Category: Markets

The Power of Patient Investing: Small Caps, Big Returns

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Patient small cap investors view market downturns as chances to acquire quality businesses at discounted prices.
– Thorough analysis of small cap companies can uncover exceptional businesses with strong fundamentals before they attract mainstream attention.
– The greatest advantage in small cap investing comes from maintaining conviction during periods of underperformance that drive away less patient investors.

In a market often dominated by mega-cap tech stocks and headline-grabbing trends, small cap investing remains a powerful avenue for those willing to embrace patience as their primary strategy. While these smaller companies may lack the immediate name recognition of their larger counterparts, they offer distinct advantages to investors who can weather short-term volatility in pursuit of long-term gains.

The Virtue of Patience in Small Cap Investing

The true edge in small cap investing isn’t found in rapid trading or timing market swings—it’s discovered through patient capital deployment and a steadfast focus on fundamentals. Small cap stocks, typically defined as companies with market capitalizations between $300 million and $2 billion, often experience greater price volatility than large caps. This volatility, rather than representing inherent risk, actually creates opportunities for patient investors.

When market sentiment shifts and institutional investors flee to perceived safety, small caps frequently bear the brunt of the selling pressure. This creates temporary dislocations between price and value that patient investors can explore. While others panic during downturns, disciplined small cap investors recognize these moments as rare opportunities to acquire ownership in quality businesses at discounted prices.

Filtering the Noise to Find Value

Today’s financial ecosystem bombards investors with constant commentary, predictions, and “expert” opinions. Patient small cap investors develop the crucial skill of filtering this noise to identify genuine value. They understand that short-term price movements often reflect temporary factors rather than fundamental business changes.

The ability to separate market noise from meaningful information allows these investors to maintain conviction in their small cap holdings through inevitable periods of underperformance. They recognize that small companies need time to execute their business plans, expand their market presence, and ultimately deliver value to shareholders.

The Power of Thorough Equity Research

In the small cap universe, thorough equity research becomes an invaluable competitive advantage. While large caps are constantly scrutinized by hundreds of analysts, dedicated research into smaller companies can uncover hidden gems before they appear on the institutional radar. Patient investors who commit to comprehensive due diligence often identify promising businesses with robust fundamentals that remain undervalued.

This research advantage becomes especially powerful when investors develop expertise in specific sectors or industries. By understanding the competitive landscape, technological trends, and regulatory environments that shape small cap businesses, patient investors can accurately assess both risks and growth catalysts that casual market participants might miss. This deep research foundation also provides the conviction necessary to hold positions through inevitable market fluctuations.

Embracing the Long View

The most successful small cap investors share a common trait: they evaluate investments through a multi-year lens rather than quarterly results. They understand that compound growth in small businesses can eventually translate into extraordinary investment returns. A company growing earnings at 15-20% annually will double its profits approximately every four years—a powerful driver of long-term stock performance that patient investors can capture.

The Psychological Challenge

Perhaps the greatest challenge in small cap investing isn’t analytical but psychological. It requires the fortitude to remain invested when markets turn negative, when positions move against you, and when the temptation to chase better-performing assets becomes strongest. Patient investors understand that their edge comes precisely from accepting short-term discomfort that others refuse to endure.

For those willing to cultivate patience, small cap investing continues to offer one of the most compelling risk-reward propositions in public markets. By focusing on long-term business value rather than short-term price fluctuations, investors can position themselves to achieve returns that make the occasional storms worth weathering.

GM Boosts Shareholder Returns with $6B Buyback and Dividend Hike

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– GM announced a $6B share buyback and a 25% dividend increase to $0.15 per share
– Investors reacted positively, pushing GM stock up over 5% in morning trading
– Company maintains strong R&D spending of $8B+ while navigating potential tariff challenges

General Motors announced a significant boost to shareholder returns on Wednesday, unveiling a new $6 billion share repurchase program and increasing its quarterly dividend. The move comes just weeks after investors expressed disappointment when the automaker’s Q4 earnings call failed to include new capital return initiatives.

GM’s quarterly dividend will rise by $0.03 to $0.15 per share, marking the company’s first dividend increase since 2023. The $6 billion share repurchase authorization includes plans for a $2 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program to be implemented in the near term.

Investors responded positively to the announcement, sending GM shares up more than 5% in morning trading to $49.22.

CEO Mary Barra emphasized the company’s strong execution across all three pillars of its capital allocation strategy. These include reinvesting for profitable growth, maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet, and returning capital to shareholders.

This latest buyback program follows GM’s previous $6 billion share repurchase plan and the $10 billion ASR program introduced in late 2023. The earlier initiatives coincided with a 33% dividend increase that took effect in January 2024.

