, China’s economy has been reopened from Covid lockdowns, which may put pressure on global energy prices. Such a prospect may make the Fed’s fight on inflation more stubborn to combat, potentially throwing off our favorable outlook for moderating interest rates. Given the prospect that these stocks tend to outperform the market in an early-stage economic recovery, we believe it is time for investors to accumulate positions in the media sectors.
Traditional Media – Another Quarter of Moderating Stock Performance
Traditional media stocks underperformed the general market in 2022, with the Radio sector the hardest hit. The Noble Radio Index declined 64% versus 19% for the general market, as measured by the S&P 500, in a comparable time period. Television and Publishing stocks were down 23% and 25%, respectively, more in line with the general market returns. But there were notable company stock performance disparities within each sector, highlighted later in this report. Larger market capitalized companies performed better, which skewed the market cap weighted Indices.
Traditional media stocks seemed to have stabilized from the rapid declines in early 2022. The Publishing sector once again outperformed the general market in the quarter. Noble’s Television Index declined 3%, but this decline moderated from the 10% decline in the third quarter. The Radio industry still has not yet stabilized, with the Noble Radio Index down 15% in the latest quarter.
Broadcast Television
Will Netflix suck the air out of the room?
Netflix launched a new pricing plan on November 3rd which offers a basic tier with advertising at a low price point of $6.99. This compares with its previous tiers of $9.99 and $19.99 for advertising-free streaming. While reports indicate that the advertising platform is off to a slow start, we believe that the Netflix move could be disruptive to the broadcast television network business as its lower price basic service gains traction. It is likely that there will be some cannibalization from its higher pricing tier, but we believe that the move will broaden its subscriber base. While Netflix has not considered offering live sports on its streaming platform given the cost of sports rights, we believe that the potential success of its subscription/advertising tier may provide a platform to upend that decision. There is a strong tailwind for viewership trends on streaming platforms, which now exceed that of broadcast television viewing. A decision to enter sports will be a big deal and disruptive to network broadcasting.
Streaming viewership not only eclipsed television viewing in July 2022, but also that of cable viewing, 34.8% versus 34.4%. In addition, based on the latest Nielsen data from November 2022, streaming now accounts for 38.2% of total viewing with Broadcast at 25.7% and cable at 31.8%, as shown in the chart below. While TV viewership increased 7.8% in November, largely due to sports content, streaming usage year over year was up more than 41%.
Scripps Plans To Expand Sports
The declining cable subscriptions and cable viewership, especially on regional sports networks, led E.W. Scripps to launch a new Scripps Sports division. This division plans to seek broadcast rights from teams and leagues and bring that programming to broadcast television. The company plans to obtain rights either in local TV markets where it can partner with local teams or on a national basis, utilizing its distribution on its Ion Network. It is important to note that ION is unique from other networks. Ion’s distribution is nearly 100% of the US television market given that it has local licenses and local towers in every market, it is fully distributed on cable and satellite, and is offered over the air. As such, we believe that Scripps offers a unique proposition to sports teams interested in building its audiences.
Will ATSC 3.0 Stream The Tide?
Furthermore, the broadcast industry appears to be more aggressively ramping its own streaming capabilities with the rollout of its new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0. ATSC 3.0 is built on the same Internet Protocol as other streaming platforms which enables broadcast programming and internet content to be accessible in the car, on mobile devices, and in the home. While there are many opportunities for the new standard, services and offerings are still being developed. ATSC 3.0 offers promising opportunities for broadcasters to compete with streaming services in the future. We expect that the industry will make more announcements about this promising technology at future events, including the upcoming NAB Show, April 16-19 in Las Vegas, NV.
Are We In A Recession?
In our view, the current fundamentals may be better than the stocks project. Advertising seems to be holding up, post political advertising. Most companies in the industry reported strong Q3 revenue growth, influenced by a large influx of political advertising. The largest broadcasters, particularly Nexstar, have the largest EBITDA margins. The two stocks with the highest revenue growth in the quarter, Entravision and E.W. Scripps, saw their shares perform the best in the fourth quarter.
Notably, local advertising appears to be fairing better than national advertising. Based on our estimates, core local advertising is expected to be down in the range of 5% to 8%, with core national down as much as double digits. We believe that some large advertising categories like auto, retail and home improvement will show improving trends. The first quarter 2023 appears to be consistent with the fourth quarter. Broadcast network TV is another story, which we believe is weak. Network has potential heightened competition from streamers such as Netflix and Disney+ which have just launched ad-supported streaming tiers.
Is There Room For Upside?
Most TV stocks are trading in a tight range of each other. The biggest variance in stock valuations is Entravision, which is trading at 5.9x EV to our 2023 EBITDA estimate, well below that of its industry peers which trade on average at 7.7x. One might argue that Entravision, which has migrated to become a leading Digital Media company which contributes roughly 80% of its total company revenues, ought to trade at a premium to its broadcast peers, rather than at a discount. Investors appear to be somewhat confused by the company’s relatively low EBITDA margins, which is a function of how revenues are accounted for in its digital media division. We would also note that its capital structure is among the best in the industry, with a large cash position and modest net debt position.
