Release – Saga Communications, Inc. Reports 3rd Quarter 2024 Results

Research News and Market Data on SGA

Nov 7, 2024

PDF Version

GROSSE POINTE FARMS, Mich., Nov. 07, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Saga Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq – SGA) (the “Company” or “Saga”) today reported that net revenue decreased 3.5% to $28.1 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 compared to $29.1 million for the same period last year. Station operating expense increased 3.1% for the quarter to $23.5 million compared to the same period last year. For the quarter, operating income was $1.6 million compared to $3.5 million for the same quarter last year and station operating income (a non-GAAP financial measure) decreased 21.2% to $6.0 million. Capital expenditures were $625 thousand for the quarter compared to $760 thousand for the same period last year. We had net income of $1.3 million for the quarter compared to net income of $2.7 million for the third quarter last year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.20 in the third quarter of 2024.

On a same station basis for the three months ended September 30, 2024 net revenue decreased 5.8% to $27.5 million and station operating expense decreased 0.3% to $22.7 million while operating income decreased 49.7% to $1.8 million.

Net revenue decreased 2.5% to $81.5 million for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024 compared to $83.6 million for the same period last year. Station operating expense increased 4.7% for the nine-month period to $70.0 million compared to the same period last year. For the nine-month period, operating income was $1.4 million compared to $8.7 million and station operating income (a non-GAAP financial measure) decreased 25.2% to $15.2 million. Capital expenditures for the nine-months were $3.2 million compared to $3.4 million for the same period last year. Net income was $2.2 million for the nine-month period compared to $7.0 million for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.35 in the nine-months of 2024.

On a same station basis for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 net revenue decreased 3.6% to $80.6 million from last year and station operating expense increased 3.2% to $69.0 million while operating income decreased 83.4% to $1.4 million.

The Company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share on October 18, 2024. The aggregate amount of the quarterly dividend was approximately $1.6 million. To date Saga has paid over $133 million in dividends to shareholders since the first special dividend was paid in 2012. The Company intends to pay regular quarterly cash dividends in the future. Consistent with its strategic objective of maintaining a strong balance sheet and with returning value to our shareholders, the Board of Directors will also continue to consider declaring special cash dividends, variable dividends and stock buybacks in the future.

The Company’s balance sheet reflects $28.7 million in cash and short-term investments as of September 30, 2024 and $28.0 million as of November 4, 2024. The Company currently has $5.0 million drawn against its $50.0 million revolving credit facility. The Company expects to spend approximately $4.0 – $4.5 million for capital expenditures during 2024.

Saga’s 2024 Third Quarter conference call will be held on Thursday, November 7, 2024 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. The dial-in number for the call is (973) 528-0008. Enter conference code 674708. A recording and transcript of the call will be posted to the Company’s website as soon as it is available after the call.

The Company requests that all parties that have a question that they would like to submit to the Company please email the inquiry by 10:00 a.m. Eastern time on November 7, 2024 to SagaIR@sagacom.com. The Company will discuss, during the limited period of the conference call, those inquiries it deems of general relevance and interest. Only inquiries made in compliance with the foregoing directions will be discussed during the call.

Saga utilizes certain financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) to assess its financial performance. The attached Selected Supplemental Financial Data tables disclose “actual”, “same station”, and “proforma” financial information as well as the Company’s reconciliation of non-GAAP measures: GAAP operating income to station operating income, GAAP net income to trailing twelve-month consolidated EBITDA and actual operating results to same station operating results as well as other financial data. The actual financial information reflects our historical financial results and include the results of operations for stations that we did not own for the entire comparable period. The same station financial information reflects only the results of operations for stations that we owned for the entire comparable period. The proforma financial information assume all acquisitions in 2024 occurred as of January 1, 2023. Such non-GAAP measures include same station financial information, pro forma financial information, station operating income, trailing 12-month consolidated EBITDA, and leverage ratio. These non-GAAP measures are generally recognized by the broadcasting industry as measures of performance and are used by Saga to assess its financial performance including, but not limited to, evaluating individual station and market-level performance, evaluating overall operations, as a primary measure for incentive-based compensation of executives and other members of management and as a measure of financial position. Saga’s management believes these non-GAAP measures are used by analysts who report on the industry and by investors to provide meaningful comparisons between broadcasting groups, as well as an indicator of their market value. These measures are not measures of liquidity or of performance in accordance with GAAP and should be viewed as a supplement to and not as a substitute for the results of operations presented on a GAAP basis including net operating revenue, operating income, and net income. Reconciliations for all the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure are attached in the Selected Supplemental Financial Data tables.

This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based upon current expectations and involve certain risks and uncertainties. Words such as “will,” “may,” “believes,” “intends,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “guidance,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The material risks facing our business are described in the reports Saga periodically files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including, in particular, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K. Readers should note that forward-looking statements may be impacted by several factors, including global, national, and local economic changes and changes in the radio broadcast industry in general as well as Saga’s actual performance. Actual results may vary materially from those described herein and Saga undertakes no obligation to update any information contained herein that constitutes a forward-looking statement.

Saga is a media company whose business is devoted to acquiring, developing and operating broadcast properties with a growing focus on opportunities complimentary to our core radio business including digital, e-commerce and non-traditional revenue initiatives. Saga owns or operates broadcast properties in 28 markets, including 82 FM, 32 AM radio stations and 79 metro signals. For additional information, contact us at (313) 886-7070 or visit our website at www.sagacom.com.

Contact:
Samuel D. Bush
(313) 886-7070

View Full Release Here.

Saga Communications (SGA) – Political A Big Swing Factor


Friday, August 09, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers on expectations. The company reported Q2 revenue of $28.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $28.8 million and $4.6 million, respectively as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Notably, the revenue estimate was achieved in spite of weaker than expected Political advertising. 

Pacings appear weak. Management indicated that Q3 revenues are pacing down mid single digits, which, we believe, may be conservative given that there is limited visibility on Political advertising. The weak revenue outlook reflects, however, lackluster core advertising which appears to be impacted by the current macroeconomic headwinds.  


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Digital, Media & Technology Industry Report: Expecting A Bounce In TV Stocks As The Dust Settles

Thursday, February 8, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

A proposed new sports streaming service. The Walt Disney Company, Fox Corporation, and Warner Bros. Discovery announced that it plans to launch a new live sports streaming service in the fall 2024. The new service is expected to be offered directly to consumers through an app on a subscription basis. 

A lot to work out. There are a number of variables that need to be worked out, including the pricing of the new services. Recent media reports have the streaming service priced at a hefty $40 per month. The app will not include all sports programming and is expected to target sports fans that do not subscribe to a pay-TV package. As such, there will be a limited audience and could even help to expand the reach of local TV stations. 

An over-reaction? Television stocks, including our current covered companies, E.W. Scripps (SSP) and Gray Television (GTN) dropped 24% and 15%, respectively. Investors seem to expect that the new service will be a threat to the companies’ retransmission revenue. And, in the case of Scripps, investors may believe that the new potential service will be in competition of Scripps’ Sports strategy.

Impact on Retrans revenue? The service could accelerate cable subscriber declines, but cord cutters likely will subscribe to a virtual service or connected TV for local channels. Such a move would be neutral to TV broadcasters given that broadcasters are paid Retrans on these platforms as well.  In terms of Scripps Sports, we believe that it likely will not affect its local sports strategy and that it could offer opportunities for partnerships on it national sports strategy. 

 Compelling opportunity. We believe that the sell-off in TV stocks is over done. There appears to be a favorable risk/reward relationship for an industry cycling into an improving fundamental story in 2024, with the influx of high margin Political advertising, a swing toward favorable Retrans revenue growth, lowered debt leverage, and compelling stock valuations. Our favorites are E.W. Scripps and Gray Television. Please see our recent reports on SSP and GTN for stock valuations, ratings, price targets and important disclosure information. 

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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Digital, Media & Technology Industry Report: Outlook For 2024

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Optimism For A Good 2024. In this report, we provide our advertising outlook for 2024 and provide our best picks to play the expected advertising rebound. Our take on the year is based on an improving economic outlook, particularly in the second half of the year, and heavy influx of Political advertising. Our favorable advertising outlook is based on a resilient labor market and lower interest rates to avoid a recession in 2024.

Have we seen the trough for this cycleWith our economic scenario in mind, we anticipate an improving economic environment in the second half of 2024. Notably, we believe that advertising trends are improving into the first quarter 2024, with the rate of decline moderating for both Radio and Television. 

National advertising expected to strengthen. The weakness in National was the biggest issue for broadcasters in 2023. We believe that National advertising trends should improve in 2024 both from the perspective of a sluggish consumer in the first half and from an improving economic outlook in the second half.

How big will Political be? We anticipate a strong political advertising environment in 2024, an increase of 13% to roughly $10 billion from 2020 levels. Importantly, about half of the high margin political advertising dollars are expected to be spent with television broadcasters. 

Highlights of favorite picks for 2024. Media stocks are typically early cycle stocks, which tend to outperform in the midst of the economic downturn or trough as investors begin to anticipate economic improvement. We believe media stocks are timely and offer a compelling return potential given depressed valuations. In addition, some companies pay a dividend, offering attractive total return potential.

Investment Appraisal

Optimism For A Good 2024

The fortunes of advertising based companies are driven by the economy and the health of the consumer. As such, we start this report with our take on the economy in 2024. On December 4th, at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, Noblecon19 hosted an economic panel to discuss the business environment outlook for 2024. The economic panel consisted of a diverse group of industry professionals with a wide range of expertise and experience. In our economic outlook for 2024, we take into consideration the perspective of Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers.

Mr. Torres highlighted 2023 as a resilient year for consumer spending, which was driven by excess pandemic savings accumulated in 2020 and 2021. Mr. Torres anticipates a slowdown in consumer spending and a strong labor market in 2024. Notably, he believes a resilient labor market will keep consumers spending and will keep the country from falling into a recession. Additionally, Mr. Torres highlighted that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) annualized inflation over the last six months is running near 2.5%, which is very close to the FED’s goal of 2.0%. With moderating inflation pressures, Mr. Torres highlighted that the FED is likely to cut rates in March of 2024, which would be beneficial for small and mid-cap companies. While Mr. Torres largely has a positive outlook for 2024 and beyond, a point of concern was the federal government’s growing interest expense on debt, he noted that the government will eventually have to reduce spending or accept 3% – 3.5% inflation over the long-term.

The general U.S. economy is expected to soften in 2024, particularly in the first half, with a prospect that the economy could slip into recession. Our economic scenario for 2024 anticipates the economy will soften in the first half of the year and rebound in the second half of the year due to the prospect of a lower interest rate environment and resilient labor market.

The video of the Economic Perspectives panel may be viewed here

Small Cap Cycle?

Small cap investors have gone through a rough period. For the past several years, investors have anticipated an economic downturn. With these concerns, investors turned toward “safe haven” large cap stocks, which by and large can weather economic downturns and have significant trading volume should investors need to sell their positions. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, large cap and small cap, one of the largest since 1999. Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2.5 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 15 times. We believe the disparity is due to higher risk in the small cap stocks, given that some companies may not be cash flow positive, have capital needs, or have limited share float. However, investors seem to have overlooked small cap stocks with favorable fundamentals. While small cap stocks are more speculative than large caps, many are growing revenues and cash flow, have capable balance sheets, and/or are cash flow positive. In our view, the valuation gap should resolve itself over time for attractive emerging growth stocks. Some market strategists suggest that small cap stocks trade at the most undervalued in the market.

