Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – An Acquisition, a Contract, and More Opportunity


Friday, October 06, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Acquisition. Wednesday night, Kratos filed an S-3 disclosing the acquisition of Sierra Technical Services, Inc. (“STS”) for 866,026 shares, with an additional 979,038 shares subject to an earnout. Based on Wednesday’s $14.81 closing price, the first share tranche is valued at $12.8 million, with the earnout portion valued at an additional $14.5 million.

Award. In early August, STS was named as a “major subcontractor” for a $77.2 million total value award from the Pentagon’s Test Resources Management Center. The program is a re-start of a previous program to develop a fighter-sized stealthy target drone that can serve as a stand-in for advanced adversary combat jets and their electronic warfare capabilities in particular. Significantly, according to the award, “Upon successful completion of this prototype effort, the Government anticipates that a follow-on production effort may be awarded via either contract or transaction, without the use of competitive procedures if the participants in this transaction successfully complete the prototype project as awarded.”


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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – A CFO Change


Wednesday, October 04, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A CFO Transition. V2X announced this week that the Company has appointed Shawn Mural as its Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (CFO). Mr. Mural will oversee all finance and accounting functions, including controllership, finance operations, planning, tax, treasury, investor relations, and corporate development. The appointment follows Susan Lynch’s retirement, which was effective on September 28, 2023.

Background on Shawn Mural. Mr. Mural has extensive experience in the old Raytheon. He joins V2X management from RTX Corporation and its subsidiaries, where he served most recently as Vice President of Finance and CFO of Raytheon. He provides experience in various leadership roles, as well as managing large integration and operational excellence-related activities in his 24 years at RTX. We believe Mr. Mural’s long tenure at Raytheon, where a good chunk of V2X’s business came from, will be a positive going forward.


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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – A Solid 2Q23 Beat


Wednesday, August 09, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another Excellent Quarter. Driven by expansion of existing programs, new awards, and recompete wins, V2X reported excellent results for 2Q23. Revenue of $977.9 million was up 10.2% on a pro forma basis, and well above our $905 million forecast. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $76.4 million, versus our $64.5 million estimate. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.01 compared to our $0.74 estimate.

Opportunity Remains Robust. V2X was awarded approximately $2.1 billion of awards in the quarter, with a book-to-bill of 2.2x. Backlog grew 10% to $13 billion. The Company has $5 billion of bids awaiting award and we believe V2X is well positioned to win its fair share. The overall market opportunity exceeds $160 billion.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Reports Second Quarter Results


Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q23 Results. Results came in above expectations. Revenue totaled $256.9 million, up 14.6% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $21.6 million, up from $17.7 million in 2Q22. GAAP EPS loss was $0.02 and adjusted EPS was $0.09, compared to a EPS loss of $0.04 and adjusted EPS of $0.07, respectively, a year ago. We had forecasted $235 million, $16.5 million, $(0.03), and $0.06, respectively.

Solid Organic Growth In KGS. The Government Solutions Segment saw overall revenue increase 22.1% to $204.8 million. Organic growth for KGS grew 17.1% in the quarter, with organic growth across all businesses within KGS and notable increases in the Space and Satellite, Turbine Technologies, Microwave products, and C5ISR units.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Awarded $95 Million Unmanned Target Contract


Monday, July 10, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another Award. On Friday, the Department of Defense announced Kratos has been awarded a $95 million firm-fixed-price contract for fixed-wing, subscale, jet-propelled aerial, unmanned target systems. The U.S. Army was the contracting unit. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of July 6, 2028.

Further Proof. As Kratos CEO Eric DeMarco noted in the 1Q23 conference call, “Kratos’ target drone business is performing well, driven by Kratos’ producing and delivering what we consider to be the highest performance threat representative jet drone systems in the world, with our primary customers including the United States Navy, Air Force and Army. The global recapitalization of strategic weapon systems and the requirement to test and train on these weapon systems is providing a strong macro level catalyst for Kratos’ target drone business.” We view Friday’s award as further confirmation of the positive momentum in the target drone business.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – A Successful Test and Expansion of Capabilities


Friday, June 23, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Busy Week. Kratos had two announcements this week, including the Company’s successful static test of its new Zeus 1 rocket motor at Aerojet Rocketdyne’s Camden, Arkansas facility and an expansion of the Company’s Space Domain Awareness (SDA) network locations into India.

Zeus 1 Motor. Kratos’ Zeus 1 motor is an affordable commercial solid rocket motor (SRM) in development, with the SRM being able to operate as launch vehicle stages for Kratos’ research, hypersonic, ballistic missile target, and “other” vehicles. The preliminary hardware and data inspection of the test showed the robustness of the motor design and its applicability for multiple customer applications. The Zeus 1 is one of two solid rocket motors being developed and funded, with the larger Zeus 2 motor scheduled for static test later this year.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – $46.7 Million Navy Award


Tuesday, June 06, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Navy Award. Yesterday, Kratos announced it was awarded a contract by the Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD) for thermo-mechanical and aerothermal ground testing of thermal protection system materials in ballistic reentry and reentry-like environments in its Kratos SRE business unit in Birmingham, Alabama. The five-year contract includes options with a total value up to $46.7 million, with an initial award of $8.6 million under a cost-plus-fixed-fee contract.