During GM’s most recent earnings call, CFO Paul Jacobson had indicated the company would explore prudent ways to expand shareholder returns. In today’s announcement, he expressed confidence in the business plan and balance sheet strength, noting GM would remain agile in responding to potential policy changes.

Despite the increased focus on shareholder returns, GM confirmed its commitment to continued investment in its core business. The company expects 2025 capital spending to remain between $10-11 billion, including investments in battery manufacturing joint ventures. Research and product development spending is projected to exceed $8 billion for the year.

For fiscal 2025, GM has forecast profits between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion, with diluted and adjusted earnings per share of $11-12. The company noted these projections don’t account for potential impacts from tariffs that might be implemented by the Trump administration on imported vehicles or parts.

While GM is clearly a large-cap stock, its shareholder-friendly actions could signal a broader trend that might eventually benefit small-cap stocks and the Russell 2000 index. Historically, when large corporations increase dividends and buybacks, it often reflects growing confidence in economic conditions that eventually filters down to smaller companies. The Russell 2000 has underperformed larger indices in recent years, but increased capital returns across the market could indicate improving liquidity conditions that typically benefit smaller firms more dramatically.

Additionally, GM’s ability to maintain robust capital returns while facing potential tariff challenges demonstrates corporate resilience that could reassure investors about smaller domestic manufacturers’ prospects. Many Russell 2000 companies are more domestically focused than their large-cap counterparts, potentially insulating them from international trade disruptions.

The shareholder return increases demonstrate GM’s financial strength despite ongoing challenges in the automotive industry, including electrification costs, competition, and potential trade policy changes. The company’s willingness to boost returns while maintaining substantial investments in future technologies suggests management’s confidence in its long-term business strategy.

As GM navigates the evolving automotive landscape, this balanced approach to capital allocation appears designed to keep both long-term investors and those seeking immediate returns satisfied while the company continues its transition toward an electric future.

Dow Plunges 800 Points as Market Sell-Off Escalates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The Dow fell 805 points, with a two-day loss exceeding 1,200 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined.
– Economic data signaled weaker consumer sentiment, a slowing housing market, and increased inflation concerns.
– Investors moved toward safer assets, boosting bonds and defensive stocks, while major indexes fell below key technical levels.

Stocks sold off on Friday as new U.S. economic data raised investor concerns over slowing growth and persistent inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 805 points, or 1.8%, bringing its two-day losses to more than 1,200 points. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped over 2% as investors moved away from equities in search of safer assets.

United Health led the Dow’s decline, plunging 7% following a Wall Street Journal report that the insurer is under investigation by the Justice Department. The stock was on track for its worst day since March 2020. Meanwhile, broader economic indicators pointed to growing uncertainty. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 64.7 in January, a sharper decline than expected, reflecting rising inflation concerns. Additionally, the 5-year inflation outlook in the survey hit 3.5%, its highest level since 1995.

Housing market data also contributed to the negative sentiment, with existing home sales dropping more than anticipated to 4.08 million units. The U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI) also showed signs of weakness, slipping into contraction territory for February. These factors compounded fears that economic conditions may not be as strong as previously believed.

Investors sought refuge in traditionally defensive assets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield declined by 8 basis points to 4.418%, boosting bond prices. The Japanese yen also strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Defensive stocks, including Procter & Gamble, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, and Mondelez, posted gains as investors shifted toward more stable sectors.

Market weakness extended across the week, with the S&P 500 down about 1%, the Dow shedding 2%, and the Nasdaq losing 1.6%. Several factors weighed on stocks, including Walmart’s weaker-than-expected earnings guidance, which sent its stock down 3% on Friday and more than 9% for the week. Inflation concerns and losses in Palantir further pressured the market.

Technical indicators added to the cautious outlook. The Dow and Nasdaq both fell below their 50-day moving averages in afternoon trading. The Dow, down 1.8%, slipped under its 50-day average of 43,695.91 for the first time since Jan. 21, while the Nasdaq, down 2%, dropped below 19,686.10, marking its first break of that level since Feb. 12.

As investors brace for more potential volatility, the focus remains on upcoming economic data and policy developments. With inflationary pressures persisting and uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions, the market’s direction remains uncertain heading into next week.

Job Openings Decline Sharply in December, Falling Below Forecast

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Job openings dropped to 7.6 million in December, the lowest level since September and below the estimated 8 million.
– The decline in openings came despite a net gain of 256,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the month.
– The Federal Reserve monitors job openings as a key indicator of labor market conditions.

