Tag: Interest RAtes

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Cools Expectations for Imminent Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday following its January policy meeting, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 5.25-5.50%, the highest level since 2007. The decision came as expected, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on market bets of rate cuts potentially starting as soon as March.

In the post-meeting statement, the Fed removed language about needing additional policy tightening, signaling a likely prolonged pause in rate hikes as it assesses the impact of its aggressive actions over the past year. However, officials emphasized they do not foresee cuts on the horizon until inflation shows “greater progress” moving back to the 2% goal sustainably.

Powell Caution on Rate Cuts

During his press conference, Powell aimed to temper expectations that rate cuts could begin in just a couple months. He stated March is “probably not the most likely case” for the start of easing, rather the “base case” is the Fed holds rates steady for an extended period to confirm inflation is solidly on a downward trajectory.

Markets have been pricing in rate cuts in 2024 based on recent data showing inflation cooling from 40-year highs last year. But the Fed wants to avoid undoing its progress prematurely. Powell said the central bank would need more consistent evidence on inflation, not just a few months of decent data.

Still Room for Soft Landing

The tone indicates the Fed believes there is room for a soft landing where inflation declines closer to target without triggering a recession. Powell cited solid economic growth, a strong job market near 50-year low unemployment, and six straight months of easing price pressures.

While risks remain, the Fed views risks to its dual mandate as balancing out rather than tilted to the downside. As long as the labor market and consumer spending hold up, a hard landing with severe growth contraction may be avoided.

Markets Catching Up to Fed’s Thinking

Markets initially expected interest rate cuts to start in early 2024 after the Fed’s blistering pace of hikes over the past year. But officials have been consistent that they need to keep policy restrictive for some time to ensure inflation’s retreat is lasting.

After the latest guidance reiterating this view, traders adjusted expectations for the timing of cuts. Futures now show around a coin flip chance of a small 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting, compared to up to a 70% chance priced in earlier.

Overall the Fed is making clear that investors are too optimistic on the imminence of policy easing. The bar to cutting rates remains high while the economy expands moderately and inflation readings continue improving.

Normalizing Policy Ahead

Looking beyond immediate rate moves, the Fed is focused on plotting a course back to more normal policy over time. This likely entails holding rates around the current elevated range for much of 2024 to solidify inflation’s descent.

Then later this year or early 2025, the beginnings of rate cuts could materialize if justified by the data. The dot plot forecast shows Fed officials pencil in taking rates down to 4.5-4.75% by year’s end.

But Powell was adamant that lowering rates is not yet on the table. The Fed will need a lengthy period of inflation at or very close to its 2% goal before definitively shifting to an easing cycle.

In the meantime, officials are content to pause after their historic tightening campaign while still keeping rates restrictive enough to maintain control over prices. As Powell made clear, investors anxiously awaiting rate cuts will likely need to keep waiting a bit longer.

Homebuyers Get a Break as Mortgage Rates Hit 7-Month Low

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level in seven months this past week, providing a glimmer of hope for homebuyers who have been sidelined by high borrowing costs.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.60% according to Freddie Mac, down from a recent peak of nearly 8% in October 2023. While still high historically, the retreat back below 7% could draw more prospective homebuyers back into the market.

The dip in rates comes as the housing market is showing early signs of a potential turnaround after a dismal 2023. Home sales plunged nearly 18% last year as surging mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices made purchases unaffordable for many.

But January has seen some positive signals emerge. More homes are coming up for sale as sellers who waited out 2023 finally list their properties. Real estate brokerage Redfin reported a 9% annual increase in inventory in January, the first year-over-year gain since 2019.

At the same time, buyer demand is also perking back up with the improvement in affordability. Mortgage applications jumped 10% last week compared to the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. While purchase apps remain below year-ago levels, the turnaround suggests buyers are returning.

“If rates continue to ease, MBA is cautiously optimistic that home purchases will pick up in the coming months,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President of economic and industry forecasting.

The increase in supply and demand has some experts predicting the market may be primed for a rebound in the spring home shopping season. But whether the inventory can satisfy purchaser interest remains uncertain.

“As purchase demand continues to thaw, it will put more pressure on already depleted inventory for sale,” noted Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater.

Homebuilders have pulled back sharply on new construction as sales slowed over the past year. And many current owners are still hesitant to sell with mortgage rates on their existing homes likely much lower than what they could get today. That leaves the total number of homes available for sale still historically lean.

Nonetheless, agents are reporting more bidding wars again for the limited inventory available in some markets. While not at the frenzied pace of 2022, competition for the right homes is heating up. Experts say interested buyers may want to start making offers now before the selection gets picked over.

“I’m advising house hunters to start making offers now because the market feels pretty balanced,” said Heather Mahmood-Corley, a Redfin agent. “With activity picking up, I think prices will rise and bidding wars will become more common.”

The driver of the downturn in rates since late last year has been an overall cooling of inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage above 7% for the first time in over 20 years with its aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation.