As mentioned earlier, the Noble Broadcast TV Index declined 3% in the latest quarter, underperforming the general market’s 7% advance. E.W. Scripps, which increased 6% and Entravision, which increased 5% were among the strongest revenue performers in the third quarter. Among the poor performers were shares of Gray Television, down a significant 34% and Sinclair Broadcasting, which was down 24%. With the TV stocks down a significant 23% for the year, have the stocks already assumed that the industry is in an economic downturn? We believe that the stocks may be oversold based on the prospect that advertising is currently holding up in the first quarter.
Broadcast Radio
Digital Is Bolstering Performance
The radio industry index was the worst performing index in the traditional media segment, declining 15% in 4Q22 and 64% for the year. The radio industry is feeling the pressure that recessionary concerns place on the demand for advertising. In addition to increased competition for audiences from digital music providers and shifting advertising dollars from radio to a more targeted advertising medium, digital media.
For the third quarter Urban One and Townsquare Media top its peers with revenue growth of 9% and 8%, respectively. A common theme with companies that grew fastest was diversified revenue streams. Salem Media and Beasley Broadcast Group grew less quickly but are taking steps to further diversify revenue. Salem has diversified into content creation and digital media and Beasley is continuing to pursue a digital agency model. The median Q3 revenue growth rate was 1.5%, and the average revenue growth was -1%. The average growth rate of -1% is skewed due to the poor performance of Medico Holdings (MDIA). In previous quarters Medico benefited from Covid-19 vaccine advertising campaigns and ticket sales for an annual outdoor live event that took place in Q3 of 2021. Without Covid vaccine advertising and Medico’s concert being held in Q2 2022 instead of Q3 resulted in revenue declining 34% on a year over year basis.
After the 2022 calendar year ended, Moody’s downgraded Cumulus Media’s Corporate Family Rating to B3 from B2. Moody’s believes Cumulus Media will face a further decline in advertising demand as the economy weakens. Moody’s could upgrade its rating if leverage decreases to 5x as a result of positive performance and could downgrade its rating if leverage ratio increases to 7x as a result of poor performance. It should be noted that Cumulus has a large cash position of $118 million and could access an additional $100 million through an asset backed loan.
However, there are several companies in the radio industry with improving leverage profiles. We believe that radio companies are diversifying traditional revenue streams with digital revenue. In our view, companies that achieved a greater degree of digital transformation and are better shielded from macroeconomic headwinds. Townsquare Media, Cumulus Media, and Salem Media are among the cheapest in the group. For those companies with substantial digital media businesses that are growing rapidly, like Townsquare Media and Beasley, we believe that advertising pacings in the first quarter are likely to be positive. On the low end pacings are expected to be flat to plus 3% and may even be stronger, up 8% or more in the second quarter (although this is too early to bank). In our view, advertising for these companies do not appear to be falling off of a cliff as the stocks seem to project. Therefore, we believe that the Radio sector appears to be in an oversold position and should have some upside prospects in 2023.
Publishing
Publishing stocks had a pretty good quarter, up 18% as measured by the Noble Publishing Index versus the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index up 7%. But the largest stocks in the index, New York Times and News Corp, were the only stocks that were up in the sector. Given that the Noble Publishing Index is market cap weighted, it was the reason that the Index was up in the quarter. Lee Enterprises was down a very modest 2% in the quarter. The relatively favorable performance of the index was primarily due to its largest constituents, News Corp. and The New York Times, which rebounded from -30% and -39%, respectively in Q2 2022, to -3% and +3%, respectively, in Q3 2022 and then up 17% and 16%, respectively, in Q4 2022.
We believe that Gannett, the nation’s largest newspaper company, continues to create a pall over the publishing group as it continues to struggle to manage cash flows with its heavy debt burden. In August, the company announced a round of layoffs of 400 employees and then announced another 200 in December. We believe that the company is trying to shore up its cash flow amidst a weak fundamental environment. Not surprisingly, GCI shares (-30%) were among the worst performers in the sector in the fourth quarter. To a large extent, the stock performance in the latest quarter reflected the various company results in Q3.
Q3 publishing revenue declined on average 1%, which excludes the strong revenue growth of the Daily Journal. The company benefited from its Journal Technologies consulting fees which bolstered revenues in its fiscal Q4 results. In addition, during the year, the company sold marketable securities for roughly $80.6 million, realizing net gains of $14.2 million. We have backed out the extraordinary results of the Daily Journal from our industry averages. Notably, Gannett had the weakest revenue performance in the fourth quarter, down 10%.
