Tag: Economy

US Consumer Sentiment Falls Again as Prices Rise and Incomes Weaken

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

US consumer sentiment weakened again in November, underscoring the growing strain households feel from higher prices, softer income growth, and persistent anxiety about job security. Despite a modest improvement after the government shutdown ended, consumers remain broadly pessimistic and increasingly concerned about their financial future.

According to the University of Michigan’s final November reading, overall sentiment ticked up slightly to 51 after briefly plunging earlier in the month. But even with the rebound, confidence remains well below October’s level and sits nearly 30% lower than a year ago. For many Americans, the temporary resolution of the government funding crisis brought some short-term relief, but not enough to offset the everyday pressure of rising costs and weaker purchasing power.

One major factor weighing on households is continued inflation. While expectations for year-ahead inflation edged down to 4.5%, most consumers say they still feel the squeeze from higher prices for essentials like food, rent, utilities, and healthcare. The anticipated jump in health insurance premiums heading into 2026 has added another layer of financial worry, especially for families already stretched thin.

Incomes are another pain point. Many workers report that their earnings aren’t keeping up with rising costs, leading to a decline of about 15% in consumers’ assessments of their current financial situation. Even individuals who felt secure earlier in the fall have grown more cautious as the economic outlook becomes increasingly uncertain.

Labor-market concerns are also accelerating. The unemployment rate is higher than a year ago, and layoffs across several industries have heightened anxiety. Nearly seven out of ten consumers now expect unemployment to rise over the next year — more than double the share from this time in 2024. Many also feel more vulnerable personally, with the perceived likelihood of job loss rising to its highest point since 2020.

The mood among younger adults is even more troubling. For Americans aged 18 to 34, expectations around job loss over the next five years have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade. Younger workers, many of whom are early in their careers or managing student loan burdens, are increasingly uneasy about their career stability and long-term financial prospects.

Even wealthier households are not immune. Consumers with large stock holdings initially saw sentiment improve earlier in November, but market declines wiped out those gains. Volatile markets combined with the broader economic uncertainty have contributed to renewed caution among investors and higher-income earners.

Overall, the November data paints a picture of an economy where the shutdown may have ended, but its psychological impact lingers. With government funding only secured through January, uncertainty about future disruptions remains. Households are preparing for the possibility of more instability at a time when budgets are already strained.

The combination of stubborn inflation, weakening income growth, elevated recession fears, and unstable policy conditions continues to erode Americans’ confidence. While the economy has avoided a sharp downturn so far, consumers appear increasingly doubtful that the months ahead will bring meaningful improvement.

The Most Unhelpful Jobs Report of the Year Complicates the Fed’s Next Move

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve’s December policy decision has become significantly more complicated following the release of the long-delayed September jobs report. After weeks of uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, economists were hoping the data would offer at least some directional clarity. Instead, the report delivered a contradictory mix of signals that has left markets, analysts, and policymakers struggling to determine whether the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut — or simply holding steady.

On the surface, the headline numbers appeared encouraging. Employers added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double what forecasters had anticipated. In a typical environment, that level of job creation would be considered firm evidence that the labor market still retains momentum.

However, the rest of the report painted a more complicated — and in some ways troubling — picture. The unemployment rate nudged higher to 4.4%, and on an unrounded basis reached 4.44%, inching close to the 4.5% threshold that some Fed officials view as a sign that labor conditions may be softening. Layered on top of that is the fact that this data is nearly two months old. Because of the shutdown, the Labor Department will not release an October report at all, and the November report will not be available until after the Fed meets in mid-December. As a result, policymakers are attempting to make a major policy decision with limited, stale visibility.

Another challenge is the unusually choppy pattern of job creation over the last several months. Hiring dipped into negative territory in June, rebounded in July, contracted again in August after revisions, and then jumped higher in September. This volatility makes it difficult to determine whether the labor market is gradually slowing or simply experiencing temporary fluctuations after several years of rapid post-pandemic recovery.

