In a strategic move to bolster its position in the North American specialty food market, Lassonde Industries Inc. has announced an agreement to acquire Summer Garden Food Manufacturing for $235 million USD. This acquisition marks a significant step in Lassonde’s ambition to become a more diversified food and beverage powerhouse in North America.
Summer Garden, operated by The Zidian Group and based in Boardman, Ohio, is a renowned manufacturer and distributor of premium sauces and condiments. With a workforce of approximately 200 employees, the company has built a strong reputation for its high-quality products, including pasta sauces, BBQ sauces, dipping sauces, and dressings. The acquisition brings popular brands such as Gia Russa, Little Italy in the Bronx, and G Hughes – a leader in the sugar-free BBQ sauce segment – under the Lassonde umbrella.
The deal structure includes an initial payment of $235 million USD at closing, with the potential for additional payments of up to $45 million USD over the next three years, contingent on meeting certain financial targets and conditions. This approach aligns the interests of both parties and incentivizes continued growth and performance.
Financially, the acquisition appears promising for Lassonde. Summer Garden reported impressive figures for the 12-month period ending May 2024, with sales of $148 million USD and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $27.9 million USD. Lassonde expects the transaction to be accretive to margins and earnings, even before considering potential synergies. The company also anticipates that the acquisition’s internal rate of return will exceed its weighted-average cost of capital, indicating a sound financial investment.
Moreover, the transaction structure allows Lassonde to benefit from tax deductibility, generating an estimated $30 million USD in net present value. Post-acquisition, Lassonde projects its pro forma net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to remain under 2.20 to 1, providing ample room for future strategic initiatives.
Nathalie Lassonde, CEO and Vice-Chair of Lassonde’s board of directors, emphasized the strategic importance of the acquisition, stating that it supports the company’s ambition to diversify and grow its specialty food activities. She also highlighted the cultural alignment between the two family-owned businesses, noting their shared entrepreneurial spirit and commitment to stakeholders.
For Summer Garden, this acquisition ensures the continuation of its legacy under the stewardship of a larger, like-minded organization. Thomas Zidian, President and CEO of Summer Garden, expressed confidence that the partnership would benefit customers through enhanced products and offer employees new opportunities for development and advancement.
The acquisition is expected to close within 30 to 45 days, subject to regulatory clearance and other closing conditions. Lassonde plans to finance the transaction through its available credit facilities, demonstrating its strong financial position and commitment to growth.
This move by Lassonde Industries represents a significant consolidation in the specialty food sector and aligns with broader trends of larger food and beverage companies expanding their portfolios through strategic acquisitions. By integrating Summer Garden’s products, brands, and manufacturing capabilities, Lassonde is poised to enhance its market presence, diversify its product offerings, and potentially realize operational synergies.
As the food industry continues to evolve, with consumers increasingly seeking premium, specialized products, this acquisition positions Lassonde to capitalize on these trends and reinforce its status as a leading player in the North American food and beverage landscape.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Development Deals. FAT Brands has announced a number of new development deals. We view these announcements positively as they highlight the continued interest by existing and new franchisees for the Company’s portfolio of restaurant themes. The new deals add to the existing 1,100+ pipeline of new locations.
Co-Branding Deal. FAT Brands announced a new development deal to open 40 new franchised Fatburger locations across Northern California in partnership with franchisee California Burger, Inc. Fatburger will be added to 40 existing Round Table Pizza locations over the next 10 years with the first location set to open in 2024.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
NobleCon19. FAT Brands Chairman Andy Wiederhorn presented at NobleCon19. Highlights included a review of organic growth, the potential monetization of Twin Peaks, and the manufacturing facility. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/fat-brands-noblecon19-replay.
Organic Growth. With 96 restaurants opened through the end of 3Q, FAT Brands remains on track to open between 130-150 new locations in 2023. The organic pipeline exceeds some 1,100 locations, with 145 already lined up for opening in 2024. Organic growth alone could generate an additional $50 million of annual adjusted EBITDA by 2025.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Instacart experienced a red-hot debut on the public markets as shares soared 40% in its first day of trading. The grocery delivery pioneer opened at $42 per share on the Nasdaq exchange, well above its IPO price of $30.
The opening trade valued Instacart at nearly $14 billion, up from the $10 billion valuation set by its IPO pricing on Monday. Demand from investors seeking exposure to the future of grocery commerce drove the shares sharply higher out of the gate.
Trading volume was heavy early on, with over 18 million shares changing hands in the first 30 minutes. The stock traded as high as $47.57 at its peak, showcasing strong appetite for the newly minted public company.
Instacart (CART) raised $420 million through the IPO by selling 14.1 million shares, representing just 8% of its total outstanding shares. Existing shareholders also sold 7.9 million shares in the offering for liquidity.
The blockbuster debut delivered significant returns for IPO participants during a volatile time for tech stocks. But Instacart’s valuation remains below the $39 billion mark it reached at the height of pandemic demand in 2021, reflecting more measured recent tech valuations.
Still, the strong first day pop is a promising sign for Instacart as it embarks on the public market journey. The company priced its offering conservatively to allow room for an impressive inaugural rally.