Details. Under the award, Kratos will test materials supporting technical efforts for the U.S. and the U.K. with direct oversight from the NSWCDD Reentry Systems Office. The contract enables Kratos SRE to conduct ground testing of thermal protection materials at external ground test facilities and produce flight hardware for the Navy. It requires the unique ability to test and collect data at maximum temperatures of 5,500 degrees Fahrenheit to properly test materials in reentry-like environments.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

V2X, Inc. (VVX) – Training Systems Acquisition IV


Monday, June 05, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

On the List. Last week, V2X was one of three dozen firms awarded a spot on the $32.5 billion Training Systems Acquisition IV ID/IQ contract to provide for the analysis, design, development, production, installation, integration, test, and sustainment for Air Force training systems encompassing complex aircrew, maintenance, and system-specific training systems in support of warfighter training at operating locations worldwide. Work will be performed in the contiguous U.S. and worldwide, and is expected to be completed by May 31, 2033.

More Opportunity. TSA IV is a significant upgrade over the $20.9 billion ceiling under TSA III, but, even more importantly, V2X can leverage the combined Vectrus/Vertex capabilities to bid on a wider range of task orders under the contract. According to V2X, the old Raytheon Technology and Training Solutions segment (purchased by Vertex in 2021) had a seat on TSA III but did not have any work.


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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – A Good Start to the Year


Thursday, May 11, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

An Excellent Quarter. Driven by outstanding results in the INDOPACOM region, V2X reported excellent results for 1Q23. With the Talisman exercise moving “to the left,” INDOPACOM revenue increased 300% year-over-year and 18% sequentially. Continued expansion on existing programs, contribution from new awards, and successful re-competes, all added to top line growth.

1Q23 Results. Revenue came in at $943.5 million, up 12% y-o-y on a pro forma basis, and exceeded our $830 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $68 million, or a 7.2% margin, compared to our estimate of $54.8 million. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.80 versus our projection of $0.62.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Solid 1Q23 Results; Growth Opportunities Expanding


Monday, May 08, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results. Results came in at the high end of guidance. Revenue totaled $231.8 million, up 18.1% y-o-y. Organic growth was 12%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $17 million, up from $13.8 million in 1Q22. GAAP EPS loss was $0.05 and adjusted EPS net income was $0.06, compared to a net loss of $0.13 and adjusted EPS of $0.04, respectively, a year ago. We had forecasted $220 million, $15.5 million, $(0.03), and $0.07, respectively.

Expanding Opportunity Set. Kratos’ opportunity set continues to expand. As part of the 5-year defense spend plan, the USAF has requested approximately $6 billion reflecting an increased prioritization with it being reported that the Air Force is looking to ultimately procure up to 2,000 drone systems. The Navy has been reported as stating they envision up to 60% of the future Navy Air Wing being comprised of drones.


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Haynes International (HAYN) – Favorable Outlook Driven by a Strong Order Backlog


Friday, May 05, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Second quarter net income increased 45.6% to $12.3 million, or $0.96 per share (EPS), compared to the prior year period and rose 59.6% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. We had forecast net income of $12.9 million or $1.02 per share. Revenues of $152.8 million increased 30.5% on a year-over-year basis and grew 15.2% compared to the prior quarter. The estimated impact from raw material volatility during the quarter resulted in a $1.7 million headwind that compressed gross margin by 1.1% to 20.2%. Gross profit of $30.9 million was modestly higher than our estimate of $30.1 million although SG&A and interest expenses were also greater than our projections.

Growing order backlog. Orders during the quarter resulted in a record backlog of $446.7 million as of March 31 and represented a 9.4% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 59.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.9% during the second quarter to approximately 14.1 million pounds and increased 33.1% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Another Award


Monday, April 10, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Award. On Friday, the Department of Defense, through its daily contract award release, announced Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems has been awarded a shared $400 million ceiling, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for research and development for the Advanced Aerospace Systems Technology Research (AASTR) program. This contract has multiple awardees to be awarded at different dates. Work under the contract is expected to be complete by April 7, 2030.

What is AASTR? The primary objective of the program is to conduct research toward the development, demonstration, integration, and transition of new aerospace vehicle technologies, designs, and integrated systems that will provide advanced capabilities to the Department of the Air Force. The program will support the Aerospace Systems Directorate’s core competency areas of Aerospace Vehicles; Control Sciences; High Speed Systems; Turbine Engines; and Systems Integration and Flight Test.


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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – A $440 Million Contract from the Navy


Thursday, April 06, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A New Award. Yesterday, V2X was awarded a maintenance contract from the U.S. Navy to provide aircraft maintenance support for Naval Test Wing Pacific (NTWP) VX-30 and VX-31 at Point Mugu, CA and China Lake, CA. The maintenance will consist of flightline maintenance, logistics, and technical support for the two weapons development and test squadrons. The contract is for $440 million and has a seven year period that will end in 2030.

Expanding into the Navy. The specific contract awarded yesterday is the sister to the contract given by the Navy towards Naval Test Wing Atlantic, awarded in April of 2022, also won by Vertex. With the merger of Vertex and Vectrus, the Navy accounted for 24.7% of total revenue for 2022. With both Naval Test Wings contracted under V2X along with a stronger revenue base towards the Navy following the merger, we believe V2X is well positioned to continue to win additional work with the Navy.


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