A significant structural factor shaping recent trends is the slowdown in immigration. With fewer new workers entering the labor force, the “break-even” number of jobs needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate has decreased to an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 per month. Since September’s job gains far exceeded that range, it indicates that demand for labor remains healthier than the rising unemployment rate alone suggests.

Sector-level data also highlights a mixed landscape. Industries such as healthcare and hospitality continue to show notable strength, reflecting persistent consumer demand and structural labor shortages. Meanwhile, other sectors have begun to lose momentum, reinforcing the idea that the labor market is no longer uniformly strong but instead is becoming more uneven.

Overall, the economy has added an average of 76,000 jobs per month so far in 2025 — a pace that aligns with the lower growth environment of a cooling, but still functioning, labor market.

Inside the Fed, opinions remain divided. Some policymakers believe easing rates further is consistent with guiding monetary policy back toward a neutral setting. Others see the recent uptick in unemployment, combined with limited fresh data, as reasons to pause. Financial markets reflect this uncertainty as well, with traders now assigning roughly even odds to a December rate cut.

For now, the September report provides more ambiguity than clarity. Without current data and with mixed signals across key indicators, the Fed enters its next policy meeting navigating perhaps its murkiest environment of the year.

U.S. Job Openings Fall to Lowest Level Since Early 2021 as Hiring Slows

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Job openings across the United States have fallen to their lowest level in more than four and a half years, signaling that the once-resilient labor market is losing momentum. According to data from Indeed, employment opportunities dropped sharply in October as the prolonged government shutdown weighed on business confidence and hiring activity.

Indeed’s Job Postings Index fell to 101.9 as of October 24, marking the weakest reading since early February 2021. The index, which uses February 2020 as a baseline of 100, has slipped 0.5% since the beginning of October and is down about 3.5% since mid-August. The decline extends a downward trend that began earlier in the year, reflecting growing caution among employers amid economic uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.

Under normal circumstances, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would have released its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) this week, a closely watched gauge of labor market health. However, with the federal government still partially shut down, economists have turned to private data sources like Indeed for real-time insights. The latest official JOLTS report, released in August, showed job openings at 7.23 million—down 7% from January and roughly flat compared with July—confirming that hiring appetite has been cooling for months.

Indeed’s internal dashboard also points to a softening in wage growth alongside the decline in job postings. The firm’s data shows advertised wages rising 2.5% year-over-year in August, compared to a 3.4% pace in January. Slower wage gains suggest that employers are facing less competition for workers than they did during the post-pandemic hiring boom, when labor shortages and rapid inflation pushed pay rates sharply higher.

The Federal Reserve has taken note of the cooling trend. Last week, the Fed’s policy-setting committee voted 10–2 to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, lowering the target range to 3.75%–4%. Officials cited growing risks to the labor market as a key reason for easing policy, even as inflation remains nearly a full percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted the slowdown in a recent speech, noting that data from Indeed and other private sources show hiring activity weakening in real time. “We’re seeing a clear deceleration in job postings,” she said. “There’s reason to be concerned because unemployment has ticked up slightly over the summer.”

Economists, unable to rely on the usual stream of government data, have estimated that the October jobs report—had it been released—would have shown a net loss of around 60,000 positions and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

Taken together, the latest indicators suggest that the U.S. job market, while still historically strong, is shifting from its rapid post-pandemic recovery into a slower, more cautious phase. If the current trends continue, policymakers may face increasing pressure to balance inflation control with the need to prevent a deeper slowdown in employment growth.

U.S. Consumer Spending Surges in August, Inflation Pressures Mount

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in August, reinforcing the strength of the economy even as inflation continued to edge higher. The Commerce Department reported that household expenditures advanced 0.6% last month, surpassing forecasts of a 0.5% gain and extending July’s 0.5% increase. The results suggest that the economy maintained much of its momentum from the second quarter, when growth hit its fastest pace in nearly two years.

Households increased spending across both services and goods. Travel and leisure categories saw notable gains, with more Americans booking airline tickets, staying in hotels, and dining out. Spending at restaurants and bars remained elevated, while recreational services also benefited from strong demand.