The offering adds Instacart to the ranks of publicly traded ecommerce innovators disrupting traditional retail models. It joins the likes of DoorDash, Uber, and Amazon in leveraging technology to unlock the potential of online grocery delivery.
Instacart is at the forefront of transforming the $1 trillion grocery industry through its on-demand digital marketplace. Its platform connects customers with personal shoppers who handle orders from partner grocers and deliver items in as fast as an hour.
Founded in 2012 by an Amazon veteran, Instacart was early to recognize the coming wave of grocery ecommerce. The company scaled rapidly when the pandemic accelerated adoption of online ordering and delivery.
Instacart seized its first-mover advantage to emerge as a leader in the space. It has partnered with prominent national, regional, and local grocers to build a retail network covering over 85% of U.S. households.
The company aligned with shifting consumer preferences for convenience and digital experiences. Busy lifestyles and smartphone ubiquity make grocery delivery a killer app of modern ecommerce.
Instacart smartly invested to expand services like fast unstaffed delivery and self-service pickup. Its Instacart Ads platform also lets brands promote products through sponsored listings.
The company rapidly grew revenue to over $7 billion in 2021 during the pandemic-driven surge. More recently it has focused on boosting profitability as demand normalizes post-Covid.
Instacart generated $14 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2021. Its net revenue neared $2 billion, doubling from 2020. But losses have narrowed dramatically since the company turned EBITDA positive last year.
As the first major tech IPO of 2023, Instacart’s trading provides a blueprint for startups and venture investors awaiting public debuts this year. The initial reception indicates persistent investor appetite for innovative tech names with strong growth narratives.
The blockbuster debut opens an exciting new chapter for Instacart and the future of digital grocery. Its first trading day validated Instacart’s pioneering business model and resilient growth prospects.
Consumer foods giant J.M. Smucker has agreed to purchase bakery company Hostess Brands for $5.6 billion in a major food industry acquisition. The deal will expand Smucker’s snacks and sweets portfolio with the addition of iconic Hostess brands such as Twinkies, Ding Dongs, and Donettes.
Under the terms of the acquisition, Smucker will pay $34.25 per share for Hostess in a cash and stock deal. This represents a premium of about 20% over Hostess’ closing share price on Friday. Smucker will also take on approximately $900 million of Hostess’ debt.
For Smucker, the deal provides an avenue for growth as demand for its key categories like jam and peanut butter has slowed. Twinkies and other Hostess snacks can tap into rising consumer appetites for nostalgic comfort foods. The acquisition also boosts Smucker’s presence in the in-store bakery section and convenience stores.
Meanwhile, Hostess Brands has faced slipping sales volumes after raising prices to offset inflationary pressures. As growth stalled, larger rivals circled with takeover interest to tap into the strong consumer awareness of brands like Twinkies. Hostess ultimately opted for Smucker’s buyout offer.
The transaction comes amid a wave of deal-making in the food industry, as companies look to acquisitions for expansion. With the Hostess deal, Smucker follows in the footsteps of rivals like Campbell Soup, Mars, and Unilever which have all acquired brands in recent months to spur growth.
The Hostess acquisition is expected to close in January 2024 after customary approvals. It will add an estimated $1.4 billion in Hostess net sales to Smucker’s portfolio upon completion.
Take a look at Fat Brands Inc., a leading global franchising company that acquires, markets and develops fast casual and casual dining restaurant concepts around the world.
Blockchain Beyond Cryptocurrency: The Potential of Distributed Ledger Technology
Does blockchain have a future beyond crypto? Since its beginning as the underlying technology for Bitcoin (BTC) and later other cryptocurrencies, blockchain has been the necessary, behind-the-scenes, engine that allow these fintech currencies to function. Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethereum (ETH), and even the 18 G20 countries developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) need blockchain to exist.
But what non-finance industries are being impacted or will be disrupted by blockchain? It is not with exaggeration to say blockchain has the power to revolutionize various industries and redefine everyday transactions, manage data, and establish trust. Long-term investing requires knowledge of current trends and where the future may take them. Below we explore many of the possibilities of blockchain aside from cryptocurrency and delve into its promising future.
What is Blockchain?
At its core, blockchain is a decentralized (no single control) and immutable (unable to be changed) ledger that records activity across multiple computers. This distributed character replaces the need for institutional intermediaries to ensure transparency, security, and efficiency. A person or an entity can function, even across borders directly, without the need for a middleman. Verification of activity is recorded and remains a part of a blockchain ledger.
Uses beyond cryptocurrency, or the speculative investment that crypto and non-fungible tokens (NFT) have become, include health care, finance, voting, real estate titles, and smart communities.
Health Care
The HIPAA Privacy Rule sets national standards to protect individuals’ medical records and other identifiable health information. It applies to health plans, healthcare clearinghouses, and healthcare providers that conduct certain medical transactions electronically. The purpose is to keep data ownership from improperly being passed and to maintain privacy in the industry. Current centralized systems are not able to meet the many needs of patients, health service providers, insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Blockchain technology enables a decentralized system for access control of medical records where all stakeholders’ interests are protected.