But evidence is mounting that the Fed’s policy actions are having the desired effect. Consumer price increases have steadily moderated from 40-year highs last summer. The slower inflation has allowed the central bank to reduce the size of its rate hikes.

Markets now expect the Fed to lift its benchmark rate 0.25 percentage points at its next meeting, a smaller move compared to the 0.50 and 0.75 point hikes seen last year. The slower pace of increases has taken pressure off mortgage rates.

However, the Fed reiterated it plans to keep rates elevated for some time to ensure inflation continues easing. Most experts do not foresee the central bank cutting interest rates until 2024 at the earliest. That means mortgage rates likely won’t fall back to the ultra-low levels seen during the pandemic for years.

But for homebuyers who can manage the higher rates, the recent pullback provides some savings on monthly payments. On a $300,000 loan, the current average 30-year rate would mean about $140 less in the monthly mortgage bill versus the fall peak above 8%.

While housing affordability remains strained by historical standards, some buyers are jumping in now before rates potentially move higher again. People relocating or needing more space are finding ways to cope with the increased costs.

With some forecasts calling for home prices to edge lower in 2024, this year could provide an opportunity for buyers to get in after sitting out 2023’s rate surge. It may be a narrow window however. If demand accelerates faster than supply, the competition and price gains could return quickly.

Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since September 2022 as Labor Market Defies Fed

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. job market continues to show resilience despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool economic growth, according to new data released Thursday. Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 13 fell to 187,000, the lowest level since September of last year.

The decline in claims offers the latest evidence that employers remain reluctant to lay off workers even as the Fed raises interest rates to curb demand. The total marked a 16,000 drop from the previous week and came in well below economist forecasts of 208,000.

“Employers may be adding fewer workers monthly, but they are holding onto the ones they have and paying higher wages given the competitive labor market,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

The surprising strength comes even as the Fed has lifted its benchmark interest rate seven times in 2023 from near zero to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The goal is to dampen demand across the economy, particularly the red-hot job market, in order to bring down uncomfortably high inflation.

In addition to the drop in claims, continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 6 also declined by 26,000 to 1.806 million. That figure runs a week behind the headline number and likewise came in below economist estimates.

The resilience in the labor market comes even as broader economic activity shows signs of cooling. In its latest Beige Book report, the Fed noted that the economy has seen “little or no change” since late November.

Housing markets are a key area feeling the pinch from higher borrowing costs. The Fed summary showed residential real estate activity constrained by rising mortgage rates. Still, there were some green shoots in Thursday’s housing starts data.

Building permits, a leading indicator of future home construction, rose 1.9% in December to 1.495 million. That exceeded economist forecasts of 1.48 million permits. Actual housing starts declined 4.3% to 1.46 million, but still topped estimates calling for 1.43 million.

“The prospects of future easing from the Fed were raising hopes that the pace could accelerate,” the original article noted about housing.

Outside of housing, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region contracted again in January, though at a slightly slower pace. The Philly Fed’s index rose to -10.6 this month from -12.8 in December. Readings below zero indicate shrinking activity.

The survey’s gauge of employment at factories in the region also remained negative, though it improved to -1.8 from -7.4 in December. Overall, the Philly Fed report showed declining orders, longer delivery times, and falling inventories.

On inflation, the prices paid index within the survey fell to 43.4 from 51.8 last month. That indicates some easing of cost pressures for manufacturers in the region. The prices received or charged index also ticked lower.

The inflation figures align with the Fed’s latest nationwide look at the economy. The central bank’s Beige Book noted signs of slowing wage growth and easing price pressures. That could give the Fed cover to dial back the pace of interest rate hikes at upcoming meetings this year.

But policymakers also reiterated they plan to keep rates elevated for some time to ensure inflation continues cooling toward the 2% target. Markets still expect the Fed to lift rates again at both its February and March gatherings, albeit by smaller increments of 25 basis points.

With inflation showing increasing signs of moderating from four-decade highs, the focus turns to how much the Fed’s actions will slow economic growth. Thursday’s report on jobless claims hints the labor market remains on solid ground for now.

Employers added over 200,000 jobs per month on average in 2023, well above the pace needed to keep up with population growth. And the unemployment rate ended the year at 3.5%, matching a 50-year low first hit in September.

While job gains are expected to downshift in 2024, the claims report suggests employers are not rushing to cut staff yet. How long the resilience lasts as interest rates remain elevated and growth slows remains to be seen.

For the Fed, it will be a delicate balance between cooling the economy just enough to rein in inflation, without causing substantial job losses or triggering a recession. How well they thread that needle will be closely watched in 2024.

Treasury Yields Spike on Solid Retail Figures, Stocks Pull Back

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. stocks slumped on Wednesday as Treasury yields climbed following better-than-expected December retail sales. The data signals ongoing economic strength, prompting investors to temper hopes for an imminent Fed rate cut.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.47% to an over one-week low of 4,743, while the Dow shed 0.01% to hit a near one-month low of 37,357. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fared worst, sinking 0.79% to 14,826, its lowest level in a week.

