Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Disappointing 1Q23. Management was disappointed with 1Q23 results, but a number of negative impacts were out of their hands, such as weather and customer delays, impacting production rates and profitability. However, these projects are not lost, just pushed to the right.

But Improvements Being Made. The most significant is a return to profitability for the Concrete segment in March, its first profitable month in two years. As the unfavorable Central Texas business continues to fall off, we expect further profitability improvement for the Concrete business.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – CVG Announces CEO Transition and Reaffirms 2023 Outlook And Long-Term Strategy

Research News and Market Data on CVGI

MAY, 09, 2023

NEW ALBANY, Ohio, May 09, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CVG (NASDAQ: CVGI), a diversified industrial products and services company, announced yesterday that Harold Bevis is resigning from his role as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company and as a member of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) effective May 19, 2023 to become chief executive officer of another company. Mr. Bevis’ resignation did not result from any disagreement with the Company on any matter, including any matter relating to its operations, policies or practices.

Robert C. Griffin, the Chairman of the Board, is expected to be elected by the Board as the Company’s interim President and Chief Executive Officer, effective May 19, 2023. Mr. Griffin along with the Board of Directors has served as a Director since 2005 and has worked closely alongside Harold in designing and implementing the Company’s strategy.

“Harold has set CVG on the right path for future growth and we’re grateful for his contributions,” Mr. Griffin said. “The board and I are eager now to find the right leader who will continue our momentum as a business and drive us into the future.”

Mr. Griffin will serve as interim President and Chief Executive Officer until his successor is chosen. The Company is in the process of conducting a comprehensive search for a permanent President and Chief Executive Officer and will name Mr. Griffin’s successor at the completion of the search.

In announcing the management changes noted above, the Company today reaffirmed its commitment to its strategic goals and improvement in its results for 2023.

As disclosed in its first quarter results and discussed on its first quarter conference call on May 4, 2023, the Company:

  • will continue its focus on price and cost which allowed it to deliver significant margin expansion in the first quarter;
  • believes its first quarter margin performance is sustainable for fiscal 2023 given the current vehicle production outlook;
  • believes based on the current revenue run rate, combined with new wins that are still ramping up, it is on track to deliver its 2027 revenue target of $1.5 billion; and
  • will continue to focus on price and inflation management, and cost reduction as it works toward achieving a 9% EBITDA margin target by 2027.

Mr. Griffin stated, “The Board is pleased with the Company’s first quarter performance and reaffirms our commitment to the Company’s strategic direction as discussed on its first quarter call on May 4, 2023. We believe we have a solid balance sheet, a business winning culture, and strong leadership team that positions us well to execute on our strategy. The Board looks forward to working with the management team to continue our positive momentum throughout this transition.”

Robert C. Griffin Biography

Mr. Griffin, 75, has served as a member of the Board since July 2005, and was elected Chairman in 2019. Mr. Griffin’s career spanned over 25 years in the financial sector until he retired from Barclays Capital, where from June 2000 to March 2002 he was Head of Investment Banking, Americas and a member of the Management Committee. Prior to joining Barclays Capital, Mr. Griffin was a member of the Executive Committee for the Montgomery Division of Banc of America Securities and held a number of positions with Bank of America, including Group Executive Vice President and Head of Global Debt Capital Raising and as a Senior Management Council Member. Since 2005, he has served on a number of boards, both public and private, including during the last five years, the boards of the following public companies: The J.G. Wentworth Company (ending in 2018), and Builders FirstSource, Inc. (ending in 2019).

Company Contact

Andy Cheung
Chief Financial Officer
CVG
IR@cvgrp.com

Investor Relations Contact

Ross Collins or Stephen Poe
Alpha IR Group
CVGI@alpha-ir.com

About CVG

At CVG, we deliver real solutions to complex design, engineering and manufacturing problems across a range of global industries by innovating, constantly adding value, and treating our customer’s bottom line as if it were our own. Information about the Company and its products is available on the internet at www.cvgrp.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements often include words such as “believe”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “expect”, “intend”, “will”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “project”, “continue”, “likely”, and similar expressions. In particular, this press release may contain forward-looking statements about the Company’s expectations for future periods with respect to its plans to improve financial results, the future of the Company’s end markets, including the short-term and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, changes in the Class 8 and Class 5-7 North America truck build rates, performance of the global construction equipment business, the Company’s prospects in the wire harness, warehouse automation and electric vehicle markets, the Company’s initiatives to address customer needs, organic growth, the Company’s strategic plans and plans to focus on certain segments, competition faced by the Company, volatility in and disruption to the global economic environment and the Company’s financial position or other financial information. These statements are based on certain assumptions that the Company has made in light of its experience as well as its perspective on historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate under the circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated results because of certain risks and uncertainties, including those included in the Company’s filings with the SEC. There can be no assurance that statements made in this press release relating to future events will be achieved. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results over time. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to the Company or persons acting on behalf of the Company are expressly qualified in their entirety by such cautionary statements.