Goods purchases rose 0.8% in August, driven by sales of recreational equipment, clothing, and gasoline. Services spending, which accounts for the bulk of household consumption, advanced 0.5%, in line with the previous month.

This broad-based spending has been supported by wealth gains among higher-income households. Rising stock prices and elevated home values have bolstered balance sheets, allowing affluent consumers to maintain strong levels of discretionary spending. By contrast, lower-income families continue to face challenges from higher food and energy costs, as well as upcoming reductions in federal nutrition assistance programs.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, climbed 0.3% in August following a 0.2% gain in July. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 2.7%, the largest annual increase since February. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, remained elevated at 2.9%.

The acceleration in prices reflects the lingering impact of tariffs and supply constraints. Many businesses have so far absorbed part of the higher costs rather than pass them directly to consumers, but economists caution that this trend is unlikely to continue indefinitely. As inventories accumulated before tariffs are depleted, broader price pressures could emerge.

Personal income rose 0.4% in August, with a significant portion of the gain stemming from government transfer payments. Wage growth was comparatively modest at 0.3%, highlighting persistent weakness in the labor market. Job creation has slowed considerably in recent months due to policy uncertainty and tighter immigration rules, which have limited labor supply.

This divergence between resilient spending and softer hiring raises questions about the durability of consumption in the months ahead. While households are still fueling growth today, slower income gains could eventually restrain demand, especially if inflation remains elevated.

The Atlanta Fed currently projects third-quarter GDP growth of 3.3%, down slightly from the 3.8% expansion recorded in the second quarter. Analysts expect consumer spending to cool toward the end of the year as higher prices weigh on purchasing power and government support programs wind down.

For now, household consumption remains the key driver of U.S. economic expansion. Whether this momentum can continue in the face of rising inflation and labor market challenges will be a central focus for policymakers and investors heading into the final quarter of 2025.

US Jobs Revision Wipes Out 911,000 Positions, Raising Alarms About Economic Momentum

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. labor market just got a reality check — and it’s a sobering one. A government revision revealed that the economy employed 911,000 fewer people as of March 2025 than initially reported, exposing a far weaker job market than policymakers and the public had believed. The new data, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shows the slowdown began months before the summer headlines of weakening payrolls and rising unemployment.

The revision, covering the 12 months between March 2024 and March 2025, slashes average monthly job gains from an already modest 147,000 to just 71,000. For context, that’s less than half the pace originally reported and a figure that suggests the labor market was cooling long before the recent downturn. Economists had anticipated downward revisions, but the scale was startling — many expected about 700,000 fewer jobs, while the actual figure exceeded even the most pessimistic forecasts.

Industries that once looked like pillars of resilience proved more fragile under scrutiny. Leisure and hospitality was revised down by 176,000 jobs, erasing gains that had been touted as proof of post-pandemic recovery strength. Professional and business services followed with a downward revision of 158,000 jobs, signaling weakness in white-collar employment as well. Overall, the private sector absorbed the brunt, losing 880,000 jobs in the revision, while government payrolls were adjusted down by 31,000.

These annual revisions are routine, as the BLS incorporates more accurate data like unemployment insurance filings. But the magnitude of recent adjustments has been unusually large, feeding political tensions and raising questions about the reliability of initial reporting. Last year’s revision cut 818,000 jobs, landing right in the middle of the presidential campaign and fueling criticism from then-candidate Donald Trump.

Now, President Trump is in office and once again pointing to the BLS, accusing it of producing “phony” numbers. He has already dismissed the agency’s former commissioner and nominated E.J. Antoni, a vocal critic from the Heritage Foundation, to lead the bureau. Antoni’s confirmation battle will likely intensify after this revision, as the administration pushes for overhauls in how labor data is collected and reported.