Notable exceptions to the overall weak industry revenue performance was The New York Times, up 7.5% in Q3 revenues, which reflected a moderation in revenue growth from the prior quarter of an increase of 12%. News Corp, declined 1%, which was well below the 7% gain in the prior quarter. Importantly, Lee Enterprises’ fiscal quarter revenue was down a modest 0.2%, a sequential improvement from the modest 0.7% decrease in the prior fiscal quarter. We believe that Lee’s digital strategy continues to gain traction and that the company is very close to an inflection point toward revenue growth. We continue to note that Lee’s digital subscriptions currently lead the industry. The company has exceeded all of its peers in terms of digital subscription growth in the past 11 consecutive quarters. Furthermore, over 50% of its advertising is derived from digital. Currently, roughly 30% of the company’s total revenues are derived from digital, still short of the 55% at The New York Times, but closing the gap.
Not only is Lee performing well on the digital revenue front, but the company has industry leading margins. Lee’s Q3 EBITDA margins were industry leading at 16.7%. We believe that Lee’s margins are notable given that it demonstrates that the company is managing its margins in spite of the investments in its digital media businesses. Its margins place it on par with its digital media focused peers, such as the New York Times.
LEE’s shares trade at an average industry multiple of 5.7x Enterprise Value to our 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. Notably, the company is closing the gap with its digital media revenue contribution to that of New York Times. The New York Times carries a significantly higher stock valuation, currently trading at an estimated 15.8x EV to 2023 adj. EBITDA. We believe that the valuation gap with the New York Times should close.
This newsletter was prepared and provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc. For any questions and/or requests regarding this news letter, please contact Chris Ensley
DISCLAIMER
All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “ we”,“ or “ are solely the responsibility of NOBLE Capital Markets, Inc and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with companies mentioned in this report Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice All information provided herein is based on public and non public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on their own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/ sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Overview:Will It Be A Happy New Year? The full impact of the recent increase in interest rates likely have not been fully reflected in the economy. But, many media stocks seem to anticipate that the industry is in a downturn now. Notably, some stocks have recently performed better and the current fundamentals are not falling off of a cliff.
Digital Media: Coming Off Of Its Sugar High?While Google now plans to phase out cookies in the second half of 2024, it is likely that the plan will affect 2023 as marketers and publishers prepare for the deprecation of cookies.
Television Broadcasting: A Watershed Year For Streaming. Streaming has now eclipsed both broadcast TV and cable TV in terms of viewing based on Nielsen data. Recently, Netflix launched a new pricing plan on November 3 which offers a basic tier, with advertising, at a low price point of $6.99. What does this mean for the TV industry?
Radio Broadcasting:Digital Is Bolstering Performance. It has been a bloodbath for Radio stocks, but the fundamentals appear better than the stock performance might suggest. Radio broadcasters with significant digital businesses are anticipated to report favorable pacings in Q1.
Publishing: You Are Golden If You Have Digital. The trouble with the largest newspaper company, Gannett, has created a pall over the group as it struggles to cut expenses. But, companies with substantial digital operations have performed well. We highlight one of our current favorites Lee Enterprises (LEE).
Overview
Will It Be A Happy New Year?
2022 was one of the worse for media stock performance in recent memory, with stocks across traditional and digital media sectors down over 40% or more. Media stocks underperformed the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, which was down a more moderate 19.4% on a comparable basis for the full year 2022. It is typical for media stocks to underperform in a late-stage economic cycle or in the midst of an economic downturn. But, the significant stock declines are stunning. Macro-economic issues including inflation, rising interest rates, and the prospect of a looming economic downturn, all contributed to the poor performance.
The question is “will 2023 be better?” We believe so. There has been recent signs of life. The S&P 500 increased by 7% during the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the first time the Index had increased since fourth quarter of 2021. Notably, the Noble Publishing and Noble MarTech Indices outperformed the general market in the latest quarter. But, the full impact of the recent interest rate increase likely have not been reflected in the economy. Many media stocks seem to anticipate an economic downturn, but current fundamentals do not appear to be in a freefall and may be better than expected. If the economy further deteriorates from the recent or future rate hikes, it appears now that it may adversely affect the second half of 2023. Advertising pacings appear to be holding up well so far in the first half 2023. Notably, media stocks may begin to anticipate an improving economic outlook and overlook the weak fundamental environment in the second half.
Conventional thought anticipates that increasing concerns over an economic recession may prompt mortgage rates to trend lower in 2023. Furthermore, it is possible that the Fed may lower interest rates if inflation moderates, although the Fed is not currently anticipating rate decreases in 2023. Nonetheless, this paints a favorable picture for media stocks in 2023. Traditionally, the best time to buy media stocks is in the midst of an economic downturn. In addition, these consumer cyclical stocks tend to be among the first movers in an early-stage economic cycle and tend to perform well in a moderating interest rate environment. As mentioned earlier, the stocks may currently be oversold given the prospect that the current fundamental
environment is better anticipated.