Blockchain systems not only allow healthcare service providers to securely share patients’ medical records but patients may also track who has accessed their records and determine who is authorized to do so. If blockchain-driven, all transactions can become transparent to the patient.
And blockchain-powered interoperability can enable the seamless sharing of medical data between healthcare organizations, improving patient care, research, and drug development.
Supply Chain Management
Complex global supply chains involve numerous stakeholders, some sending, others receiving, and others verifying the source of food or products. Verifying the authenticity and improving traceability of products can be a challenging task. Blockchain’s ability to create an immutable record of every transaction and movement along the supply chain enables transparency and accountability. A company will be able to securely track the origin, manufacturing process, and movement of goods. Consumers can be equipped with verified information, among other benefits, this will increase trust and reduce the risk of receiving counterfeit products.
Storing information regarding movement on a blockchain improves integrity, accountability and traceability. For example, IBM’s Food Trust uses a blockchain system to track food items from the field to retailers. The participants in the food supply chain record transactions in the shared blockchain, which simplifies keeping track.
Entertainment Products
As technology has allowed greater reproduction and distribution, including music and art, blockchain may provide creators with more control over their work. The whole entertainment industry may undergo a significant transformation with blockchain technology. Artists can tokenize their efforts, creating a digital certificate of ownership that can be bought, sold, and shared on blockchain platforms. This will enable artists to have tight control over their intellectual property, receive fair compensation, and even establish a direct connection with their followers. Beyond ownership infringement, blockchain can facilitate transparent royalty distribution, this could ensure that artists receive their rightful earnings without an intermediary and the cost that comes with anyone getting in the middle of a transaction.
The Energy Sector
Blockchain is likely to play a transformative role in all forms of energy. As renewable energy sources continue their trend, blockchain can enable peer-to-peer energy trading. Individuals and organizations will be able to directly exchange surplus energy with those expecting an energy deficit. This could create a decentralized energy market.
Smart contracts executed on the blockchain can automatically verify and settle transactions, ensuring transparency. This democratization of energy, if broadly implemented, could accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices, provide energy where needed, and reduce waste.
Governments
While the government is often the intermediary that the blockchain makes less needed or unneeded, recognizing the potential of blockchain to enhance transparency and efficiency in public services may become its greatest use. Land registries, taxation, voting systems, and identity certainty can all be improved through blockchain’s tracking and tamper-resistant design. Immutable records of land ownership can reduce disputes and increase trust in property transactions. Digital identities stored on a blockchain can streamline processes such as passport verification and border control, making them more secure and efficient. Blockchain-based voting systems have the potential to eliminate voter fraud, ensuring fair and transparent elections.
Potential
Much of what is described above has either barely been implemented or has not been put to use. This is a period in any technological advancement when most long-term investors would like to be involved. Efficiencies and improved products are poised to help the industries mentioned, and pure blockchain companies, large and small, can benefit from developing uses for their technology.
Despite its potential, blockchain technology still faces challenges. Scalability, energy consumption, and regulatory frameworks require further development and refinement. However, ongoing research and collaborations among businesses, academia, industry, and policymakers are actively finding avenues around these concerns, driving the maturation of blockchain technology.
Take Away
Blockchain is still in its infancy, and industries are just becoming aware of its power to help them. As the paradigm shifts, it could become a technology businesses could not imagine doing without. Blockchain’s decentralized, transparent, and secure nature makes it a powerful tool for revolutionizing healthcare, supply chain management, entertainment, governing, and energy sectors. As the technology evolves, we can expect innovative use and widespread adoption of blockchain that serves to elevate trust, efficiency, and transparency. And maybe the now-developed cryptocurrencies will survive within these changes.
Investors Have Far Fewer Reservations Against Investing in Leisure
Memorial Day Weekend in the U.S. marks the beginning of the travel season. After a few years on hiatus, as a result of Covid-19 restrictions, travel in 2023 is expected to surpass pre-pandemic numbers. While many investors are focused on the debt ceiling, less accommodative monetary policy, and looking for an entry point to invest in AI technology, post-pandemic travel plans are increasing – and the returns of some companies reflect this. One segment of the travel sector has benefitted and provided double-digit YTD stock returns. Below we discuss this segment and the potential for the future.
Travel Booking Stocks
When was the last time you went to an airline website to book a flight with them, or even a hotel for that matter? Most of us now find ourselves on a booking website when we’re planning a vacation. On these platforms, we can compare prices more easily, and if we’d like, add on extras like a car rental. Some even have proprietary package deals.
Technological advancements have created even greater efficiencies among booking and vacation travel package companies. Other positives for growth are pent-up demand, diversified revenue streams, and valuations still considered attractive. These all provide a backdrop and potential for the medium and long-term growth of the travel booking industry.
The chart above is a year-to-date sampling of examples of stocks in this leisure segment that have outperformed the overall market (S&P 500). Below, from weakest performer to strongest, are details of each company’s unique business, market cap, and other interesting investor information:
Expedia (EXPE) is a global travel company that provides a wide range of travel services, including flights, hotels, car rentals, and vacation packages.
This is a large cap stock with a current market cap of $14.33 billion, at $96.85 per share.
