Tag: Housing

New Home Sales Surge in March Despite Mounting Cost Pressures

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– New home sales rose 7.4% in March, driven by increased inventory and strong spring demand, especially in the South.
– Tariffs on steel and aluminum are expected to raise construction costs, with builders warning of price hikes later in 2025.
– Mortgage rates near 7% continue to limit affordability, but buyer activity remains resilient due to builder incentives and more supply.

New home sales in the U.S. saw a notable boost in March, as builders responded to seasonal demand with more inventory, despite challenges from rising mortgage rates and looming tariff-related cost hikes. The spring buying season got a lift, with the Census Bureau reporting a 7.4% jump in new home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000 units — handily beating Bloomberg’s forecast of 685,000.

The increase reflects a strong start to what is typically the busiest time of the year for housing. Supply also played a critical role. Inventory rose to 503,000 new homes for sale at the end of March, the highest level since 2007, giving buyers more options amid a tight resale market. This bump in supply helped spur activity, especially in the South, where sales jumped at the fastest pace in nearly four years. The Midwest also saw gains, while activity declined in the West and Northeast.

The housing market’s momentum comes despite ongoing headwinds. Mortgage rates, which hover near 7%, continue to limit affordability for many buyers. These rates follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed recently amid investor unease about U.S. fiscal policy and political volatility. President Trump’s tariff policies and recent public threats to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have created further market anxiety, causing bond yields to rise and adding pressure on borrowing costs.

High interest rates aren’t the only affordability hurdle. The average new home sales price rose 1% in March to $497,700, while the median price dropped 7.5% to $403,600. This pricing mix suggests more movement in entry-level housing, likely a response to strong demand from first-time buyers and younger households.

Still, looming tariff pressures threaten to raise construction costs and squeeze builder margins. During a recent earnings call, PulteGroup warned that tariffs could increase construction expenses by about 1% in the back half of 2025, translating to an average of $5,000 more per home. CEO Ryan Marshall said the added costs would impact “every single price point and consumer group,” raising concerns about future pricing flexibility.

Taylor Morrison, another major builder, echoed these concerns, forecasting low single-digit housing cost inflation for the year. The culprit: U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which are integral to HVAC systems, cable infrastructure, and other construction materials. These added costs are expected to hit hardest in Q4, as builders begin new projects under higher input prices.

To sustain buyer interest, many builders have leaned on incentives — including mortgage rate buydowns and design upgrades — but the staying power of this strategy remains uncertain. As cost pressures grow and rate cuts remain off the table for now, builders may have to choose between profit margins and affordability.

Despite these challenges, the resilience in March’s new home sales shows that the housing market still has underlying strength. For now, buyers appear willing to move forward when supply meets their needs — even in the face of higher borrowing costs.

Homebuyer and Homebuilder Confidence Dips Amid Economic Pressures

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– New tariffs on building materials and sustained high mortgage rates are dampening homebuilder confidence.
– Delinquency on government-backed loans is increasing, signaling strain among lower-income homeowners.
– Inflation and interest rates continue to influence housing affordability, with potential broader market implications.

In a troubling sign for the U.S. housing market, homebuilder confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in five months, primarily due to rising costs from new tariffs and high mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 42 in February, down from expectations of 46, indicating more builders view current conditions as poor. This downturn comes at a time when President Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum, set to impact construction costs, are causing significant concern among builders.

Simultaneously, the mortgage landscape is growing more challenging for homeowners, particularly those with government-backed loans. Delinquency rates on Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veterans Affairs (VA) loans have surged past pre-pandemic levels, reaching 11.03% and 4.7% respectively. This rise underscores the financial strain felt by lower-income brackets amidst persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Despite a slight decrease in interest rates in late 2024, the current economic climate has left many homeowners struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments, with job loss and excessive debt cited as major reasons for delinquency.

The broader economic implications are significant. While conventional mortgage delinquencies remain near historical lows, the uptick in FHA and VA loan issues might foreshadow a wider trend if economic conditions do not improve. Analysts like James Knightley from ING point out that while higher-income households might have seen benefits from stock market gains, the lower-income segment is feeling the squeeze from both rising costs and stagnant or reduced real income.

Moreover, recent data from ICE Mortgage Technology suggests that even high-income earners are beginning to show signs of financial stress, with delinquencies on various types of debt increasing. This could signal a more widespread economic downturn if not addressed. The housing market, often a bellwether for economic health, is thus at a critical juncture, with builders and buyers alike looking for signs of relief or further policy adjustments to navigate these turbulent times.