What is the risk to this favorable outlook? We believe that the resurging Chinese economy may be disruptive. Within the last month, the China’s economy has been reopened from Covid lockdowns, which may put pressure on global energy prices. Such a prospect may make our fight on inflation more stubborn to combat, potentially throwing off our favorable outlook for moderating interest rates. In our view, we are closer to the light at the end of the tunnel than we were last year. Given the prospect that these stocks tend to outperform the market in an early stage economic recovery, we believe it is time for investors to accumulate positions in the media sectors. In this quarterly, we highlight some of our favorite plays in the Digital, Media & Technology space.
Digital Media & Technology
A Year To Forget
While there were signs of life in the fourth quarter of 2022 for the Internet and Digital Media sectors, 2022 was a year most investors in these sectors would like to forget. As Figure #1 LTM Internet & Digital Technology Performance illustrates, every one of these sectors substantially underperformed the S&P 500 last year. The S&P 500 Index finished the year down 19% which was substantially better than Noble’s Digital Media Index (-41%), MarTech Index (-52%), Social Media Index (-63%), and Ad Tech Index (-63%). Rather than focus on the stocks that significantly underperformed their respective Indices (and there are many), we would rather focus on the three stocks that finished 2022 up for the year.
The shares of one of our favorites, Harte Hanks (HHS)increased by 53% in 2022. The company continued its multi-year turnaround from a highly levered and unprofitable business (in 2019), to a double digit EBITDA margin business with a debt-free balance sheet. Furthermore, we believe that many of the company’s business lines have recession resilient qualities. The other stocks that performed well are Tencent (TME), whichincreased by 21%in 2022. Shares declined earlier in the year as China’s economy slowed as it maintained its Zero Covid-19 lockdowns, but surged in the fourth quarter as it appeared that the company would enjoy an increase in demand as China begins easing Covid restrictions. Finally, the shares of Perion Networks (PERI) increased by 5% in 2022 as Perion consistently beat expectation and raised its guidance throughout 2022. In the first week of 2023, the company once again pre-announced better than expected results for the fourth quarter, and shares are already up 14% since the start of the new year.
As Figure #2 Q4 Internet & Digital Technology Performancehighlights, there has been signs of life in Noble’s MarTech Index which increased 6%, roughly in-line with the market. In Noble’s MarTech Index, 11 of the 22 stocks in the index posted gains, led by Yext (YEXT; +46%), Shopify (SHOP; +29%), LiveRamp (RAMP; +29%) and Adobe (ADBE; +22%). This marks significant improvement from last quarter when only 4 of the sectors’ stocks finished the quarter in positive territory. MarTech stocks have suffered from a market reset to revenue multiples that began when the Fed began raising rates. MarTech share price declines in the first, second and third quarters of 2022 were mostly driven by multiple compression as investors rotated out of high-flying tech sectors where companies had chased growth at all costs (at the expense of profitability). Only 7 of the MarTech companies in the Index posted positive EBITDA in the latest quarter. Laggards during the fourth quarter were Noble’s Digital Media Index (-5%), Social Media Index (-7%) and Ad Tech Index (-20%).
Coming Off Of A Sugar High?
One of the largest issues affecting the Digital Media industry in 2023 will be the phase out of the use of third-party cookies. Cookies were used to track a user visits on internet sites and that data was used to model behavior. The industry has moved away from the use of cookies as governments and consumers have raised concerns over privacy issues and as consumers wanted more control over how their data is used. Governments have taken a more active role in protecting consumer privacy. California, Colorado, Connecticut, Utah, and Virginia have passed privacy laws. It is likely that there will be a federal privacy law at some point.
How will this affect the industry? We believe that there has been plenty of time to “work around” this issue. The implementation of the phase out of cookies has been delayed several times, originally announced by Google in 2020. Google now plans to phased out cookies in the second half of 2024, if it is not delayed again. As marketers and publishers prepare for the deprecation of cookies, digital advertising likely will be begin to affect 2023.
Digital Advertising Outlook for 2023
Last October eMarketer revised lower its 2023 U.S. digital advertising forecast by $5.5 billion, from $284.1 billion to $278.6 billion. While this sounds like a substantial drop in percentage terms, the 2023 guidance was lowered from 14% growth to 12% growth. Most of the global ad agencies expect digital to continue to grow by double digits driven with dollars migrating to such digital ad channels as retail media and connected TV. Both sectors continue to demonstrate impressive growth.
Retail Media – A retail media network is a retailer-owned advertising service that allows marketers to purchase advertising space across all digital assets owned by a retail business, using the retailer’s first-party data to connect with shoppers throughout the buying journey. eMarketer forecasts that retail media ad spending grew by 31% last year to $41 billion and will grow to $61 billion over the next two years, by which time it will equate to 20% of digital advertising. The leaders in retail media are Amazon, Walmart and Instacart.