Source: Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Quick Look into the First Quarter


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results are In. Orion had contract revenues of $159.2 million, a 9% decrease from the prior year’s $174.9 million. We had revenue of $175 million. Gross profit was at $5.8 million or 3.7% of revenue, down from $12.8 million or 7.3% of revenue in the first quarter of 2022. The Company had a net loss of $12.6 million, or $0.07 per share, compared to a loss of $4.9 million, or $0.16 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was a negative $4.1 million, or (2.6)% margin compared to $5.2 million or 3.0% last year.

Credit Facility and Property Sale. The Company had reached an agreement with a private lender and expects to have a new ABL credit facility completed shortly. The facility consists of a $38 million term loan and revolving credit facility of $65 million and will be used to retire Orion’s existing credit facility and for general corporate purposes. As reported previously, Orion has a contract for the East West Jones properties in Texas, with the purchase price being $36 million. It is expected to close in the third quarter of 2023.


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Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – First-Quarter Results In Line With Recently Revised Estimates


Monday, May 08, 2023

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (“Eagle”) is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Sensitivity to shipping rates leads to declines, as expected. Eagle Bulk Shipping reported a 43% decrease in net revenues versus last year despite additional operating days. The decline was due to a 53% decline in average TCE rates. Eagle’s financial results are highly leveraged to changes in shipping rates with a coverage position of only 65% of available days for the upcoming second quarter. 

The trend of rising operating costs seems to be abating. Cash operating costs have been rising in recent quarters but the growth appears to be slowing. Most notably was the decline in charter expenses (which we typically do do not model in). The decline was due to a reduction in chartered-in days (944 versus 960 last year) and an overall decline in charter hire rates related to the decline in drybulk market.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Solid 1Q23 Results; Growth Opportunities Expanding


Monday, May 08, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results. Results came in at the high end of guidance. Revenue totaled $231.8 million, up 18.1% y-o-y. Organic growth was 12%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $17 million, up from $13.8 million in 1Q22. GAAP EPS loss was $0.05 and adjusted EPS net income was $0.06, compared to a net loss of $0.13 and adjusted EPS of $0.04, respectively, a year ago. We had forecasted $220 million, $15.5 million, $(0.03), and $0.07, respectively.

Expanding Opportunity Set. Kratos’ opportunity set continues to expand. As part of the 5-year defense spend plan, the USAF has requested approximately $6 billion reflecting an increased prioritization with it being reported that the Air Force is looking to ultimately procure up to 2,000 drone systems. The Navy has been reported as stating they envision up to 60% of the future Navy Air Wing being comprised of drones.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – 1Q23 Post Call Commentary


Monday, May 08, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

May 11th. With Title 42 expected to end May 11th, CoreCivic is well positioned to capitalize on any increase in ICE detainee populations. The key unanswered question is if the Biden Administration will enforce existing immigration laws. Recent comments by Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas suggests the federal government will, but it remains to be seen.

Well Positioned. CoreCivic is well positioned to assist the government with any additional demand for beds and services. The Company has “thousands” of beds at existing facilities that could be used and seven idle facilities that could be restarted. The Company has hired staff in anticipation of rising populations.


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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Post Call Update


Friday, May 05, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Timing. As we suspected, the top line miss was more a reflection of contract timing, as some awards have been pushed out to the right. We are not concerned as we expect the business eventually will come in. We would point out continued growth in the VA mail order business, with the $20.2 million of revenue in the quarter up 18.1% y-o-y.

