The GEO Group (GEO) – New USMS Transportation Contract


Tuesday, June 17, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

USMS Contract. The GEO Group, through its GEO Transport subsidiary, has entered into a new 5-year contract, including option periods, with the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) for the provision of secure transportation and contract detention officer services across three service regions covering 26 federal judicial districts and spanning 14 states. The new contract highlights the Company’s diversified service platform, in our view, which provides the Company with numerous growth avenues.

Impact. The new contract is expected to generate up to approximately $147 million over the five-year period, or up to approximately $29 million in annualized revenues per full-year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Managed-Only services contracts, which average approximately 15%.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – An Acquisition


Thursday, June 12, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Acquisition. CoreCivic is expanding its Safety Segment with the proposed acquisition of The Farmville Detention Center in Farmville, Virginia, about 60 miles west of Richmond. Constructed in 2010, Farmville is a 736-bed facility that provides transportation, care, and civil detention services to adult male noncitizens through an Intergovernmental Service Agreement between Prince Edward County, Virginia, and U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement (“ICE”), which expires in March 2029.

Details. CoreCivic is paying $67 million for Farmville, or about $91,000 per bed. The transaction is expected to be funded with cash on hand and borrowings under the Company’s revolving credit facility. The acquisition is expected to close effective July 1st and will add approximately $40 million of incremental revenue on an annual basis. Using the Safety segment’s average 2024 operating margin, Farmville could add nearly $10 million of segment operating income on an annual basis.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Some More Good News


Wednesday, June 11, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Favorable Adelanto Outcome. The GEO Group received some more good news yesterday with the U.S. District Court, Central District of California, approving a settlement that allows for immediate full intake at GEO’s 1,940-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center in California. Recall, previous court rulings had limited the use of Adelanto based on the then prevailing COVID-19 conditions.

Another Uplift. Under a January 20025 ruling, the Court had allowed the facility to increase its population cap to 475 detainees. At full occupancy and under the current contract, GEO would see an uplift in revenue of some $31 million, with margins consistent with other Company-owned Secure Service facilities. Adding in Monday’s D. Ray James announcement, GEO could be looking at $100 million of additional revenue and approximately $26 million of net operating income on an annual basis.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights


Monday, June 09, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noble Virtual Conference. CoreCivic CFO David Garfinkle and Vice President Finance Brian Hammonds presented at the Noble Virtual Conference. Highlights included increased demand, long-term trends, and return of capital. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/corecivic-cxw-noble-capital-markets-virtual-conference-replay

Increased Demand. As regular readers know, CoreCivic has seen increased demand for its services from ICE. The Company already has received new awards for beds and expects to re-open currently idled facilities for ICE. Increased occupancy could drive significant earnings growth. Occupancy in 1Q25 was 77%, still below the low 80% range in 2018/19. The Company showed various illustrative potential for increased demand that could add $73-$131 million of additional NOI.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – An ISAP Extension?


Monday, June 02, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Enter Negotiations for Extension. On Friday, it was announced the government intends to enter into negotiations with GEO’s BI subsidiary for a one year extension of the ISAP program, which is currently effective through July 31, 2025. We would view an extension of this program as a significant positive for GEO in both the near-term and longer term.

A Positive Future? Acknowledging Friday’s release is limited to extending the current contract for a year, the verbiage used by the government contracting agency highlights the moat GEO has built around the business, suggesting the Company should be in the catbird’s seat for a longer term renewal. For example, the government states, “Market research conducted by the Office of Acquisition Management revealed that there is only one responsible source because the current contractor is uniquely positioned to maintain existing operations of the program without transitioning active program participants between contractor solutions.”


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – A Look into the Fourth Quarter


Friday, February 28, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q Results. Revenues for the fourth quarter slightly declined to $607.7 million from $608.3 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $108.0 million, down from $129.0 million last year. Net income was $15.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, down from $25.2 million, or $0.17 per share, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.13 per diluted share versus $0.29 per share the prior year. Earnings and adjusted EBITDA were below expectations, primarily due to higher general and administrative expenses incurred during the fourth quarter of 2024.