The company is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Booking Holdings (BKNG) is a travel company that owns a number of popular travel brands, including Booking.com, Priceline.com, and Kayak.com.
This is a large-cap stock with a current market cap of $97.61 billion, at $45.41 per share.
The company is headquartered in Norwalk, CT.
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) is a leisure travel company that provides travel services and other products to under-served cities in the U.S. This includes flights between vacation destinations. As of February 1, 2023, Allegiant operated a fleet of 122 Airbus A320 series aircraft.
This is a small cap stock with a current market cap of $1.85 billion, at a price of $99.96 per share.
The company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Travelzoo (TZOO) has a unique business model as it operates as an Internet media company that provides travel, entertainment, and deals from travel and leisure businesses worldwide. Publication products include the Travelzoo Top 20 email newsletter, Travelzoo emails, Travelzoo Network, Travelzoo mobile applications, Jack’s Flight Club website, Jack’s Flight Club mobile applications, and Jack’s Flight Club newsletters.
The year-to-date performance of TZOO is 10x that of the S&P 500.
In a research report dated April 28, 2023, Michael Kupinski, the senior research analyst for media and entertainment, had this to say about Travelzoo, “We believe that there is a disconnect with investors and the improved fundamentals at the company. Near current levels, the TZOO shares appear compelling, trading at 5.3 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 cash flow estimate or below the low end of the company’s 10-year and 15-year average trading ranges.” See the report here.
Current market cap is $133.05 million, at $8.69 per share.
The company is headquartered in New York, NY.
Image: “This Memorial Day weekend could be the busiest at airports since 2005” – AAA Newsroom
Take Away
Travel booking companies are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the overall leisure industry. Small cap travel booking companies are often more nimble and innovative than larger companies; this could give them an advantage in the travel booking market.
People are spending more money on travel. Companies like those mentioned above welcome the opening of China, allowing citizens to travel and return. In addition to the overall post-pandemic volume of business, travelers are spending more money on trips than they did before the restrictions.
Noble Capital Markets SPACtrac Report Thursday, March 02, 2023
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
The Deal. Better World Acquisition Corp. will be merging with Heritage Distilling Company, Inc. in a deal that will bring Heritage Distilling public. The deal, which values Heritage Distilling at an enterprise value of $122.2 million, provides growth capital to achieve Heritage Distilling’s aim to become the leading national craft spirits company.
The Target. Founded in 2012, Heritage Distilling is a leading, fast-growing distiller of innovative premium brands, with a history of award winning, innovative products. The Company is expanding its wholesale footprint nationwide in conjunction with RNDC, the second largest spirits distributor in the U.S., while its proprietary Tribal Beverage Network provides the potential of developing a “local” presence across the nation that will generate high margin, tax advantaged recurring revenue license streams.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Overview: Entertainment and Leisure stocks have had a good start to the New Year, but the better performance has not erased the disaster that was 2022. We believe that stocks appear to be baking in a mild economic downturn, a soft landing, so to speak. Given that we are skeptic of the conventional thought, we take a cautious stance regarding the recent lift in valuations and encourage investors to take an accumulation approach.
Entertainment:Bowlero on a roll. The Noble Entertainment Index performed well, up 1.5% in the last 12 months, compared with negative returns for the S&P 500 (-7.1%). Although there were broad economic challenges over the past year, entertainment companies benefited from the general public’s return to “normal” following the COVID pandemic. We believe that in-person experiential entertainment recovery is still in its early stage and should continue into 2024.
Gaming: Looking for value in the rubble.The Noble Gaming Index is down 53.1% in the past year, well below the S&P 500, down 7.1%. But, recently, the Noble Gaming Index increased 12.9% in the last quarter, outperforming the 3.2% increase in the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. A reflex bounce? Short squeeze? Or, were the shares oversold? We encourage investors to play it safe.
Esports: Motorsport Games revs its engine. The company was full steam ahead in investing in its new product launches in 2023, but it was running out of cash. Fortunately, a couple of favorable moves to add liquidity set the stock soaring, up 1,600% in one day, creating further opportunities to raise cash. Now, flush with cash, investors look toward the product rollouts.
Leisure: Travel to new heights. The U.S. Travel Association updated its 2023 outlook, projecting a resilient domestic leisure travel market. Consumers appear eager to splurge on travel, in spite of the economic headwinds. We focus on one of our favorite internet media plays, Travelzoo. The company recently updated Fourth Quarter 2022 guidance with revenues expected to be roughly $18.5 million, a strong 31% increase year over year.
Overview
Have economic prospects improved?
The Entertainment & Leisure industries performed better since the beginning of the year, providing some relief to the downturn that investors suffered in 2022. As Figure #1 Entertainment 12 Month Trailing Stock Performance highlights, the Entertainment and Leisure Indices are still recovering and many have yet to offset the 2022 declines, except for the Entertainment stocks. The Entertainment stocks not only have performed well in the first quarter, but have beat the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index over the past year. The Noble Entertainment Index is up a modest 1.5% in the past year, better than the general market’s 7.1% decline. It is important to note that the Noble Indices are market cap weighted. As such, not all stocks reflected the favorable relative performance.