Driving the declines was a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, which topped 4.1% today – its highest point so far in 2024. The benchmark yield has been rising steadily this year as the Fed maintains its hawkish tone. Higher yields particularly pressured rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, which fell 1.8% for its worst day in a month.

The catalyst behind rising yields was stronger-than-forecast December retail sales. Despite lingering inflation, sales rose 1.4% versus estimates of just 0.1%, buoyed by holiday discounts and robust auto demand. The robust spending highlights the continued resilience of the U.S. economy amidst Fed tightening.

This data substantially dampened investor hopes of the Fed cutting rates as soon as March. Before the report, markets were pricing in a 55% chance of a 25 basis point cut next month. But expectations sank to just 40% after the upbeat sales print.

Traders have been betting aggressively on rate cuts starting in Q2 2024, while the Fed has consistently pushed back on an imminent policy pivot. Chair Jerome Powell stated bluntly last week that “the time for moderating rate hikes may come as soon as the next meeting or meetings.”

“The market is recalibrating its expectations for rate cuts, but I don’t think that adjustment is completely over,” said Annex Wealth Management’s Brian Jacobsen. “A tug-of-war is playing out between what the Fed intends and what markets want.”

Further weighing on sentiment, the CBOE Volatility Index spiked to its highest level in over two months, reflecting anxiety around the Fed’s path. More Fedspeak is due this week from several officials and the release of the Beige Book economic snapshot. These could reinforce the Fed’s resolute inflation fight and keep downward pressure on stocks.

In company news, Tesla shares dropped 2.8% after the electric vehicle leader slashed Model Y prices in Germany by roughly 15%. This follows discounts in China last week as signs of softening demand grow. The price cuts hit Tesla’s stock as profit margins may come under pressure.

Major banks also dragged on markets after Morgan Stanley plunged 2% following earnings. The investment bank flagged weak trading activity and deal-making. Peer banks like Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo slid as a result.

On the upside, Boeing notched a 1.4% gain as it cleared a key milestone regarding 737 MAX inspections. This allows the aircraft to reenter service soon, providing a boost to the embattled plane maker.

But market breadth overall skewed firmly negative, with decliners swamping advancers by a 3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red, underscoring the broad risk-off sentiment.

With the Fed hitting the brakes on easy money, 2024 is shaping up to be a far cry from the bull market of 2021-2022. Bouts of volatility are likely as policy settles into a restrictive posture. For investors, focusing on quality companies with pricing power and adjusting rate hike expectations continue to be prudent moves this year.

Fed Rate Cut Timing in Focus as New Year Kicks Off

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

As 2024 begins, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve to see when it will pivot towards cutting interest rates from restrictive levels aimed at taming inflation. The Fed’s upcoming policy moves will have major implications for markets and the economy in the new year.

The central bank raised its benchmark federal funds rate sharply in 2023, lifting it from near zero to a range of 5.25-5.5% by December. But with inflation pressures now easing, focus has shifted to when the Fed will begin lowering rates once again.

Markets are betting on cuts starting as early as March, while most economists see cuts beginning around mid-2024. The Fed’s minutes from its December meeting, being released this week, may provide clues about how soon cuts could commence.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed rate cuts are not yet under discussion. But he noted rates will need to fall before inflation returns to the 2% target, to avoid tightening more than necessary.

Recent data gives the Fed room to trim rates sooner than later. Core PCE inflation rose just 1% annually in November, and has run under 2% over the past six months.

With inflation easing faster than expected while the Fed holds rates steady, policy is getting tighter by default. That raises risks of ‘over-tightening’ and causing an unneeded hit to jobs.

Starting to reduce rates by March could mitigate this risk, some analysts contend. But the Fed also wants to see clear evidence that underlying inflation pressures are abating as it pivots policy.

Upcoming jobs, consumer spending and inflation data will guide rate cut timing. The January employment report and December consumer inflation reading, out in the next few weeks, will be critical.

Markets Expect Aggressive Fed Easing

Rate cut expectations have surged since summer, when markets anticipated rates peaking above 5%. Now futures trading implies the Fed will slash rates by 1.5 percentage points by end-2024.

That’s far more easing than Fed officials projected in December. Their forecast was for rates to decline by only 0.75 point this year.

Such aggressive Fed easing would be welcomed by equity markets. Stocks notched healthy gains in 2023 largely due to improving inflation and expectations for falling interest rates.

Further Fed cuts could spur another rally, as lower rates boost the present value of future corporate earnings. That may help offset risks from still-high inflation, a slowing economy and ongoing geopolitical turmoil.

But the Fed resists moving too swiftly on rates. Quick, large cuts could unintentionally re-stoke inflation if done prematurely. And inflated rate cut hopes could set markets up for disappointment.

Navigating a ‘Soft Landing’ in 2024

The Fed’s overriding priority is to engineer a ‘soft landing’ – where inflation steadily falls without triggering a recession and large-scale job losses.

Achieving this will require skillful calibration of rate moves. Cutting too fast risks entrenching inflation and forcing even harsher tightening later. But moving too slowly could cause an unnecessary downturn.

