Monday, October 2, 2023
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Mining companies outperform the broader market. During the third quarter, mining companies (as measured by the XME) rose 3.3% compared to a decline of 3.6% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were down 10.6% and 9.6%, respectively. Gold, silver, and copper futures prices fell 3.3%, 1.6%, and 0.6%, respectively, while zinc and lead were up 8.7% and 6.2%. Gold was likely negatively impacted by the Federal Reserve’s higher rates for longer messaging coupled with a 3.2% increase in the U.S. Dollar Index. Year-to-date through September 30th, the XME, GDX, and GDXJ have all lagged the S&P 500 index return of 11.7%.
Looking ahead to 2024. While we expected weakness in the second half of 2023, prices have remained relatively resilient, and we are increasingly bullish going into 2024. Factors supporting our view include: 1) the Federal Reserve appears to be nearing the end of its tightening cycle, 2) a new norm of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, 3) unsustainable growth in U.S. deficit spending and national debt, and 4) increasing investments in gold by central banks. Given the level of uncertainty reinforced by a dysfunctional U.S. political environment, we think portfolio allocations to precious metals could increase. While much will depend on monetary policy which appears to be working, we think the higher for longer mantra makes for nice messaging but actual policy will be data driven.
Outlook for industrial metals. While a potential economic downturn in the U.S. coupled with sluggish growth abroad could weigh on industrial metals demand and prices, longer-term secular trends such as electrification remain supportive of supply and demand fundamentals for metals such as copper. In the intermediate term, government support for infrastructure spending and strong demand from certain sectors such as aerospace, defense, and electronics are supportive of industrial metals.
Putting it all together. We think precious metals equities may be poised for outperformance in 2024. While well-diversified portfolios should have exposure to precious metals, mining equities may offer a stronger current alternative to bullion. In our opinion, junior companies remain attractive based on valuation and we expect industry consolidation to increase as senior producers seek to replenish reserves and resources. For industrial metals stocks, investors may need to be more selective by focusing on suppliers to end use markets with favorable demand growth fundamentals.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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