What is driving the improved stock performance in the latest quarter? We believe that investors have become more positive about the economic outlook, with conventional wisdom now anticipating a soft economic landing or a mild economic recession. This is a shift toward an optimistic tone from one that anticipated a severe economic recession. The Federal Reserve caused the dire outlook. The Fed signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is arrested, in spite of the adverse impact on the economy and jobs. But, since then, conventional wisdom on the economy has brightened as inflation seems to have subsided. The more favorable economic outlook is exemplified by a Wall Street firm that decreased the risk of an economic recession in 2023 by a sizable 25%.
We tend to be skeptics and conservative. As such, we tend not to buy into strength. Our view is that the stocks were oversold and reflected recessionary type valuations. But, have the economic prospects really improved that much? We encourage investors to take an accumulation approach, focusing on some of our favorite stocks highlighted in this report, including Bowlero, Codere Online Luxembourg, Engine Gaming and Media, and Travelzoo.
Figure #1 Entertainment 12 Month Trailing Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Entertainment
Bowlero on a roll
The Noble Entertainment Index performed well, up 1.5% in the last 12 months, compared with negative returns for the S&P 500 down 7.1%. Although there were broad economic challenges over the past year, entertainment companies benefited from the general public’s return to “normal” following the COVID pandemic. We believe that the trend toward social gathering and in-person activities are helping to offset broader macroeconomic headwinds. While some industries received a boost during late 2020 and 2021 when consumers were spending stimulus checks on online shopping, the recovery for in-person entertainment has been more recent. In our view, the recovery in experiential, in-person entertainment appears to be gaining traction and the recovery could continue into 2024.
As Figure #2 Entertainment Revenue Growth illustrates, virtually all of the experiential entertainment companies reported strong revenue growth in the latest reported quarter, (the calendar third quarter end September 2022). One of the examples of the in-person recovery is in bowling centers, in general, and Bowlero, specifically. The company recently announced that it eclipsed $1 billion in Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) revenue as of December 31, 2022, which included 48% same store sales growth over the prior year. Additionally, Bowlero added 40 bowling centers over the past 18 months as it continues to successfully execute on its roll-up strategy. As revenues have improved, so too have margins. As Figure #3 Entertainment EBITDA Marginsillustrates, Bowlero delivered industry leading margins in the latest reported quarter at 24.8%.
Bowlero is on a roll. With the BOWL shares up roughly 50% in the past 12 months, the shares have outperformed both the Noble Entertainment Index up 1.5%, as well as the broader market, as measured by the S&P 500, which decreased -7.1%. In spite of the favorable fundamental tailwind, the shares trade in line with its experiential entertainment peers. Figure #4 Entertainment Comparables illustrates that the BOWL shares trade at 9.7 times Enterprise Value to our estimated 2023 adj. EBITDA, below the peer average of 10.7 times, despite the company’s industry leading fundamentals. Given its favorable fundamental outlook, prospects for enhanced revenue and cash flow growth through acquisitions and favorable internal growth, and compelling stock valuation, the BOWL shares lead our list for favorites in the Entertainment industry.
Figure #2 Entertainment Revenue Growth
Source: Company 10Qs
Figure #3 Entertainment EBITDA Margins
Source: Company 10Qs
Figure #4 Entertainment Comparables
Source: Company filings and Noble estimates
Gaming
Looking for value in the rubble
The Noble Gaming Index is down 53.1% in the past year, well below the S&P 500, down 7.1%. In our view, the poor performance of Gaming stocks was the result of investors trying to take risk off the table. Many Gaming companies are still in developmental stages, with high marketing and customer acquisition costs. As such, many in the industry are unprofitable and rely on the balance sheets to fund operations. Before Covid, these companies benefited from the easy money policies and favorable capital markets, which many relied on for funding. But, with the recent sharp rise in interest rates and difficult general market conditions to raise capital, the music has stopped. Gaming stock valuations are now more scrutinized, in an environment of increasing cost of capital. As such, we believe industry players that are already profitable, and those with little to no debt and ample cash on the balance sheet are best positioned for to lead the industry.
Our focus is on the shares of Codere Online Luxembourg, CDRO. The CDRO shares are down 42.4% in the last year, underperforming the S&P 500’s -7.1% return. However, despite a tough 12-month period, the CDRO shares outperformed the Noble Gaming Index, which dropped 53.1%. We believe that the relative outperformance of the CDRO shares over the past year reflects its better financial position than most of its peers. Most recently, the Noble Gaming Index improved, as illustrated in Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance. The Noble Gaming Index increased 12.9%, outperforming the 3.2% increase in the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. A reflex bounce? Short squeeze? Or, were the shares oversold? It appears to be all the above for many of the stocks in the index. The largest gains were from companies that appeared to be struggling and had favorable news. We believe that investing in struggling companies with limited access to capital is a dangerous place to be.
In terms of Codere Online Luxembourg, the fundamentals of the company appear favorable. Codere Online’s cash burn has been within expectations and the company had a strong cash balance of €72 million and virtually no long-term debt as of September 30, 2022. As such, the company appears positioned to continue executing its growth strategy in Latin America, which for the time being consists of broadening its presence in key markets such as Mexico and Columbia, and aggressively expanding in Argentina.