With Treasury yields falling on rate cut hopes, the Fed also wants to avoid an ‘inverted’ yield curve where short-term yields exceed long-term rates. Prolonged inversions often precede recessions.

For now, policymakers are taking a wait-and-see approach on cuts while reiterating their commitment to containing inflation. But market expectations and incoming data will shape the timing of reductions in the new year.

Global factors add complexity to the Fed’s policy path. While domestic inflation is cooling, price pressures remain stubbornly high in Europe. And China’s reopening may worsen supply chain strains.

Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine also breeds uncertainty on geopolitics and commodity prices. A flare up could fan inflation and force central banks to tighten despite economic weakness.

With risks abounding at the start of 2024, investors will closely watch the Fed’s next moves. Patience is warranted, but the stage appears set for rate cuts to commence sometime in the next six months barring an unforeseen shock.

Has The Fed Hit a Turning Point?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After two years of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the Federal Reserve is on the cusp of a significant policy shift. This Wednesday’s meeting marks a turning point, with a pause on rate increases and a focus on what lies ahead. While the immediate decision is anticipated, the subtle nuances of the Fed’s statement, economic projections, and Chair Powell’s press conference hold the key to understanding the future trajectory of monetary policy.

A Pause in the Rate Hike Cycle:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is virtually certain to hold the benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision reflects the Fed’s recognition of the recent slowdown in inflation, as evidenced by Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report showing core inflation at a 4% annual rate. The aggressive rate hikes have had their intended effect, and the Fed is now in a position to assess the impact and determine the next course of action.

Shifting Narrative: From Hiking to Cutting?

While the pause is a significant development, the Fed’s communication will provide further insights into their future plans. Economists anticipate subtle changes in the post-meeting statement, such as dropping the reference to “additional policy firming” and focusing on achieving the 2% inflation target. These changes would signal a shift in the narrative from focusing on rate hikes to considering potential cuts in the future.

The closely watched dot plot, which reflects individual members’ expectations for future interest rates, will also be scrutinized. The removal of the previously indicated rate increase for this year is expected, but the market’s anticipation of rate cuts starting in May 2024 might be perceived as overly aggressive. Most economists believe the Fed will take a more cautious approach, with cuts likely to materialize in the second half of 2024 or later.

Economic Outlook and the Real Rate:

Alongside the policy decision, the Fed will update its projections for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. While significant changes are not anticipated, these projections will provide valuable information about the current state of the economy and the Fed’s expectations for the future.

The real rate, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, is also a key factor in the Fed’s deliberations. Currently, the real rate stands at 1.8%, significantly above the neutral rate of 0.5%. This high real rate is considered restrictive, meaning it is slowing down economic activity. Chair Powell’s comments will be closely watched for any hints about how the Fed might balance the need to control inflation with the potential for slowing economic growth.

Powell’s Press Conference: Clues for the Future:

The press conference following the meeting will be the most anticipated event of the week. Chair Powell’s remarks will be analyzed for any clues about the Fed’s future plans. While Powell is likely to remain cautious, his comments could provide valuable insights into the Fed’s thinking and their views on the economic outlook.

Markets are eagerly anticipating any indication of a dovish pivot, which could lead to a further surge in equity prices. However, Powell may also address concerns about the recent loosening of financial conditions, emphasizing the Fed’s commitment to achieving their inflation target. Striking a balance between these competing concerns will be a major challenge for Powell and the FOMC.

Looking Ahead: A Cautious Path Forward

The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting marks a significant turning point in their fight against inflation. While the immediate pause in rate hikes is expected, the future trajectory of monetary policy remains uncertain. The Fed will closely monitor the economic data and adjust their policy as needed. The coming months are likely to be characterized by careful consideration and cautious action as the Fed navigates the complex task of balancing inflation control with economic growth.

This article has highlighted the key details of the upcoming Fed meeting and its potential impact on the economy and financial markets. By understanding the nuances of the Fed’s communication and the challenges they face, we can gain a deeper understanding of the future of monetary policy and its implications for businesses, consumers, and investors alike.

Powell Pumps the Brakes on Rate Cut Hopes

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on mounting speculation that the central bank is nearing the end of its tightening campaign and will soon reverse course to cutting interest rates.

In a speech at Spelman College on Friday, Powell asserted “it would be premature” for investors to conclude the Fed’s policy stance is restrictive enough given lingering inflation pressures. He stated plainly that more rate hikes could still be on the table if appropriate.

His sobering comments follow the latest inflation data showing core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, ticked down slightly to 3.5% annually in October. Though marking a fourth consecutive month of slow improvement, Powell emphasized the number remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

“While the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2% objective,” he said.

Nonetheless, overeager investors have jumped the gun on declaring victory over inflation and penciling in imminent rate cuts. Billionaire Bill Ackman predicted this week that cuts could come as soon as Q1 2024.

But Powell asserted the full impact of the Fed’s blistering pace of rate hikes this year has likely not yet transmitted through the economy. Plus, he noted core PCE has averaged 2.5% over the past six months – still too high for comfort.