Beyond politics, the numbers matter for the Federal Reserve, which is under pressure to respond to slowing job growth and signs of economic fragility. Trump and his allies argue Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been “too late” in cutting rates, claiming the central bank clung too rigidly to its 2% inflation target at the expense of growth. The White House could now use these revisions as further evidence to press its case.

For millions of Americans, though, the revisions underscore a more personal reality. A job market once presented as resilient is now revealed to have been much shakier. With fewer jobs than thought, weaker household income growth, and rising uncertainty, the labor market is entering a precarious phase. The debate in Washington may revolve around statistics, but the impact is being felt in homes and businesses across the country.

Gold Steadies as Traders Await US Inflation Data, Fed Independence in Focus

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold prices gained on Thursday, August 28, 2025, as investors positioned ahead of the latest U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, a closely watched inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve. The data, due Friday, is expected to show the fastest annual price acceleration in five months. Stronger inflation could complicate the central bank’s ability to cut rates despite growing market expectations for policy easing.

The metal rose 0.6% to $3,416.85 an ounce in New York trading, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.3%, while silver, platinum, and palladium also advanced.

Markets are still pricing in over an 80% chance of a September rate cut, according to swaps data. Sentiment strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled openness to easing at the central bank’s recent policy symposium. However, Powell stressed that uncertainty around both inflation and labor market trends remains high, particularly as new tariffs from President Donald Trump begin to filter through the economy.

Lower interest rates tend to be supportive of gold because the metal carries no yield. With borrowing costs expected to decline, gold has retained a firm bid despite consolidating below its record high above $3,500 an ounce reached in April.

Beyond inflation data, investors are monitoring political developments that could impact the Fed’s independence. Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit challenging President Trump’s attempt to remove her from the board over allegations of past mortgage fraud. If Trump succeeds, he could reshape the central bank with a majority of appointees more aligned with his calls for lower rates.

Markets fear that such a shift could undermine the Fed’s credibility and spark concerns about future inflation, further enhancing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.

Gold’s gains come against a backdrop of global uncertainties. Trade frictions, geopolitical tensions, and central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar continue to provide long-term support. Exchange-traded fund inflows into gold remain steady, signaling persistent investor appetite for protection against macroeconomic risks.

While gold has largely traded within a range since April’s peak, analysts suggest that upcoming inflation data and political developments around the Fed could serve as near-term catalysts.

July CPI Report Keeps Fed in Tight Spot as Rate-Cut Debate Heats Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

A fresh reading on inflation in July has left the Federal Reserve facing a difficult policy choice: act quickly to support a cooling labor market or hold steady to ensure inflation returns to target. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out food and energy, rose 3.1% year over year in July — above economists’ 3.0% forecast and up from 2.9% in June. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased 0.3%, matching expectations. Headline CPI rose 2.7% year over year, a touch below the 2.8% consensus.

The mixed picture — a slightly softer headline print but hotter core inflation — complicates the Fed’s September decision. Markets, however, have already swung toward loosening: futures traders are pricing in roughly a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September. That reflects growing concern about recent labor-market weakness and the potential political impetus for easing.

Employment data released earlier this month deepened that concern. The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and May and June payrolls were revised sharply lower by a combined 258,000. The three-month average for job growth is now about 35,000 — a pace many economists view as consistent with a significant cooling in hiring. Those revisions have amplified calls from some quarters of the Fed to move sooner on rate cuts to cushion the labor market.

At the same time, services inflation, the historically stickier component of the CPI, moved higher in July after moderating earlier in the year. Certain goods categories such as furniture and footwear also showed renewed upward pressure. Because core CPI and core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) tend to move together, the stronger core CPI reading raises the risk that core PCE will also show another above-target reading in coming reports, analysts say.

Policy makers at the Fed remain divided. Several regional presidents and officials have emphasized caution, arguing that elevated inflation — still more than a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% goal on a core basis — counsels patience. Others have pointed to the softening employment trend as a compelling reason to begin easing policy soon. That split was evident in recent public remarks from Fed officials, who ranged from urging a patient approach to signaling readiness to cut if labor-market deterioration continues.