Dan Thelen, Managing Director of small cap equity at Ancora Advisors, highlighted the valuation gap between small cap and large cap stocks during the economic panel at Noblecon19 on December 5, 2023. Mr. Thelen noted that investors are not recognizing the risk mitigation efforts small cap companies have undertaken in the high interest rate environment. He believes that changes small cap companies have implemented are not reflected in stock prices and should be a tailwind moving forward. Again, his comments can be viewed on the video of the Economic Perspectives panel here

2024 Advertising Outlook

In our advertising outlook for 2024, we take into consideration the perspective of Lisa Knutson, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of E.W Scripps. Ms. Knutson is on the frontline of the economy as one of the largest TV broadcasters in the country. As a speaker on the Noblecon19 economic panel, she depicted the local and national advertising markets as a tale of two cities. Notably, Ms. Knutson highlighted resilience in local advertising and sequential improvement over the past few quarters in the auto advertising category. Additionally, she highlighted green shoots in local advertising, particularly in the services, home improvement and retail advertising categories. Importantly, political ad spend for the 2024 election cycle is expected to be approximately $10 billion, which is roughly a 13% increase from 2020, as illustrated in Figure #1 Political Ad Spend. About half of the high margin political advertising dollars are expected to be spent with television broadcasters. Our advertising forecast for television, radio and digital are highlighted later in this report. 

Figure #1 Political Ad spend

Source: Statista

Stock Recommendations

With our economic scenario in mind, we have identified certain media stocks that should perform well and/or lead the industry as economic prospects improve. Media stocks are typically early cycle stocks. This means that the stocks tend to outperform in the midst of the economic downturn or trough as investors begin to anticipate economic improvement. In addition, small cap stocks in general have been out of favor, with many stocks trading at historic low stock valuations (over the past several economic cycles) and also relative to the valuations of leadership stocks, such as the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia and Tesla). This report highlights some of our favorite picks for 2024. Our favorites include companies that are leveraged to benefit from the influx of Political advertising and improving economy, generate positive free cash flow, and have capable balance sheets to invest it growth initiatives. Finally, we recommend stocks that have compelling valuations and/or pay a dividend to provide an attractive total return investment opportunity. 

Digital Media & Technology

Decelerating Revenue Growth, But Faster Than Other Advertising Categories

Digital Advertising has been growing rapidly over the past several years, bolstered by cord-cutting trends and generally, by an increasingly digital world. Digital Advertising includes various categories of advertising, such as audio, video, influencer, search, banner, and others. According to Statista, U.S. Digital Advertising spending is expected to grow at 15% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), from 2017-2028, from $90.1 billion to $402.1 billion. Figure #2 U.S. Digital Advertising Spend illustrates the 2017-2028 forecast, which is inclusive of the various different sub-categories of Digital Advertising.

Figure #2 U.S. Digital Advertising Spend

Source: Statista

Specifically in 2024, U.S. Digital Advertising is expected to grow a healthy 10% above 2023 levels, according to Statista. There are some categories of Digital Advertising, however, that are expected to grow especially fast in 2024, such as Connected TV (CTV) advertising, programmatic advertising, and influencer advertising. All three categorizations of Digital advertising are estimated to have above-average growth in 2024. According to Statista, influencer advertising in the U.S. will grow at 14% in 2024, while, according to eMarketer, U.S. programmatic and CTV advertising will grow at 13% and 17%, respectively.

In our view, there are several key factors strengthening these verticals. For example, influencer advertising allows brands to reach younger demographics through personalities those audiences trust. Moreover, during a time when there is uncertainty around the future of cookies and other forms of User IDs for targeted advertising, influencer advertising offers an alternative vehicle for audience targeting. Google has indicated plans to no longer use 3rd party cookies to deliver advertising in 2024, although the implementation of this plan has been delayed multiple times before. Additionally, we believe cord cutting is a major factor in the growth of connected TV, likely to be a strong growth vertical for programmatic digital advertising. 

Noble’s Digital Media indices fared well over the past year with most outperforming the S&P 500 over that span, as illustrated in Figure #4 Digital Media LTM Performance. Most recently, the Social Media and Marketing Tech indices have performed strongest, up 18.9% and 24.2%, respectively, over the last 3-months. Figure #3 Digital Media 3-month Performance illustrates the last quarter’s performance by Noble’s Digital Media indices. However, many of the indices were skewed positively by the strong stock performance of the larger cap constituents. For example, META was up 194% over the trailing 12 months, while Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) also performed well, up 77% and 98%, over the same timeframe, respectively. Yet, in Q4 the performance disparity began to abate with the smaller cap constituents of Noble’s Digital indices contributing more to the positive returns, for the most part. We believe this could signal the beginning of shift towards the smaller cap stocks that had depressed valuations in 2023 relative to their large cap counterparts.  

Despite the large cap versus small cap valuation disparity in 2023, there are several small cap stocks that performed well over the past 12 months, outshining respective indices. Notably, Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) was up roughly 500% over the past year. Most of the runup of DRCT occurred late in Q4, after the company reported results far exceeding Street estimates. In our view, DRCT was substantially undervalued and is beginning to be discovered by more investors. Importantly, the increased trading activity has put the stock on investing screens for institutional, small cap investors. Another notable small cap performance was Townsquare Media (TSQ), which has a large Digital Advertising component to its business. TSQ was up 45% in the past year. 

Below, we outlined some of the investment highlights for our closely followed Digital Media companies. In addition, Figure #5  Ad Tech Industry Comparables highlights the stock valuations of the sector. As the chart depicts, our favorite stocks current trade well below the averages for the industry and some of the larger cap names. One of our closely followed companies, AdTheorent, is a stand out. Near current levels, the ADTH shares trade at a modest 2.5 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 Adj. EBITDA estimate, well below the 15.1 times average for the sector. Given the compelling stock valuation, we highlight this company as our current favorite in the industry. In addition, the Direct Digital shares trade at 10 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 Adj. EBITDA estimate, well below the 15.1 times industry average. As such, we view the DRCT shares as compelling. 

Figure #3 Digital Media 3-month Performance

Source: Capital IQ 

Figure #4 Digital Media LTM Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) – Programmatic Advertising. We view DRCT as a compelling play on the Programmatic Advertising market. The company operates a sell-side platform (SSP), in addition to servicing buy-side advertising clients through managing their digital advertising strategies. Importantly, the company’s niche comes from its deep relationships with multi-cultural publishers, a key competitive advantage in our view. In 2024, we estimate the company’s revenue will grow 30% above our 2023 forecast with adj. EBITDA growth of 33%. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

AdTheorent (ADTH) – Programmatic Advertising. ADTH is a unique play on programmatic advertising with cutting-edge audience targeting capabilities, powered by its machine learning (ML) platform. Due to its ML platform, the company does not need to use third-party cookies and other forms of user IDs to target audiences. Not only does this position the company well for Google’s phasing our of third-party cookies, but it also allows the company to offer clients a privacy-forward method of audience targeting. Some key verticals for the company include the healthcare industry as well as connected TV. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.     

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Programmatic & SMB Digital Advertising. TSQ is a media company that has transformed from primarily a radio station operator to a Digital Advertising business, boasting multiple digital verticals. We believe it is a compelling play on the digital transition occurring in small business across the country. The company provides comprehensive digital marketing services to small and medium-sized businesses in its radio markets, leveraging its deep local relationships. Additionally, the company operates a programmatic advertising business, which is benefiting from the growth of CTV.  For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Entravision Communications (EVC) – Programmatic & Social Media Advertising. EVC is one of our favorite social media advertising plays. The company serves as Meta’s exclusive ad agency in several emerging markets, such as, certain regions of Latin America. It also represents TikTok in parts of Asia. In addition, the company owns a programmatic agency, known as Smadex. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here

Figure #5 Ad Tech Industry Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

Traditional Media

The Largest Caps Performed The Best

The Newspaper Index was the only traditional media sector that outperformed the general market in the past quarter and trailing 12 months, as illustrated in Figure #7 Traditional Media LTM Performance. In the latest quarter, Newspaper stocks outperformed the general market, up 20.4% versus down 11.2% for the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Notably, our index performances are market cap weighted, meaning larger cap stocks have a greater impact on index return than small cap stocks. In Q4, only two stocks in the Newspaper index, NYT and NWSA, posted positive returns. These were the largest cap stocks in the index. In Q4, NWSA and NYT were up 22.4% and 18.9%, respectively. For full year 2023, four out of the five companies in the Newspaper index posted positive returns, the strongest performers were NYT and NWSA, up 50.9% and 34.9%, respectively. The Broadcast TV Index was up a modest 5.2% for the quarter and down 11% over the past year. The worst performing index over the last quarter was the Radio Broadcast index, down on 10.9%, as Illustrated in Figure #6 Traditional Media 3-Month Performance. Additionally, the Radio stocks were the worst performing group over the last year as well, down 34.9%. While the Radio Broadcast Index and Broadcast TV Index had a tough year in 2023, we believe both indices should improve in 2024. We highlight some of our favorites in the sector commentary below. 

Figure #6 Traditional Media 3-month Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #7 Traditional Media LTM Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Television Broadcast

Looking For A Better 2024

The Television industry had a tough year with soft core advertising and the absence of the year earlier Political advertising. Television revenues are estimated to have declined as much as 20% in 2023 inclusive of the absence of year earlier Political advertising. Total core television advertising is expected to have decline 3% in 2023, which excludes Political advertising, reflecting disproportionately weak National advertising and resilient Local advertising. Importantly, Television advertising accounts for less than 50% of total television revenue, with Retransmission revenue largely accounting for the balance. With growth in Retransmission revenue, we estimate that total Television revenue declined roughly 10% in 2023. 

We believe that revenue trends will improve in 2024 for the TV industry, supported by an influx of Political advertising and moderating trends in core National advertising. Nonetheless, given the exceptional Political advertising year that is expected, core advertising is expected to decline in 2024, with some advertising being displaced by the large volume of Political. We anticipate that Core advertising will decline roughly 2.3% in 2024, with total TV advertising up nearly 30% (reflective of the influx of Political). Total Television revenue, which includes Retransmission revenues, are expected to increase roughly 20%. 

We believe that the TV industry has some long term fundamental headwinds, which include continued weak audience trends, cord cutting (which adversely affects Retransmission revenue growth opportunities), and shifts in National advertising toward Digital and Influence Marketing. Offsetting these trends are Connected TV and prospects for new revenue opportunities offered by the new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0. Importantly, the very high margin Political advertising every even year allows the industry to reduce debt and/or return capital to shareholders.

Our closely followed Television companies, E.W. Scripps and Gray TV, are among the two companies best positioned to benefit for the influx of Political advertising. Both are in swing markets that should disproportionately benefit from Political. In the case of E.W. Scripps, the company has a developed business model that benefits from cord cutting as consumers switch toward Connected TV and Over The Air Networks. Furthermore, in 2024, E.W. Scripps will benefit from double digit growth in Retransmission revenue as 75% of its subscribers have been renegotiated at significantly higher rates. Both companies, E.W. Scripps and Gray, are highly debt levered. As such, we believe that paring down debt should improve the equity value of the shares in 2024. In addition, we believe that both companies have compelling stock valuations. While the SSP and the GTN shares trade near the industry averages, the industry averages are well below past cycles. We would look for multiple expansion as economic prospects improve. At the same time, as free cash flow improves from high margin Political advertising, debt reduction should allow for a swing toward improved equity values. As such, the shares of SSP and GTN represent a compelling way to play both an improved economic outlook towards the second half of 2024 and influx of high margin Political advertising. Again, SSP has the benefit of strong growth of Retransmission revenue, as well. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP): One of the nation’s largest TV station broadcasters and unique play on the trend toward cable cord cutting. Scripps has nationwide over the air networks that can be viewed with a digital antennae that do not require a cable or satellite service. Given its orientation toward national networks, the company is expected to disproportionately benefit from the influx of national advertising. In addition, the company’s TV stations are located in swing States and in hotly contested markets that should benefit from the influx of Political advertising in 2024. We believe the level of Political will be closely watched by investors as the high margin Political advertising will allow the company to aggressive pare down debt, assuaging investor concerns over its current leverage. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here

Gray Television (GTN): One of the nation’s largest television broadcasters, the company has historically led the industry in terms of revenue  and disproportionately benefits from the influx of Political advertising. In addition, the company is expected to benefit in 2024 from its investment in the development of its studios in the Atlanta area called Assembly Atlanta. The company has yet to disclose the full benefit of the current lease arrangement. We believe that the value of the development and the stream of lease payments are not fully reflected in the current stock valuation. Furthermore, the company is expected to aggressively pare down debt through the influx of high margin Political advertising and the lease payments. In our view, the shares should react well to debt reduction. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Figure #8 TV Industry Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

Radio Broadcast

Debt Struggles

Based on our estimates and our closely followed companies, Radio advertising is expected to have decreased 5.5% for the full year 2023. Illustrated in Figure #9 Radio Advertising Revenue. This decline reflected the adverse impact of rising interest rates and significant inflation, which hurt many consumer oriented advertising categories, as well as financials. In addition, we believe that Radio struggled with some headwinds from declines in listenership, as many consumers continue to work remotely post Covid pandemic. Local advertising was more resilient than National, which tends to be more economically sensitive. We estimate that Local advertising was down 6%, while National was down 19%. The results are expected to reflect the absence of Political advertising from the year earlier biennial elections. Digital advertising was a bright spot, increasing 6%, largely offsetting the decline in National revenue. 