The current scenario might lead to a more cautious approach from builders. With 26% of builders cutting home prices in February and 59% offering incentives, it’s clear the market is feeling the pressure. Additionally, the NAHB survey’s indicators for future sales and buyer traffic have seen significant declines, suggesting a potential slowdown in housing activity unless there are interventions to ease the financial burden on potential buyers and builders alike.

As the market braces for these economic headwinds, stakeholders are watching closely for any policy shifts that could alleviate the pressures on the housing sector. Whether through regulatory reforms, adjustments in monetary policy, or international trade negotiations to mitigate tariff impacts, the path forward for housing will be shaped by how these challenges are met.

The ripple effects of these economic pressures could extend beyond the housing market, potentially impacting related industries like construction materials, home furnishing, and real estate services. There’s a growing concern that if the housing market continues to struggle, it might pull down consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of U.S. GDP, leading to a broader economic slowdown.

In response, some in the industry are calling for more robust support mechanisms, like expanded first-time buyer incentives or government-backed initiatives to stimulate construction activity. The hope is that such measures could help stabilize the market and protect the livelihoods of those dependent on the housing sector, while also ensuring that the American dream of homeownership remains within reach for the next generation.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Hit 14-Year Low in September as Buyers Wait for Lower Rates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Home sales dropped by 1.0% in September to the lowest level since 2010.
– Housing inventory rose 1.5%, but prices remained elevated, increasing 3% year-over-year.
– First-time homebuyers made up only 26% of sales, below the 40% needed for a robust market.

U.S. existing home sales fell to their lowest level in 14 years in September, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market as buyers continued to hold out for lower mortgage rates. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales dropped 1.0% last month, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual rate to 3.84 million units, the lowest figure since October 2010. The decline surprised economists, who had forecasted no change at 3.86 million units.

The year-on-year picture was equally bleak, with sales down 3.5% from September 2023, marking a continuing trend of sluggish demand following the spike in mortgage rates earlier this year. While rates briefly dropped after the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates, they have climbed again over the last three weeks, fueled by strong economic data that has led traders to scale back expectations of further rate cuts next month.

The NAR speculated that the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5 might also be contributing to buyer hesitancy, although there is no hard evidence supporting this claim. “Some consumers may be delaying a major financial decision like purchasing a home until after the election,” noted Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. He added, however, that market conditions—such as more available inventory, lower mortgage rates compared to last year, and job gains—remain favorable for buyers who choose to act now.

Despite the increase in housing supply, prices have not dropped as some buyers had hoped. The median existing home price rose 3.0% year-over-year to $404,500 in September, with home prices increasing across all regions of the country. Housing inventory climbed 1.5% to 1.39 million units, the highest level since October 2020, providing buyers with more options, though still not enough to significantly lower prices.

At the current pace of sales, it would take 4.3 months to exhaust the existing supply of homes, up from 3.4 months a year ago. A balanced market typically has a supply range of four to seven months, so while the increase in inventory is welcome, it has yet to shift the balance enough to bring prices down.

First-time homebuyers continue to struggle in this market, making up only 26% of transactions, a slight drop from 27% last year. This is well below the 40% share that economists and realtors say is necessary for a healthy housing market. Many first-time buyers are being priced out due to high home prices and elevated borrowing costs.

Additionally, 30% of transactions in September were all-cash sales, up from 29% a year ago, as wealthier buyers and investors continue to dominate the market. Distressed sales, including foreclosures, made up just 2% of total transactions, similar to last year’s figures, indicating that most homeowners are not under extreme financial pressure to sell.

As the housing market continues to face uncertainty around mortgage rates and economic conditions, prospective buyers remain cautious. With elevated prices, and only modest improvements in supply, it is unclear when the market might see a full recovery in sales activity.

Mortgage Refinance Boom Takes Hold as Weekly Demand Surges 20%

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Refinancing applications surged 20% in one week amid declining mortgage rates.
– Mortgage rates fell to 6.13%, the lowest in two years, driving demand.
– The refinance share of mortgage applications reached 55.7% of total demand.

Mortgage refinance activity has seen a significant surge as homeowners across the United States rush to take advantage of falling interest rates. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), applications to refinance home loans soared by 20% last week compared to the previous week, driven by the continuous decline in mortgage rates. This marks a stunning 175% increase in refinance demand from the same time last year.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) dropped to 6.13% from 6.15%. Though the change may seem small, the cumulative effect of eight straight weeks of declining rates is pushing homeowners to seize the opportunity for potential savings. Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at MBA, highlighted this ongoing trend: “The 30-year fixed rate decreased for the eighth straight week to 6.13%, while the FHA rate decreased to 5.99%, breaking the psychologically important 6% level.”