The White House has also weighed in, increasing political pressure on the Fed to move. That intervention adds another dimension to an already fraught decision, though policymakers stress their commitment to independence and data-driven decisions.

Looking ahead, the Fed will watch August inflation components closely along with incoming employment and consumer spending data. If services inflation continues to run hot, the case for holding rates rises; if job growth further weakens and labor-market indicators soften, arguments for a September cut will strengthen.

For now, the July CPI leaves the Fed between two difficult paths: risk undermining the inflation fight by cutting too soon, or risk further labor-market deterioration by waiting. The choice in September will hinge on the next tranche of inflation and jobs data — and on how policymakers weigh those competing risks.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs After Strong GDP Data as Fed Decision Looms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected economic growth reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate stance, even amid growing political pressure and global market sensitivities.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.368%, reflecting rising investor confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy. The 2-year and 30-year yields also increased, closing at 3.904% and 4.904%, respectively. The moves followed a sharp rebound in second-quarter GDP, which showed the economy growing at an annualized rate of 3% — well above forecasts and reversing a 0.5% decline from the first quarter.

This robust data supports the case for keeping rates steady, at least in the near term, as the Federal Reserve continues to weigh inflation trends, labor market resilience, and long-term growth prospects. The Fed is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5% during today’s announcement, but all eyes are on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for insight into what comes next.

Adding complexity to the current environment is an ongoing effort by former President Donald Trump to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates. Trump has criticized Powell’s leadership and floated the idea of replacing him in a potential second term. Despite this political noise, bond markets appear to be looking past the rhetoric, focusing instead on macroeconomic fundamentals. The continued rise in the 10-year yield suggests investors believe any leadership changes at the Fed would have little immediate impact on market direction.

Moreover, foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries could react to political instability or aggressive fiscal policy by offloading U.S. debt. This would push yields even higher, particularly if confidence in long-term economic or monetary policy erodes. The bond market’s sensitivity to global sentiment means that political pressure campaigns are unlikely to meaningfully influence interest rates without broader structural changes.

Adding further pressure is the threat of new tariffs, a cornerstone of Trump’s proposed economic agenda. Tariffs on imported goods would likely raise costs across the board, fueling inflation and reducing purchasing power domestically. As the U.S. imports many essential goods, any significant tariffs would shift costs onto consumers and businesses. This could complicate the Fed’s effort to keep core inflation within its 2% to 2.5% target range and delay any potential interest rate cuts.

For now, financial markets are signaling confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage the current environment, even if political rhetoric intensifies. Investors appear to be aligning their expectations with strong economic indicators and current inflation data rather than political speculation.

As the Federal Reserve’s decision looms, the upward movement in Treasury yields reflects not just optimism about U.S. growth, but also a more complex web of factors — from global capital flows and inflation expectations to political interference and international trade risks. The road ahead for monetary policy remains uncertain, but the market’s message is clear: economic fundamentals, not politics, will drive yields.

U.S. Labor Market Adds 139,000 Jobs in May as Unemployment Holds Steady at 4.2%

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, topping forecasts; unemployment steady at 4.2%.
– Hourly earnings up 0.4% monthly, 3.9% annually.
– Job revisions and rising claims point to cooling momentum.

The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience in May, adding 139,000 nonfarm payroll jobs as the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job gains exceeded economists’ expectations of 126,000, offering a modest sign of strength in an economy still grappling with new trade tensions and broader signs of slowing momentum.

While job growth in May beat forecasts, revisions to previous months suggest some underlying softness. April’s job gains were revised down to 147,000 from an initially reported 177,000, while March’s total was also lowered. Combined, the two-month revisions show the economy added 95,000 fewer jobs than previously thought.

“We’re seeing a softening in the labor market,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “That’s undeniable. But it’s not a retrenchment in the labor market. And that’s what was feared.”