The company’s growth could be bolstered if Brazil begins regulating sports betting in 2023. Importantly, Entain CEO Jette Nygaard-Anderson, recently stated that she expects Brazil to complete process of regulating sports betting in 2023, citing new administration of President Lula. In summary, Codere Online is distinguished from many of its peers, with an established foothold in key Latin American markets, flush with cash to penetrate existing markets and enter new ones. It has the ability to become the industry leader in many of its markets.
Near current levels, the iGaming industry peer group is trading at 5.0 times Enterprise Value to 2023 revenues, illustrated in Figure #6 Gaming Comparables. Codere Online Luxemburg (CDRO) is one of our favorite plays in the iGaming industry due to several factors. As mentioned above, the company has virtually no long-term debt and €72 million in cash, as of September 30, 2022. We believe that the company has a favorable runway to reach cash flow breakeven while continuing to fund its expansion in the meantime. Furthermore, in our view, given its ability to invest in its developing markets, the company appears to have the ability to become the preeminent online gambling leader in many Latin American markets. Finally, the CDRO shares appear compelling, trading near 2.6 times expected 2023 revenue, well below peers. As a result, we view the CDRO shares as among our favorite online gambling plays, with the shares rated Outperform with $9 price target.
Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #6 Gaming Comparables
Source: Company filings and Noble estimates
Esports
Motorsport revs its engine
The Noble Esports Index was down 53% over the past year, underperforming the broader market, which was down 7%, as as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Not unlike many other emerging industries, Esports has been battered by macroeconomic headwinds over the past year. Investors are placing more importance on companies that are generating positive cash flow, rather than speculating on future profitability, given recessionary concerns and elevated interest rates. While the Esports industry has shown favorable trends in the number of viewers and hours watched, many companies are still burning cash and may need to raise additional capital. Total hours watched of esports content was up 40% in Q3 of 2022, illustrated in Figure #7 Esports Viewership.
The best performing stock in the Esports index was HUYA, which only declined by 9.7% on a TTM basis. Huya is the largest Esports live streaming platform in China and recently expanded into a variety of real-time events. Huya benefits from the favorable growth trends of the Esports and live streaming industries, as it does not rely on the popularity of a single game or tournament. The worst performing stock in the Esports index is Esports Entertainment Group (GMBL), which declined 97.2% on a TTM basis. The company burned through its cash and had limited access to additional capital.
In the latest quarter, however, the Noble Esports Index rebounded, up a strong 47.9%, as depicted in the earlier in Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance. The strength in the quarter was due to a relatively few number of stocks, including HUYA (up 135.8%) and two of our favorite plays, Motorsport Games (MSGM) and Engine Gaming and Media (GAME), which increased 68.9% and 149.8%, respectively. In fact, Motorsport Games increased a stunning 1,618.8% with a trading day following news of a debt for equity swap.
Motorsport Games revs its engine
Motorsport Games is a publisher of motorsport video games, with the rights to iconic racing franchises such as NASCAR and 24 Hour of LeMans. The company recently completed a debt for equity swap which led to a surprisingly strong increase in the stock valuation. This allowed the company to complete several direct offerings, eliminating all company debt and raising over $11 million in cash. The capital raise alleviated liquidity concerns, allowing the company to continue developing games. In our view, the launch of several games in 2023 should allow the company to swing toward cash flow break even. We have moved our rating to Market Perform given that the shares blew through our $9 price target. Our rating is under review as the company updates investors on its product rollout roadmap and the level of cash burn until it launches its upcoming products.
Engine Gaming & Media
Another one of our favorites is Engine Gaming & Media (GAME). Engine Gaming & Media is a multi-platform media company engaged in most aspects of the Esports industry. The company’s media division coordinates video access and advertising, data analytics, and connects advertisers to social influencers in the gaming industry. Figure #7 Esports Viewership and Figure #8 Esports Live Streaming are from Stream Hatchet, the company’s live streaming data and Esports analytics business.
The company reported its fiscal first quarter results on January 17, 2023, which beat our expectations. Notably, the company’s influencer and gaming analytics software as a service revenue, a key growth vehicle, grew revenue by a strong 34.6% on a year over year basis. In addition, the company plans to merge with GameSquare Esports, which it expects will provide scale and provide cost synergies. Management indicated that the combination should accelerate the new company’s path toward profitability. We plan to update our models as more details emerge regarding the upcoming merger.
Figure #9 Esports Comparables highlight the stock valuations in the Esports industry. The valuations of many of the stocks, including Motorsport Games and Engine Gaming and Media are in flux. As mentioned, Motorsport Games significantly improved its financial position with recent equity raises and debt for equity swaps. Engine Gaming and Media’s fundamentals likely will change with a planned merger. In our view, the latest quarter has been a watershed moment for these companies. We look forward toward reevaluating our models, ratings and price targets upon more details on the developments from the respective companies.