Refinance applications now make up 55.7% of all mortgage applications, showcasing how appealing the current rates are for homeowners. However, while the percentage rise is significant, the overall level of refinancing activity remains modest when compared to previous refinancing waves. The ongoing economic environment, combined with seasonal slowdowns in homebuying, has contributed to this pattern.

Despite the seasonal slowdown, mortgage applications to purchase homes rose just 1% over the last week, demonstrating that homebuyers are still facing challenges like high home prices and limited inventory. These factors have kept the pace of new home purchases relatively stable, with purchase applications only 2% higher than the same week last year.

One interesting takeaway from the latest data is that average loan sizes for both refinancing and home purchases have reached record highs. The overall average loan size hit $413,100 last week, the largest in the survey’s history. This reflects both the continued rise in home values and the larger loan amounts that homeowners are seeking, particularly in high-cost markets.

Looking ahead, mortgage rates have not seen significant movement at the start of this week. However, they may react as more pressing economic data, such as jobs reports and inflation numbers, are released in the coming weeks. Any developments in the broader economic outlook could influence the future path of mortgage rates, either stabilizing them or prompting further fluctuations.

For now, homeowners who have yet to take advantage of the current low rates are eyeing the market closely, as more savings could be realized with additional rate cuts. With mortgage rates remaining near their lowest levels in two years, the refinancing boom may continue to gain traction, especially if the Federal Reserve implements further rate cuts to counter slowing economic growth.

Housing Market Shakeup: Mortgage Rates Plummet as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– 30-year fixed mortgage rates drop to 15-month low
– Federal Reserve hints at possible rate cuts starting September
– Refinancing applications surge, but home purchases remain sluggish

The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant shift as mortgage rates tumble to their lowest levels in over a year, offering a glimmer of hope for both potential homebuyers and current homeowners looking to refinance. This dramatic change comes on the heels of signals from the Federal Reserve about potential interest rate cuts and weakening job market data.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plunged by 27 basis points to 6.55% in the week ending August 2, 2024. This marks the lowest rate since May 2023 and represents the sharpest drop in two years. The sudden decline in mortgage rates can be attributed to two primary factors: the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts beginning in September and a noticeable slowdown in the job market.

The Federal Reserve, which had previously maintained an aggressive stance on inflation by keeping interest rates high, has now hinted at a potential policy shift. This change in direction comes as a response to cooling price pressures and a decelerating labor market. The possibility of rate cuts as early as next month has sent ripples through financial markets, affecting everything from stocks to Treasury yields.

Adding fuel to the fire, the Labor Department’s July jobs report revealed a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% and a slowdown in hiring. These indicators have sparked concerns about an imminent recession, leading to a temporary slide in equities and a rally in U.S. Treasuries. The resulting drop in Treasury yields has had a direct impact on mortgage rates, creating a potential opportunity for millions of American households.

The sudden drop in mortgage rates has had an immediate effect on refinancing applications, which have surged to their highest level in two years. Homeowners who purchased properties when rates were at their peak – around 7.9% last October – now have the chance to refinance and potentially lower their monthly payments significantly.

However, the impact on home purchases has been less dramatic. Despite the more favorable borrowing conditions, purchase activity only edged up by less than 1%. This muted response can be attributed to the persistent issue of low housing inventory, which continues to drive up home prices and offset the benefits of lower interest rates for many potential buyers.

The current situation presents a mixed bag for the housing market. On one hand, lower mortgage rates offer relief to those who have been priced out of the market in recent years due to the combination of rising home prices and high borrowing costs. On the other hand, the underlying economic concerns that have led to this rate drop – particularly the weakening job market – could potentially dampen consumer confidence and willingness to make major purchases like homes.

As the market adapts to these new conditions, real estate professionals, lenders, and policymakers will be closely monitoring how these changes affect housing affordability, inventory levels, and overall market dynamics. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this drop in mortgage rates will be enough to stimulate a broader recovery in the housing market or if other economic factors will continue to pose challenges.

In conclusion, while the plummeting mortgage rates offer a ray of hope for many Americans, the housing market’s response remains to be seen. As economic uncertainties persist, potential homebuyers and homeowners alike will need to carefully weigh their options in this rapidly evolving landscape.