Figure #9 Radio Advertising Revenue 

Source: Statista

Looking forward toward 2024, we expect Radio advertising trends to improve throughout the year, with the expectation that December 2023 may have been the trough for this economic cycle. Both Local and National advertisers should begin to anticipate improved economic conditions with the expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates late in the first quarter. Even though the economy is anticipated to continue to weaken in the first half 2024, advertisers may advertise to drive customer traffic and in anticipation of improved economic conditions. We anticipate that the year will start off weak, with the first quarter 2024 revenue expected to be down, but a more moderate decrease between 3% to 4%. Notably, the industry does not receive a significant amount of Political advertising in the first quarter.

In 2024, we expect consumer spending to soften, which will have an adverse affect on consumer oriented advertising, particularly Retail. Auto advertising is expected to buck that trend. In our view, auto manufacturers and dealers will likely step up advertising and promotions to lure consumers. Assuming lowered interest rates, we expect that Financial advertising should improve in the second half of the year, as well. Revenues are expected to be second half weighted, with improving core advertising trends and the benefit of the influx of Political advertising. Radio does not typically receive a significant amount of Political advertising, but it accounts for a meaningful 3% of total core advertising for the year. Political advertising largely falls in the third and fourth quarter. In addition, National advertising trends should improve in the second half as economic prospects improve. Digital advertising is expected to grow but more moderately than 2023, which is expected to be up 6%. We believe that Digital will increase near 5%, but some companies that have less developed Digital businesses, should report faster growth. 

In total, based on our closely followed companies, we anticipate Radio revenue growth of 5.6% in 2024. Our estimate is inclusive of our Political advertising outlook.

We encourage investors to take a basket approach to investing in the industry, as most companies should benefit from the improving fundamentals in 2024. Below we have outlined some of the investment highlights for our closely followed Radio companies. In addition, Figure #10 Radio Industry Comparables highlight the stock valuations of the sector, which are currently trading at recession type valuations levels. 

Beasley Broadcast (BBGI): We believe that the company will reflect above average revenue and cash flow growth in 2024 due to the prospect of fast growth of its developing Digital businesses. Digital accounted for roughly 20% of the company’s total revenues in 2023 and are expected to be a key revenue driver in 2024. In addition, the company’s stations are located in large, swing State markets and should benefit from the influx of Political advertising. The company does carry above average debt loads, but we expect that the company will pare down debt by roughly $20 million from current levels. The company’s target debt levels are $250 million by year end. For a Beasley Broadcast report and important disclosures, please click here.

Cumulus Media (CMLS): The company is viewed as a leveraged play on a recovery in National advertising. Given the company’s Network business, which is virtually all National advertising, roughly 50% of total company revenues are derived from National advertising. This is significantly higher than the industry average, which is roughly 12%. National advertising is expected to rebound as economic prospects improve in 2024. In addition, the company should disproportionately benefit from the influx of Political advertising. We estimate $23.5 million in high margin Political advertising, a 20% increase from the last Presidential election cycle, expected to total roughly 3.7% of 2024 advertising revenues. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Entravision (EVC): Radio represents a small portion of total company revenues as the company has transitioned toward a Digital agency business model. Over 80% of total company revenues comes from its Digital businesses. As such, Entravision should grow faster than Radio industry averages as its Digital business is expected to grow. Furthermore, Entravision has one of the best balance sheets in the industry, expected to have virtually no net debt by year end. Finally, the EVC shares are among the cheapest in the industry, as highlighted in Figure #    Radio Industry Comparables. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Saga Communications (SGA): Historically, the company has led the industry in terms of revenue and cash flow growth. Over the past few years, it lost that honor as the industry moved to expand its fast growing digital operations. Most recently, Saga has regained its top spot as it has developed its Digital operations and non traditional radio revenue. While the industry has moved Digital to account for as much as 50% of total company revenues, Saga currently is at a more modest   %. Nonetheless, its nascent Digital operations are growing at a rapid rate, allowing total company revenues to exceed industry averages. Saga has one of the best balance sheets in the industry, with a large cash position and virtually no debt. Furthermore, the company pays an attractive dividend, and, as such, represents an attractive total return potential. The SGA shares are largely undiscovered, trading at one of the cheapest stock valuation in the radio sector. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Salem Media Group (SALM): Salem has a relatively stable Radio advertising business given its orientation toward the sale of long and short form block programming. Recently, the company tripped a debt covenant which created investor anxiety over its high debt leverage. The company recently announced that it plans to sell its Salem Church Products division for $30 million, it refinanced its revolver, and announced the sale of its money losing book publishing company, Regnery. In addition to these measures, the company has streamlined its management team and lowered costs. Recently, the company decided to delist, rather than seek alternatives to remain on its current exchange. In addition, the company has not closed on its planned sale of its Church Products division. As such, we believe that the company has significant hurdles to put itself on a path toward free cash flow generation and debt reduction. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Townsquare Media (TSQ): Townsquare has led the charge toward a Digital transformation, with over 50% of its revenues from its Digital businesses. Importantly, its Digital businesses have margins are in line or better than its traditional Broadcast business. While a segment of its Digital business declined in 2023, we expect that it will regain its revenue momentum in 2024, particularly in the second half. At that time, the company is expected to benefit from an influx of high margin Political advertising, as well. We believe that the company has one of the best Digital strategies in the industry and is widely viewed as the model for other aspiring Digital divisions at other Radio companies. The shares trade below that of its industry peers, in spite of its above average revenue and cash flow growth. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Figure #10 Radio Industry Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

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All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

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transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..

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Salem Media Group (SALM) – A Stronger, More Profitable Company Is Emerging


Thursday, December 28, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Announces a new credit facility. The company announced that it has a new $26.0 million credit facility with Siena Lending Group, replacing its prior revolver with Wells Fargo Bank. We believe that the new revolver allows some financial flexibility as the company works to close on the sale of its Church Publishing division. 

Likely to largely pay off the revolver. The sale of Salem Church Products business to Gloo, LLC for $30 million has been somewhat delayed, but is still on track to close imminently. In our view, the proceeds from the sale will be used to largely pay off the company’s revolver, providing further financial flexibility. 

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Digital, Media & Technology Industry Report: A Building Case For Small Caps

Monday, October 16, 2023

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Overview: A new small-cap cycle? Small cap stocks have underperformed the large cap stocks for the past several years. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, one of the largest in over 20 years. Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 13 to 15 times. Are we on a cusp of a small cap cycle? 

Digital Media & Technology: Stocks Outperform – But Don’t Get Too Excited. Each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, which are market cap weighted, outperformed the S&P 500 in the third quarter, but the double-digit gains from the previous quarter moderated significantly. Despite these relatively positive results, the prevailing theme within each sector was that the largest cap stocks performed the best, while smaller cap stocks across a variety of sectors struggled.

Television Broadcasting: Advertising Stabilizing?As we look toward the third quarter, local advertising appears to be weakening as the economy appears to be slowing. But, national appears to be improving. In addition, while it was assumed that Political would increase in the fourth quarter due to the run-off of the Republican presidential candidates, we believe that President Biden has recently stepped-up advertising in the third quarter, particularly in Hispanic communities.

Radio Broadcasting: Shoring up balance sheets. As many radio companies face a challenged revenue environment and at the same time invested in faster growth digital revenue, some companies have been caught carrying a substantial amount of debt. In this report, we highlight one company that was able to shore up its balance sheet through asset sales. 

Publishing:Stocks outperform. It may be hard to imagine for some investors, but the Publishing stocks outperformed in both the latest quarter and for the trailing 12 months the S&P 500! But, there is still a wide valuation gap between most of Publishers and the shares of The New York Times, with the NYT shares at 15 times cash flow and the rest near 5.  

Overview

The case for small caps

Small cap investors have gone through a rough period. For the past several years, investors have anticipated an economic downturn. With these concerns, investors turned toward “safe haven” large cap stocks, which typically have the ability to weather the economic headwinds and have enough trading volume should investors need to exit the position. Since 2018, small cap stocks have underperformed the general stock market, with annualized returns of just 3.7% as measured by the S&P 600 Small Cap Index versus the general market of 10.2% as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Another small cap index, the Russell 2000, increased a more modest 2.9% annually over the comparable period. The S&P 500 is larger cap, with the minimum market cap of $14.6 billion. The S&P 600 is smaller cap, a range of $850 million to $3.7 billion, with the Russell 2000 median market cap $950 million. Some of the even smaller cap stocks, those between $100 million to $850 million, have significantly underperformed the S&P 600. This is the first time that small caps underperformed a bullish period for all stocks since the 1940s. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, large and small cap, one of the largest in over 20 years.

Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 13 to 15 times. By another measure, small cap stocks may be the only class trading below historic 25 year average to the median Enterprise Value to EBIT. Why the large valuation disparity? We believe that there is higher risk in the small cap stocks, especially given that some companies may not be cash flow positive, have capital needs, or have limited share float. But, investors seem to have thrown the baby out with the bathwater. While those small cap stocks are on the more speculative end of the scale, many small cap stocks are growing revenues and cash flow, have capable balance sheets, and/or are cash flow positive. For attractive emerging growth companies, the trading activity will resolve itself over time. Some market strategists suggest that small cap stocks trade at the most undervalued in the market, as much as a 30% to 40% discount to fair value. 

Are we on a cusp of a small cap cycle? Some fund managers think so. Such a cycle could last 10 years or longer. In this report, we highlight a few of our small cap favorites in the Media sector, those include companies that have attractive growth characteristics, some with or without an improving economy, capable balance sheets, and limited capital needs. Our current favorites based on growth opportunity and stock valuation include: Direct Digital (DRCT), Entravision (EVC), E.W. Scripps (SSP), Gray Television (GTN), and Townsquare Media (TSQ). 

Source: Morningstar and Noble Capital Markets Estimates. For more information; https://www.morningstar.com/markets/fading-recession-fears-cheap-valuations-have-small-cap-stocks-looking-attractive

Digital Media & Technology

Stocks Outperform – But Don’t Get Too Excited

After increasing by 8% in the second quarter of 2023, the S&P 500 was unable to hold onto those gains in the third quarter. The S&P Index decreased by 3.6% in the third quarter, a decline which we attribute to the market revising its interest rate expectations to one in which rates would remain “higher for longer”.  Large cap stocks that weighed on the broad market index included tech stocks such as Apple (AAPL: -12%), Microsoft (MSFT: -7%) and Tesla (TSLA:  -4%).  Despite this small step backwards, the S&P 500 Index increased by 20% through the first nine months of the year. 

Each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, which are market cap weighted, outperformed the S&P 500 in the third quarter, but the double-digit gains from the previous quarter (2Q 2023) moderated significantly. Digital Media 3-Month Performance Sectors that outperformed the S&P 500’s 4% decrease include Noble’s Digital Media Index (+6%), Social Media Index (+4%), Gaming Index (+3%), Ad Tech Index (+1%) and MarTech Index (-3%).  Despite these relatively positive results, the prevailing theme within each sector was that the largest cap stocks performed the best while smaller cap stocks across a variety of sectors struggled.