Through a retail media network, partners (advertisers) get direct access to a retailer’s customers. The benefit to the partners/advertisers is that they get access to first party data. Retailers own and store this data and allow advertisers to access them through their retail media programs. The first party data is valuable because it is collected at the point of sale allowing brands to get better insights into purchase behavior. Traditional retailers are beginning to follow suit. Traditional retailers with the largest digital audiences (per comScore) are Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, CVS, Walgreens, Costco and Kohls.
On January 10th, Microsoft announced that it intended to create the industry’s most complete omnichannel retail media technology stack supported by its Promote IQ platform, a company Microsoft acquired in 2019. We expect companies that serve the retail media sector from an Ad Tech or Mar Tech standpoint are poised to benefit from secular trends in this sector.
Connected TV (CTV) – Last July, Nielsen announced that for the first time U.S. streaming TV viewership was larger than cable TV viewing. In July 2022, eMarketer forecast that CTV advertising would reach $18.9 billion in 2022. However, in October 2022, eMarketer raised its forecast for CTV advertising by $2.3 billion to $21.2 billion in 2022. In October, the forecaster also raised its 2023 CTV advertising forecast by $3 billion to $26.9 billion, up from $23.9 billion in the July 2022 forecast. The big increase is due primarily to Netflix and Disney+ announcing they were launching ad supported tiers to their streaming offerings. Ad Tech or Mar Tech companies that serve this market are also poised to benefit from secular viewing trends and the advertising dollars that are migrating to these platforms, discussed later in this report.
The ability to target specific audiences and measure specific outcomes tied to the ads that viewers watched, has made CTV a force to be reckoned with, particularly for those advertisers that are never quite sure which advertising mediums provide the highest returns. Historically, TV was a mass medium used by large brands that wanted massive reach. CTV has opened the door to a wider variety of advertisers that are looking to reach more targeted, even niche, audiences. According to MNTN, a connected TV performance marketing platform, many CTV advertisers are first-time TV advertisers. With new FAST (Free Ad-Supported Streaming TV) channels coming online every month, there is no shortage of supply coming to market. This is just one reason why eMarketer predicts CTV advertising to grow by $10+ billion over the next two years and reach nearly $32 billion in advertising revenue in 2024.
As we look toward 2023, our current favorites include Harte Hanks (HHS) and Direct Digital (DRCT). In terms of Harte Hanks, we believe that the company has recession resilient qualities and that the company’s balance sheet is in a sound position. Furthermore, given the recent rising interest rate environment, the company’s unfunded pension liabilities have dramatically improved. The company may have the opportunity to further mitigate its pension liabilities in 2023. Figure #3 Marketing Tech Comparables highlights, the shares of HHS are trading well below its peers. We believe that there is meaningful upside potential in the shares as it closes the valuation gap with its peers.
While the deprecation of cookies has created a pall over the sector, we believe that Direct Digital has worked with its Publishers to mitigate this issue. In addition, the company is a relatively small player in a very large marketplace. As such, we believe that the company has the ability to attractively grow in 2023. In our view, the shares appear to be oversold given the continuation of favorable advertising trends. Figure #4 Advertising Tech Comparables illustrates that the DRCT shares trade below the average valuation in its Advertising Marketing peer set. In our view, the valuation should be higher than the averages given that the company has leading industry revenue growth. Closing this valuation gap offers compelling stock appreciation potential.
Figure #1 LTM Internet & Digital Technology Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #2 Q4 Internet & Digital Technology Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Marketing Technology
Figure #3 Marketing Tech Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Noble estimates
Figure #4 Advertising Tech Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Noble estimates
Traditional Media
Another Quarter Of Moderating Stock Performance
Traditional media stocks underperformed the general market in 2022, with the Radio sector the hardest hit. As Figure #5 LTM Traditional Media Performance Chart illustrates, the Noble Radio Index declined 63.8% versus 19.4% for the general market, as measured by the S&P 500, in a comparable time period. Television and Publishing stocks were down 23.2% and 25.4%, respectively, more in line with the general market returns. But, there were notable company stock performance disparities within each sector, highlighted later in this report. Larger market capitalized companies performed better, which skewed the market cap weighted Indices.
The traditional media stocks seemed to have stabilized from the rapid declines earlier in the year. Possible signs of life in the traditional media sector as well? As Figure #6 Q4 Traditional Media Performance highlights, the Publishing sector once again outperformed the general market in the quarter. The Noble Television Index declined 3.2%, but this decline moderated from the 10.1% decline in the third quarter. The Radio industry still has not yet stabilized, with the Noble Radio Index down 15.4% in the latest quarter.
Figure #5 LTM Traditional Media Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #6 Q4 Traditional Media Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Television Broadcast
Will Netflix suck the air out of the room?