Key Takeaways for Investors

The Fed chair’s remarks make clear that policymakers see their inflation-taming mission as incomplete despite markets cheering each new downward tick. Here are the big implications for investors:

  • Rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. The Fed wants concrete evidence that inflation is reverting steadily to its 2% goal before it contemplates easing policy. Powell admission that more hikes could happen dispels investor hopes for a swift policy pivot.
  • Stocks may face renewed volatility. Exuberant bets on imminent rate cuts provided major tailwinds for this year’s risk asset rebound. With the Fed dampening that narrative, investors may recalibrate positions. Powell cautioned about the unusual uncertainty still permeating the economic outlook.
  • Recession risks linger in 2024. The full brunt of the Fed’s Super-Size rate hikes has yet to impact the real economy. Powell made clear policy will stay restrictive for some time to have its intended effect of slowing demand and consumer spending. That keeps recession risks on the radar, especially in the back half of next year.

Navigating the Volatility Ahead

With the Fed determined to remain the grinch raining on investor enthusiasms around pivots, next year promises more turbulence for markets. Savvy investors should:

Trim exposure to interest-rate sensitive assets: Risks remain heavily skewed towards more volatility as the Fed asserts its hawkish credibility. ratchet down exposure to bonds, utilities, real estate and other rate-vulnerable sectors.

Emphasize inflation hedges: The Fed’s clear-eyed focus on returning inflation to 2% means investors should still prioritize inflation-fighting assets like commodities, TIPS, floating-rate bank loans, and short-duration bonds. These provide buffers against rising prices.

Stay nimble amid cross-currents: Between lingering inflation and slowing growth, crosswinds for investors abound. Being opportunistic yet disciplined will be critical, as risk appetites could sour quickly depending on upcoming data and guidance from the Fed. Maintaining flexibility and even selective hedges allows investors to adeptly navigate the turbulence ahead under Powell’s resolute hawkish watch.

Fed Signals No Rate Cuts Coming Despite Recession Fears

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Despite growing fears of an impending recession, the Federal Reserve is showing no signs of pivoting towards interest rate cuts any time soon, according to minutes from the central bank’s early-November policy meeting.

The minutes underscored Fed officials’ steadfast commitment to taming inflation through restrictive monetary policy, even as markets widely expect rate cuts to begin in the first half of 2024.

“The fact is, the Committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell asserted bluntly in his post-meeting press conference.

The summary of discussions revealed Fed policymakers believe keeping rates elevated will be “critical” to hit their 2% inflation target over time. And it gave no indication that the group even considered the appropriate timing for eventually lowering rates from the current range of 5.25-5.50%, the highest since 2000.

Despite investors betting on cuts starting in May, the minutes signaled the Fed intends to stand firm and base upcoming policy moves solely on incoming data, rather than forecasts. Officials stressed the need for “persistently restrictive” policy to curb price increases.

Still, Fed leaders acknowledged they must remain nimble in response to shifting financial conditions or economic trajectories that could alter the monetary path.

Surging Treasury Yields Garner Attention

This balanced posture comes after the early-November gathering saw extensive debate around rapidly rising Treasury yields, as 10-year rates hit fresh 15-year highs over 4.3%.

The minutes linked this upward pressure on benchmark yields to several key drivers, including increased Treasury issuance to finance swelling federal deficits.

Analysts say the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes are also forcing up yields on government bonds. Meanwhile, any hints around the Fed’s own policy outlook can sway rate expectations.

Fed participants decided higher term premiums rooted in fundamental supply and demand forces do not necessarily warrant a response. However, the reaction in financial markets will require vigilant monitoring in case yield spikes impact the real economy.

Moderating Growth, Elevated Inflation Still Loom

Despite the tightening already underway, the minutes paint a picture of an economy still battling high inflation even as growth shows signs of slowing markedly.

Participants expect a significant deceleration from the third quarter’s 4.9% GDP growth pace. And they see rising risks of below-trend expansion looking ahead.

Nevertheless, on inflation, officials suggested hazards remain tilted to the upside. Price increases slowed to a still-high 7.7% annual clip in October per CPI data, but stickier components like rents and services have been slower to relent.

The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge has also moderated over recent months. But at 3.7% annually in September, it remains well above the rigid 2% target.

Considering lags in policy impacts, the minutes indicated Fed officials believe the cumulative effect of 375 basis points worth of interest rate hikes this year should help restore price stability over the medium term.

Markets Still Misaligned with Fed’s Outlook

Despite the Fed’s clear messaging, futures markets continue to forecast rate cuts commencing in the first half of 2023. Traders are betting on a recession forcing the Fed’s hand.

However, several Fed policymakers have recently pushed back on expectations for near-term policy pivots.

For now, the Fed seems inclined to stick to its guns, rather than bowing to market hopes or economic worries. With inflation still unacceptably high amid a strong jobs market, policymakers are staying the course on rate hikes for the foreseeable future, according to the latest minutes.