The U.S. labor market saw a significant drop in available positions in December, with job openings falling to 7.6 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This figure came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 8 million and marked the lowest level since September.

The decline in openings signals a potential softening in labor demand, even as the broader economy continues to add jobs. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 during the month, but the number of available positions fell by 556,000. As a share of the labor force, openings declined to 4.5%, marking a 0.4 percentage point drop from November.

Several industries saw notable declines in job openings, with professional and business services losing 225,000 positions. Private education and health services recorded a drop of 194,000, while the financial activities sector saw a decrease of 166,000. These losses indicate that some industries may be reassessing hiring plans in response to economic conditions and policy uncertainty.

Despite the drop in job openings, other labor market indicators remained stable. Layoffs for December totaled 1.77 million, down slightly by 29,000. Hiring edged up to 5.46 million, and voluntary quits—a measure of worker confidence—saw a small increase to nearly 3.2 million. Total separations, which include layoffs, quits, and other exits, remained largely unchanged at 5.27 million.

Following the report’s release, major stock market indexes posted gains, while Treasury yields saw mixed movement. Investors appeared to view the data as a sign that the labor market remains resilient, even as job openings decline. A more balanced labor market could provide support for Federal Reserve policymakers considering the timing of future interest rate changes.

The JOLTS report arrives just days ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report for January, which is expected to show an addition of 169,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Federal Reserve officials have been closely watching labor market trends as they assess monetary policy.

Last week, the central bank opted to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. While investors have been hoping for rate cuts, Fed officials have signaled caution, noting that they need more evidence of sustained economic conditions before making policy adjustments. Markets currently anticipate the first rate cut no sooner than June.

Overall, the decline in job openings could be an early sign of a cooling labor market, but steady hiring and stable unemployment suggest the economy is still holding up. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this trend continues and how it may influence the Fed’s next moves on interest

U.S. Economy Shows Resilience with 2.3% Growth Despite Year-End Slowdown

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Consumer spending surged 4.2%, driving overall economic growth
– Full-year GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024 exceeded sustainable growth expectations
– Business investment declined for the first time in two years, signaling potential concerns

The U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in the final quarter of 2024, growing at a 2.3% annual rate despite expectations of a more significant slowdown. While this represents a deceleration from the third quarter’s 3.1% growth, the underlying data reveals a robust economic foundation driven primarily by extraordinary consumer spending.

American consumers, who represent approximately 70% of economic activity, flexed their financial muscle during the holiday season, with spending surging at a 4.2% rate – the highest increase in nearly two years and double the typical pace. This robust consumer behavior served as the primary engine of economic growth, offsetting challenges in other sectors.

The full-year GDP growth for 2024 registered an impressive 2.8%, surpassing economists’ expectations for sustainable growth rates. This performance caps off a remarkable three-year streak of strong economic expansion, following 2.9% growth in 2023 and 2.5% in 2022, highlighting the economy’s post-pandemic resilience.

However, the report wasn’t without its concerns. Business investment experienced its first decline in two years, pointing to ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector. The growth in inventories also slowed significantly, subtracting nearly a full percentage point from the headline GDP figure. Additionally, inflation ticked up to 2.3% in the fourth quarter from 1.5% in the third quarter, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

As the economy transitions under the Trump administration, businesses are weighing potential opportunities against risks. While proposed tax cuts and deregulation could accelerate growth, concerns about potential tariffs and trade retaliation loom over the business community. The Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious stance, putting interest rate cuts on hold as it assesses both inflation trends and the impact of new economic policies.

Government spending contributed positively to growth, rising at a 2.5% rate and adding 0.4 percentage points to GDP. Despite a surprising surge in December’s trade deficit, international trade had minimal impact on the overall GDP figures.

Market analysts are particularly focused on the sustainability of consumer spending patterns as we move into 2025. The robust holiday shopping season, while impressive, has raised questions about whether households can maintain this pace of expenditure, especially given the uptick in inflation and continued high interest rates. Some economists suggest that the strong spending could be partially attributed to consumers drawing down savings accumulated during the pandemic era, a trend that may not be sustainable in the long term.

The labor market’s continued strength remains a crucial factor in maintaining economic momentum. With unemployment rates staying near historic lows and wage growth remaining solid, the foundation for continued consumer spending appears stable. However, the manufacturing sector’s struggles and reduced business investment could eventually impact job creation in these sectors, presenting a potential headwind to the broader economy’s growth trajectory.

Looking ahead, economists project continued growth at or above 2% for 2025, though the exact trajectory will largely depend on policy decisions from the new administration and the Federal Reserve’s response to evolving economic conditions.