Netflix launched a new pricing plan on November 3 which offers a basic tier, with advertising, at a low price point of $6.99. This compares with its previous tiers of $9.99 and $19.99 for advertising free streaming. While reports indicate that the advertising platform is off to a slow start, we believe that the Netflix move could be disruptive to the Broadcast Television Network business as its lower price basic service gains traction. It is likely that there will be some cannibalization from its higher pricing tier, but we believe that the move will broaden its subscriber base. While Netflix has not considered offering live sports on its streaming platform given the cost of sports rights, we believe that the potential success of its subscription/advertising tier may provide a platform to upend that decision. There is a strong tailwind for viewership trends on streaming platforms, which now exceed that of broadcast television viewing. A decision to enter sports will be a big deal and disruptive to Network broadcasting.
Streaming viewership not only eclipsed television viewing in July 2022, but also that of cable viewing, 34.8% versus 34.4%. In addition, based on the latest Nielsen data from November 2022, streaming now accounts for 38.2% of total viewing with Broadcast at 25.7% and cable at 31.8%. Figure #7 Viewership illustrates the November viewership data. While TV viewership increased 7.8% in November, largely due to sports content, streaming usage year over year was up more than 41%.
Figure #7 Viewership
Source: Nielsen Media Insights
Scripps Plans To Expand Sports
The declining cable subscriptions and cable viewership, especially on regional sports networks, led E.W. Scripps to launch a new Scripps Sports division. This division plans to seek broadcast rights from teams and leagues and bring that programming to broadcast television. The company plans to obtain rights either in local TV markets where it can partner with the the teams or on a national basis, utilizing its distribution on its Ion Network. It is important to note that ION is unique from other networks. Ion’s distribution is nearly 100% of the US television market given that it has local licenses and local towers in every market, it is fully distributed on cable and satellite, and is offered over the air. As such, we believe that Scripps offers a unique proposition to sports teams interested in building its audiences.
Will ATSC 3.0 Stream The Tide?
Furthermore, the broadcast industry appears to be more aggressively ramping its own streaming capabilities with the rollout of its new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0. ATSC 3.0 is built on the same Internet Protocol as other streaming platforms, and, as such, broadcast programming and internet content can be accessible in the car, on mobile devices, as well as in the home. Importantly, the new standard can handle signal shifting, like if you were moving in a car, and the signal is more robust so you may be able to pick up more stations in a local market. While there are many opportunities for the new standard, services and offerings are still being developed. But, it offers promising opportunities for broadcasters to compete with streaming services in the future. We expect that the industry will make more announcements about this promising technology at future events, including the upcoming NAB Show, April 16-19 in Las Vegas, NV.
Are We In A Recession?
In our view, the current fundamentals may be better than the stocks project. Advertising seems to be holding up, post political advertising. As Figure #8 TV Q3 YoY Revenue Growth highlights, most companies in the industry reported strong Q3 revenue growth, influenced by a large influx of Political advertising. Figure #9 TV Q3 EBITDA Margins illustrates that the largest broadcasters, particularly Nexstar, has the largest EBITDA margins. Notably, the two stocks with the highest revenue growth in the quarter, Entravision and E.W. Scripps, performed the best in the fourth quarter, discussed later.
Notably, Local advertising appears to be fairing better than National advertising. Based on our estimates, core local advertising is expected to be down in the range of 5% to 8%, with core National down as much as the double digits. We believe that some large advertising categories like Auto, Retail and Home Improvement will show improving trends. The first quarter 2023 appears to be consistent with the fourth quarter. Smaller market TV likely will perform at the lower end of the range, while larger market TV will be at the higher end (greater core revenue decline). Broadcast Network is another story, which we believe is weak. Network has potential heightened competition. Figure #8 TV Q3 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #9 TV Q3 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
As mentioned earlier, the Noble Television Broadcast Index declined 3.2% in the latest quarter, underperforming the general market’s 7.2% advance. Importantly, the 3.2% decline in valuations was a moderation from the 10.1% decline in the third quarter. There were variances in the performance and some notable performers including two of our favorites: E.W. Scripps, which increased 5.8% and Entravision, which increase 5.3%. Both of these companies were among the strongest revenue performers in the third quarter. Among the poor performers was Gray Television, down a significant 33.7% and Sinclair Broadcasting, down 24.0%. With the TV stocks down a significant 23.2% for the year, have the stocks already assumed that the industry is in an economic downturn? We believe that the stock may be oversold based on the prospect that advertising is currently holding up in the first quarter.
Is There Room For Upside?
As Figure # 10 TV Industry Comparables highlight, most TV stocks are trading in a tight range of each other. The biggest variance in stock valuations is our current favorite Entravision, trading at 5.9 times EV to our 2023 EBITDA estimate, well below that of its industry peers which trade on average at 7.7 times. We believe that Entravision, which has migrated to become a leading Digital Media company which contributes roughly 80% of its total company revenues, should trade at a premium to its broadcast peers, rather than at a discount. Investors appear to be somewhat confused by the company’s relatively low EBITDA margins, which is a function of how revenues are accounted for in its Digital Media Division. We would also note that its financial profile is among the best in the industry, with a large cash position and modest net debt position of $86 million. As such, EVC leads our favorites in this sector.