Economic Headwinds: Labor Market Softens and Housing Sector Cools

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Recent economic reports suggest that the U.S. economy may be facing increasing headwinds, with signs of softening in both the labor market and housing sector. These indicators point to a moderation in economic activity for the second quarter of 2024, potentially setting the stage for a shift in Federal Reserve policy later this year.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended June 15 fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000. While this represents a slight improvement from the previous week’s 10-month high, it only partially reverses the recent upward trend. More tellingly, the four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose to 232,750 – the highest level since mid-September 2023.

Adding to concerns about the labor market, continuing unemployment claims edged up to 1.828 million for the week ending June 8, marking the highest level since January. This uptick in ongoing claims could indicate that laid-off workers are facing increased difficulties in finding new employment, a potential red flag for overall job market health.

The unemployment rate, which rose to 4.0% in May for the first time since January 2022, further underscores the gradual cooling of the labor market. While job growth did accelerate in May, some economists caution that this may overstate the true robustness of employment conditions.

Turning to the housing sector, the news is equally sobering. The Commerce Department reported that housing starts plummeted 5.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.277 million units – the lowest level since June 2020. This decline was even more pronounced in the critical single-family housing segment, which saw starts fall 5.2% to a rate of 982,000 units, the lowest since October 2023.

The slowdown in housing construction is mirrored by a drop in building permits, often seen as a leading indicator for future construction activity. Permits for new housing projects tumbled 3.8% in May, again reaching levels not seen since June 2020. This decline in both current and future building activity paints a concerning picture for the housing market’s near-term prospects.

Several factors appear to be contributing to the housing sector’s struggles. Mortgage rates have seen significant volatility, with the average 30-year fixed rate reaching a six-month high of 7.22% in early May before retreating slightly. These elevated borrowing costs are keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines, as noted by the National Association of Home Builders, which reported that homebuilder confidence hit a six-month low in June.

The combination of a softening labor market and a cooling housing sector has led some economists to revise their growth projections downward. Goldman Sachs, for instance, has pared back its GDP growth estimate for the second quarter to a 1.9% annualized rate, down from an earlier projection of 2.0%.

These economic indicators are likely to factor heavily into the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process in the coming months. Despite the Fed’s more hawkish stance at its recent meeting, where officials projected just one quarter-point rate cut for this year, financial markets are anticipating the possibility of multiple rate cuts. The latest data may bolster the case for monetary easing, with some economists now seeing the potential for an initial rate cut as early as September.

Many economists believe that the soft activity and labor market data reinforce expectations for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in the coming months, with potential cuts in September and December being discussed.

While the U.S. economy continues to show resilience in many areas, the emerging signs of moderation in both the labor and housing markets suggest that the impact of higher interest rates is beginning to be felt more broadly. As we move into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on incoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s response to these evolving conditions. The delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting economic growth remains a key challenge for policymakers in the months ahead.

The confluence of a cooling job market and a struggling housing sector paints a picture of an economy at a crossroads. As these trends continue to develop, they will likely play a crucial role in shaping both economic policy and market expectations for the remainder of the year and beyond.

Homebuyers Face Ongoing Affordability Challenges Despite Slight Mortgage Rate Dip

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The mortgage market has seen a slight reprieve this week, with average rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage dipping just below 7%. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate has decreased to 6.95% from 6.99% the previous week. However, for many prospective homebuyers, this minor drop may not be enough to make a significant difference in affordability.

Freddie Mac’s report on Thursday highlights a small but noteworthy dip in mortgage rates. A separate measure tracking daily averages by Mortgage News Daily shows fluctuations between 6.97% and 7.17% over the past week. Despite this slight decline, the rates remain relatively high compared to historical lows, creating challenges for budget-conscious homebuyers.

The Federal Reserve’s policies continue to play a crucial role in shaping mortgage rates. Recently, the Fed decided to hold the benchmark rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50%, signaling only one rate cut for the rest of the year. This decision suggests that any substantial decline in mortgage rates is unlikely in the near future. The Fed’s cautious approach indicates that significant rate drops might not occur until well into 2025.

A recent study indicates that a majority of homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, need significantly lower rates before they feel confident returning to the market. Ralph McLaughlin, Realtor.com’s senior economist, emphasizes that for inventory-constrained buyers, current mortgage trends will likely maintain the “mortgage rate lock-in effect.” This effect, where homeowners are reluctant to sell and buy new homes at higher rates, is expected to persist until at least the end of the year.

The latest inflation data has shown signs of moderation, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy costs, climbing just 0.2% monthly in May—the lowest since last June. Overall inflation has decelerated year-over-year compared to April. While this news initially caused a dip in mortgage rates, the Fed’s subsequent announcement to hold rates steady tempered this effect. The Fed now projects one rate cut for the rest of the year, a reduction from previous expectations.