Positive Market Sentiment Brings Opportunity to Small and Micro-Cap Investors

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The current market environment is marked by a wave of optimism, creating a fertile ground for small and micro-cap companies to thrive. While the broader market reacts to macroeconomic developments like tariffs and international trade policies, the small and micro-cap space stands apart as a unique opportunity for investors.

Tariffs: Minimal Impact on Small-Cap Companies

One of the key drivers of recent market attention has been the announcement of new tariffs as part of former President Trump’s policies. While these tariffs primarily target international trade and large multinational corporations, their effect on small-cap companies is expected to be minimal. Most small and micro-cap businesses focus on domestic markets, which shields them from the volatility of global trade tensions. This domestic focus positions these companies as a more stable option for investors seeking growth opportunities in uncertain times.

The Benefits of Lower Interest Rates

Another factor fueling positive sentiment in the small-cap space is the current trend of lower interest rates. As borrowing costs decrease, small businesses gain easier access to capital, enabling them to expand operations, invest in new projects, and drive revenue growth. For investors, this creates a virtuous cycle: lower interest rates improve business fundamentals, which in turn boosts the appeal of small-cap stocks. Historically, small-cap companies have outperformed in low-interest-rate environments, and today’s conditions appear no different.

IPO Activity Signals Market Strength

A surge in IPO activity is another indicator of the favorable environment for small and micro-cap companies. New businesses entering the public markets not only reflect broader economic optimism but also generate increased deal flow and investment opportunities within the small-cap space. This uptick in IPOs suggests that entrepreneurs and business leaders are confident in their ability to raise capital and succeed in today’s market, which bodes well for the ecosystem as a whole.

Opportunities in the Current Market Environment

The combination of limited tariff exposure, lower interest rates, and rising IPO activity underscores the abundance of opportunities available in the small and micro-cap marketplace. Investors are increasingly recognizing the potential for strong returns in this sector, particularly as the broader market sentiment remains positive. Unlike larger companies that may struggle with global uncertainties, small-cap firms are well-positioned to capitalize on domestic growth trends.

For investors seeking alpha, this environment offers a chance to identify high-growth companies at attractive valuations. Additionally, the renewed interest in small and micro-cap stocks aligns with the broader market’s appetite for innovation and entrepreneurial ventures. As these companies grow and mature, they provide a dynamic pathway for wealth creation and portfolio diversification.

The current market sentiment is paving the way for small and micro-cap companies to shine. With limited exposure to international trade risks, the tailwind of lower interest rates, and robust IPO activity, the small-cap space is uniquely positioned to benefit from today’s economic conditions. For investors, this environment represents a compelling opportunity to participate in the growth and success of innovative, domestic-focused businesses. As the marketplace evolves, those who seize the moment stand to reap significant rewards

New Inflation Reading Likely Keeps the Fed on Pause for Now

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– December’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month, indicating a slight deceleration in inflation.
– Federal Reserve officials are expected to maintain the current interest rates at the January policy meeting.
– Concerns persist about achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation goal amid uncertainties in fiscal and regulatory policies.

Fresh inflation data released Wednesday is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on pause during its next policy meeting this month, even though a new reading did show some signs of easing.

On a “core” basis, which eliminates the more volatile costs of food and gas, the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.2% over the prior month, a deceleration from November’s 0.3% monthly gain. On an annual basis, prices rose 3.2%. It was the first drop on a core basis after three months of being stuck at 3.3%.

“This latest inflation reading confirms a Fed rate cut skip at the January FOMC meeting,” said EY chief economist Gregory Daco. The new print “won’t change expectations for a pause later this month, but it should curb some of the talk about the Fed potentially raising rates,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The Fed next meets on Jan. 28-29, and investors are nearly unanimous in their view the central bank will leave rates unchanged after reducing them by a full percentage point in late 2024.

“We are making progress on inflation, it’s just very slow,” former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm told Yahoo Finance Wednesday. “Cuts are not coming later this month, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t coming later this year.”

New York Fed president John Williams said after the CPI release that “while I expect that disinflation will progress, it will take time, and the process may well be choppy.” The economic outlook, he added, “remains highly uncertain, especially around potential fiscal, trade, immigration, and regulatory policies” — a reference to possible changes that could happen as part of the incoming Trump administration. Lots of Fed officials in recent weeks have been urging caution on future rate cuts.