Figure #10 TV Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Radio Broadcast
Digital Is Bolstering Performance
The radio industry index was the worst performing index in the traditional media segment, declining 15.4% in the quarter and 63.8% for the year. The radio industry is feeling the pressure that recessionary concerns place on the demand for advertising. In addition to increased competition for audiences from digital music providers and shifting advertising dollars from radio to a more targeted advertising medium, digital media.
Figure #11 Radio Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Growth chart illustrates the year over year change in revenue for the third quarter. Urban One and Townsquare Media top their peers with revenue growth of 8.9% and 8.4%, respectively. A common theme with companies at the top of the list are diversified revenue streams. Salem Media and Beasley Broadcast Group are in the middle of the pack and are both taking steps to further diversify revenue. Salem has diversified into content creation and digital media and Beasley is continuing to pursue digital agency model. The median Q3 revenue growth rate was 1.5%, and the average revenue growth was -1%. The Average growth rate of -1% is skewed due to the poor performance of Medico holdings. In previous quarters Medico benefited from Covid-19 vaccine advertising campaigns and ticket sales for an annual outdoor live event that took place in Q3 of 2021. Without Covid vaccine advertising and Medico’s concert being held in Q2 2022 instead of Q3 resulted in revenue declining 33.6% on a year over year basis.
Industry adj. EBITDA margins were healthy, as Figure #12 Radio Industry Q3 EBITDA margins illustrates, Urban one, Townsquare Media and Iheart Media top the list with adj. EBITDA margins of 30.6%, 25.6% and 25.5%, respectively.
After the 2022 calendar year ended, Moody’s downgraded Cumulus Media’s Corporate Family Rating to B3 from B2. Moody’s believes Cumulus Media will face a further decline in advertising demand as the economy weakens. Moody’s could upgrade its rating if leverage decreases to 5x as a result of positive performance and could downgrade its rating if leverage ratio increases to 7x as a result of poor performance. It should be noted that Cumulus has a large cash position of $118 million and could access an additional $100 million through an asset backed loan.
However, there are several companies in the Radio industry with improving leverage profiles. Moreover, we believe that radio companies are diversifying traditional revenue streams with digital revenue. In our view, companies that achieved a greater degree of digital transformation and are better shielded from macroeconomic headwinds. Figure #13 Radio Industry Comparables highlights, Townsquare Media, Cumulus Media, and Salem Media are among the cheapest in the group. For those companies with substantial digital media businesses that are growing rapidly, like Townsquare Media and Beasley, we believe that advertising pacings in the first quarter are likely to be positive. On the low end pacings are expected to be flat to plus 3% and may even be stronger, up 8% or more in the second quarter (although this is too early to bank). In our view, advertising for these companies do not appear to be falling off of a cliff as the stocks seem to project. As such, we believe that the Radio sector appears to be in an oversold position and should have some upside prospects in 2023. Our favorites include TSQ, SALM, BBGI, and CMLS.
Figure #11 Radio Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #12 Radio Industry Q3 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #13 Radio Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Publishing
Illustrated above in Figure #6 Q4 Traditional Media Performance, the Publishing stocks had a pretty good quarter, up 17.9% as measured by the Noble Publishing Index versus the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index up 7.1%. But the largest stocks in the index, New York Times and News Corp, were the only stocks that were up in the sector. Given that the Noble Publishing Index is market cap weighted, it was the reason that the Index was up in the quarter. Importantly, one of our favorites, Lee Enterprises was down a very modest 2.3% in the quarter. Again, the relatively favorable performance of the index was primarily due to its largest constituents, News Corp. and The New York Times, which rebounded from -29.7% and -39.1%, respectively in Q2, to -3% and +3%, respectively, in Q3 and then up 16.8% and 16.3%, respectively, in Q4.
We believe that Gannett, the nation’s largest newspaper company, continues to create a pall over the publishing group as it continues to struggle to manage cash flows with its heavy debt burden. In August, the company announced a round of lay offs of 400 employees and then announced another 200 in December. We believe that the company is trying to shore up its cash flow amidst a weak fundamental environment. Not surprisingly, the GCI shares were among the worse performers in the sector in the latest quarter, down 30%. To a large extent, the stock performance in the latest quarter reflected the various company results in Q3.
As Figure #14 Publishing Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Performance chart illustrates, Q3 publishing revenue declined on average 1.1%, which excludes the strong revenue growth of the Daily Journal. The company benefited from its Journal Technologies consulting fees which bolstered revenues in its fiscal Q4 results. In addition, during the year, the company sold marketable securities for roughly $80.6 million, realizing net gains of $14.2 million. As such, we have backed out the extraordinary results of the Daily Journal from our industry averages. Notably, Gannett had the weakest revenue performance in the latest quarter, down 10%.