Figure #1 Digital Media 3-Month Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Perhaps more importantly, each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices have outperformed the S&P 500 over the latest twelve months as illustrated in Figure #2 Digital Versus S&P 500 LTM. The S&P 500 Index has increased by 20% over the last year (through 9/30/2023), which trailed the performance of the each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, as shown in Figure #3 Digital Media LTM Performance.  

Figure #2 Digital Versus S&P 500 LTM

Figure #3 Digital Media LTM Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Alphabet Powers Digital Media Index Higher Despite Broader-Based Sector Weakness

The best performing index during the quarter was the Noble’s Digital Media Index, but the sector’s “strong” performance is deceiving. Shares of Alphabet (a.k.a. Google:  GOOGL) increased by 9% during the quarter, and the company size relative to its peers helps explain the vast majority of the sector’s performance. Google’s market cap is 8x larger than its next largest “peer” in Netflix, and it is 160 times that of the average market cap of its Digital Media peers.  Google beat expectations across all metrics (revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow) and guided to improved profitability as it streamlines workflows. The company is also increasingly perceived as a beneficiary of AI.  While Alphabet shares performed well, they mask the fact that shares of only 2 of the sector’s 12 stocks were up during the third quarter. The other Digital Media stock that performed well in the quarter was FUBO (FUBO), whose shares increased by 29% in 3Q 2023.  Of the 10 other digital content providers in the sector, 7 of them posted double-digit stock price declines in the third quarter.     

Large Cap Meta Powers the Social Media Index Higher

Shares in Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) rose for the third straight quarter. Shares increased by 5% and were up 150% through the first nine months of the year. Meta shares increased by 8% at the start of the third quarter due to excitement around the launch of Threads, Meta’s answer to Twitter.  Over 100 million people signed up for Threads within the first five days of its rollout and positions the company well for continued revenue growth once it begins to monetize this new opportunity.    

As with the Digital Media Index, the Social Media Index masked underlying weakness across several smaller cap stocks.  Of the 6 stocks in the Social Media Index, only Meta shares increased during the quarter.  Several social media companies performed poorly during the quarter including Spark Networks (LOVL.Y: -59%), which filed to delist its shares, Nextdoor Holdings (KIND: -44%), which has struggled to reach profitability, and Snap (SNAP: -25%), which guided to revenue declines in 3Q 2023.    

“No Love” For Small Cap Stocks

As was the case in the Digital Media and Social Media sectors, the same trends held true in the other sectors:  in general, large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks. For example, Noble’s Video Gaming Index increased by 3% in the third quarter, driven by Activision Blizzard (ATVI: +11%), and to a lesser extent SciPlay Corp (SCP: +16%).  However, 7 other stocks in the video gaming sector posted stock price declines in the third quarter. Larger cap names such as EA Sports (EA: -7%) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO: -5%) posted mid-single digit stock price declines while every small cap video gaming stock posted double digit declines. 

Noble’s Ad Tech Index increased by 1% during the quarter driven by shares of AppLovin (APP: +55%), and Taboola (TBLA: +22%).  However, just 7 of the sector’s 20 stocks were up for the quarter, and 10 stocks in the sector posted double digit declines. One of our favorites is an attractive growth, small cap company, Direct Digital. The DRCT shares declined 20% in the quarter, in spite of posting favorable Q2 revenue that beat expectations and raising full year revenue estimates. Direct Digital leads our list of favorites in the digital Ad Tech companies. As Figure #4  Ad Tech Comparables indicate, Direct Digital is among the cheapest in the industry trading at 4.7 Enterprise Value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate, well below larger cap peers trading at multiples of 12, 13, or even much higher. Finally, Noble’s MarTech Index decreased by 3% (the only index that declined during the quarter), with the sector’s largest companies, Adobe (ADBE: +4%) and Shopify (SHOP: -16%) posting mixed results. Outside of these mega-cap stocks, the theme of underlying weakness prevailed: only 5 of the 20 stocks in the sector posted stock price increases, while one was flat and the other 14 were down.  Eleven of the 20 stocks in the MarTech sector posted double digit stock price declines. One of our favorites in the sector, Harte Hanks performed well in the quarter up 18.8%. This was a welcomed bounce from the steep decline in the shares over the past 12 months, down 44%. The company stumbled on quarterly expectations. We believe that the sell-off was over done, providing a compelling opportunity for investors. As Figure #5  MarTech Comparables illustrates, the HHS shares trade at 3.8 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate, a fraction of the multiples of many of its larger cap peers. We view the HHS shares as among our favorites in the sector.   

Figure #4 Ad Tech Comparables

Source: Company filings & Eikon

Figure #5 MarTech Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

Traditional Media

Virtually all traditional media stocks underperformed the general market in the past quarter and trailing 12 months, as illustrated in Figure #6  Traditional Media LTM Performance, save the Publishing group. In the latest quarter, Publishing stocks outperformed the general market, up 3.0% versus down 3.6% for the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index. The average Publishing stock is up 6.9% over the past 12 months, with some of the larger cap publishing stocks up significantly more, over 20%. More details on the Publishing performance is in the Publishing section of this report. In the last quarter, the Radio stocks were the worse performing group, down on average 10.2%, As illustrated in Figure #7 Traditional Media 3-Month Performance. In addition, the Radio stocks were the worst performing group in the third quarter as well, down and average of 12.7% for the quarter.  

Figure #6 Traditional Media LTM Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #7 Traditional Media 3-Month Performance 

Source: Capital IQ

Television Broadcasting

Have the TV stocks discounted too much?

We believe that the economic headwinds of rising interest rates and inflation have begun to hit local advertising. Local advertising had been relatively stable, favorably influenced by a resurgence of Auto advertising. Notably, local advertising fared much better than national advertising, which was down in the absence of Political advertising. As we look toward the fourth quarter, local advertising appears to be weakening. But, notably, national advertising appears to be doing much better, driven by an early influx of Political advertising. While it was assumed that Political would increase in the fourth quarter due to the run-off of the Republican presidential candidates, especially in early primary States, we believe that President Biden has recently stepped-up advertising, particularly to the Hispanic community. We have noticed Biden advertising even in Florida! So, what does this mean for media fundamentals?

It is difficult to predict where Political dollars will be spent and not all Political dollars will be spent evenly, geographically or by stations in a particular market. Furthermore, Political dollars may be pulled back in a market should a particular candidate pull ahead in the polls. Political dollars were anticipated to be spent in early primary States, specifically for the Republican candidates. But, the Biden money is a surprise. Biden appears to be spending early and in areas to solidify a key voting block, Hispanics. Of course, the Biden campaign may broaden its spending to other voting blocks as well. In our view, 2024 will be a banner year for Political advertising given the large amount of Political fundraising by the candidates and by Political Action Committees. The prospect of weak local advertising, however, may cast a pall over the current expected strong revenue growth in 2024. Many analysts, including myself, expected that economic prospects would improve in 2024, which would have provided a favorable tailwind for a significant improvement in total TV advertising in 2024. Certainly, it is likely that the Fed may lower interest rates in 2024, potentially providing a boost to local advertising prospects, but that improvement may come late in the year. But, overall, in spite of the weakening Local advertising environment, given the improving National advertising trends, overall TV advertising appears to have stabilized. 

For now, we are cautiously optimistic about 2024, with the caveat that revenue growth may be somewhat tempered given the current weak local advertising trends. Nonetheless, we believe that we are nearing the trough for this economic cycle. Some companies, like E.W. Scripps, are in a favorable cycle for Retransmission renewals. Retransmission revenues now account for a hefty 50% of Scripps’ total broadcast revenue. In Scripps’ case, 75% of its subscribers are under renewal, which it recently announced was completed. As such, the company reaffirmed guidance that Retransmission revenue will increase 15% in 2024 and lead to a substantial increase in net Retransmission revenue. We remain constructive on TV stocks, as high margin Political advertising should boost balance sheets and improve stock valuations.

In the latest quarter, TV stocks underperformed the general market. As Figure #7 Traditional Media 3-Month Performanceillustrates, the Noble TV Index decreased 13.2%, underperforming the 3.6% decline in the general market as measured by the S&P 500. The poor performance of the latest quarter adversely affected the trailing 12 month performance, bringing the Noble TV Index to a 17.6% decline for the trailing 12 months. Individual stocks performed more poorly, with only the shares of Fox Corporation registering a modest gain for the trailing 12 months of 2.7%. The Noble TV Index is market cap weighted, and, as such, Fox with a $15 billion market cap, carried the index. Outside of the relatively strong performance of this large cap stock, all of the TV stocks were down and down big, between 18% to 59% over the past 12 months. 

We believe that investors have shied away from cyclicals, smaller cap stocks, and from companies with higher debt levels. This accounts for the poor performance of Gray Television and E.W. Scripps, both of which have elevated debt leverage given recent acquisitions. Both were among the poorest performers for the latest quarter and for the trailing 12 months. The GTN shares were down 12% in the third quarter and 38% for the last 12 months; the SSP shares down 40% and 58%, respectively.

We believe that the sell-off has been overdone, especially as the industry is expected to cycle toward an improved fundamental environment in 2024. As Figure #8 TV Industry Comparables indicate, the Broadcast TV stocks trade at a modest 5.3 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimates, well below historic 20 year average trading multiples of 8 to 12 times. We believe that the depressed valuations largely discount the prospect of an economic downturn and do not reflect the revenue and cash flow upside as we cycle into a Political year. Given the steep valuation discount to historic levels, we believe that the stocks are 15% to 20% below levels where the stocks normally would be given a favorable Political cycle. Our favorites in the TV space include: Entravision (EVC), one of the beneficiaries of the influx of Political advertising to Hispanics; E.W. Scripps (SSP), a play on Political, with the favorable fundamental tailwind of strong Retransmission revenue growth; and, Gray Television (GTN), one of the leading Political advertising plays. 

Figure #8 TV Industry Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

Radio Broadcasting

Shoring up balance sheets. 

The Radio industry has struggled in the first half as National advertising weakened throughout the year. On average National advertising was down roughly20% or more for many Radio broadcasters. Local held up relatively well, although down in the range of 3% to 5%. Fortunately, for many broadcasters, a push into Digital, which grew in the first half, helped to stabilize total company revenues. As we look to the fourth quarter, we believe that Local advertising is weakening, expected to be down in the range of 5% to 7%, or more in some of the larger markets. But, for some, National advertising is improving, driven by Political advertising. But, Political is not evenly spread. As such, we anticipate that there will be a cautious outlook for many in the industry for the second half of the year. 

For some in the industry, the challenged revenue environment has put a strain on managing cash flows to maintain hefty debt loads. We believe that debt leverage is among the top concern for investors. Many of the poorest performing stocks in the quarter and for the trailing 12 months carry some of the highest debt leverage in the industry. The Noble Radio Index decreased a significant 13.7% in the latest quarter compared with a 3.7% decline for the general market. But, a look at the individual stock performance tells a more disappointing story. The shares of Salem Media declined 38% in the latest quarter, bringing 12 month performance to a 44% decline. The shares of iHeart Media decline 49% for the year. 

Notably, Salem Media assuaged much of its liquidity concerns with recent asset sales. Such sales will bring in roughly $30 million, allowing it to fully pay off its $22 million revolver and have some flexibility with remaining cash on its balance sheet. We do not believe that investors have fully credited the significance of the recent asset sales. 

One bright spot in the group has been the shares of Townsquare Media. While the TSQ shares gave back a significant 27% in the third quarter, the shares are still up 20% over the past 12 months, among one of the best performance in the industry. We believe that the company’s initiation of a substantial dividend resonated with investors. 