In fact, the Fed’s December meeting minutes showed officials believed inflation could take longer than anticipated to reach their 2% goal, citing stickier-than-expected inflation data since past fall and the risks posed by new policies of Trump 2.0. They noted “the likelihood that elevated inflation could be more persistent had increased,” according to the minutes, even though they still expected the Fed to bring inflation down to its 2% goal “over the next few years.” Several members of the Fed even said at that meeting that the disinflationary process may have stalled temporarily or noted the risk that it could.

The elevated inflation concerns help explain why Fed officials in December reduced their estimate of 2025 rate cuts to two from a previous estimate of four. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference where he announced the Fed had cut interest rates by a quarter point following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., December 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque.

Inflation could show new signs of progress in year-over-year comparisons later in 2025’s first quarter since in 2024 inflation spiked back up before declining again. Fed governor Michelle Bowman may be the most worried of the Fed officials, saying last week that she could have backed a pause in interest rates last month but supported a cut as the “last step” in the central bank’s “policy recalibration.”

Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid, a voting FOMC member this year, said, “I believe we are near the point where the economy needs neither restriction nor support, and that policy should be neutral.” Schmid said he is in favor of adjusting rates “gradually,” noting that the strength of the economy allows the Fed to be patient. Boston Fed president Susan Collins, another voting member this year, also called for a gradual approach.

“With policy already closer to a more neutral stance, I view the current nature of uncertainty as calling for a gradual and patient approach to policymaking,” Collins said. But DWS Group head of fixed income George Catrambone said the new numbers released Wednesday provided a “sigh of relief” for the Fed. But there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead, as new policies from the Trump administration may affect the outlook. As to when the Fed may first cut rates in 2025, “if we don’t see it by Jackson Hole, it’s not coming,” Catrambone added, referring to an annual Fed event that takes place in late August.

Yields Ease, Markets Steady as Investors Await Key Inflation Data

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly after lower-than-expected December producer price index (PPI) data.
– Stock markets showed minimal movement as focus remained on upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data and policy uncertainty tied to President-elect Donald Trump.
– Oil prices fell from recent highs, while the dollar index softened.

Treasury yields in the United States edged down on Tuesday following a report showing that producer prices increased just 0.2% month-on-month in December, underperforming the expected 0.3% rise. This marks a slowdown from November’s 0.4% gain. While the PPI data eased immediate inflation concerns, market attention remains fixed on the consumer price index (CPI) report due on Wednesday.

CPI figures are anticipated to reveal consistent monthly inflation at 0.3% for December, with an annual increase to 2.9%, up from 2.7% in November. Market sentiment has been shaped by fears of persistent inflation, amplified by uncertainty surrounding President-elect Trump’s proposed trade and tax policies. Speculation about tariffs ranging from 2% to 5% monthly has added to concerns about potential inflationary pressures.

Market Performance
Stock market activity was muted as traders digested the PPI data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.10%, closing at 42,339.90, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.15% and 0.21%, respectively. The Russell 2000 index, a key indicator for smaller U.S. companies, has seen a decline of roughly 11% since its peak in November.

Internationally, MSCI’s global stock index inched up by 0.14%, while Europe’s STOXX 600 index dipped by 0.11%. With U.S. corporate earnings season kicking off, major banks are expected to report strong quarterly results, driven by increased dealmaking and trading activities.

Treasury Yields and Dollar Movement
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note eased slightly to 4.790%, staying close to its recent 14-month high of 4.805%. Higher yields have weighed on equities, as they make bonds more attractive and raise borrowing costs for companies.

In currency markets, the dollar index fell by 0.1% to 109.31. The euro gained 0.46% to $1.0292, while the dollar strengthened against the yen, rising 0.25% to 157.87.

Oil and Asian Markets
Oil prices retreated after reaching multi-month highs earlier this week. U.S. crude dropped 1.23% to $77.84 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 0.93% to $80.27 per barrel. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index fell 1.8%, dragged down by chip stocks and speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino hinted at a possible rate increase during the central bank’s next policy meeting on January 24, adding to market uncertainty.

With inflation and policy concerns dominating the narrative, investors are likely to remain cautious. The upcoming CPI data and the direction of Trump’s economic agenda are poised to play pivotal roles in shaping market sentiment in the coming weeks.

Dow Rises 200 Points in Christmas Eve Rally, Led by Tech and Semiconductors

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The Dow climbed 200 points (0.5%) on Christmas Eve, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and the Nasdaq gaining 1%, led by Tesla’s 4% jump.
– The Santa Claus rally, a seasonal trend of strong market performance, began, historically delivering a 1.3% average gain for the S&P 500 during this period.
– American Airlines briefly grounded flights due to technical issues, causing disruptions on a key travel day.