Fannie Mae’s homebuyer sentiment survey from May reveals that only one in four Americans expect mortgage rates to decrease over the next 12 months. In contrast, more than 30% of respondents anticipate that rates will rise. This sentiment has led to a new low in consumer confidence, driven by the overall lack of purchase affordability.

Despite current challenges, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon for homebuyers. Economists at Bank of America Global Research predict multiple rate cuts over the next 24 months—four in 2025 and two in 2026. These cuts, in increments of 25 basis points, could bring rates down to between 3.50% and 3.75% by 2026. This long-term outlook provides a potential path to more affordable mortgage rates, but significant declines in the short term remain unlikely.

Last week saw a brief surge in mortgage application volume, increasing by 16% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This surge was primarily driven by a short-lived drop in daily rates, which hovered near 7%. New mortgage applications increased by 9%, though they remain 12% lower than the same week last year. Refinancing activity also saw a notable increase of 28% week-over-week, particularly among VA borrowers who took advantage of the lower rates.

At the current average rate of 6.95%, a homebuyer would pay approximately $1,600 monthly on a $300,000 home with a 20% down payment, according to the Yahoo Finance mortgage calculator. This cost highlights the ongoing challenge of affordability for many potential buyers.

While the slight dip in mortgage rates below 7% offers a small reprieve for homebuyers, significant declines are still months away. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach, coupled with persistent inflation concerns, suggests that substantial rate reductions are unlikely until 2025. Homebuyers must navigate these challenges with careful planning and realistic expectations, while keeping an eye on long-term trends that may eventually bring relief.

Yellen Sounds Alarm on “Impossible” Housing Market for First-Time Buyers

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

For investors looking at hot housing sectors, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just aired some cold hard truths about the brutal landscape facing first-time homebuyers. In testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, the former Federal Reserve chair minced no words in declaring it “almost impossible” for those trying to get that coveted first rung on the property ladder.

“With house prices having gone up and now with much higher interest and mortgage rates, it’s almost impossible for first-time buyers,” Yellen bluntly stated, citing the twin pains of home price appreciation and elevated financing costs.

Her candid assessment encapsulates the scorching environment scorching the dreams of millions of aspiring homeowners. After a pandemic-driven housing boom, the headwinds buffeting the entry-level market show no signs of abating:

Prices at Nosebleed Heights
According to Zillow data, a staggering 550 U.S. cities now have median home values topping the once-unthinkable $1 million mark. California accounts for nearly 40% of those cities, with the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas ground zero for pricing outliers.

Mortgage Rates Kryptonite
The days of locking in a 30-year mortgage under 3% now seem quaint relics. As the Fed jacked rates higher to tame inflation, average mortgage rates soared past 7% as of early 2024 – more than double pandemic-era levels. For cash-strapped first-timers, that translates into over $600 extra in monthly payments for a $400,000 loan.

Inventory Drought
Perhaps the biggest obstacle is critically low supply pipelines thanks to existing homeowners being financially “locked-in” to their low mortgage rates, as Yellen described it. They are disincentivized from listing and moving to avoid securing a new mortgage at higher rates – leading to a self-perpetuating cycle.

Rapacious Investor Competition
Even affordable starter homes in short supply are being ravenously consumed by investors. A Redfin report showed they purchased over 1 in 4 U.S. homes in Q4 2023 alone. With hedge funds and private equity firms devoting massive capital to residential real estate, it’s perhaps the biggest pricing pressure of all.

Yellen herself acknowledged the troubling dynamic, stating “We know that affordable housing and starter homes are an area where we really need to do a lot to increase availability.”

So what is being done to combat the brutal affordability crisis freezing out so many first-time buyers? The Biden administration has floated a novel twin tax credit concept:

  • A $10,000 credit for first-time homebuyers could provide vital funds for larger down payments to offset higher rates.
  • A separate $10,000 credit incentivizing existing owners to sell their “starter home” when upsizing could modestly relieve inventory shortages.

Some lawmakers are taking a more forceful approach – moving to punish corporate real estate investors gobbling up residential properties. Proposals include revoking depreciation and mortgage interest deductions, penalty taxes, and even mandates to divest rental home portfolios over time.

Whether such measures gain traction remains to be seen. But there’s no denying the current state of housing markets represents something close to a perfect storm for strivers trying to get in the game.

