GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Q3 Preview: Upside Surprise Potential


Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 preview. We estimate the company’s upcoming Q3 revenue and adj. EBITDA to be $103.0 million and $4.9 million, respectively. There is the prospect for an upside surprise, however, particularly for adj. EBITDA. We believe that the company’s ongoing strategy for improving operational efficiency could be reflected in this quarter. The company is expected to report Q3 results in the second week in November. 

Enhancing efficiency. During the company’s Q2 earnings call, management highlighted its focus on efficiency in its user acquisition strategy. We believe the company’s efficient use of marketing spend, particularly in areas that provide sufficient returns, could indicate upside surprise potential for adj. EBITDA, not only from our estimate, but also the Street consensus which is $8.5 million. 


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