Despite the mixed signals, Wall Street responded positively to the report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite each rose about 1% in early trading, as investors took comfort in the continued job growth and the prospect of stable interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

Wages continued to show strength in May, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% from a year ago. Both figures came in above economist expectations, suggesting that inflationary pressure from wage growth may persist. At the same time, the labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 62.4% from 62.6% in April, indicating fewer Americans are actively looking for work or are available to work.

The jobs report covered the week of May 12, capturing the early economic reaction to President Trump’s recently enacted 10% baseline tariffs on imports from various countries, as well as the initial phase of a 90-day pause in U.S.-China trade escalation. While the immediate labor market impact appears muted, economists warn that the inflationary effects of tariffs may begin to surface in the coming months.

“The May employment report was mixed but doesn’t alter our assessment of the labor market or the economy,” wrote Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a research note. “We also remain comfortable with the forecast for the Federal Reserve to wait until December before cutting interest rates as the inflation impact of tariffs is still coming and will be more visible this summer.”

Other indicators released earlier in the week point to a labor market under increasing strain. ADP reported that the private sector added just 37,000 jobs in May—the lowest total in more than two years. In addition, initial weekly unemployment claims rose to their highest level since October 2024, while continuing claims hovered near a four-year high.

Taken together, the data suggest a labor market that, while no longer red-hot, remains stable for now. However, with trade policy uncertainties and inflation concerns on the horizon, economists will be closely watching for further signs of cooling in the months ahead.

Inflation Eases to 2.1% in April, Offering Potential Breathing Room to Fed

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– April’s inflation rate slowed to 2.1%, lower than expected, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
– Consumer spending grew just 0.2%, while the savings rate jumped to 4.9%.
– Core PCE inflation held at 2.5% annually, supporting a wait-and-see approach from policymakers.

Inflation cooled in April, offering a potential signal that price pressures may be stabilizing and possibly giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility in managing interest rates. According to data released Friday by the Commerce Department, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — rose just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual rate down to 2.1%. That figure is slightly below expectations and marks the lowest inflation reading of the year so far.

Core PCE, which strips out the more volatile food and energy categories and is considered a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, also increased just 0.1% in April. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation stood at 2.5%, slightly under the anticipated 2.6%.

These subdued inflation figures arrive amid a backdrop of softer consumer spending and a jump in personal savings. Consumer spending rose just 0.2% for the month — a sharp slowdown from the 0.7% gain in March. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate surged to 4.9%, its highest level in nearly a year. This suggests that households may be pulling back on discretionary purchases and becoming more cautious with their finances.

The moderation in price increases could provide the Federal Reserve with more breathing room as it considers the trajectory of interest rates. While the Fed has resisted calls for rate cuts amid lingering inflation concerns, a sustained easing trend could support a policy shift later this year. However, the central bank remains wary, particularly as some inflationary risks — such as potential tariff impacts — loom in the background.

Energy prices ticked up by 0.5% in April, while food prices dipped by 0.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver of persistent inflation in recent months, continued to rise at a 0.4% pace. Nonetheless, the overall inflation picture showed clear signs of deceleration.

Notably, personal income climbed by 0.8% in April, well above the 0.3% estimate. This growth in income, paired with higher savings, points to a consumer base that may be more financially resilient than previously thought, even if spending has temporarily cooled.

Markets responded with relative indifference to the inflation data. Stock futures drifted lower and Treasury yields were mixed, as investors weighed the implications for future monetary policy against broader economic uncertainties.

Recent trade tensions — especially President Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs and the ongoing legal back-and-forth over their legitimacy — add complexity to the outlook. While the direct inflationary impact of tariffs has so far been muted, economists warn that higher input costs could feed into prices later this year if tariff policies persist.

Looking ahead, the Fed will be closely monitoring inflation trends, consumer behavior, and labor market developments. If price pressures remain tame and growth conditions warrant, the central bank may eventually consider adjusting rates — though for now, caution remains the guiding principle.