Stock Markets Rally Back: A Beacon of Hope Emerges

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After a tumultuous year marked by soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty, the stock markets are finally beginning to show signs of recovery. The recent surge in the Russell 2000, a small-cap index, is a particularly encouraging sign, indicating that investors are regaining confidence and seeking out growth opportunities. This positive momentum is fueled by several factors, including signs of inflation subsiding, the likelihood of no further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and renewed interest in small-cap companies.

Inflation Under Control

The primary driver of the market’s recent rally is the easing of inflationary pressures. After reaching a 40-year high in June, inflation has been steadily declining, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing a year-over-year increase of 6.2%. This moderation in inflation is a welcome relief for investors and consumers alike, as it reduces the burden on household budgets and businesses’ operating costs.

No More Rate Hikes on the Horizon

In response to the surge in inflation, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive monetary tightening campaign, raising interest rates at an unprecedented pace. These rate hikes were necessary to curb inflation but also had a dampening effect on economic growth and put downward pressure on stock prices. However, with inflation now on a downward trajectory, the Fed is expected to slow down its rate-hiking cycle. This prospect is positive for the stock market, as it reduces the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions and allows businesses and investors to plan accordingly.

Capital Flows Back to Small Caps

The recent rally in the Russell 2000 is a testament to the renewed interest in small-cap companies. These companies, often considered to be more sensitive to economic conditions than their larger counterparts, have been hit hard by the market volatility of the past year. However, as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook, they are turning their attention back to small caps, which offer the potential for higher growth and returns.

Light at the End of the Tunnel

The stock market’s recent rally is a promising sign that the worst may be over for investors. While there may still be challenges ahead, the easing of inflation, the prospect of no further rate hikes, and the renewed interest in small-cap companies suggest that there is light at the end of the tunnel. As investors regain confidence and seek out growth opportunities, the stock market is poised for a continued recovery.

Additional Factors Contributing to the Rally

In addition to the factors mentioned above, there are a few other developments that are contributing to the stock market’s recovery. These include:

  • Strong corporate earnings: Despite the economic slowdown, many companies have reported better-than-expected earnings in recent quarters. This suggests that businesses are able to navigate the current challenges and remain profitable.
  • Improved investor sentiment: Investor sentiment has improved in recent months, as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook and the prospects for corporate earnings.
  • Increased retail investor participation: Retail investors have been a major force in the stock market in recent years, and their continued participation is helping to support the rally.

The Road Ahead

While the stock market has shown signs of recovery, there are still some risks that investors should be aware of. These include:

  • The possibility of a recession: While the economy is slowing down, there is still a possibility that it could tip into a recession. This would have a negative impact on corporate earnings and stock prices.
  • Geopolitical tensions: The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty and could lead to market volatility.
  • Rising interest rates: Even if the Fed slows down its rate-hiking cycle, interest rates are still expected to be higher than they were before the pandemic. This could continue to put pressure on stock prices.

Despite these risks, the overall outlook for the stock market is positive. The easing of inflation, the prospect of no further rate hikes, and the renewed interest in small-cap companies are all positive signs that suggest the market is on a path to recovery. As investors regain confidence and seek out growth opportunities, the stock market is poised to continue its upward trajectory.

Stocks Surge as End of Fed Hikes Comes Into View

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

A buoyant optimism filled Wall Street on Thursday as investors interpreted the Fed’s latest decision to stand pat on rates as a sign the end of the hiking cycle may be near. The Nasdaq leapt 1.5% while the S&P 500 and Dow climbed nearly 1.25% each as traders priced in dwindling odds of additional tightening.

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed future moves would depend on the data, markets increasingly see one more increase at most, not the restrictive 5-5.25% peak projected earlier. The CME FedWatch tool shows only a 20% chance of a December hike, down from 46% before the Fed meeting.

The prospect of peak rates arriving sparked a “risk-on” mindset. Tech stocks which suffered during 2023’s relentless bumps upward powered Thursday’s rally. Apple rose over 3% ahead of its highly anticipated earnings report. The iPhone maker’s results will offer clues into consumer spending and China demand trends.

Treasury yields fell in tandem with rate hike expectations. The 10-year yield dipped under 4.6%, nearing its early October lows. As monetary policy tightening fears ease, bonds become more attractive.

Meanwhile, Thursday’s batch of earnings updates proved a mixed bag. Starbucks and Shopify impressed with better than forecast reports showcasing resilient demand and progress on cost discipline. Shopify even managed to eke out a quarterly profit thanks to AI-driven optimization.

Both stocks gained over 10%, extending gains for October’s worst sectors – consumer discretionary and tech. But biotech Moderna plunged nearly 20% on underwhelming COVID vaccine sales guidance. With demand waning amid relaxed restrictions, Moderna expects revenue weakness to persist.

Still, markets found enough earnings bright spots to sustain optimism around what many now view as the Fed’s endgame. Bets on peak rates mark a momentous shift from earlier gloom over soaring inflation and relentless hiking.

Savoring the End of Hiking Anxiety

Just six weeks ago, recession alarm bells were clanging loudly. The S&P 500 seemed destined to retest its June lows after a brief summer rally crumbled. The Nasdaq lagged badly as the Fed’s hawkish resolve dashed hopes of a policy pivot.