As an investor, the opportunities are evident amid the obstacles:

  • A generational housing shortage should keep upward pressure on asset pricing
  • Financing challenges and inventory scarcity create huge pent-up demand tailwinds for homebuilders
  • Solutions like single-family rental operators may temporarily ease entry-level pressures
  • And any public-private innovations that help reignite first-time buyer demand could be lucrative portfolio additions

Because for now – as Janet Yellen so starkly articulated – breaking into the housing market as a newcomer is indeed “almost impossible” based on today’s towering barriers. Sometimes the frank truth is the first step towards meaningful investment opportunities.

New Home Sales Rebound: A Boost for Small Caps and Economic Outlook

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In the realm of economic indicators, few metrics capture the pulse of consumer sentiment and economic vitality quite like new home sales. The recent surge in new home sales in the United States, hitting a six-month high in March, is a beacon of hope amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainties. This uptick not only signifies resilience in the housing sector but also holds implications for small-cap investors and the broader macroeconomic landscape.

The Commerce Department’s latest report delivered a bullish narrative, showcasing an impressive 8.8% increase in new home sales, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate soaring to 693,000 units. This surge, attributed partly to the persistent shortage of previously owned homes on the market, underscores the robust demand for housing despite challenges such as escalating mortgage rates.

For small-cap investors, this uptick in new home sales is more than just a statistical blip—it’s a promising indicator of consumer confidence and economic buoyancy. Strong housing demand typically translates into a flurry of economic activity, benefiting small-cap companies operating in sectors ranging from home construction and building materials to home improvement and real estate services.

However, amid the celebratory numbers lies a cautionary tale. The accompanying rise in the median house price, coupled with the upward trajectory of mortgage rates, paints a nuanced picture. While higher home prices can fuel revenues for homebuilders and related industries, concerns about affordability may cast a shadow on overall housing market growth, impacting small caps tethered to this sector.

Zooming out to the macroeconomic panorama, the implications of these housing market dynamics are far-reaching. A robust housing sector is not just about building and selling homes; it’s a linchpin of economic stability, contributing significantly to GDP growth, job creation, and wealth accumulation.

Economists and savvy investors are keeping a keen eye on how these developments unfold in the coming months. The recent uptick in mortgage rates, coupled with a slight dip in mortgage applications, hints at potential headwinds for new home sales. This cautious sentiment underscores the delicate dance between market exuberance and economic prudence.

Regional nuances in new home sales add depth to the narrative. While all four U.S. regions experienced increases in new home sales, sentiments among single-family homebuilders remain cautious. Buyers, in turn, are treading carefully, weighing the impact of rising interest rates on their purchasing power.

For small-cap aficionados navigating this dynamic terrain, a balanced approach is the name of the game. While opportunities may abound in sectors riding the housing market wave, strategic risk management and diversified portfolios are non-negotiables in today’s evolving economic landscape.

In summary, the resurgence in new home sales injects a dose of optimism into the market narrative. However, prudence tempered with opportunism will be the guiding ethos for investors eyeing the small-cap space amid shifting economic tides.

Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated as Inflation Persists

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Mortgage rates have climbed over the past year, hovering around 7% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. This is significantly higher than the 3% rates seen during the pandemic in 2021. Rates are being pushed higher by several key factors.

Inflation has been the main driver of increased borrowing costs. The consumer price index rose 7.5% in January 2024 compared to a year earlier. While this was down slightly from December, inflation remains stubbornly high. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflation. This has directly led to higher mortgage rates.

As the Fed Funds rate has climbed from near zero to around 5%, mortgage rates have followed. Additional Fed rate hikes are expected this year as well, keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates. Though inflation eased slightly in January, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. The central bank has signaled they will maintain restrictive monetary policy until inflation is under control. This means mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated in the near term.

Another factor pushing rates higher is the winding down of the Fed’s bond buying program, known as quantitative easing. For the past two years, the Fed purchased Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities on a monthly basis. This helped keep rates low by increasing demand. With these purchases stopped, upward pressure builds on rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also influences mortgage rates. As this yield has climbed from 1.5% to around 4% over the past year, mortgage rates have moved higher as well. Investors demand greater returns on long-term bonds as inflation eats away at fixed income. This in turn pushes mortgage rates higher.

With mortgage rates elevated, the housing market is feeling the effects. Home sales have slowed significantly as higher rates reduce buyer affordability. Prices are also starting to moderate after rapid gains the past two years. Housing inventory is rising while buyer demand falls. This should bring more balance to the housing market after it overheated during the pandemic.

For potential homebuyers, elevated rates make purchasing more expensive. Compared to 3% rates last year, the monthly mortgage payment on a median priced home is around 60% higher at current 7% rates. This prices out many buyers, especially first-time homebuyers. Households looking to move up in home size also face much higher financing costs.