Figure #7 Esports Viewership
Source: Stream Hatchet
Figure #8 Esports Live Streaming
Source: Stream Hatchet
Figure #9 Esports Comparables
Source: Company filings and Noble estimates
Leisure
Travel to new heights
Once again, we focus on the travel industry in our Leisure section due to some favorable developments and outlook. Notably, the U.S. Travel Foundation forecasts an increase in travel spending in 2023 above both 2022 and 2019 levels. This would indicate that the travel industry has fully recovered from the depressed Covid impacted levels. Airline flights are full and there is high demand for hotels, even though pricing for those rooms are significantly higher. What is driving the demand and will it continue?
For the U.S., there are three factors influencing the relatively favorable outlook for the U.S. travel industry. The domestic leisure travel has been resilient in spite of higher gas prices, hotel rooms and airline tickets. A recent article from Forbes suggests that U.S. leisure travel is rebounding despite inflation as it is one area where people are willing to splurge. A second contributing factor to the favorable outlook is Business travel. Business travel is expected to be somewhat weaker in 2023 given the prospect of a mild economic recession in 2023. But, the business travel outlook is improved as a severe economic downturn appears less likely. The weak area has been international inbound travel to the U.S. We believe that this is a function of the strong U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies. On the flip side, international travel from the U.S. appears to be favorable given the U.S. dollar strength.
We believe that the inflationary trends, higher airline fares and hotel rates, as well as sluggish international travel, all have prompted travelers to seek travel deals. Consequently, one of our favorite plays on the travel industry, Travelzoo, has seen fundamental improvement. As an internet media company, its business is derived from its advertisers and travel partners to offer travel deals to its customers. This is different from travel suppliers and online travel agencies that rely on travel demand. Notably, Travelzoo recently updated its fourth quarter revenue guidance to be roughly $18.5 million, an increase of a strong 31% year over year, in line with our forecast.
Travelzoo is one of our favorite plays for the recovering travel industry. The shares are down roughly 46% in the past year, which we believe could present an attractive entry point for investors. Since reaching lows in December near $4.11 per share, the TZOO shares have rallied, up roughly 25% since that time. In our view, the shares may have reacted to a recent merger involving its founder, Ralph Bartel. The merger brought with it an influx of cash, but increased Mr. Bartels ownership of the company from slightly over 50% to over 60%. We view the move favorably as it provides increase liquidity for the company. Given the prospect for a favorable environment for travel deals, we view Travelzoo as among our favored ways to play the travel industry and the subsequent improved advertising from its travel partners. We rate the shares Outperform with a $9 price target.
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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Will Russia Make the EU an Acceptable Counter Offer?
On Sunday, OPEC+ voted to maintain the previous level of output. This is known in OPEC vernacular as a “rollover,” it will allow the group time to experience and assess the market impact of the price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian oil. The $60 EU price cap is scheduled to begin Monday, December 5th.
Otherwise, it will be a quiet week in terms of data and Fed governor speeches. After a flurry of talks out of Fed executives last week, mostly pointing to a tapering of increases, the Fed is now in a blackout period until after the December 13-14 meeting and announcement.
Monday 12/5
9:45 AM ET, PMI Composite Final Consensus Outlook A little less contraction is the call for the PMI Service’s November final, at a consensus of 46.3 versus 46.1 at mid-month.
10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders are seen rising to a 0.7 percent gain in October. This would follow a 0.4 percent gain in September. The upward adjustment is in part due to Durable Goods orders for October, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report. Durable Goods rose 1.0 percent in the month, which was stronger than expected. Factory Orders are a true leading indicator of future economic activity.
10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Industries has been slow, having reported 54.4 in October and expectations of 53.5 for November.
Tuesday 12/6
8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods and Services, a deficit of $80.0 billion is expected in October for total goods and services, which would compare with a $73.3 billion deficit in September. Advance data on the goods side of October’s report showed a more than $7 billion deepening in the deficit.
Wednesday 12/7
7:00 AM ET, MBA Mortgage Applications are expected to show that the composite index down 0.8%, the purchase index has gained 3.8%, and the refinance index is down 12.9%. The MBA compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction, along with related industries that are impacted by a changing housing market.
8:30 AM ET, Productivity and Costs for third-quarter are expected to show non-farm productivity rising 0.4 percent versus a scant 0.3 percent annualized gain in the first estimate. Unit labor costs, which slowed from 8.9 percent in the second quarter to 3.5 percent in the first estimate for the third quarter, are expected to rise at a 3.3 percent rate in the second estimate.
10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status report. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
3:00 PM ET Consumer credit is expected to increase $27.3 billion in October versus a $25.0 billion increase in September. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and signal future spending patterns. The report includes credit cards, vehicle loans, and student loans; mortgages are not included.
Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy’s goods and services. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Both are followed as indicators of future inflationary trends
Thursday 12/8
8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the December 3 week are expected to come in at a 228,000 four-week moving average, versus 225,000 in the prior week. Employment is one of the Fed’s mandates; as such, any number that significantly varies from consensus could alter the market’s thinking.
10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index was 50.2 in October; the ISM Manufacturing Index has been gradually slowing to nearly breakeven. November’s consensus is 49.9.
10:00 AM ET, Construction spending is expected to fall 0.2 percent in October. This would be dramatic relative to September’s modest 0.2 percent gain.
10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s balance sheet is a weekly report presenting a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. The report is officially named Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, otherwise known as the “H.4.1” report; investors have taken a recent interest in this weekly report as it shows if the Fed is on track with quantitative tightening plans.