The notable exceptions to the overall weak industry revenue performance was The New York Times, up 7.5% in Q3 revenues, which reflected a moderation in revenue growth from the prior quarter of an increase of 11.5%. News Corp, declined 1%, which was well below the 7.3% gain in the prior quarter. Importantly, Lee Enterprises fiscal quarter revenue was down a modest 0.2%, a sequential improvement from the modest 0.7% decrease in the prior fiscal quarter. We believe that Lee’s digital strategy continues to gain traction and that the company is very close to an inflection point toward revenue growth. We continue to note that Lee’s digital subscriptions currently lead the industry. The company has exceeded all of its peers in terms of digital subscription growth in the past 11 consecutive quarters. Furthermore, over 50% of its advertising is derived from digital. Currently, roughly 30% of the company total revenues are derived from Digital, still short of the 55% at The New York Times, but closing the gap.
Not only is Lee performing well on the Digital revenue front, it has industry leading margins. As Figure #15 Publishing Industry Q3 EBITDA Margins illustrates, Lee’s Q3 EBITDA margins were industry leading at 16.7%, again, excluding the extraordinary results at the Daily Journal which benefited from marketable securities trading. We believe that Lee’s margins are notable given that it demonstrates that the company is managing its margins in spite of the investments in its Digital Media businesses. Its margins place it on pare with its Digital Media focused peers, such as the New York Times.
As Figure #16 Publishing Industry Comparables chart illustrates, the LEE shares trade at an average industry multiple of 5.7 times Enterprise Value to our 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. Notably, the company is closing the gap with its Digital Media revenue contribution to that of New York Times. The New York Times carries a significantly higher stock valuation, currently trading at an estimated 15.8 times EV to 2023 adj. EBITDA. We believe that the valuation gap with the New York Times should close. As such, we view the LEE shares as among our favorites in the industry.
Figure #14 Publishing Industry Q3 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #15 Publishing Industry Q3 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #16 Publishing Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates.
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NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / January 4, 2023 / Engine Gaming and Media, Inc. (“Engine” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ:GAME)(TSXV:GAME),a data-driven, gaming, media and influencer marketing platform company, today announced that it will issue a press release promptly after the market close on Tuesday, January 17, 2023, summarizing its financial results for the fiscal first quarter of 2023 ended November 30, 2022. The Company will also host a conference call the same day at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss its financial results in further detail. The call will conclude with Q&A from participants.
Please dial in at least 10 minutes before the start of the call to ensure timely participation.
A playback of the call will be available through January 24, 2023, on Engine Gaming and Media, Inc.’s Investor Relations website at ir.enginemediainc.com or via telephone replay by dialing 1-844-512-2921 or 1-412-317-6671. The Access Code is 13735206.
About Engine Gaming and Media, Inc.
Engine Gaming and Media, Inc. (NASDAQ:GAME)(TSXV:GAME) provides unparalleled live streaming data and social analytics, influencer relationship management and monetization, and programmatic advertising to support the world’s largest video gaming companies, brand marketers, ecommerce companies, media publishers and agencies to drive new streams of revenue. The company’s subsidiaries include Stream Hatchet, the global leader in gaming video distribution analytics; Sideqik, a social influencer marketing discovery, analytics, and activation platform; and Frankly Media, a digital publishing platform used to create, distribute, and monetize content across all digital channels. Engine Gaming generates revenue through a combination of software-as-a-service subscription fees, managed services, and programmatic advertising. For more information, please visit www.enginegaming.com.
Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Information
This news release contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Engine to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “estimates”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. In respect of the forward-looking information contained herein, Engine has provided such statements and information in reliance on certain assumptions that management believed to be reasonable at the time. Forward-looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements stated herein to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking information. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information contained in this news release.
The forward-looking statements contained in this news release are made as of the date of this release and, accordingly, are subject to change after such date. Engine does not assume any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by us or on our behalf, except as required by applicable law.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Company Contact:
Lou Schwartz 647-725-7765
Investor Relations Contact:
Shannon Devine MZ North America Main: 203-741-8811 GAME@mzgroup.us
HOUSTON, Jan. 04, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (“Great Lakes” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: GLDD), the largest provider of dredging services in the United States, announced that it will be presenting at the 23rd Annual CJS Securities “New Ideas for the New Year” Investor Conference, to be held virtually on Wednesday, January 11, 2023 at 1:30 pm E.T.
President and Chief Executive Officer, Lasse Petterson, and Chief Financial Officer, Scott Kornblau will provide an overview of the Company and participate in a Q&A discussion. The webcast link for the presentation is https://wsw.com/webcast/cjs5/gldd/1577175.
A replay webcast of the presentation will be available on the Great Lakes website, www.gldd.com, under Events on the Investor Relations page.
The Company Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (“Great Lakes” or the “Company”) is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 132-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.
For further information contact: Tina Baginskis Director, Investor Relations 630-574-3024