Those able to buy may shift to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) to get lower initial rates. But ARMs carry risk as rates can rise substantially after the fixed period. Lower priced homes and smaller mortgages are in greater demand. Refinancing has also dropped off sharply as existing homeowners already locked in historically low rates.

There is hope that mortgage rates could decline later this year if inflation continues easing. However, most experts expect rates to remain above 6% at least through 2024 until inflation is clearly curtailed. This will require the Fed to maintain their aggressive stance. For those able to buy at current rates, refinancing in the future is likely if rates fall. But higher rates look to be the reality for 2024.

September Sees Record Lows in Home Sales

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The US housing market continues to show signs of a significant downturn, with existing home sales in September dropping to the slowest pace since October 2010. This marks a 15.4% decline compared to September 2022, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The sharp drop in home sales highlights how rising mortgage rates and declining affordability are severely impacting the housing market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate now sits around 8%, more than double what it was just a year ago. This rapid surge in borrowing costs has priced many buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers.

Only 27% of September home sales went to first-time buyers, well below the historical norm of 40%. Many simply cannot afford today’s high home prices and mortgage payments. As a result, sales activity has fallen dramatically. The current sales pace of 3.96 million units annualized is down markedly from over 6 million just two years ago, when rates were around 3%.

At the same time, inventory remains extremely tight. There were just 1.13 million existing homes available for sale at the end of September, an over 8% decline from last year. This persistent shortage of homes for sale continues to put upward pressure on prices. The median sales price in September hit $394,300, up 2.8% from a year ago.

While higher prices are squeezing buyers, they are not denting demand enough to significantly expand inventory. Many current homeowners are reluctant to sell and give up their ultra-low mortgage rates. This dynamic is keeping the market undersupplied, even as sales cool.

Not all buyers are impacted equally by higher rates. Sales have held up better on the upper end of the market, while declining sharply for mid-priced and affordable homes. This divergence reflects that high-end buyers often have more financial flexibility, including the ability to purchase in cash.

All-cash sales represented 29% of transactions in September, up notably from 22% a year earlier. Wealthier buyers with financial assets can better absorb higher borrowing costs. In contrast, first-time buyers and middle-income Americans are being squeezed the most by rate hikes.

Looking ahead, the housing slowdown is likely to persist and potentially worsen. Mortgage applications are now at their lowest level since 1995, signaling very weak demand ahead. And while inflation has eased slightly, the Federal Reserve is still expected to continue raising interest rates further to combat it.

Higher rates mean reduced affordability and housing activity, especially if home prices remain elevated due to limited inventory. This perfect storm in the housing market points to significant headwinds for the broader economy going forward.

The housing sector has historically been a key driver of economic growth in the US. But with sales and construction activity slowing substantially, it may act as a drag on GDP growth in coming quarters. Combined with declining affordability, fewer homes being purchased also means less spending on furniture, renovations, and other housing-related items.

Some analysts believe the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes will ultimately tip the economy into a recession. The depth of the housing market downturn so far this year does not bode well from a macroeconomic perspective. It signals households are pulling back materially on major purchases, which could contribute to a broader economic contraction.

While no significant recovery is expected in the near-term, lower demand could eventually help rebalance the market. As sales moderate, competitive bidding may ease, taking some pressure off prices. And if economic conditions worsen substantially, the Fed may again reverse course on interest rates. But for now, the housing sector appears poised for more weakness ahead. Homebuyers and investors should brace for ongoing volatility and uncertainty.

Rising Housing Costs Drive Consumer Inflation Even Higher in September

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in September due largely to intensifying shelter costs, putting further pressure on household budgets and keeping the Federal Reserve on high alert.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% last month after rising 0.1% in August, the Labor Department reported Thursday. On an annual basis, prices were up 3.7% through September.

Both the monthly and yearly inflation rates exceeded economist forecasts of 0.3% and 3.6% respectively.

The higher than anticipated inflation extends the squeeze on consumers in the form of elevated prices for essentials like food, housing, and transportation. It also keeps the Fed under the microscope as officials debate further interest rate hikes to cool demand and restrain prices.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Surging Shelter Costs in Focus

The main driver behind the inflation uptick in September was shelter costs. The shelter index, which includes rent and owners’ equivalent rent, jumped 0.6% for the month. Shelter costs also posted the largest yearly gain at 7.2%.

On a monthly basis, shelter accounted for over half of the total increase in CPI. Surging rents and housing costs reflect pandemic trends like strong demand amid limited supply.

“Just because the rate of inflation is stable for now doesn’t mean its weight isn’t increasing every month on family budgets,” noted Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “That shelter and food costs rose particularly is especially painful.”