While the industry faces fundamental headwinds given the current economic challenges, we believe that most companies have made a shift toward faster growth, digital business models. In addition, we believe that Radio will see a lift from Political advertising in 2024, although not to the extent that the TV industry will see. Nonetheless, we look for an improving advertising scenario in 2024. As such, we are constructive on the industry. One of our current favorites leads the industry in its Digital transition, Townsquare Media. As Figure #9 Radio Industry Comparables indicates, the TSQ shares are among the cheapest in the industry, trading at 5.1 times EV to our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate, well below the average of 7.1 times for the industry. In addition, we like Saga Communications, one of the cheapest stocks in the industry, trading near 4 times EV to 2024 adj. EBITDA. 

Figure #9 Radio Industry Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

Publishing

Further cost cutting will cut deep. 

Publishers are not likely to be spared from the weakening local advertising business. But, publishers have a play book on areas to cut expenses to manage cash flows. Certainly, we believe that its Digital businesses should help offset some of the anticipated revenue declines on its print legacy business. We believe that publishers are eliminating print days. Such a move likely will indicate further pressure on print revenues, but would not proportionately decrease cash flow. Some print days have very little advertising and/or advertisers may shift some spending to other print days. Lee Enterprises indicated in its last call that it will go down to 3 print days in 44 of its smaller markets. We believe that the move has been a success. While revenues may have decreased slightly more than expected given the current weak advertising environment, we believe that cost savings have been more than anticipated. 

While many publishers would like to have a long runway for its cash flowing print business, such possible moves would necessarily increase the digital transition. Notably, with just some stabilization of revenues on the print side, many publishers have the potential to show total company revenue growth given benefit from digital revenue. With the prospect of strategies that may cut print days and the current weak local advertising environment, we believe that total revenue growth may be pushed out to 2025. 

Many of the Publishing stocks were written off long ago. But, surprisingly, the Publishing stocks have been among the best stock performers in the latest quarter and for the trailing 12 months. The Noble Publishing Index increased a solid 36% in the trailing 12 months, outperforming the general market (as measured by the S&P 500) of 19% in the comparable time frame. In the third quarter, Publishing stocks increased 3.5%, outperforming the S&P 500, which declined 3.7%. All of the publishers increased, with the exception of Lee Enterprises. The Lee shares increased substantially a year earlier on takeover rumors. Since then the shares have come back down to earth, while the rest of the industry moved higher. The stronger performers in the industry, however, were the larger cap companies, such as News Corp and The New York Times. In the latest quarter, the shares of The New York Times increased roughly 5% and the shares are up 27% for the trailing 12 months. The shares of Gannett increased a solid 9% in the latest quarter, as well. 

As Figure #10 Publishing Industry Comparables illustrate, there is a disparity among some of the larger, more diversified companies, like The New York Times and News Corporation. The NYT shares trade at a hefty 15.7 times EV to 2024 adj. EBITDA estimates, well above much of the pack currently trading in the 5 multiple range. We believe that this valuation gap should narrow, especially as many of the companies, like Lee and Gannett, have a burgeoning Digital business. While the industry faces secular challenges of its Print business and there are economic headwinds in the very near term, we believe that companies like Lee Enterprises have the ability to manage cash flows and grow its Digital businesses. Given the compelling stock valuation disparity, the shares of Lee Enterprises lead our list of favorites in the sector. 

Figure #10 Publishing Industry Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

For more information and disclosures on companies mentioned in this report, click on the following:

Beasley Broadcast

Cumulus Media

Direct Digital Holdings

Entravision

E.W. Scripps

Harte Hanks

Gray Television

Lee Enterprises

Saga Communications

Salem Media Group

Townsquare Media 

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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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Snail Revolutionizes Single-Player With Innovative Twitch Integration in New Game

Gaming company Snail, Inc. is shaking up single-player games with the launch of Survivor Mercs, featuring groundbreaking Twitch integration that allows streamers to actively engage viewers.

Survivor Mercs is a roguelite military action game for PC. But what makes it truly unique is the ability for streamers to let their audience influence gameplay through real-time voting on upgrades, mercenaries and enemies.

This pioneering social element empowers streamers to meaningfully interact with fans during solo play for the first time. It expands engagement beyond passive viewing, creating a more immersive community experience.

As streaming continues growing, innovative integrations like Snail’s can profoundly impact both streamers and game developers. The company is leading the way in exploring how to make single-player gaming more social and fun to watch.

For streamers, it unlocks new ways to creatively involve their community. For developers, it opens up opportunities to design streamer-friendly games tailored for live audiences.

Snail’s CEO called the integration a “small step” toward reimagining audience participation in live gaming. But it could be a giant leap for revolutionizing solo play for the streaming era.

Beyond the groundbreaking Twitch element, Survivor Mercs promises challenging roguelite action with thousands of character combinations and procedurally generated maps.

Snail is pioneering the future of streaming-based gameplay. The company’s innovative integration of Twitch with solo play in Survivor Mercs kicks open the door to deeper social interaction and engagement between streamers and their loyal fans.

Take a look at Snail Inc., a global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment.

Release – Salem Media Announces New Kids Podcast with Rachael Groll of Hearing Jesus on the LifeAudio Podcast Network

Research News and Market Data on SALM

September 11, 2023 6:21pm EDT

IRVING, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Salem Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SALM) announced today the launch of the podcast show Hearing Jesus for Kids on Salem-owned LifeAudio Podcast Network. The Hearing Jesus for Kids podcast is a daily audio program designed to help kids explore the fascinating stories of the Bible and apply the lessons they learn to their everyday lives. Following the success of the Hearing Jesus podcast, which consistently ranks in the top 200 charts on Apple Podcasts for Religion & Spirituality, host Rachael Groll has expanded her creativity and knowledge to reach the next generation of Christians with this new companion show.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230911758632/en/

Rachael Groll (Photo: Business Wire)

“Sometimes people think that the Bible is just for adults, but God actually really wants kids to know about Him,” Rachael Groll said. “On this podcast, we are going to learn all about God’s big story and how he shows Himself to us through the Bible.”

The pilot episode, available on all podcast platforms, uncovers hidden stories of brave heroes, epic battles, and amazing miracles that set the stage for the arrival of Jesus.

ABOUT RACHAEL GROLL:

Rachael Groll is the host of the Hearing Jesus podcast, one of Apple Podcasts’ most successful shows. As a pastor, missionary and author, her greatest calling in life is to help women learn how to hear the Lord more clearly in their lives. Rachael has served both locally and globally, focusing on evangelism and discipleship, and counts it a privilege to share God’s Word on the podcast every week. Rachael has her undergraduate degree in Ministerial Leadership from Southeastern University and received her MA in Bible Exposition at Biola University in May. Rachael is the author of She Hears: Learning to Listen to Jesus as well as numerous other titles. She and her husband, Tim, live in rural Pennsylvania and have three beautiful daughters. Find more from Rachael at her website, shehears.org.

ABOUT LIFEAUDIO PODCAST NETWORK:

For more than 20 years, Salem Web Network has delivered inspirational Christian content all over the world through some of the most recognizable brands in Christian media. Now, with LifeAudio Podcast Network, we are proud to offer a suite of captivating and original new audio content from trusted pastors, authors, and ministry leaders. Home to top-charting shows like Your Daily PrayerAbide Bible Sleep Meditation and The Becket Cook Show, LifeAudio is proud to bring entertaining, life-changing, and family-friendly podcasts for the engaged, evangelical Christian audience. Learn more about us on FacebookTwitter/XInstagram and TikTok.

ABOUT SALEM MEDIA GROUP:

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape. Learn more about Salem Media Group, Inc. at www.salemmedia.comFacebook and Twitter.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230911758632/en/

Evan D. Masyr
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
(805) 384-4512
evan@salemmedia.com

Source: Salem Media Group, Inc.

Released September 11, 2023

X.com’s CEO Speaks Up

Source: CNBC, (August 10, 2023)

X, the Company Formerly Known as Twitter – Here’s Why It Rebranded

If you’re like me, when Elon Musk announced a rebranding of Twitter to the new name X, you waited for the punchline – or thought of it as a stunt. Although weeks later I’m still typing “Twitter” into my search bar, and still refer to posts as tweets.” I have become sure that this is no stunt, it is a business decision. A decision that begs the question, Why?

This week, X’s CEO, Linda Yaccarino shared her insights in a CNBC interview. She explained the company’s decision to rebrand from Twitter, citing alignment with owner Elon Musk’s overall strategic vision for the platform and how Musk, who has owned the URL X.com since his PayPal days, has championed the social media company as the future, all-encompassing app.

“Elon has been talking about X, the everything app, for a very long time,” Yaccarino said during the interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen. “Even when we announced that I was joining the company, I was joining the company to partner with Elon to transform Twitter into X, the everything app,” Yaccarino said.

Yaccarino, who took the helm in June, indicated the transformation and growth include extended video content, articles, and even subscriptions to content providers.

“Think about what’s happened since the acquisition,” X’s CEO elaborated, “Experiences and evolution into long-form video and articles, subscribe to your favorite creators, who are now earning a real living on the platform. You look at video, and soon you’ll be able to make video chat calls without having to give your phone number to anyone on the platform.”

Attention was brought to the once microblogging platform’s  intentions to facilitate transactions between users, friends, and content creators. The past Twitter was confining, she explained, the new brand will allow evolution without a legacy mindset.

“The rebrand represented really a liberation from Twitter,” she said. “A liberation that allowed us to evolve past a legacy mindset and thinking. And to reimagine how everyone, how everyone on Spaces who’s listening, everybody who’s watching around the world. It’s going to change how we congregate, how we entertain, and how we transact all in one platform.”

The CNBC host asked about the risk in light of name recognition, Yaccarino responded likening the change Johnson & Johnson made by spinning off Band-Aids and Tylenol brands under the new name Kenvue. Her reply suggested the tech giant is almost entrepreneurial now, and can begin with a start-up mentality.

“If you stay Twitter, or you stay whatever your previous brand is, change tends to be only incremental. And you get graded by a legacy report card,” Yaccarino said. “And at X we think about what’s possible. Not the incremental change of what can’t be done.” She pointed to the new product changes and infrastructure improvements, saying it “answers the question of ‘why rebrand?’”

About Yaccarino’s Duties

She is operating independently under Musk’s leadership, Yaccarino assured.

“The roles of Elon and myself are well-defined.” She continued, “Elon is working on accelerating the rebrand and working on the future,”  adding, “and I’m responsible for the rest. Running the company, from partnerships to legal to sales to finance.”

Questions regarding Yaccarino’s autonomy within Musk’s framework had arisen due to his comprehensive control over the company and his ventures like Tesla and SpaceX.

Yaccarino, formerly a senior advertising executive at NBC Universal, underscored X’s dedication to enhancing the advertiser experience. This commitment arose from brands withdrawing from the platform following Musk’s acquisition of Twitter.

A large part of the Twitter brand has in the past been questioned by advertisers related to trust and safety. Yaccarino disclosed that X’s trust and safety team is now more capable compared to its pre-acquisition state. While acknowledging that not all content may align with everyone’s views, she highlighted efforts to improve the platform’s content environment.

In November, Twitter disbanded its ethical artificial intelligence team and downsized its trust and safety department. This move halted the team’s work on “algorithmic amplification monitoring,” which mainly aimed to scrutinize content amplification during elections and political events. This stands in sharp contrast to the trust which the new brand has been building.

Rebuilding advertiser confidence stands as a large challenge for Yaccarino. Musk has claimed continuous spikes in user engagement, but concrete data supporting these claims are slim. Yaccarino pointed out the return of prominent brands like Coca-Cola and Visa to advertising under her leadership, facilitated by her direct engagement with marketing and communication executives.

Yaccarino asserted that brands are now insulated from the risk of adjacency to problematic content. She acknowledged that content that is “lawful but awful” can be challenging to manage but emphasized the company’s new content controls in reducing such risks for advertisers.