New ICE Contract. Also announced was the award of a 15-year, fixed-price contract by ICE to provide support services for the establishment of a federal immigration processing center at the company-owned, 1,000 bed Delaney Hall facility in Newark, NJ. The contract is expected to generate in excess of $60 million in its first full year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Secure Services facilities. The idle facility is expected to be activated in 2Q 2025, with revenues and earnings from the new contract normalizing during the second half of 2025.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – ICE Adding Capacity


Friday, February 28, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Additional Capacity. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced the Company entered into contract modifications with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) at various facilities for up to an additional 1,036 beds. We view this as the first step by ICE to add capacity in its efforts to enforce President Trump’s crackdown on undocumented migrants. We anticipate additional contracting activity that will help satisfy ICE’s growing needs.

Details. ICE entered into contract modifications to add capacity for up to a total of 784 detainees at CoreCivic’s 2,016-bed Northeast Ohio Correctional Center, its 1,072-bed Nevada Southern Detention Center, and its 1,600-bed Cimarron Correctional Facility in Oklahoma. In addition, CoreCivic has obtained a contract modification to specify that ICE may use up to 252 beds at its 2,672-bed Tallahatchie County Correctional Facility in Mississippi.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – CoreCivic Receives Lease Termination Notice for the California City Correctional Center from the State of California

Research, News, and Market Data on CXW

December 6, 2022

BRENTWOOD, Tenn., Dec. 06, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) (CoreCivic or the Company) announced today it received notice from the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) of its intent to terminate the lease agreement for the company-owned, 2,560-bed California City Correctional Center (CCCC) by March 31, 2024, due to the state’s declining inmate population.

The lease agreement is fully funded through the current fiscal year ending June 30, 2023. Funding for the lease of the CCCC for the 2024 fiscal year, beginning July 1, 2023, will be determined in the California legislature in the first half of 2023 as part of the annual budget process. As part of this process the Company plans to engage with the state of California regarding the continued utilization of the CCCC by the CDCR due to its modern infrastructure, efficient design, and comprehensive maintenance program.

Since the lease of the CCCC commenced in 2013, the Company has continually invested in facility enhancements to ensure the CCCC is operating at its optimum performance to the benefit of the facility’s residents, the correctional professionals employed at the CCCC and CDCR. In order to support the Company’s environmental sustainability commitments, the Company recently procured a 100% renewable electricity supply for the facility. The Company believes these factors, along with the advanced age of many of the state of California’s other correctional facilities, support the continued lease of the CCCC by the CDCR.

Rental revenue generated from the CDCR at the CCCC for year ended December 31, 2021, and nine months ended September 30, 2022, was $33.3 million and $25.7 million, respectively, and is reported in the CoreCivic Properties business segment. CoreCivic is very proud of its opportunity over the past nine years to help the state of California successfully manage through its historic challenges with prison overcrowding. The Company believes its relationship with the state of California has demonstrated the value and flexibility it provides to governments across its full range of solutions, including through innovative lease agreements like the one at CCCC.

About CoreCivic

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. CoreCivic provides a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. CoreCivic is the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believes it is the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. CoreCivic has been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. CoreCivic’s employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains statements as to CoreCivic’s beliefs and expectations of the outcome of future events that are “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. These include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties associated with the timing of the lease termination, which could potentially occur prior to March 31, 2024, and the Company’s intention to engage with the state of California regarding the continued utilization of the CCCC by the CDCR.

CoreCivic takes no responsibility for updating the information contained in this press release following the date hereof to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date hereof or the occurrence of unanticipated events or for any changes or modifications made to this press release or the information contained herein by any third-parties, including, but not limited to, any wire or internet services.

Contact:Investors: Cameron Hopewell – Managing Director, Investor Relations – (615) 263-3024
Financial Media: David Gutierrez, Dresner Corporate Services – (312) 780-7204