The stock market delivered a festive boost on Christmas Eve, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 200 points, or 0.5%, as investors embraced a seasonal rally. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed, gaining nearly 1%, buoyed by strong performances from Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia.

The shortened trading day marked the start of the Santa Claus rally, a historical trend where markets typically perform well in the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted an average gain of 1.3% during this period, significantly above the average seven-day return of 0.3%, according to LPL Research.

Tesla shares jumped 4% on Tuesday, continuing a strong December rally that has seen the stock climb 30% month-to-date. Other tech giants, including Amazon and Nvidia, also contributed to the Nasdaq’s nearly 4% gain this month, with Alphabet up 16% and Apple rising 10%.

The S&P 500 has dipped 0.3% so far in December, while the Dow remains down about 4%, reflecting a mixed month for equities. Despite these broader losses, Tuesday’s rally offered a positive note as investors capitalized on strength in technology and semiconductor stocks.

Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, expressed cautious optimism about the rally on CNBC’s Squawk Box. “There’s a lot of good to think about, but I think at the same time, you want to be restrained in your enthusiasm here because the market has rallied,” Hickey said.

Trading volumes were thin on the holiday-shortened day, with the New York Stock Exchange closing early at 1 p.m. ET and bond markets following suit at 2 p.m. U.S. markets will remain closed Wednesday in observance of Christmas.

Beyond the stock market, American Airlines briefly grounded all flights on Tuesday due to a technical issue, creating disruptions on one of the busiest travel days of the year. The company’s shares experienced fluctuations during the session but recovered by the close.

Investors now look ahead to the remainder of the Santa Claus rally period, seeking to close out 2024 on a positive note. With major tech stocks leading gains and the semiconductor sector showing resilience, the holiday rally could provide much-needed momentum heading into the new year.

Realtors Forecast 6% Mortgage Rates in 2025, Boosting Housing Market Optimism

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– National Association of Realtors forecasts a 6% average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in 2025, boosting housing affordability and demand.
– Housing starts projected at 1.45 million, with single-family units leading growth.
– Median existing home price expected to rise to $410,700, with a 2% annual increase in house prices.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has forecasted that the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will drop to around 6% in 2025, bringing much-needed relief to homebuyers and potentially reviving a sluggish housing market. This rate decrease is expected to make homeownership more accessible for many prospective buyers, helping to stimulate both new housing construction and sales of previously owned homes.

According to the NAR’s latest projections, the housing market will see about 4.5 million existing home sales in 2025, a slight improvement over current levels. House prices are anticipated to rise by approximately 2%, with the median price for an existing home reaching $410,700. This price increase aligns with the general trend in the market, but the forecasted decline in mortgage rates could provide relief to homebuyers struggling with affordability challenges.

In particular, the NAR’s prediction that mortgage rates will stabilize around 6% offers hope to those shut out of the market due to the higher rates seen in recent years. With the current mortgage rate hovering near 7%, many prospective homebuyers have been unable to afford median-priced homes. If rates do indeed fall to 6%, approximately 6.2 million households will be able to afford homes at the median price, giving a much-needed boost to the housing market. This is a stark contrast to the present situation where higher rates have made it difficult for many to qualify for loans, especially first-time buyers.

Over the past few years, the housing market has been affected by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, which increased borrowing costs and led to a slowdown in home sales. Additionally, the so-called “rate-lock” effect has worsened the supply crunch. Many homeowners with mortgage rates below 5% have been reluctant to list their homes for sale, fearing they won’t be able to find a similarly low rate on a new home. As a result, the market has faced limited inventory, which has driven up home prices and further strained affordability.

To address the lack of available homes, builders have focused on constructing smaller homes, which have appealed to buyers seeking more affordable options. This has led to an increase in new home sales, which are expected to continue rising in 2025, with the NAR projecting 1.45 million housing starts, the bulk of them for single-family units. These new homes could provide much-needed inventory, helping to ease the supply issues that have plagued the market.

Despite the positive outlook for 2025, challenges remain. While mortgage rates are expected to decline, they are still relatively high compared to historical norms, and inventory levels are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This ongoing supply shortage will continue to place upward pressure on prices, making homeownership more difficult for some buyers. Additionally, the affordability gap between different regions will continue to vary, with some markets remaining out of reach for many potential buyers.

Nonetheless, the prospect of lower mortgage rates has sparked optimism in the housing market. A stabilizing rate at 6% could provide the necessary boost to allow more buyers to enter the market, driving both demand for existing homes and new construction. This change would also give homebuilders more confidence to move forward with projects, further stimulating the economy.