Yaccarino also addressed the threat posed by Meta’s Threads, indicating that while it hasn’t fully taken off since its high-profile launch, it’s essential to stay vigilant about competitors. Despite already commanding substantial advertiser spending through Instagram and Facebook, Meta’s Threads has yet to introduce advertising.

As for a potential octagon face-off between Musk and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Yaccarino took a playful stance saying that if the event occurred, Musk “is training” and noted the potential for a great brand sponsorship opportunity.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/twitter-rebrands-x-elon-musk-loses-iconic-bird-logo-rcna95880

https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-says-new-band-aid-and-tylenol-company-to-be-named-kenvue-11664365578

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/08/10/x-corp-now-a-much-healthier-and-safer-platform-than-a-year-ago-says-linda-yaccarino.html

Digital, Media & Technology Industry Report: From Bad To Worse?

Monday, July 24, 2022

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Overview: Is The Recession Here? Economic activity is slowing, taking pressure off of inflation. But, the Fed seems intent on pushing interest rates higher, likely through the balance of this year. As such, recent economic forecasts anticipate GDP to contract over the next few quarters. This does not paint a favorable picture for advertising in the very near term. But, given the increased likelihood of a recession, has timeliness in media stocks improved?  

Digital Media & Technology: A broad based recovery? For the second quarter in a row, the best performing index was Noble’s Social Media Index, which increased by 34% in 2Q 2023, followed by Noble’s Ad Tech Index (+24%), MarTech Index (+18%), Digital Media Index (+16%), and Video Gaming Index (+5%). The largest stocks carried the performance in each of the indices. Can the stocks hold on to recent gains?

Broadcast Television: Are ad trends really improving? Recent reports indicate that television advertising is showing some improvement. While it is likely that Auto and Political advertising are bright spots, we remain skeptical that core advertising pacings are improving in the third quarter given the weak economic outlook. Nonetheless, the TV stocks appear to be cheap and we highlight a few of our key favorites.

Broadcast Radio: The pall over radio. Soft advertising trends heading into an economic downturn does not bode well for companies, like Audacy, that are in the midst of a financial restructuring. We believe that high debt leverage is the pall over the stocks. It is likely that many radio companies will go through a round of cost cutting to shore up cash flow in the midst of an economic downturn.

Publishing: Cash flow gurusWe do not believe that the Publishing industry will be spared from the weak advertising environment. The industry has a playbook for cutting costs, however, and has a history of maintaining cash flow through difficult times. 

Overview

The Recession Is Here

Figure #1 YoY Real GDP Growth illustrates that the economy grew post pandemic through the first quarter 2023, reflecting a rebounding economy, fueled by government spendingBut, economic activity is slowing, taking pressure off of inflation. Nonetheless, the Fed seems intent on pushing interest rates higher, likely through the balance of this year. Most economists anticipate that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points two times in the second half of this year. Not only will the interest rate increases be a headwind for the economy, but government spending, a key driver to the economy this year, is likely to wane. Recent economic forecasts anticipate GDP to contract over the next few quarters, a classic definition of an economic recession. The Conference Board of Economic Forecasts anticipate that the US economy will contract -1.2% in Q3 2023, -1.9% in Q4 2023, and -1.1% in Q1 2024.

This does not paint a favorable picture for advertising in the very near term. Advertising is highly correlated to personal disposable income, particularly discretionary income. If consumers have discretionary income, companies advertise for them to spend. As Figure #2 YoY Real Disposable Income Growth highlights, disposable income has declined over the past 18 months. Not surprisingly, economically sensitive National advertising has been down nearly 4 quarters and at high double digit rates. Given the significant declines, as much as 25% in each quarter for the past year, National advertising trends should moderate, given that the comps get easier. As such, even with an economic downturn becoming more visible, it is possible that National advertising declines may moderate.

National advertisers tend to spend when there is light toward the end of an economic recession, when consumer personal disposable income shows signs that it will improve and consumers have the propensity to spend. In our view, that light at the end of the tunnel is still pretty dim given the economic forecast that anticipates a decline in GDP through the Q1 2024. While the visibility of an improvement in National advertising seems to have improved as we enter an economic downturn, especially given the easing comps and the benefit from Political advertising (expected to begin in Q3 2023), we think that it is too early to be optimistic. The length and severity of an economic downturn is not yet visible. 

What does this mean for the stock market and for media stocks? Figure #3 Federal Funds Rate Vs. S&P 500 performance illustrates the recent increases in Fed Funds rates had little effect on the general stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Unfortunately, late cycle and economically sensitive media companies declined or under performed the stock marketIn spite of Fed Fund rate increases over the past year, the S&P 500 Index increased 18% in the last 12 months. The anticipation of an economic recession, however, weighed on media stocks. The stock performance of the various media sectors that we follow are discussed in this report, but have generally under performed the market. The exception to the poor performance were the Internet and Digital Media stocks, which had a broad based recovery. Is it possible that early cycle media stocks will outperform the general market in the near term? In our view, yes. But, this may mean that the general market may decline as media stocks decline less. Historically, it has been the case to buy media stocks in the midst of a recession as media stocks strongly outperform the general market in a economic recovery. But given the likely disappointment in revenue in the coming quarters, it is likely that media stocks will be volatile as investors weigh the near term revenue and earnings disappointments to the prospect of a revenue rebound in an improved economic scenario. This would suggest that if one would try to time the stocks, investors may want to wait a quarter or two, buy on the improved momentum. This may mean that one might miss the large gains. As such, for long term investors, we believe that we are nearer to the bottom and that the downside appears relatively limited, valuations appear compelling. But, given the anticipate volatility in the near term, media investors should look for opportunistic purchases and accumulate positions in our favorite media names highlighted in this report. 

Figure #1 YoY Real GDP Growth

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Figure #2 YoY Real Disposable Income Growth

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Figure #3 Federal Funds Rate Vs. S&P 500 performance

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & Yahoo Finance

Digital Media & Technology

A Broad-Based Recovery in Shares 

The Internet and Digital Media sectors rebounded nicely over the last 12 months (LTM). As Figure #4 LTM Internet & Digital Technology Performance illustrates, the Video Gaming index was the only sector that underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year. The S&P 500 Index was up 17.6% over the LTM, outperforming the Video gaming index’s increase of 9.7% and in line with Noble’s Digital Media Index increase of 18%. The MarTech Index and AdTech Index both performed strongly, increasing 35.8% and 39.8%, respectively. The Social Media index had the strongest performance of the indices, increasing an impressive 80.2% over the LTM. 

Figure #4 LTM Internet & Digital Technology Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Despite macroeconomic headwinds that include higher interest rates, a regional banking crisis, elevated inflation and a war in Europe, the S&P 500 powered higher for the third quarter in a row. The S&P 500 Index continued its streak of steady increases, with an 8% increase in the Index in 2Q 2023, which followed a 7% increase in 1Q 2023 and a 7% increase in 4Q 2022. The broad index is up a healthy 24% since the end of the third quarter of 2022.  The S&P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022, and is up 26% from that date through mid-July. 

The S&P 500’s performance was driven primarily by its largest constituents. As a market weighted index, the largest stocks have an outsized impact on its performance, and that was certainly the case in 2Q. Eight of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 Index were up in 2Q 2023 by 2x-3x or more than the Index’s 8% gain. Stocks that powered the Index higher included Nvidia (NVDA, +52%), Meta Platforms (a.k.a Facebook, META, +35%), Netflix (NFLX, +28%), Amazon (AMZN, +26%), Tesla (TSLA, +26%), Microsoft (MSFT, +18%), Apple (AAPL, +18%) and Google (GOOGL, +15%). 

Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices, which are also market cap weighted, also powered higher thanks to the biggest constituents in their respective Indices. Each of these Indices posted double digital percent increases, with only the exception being Noble’s Video Gaming Index (+5%), which slightly underperformed the broader market/S&P Index.  For the second quarter in a row, the best performing index was Noble’s Social Media Index, which increased by 34% in 2Q 2023, followed by Noble’s Ad Tech Index (+24%), MarTech Index (+18%), Digital Media Index (+16%), and Video Gaming Index (+5%). 

Meta Powers the Social Media Index Higher

We attribute the strength of the Social Media Index to its largest constituent, Meta Platforms, whose shares increased by 35% in the second quarter. We noted last quarter that Meta appeared to be returning to its roots and focusing on profitability, rather than its nascent and riskier web3 initiatives.  That return to its core strengths has been greatly rewarded by investors. Shares of Meta were up 225% from its 52-week low of $88.09 per share in early November through the end of June. Shares are up another 8% since the start of the third quarter with the launch of Threads, Meta’s answer to Twitter. Over 100 million people signed up for Threads within the first five days of its rollout. Meta has not yet begun to monetize this opportunity, but it will clearly add to its growth in coming quarters. 

Ad Tech Stocks Embark on a Broad-Based Recovery Following a Difficult 2022

Noble’s AdTech Index increased by 24% in 2Q 2023, and this performance was very broad based, with 15 of the 24 stocks in the sector up, and a dozen of the stocks up by double digits.  Ad Tech stocks that performed best during the quarter include Applovin (APP, +63%), Magnite (MGNI, +47%), Tremor International (TRMR, +37%), Pubmatic (PUBM, +32%), Double Verify (DV, +29%), The Trade Desk (+27%), and Integral Ad Science (IAS, +26%).  Ad Tech stocks were the worst performing sector in our universe in 2022, with the index down 63% for the year in 2022. The strong performance in 2Q 2023 in many respects reflects a bounce back off multi-year lows for several stocks.  Year-to-date, one standout in particular is Integral Ad Science, whose shares were up 104% in the first half of 2023.The company continues to expand its product suite, scale its social media offerings (i.e., for TikTok) and is well positioned to continue to benefit from the shift from linear TV to connected TV (CTV). The company is benefiting from new partnerships with YouTube and Netflix and shares likely benefited during the quarter from anticipation of the company’s mid-June analyst day presentation. 

Noble’s MarTech Index was up 18%, with performance within the group also broad based. The Digital Media & Technology indices market-cap weighted performances in 2Q are illustrated in Figure #5 2Q Internet & Digital Technology Performance. Thirteen of the 20 stocks in the Index were up in the quarter. MarTech stocks that performed best during the quarter include Cardlytics (CDLX, +86%), Shopify (SHOP, +35%), Live Ramp (RAMP, +30%), Adobe (ADBE, +27%), and Hubspot (NUBS, +24%). One of the poor performers in the group was one of our closely followed stocks, Harte Hanks, which declined 42% in the latest quarter. The stock gave back nearly all of its 54% gains in the prior year. The weakness was due to a disappointing quarterly revenue outlook as the company indicated that it is seeing economic headwinds and more difficult second half comparables. Notably, the company has significant levers to maintain much of its favorable cash flow outlook and is well positioned for growth as those headwinds diminish. We believe that downside risk in the HHS shares appear limited and view the shares as among our favorite rebound plays. Overall, MarTech stocks were victims of their own success: the group traded at double digit revenue multiples in 2021, but the sector’s revenue multiples were more than halved in 2022. The group currently trades at 5.9x 2023E revenues, up from 4.1x 2023E revenues at the end of the first quarter, and 3.5x 2023E revenues at the start of the year. Current trading multiples are illustrated in Figure #7 MarTech Comparables.

Finally, the Digital Media Index was up 16% in 2Q 2023, and here again, the performance was broad based with 8 of the 12 stocks in the Index posting gains.  Digital Media stocks that performed best during the quarter include Fubo TV (FUBO, +72%), Travelzoo (TZOO, +31%), Netflix (NFLX, +28%), Interactive Corp (IAC, +22%), and Spotify (SPOT, +20%).  Year-to-date, the two best performing Digital Media stocks are Spotfiy (+103% YTD), which has shifted its priority to running a profitable company and took additional steps in 2Q to achieve it, for instance, by consolidating and streamlining several of its podcast company acquisitions from recent years. The second best performing Digital Media stock through the first half of the year was Travelzoo (TZOO), whose shares were up 77% in the first half of the year. The company continues to benefit from pent up demand that helped a surge in travel as the pandemic ebbed. Lodging and domestic travel demand rebounded first, but Travelzoo appears to be benefiting from cruises and international travel, where pent up demand took longer to recover. Management indicated that travel related advertising may increase as economic headwinds adversely affect hotel and air travel occupancy, forcing these travel businesses to offer discounts. We rate the TZOO shares as Outperform. 