Mix. The lower than projected EPS was driven by two items: lower margin than we had expected, mostly due the mix of business in the quarter, and higher interest expense, mostly due to the higher interest rate environment impact on DLH’s variable rate debt.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Releases 2Q23 Results


Thursday, May 04, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2QFY23 Results. DLH reported revenue of $99.4 million compared to $68.9 million the year prior, excluding FEMA contract contribution. GRSi contributed $32.6 million of revenue, indicating the core DLH business saw revenue decline $2.1 million y-o-y. Net income was reported at $0.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, versus $7.2 million, or $0.50, last year. EBITDA was at $10.5 million compared with $12.1 million last year, or $6.6 million excluding FEMA.

Focusing In. Although revenue came in lower than our expected $104 million, we believe this to be more a function of some business moving to the right and the challenge in estimating the recently acquired GRSI business. We do not believe the “miss” indicates a deterioration of the core business. We continue to believe the new DLH has significant growth opportunities. The Company has noted multiple cross selling opportunities, with a recent example being the award given by the National Cancer Institute’s Center for Biomedical Informatics and Information Technology for IT services.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look at 1Q23 Results


Thursday, May 04, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results Below Expectations. Revenue totaled $458 million, up from $453 million a year ago, but below our $469 million projection. Consensus was $471 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $73.7 million, down from $80.8 million in 1Q22. We were at $76.4 million. CXW reported net income of $12.4 million, or $0.11/sh, compared to $19 million, or $0.16/sh last year and our $16.3 million, or $0.14/sh estimate. 

Labor, Arizona Remain Challenges. CoreCivic substantially completed the transition of inmate populations at the La Palma facility by the end of 2022, but continued to incur elevated operating expenses during the first quarter of 2023. This is due to ongoing efforts to attract and retain local staff at the facility, as well as other facilities to position the Company for the increased number of residents anticipated at facilities once the remaining occupancy restrictions attributable to COVID-19 are removed.


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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Sale of East and West Jones


Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Proposed Sale. On April 26th, Orion entered into a contract to sell the East and West Jones properties for $35.978 million. The transaction is expected to close before the end of September 2023. The sale of these properties has been a long time coming but are a significant positive for Orion, in our opinion.

Use of Proceeds. Historically, management has stated any proceeds from property sales would be used to repay/pay down debt. At year-end, total debt outstanding stood at $35.7 million, suggesting the Company could pay down a significant portion of the outstanding debt, depending on the net after-tax proceeds from the sale.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Better Than Expected 1Q23, But Conditions Still Challenging


Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23. Revenue came in at $158.0 million down from $194.3 million last year, but above our $148 million projection. Gross margin was 7.7%, down from 17% in the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $10.2 million versus $29.7 million last year. The Company reported a loss of $3.2 million, or a loss of $0.05 per share for the quarter, compared to last year’s net income of $11.1 million, or $0.17 per diluted share. We had projected a net loss of $14.5 million, or a loss of $0.22 per share.

Backlog. Great Lakes ended the quarter with $327.1 million of dredging backlog, which does not include approximately $50.0 million of performance obligations related to offshore wind contracts. In addition, the Company ended the quarter with $516.9 million in low bids and options pending award. The Company’s awarded work during the quarter represented 31.7% of the first quarter bid market. Not included in the first quarter backlog is the Freeport Capital Port Deepening project, on which Great Lakes was the low bidder in April for approximately $160 million, which is the third largest domestic capital project Great Lakes has won in its history.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Earnings Preview – The Upward Trend Begins


Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (“Eagle”) is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

We expect the first quarter to be a down quarter due to low shipping rates. Shipping rates have showed signs of  improving recently but should provide low comparisons in the first quarter. We look for net revenues to be down 45% year over year and diluted earnings per share to be down 93%. The sharp decline reflects Eagle’s sensitivity to shipping rates.

Things should improve after the first quarter. Rates are expected to rise beginning in the second quarter. In addition, the company will add two new ships in the third quarter. We anticipate a 20% quarter over quarter jump in revenues in the second quarter followed by lesser increases in the third and fourth quarters. EPS will rebound at an even higher rate given Eagles financial leverage.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Solid First Quarter Results


Wednesday, April 26, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $608.2 million, up from $551.2 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $130.9 million, EPS was $0.19, and adjusted EPS $0.22. In the year ago period, GEO reported $125.2 million, $0.26, and $0.31, respectively. We had forecast $607 million, $128 million, $0.21, and $0.21, respectively.

ISAP the Sequential Delta. Electronic monitoring revenue declined to $132.6 million in 1Q23 down from $149.8 million in 4Q22, with the remaining businesses up $4.3 million sequentially. Notably, populations under the program have been relatively stable since the beginning of March. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.