Energy and Food Costs Also Climb

While shelter led the inflation surge, other categories saw notable increases as well in September. Energy costs rose 1.5% led by gasoline, fuel oil, and natural gas. Food prices gained 0.2% for the third consecutive month, with a 6% jump in food away from home.

On an annual basis, energy costs were down 0.5% but food was up 3.7% year-over-year through September.

Used vehicle prices declined 2.5% in September but new vehicle costs rose 0.3%. Overall, transportation services inflation eased to 0.9% annually in September from 9.5% in August.

Wage Growth Lags Inflation

Rising consumer costs continue to outpace income growth, squeezing household budgets. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% in September, not enough to keep pace with the 0.4% inflation rate.

That caused real average hourly earnings to fall 0.2% last month. On a yearly basis, real wages were up only 0.5% through September—a fraction of the 3.7% inflation rate over that period.

American consumers have relied more heavily on savings and credit to maintain spending amid high inflation. But rising borrowing costs could limit their ability to sustain that trend.

Fed Still Focused on Inflation Fight

The hotter-than-expected CPI print keeps the Fed anchored on inflation worries. Though annual inflation has eased from over 9% in June, the 3.7% rate remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points in both September and November, pushing the federal funds rate to a range of 3-3.25%. Markets expect another 50-75 basis point hike in December.

Treasury yields surged following the CPI report, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns. Persistently high shelter and food inflation could spur the Fed to stick to its aggressive rate hike path into 2023.

Taming inflation remains the Fed’s number one priority, even at the risk of slowing economic growth. The latest CPI data shows they still have work to do on that front.

All eyes will now turn to the October and November inflation reports heading into the pivotal December policy meeting. Further hotter-than-expected readings could force the Fed’s hand on more supersized rate hikes aimed at cooling demand and prices across the economy.

Mortgage Rates Hit 23-Year High

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Mortgage rates crossed the 7% threshold this past week, as the 30-year fixed rate hit 7.31% according to Freddie Mac data. This marks the highest level for mortgage rates since late 2000.

The implications extend far beyond the housing market alone. The sharp rise in rates stands to impact the stock market, economic growth, and investor sentiment through various channels.

For stock investors, higher mortgage rates pose risks of slower economic growth and falling profits for rate-sensitive sectors. Housing is a major component of GDP, so a pullback in home sales and construction activity would diminish economic output.

Slower home sales also mean less revenue for homebuilders, real estate brokers, mortgage lenders, and home furnishing retailers. With housing accounting for 15-18% of economic activity, associated industries make up a sizable chunk of the stock market.

A housing slowdown would likely hit sectors such as homebuilders, building materials, home improvement retailers, and home furnishing companies the hardest. Financial stocks could also face challenges as mortgage origination and refinancing drop off.

Broader economic weakness resulting from reduced consumer spending power would likely spillover to impact earnings across a wide swath of companies and market sectors. Investors may rotate to more defensive stocks if growth concerns escalate.

Higher rates also signal tightening financial conditions, which historically leads to increased stock market volatility and investor unease. Between inflation cutting into incomes and higher debt servicing costs, consumers have less discretionary income to sustain spending.

Reduced consumer spending has a knock-on effect of slowing economic growth. If rate hikes intended to fight inflation go too far, it raises the specter of an economic contraction or recession down the line.

For bond investors, rising rates eat into prices of existing fixed income securities. Bonds become less attractive compared to newly issued debt paying higher yields. Investors may need to explore options like floating rate bonds and shorter duration to mitigate rate impacts.

Rate-sensitive assets that did well in recent years as rates fell may come under pressure. Real estate, utilities, long-duration bonds, and growth stocks with high valuations are more negatively affected by rising rate environments.

Meanwhile, cash becomes comparatively more attractive as yields on savings accounts and money market funds tick higher. Investors may turn to cash while awaiting clarity on inflation and rates.

The Fed has emphasized its commitment to bringing inflation down even as growth takes a hit. That points to further rate hikes ahead, meaning mortgage rates likely have room to climb higher still.

Whether the Fed can orchestrate a soft landing remains to be seen. But until rate hikes moderate, investors should brace for market volatility and economic uncertainty.

Rising mortgage rates provide yet another reason for investors to ensure their portfolios are properly diversified. Maintaining some allocation to defensive stocks and income plays can help smooth out risk during periods of higher volatility.

While outlooks call for slower growth, staying invested with a long-term perspective is typically better than market timing. Patience and prudent risk management will be virtues for investors in navigating markets in the year ahead.