Figure #5 2Q Internet & Digital Technology Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #6 AdTech Comparables 

Source: Company filings & Eikon

Figure #7 MarTech Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

Traditional Media

Traditional media stocks largely underperformed the general market over the LTM, the Radio sector was the hardest hit. As Figure #8 LTM Traditional Media Performance illustrates, the Noble Radio Index decreased 37.7% over the LTM, compared with the general market increasing 17.6%, as measured by the S&P 500 over the same period. The Television Index was down 14.8% and the Publishing index outperformed the general market, increasing 28.4% over the LTM. Notably, there were company stock performance disparities within each sector, highlighted later in this report. Given the indices are market cap weighted, larger market capitalized companies skewed the indices’ performance.

The traditional media industry is still finding its footing in the difficult economic environment, given the indices performance in Q2. While the Newspaper and Radio indices performed better in Q2 than Q1, the TV Index did not. The general market, as measured by the S&P 500, increased 8.3% over the last quarter and outperformed all but one traditional media sector. The Newspaper Index, which increased 8.5% over the same period narrowly outperformed the general market. The TV Index was the hardest hit traditional media sector and decreased -11.1%. While the Radio index underperformed the market in Q2, it improved upon a difficult Q1 and increased 3.1%, as illustrated in Figure #9 Q2 Traditional media performance.

Figure #8 LTM Traditional Media Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #9 Q2 Traditional Stock Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Broadcast Television

Are ad trends really improving? 

The TV Index underperformed the general market in the second quarter. While none of the stocks in the TV Index increased in the second quarter, many performed better than the market cap weighted return of -11.1%. Fox Corporation (FOXA; down 0.1%), E.W Scripps (SSP; down 2.8%), Nexstar (NXST; down 3.5%) and Gray Television (GTN; down 9.6%) were among the best performing stocks in the hard-hit TV index. The stocks hit the hardest in Q2 were Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI; down 19.5%) and Entravision (EVC; down 27.4%). Given the recent turmoil in TV stock performances we view the depressed prices as a potential opportunity given the prospect of an advertising recovery over the next few quarters.

While there have been some recent reports indicating that television advertising is improving, possibly related to increased political advertising and Auto advertising in the third quarter, we remain skeptical that the improvement is sustainable given the prospect of a weakening economy. Nonetheless, the TV stocks appear cheap. One of our favorites in the index is Entravision (EVC) which is among the industry leaders in revenue growth as illustrated in Figure #10 TV Q1 YoY Revenue Growth. While the EVC shares had a poor performance in Q2, down 27.4%, the shares had increased 26% in Q1. Entravision’s revenue growth is the product of a robust digital business that comprises approximately 80% of total revenue. We believe that the recent under performance is related to Meta’s (Facebook’s) announcement that it plans to implement efficiencies, implying that it may take margin away from some of its advertising agencies, like Entravision, which represents Facebook in Latin America. In our view, Entravision is in a strong position to push back on that prospect given its favorable business relationship with the company. Given the influx of lower margin digital revenues, Entravision’s EBITDA margin is much lower than industry peers, illustrated in Figure #11 TV Industry Q1 EBITDA Margin. But, importantly, the company has one of the better revenue and cash flow growth profiles. 

Figure #12 TV Company Comparablesillustrates the trading levels of the companies in the index. Some of our favorites Entravision (EVC) and E.W Scripps (SSP) trade at multiples well below the industry peer group highs. While E.W Scripps had modest year over year revenue decline, we believe it will benefit from favorable Retransmission revenue, strong Political advertising and improved margins in 2024. Given the SSP shares low float, the shares tend to underperform when industry is out of favor and outperform when the industry is back in favor. As for Entravision, we view the company’s digital transformation favorably and, notably, the shares are trading at a modest 3.9 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 Adj. EBITDA estimate. In our view, there appearas to be limited downside risk. The EVC shares and SSP shares, in our view, both offer a favorable risk reward relationship. 

Figure #10 TV Q1 YoY Revenue Growth 

Source: Company filings 

Figure #11 TV Industry Q1 EBITDA Margin

Source: Company filings & Eikon

Figure #12 TV Company Comparables 

Source: Noble Estimates & Eikon

Broadcast Radio

While the Radio Index underperformed the S&P 500 in Q2, it was an improvement from a difficult Q1. Notably, there were a few strong performances in the market cap weighted index. Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI, up 24.4%) , Cumulus Media (CMLS, up 11.1%) and Townsquare (TSQ, up 48.9%) all strongly outperformed the S&P 500 in Q2. The largest stocks in the group did not perform well in the quarter skewing the index lower, Audacy (AUD, up 2.6%) and iHeart Media (IHRT, down 6.7%). The second quarter stock performances were a mixed bag and largely did not reflect the first quarter operating results. As Figure #13 Radio Q1 YoY Revenue Growth illustrates, most companies had modest revenue growth. The larger Radio companies that rely more on National advertising had the greatest declines of YoY revenue. With CMLS being the exception, the larger Radio companies underperformed relative to Radio companies with a stronger digital and highly localized presence. Figure #14 Radio Industry Q1 EBITDA Margin Margins illustrate that the margins for the industry remain relatively healthy.

Some of our favorite Radio stocks have strong digital businesses and highly localized footprints, which provides some shelter from weakness in national advertising. Those stocks included Townsquare, Beasley Broadcast Group, Salem Media (SALM; down 12.1%) and Saga Communications (SGA, down 3.9%). While the shares of Saga Communications (SGA) were down 3.9%, the performance did not reflect its favorable first quarter operating results. Importantly, Saga grew revenues a modest 1.3% and had an above average Q1 EBITDA margin of 9.6%. Saga has a highly localized footprint, as approximately 90% of revenues come from local sources. Furthermore, the company has been placing more importance on growing a profitable digital business in recent years. While Saga’s Digital business is early in its development, management is focused on growing digital revenues from 7.5% of total revenue in Q1 to 20% of total revenue over the next couple years. Additionally, we believe the company is likely to maintain a strong cash position given the economic uncertainty.

We view Townsquare Media (TSQ), Salem Media (SALM), Beasley Broadcast (BBGI) and Saga Communications (SGA) as among our favorites in the industry given the diverse revenue streams and localized footprints. While these companies are not immune to the economic headwinds, we believe that its Digital businesses and local footprints should offer some ballast to its more sensitive Radio business. Beasley’s recent digital revenue growth has been robust, digital revenue was 17% of total revenue in Q1 and is expected to reach 20% to 30% of total revenue for full year 2023. In the case of Salem, 30% of its revenues are from reliable block programming.

We believe that Radio advertising pacings likely will be problematic in the second half given the economic headwinds. Unlike Television, the industry does not benefit as much from Political advertising. As such, we expect that advertising pacings likely will be lower in Q3 than the Q2 results. It is likely that many radio companies, especially those with higher debt leverage, will implement cost cutting measures. With many of the radio companies already relatively lean from the Pandemic, it is likely that such measures will be difficult.

As Figure #15 Radio Company Comparables illustrates, the shares of Townsquare and Saga are among the cheapest in the industry, trading below peer group averages. Notably, Townsquare implemented a hefty dividend in Q1, providing the unique opportunity to get a return of capital while waiting for a turn toward more favorable fundamentals. As such, the shares of TSQ tops our list of favorites. We also view the shares of Saga as among our favorites. The company is early in its transition toward digital and has a lot of headroom for enhanced revenue growth. 

Figure #13 Radio Q1 YoY Revenue Growth

Source: Company filings

Figure #14 Radio Industry Q1 EBITDA Margin

Source: Company filings & Eikon

Figure #15 Radio Company Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

Publishing

The Publishing industry is no exception to the advertising weakness that is impacting the broader Media landscape. As such, revenues are likely to continue to decline, despite an already weak performance in the first quarter of the year. Figure #16 Publishing Q1 YoY Revenue Growth illustrates the predominantly negative trends in the industry in the most recently reported quarter. The advertising challenges are hitting the traditional Print side of the publishing business hardest. For example, Lee Enterprises (LEE), one of our favorites in the industry, reported a 10% Print advertising revenue decline for the quarter ended March 31st, while Digital advertising grew a modest 2%. The company’s adj. EBITDA generation fell 15% compared with a more moderate 2% drop in total company revenues. 

Not surprisingly, the dampened industry revenue resulted in lower industry cash flow generation with EBITDA margins averaging in the 10% range, as illustrated in Figure #17 Publishing Industry Q1 EBITDA Margins. Yet despite the constraints on cash flow generation on Lee and the other Publishers, we believe the companies have the ability to cut costs to help offset the pressure on cash flow generation. In particular, companies could cut costs in their Print manufacturing and distribution operations, reducing overhead in the same business segments where revenues are expected to lag. Publishing companies have a playbook on cutting legacy print costs and have the ability to maintain cash flow. However, cost cuts can take time to go into full effect, which could result in poor cash flow performance over the next quarter or so.

In spite of the nearer term economic headwinds impacting the operating performance of the industry, we believe that the industry is near an inflection point towards revenue growth. This dynamic is related to the degree of the recovery in its digital media businesses, a key driver to the industry’s overall revenue performance. While there are secular challenges to the industry’s print business, digital revenues account for an increasing portion of total revenues. For companies like Lee Enterprises, digital accounts for over 38% of total revenues in the most recent quarter. In our view, publishing companies will be a player in the advertising recovery as economic prospects improve. Furthermore, we believe that stock valuations are compelling. 

Figure #18 Publishing Company Comparables illustrates the Publishing companies trading levels. Notably, the New York Times (NYT) trades well above the levels of the rest of its peers. In comparison, Lee and Gannett appear to be compelling. However, both Lee and Gannett are highly levered. Yet, in our view, Lee’s debt profile has several favorable characteristics, such as a fixed 9% annual rate, no fixed principal payments, no performance covenants and a 25 year maturity. Given that the LEE shares trade near 5.3 times enterprise value to our 2024 adj. EBITDA forecast, we believe the shares offer limited downside risk. With a favorable Digital transformation of the business well underway, we believe the LEE shares could close the valuation gap with some of its higher trading peers. As such, the LEE shares represent one of our favorites in the industry, especially as the economic downturn bottoms out and the prospect for a recovery begins to come to the forefront. As such, the LEE shares are among our favorite recovery plays.  

Figure #16 Publishing Q1 YoY Revenue Growth

Source: Company filings & Eikon

Figure #17 Publishing Industry Q1 EBITDA Margins

Source: Company filings & Eikon

Figure # 18 Publishing Company Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

The following companies are highlighted in this report. Click on the links for additional information and disclosures. 

Beasley Broadcasting

Cumulus Media

E.W. Scripps

Gray Television

Harte Hanks

Lee Enterprises

Salem Media Group

Townsquare Media

Travelzoo

Saga Communications

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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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Release – GameSquare Holdings Reports Standalone First Quarter 2023 Results for GameSquare Esports and Provides First Quarter Pro-Forma Income Statement

Research News and Market Data on GAME

05/18/2023

Record pipeline and recent contract wins expected to accelerate revenue growth in second half of 2023

Merger integration underway with $8 million of annualized cost savings expected in 2023

Company initiates 2023 guidance reflecting pro-forma sales of $75 to $80 million, and annual gross margins of 30% – 35%

TORONTO, ON / ACCESSWIRE / May 18, 2023 / GameSquare Holdings, Inc. (“GameSquare“, or the “Company“) (NASDAQ:GAME)(TSXV:GAME) announced that GameSquare Esports, Inc. has filed its standalone financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2023. As a result of the April 11, 2023 merger of GameSquare Esports and Engine Gaming and Media, Inc. (“Engine Gaming”), GameSquare provided a pro-forma income statement for the 2023 first quarter. The Company expects to file its second quarter 2023 consolidated financial statements for the combined entity, in August of 2023. The Company also provided 2023 guidance as a consolidated company.