But September’s surprisingly low inflation reading marked a turning point in sentiment. Rate hike fears moderated and stocks found firmer footing. Even with some residual CPI and jobs gains worrying hawkish Fed members, investors are increasingly looking past isolated data points.

Thursday’s rally revealed a market eager to rotate toward the next major focus: peak rates. With the terminal level now potentially in view, attention turns to the timing and magnitude of rate cuts once inflation falls further.

Markets are ready to move on from monetary policy uncertainty and regain the upside mentality that supported stocks for so long. The Nasdaq’s outperformance shows traders positioning for a soft landing rather than bracing for recession impact.

Challenges Remain, but a Peak Brings Relief

Reaching peak rates won’t instantly cure all market ills, however. Geopolitical turmoil, supply chain snarls, and the strong dollar all linger as headwinds. Corporate earnings face pressure from margins strained by high costs and waning demand.

And valuations may reset lower in sectors like tech that got ahead of themselves when easy money flowed freely. But putting an endpoint on the rate rollercoaster will remove the largest overhang on sentiment and allow fundamentals to reassert influence.

With peak rates cementing a dovish pivot ahead, optimism can return. The bear may not yet retreat fully into hibernation, but its claws will dull. As long as the economic foundation holds, stocks have room to rebuild confidence now that the end is in sight.

Of course, the Fed could always surprise hawkishly if inflation persists. But Thursday showed a market ready to look ahead with hopes the firehose of rate hikes shutting off will allow a modest new bull run to take shape in 2024.

Fed Holds Rates at New 22-Year High, Hints More Hikes Possible

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve announced its widely expected decision on Wednesday to maintain interest rates at a new 22-year high after an aggressive series of hikes intended to cool inflation. The Fed kept its benchmark rate in a range of 5.25-5.50%, indicating it remains committed to tamping down price increases through restrictive monetary policy.

In its statement, the Fed upgraded its assessment of economic activity to “strong” in the third quarter, a notable shift from “solid” in September. The upgrade likely reflects the blockbuster 4.9% annualized GDP growth in Q3, driven by resilient consumer spending.

However, the Fed made clear further rate hikes could still occur if economic conditions warrant. The central bank is treading cautiously given uncertainty around how past tightening will impact growth and jobs.

For consumers, the Fed’s hiking campaign this year has significantly increased the cost of borrowing for homes, cars, and credit cards. Mortgage rates have essentially doubled from a year ago, deterring many would-be home buyers and slowing the housing market. Auto loan rates are up roughly 3 percentage points in 2023, increasing monthly payments. The average credit card interest rate now sits around 19%, the highest since 1996.

Savers are finally benefitting from higher yield on savings accounts, CDs, and Treasury bonds after years of paltry returns. But overall, households are facing greater financial strain from pricier loans that could eventually crimp spending and economic momentum if rates stay elevated.

“The Fed is deliberately slowing demand to get inflation in check, and that painful process is underway,” noted Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride. “For consumers, the impact is being felt most acutely in the higher costs of homes, autos, and credit card debt.”

Investors have also felt the brunt of aggressive Fed tightening through increased market volatility and falling valuations. The S&P 500 has sunk over 20% from January’s record high, meeting the technical definition of a bear market. Rising Treasury yields have put pressure on stocks, especially higher growth technology names.

Still, stocks rebounded in October based on hopes that easing inflation could allow the Fed to slow or pause rate increases soon. Markets are betting rates could start declining in 2024 if inflation continues trending down. But that remains uncertain.

“The Fed is data dependent, so until they see clear evidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward trajectory, they have to keep tightening,” said Chris Taylor, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley. “Markets are cheering lower inflation readings, but the Fed can’t declare victory yet.”

In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that officials have “some ways to go” before stopping rate hikes. Powell indicated the Fed plans to hold rates at a restrictive level for some time to ensure inflation is contained.

With consumer and business spending still relatively healthy, the Fed currently believes the economy can withstand additional tightening for now. But Powell acknowledged a downturn is possible as the delayed impacts of higher rates materialize.

For investors, the path ahead likely entails continued volatility until more predictable Fed policy emerges. But markets appear reassured by the central bank’s data-dependent approach. As inflation slowly declines, hopes are growing that the end of the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle may come into focus sometime in 2024, potentially setting the stage for an economic and market rebound.

September Sees Record Lows in Home Sales

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The US housing market continues to show signs of a significant downturn, with existing home sales in September dropping to the slowest pace since October 2010. This marks a 15.4% decline compared to September 2022, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The sharp drop in home sales highlights how rising mortgage rates and declining affordability are severely impacting the housing market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate now sits around 8%, more than double what it was just a year ago. This rapid surge in borrowing costs has priced many buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers.

Only 27% of September home sales went to first-time buyers, well below the historical norm of 40%. Many simply cannot afford today’s high home prices and mortgage payments. As a result, sales activity has fallen dramatically. The current sales pace of 3.96 million units annualized is down markedly from over 6 million just two years ago, when rates were around 3%.