Friday 12/9
8:30 AM ET, Producer Price Index or PPI, after moderating in October, PPI is expected to rise 0.2 percent on the month in November and 7.2 percent on the year. These would compare with 0.2 and 8.0 percent in October, which were both lower than expected. When excluding food and energy, prices are expected to also rise 0.2 percent on the month and 5.9 percent on the year.
10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to remain unchanged at 56.8 after a rebound in November’s final report.
10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories (second estimate for October) is expected to be unchanged from the first estimate at 0.8%.
What Else
The focus until mid-month is likely to be how interest rate markets trade with a new sense that the Fed is slowing its tightening pace. Also in high focus this week, markets are expected to pay attention to how oil prices play out with the EU plan and perhaps a forthcoming Russian proposal.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
3Q22 Results. FAT Brands reported 3Q22 revenue of $103.2 million, up from $102.8 million in the second quarter, and compared with $29.8 million in 3Q21. The increased revenue reflects the 2021 acquisitions. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $24.6 million in the quarter, down from $29.5 million in 2Q22. Net loss for the quarter was $23.5 million, or $1.42 per share and adjusted net loss was $16.3 million, or $0.98 per share. We had projected revenue of $104.3 million and a net loss of $14.9 million, or $0.90 per share.
Expanding Organic Growth Opportunities. FAT reported another 38 restaurants opened in the third quarter with over 100 opened year-to-date. Management is expecting an additional 25 units to open in 4Q22. The pipeline now exceeds 1,000 units, which will add some $60 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA once opened.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Floridians Can Soon Stop at Convenience Stores for Milk, Bread, and Cannabis
Do you use Circle K as a convenience store or a gas station? How about marijuana dispensary?
There is something new afoot at the Circle Ks in Florida, and it may forever change the medical marijuana dispensary, business model. Today, Green Thumb (GTBIF), a national cannabis consumer goods company, announced plans to expand its medical, retail footprint in Florida. It’s doing this through a lease agreement with Circle K convenience stores, where it expects to launch and test its RISE Express dispensary brand at ten Florida locations.
Green Thumb Founder and CEO Ben Kovler is very positive about the potential, “The opening of RISE Express stores at Circle K locations is a game-changer. Convenience is a strong channel in retail, and people want more access to cannabis,” said Kovler. “The new RISE Express model is a huge step forward in making it easier and more efficient for patients to purchase high-quality cannabis as part of their everyday routine when stopping by their local convenience store.”
The products available at these retail stores will come from the company’s new 28-acre cultivation facility in Ocala, FL. Green Thumb entered the Florida market in 2018 and currently owns and operates medical cannabis retail stores in many parts of the state.
Potential for Growth
Florida state marijuana laws allow for use with a medical marijuana card but prohibit recreational use. According to the Florida Department of Health, over 700,000 Floridians are currently registered active cardholders in the state’s medical marijuana program.
The deal is a first of its kind, given that legal marijuana has only been legally available in stand-alone dispensaries in the US and within pharmacies in countries such as Uruguay and Germany. This could help mainstream the substance as people stop as part of their normal routines to buy staples and daily necessities. No additional stop will be needed if you’re getting milk, bread, gas or other drugs like Tylenol.
Some Circle K locations have already ventured into cannabis-derived products that have recently become mainstream. This includes CBD oils and products and Delta-8 items, which can give consumers a mind-altering high, but currently fall through a legal loophole because it is derived from hemp.
Take Away
It was not long ago cannabinoids such as CBD could only be found at vape shops and other mom-and-pop locations. Today, we expect them to be carried in convenience stores and even at our local chain grocery.
Will medical marijuana also become widely available, so consumers don’t have to make a separate stop in their daily routines? Green Thumb and Circle K will be breaking new ground on this front beginning next year.
With more than 60 units, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, is the country’s leading company in adult nightclubs and sports bars/restaurants. Clubs in New York City, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Minneapolis, Denver, St. Louis, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Louisville, and other markets operate under brand names such as Rick’s Cabaret, XTC, Club Onyx, Vivid Cabaret, Jaguars Club, Tootsie’s Cabaret, Scarlett’s Cabaret, Diamond Cabaret, and PT’s Showclub. Sports bars/restaurants operate under the brand name Bombshells Restaurant & Bar.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Club and Bombshells Sales. RCI reported preliminary fourth quarter 2022 sales for the nightclubs and Bombshells restaurants of $70.0 million, a 28.8% year-over-year increase. Same store sales for the quarter declined 1.3% from the previous year, but were up 5.6% for all of fiscal 2022. This number does not include non-core operations. We projected full 4Q22 revenue of $68.5 million. We expect RCI to report full 4Q22 results by December 14th.
Segments. Nightclubs revenue was up 40.4% in the quarter, up 3.2% on a same store sales basis, to $56.1 million. Newly acquired clubs added $14.9 million of revenue in the quarter. Bombshells revenue declined 3.6% in the quarter and was off 13.3% on a SSS basis. The Arlington location accounted for $1.4 million of the segment’s $13.9 million of overall revenue.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