“With the merger now behind us, our business momentum is accelerating, driven by a record pipeline, increasing ad spend, and the benefits of the merger. In addition, we believe advertising partners are already recognizing the value of our combined company’s assets. We recently have signed several significant brand deals across numerous verticals, including healthcare, automotive, and CPG, with average expected contract values north of seven figures. We believe that our record pipeline and recent wins indicate that global brands see the value of GameSquare’s leading end-to-end media platform and our success helping companies connect with gaming and youth audiences. As a result of the merger, GameSquare now serves approximately 350 brands, 1,500 creators, and has an aggregate audience reach over 500 million,” said Justin Kenna, CEO of GameSquare.

“Since our inception in late 2020, we have invested heavily in our business to build industry leading capabilities, create new and innovative revenue opportunities, complete a transformational merger, and assemble a team of experienced, motivated, and passionate leaders, talent, and influencers. With a solid foundation, we are focused on successfully integrating the merger, scaling our business, and pursuing a path to profitability. As we look forward, we believe pro-forma annual sales of the combined company in 2023 will be between $75 and $80 million. In addition, we have identified approximately $8 million of annualized cost savings and other opportunities to streamline and optimize the combined company. We expect annual gross margin in 2023 will range between 30% and 35%. As a result, we believe we will see significant improving trends towards profitability starting in the second half of 2023,” continued Mr. Kenna.

“I am encouraged by the growing momentum underway, as we focus over the near-term on integrating the merger, growing sales, and accelerating our path to profitability. I am excited by the direction we are headed, and I look forward to updating you on the progress we are making as we convert our growing pipeline into profitable sales,” concluded Mr. Kenna.

First Quarter 2023 GameSquare Esports Standalone Highlights (Comparisons are to Prior Year Period)

  • Revenue of $5,050,713, compared to $5,040,074
  • Gross margin increased to 40.2%, compared to 32.6%
  • Net loss of $4,258,273, compared to a net loss of $3,993,629
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of $2,255,835, compared to a loss of $2,742,172

First Quarter 2023 Pro-Forma Highlights

  • Revenue of $13,843,347, compared to $12,897,929 in the prior year period
  • Gross margin of $4,267,983 or 30.8% in Q1 23
  • Net loss of $12,150,604 in Q1 23
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of $5,045,947, compared to loss of $7,333,281 in the prior year period

Conference Call Details

Justin Kenna, CEO, Lou Schwartz, President, Paul Bozoki, former CFO of GameSquare Esports, and Mike Munoz CFO of GameSquare Holdings, are scheduled to host a conference call with the investment community. Analysts and interested investors can join the call via the details below:

Date: Thursday, May 18, 2023
Time: 5:00 pm ET
Webcast: http://services.choruscall.ca/links/gamesquare2023q1.html

Media and Investor Relations

Andrew Berger
Phone: (216) 464-6400
Email: IR@gamesquare.com

About GameSquare Holdings, Inc.

GameSquare Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:GAME | TSXV:GAME) is a vertically integrated, digital media, entertainment and technology company that connects global brands with gaming and youth culture audiences. GameSquare’s end-to-end platform includes GCN, a digital media company focused on gaming and esports audiences, Cut+Sew (Zoned), a gaming and lifestyle marketing agency, USA, Code Red Esports Ltd., a UK based esports talent agency, Complexity Gaming, a leading esports organization, Fourth Frame Studios, a creative production studio, Mission Supply, a merchandise and consumer products business, Frankly Media, programmatic advertising, Stream Hatchet, live streaming analytics, and Sideqik a social influencer marketing platform. www.gamesquare.com

Forward-Looking Information

This news release contains “forward-looking information” and “forward-looking statements” (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of the applicable securities legislation. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements and are based on expectations, estimates and projections as at the date of this news release. Any statement that involves discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions, future events or performance (often but not always using phrases such as “expects”, or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, “plans”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “forecasts”, “estimates”, “believes” or “intends” or variations of such words and phrases or stating that certain actions, events or results “may” or “could”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken to occur or be achieved) are not statements of historical fact and may be forward-looking statements. In this news release, forward-looking statements relate, among other things, to: the Company’s future performance and revenue; continued growth and profitability; the Company’s ability to execute its business plan; and the proposed use of net proceeds of the Offering. These forward-looking statements are provided only to provide information currently available to us and are not intended to serve as and must not be relied on by any investor as a guarantee, assurance or definitive statement of fact or probability. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions which include, but are not limited to: the Company being able to grow its business and being able to execute on its business plan, the Company being able to complete and successfully integrate acquisitions, the Company being able to recognize and capitalize on opportunities and the Company continuing to attract qualified personnel to supports its development requirements. These assumptions, while considered reasonable, are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors which may cause the actual results and future events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: the Company’s ability to achieve its objectives, the Company successfully executing its growth strategy, the ability of the Company to obtain future financings or complete offerings on acceptable terms, failure to leverage the Company’s portfolio across entertainment and media platforms, dependence on the Company’s key personnel and general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties including impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and any variants. These risk factors are not intended to represent a complete list of the factors that could affect the Company which are discussed in the Company’s most recent MD&A. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements and information contained in this news release. GameSquare assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements of beliefs, opinions, projections, or other factors, should they change, except as required by law.

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

SOURCE: GameSquare Holdings, Inc.


View source version on accesswire.com:
https://www.accesswire.com/755906/GameSquare-Holdings-Reports-Standalone-First-Quarter-2023-Results-for-GameSquare-Esports-and-Provides-First-Quarter-Pro-Forma-Income-Statement

Release – QuoteMedia Announces 11% Revenue Growth for Q1 2023

Research News and Market Data on QMCI

May 12, 2023 2:53 PM

PHOENIX, May 12, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — QuoteMedia, Inc. (OTCQB: QMCI), a leading provider of market data and financial applications, announced financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023.

QuoteMedia provides banks, brokerage firms, private equity firms, financial planners and sophisticated investors with a more economical, higher quality alternative source of stock market data and related research information. We compete with several larger legacy organizations and a modest community of other smaller companies.  QuoteMedia provides comprehensive market data services, including streaming data feeds, on-demand request-based data (XML/JSON), web content solutions (financial content for website integration) and applications such as Quotestream Professional desktop and mobile.

Highlights for Q1 2023 include the following:

  • Quarterly revenue increased by 11% to $4,750,048 in Q1 2023 from $4,263,796 in 2022, an increase of $486,252.
  • On an FX-neutral basis, revenue growth for Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022 was 14% (1) .
  • Quarter-over-quarter revenue increased 4% when comparing Q1 2023 to Q4 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2023 was $829,585 compared to $680,424 in Q1 2022, an improvement of $149,161 (22%) (1) .

“2022 was another great year for QuoteMedia, and as anticipated, that momentum is carrying forward into 2023,” said Robert J. Thompson, Chairman of the Board. “We expect improved revenue growth for the remainder of the year, and record profitability for fiscal 2023. These are truly exciting times for QuoteMedia, as we continue to expand our product lines, develop new partnerships, increase our market share and broaden our presence in the financial data industry. We are very pleased with our results to date; and anticipate extending QuoteMedia’s growth and profitability into the foreseeable future.”

QuoteMedia will host a conference call Monday, May 15, 2023 at 2:00 PM Eastern Time to discuss the Q1 2023 financial results and provide a business update.

Conference Call Details:

Date: May 15, 2023

Time: 2:00 PM Eastern

Dial-in number: 800-245-3047

Conference ID: QUOTEMEDIA

An audio rebroadcast of the call will be available later at: www.quotemedia.com

About QuoteMedia

QuoteMedia is a leading software developer and cloud-based syndicator of financial market information and streaming financial data solutions to media, corporations, online brokerages, and financial services companies. The Company licenses interactive stock research tools such as streaming real-time quotes, market research, news, charting, option chains, filings, corporate financials, insider reports, market indices, portfolio management systems, and data feeds. QuoteMedia provides industry leading market data solutions and financial services for companies such as the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, TMX Group (TSX Stock Exchange), Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE), London Stock Exchange Group, FIS, U.S. Bank, Bank of Montreal (BMO), Broadridge Financial Systems, JPMorgan Chase, Scotiabank, CI Financial, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Hilltop Securities,  Avantax, Stockhouse, Zacks Investment Research, General Electric, Boeing, Bombardier, Telus International, Business Wire, PR Newswire, The Goldman Sachs Group, Regal Securities, ChoiceTrade, Cetera Financial Group, Dynamic Trend, Inc., Credential Qtrade Securities, CNW Group, iA Private Wealth, Ally Invest, Inc., Suncor, Leede Jones Gable, Firstrade Securities, Charles Schwab, First Financial, Equisolve, Stock-Trak, Mergent, Cision and others. Quotestream®, QMod™ and Quotestream Connect™ are trademarks of QuoteMedia. For more information, please visit www.quotemedia.com .

Statements about QuoteMedia’s future expectations, including future revenue, earnings, and transactions, as well as all other statements in this press release other than historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. QuoteMedia intends that such forward-looking statements be subject to the safe harbors created thereby. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that are identified from time to time in the Company’s SEC reports and filings and are subject to change at any time. QuoteMedia’s actual results and other corporate developments could differ materially from that which has been anticipated in such statements.

Below are the specific forward-looking statements included in this press release:

  • We expect improved revenue growth for the remainder of the year, and record profitability for fiscal 2023.

QuoteMedia Investor Relations

Brendan Hopkins
Email: investors@quotemedia.com
Call: (407) 645-5295

Note 1 on Non-GAAP Financial Measures

We believe that Adjusted EBITDA, as a non-GAAP pro forma financial measure, provides meaningful information to investors in terms of enhancing their understanding of our operating performance and results, as it allows investors to more easily compare our financial performance on a consistent basis compared to the prior year periods. This non-GAAP financial measure also corresponds with the way we expect investment analysts to evaluate and compare our results. Any non-GAAP pro forma financial measures should be considered only as supplements to, and not as substitutes for or in isolation from, or superior to, our other measures of financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP, such as net income attributable to QuoteMedia, Inc.

We define and calculate Adjusted EBITDA as net income attributable to QuoteMedia, Inc., plus: 1) depreciation and amortization, 2) stock compensation expense, 3) interest expense, 4) foreign exchange loss (or minus a foreign exchange gain), and 5) income tax expense. We disclose Adjusted EBITDA because we believe it is a useful metric by which to compare the performance of our business from period to period. We understand that measures similar to Adjusted EBITDA are broadly used by analysts, rating agencies, investors and financial institutions in assessing our performance. Accordingly, we believe that the presentation of Adjusted EBITDA provides useful information to investors. The table below provides a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income attributable to QuoteMedia, Inc., the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.

QuoteMedia, Inc. Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income:

Three-months ended March 31,20232022
Net income$113,290$149,041
Depreciation and amortization627,987487,095
Stock-based compensation78,12559,864
Interest expense1,4521,224
Foreign exchange loss (gain)8,001(17,590)
Income tax expense730790
Adjusted EBITDA$829,585$680,424


In addition to the non-GAAP measures discussed above, we also analyze certain measures, including net revenues and operating expenses, on an FX-neutral basis to better measure the comparability of operating results between periods. Management believes that changes in foreign currency exchange rates are not indicative of the company’s operations and evaluating growth in net revenues and operating expenses on an FX-neutral basis provides an additional meaningful and comparable assessment of these measures to both management and investors. FX-neutral results are calculated by translating the current period’s local currency results with the prior period’s exchange rate. FX-neutral growth rates are calculated by comparing the current period’s FX-neutral results by the prior period’s results.

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