At the same time, inventory remains extremely tight. There were just 1.13 million existing homes available for sale at the end of September, an over 8% decline from last year. This persistent shortage of homes for sale continues to put upward pressure on prices. The median sales price in September hit $394,300, up 2.8% from a year ago.

While higher prices are squeezing buyers, they are not denting demand enough to significantly expand inventory. Many current homeowners are reluctant to sell and give up their ultra-low mortgage rates. This dynamic is keeping the market undersupplied, even as sales cool.

Not all buyers are impacted equally by higher rates. Sales have held up better on the upper end of the market, while declining sharply for mid-priced and affordable homes. This divergence reflects that high-end buyers often have more financial flexibility, including the ability to purchase in cash.

All-cash sales represented 29% of transactions in September, up notably from 22% a year earlier. Wealthier buyers with financial assets can better absorb higher borrowing costs. In contrast, first-time buyers and middle-income Americans are being squeezed the most by rate hikes.

Looking ahead, the housing slowdown is likely to persist and potentially worsen. Mortgage applications are now at their lowest level since 1995, signaling very weak demand ahead. And while inflation has eased slightly, the Federal Reserve is still expected to continue raising interest rates further to combat it.

Higher rates mean reduced affordability and housing activity, especially if home prices remain elevated due to limited inventory. This perfect storm in the housing market points to significant headwinds for the broader economy going forward.

The housing sector has historically been a key driver of economic growth in the US. But with sales and construction activity slowing substantially, it may act as a drag on GDP growth in coming quarters. Combined with declining affordability, fewer homes being purchased also means less spending on furniture, renovations, and other housing-related items.

Some analysts believe the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes will ultimately tip the economy into a recession. The depth of the housing market downturn so far this year does not bode well from a macroeconomic perspective. It signals households are pulling back materially on major purchases, which could contribute to a broader economic contraction.

While no significant recovery is expected in the near-term, lower demand could eventually help rebalance the market. As sales moderate, competitive bidding may ease, taking some pressure off prices. And if economic conditions worsen substantially, the Fed may again reverse course on interest rates. But for now, the housing sector appears poised for more weakness ahead. Homebuyers and investors should brace for ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

Inflation Battle Goes On: Powell’s Reassuring Message from the Fed

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s determination to bring down inflation in a speech today, even as he acknowledged potential economic risks from sustained high interest rates. His remarks underline the Fed’s unwavering focus on price stability despite emerging signs of an economic slowdown.

While noting welcome data showing inflation may be starting to cool, Powell stressed it was too early to determine a downward trend. He stated forcefully that inflation remains “too high”, requiring ongoing policy resolve from the Fed to return it to the 2% target.

Powell hinted the path to lower inflation likely entails a period of below-trend economic growth and softening labor market conditions. With jobless claims recently hitting a three-month low, the robust job market could exert persistent upward pressure on prices. Powell indicated weaker growth may be necessary to rebalance supply and demand and quell wage-driven inflation.

His remarks mirror other Fed officials who have suggested a growth sacrifice may be required to decisively curb inflation. The comments reflect Powell’s primary focus on price stability amid the worst outbreak of inflation in over 40 years. He admitted the path to lower inflation will likely prove bumpy and take time.

Powell stated the Fed will base policy moves on incoming data, risks, and the evolving outlook. But he stressed officials are united in their commitment to the inflation mandate. Additional evidence of strong economic growth or persistent labor market tightness could necessitate further rate hikes.

Markets widely expect the Fed to pause rate increases for now, after aggressively raising the federal funds rate this year from near zero to a current target range of 3.75%-4%. But Powell avoided any definitive signal on the future policy path. His remarks leave the door open to additional tightening if high inflation persists.

The speech underscores the Fed’s data-dependent approach while maintaining flexibility in either direction. Powell emphasized officials will proceed carefully in evaluating when to halt rate hikes and eventually ease monetary policy. The Fed faces heightened risks now of overtightening into a potential recession or undertightening if inflation remains stubbornly high.

After being accused of misreading rapidly rising inflation last year, Powell stressed the importance of policy consistency and avoiding premature pivots. A sustainable return to the 2% goal will require ongoing tight monetary policy for some time, even as economic headwinds strengthen.

Still, Powell acknowledged the uncertainties in the outlook given myriad economic crosscurrents. While rate hikes will continue slowing growth, easing supply chain strains and improving global trade could help counter those drags next year. And robust household savings could cushion consumer spending despite higher rates.

But Powell made clear the Fed will not declare victory prematurely given the persistence of inflation. Officials remain firmly committed to policy firming until convincing evidence demonstrates inflation moving down sustainably toward the target. Only then can the Fed safely conclude its aggressive tightening cycle.

For investors, Powell’s speech signals monetary policy will likely remain restrictive for some time, though the ultimate peak in rates remains uncertain. Markets should prepare for extended volatility as the Fed responds to evolving economic data. With risks tilted toward policy tightness, interest-sensitive assets could face ongoing pressure.