U.S. GDP Contracts in Q1 as Tariff-Driven Import Surge Disrupts Growth

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3%, driven by a historic 41.3% surge in imports as businesses rushed to front-load goods ahead of new Trump-era tariffs.
– While consumer spending and business investment grew, rising inflation and policy uncertainty cloud near-term growth prospects.
– Elevated inflation and softening growth raise the stakes for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, with potential implications for rate cuts.

​The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of 2025, shrinking at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday. The headline miss was driven largely by a record-breaking surge in imports, as companies raced to secure goods before a new wave of tariffs took effect under President Trump’s trade policy agenda.

This marked the first negative GDP print since early 2022 and diverged sharply from Wall Street forecasts, which had anticipated modest growth. The main culprit: a 41.3% quarterly spike in imports, with goods imports alone climbing over 50%. Since imports subtract from gross domestic product, this front-loading of supply chains delivered a mechanical but powerful hit to the quarter’s output.

While on paper this suggests economic weakness, some analysts argue that the downturn may be short-lived if imports stabilize in coming quarters. “It’s less a collapse in demand and more a reflection of distorted trade timing,” said one economist.

A Conflicting Mix for Markets and the Fed

Despite the GDP drop, consumer spending still advanced 1.8%, though this was down from the previous quarter’s 4% gain. Business investment saw strong momentum, up 21.9%, driven by firms increasing equipment spending — again, likely an effort to beat tariff hikes. On the downside, federal government spending fell 5.1%, continuing a recent pullback in public sector outlays.

Inflation data added another wrinkle to the economic picture. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.6% in the quarter. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, jumped 3.5%. These hotter-than-expected figures could make the Fed more cautious about cutting rates despite emerging signs of slower growth.

For small-cap and micro-cap investors, this mixed data environment adds complexity. On one hand, tariff-driven disruptions and rising input costs may squeeze margins for smaller firms with less pricing power. On the other, a potential pivot by the Fed toward easing — should growth remain weak — could lower borrowing costs and boost liquidity in risk assets.

Tariff Uncertainty and Market Sentiment

Markets are already reacting to the policy noise. Stock futures dipped on the GDP miss, while Treasury yields rose slightly, pricing in the inflation risk. Meanwhile, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff strategy — including broad-based 10% levies and sector-specific duties — remains in flux as negotiations continue. The president has promised a manufacturing revival, but business leaders warn that volatility in trade rules could delay investment and hiring.

From a small-cap perspective, volatility can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it creates valuation dislocations and buying opportunities. On the other, it adds risk for companies with fragile supply chains or tight capital access. Investors may want to watch domestically focused firms with strong balance sheets and limited exposure to global inputs.

Looking Ahead

With the labor market softening — job openings recently fell to a near four-year low — and inflation still elevated, the Federal Reserve faces a high-stakes balancing act. All eyes now turn to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for a clearer picture of economic momentum heading into Q2.

Consumer Confidence Crumbles as Job Market Cools and Inflation Fears Mount

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– Consumer confidence fell to 86 in April, its lowest since early 2020.
– Job openings declined to a four-year low, with inflation expectations hitting 7%.
– Short-term economic outlook dropped sharply, signaling rising recession fears.

US consumer confidence took a sharp hit in April, falling for the fifth consecutive month and hitting its lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid growing anxieties around job security and inflation, data released Tuesday paints a sobering picture of how consumers view the economy — and their personal financial futures — under the growing shadow of President Trump’s trade escalation.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86 in April from a revised 92.9 in March, falling short of economist expectations. Most striking was the steep drop in the Expectations Index, which gauges consumers’ short-term outlook for income, employment, and business conditions. It fell to 54.4 — a level not seen since 2011 and well below the recession-warning threshold of 80.

“Consumers were very much surprised by the severity of those tariffs,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at the Conference Board. “They actually expect tariffs to affect their finances and their jobs.”

April’s consumer survey, which overlapped with President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, reflects mounting public concern about how those policies will ripple through household budgets and the broader economy. Inflation expectations surged, with the average 12-month forecast rising to 7%, the highest in over two years.