The ongoing reduction in mortgage rates, alongside a resilient economy, could help buyers overcome affordability barriers, especially in more moderately priced markets. As 2025 approaches, all eyes will be on mortgage rates and the broader housing market to see if these predictions hold true and bring about a much-needed shift toward recovery.

CPI Data Confirms Fed’s December Rate Cut Path

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, meeting economist expectations.
– Core inflation remains elevated at 3.3% annually, driven by higher shelter and service costs.
– Markets now strongly anticipate a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released November inflation data on Wednesday, showing consumer prices increased 2.7% year-over-year. This uptick from October’s 2.6% rise aligns with economist projections and solidifies expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its December meeting.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3%, the largest gain since April. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% annually for the fourth consecutive month. Sticky inflation in core components such as shelter and services continues to challenge the Federal Reserve’s goal of achieving a 2% inflation target.

Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, commented on the persistence of core inflation, noting that it remains a concern but is unlikely to derail the anticipated rate cut. “We don’t expect it to persuade the Fed to skip another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting,” he stated.

Shelter Inflation Moderates, Food Costs Persist

Shelter inflation contributed nearly 40% of the monthly CPI increase, though the annual gain of 4.7% marked a deceleration from October’s 4.9%. Both rent and owners’ equivalent rent showed their smallest monthly increases since mid-2021, suggesting potential relief in housing costs.

Meanwhile, food prices remain a sticky category for inflation. The food index rose 0.4% month-over-month, with notable increases in categories like eggs, which surged 8.2% in November after declining in October. Energy prices also edged higher, rising 0.2% month-over-month, while apparel and personal care costs saw noticeable gains.

Market and Policy Implications

Financial markets reacted positively to the CPI report, as fears of an upside surprise were unfounded. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting increased to 97% following the release. However, economists remain cautious about potential inflationary pressures stemming from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs and corporate tax cuts.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted the Federal Reserve’s likely shift toward a more cautious approach after December. “We expect the Fed to move off autopilot in January, adopting a more cautious tone, and slowing its pace of cuts to just every other meeting,” Shah said.

As inflation trends remain in focus, the Federal Reserve’s decisions in the coming months will be critical in shaping the economic outlook for 2025.

Small-Cap Surge: Why the Russell 2000 Is Leading the Post-Election Market Rally

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In the weeks following the U.S. elections, a clear market leader has emerged: the Russell 2000. This index of small-cap stocks has outpaced major benchmarks such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, signaling a rotation in investor sentiment toward higher growth opportunities. As investors search for areas with the most potential, small-cap stocks are standing out as a prime destination for future growth.

Since November 6, the Russell 2000 has demonstrated a significant recovery, outpacing its larger-cap peers by a notable margin. Historically, small-cap stocks have been among the biggest beneficiaries of economic optimism, thanks to their reliance on U.S. domestic growth and their ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

IndexPerformance (Nov 6 – Nov 29)
Russell 2000 (RTY)+12.5%
S&P 500 (SPX)+6.8%
Dow Jones (INDU)+7.2%
Nasdaq Composite (CCMP)+5.9%

Why Investors Are Turning to Small Caps

Small-cap stocks are poised for the most growth in the current market environment. Here’s why they’re becoming a key focus for investors:

  1. Explosive Growth Potential: Smaller companies typically have more room to expand, making them attractive to investors seeking high returns during periods of economic recovery.
  2. Policy Favorability: Market participants are betting on pro-business policies, which are expected to stimulate domestic-focused companies.
  3. Valuation Advantages: After years of underperformance compared to large-cap tech stocks, many small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations, creating opportunities for long-term gains.
  4. Sector Diversity: The Russell 2000 spans a variety of sectors, including financials, energy, and consumer services, which are positioned to benefit from economic resilience.

The outperformance of the Russell 2000 reflects a broader trend: small caps are not only catching up but are also laying the groundwork for sustained growth. With the U.S. economy showing signs of stabilization and a renewed focus on innovation and entrepreneurship, small-cap stocks offer investors a rare chance to capitalize on their agility and growth prospects.

For investors looking to explore the potential of small-cap stocks and connect with the companies leading this charge, Noble Capital Markets is hosting its flagship event, NobleCon20, this week.

Starting tomorrow, December 2, NobleCon20 will bring together industry leaders, small-cap innovators, and investors for a one-of-a-kind event. Held over three days, the conference will feature:

  • Live Panels: Including a must-see AI panel headlined by Zack Kass, who will delve into cutting-edge advancements in artificial intelligence and their impact on markets.
  • A Shark Tank Experience: A live pitch competition judged by the ‘Sharks,’ offering insight into innovative small-cap ventures.
  • Networking Opportunities: Connect with executives, investors, and thought leaders from a range of industries.

Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting to diversify your portfolio, NobleCon20 provides an invaluable opportunity to gain insights into small-cap growth stories and identify market-leading opportunities.

Registration is still open for NobleCon20, and attendance is free for qualified investors. Don’t miss your chance to engage with small-cap executives and industry professionals who are shaping the future of the market.

Register now at NobleCon20.com to secure your spot at the premier small-cap event of the year.

As the Russell 2000’s recent performance demonstrates, small caps are positioned for growth in the current economic and market landscape. Investors looking to capitalize on this momentum should pay attention to the opportunities in this space.

With NobleCon20 starting tomorrow, now is the perfect time to immerse yourself in the small-cap story and discover the companies driving innovation and expansion. Join us and take the first step toward seizing the opportunities in this exciting segment of the market.

Noble Capital Markets and Stocktwits Announce Strategic Partnership

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

BOCA RATON, Fla., and NEW YORK, Nov. 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Noble Capital Markets (Noble), a full-service SEC / FINRA-registered broker-dealer dedicated exclusively to serving public and private middle market companies and their investors, and Stocktwits, the world’s leading social network for investors and traders, today announced a strategic partnership that will launch at NobleCon20, Noble’s 20th annual emerging growth equity conference, and extend into 2025 and beyond. This partnership brings together the unique strengths of both companies to amplify value for clients and subscribers.

As part of this collaboration, Stocktwits joins NobleCon20 as the exclusive social media partner, leveraging its extensive community to elevate the reach of presenting companies. Stocktwits will promote presenting company sessions and Q&As through targeted ads and push notifications, ensuring broader exposure to its 10 million users. This initiative is expected to significantly boost visibility for NobleCon’s presenting companies, connecting them to a larger audience and increasing engagement with potential investors.

“Partnering with Stocktwits aligns perfectly with our mission to provide emerging growth companies with the visibility and resources they deserve,” said Nico Pronk, Noble’s CEO. “With their extensive network and our robust research and capital markets experience, we are positioned to deliver a truly unique conference experience that will benefit both presenters and attendees.”

To further strengthen the event’s reach, select Stocktwits registered users will receive an exclusive discount to attend the in-person conference, featuring an AI-focused keynote panel, 80+ public and select private middle market company presentations, an evening networking hangar party, and a highlight event featuring three of the original “Sharks” from ABC’s Shark Tank. Further details about the event can be found at https://www.nobleconference.com/.

“We’re thrilled to announce our strategic partnership with the Noble team. We’ll begin with collaborating on NobleCon20 and Channelchek, but we’ll continue to partner on informative media that drives awareness for public companies” said Shiv Sharma, Stocktwits President & COO. “Our partnership will enable us to bring exciting and underfollowed growth opportunities directly to our active investor base, delivering content and insights that resonate deeply with our audience.”

Beyond NobleCon20, Stocktwits will also serve as a social media sponsor for Channelchek, Noble’s no-cost investor community. This expanded collaboration will include featuring Noble’s equity research on Stocktwits, which exceeds 200 million monthly page views from the most active investors who are deeply passionate about driving returns. Stocktwits will also refer select companies to be evaluated for Noble’s Company Sponsored Research Program.

As part of the partnership, Noble will feature Stocktwits on Channelchek, introducing companies to Stocktwits’ expanding suite of tools designed to elevate investor visibility, which includes Ads, Sponsored Articles, Featured Posts, Newsletters, Live Earnings Calls, Press Release Optimization, and premium video content, all tailored to increase investor engagement and broaden market reach.

About Noble Capital Markets

Established in 1984, Noble Capital Markets is an SEC / FINRA registered full-service investment bank and advisory firm with an award-winning research team and proprietary investor distribution platform.   We deliver middle market expertise to entrepreneurs, corporations, financial sponsors, and investors. Over the past 40 years, Noble has raised billions of dollars for companies and published more than 45,000 equity research reports.

About Channelchek

Noble launched www.channelchek.com in 2018 – an investor community dedicated exclusively to public emerging growth and their industries. Channelchek is the first service to offer institutional-quality research to the public, for FREE at every level without a subscription. More than 7,000 public emerging growth companies are listed on the site, and content including equity research, webcasts, and industry articles.

About Stocktwits

Stocktwits is the premier social media platform dedicated to investors and traders. With an active community of over 10 million users, Stocktwits has established itself as a leading voice in the investing world. Driven by the mission to help investors enhance their returns, Stocktwits offers a rich ecosystem of community interaction, data, content, and tools that empower investors to connect, learn, profit, and have fun in the process.

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