Labor market sentiment, too, is souring. The share of respondents expecting fewer jobs in the next six months jumped to 32.1%, matching levels not seen since April 2009 during the Great Recession. That pessimism is echoed in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which revealed that job openings slid to 7.19 million in March — the lowest since late 2020. While hiring held steady at 5.4 million, the ratio of openings to unemployed workers dropped, signaling reduced employer appetite for expansion.

“The hiring rate remains stuck at relatively low levels, which is usually consistent with a higher level of unemployment,” said Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten, noting that the current pace of layoffs has artificially kept the unemployment rate in check.

Worryingly, consumer outlooks on income have also turned negative for the first time in five years. Fewer people now expect their income to grow, suggesting that inflation and employment concerns are affecting personal financial sentiment, not just macroeconomic views.

Still, perceptions of present-day conditions — such as current job availability and business activity — remain relatively stable. This disconnect between the present and future suggests a market caught between hope and unease, with near-term fears driven by rising costs and a softening labor environment.

Looking ahead, the April jobs report due Friday will offer a more detailed snapshot. Economists expect it to show a slowdown, with 133,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. If confirmed, that would mark a meaningful shift from the stronger figures seen earlier this year.

For now, both consumers and economists are bracing for what may come next — from potential rate cuts to new fiscal shocks — in a climate increasingly shaped by political volatility and global economic uncertainty.

New Home Sales Surge in March Despite Mounting Cost Pressures

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– New home sales rose 7.4% in March, driven by increased inventory and strong spring demand, especially in the South.
– Tariffs on steel and aluminum are expected to raise construction costs, with builders warning of price hikes later in 2025.
– Mortgage rates near 7% continue to limit affordability, but buyer activity remains resilient due to builder incentives and more supply.

New home sales in the U.S. saw a notable boost in March, as builders responded to seasonal demand with more inventory, despite challenges from rising mortgage rates and looming tariff-related cost hikes. The spring buying season got a lift, with the Census Bureau reporting a 7.4% jump in new home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000 units — handily beating Bloomberg’s forecast of 685,000.

The increase reflects a strong start to what is typically the busiest time of the year for housing. Supply also played a critical role. Inventory rose to 503,000 new homes for sale at the end of March, the highest level since 2007, giving buyers more options amid a tight resale market. This bump in supply helped spur activity, especially in the South, where sales jumped at the fastest pace in nearly four years. The Midwest also saw gains, while activity declined in the West and Northeast.

The housing market’s momentum comes despite ongoing headwinds. Mortgage rates, which hover near 7%, continue to limit affordability for many buyers. These rates follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed recently amid investor unease about U.S. fiscal policy and political volatility. President Trump’s tariff policies and recent public threats to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have created further market anxiety, causing bond yields to rise and adding pressure on borrowing costs.

High interest rates aren’t the only affordability hurdle. The average new home sales price rose 1% in March to $497,700, while the median price dropped 7.5% to $403,600. This pricing mix suggests more movement in entry-level housing, likely a response to strong demand from first-time buyers and younger households.

Still, looming tariff pressures threaten to raise construction costs and squeeze builder margins. During a recent earnings call, PulteGroup warned that tariffs could increase construction expenses by about 1% in the back half of 2025, translating to an average of $5,000 more per home. CEO Ryan Marshall said the added costs would impact “every single price point and consumer group,” raising concerns about future pricing flexibility.

Taylor Morrison, another major builder, echoed these concerns, forecasting low single-digit housing cost inflation for the year. The culprit: U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which are integral to HVAC systems, cable infrastructure, and other construction materials. These added costs are expected to hit hardest in Q4, as builders begin new projects under higher input prices.

To sustain buyer interest, many builders have leaned on incentives — including mortgage rate buydowns and design upgrades — but the staying power of this strategy remains uncertain. As cost pressures grow and rate cuts remain off the table for now, builders may have to choose between profit margins and affordability.

Despite these challenges, the resilience in March’s new home sales shows that the housing market still has underlying strength. For now, buyers appear willing to move forward when supply meets their needs — even in the face of higher borrowing costs.